PodcastFrom Dynasty Points
The Players Tanking Your 2026 Dynasty Startup Draft
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56 min
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Jun 26, 2026
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Fri, June 26, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:24Not every pick in Dynasty Startup Drafts can be a knockout.
0:28It can't be perfect all the time. Of course, we have our least favorite.
0:33That's what we're here to do. Dynasty Points, Ryan Heath, Jakob Sanderson, myself, Thomas Tipple.
0:38We're here to give you our least favorite picks in each of the first six rounds right now in Dynasty Startup Drafts.
0:46Don't go anywhere. You're not going to want to miss it.
0:50Dynasty Points starts right now. Hello, everybody. Welcome back to Dynasty Points.
0:54Talking about our least favorite picks in Startups. Last episode, we talked about some of our favorite picks.
1:00A few reasons why. Today, no different. It's not just going to be the player.
1:06It's beyond that. It can be roster construction. It can be the environment, the short or long-term outlook.
1:12There are tons of reasons to not like picks.
1:15I just want to say that does not mean we think these players, quote, suck.
1:20That's a completely different conversation, and I already know you're pre-typing things about your favorite player.
1:26Don't worry. There'll be plenty of time for that throughout the offseason.
1:30You can, though, leave a comment and let us know who you think should have been on this list and or why
1:38we are most definitely in every way wrong about the players that we have all decided to pick today.
1:45No better way than to kick things off than to send this over to Jakob Sanderson and your first pick for the
1:53worst player at ADP in round one, which is really hard to find sometimes.
1:58Yeah, I mean, it's impossible to find a bad player in round one of Startups, so certainly no matter who I would
2:05pick here, I'm not going to be speaking ill about the player in a vacuum.
2:11But as I mentioned on the Best Picks episode, you know, I basically have the top eight ranked more or less the
2:19same as where it goes in Dynasty Startups, so I'm probably going to be looking more at that back four.
2:26And the one guy who I can very easily point to and say, hey, I can get this a little bit later is Aminra St.
2:34Brown, because to me, him, Lamb, and Jefferson are almost identical profiles.
2:39They go back to back to back in redraft scenarios.
2:42Aminra St. Brown is very slightly younger, but to me, not to a majorly meaningful degree.
2:48And while he had the best season last year, you know, the market is essentially baking in with their thoughts on ADP
2:56that, you know, these three, they project about the same going forward.
3:00And we've seen, of course, in previous seasons that Lamb has had the better season or Jefferson has had the better season.
3:08So I view these three as largely the same.
3:11I'm a bit confused why I'm paying almost a full round higher price tag for Aminra St.
3:17Brown to the extent that he's getting up ahead of guys like Gente and Love and Neighbors and Burrow and Caleb that Lamb and Jefferson are behind.
3:27So I just look at him as the one who doesn't really fit.
3:31Obviously, I'm not worried about Aminra St. Brown by any stretch of the imagination.
3:36If you have him on your team, you have a locked in mid-wide receiver one at worst.
3:42You have one of the highest floors in all of fantasy football.
3:46So I'm not saying you have to panic sell him by any stretch of the imagination, but I view him as being
3:54just a little bit overpriced after, honestly, a long time of probably being a little bit underpriced.
4:00I think Aminra St. Brown's price currently just reflects the state of wide receiver and dynasty.
4:06I don't think it's really an indication of his talent or we know the Lions offense is great.
4:12I like you said, I don't think there should be this big of a discrepancy.
4:18I think you're just paying for the state of wide receiver.
4:21It wasn't that long ago, CeeDee Lamb, Jefferson Neighbors this last year were all around one pick.
4:27So there's definitely just been some shuffling and Aminra was the biggest benefactor of that.
4:33I think next year we could definitely see with a bounce back from Lamb, Neighbors and Jefferson that it flips completely again.
4:41I think you're 100% right here. Ryan? Yeah, St.
4:44Brown was also my pick for the worst round one startup pick for largely similar reasons to what Jacob said.
4:51I just think the I agree that like his value, his overall profile is really similar to all these other receivers that you can get in round two.
5:01I even agree that last year he was very underrated and underpriced.
5:05But yeah, now like when the opportunity cost is a Caleb Williams or a Lamar Jackson where there's with Williams, there's the
5:13theoretically much longer time horizon in terms of how long he has to be an elite scoring dynasty asset.
5:20With Lamar Jackson, I think there's like a much higher 2026-2027 ceiling to what he can do.
5:26He can go and be the overall QB1. He can average over 24 fantasy points per game.
5:32That's like in the realm of possibility for Lamar where it is not as likely for an Aminra.
5:38And yeah, even an Ashton Gentry, I would prefer just because I think that's a much scarcer type of profile where you're
5:46getting an every down, three down back on what I think at least is an ascending offense.
5:52Like there's just lots of guys I prefer to Aminra.
5:55Yeah, as I've said, it is very odd. Like how I understand it's just chasing last year's points is more so what this ADP is doing.
6:05But yeah, it's just kind of funny how some guys will ping pong between like perpetually over and undervalued.
6:11And we see that with Aminra. I think we kind of see that a little bit with McBride this year too, where
6:19he was just perpetually undervalued last year. Now in dynasty, he's just like moved way up where he weirdly hasn't in redraft.
6:27Yeah, it's just very interesting, like kind of different audiences or different drafters, I guess, that are moving these guys every which way in different formats.
6:36Yeah, speaking of Trey McBride, he's going to be my least favorite pick here.
6:41I think that when you look at the first round, I want to find a player who's not as situationally dependent as maybe the others.
