PodcastFrom Dynasty Points
What To Expect From The 2026 NFL Rookie Class Heading Into Week 1
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 8 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 9, 2026
Published
Wed, September 9, 2026
21
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Eli StowersJeremiyah LoveJonah ColemanKenyon SadiqMakai LemonOmar Cooper Jr.Antonio WilliamsCarnell TateFernando MendozaJ.K. DobbinsJadarian PriceJordyn TysonMike EvansTony Pollard
Player analysis
Player insights
Antonio Williams
NegativeRole44:23
Jacob Sanderson views Antonio Williams as a rotational third receiver who is unlikely to be startable without an injury to teammates. The signing of Stefon Diggs complicates Williams' path to slot snaps, making his outlook poor for the current season.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
NegativeRole6:12
Ryan Heath projects Carnell Tate to play a near full-time role with a 75%+ route share, though he questions whether Tate will be a secondary deep threat or a primary target earner.
Insight pageEli Stowers
NegativeRole22:00
Jacob Sanderson and Ryan Heath agree that Eli Stowers is unlikely to have a significant role early in the season, potentially remaining inactive or seeing minimal usage unless Dallas Goedert suffers an injury.
Insight pageNegativeValue23:37
Jacob Sanderson expects Stowers to have a muted role early in the season, likely leading to a decline in dynasty value. He suggests that active managers could sell now and buy back later, or simply hold if they believe in his long-term talent. Sanderson views him as a potential buy-low target between the end of the season and free agency, anticipating Dallas Goedert may move on, which could open a path for Stowers in 2027.
Insight pageFernando Mendoza
PositiveProjection64:48
Jacob Sanderson predicts Fernando Mendoza will win Offensive Rookie of the Year, projecting him to take over the starting job by week three or four due to his superior mobility and fit for the Clint Kubiak offense compared to Kirk Cousins.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeUsage47:45
Jacob Sanderson projects Dobbins to serve as the clear lead runner on early downs with essentially no receiving role, mirroring his usage from last season.
Insight pageJadarian Price
PositiveRole9:20
Jacob Sanderson notes that Jadarian Price will receive significant opportunity immediately before Zach Charbonnet returns, making him a player to watch for a fast start.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveProjection33:48
Jacob Sanderson maintains high conviction in Love as a prospect despite his ankle injury. He is willing to give Love until week seven or eight before shifting expectations, noting that he would likely continue buying Love in the offseason regardless of his rookie year performance.
Insight pagePositiveValue58:53
Jacob Sanderson identifies Jeremiah Love as his 'rookie flag plant,' arguing that the market is disrespecting a top-three overall pick. He dismisses concerns about his ankle injury and compares his potential trajectory to rookie Todd Gurley.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveValue45:40
Jacob Sanderson is high on Jonah Coleman and suggests his dynasty value could increase if the veterans ahead of him in Denver (J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey) underperform early in the season. Sanderson already ranks Coleman ahead of Dobbins and is prepared to move him ahead of Harvey if the Broncos' backfield struggles.
Insight pageNegativeRole47:12
Jacob Sanderson expects Coleman's early-season usage to be minimal and highly contingent on the performance of J.K. Dobbins and Harvey. While a 'redshirt' year is possible, Sanderson plans to buy Coleman midseason if he remains a backup, as the long-term expectation is for Coleman to take over the Dobbins role in 2027.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury39:24
Jacob Sanderson expects a lost year for Tyson due to his hamstring injury, projecting a return around week nine. He advises against pricing in significant production for this season, viewing any second-half flashes as a bonus while maintaining high long-term conviction in the player's talent.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
NegativeProjection3:40
Jacob Sanderson advises that because Kenyan Sadiq missed almost the entire summer, managers should expect a slow start and avoid double-counting that negative factor in their valuations.
Insight pageNegativeRole43:36
Jacob Sanderson projects that Sadiq will likely start seeing playing time in one-tight-end sets around week 10, following the team's bye week.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
NegativeRole2:36
Jacob Sanderson suggests that Makai Lemon will likely be limited to three-wide receiver sets to start the season, similar to Omar Cooper.
Insight pageNegativeRole36:09
Jacob Sanderson believes Lemon's fantasy relevance this year depends on his ability to displace Dontayvion Wicks in two-receiver sets. If Lemon is not mixing into those sets by week five or six, or failing to outplay Wicks on a per-route basis, concern is warranted. However, Sanderson notes that even if Lemon doesn't matter for fantasy this year, his talent could still make him a buy for next season.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeRole17:30
Ryan Heath and Jacob Sanderson debate Mike Evans' outlook; Heath is skeptical of Evans' current efficiency and separation, while Sanderson argues Evans remains an excellent separator despite declining YAC ability.
Insight pageOmar Cooper Jr.
NegativeRole2:27
Jacob Sanderson notes that Omar Cooper is expected to be limited to three-wide receiver sets to start the season, serving as a baseline expectation for his early-year usage.
Insight pageNegativeRole44:15
Jacob Sanderson jokingly suggests that Omar Cooper will not be playing in three-receiver sets until 2027, indicating no immediate fantasy expectation.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeUsage53:59
Jacob Sanderson suggests that if Pollard looks 'dusty' or ineffective early in the season, it could open a window for Nick Singleton to gain snaps, though he remains skeptical of the Titans' backfield overall.
Insight pageTy Simpson
NegativeValue27:15
Jacob Sanderson notes that Simpson is likely to become an afterthought by week five, making him an easy target for rebuilders to acquire from contenders. Despite the lack of immediate playing time, Sanderson argues that nothing has changed to decrease his stock, and he advises against selling him for less than his rookie draft value, preferring to treat him as a long-term hold.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Meine Zehen bringen mich um. Diese Schuhe sind viel zu eng.
0:04Trägst du immer noch diese spitzen Dinger? Ich meine, sind nicht alle Laufschuhe so geformt?
0:09Nein, du brauchst Altras. Altra? Altras sind geformt wie deine Füße mit einer fußförmigen Zehenbox.
0:14Einfach viel bequemer. Bezwänge deinen Lauf mit Hallenzehen. Okay, das klingt traumhaft.
0:18Mehr Komfort, Kraft und Dynamik. Alles durch die Passform.
0:22Altra versteht das einfach. Altra, stay out there. Welcome back to Dynasty Points.
0:26I'm Ryan Heath. Today, we are covering all things rookies as we head into the NFL season.
0:32It starts today. We're going to go over expectations, things to look for when we want to buy and sell rookies in Dynasty early in the NFL season.
0:42And later, Jacob and I are going to reveal our picks for our rookie flag plants and the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year predictions.
0:50Let's get right into it. Hey guys, it's Ryan Heath here with Jacob Sanderson filling in for our fearless leader Thomas Tipple here on Dynasty Points.
0:59Jacob and I are here today and we're just going to give you guys kind of the guide to rookies early in the NFL season.
1:08From experience of playing in lots of dynasty leagues between the two of us, I think both of us will have some
1:16kind of evergreen overall advice in terms of how to handle rookies early in the season.
1:21The values kind of swinging wildly on these players as we get our first real NFL information for them.
1:28So we're going to talk about how to navigate that.
1:31We're going to talk about a bunch of specific names and things that we're looking for early in the year for a
1:39lot of these rookies to help us form our opinions.
1:42But yeah, I'm excited to get into it. So Jacob, how are you doing?
1:47And what do you think is the biggest thing that dynasty managers need to keep in mind when it comes to evaluating
1:55the rookies that might already be on their roster or the rookies on other managers rosters as we get into the first few weeks of the season?
2:04Yeah, great question. Super exciting week, of course, with week one immediately on the horizon.
