PodcastFrom Dynasty Points
Is CMC Washed Or Should We Buy? 5 Players With Pure Potential /w Paul Patterson
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
48 min
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Jul 22, 2026
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Wed, July 22, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Günstig ohne App. Bei Aldi gibt es einen Preis für alle.
0:03Diese Woche Bio-Joghurt mit Crispy Müsli, 150 Gramm für nur 89 Cent.
0:07Oder Igloram Spinat, 750 Gramm für nur 1,69 Euro.
0:10Entdecke weitere Angebote in deinem Aldi Nord. Aldi. Gutes für alle.
0:13Is Christian McCaffrey washed? Should Dynasty Players be on the run?
0:16Or should they be looking to buy? We ask this question and a few more to our guy Paul Patterson who joins
0:23us from Pure Potential with 5 targets that you should be buying right now to set yourself up for success in 2026 and beyond.
0:30It's Dynasty Points and it starts right now. Hello everybody.
0:33Welcome back. Thank you for joining us on our small corner of the Dynasty Fantasy Football landscape.
0:38Today we're joined by someone else in the Dynasty Fantasy Football landscape.
0:42Friend of the show for many years over from Pure Potential.
0:45This is Paul Patterson. We're happy to have you back.
0:48It's been a hot minute but not the first time.
0:51Won't be the last time you're bringing something for our subscribers, your subscribers.
0:55Five players that you deem worthy of buying in Dynasty.
0:58I'm excited. I'm sure these guys are all excited as well.
1:01Thanks for joining us. Yeah, absolutely. Appreciate you having me.
1:04Always happy to jump on with you guys and talk some player takes, buys today.
1:09We've got five names, different positions, different value positions, different fits on your Dynasty roster.
1:13But I think they all are good targets right now.
1:16I love that. Joining us today as always is Ryan Heath, Jacob Sanderson.
1:20Don't worry. If you missed the live, you can go back and watch that as this releases on the Wednesday.
1:26We're live on Tuesdays. When you're done here, head over there if you missed it already.
1:31I can already tell you from the future that 5 for 5 is going to go my way.
1:37I can tell you that much. Let's dive right in.
1:40You're like the USGA. Every year it's like, oh, the US Open is only a success if the winner shoots plus 8.
1:46Have you ever just considered that maybe people like to see an occasional birdie?
1:50What if you winning was supplying questions that people could answer?
1:54You know, that's another way to look at winning.
1:57The way I look at winning. Other hosts of a similar program have looked at winning that way.
2:02I don't know. Other hosts have made points worth double to try to screw a different host on this show over.
2:08But my version of winning is listening to Paul Patterson give us players to buy so that we can make ourselves better Dynasty players.
2:15Only you can help yourself become a better trivia player.
2:18Paul, let's go to our first player on this list.
2:22And I led in the open. Some people are saying time is catching up no matter what you do.
2:27But you say players need to buy Christian McCaffrey.
2:30Let's talk about why. Yeah, I mean, the reason why is just the price.
2:34I think you look at the last few years, like 2024, Saquon Barkley finishes as the overall RB1.
2:40He's a second round startup pick the year after.
2:42Granted, a couple years younger than Christian McCaffrey is right now.
2:46He also never hit the peak production that Christian McCaffrey gave us last year and has given us in every single healthy season of his career.
2:53So for me, looking at Christian McCaffrey, he's the 60th overall player on Keep Trade Cut.
2:58I've drafted him in the fifth round of my last two Dynasty startups.
3:02I just think you look at the players that are going around him.
3:06There is some opportunity costs in terms of young guys with upside.
3:10But the opportunity cost, I think, is just well worth it for a guy that as long as he's on the field,
3:16even last year when his rushing efficiency was way down, was easily far and away the best running back in fantasy football.
3:23He had 90 more expected fantasy points than any other running back in the league last year.
3:28And to me, he's like the contender buy of this year.
3:31Because if you think about all the guys that have a legitimate chance to finish number one at their position in scoring,
3:38like every one of these players pretty much is a top 20, 25 startup pick.
3:43Like Bijan, Gibbs, Chase, Puka, JSN, Allen, Lamar in your Superflex leagues, Bowers, McBride.
3:47All of these guys are going in the first couple rounds of startups.
3:51Yeah, you can buy in on like a Mike Evans and Derrick Henry.
3:55I like those guys too. They are not offering you the same type of league winning upside that McCaffrey is.
4:01So I just think to be able to get a player that can be the number one scorer in all of fantasy,
4:07I don't care if he's 30 years old. And at that price, you know, in the 50s, in the 60s of a
4:14startup or at the cost of a, you know, late projected first round pick, I think he's well worth it.
4:20Yeah, you'd mentioned the cost of the late first round pick, which I find especially enticing.
4:25I recently just updated my dynasty rankings. I still have them up at 1.25 base firsts.
4:29That's a price that I will freely acknowledge has a lot of risk baked into it where, you know, any moment in
4:36time you could come up with a zero. But I do think even among, or I should say, I think that among
4:43a objectively risky cohort of players, which is the high producing olds, that McCarthy does, or McCaffrey does seem to be the safest.
4:50You know, you compare him like a safe to like a Saquon Barkley or a Derrick Henry, for instance.
4:55And, you know, obviously Derrick Henry has been owning us.
4:58You know, anyone who's ever said anything about his aging profile for years now.
5:03But, like, it does remain true that if and when Henry stops being a successful explosive rusher, it's kind of over.
5:09Now, that's probably not going to happen until he's 57 years old, apparently.
5:13But he's obviously very reliant on that for his profile.
5:16You know, likewise, at receiver, you really can't fake it.
5:19Like, once you're washed, you don't score fantasy points anymore as a receiver.