6:50And again, it's really hard to find a player in round one.
6:54But I think Trey McBride fits that bill for me pretty perfectly.
6:58He's obviously a phenomenal player. There's no doubting that he's a really good player.
7:03He's one of my favorite players. But there is a player where trailing after halftime led the league in garbage time points.
7:11And yes, garbage time points are still points. And is there a big chance that this team isn't exactly down 20 after
7:19the first five minutes like they were last year?
7:22Maybe there's one big difference, though, is yes, Jacoby Brissett is like a serviceable NFL veteran.
7:28He's also just one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but he can power an NFL offense down the field in garbage time and in prevent defense.
7:38I'm concerned about the future in Arizona and Carson Beck playing football this year.
7:43And you're paying a premium for a championship window type build with a tight end being selected like that in the first
7:50round where Brock Bowers doesn't really have this problem.
7:54In my opinion, Loveland has the McBride upside, you know, rounds later.
7:58And I even think there's other values like Laporta who can provide you really high upside type play as well.
8:05That doesn't cost you the 112 over Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
8:09And then there's the roster construction portion of this, which is the real driving factor for me.
8:15I don't really take tight ends in round one, two, even round three at this point.
8:21And I feel like if you do, you should be an experienced drafter taking a position like tight end where you get one.
8:29That's all you need for it. You can two tap tight end at a tight end premium if you want to.
8:36But if you look at teams that carry those builds, they're awfully or they're often an unbalanced mishmash of wide receivers trying to create points in the aggregate.
8:46You lose out on really true elite quarterback play at the top end.
8:51And even the running backs like Gentie or a Hampton, let's say even, it really pushes the envelope in roster construction.
8:58So it's really all tight ends for me. But Ryan, you laid out such a nice case of Brock Bowers.
9:06It was really hard for me to argue against it.
9:09But for roster construction reasons, mostly I'll take Trey McBride here as my worst pick at value for the 112.
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10:06Let's take a look at the second round here.
10:09Jakob, again, pretty hard to knock round two. We found a way to do it.
10:15I think I'm actually taking a look. All three of us have the same player.
10:20There is a player that is so glaring in round two that all three of us identified at separate times.
10:27So I'll let you lead off here. Yeah, we're going to tag team this one.
10:32So I'll go pretty brief on my view. It's Devon Achan who I've talked about this on multiple shows this year.
10:40One of my favorite players in the NFL. One of my favorite prospects in the NFL relative to consensus when he came out.
10:48I love watching him play. I would love if his ADP fell so that I could be in on him again this year.
10:56But I just think that the environment change is just going to be so inhospitable to his skill set.
11:03I have zero doubt whatsoever about his talent. We are talking about a guy who over the last two seasons, his pathway
11:11to being an elite RB1 has largely come through absolutely elite pass game usage.
11:16The only guy really in his tier in terms of the type of receiving usage he's gotten in the last two seasons is Christian McCaffrey.
11:24He's in a different complete stratosphere than even guys like B.
11:28Sean Gibson and Jameer Gibbs in terms of not just the sheer amount of targets, but where he's getting them down the field at times.
11:37So going into this new offense, Bobby Slowick I think of as being one of the least creative offensive play callers in the league.
11:46Coming from Mike McDaniel is one of the most.
11:49And most importantly, it's just that Malik Willis has never had an opportunity to run a high volume offense.
11:56I don't think that he is likely to be at his best running a high passing volume offense.
12:02I think this is a team that's going to be trying to be very run heavy in the first halves of games.
12:10To some extent, that benefits A-chan, but you'd rather have him in the receiving game than in the running game.
12:17And then in the second halves of games, maybe they're forced from behind to throw, and sometimes you're able to rack up those garbage time outcomes.
12:26Just as often is the scenario where, okay, we're down 17 at half.
12:31You think you're getting your garbage time points. We're going to drop back to pass, but the offense just doesn't function.
12:38And so you get two three and outs, and you give up two six-minute drives to the other team, and all of
12:46a sudden you're down 30, and you're pulling the starters.
12:49And we saw that with the Jets last year frequently, where Brees Hall, stuck in this run-first offense on an incompetent team,
12:57would look good and be involved and be utilized.
13:00And you feel like you're on your way to a decent game, and all of a sudden you look up, and the
13:08offense has ran 28 plays, and you're near the end of the third quarter, and you have six fantasy points.
13:15I'm sure A-Chan's going to have weeks where he has a 60-yard house call, and he creates for himself.
13:22But there's going to be too many weeks, in my opinion, of six, eight, ten fantasy points for a running back going
13:30into his fourth year to justify a round two dynasty price tag.
13:34I think my view isn't quite as extreme as Jacobs, but it's similar in the sense that I don't trust Bobby Slovic
13:42to be creative enough to make it work. Like, if you look on paper and you want to project out this Dolphins
13:50offense, it's pretty easy to say, oh, okay, Devon A-Chan could just lead this team in targets.
13:56He could just be, like, their number one receiver, right?
13:59And I think that's, like, what rational coaching or rational play calling might create for this offense.
14:05I just don't have that much faith in Slovic to do that.
14:09If you look at the last three seasons, Devon A-Chan, so every single year of his career, his average over three fantasy
14:17points per game just on snaps that he wasn't lined up in the backfield.
14:22And that's completely unique. No other running back has done that three years in a row.
14:28McCaffrey did it two of the last three years.
14:31Aaron Jones had, like, one year where he got to do that.
14:35So, really, you're seeing, like, the really smart and forward-thinking play callers kind of able to do this with their explosive elite receiving backs.
