0:00Another week of the preseason is in the books and that means there's a lot of news and notes about the rookies
0:08of the 2026 draft class floating around the Dynasty atmosphere.
0:11We're here to break down some of our favorite topics, some key decisions, some things that we care about and some things that we might not.
0:20So sit tight, lock in, you're getting the Dynasty Points Rookie Report and it starts right now.
0:26Guys, between injuries, lawsuits, odd potential cut candidates already, players waived that had so much promise, I'm ready for week one.
0:33Unfortunately, to get there we have to go through a little bit more preseason, but that allows us to shed some light
0:41on some of these rookies for better or worse.
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1:12And of course, get into the Discord. We're there all day, every day, giving you one-on-one feedback.
1:18Well, we had our first incident, guys, where a rookie running back who we were hopeful would go to a team with opportunity becomes the backup.
1:27He might get to play. Well, I was at a baseball tournament when I got the Jenty news and I almost fell to the ground screaming.
1:36And then I saw Jacob immediately post on thinking about thinking and I went, oh no, it's real.
1:42The news is real. Before I got the check and I wondered why I already had four trade offers when I checked my sleeper account.
1:51That involved Mike Washington. And that led me to think, and now we've got the Ken Walker news that came today.
1:58We're recording this on the 25th. That's the Tuesday.
2:02So when you're hearing this, it'll be the 26th or later.
2:05We get to talk about Emmett Johnson in this regard as well.
2:10I'm of the belief that you need to acquire these guys before the injury happens.
2:15When they happen, the player that has drafted these guys or traded for these guys, this is what they were waiting for the whole time.
2:23I went and checked the ADP. Mike Washington was ended up going and is going in the third round.
2:30And now you're getting trade offers that required 27 seconds, which were held is higher regard than 26 seconds.
2:37So guys, let's talk about how you're approaching these guys, how you would approach them moving forward.
2:43Because, well, the one scares, it is just a scare.
2:46We don't know what's going to happen in the future.
2:50So, Jacob, I'll kick to you. Mike Washington, Emmett Johnson, kind of how do you approach this?
2:56So I want to split up the specific and the general a little bit.
3:00So on the specific point, you know, it was a whirlwind on Sunday.
3:05It felt for a few hours that the most likely scenario was that Ashton Gentry had potentially suffered like a multi-ligament tear
3:13that would end his season and put his career in jeopardy based on the way that the injury was described.
3:20And then we get the notification a few hours later that night that, okay, it's just a sprained ankle.
3:26The reporting on the sprained ankle has continued to be weird.
3:30It's apparently more low than high. Clint Kubiak won't offer any form of official update today at the press conference.
3:37Whatever. It seems clear that the range of outcomes is somewhere between Gentry plays week one at best.
3:43Gentry misses a few weeks and maybe has a slightly delayed return to performance at worst.
3:49That's a very different picture than what we were looking at for this backfield on Sunday.
3:54And obviously it's a very different outcome for Mike Washington and what his upside potentially is this season than it looked like
4:02it was going to be on Sunday. That being said, the general take is I guess I would push back on what you're saying a little here.
4:11I mean, I'm not against the idea of drafting backup running backs in rookie drafts.
4:17I'm very much in favor of that idea. In fact, it's something I love doing in the third round of rookie drafts.
4:24I'm almost always scooping up a lot of these backups and I have a decent amount of Mike Washington from the third round of my rookie drafts.
4:34But I definitely think that we should not be attached to what the cost of a player was when the circumstances change dramatically.
4:42And I mean, if Ashton Chenty had suffered a season-ending injury or a season-altering injury, the circumstances would change dramatically.
4:49I think that there were, at the time, very different reasons why you may have drafted Mike Washington in round three.
4:56You may have genuinely loved Mike Washington as a college prospect.
5:00You may just, like, ideologically prefer drafting backup running backs versus dart throw wide receivers in that range or tight ends.
5:07You may have Ashton Chenty and you just wanted a handcuff.
5:11Like, who knows why you made that pick? Who knows how your view of Mike Washington has been altered over the course
5:19of watching him look really strong during the preseason?
5:22And who knows where you fall compared to other people?
5:25There might be someone else in your league who loved Mike Washington coming out of college, was super excited about him, and
5:33was surprised and disappointed that he fell to day three of the draft into a spot where he had no realistic chance of earning a starting role.
5:42But then, and maybe that person is not the type to go and attack running backs in rookie drafts.
5:49So they went and they drafted insert wide receiver here, you know, that has maybe a more plausible path to standalone snaps.
5:57But now, Mike Washington has a chance, or at least looked like he would have a chance to become a starting running back for the year.
6:06And maybe these Mike Washington truthers come back out of the woodwork and are much more intrigued by this opportunity.
6:13There's a bunch of different aspects to every single player's value that changes from the talent profile and the situation and all of that.
6:21And so, to me, like, we can't predict what's going to happen.
6:25And when a massive change to a player's circumstances happens, like, I think you should completely reevaluate things.
6:31If you're the highest person in your league on Mike Washington, just because you didn't happen to grab them when they were
6:39the backup to Ashton Jenty, if now the situation is Mike Washington starting running back or even Mike Washington starting running back
6:47for a few games with the chance to impress.
6:50Like, if you think you're the highest person in your league on his talent profile, then go buy.
6:56I don't think it's necessarily like some sucker move to buy higher than a player was drafted when the situation is completely
7:04different than what the situation was previously. So, anyways, that's my kind of macro take on these guys.
7:10Washington, specifically, I have a pretty mixed view on.
7:13Like, the analytical profile, really rough. Five-year prospect, was not very efficient until the last year.
7:19Still a mixed bag in the last year. Really athletic guy.
7:23I personally quite liked the tape. Um, I thought he had the third best tape in the class of the running backs that I watched.
7:31So, I was kind of in and out, um, on him.
7:35And then I was kind of happy that he fell to day three and that he was a guy we could scoop
7:43in round three of rookie drafts rather than a guy we had to go and pay a premium for at like the one-two turn.
7:51Um, so I'm, I would consider myself cautiously optimistic.
7:54You also do have the upside of, I think Ashton Jenty is still going to miss sometime, which means Mike Washington probably
8:02gets a week one start against the Miami Dolphins.