2:09I think for me, the most important thing with rookies is just to try to set a baseline in your mind of
2:17what do you think the role is going to be?
2:20And what do you think is sort of the most important indicators of what you might expect early on in the season?
2:28So, for instance, you know, if you're looking at like an Omar Cooper, who's a guy who's probably going to be, you
2:36know, three wide receiver sets only to start the year.
2:39Or Makai Lemon might be the same thing. You know, what are your actual goals for achievable things early on in the NFL season?
2:48Is it about how quickly they displace the ostensible number two receiver?
2:52Is it about, you know, what are their per route metrics look like?
2:56Like, what is it that you're actually expecting? And then what is it that they could achieve in terms of a benchmark?
3:04And I think that's important to tracking your kind of reasonable feelings about whether a player should be going up or going down in value.
3:12When we know that a lot of people are going to be tilting in every different direction and spinning all sorts of narratives about different players.
3:22So, you know, to me, if it's a player like a Dijon Stribbling who, you know, has been kind of steamed up
3:29boards throughout the summer based on the expectation they're going to have an opportunity for a fast start.
3:35I think it's fair that you should have expectations for a pretty fast start.
3:40If it's someone like a, you know, Kenyan Sadiq who's missed almost all of the summer, like the expectation should be pretty
3:48clearly at this point that they are going to have a slow start.
3:52And so I wouldn't double count that based on whatever you may have already knocked them down over the course of the summer.
4:00Yeah, don't double count, I think, is the most important kind of bit of that and like the best way to sum it up.
4:09I feel like so often we are just kind of mindlessly dropping guys down ranks just because they aren't producing yet.
4:16And when I when I say they're not producing, I mean, literally, the fantasy points per game number is not as high
4:24as we would like it to be. There are so many other kind of indicators and ways that we can measure the
4:31roles and the progression of all of these rookies.
4:34We're going to be tracking that throughout the season on this very program as much as we can with the help of
4:42some awesome industry tools like Data Suite 2.0, which is out today.
4:46You can go to fantasypointsdata.com if you are a Fantasy Points Data Suite subscriber and try that out for yourself.
4:53So much amazing data. It's so much easier to use in the original Data Suite.
4:58Just had to do a quick plug there. Data Suite 2.0.
5:02Got to go check that out. And you can use promo code DS2 for 15% off any subscription right now.
5:09But yeah, as we kind of shift into the summer or into the fall, I thought it would be good on the
5:17show to lay out for every individual player. What is kind of our expectation?
5:22What are we looking for them to do or to prove to us in September?
5:27So and you're you're welcome to disagree with any of these, Jacob, or kind of have like your own list for any of these categories.
5:35But to me, when I really honestly sit down and look at all of the rookies that went in the first at
5:43least couple rounds of rookie drafts this year, four names really stood out to me in terms of I think we're going
5:51to get a decent idea fairly soon, fairly early in the year on whether these guys are any good.
5:57And not to say that like it's a binary thing.
6:01Players can, of course, get better after their first few games in the NFL.
6:06But we're going to get, I think, a pretty good early look, early exposure to Carnell Tate, Jadarian Price, Casey Concepcion and
6:13Fernando Mendoza, whenever it is that he steps onto the field as the starter.
6:18To me, all four of these guys have very likely just immediate close to full time starting roles that should in terms
6:26of how often they're on the field should just be relatively stable to what we would expect for a full time NFL player.
6:34And we're just going to see how all of them perform in each of these roles.
6:39So a Carnell Tate, even if he is not producing early in the season, I think he's just going to play basically
6:47every snap, a 75 percent plus route share like a normal number one or number two receiver would do.
6:53It's I think we are really going to get a good idea early on in terms of the target earning for Tate.
7:01Is he kind of this more secondary situational deep threat receiver that is getting PPR scammed by Wandale Robinson?
7:08Or it's entirely possible that he comes out and is immediately leading the team in targets, kind of in receiving volume and all of that.
7:16And the same with a Casey Concepcion. I will get to him a bit later in terms of our flag plants, but
7:24he's another guy that I think will immediately get something close to a full time role.
7:29And if he's as good as I expect, I would hope that he's at least competitive with a Denzel Boston and with
7:37some of the other weapons on the Browns in terms of overall volume.
7:42Now, of course, these offenses are probably not going to be very good this year.
7:47So I want to keep expectations in check for the actual production.
7:51But I do think Tate and Concepcion are two guys where I am going to have like an immediate reaction in September
7:59if they are clearly behind all of the other receivers on their team in terms of volume and vice versa, if they're clearly ahead.
8:07So I'm curious what you think of those guys or of either of the other names I mentioned, Jadarian Price, Fernando Mendoza.
8:15Take this any way you want. Or am I being too unfair?
8:19Do I need to slow my roll on some of these players?
8:23I think on some of them. I mean, like Casey and Cardinal Tate, I expect to be in such unbelievably inhospitable environments
8:31that I'm not entirely sure how much information we're going to get.
8:35Yeah, Casey, I think we're probably going to get more because even though I expect the Browns to suck and his fantasy
8:42points to hurt as a result, I do think like the rate stats are going to be pretty notable for him.
8:50You know, the kind of the stuff that he can control a little bit, the yards per run, the targets per run,
8:57that stuff, even if the team's just not scoring touchdowns or sustaining play volume.
9:02Tate, I think is trickier. Like if I had to guess, Cardinal Tate's rookie season is going to be pretty disappointing.
9:09And I think it's going to be a debate through the offseason of how much we can take seriously his statistical profile
9:17following a season for like a more downfield type wide receiver in an offense that I think is going to be horrendous.
9:25And so I think it's more questionable for Tate.
9:28Like he, I think more than Concepcion requires somewhat of a actually competent offense for us to get a picture of what
9:35he can do just because of the way he's used.
9:39He's not going to be an easy button type receiver where even if the Browns can't do anything at all on offense,
9:46I do expect them to probably spam Casey Concepcion with targets as much as they can close to the line of scrimmage.
9:54Price, I totally agree. I mean, he's going to get a ton of opportunity immediately before Zach Charbonnet comes back.
10:01I think that that is a guy that you're going to want to see a fast start from.
10:07And then Mendoza, we'll see. I mean, I think I tend to be pretty patient with quarterbacks.
10:13Like probably the guy that I would put the most in this category is dribbling.
10:18Like, I mean, he's the guy that the whole kind of premise of why he's been boosted up so high is how
10:26good he looked in training camp, how injured everyone is around him, how much opportunity he's going to get based on the draft capital.
10:34Like he's an older player who's thrust into opportunity and was drafted very high.
10:39Like to me, he's an example of like, we're going to see it this year or never.
10:45And it might be this year and never. Like you think of sometimes these quote unquote overdrafted profiles that have hit actually
10:53in year one, but then not done much for the rest of their careers.
10:58Like you think of like a Chase Claypool comes to mind.
11:01Jahan Dotson comes to mind. I think he's in the best position right now that he's potentially ever going to be in.
11:09And so to me, if he is not able to come out of the gates, I don't mean like literally week one,
11:17but if he's not able to show meaningful production within the first month of the season, he would be kind of on red alert for me.
11:26And then if he does, then the question becomes, okay, is this, you know, Puka Nakua, where kind of everybody missed on the prospect profile coming out?
11:35He hit immediately is going to be a star.
11:38Or is it Chase Claypool who's going to kind of hit immediately when they have the opportunity and not sustain it?
11:45That's where we're going to have to get into more of the, you know, how is he producing and make our judgment call from there.
11:54But he would be top of my list for I want to see it immediately.