14:44That hasn't been Bobby Slovic. In his history, over, what, two years, his running backs averaged about one fantasy point per game
14:52when not lined up literally in the backfield. I always think back to that one play that A-Chan made, like, just mossing
14:59a defender in the end zone, like, playing, like, a wide receiver.
15:04I just don't think we see that with Slovic.
15:07Like, I think he could be fine for fantasy.
15:10Like, I don't know that he's, if you draft him in redraft at the one-two turn, I don't know that he's going to sink your season.
15:19I think that these elite receiving backs, even in less than ideal environments, are generally pretty safe.
15:25Like, you're probably going to get 15, 16 fantasy points per game out of all these, out of, like, this profile kind
15:33of no matter how bad the team is just because of the power of that PPR scam.
15:39But I do think that opinions on A-Chan in, like, the dynasty value market are going to fall this year.
15:46And that's why I'm not in on him as a round two pick.
15:51I want, in round two, I can get elite production or guys that I think can rock it up to round one.
15:59A-Chan would be, like, one of my last picks in this round to do that.
16:04So, yeah, ultimately, he's got to be my worst pick in round two.
16:09But my guess is next year, if this is, like, a new look Dolphins offense, A-Chan will be my favorite and best
16:16pick in round three of Dynasty Startups, is how I'm kind of assuming this is going to play out.
16:23Right, and that's how we have to approach this situation, because round two, you've obviously got to be a talented type player
16:31that has produced at an extremely high level. He's just the biggest risk to lose the most value, in my opinion.
16:38Like you guys have laid out, we've had the, they could pull him the offensive court, which, remember, Sloak is not loved
16:46by fantasy managers in his previous stop. I see a lot of ways where it's not really that bad this year, like
16:54you said, but it's what happens if it does go bad.
16:58And that is his value taking a significant enough hit that I think if you want to acquire him, I think you
17:06can skip the startup draft and acquire him in season for less than what it's going to cost you in the second round.
17:14Starts to get dicey here as you move down the rounds, and I think I mentioned this in our favorite picks.
17:21The third round, it can get very dicey. There are a few, I'll call them landmine type players that you can definitely pick.
17:29We've seen picked in previous years. You two agree on the player here.
17:34I'll send it over to Jakob first. Yeah, Ryan and I are in lockstep on this one.
17:40I talked on the last portion of this about my favorite pick in round five, being a year two wide receiver in Luther Burden.
17:48And I'll just go and say I would happily trade my shares of Emekekegbuka straight up into shares of Luther Burden.
17:56And Emekegbuka is going almost two full rounds higher in Dynasty.
18:00Emekegbuka to me was a higher floor but lower ceiling prospect coming out of college.
18:05And he had a rookie year that also to me looks higher floor, lower ceiling in comparison to Luther Burden.
18:12We saw him actually be productive in box score stats, fantasy production, whatever you want to talk about over the course of a full route share, right?
18:22We've seen him do it as a full-time player.
18:25That's to his credit compared to Luther Burden, who was largely performing in a part-time role.
18:31Outside of that, however, Emekegbuka failed to clear over 1.8 yards per route run for the full season, compared to Luther Burden,
18:38who's one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL.
18:42We interestingly saw Emekegbuka early in the year run exceptionally hot, where he was earning volume at a reasonable rate, strong for
18:50a rookie, but converting it at a way higher rate than you'd expect.
18:55Oftentimes, we've typically seen rookies that outperform their target expectation early in their rookie year eventually get more volume over the course of the year.
19:04Burden-Buka, oddly enough, did initially see that volume increase and almost immediately became less efficient, and then got seriously scaled back towards
19:11the end of the year to the point that he was effectively sharing snaps with Jalen McMillan at the end of the year.
19:19To be clear, I have every expectation Emekegbuka is going to be the starting wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year.
19:28I'm not worried about him coming off the field as frequently as he was last year.
19:33I just think it's odd how much people have seemingly memory wiped some of the truly unusable stretches from Ibuka towards the
19:41end of the season and are seemingly pivoting towards what was a very strong start for the beginning of his year to
19:49the point that he's going far closer in range to a Teddero McMillan, for instance, who was strong all the way throughout, was a vastly better prospect.
19:58So I've been leery of Ibuka. If I had to guess, I think he is more likely to have a Jordan Addison
20:06level career than he is to have a Jackson Smith and Jigba level career.
20:11I think we're going to see a solid player for a long time, but one who probably just slides back from this
20:19round three price kind of gradually over time. I think if you want to take a bet on a younger receiver, there's cheaper options later in drafts.
20:29I wouldn't pay the premium for Ibuka. I'd go with someone who I think has a little bit more upside or a
20:36little bit more proven high-end fantasy production. Yeah, right in there with the Alave's and Garrett Wilson, let's say, in the next
20:44round, one of which we talked about in the last episode.
20:48Ryan, you agreed. What did you see? Yeah, my thoughts are honestly similar.
20:53In a redraft context, if we look at the trio of like Ibuka, Ladd McConkie, and Luther Burden, all of these guys
21:00go kind of like early round four-ish on most of these best ball sites, right?
21:06And I think all of them are like reasonable bets.
21:09You can make reasonable sort of breakout arguments and massage in or out like any samples of their career where they have
21:17been really efficient or scored a lot of fantasy points or what have you, right?
21:22Like, I think you can make a case for any of those guys.
21:27They're all like on close to equal footing for me.
21:31So yeah, I was like pretty shocked when I opened up this ADP and saw that Ibuka just goes around and a
21:38half ahead of those guys that, yeah, I don't see why they're especially different bets.
