PodcastFrom Dynasty Points
These Offensive Changes Will Crush Your Draft Plans
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 14 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 15, 2026
Published
Wed, July 15, 2026
5
Player insights
5
Players mentioned
Topics
Dylan SampsonMalik NabersMarvin Harrison Jr.Quinshon JudkinsSaquon Barkley
Player analysis
Player insights
Dylan Sampson
NegativeUsage4:00
Sampson had one of the most efficient receiving seasons of any rookie running back over the past five years, but his target volume is partially inflated by small-sample situations: 8–9 catches in Week 1 with Joe Flacco (who peppered him repeatedly) and a 50–60 yard screen pass against Raiders in Week 12 (Shadur Jackson's first start). His college receiving profile was run-of-the-mill, not elite like Jameer Gibbs. Under Monken's system, Sampson likely handles passing-down work in 2026, though Judkins showed late-season receiving upside (3–5 targets in final games) that could shift the split if he proves elite.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeRole68:27
Nabers' fantasy value is severely constrained by the Giants' receiver room uncertainty and his health status. If Nabers misses time or returns at half health, the Giants could have either the best or worst wide receiver room in the NFL, creating a high-variance, risky situation. No one else on the team is producing, making Nabers' health and role critical but unpredictable.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveRole14:24
Harrison benefits from Michael LaFleur as new Cardinals play caller. Conventional wisdom expects slow, run-heavy offense, but LaFleur showed willingness to unleash veteran QBs in negative game scripts with Jets: 300+ passing yards per game (more than any 2025 NFL team) and 60% pass rate (6th-highest among play callers past 5 years) when removing Zach Wilson starts. In three healthy games with Jacoby Brissett, Harrison posted 18.7 expected fantasy points per game (top-4 WR mark) and 14.9 actual (top-12), alpha over Trey McBride. ADP outside Round 5–6 in both formats despite McBride's expensive cost. 40% chance Harrison is leading receiver; layering high-dropback-volume scenario creates value for elite prospect entering Year 3.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
PositiveRole1:56
Judkins benefits from Todd Monken as new Browns play caller; Monken has run efficient offenses with Ravens (Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry), Buccaneers, and Georgia. Monken historically separates primary runner and receiver roles—Dylan Sampson likely handles passing downs. Judkins projects as a two-down back in an offense expected to struggle and lose games in 2026, limiting ceiling. However, Judkins could see Josh Jacobs-level 30+ receptions and 40+ targets if he asserts himself in negative game scripts; 2027 upside (post-top-5-pick, new QB) is more compelling than 2026 production.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeRole70:38
Barkley's role in the Giants offense is expected to be limited and uninspiring. Fantasy Points projects the Giants to have a bottom-two running back offense (alongside the Dolphins), with pessimism driven by the overall offensive situation and uncertainty about whether the team will feature him meaningfully.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Denk an den 31. Juli Wieso? Last Call für deine Steuer Oh no, ich weiß gar nicht, wo ich anfangen soll Bei
0:07Wieso Steuer, das ist wie Steuererklärung, nur ohne Stress Ist das einfach?
0:12Klar, macht fast alles automatisch Dauert das lange? Nö, einfach per App Na dann?
0:16Hol dir jetzt dein Geld zurück, mit Wieso Steuer, bis zum 31.
0:20Juli abgeben 4, 5, 8, 9, 8, 9, 0, 1, 0, 1, 4 Schluss mit dem ewigen Abtippen von Kartennummern, dank Visa
0:28Click2Pay Ohne 16-stellige Kartennummern einzugeben, Passwörter nachzuschlagen oder extra Apps herunterladen zu müssen So kommst du beim Online-Shoppen direkt ans Ziel Mach
0:35online bezahlen einfach, schnell, sicher Mit Visa Click2Pay Einfach beim nächsten Checkout auswählen It's safe to say that we are in the
0:43dog days of Dynasty Summer It's really tough when you are lacking information and things to really depend on Or things to
0:50give you that advantage Well luckily, with Fantasy Points, we have people like Ryan Heath and Jacob Sanderson Who spend all of
0:58their time trying to find you the greatest edge in Dynasty Fantasy Football And we have it Ryan Heath wrote the 2026
1:05New Play Callers article Fantasy Football Impacts And we thought, how can we use this for Dynasty?
1:11That's what we're doing today This is Dynasty Points And it starts right now Hello everybody, welcome back to Dynasty Points Joining
1:19us in our small corner of the Dynasty Fantasy Football landscape And we are, again, working towards helping you make the best
1:26decisions possible And how can we do that? Well, by leaning on guys like Ryan Heath, who wrote a phenomenal article Came
1:34out July 9th It's must read You can do that at fantasypoints.com Paywalled now But it is more than worth the price
1:41of entry Ryan, we tasked you with finding five players Five things that we should care about with new play callers To
1:48help Dynasty Manager So I'm going to send it to you Yeah, thanks I will do my best So the first guy
1:56that I want to really talk about is Quinchon Judkins With Todd Munkin being the new play caller for the Browns this
2:03year The biggest thing to me with Munkin, when I evaluate him, is just recently He has had one of the most
2:11efficient offenses in the NFL Of course, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry help with that a ton But really his entire resume is
2:18very impressive Back-to-back national championships at Georgia Had an extremely fantasy-friendly offense With the Buccaneers back in the day Like Munkin has
2:26just kind of done it all He's been great for us in fantasy football And in theory, it should be really strong
2:33Or really bullish or really good For a player like Quinchon Judkins To be attached to Munkin I like any player that
2:41is attached to a play caller like this So that is kind of driving me to be higher on Judkins in Dynasty
2:48But I guess kind of the interesting wrinkle And what I want to kind of pose to Jacob And pose to everybody
2:56here Is I am in on Quinchon Judkins Because of Munkin in Dynasty I'm ahead of consensus on him in Dynasty But
3:03I'm not in redraft this year Which is like not something that I try to do often Like being in on a
3:11guy in Dynasty out in redraft Usually those two things overlap But I think this is one case where it might not
3:18Or it might not need to My biggest issue is that the Browns this year Regardless of how good Munkin is long-term
3:26Are not expected to have a very strong offense And are not expected to win very many games And that's a real
3:33problem for a player like Judkins Who at least to me Projects as much more of a two-down type of running back
3:41If we look at Munkin's history He has often used a primary runner And a primary receiver in his backfields They've always
3:48been separate players He's never had the same running back lead In attempts per game and targets per game And that goes
3:56back all the way to his days With the Buccaneers We have all of these on screen here That the viewers can
4:03watch on YouTube But I think there can be a similar setup here This year with Dylan Sampson Who just had one
4:11of the most efficient receiving seasons Of any rookie running back over the past five years So there's kind of a natural
4:18split here And that's really bad for a two-down runner Like Judkins on a team not projected to win many games It's
4:26going to be a lot of negative game script I just don't know that Judkins can hit Like the really high outcome
4:33that we want him to In 2026 But this is kind of how I would square the circle I would say that
4:41Kind of regardless of what happens this year Whether Judkins overperforms ADP expectation or not Very likely we're going into 2027 Where
4:48the Browns have a top five pick They probably add their quarterback of the future And then we flip the page And
4:56suddenly Judkins is still a two-down back Most likely But on an offense We actually might be excited about With a play
5:03caller we're excited about With a rookie quarterback That we're potentially excited about So I kind of think you can't lose He
5:11either overperforms this year And his dynasty value stays high or goes up Or he just gets like really strong Off-season indicators
5:18Coming up this next off-season So yeah I'm just interested in what you think About this Jacob Am I just a fool
5:25for Kind of trying to have one foot in and one foot out Not just being in on Judkins this year But
5:33like yeah Kind of hedging in dynasty like that Or does this thought process make sense to you And do you have
5:40like other thoughts On Judkins as a dynasty asset Or Monk in himself?