8:05That's the kind of opportunity for him to leave a lasting imprint in the minds of dynasty managers that could last literally
8:13years of what type of tantalizing upside Mike Washington has, even if you don't actually see him in a starting role, um,
8:20for the rest of the season if Jenty comes back.
8:24I love the way you just laid that out, Jacob, because I feel like I'm sort of on the exact opposite end
8:32of all of those possible places that you could be with Mike Washington kind of at every point through that you just described.
8:40So for me, I was almost rooting for him to fall to day three, not because I was thinking, wow, I can
8:47get like, I can scoop up so much of him for me.
8:51It was more, I just have no interest in this profile really.
8:56And I don't want to have to contend with the idea of what if a team just decides to install him as
9:03their starter when that did look possible for a while in the pre-draft process where he was being routinely mocked today too.
9:11Like this was one of the running backs that people were mocking to the Seahawks that people were mocking to these very
9:19open backfields, the commanders, all of them. So I kind of was a little scared of what Washington could turn into just
9:26in terms of I really hate having to take stands on these running backs where I have little to no kind of
9:34belief in the talent, but the opportunity is like very much going to be there.
9:39So it looked like I got off of having to even think or worry about Mike Washington for a while.
9:46Uh, and now that's like come back up, right?
9:49Uh, so I kind of fall on the, the end of, I don't think Washington is that talented of a running back,
9:57but Hey, untalented running backs, as you make a great point to say, have scored a lot of fantasy points, especially in
10:05one to two to three week samples. So I do think it's not as simple for me to look at my pre-draft
10:12evaluation of Mike Washington now and say, well, he'll probably just fail, uh, in week one and week two, and then he'll
10:20probably just go away and we'll never hear from him again or have to worry about him again.
10:26I think that is like eliminating an outcome that from my mind that absolutely could happen.
10:32Uh, so where I'm at on Mike Washington on Emmett Johnson, I think with the way that these, the injury reporting has
10:39lined up as we record right now for Ashton Gentry and for Ken Walker, who, for whom we know literally nothing about his injury.
10:48He, we know he's missing practice with a foot injury today.
10:52He could literally be back tomorrow. We could not even remember this two weeks from now.
10:57Yeah. This is a prerecorded show. So if you're listening to this, um, on Wednesday, August 26th, it's very possible that you know more than, than we do.
11:07We're recording this 1 PM Pacific time, Tuesday, August 25th.
11:10All we know is he has a foot injury.
11:13Like he could have a broken foot or he could be, he could have like a blister on his toe.
11:20Like both of those are equally possible right now.
11:24Yeah. Yeah. So thank you for giving me, yeah, my pre caveats before anything I'm about to say, that's all very, very important.
11:32Uh, but to me, I'm looking at this right now as there's a pretty decent chance that Ashton Gentry misses at least one game.
11:40Maybe Ken Walker will miss one game. If it's not early in the season, Ken Walker does have a tendency to miss games.
11:48This would not be the most shocking thing, uh, for Ken Walker, just looking at his career.
11:54Right. So I, well, while it's important to say, okay, we know there's a higher chance.
11:59Gentry is going to miss a game and that it could come earlier in the season to me.
12:06If I compare them to a Washington, to another handcuff, like an Emmett Johnson, I think I still am like inclined to
12:13lean toward an Emmett Johnson because I like. I see him more as a prospect, uh, because I see, like see him
12:21as just having like a more complete or closer to every down role for any game that Walker does miss.
12:28Uh, where with Johnson, I was more impressed by him as a pass catcher.
12:33Uh, he's funnily enough, like his advanced rushing metrics were just largely better than Mike Washington's.
12:38His were some of the, like the worst I've ever seen, which is like really weird relative to how he looks on
12:46the field and how fast he is and all that.
12:50Like the miss tackles forced all, all of those stats were just like not there for Washington.
12:55They at least were more so for an Emmett Johnson.
12:59So with me, I still am going to prefer an Emmett Johnson.
13:03I had him ranked higher than Washington in rookie drafts.
13:07I would take Johnson now for again, from a dynasty context where I am saying like openly admitting I'm zooming out just
13:14kind of thinking both of these backs could miss games this year.
13:18Both guys could get similar opportunities to kind of audition, uh, to the attention of dynasty managers, uh, in terms of their
13:26skill, in terms of their ability to take over a backfield for a game.
13:31I'm still backing Emmett Johnson, uh, in that contest, but I, this is one that could totally look foolish after week one for months and months and months.
13:41Like Emmett may never get an opportunity. So it is a really tough one.
13:46I maybe against my best interests, I'm a little more inclined to like cling to the, at least like the profile priors
13:53of what I thought of the player before, uh, the, the thing we thought could happen, which is that the starter gets injured actually happens.
14:02Yeah. At this point, I probably like Johnson more in dynasty as well.
14:07You mentioned some of Washington's metrics. It's a weird profile.
14:10So he did have some of the best, um, explosive run rates in the class.
14:15So the, the breakaway stuff was there. Uh, but yeah, you mentioned like the missed tackles forced rate was, was brutal.
14:23Um, so I, there's an interesting degree with him where despite being very large, I feel like he goes down on first contact a concerningly high amount.
14:32Um, I think there's some untapped receiving upside, just like from a tape watching perspective with him.
14:38I do think Johnson is a much more conventional fantasy upside bet.
14:42Um, assuming that the Walker injury is not that meaningful and assuming that the Gentty injury is no more than a couple of games.
14:50Like, yeah, I, I would prefer to back Emmett Johnson.
14:54Who's the guy that I had a tier higher in my rookie rankings.
14:58Um, but we'll certainly, we'll certainly see how this goes.
15:02I, I suspect with the, with what happened with Gentty now, the Washington becomes a, a player.
15:08That's like, uh, just like becomes illiquid where, um, if Gentty was over the season, I think you'd see a ton of Mike Washington trades.
15:17Cause people would have very different interpretations of what that means.
15:20But at this point, like if you have Mike Washington, how much are you really going to get?
15:27No one's trading you a first round pick because Gentty is going to miss a couple of games of the sprained ankle.
15:34Um, and are even, are people even giving 27 seconds anymore?
15:38I don't know. Um, I'd probably take it at this point.