5:23And that certainly would apply to, you know, insert your favorite of Devontae Adams or Mike Evans or if any of those guys, if it goes for them.
5:31But with McCaffrey, like, I think I tweeted out last year, he's a mix of 29-year-old Keenan Allen as a receiver and 29-year-old Devonta Freeman as a rusher.
5:40Like, I think he kind of already is washed as a running back or, like, as at least a rusher.
5:46And it doesn't matter because as long as he's still so good in the receiving game, he's just going to compile so many points.
5:53And even if he was to take a step back in the receiving game, it feels like that would be something where
5:59they'd have to address it almost the year after it happens.
6:03Because I think that his role is just so ingrained.
6:06So, I think that the floor in the short term, barring injury, is, like, higher from a scoring perspective than maybe we think.
6:13Like, I think absolute worst case scenario, he'd still be a mid to low RB1.
6:17I think he's a pretty fun buy at his current price in Dynasty where you're basically paying a year-to-year tag.
6:23Yeah, for example, I'm in a half PPR league where I have one of the highest value teams in the league.
6:30I have Josh Allen, I have Drake May, I have Jamar Chase.
6:33And there was a team that took over an orphan.
6:36They were looking to blow it up. And they put McCaffrey on the block.
6:40And it was like, this felt like the most impactful player I could go and acquire to juice my odds in this current season.
6:48So, I traded my current year, 2027 first and second, which I wouldn't do, like, in any situation.
6:53But with such a high-value team trying to go and get a bye week, it felt like the right type of kind of push the chips and move.
7:02Like, I have the value insulation. I have pieces at other positions.
7:05This is the best way I can access a really high ceiling at running back.
7:10And I think Dynasty managers can be way too well or nothing with, like, do I take the risk or do I play it safe?
7:17I think it's way more about picking your spots.
7:20And this feels like a spot where, yeah, build a young team around him.
7:24But go get Christian McCaffrey to kind of be the production engine for you in 2026.
7:29He's not just a regular old guy buy either.
7:32We're talking about well over 20-some million, over 30 million this year in dead cap if he got released.
7:37He's not going anywhere. So, you for sure got yourself more than a redraft player.
7:42And like these guys have said, more than a redraft plus player as well.
7:46Just a solid points option. Let's move over to number two.
7:49You have Malik Neighbors on your list. And this might seem obvious, but his price just keeps falling.
7:55With every wacky, wild, and weird New York Giants PR nightmare, every softball charity event that a video gets released from Neighbors,
8:01people seem to get further and further away from just how good he was when he's on the field.
8:07Let's talk Neighbors. Yeah, I'm not going to get any points for originality here.
8:11I'm just pointing out something that I just think is ridiculous, that he's fallen to be the 18th overall player on Keep Trade Cut.
8:19I believe he's the 18th overall in Startup ADP over the last month.
8:23This is just so silly to me. This is a 22-year-old player.
8:26He had one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons we've ever seen.
8:30As a rookie in 2024, he led the entire NFL in target share.
8:34He was second in targets per outrun. He had the seventh highest points per game mark, which was higher than Justin Jefferson's
8:41rookie year, higher than Jamar Chase's rookie year. Pretty sure he played games with Tommy DeVito as a rookie, or Tyrod, or
8:47Drew Locke, or one of those guys. And it didn't matter.
8:51Had 2.3 yards per outrun with an absolute terrible carousel of quarterbacks.
8:54This is a guy that we should have really no doubts that he is in the same talent class as, if you
9:01don't want to go as far as Jefferson or Chase, which I kind of would, CeeDee Lamb, Aminor St.
9:06Brown. I mean, he's that type of player. He's, again, he hasn't even turned 23 yet.
9:11And he's losing substantial value in Dynasty because he might start on the pup in his third season.
9:17I just, he was being drafted in redraft leagues right next to all of these guys that are four years older than him last year.
9:24And I just don't really understand what's changed. Like, if anything's changed, it's that the Giants have hit on a quarterback that
9:31at least seems competent and could have a pretty high ceiling as a player in the NFL.
9:36So this just feels like if there's any opportunity to get in on a guy like Malik Nabors, who could have been
9:43easily a top three startup pick had he stayed healthy last year, this is the time when you want to be sending
9:49out those offers, going and seeing if someone's even willing to budge off of him, whether there's a discount or not.
9:56Just the idea that he could be up for trade, I think is a huge opportunity.
10:00And I think in a lot of leagues, you could flip a Jefferson, Lamb, or Aminor for him straight up.
10:06And you're just getting four years younger. And a guy that's almost certainly going to be valued ahead of him, ahead of those players next offseason.
10:14Not really much pushback. Because I mean, I think he would have been the unanimous number one overall guy in startup picks,
10:21startup drafts, had he stayed healthy last year and had the season I would expect him to have had.
10:27My only pushback is, I'm just curious your thoughts on where his startup ADP you think will be next offseason, if he's never right this year.
10:34So like, let's say he misses four weeks, then he comes back.
10:38But he is like, I don't know, the wide receiver 24 for the rest of the season.
10:43There's a couple flashes where he looks good. But there's also a lot of, maybe he misses another couple weeks in between with some other compensation injury.
10:51And you just never get more than like a couple weeks of thinking you have this guy back.
10:57How worried do you, I mean, it's a possible question, but how worried do you think the market would get on like,
11:03oh no, it's Odell 2.0, it's just never coming back?
11:06Yeah, so like you said, it's a hard scenario to necessarily give a lot of confidence in.
11:11But my take is, I think basically no matter what happens this year, barring like a subsequent injury, I think he will
11:18be no less valuable than he is right now, like next offseason.
11:22Like no matter what, I don't think anything could really happen this year unless he like tears his Achilles or something, that
11:28he would not be valued at this. Because he's going to be younger going into next year than JSN was coming into, or is coming into this year.