5:45Yeah I mean on a zoomed out view I don't think there's anything wrong With necessarily having some players That you're higher
5:52on In dynasty than in redraft I don't try to get too bogged down Into the idea of market timing Where like
6:00I might like a guy At his cost now in dynasty But I think maybe I could get him cheaper Because I
6:07don't like how he's going to play this year That to me has just never really been how I operate I think
6:15you try your best To view it as two separate markets And sometimes those markets aren't Perfectly efficiently aligned And you do
6:22have to be more in on someone In one format than the other Looking at Judkins specifically in this offense I'll echo
6:30all your thoughts on Todd Monk And I've always thought he was a really strong play caller Tom's of course very familiar
6:37with him As a play caller Having been watching the Ravens closely For the last few years I've been a huge Todd
6:45Monk fan Dating back to the Bucs Dating back to Georgia So I'm excited to see what he can do With this
6:52Browns offense Especially if he remains the coach Next year Maybe they have better quarterback play I've been like not crazy in
7:00on But like a little above the market on Judkins In both dynasty and in redraft this year He goes in a
7:07range in redraft With like a big lot of running backs I'm curious When you say you're not as in on him
7:15Who exactly you're taking over him Or taking him over Because there's that big group there Basically from Trevion And Montgomery And
7:22Bucky Irving And DeAndre Swift And Quinchan Judkins And Basial Tootin And maybe I'm missing one But it's a huge group And
7:30I have Judkins probably Towards the front end of that group Because I think he is One of the better combinations Of
7:37a legitimate talent upside bet As a year two player With a lot of juice And of a guy that I'm just
7:45100% sure Like if he's healthy He's getting 250 carries this year You know maybe that there's an element To which those
7:52aren't the most valuable carries In the world But at least it is a locked in volume floor With an intriguing talent
8:00The one thing I'll say If you want to be more optimistic On Judkins It's like yeah If I was projecting this
8:07out In my Excel sheet And I was projecting the most likely scenario I would put Dylan Sampson in For most of
8:14the passing situations But I don't know that it's like Super super clear We didn't have that much of a sample Of
8:22Sampson playing In strict passing situations last year If you go through The very first game of the year Obviously Judkins didn't
8:29play Ford was playing most of those spots Sampson was racking up a ton of volume As an early down receiving option
8:37And then Once Judkins came back Ford for a while Was still playing a lot of the designated Pass down snaps Sampson
8:44started cutting into that A little bit more As the year went on But then he also got hurt himself And he
8:52didn't play as much Over the second half of the year Due to injury Some of the target Stuff that I've seen
8:59on Sampson I think I'm like Half in and half out I'm believing it Half in because Just watching him Last year
9:07And in college Of course Go Vols I always thought He had Untapped potential As a pass catcher Coming out I thought
9:14that he looked Really fluid as a pass catcher Last season I think that if they use him In that role He'll
9:22continue to succeed I do think Some of the stats Is a little bit elevated By a couple of Kind of small
9:29sample-y things The first week When Sampson Basically got to be the lead back Because Judkins Was still out Was with Flacco
9:37And Flacco Just threw to him Repeatedly Like over and over And over again I think he had like Eight or nine
9:44catches In that very first game Fannin had a similar level Of short area spam It just seemed like The Bengals were
9:52giving the Browns Anything they wanted Within 10 yards And Joe Flacco Obviously is more than willing To pepper that repeatedly And
9:59then Where a lot of the efficiency Comes from Is he had like One 50 or 60 yard Screen pass Against the
10:07Raiders In I think it was Shadur's first start Week 12 Yeah Like how much of Sampson's total Passing game Like targets
10:14per outrun Yards per outrun Profiles Like one game Where he got hyper-targeted With Flacco And one screen pass Like when we're
10:22dealing with I think like In the mid-30s Numbers of targets That counts for a lot It's not like We're dealing with
10:29Like an 80 target sample So I'm not saying He didn't earn that He looked really good In that first game In
10:37the passing game And he obviously made An incredible play On that screen pass But I do think It's maybe a little
10:44bit Overstated The degree to which He's some locked-in guy Like coming out of college This was not a Jameer Gibbs Receiving
10:52profile This was like a very Run-of-the-mill Receiving profile Not that dissimilar To Quinchon Judkins Who also had like a very Could-go-either-way
10:59Type college receiving profile I thought Sampson Had some untapped potential there He showed that year one But I think if Judkins
11:07Plays like a superstar He could take on More of the passing down work Than maybe we assume Well even if you
11:14look at Judkins towards the end Of the year last year He was getting a little Bit more run in the past
11:22Three targets One target two And then five In that in that Buffalo game He ended up getting hurt in So he
11:29showed that He could do it a little bit And remember We mentioned it On last week's episode We're talking about sleepers
11:37Because I like Sampson as a nice And how coaches And how coaches can be We'll see But I'm 100% with you
11:44Ryan That it really doesn't matter What happens this year Because all eyes are towards 2027 Yeah I guess What I could
11:51see for Judkins Like at an apex Is like I think back to like Titans Derrick Henry Usage I'm not comparing him
11:59to Henry as a player Obviously It's not Heard it here first Quinchon Judkins Is Derrick Henry Jonathan Taylor Gets some of
12:06this too Where like They're And obviously Judkins has to prove himself To be like a real Star level talent For this
12:14to apply But there's an element To which when those guys Get into Like a normal game They typically never play The
12:21strict passing down Situations That's where you find Them some snaps off But In games that they trail Teams use them more
12:29In passing situations Than they normally would Because they They're like Well this is our best player And we're not just Going
12:36to not use him In the entire second half Because we're in comeback mode And like That's what I would be Hoping
12:44for for Judkins That like On a regular third and eight You know It's Samson But I'm hopeful That when they're A
12:51negative game script Because they're going to Often be a negative game script That they're willing To be like No no We're
12:59not going to let Ourselves get game script That are using our best player And I think Largely that Has something to
13:06do with the coach But I think it has The most to do with Samson himself As can he assert himself As
13:14such a good player That he's worthy Of that type of Fluid treatment We'll find out Yeah I can definitely see Early
13:21Raiders Josh Jacobs level 30 some receptions You know 40 some targets And 270 240 carries Like you said And that's Still
13:29going to be Really solid in 26 Let alone 27 Yeah There's definitely A world where It's enough Of a pass catching
13:36Roll for Judkins I don't mean to Preclude that Possibility But yeah Based on The Monken tendencies I just outlined I tend
13:44to think It will be Samson This year But yeah Fully agree That like Especially in Dynasty Where we can just Kind
13:51of find out Oh actually He's going to be More of a pass catcher Than we were projecting Based on His rookie
13:59season Like I agree That that's still A little bit Unclear And that does Make him a little More attractive Of a
14:06bet I just Because you asked Jacob I would say The two guys That go behind Him pretty Consistently That I'm more
14:14In on this year From like a Redraft perspective Would be DeAndre Swift And Bachel Tootin Both basically For similar Offensive environment
14:21Reasons And Tootin I think Also has a little Bit of an element Of he could Catch more passes Than people Are
14:29projecting Kind of similarly But yeah That's where I'm at On Judkins And Munkin So good discussion There The next guy I
14:36want to bring up Is someone That is Close to all Of our hearts In Dynasty circles It's Marvin Harrison Jr.
14:43Getting Michael My guy Yeah Jacob's guy Finally Three years Three years it took Getting Michael As his new Play caller It's
14:51been Not been my Boy yet So Yeah It always It always feels Like it gives you A little bit Of extra
14:58credibility To be able to say I have not been in On this guy Until now Like that It's fun to do
15:06the It's fun to do the Dump and pump Yes So I'm in Kind of a Similar Situation Or at least I'd
15:13like to be Based on some Of these Play calling notes That yeah I'm curious Kind of What you guys Make of
15:21this I think the Conventional wisdom On the Cardinals And on the floor This year Is that They're going to Want to
15:28be Very slow paced And run heavy They have spent All of their Draft capital And free agent Money On running backs
15:36On guards So that's like A fair enough Conclusion That a lot of People have drawn But what I Would point out
15:43Is that LaFleur Was not Really Happy to just Sit and lose Games And run over And over When he was With
15:51the Jets A few seasons Ago As their OC calling Plays Right So if you Just remove Any game That Zach Wilson
15:58started We are left With 12 Starts between Joe Flacco And Mike White Over two Seasons In those Games The Jets Averaged
16:06Over 300 Passing yards Per game Which was More than Any team In the NFL Last year LaFleur Had a 60% Pass
16:13rate Over those Two seasons Overall Which would Rank 6th highest Among all Play callers Over the Past Five years Top six
16:20In pace As well Like he Really showed A willingness To unleash These Yeah More veteran Quarterbacks The non Zach Wilsons Into
16:28these Negative game Scripts To put up A ton Of dropback Volume And to Kind of Field A more Respectable Offense Via
16:35that Route Not dissimilar From what The Cardinals Did last Year So I'm Not saying That the Cardinals Or Jacoby Brissett Are
16:43going To lead The NFL By far In P-row Or in Dropbacks Per game Again I'm More Saying That there's A world
16:50Where this Is not A run Heavy Team And that To me Is most Applicable To Marvin Harrison Jr.
