Dynasty Points

Barkley's role in the Giants offense is expected to be limited and uninspiring. Fantasy Points projects the Giants to have a bottom-two running back offense (alongside the Dolphins), with pessimism driven by the overall offensive situation and uncertainty about whether the team will feature him meaningfully.

Nabers' fantasy value is severely constrained by the Giants' receiver room uncertainty and his health status. If Nabers misses time or returns at half health, the Giants could have either the best or worst wide receiver room in the NFL, creating a high-variance, risky situation. No one else on the team is producing, making Nabers' health and role critical but unpredictable.

Harrison benefits from Michael LaFleur as new Cardinals play caller. Conventional wisdom expects slow, run-heavy offense, but LaFleur showed willingness to unleash veteran QBs in negative game scripts with Jets: 300+ passing yards per game (more than any 2025 NFL team) and 60% pass rate (6th-highest among play callers past 5 years) when removing Zach Wilson starts. In three healthy games with Jacoby Brissett, Harrison posted 18.7 expected fantasy points per game (top-4 WR mark) and 14.9 actual (top-12), alpha over Trey McBride. ADP outside Round 5–6 in both formats despite McBride's expensive cost. 40% chance Harrison is leading receiver; layering high-dropback-volume scenario creates value for elite prospect entering Year 3.

Sampson had one of the most efficient receiving seasons of any rookie running back over the past five years, but his target volume is partially inflated by small-sample situations: 8–9 catches in Week 1 with Joe Flacco (who peppered him repeatedly) and a 50–60 yard screen pass against Raiders in Week 12 (Shadur Jackson's first start). His college receiving profile was run-of-the-mill, not elite like Jameer Gibbs. Under Monken's system, Sampson likely handles passing-down work in 2026, though Judkins showed late-season receiving upside (3–5 targets in final games) that could shift the split if he proves elite.

Judkins benefits from Todd Monken as new Browns play caller; Monken has run efficient offenses with Ravens (Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry), Buccaneers, and Georgia. Monken historically separates primary runner and receiver roles—Dylan Sampson likely handles passing downs. Judkins projects as a two-down back in an offense expected to struggle and lose games in 2026, limiting ceiling. However, Judkins could see Josh Jacobs-level 30+ receptions and 40+ targets if he asserts himself in negative game scripts; 2027 upside (post-top-5-pick, new QB) is more compelling than 2026 production.

Randall is a project running back for the Ravens going as RB53 with an FFPC main event ADP of 226.6, below Justice Hill despite the source believing Justice Hill is not the true backup; Randall has legitimate upside because Derek Henry is signed through 2027 but the Ravens may not extend him given the need to pay Lamar Jackson, leaving Randall with a true runway; he's 6'2", 230 pounds with an unofficial 4.5 40-time—speed that's more than enough to break away on big plays and create separation with Lamar Jackson's help; Justice Hill is a fine change-of-pace back but not a true handcuff; Randall can catch passes (he played WR at Clemson until October of last year), offering legitimate upside; his size and speed are rare for a WR-to-RB convert; pass protection will be key but comes down to willingness more than ability, and Lamar Jackson's play-action heavy offense and offensive line improvements will help; Randall showed improvement on tape every week after converting mid-season; at round 19 in startups (low-end pick even in single-QB leagues), he's going after Caleb Johnson and around Torrey Horton, Pat Freiermuth, and Elijah Arroyo—none of whom have the upside of a 6'2", 230-pound Ravens RB with speed and pass-catching prowess; the source can't remember the last time the Ravens had another RB of that size with that speed and pass-catching ability outside of Derrick Henry.

