PodcastFrom Dynasty Points
Buy or Sell: The 5 Players Everyone is Wrong About Right Now
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52 min
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Jun 17, 2026
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Wed, June 17, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Deep into the Dynasty offseason, this is Buy or Sell.
0:03Here are 5 players we have to make a live decision about after we give our own analysis to really test if
0:11we believe in what we are saying. This is Dynasty Points, we're back and it starts right now.
0:17Hello everybody, thanks for joining us for another episode of Dynasty Points here on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel.
0:24Lots to get to, really want to cut through this quickly.
0:27Two part episode. What we have here are 5 players.
0:31We are going to give you 5 players. We're going to discuss whether we are buying or selling those players with analysis
0:38and we are blind reacting to trades that have happened recently here in the Fantasy Points front office to see if we
0:46are actually buying or selling if the market is just right.
0:50At the end of the episode, all three of us are going to pick a Dynasty Team from our own portfolios and
0:57decide whether or not we are going to make a trade for or offer a trade out of a player that we have discussed today.
1:06Let us know if we are buying or selling these players on your dynasty teams, what your roster exposure are, or if
1:13there's a players that should have been on this list this week that just are not.
1:19All that being said, I don't want to waste any time.
1:22Jakob Sanderson, you have been away. Welcome back on home soil.
1:26Happy to be back. Big trade happened while you were away.
1:30I know you are anxious to talk about them, but AJ Brown was traded.
1:35Let's talk about if you are buying or selling because as you tweeted, this is kind of an unusual situation for you.
1:42This puts me in a tough position, quite frankly.
1:45We've talked about wide receivers who have been consistent fantasy wide receiver ones who have a noticeable fall off in their metrics,
1:53even if they're still fairly good players. And I tend to be always screaming, just sell these players, sell these players.
2:00There's far more risk of going all the way to zero much faster than you might think than to them bouncing back.
2:07This dates back to what I think is one of the best articles on fantasy football from Adam Harstad, who wrote about
2:15how wide receiver aging is not this gradual curve.
2:18And the only reason why it looks like a gradual curve is because different players go from elite to nothing at different ages.
2:26And when you aggregate that out, it looks like a curve, but in actuality, most elite wide receivers tend to be very stable until they are very not.
2:36And so when we start to see the drop off, it is infrequent that we see major remounts.
2:42So my kind of long view heuristic pushes me to be out on AJ Brown.
2:47And yet I'm pretty open to making an exception in AJ Brown's case.
2:51And I can admit that maybe part of that is just that he is one of my favorite players and has been for a very long time.
3:00But I think that there's a lot that's going in his favor from a stealing perspective.
3:06First off, AJ Brown is at a very different level as a peak than Alan Robinson was.
3:12This is a guy where until this year, he had never been below 2.5 yards per outrun in his career until this most recent season.
3:20He was a guy who was largely a mid to low end wide receiver one based on being in low volume passing
3:28offenses, but posted metrics that suggested that during his prime age 24 through 26 in the right circumstance, he could have been
3:35competing with Jamar Chase or peak Tyreek Hill or peak Devante Adams to be the wide receiver one overall.
3:42And now finally, for the first time in his career, he's in one of the best environments any wide receiver will be in in the NFL.
3:51He's in a team that is going to pass at at least a reasonable rate on the New England Patriots with one
3:58of the better quarterbacks in fantasy football and without anyone else on the team who you would say is an absolute target
4:06hog that he can't come in and completely alpha if he's peak AJ Brown.
4:11And so I look at his ADP right now, you have it highlighted on the screen at the 603 and the 5-6 turn.
4:18And I just say I accept that there is a risk that he's fallen off to a very major degree and will continue falling off more.
4:27But I also think there's a chance that last year was injury related that maybe he can come back from that.
4:34It was personality related that even if it wasn't like on each given play, he's making the active choice not to try.
4:42I think if you're just in a really ticked off mood all the time, that type of malaise can just get into
4:49your head and you lose focus rep to rep.
4:53And for at least one season, if he's healthy and extremely motivated in this incredible situation, he has, I think, legitimate wide
5:00receiver one overall this season contention ability, which means that he would probably jump in value.
5:06You could probably treat him next offseason or more importantly, you could just put 17, 18, 19 points per game on your dynasty roster.
5:14I see guys going alongside him that I think don't have anywhere near that type of production upside.
5:20And I'm just willing to take the shot and accept the consequences.
5:24It's important to note we've seen the aging veteran change teams and we've usually gotten a discount.
5:30We are not the type of people to sit here and try to break down the inner workings of a locker room
5:37who was out doing what, no matter how nefarious it's reported to be.
5:42That's not our job. Our job is to identify a value.
5:46Ryan Heath, you and I were going back and forth on this.
5:50You're not getting the Devante Adams level discount when he joined the Raiders.
5:54So I was going back and forth on whether or not I was as in Adams was in that seventh round area,
6:02but you are getting a bit younger of a player and a more kind of exciting offense.
6:07And I feel like the reason we're not seeing that discount and this may be reflected in the trades.
6:14We have not looked yet. It's the Drake may effect as well.
6:18We talked about this last year. Any wide receiver or any weapon going to the Patriots gets that bump.
6:24So I feel like that's why his ADP is kind of still hovering in and around that pre mega fall off category.
6:32So I'm with you on this one for now.
6:35I'm more inclined to buy. We'll see what happens when we look at the trades here.
6:41Right now. Ryan, while I'm pulling this up, anything to add?
6:44Yeah, I just say it's entirely debatable to me whether Brown actually did really decline last year.
6:50Dwayne McFarland at Fantasy Life had an awesome article out kind of reviewing like midseason injuries.