21:44I guess like the exception of Ibuka being around one draft capital wide receiver, the others being like early round two.
21:51But yeah, to me, that's just like such a small difference.
21:55I liked the other two as prospects plenty fine also.
21:59So yeah, I just kind of don't see why you would pay this much for Ibuka.
22:04Like if you like this price, go draft him in redraft right now instead is what I would say, honestly, like you're
22:12capturing way more of the upside there and you're not like missing out on way more stable and like high-end dynasty value
22:20if you were to go draft him in that format.
22:23So just go do that instead is what I'd say.
22:27We also talked about how quickly quarterbacks can change and shift and well, the reports of the Bucks and Baker Mayfield being
22:35so far apart in contract talks, especially with the state of quarterback contracts to begin with and not really knowing where to value someone like Baker.
22:44Yes. When we talk about someone like Drake London, the last episode that hope could be on the horizon, you never want
22:52to see a quarterback that has proven to be able to support high-end fantasy upside.
22:57Walk out the door because in those cases, it is very hard to improve on that situation.
23:03Interesting to see with Ibuka. I'm mostly with you guys.
23:07I disagree only because I see an easier path for him to really gain value.
23:12What if we're wrong? What if, what if it was the injury?
23:16What if, what if that really was it? And we just hashtag don't know ball.
23:21And I'm willing to admit that there is a world there because there's a lot unseen.
23:27I even think somebody like George Pickens is kind of a fake wide receiver 10.
23:32If you look at the splits with and without CD lamb, but I think there's a more fake top 12 wide receiver in this round.
23:41And I'm once again, going to be talking about Nico Collins.
23:45Nico Collins is a player that I have had a hard time drafting for a while.
23:51He will be 28 at the end of the season.
23:54We know how aging wide receivers have a hard time holding value.
23:59If you are not Devante Adams. I mean, we've seen AJ Brown, who we can pretty definitively say has been better than
24:06Nico Collins over his career, lose a bunch of value, even going to the Patriots with a quarterback that isn't named CJ Stroud, who again, CJ, you're lucky.
24:16We're not getting into the seventh round today, but we have seen Nico Collins be really dominant for a stretch over every year.
24:24There's been a short stretch where he goes absolutely insane and either it's injury or that defense just being too damn good to provide opportunities.
24:33Except last year, it felt different. Noel and one of my favorite picks on the board, Jaden Higgins.
24:40Jaden Higgins looks like a legitimate threat to Nico Collins upside.
24:44And he is a player that I said last year, I want to see it for a full year.
24:50I need to see it to really kind of uphold these prices.
24:55And I don't see that significant of a difference from Nico Collins to Chris Alave to T Higgins.
25:01Both of them can have electric high end upside for a stretch just at double the cost.
25:07That's not for me. I have a hard time with aging wide receivers here.
25:12I'm going to continue to have a problem with Nico Collins here unless something crazy happens and CJ Stroud absolutely turns it
25:20around and that defense isn't as good somehow. I have a hard time seeing it, guys.
25:25Staying healthy, age, environment, just not a recipe for me.
25:29I understand he's going to have the spike weeks, but I just don't think wide receiver 12 is for me.
25:36Yeah, I hear you. Nico's old enough to where you have to like be really in on him in 2026, I think,
25:44to want to draft him where he's going. I don't think I'm like that extreme on one side or the other, but
25:52I can totally understand that if you're concerned about just the Texans fantasy scoring environment this year, that yeah, he looks like
25:59not a super exciting pick here at the 3-4 turn in Dynasty Startups because yeah, you can pretty quickly get into a
26:07situation where he's always a year or two away from being 30.
26:11And what has he done like in the last year or two?
26:16Like, yeah, totally hear you. And you're talking about like Brock Purdy going right after just makes that pick look way worse to me.
26:24And maybe that's the real driving force to this, but way worse to me.
26:29Only 20 points in back-to-back games once last year, Jacksonville and Tennessee.
26:33And like I said, it's 14-22, 11, 16-6, didn't play week 8, 14.5, 24, 8.5, 21.5, 16.
26:39Sounds a lot like Zay Flowers, guys. At a way steeper price.
26:44And for that reason, I'm out. Let's go to round four.
26:48Because I actually had a hard time with this round.
26:51I love the fourth round, but boy do I have an obvious one.
26:56And I want to hear your guys' first because mine is just way too easy.
27:01Let's go to you, Jacob. Yeah, so I mean, I'll upset some people with this one.
27:07I certainly upset people with this take when I tweeted it out during the draft.
27:12But I'll go with Harold Fannin here. He comes in as the tight end five off of the board.
27:19And he's just too close to me to Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren.
27:23I think he should be a little bit more in the range with Kraft and Laporta and maybe even all the way down to Kyle Pitts.
27:33I like Harold Fannin a lot. He was my most recommended to be drafted rookie last year.
27:39I think that the upside of his profile from where he was priced made virtually no sense at all.
27:45I just think that there's a higher chance than this price factors in as a fourth round rookie that we might have already seen his best season.
27:55Largely, my concern with him is twofold. One is a longer term concern.
27:59It's a little bit less short term because they don't have any other tight ends on this roster of note.
28:07But I think you're going to have a consistent pressing risk on the routes for Harold Fannin.
28:13He's just not a sharp enough blocker that I can confidently tell you he's going to be a guy that they're going
28:20to be willing to play in line the way that they did last year for the rest of his career.
28:27Maybe it happens this year because their backup tight end is like Joe Royer.