11:37Like, he's still so young. I think it's so easy for people to be like, okay, he's a year removed from the injury.
11:44I mean, let's look at Jonathan Brooks right now, right?
11:47Like, what Jonathan Brooks' value is doing, he's like going in the sixth or seventh round and redraft.
11:52This guy has like 10 career carries. And this is someone who's never shown it in the NFL, didn't have nearly the track record in college.
12:00So, I mean, I think it's the right question to ask.
12:03And I just think, I think it's really hard for him to not hold this type of value, assuming that we're looking
12:10at him going into 2027 with a clean bill of health.
12:13So you mentioned the one of Amon Ra for neighbors.
12:16Is that a, sorry, I'll ask this, but I apologize for cutting off, Ryan.
12:20Like, is that a trade that you'd be willing to make if you have a contender and you have Amon Ra and
12:27you're trading him for neighbors who, I mean, I agree, I have neighbors ahead of Amon Ra in my rankings.
12:33Yeah. But would you be willing to do that on an actual contending team, knowing it's possible you're trading a probable mid
12:40to high range wide receiver one for a bit of a question mark this season?
12:44So I'd say Amon Ra is the, is the one guy of that group.
12:48I think Lamb or Jefferson, I would do straight up in pretty much any situation.
12:53Amon Ra, I have like just slightly higher 2026 confidence in for, you know, various reasons.
12:58And that would be one where I would be willing to say, like in certain situations, like you already have a really
13:04valuable roster or, or whatever, like this is your, your last year where you're already kind of trending in a certain way
13:11where you're probably going to be set and going into a rebuild the following year.
13:15I could see holding off, but I'd say in more than half of situations, I would take that trade.
13:21And certainly in any, in any rebuilding context, I mean, that would, that would be a no brainer.
13:27But honestly, that's not even my favorite way to go out and try to get Malik neighbors.
13:32I think it would be looking at the next tier of assets down, looking at guys like Carnell Tate, George Pickens, even
13:38Teddero McMillan, who I do really like the idea that you could just add something somewhat negligible to him, which is kind
13:45of what the rankings, the consensus would indicate you could do and go and get a player that's already put that type
13:52of ceiling on film, I think would be an even better way.
13:55Keep your other elite players, right? And then go get, go get another one.
13:59The only thing I wanted to kind of layer on top of what you guys were both just talking about in terms
14:06of, okay, where, where will the market go with him?
14:09Where, how low could his ADP go? How high could it go as we approach his eventual 100% return?
14:15I, there's a weird thing in the fantasy football market now that happens where, because, especially in Dynasty throughout the entire off
14:21season, we're so plugged in and we're so constantly inundated with news.
14:25I, there's a effect to this that anytime we get a positive or a negative headline, even if it's something that we
14:32already should have known or already should have priced in a player's price moves, right?
14:36I distinctly remember when neighbors originally had his injury and it was pretty clear to everyone.
14:41Yeah. He may not be himself even for a good part of 2026 at that time.
14:46The debates we were having were, oh, should you trade him for Aminra or should you trade him for Jackson Smith and Jigba?
14:53And it's just slid more and more and more as we have had an entire off season to discuss, okay, well, neighbors,
14:59I had is had, maybe as he, he's had this setback in his injury and it could be until week eight or
15:06like with every additional projection that comes out, people's sentiments just reduce.
15:10And yes, we're seeing the opposite happen with Jonathan Brooks right now.
15:13As we get closer and closer to his theoretical return, there's more and more speculation about when could he return?
15:19How good could he be? What role could he have?
15:22I think we will see the opposite of that with neighbors at some point, there will be like the upshoot of positive
15:29news, even if the fantasy points don't really come in 2026.
15:32So yeah, I would be very much on Paul's side here that I think at some point you are getting the positive
15:39news cycle with Malik neighbors, uh, just coming out of the ether whenever it is in the 2027 off season.
15:45And I would be happy, uh, being ahead of market before then, just because I, I feel pretty confident that's coming regardless.
15:51The other part of it too, when you're talking about his value in the next year, like Paul did is we can
15:58guarantee one wide receiver as passing him immediately when the draft shows up, how many others, right?
16:03Cause we've talked about needing an influx of young elite talent and well, neighbors already has it.
16:08So how many wide receivers could really pass him to drop him down far enough to take that significant of a hit?
16:15Yeah. I don't, I don't know if there are any major clear candidates.
16:19I think Drake London could have the type of season this year where I could see him flipping neighbors.
16:25Cause I think he has like a top three, top five season in him pretty easily.
16:29Um, other than him, unless Bryce young kicks it up a notch and somehow we get a true year to break out from Ted around McMillan.
16:37I don't, I don't see anybody else really that could get into that conversation.
16:41Right. It would take a pretty extreme rookie landing spot again, outside of Jacob's future dynasty.
16:46One-on-one Jeremiah Smith to really put a significant gap as like you said, he's already going to be younger than Jason is heading into this year.
16:54So I like the Malik neighbors call. Let's go to number three and you don't have to convince me, Paul, as someone
17:01who's probably watched too many of his games, but Zay flowers is a screaming by he's a market report.
17:06Favorite. I would love to hear what inputs you have to the Zay flowers discourse, which still exists.
17:12It, it still exists somehow. I think Zay flowers is starting to go a little bit more mainstream.
17:17I feel like his redraft cost has gone up over the last few months.
17:21His dynasty value is like creeping up a little bit.
17:24People like Jacob Gibbs are talking about him, um, on his show.
17:28He came onto my channel and talked about him.
17:31I I've been calling Zay flowers a bias since early last year, because I think last year was his true year three
17:37breakout that it kind of flew under the radar for a lot of people.
17:42Like if you asked the average person, you know, you do like a man on the street, like, Hey, what was say flowers stat line last year?
