Fantasy Football Week 4 Key Questions: Breakouts, Bounce-Backs & Must-Start Matchups (Ep. 2236)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 10 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 2, 2026
Published
Fri, October 2, 2026
31
Player insights
27
Players mentioned
Topics
Jalen HurtsBraelon AllenJameson WilliamsBrock BowersBryce YoungChris BellChris OlaveDarnell WashingtonDarren WallerDeshaun WatsonDK MetcalfDrake LondonDrake MayeEmanuel Wilson
Player analysis
Player insights
Braelon Allen
PositiveUsage20:32
The source projects Braylon Allen for 15-18 opportunities against a Bears defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against the run and allows 4.8 yards per carry. He is expected to see a 65-70% snap rate, with the source noting he is a strong volume play despite being RB21 in consensus rankings.
Insight pageNegativeUsage32:36
With Breece Hall ruled out, Braylon Allen is a volume-based RB2 play for Week 4, though he lacks explosive efficiency and often avoids contact despite his size.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
NegativeProjection54:55
Brock Bowers remains a must-start despite a tough matchup against the Chiefs' defense, which is expected to focus on limiting him and Ashton Gentey.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeValue62:09
The source expresses concern regarding Bryce Young's outlook due to offensive line struggles, specifically the absence of guard Damian Lewis (elbow) and the likely absence of rookie right tackle Monroe Freeling (concussion). Consequently, the analysts are ranking him lower than consensus, with some moving him to QB12 and noting that his status could drop further if Jalen Coker is ruled out.
Insight pageChris Bell
PositiveSleeper51:48
Chris Bell is preferred over Malik Washington as a flex play. Bell saw a 64% route share and 19% target share last week, and if his knee health holds, he could see increased usage against a Vikings defense that struggles against perimeter receivers.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveMatchup68:22
Chris Olave is a high-priority start, ranked as the WR4 by the source. He leads the NFL in targets (36) and faces a Falcons defense that acts as an extreme pass funnel, allowing a league-high 604 receiving yards to wide receivers and missing their top cover man, A.J. Terrell.
Insight pageDarnell Washington
PositiveSleeper9:01
Darnell Washington is emerging as a potential touchdown-or-bust streamer due to his significant red zone involvement.
Insight pageDarren Waller
PositiveUsage65:36
The source strongly recommends betting the over on Darren Waller's receptions (2.5) and receiving yards (26.5), citing Detroit's defensive struggles against tight ends, including allowing touchdowns to six different players at the position and ranking poorly in yards per target allowed to tight ends.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
PositiveProjection0:32
Deshaun Watson is playing passably and in the vicinity of a league-average quarterback, which is a significant improvement for the Browns' offense.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
PositiveProjection7:10
Despite recent criticism, DK Metcalf remains a high-quality player who should be considered a fantasy starter in most weeks.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveProjection68:22
Drake London is ranked as the WR5/WR6 by the source. He has shown significant production when paired with Michael Penix Jr., recording 91 catches, 1,356 yards, and eight touchdowns over 13 career games played with him.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeProjection25:13
Despite a poor start to the season, Drake Maye remains a high-upside quarterback who is a strong buy-low candidate in dynasty formats, with a favorable matchup against a Bills defense missing Christian Benford.
Insight pageEmanuel Wilson
PositiveSleeper57:42
Emmanuel Wilson is a viable start if Janarian Price is inactive, as he has shown high-volume potential and goal-line usage.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveBreakout28:54
George Pickens is expected to have a breakout game against the Texans because Houston plays single-high coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL (67%). Pickens has historically dominated single-high looks with a 30% target-per-route-run rate and 3.56 yards per route run.
Insight pageIsaiah Davis
NegativeRole21:36
Isaiah Davis is expected to see his first offensive snaps of the season to provide relief for Braylon Allen, though his role remains uncertain as he has exclusively played special teams thus far.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeBust56:34
Janarian Price is considered a poor start due to a three-way backfield split, recent fumbles, and a chest injury. He is ranked RB31 and is in danger of losing playing time.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeProjection38:09
The source expresses concern regarding the Eagles' offense, citing a transition to a new playbook and poor performance from an offensive line that ranks 24th in adjusted line yards and 26th in adjusted sack rate.
Insight pageNegativeProjection41:29
The source expresses concern regarding Jalen Hurts' outlook, not due to his individual talent, but because the pillars of the Eagles' organization—the offensive line and the defense—are underperforming expectations.