6:56And what we saw from week 10 on after AJ Brown got the bye week and a few weeks of rest from
7:03the hamstring issue he was dealing with. From that point on, he was averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game.
7:10He was back up at 2.6 starts per out run.
7:13He was a top 12 wide receiver by yards per out run from week 10 through the wild card game.
7:20So I think you can easily say that he was just injured for a lot of the early season.
7:26He didn't really decline and that. Yeah, now it's a exciting, enticing upside bet on the Patriots.
7:32I'm probably going to be a little bit less willing to pay that price in Dynasty than Jacob is.
7:39But I have come around to like, yeah, he's basically should go as like a late round to redraft pick.
7:45And yeah, your tolerance for that risk in Dynasty is just going to vary.
7:50Okay, so I've gotten the trades here on the screen.
7:54I'm just going to read them out and we're going to go buying or selling.
7:59We're going to do a couple of these. We've limited this to four assets.
8:04We're not looking for the 10 pieces on each side type deal here.
8:08Real simple, real concise. It is decision making time on buy or sell for AJ Brown.
8:14We have AJ Brown or Garrett Wilson in a super flex.
8:17I will take, yeah, Jacob's muted, but I will take.
8:21Clearly Garrett Wilson. Clearly Garrett Wilson. Okay. Some people would argue that Garrett Wilson's ceiling not really there.
8:27He's a hashtag jet. It's Geno Smith plus future.
8:30So a lot of people would weigh the three-year outlook maybe in terms of upside.
8:35But I'm with you guys. I'm on the Garrett Wilson side.
8:39We have George Pickens or Chris Godwin in AJ Brown in a super flex tight end premium.
8:45Hmm. I would rate that as close to an even trade, but I think I would maybe slightly lean to the George
8:52Pickens side, but that would be pretty close to even for me.
8:56It's not like that close to even for me.
8:59I would pretty solidly go Pickens. I don't think it's horrible.
9:03If you're trying to contend or what have you, squeeze an extra player out of it.
9:09But I don't think there's a much greater chance of AJ Brown averaging more fantasy points per game than George Pickens.
9:16I'd put that at like close to a coin flip for 2026.
9:20I actually prefer this deal if it was like a young asset or a pick in the Chris Godwin slot, just because
9:27then I could see like, well, I think AJ Brown's going to outscore George Pickens this year, which I do.
9:34Um, and then I'm also, so I'm getting better immediately and I'm adding something to back fill the value loss.
9:41The double old for one young is, is a tough one for me.
9:45That's a tough sell, but I'm a little, if I'm a true contender, George Pickens numbers when CD lamb was healthy was not really outstanding.
9:54I think there's a very real chance that George Pickens is hovering in that fake top 12 range, but pure value.
10:01I agree with you guys with George Pickens, pure points.
10:05I think I kind of want the AJ Brown side here for the next couple of years.
10:10I think George Pickens re-signs in Dallas. I don't think that's necessarily a good thing.
10:16Uh, AJ Brown versus the 106. I would go AJ Brown.
10:19Yeah, I'll take AJ Brown here as well. Very quickly.
10:23And then we have AJ Brown or Canadian Chase Brown and a 28 second.
10:28We're getting into the 2028 picks now. This is an interesting trade because AJ Brown's a lot older, but I don't feel
10:35like Chase Brown is like an incredible talent. It would not surprise me if this is a guy that, um, is, is
10:43not maintaining his status as a round two redraft level asset into his late twenties.
10:48Um, so I view them as pretty similar from an outlook perspective and I have them, I think literally back to back in my seasonal rankings.
10:57Um, so I get the extra two. I'll go with the Chase Brown side.
11:01Yeah, that's what I was going to say. I kind of don't get why the second has to be in this deal.
11:09Like they're just to switch positions that you're getting points out of to me that they're very similar guys.
11:15So yeah, give me the side with the two.
11:18I didn't even know this when you asked the question.
11:22I just looked at my dynasty rankings. I have AJ Brown literally one spot ahead of Chase Brown in my dynasty rankings right now.
11:30So obviously I would take a second to move down one spot.
11:34I'm more, I'm more inclined to take AJ Brown here.
11:38I'm not really too concerned about the 20, 28 second.
11:41I feel like I can net that back somewhere else down the line.
11:45If you're an RB heavy team, this obviously makes sense.
11:49And let's go with the last trade here really quick.
11:52AJ Brown or a player that I am consistently at odds with because he has great stretches of like four to six games and then falls off.
12:01But it's AJ Brown versus Nico Collins. Well, I feel bad here because I'm looking at a bunch of other trades on
12:09this list where I like the AJ Brown side that we're not going to get to.
12:14But this one I'm remaining on the non AJ Brown side.
12:18I think these are pretty similar assets. Again, these are wide receivers.
12:22I have ranked right next to each other in seasonal leagues.
12:26Nico is I think two years younger than AJ Brown.
12:30I haven't seen the level of drop off yet that we have with AJ Brown.
12:35He feels more secure to me. So even if I like AJ's upside a little higher this year, I'm going with Nico and dynasty.
12:43Yeah, give me Nico as well for similar reasons.
12:46I'm going to continue to bet against Nico Collins.
12:49I will take AJ Brown here because I think he I think Jaden Higgins is awesome.
12:54And I think Jaden Higgins is going to be a legitimate problem for Nico Collins moving forward.
13:00I don't think AJ Brown has that competition at all.
13:04So we'll see. We'll see. All right. Ryan, you're up here on the player discussion.
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14:00Er ist, especially post-multiple ACL tears. I don't know that anything you can say about him from his college profile is going to be all that meaningful.