11:59Altra, stay out there. I agree. I agree. We will probably have like an offseason debate on the offenses and how much
12:07it held each of these guys back and all that.
12:10I'm not like precluding that whatsoever. I'm more saying how much are we going to find out about their rookie seasons in the first few weeks?
12:19And I would stand by that take for a Carnell Tate.
12:23But for Stripling, I think it's interesting because I agree with you that for a player where the whole idea is we
12:31could see immediate production, we see the immediate preseason production and all of the hype through training camp.
12:37Yeah, the thought in the community is going to be, hey, like we want to see it.
12:43And I do think that if we don't see it, even in the first month of the year, I kind of think
12:51a lot of the Stripling hype is going to die down and I think he'll become very acquirable.
12:57I might actually be interested at that point because I can say two things about Dijon Stripling.
13:03A, I don't think he's going to be that productive whenever Mike Evans and George Kittle are healthy.
13:09Kittle got on the plane to go to Australia.
13:12Evans was speaking to the media over the last couple of days, and it sounds like he was basically saying, I would have played through all these injuries.
13:22It's frustrating, but it doesn't sound like his kind of preseason injuries are a big deal or that they're going to prevent
13:29him from playing in week one, certainly in the near term.
13:33So I do think we could have a scenario where the 49ers top weapons stay healthy, stay on the field for the first month of the year.
13:43Dijon Stripling is in more of like a part-time role or doesn't, yeah, just doesn't play all that much.
13:49Maybe there's like a flash play or two. You don't think he'll be the starter in two receiver sets week one?
13:57I do. You do? Okay, I don't. Yeah. So maybe that's something we'll just find out immediately.
14:02I think he's going to play like 90% of the routes on Thursday.
14:07Okay, I don't. So that's very interesting. I'll have to see that maybe that'll be a debate that Chris Wecht and I
14:15have in the projections that he just put up.
14:18I mean, it's super fragile. I could obviously be wrong, but I don't know.
14:23To me, this is something where I'm like, everyone has decided this is the guy.
14:28The whole point of why he's risen up so much is how impressive he's been in preseason and the draft capital and the injuries.
14:36Like, why is he being drafted so highly if that's not our expectation?
14:41Shouldn't that be the expectation? I mean, I suppose.
14:44He's a 33rd overall pick and they have like a completely washed up Debo Samuel.
14:49He's not going to play ahead of him in week one in two receiver sets?
14:54I kind of think Debo does. Or that it's at least kind of close enough that Debo out-targets him, out-produces him, all of that.
15:02Yeah, I don't think Debo will out-produce him or out-target him.
15:06But if he does, then I have questions. Like, I think if you're good, you should out-produce Debo Samuel.
15:13Like, maybe not week one, but like pretty darn soon after.
15:17Like, Debo sat out there all summer. He had no one interested in him.
15:21Can't run a route to save his life. Like, I don't know.
15:26If you can't out-produce Debo Samuel within like a few weeks, like, then I don't think you're very good.
15:32Well, so I would say, so I guess let me lay out how I expect this to go.
15:38Sure. Right? I don't think stripling out-targets out-produces Samuel in week one or that he clearly plays ahead of him or anything like that.
15:47I think he is kind of the third receiver in target volume and routes and all of the usage data for the
15:54first month, presuming health from the other two guys.
15:58And then I think, yeah, the dynasty community largely kind of loses interest in him.
16:03The hype dies down a little bit. But my interest in stripling or like the reason that I've been able to entertain
16:10any of these conversations at all is I don't think it matters as much for a Kyle Shanahan wide receiver.
16:17We've seen this time and time again where if he loses weapons or if he just kind of feels like it and
16:25wants to prove a point, he will scheme up touches for a Jawan Jennings.
16:30Or he will scheme them up and then take them away from a Brandon Ayuk or a Dante Pettis or any of these receivers, right?
16:38Kind of regardless of what we would say their talent level is.
16:43So for me, that like angle on stripling still would not be gone.
16:47And if I can buy a stripling after a month of him not doing a whole lot or not playing a whole
16:55lot, I feel like I'm almost guaranteed to have a selling opportunity because everybody will immediately remember all of their offseason excitement
17:02for stripling the moment anybody on this offense gets injured.
17:06And it looks like he will be forced into a bigger role.
17:10So I don't know. Maybe I'm like, no, that makes sense.
17:14Way too 40 chess on this, but that was how I was approaching this.
17:19That makes sense. I mean, I definitely could see that outcome where like, even if he is not that good, that he
17:26will have spurts of being very good if he has opportunities, like if Mike Evans gets hurt or something.
17:33Like I just, my baseline expectation is that everyone that isn't McCaffrey is cooked.
17:38So to me, I'm like, if stripling, if you're good, you should be the wide receiver one in this offense.
17:45Like, I don't think Mike Evans has it anymore.
17:48I don't think Debo has it anymore. I don't think Kittle has it anymore.
17:53So my expectations are pretty high. I'm like, if you're good, you should be the one that's getting schemed up as the
18:00top pass catcher in week one, like, or week two.
18:04Like, I don't, I don't know. Like my, I mean, Mike Evans is another conversation.
18:09Like, I think you guys, like as in like fantasy points, views him a lot more favorably than I do.
18:16We have him on our main event team with Scott, unfortunately.
18:20Like, I, he, to me, I'm not even sure that he should be like presumed to be ahead of stripling if stripling is good.
18:28Like, here's last year. It's been one of my favorite stats this year.
18:33Um, 50 plus targets over 12 ADOT. The only players who had less than seven yards per target on that last year
18:40were Troy Franklin, Darnell Mooney, Alec Aomaner, Van Jefferson, Keon Coleman, Jerry Judy, and Mike Evans.
18:46Like, I'm, I'm not sure that Mike Evans even still has it anymore.
18:50So my expectations for stripling are, are like, if you're the guy, then Kyle Shanahan will start scheming you stuff almost immediately.
18:58Um, and if he doesn't, then like, we'll see, maybe he pops later in the year and, and you could get a selling opportunity.
19:06But then I'd probably be wanting to take that selling opportunity.
19:10Um, if he, to me, if he's the truth, like, if he's a guy, we're going to be valuing is one and a half, two firsts.
19:19Like, I want to see it in the first month.
19:23The opportunity to me is pretty strong with a bunch of injured old guys around you.
19:28Yeah, I guess I just, on both fronts, I think Mike Evans does still have it.
19:34The, yes, he was very inefficient on a per target basis last year.
19:38A lot of that is Baker Mayfield playing through 16 different injuries.
19:42That's also somewhat Evans playing through injuries of his own.
19:46Evans is still an excellent separator. He still looks awesome in all of our charted separation data.
19:52It's the after the catch stuff that has completely disappeared for him.
19:56But I personally am less worried about that for Mike Evans in a Shanahan offense where he can kind of just catch touchdowns and like do his thing.
20:06I do think stripling could end up being like the, whether it's, yeah, stripling or Debo if he's not cooked is more like the yak piece, I guess.
20:15If we're like forcing the archetypes onto these players.
20:18But I think it, at least with that, that in that role, Evans can be very productive and like very high volume and very good for fantasy.
20:28You can say the same of Devante Adams has been the same, that same profile over the past couple of years where it's been still an excellent separator.
20:37Not really giving you anything after the catch, like that explosiveness is gone, but that's gone just fine for him in fantasy.
20:45So I'm, yeah, I'm more, I guess I'm more into all of the 49ers old guys at this point.
20:52And sure, that makes me scared. And I think there's also definitely a world where, where, where nobody wins and, and it's
20:59just kind of sad all around too. I think somebody wins.