Insight pageNegativeValue64:50
The source ranks Bryce Young ahead of Jalen Hurts, noting that Hurts' rushing production has been underwhelming and expressing concern that he does not look comfortable playing under center as much as he has been recently.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveProjection61:00
The source expects a big bounce-back game for Jameson Williams, citing his strong performance against single-high coverage last year, where he recorded a 22% target per route run rate and 2.31 yards per route run. Despite his low half-point PPR ranking (WR55), he remains a top-20 player in expected fantasy points.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout63:55
Jameson Williams is a strong bounce-back candidate against the Panthers, who are missing key cornerbacks. Williams historically performs well against single-high coverage, which the Panthers run at a high rate.
Insight pageJaylen Wright
NegativeDepth Chart49:07
Jalen Wright is expected to potentially start or split work with Ollie Gordon this week, as he has returned to full practice following a foot injury and stinger.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveRole33:51
Jeremiah Love is established as the clear bell-cow back for the Cardinals. Despite some long-term concerns about the team's offense and potential quarterback changes, he is a strong start against a Giants run defense that allows the 7th highest explosive run rate.
Insight pageMalik Washington
NegativeUsage50:50
Malik Washington is viewed as a high-end WR4 or low-end WR3 in PPR formats, potentially benefiting from hot-route targets against a blitz-heavy Vikings defense.
Insight pageMarcus Mariota
PositiveProjection10:30
Marcus Mariota is a fantastic streaming option for Week 4, with potential to finish as a top-12 quarterback against a poor Colts defense.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
NegativeRole8:33
Michael Pittman Jr. is struggling to be part of the offense, potentially due to a foot injury or coverage schemes that favor other receivers, making him close to droppable.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveInjury30:13
Nico Collins is expected to play (81% chance per FantasyPros tool), which is viewed as a massive boost for the Texans' ability to keep pace with the Cowboys in a high-scoring game.
Insight pageOllie Gordon
NegativeBust47:50
The source warns of a potential 'rug pull' with Ollie Gordon, ranking him RB36 and preferring to stay below consensus. Gordon has been inefficient (1.84 yards after contact, 8% missed tackle rate) and has consistently been behind Jalen Wright on the depth chart.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout25:56
Parker Washington is a prime breakout candidate against the Bengals, who struggle against slot receivers (7th most yards per target allowed). The source notes slot corner Jalen Davis has been poor, and expects Washington to reach 100 yards with multiple scores.
Insight pageRoman Wilson
PositiveUsage6:56
Roman Wilson has recorded 60+ yards and a touchdown in each of his last two games, while maintaining a consistent workload of six targets per game.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection24:17
The source predicts a breakout performance for Trevor Lawrence against the Bengals, projecting 35+ pass attempts, 300+ yards, and 3 TDs, noting that offensive coordinator Liam Cohen will allow him to be more aggressive.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hello, everybody.
0:03Welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined this Friday morning by Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown.
0:09We are talking some Week 4 Key Questions. And Fitz, the Cleveland Browns are in first place in the AFC North.
0:16No team in the NFL has more wins than them.
0:19I want to quickly talk about that game last night.
0:22I didn't actually get to watch it. I was out of the house last night, but obviously I was following along.
0:28And the Browns are 3-1 on a three-game winning streak here, Fitz.
0:32And Todd Munkin, like Coach of the Year, Deshaun Watson, he's certainly not going to win something like Comeback Player of the
0:39Year, but it's working better than I expected it to.
0:42If I had a friend from another country who was starting to get into football and wanted to adopt an NFL team, I might recommend the Cleveland Browns.
0:51Like, as a team that, like, as a team that, look, get in on the ground floor of a team that has
0:57been a, I won't say historic failure, because obviously, like in the 50s, and 60s, the Browns had some awesome teams, even in the 70s and 80s.
1:06But, like, things are really pointing in the right direction for this team.
1:10A lot of exciting talent on defense. They're young pass catchers.
1:13Jeez, Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion, Harold Fannin, incredible. Quinchon Judkins, not bad.
1:17I'd love to see what he could do once this line gets going.
1:21And all you have to do is get the quarterback thing right, and Deshaun Watson actually playing passably so far this season for the Browns.
1:29So, man, things are really looking up for the Cleveland Browns for a change, and, like, their fans deserve it, man.
1:35They've been through the ringer. This whole Deshaun Watson thing has been a nightmare.
1:39Finally nice to see Deshaun Watson winning games for them.
1:42Yeah, that was fun to see, and someone might have had the money line on the Cleveland Browns.
1:48Someone that we are excited for. DeVro, is this, like, a Todd Munkin credit?
1:52Is this a credit to the roster that's around Deshaun Watson?
1:56Is it a credit to Watson? Not that we want to go out of our way to, you know, give him too
2:03many props, but where do you kind of point to as what's been successful so far for the Browns this season?