17:50They'd probably say like, Oh, you know, 65, 70 catches.
17:53He had a thousand receiving yards. Maybe like this guy had 86 catches for over 1200 yards last year on a team
17:59that had the lowest pass attempts per game. Second lowest pass attempts per game since at least 2018, which is when I stopped looking back.
18:07Um, like this guy had an insane season in terms of consolidation in terms of per route efficiency last year.
18:13Um, even in 2024, four, his second season, he had 26% targets per outrun 2.35 yards per outrun.
18:18He follows that up last year in a season where Lamar Jackson plays stretches of games injured, looking completely ineffective.
18:24He plays with Tyler Huntley. He plays with Cooper rush.
18:27He still puts up 2.61 yards per outrun, um, nearly a 28% target share.
18:32I mean, these are the peripheral metrics that we look at guys like Drake, London, AJ Brown putting up in the third
18:38highest percentage of his teams receiving yards in the NFL last year.
18:42So this is a player that just, the talent is just so evident.
18:46And then you can go and look at more of like a film charting, like a reception perception as your proxy for
18:52film over the 90th percentile success rate versus zone coverage, um, above the 70th percentile and man impressed coverage.
18:58I mean, just extremely competent across the board. He runs all the routes.
19:02He's good after the catch. He does everything you'd want to see.
19:06He's just never, he hasn't been able to pair that with an offense that was really, really efficient or really, um, had
19:12the volume in the passing game or the consistent efficiency in the passing game.
19:16And he hasn't scored the touchdowns, but even so if you include his week 18 game last year, which I think you
19:23should, it was a totally meaningful game for the Ravens.
19:26Like it wasn't like a garbage time game for either side.
19:29He had 14 and a half points per game.
19:32That was still, uh, I believe borderline top 12 among wide receivers last year.
19:36So you look at him now as in, you know, valued as like the wide receiver, 22, 23, 24.
19:42Uh, it just seems like a clear discount off of what he's shown us.
19:46The wide receiver competition for Baltimore is totally uninspiring.
19:49They let likely go. They brought in Jacoby lane.
19:52Who's like a deep threat. His profile wasn't particularly interested in.
19:55And then Elijah Surratt, who, you know, productive college player, not the most athletic goes on day three.
20:00I don't find either of those guys to be particularly threatening to Zay flowers role in the offense.
20:06They bring in Declan Doyle, the offensive coordinator who worked under Ben Johnson.
20:10Um, it's just a lot of things here that I really like.
20:13He still has Lamar Jackson as his quarterback. So just looking across it at his peripherals, his age, the part of his
20:20career that he's entering this year, four year five, where these guys can typically hit their peak production.
20:25I think everything kind of aligns for Zay flowers to break out in a big way.
20:30Yeah. I mean, I massively agree. I I've, I've been pretty pro Zay at almost every stage of his career.
20:36Uh, certainly now he looks like a player who's coming into his own at his first season up over 2.5 yards per outrun last year.
20:44Um, you mentioned the week 18 stuff. That's some of the silliest stuff I've seen.
20:48I don't understand that at all. Um, I mean, I've, I've become more and more in the habit of even not that
20:55it applies to Zay flowers, but, um, I've become more and more in the habit of including post-season games in kind of
21:02like the, any of the research that I'm doing.
21:04Cause it's, it's only higher stakes games, like us arbitrarily deciding which games count for fantasy and which don't seem odd.
21:11I would totally get the discounting it more if it was like a game of backups played against backups, but that was
21:17effectively a pre playoff playoff game, not to trigger Tom who I'm sure remembers it very closely, but like both of those
21:24teams were giving it 110% obviously to win that game.
21:27Um, yeah, I think really, you know, you look at Zay flowers and I think it's really the only thing that he's missing is routes.
21:34He ran up near 600 routes in his rookie season, become a better player since that time.
21:39He hasn't cracked 500 routes since, um, the Ravens are really weird.
21:43They have a lot of seasons where they have under 500 drop backs and then they intersperse like one of every three
21:50years, they have up over 600 drop backs. Um, some of that is like a little bit random.
21:55Um, and sometimes it's related to how the defense performs.
21:58Sometimes it's just game script stuff. It's what is a Lamar's health?
22:02A lot of the time as well. Of course, um, I think a median expectation should be that we see something a
22:08little bit in between how extremely run heavy they were last year and how past heavy they've been on occasion.
22:14So you get those routes up, you get a new OC that targets him in the end zone.
22:20Everything else that is in the peripheral profile screams wide receiver one.
22:23Um, so I'm, I'm super in on Zay. I, he was the guy that I, I just recently did my re-rank on and moved him up.
22:31Um, you know, not for any news or anything that happened, but just from like, you know, stepping back, you're not in
22:38the middle of it, start evaluating the profile from a, uh, a longer view.
22:42And I think he's, he's a guy that you definitely want to be targeting.
22:46Yeah. I've had to progressively move him up. He's inside my top four rounds now for startups.
22:51Um, my wide receiver 20. And so that, that puts him pretty, pretty well ahead of where the consensus has him again.
22:58I, you know, you look at someone like a lad McConkie.
23:01I mean, in a lot of ways we're hoping lad McConkie can put on, on paper, what Zay flowers has already put on paper the last two years.
23:10Like it's not even remotely close with the peripherals are.
23:13Now you look at that passing game, Mike McDaniel, Justin Herbert.
23:16I think you can see what this, you know, the Ravens are not going to throw for 5,000 yards.
23:22The chargers could do that. So I kind of understand that part of it, but the idea that there would be any
23:28kind of meaningful gap between these players when their seasonal cost is basically identical, their ages are not that different.