21:03It's also a possibility. Because I think somebody wins because, because Kyle Shanahan is, is the goat and Brock Purdy is pretty dang good.
21:11So I think somebody wins. I don't know who wins.
21:15Like, because I, I think there's holes to poke in stripling.
21:19There's holes to poke in Evans, Debo, Kittle. God knows like what would happen if McCaffrey didn't stay healthy, but I think somebody wins.
21:27Like, I mean, I'm pretty sure if Kyle Shanahan wanted to, Jacob Cowan could have 18 points a game.
21:34Like some, somebody is going to win. I just don't know who it's going to be.
21:39Yes. On that, let's talk about a couple, or I'll just throw a couple other names at you that I would put
21:47in like a similar bucket to stripling, where if it's very quiet early in the year and everyone kind of forgets and
21:54moves on to more exciting things, is these are players that I can see myself sitting in week five or week six
22:02on a team that I'm going to rebuild and just checking in and inquiring on.
22:07Eli Stowers is one of them. For me, I just don't expect him to play much at all early in the season.
22:15I don't entirely know how priced in that is.
22:18I think that's been pretty clear for people that have been closely following the training camp reports, the offseason and or have
22:26what I would say was like a stick of him prospect from like a mental lens.
22:31I don't know if that's consensus in the dynasty community yet.
22:35So if he's like a zero through six weeks, are you sending out Eli Stowers trade offers, Jacob?
22:41No, because I don't believe in him at all.
22:44But your process point is fair. I definitely expect Eli Stowers to have no role whatsoever unless there is an injury to
22:52Dallas Goddard or maybe to multiple receivers early in the season.
22:56I go as far as to say all season, but at least early in the season.
23:01So, I mean, I don't even expect him to be active in week one.
23:06He might be active. I'm sure he'll get active at some point in the season and maybe they'll have like a package of plays for him.
23:15I definitely think he is their second best receiving tight end.
23:19They don't really have anyone else on the roster that is of interest outside of like pure blocking.
23:25So I don't expect to have a big role at all.
23:29I'm not sure how priced in that is. I mean, I think that the right thing to do is like fast forward
23:37to week four and think about how you'd value Eli Stowers if he spends the first four weeks either inactive or active but barely playing.
23:45That's like probably what you should assume as the most likely valuation right now.
23:50I think that the only way that that changes very, very early in the season is a Dallas Goddard immediate injury.
23:58And then, you know, think about what you feel like he would be worth.
24:02Like if you are an Eli Stowers guy, I'm not like a big believer in trying to time the market.
24:09Like if you believe a lot in this guy, like I don't know that you should be like selling now and then
24:17trying to get him back in the same league like a month, weeks later.
24:22I do expect he'll probably decline in value overall.
24:25And if you're a very active dynasty manager that's willing to sell off of him in some leagues and then buy him
24:33in other leagues partway through the season, like that's probably the optimal approach.
24:37To me, it's just like I don't know how to predict how things are going to go, right?
24:43Maybe Dallas Goddard gets hurt in the first week of the season and then Stowers is active and he has a big
24:51role and he looks good and he actually gains in value.
24:55But I definitely think if you are more into market timing strategies, this would be the guy to do it with because
25:02I definitely think all of the signals point towards him having a very muted role early in the year.
25:09And then my guess is he's a guy that you want to buy low on probably between the end of this season
25:17and before free agency when everyone's really low on Eli Stowers and they don't realize that Dallas Goddard is probably going to move on.
25:25And then there's going to be like, you know, some honeymoon period and maybe Eli Stowers gets a shot next year.
25:32Maybe he doesn't, but that's a long way away.
25:35You certainly can't predict, you know, what's going to happen throughout an entire season.
25:40I think I'm coming at this from the angle of I really appreciated kind of all his production in his college profile
25:48from like a very spreadsheet focused, like on paper perspective.
25:51And I thought as I as we got into rookie draft season that I ranked him reasonably.
25:57I given like the limitations that he has as a player in terms of getting onto the field enough to matter for fantasy.
26:05And I feel like the rest of the community was just like way out in front of me on that.
26:12So I would be interested because I do think he's at the very least a talented receiver could be is like an
26:20archetype of player I'm interested in in fantasy could be like a productive player down the line.
26:26So I guess, yeah, what I'm saying is if it plays out kind of how we expect where he's inactive to irrelevant
26:33for the start of his rookie season. I do have like some belief in the player in his potential to produce when he gets on the field.
26:43I don't know when that would be, but I would be interested in buying.
26:48I think once it's priced in and everyone's kind of forced to accept, oh, this is a player maybe like in the
26:55Arande Gadsden mold where we don't exactly know when he's going to have a role in his offense.
27:01But if he does, there's like this theoretical upside to it.
27:05Yeah, I just want him to be viewed like that rather than like a consensus top nine or top 10 rookie draft pick like he was this spring.
27:15And I guess similarly, Ty Simpson is a name that I feel like no one has discussed for the basically since rookie draft season.
27:23A lot of people drafted him in the top top eight to top 10 rookie picks where the play clearly was, hey, it's super flex.
27:32This guy went in round one. He plays for a genius play caller, Sean McVay.
27:37Like we just need to throw our hands up at some point and rank him here.
27:43And I think on several teams, I was like, OK, this is I'm going to make the future value bet.
27:50But as I obviously I close my eyes, I think about what where are all of our brains going to be heading
27:57into week five in October or whatever. I think Simpson's probably a like the most substantial way that you could express an afterthought.
28:05I don't think anyone's going to be thinking about Ty Simpson.
28:09And I think if I'm a contender and I have Ty Simpson on my roster, I'm going to be like, man, this
28:17is basically like an extra late first or something that I can try to ship off.
28:22And I think it will be very easy, actually, to acquire him on Rebuilder.
28:27So is that something you're interested in doing just from a structural level of where is my team at?
28:34Am I treating this almost like a pick that I'm moving on to a Rebuilder or off of a contender?
28:41Or do you have more of an in-depth kind of Ty Simpson take or way you want to treat him?
28:48Yeah. Meine Zehen bringen mich um. Diese Schuhe sind viel zu eng.
28:52Trägst du immer noch diese spitzen Dinger? Ich meine, sind nicht alle Laufschuhe so geformt?
28:57Nein, du brauchst Altras. Altra? Altras sind geformt wie deine Füße mit einer fußförmigen Zehenbox.
29:02Einfach viel bequemer. Bezwinge deinen Lauf mit Hallenzehen. Okay, das klingt traumhaft.
29:06Mehr Komfort, Kraft und Dynamik. Alles durch die Passform.
29:09Altra versteht das einfach. Altra, stay out there. Yeah, the quarterback question is always interesting in rookie drafts.
29:16Specifically the quarterback who isn't expected to play right away.
29:19Because he does become a pretty unique asset. It feels as though typically he becomes less valuable, it seems.
29:26Almost immediately after you take him, once you start getting into the season.
29:30Because, yeah, he's not quite as liquid as a pick.
29:34But he has no chance to really increase his value outside of a Matthew Stafford injury.
29:39Unlike Eli Stowers, it's not like Ty Simpson has done anything to decrease his stock over the course of the offseason.
29:46I thought, if anything, he actually played totally fine in the preseason.
29:51So there's no real reason why he should be valued any differently today than he was in rookie drafts.
29:57But I definitely agree with you about the mechanics of things where, yeah, he's out of sight, out of mind.
30:04And not everyone in your league is going to have interest in him compared to whether they'd have interest in a first-round pick.
30:12So I think if you took him, I hope that you took him for a reason.
30:18And that you're not then immediately trying to sell him below the value that you got him at in the rookie draft.