15:42If someone wanted to give me a 27 second, you know, because of a couple of games that Ashton Gentty might miss, maybe that's possible.
15:51But otherwise, like probably what's going to happen is people are like, I don't want to pay anything for Mike Washington.
15:58Just because Gentty might miss two games. And if you have Mike Washington, you go, okay, well, great.
16:04I get to start him against the Miami dolphins and hopefully he scores me a lot of points.
16:11And then he'll go back to being, you know, what he was already, which is an interesting handcuff.
16:17I do think there's like some chance he could carve out a, a non-startable role in fantasy at all.
16:23But like, if he looks fantastic for two weeks, um, maybe he's able to carve out a role that is irritating for Ashton Gentty.
16:32And like gives him enough carries to look good, to keep him in dynasty managers memories, um, going into the off season.
16:39You know, if he gets like six to eight carries a game instead of two to four, that stuff can, can matter at the margins for value.
16:49Yeah. It's the Braylon Allen effect, right? Like it, you know, same kind of thing, but while you mentioned it, we've got
16:56a trade just from today's Chris Rodriguez and Mike Washington for Jacoby Lane and a 27 second, which is not nothing.
17:04Considering it's a 26 third that you were using to draft him.
17:08Um, he was involved in a Rashid Shahid Laporta trade that also netted a player at 27 one.
17:14So kind of uses a throw in to upgrade to a one.
17:18Then you get this one, Adam Randall and Mike Washington from the 24th for a 28 first and a 27 third.
17:26And that's just the kind of deal that I'm saying, like there is, there is a point where you have to be
17:33more responsible with the situation having changed to not tip your head so far over the skis on the initial news, which
17:41is where the initial price still matters to me a little bit.
17:45Like I couldn't justify spending for X just because we might get a couple of like, when we figured out where these
17:53guys went in the NFL draft, we kind of knew what needed to happen.
17:58For them to hit really like more like probably 90 plus percent.
18:02So there's just kind of a way to maybe be more prepared, let's say as dynasty managers and less reactionary to the
18:10point where you have to pay so much more because again, a lot of dynasty managers want to draft these guys when
18:17we know where they're going to up that price.
18:20So that's, that's where I sit on the side of it.
18:24There, there is a, I'll say responsible point to value.
18:28Just one more kind of actionable point. I, that you just reminded me of Tom, that I think we've talked about this
18:35before, but it bears worth repeating now that it's August.
18:39Just overall, when you're managing a dynasty team, you should be a little bit less reactive and more concerned with making mistakes and mitigating big downside.
18:48I think then I would say that about any other format in fantasy football.
18:53So over the weekend, if you were plugged into Twitter, you may have seen screenshots of people getting Ashton Jente in high
19:00stakes, redraft fantasy football leagues at very, very appealing costs.
19:04He was falling Jacob. Jacob, I know drafted him in round four, uh, in a big gorilla.
19:10I saw him going in round six, round eight on FFPC.
19:14Like that was happening. Good for those people. That's a format where it is one entry.
19:19The league only lasts for one year. All the money is in the grand prize up top.
19:25You should be shooting for upside and be okay with burning an entry or yeah.
19:30Setting a team on fire. Uh, when we don't know what the news is, that's always a format where I'm willing to take risks, right?
19:39In dynasty, I think there's almost no point to trying to trade off of breaking news from an hour ago where we
19:47don't know whether Ashton Jente is going to play most games or any games this year.
19:52Uh, I would just rather back myself in dynasty when we all have all of the information.
19:58I'd just rather back myself to make the right decisions with that rather than gambling on.
20:04Hopefully I guess right. When nobody actually knows what the case is for these players and for the injuries.
20:10Uh, I, I just think in that format where the downside chases you year after year after year, if you sent your
20:1828 first or what, whatever future draft capital or players that could have been redeemed for future draft capital, your decisions follow you for years in dynasty.
20:27And I would just always rather make them with the fullest information possible rather than lean into, yeah, maybe I can get
20:35a super team here if I'm lucky. But like, if I don't, I'm stuck with this dynasty team for the next few
20:43years that I just gambled away, uh, off of a, yeah, a lack of information.
20:48Yeah, totally agree with that. Like that was my advice, um, for the brief window of time when we didn't know that
20:56much was like either whether you're trading for Washington or you're trading for Jente, like just take the conservative assumption with whoever you're trading for.
21:04Like assume the absolute worst for whatever player you're trading for when we're in uncertain news back yourself as a dynasty manager.
21:12Like believe that you can build a good dynasty manager or build a good dynasty team over time, like without putting your
21:20team status in injury roulette of like, well, I'm going to bet on this player with a completely unknown injury and like hope that I get good news.
21:29Um, you know, or, or bad news, I guess, if you were trading for Mike Washington, like that to me is like a silly way to play dynasty.
21:39It's a, it's a, it's a way to play dynasty that honestly like displays a lack of confidence in your ability to
21:47build a team without just praying for good luck.
21:50Um, so I, I mean, I'm not saying you can't buy low on injured guys, but, um, I would make sure you're
21:58buying really low on injured guys and not like just kind of trying to have it.
22:03Um, while nobody knows what the injury is, like, I think just take a pause on for, take a pause for the
22:11cause on that one and probably build up the old fashioned way.
22:15Um, talk about another hotly discussed player. Last week we talked about the Omar Cooper playing behind Isaiah Williams and lo and
22:23behold, Omar Cooper plays ahead of Isaiah Williams this week, preseason week two.
22:27Now we had a very kind of back and forth discussion.
22:31The comment section was, was kind of one side or the other with the stripling and Cooper conversation.
22:37My opinion hasn't changed, but Jacob, I, I want you to talk about the Omar Cooper thing.
22:43This kind of stuff happens every preseason where we seem to latch onto the first early bit of news and let it kind of run wild.
22:52So where do you stand with this and, and the outlook, let's say for dynasty moving forward.
22:58I'm going to pitch it to Ryan after very brief comments.
23:02I think he has a rant prepared, but, um, I don't know.
23:06Like to me, like if we are going, it's one thing, you know, if, if, when we talk about the Mike Washington
23:14conversation, like again, let's assume that Ashton Jenty was out for the season.