2:09Oh, man, I think part of this has been schedule, because I don't think any of us believe that the Steelers are a good football team.
2:17The Panthers' defense is horrible. The Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield can't seem to get out of their own way, and Todd Bowles
2:24is going to be fired very quickly this year.
2:27So I don't want to throw cold water on the Browns.
2:30Their schedule has helped them, though. But are they outperforming expectations?
2:33Yes. And I'll point to the defense. I think the defense where it was like losing Myles Garrett, okay, knowing what we
2:40know now, Myles Garrett will probably have, you know, he had an issue, wouldn't have been part of the pass rush anyway.
2:47Jared Burr, the secondary, all of the parts or pieces playing well.
2:51I think the defensive backbone of this team is what's quietly carrying them.
2:55Deshaun Watson is playing somewhere in the vicinity of league average quarterback right now.
2:59But, yeah, Browns are very surprising. I don't want to go out of my way and be like, oh, they're amazing.
3:06And I was actually going to counterpoint and ask Fitz at the very beginning.
3:10This friend, do you like this friend or is this like a frenemy like that you're recommending the Browns?
3:16Young talent. They've rebuilt the right way. I mean, how good do the trade of the number one pick to the Jaguars?
3:23Now that I hope he's not. I hope the injury last night wasn't serious.
3:27But Mason Graham had been playing some really good ball before he went down.
3:31How good does the verse trade look right now?
3:34I mean, they're they're loaded for bear on draft capital.
3:37Like this rebuild has been really impressive. You're not wrong.
3:40Andrew Barry is really in his bag, dude. And to your point, airdrop a quarterback into this.
3:45And for everybody that didn't because I just want to for us to stretch just a little bit.
3:51Fitzy, people didn't give Denzel Boston enough love in the pre-draft process.
3:55That can also be true. He shouldn't have fallen to the second round.
3:59Fitz just has a soft spot for the Browns because he was in college back when you watch Jim Brown play.
4:05So he's always really liked that. Oh, my. I couldn't help it.
4:09How rude. On the other side of this one, Fitz, is there any sort of fantasy takeaway on this from the Steelers?
4:16Like Roman Wilson, 60 yards and a touchdown, you know, 60 plus yards and a touchdown in his last two games.
4:22You know, he's had six targets in each of those games.
4:26Anything there? Anything anywhere else on the Steelers side of things you want to hit?
4:30DK Metcalf, I think, has been getting a lot of shade.
4:34And we should probably remember that he's pretty good and probably is a fantasy starter most weeks.
4:39Jalen Warren, really good. Like he needs to be the lead guy, not Rico Dowdle, man.
4:44He's just so much better than Rico. And I just don't think we should go overboard on the Steelers passing offense because
4:51I think it was Al Michaels who dropped the stat last night that it was, what, Aaron Rodgers' first 300-yard games in 18 starts?
4:58Last 18 starts or whatever. So it's just there are going to be weeks when the passing offense is pretty dysfunctional, like
5:05it was against the Patriots in week two when they scored three points and just couldn't move the ball.
5:11Yeah. The other thing I want to take away from this, too, is Michael Pittman Jr.
5:16I think is close to, if not droppable. He's not part of the offense.
5:20There's a definitive coverage reason why he's not part of the offense because he's going to be their two-high beater.
5:26And they have played nothing but single high teams.
5:29But to that point, crap ton of single high teams still left on the ledger in the upcoming weeks.
5:35So whether it's the foot injury or the coverage stuff, he has not been a part of this offense.
5:41But also, Darnell Washington, maybe touchdown or bust streamer moving forward?
5:44Like his red zone involvement has been insane. Two catches for 15 yards for Michael Pittman, by the way, just to give the stat line.
5:52All right. Let's get into our key questions here for week four, the rest of the slate.
5:57A reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com.
6:02Slash rankings. We have a London game, guys. I think it's six of the next seven weeks, if I'm not mistaken, that
6:09we have one of these early window games. 930 a.m.
6:12Eastern. Obviously, you know, 630 a.m. Pacific. So that's a tough one for the West Coasters.
6:17Colts at Commanders is this first one. The Commanders impressed against the Seahawks defense last week, pulling off the upset over the defending Super Bowl champs.
6:25Can the offense stay hot with Marcus Mariota in London against the Colts, D-Bro?
6:30Yes, I absolutely think it can. Mariota played out of his mind last week.
6:34I think he's a fantastic streaming option at quarterback, much less like I think he could be a top 12 quarterback this week.
6:41The Colts defense has been god awful. He was QB 13 last week.
6:45Mariota was. And he didn't even run. And we know that like that's basically like his best asset.