28:32But I'm not convinced it happens over the long term.
28:36And then I just haven't seen yet, you know, anything close to the level of like twitch and separation ability in their
28:44intermediate downfield areas that you get to see out of a Brock Bowers or a Colson Loveland that makes me 100% confident
28:52that he doesn't need those in line alignments to actually win as a tight end.
28:57That he could just go and play slot receiver for a team.
29:01If let's let's pretend that Cleveland had Charlie Kalar or something at this point and they wanted to play him as the why.
29:09Like, could you tell me that it's more threatening to a defense to play a three wide receiver set of Concepcion and
29:17Boston and Judy than it is to put Fannin in that threat like or in that role?
29:23Like, that's not completely crazy to me. If you take off your fantasy hat and you look at just what can these
29:31guys actually do on the football field? How do they threaten defenses?
29:35So I'm a little leery of that with Fannin.
29:38And then the other aspect that I do think is a shorter term concern on top of, of course, the quarterback situation
29:46is that when he was out there last year dominating targets.
29:50I know targets are earned and I believe that.
29:53But he was competing against Jerry Judy in the middle of just a horrendous season for Jerry Judy.
30:00And like Isaiah Bond and Anthony Schwartz and there was like a guy named like Treach or Trash or Thrash.
30:07Thrash. That's the guy. It was it was the worst group of pass catchers in the NFL by an absolute mile that he was out there.
30:16And ultimately defenses, especially when they're playing ahead, they're not particularly threatened by your wide receiver group.
30:22And you're willing to throw a bunch of seven yard passes over and over to a tight end and catch up mode
30:30like defenses are going to let you do that.
30:33They do not care. So I do get concerned about this year.
30:37Another inhospitable passing offense. Potential route rate issues on top of the most pressing concern, which is they're going to have a real wide receiver room this year.
30:47We'll probably see some sort of bounce back from Judy.
30:51They added Casey Concepcion prospect. I love 24th overall.
30:54They come back at another top 40 pick wide receiver in Denzel Boston.
30:58If the targets start getting drawn up to go to the more threatening downfield profiles, where does that leave a Harold fan?
31:06And I think he's not going to fall off the face of the earth, but I think he's more similar to like Jawan Johnson level production.
31:15If we start to see something like that. And if that's the case, you start to feel a little bit questionable.
31:23Okay, why did I spend the fourth round pick on like a guy who's going to finish tight end eight every year
31:31when you can get a Dalton Kincaid or Jawan Johnson or even a Kyle Pitts significantly cheaper?
31:37So I think that there's a limited ceiling to Fannin and a little bit scarier of a floor than perhaps you might think.
31:45I like that you mentioned Dalton Kincaid is one of my favorite clicks now that he's passed round eight.
31:52I'm right there with you there. Kyle Pitts just got paid, which we haven't talked about, but I agree there.
31:59Even like the George Kittles. I'm with you. I think the price is not right for someone like Fannin.
32:05Now that I mentioned the quarterback play too, it's just I really don't think that's paying off.
32:11I really don't. Ryan, who do you have? Yeah, so I've got Carnell Tate here and this isn't really anything against Carnell Tate as a prospect.
32:21I liked him fine as a prospect and all that.
32:24I think he was a totally reasonable like top 10 draft pick in real life.
32:29I have like no issues with any of that.
32:33My biggest issue here is like why does he just already go ahead of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and even like Ladd McConkie, Luther Burden.
32:42Like I had Tate and Tyson neck and neck as prospects.
32:46If he went like kind of down in that range where Tyson goes, I would say, yeah, that makes sense to me.
32:54But this is like really presumptuous to me that he's going ahead of Wilson and Olave who both had, in my estimation,
33:01at least much better and more complete profiles coming out of the same school, coming out of Ohio State than Tate did.
33:09I that's the case. Basically, any way you look at it from a production standpoint, analytics wise, we have seen Garrett Wilson
33:17and Chris Olave actually put up wide receiver one level fantasy points, at least in different stretches in the NFL.
33:24Like, why do we just already have Tate up above those guys?
33:28I don't I get that the error bars like feel wider and maybe they literally are just because he's a rookie.
33:36There's much more like unknown upside and all of that.
33:39I totally get. But yeah, it's just too far for me.
33:43I don't think he should go ahead of those guys.
33:47And that just really, really stuck out to me kind of positionally.
33:51So, yeah, I would just rather wait till round five, make my kind of unknown upside bets on all the receivers in that round.
33:59And yeah, I don't really get why you're paying the premium for Tate, even like his short term outlook.
34:06I don't think it's considerably better than that of a Tyson.
34:10Certainly not better than that of a Luther Bird and a lad McConkie in terms of like the best case scenario that
34:18you could build for them in terms of scoring fantasy points in 2026.
34:22So, yeah, I just kind of don't get it.
34:26And like, I'm clearly missing something like where these drafters have this confidence to have Tate so high.
34:32You just don't know ball, bro. He's Ohio State.
34:35That's all you need to know. That's how it is with these wide receivers.
34:40You can draft other Ohio State receivers. I know.
34:43There are so many of them that have already scored fantasy points.
34:48But yeah, I hear you. As the guy that reads every comment, every reply you get on the fantasy points YouTube channel
34:55and then the fantasy points dynasty YouTube channel are all seen, read and replied to by me.
35:01I can already see the Carnell Tate reaction in the comment section.
35:06I see it coming already. I'm prepared for it.
35:09Just know that we hear you. We do not think he's a bad football player.
35:14That is why we kicked off with that at the top.