23:18That would be a massive shift. And how we view Mike Washington, we should recalibrate, but like, you know, and there's room
23:26certainly for like gathering more optimism on certain players have really strong camp buses to a point.
23:32Um, but if you're going to like move someone drastically down the board, especially, or swap them with players that were in
23:40completely different tiers before you've even seen a singular regular season snap of a guy.
23:45Then I guess like just find something else to do from March to July.
23:50Cause like, what's the point of investing all that time and in like talking about these prospects.
23:56And if one preseason game where Omar Cooper is behind Isaiah Williams is like going to drastically change how you view Omar Cooper.
24:04Like, I don't know if you didn't like Omar Cooper before, then you shouldn't like him now.
24:10And if you liked him before, I'd probably fucking relax.
24:13I, that caps off like most of the rant that I was going to go with.
24:19I think really my thing is every single year there are preseason storylines that people become very invested in.
24:25And rookie is playing behind veteran that we've never really cared about in fantasy and probably isn't that good early in August is like one of the most.
24:35Recurring ones that basically has almost never actually turned out to matter.
24:39Now it matters if it never changes, but it changed in a pretty timely fashion.
24:44And Omar Cooper got ahead of Isaiah Williams to where he should have been just like Justin Jefferson and BC Johnson all of those years ago.
24:54Right. So I just, if I mean, maybe I'm just talking to nobody, maybe nobody fell for this whatsoever.
25:00And, uh, and nobody like needs this advice, but I just, if you fell for that, if that like massively changed your opinion on Cooper.
25:09Yeah. I would echo what Jacob said. I think either just fine.
25:13I would even extend it, find something else to do from January through September 1st, so that you don't give yourself the
25:21opportunity, uh, to like make mistakes during the like fire hose of August news.
25:26Or spend even more time, uh, like developing your takes in your opinions in January through July, because I do think that
25:33the stronger and like better reasoned and more thought out your take on a player is the more difficult.
25:40It's going to be for kind of an in the moment news item to shake that.
25:45And in my experience, that is usually a good thing in August in the dynasty format, uh, to not allow your views of players to get radically altered.
25:55And if that's easier for you, if you spend even more time digging into prospects, consume even more content on the prospects,
26:03however that is that you do it, I would recommend it.
26:07Honestly. Yeah. I mean, every year is just Jefferson can't separate tomorrow chase.
26:11Can't catch a football. Um, like, I'm sorry, you have, you have to remember that every August, the people that have not
26:19been around football for the last six months all come back.
26:23So if you're one of the people that's like been with us through the entire year, you should instantly be able to
26:30spot the people on Twitter that have not, that have not been around for the last six months.
26:37Because that, that's the type of stuff that they tweet and that they get really worked up about.
26:43And I think it's, it becomes a skill to filter that out.
26:47I think. It's also important. Oh, I was just going to say that like, it's, it's not like it's, it's nothing.
26:54Like you, you obviously would prefer to have strong preseason reports than not.
26:59Um, but I, I just think that we do like everyone can bring up the different anecdotes in any single direction.
27:06Right. So like Traylon Burks was a guy who had, um, pretty bad, uh, preseason reports and obviously he became a massive
27:14bust and that's easy to remember in hindsight. Um, Garrett Wilson was in the same class and he played with backups as
27:22a first round pick in his first preseason game.
27:25And he turned out to be very good. Um, and like, you can come up with examples of Pukunikua as like a
27:32random guy who got a bunch of training camp buzz and obviously turned into a superstar.
27:38And you can come up with Darwin Thompson who got a bunch of training camp buzz and is a like past and probably future five for five answer.
27:48Like, so I mean, every single player, you want to hear more good things than not.
27:53Um, I would say on the whole probably gets over baked in more than it does get under baked in, but like
28:01try to view every player, I guess, in their own vacuum as much as possible.
28:06Um, is what I would say. But yeah, I mean, Cooper, like it, this is a weird one, man.
28:13Like he's going like we're dynasty show, like in seasonal leagues and stuff.
28:17Like the FFPC main event drafts for 20 rounds and he's like regularly going undrafted.
28:22I've never really seen anything quite like that. It's bizarre.
28:26Yeah. Yeah. A little bit odd. I think it's just generally the take on that whole offense or the whole projected offense.
28:34Maybe. I don't know. I don't know, but I will say another week, another big week for stripling, let's say in a new injury to Mike Williams.
28:43I think that is going to immediately kind of re-steam that conversation for a lot of people.
28:49We were, we're talking about Mike Evans, not Mike Williams, right?
28:53Yes. Sorry. I'm not losing my mind. Oh boy.
28:56I don't know why I'm thinking about Mike Williams.
28:59Uh, probably cause we talked about him five for five and now he's just locked into my brain.
29:05But Mike Evans, right? Another injury to him. Another, another setback.
29:09Again, it's just lining up for stripling as well.
29:12We saw another heavy usage week for him. And after we talked last week about he's the type of player that you
29:20can get an early return on your investment. We're seeing around the industry, the conversation of those 27 ones get brought up.
29:28We're already kind of, I have this feeling that a stripling continues to get this kind of runway.
29:34There's the kiddle situation where he might not be playing week one.
29:38Uh, Christian McCaffrey is, I don't know if he's just, if he's actually banged up or if he's, you know, just like
29:46you're good for the rest of the preseason, Christian, just relax a little bit and we'll get you out there.
29:53But guys, there's a legit runway for like a nuclear takeoff with, with stripling.
29:58And at that point, it's, it's going to be hard to put that back in the bag.
30:03If you would, um, I'm very, like, I'm very tempted to like, kind of get out, but I don't know if I should be talked off the ledge.
30:13For getting out if I can, or if he's just like, Hey, if this hot start hits, it's, it's a sustainable.
30:21We were all immediately wrong. It's one of those feelings, right?
30:24When we are off of a player off of a player and then the situation has changed and I'm like, wait, was I wrong the whole time?
30:34Should I, should I just let this ride? Should I get out while I'm ahead?
30:39Um, serious conversation about a legitimate nuclear type takeoff.
30:42I think the important process point on stripling or any player who has like this much of a hype train attached.
30:49And there's like such a hot topic who probably a lot of people have very different valuations on is to avoid the
30:57impulse to label someone as a buy or as a sell.