6:51Terry McLaurin, Stefan Diggs, like all the parts or pieces for the Commanders offense are really in a good spot here.
6:57Like if Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt does gets another 15 to 17 opportunities and gets the end zone like he's an RB, too.
7:04So I don't want to say like this is a start him.
7:08If you got him kind of Commanders game. But this game is could be a low key shootout because I don't think
7:14either of the defenses on either side can offer pushback.
7:17Fitz, what do you make of the Colts defense as a matchup for your fantasy managers?
7:22There's just in terms of like first two weeks they face the Ravens and the Chiefs and that's going to be really difficult for a lot of defenses.
7:31In week three, they face the Texans. That's going to be pretty easy for a lot of defenses.
7:37They probably the truth is that they end up somewhere in the middle.
7:41But where are they at in your opinion in terms of a defense to be going up against with your fantasy players?
7:47I don't think they're in the middle. I think they're near the bottom.
7:51And the Texans just made them look respectable. And I know the Chiefs and Ravens are really tough matchups.
7:57But yeah, Colts defense right now 31st in yards allowed per play.
8:016.5 yards per play. Only the Cardinals are worse and only by a smidge.
8:05Colts are 30th in defensive DVOA. 30th against the run.
8:0828th against the pass. Their linebackers, I think, are the worst in the league.
8:13And so, yeah, the two guys I think I'm most excited about for the Commanders this week.
8:18Looks like there's a good chance Rashad White misses this game with a shoulder injury.
8:23So this could be a pretty good spot for Ja'Cory Kroski Merritts, even though he has not had a run of longer
8:29than 11 yards this season and is averaging only three yards per carry.
8:33And then Stephon Diggs. Like the Colts have really been getting worked over by slot receivers so far.
8:39And I don't think that means you can't play Terry McLaurin.
8:42And I think he's a reasonable play, too. Like Sauce Gardner isn't a matchup to be feared anymore.
8:48But Diggs, the Colts have been getting pummeled pretty good by slot receivers.
8:52To your point also, Fitzy, about Bill, I'm not saying that Bill was played well.
8:57This is a big offensive line problem for the Commanders.
9:00That's the problem with Bill. Dude, he has the second highest rate of all running backs at least 20 carries of getting hit at or behind the line.
9:08But to the point, the Colts have given up the fifth most yards before contact per attempt.
9:14So he might have some running lanes in this game.
9:17And it's not ideal that I think the Commanders have already ruled out Sam Cosme for this game.
9:22Ooh, yeah. So, yeah, not a good offensive line, but weakness against weakness.
9:26Yes. We've been bringing it up all week, but just to throw it out there, Ja'Cory Kroski Merritts did have a 48-yard
9:33touchdown run called back on a penalty. So those numbers would have looked even better or different against Seattle last week if that had stood.
9:41Debro, Stephon Diggs, wide receiver 31, too high, too low, just right?
9:44Too low. Too low, too low, too low. I've got him.
9:48I'm going to be above consensus right now. Where do I have Diggs?
9:52Stephon Diggs. Stephon Diggs. I've got him at wide receiver 28, so just a shade above.
9:57But if we flip over the cards, because we also need some injury stuff, like some clarity on some players.
10:03So when it's all said and done for final Sunday rankings, he might be borderline low-end wide receiver, too.
10:09And I'm not going to be surprised if he produces as a wide receiver, too, because just for everybody at home right
10:16now, Stephon Diggs is the wide receiver 17 in fantasy points per game.
10:20Let's go to game number two, Titans at Ravens.
10:22We all kind of expect, at least I hope you all kind of expect, that the Ravens are going to roll in this one.
10:30So just for fun, let's predict Derek Henry's stat line for his first ever game facing the Titans.
10:35A bit of a revenge game here. He has talked about this week that, you know, he doesn't view it in that light.
10:42It's just, you know, another week, and he has, you know, a lot of respect and love for his time there.
10:49But still, it's his first time facing the team that didn't want to resign him.
10:54So I think we can maybe have some fun with this.
10:57Debra, I'll start with you. What's his stat line going to look like?
11:01So one of the few things the Titans have actually done is play run defense.
11:06They're allowing the fourth lowest explosive run rate, 13th lowest rushing success rate, 7th lowest zone yards per carry, and Derek Henry almost 58% zone runs.
11:14Now, all that being said, Derek Henry is probably going to sniff in the neighborhood of 20 opportunities in this game.
11:20I'll give him, I'll go high level view here.
11:23I'll give him 20 touches, 95 total yards, and he gets to the ends on the least once.
11:28Yeah, the amount of work he gets in this one, I think, is interesting fits.
11:33Because on the one hand, you could say, okay, the Ravens want to like really let Henry show out against his former team.