16:57Just based On where The ADPs Are Trey McBride Is quite Expensive Across all Formats Harrison Really is Not though Going Outside
17:04Round 5 Round 6 In Dynasty And redraft Alike Right So When you Just look Three full Games 18.7 Expected Fantasy Points
17:12Per game That would Be a Top 4 Mark At the Receiver Position 14.9 Fantasy Points Per game A top 12 Mark
17:19Of course Those are A little Inflated By the Dropback Volume We just Talked About But Even The Share Stats Were Really
17:27Strong Just In That That's Pretty Crazy Considering The Year McBride Just Had One Of The Best Tight End Seasons We've Ever
17:34Seen Harrison Was Alpha In Him At Least In Those Three Games That They Were Healthy Together With Jacoby Bursette So There's
17:42Like I Don't I Always Feel Like I'm Copping Out When I Say Oh There's A World Where This Happens But I
17:49Think It's Decently Like 40% Chance That Harrison Is Just The Leading Receiver On This Team I Think You Layer That With
17:57The Chance That This Is Actually A High Dropback Volume Team And You Can Suddenly Draft Like One Of The Most Impressive
18:04Analytical Wide Receiver Prospects Of The Last Decade Going Into Year Three At Like A Pretty Cheap ADP In All Formats Like
18:12That Like Gets Me Kind Of Excited I Guess Where I Really Have Trouble Sorting It Out And What I Want To
18:19Hear Your Guys Opinion On Is Is This A Better Bet Than The Younger Receivers That Have Like Legitimately Flash More Than
18:27Three Games Of Production In The NFL I'm Thinking Of The Luther Burdens Where Depending On The Format Harrison Might Go Ahead
18:34Of Or Behind Them But That That's Kind Of Just The Range That I'm Trying To Sort Out My Marvin Harrison Thoughts
18:42In Right Now So I'll Turn It Over To You Jacob I've Talked Off That I Mean I Think Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:49Is The Number One Buy In Dynasty Right Now And Not Because I Like Him Better Than Those Three Guys You Mentioned
18:57But Because At Least Based On Anything I've Seen He's Substantially Cheaper Than Those Three Guys That You Named Especially Burden And
19:04Ibuka I Think That Before I Get Into The Micro Stuff Like About La Fleur And Two Of The Top Ten Pick
19:12Wide Receivers In 2024 Marvin Harrison Jr. Clearly Ahead In Career Yards Per Outrun Over Roma Dunze At This Point Up Over
19:191.5 For Harrison 1.33 For A Dunze And It's Interesting To Me That One Of Them Is Still Talked About Very Favorably
19:27There's A Lot Of Context For Any Of The Reasonable Excuses That He Has Harrison I Feel Like People Are Just Willing
19:34To Put Into The Dust Bin And I Think It's Largely Because People Had Higher Expectations For Harrison But That Makes Sense
19:41Psychologically But Realistically If We're Talking About What Do We Expect Going Forward Would You Rather Have A Guy Who's Been More
19:49Disappointing But Who You Have More Reason To Think Is Good Or A Guy Who Disappointed You Less Because You Had Lower
19:56Expectations But Also You Still Have Less To Work With I'm Going To Get Over The Disappointment And I'm Going To Bet
20:04On The Guy Who I Have More Elite Ceiling Indicators In But I Think That We Have Seen Countless Examples Of Players
20:11Who Have Just Taken A Little Bit Longer To Get To Their Peak As Players And I Think That Is Almost The
20:19Last Frontier To Me Of Young Upside That Is Not Priced In Is Just Betting On Players To Play Better And Particularly
20:26Betting On Good Prospects To Show Why They Were Good Prospects Even If It Takes Them A Little Bit Longer Than You
20:34Want Them To Because I Tweeted About This Earlier Today I Feel Like People Are The Market Is Now Very Willing To
20:41Bet On Production They Haven't Seen Yet If There's A Straight Forward Case For It I Keep Both Guys Or Especially In
20:49Henderson Case The production while Stevenson was active is nowhere close to what you're drafting now.
20:54But I think there, you know, there was enough signs people feel good about the talent.
21:00They're like, oh, well, you know, if Burden just gets more routes and he's ahead of a Doonesday in the pecking order,
21:07or if Henderson just gets more snaps, people already feel comfortable with the talent and translating it forward.
21:13It's a little tougher to make like a logical case for Harrison because you have to just say, well, if he's way
21:21better than he was, it's kind of what we need him to do.
21:25And I guess I'm just betting on that there's a pretty good chance that a guy who was one of the best
21:33wide receiver prospects of all time and hasn't really played up to that level yet will just get better over time.
21:40Like a lot of these other big physical outside ex-receivers have taken a little extra time.
21:45We saw Nico breakout in year three. We saw Pickens have like a partial breakout in year three and a massive breakout in year four.
21:54And the Michael Fleur of it all just gets me more bullish on a bet that I was already pretty interested in making anyways.
22:02You know, you mentioned people think he might be slow and boring.
22:06His brother is slow and boring. But like he is uniquely a person who's come from both sides of the Mick Shanahan tree.
22:14And yeah, a lot of the Shanahan side of the tree do tend to be slow paced and run heavy.
22:21The Mick side of the tree mostly doesn't. You know, that's Zach Taylor who throws it constantly.
22:26Kevin O'Connell is when he doesn't have JJ McCarthy, typically pretty pass happy.
22:31Liam Cohen has led two consecutive top 10 P-row offenses.
22:34And like you mentioned, Michael Fleur with the Jets, I thought ran a pretty dynamic offense and a really competitive offense.
22:41So I'm excited to see what he does. I definitely, like I said, I don't think that like Harrison's usage or Kyler
22:49was the only issue with his first two years, but it didn't help that he was constantly posted up at this really static position in the offense.
22:58He had this really limited quarterback trying to throw him the ball in a way that didn't really fit.
23:05And I definitely think if he gets more dynamic usage with LeFleur and a better quarterback pairing, that there's going to be
23:12an easier opportunity for him to play ball. So I'm super in on Marvin Harrison.
23:17I think he's a big buy and the LeFleur thing is a big part of that.
23:23Yeah. Couldn't have said it better than myself, honestly.
23:26I think especially in Dynasty, this is like a very straightforward type of bet.
23:30I pretty much just fully agree. Yeah. We'll see where I end up ranking him in my redraft draft guide based on ADPs around different sites.
23:39But yeah, he's a guy I'm giving a lot of thought to even just immediately in 2026.
23:45I'm more, I'm more in him in Dynasty than in redraft because I think that the payoff is so much larger where
23:52like, he's a guy where I've already, like, I know he's been disappointing, but like, if we can all just be like
24:00reasonable people, he's, he's already played well enough for two years as a young player that I don't think he's like falling out of the NFL bad.
24:09Okay. Like this isn't trailing Burks, right? Like he's, he's going to be in the NFL for a while.
24:16He has real skill sets. So to me, if like the worst case scenario is he bounces around like somewhere between a
24:23Romeo Dobbs career or a Cortland Sutton career, like he's still worth a two, you know, at the end of the year,
24:31even if that's what we know he is. And if all of a sudden we see a huge breakout, he could be
24:38worth a first and a half or two firsts.
24:41And I mean, you know, as much as everyone hates him right now, if he comes out and he averages 17 points
24:49per game for the first four weeks, everyone's right back in.
24:52Everyone's remembering, you know, he's the prince who was promised again.
24:56Like people are going to have real short memories about the mean tweets that they said about him in the meantime.
25:03And so I think that just the asymmetric upside on the price where like, if you can get him in like the
25:11late first value range, you know, you're, you're not losing that much if he, if he's just whatever, and you could gain a lot redraft.
25:19I still have them way out of market. Like I just did my FFPC main event rankings yesterday.
25:25I have them at 61. So right at the five, six turn, he goes toward the end of the sixth.