31:01And instead try to think of what is the price that I think is appropriate, set a price in your mind, and
31:09then be in active trade conversations regarding this player and as many leagues as possible.
31:14Um, because I, I would wager that if you pulled up the trade tool that you would find a pretty wide spectrum
31:21of prices on what it costs to get to John stripling.
31:25And I'm sure if he found 10 trades, I could find at least one or two, um, where I like the stripling
31:33side and at least one or two that I don't.
31:36Um, so, you know, and the other thing I would stress from a process perspective is, is like we just said, like,
31:44try not to anchor yourself too much to the sunk cost fallacy.
31:48So if, if what you're telling me, uh, you Royal, you not like you, Tom, um, like, so, you know, someone tells
31:56me, okay, I don't want to buy stripling for a first round pick right now because I don't think he was this
32:04great of a prospect and et cetera, et cetera.
32:07Like that sounds pretty reasonable to me. Someone is like, I don't want to buy John stripling for X price right now
32:14because his ADP was 210 four months ago. Like I would say that's a, it might even be the right answer.
32:22I think it's a bad, uh, process. I don't think it really matters.
32:26Like what his cost was a couple of months ago.
32:30I think we should evaluate him right now based on everything we know that doesn't mean throwing out the prospect profile either
32:37and only evaluating the situation and the hype train.
32:41But I think we should take seriously that, you know, the prospect profile, which is pretty rough.
32:46I still maintain, um, in addition to the draft capital, which is really positive, the offensive opportunity, which is really positive.
32:54The fact that Pure Saul, um, is out for the season in a way that he wasn't during rookie drafts, that Mike
33:01Evans is dealing with injuries in a way that he wasn't during rookie drafts.
33:06Like all that stuff is really positive, but what he's looked like in preseason, really positive.
33:12Um, I don't think it's like just the preseason stats either.
33:16I think like he looks legitimately impressive, um, running routes, extremely strong hands.
33:20Um, the way he's been able to win inside and outside, um, on different routes has really impressed me.
33:27So I think it's totally fine to have like a very different opinion of a player today than you did in May.
33:34The question is like, is that opinion upgrade enough in context with what you think of his prospect profile to where you
33:42find yourself on the stripling side of more trades than not?
33:46Like, I don't know. Um, my personal outcome is probably the most boring one, which is if I could get a 27,
33:54one or 28, one, I'm probably just doing that.
33:57Um, that may look silly, but there are not a lot of wide receivers in the NFL that I think are worth
34:04more than like a first and a half. There are, I'm looking like at my rankings.
34:10Let me pull them up right now. There are one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight total that I have being
34:18worth more than a first and a half. So what are your chances of losing that deal really badly?
34:24Um, I think, I think small, right? Like, is he going to become one of the best eight wide receivers in the NFL?
34:32Maybe like Puka Nakua did, you know? Um, but probably not.
34:36And so I think that your chances of losing that deal big are pretty small.
34:41Um, I definitely wouldn't sell for less than a first.
34:45I mean, why should you at this point? Um, it doesn't, it doesn't really make sense to, in my opinion, and then
34:52you're opening yourself up to losing big. So that's probably where I land.
34:57Yeah, I'm going to be in a similar area.
35:00Uh, I know that a week or two ago when I was on this show, I was giving a take that was
35:08similar to that, but with a second, right? Where I was saying very often the guys that are not really thought of
35:15or cared about as prospects in any significant way that start getting like out of nowhere camp buzz, specifically talking about like day three picks.
35:24I was saying it's very rare that they become worth that much more than a second, at least in their rookie years.
35:32That was my take on Cyrus Allen, uh, a week or two ago.
35:36And yeah, I think there, Jacob just laid out kind of a similar thought process for stripling, but of course upgraded to, Hey, this guy went 33rd overall.
35:46And there is a much clearer opportunity here and he has actually performed in the preseason games.
35:52It's like all the other like things you want to pile on to stripling, I think are fair in terms of upgrading kind of where that conversation begins.
36:02Uh, so yeah, I would be open to acquiring stripling, uh, in dynasty in seasonal leagues.
36:07It just is very much going to come down to cost for me.
36:12And the, I, if we're just thinking of players to compare them to, I think one of the more helpful comparisons, uh,
36:20that I've landed on in either format is Casey conception.
36:23Where you can say, all right, I want to be really in on this wide receiver that went in the late first to early second.
36:32That is playing for a genius offensive play caller that could kind of surprise us in week one with how much he plays.
36:40Maybe he won't play a ton. Maybe he'll play a lot.
36:44Uh, maybe he'll see, I'll be very involved. Maybe he won't be, uh, and he's absolutely destroyed the preseason and has.
36:51Just had been a rocket ship in terms of positive reporting.
36:55Uh, and I think you can apply both everything I just said to both Casey conception and John stripling.
37:01Uh, to me, the difference for conception is that he was almost universally loved.
37:06I'd say by like the film evaluators. Uh, and he was, I, I would say more split for the numbers and analytics
37:14people was conception's profile, but I count myself. Among the conception believers, uh, from a numbers perspective, I know Jacob did as well.
37:22Uh, and a lot of people I respected as well.
37:25So comparing that to a stripling where he was definitely like a trendy, like film pick.
37:31Uh, and it, everyone always brings up, Oh, he was going in the second in, in all the sharpest mock drafts, uh, even before the draft.
37:40And that was true to some extent. He was genuinely like a trendy kind of riser guy.
37:46I never thought there was that much to the analytics profile.
37:50Uh, I won't speak for Jacob, but I, it sounds like he didn't either.
37:55So yeah, to me, there is still like a very clear difference in separation between somebody like to John stripling versus Casey conception.
38:03Even if you want to say, Hey, striplings is playing with a better quarterback this year.
38:08He's on a, what we expect to be a better offense.
38:12Certainly than I think that's at least counteracted. If, if not even more like overruled or overtaken by, yeah, but we know
38:20conception is starting in week one, regardless of, uh, what we find out on the Wednesday injury report, uh, on September 8th
38:27about Mike Evans or George Kittle or Christian McCaffrey.
38:30Like I do know that conception is going to at least be starting in three receiver sets for the Browns.
38:37That's every indication that we've gotten that that's what he's earned.