35:18Someone who I do think is a bad football player that also goes in the fourth round is Rasheed Rice.
35:25I don't know how many more stupid decisions we need to see to have him take a hit on his price.
35:33I don't think there's a world where he gets a significant extension.
35:37I do not think it is his talent that was the driving force to his production over the last couple of years.
35:45Nagy is gone. Biennemi is back. And yes, Andy Reid calls the plays, but we have seen for the last three years, the Chiefs offense be pretty mediocre.
35:55When does this change? Well, maybe that changes with the signing of Ken Walker, Patrick Mahomes coming back from injury.
36:02Slower paced run the ball play action type offense.
36:05We're talking about a wide receiver who every time his name hits the news, it's not for something good.
36:12Most recently, it was him sort of outrunning the press out of, hold on, prison for a guy on probation.
36:19That's the only time he's ever outrun press. Too true.
36:22Very much accurate. There's too many warning signs for me, guys.
36:26The type of routes he runs, they're not... They may be fantasy friendly, but they're not really upside friendly.
36:33A volume hog, drag running, not very athletic, 26-year-old, problematic wide receiver with no extension.
36:38Does that sound like a fourth round pick to you?
36:42Not to me. I think that there are other players that you can take.
36:47Give me pretty much every player in round five.
36:50I want out. I want out of Rasheed Rice.
36:53I would use this price to do so if you haven't already.
36:57I understand that he could smash this year. Guys, it's in the range of outcomes.
37:03But we're playing Dynasty, and he might have the worst long-term outlook of any non-mid-tier to awful quarterback.
37:09It's just not worth the risk to me. I want out.
37:13If you are a contending team, please, I'm begging you, trade for him.
37:17Because I guarantee you it's going to cost you less than the fourth wealth.
37:22It's just going to. I'm out, though. This is an insane price.
37:27I'm glad that it's finally coming down. It needs to go down two more rounds for me to even consider.
37:34I'm done. I'm out. I remember when we had Rich Rebar on the show last year.
37:39And I think, was it Josh Downs that he was like, you know, I'm willing to bet in that like two years or something.
37:48It was, yes. That Josh Downs scores Rasheed Rice.
37:51That take was rent-free in my head, by the way.
37:55Yeah. That take was rent-free in my head. I think of that any time anything happens with Rasheed Rice or Josh Downs.
38:02Like, oh, it's getting closer and closer. I know.
38:06That gap is closing rapidly. I'm not maybe quite as extreme on this as Tom, but like I've had a permanent moron
38:13doc on Rasheed Rice relative to his age in production in my rankings.
38:18And I've also had a gimmick doc relative to his age in production in my rankings.
38:24Ultimately, like, the way I feel about Rice is just that if you are more comfortable trying to read the tea leaves
38:31and timing the market up, you know, you probably have a decent chance of outproducing his cost relative to his age in 2026.
38:40Every time he's been on the field over the last few years, he's been targeted relentlessly.
38:45He's been extremely productive. He's been a fantasy wide receiver one.
38:49So I can't really dispute any of that. I feel just from watching them last year that the way that they were
38:57running their offense was not conducive to success. They have a new play caller in tow this year.
39:03Is it possible that given the dearth of other options, you know, the other two primary receiving options in this team are
39:11still Xavier Worthy and old Travis Kelsey, that they just end up running back a lot more drag routes to Rasheed Rice?
39:19Like, that seems totally plausible. I just personally, I'm like uniquely unwilling to be the person that loses a bet that way.
39:27I just really hate in Dynasty trying to hold on to a player that I personally think is kind of a scam
39:35and then letting the scam run out while it's still in my hands.
39:39So I would be looking to move off of Rice at this price and trying to get a value or trying to
39:47get an asset that I think is more secure and earns their price more with their talent rather than just their role.
39:55But it's really a play style preference situation. And if someone's confident that he's going to score points this year for the
40:03Chiefs, I can't totally argue against that. Yeah, I just think you're better off if you're looking at your portfolio and be
40:10like, man, I really want to add some points here.
40:14Trade form. I wouldn't build my team in that light.
40:17I think that it just, you'd be looking at an orphan team pretty quickly if you're a fourth round pick, wide receiver
40:25two on your team, just poof, loses everything. And now you can't trade them.
40:30I've seen it before, not willing to do it again.
40:34Let's talk round five, Jacob. Yep. Just want to point out the second time on this show that we've all agreed on a player.
40:42We all have Mendoza as our least favorite pick in round five.
40:46Yeah. I mean, this is just another spot where like I'm looking just one round above him.
40:52You got Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott as the quarterbacks going in that range.
40:57Like two guys that I feel like as long as they play the majority of the season, you can just lock in
41:05a low end QB one finish for Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott.
41:09Every time they suit up, you look right behind Mendoza.
41:13It's like Jordan Love, probably worse going to be a mid to high end QB two.
41:19And he's probably going to be that for 10 more years.
41:23Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff are over a full round cheaper, almost two rounds cheaper for Baker Mayfield.
41:29I would be projecting Fernando Mendoza to get outscored by those two for at least the next two seasons.
41:35And you're probably still getting five, six, seven, eight more seasons of starting value out of Mayfield and Goff.
41:42All the way down to Tyler Schock. Like not a high pedigree guy, obviously.
41:47But you're getting a young quarterback with mobility. I think a more fantasy friendly profile, far better weaponry play caller combination.
41:54He's two full rounds cheaper. And well, I think easily outscored Fernando Mendoza this year.
42:00So to me, you're paying a premium entirely for youth.