30:25Just otherwise, I think that's a poor process play.
30:28To me, if you're going to buy a player like Simpson in the rookie draft, and this would have been true about Hurts or about Love.
30:37I'm sure there's certainly options that didn't work out also.
30:41So if you're going to make that bad, I think you kind of just have to hold on it.
30:48I mean, that would be my preference. I'm just kind of treating him like it's on ice.
30:53It's like in a bank account I can't touch for a year pretty much.
30:58But I definitely agree that on Rebuilders, he's an easy target to go after for sure.
31:04Because he will be out of sight, out of mind for people.
31:08Especially on contenders, if they already sell a first-round pick, they don't have another first-round pick, they can move.
31:15Ty Simpson might be the next closest thing. So you can get some discounts that are pretty clearly irrational on a player
31:22like Simpson where nothing has changed and yet he becomes cheaper.
31:26Yeah, I'm not necessarily saying, oh, this shouldn't be your plan for Ty Simpson going into the season.
31:32I just think it's kind of helpful as we go through to just bookmark all of these guys mentally in terms of what are we expecting?
31:41Where might we be four weeks from now? And we can go back.
31:46This will probably literally be our show ahead of week five.
31:50It is like reexamining our rookie outlooks that we kind of set on this show.
31:55So looking forward to that. Let's shift gears a little bit to just some players where I think the primary question is,
32:02how much do they get on the field for the first month of the year?
32:08And why don't we go a little bit more rapid fire here?
32:12I'm just going to pose the question to you, Jacob, and kind of put you on the spot a little bit.
32:19Give me a week number, like an over or under week five or six or whatever you see is appropriate, to where
32:27you will start to worry about this player if they are not in a full-time role.
32:32So for a running back, we'll say like a 60% snap share.
32:36For a wide receiver, we'll say 65% to 70% plus route participation rate.
32:41Let's start with Jeremiah Love. Well, it's really hard to say this because I think that you always have to look at
32:49not just are they getting into that role that you want them to get into, but how are they performing in the part-time role?
32:57Because there's a world where you blame the player for not getting into a full-time role, and there's a world where you
33:05blame the coach for not getting into the full-time role.
33:08I'm going to assume, to keep it rapid fire as you wanted me to, that those things are correlated.
33:15So that basically the player is not getting into a full-time role because they're not doing a ton in the part-time role.
33:22So for Jeremiah Love, because he has the ankle injury, I'm willing to give him some serious benefit of the doubt.
33:29I think that if he's performing poorly or playing not that much early in the year, I'm going to blame the injury
33:37before I blame him or the coach. So I'll say like week seven, week eight, honestly.
33:43And frankly, like I have so much conviction and love as a prospect that maybe the answer is never.
33:49Like the answer might just be like he could probably have the worst rookie season you can imagine for him.
33:56I'm still going to be buying in the offseason.
33:59So week seven, week eight before I like materially shift expectations.
34:03But I can't imagine a world where I'm panicking more than the market is.
34:08Yeah, I think week eight is also probably my answer for it.
34:12I'm almost going to think of this as like what week will I feel like we need to do a mea culpa on this show about a prospect.
34:22I think that's probably week eight for Jeremiah Love.
34:25Yeah, if things are not working. Let's go to Makai Lemon.
34:29When are you going to become concerned? That's an interesting one.
34:33I mean, it depends on, again, like how he plays in the part time role.
34:38And really also it kind of depends on how Wicks plays because Wicks is going to start in two receiver sets.
34:45And I think Wicks is good. I know a lot of people don't.
34:50So if Wicks is just balling and that's keeping Lemon off, I view that a little bit differently than if Lemon is keeping himself off by being mid.
34:59I'll say if you're expecting him to matter this year, I think he needs to be at least mixing into two receiver
35:07sets and showing some serious flashes by like week four, week five.
35:11That's fair. Yeah. I think there's for Lemon, there is a world where he's mostly Wicks is playing well.
35:18Lemon's playing mostly in three receiver sets. He's not mattering a ton for fantasy, but like the per route stats are pretty good.
35:26I won't really be that concerned about him, period, for like most of the season if that's the case.
35:32Correct. To me, that's fine. That's like something we're going to go into the offseason and argue about and say, well, he
35:40should become more involved in year two. Would the Eagles have drafted him just for this to be the plan, really?
35:47I think if that's where we're at, I am OK kind of holding and waiting and seeing what happens.
35:54But yeah, I would I like the distinction you made where he probably won't matter this year if you're not if you're
36:01not seeing him, if not overtaking Wicks outright in two receiver sets, at least like clearly out playing him on a per
36:09route basis, on a per snap basis to the point where it looks like it's going to happen eventually.
36:16I would agree. I'd want to see that by like like week five, week six, probably.
36:21I could see a world where Lemon is never a particularly helpful piece this year, but he still looks good as per route stuff is strong.
36:30It's just that like Smith is a star and Wicks plays well enough to keep his role and they don't want to
36:38cross train Lemon two positions, etc., etc. And like he never gets those two receiver sets until after the bye week or maybe never.
36:46And like in that scenario, I'm probably still feel good about the talent I'm probably buying next offseason.
36:52But I could definitely see worlds in which Lemon is good, but not that startable this year.
36:58Like, I mean, rookie year JSN was not very startable at any point because he wasn't able to displace DK and lock it.
37:06So I think it depends a little bit on on Wicks and what he's able to do in the two receiver set
37:14role and whether the team thinks it's worth it to take him out of that.
37:19Yeah, and I think almost like on the other end, if Wicks is looking awful, if Wicks is dropping like every fourth
37:27target that comes to him and we're still like doing the Dontavian Wicks can't catch memes.
37:32And it's like week after week after week and Lemon is still not playing into receiver sets, then I would be legitimately concerned, I would say.
37:41Yeah, that's that's true. I mean, so this is a spot like normally I do think that the tie goes to the
37:49round one draft capital guy in most cases. I do think this one's a little bit weird in that Wicks, I suspect
37:57when they're in three receiver sets, Wicks will play X, Smith will play Z predominantly and Lemon will play slot.
38:03Which means that if you're going to put Lemon into two receiver sets, that probably means Smith then would be playing X,
38:11Lemon would be playing Z in those two receiver sets.
38:15So, like, I think tie goes to everyone gets one receiver position, which is Wicks, X, Smith, Z, Lemon, F.
38:21To shift Lemon into two receiver sets, you then have to cross train both Smith and Lemon to two receiver positions.
38:29And that I could see be something that's a little bit wonky on the fly.
38:34So I could see this one lasting longer than you'd like it to.
38:38But I think that if the gap is large enough, they'll figure out a way to make it work.
38:45All right. Let's shift to Jordan Tyson. Give me a week over under where you are or are not concerned.
38:52Of course, this could very much depend on health and any additional news that we get about his injury.
38:59So maybe a little hard ahead of time. But this could be something that turns into a moving target.
39:05So, like, yeah. But with that in mind, where would you like to see some positive movement on Jordan Tyson for you to feel okay about him?
39:15Well, I don't even expect to see him on the field until week nine.
39:19So I don't know. I think if you I think that you should just treat your I think you should just expect
39:27this to be a completely lost year for Tyson and be pleasantly surprised with anything you get, honestly.
39:33So I would like to see him play this year.
39:37And I'd like to see like a couple of games at least where he is able to flash playing full time, remaining healthy and playing well.
39:46But I don't even know that I necessarily expect that.
39:49I think it's probably like it's quite possible the sense of just being a lost year.
39:55So I don't know. My expectations for Tyson are very low and my conviction in the talent is very high, conditional upon
40:02him eventually figuring out a way to stay healthy.