14:09So what we have on Jonathan Brooks right now is basically a bunch of hype.
14:14We have Cameron Wolfe saying on the Insiders podcast that Brooks could end up handling leadback responsibilities over a Chuba Hubbard.
14:21If we go to the local beat, Mike Kaye of the Charlotte Observer recently said that he expects Brooks to have effectively
14:29Rico Dowdle's role from the first few weeks of last season.
14:33For those that don't remember, Hubbard was kind of much more like at least a two down workhorse.
14:39Dowdle mixed in a little in the passing game, a little bit in like some red zone stuff.
14:45But Hubbard was like the clear lead back in that configuration.
14:49What I would say to this in terms of just projecting out the Panthers backfield is Dave Canales, more than maybe any
14:56other coach in the NFL, very much runs a backfield meritocracy.
15:00Whichever player is playing better, is more efficient, is providing more explosive runs to the offense, is going to get more touches.
15:07We have seen this from him in terms of Rico Dowdle usurping Chuba Hubbard at points last year.
15:14And then Hubbard kind of coming back and getting more work down the stretch as he got healthier.
15:20Canales is very reactive and sensitive to how his running backs are playing.
15:24So with that in mind, yeah, I'm open to the idea that Brooks could be more than just like a backup or a handcuff this year.
15:33That he could have a meaningful role in the offense.
15:36But really where my issue comes from is I think people just kind of from the vibes and what I've seen in the community and the trades.
15:46I think people are getting out over their skis in terms of this.
15:50Even if you want to say like in the best possible outcome that Jonathan Brooks usurps Hubbard this year, goes into next season as like the presumptive starter.
16:00A, this is still, this will always just be a thing hanging over his head that Dave Canales will always swap out
16:07a running back if he sees fit to do so.
16:11So this is not like a round one running back with a ton of draft capital attached.
16:16Brooks is not like super young. He just kind of will immediately go into that tier of running backs like Kyron Williams
16:24for a lot of his career or what Jacob just said about Chase Brown right now.
16:29We're dynasty managers. I think just won't be that convinced that this is like a stable, super talented asset that is going
16:37to carry value for years and years to come.
16:40So I just really think about if you were trying to acquire Brooks or if he's on your team, how much more value can he realistically gain?
16:49Even if he had like a pretty solid run out.
16:53Let's say he gets up to like a 60-40 role and beats out Hubbard by the end of the season.
17:00And in that sense, like what are you really winning where we'll look at trades, but I suspect that you can get
17:07like 80% of that kind of reward right now if you just cash out on the hype.
17:13But I'm interested to see some of these trades, but that's kind of where I lean.
17:18Just that I don't think he's ever going to be viewed as like a super legitimate dynasty asset by a lot of the community.
17:27So I'd almost rather just take my gain now if I've been holding him on a rebuilder or got him as a
17:34throw in somewhere or what have you. I'm interested to get into the trades.
17:39I think I'm more optimistic. I just think if he gets back in the game, he looks good.
17:45He takes over the job. So people I think are going to look at him back as the fairly high pedigree prospect that he was.
17:54I can say ranking wise, you just showed the screen there at him sitting at 159 in your database.
18:00I haven't ranked way higher than that. I haven't ranked at 118 in my dynasty rankings.
18:05So I'm excited to see some of the trades.
18:09All right, let's get right into it. You saw by the ADP, I feel like I'm going to be more in on startup drafts, right?
18:17He's going extremely late in startup drafts. We have him at the 14.3.
18:22That is a price I'm willing to draft at RB43.
18:25I think that's a very reasonable price to draft.
18:28However, I feel like you're going to have to take him about a round or two earlier than that.
18:35Let's test his startup cost versus his trade cost.
18:38Let's head over to the trade database and set up Jonathan Brooks.
18:42Here we are with Jonathan Brooks, the exact same setup for assets or less in this deal.
18:48Remembering his ADP price at the 14.3. Let's see if we are buying or selling at some of these prices like Ryan laid out.
18:56It's going to be very interesting. First trade up, we have Jonathan Brooks or Brian Thomas Jr.
19:02in a straight up one for one move. I mean, I'm looking at these first two trades.
19:07You can tell that Jonathan Brooks has a wide range of value because both of these trades look flipping ridiculous to me.
19:15And in the opposite directions, I'm slamming Brian Thomas Jr.
19:18here. Yeah. Give me Brian Thomas Jr. very, very easily.
19:22Yeah. Really, my rule is going to be like any legit dynasty asset, I am taking over Brooks.
19:28I'm with you guys here on this one. Let's go with the second trade, Jonathan Brooks and Marvin Harrison Jr., who we
19:35are not obvious fans of on this program. However, we also have Kenneth Gainwell and the 202.
19:41This trade is equally insane in the exact opposite direction.
19:45I have no idea what's happening here about the Brooks side.
19:48I don't know how much it has to do with Brooks.
19:52Like, I would, even if you jerk Brooks out of this deal, I would do this deal for Marvin Harrison.
19:59Yeah, this is just like basically free Marvin Harrison Jr.
20:02Give me that. I might, I don't know. I might turn around on him this year.
20:08I may actually. I'm in on Marvin Harrison. Yeah, for, I'm thinking like.
20:12I'm very ahead of the market. I might end up.
20:16Best ball. And I'm pretty ahead of the market.
20:19I've traded for him twice in Dynasty this offseason already.
20:22I look at this as a free Jonathan Brooks, in my opinion, the way this trade is laid out.
20:29Like, I would take Marvin over Gainwell in the 202.
20:32Easy, right? Like, yeah, this is a very interesting trade.
20:36And then we look at the third one. It's Jonathan Brooks just for the 202.