23:35They're one year apart. Uh, and again, the, what Zay has done efficiency wise, one more stat I throw out there, which
23:41is I'm pulling this completely from Jacob Gibbs. Cause he said this on my, uh, on my show on my channel.
23:47And I just love this. So he was, he was looking at some smaller wide receivers that you could compare favorably to
23:54Zay flowers, both in terms of their stature and also their first few years in the league.
23:59And one of those names was Antonio Brown, which obviously you throw those out.
24:03You don't want to throw that name out willy nilly, but similar size profiles, um, similar types of like early career production efficiency.
24:10The other one was Tyler Lockett. And he noted that Zay flowers over his first three seasons has a 17% red zone
24:17target share over the first three seasons. Antonio Brown had a 12% red zone target share.
24:22Tyler Lockett was at 8%, but both of those guys saw huge spikes in their red zone target shares from years four to six.
24:29Antonio Brown went to 24% and then 36%. Over the next couple of years, Tyler Lockett spiked up to, uh, 28% in his fifth year.
24:37And he had 28 touchdowns from years four to six.
24:40So you look at flowers, like the main thing you could knock him for is like, Hey, this guy doesn't score touchdowns.
24:46He's too small. He's not going to get the targets down there.
24:50I mean, first of all, right now, like all they have is extremely washed Mark Andrews to throw to in that area of the field.
24:57So I think just by virtue of personnel, like we could definitely see some more stuff schemed up, but, uh, yeah, I
25:04think you could also just see a player that continues to improve as a better feel for man coverage, more of the
25:11subtlety, get it, you know, getting in sync with Lamar.
25:14You don't have to be a big body to score touchdowns.
25:17You can do it with finesse, right? You can do it with, with skill.
25:21So I think that's another thing is let's not get too locked in to what the, the touchdown production has been to this point.
25:28I just want to throw, I just want to throw in at, since I've become known as like the Latin McConkie guy,
25:35I have Zay flowers, one spot ahead of Vlad McConkie and in my dynasty rankings as well, just to add more support to what these guys are saying.
25:43I have them a lot more than one. I will say there was a time this off season, he could be your
25:50third, fourth drafted wide receiver, depending on how you built that does seem to be the way of the past.
25:56It looks like you, you kind of have to reach around ahead before somebody gets and snipes them.
26:01The biggest improvements they flowers could make is something I've talked about a lot is turning up field.
26:07I mean, how many times would we watch him catch the ball and he'd run backwards and then run sideways and go nowhere.
26:14He started turning up field immediately. And we saw a massive difference between contract years, a healthy prove it Lamar Jackson.
26:20I don't think there's any way you go wrong here.
26:23Even if he doesn't end up in Baltimore at the end of the day, which would make me entirely sad, he's going
26:30to get fat paid and he is going to go somewhere that plans to utilize him no matter where he goes.
26:36He's truly an underrated weapon. So I love this call.
26:39Not just because I'm a Ravens fan. Keep that in mind.
26:42Number four, Kyler Murray, who has been like a buy for years across the dynasty market, finally gets to a new place
26:49with one of the best wide receivers. The NFL is seen with quarterback competition.
26:53Well, supposed quarterback competition that is, is to be believed that is a tight race to the end.
26:59Yeah. Now nobody, nobody wants to draft or trade for Kyler Murray.
27:02They're all getting off of Kyler Murray when he's the cheapest Paul, you're going against the grain.
27:07Why? Yeah. I mean, we look at what Kyler Murray has put on paper or well in the box score, um, pretty much every year of his career.
27:16And then you look at what every KOC quarterback other than JJ McCarthy and Max Brose are put on, on the box
27:22score every, uh, every year he's been a coach.
27:25And it just, it just seems like too easy, like too easy where I'm like suspicious.
27:30So like what, what is going on here? Um, to me, this feels like if, if Kevin O'Connell came out tomorrow and
27:37just said, Hey, there's no quarterback competition. Like Kyler Murray is just going to be the starter.
27:42I feel like there would be a meaningful shift in Kyler Murray's dynasty price tag, but that's like already where I am.
27:48Like, I don't, I just personally don't believe that there's a quarterback competition.
27:52And I do think the, the consensus doesn't seem that confident that Kyler Murray is the quarterback.
27:57I just don't know how you can really watch what JJ McCarthy did last year and think that this is any kind
28:04of a competition and maybe that'll come back to bite me, but I'm just looking at every year of Kyler Murray's career, right?
28:11He only scored 16.4 points per game last season, but it was five games.
28:15One of those was a partial game. I think, um, before that 18.4, 18.9, 19, 22, 24 points per game.
28:21He's always been at least like a low end QB one.
28:24He's earlier in his career flashed a higher ceiling than that.
28:28He's had at least 30 rushing yards per game every single year of his career, which is a nice little floor razor
28:34playing this year with the best wide receiver duo.
28:37I think he's ever been with pretty easily best coach he's ever played with.
28:41Um, another nice little wrinkle of the Kevin O'Connell offense always has a high pass rate inside the 10 yard line.
28:48Maybe that changes with more of a mobile quarterback, but I mean, he maintained that even with JJ McCarthy, who couldn't, could
28:54not succeed in that type of, uh, of environment, but he didn't like, Hey, let's go more run heavy to protect the quarterback.
29:01That just seems like a very strong tendency that he's had no matter what quarterback.
29:06So I think that can be a nice little ceiling razor as well.
29:10So you're getting him at QB 22 prices in startups, QB 24 on keep trick cut guy who's basically never finished outside
29:16of the top 12, probably in the best season of his career.
29:20Um, obviously age, not a factor with him, maybe job security, but yeah, at the price that he's going where he's valued
29:26around Daniel Jones, who's coming off an Achilles, he's valued around Matthew Stafford, who could have one year left in his career.
29:33I think he's just one of the best targets to go for us.