25:32I'm ahead of him on all formats, but dynasty is, I just think where you get the biggest payoff.
25:39Yeah. Great points all around. Um, I'm going to, or sorry, Tom, you want to go?
25:44Yeah. I was just going to say a lot of the reasons like people want to be so quick to be out
25:52on him entirely regardless of prices, because what's on the screen, a lot of the wide receiver boys, like guys that we
25:59really play dynasty a lot with were pre clicking Marvin.
26:02We've talked about Jeremiah Smith and how he's going to go number one and dynasty rookie drafts already.
26:09That was Marv. He was, his ADP shows Caleb being ahead of him.
26:13But in 90% of the leagues I was in, even if teams needed a quarter, I watched guys whose dynasty QB two
26:20was Andy Dalton run as fast as they could decline every trade to take Marvin Harrison.
26:26That's the type of hype he was getting, which is why like Jacob mentioned, the disappointment is so strong.
26:32The stink is so heavy. Look at the guys to go behind them.
26:37Daniel's already gave you a smash season. Neighbors did Rome is carried.
26:41Drake may just went to a super bowl or skip seven.
26:45Brock Bowers is awesome. Skip worthy. Brooks is getting re steamed again.
26:49BTJ had one of the best rookie seasons of all time.
26:52And so did lab McConkie bow. Nix was the number one seed in the AFC, like watching how it is peers that
27:00got drafted around him performed makes his disappointment stand out.
27:03Everything you guys said is absolutely true. If he comes out and gives you guys those first three weeks, all is forgotten.
27:11The hope is back. It's hashtag year three breakout for Ohio statewide receiver season.
27:16More than reasonably priced. It just this ADP. This is why that stink hurts so bad for so many people.
27:22All right, let's move into my third play caller and player pairing.
27:26Let's talk about Zach Robinson and what he's going to do with the Buccaneers.
27:31So the biggest thing that jumps out in terms of Zach Robinson as a play caller the past couple of years has
27:39been motion at the snap or during snap motion.
27:42He has used it more often than any other play caller outside of Mike McDaniel over the past five years.
27:49He has done it at nearly twice the rate on his dropbacks as former Buccaneers play caller Josh Grizzard from last year.
27:56So this is going to be a big change in Tampa, a lot more motion at the snap.
28:02We have seen this be just generally an efficiency cheat code, get about a 43 percent per route fantasy production boost from
28:10all players on the field, just if anywhere during snap motion is used.
28:14And specifically for Baker Mayfield, as we talked about last week, it's been a very big boost, about a 50 percent adjusted
28:22net yards per attempt boost with motion at the snap.
28:25So really my question here is which receiver do we pick as the beneficiary in case the Buccaneers offense kind of takes
28:32off again with Robinson for this type of reason.
28:35So my first instinct was Chris Godwin. So Chris Godwin has been one of the most productive receivers for any like during
28:43snap motion type of player over over the past couple of seasons, third in yards per out run with motion at the
28:50snap since 2024 behind only Puka Nakua and Nico Collins.
28:54Even last year when he was playing extremely injured, he ranked second in yards per out run with motion at the snap
29:01on a smaller sample, but still over four yards per out run in any split or context for Chris Godwin last year is pretty eye popping to me.
29:11So you add you add into that that Zach Robinson coached with Liam Cohen for a long time.
29:17They talk on the phone together every week, apparently with Cohen having really brought Baker and Chris Godwin's fantasy production in 2024 to another level.
29:25The immediate take that I want to have is, wow, Chris Godwin to the moon, like perfect cheap dynasty by bounce back candidate.
29:33And I do feel that way. That's everything. Everything I'm about to say after this does not take away from that case I just made for Godwin.
29:42I believe that regardless. But then I get to thinking and it's like, well, a Mecca is right here.
29:49He's going into year two after through his first five games, accumulating the third most fantasy points of any rookie wide receiver
29:56ever through an initial five games or sorry, third on that list behind Puka Nakua and Randy Moss since the 80s.
30:04So one of the best we've ever seen over his first five weeks gets injured, has a hamstring injury in week six.
30:11Baker Mayfield also has more injuries racking up in week six and week seven.
30:16The volume stays about the same for a Puka.
30:19The efficiency goes way down. He goes from way over performing his volume to way underperforming his volume.
30:25But it's all like pretty easily hand waved by the injury angle that I just covered, in my opinion.
30:31So I'm left with, well, this is a player who came a first round pick with a pretty decent college profile to
30:39come out of the gate extremely hot. Cool off because of injuries.
30:43And now am I really just making like a very specific motion based case for his 30 plus year old teammate?
30:50Like what if I right now am just about to buy like the Seahawks version of Cooper Cup last year instead of
30:58touting the Jackson Smith and Jigba that's about to take off the Emeka Igbuka?
31:02So it's more like kind of regardless of where I land on Igbuka, which I can say at the end of this
31:10after you guys talk and give me your thoughts.
31:13It's more like I'm just trying to audit my thoughts here and make sure am I not just focusing on only the old guy in this offense?
31:22Am I being open enough to the upside for that that could similarly apply?
31:27I mean, Igbuka was also very efficient with during snap motion last year, over 2.4 yards per out run on those plays.
31:34So, yeah, I want to just hear you, Jacob, kind of reflect on the Buccaneers passing game, Igbuka versus Chris Godwin, and
31:42any ways that you think Zach Robinson or the case I just laid out could tie in here.
31:48So I'm a little bit, I've been just kind of confused with the Bucs team all year.
31:54Yeah. I think that like first of all, like just every person in the world just thinks Baker Mayfield is better than I do.
32:02Like so that's just the first thing. Like I just think Baker Mayfield is like very average.
32:08Um, and I will say he's like an extremely volatile average.
32:11Like if you look over the course of his career, he's had at least, at least two seasons where he's been like
32:19very clearly played at a top 10 level. Also had some seasons where he's played at like an unplayable level.
32:26Um, and several in between. Um, like I think really fondly of Liam Cohen, I don't view his 2024 season as a,
32:33as a baseline for what to expect. I would say if I was to like put a baseline on who I think
32:41Baker Mayfield is, be, it'd probably be like his 2023 season with Canales.
32:45It's probably like the closest thing that I would come up with as like an average-ish, maybe a slightly better than average-ish
32:53Baker Mayfield season, um, of what I would expect going forward.
32:56So like, to me, when I hear people like throw out the injury excuses for last year, I, I hear those.
33:03Um, but I was already expecting him to probably look a lot worse last year than he did in 2024, simply because
33:11he lost Cohen and he never played that well before.
33:14He was like a 40 touchdown guy in 2024.
33:17And, um, that was very different than who he's been for most of the rest of his career.
33:24So like immediately the ADPs came out this year on the box.
33:28And I'm like, we got Baker at quarterback. We got our offensive coordinator is just coming off of, of calling the 24th best offense in EPA per play.
33:37And like, I understand that their quarterback situation wasn't amazing, but like, this is still a team that had Drake London and Bijan Robinson.
33:45Like, I don't view that as some great accomplishment to, to get that team out to, to being totally mid to below average offense.
33:53Um, and I honestly like probably think a little more highly of Michael Penix than, than most people do, um, at this point in his career.
34:02Um, so like, I don't think very highly of Mayfield and I don't think very highly of Robinson.
34:08I, I will give credit to Robinson that he does a lot of the things that successful offensive coordinators do.
34:15Um, so that's a positive, but like I, I made this comment pre-show.
34:20I think Zach Robinson is the closest thing we have in the NFL to like, if someone made the really dumb decision
34:27of making me offensive coordinator, which is like, I, I know like the things that, that you should do.
34:34So like, I would do them. I would call, I would hit the play action button and hit the motion button, but
34:41like, I don't know what I'm doing. I can't like design plays well.
34:45Like I, I could, I could also like trace what other people do, but like my offense would be the worst on the NFL.
34:54Like I don't have a clue what I'm doing.
34:57Now, Zach Robinson obviously is way better of an offensive coordinator than I am, but like, that's kind of the metaphor of
35:04where I just don't necessarily buy that. Like the fact that he co-ops other people's smart ideas means that he necessarily has the goods himself.
35:13Um, it's a little, it's a little Bobby Sloak-y for me on Zach Robinson.