20:41This is the first trade that looks like it makes sense.
20:44Like, I can actually see how both teams came to this trade.
20:49I prefer Jonathan Brooks. Yeah, I think 202 is about right.
20:52I think on the previous, like, lost version of this podcast of this show, I said basically anyone I have ranked below
21:00Jeremy Bernard, I would just take Brooks over without a second thought.
21:04That's, like, basically right where Bernard goes. So, I think that's, yeah, that's, like, literally who's on the clock is kind of what would determine that for me.
21:13Yeah, I'm quite easily going to take Jonathan Brooks here on this side very, very easily for me.
21:20I think the upside there is pretty palpable for that price.
21:23This one is another obvious one to me, but Cortland Sutton and a 20, oh my goodness, a 2027 fourth or Jonathan Brooks.
21:31Brooks. Easy. I don't know if it's easy, but I'll take Brooks.
21:35Sure. It's going to be easy to me when we talk about the next player here on this list.
21:42Like, trying to trade Cortland Sutton is, like, a Herculean task.
21:46So, it's, like, how much value are you really getting from him in your lineup?
21:51Like, a little, but, like, I'm so willing to eat that opportunity cost for the upside ticket.
21:57Yeah. The last trade we're going to look at really comes down to how much weight does a 2027 first hold?
22:04It's James Cook in a 2027 third or Jonathan Brooks in a 2027 first.
22:08Remember, these are all trades from the last, well, just the last couple of days.
22:14Just this last week here from June, you know, 15th to June 12th.
22:18This trade is impossible for me to judge without knowing what shape the team is in that the 27 first belongs to.
22:26I'm just going to go ahead and assume it projects mid.
22:29This is a 1QB. Okay. That's interesting. I'll just assume it's a mid first for the sake of content.
22:36And I'll say that I probably would need to do a little bit better if I was trying to sell James Cook.
22:43I'm assuming this person is tearing down. I'll soft take that side, but, like, maybe this 2027 one projects to be, like, the 103.
22:52And if that's the case, I'd certainly prefer that side.
22:55Yeah, I think especially in 1QB, I would take the Cook side of this just because of how that affects, like, the
23:02value of any 27 firsts, but especially, like, not the 101.
23:06So, yeah, give me James Cook on this side.
23:09Let's move to the next player here that we are going to be discussing, a player that I have just been falling
23:17in love with more and more as I go through this dynasty process, which is a little bit odd for me because
23:24I've never really been in on Jalen Waddle. We talked about when we were doing our rookie count up back on Full
23:32Tilt when we had the Fantasy Points legend Matt Donnelly on discussing Waddle, how high he was on.
23:38You can see from 2022, really peaked in 2023, and he's been on a sharp decline.
23:43I'm in, and it is purely with his fit with the Broncos and what they do.
23:49Graphic on screen here for our YouTube and Spotify users.
23:52And I will vocalize what we're showing here. Denver runs more play action than pretty much any other team in the league.
24:00The Broncos run a 30.1% play action rate. The NFL average last season, 27.0.
24:05And Waddle in Miami last year with significantly worse quarterback play was so much better in play action.
24:11I mean, we're talking 1.74 yards per route run versus a 4.17 with play action.
24:16A negative 11.2 fantasy points versus expected versus a 20.8 over for the same statistic.
24:21A higher target share on play action routes than without.
24:25And a first down per route run that doubles.
24:28And Ryan, with all your work that you've done, you know first downs per route run is a big deal stat.
24:35The Denver Broncos sent away a first round pick.
24:38Jalen Waddle's already paid. He's a new weapon, a great fit at a better price.
24:43If I were running a fantasy football grocery store, that would be the punchline.
24:48Buy him up as much as you can. The ADP is not too bad right now.
24:53For Waddle, you can draft him. I am hopeful that when we look at the trades, you can trade for him.
25:00And not to give too much away, but I'm excited to get into the trading from an actual team.
25:07Because I think there's something kind of special going to happen here on this program a little bit later.
25:13He's being drafted as a wide receiver three. He's at the 710 right now with ADP that I pulled from real leagues.
25:21Just like the trades. These are all real leagues that have actually happened.
25:25Real money on the line. These are not made up.
25:29This is the real deal. That's a great price to me.
25:33Beside Sam Darnold. Beside Derrick Henry and Arande Gadsden.
25:36I think he's the perfect pick. And I also believe that he is hopefully the perfect trade candidate.
25:42I will let you guys kind of add whatever you want to while I pull up our guy, Jalen Waddle.
25:49Jacob? I'm just excited to see the trades. I've been drafting Waddle consistently ahead of ADP in best ball.
25:55To me, he's the last guy before a teardrop.
25:58I've been excited about him. He's a guy that I've been in on in most formats for each of the last couple of years.
26:06I thought he had a really under-the-radar, strong bounce-back season last season.
26:10And gets to go to an offense that now projects to throw a lot more passes than the one he's leaving in Miami.
26:18I'm really optimistic about him this year. I also think Hortland Sutton has become fairly overrated.
26:24He's been really reliant on just the sheer amount of route volume that he's been able to have in a Denver offense that passes a lot.
26:33His per-route metrics are entirely mediocre, despite being next to fairly middling competition.
26:37I think Jalen Waddle is going to out-target him by a very clear amount in the pecking order in Denver.
26:44And I'm excited to see it. Yeah, I basically agree.
26:47Jalen Waddle, since 2022, so once Tyree Kill got to Miami, since then, Waddle ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per outrun.
26:55And if you look at that list of guys by yards per outrun, it's basically Waddle and a ton of guys that
27:03are above like a 30% plus target share over that time frame.