29:37Like your QB two option where you don't have to break the bank.
29:41You don't have to pass on premium assets in startups to lock up a very reasonable floor at quarterback.
29:47I really like it. And I resonate with this one, especially, uh, when it comes to just finding value in terms of
29:53later round quarterbacks or yeah, in dynasty, super flex your QB twos, what we've seen time and time again is two things.
30:00One, the guys that run tend to vastly outperform their costs and their ADPs and to the guys that play in these
30:07Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay coaching tree offenses tend to vastly outperform their ADPs.
30:11Kyler checks both of those boxes. Uh, I agree, Paul, in the sense that if there was, yeah, if, if KOC just
30:17came out and said, yeah, Kyler's a starter, there's no competition.
30:21I agree. His ADP would increase. I guess maybe my only light pushback is it, and this has just been experience in my own leagues.
30:28I think most people that have Kyler are already there.
30:31I think it might be a little bit of a difference between, uh, like the overall aggregate, like startup costs or values versus people that already have him.
30:40I think almost just completely are in on, yeah, he's going to be the starter this year and projects for 15 plus games.
30:47Uh, so that it might be more of like a trade versus startup value thing, but yeah, like in spirit, I'm a hundred percent with you.
30:54I think everyone is there. I mean, I'm always hesitant to say things are priced in because things are never priced in.
31:01I, I think the fear about Kyler is not, he's not going to win the camp competition to JJ McCarthy.
31:07I think the fear is he's playing on, on a zero security contract.
31:11And if he fails this year, it might just be over.
31:14So I think people look at him, um, compared to other options and see substantially more risk for 2027 and beyond.
31:21I don't think that anybody thinks that there's any chance that JJ McCarthy is starting in week one.
31:26Like, I mean, you look at like his seasonal ADP is best ball ADP.
31:30Like, you know, these are the people that are most focused on 2026 drafts right now that are drafting every day responsibly to information.
31:37And like, I don't think that anyone's drafting on underdog, for instance, in a way that suggests it's a quarterback competition.
31:44Like he's going at like 110 and JJ is 0% drafted.
31:47Right. Whereas you look at like, you know, the Chador Watson or the Falcons guys that go at the end of the drafts.
31:54Um, now I'm, you know, like I said, nothing is ever priced in.
31:58That's especially the case on underdog. So I, I suspect it's going to be one of those silly things where like, everyone
32:05seems to be drafting as though Kyler has already won the job, but when he officially wins the job is ADP will still move up around.
32:12I think it's, to me, the bigger concern is like the, the longer term stuff.
32:17Like what, because where, where would you have them?
32:20Like we're going to rank quarterbacks on the live show, or I guess I shouldn't say we're going to, we just did
32:26rank quarterbacks on the live show, which you're hearing after this pre-recorded show.
32:30And like, I think he's going to come in kind of in the mid QB two range.
32:35Like I'm curious where you have them in like some veterans that you prefer Kyler over that are maybe like a little
32:42safer, but that you think might score fewer fantasy points.
32:45Are we talking where, where would I rank him for this season or where would I rank him?
32:50Well, how about this? I'll just say, I don't even have to spoil because the episodes already happened.
32:56We have them in dynasty, like on our cumulative rankings.
32:59Like we have them right behind golf, Baker, Cam Ward, ahead of shock, Stroud, Malik Willis, Daniel Jones.
33:04Where, where do you land compared to where we have him?
33:07That's like exactly like, that's like exactly where I have him.
33:11I have him. So I have Baker and then I have Ward.
33:14I do have shock right in front of him.
33:17And I was, as I was typing up notes for this, I was like, I need to, I have check ahead of him personally.
33:24Yeah. I was, I was leaning towards flipping them and I probably will, but like same tier Baker shock ward Kyler.
33:31And then a little further down, I have Darnold Stroud and then a tear break to Jones Stafford.
33:36Yeah. Bryce Willis. So yeah, it's not that the market is like way far off in terms of his positional value.
33:42I just find that he falls into like a nice sweet spot of where you can get him, especially in startups.
33:49Maybe it's not exactly this clean in a managed league trading quarterbacks is never clean in, uh, in established leagues, but where
33:55you can acquire him, um, you know, versus what I think he'll do for you this year.
34:00You you're definitely right. You know, I was, I was framing it wrong as far as the, it's not that the quarterback competition is the issue.
34:08It's the security. And I am curious what you think, like, what do you think are the odds that Kyler Murray does
34:15fail in this system or that he's not a starting quarterback in 2027?
34:19I guess that would be my question because I just really struggle with this setup that he's in to see him not
34:25successfully starting like the whole year as an average quarterback, but it might not happen.
34:30I think his, I'd give him like, I'd give him like, I mean, succeeding is like a hard bar to say.
34:36I guess, I guess what I'll say for succeeding is, is what?
34:40Like did the Vikings wish to bring him back to be their starter?
34:44Yeah. Or just that he doesn't get benched, I guess would be, would probably be a good.
34:49Yeah. I don't know if, I mean, I could see, I feel like they're so done with JJ.
34:54I don't know if he'd even, if he did get benched and even know if they'd play JJ, but, um, they have Wentz kicking around still.
35:02So that's true. Um, I, I feel like he's probably like 70 to 75% to be good enough to, to be the
35:09Vikings or, or at least have the Vikings interested in acquiring his services next year, notably as a no tag clause in his contract.
35:16So they don't just get to have them for next year.
35:19He could sign somewhere else too, even if the Vikings want him back.
35:23Um, I think like I would boost him up considerably if I knew he was going to be on the Vikings for multiple years.
35:30I think that the most likely scenario is he plays well in the Vikings and they keep him and that would be great.
35:37And I think he'd then be a very big value.