35:17Um, so I have, I just have kind of, I basically everything about this offense, I just think it's kind of average.
35:25And I'm just kind of confused by how in this ADP landscape, it's like, oh, we need to draft one of their
35:32wide receivers in round three, another one in round seven, and then another one in round 12.
35:38And also all three of their running backs need to be drafted, two of them in the top 100.
35:45I'm like on the bucks, like, really, this is the offense we need to do this.
35:50Like, it's not, it's not the chargers. It's not the, it's not the lions.
35:55Um, so I've been confused by this team all off season.
35:59That being said, if you're, if you, if we assume everything's going to go well and that, that, that Baker and Robinson
36:06are better than I'm giving them credit for. Um, I, I, I think that probably Ibuka gets the first shot because he's
36:14the guy that they have investment in for the long term, right?
36:18He was their first round pick. Uh, he's probably a more talented player than, or at least has an upside of being
36:25a more talented player than Chris Godwin does today.
36:28Like, I think if you ask the box organization, who would you prefer to be your 1200 yard, 12 touchdown breakout candidate?
36:36Like, it's probably the 23 year old Ibuka, not, not the 30 year old Chris Godwin.
36:41Uh, like, I guess I'm just not convinced that he is, that like making Ibuka the wide receiver one by Fiat makes
36:49him a better pick than all of the other wide receivers going around him that I just buy into the talent case for more.
36:57Like, I've really tried to sell myself on him this year because it's a year two player.
37:03I don't, I feel really uncomfortable being underweight on a player like this that I think is pretty good.
37:09But, like, I went back and I read my prospect article on him.
37:13I thought mostly favorably of him. Um, but I thought he projected to probably be a, a fantasy wide receiver two for a long time.
37:22Maybe wide receiver three. Rookie season was like bizarrely sequenced.
37:25Everybody seems to be emphasizing the positives more than the negatives.
37:29But like on the whole, 1.75 yards per outrun.
37:32Um, good. Very good rookie season. And it's not like usually the type of rookie season that warrants like a, we're going
37:40to draft you in round three next year price.
37:43Like that's usually more of like a, a Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison type rookie season of like, congrats.
37:49Like you're a starting NFL wide receiver. Let's see how it goes next year.
37:54Um, and like, I look at him for instance in the redraft market and it's like, well, would I rather have a Mecca Buka or Jalen Waddle?
38:03And it's like, well, I know Jalen Waddle is a wide receiver one, like as a talent and they're going to make him that in roles.
38:12Can I just pick him? Like, why do I have to be, why do I have to guess who the wide receiver
38:19one is and make this projection for Ibuka? What upside am I getting on top of this?
38:25So I've really struggled with him, but I do think he probably has the best shot.
38:30I think Godwin's the guy I've drafted more. And it's not really because I think he's going to be the wide receiver one.
38:38I just think he has some equity of doing it and the opportunity cost with Godwin is so much lower that like,
38:46especially in Dinahs, you can acquire him for a bag of chips.
38:50And like, if the offense is awesome and Ibuka is awesome, there's still a lot left over for Godwin to contribute as
38:57a weekly wide receiver three and flex player. And if the market is wrong and Ibuka is just not up to it,
39:05like maybe Godwin is the wide receiver one. And then he's like one of the cheapest possible points buys you can get in Dynasty.
39:13He's not even that old. So I've been playing it more through Godwin on price, not as much because I'm like convinced
39:20that Zach Robinson is going to design the whole thing around Godwin.
39:24I think he'd probably prefer to design it around Ibuka if Ibuka is up to it.
39:30So I'm really torn on Ibuka. I'm pretty into Godwin.
39:33Yeah, I'm still very torn on him as well.
39:36I think where I most resonate with you is that I don't really, especially in Dynasty, I don't really understand why Ibuka
39:44carries like this massive price premium compared to a McConkie or a Burden or like any of these other guys.
39:51Like he's been pretty consistently just the most expensive of that group.
39:55And I don't see like a real reason why.
39:58So, yeah, that's it's. And yeah, like you're saying, it's not to say that he can't break out all over the place
40:05this year and take like a really big step forward.
40:09But it is just like I just feel like there's not as much juice left to squeeze at the ADP.
40:15Do you guys feel like the way he's discussed now as a prospect, like in retrospect, is just very different than the
40:23way he was discussed as a prospect at the time?
40:26Like because I've seen so many people be like, like make do the next JSN thing with him.
40:32And a lot of it is like really good prospect.
40:36I'm like, yeah, they were drafted similar in the NFL draft.
40:40But like if you remember the way JSN was discussed by the Dynasty community when he came up, it was like, yeah, this guy is unreal.
40:48He was the clear wide receiver one in his class for Dynasty.
40:52People were valuing him a ton immediately. He had this beautiful analytical profile.
40:57Like I felt like last year Ibuka was talked about like favorably, but never like some blue chip wide receiver one can't miss.
41:05Like the way he's talked about now, I feel like it's like people are acting like him and McMillan were like, you know, 1A, 1B coming out.
41:14And that was just never how he was perceived at the time.
41:18And then I felt like he got all of this positive buzz in training camp.
41:23He started Red Hot in September. And I feel like people, I don't know, there's like a primacy effect to that.
41:30It's just weird. I just am curious where the like evaluation of his talent, I feel like, changed in a way that's not necessarily reflected in the numbers.
41:40Because I don't want it to come off like I think he sucks.
41:44I just, I feel like I've been pretty consistent in how I view him.
41:49And I feel like the market has like been like, nope, this guy is like tier one.
41:55Like goals, I'm like, since when? Like maybe in the future.
41:58I think this has something to do with a little bit for confirmation bias, right?
42:04He comes out, he plays really well. He shows out.
42:07He can be a one. And Evans comes back, kind of change anything.
42:11Plus he gets hurt. That kind of changes everything.
42:14But seeing him produce, many people go, oh, I was right about him being good as a prospect.
42:21And that overshadows any of the negative of it.
42:24It's just going back and altering the finality, I guess, of his prospect profile because now we've seen it.
42:30So I think that's a lot of that where it comes from.
42:34And now Mike Evans is gone. So now having Mike Evans gone is just like, oh, now they really believe in it.
42:42So now we're just adding on top of all the positive, which just makes you completely forget any of the separation stuff, any of the per route.
42:51Like any of that is out the window because a lot of good in the profile.
42:56Then he showed out. Now they believe in him.
42:59You can just stack those things up and tell yourself.
43:03And then when you compare that to the quality of wide receiver prospect this year with him, it's like, oh, he's an Ohio statewide receiver.
43:11Again, I've said this forever. JSN has done immeasurable damage to how we view wide receivers in year two and year three.
43:19And now everyone's compared to the next JSN. Everyone's the next JSN.
43:23You're the next JSN. I, at 37, could one day develop to be the next JSN with no knees anymore.
43:30You're absolutely correct. Right. But that's how these guys are viewed.
43:33And I feel like that's where it is way more upside, upside, upside.
43:38This can't go wrong. Even if he fails in year two, don't worry.
43:42JSN broke out in year three. So I feel like we're just kind of changing based on confirmation.
43:48Of the positives from the profile. And he also has a good mix of, like, to quote from my slapses, like, he
43:56has a good mix of both boomer and slappy tendencies where it's like everybody likes to bet on the sexy young guy and he's a year two player.
44:05But, like, he's also a year two player who, like, has a lot of, like, the things that boomers like going for him where he is.
44:14He's the wide receiver one, you know. And he plays with Baker, who is a quarterback that, I mean, is objectively in
44:22the top half of what you'd want for fantasy.
44:25But I think people think he's, like, a really good quarterback for fantasy.
44:29So I think it's, like, people, it's easy for people to be, like, good offense, good quarterback, wide receiver one.
44:36And it's, like, a very comfortable year two bet to make, I guess.
44:40Like, the last thing I'll just say, because I know we're way too long.
44:45I want it to be, I want to be clear, like, if anyone listens to this, that it's not as though I'm saying he's, like, bad.
44:54I don't think he's bad and I've never thought he was bad.
44:58It's just, like, he's going at wide receiver 11 right now.
45:02Like, his dynasty value is, like, interchangeable with Tedderall McMillan's.
45:05And, like, McMillan was a way better prospect than him.
45:09Like, by a substantial margin. And everyone thought so at the time, for the most part.