27:07So, yeah, going to a more pass-heavy offense, going to an offense where he's not competing with a Tyree Kill, where I
27:14think Corlin Sutton is going to be much easier for him to alpha.
27:19We could just see alpha Jalen Waddle this year.
27:22I'm super open to it. I like the offensive environment.
27:25So, yeah, I suspect I'm going to be into this, and I'm going to like some of the Waddle sides of these.
27:33I agree. I believe Bo Nix led the league in pass attempts last year.
27:38Like, this is definitely a team that is not afraid to chuck the ball.
27:42And, look, you can throw all your Bo Nix doubts out the window.
27:47We've seen back-to-back years of just electric fantasy football play.
27:50The arm is not a concern. I mean, who's going to forget the back foot dart from, like, the two-yard line in between two defenders to Marvin Mims?
28:00I mean, we're talking about a team that's looked for speed, basically tried to create Jalen Waddle in the aggregate with Franklin and Mims.
28:08Now Sean Payton has that guy. Let's look at the trades here.
28:12Jalen Waddle, Trevion Henderson for Devon A-Chan. A-Chan. Ooh, that is an interesting deal.
28:17Man. I mean, I'd rate it as pretty darn close to even.
28:21Maybe I'm going to slightly lean to the A-Chan side just because he's the flashiest asset.
28:26I think you can do the most with him.
28:30I'd probably, if I had A-Chan and I was looking to sell him, I'd probably be looking to trade him for, like,
28:37a top 24 startup pick versus two guys at a lower value.
28:41But it's a tough one. Yeah, very close. I'll lean A-Chan.
28:45But, yeah, I don't feel amazing about it. That one could definitely go either way.
28:50I'm more willing to go Waddle and Henderson here.
28:53I think the year two breakout for Henderson is very possible.
28:57We're really going to hope that the benching over small mistakes is a thing of the past here in year two.
29:04As much as I love Ramondre Stevenson, you look at Henderson's ADP.
29:08That value feels safe right now. And I think new offense, the contract was a little bit fake in the guaranteed money for A-Chan.
29:16And I think not having McDaniel there is a serious concern.
29:20So I'm willing to get out at A-Chan at this price.
29:24Similar trade structure, same piece on the other side.
29:27But we got Waddle and Ken Walker or A-Chan.
29:30This side I go with the pair. Very similar trade that I just like Ken Walker more than Trevion Henderson.
29:37So I'm going with that side. Yeah, I only have A-Chan and Walker a few running back spots apart in my rankings.
29:44There's probably a little more value than that would necessarily imply as a gap.
29:49But that's plenty for me. I'm also concerned about A-Chan this year, to be clear.
29:54This is, I guess, the first year of his career that I'm not feverishly touting him.
30:00Same. It's very easy to see how this could go poorly with Malik Willis and Bobby Slovic, I guess, is what I'll say.
30:08That's for sure. Yeah. Yeah, I was obviously on the Waddle side in the previous trade.
30:13I'm definitely on the Waddle side on this one.
30:16Moving on, we have Waddle and A-Chan or Jameer Gibbs and a 27-3.
30:21Is there a rule out there that if you're doing a Jalen Waddle trade that Devon A-Chan has to be involved somehow?
30:28This trade is probably very fair in market value, but this is where we're getting into my bearishness on Devon A-Chan's outlook this year.
30:36If you subbed out A-Chan for another player of similar value and paired it with Waddle, I'm probably more inclined to be on that side.
30:45But I go Gibbs here. Yeah, I go Gibbs here as well.
30:49Yeah, I'd love to pay that to get Gibbs right now, I'd say.
30:53Yeah, I'm very easily taking the Jameer Gibbs side here.
30:57So I don't think we need to speak much on that.
31:01Don't want to upset Lions fans, but we're on your side on this one.
31:05From June 12th, Jalen Waddle or Jaden Reed and a 27-2.
31:09I mean, look, everybody knows I love Jaden Reed, but I would go with Jalen Waddle here.
31:15Yeah, I would happily add a 2 to Jaden Reed to get Jalen Waddle.
31:20That's an awesome trade. Oh, this next one, I'm going to say the exact same thing about 2.
31:26You can read it out, Tom. Yeah, I think...
31:29Oh, screw Michael Wilson. I'm very much in agreement with you guys.
31:33It's Jalen Waddle or Michael Wilson and a 27-3.
31:36Value all over the place. We're very easily taking Waddle here.
31:40So ADP looks good, and the trade market seems mostly pretty good, except for some high-tier ones that split the group a little bit.
31:48Jacob, back to you. Another player you want to discuss quick.
31:52Yeah, I want to talk about Jalen Waddle's not really former quarterback, but I guess he was for like two weeks, and
31:59maybe one of the reasons why we're not that in on Devon Achan.
32:04I want to talk about Malik Willis. So Malik Willis is the most Pandora's box, Schrodinger's cat, whatever you want to call it, in fantasy football this year.
32:13He's a guy that we have barely seen play quarterback in the National Football League, has under a half season's worth of starts.
32:21I believe has a career high of 23 pass attempts.
32:25He averages under 20 per game, even in games that he's played the vast majority of snaps in.
32:31But we also know that he has a lot of upside traits.
32:35He was remarkably efficient, albeit on very low volume, in his starts with the Green Bay Packers.
32:41And he has an extremely high rush rate, both as a scrambler and on design running opportunities.
32:47And for as long as we've been playing fantasy football, we know that there is QB1 upside whenever you get a quarterback
32:54who runs as often as Malik Willis does. For me, in dynasty, this basically comes down to a pure gamble.
33:01I think that he is set up to start probably the entire season for the Miami Dolphins.