11:40On the other hand, they need him for the long haul, and this feels like a game where if they go up
11:47early, maybe they can dial it down. Because he's been getting tons of touches.
11:51He has two games already this season through three weeks with at least 24 carries.
11:56I would imagine that they would like to lower that number a bit if they can, at least early in the year,
12:03and kind of save him a bit for December.
12:06What do you think the stat line is going to look like?
12:09I'll say pretty good volume, 129 rushing yards, one touchdown.
12:12Okay, so a big week. Yeah, by the way, I was just revisiting the Titans years for Derrick Henry.
12:18So eight seasons, 93 touchdowns. And, I mean, obviously Derrick Henry is going to wind up in the Hall of Fame.
12:25But, like, can you imagine what the career might have looked like if he hadn't been the backup to DeMarco Murray for his first two seasons?
12:33He had four starts in his first two years in the league because DeMarco Murray was ahead of him.
12:39And he only started when DeMarco Murray was banged up.
12:42But then once he got going in, what, 2018, his first year as a starter, six seasons, his last six years with
12:48the Titans, five 1,000-yard rushing seasons, including that 2,000-yard rushing season in 2020.
12:52And the only miss was in 2021 when he broke his foot in week eight.
12:57At the time, he had 937 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns through eight weeks.
13:01Yeah. And just how everybody remembers too kindly, in 2018, he was also splitting work with Deion Lewis.
13:07And Deion Lewis, yeah. So things that should have never happened to Derrick Henry.
13:11That 2018, or sorry, that 2021 season where he got hurt, where he played eight games fits, he still finished as the RB16 on the season.
13:19He played half the year. He was off to such a good start.
13:23Can I just say that, like, I honestly don't know if we've ever respected Derrick Henry enough, as much respect as we're giving him, like, right here.
13:32Because how many years in the fantasy community was, like, oh, he doesn't catch passes.
13:36He doesn't catch enough passes. Oh, Derrick Henry. And we're, like, oh, but he's not using the receiving game.
13:42And Derrick Henry is just a freaking savage, man.
13:45Yeah. I always kind of scoff a little when I hear talking heads say, like, oh, Derrick Henry is, like, the last,
13:52you know, great Hall of Fame running back because people don't care about the running game anymore.
13:57I'm, like, listen, Jameer Gibbs and B. John Robinson are amazing.
14:00Like, there are other guys coming through who could be on this level.
14:04But it is just so fun to watch a Hall of Famer who's, like, in his 30s still basically borderline playing like his prime is really cool.
14:13Gibbs and B. John are modern NFL running backs.
14:15Yes. Like, personified. Whereas Derrick Henry is a throwback to the 1970s thrown into the modern era, and it's kind of fun to watch.
14:23Yeah. Oh, it's amazing to watch. I just threw my hands up about three or four years ago, and I was just like, okay, fine.
14:31Derrick Henry is an RB1, and he is an outlier until he decides to hang in the league.
14:36I'm going to see it not work before I'm going to bet on it not working.
14:41And it's cool. Just him and Lamar in the same backfield has been absolutely as cool as everybody expected.
14:47Like, I mean, still this year, he's still 11th amongst running backs in yards after contact per attempt.
14:53It's insane. He's absurd. All right, let's go to what may be a closer game here.
14:57Patriots at Bills. Drake May has had a nightmare start to the season.
15:01He's QB 31 through three weeks. Consensus rankings haven't punished him too much yet, though.
15:06He's QB 14 in ECR. Is that too high, too low, or just right for May against this Bills defense fits?
15:13I am at QB 12. I still think Drake May is good at football.
15:17I get that people are frustrated, the Drake May investors.
15:20There are people in the Fantasy Pros Discord asking me if they should start Kirk Cousins over Drake May this week.
15:27And they seem unsatisfied when I tell them that I would still start May.
15:31And, like, of course Cousins could absolutely outscore May this week.
15:34But I'm making the bet on May 11 times out of 10 over Cousins.
15:39And I don't want to make too many excuses for May.
15:42He has not been good this year. But did have a brutal road matchup against Seattle in Week 1.
15:48That's the toughest matchup you can have for a quarterback.
15:51Wasn't really that bad against Pittsburgh in Week 2.
15:54Only needed to throw 22 passes. Didn't have any touchdowns, so, like, statistically unsatisfying.
15:58And then last week, yeah, just a terrible game against the Jaguars.
16:02And I do think not having A.J. Brown is a limiting factor.
16:05And his offensive line hasn't played well. They've kind of picked up where they left off in the playoffs last year.
16:12But I still think May is good. He still has the running ability.
16:16I mean, is Kirk Cousins going to get you any rushing production?