Koziel is a day-three tight end pick by the Jaguars who has no dynasty ADP and is one of the most productive tight ends in FBS over the past couple of seasons; he has two of the top seven tight end seasons by reception share since 2017, alongside Harold Fannin, Trey McBride (twice), Tyler Warren, Michael Mayer, and Sam Laporta; over the past two seasons he has the most receptions in FBS (five more than Jeremiah Smith); reception share is a highly predictive metric for college-to-pro tight end success; the source believes GM James Gladstone wants to follow NFL trends toward multiple tight end sets (which he cited as reason for drafting Koziel and Nate Berkertcher), while coach Liam Cohn is historically 11-personnel heavy; Koziel fits better into what the Jaguars want to do (spreading the field with multiple pass catchers) than Berkertcher (pure blocker with no college season over 200 receiving yards); if Koziel gets on the field for a handful of games as the second tight end in 12-personnel sets next to Brenton Strange, his elite target-earning profile could translate to NFL production; available at free cost and the source has him on all his taxi squads.

Williams is a third-round rookie wide receiver pick for Washington going as WR63 in single-QB formats and pick 151 in FFPC main event; the source loves the fit despite it being a bit more vibes-based than preferred; he has a clear pathway to production given the thin WR competition (Van Jefferson, Traylon Burks, Deami Brown, Jalen Lane are not impressive) and the fact that outside of Terry McLaurin (who gets 10+ targets per game), someone has to catch passes; new play caller David Blau brings a lot of play-action and under-center work with Jaden Daniels, creating room for underneath and deep work; Williams stands out because he's one of the few rookie WRs not in a double-up landing spot; if he hits 8.5-10 points per game, he could easily become a year-two breakout favorite and see himself jump from 14th-round ADP to the 10th round.

Surratt is a rookie wide receiver sleeper going as WR63 in startups with an elite analytics profile: 2.6 yards per team pass attempt in his first season at Indiana was the third-best mark of any receiver in the class before age 22 (only Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon had better seasons); in his second season he averaged more receiving yards per game than Omar Cooper (a round-one pick); last year he ranked behind only Jeremiah Smith in first downs per route run among all Power Conference receivers; he fell to round four of the NFL draft but landed in the perfect spot with the Ravens, who want to utilize him as a big slot and he's been shining in summer practices catching downfield bombs from Lamar Jackson; he has a legitimate opportunity to carve out playing time by October-November given the thin Ravens WR depth chart behind Zay Flowers and the vulnerability of Rashad Bateman.

Strange was a superior blocker to Evan Ingram from day one, and when the team moved on from Ingram, Strange became the guy for the rest of his rookie contract and is now a rock-solid top-12 tight end, demonstrating the pathway for young tight ends to gain value.

Hill is a tight end sleeper so far down the board he's barely tracked; he was slated as the Patriots' primary blocking tight end but has underrated receiving upside from his final college season at Notre Dame where he posted 2.23 yards per route run and one of the higher ADOTs with a high rate of 15+ yard receptions, though his stats were depressed by heavy blocking usage that won't carry over to the NFL; if the Patriots move on from Hunter Henry, Hill becomes a true every-down guy with route-based upside rare among young tight ends.

Jakob Sanderson uses Nico Collins as a concrete example of a high-scoring contending asset that immediately shifts draft dynamics in a startup. Tapping Collins signals a year-one contention path and forces other managers to adjust their strategy accordingly.

Jakob Sanderson uses Christian McCaffrey as a concrete example of a high-scoring contending asset that immediately shifts draft dynamics in a startup. Tapping McCaffrey signals a year-one contention path and forces other managers to adjust their strategy accordingly. Sanderson cautions against over-committing to contention by taking too many aging stars like McCaffrey, noting that once you've secured top-tier contenders, diminishing returns set in and additional contending assets become less valuable than preserving future draft capital.

Jakob Sanderson cites Rhamondre Stevenson as an example of a narrative-dependent asset that gets continuously pushed down dynasty boards but can provide value for managers who can see past the narrative. Stevenson's value is dependent on understanding the narrative path to his upside, making him a contrarian value pick for those willing to bet against board consensus. Sanderson groups him with Rashad White as examples of undervalued assets.