45:14And had a much more impressive rookie season than he did.
45:18And it's, like, these guys should not be interchangeably valued.
45:21Like, we should have to see a lot of what we're assuming is going to happen with Igbuka before these two are valued at the same level.
45:30He's going ahead of both Carnell Tate and Jordan Tyson, who were top 10 picks in this year's draft that I think
45:38were also better prospects than he was. Tyson especially.
45:41And he's going multiple rounds behind. And he's going ahead of guys like Nico Collins, Chris Alave, Garrett Wilson.
45:47Like, these are all guys. Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers, like, a series of, like, you know, older.
45:53So, I guess the value upside is lower. But, like, undisputable, you know, top 15, top 12 wide receiver talents in the NFL.
46:01So, it's not like I'm saying, oh, this guy's a bust.
46:05Like, I think he will probably be a top 24 wide receiver this year.
46:09And I think he's going to have a very long, successful NFL career.
46:14My issue with him is purely just, like, I just don't think that his price right now matches what he's shown so far as a talent.
46:23And he obviously will have an opportunity to change that.
46:26It's a desperation of needing the young wide receivers to hit at this point.
46:31I think there's serious potential for nesting doll tag in his future.
46:35Yeah. Yeah. The only thing I wanted to add to the excellent conversation that you guys just had is I really do
46:42think that it was the re-evaluation of his profile came once we had to actually look at these 2026 rookie wide receivers.
46:50It was, like, very easy to make the comparison of, oh, wow, Emeka Igbuka was actually more efficient and more productive at Ohio State than Carnell Tate was.
46:59Like, that just, like, jumped off the spreadsheets to me personally when I was doing my prospect work.
47:06So, I do wonder if that is just part of it, too.
47:10But, yeah, largely agree with a lot of the points you guys just made.
47:14Let's move it over. Sure. Jacob mentioned Bobby Sloick in his last answer.
47:19Let's talk about Bobby Sloick. We've got Devon Achan that we do have due, unfortunately, because I am lower on Devon Achan
47:26in Dynasty than I feel comfortable than I like to be.
47:30I have people like Scott Barrett telling me that I'm crazy for even worrying and that Achan is just going to he'll just be fine.
47:39Like, he's an amazing receiver. He'll just put up points.
47:42It doesn't matter. But I think Bobby Sloick is uniquely bad as a play caller for Achan where the case is, yeah,
47:49maybe the Dolphins will be bad, but he'll catch a ton of passes and a ton of checkdowns.
47:56I don't know that that's the case looking at Sloick's history.
47:59So the biggest thing that jumps out is that Bobby Sloick seems to just want to get his offenses into third and long.
48:07And I don't mean that literally, but he coaches as if that's the goal.
48:12I just looking at in his two years in Houston, the offense had to drop back on third and long 224 times.
48:19That's the third most of any team over that span.
48:23You don't want to do that. This is one of the least efficient plays in football, a third and long drop back.
48:30But the reason they got there so much is because Sloick would just run at an incredibly high rate on second and long.
48:38And of course, the Texans had not that great of a run game to even come close to getting away with that.
48:46So really, just like over half the time, Bobby just kind of surrenders and says, whatever, we'll get into third and manageable.
48:53But really, it's like third and six or third and seven where you obviously have to drop back and the defense knows it and they can react accordingly.
49:03Right. They can send as many blitzers as they want to.
49:06And I think that is a large part of why CJ Stroud had such awful like pressure to sack issues for a lot of his early career.
49:15Just being in those situations. So long rant, but you transpose that onto a Malik Willis offense where Malik Willis, yes, can
49:23theoretically kind of play hero on third and long.
49:26He can scramble around. He can move the chain some of the time in those situations.
49:31But that's like not good for Devon A. Chan's passing volume.
49:35Right. Willis has scrambled on 30 percent of his third and longs over the past three seasons.
49:41That's about double his scramble rate on all drop packs.
49:44We're talking about Malik Willis. So these are small samples, but that also holds true generally across the NFL.
49:51QBs have a bit higher of a scramble rate on third and long.
49:55We already with Willis, when you just consider the scrambles, he has one of the lowest drop back conversion rates.
50:02A lot of his drop backs turn into sacks.
50:05They turn into scrambles. They turn into throwaways. And he has averaged, yeah, like right around 20, 22 drop backs per start in his career.
50:14So low volume passing offense on top of probably a lot of the passes will be out of third and long when
50:21Willis is going to be tempted to scramble and run for his life.
50:25That just equates to way fewer targets for Devon A.
50:29Chan. Like he's going to have to be up above a 25 percent target share potentially to even get to like four
50:36or five targets per game, which is basically required on this offense for him to be an RB1.
50:42So I just can't draft Devon A. Chan as like a top four or a top five dynasty running back.
50:49It doesn't make sense to me. He's unfortunately tied to this Miami team now with his extension for as long as they allow this to continue.
50:58You hope it's not past 2026 if it is indeed a total disaster, but it wouldn't be that crazy for Sloic or Willis to get a second season.
51:08And for this to kind of extend another year into 2027, we're just eating up more and more of Devon A.
51:15Chan's prime as this conversation goes on. So I don't know.
51:19I have moved him down to I believe he's my dynasty RB6.
51:23I've had him in the six to eight range throughout this offseason, kind of going back and forth as I argue with myself on this.
51:31But yeah, I'm below consensus. We talked earlier about how he's one of the worst picks in round two of startups.
51:38So yeah, I guess I just want to throw it over to you guys.
51:43Anything you have to add on the Bobby Sloic and Devon A.
51:47Chan marriage and what it means for his dynasty value?
51:51Bobby Sloic is unbearable. Unbearable. I can't believe that we have to watch this guy again.
51:56Just listening to your rant brought me back. I went and I was searching up my old tweets about PFF Bobby from back in the day.
52:05It just brought me back to watching that year two Stroud team where basically all I did every Sunday was just log
52:12in to twitter.com and just fire off hate tweets about Bobby Sloic.
52:16Running it on second and ten every single time.
52:19And yeah, he's the worst. I apologize to Zach Robinson for denigrating him by comparing him to Bobby Sloic because no one does it like PFF Bobby.
52:29But yeah, there's a cost at which I'm willing to just be like, look, Devon A.
52:34Chan is awesome at football and I'll deal with it even if I think everything around him is a disaster.
52:41I'm basically there in redraft. He's fallen from being a late first to now being a mid second and I'm fine paying that, I think.
52:49He's not there yet in Dynasty. Probably just a less reactive market.
52:53But I think he might be there silently because I tried to shop A.
52:58Chan a few times and a lot of people were not very interested.
53:03And I've had other people reach out that were clearly trying to shop A.
53:07Chan. And, you know, they were trying to get like the iron price and I wasn't wanting to pay it.
53:14But I do think that maybe that that market lag catches up faster than we think or can be like realized in aggregated data.
53:22If you get out there in the real world and you talk to the human beings.
53:28So I that's that's where. Yeah, I mean, everything that you said, I 100 percent agree with.
53:34I don't really have anything to add like Bobby Slug is going to run when he shouldn't.
53:39He's going to run when he should. He's going to run when he should or shouldn't.
53:45And then he's going to and then he's going to be like, oh, man, like it's just a constant feedback loop of
53:52banging your head into the wall because he runs the ball every single time on first down and second down.
53:59And then sure enough, they don't complete a pass on third down because it's third and nine.
54:05And then he goes, oh, my God, I can't trust my pass game.
54:09I better run it again on first and second down.
54:13And it's like if you would just call a pass play when they think you're running one time, maybe you'd have a
54:20little bit more success in your passing game. So, yeah, I I just keep looking at this team and I think it's
54:28going to look really similar to the Jets last year where it's like the rate stats for A.
54:34Chan might look good. And like if you if I was to do projections, right, like, you know, you whatever the median
54:41play number is in the NFL, it's usually about 62.
54:45Like you can really only project teams for between like 59 and 65 plays per game if you're trying to like have reasonable regression baked in.
54:53And I expect A. Chan's like target share in neutral ish game scripts to look so good that he probably looks pretty decent on a projection.
55:02I just think what you can't bake into a projection is like the amount of games that I foresee in which the Dolphins are just completely uncompetitive.