42:03You're probably not getting startable asset this year. I mean, he's probably literally going to be on the bench for the first
42:11four or five weeks of this season. And then when he does play, odds are, not guaranteed, you're probably getting production that
42:19looks more like very early Bryce Young, early Cam Ward.
42:22Low end QB2, most with a pretty low floor in a very run heavy offense.
42:28So I just think there's higher floor, higher production, higher ceiling outcomes all throughout this round that are not at the quarterback position.
42:36And like, I look at Mendoza going right next to Jordan Love and like, I just can't imagine if I ever got
42:44to round five and I needed a quarterback, why I wouldn't just take Jordan Love in that spot.
42:50Yeah. Not putting yourself in a position to even have to do that with some of the players we referenced in our
42:58favorite picks like Brock Purdy or Bo Nix or let's say Trevor Lawrence, who wasn't mentioned, but easily could have been right.
43:06Don't put yourself in this situation would be how I have it.
43:10Ryan, what do you have on this? Not really a whole lot to add beyond what the two of you guys said.
43:18I would just really emphasize like even outside of the quarterback position, the players that kind of go around Mendoza, like what you're missing out on.
43:27It's like three of my favorite upside wide receiver, like moonshot bets in Ladd McConkie, Luther Burden, Jordan Tyson.
43:34As we talked about in the favorites episode, I think Quinshawn Judkins is like an interesting stable value bet to make in
43:41round five for like a 2027 and onward type of play.
43:45You can get like legit veteran production in this round with an AJ Brown, who we talked about a week or two ago.
43:53So even with like a Saquon Barkley, who I'm kind of starting to warm up to like the Eagles offense and the
44:01whole idea of what Sean Mannion might do this year.
44:05Like there are just so many other avenues you can go that just excite me so much more than clicking a Fernando Mendoza here.
44:13Yeah, pretty, pretty lockstep here, guys. This is a this is a rough pick, not the type of 101 quarterback that I want to.
44:22Scott, don't don't listen to this. Maybe I'll put that in the description of the disclaimer to Scott.
44:28He's not going to he may not like this.
44:31Let's go into the sixth round. I'll start this off just so I can rip the bandaid off for years.
44:38I have defended one Kyron Williams in Dynasty. In fact, his jersey signed hangs proudly upon my wall as being my fat RB God.
44:47He was consistently acquirable, a consistent point score. He did it again last year.
44:52However, this is not a player who stands out in athleticism and breakaway plays.
44:57He is a serviceable running back above serviceable with give him some respect who scores touchdown and really, really lived on the they don't trust anyone else.
45:06Last year, that contract extension guys. And I don't know if I see a big next contract in L.A.
45:13in his future. They are trusting Blake Corum more and more.
45:17You're talking about a player who again relies on volume losing that volume and now relies on touchdowns.
45:23Kind of sounds like a lot of other running backs that you can draft.
45:28It's time to get out, in my opinion. But maybe less so in the trade market.
45:34Definitely so in the running back market. I mean, Derek Henry going right being the running back right after same kind of
45:42archetype of player in a much better situation for him.
45:45Who can also score a bunch of touchdowns, has the explosive play element to him.
45:51And then beyond that, guys like DeAndre Swift provide upside type as well and good offenses.
45:56Vermaindra Stevenson or you can just go and draft Blake Corum or Jonathan Brooks if you want some upside shots.
46:03But I don't see the true ceiling outcome for a player like Kyron Williams.
46:08Not somebody I want to anchor in the sixth round is usually my RB1 in some cases.
46:14If you're not jumping on the Quinshawn Judkins bandwagon that we talked about.
46:19I don't like running back in the sixth round period.
46:23I definitely don't want to kick off the sixth round with a running back with so many questions and everything that he
46:30relies on kind of being diminished at this point.
46:34I'm out. I'm definitely with you on that one.
46:37So I'll close out my least favorite. Pretty similar reasoning, honestly, in some ways to yours.
46:42It's another running back. It's another kind of plodding running back.
46:46But I'll go with Javante Williams here. And mostly because something that's under the hood from last season is just how poor
46:54the receiving production was, especially down the stretch. Cityland missed time early in the season.
46:59And Javante had a few higher upside receiving games in that window.
47:04He had six catches, five catches, three catches, five catches, which in weeks two through six.
47:09After that point, he had just one game for the entire rest of the season with more than two receptions.
47:16That came against Kansas City. And that same game was the only time he had more than 15 receiving yards.
47:24Only twice, starting from week five onwards, did Javante Williams have 10 or more receiving yards in a game.
47:3010 more receiving yards in a game. J.J. Zacharisen had a study on running backs who had a yards per run under .6.
47:38And on average, those running backs lost 1.5 PPR points per game the following season.
47:44This was a similar red flag to Chuba Hubbard last year, who had a fairly efficient rushing season in 2024 on very poor receiving efficiency.
47:53Sometimes you don't see how these things happen, but he eventually winds up losing his job to Rico Dowdle for a large part of the 2025 season.
48:02I think Javante showed some interesting stuff as a rusher.
48:06It was certainly his most impressive season on the ground since the devastating injury in his second season.
48:12But the total lack of juice in the receiving game is an area where I could see him losing work to even
48:20potentially Jaden Blue, who's been reportedly impressing at camp.
48:23And I think just limits the total ceiling of what I'm interested in if I'm investing a round six pick in an
48:31older running back who probably has very limited paths to increasing his dynasty value.
48:36So if I'm spending a round six pick on this kind of player, I want that really high ceiling of production immediately.