40:06So I don't really see like a world in which I'm panicking on anything that happens with Tyson, to be honest.
40:13I'm probably just going to be pleasantly surprised. What's your view with Tyson this year?
40:18I think I have a slightly earlier expectation or timeline for him.
40:22So it was supposed to be a two month hamstring injury, which was sustained about a month before the season was supposed to kick off.
40:31So theoretically, napkin math, that should be week four, week five, where we start seeing him.
40:36Yeah. Sorry to practice. I'm not saying like he's going to pull.
40:41Yeah. Go for it. Just to cut in the reason why I said week nine.
40:46Actually, yeah. The reason why I said week nine and I should have actually.
40:51Yeah. Week nine is because he's going to miss at least four games right on the pop.
40:57And then week. What is it? Week seven. They are in.
41:00So I think week six is kind of like a more logical timeline.
41:05But then week seven, they're in London. And then week eight, they're on a bye.
41:10Yeah. So I just feel like week nine is kind of a natural period for them where like, you know, like, do
41:18you want to push him back in the first game in London?
41:22Probably not. Then you have a bye week coming up.
41:25Like I could see a world where unless he's ready to go week five, week six, it's probably easiest to just say,
41:33okay, let's just give him an extra couple of weeks to get fully ready.
41:38Yeah, I can definitely see that happening. I think where I'll be concerned is if he's not practicing in or we like haven't heard of this guy.
41:47He's like a ghost. No reporters seen him by like week six, week seven, when we're like getting toward the end of that timeline.
41:55I that's where I it sounds like I'm like a little more buying the idea that he could come back and like
42:03play and hopefully produce somewhat in the second half of the season or at least toward like the last six weeks of
42:11the season that he could be a player that matters or like flashes for at least like a period of time.
42:18I think I'm like pricing that in right now for him.
42:22So if he's not practicing by like week six, week seven, I will stop pricing that in.
42:28Then I think I will alter my outlook. But yeah, maybe I'm just a little more la-di-da injury optimist than you are on Tyson right now.
42:37I mean, I think it's possible. Like I've taken him.
42:40We took him on that main event team too.
42:43I think you get to a certain point in especially that format where it's like you want the sprint outside of the end.
42:51You have deep benches. You can carry him. I think there's a point where it's worth the upside.
42:58I'm just trying not to have. I'm trying not to have major expectations for this season that I'm pricing into his dynasty price.
43:06I'm trying my best to mostly just treat him as, okay, you know, if I get very little from him this year,
43:13how would I value him going into next year, provided that the reports are at least he'll be going into 2027 at full health.
43:21That's kind of how I'm trying to treat him.
43:25And to me, if we get that sustained second half upside, that'd be great.
43:29That'd be a little bit of a bonus for me.
43:33All right. Let's actually rapid fire these next four guys.
43:36Kenyon Sadiq, give me a week where you expect him to be playing at least somewhat in one tight end sets.
43:44Do you know the Jets buy? Do you happen to know their buy?
43:48I do not know their buy off the top of my head.
43:52Neither do I. Let me just say mid-season slash their buy week as I look up their buy week.
43:59But probably after the buy week, unless they have like a week five buy or something.
44:04Their buy is week 13. Oh, God. Then I'll say week 10.
44:09All right. Week 10 for Kenyon Sadiq. Omar Cooper, when's he going to be playing in three receiver sets?
44:152027. Okay. Damn. Jeremy Bernard, when's he playing in three receiver sets?
44:19In three receiver sets. Week one. Okay. Antonio Williams, when is he going to be playing at all in a real capacity?
44:27I mean, I don't know. Maybe when he's on the BC Lions.
44:31I expect him to be a very rotational third receiver.
44:35Like, I don't know. Maybe late in the season.
44:38The problem that he has is that like there's just a, he's best in the slot.
44:43And since they signed digs, they're so bungled up at slot.
44:47Where digs you prefer to have in the slot in three receiver sets.
44:52So you're kind of looking for an outside receiver, which is probably Burks.
44:56And then if you want to play 12 personnel, they're probably going to want to do that a lot.
45:03So you can get Chig into the slot. Like, it's just a bit of an S show.
45:09So unless they think he can play outside or they want to play digs outside, the digs thing's really bad for him.
45:16I don't know. I hope that we'll see him get some reps late in the season.
45:22I never expect him to be startable without an injury.
45:25All right. I like all those baselines that we've got.
45:29I think it's good to keep those expectations in mind as we go.
45:33Before we get into the awards, there are two more kind of situations I want to talk about.
45:40And I want you, if I'm galaxy braining way too hard when I was building this show sheet, I want you to
45:47tell me that this is a ridiculous way to look at it, Ryan.
45:52But I genuinely think it's very important, not necessarily how much these two running backs get on the field or how they
45:59look in limited action, if they get any, in the first month of the season, but rather how the veterans in front
46:07of them in the backfield look in terms of explosiveness, efficiency.
46:11Team success certainly would tie into this as well.
46:14I think that if J.K. Dobbins comes out and looks very washed and or injured or whatever, and if R.J.
46:21Harvey comes out and doesn't look like he's any better of a between-the-tackles runner than he showed as a rookie, then I
46:28will get a lot higher on Jonah Coleman. And I'm already rather high on Jonah Coleman from a dynasty perspective.
46:35I ranked him as my whatever it was, the 110, the 111, like at the top of that really awful tier break
46:43that we had in Dynasty rookie drafts. I just ranked him as the next guy there once everyone ran out of fringe round one picks to draft.
46:52I may just move Coleman ahead of Harvey, and I already have him ahead of Dobbins, but ahead of some real running backs in the NFL.
47:01If this Broncos backfield is not productive in the first month of the season, kind of regardless of what the roles are
47:09or where Coleman figures in, do you agree with me?
47:12Do you actually want to see Jonah Coleman play real snaps actually before you increase his outlook?
47:18Or am I right to think of it as being very contingent on how these other two look?
47:25Yeah, I think his upside this year is very contingent on how the other two look.
47:30I don't expect to see a ton of Jonah Coleman the first couple weeks of the season.
47:36I just wrote up Denver and all 31 other backfields in my Hitchhiker's Guide Season preview column, which you can check out on Thinking About Thinking.
47:45My estimation for the start of the year is that J.K.
47:49Dobbins plays basically the role he played last year, which is the clear lead runner on early downs has basically no receiving role.
47:57Then I think Harvey plays at least the receiving role that he played last year, which is sort of these early down, schemed up looks.
48:06He's not going to get a ton of targets or touches each week.
48:10The ones he does get have the potential to be very valuable.
48:14Puts him in a really volatile week-to-week, kind of better-in-best-ball scoring situation.
48:18What I think is TBD is, does Harvey also get all of the non-Dobbins carries that he got last year?
48:25I think probably early in the year, yes. But I'm not positive about that.
48:30And then what happens in the pure long down and distance stuff?
48:34They've talked up Harvey as potentially a third down back.
48:38I never know if they mean that literally or if they mean that colloquially.
48:43Last year, he never did that. That was Tyler Bidet for the most part.
48:48Occasionally it was Jaleel McLaughlin. And I think that that could be Harvey this year, perhaps.
48:53I also think that could be Coleman, perhaps. I wouldn't even put it past Sean Payton to like, I don't even know
49:01if Tyler Bidet is still on the team or if they have some dude on the practice squad.
49:07But it wouldn't be that stunning to me if Jonah Coleman was healthy and active after all the positive hype just so
49:15they could elevate some goofball to play third and tens for the first couple weeks of the season.
49:21So that's the stuff that to me is in flux.
49:24The big key is, like you just said, does Dobbins look washed?