38:41So I think from either a dynasty or a redraft perspective, if I'm just looking to roll into week one and see
38:49what happens, I still think that a conception is in like a much stronger position than a John stripling is.
38:56Um, but, but I mean, I'm very prepared for either of these guys to prove me wrong or to massively outshine the
39:04other for, or for both to shine. Let's hope that happens.
39:07Okay. I was really hoping this season was going to be different in Tennessee.
39:12I was not incredibly high on cam ward last year.
39:16It was one of the most contested conversations we had between us and chats and comment sections.
39:22Didn't look any better, uh, in week two of the preseason.
39:25Uh, I'm now very sad for all of my Wanda Robinsons, but I'm increasingly sad for the Carnell Tate season.
39:32I had Carnell Tate, my Wider Zero One of the class, not really a big shocker or a big, you know, pounding of the chest.
39:41One of the few, but this looks like it could genuinely be a disaster with the way the season is shaping up.
39:49I've been trying to trade some of the Carnell Tates that I have to kind of move into some other wide receiver
39:56territory in and around where he is. I'm not sure where you guys are on that scale.
40:02Last week, we had people when we talk about, we were talking about Tyson and the injury and how it affects.
40:10We had people in the comment section asking us about trades for guys like Jameson Williams straight up and some, some other
40:17trades in the discord being passed around because they were concerned about the injury injury history and moving off them, et cetera.
40:25This is an injury related. This is just purely situation related and it looks quite horrendous.
40:31I think we can say from this point. So I want to know where you guys are, what your outlook is.
40:38I think the situation can change very quickly. I mean, we see that with wide receivers who get stuck with poor quarterback
40:46play quite often, but I want out. If on, on, if I have him on any team that I'm trying to score
40:53points for this year, I would love to hear where you guys are at.
40:58I've moved Tate a bit down and redraft. I was never that much of a Tate guy.
41:04He was my pre-draft wide receiver three. He, um, I mean, I guess he'd probably be my rookie wide receiver one in dynasty rankings now.
41:13Cause I, I had moved him ahead of lemon due to the draft capital fall and then Tyson's missing half the season.
41:20So I guess he would be my one as of today by default, but I already had some skepticism regarding him.
41:28I wouldn't change his dynasty outlook that much based on the pre-season.
41:32Um, shout out my guy at fantasy kosh. Uh, this was Drake Mays 2025 pre-season stat line, 58% completion percentage, 4.8 yards
41:40per attempt and a 37 PFF passing grade. He then went on to finish one vote away from winning most valuable player last year.
41:48Um, I, I would not like massively shape my opinion of cam ward going into the season based on a couple of drives in pre-season.
41:57Even if he has looked quite horrendous during it, if you want to fair enough, I definitely think that like, if he
42:04is as bad as it looks in pre-season, at least with cam ward, I would say that, yeah, you probably do need
42:12to get out fast because the bottom could completely drop out this year with Carnell Tate.
42:18I wouldn't consider it to be quite the same rush.
42:21Like, even if cam ward is completely incompetent this year, we're pretty sophisticated as a dynasty market these days.
42:28Carnell table, I think have opportunities to prove whether or not he is worthy of investment going forward.
42:34that is pretty independent of cam ward's play. Um, like obviously Carnell Tate could also be terrible and cam ward could be
42:42terrible, but I think that even if cam ward is so bad that Carnell Tate can't score points this year in a
42:49meaningful way, which we don't know to be the case that I think the dynasty market will still look to, okay, well, what are his peripheral stats?
42:59And that's probably how we're going to judge him moving forward with the expectation of they'll probably get a new quarterback if cam ward is truly that bad.
43:08So, um, I, I wouldn't move him down more than a spot or two in dynasty.
43:14I'm going to do a big dynasty tiers update this week.
43:18And I won't have him in a different tier than what I had him before.
43:23Um, or at least I don't expect to, I moved him down about a half, um, or even half or half a round in my redraft rankings though.
43:33So I have changed my outlook a little bit in 2026.
43:37I was already low in redraft in general. Um, I, I just add the only thing I'll say on that is I
43:44think if you are rooting for Wandale Robinson to like get a ton of targets, then Titans dysfunction is actually totally fine with you.
43:53That's kind of how he survived or how, or I shouldn't even say survive.
43:57That's kind of how he thrived in New York was regardless of what the dysfunction on this office is.
44:04If they can't block anybody, if they can't move down the field, at least they can throw, uh, to Wandale Robinson behind
44:12the sticks on every third and eight. So he does get PPR points for doing that.
44:17And that, that is, um, maybe like at cost, the redraft angle I'm most interested in on the Titans for 2026.
44:25Uh, but yeah, I largely agree on Tate and dynasty.
44:28I did move Tyson behind him. I initially had, uh, the two of them back to back in my wide receiver rankings.
44:36I moved Tyson right behind Tate with the hamstring injury just because yeah, the history of wide receivers that miss half their rookie season can't be like amazing.
44:46It can't be like a great thing. That's something I want to adjust to, but yeah, like the idea that we have
44:53to update our opinions of Tate going into the year because it looks like the Titans might be a really bad offense.
45:01And so I, I mean, I've got news for you, buddy.
45:05I, we knew that, uh, back in April, uh, that, that was absolutely priced into my Cornell Tate ranking, uh, in rookie
45:12drafts, it in startups, just an understanding. Yeah, this could take a year or two or three before there's like a competent
45:20offense here to, that is going to immediately lead to him scoring fantasy points.
45:25And yeah, Jacob makes a good point. That is not actually that relevant for a rookie wide receivers.
45:31Dynasty value. Ted Arroa McMillan was not all that amazing for fantasy last year, but he held his value quite nicely, uh,
45:39because he looked awesome and his peripheral stats were awesome.
45:42This happened with Garrett Wilson for years and years.
45:45It happened with Drake London for years and years.
45:49Like it's kind of, it's plowed ground. I would say I'm not.
45:53Yeah. I'm worried about Tate from a dynasty perspective because of, how good or bad cam ward might be this year.
46:00Yeah. I'm looking at it more from, again, a team where I'm definitely up there contending, wanting to score points and very
46:08much willing to use Tate to go and get them more than I was before.
46:13Drake may is not cam ward, right? As a prospect and what we saw as a rookie, let's say.