48:44That's the only reason why I think it's worth investing in a player like this.
48:49And if he's not going to have the receiving profile, then you're kind of becoming a touchdown dependent RB2.
48:56And that's what I view him as this year, more so than like a true workhorse RB1.
49:02Yeah, it's really teetering on the line. He is kind of like the last, right?
49:07It would be Josh Jacobs for me, but there's kind of some of that up in the air now because NFL players
49:15just every offseason have to do something absolutely insane, allegedly.
49:18But I'm with you here on the pure upside case.
49:22Even the difference between Kyron and Gervonta is just one kind of has a contract and the other doesn't.
49:29So I see the image for both players. They are to me that basically the same player at this point.
49:36Ryan, who did you come up with? Yeah, I agree with both of you on each of these running backs.
49:43For my guy, I wanted to go a little different.
49:46I originally had written down Jadarian Price, but it looks like the ADP we have on screen is from a different time
49:54period than whatever I was looking at earlier. So on the fly, I'll go with someone a little bit different here.
50:02I'm going to say Brian Thomas Jr. is my least favorite pick here.
50:06I certainly get it. I was a BTJ bull just a year ago coming off of that rookie season that he had.
50:14But when it comes to kind of catching these, I might call them like falling knife profiles where BTJ was seen as like the next elite ascending talent.
50:24Then the Jaguars really changed up their offense and kind of how things worked in the types of routes that BTJ was running.
50:32Right. I earlier in the season in 2025, they kind of tried using him in more of a middle of the field role.
50:40He very famously had like a few not so great moments in terms of effort, in terms of just like looking like
50:48he was fighting through the catch point. It just kind of wasn't there.
50:53They eventually shift to having Thomas run a much more vertical route tree.
50:57I wish I had the numbers on hand. I'll probably tweet it out later.
51:02But yeah, we saw a big difference in the percentage of vertically breaking routes that BTJ was running in the second half
51:10of the season, especially once Jacoby Myers, Parker Washington came into the offense.
51:15That was the version of the Jaguars offense that really succeeded.
51:18And that's with BTJ in basically like a downfield field stretcher role that just kind of sucks for fantasy.
51:25So I don't know that that's like all that BTJ can do in his career.
51:30But as long as he's on this Jaguars team and I'm assuming Liam Cohn's a smart guy, he's probably going to do
51:38what it takes to have an efficient offense and win football games.
51:43My kind of base case is that that's going to be what BTJ's role continues to look like into 2026.
51:50And you compare him just to some of these other wide receivers that you can draft in this round.
51:56And T Higgins, just incredibly solid value to production ratio type of guy has been for years in Dynasty and in every format.
52:04Zay Flowers we talked about on our favorite show.
52:08And I think even Marvin Harrison Jr. is like a much better bet in this vein of like the post-type year three
52:15breakout type of wide receiver sleeper that's kind of seen as like damaged goods compared to a BTJ.
52:22Harrison in three full games where he wasn't injured that he got to play with Jacoby Brissett averaged 18.7 expected fantasy points per game last year.
52:31That would have been the wide receiver four. By actual fantasy points per game, 14.9 would have been the wide receiver 11.
52:39Obviously, that's the Cardinals offense. They were trailing from behind.
52:42All of those volume stats are like kind of fake.
52:46But I don't know that that's going to be any different for the Cardinals this year.
52:52We have seen Mike LaFleur just kind of open up a heavy drop back game with Joe Flacco, with Mike White, back
52:59when he was the play caller for the New York Jets.
53:03They were averaging over 300 passing yards per game in like a very similar situation where the team just is really bad.
53:11But they say whatever, we'll drop back a ton and make up for it on volume and just feed all of this garbage time passing production.
53:20I think Marvin Harrison Jr. could be the beneficiary of that this year.
53:25And I just have an easier time making a case for him than for a Brian Thomas Jr.
53:31So, yeah, he's ultimately going to be my least favorite pick in this round, even if you flip it over into round
53:39seven, like Jalen Waddell, Jameson Williams, Devontae Smith, all guys that I just prefer straight up in Dynasty.
53:45So, yeah, BTJ is kind of the odd guy out here.
53:49I like that pick. I think that's going to upset some people.
53:54But don't worry. There's still a hundred different reports that every team in the league is interested in trading for Brian Thomas Jr.
54:02So, if you've already drafted him, there might be a way out.
54:06And guys, I can't end this show without pointing out the most significant football-related news that we could possibly discuss to close this out.
54:14Jake, I'm not sure if you've heard this or not, but the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have traded for Drew Brown.
54:22I just texted my mom about this during the show.
54:25I just texted her. I was like, what's up with Caleros?
54:29I have conspiracy theories. But welcome back to Winnipeg, Drew Brown.
54:33That's right. Coming back home, Drew Brown. We'd love to see it.
54:37Welcome home. Watch some CFL football. Trust me. It'll get you through the offseason, especially now that the UFL is over.
54:45Guys, remember, we don't hate these players. We don't think they suck completely.
54:49There's just some concerns for us making them our least favorite picks through the first six rounds.
54:55Hopefully, you enjoyed these two episodes together. We have more of them coming down the way.
55:01And don't forget, the Lives are back on Monday nights, 6 Eastern, 5 Central, and whatever time that is in Jacob's made-up
55:09part of the world and their time zone. So, be locked in for that.
55:14Be ready. Five for five and everything you love from the Dynasty Points Lives.
55:19We are back. Coming up in the next week or so.
55:22Remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose.
55:26That your best days are always spent tilting. We'll see you guys next time.