33:07And I would be genuinely surprised if he was not at least a high-end QB2 for as long as he's starting, based
33:14on how much I expect him to run. If he's actually a better quarterback than I expect him to be, he could pretty easily be a low-end QB1.
33:24And now the question is, can he play well enough this year in a very poor environment where his wide receiver room
33:31is being led by essentially three rookies, Malik Washington and Greg Bulsich, to actually earn himself a starting job beyond this year?
33:39It's a pretty minimal commitment to him financially beyond 2026.
33:42So I think it's a true audition season. I guess I would be a slight buy at his current cost, but I
33:50think it's going to be very team and very roster dependent because we're talking about a high-risk, high-reward asset.
33:56I'm really excited to look at the specific trades.
33:59I am as well. Yeah, I'll just say on Willis, Tom had my article up on screen a minute ago.
34:06No need to bring it back up, Tom, but just to rattle off a couple interesting things from that one.
34:13Malik Willis by EPA per dropback over the past two seasons was about double the efficiency of Josh Allen last year, 35%
34:21more efficient than Lamar Jackson's amazing 2024 season. Even irregardless of the design running stuff, he has been so statistically impressive in the limited sample we have.
34:30Of course, that's like three starts for the Packers.
34:33But our last small sample EPA guys were Brock Purdy, his rookie year, and Sam Darnold with the Panthers in terms of guys that it looked really weird.
34:42Why is their EPA so high? And both of those guys turned into legitimate NFL quarterbacks and dynasty assets.
34:49So there is some appeal here. This is a bet I usually make more in redraft leagues than in dynasty.
34:56That's just kind of how I play. But yeah, I'm really interested to see what the costs end up being here.
35:03He's the type of player that you roster when they become a meme.
35:07He was a meme on draft night. He's not one of the first type of players that you really cut because, again, you could end up in...
35:17It doesn't take much to be a starter. We've very much seen that.
35:21So let's look at some of the trades here and how this works.
35:26Same deal. Four assets or fewer. We have Malik Willis or the 111 here in 2026.
35:31I'm going to take Malik Willis pretty decisively. Yeah, I will as well.
35:35Interesting. That's obviously a contending team more than likely.
35:38So I understand that 100%. We've got Malik Willis or Fantasy Point's favorite, Parker Washington.
35:44Man, that's tough. I've been kind of Parker Washington-pilled in recent weeks.
35:48I think this is too high upside, extremely low downside.
35:51I have them ranked very close. I'm looking at my dynasty rankings right now.
35:56I have them 94 and 99. Slight edge to Malik Willis.
36:00Yeah, I'll give the slight edge to Washington, but I don't think I feel that differently about either player from what Jacob just said.
36:08I think that's fair. I need Malik Willis on almost all my rosters, so I'm probably just going to lean Malik Willis just on play style alone.
36:17And here comes the big differential in terms of prices in the next two trades here.
36:23From the 14th of June, Malik Willis and a 26-4.
36:26Oh, that's a league that I think I'm in.
36:29And if you're in Devy leagues, fours typically mean first round Devy picks.
36:34That's exactly what this is. Yeah, so it's actually a move back from like the early part to the late part of the Devy first round.
36:42Anyway, you can cut that, but that's what that is.
36:46I'm in that league. No, I'm not good at that.
36:49That's awesome. The fact that you just identified that.
36:52Moving back in your Devy draft is probably a good move if you're picking up Malik Willis is my guess.
36:59Yeah. Not that I know anything about Devy, but I have to imagine getting Malik Willis.
37:05Because in Devy leagues, usually the first two or three rounds are reserved for rookies that weren't owned.
37:11And then four, five, and six are the Devy supplemental rounds.
37:15There we go. You can now, you know, Ferris G, I know you're watching and I know you're listening.
37:21We talked Devy on this here program this week just for you.
37:25Malik Willis and one of my personal favorites, Jaden Higgins for Zay Flowers.
37:30This is a little ridiculous. I'm taking Zay Flowers.
37:33Yeah, this trade is like engineered to try to make me say the Willis side because I also really like Higgins.
37:40But yeah, give me Flowers. This feels fairly ridiculous to me.
37:44And I will very easily take Zay Flowers here.
37:47We got Malik Willis and Cam Scadabo. Or favorite of the program, Luther Burden and a 26 third.
37:53I mean, look, I'm a proud owner of a Luther Burden jersey.
37:57I do have this graded pretty darn close to a toss-up in my rankings.
38:02I'll just say Burden like for the meme, just so I can be consistent of being the most pro Burden person on the planet.
38:10But I have this really tight. Yeah, there you go.
38:13I will take the Willis and Scadabo side. That's two.
38:17I think like similarly kind of high upside bets to Burden.
38:20I think Burden's more likely to hit than either of them individually.
38:25But I think you can pretty easily like win on that side of the trade, getting those two shots.
38:31I'll take the Luther Burden side here. I think Luther Burden has the greatest opportunity to reach the top four, top three
38:39rounds and startups really by just not being a total zero.
38:42I feel like the Dynasty community is going to shoot him up if he does anything.
38:48So I'm going to take the upside wins championships types.
38:51You're already seeing concern. There's already so much concern in the draft cycle about any running back that potentially went to the Giants plus the ankle.
39:00And then like Jacob laid out pretty well, it was not injury concern, but not really a commitment to him with a
39:08presumed very strong quarterback class here in 2027. I will just say I made quickly.
39:13I want to disagree with one thing you said, which is that I think Burden has to do more than like just
39:20kind of a little bit of anything to like maintain value or gain value.
39:25I actually think we're pretty harsh on the guys that we steam up in Dynasty and get really excited about that then disappoint.