49:28Because if Dobbins looks washed, then Coleman could potentially just be taking over his role.
49:34And then how does Harvey look? I think Harvey gets a bad rap sometimes as though his rookie season was all bad.
49:41He was legitimately very good at that specific role.
49:44I don't see any reason why that role would go to anyone else.
49:49He's quite good at that. But does he look better as a runner?
49:53Does he look better as a pass protector? Because Coleman, I think, has the potential to be a better runner and a
50:01better pass protector than him immediately, honestly. So I think you're absolutely looking at those two things for this year.
50:08And if you get some of the indications that there's some frailty to those first two backs, I'm buying Coleman now.
50:15If you don't, then I don't think you need to buy Coleman now.
50:20I'm still probably buying Coleman, though, like midseason. Like if it's midseason and Dobbins and Harvey both look good and it's mostly
50:27a two-man backfield, I'll probably try to buy low on Coleman because I still think the most likely outcome, even if it's
50:35a virtual redshirt year for Coleman, is that they move on from Dobbins after the year and then they install Coleman in
50:43the Dobbins role as a committee with Harvey next season.
50:46We've seen several examples in recent years of teams drafting these kind of high day three running backs, not using them that
50:54much, but they have a plan for them in year two.
50:58I think that that's still going to be my baseline expectation for Coleman, kind of regardless of how the year goes.
51:05So the question is, is it the scenario you painted where I'm trying to buy early season so I don't have to
51:12buy even higher later in the season? Or am I sitting it out early season and then hoping to buy low midseason?
51:20All roads to me probably do lead to me wanting to buy Jonah Coleman at some point.
51:26Oh, my legs bring me up. These shoes are much too heavy.
51:30Träggst du immer noch diese spitzen Dinger? I mean, are you not all the shoes so formed?
51:36Nein, you need Altrace. Altrace? Altrace are formed like your feet with a foot-farmic 10 box.
51:42Just a bit more comfortable. You're going to get your feet with high 10.
51:46Okay, that's a dream. Traumhaft. Mehr Komfort, Kraft und Dynamik.
51:50Alles durch die Passform. Altrace versteht das einfach. Altrace, stay out there.
51:54Yeah, I think I agree. So I painted kind of a negative picture in terms of how are Dobbins and Harvey going
52:02to perform when I like let us into this topic.
52:05But I think what's actually more likely for the Broncos this year, as I will get into or as you guys already
52:13heard me get into on last night's live stream, I expect this offense to be quite good.
52:19And I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that both Dobbins and Harvey are in like the world of
52:26fantasy relevance for redraft leagues or just for managed leagues.
52:30Right. Like I don't think it's totally out of the question that this this is like a Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara rookie season type of deal.
52:39And if that's the case, if the offense is just like looks amazing and they're clearly not like going to make any
52:46changes to something that's working, then I agree. Then Coleman becomes an amazing like longer term by low in week eight.
52:54I can totally see that being how this works out.
52:57We can go a little quicker just because I think that the case here is maybe a little weaker, but similar.
53:04What about Nick Singleton, who I feel like we have heard almost nothing about this summer relative to a lot of these other players?
53:13Well, who wants to talk about the Titans? Yeah.
53:16Yeah. And I mean, hey, that's some of it.
53:19Or watch the Titans or play on the Titans.
53:22Or cover the Titans or yeah. Go to a Titans game.
53:26Like, yeah. Shout out Easton Freeze, Titans beat writer, friend of fantasy points.
53:31But there just is not that much coverage of them.
53:34There therefore is not that much hype on their rookies, including Nick Singleton.
53:38But this was kind of a similar thesis with him where I have less of a belief in the player in him being good and everything.
53:48But the hope was, hey, let's say Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears, neither of them make any sort of case for why
53:55they need to be involved and on this roster in 2027.
53:59If we come out in the first month of the year and Tony Pollard looks kind of dusty, Spears is still not
54:07actually biting into his workload, even as we've expected him to for each of the past three seasons.
54:13If it's just like more of the same, but with Pollard playing worse, are we buying Nick Singleton or are we just
54:20like you Titans and like I'm done with it by that point?
54:25I mean, this is a way harder one than Coleman because I just have so much less confidence in Singleton, the player, than I do in Coleman.
54:34So like Coleman, I talked about kind of independent of what he's doing.
54:38I'm looking for reasons to buy him, right? I'm either trying to buy early season based on Harvey and Dobbins looking not
54:46great because my expectation is that Coleman will come in then sooner than later.
54:51If they do look good, I'm trying to buy low on Coleman because I think that with what we know about him
54:59as a prospect and with what the team has said about him, while off season that I'm guessing there's a real plan there.
55:07I'm not as sure that there's a real plan with Singleton like there might be, but it might just be that Singleton
55:14is a kind of a lottery ticket for them.
55:17He went a lot later in the draft. I think he has real upside.
55:22He has like a very fantasy friendly skill set.
55:25He's super athletic. He can catch the ball. I think his game is way less refined.
55:31And so I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he is never anything at all in the NFL, you know, and that they
55:38get through the season and they might not have a very high opinion of Nick Singleton.
55:44And so it might be a redshirt year for him kind of no matter what Pollard and Spears look like.
55:51And he might factor into their plans not at all next season.
55:55Like, I don't know with Nick Singleton. So I think you definitely want to be like, I would have a hard time
56:03buying any higher than his price already was in rookie drafts unless we actually see signs of him on the field and looking kind of good, you know?
56:12And hopefully there's like a ramp up enough period where you're able to get some more information on him before the train has left the station.
56:21If it's not the case, like if it's just Tony Pollard, like suffers a significant injury and then Singleton gets his chance,
56:29like, you know, and then he looks amazing in his first game and I'm never able to buy any more shares.
56:36Like I'm kind of just like at so be it on that one.
56:41Like I, I, I've dabbled in the rookie drafts.
56:44I stashed him on my taxi squads. And if that's all the shares that I get, I'm okay with it.
56:51But I think the signals you're probably looking for are somewhat similar to Denver.
56:56You know, it's how does Pollard look? Does he look like a guy who needs to be replaced?
57:02And if anything, there becomes a window of time where if Pollard looks like crap for one or two weeks, you might be interested in buying Nick Singleton.
57:12If Pollard looks like crap for four or five weeks and Nick Singleton still not getting any snaps, that might tell you
57:19all I need to know about where Nick Singleton is at.
57:23And I'm also interested to see, like, what is the split between Pollard and Spears?
57:28Does Spears actually get any of the early down stuff?
57:32You know, does he look like he is potentially the RB2 in full or is he just in his own role?
57:39Because if it's like all Pollard on early downs and Spears is really only playing in passing situations, then maybe Singleton is
57:47kind of viewed as the direct backup to Pollard.
57:50That's the most optimistic scenario. So I don't know.
57:53That's a it's a trickier one because I don't have any idea what to think of Nick Singleton.
57:59I think that's good on expectations for these guys.
58:02Before we get out of here, I want to just go through our rookie awards.
58:08We did our veteran awards last night, but we made you guys wait for the rookies today.
58:14So I'll let you go first, Jacob. We only have two categories for this since it's just rookies.
58:20But first is going to be your rookie flag plant.
58:23This is for dynasty fantasy football more so than like real NFL football.
58:28I mean, I wanted to pick the one that you picked.
58:32So then I just went boring. I mean, it's not a very good class.
58:36The one guy outside of the guy that you picked and the first pick in every draft that I have a lot of conviction on is Jordan Tyson.
58:46We're not going to see him for half the year.
58:50So Jeremiah Love. Jeremiah Love is my rookie flag plant.