46:20I don't know if my like previous opinions about cam ward or just kind of making what I've seen so far.
46:27And then not just for me, but from other people, I trust again, I'm not a quarterback scout.
46:33I don't think most people can do it. Um, I think most of us are terrible at it because there are just
46:41so many moving parts to the whole thing. Um, I don't know if it's confirmation bias.
46:46It could be, but for pure point scoring potentials, like if I'm not just purely looking at the dynasty value side of
46:54that, I have no issues trying to use him to go and get somebody we know is going to again, be a kind of a difference maker.
47:03Cause again, a lot of dynasty players just play on the value game.
47:08And I don't know. I just don't trust them on a contending team.
47:12I don't, um, I mean, I don't think, I don't think that it's that that's, that's fine.
47:18I guess. I don't know what, I don't know what his values like now versus what it would be previously, but I
47:26don't think that the expectation ever should have been that if you're taking him at the one Oh two or the one
47:34Oh three this year, that, that that's making a meaningful impact on your lineup anyway.
47:39Like, I mean, he's, he's been like around six redraft pick all year.
47:43He's slipping about around in the redraft markets, but like, you know, that puts him in a similar range in terms of
47:51like expected contribution to your season this year. It's like Jalen Warren.
47:55So I don't, I don't feel like if, if the goal was to maximize the impact to your contending lineup, this year,
48:03like this is one where I do feel like the time to trade the pick was April.
48:09So his dynasty ADP was going in and around players before players like a lava, Garrett Wilson, Brees hall.
48:15Like those are just all players that I would, I would be trying to, to go and grab right.
48:22It's a point score with dynasty value. Like even as a flowers rounds later, if you can get the additional pieces on
48:30top to make that make sense, like that's, that's what I would be doing.
48:35Well, I think you could. I just feel like the problem is you, I get what you're saying.
48:41You're all, you're almost treating him. Like if you're a contender, Carnell Tate is actually just an extra first that I have
48:49on my roster that I can use to like, go buy a player.
48:53I think it's going to actually score points this year.
48:57And I think that's a totally fine and valid way to look at it.
49:01But I guess I just, it has to be a pretty specific roster for me to say it much, much like it
49:09needs to be a specific roster for me to trade my 27 first, I guess it needs to be a specific roster
49:17for me to say, no, I actually have no interest in value appreciation happening on my bench right now.
49:23And I would much rather maximize my points heading into week one.
49:28This might be different six weeks from now. I went with, if I have a clearer idea of, yes, this team is a contender.
49:36It's five in one. And Tate, I now am very certain that Tate's doing nothing for me this year.
49:43Like, I think I'm more open to what you're saying.
49:46I kind of like once we've gotten into the season a little bit, not, not too deep, like not so deep that
49:54it can't help you as much anymore. But yeah, what just, when we know a little bit more about it, also who
50:01the player is that you should be trick, that you should be trading him away for that.
50:07You should be acquiring. I think I like to wait for a little bit more certainty, like with what I'm buying and
50:15with what my team is before making that type of move.
50:19I'd say, I think that's fair. I think there's a fair way to look at it.
50:24Last player to talk about before we get out of here, Jacob, you had hopes that this was going to be a Rashad white kind of season.
50:34There's a lot of people that wanted it to be a JCM kind of season.
50:39JCM dealing with injury. White's been dealing with injury.
50:42All that kind of leading to the fat RB God, having a runway moving forward.
50:47Do you fear that this backfield just ends up becoming a muddled mess?
50:52No, no, I don't. Okay. I remain really high on this backfield.
50:56I'm like in seasonal formats. I'm substantially overweight on, on literally all three of them.
51:01I do think there is an outcome where it's a muddled mess, I guess, but I don't think that that is super likely.
51:09Part of the fun in this too, is that, so I guess it's not fun for them.
51:15So maybe I shouldn't say fun, but Jerome Ford is on season ending.
51:20IR Jeremy Nichols has been projected to start the year potentially on IR.
51:24Those were guys that were pesky veterans with pass catching chops that I'd seen some people fear mongering about.
51:31I mean, at this point, like I think that if the, the backfield has kind of narrowed itself a little bit here
51:39to white JCM and Katron, you mentioned white and JCM are both dealing with an injury.
51:44It doesn't seem like either is particular, or is it necessarily serious?
51:48White seems to me locked into at least a pass catching role.
51:52I don't see the other two fulfilling that. And then, you know, the, the worst case scenario, I guess, is that they
52:00split the rushing stuff evenly between JCM and Katron and everyone becomes not that valuable.
52:05I personally was not that impressed with the Katron Allen preseason experience.
52:10I thought he looked juiceless and slow. So, so I put him on the sheet cause I think he's going to get a lot of buzz.
52:19Most of everything that I'm hearing, hurting hearing out of camp is that they are very impressed with JCM, particularly that they
52:26kind of want him to be the guy that they want him to prove himself in the receiving game.
52:33That's made me a lot more interested in him.
52:36I think it's possible he does that. I think if he doesn't do that, I am still much more comfortable with white as like an all around threat.
52:46Like, I felt like Katron had a chance to have a pounding drum beat.
52:51I wouldn't say it's been that for him. So I think he's an interesting stash for sure.
52:57Um, you know, if you have him, you're probably excited about some of the injury stuff.
53:02He's getting reps with Jaden Daniels right now at practice.
53:06That's fantastic. Um, but to me, I'm still targeting JCM and white first and foremost.
53:11And I, I think Katron is a stash. I also think that if Katron does prove me wrong, I'm guessing, and I'm
53:18hoping that it comes fully at the extensive of JCM or that someone's hurt.
53:23Like I, I just, I just think that a lot of people get really afraid of three person backfields.
53:30I think it's very unlikely that for a sustained period of time this season, all three of them will be healthy and
53:38all three of them will have a role. I think it's going to be a two person backfield or maybe even become
53:45a, a one person backfield with a clear RB two.
53:49And in that case, I still think it's a steal, um, where you're able to get.
53:54Yeah. It really seems like the commanders are hungry for what every report you hear from them.
54:00And I, it's always hard for me to tell when we're this late in the off season, if this is actually just
54:08a result of like a beat writer echo chamber or if it's legitimate.