39:33Like look at Brian Thomas Jr.'s ADP. Look at Marvin Harrison Jr.'s ADP.
39:37Look at Ladd McConkie. Like doing not much, but still be doing a lot more than any of those three did last year.
39:45Yeah, but have you also considered like a rubber band effect to these guys, I guess is what I'm saying.
39:52I don't think that it, there's like a soft valuation like built in for like the super hyped guys at all.
39:59Luther Burden was worth a first a week after Jacob suggested that he would be worth a first six months from when
40:07we just mentioned it, but, and he hadn't broken out.
40:10He hadn't really broken out yet at that point either.
40:14So you're not factoring the, uh, he's electric slash.
40:17He's a baller, uh, slash Ben Johnson slash everything else bears.
40:20So I think maybe there's, there's missing a little bit of that.
40:25I did do a real life trade for Malik Willis.
40:28I traded mayor Lloyd, and I believe the two Oh four for Malik Willis and a fourth.
40:34So I I've actively gone out and worked on some of those Ryan last player.
40:39We're going to talk about quick before we decide to make some live action trades here.
40:44Yeah, this one's super quick and easy. Uh, we're talking Matthew golden.
40:48Uh, this is just one of the bigger cells to me right now.
40:53Uh, according to my prospect model, golden is one of the worst, like late round one, early round two prospects we've seen
41:00in the last couple of years, uh, in terms of guys below the 45th percentile between like pick 17 to 48.
41:08Uh, it's him. It's Jonathan Mingo, Dejan stripling, shout out to John stripling, uh, Jalen Polk, Keon Coleman, Ricky Pierce, Saul, Dante Pettis.
41:15That's our list of like analytics, analytics comparables we're working with.
41:19Uh, he didn't really do anything in his rookie year to make me come off of that opinion.
41:25Uh, this to me, like anyone getting, getting excited about like a full on full-time role for golden, just because the Packers,
41:33uh, receiving core has been with like winnowed down.
41:36I would say just save your enthusiasm for Christian.
41:39Watson for Tucker craft, maybe for Jaden Reed. Like I, I just any bounce in a Matthew golden valuation.
41:46I'm just trying to get them off my teams.
41:49I did draft him in a couple of leagues last year, uh, because he was like falling like further than a round
41:56one pick should be, uh, in some of these like super numbers, like Twitter pilled leagues.
42:02But I instantly regretted it. Cause you can't actually sell him in those leagues now, uh, as it turns out.
42:08I don't know what happened over the last couple of months.
42:12It dipped. And all of a sudden he's back at one 16.3 after the other two wide receivers got paid.
42:19And Tucker craft looks like he's ready to go week one.
42:23I don't know what happened, but that ADP is on the uptick and I don't fully understand it.
42:29I'm very excited to get into the trade. Let's do that here.
42:33We have the test, the trade test. Here we are with Matthew golden.
42:38We have Braylon Allen or Matthew golden. Well, that's bizarre.
42:41Matthew golden. I mean, he's a real player and Braylon Allen.
42:45Isn't it'd be 250 pounds. Now he's Derek Henry.
42:48Oh my God. Oh, we have Matthew golden or the two Oh nine and three Oh nine.
42:54That is not inspiring. Um, you guys set this up.
42:57Like we're all going to dump on Matthew golden, but I'm taking him easily.
43:02And he's first two. Uh, keep in mind. That's a one quarterback.
43:06Even worse. Yeah. Wow. Damn. Yeah. I thought I could have like a contrary opinion there, but damn, not in one QB.
43:13What are we doing? That's why we do the blind trade tests.
43:17Uh, we have Matthew golden and the two Oh six or the three Oh seven and the one 11, uh, Matthew golden side.
43:25Again, the one 11 sucks. It's the worst pick to have in rookie drafts this year.
43:31I would, I would just take the one 11.
43:34I I'd take Denzel Boston, like marginally better prospect.
43:37I think then golden, then like you'd have the, we don't have the information of him kind of flopping in year one yet.
43:45Like that. That's fine to me. I don't feel like that's wrong.
43:49We'd rather have another crappy wider super prospect who got drafted later and is on the Browns instead of the guy that's
43:56going to run 90% or outs of Jordan love for sure.
44:00Oh, we have Matthew golden, the 26, four for the three Oh three and the three Oh five and a super show me one.
44:08Can you show me one piece of evidence that someone values Matthew golden?
44:13Cause this just makes me want to trade for Matthew golden.
44:17There we go. The one down. You finally got one.
44:20Ricky Pierce, all Matthew golden, German Bernard, the old bill Simmons, poo poo platter for Tedder.
44:26McMillan. Give me T Mac. That one's crazy. Yeah.
44:29See, and that's why we do the blind test.
44:32It's analysis analysis. We looked at the ADP. We looked at the ADP trend and then we look what actually is happening in real leagues.
44:40And now it kind of suggests that maybe he is a sneaky buy, even with fairly low expectations.
44:46Notice there's no 27 picks involved in these. There's no 28 picks involved in these very specific that we're focusing on the 20, 20 sixes.
44:55Let's get set up for the next fun little exercise.
44:58We have, we did this last episode. We're going to make a real life trades for players.
45:04I'm obviously going to do Jalen Waddle. He is somebody that I am looking to buy.
45:10And I think Ryan, you roster him in a league that we are both in.
45:15And I want to know if you would accept it's not on here, but I want to know live on air.
45:22I've got a 28 first with your name on it.
45:25And I want to know 28 one for your Jalen Waddle on this team that I think is going to contend in the future.
45:34Yeah. I'll give a little bit of background on my team in this league.
45:38What people really need to know. This is one of the listener leagues that did, did it startup one, two years ago.