16:20Like, May had a 21-yard touchdown run wiped out by a holding penalty last week.
16:24And this week, I think what you like about Drake May is that the Patriots are going to have to try to
16:31keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills. And the Bills are going to be without Christian Benford, their best cover man.
16:38So I do think there's a ray of hope for Drake May this week.
16:42Drake May looks broken on some level, Debro. And yet, I feel like just on principle, if you're in any kind of
16:49league that values quarterbacks, super flex format, dynasty, whatever, it just feels like he, on principle, is probably a smart person to
16:56try and buy at a low cost. Because the upside, even if there's no guarantee that he gets to that upside this
17:03season, the upside is just so immense for a player like this.
17:06Yeah, I don't disagree with that. I think in any dynasty format, I don't know anybody that's going to be selling him
17:13low enough to get rid of him. Like, I know Fitzy, if we have him in any leagues, you're not getting rid of him, as most people do.
17:22Because, again, we're only four weeks into the season, or we will be four weeks after Sunday into the season.
17:28So it's a small sample size. No A.J. Brown is doing a lot of, you know, disservice for Drake May.
17:34But he is not playing well. He's pressing. But to say all of this, I think there is a ray of hope
17:41that Fitzy, like, laid out here perfectly. No Christian Benford does a ton of things for Drake May.
17:46And the coverage matchup for him this week, you have two receivers in Romeo Dobbs and Mack Hollins that are very good against too high.
17:54And so looking at the coverage matchup for Drake May, like, I'm at ECR right now.
17:59I've got him at QB 14. But, I mean, you tell me he's a QB 1 this week trying to keep pace with Josh Allen.
18:07I'm not hating that at all. You two and I are in a dynasty league together where I have Drake May and Justin Herbert as my two quarterbacks.
18:15And somehow, thank you, Kenneth Walker, I have two wins this season.
18:19But with those two, a quarterback every weekend has been really painful.
18:23I see your quarterback situation and I'll show you mine.
18:26And mine's way worse than that league, by the way.
18:29Yeah. Losing Jackson Dart did me no favors. Yeah, I wasn't going to call you out for that.
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19:37All right, next game up, guys. Jets at Bears.
19:40Just an easy one here. Where are you guys ranking Braylon Allen as the Jets starting running back this week against the Bears?
19:47We expected Brees Hall to not play. That has been official.
19:50Now, made official. He's ruled out for this game.
19:53So where is Braylon Allen ranked for you, D-Bro?
19:56RB19. I just look at him as a volume-based RB2 with a good matchup in this one.
20:01And then, you know, I love the way that Braylon Allen's always categorized as like a big thumper.
20:07Like, dude, he doesn't run to his size. He hasn't since college.
20:10Like, he doesn't break a ton of tackles. This year he has zero explosive runs, 1.89 yards of contact per attempt.
20:17So, like, the per-touch efficiency I don't think is going to be amazing for Braylon Allen, however long he keeps this starter's
20:24chair for the Jets until Brees is back. But the matchup is awesome, man.
20:28Like, the Bears still can't stop the run. Ninth highest explosive run rate.
20:32Highest rushing success rate. So I think Braylon Allen's sniffing somewhere in like the 15 to 18 opportunities category.
20:38And if he gets into the end zone this week, he'll be probably a top 15 back just based on volume.
20:44He's RB21 in the half PPR consensus rankings here.
20:47Fitz, unlike my joke about you watching Jim Brown in college, you actually did watch a lot of Braylon Allen in college because he is a Wisconsin Badger.
20:56Or what are your thoughts on sort of his early career so far and what you expect to see out of him?
21:02So savage. Yeah, Debro nailed it. Like, Allen is the 235-pound back who sometimes thinks he's a 200-pound back and would rather elude guys than run over them.
21:11And it's funny, though. Every once in a while he'll remember how big he is and just bury some poor cornerback who's
21:18coming up to try to make a tackle on him.
21:21And that's always fun to watch. But, yeah, like, I'm a little lower than Debro.
21:26I'm an RB21. And I guess I have no beef with RB19.
21:29I think that could be spot on. The question is just how much are the Jets going to mix in Isaiah Davis?
21:36Because we had heard Aaron Glenn talk about this maybe being a three-headed backfield before this season.
21:41Isaiah Davis has only played special teams so far this season.
21:45No offensive snaps. Now that's going to change this week because they're going to need someone to occasionally relieve Braylon Allen.
21:51But how occasional? Because the matchup is good. I know the Bears haven't been quite the defensive pushover.
21:57People expected them to be in the Eagles offense.
22:00Made the Bears defense look very good last Monday night.
22:03But this is still not a very good Chicago defense.