58:53And I don't even think it's that boring of a take because he's going in the mid to late third round right
59:01now in a lot of high stakes redraft leagues.
59:04And I think that that is ridiculous. I think it is unbelievably disrespectful what the market is doing to a number three
59:11overall pick who is an absolutely fantastic prospect. I see so much FUD everywhere on my timeline about Tyler Algier and his ankle and the Cardinals.
59:20And I just can't remember another player with his level of draft capital at this position that we've drafted this low in seasonal leagues.
59:29And even in dynasty leagues, he is a good bit below the top couple of backs and pretty consistently behind Ashton Gentry.
59:36So I guess that's my rookie flag plant is that there is one truly sensational beyond repute prospect in this class.
59:44And I don't think he's actually being treated all that nicely by fantasy players.
59:49I complete this is a great one. Yeah, if you had gotten into the sheet before me and taken my guide, I probably would have also said love.
59:58I tweeted a couple of weeks ago. Does anybody remember that time that rookie Todd Gurley, who I believe was the 10th
60:06overall pick 10th or 12th or somewhere in there, was playing for the Jeff Fisher Rams?
60:11And he missed the first three games of the season recovering from ACL surgery that he's had sustained the year before.
60:19And from like week four on, he was the RB2 by fantasy points for game in fantasy football.
60:25Yeah, that was the year that like every other first round pick at running back got injured.
60:31But that's like totally possible for and we're worried about an ankle sprain where love is probably still playing week one or at least has a chance.
60:40Like, yeah, I agree. I remember a time earlier in the summer when I said to you, oh, are we getting enough
60:48of a discount at the two, three turn on Jeremiah love for a bad team?
60:53But that clearly we weren't because we were going to get an even bigger one.
60:58And I and I have been very happy to take it as, yeah, the FUD has built throughout August.
61:05So I've been with some podcasters. I won't name names.
61:08I've been saying that there's a 50 50 chance that Janarian Price is going to outscore him this year.
61:15And I'm just going to say, no, there's not.
61:18There's not. There's a chance. It's not 50 50.
61:21I don't even think that it is 70 30.
61:24Jeremiah love is if we want, if we were curious, which of these players was a lot better than the other.
61:32I just think we should ask the Notre Dame coaching staff, which one they thought was a lot better for the last two years.
61:40It can be just as simple as that. My rookie flag plant that we've just teased incessantly at this point is Casey Concepcion.
61:48I think here we have kind of just like the best combination of things that irrationally hold down a player's ADP and dynasty stock.
61:56And this isn't to say that Concepcion doesn't have his fans.
62:00He definitely does. But the hype has never gotten that out of control for a few reasons.
62:06One is that he plays for the Cleveland Browns, which is understood, but plays for, I think, easily the best play caller
62:14that the Browns have had in Todd Munkin. Since the last time Todd Munkin was a coach for the Browns and he
62:21wasn't allowed to call plays and was like butting heads with Freddie Kitchens on the sideline and shit talking him behind his back, which was legendary and deserved.
62:31But yeah, I think that Concepcion is just Munkin's news.
62:34A Flowers has been the comparison that their GM that like every NFL evaluator has made since the moment he got drafted.
62:42I really liked Concepcion's profile from an analytics perspective where he had the incredibly strong first season in college, had a really,
62:50really bad second season at NC State where the entire offense was just extremely weird and gimmicky.
62:55Justin Jolie outproduced him in that season who just got cut from the Broncos rookie tight end.
63:01That like just underscores it even more for me that that whole year is just fake and should be thrown out.
63:09As I was saying throughout draft season, just ignore that one in your models and everything.
63:14He was great after he transferred. They fully changed his role.
63:18I think he can be kind of a do-it-all, move-around-the-formation type of chess piece for Munkin.
63:24And I think we're going to see it early this year and that we, at the very least, are going into 2027
63:31with the Browns in position to draft a quarterback and the future looking very bright.
63:36So Concepcion is going to be my biggest Dynasty rookie flag plant here.
63:41Anything to add there, Jacob? I'll let you go ahead.
63:44No, not much. I mean, I had already said that he would have been my pick if you didn't get into the show sheet first.
63:53So I'm a huge fan of KC. I'm a huge fan of Todd Munkin.
63:58Obviously not a huge fan of the Browns quarterback play.
64:01But I think I have him ranked out of consensus in every format and especially in Dynasty where you get...
64:08You don't really need him to score a ton of points.
64:12I think you just need him to look impressive and pile up fancy stats for nerds in their spreadsheet.
64:19That's where I'm very, very optimistic that KC Concepcion is going to return value for you.
64:24Moving into NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. We're just each going to make our prediction here.
64:30I'm going to give the same prediction that I gave in our full staff predictions article that you can go look at on fantasypoints.com.
64:38We predicted every award, every division winner, all of that stuff that you can check out.
64:44So I'm just going with Fernando Mendoza as Rookie of the Year.
64:48And this is in part centered in my belief that he ends up starting sooner than later.
64:54I think I've given the take on this program before.
64:58That so much of the Clint Kuviak offense is based around getting under center, being able to use play action, and just
65:05having like the mobility kind of to operate in the pocket that I don't think Kirk Cousins has anymore.
65:12It sounded like this quarterback competition was made a lot closer by Mendoza than anyone kind of expected it to be.
65:19It was more of like a begrudging Kirk is the starter was how I interpreted it.
65:25So I think really as early as week three, week four, we see Mendoza.
65:29And from there, I think he does well enough, performs well enough, makes the Raiders offense like closer to league average, respectable
65:37enough to where in like a slightly weaker rookie class where we are always a little bit more biased towards the quarterbacks
65:45for awards, that it ends up with him is kind of how I see it playing out.
65:51But who's your offensive Rookie of the Year prediction, Jacob?
65:54I went back and forth on a couple. And I was tempted to take Jadarian Price here because he's one of the
66:02few rookies that I expect to have a big role who plays on a team that people will watch and pay attention to.
66:10But ultimately, I think I'm going to go with Casey Concepcion.
66:14He's probably not the most likely play. If I was to actually bet Offensive Rookie of the Year based on the odds
66:21in the market, he's probably the one that I would take because I think you're getting a lot of value on him.
66:29And I think he has a good mix of being healthy.
66:33I expect him to have the potential to be the leading target earner on his team from week one.
66:39And I think he's going to pile up the statistics, at least the counting stats, over the course of a season.
66:46So I'll go with Casey as who I think is the best value in the market.
66:52Most likely in a vacuum is probably Jeremiah Love.
66:55All right. That's going to do it for us here today.
66:59Thanks so much, Jacob. Hopefully we gave you guys a nice overview of what to expect for the rookies.
67:06Don't forget to set your lineups if you're watching us on Wednesday, probably just a few hours before NFL kickoff.
67:12Go through, get your league inventory done. I know I'm in a bunch of different leagues on a million different new and
67:20wacky sites this year that I'm going to have to make sure I know what's going on and I have a system in place.
67:28So reminder to do that if you haven't. But yeah, as always, thanks for joining us here on Dynasty Points.
67:35I won't attempt the outro from Tom because I butcher it every time.
67:40But we will see you guys next week. My legs bring me up.
67:44These shoes are much too heavy. Trämmel you always have these spits things?
67:49I mean, are not all the shoes so long?
67:52No, you need Altras. Altras? Altras are like your feet.
67:55With a foot-firmish 10-box. Just a bit more comfortable.
67:59You're going to get your feet with a high-end-to-end.
68:02Okay, that's a dream. More comfort, power, dynamic and dynamic.
68:05All through the Passform. Altra understands that. Altra. Stay out there.