55:12Because there were games like this with Brees Hall last year where you're like, oh, like he has a 23 percent target
55:19share and he's like running pretty effectively because they have, you know, fields drawing drawing guys.
55:24And it's like if you just watch the Jets drives, it's like, oh, like Brees seems pretty involved.
55:31But like every successful drive this team has is going to take a million years because they're going to play so slow
55:38and they're going to run so much that the clock is going to be taking 45 seconds for every play.
55:45And so they're going to have like a 13 play field goal drive that takes nine minutes off the clock.
55:52And A. Chan looks good the whole time. He gets 4.1 points.
55:56Their defense stinks. So they're not getting the ball back until it's 12 minutes left in the second quarter.
56:02They're going to go three and out. They're not going to see the ball again until it's five minutes left in the second quarter.
56:10And then all of a sudden in the middle of the third quarter, you're like, A.
56:16Chan's had a pretty nice game today, hasn't he?
56:19Well, he has seven fantasy points and now they're down by 21.
56:23And they just went three and out and they pulled him.
56:27And it's like, yeah, like you can't really like bake that into a median projection, but there's just going to be so
56:34many games like that where it's like the Dolphins ran 44 plays today.
56:39And 11 of them were in garbage time. So like A.
56:42Chan touched the ball on 48% of their offensive snaps.
56:46That was 11 carries, four targets and no touchdowns.
56:49Better luck next week. Like, because that's what it was with Hall last year.
56:54And A. Chan's better than him, better pass catcher.
56:57But like, I think you're just going to have similar, like unprojectable levels of putridity.
57:02He's going to have to be so special. He transcends all of Sloick's missteps, I guess.
57:07And he will. My question is some games he's just going to take one 75 yards to the house and it's going to be fine.
57:16Yeah. And then he's benched. Every game. Then he's benched because Sloick says he scored too quick and they didn't run enough time off the clock.
57:24Like, that's the level of hilarity we're probably going to run into.
57:29Also, like, Sloick's going to love Olly Gordon. Like, I just know he's going to love Olly Gordon.
57:35That's another, like, angle that I didn't mention. But A.
57:38Chan over his career has kind of, this was just like a thing that I constantly remember, like, tracking every single week.
57:46Is the goal line touches and the goal line roll, right?
57:49Like, he's kind of had to fend off Olly Gordon and Raheem Mostert and all these, like, random different guys at different points over the past couple years.
57:59Like, to get, like, a decent goal line share.
58:02And he's still not even close to the top of the, like, the top running backs at the goal line in terms of opportunity share, right?
58:11You add just, like, 40% of the carries to Malik Willis inside the 10-yard line off the top of that.
58:18Like, I, yeah, it just makes me extremely nervous.
58:21I do think for the reasons that you laid out, Jacob, maybe A.
58:25Chan is, like, a way better best ball pick than he is a managed pick.
58:30Just because, like, yeah, you're going to get the spike weeks that if he averages out to being the RB9 or something on a per-game basis.
58:39Right. And you get the spike weeks where he takes one 75 yards to the house and you don't have to worry
58:46about the six-point stinkers when the Dolphins are uncompetitive.
58:50That might be better as opposed to the feeling you're going to have when you're putting him in your managed lineup every
58:57single week and he's disappointing you time after time.
59:00Yeah. Especially on drafters, like, where it's not a sprint at the end.
59:04Because that's the other thing that I fear with A.
59:08Chan. And it's like, what if they're 2-14 and he's not, like, playing?
59:12Or it's like, well, we're nominally starting him, but we want to see what we have in Ollie Gordon in the second half.
59:20Because this season is toast and we're trying to get the number one pick.
59:25And so we're not going to play A. Chan, you know, as much as we would if we were trying to win.
59:32And, like, just the systemic risk on this team is huge.
59:36And I think that the huge cost in Dynasty is tough to pay.
59:41Yep. All right. That's enough depressing talk on Devon H.
59:44And let's move on to another kind of negative take I have.
59:48But maybe I'll get some pushback on this one.
59:51Jackson Dart and Matt Nagy as the play caller for the Giants just has me really nervous about Dart.
59:58In redraft, it's kind of whatever. I don't care that much about quarterback risk in redraft.
60:03But, yeah, in Dynasty Startups, where he's an early third in ADP, going ahead of guys like Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix, Brock
60:10Purdy, like really productive, real-life NFL quarterbacks that are going to continue to be starters in the league and have, like, no job security concerns, really.
60:19I get a little bit worried about what this Giants season is going to look like and what's going to happen at
60:27the end of it if Dart is not continually super productive.
60:31So just for the people unaware, Matt Nagy is my pick for the worst play caller in the NFL right now that's going to be employed for 2026.
60:40The last two times he got to call plays, he gave up those duties within, like, six weeks.
60:46The offense got better both times that he did that.
60:50He ruined Patrick Mahomes. Even without Tyree Kill, Mahomes was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL on a dropback basis in 2022.
60:58The moment that Nagy was the OC again in 2023 on, he's been, like, 20th in adjusted net yards for attempt.
61:05And probably most concerningly for Jackson Dart and his fantasy prospects specifically, neither Mitch Trubisky nor Justin Fields across four seasons under
61:13Nagy ever had more than three rushing touchdowns, which is pretty crazy for Justin Fields especially.
61:18Had a career-low 7% carry share inside the five under Nagy in 2021.
61:23David Montgomery just got the ball every time at the goal line that year.
61:27Every other season of his career, Fields... That season, like, do you remember the quotes?
61:32I'm sorry, I'm interrupting you. Like, I just... Yeah, go for it.
61:37...ticks me back to that Justin Fields season. Which was, like, one of the most insane things I can ever recall, where it's like...
61:45It was an all-time do-you-know-who-you-drafted situation where, like, every week it was like, well, we want him to, like, master the West Coast offense.
61:53It was like, are you fucking high? Like, what are we doing here?
61:57Like, you drafted Justin Fields and you're, like, gonna make him run, like, Hank, and you're calling zero designed rushes?
62:04It was, like... It was one of the most baffling seasons I've ever watched of play calling.
62:10And, like, the pressers, like, they were legitimately, like, like, I'm seeing a lot of Andy Dalton in Justin Fields.
62:17It's like, what are we doing here? I mean, that probably ruined his career.
62:21I, like, he's... We're never saving Justin Fields now, but I, like, kind of still think if he didn't get stuck with
62:29Matt Nagy that rookie year who just tried to, like, shove him into the most, like, square peg round hole I've ever seen.
62:37Like, I think his career could have gone, like, fundamentally pretty differently.
62:41That reflects on what you were saying about Patrick Mahomes, too, who's...
62:45Came in and was known for being this electric all-time, possibly greatest toolsy quarterback of all time.
62:51He's so creative, the no look, flip it over the shoulder, off the ground, Madden throw.
62:56And now he's just this redundant checkdown artist that doesn't create...
63:00Now he just stands up off to Kareem Hunt.
63:03I think that perfectly describes what Ryan was talking about.
63:06Yeah, no, I appreciate you cutting in there because that was, like, color commentary that this absolutely needed.
63:12So I'm glad we got that. You are so right.
63:16I had, like, forgotten my visceral experience of that season, but that just brought it rushing back.
63:22Yeah, that's what it was. That's Matt Nagy. That's how he used Justin Fields.
63:26Because Fields, yeah, that year, 7% of the carries inside the 5-yard line for the team.
63:32Every other year of his career, he was over 40%, like Justin Fields obviously should be.
63:37I don't know. What is going to... Why are we expecting this to be better for Jackson Darragh?
63:43And even if... Yes, I understand, like, Harbaugh is going to have some more control.
63:48Maybe Nagy's a short leash. But, like, if we're having to make the argument of, like, okay, maybe he won't.
63:55But, like... They got a lot of OCs on that staff.
63:59It might be shorter than you think. Yeah, they do.
64:02They got Greg Roman. They have, like, 17 different candidates to be interim OC.
64:07I was just going to say, don't worry. He's on such a short leash just so he can get Greg Roman back in calling plays.
64:16Yes. Get ready, because in two minutes I'm about to make the whole pro-Greg Roman case.
64:21Oh. I haven't ready. Let's make the pro-Greg Roman case over the pro-Brian Callahan case, who is the other potential interim OC that's on this coaching staff.