35:40I think there's, there's like maybe that's like maybe slightly over 50, maybe then it's like a 20% chance that he does
35:47play well in the Vikings, but then goes elsewhere.
35:50And I'm probably less confident in him in other places.
35:53Uh, and then there's like a, that like 20, 25% chance ish that he like fully belly flops.
35:58But I mostly agree with you that he would have to be quite bad to like face plant in this spot.
36:05Yeah. And I think if you get that scenario where he plays well and then goes somewhere else, I don't know that
36:11the market's going to like immediately panic. Like you could sell, you could probably sell it somewhere else.
36:17Yeah. So that's where I feel like you can go and get him.
36:20I feel like it's relatively low risk. Like when you look at the quarterbacks around him, you know, what is the percent
36:27chance Daniel Jones is just never good again. Right.
36:30Like coming off of an Achilles or like the odds that CJ Stroud ever scores 15 points per game in a season.
36:36Like, I don't know. Um, like Tyler Shuck. I mean, are we more than 75% sure he's going to be the quarterback
36:43the saints want going into next year? You know, probably, you know, probably not.
36:47Um, I am. He could, he could be, and that would be my contention with Jacob.
36:52Yeah. Is it, I am. That's, I am. I'm way more confident Tyler Shuck is the quarterback in 2027 and Kyler.
36:58I like a lot more. That's fair. They're, they're basically the same age though.
37:03Right. So, I mean, it's, they are about the same age.
37:06I think that the saints are more invested in shock than the Vikings are.
37:10And I think shock is better. What? That could be true.
37:13I'm not anti, I'm definitely not anti shock. I have them all very close together.
37:18And I think that environment is amazing too. Like, I don't think shock has to be that great to succeed with Kellen
37:25Moore, Tyson, Alave in his own right. Yeah, for sure.
37:28Yeah. No, this, I do not want to turn this into like, it has to be one or the other.
37:34That I'm scared of is cam ward. Honestly, like cam ward is the one that kind of freaks me out in that
37:40group, but I recognize his upside as the younger guy.
37:43And if we'll never, whatever freaks me out on field.
37:46I think he's long jet. There's like, there's a degree to which the, the NFL media, the non-fantasy side of NFL media
37:53is so, so, so confident in cam ward that I'm, I'm willing to trust them a bit with it on the longevity aspect.
38:00Like, I just think that they view him in a very different light than we do.
38:05And I think that either they're right, um, or they're not, but I think that they, I think that the NFL will
38:11give him a couple more years before they admit that they're not.
38:15Yeah. I'll say this about, I'll say this about Kyler.
38:18It's really going to come down. His security is just going to come down to how well the Vikings do.
38:24If the Vikings are drafting high enough to get one of the quarterbacks in this 2027 draft class, I don't think they
38:31pass up on it for another veteran type quarterback on top of that.
38:34I think we need to see, you talked about the passing in the red zone.
38:39I think that's good for Kyler Murray. If he gets back to 2020 where his scramble rate in the red zone was
38:46so incredibly high, it dipped a little in 2021 where he only rushed for five touchdowns, but that's kind of his thing.
38:52And he needs to get back to it. A lot of reports and rumors about him just not wanting to run as
38:59much as he did when he's young. I got news for you.
39:02That's your, that's your bank roll. That's what's going to get it there for you.
39:07So a lot of discussions about how KOC operates over the middle of the field and can Kyler operate over the middle of the field?
39:14How does he adjust the offense going to be a lot easier if Kyler Murray decides to use his legs the way
39:21that he did in his big seasons in 2020, 2019.
39:24And, and recently, even in 2024, we had 78 attempts.
39:27It was up over 500 rushing yards. That's what he needs to do.
39:31I think he can do it. I think the price is fine.
39:35And like you guys talked about, I think he's a starting NFL quarterback beyond this year, unless he fails in a, in a catastrophic manner.
39:42Uh, so this is a, this is a, an approved player from, the gross QB guy.
39:47I am, I'm locked into quite a bit of Kyler Murray myself.
39:51Last player currently unsigned. You're getting ahead. You're getting ahead of the curve because the moment that news comes across the ticker,
39:57uh, he's going to go up on trade blocks in every league that you could possibly find Stefan digs, not signed lots
40:04of reports back and forth about where he could go.
40:07Obviously the commander is now in play now that the Brandon I you stuff is getting weirder.
40:12Uh, so he's been put in play there, Paul, not only do you have him as a buy, you have to have
40:19a spot in mind, I would imagine. So where do you see the best fit?
40:23And is that solely the reason you're buying? Well, the beautiful thing about buying Stefan digs is that he could sign for
40:30literally any team and he would be a discount compared to how he's being valued right now.
40:35He is being valued as if he just isn't a player in the NFL anymore.
40:39Um, yeah, I think the commanders or maybe the chiefs would be among the best spots.
40:44Um, you know, we could dream on other spots like the Raiders, I think would be a great spot.
40:50They've kind of expressed like they're not interested, but you know, maybe they changed their mind after they watch a couple more jail and nailer practices.
40:58I don't know. But the thing about Stefan digs, right, coming off of a mid season ACL tear off of the Houston Texans, he signs with the Patriots.
41:06So switching teams towards ACL over age 30 still comes back to the Patriots and then runs only 65% of the routes last year.
41:13And still managed to score as the wide receiver 25 in points per game.
41:18He had over 12 points per game. Now that's not going to win you a league, but he had 25% targets per
41:24outrun over 2.5 yards per outrun in this sort of not full-time, you know, maybe a little bit better than part-time most time role.
41:31Uh, he had over a hundred. He had exactly a hundred targets.
41:35He had just over a thousand receiving yards. And I think I've drafted him in just about every single startup I've done this off season.
41:43I've gotten him thrown into trades because he is valued outside the top 250 players on keep trade cut.