Jakob Sanderson cites Rashad Bateman as a historical cautionary example of a year-3 wide receiver with theoretical upside that failed to deliver dynasty value. Bateman represents the trap of spending roster value on young players with multiple narrative paths to success who ultimately dissolve into nothing. Sanderson groups him with Jahan Dotson as examples to avoid repeating when evaluating similar bets on players like Jalen Coker.

Jakob Sanderson cites Jahan Dotson as a historical cautionary example of a year-3 wide receiver with theoretical upside that failed to deliver dynasty value. Dotson represents the trap of spending roster value on young players with multiple narrative paths to success who ultimately dissolve into nothing. Sanderson groups him with Rashad Bateman as examples to avoid repeating when evaluating similar bets on players like Jalen Coker.

Jakob Sanderson recommends Cortland Sutton as a boring veteran alternative to young unproven dynasty assets in startup bench construction. Sutton is the type of older player that contending teams might trade for mid-season (e.g., for a future second), making him more valuable than young WRs like Jalen Coker who lack realistic upside scenarios. Sanderson groups him with Chuba Hubbard as a preferred bench fill strategy over speculative youth.

Jakob Sanderson recommends Chuba Hubbard as a boring veteran alternative to young unproven dynasty assets in startup bench construction. Hubbard is the type of older player that contending teams might trade for mid-season (e.g., for a future second), making him more valuable than young WRs like Jalen Coker who lack realistic upside scenarios. Sanderson groups him with Cortland Sutton as a preferred bench fill strategy over speculative youth.

Jakob Sanderson cites Drake London as a historical comparison for players with elite long-term talent but near-term production uncertainty; London exemplifies the productive struggle asset category where dynasty ADP prices in future value despite current-year production concerns.

Jakob Sanderson cites Garrett Wilson as a historical comparison for players with elite long-term talent but near-term production uncertainty; Wilson exemplifies the productive struggle asset category where dynasty ADP prices in future value despite current-year production concerns.

Jakob Sanderson identifies Matthew Golden as an example of a year 2-3 wide receiver without encouraging per-route data to avoid in dynasty startup bench construction; Golden falls into the roster clogger category of young players who seem enticing but lack a realistic upside scenario and should be passed over for boring veterans or rookies.

Jakob Sanderson uses Tee Higgins (referenced as Tedaroa McMillan in the transcript) as an example of a player with strong peripheral indicators but unclear near-term production timeline; fits the productive struggle/tanking asset profile where long-term talent is evident but actual fantasy points may not materialize in year one due to environment/role uncertainty.

Jakob Sanderson cites Tedaroa McMillan as an example of a player with strong peripheral indicators but unclear near-term production timeline; McMillan fits the productive struggle/tanking asset profile where long-term talent is evident but actual fantasy points may not materialize in year one due to environment/role uncertainty. McMillan is the established alpha wide receiver on his offense ahead of Jalen Coker.

Jakob Sanderson highlights Nabers as a prime example of a productive struggle/tanking asset for dynasty startups; despite likely starting slow and potentially missing week one due to injury/production concerns, Sanderson recommends drafting him in the middle of round two as a significant discount on elite talent for teams pursuing a year-one tank strategy.

Jakob Sanderson names Jalen Naylor as a young WR under 25-26 years old to avoid in dynasty startup bench construction; grouped with Coker as a roster clogger trap despite offseason buzz, Naylor lacks the per-route data or clear path to meaningful fantasy production that would justify roster space on a non-contending team.

Jakob Sanderson explicitly identifies Jalen Coker as a roster clogger trap in dynasty startup drafts, particularly for non-contending teams filling bench spots in rounds 8+. Despite acknowledging Coker as a fun player, Sanderson argues he lacks a realistic fantasy upside scenario because he plays on a rough offense and is clearly behind established alpha Tedaroa McMillan; the difficulty in creating a WR2-or-better outcome makes him a poor bench asset compared to boring veterans who contenders might trade for mid-season.

