Sell A.J. Brown? Buy Deebo Samuel | 2026 Dynasty Market Report

A.J. Brown suffered a high ankle sprain in the Wednesday game. The source projects a four-week minimum absence followed by a four-week production ramp-up, potentially making this an eight-to-nine-week issue. Concerns persist regarding his reliance on physical traits and speed, which may be diminished by the injury, as well as his recent injury history (hamstring, knee) dating back to late 2024.

The source advises getting off of A.J. Brown while possible, noting that recent trade returns like Zay Flowers or a 2028 first-round pick are favorable moves. The source expresses concern over the Patriots' vanilla offensive scheme and Brown's lack of downfield usage, suggesting his market value is inflated compared to his current role.

The source characterizes Baker Mayfield as a 'mid to sometimes upper tier' quarterback who remains a high-turnover risk. He is not considered a target in the fifth round of drafts or worth a high-value trade asset, as the source believes his recent contract is an overpay.

Blake Corum looked explosive in his rotation with Kyren Williams, consistently outperforming him in terms of burst and efficiency during their shared series, despite Williams retaining red-zone work.

The source views Christian McCaffrey as a sell candidate, questioning why managers would hold him through his injury issues only to trade him now. The source suggests that trading for a 'bandaid' like A.J. Brown is not a sound strategy for contending.

Christian McCaffrey remains the focal point of the 49ers' offense, with the source noting that the team's efficiency drops significantly when he is off the field. Despite the team's stated desire to reduce his workload, his role as the 'skeleton key' to the offense makes him difficult to remove in competitive games.

The source suggests moving Christian Watson, who is arguably a wide receiver five, in exchange for D'Andre Swift. The reasoning is that the Packers' offense under LaFleur is unlikely to produce a 'workhorse' wide receiver, and the positional value of a starting running back in a high-powered offense outweighs the current value of a depth wide receiver.

D'Andre Swift signed a three-year, $33M+ contract extension with $27.5M guaranteed, locking him in as a potential bell cow in the Ben Johnson offense for at least two years. Despite being a 'Dynasty Zero' and a frequent trade throw-in, his efficiency metrics—including better missed tackles forced (.17 vs .10) and higher expected fantasy points per game (13.1 vs 8.7) compared to Khalil Herbert when both were healthy—suggest he is undervalued. The source expects his dynasty value to rise, making him a target for managers looking to move wide receiver depth for a top-15 running back.

Davante Adams's usage was concerning, with the source noting he was not charted for a single play inside the 10-yard line. The poor performance was attributed in part to the team's difficult travel and sleep schedule adjustments for the game in Australia.

Deebo Samuel saw significant usage with seven targets and three red-zone looks, showing a 50% slot rate and 6.3% backfield usage. While his 3.0 yards per route run is likely to regress, the source notes this usage mirrors his 2021 breakout season and suggests he could be a viable, cheaper alternative to A.J. Brown for contenders.

The source criticizes Drake Maye's performance, noting he lacks comfort in the pocket and frequently resorts to scrambling at the first hint of pressure. His inability to attack downfield is highlighted as a major concern for the Patriots' offense.

George Kittle is an 'all systems go' buy after a dominant Week 1 performance where he led the team in routes run (47.2% share) despite returning from January Achilles surgery. He remains a high-end asset, and the source notes he is still undervalued in many dynasty tight-end premium leagues.

Jadarian Price impressed in his rookie debut with a 70% success rate and 5.2 yards per carry, showing more decisiveness than Kenneth Walker. Despite a rotational backfield, the source believes Price's talent will force the coaching staff to ride the hot hand, especially with Zach Charbonnet sidelined. He is a strong hold/buy for dynasty managers.

Following Malik Davis's season-ending hip injury, the source suggests Javonte Williams could potentially lead all running backs in snap share for Dallas.

The source explicitly prefers the Jalen Waddle side of a trade involving A.J. Brown, indicating Waddle is a more desirable dynasty asset in the current market.

Khalil Herbert is significantly less efficient than D'Andre Swift in almost every category except man-gap schemes, where he posted 5.29 yards per carry and a 60% success rate. While he had a few big games, the source notes his production was inflated by matchups like the Bengals and he is currently being overhyped by dynasty managers relative to the veteran starter in front of him.

Kyren Williams is viewed as a sell candidate due to his contract situation, as the team could move on from him next year. The source notes a rotation where Williams handles early-series work while Blake Corum looks more explosive, with Williams primarily being used near the 20-yard line.

The source projects Lamar Jackson to become the NFL's first $70 million-per-year player, citing his two-time MVP status. Despite injury concerns, he is viewed as an elite fantasy asset.

Mack Collins saw significant usage in neutral game scripts, leading the team with 29% of targets in those situations. However, the source notes that his usage is often tied to run-heavy formations, limiting his fantasy excitement despite the target volume.

Rhamondre Stevenson had a brutal outing with a negative 32.5 rushing yards over expectation and a 55.6% stuff rate. The source notes he lacks explosiveness, struggles to push the pile, and is more of a 'boom or bust' player than previously assumed, though he remains 'old reliable' for short-yardage consistency.

Rhamondre Stevenson remains the primary early-down back, with the source projecting a 60-40 split in his favor even when TreVeyon Henderson is fully healthy. Despite concerns about his lack of explosive playmaking and limited goal-line efficiency—noting only a 9.1% target share and inconsistent red-zone usage last year—he is expected to maintain his role as a volume-based RB2/flex option.

Ricky Pearsall faces a concerning situation after suffering an injury in Week 1. While the source remains interested in his long-term potential, they advise caution due to the high attrition rate in the San Francisco offense and the uncertainty surrounding his specific injury status.

The source views Terry McLaurin as a 'touchdown machine' and believes his fantasy upside is comparable to A.J. Brown's, provided both Jayden Daniels and McLaurin remain healthy. The source admits to previously underestimating McLaurin's value.

The source believes TreVeyon Henderson will likely remain in a committee role due to durability concerns, despite his superior explosiveness compared to Rhamondre Stevenson. His dynasty value may have been artificially boosted by not playing in Week 1.

The source argues TreVeyon Henderson is the necessary 'dreaded weapon' for a Patriots offense desperate for explosiveness. With superior yards per carry, EPA, and explosive run rates compared to the rest of the backfield, the source expects his route participation to climb from 36% to over 50% as the team seeks to replace A.J. Brown's production.

The source is high on Zay Flowers, projecting a potential 'Terry McLaurin-type blow up' in the touchdown department. Flowers is viewed as a superior asset to A.J. Brown in dynasty formats due to his attachment to an elite quarterback in Lamar Jackson.