45:46My team is horrid and this is like the worst startup.
45:50I think I've maybe ever drafted. I it's very, very rough.
45:53I've like trick traded away all my running backs, all my productive assets on this team.
45:59It's like CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy, if I remember correctly at quarterback and just not like, not a whole lot going on, on this team.
46:07I have a ton of firsts coming up in future years, but it's just kind of one of those clunker types of
46:15teams where honestly, maybe the one scenario where I'm like, yeah, I w I would just like sell Jalen Waddle straight up for a future one.
46:24I don't typically want to do that with wide receivers that I think could like outperform market redraft ADP, like go up in value in a given year.
46:33But to me, like this, this team's timeline is like 20, 28 at best.
46:38So I would, I think I will just take the 28 one.
46:42Of course you have it up here on screen that I should also be getting a 27 fourth.
46:48So I will glad, I will glad you hold you to that.
46:52Glad we hold you to that one. To keep it up with the trade builder that we have here.
46:59Got to honor that. But yeah, this is just a league where I want draft capital effectively.
47:05And anything I just said about Waddle's near term outlook kind of goes out the window.
47:10That's right. We got one done live. We got one done live.
47:14I'm sending it right now. We're accepting it live on air.
47:18Look at that. I love it. I love, I love it.
47:22That's one more Waddle share for me, Jacob. We have you set up here.
47:27You're going to be deciding whether or not you are trading for or trading a player away.
47:32What do you have? Yeah. So I looked through your tool today.
47:37I looked at the ADP and I saw one specific name that had about a half round higher ADP than AJ Brown that made my blood boil.
47:46And that was podcast disfavorite Roman Dunze. So I went to look and I looked and saw, okay, where do I have Roman Dunze in my portfolio?
47:55And particularly where do I have one of contending team where AJ Brown could really be a big boost to my hopes.
48:03And I found one, I found one. It's called the Mickey mouse league.
48:07I guess it's because I, I'm such a Mickey mouse player that I roster Roman Dunze in this league.
48:13But I went and I looked at my roster.
48:17I found a team with Rome. And then I went and looked at the manager's team that has AJ Brown.
48:23And what I would probably do in this circumstance is I would send two offers.
48:29I would send a straight up Roman Dunze for AJ Brown offer.
48:33And then I would find a little bit more of a sophisticated offer, which is the manager with AJ Brown in this league.
48:40Uh, there's I would say struggling from a points perspective at the quarterback position.
48:45There, there are two quarterbacks are Bryce young and CJ Stroud and my team.
48:50I have a bit of a surplus at the quarterback position.
48:54Um, I have Baker and Kyler is like a QB two platoon.
48:58I don't need both of them. So I went ahead and I, uh, offered Roman Dunze and my 27 second and Kyler
49:05Murray for AJ Brown and brief hall. Ooh, I, I like that.
49:10Give me that. Give me that one more time.
49:13Roma Dunze, Roman Dunze, uh, and Roman Dunze for AJ Brown.
49:16And then I added on, uh, Kyler and a second on my side and breeze hall from the other side, 26 or 27, 20, 27.
49:25Oh, Cam, you, you got to accept this one, right?
49:28I mean, come on. It grades out as a fair trade.
49:32It is. I didn't even need a calculator to find a fair trade.
49:37It grades out as a guru approved fair trade on Jacob's side.
49:41We're going to get you the result of that trade on next week's episode.
49:45I'm excited to see how that one goes. Ryan, let's get you set up.
49:50Yeah. So I want to try to do the most disgusting Matthew golden offload trade ever.
49:56I don't know that I'll be successful based on the trades we just reviewed.
50:00Um, but yeah, this fourth and fuck it team is pretty strong.
50:05Uh, I just kind of want to upgrade like another starting lineup piece basically, uh, for my contending window.
50:11Uh, this team has Jalen Waddle, so I can get a Jalen Waddle share back potentially.
50:17Um, so you can go ahead and just pull up, uh, Jalen Waddle and Matthew golden, uh, from this team in the calculator.
50:24I'm basically just going to offer whatever draft capital, uh, it says to even that out.
50:30Um, I'm guessing it will be more than a second or like a two and a three or something like that.
50:37I'm just kind of curious what it's going to spit out here, but that that's basically the trade I have in mind.
50:45Uh, so we have Matthew golden. And put a 27, two in there at least.
50:50Yeah. Put it, put it to win. I want to see where we're at.
50:54Ooh, it's close. Out of three on top to be nice.
50:58Yeah. The classic stack it up. Uh, okay. So we're sending away Matthew golden, a 27, two and a 27, three for
51:06Jalen Waddle, which means I so, overpaid. If this gets accepted, I might actually be pissed, but we're going to give you
51:13guys the results of this trade here next week.
51:16We're going to continue to do live trades here, kind of backing up what we are talking about, because there's no better
51:24way to give you guys real hard hitting analysis.
51:27Then well, putting our money where our mouths are, that's going to do it for this episode.
51:33Again, leave a comment. Let us know who should have made the list.
51:37Do you guys think these guys or buys or sells?
51:41What do you think the market has right or has wrong really helps us go a long way.
51:47And I have to announce that it's been asked about, we've talked about it.
51:52The live streams will be back. You'll get two dynasty points episodes, one only on YouTube.
51:57The other will be this recorded episode that goes out on podcast, but the lives are back in July.
52:03I'm excited. Five for five and everything else you loved about the live streams are back here on the dynasty.
52:10YouTube channel at fantasy point fantasy points for Ryan Heath, for Jacob Sanderson.
52:15I'm Thomas Tipple. Remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose it.
52:20Your best days are always spent tilting. We'll see you guys next time.