41:48He's valued just outside the top 200 in startup ADP.
41:51Again, he's being valued as if he's a complete non-entity when I just don't think that's the right read on the situation.
41:58This is not a guy that looked washed to me at all last year.
42:02Um, he does look like a guy who really enjoys having and spending lots of money.
42:07And so, you know, I, this strikes me as a situation where this is a player who's a long-time veteran doesn't want
42:14to participate in training camp, doesn't want to go to practices.
42:17He wants to go hang out on boats all summer, and then he wants to show up and get his paycheck.
42:23I just, I would be absolutely floored if Stefan Diggs does not play NFL football this year.
42:28And that's the only way that this price makes any sense.
42:32So, you know, a guy that is next to, um, Kate Otten in, in startups, you know, next to Drew Allar next
42:38to Jacoby Lane, Pat Fryermuth, like this, he just has potential to be so much more impactful in any type of team
42:45build, any team situation than those guys that are practically waiver wire fodder.
42:49So he just seems like such a no brainer.
42:52Yeah, I'm going to massively agree with Paul here.
42:54Uh, all of my like tea leaf reading, which, which is ultimately like we're, we're all listening to and reading the blurbs
43:01of the same handful of insiders that maybe know things about these, but yeah, my overwhelming, uh, impression is that teams are out on Brandon.
43:08Iuke, but that some teams are in on Stefan Diggs.
43:11I agree. It's very likely he's going to play NFL football this year.
43:15And what we saw from him last year was pretty impressive, uh, from an efficiency standpoint.
43:20Uh, he was one of the top eight receivers in first downs per outrun last year.
43:25Uh, that is a stat that has been very good at spotting future league winners.
43:30It's more stable than yards per outrun from season to season.
43:33Uh, guys don't have to have as big of like an increase in it to kind of hit like an apex outcome league winning season.
43:40It's just a great pre indicator. So he was amazing in first downs per outrun as Paul said, coming off an ACL
43:47in a part-time role, uh, in his handful of games above a 70% route share, he was averaging 17.6 fantasy points per
43:54game, like wide receiver, one level production. Of course, there's not like a guarantee that, Oh, he'll just come back and be a full-time player this year.
44:02Uh, but that that's at least in the range of outcomes.
44:05And if that's even a five to a 10% chance, uh, yeah, then I, I want digs on all of my teams
44:12at the prices that he's currently going in all formats.
44:15So yeah, this is a great call out. I suspect that this will become a much more popular take a week or
44:21two or three from now when digs does sign.
44:24Uh, but yeah, you guys are getting tomorrow's newspaper here is how I'm looking at it.
44:29Yeah. I'm looking at the screen. Tom's pulled up with recent trades.
44:32Um, I see three different deals here where he was traded for a 20, 27 fourth round pick.
44:38I just like to be on record. I would trade every single 20, 27 fourth round pick I have across my entire dynasty portfolio to have on it.
44:46I would, I would make that trade in every single league.
44:50I just see no, I see absolutely no reason to not do that.
44:54I love being able to say like, you know, the goal in dynasty is still to win.
44:59You know, you have to have players that score points to it.
45:02There's no better way to do that than getting them for near free.
45:06Even if you just want to play value games, if you trade a fourth for him today, I promise you, you will
45:13be able to trade him for at worst, a third round pick, probably more than that at some point within the next two months.
45:20So even if you don't have any intention of starting him, you don't think he's good anymore.
45:25He's going to be worth more than he is right now.
45:28Like just almost guaranteed unless there's some sort of additional scandal that comes out.
45:33And I think that's another part of why his value was low is there was this like legal thing that was hanging over his head.
45:40That's gone. Like it's, it's been waved away. Like it's not, it's not a thing anymore.
45:45So yeah, I just think it's a lot of like market lag and people not really thinking the situation through and just seeing, Oh, he's a free agent.
45:53Like it's the middle of July. I guess this guy's not going to play anymore.
45:58Yeah. I'm all aboard with you on this one.
46:01I think that's some of my favorite buys in dynasty are players like this, who I think do actually still have a
46:07chance at being startable over replacement, but you're paying for basically nothing except for the, the minimum expectation of production, you know,
46:14maybe in the early season and everything else is free.
46:17So all in on that. Um, I, I see those, those multiple straight up for a fourth type trades, and that's just, that's just money in your pocket.
46:25So definitely on digs. Yeah. It's just, we're at a point in the year.
46:30We're so far removed from watching people actually play football that these guys just become names on a spreadsheet.
46:35But when week one rolls around and Stefan digs is out there running 80% of the routes, you're going to be very happy.
46:42You took Paul's advice here and just went and shipped your fourth rounders for digs before he signs.
46:48Even if you are a trade to flip later type of dynasty player, that's five players.
46:52Paul Patterson is kind enough to tip us out on right now in dynasty.
46:57You can be going and making moves for now go and check it out.
47:01Stay in contact with your league. Most importantly, you need to head over to the pure potential YouTube channel, become a member in the pure potential discord.
47:09I hang out in there often. It's a wonderful community.
47:12Paul does incredible work on a consistent basis. It's high class, top tier type content, the type of things that you need
47:19to make yourself a better dynasty player. That link is going to be in the description.
47:23So feel free to hit like hit subscribe, and then immediately head over, click that link, watch some videos, great advice, fun
47:30guests, including a few of our own. Paul, thank you for joining us today.
47:34It's always a pleasure when you stop by here at the Dynasty Points podcast.
47:39We will see you guys on next week's episode.
47:41Again, if you missed it, go check out the live, see how these guys did on five or five.
47:47We got to get Paul in there to see how he does in this insane fantasy football NFL trivia contest.
47:53We'll see you guys next time. Remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose that your best days are always spent tilting.
48:00We'll see you guys next time.