22:06The Bears are 28th in DVOA against the run.
22:08They're giving up 4.8 yards per carry to running backs.
22:12Pretty good matchup for Braylon Allen. And maybe he does get like 20 touches.
22:16Entirely possible. Yeah. And in the fourth quarter, Fitzy, he played 72% of the snaps.
22:21I think you're going to see around like a 65-70% snap rate for Braylon Allen.
22:25And to your point, the only reason I have him at RB19 is more of like just the state of the running back position.
22:33Like, I don't know if Aaron Jones holds up another week with an 80% snap count.
22:37Bucky Irving, how much does he play? Amorian Hampton, game scripted out.
22:41David Montgomery dealing with Woody Marks. Like, I think Braylon Allen, I feel really good about his volume workload.
22:47That's the only reason I have him as high as I do and the matchup.
22:52It might be surprising to some. I mean, we remember how young he came into the league.
22:57Still only 22 years old, Braylon Allen. He's going to be 22 the entire season.
23:02He won't turn 23 until January. He was the youngest player at any position in his draft class.
23:07Yeah. Couldn't even drink. Couldn't even drink and, you know, getting NFL paychecks.
23:11I also find it surprising, I'm looking at his career stats right now, that he only has four rushing touchdowns in his
23:18career because I feel like it has happened more often that I want a Brees Hall touchdown and I look up and it's Braylon Allen.
23:26But I guess it hasn't actually happened that often.
23:28It's just in my head. I just remember the times it does happen, I guess.
23:33It's funny because he could play Derrick Henry in a movie, but he doesn't run like Derrick Henry.
23:39Yeah. No, no. Braylon Allen has always been a dancing bear going back to college where you're just like, bro, lower your shoulder.
23:46And he's like, but I can juke move. I can jump cut.
23:49And it's like, no, no, dude, you can't. Don't do that.
23:53Let's go to maybe the best game on the Sunday slate.
23:56Jags at Bengals. The total 51 and a half and a spread of just two and a half points.
24:02So a very fun game that we're expecting. So just have fun with this.
24:06Give me a final score prediction and a player of the game fits.
24:10I'll say Duvall pulls this one out in a nail biter.
24:1424 to 23. Comes down to the last possession.
24:17And player of the game. I'll say Trevor Lawrence.
24:19Like he's been pretty good. Hasn't thrown 30 passes in a game yet this season.
24:24So the fantasy stance are not like eye popping.
24:27But I think Liam Cohen gives Trevor the opportunity to let his hair down.
24:31So to speak in this game. Throws 35 or more times and has 300 plus yards and three TDs.
24:37That's my prediction. I feel like this game will tell us a lot about actually kind of both of these teams.
24:43But really the Jags is what I'm looking at.
24:46Because yes, they have a couple of blowout wins this season.
24:50It was against week one Deshaun Watson. And it was against a really struggling Drake May.
24:55And then they lost pretty handedly in Denver. Which is a tough place to play.
24:59I feel like we don't quite know just how good this Jags team can be yet.
25:04And playing at Cincy I think will give us a better idea of that.
25:08Debra, what do you expect out of this game?
25:11I was just waiting for you to make some kind of hair joke.
25:15I felt like I was going to catch a stray after Fitz said that.
25:20No, I got all my snarky jokes out of the way towards Fitz already.
25:24Yeah, yeah. Okay, all right, all right. Well, I'll wait for later in the show because I know it's coming.
25:30You're going to let me let my guard down.
25:33But dude, I think this game is going to be a shootout.
25:37I'm going to just go high watermark here. I think it's 31-28 and I am taking the Jacksonville Jaguars.
25:42I think that they win this game. And I'll go with the low-hanging fruit.
25:47For a team that hasn't been pushed to have a monster output on offense yet.
25:51Or at least kind of counterpunch and go back and forth with the team yet.
25:56I think we're going to see a blow-up game for Parker Washington.
26:00I think we're due for it. And the matchup also leans itself that way.
26:04Like we know DJ Turner is lurking on the outside.
26:07So Jacoby Myers, Brian Thomas Jr., Josh Cameron, good luck.
26:10Parker Washington versus Cincinnati in the slot. Cincinnati has quietly given up the seventh most yards per target and the seventh most
26:17fantasy points per opportunity to opposing slot receivers. Jalen Davis, their slot corner has not been good.
26:22He's quietly been terrible. Amongst 25 qualifying slot corners, he's given the 11th highest EPA per target up and the fourth highest step of separation.
26:30So I think this is where we finally see Parker Washington erupt with a 100-yard game and multiple scores.
26:36Yeah, that would be really fun. And I think very possible in this one.