64:30Yeah, it's like, if we have to... If we're literally talking about who's the interim OC going to be, like, should Jackson
64:38Dart really have a round three startup ADP? Is that really what we want to do on this offense?
64:44It's completely devoid of weapons, completely devoid of any players other than Malik Neighbors that can make his life easier, who is
64:52very likely going to start the season on Pup.
64:55Well, that's fine. Because now you'll be fired before Neighbors comes back.
64:59Yes. But even if that's the case, if the Giants are 1-7 and completely hopeless, when Neighbors is, like, healthy enough to
65:06come back, is Malik Neighbors actually coming back? Or is he not just going to pull a Jamar chase and say, I'm
65:14going to sit the rest of this season out.
65:17I don't want to injure myself again. I'll be back in 2027.
65:21If the Giants season goes poorly enough, I think that's a world we could live in.
65:26So, yeah, I don't know. It's terrifying to me to hold a round three startup ADP Jackson Dart right now.
65:33I have no real angle on this because I'm, like, conflicted in many respects.
65:38I think that probably what Ryan is saying is the right analytical take, which is that the situation is pretty dire.
65:45The downside risk is pretty extreme. And the price is really high.
65:49So it's probably you're better off selling than buying.
65:52I think, like, if you're searching for optimism in this coaching staff, like, there's none with Matt Nagy.
65:58He's terrible. Like, I've always, probably the biggest thing I've respected about Jim Harbaugh over the course of his 10 years I
66:06had coaches, I feel like he's always hired pretty well.
66:09Like, I feel like he's made a lot of, like, interesting hiring choices, and he's cut bait at the right time, and
66:17he's, like, felt like he's usually had his finger on the pulse.
66:21Like, even the ones that didn't work out, I always thought were interesting and, like, thoughtful.
66:26Like, I thought that Trestman, who is a disaster as an OC, but I thought that was, like, an interesting move.
66:33I thought that he, coming off of his hitting with the Bears, I thought he did some cool things.
66:40Brought a lot from the CFL. Clearly didn't have the makeup to be a head coach.
66:45I was like, that makes sense. Didn't work out.
66:48He moved on quick. He, at times, leaned into, like, Gary Kubiak and getting some of the Shanahan stuff.
66:55When they went and got Lamar Jackson, like, I know Tom eventually grew to hate Greg Roman, but, like, the offense that
67:02Greg Roman put in early on in Lamar Jackson's career was, like, genuinely innovative, and I think he was the perfect coach for that time.
67:11And when he became not the right coach, they eventually moved on, and they got Todd Malkin, who I thought was a home run hire.
67:19And similarly on defense, like, obviously the track record is not perfect, but, like, Mike McDonald was a John Harbaugh guy, and
67:27they've had, I think, interesting hires on that side of the ball.
67:31So I'm usually a pretty pro-Harbaugh dude, and I was just floored that Matt Nagy was the ultimate choice.
67:37Like, how you can take this guy of all of the options was astonishing to me.
67:43If I have any room for optimism, it's that, like, I feel like that they've built such a, not overqualified in terms
67:50of skill, but, like, overqualified in terms of experience level, like, overall offensive staff, that I'm kind of viewing this to be,
67:58like, an offensive coordinator by committee situation. They have Callahan, as we mentioned, as the pass game coordinator, Roman's the run game coordinator.
68:06These are three former OCs, two former head coaches.
68:09And I view it as, like, the run game design, and a lot of the RPO and option stuff, which is what,
68:16hopefully, is what we want for Jackson Dart. That's going to be Roman's domain.
68:21He's going to design all that. And then Callahan's going to design most of the passing game.
68:27And I think Nagy's just going to be, like, the very literal play caller.
68:31And, like, if that's what happens, I'm okay with it.
68:35Like, I think Callahan was, like, a totally fine offensive assistant on the Bengals.
68:40Like, by all accounts, he was, like, a pretty helpful member of that staff.
68:44Their passing game was wildly successful, I mean, with and without him.
68:48But I don't think he did anything offensive in that capacity.
68:52I think his issue as a head coach is, like, he is, like, not a people person, and he was, like, in
69:00way over his head as, like, a leader. But, like, as a member of an offensive staff, I think he's fine.
69:07People hate Greg Roman. I still think he's one of the best run game designers in the NFL.
69:13As, like, a run game coordinator, I have no problem with that hire.
69:17I think all 32 NFL teams should be interested in hiring Greg Roman as a run game coordinator.
69:23So, like, the Nagy thing is awful. I just think he's set up in a position that maybe his associates do most of the heavy lifting for him.
69:33And then the thing with Jackson Dart that's weird is, like, the big NFL like, big NFL media has just always been so out on this guy.
69:42And I think that they're wrong. Like, I like this guy as a prospect.
69:47I still like this guy. I thought he was really impressive as a rookie.
69:52And I really want to bet against, like, all of these Jackson Dart haters.
69:56It just seems that none of them play Dynasty because the Dynasty market doesn't reflect any of the Jackson Dart pessimism that
70:04you constantly see out there in the world to the point that, like, I almost want to shade in some of that
70:11pessimism that I don't even believe because it's, like, a little scary that if you, like, leave the Dynasty bubble and you
70:19listen to, like, the athletic football show, you know, like, those types of sources for content, like, they are not sold on
70:26a Jackson Dart being the answer after this year.
70:29They view him, you know, more precariously than, like, a Cam Ward, which I think is weird.
70:35But, like, if that's how he's viewed by most football people, that's probably how he's viewed by John Harbaugh.
70:42And so, like, it does make me very, very nervous to invest in him.
70:46I'm just, I'm so torn because I really believe in him and I want to bet on him.
70:53The price makes it really tough. Man. Greg Roman is really good early on.
70:57Just expect nothing to change. And you're right. He's, like, I did love Greg Roman and what he did in 2019, even in the end of 2018.
71:07He's the reason they got where they got in 2018.
71:10And he's part of the big reason why 2019 happened.
71:13Unfortunately, nothing changed in 20 and 21 and nothing does change with him.
71:18He's the type of coordinator that will practice one special run at practice every day all week, plan nothing else.
71:25But man, when that one play runs and they never run it again, it's gonna look awesome.
71:30All this tells me is by Scadabo. If this is gonna just be the Kareem Hunt at the five yard line, just, I'll take that.
71:39But I think there's reason to have pessimism with Jackson Dart beyond just even his ability to stay healthy in his running style.
71:47That matters. The biggest reason I'm pessimistic is just the neighbor's stuff.
71:51Like, if he's missing time and if he comes back and he's not a superstar, this situation is horrible.
71:57Like, I mean, Dart did a great job of mitigating it last year, I think, with better coaching.
72:03But, like, there's a range of outcomes where they either have potentially, like, it's possible the Giants by the end of the
72:11year we could say they have the best wide receiver in the entire NFL or they could have the worst wide receiver
72:18room in the entire NFL if Neighbors is playing at half health because no one else on this team is doing anything.
72:26Yeah. Fully agree. I, the neighbors stuff is also kind of where I stop.
72:31I hear you on Scadaboo as well, Tom. I think maybe in Dynasty I'm a little more perceptive to that case.
72:38But also, it's just like, do I really want the running back on this offense that I am projecting to be, like,
72:45bottom two in the league maybe next to the Dolphins?
72:49So, yeah, I don't know. I just have a really hard time with all of them with everything going on here.
72:56But that's all I got. So, yeah, unless you got anything else for us here, Tom, you can take us out of
73:03here or wrap a bow on this any way you'd like to.
73:07If you liked what you saw today, please like and subscribe to the channel.
73:12It helps us in more ways than you can know.
73:15And leave a comment. An hour and ten plus may seem like a long time to really focus in on five players,
73:23but we go in depth in ways that most channels just don't when they're telling you to make better informed decisions.
73:30So, let us know if you like this kind of content, what we missed, what you didn't, were we too harsh on some of these play callers?
73:39I don't know. Well, link for Ryan's article is going to be in the description.
73:44Make sure you're subscribed to catch that. You're not going to want to miss it.
73:49So many great things. And if you're watching this and didn't watch the live, we went live yesterday.
73:56Go back and catch that. See if either one of these guys can take down five for five and of course get
74:03all of the in-depth analysis that we provide on the other show that does go live.
74:08Until then, until next week anyway, remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose and that your best days are always been tilting.
74:17We'll see you guys next time.