54:12Like the one I just, the one I just watched on my screen run.
54:17Yeah. That runs also sucks. A lot of these runs suck.
54:21Um, anyway, the preseason, I'm not, I'm not trying to overreact, but I, I just like, he got a lot of carries.
54:29Okay. Yes, he did that. He did, uh, the, what we keep hearing in this preseason is that the commanders want, nice run.
54:37they want bill to win the job, but by when the job, they really mean we want bill to be able to
54:44operate on passing down so that he can just be on the field.
54:49And we don't have to worry about tipping personnel.
54:52Uh, they want to run this much more like under center play action, heavy offense, where the whole point is we are
55:00disguising the run in the past and we can do either, uh, out of any look from any down and distance and, and all that.
55:08The reason that they seem to want bill to win the job and to, to like get up to snuff in those
55:16passing situations is because he's the more explosive back in their view.
55:20And probably in my view. So I do think if you play that scenario out, either way you play it out of
55:28either bill succeeds or bill doesn't, the bill doesn't succeed.
55:31End of that is Rashad white is the, the default kind of, uh, not bell cow, but like most valuable back for
55:39fantasy, uh, where JCM gets more of like the situational, uh, carries and doesn't have a passing game role.
55:46Right. So I, I think either way, you're probably getting a good, um, like fantasy producer one way or the other, or
55:53at least like a fantasy relevant producer, whichever way that gets split.
55:58It wouldn't really make sense for it to be split three ways, just because the, it really, it sounds like the only
56:05reason they would split it is just out of necessity.
56:09They don't want to split it. They want one guy that can, uh, not tip their personnel.
56:15So yeah, like a full on committee doesn't really make sense to me.
56:19There's not been really any like positive words about Katron from the team, at least that have picked up that much traction or that have crossed my radar.
56:29Uh, so I, yeah, I'm not really viewing Katron as like, he had a great preseason and this is like now, and
56:37that he's now a factor in this backfield outside of, we get like an unpleasant surprise on September 8th with the industry
56:44report, or with the injury report for, for either white or JCM or both.
56:49But yeah, I mean, the Katron thing, I think it still makes sense for the reasons it made sense as a rookie
56:57draft play, which is the guy who has legitimate college volume.
57:01He's like a real boy rusher. He's plausibly a goal line type profile on a team that doesn't really have an obvious other one.
57:09Um, and it's an ambiguous backfield. So all that stuff still applies, but everything that Ryan just said about what per reporting
57:17the team is looking for in their backfield, it doesn't really suit Katron that well.
57:22I mean, the two things he emphasized is they want a running back who can be an all situations player in the run and pass game.
57:31And two, they'd prefer if that player is explosive.
57:34Um, I mean, Katron has, has no real past game experience and is not explosive.
57:39So I, I find it pretty unlikely that he's going to fit either of those, if those two are priorities.
57:46Um, uh, I guess like to Tom's earlier point, the absolute nightmare scenario is that like some point during the season, Katron
57:54becomes like a guy who takes five carries a week.
57:57And three of them are at the goal line and he's like an unstartable Mike Tolbert.
58:03Um, but that who also renders the other two unstartable.
58:06I was thinking more like a Sean Tucker level annoyance.
58:10Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Speaking of Sean Tucker, I mean, different, we're not on the rookie show, but, um, that annoyance might be
58:18out of Tampa Bay soon per report. Yeah. Saw that.
58:21And Hey, we're going to talk about that on the live, but you can go back and watch, uh, when you're done
58:29watching this video, I would highly suggest doing it.
58:32I will say my favorite with all the talk about Katron and you guys nailing it.
58:37They want a more explosive player who can catch passes.
58:41My favorite like backend stash players, Robert Henry right now in that backfield, because while everyone's talking about the other three, I
58:49kind of want the guy that most people aren't discussing.
58:52And Robert Henry five, nine, right? One 96. He's at a UTSA.
58:56And I think, you know, not a, obviously not a highly touted prospect at all, but has looked explosive.
59:03Uh, definitely has more past game experience than Katron does.
59:06And kind of feels like he fits the mold a little bit better.
59:11Maybe for what they're looking for is Ryan, when you were mentioning not tipping plays.
59:16So we often talk about getting the handcuff wrong when it comes to being dynasty managers.
59:22I like Robert Henry's throw his hat into the ring, into the mix.
59:26If something does happen, I feel like he can maybe more seamlessly fit that role.
59:31I am just concerned that they're going to look at Katron and be like, well, like we saw the first graph we
59:39put up, people talking about, well, it hasn't lost any yards.
59:43He's not going to be a net negative for you.
59:46It might be a net negative in that he doesn't provide much.
59:51Right? So I like Robert Henry. If you're looking for a sleeper or a backend to your roster stash, he's definitely somebody I want.
59:59There's some fun stuff with Henry's profile. 4.22 yards after contact per attempt last year.
60:04That was one of the highest marks in the class.
60:08Above average and missed tackles force as well. Um, like for about five seconds, I almost got really excited about finding a running back sleeper in the class.
60:17And then you look at the rest of the profile and you're like, Oh, he played at UT San Antonio and he
60:25was like 24 years old and he has no receiving profile.
60:29But I do think he has like some legitimate juice as a rusher.
60:33So, um, as a, as an end of bench stash, I definitely have time for, for Bob Henry.
60:40Good old Bob Henry. All right. That's going to do it for this show.
60:45Every week we're going to be breaking down a rookie report.
60:48So stay locked in. If you have questions about a rookie that's been trending, you want to know our opinion, don't worry.
60:56We got you covered every single week here on dynasty points with the rookie report, stay locked in.
61:02And as I mentioned before, you're going to want to go back and check out the live.
61:08We talk about more veteran type situations like the Tampa Bay backfield news coming out of that.
61:14This episode, we're going to be talking about the, uh, kind of more feverishly talked about than expected Raiders wide receiver camp
61:22battle, which I didn't realize was an, as strong opinions as there are out there, but we're going to talk about that this week.
61:30So go back, check that out. And of course, stay for five for five, not going to miss that either.
61:37For Jacob Sanderson, for Ryan Heath, I'm Thomas Tipple.
61:40This is dynasty points. Remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose and that your best days are always been tilting.
61:48We'll see you next time.