Jakob Sanderson notes that Rhamondre Stevenson continuously gets pushed down and farther down on dynasty boards, but ends up being a value for those who can see it; Stevenson exemplifies a player where there is a realistic path to value if you can navigate the narrative street required to get him to where you need him to be.

Jakob Sanderson cites Jahan Dotson as a cautionary example of a year-three wide receiver who received significant roster value in dynasty startups but whose theoretical upside slowly dissolved into nothing; Dotson exemplifies the trap of investing in young players without realistic value paths.

Jakob Sanderson cites Rashad Bateman as a cautionary example of a year-three wide receiver who received significant roster value in dynasty startups but whose theoretical upside slowly dissolved into nothing; Bateman exemplifies the trap of investing in young players without realistic value paths.

Jakob Sanderson recommends Chuba Hubbard as a boring but valuable alternative to young unproven running backs in dynasty startup bench construction; Hubbard is the type of established player that a contending team might trade a future second for later in the season, making him a more tradeable asset than young players without clear upside paths.

Jakob Sanderson recommends Cortland Sutton as a boring but valuable alternative to young unproven wide receivers in dynasty startup bench construction; Sutton is the type of established player that a contending team might trade a future second for later in the season, making him a more tradeable asset than young players without clear upside paths.

Jakob Sanderson includes Matthew Golden in a group of year-two and year-three wide receivers who lack encouraging per-route data and should be avoided in dynasty startup bench construction; these players appear enticing as young dynasty assets but lack a realistic value upside scenario.

Jakob Sanderson identifies Tedaroa McMillan as an established alpha wide receiver, using him as the reason why Jalen Coker (who is behind McMillan on the same offense) is a poor dynasty bench asset; McMillan's established role and alpha status make him the clear target on his offense.

Jakob Sanderson groups Jalen Naylor with year-two and year-three wide receivers who lack encouraging per-route data and should be avoided in dynasty startup bench construction; these players are enticing because they're young but lack a realistic value upside scenario, making them roster cloggers that should be skipped in favor of more established players or pure rookies.

Jakob Sanderson warns against drafting Jalen Coker in dynasty startup bench spots despite acknowledging he is a fun player; Coker is on a rough offense and is clearly behind established alpha Tedaroa McMillan, making it very hard to create a realistic fantasy upside scenario where he becomes a wide receiver two or better; Sanderson explicitly states Coker is not a good bet for gaining future value on a tanking dynasty team's bench.

Jakob Sanderson references McCaffrey as an aging asset in dynasty startup strategy, suggesting that younger players should be acquired to provide value after McCaffrey's window of contention closes; this is part of a broader discussion about roster construction and managing the lifespan of elite players in dynasty leagues.

Thomas Tipple references Nico Collins as an example of a player whose scoring potential is so high that drafting him immediately shifts a startup draft's dynamics and team-building path toward contention; Collins is positioned as a player whose point-scoring ceiling forces strategic recalibration.

Jakob Sanderson cites Drake London as a historical example of a productive struggle asset in dynasty; London was priced up due to long-term talent indicators but did not immediately convert peripherals into fantasy points, making him a valuable acquisition for tanking teams willing to wait for future production.

Jakob Sanderson cites Garrett Wilson as a historical example of a productive struggle asset in dynasty; Wilson was priced up due to long-term talent indicators but did not immediately convert peripherals into fantasy points, making him a valuable acquisition for tanking teams willing to wait for future production.

Jakob Sanderson references Tee Higgins (referred to as 'Tedaroa McMillan' in transcript, likely a transcription error for a similar player discussion) as an example of a productive struggle asset where peripherals are strong but the timeline for converting those into fantasy points is unclear due to environment concerns; positioned as a longer-term value play for tanking teams despite near-term production uncertainty.