26:40Gladstone, get that contract done, man. That price is only going up.
26:44Yeah. Where is Parker Washington ranked? I mean, obviously, everybody's starting him.
26:48But just out of curiosity, where is he ranked?
26:50Oh, I've got him aggressive. I mean, he's inside the top 10 in ECR.
26:55Wide receiver 7 right now. He's wide receiver 9 in ECR.
26:58Fitz, where is he for you? 10 for me.
27:01And I might have to come up. I hate being below ECR in Parker Washington.
27:05Yeah. It doesn't feel fun right now to be below on him.
27:09Let's go to Cowboys at Texans. This should be a matchup of strength on strength with the Cowboys offense facing the Texans defense, though.
27:17Houston hasn't really lived up to their end of the bargain so far this season with their defense.
27:22How do you see this game playing out? High scoring, back and forth affair, or more slower, lower scoring game fits?
27:29Can I go somewhere in the middle? Like, I know the Texans haven't been great defensively, but I have no doubt this
27:35is still one of the best defenses in the league.
27:39So it's strength against strength when the Cowboys have the ball.
27:42But it's kind of weakness against weakness when the Texans have the ball.
27:46The Houston offense might be slightly better than last year, but still isn't good.
27:50And the Dallas defense, it has the potential to be better than it was last season.
27:55But it's a really banged up unit right now, especially in the back end.
28:00Maybe Joey Porter suits up for the Cowboys this week.
28:03I don't know how many snaps he would play when he's just learning Christian Parker's system.
28:08You know, Nico Collins possibly back for the Texans, which would further stress that beaten up Dallas secondary.
28:13And, yeah, I want to see if George Pickens can get it going in this game.
28:18Pretty tough matchup. Maybe this isn't the weekend for Pickens to break out, but his investors, I know, are growing impatient.
28:25Where are you ranking Pickens, Fitz, before he tosses it to zero?
28:28Because he's wide receiver 15 in ECR. I'm right on.
28:31That's where I am. I'm on ECR. Okay. Yeah, it's been frustrating for me.
28:36His three finishes so far this season have been wide receiver 66, wide receiver 41, and wide receiver 27.
28:41Really, he hasn't had any touchdowns yet, which, you know, there's only so much you can do to overcome that with catches and yards.
28:49D-Bro, where are you at on this game? I've got the answers for all of this.
28:54George Pickens breakout week, baby. Okay. I'm calling it right now.
28:57I think he's going to have a monster game, and this all goes to the coverage stuff.
29:02And the reason George Pickens hasn't had a monster game, if you look at the coverage splits between him and CeeDee Lamb
29:09over the last few years, between single high and two high, CeeDee Lamb is a two high guy.
29:15Dallas has played a lot of two high teams thus far.
29:18George Pickens is going to erupt because the Houston Texans play single high at the third highest rate, 67% in the NFL.
29:25George Pickens this year versus single high, 54% target per route run rate, 3.54 yards per route run.
29:31If you combine this year and last year as well, people want a larger sample.
29:35George Pickens versus single high, 30% target per route run rate, 3.56 yards per route run.
29:40He eats it alive. You can even go back to Steelers splits, and George Pickens had it then too.
29:46So I think this is the Pickens game. I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair with the fact that
29:53Nico Collins is back in this game is massive for the Texans' ability to try to keep pace with the Cowboys in this game.
30:00If he wasn't in this game, then I would be much more of like, does this total need to come down just a little bit?
30:08But I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair.
30:11Who do you prefer, Debro, between Nico or Pickens, if you can only start one this week?
30:17They're both ranked inside the top 15. You prefer Pickens.
30:20It's quarterback play, man. I'm taking Dak or CJ Stroud.
30:23I'm taking Dak. I have Pickens one spot ahead of Nico.
30:26The one thing that worries me about the Cowboys, though, and Debro makes the good point about coverage, but we haven't seen
30:33Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter just wreck a game for an opposing offense yet, and those guys are capable of that in
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33:51Okay, next game. Cardinals at Giants. Guys, Jeremiah Love had the best game of his young career last week against the Niners
33:57with 19.4 half PPR points and an RB7 finish.
34:00Where are you ranking him against the Giants? And also, where are you ranking him rest of season, Fitz?
34:06I'm at RB11 this week and RB11 rest of season.
34:09And I do realize those are pretty conservative rankings.
34:12The Giants were terrible against the run last year.
34:15I think they might be more of a neutral matchup this year.
34:18They were pretty good against Javante Williams in week one.
34:21Sort of got run over by the Rams in week two.
34:25But the Giants offense wasn't doing its part to keep the Rams offense off the field in that game.
34:31And then the Giants just stuffed the Titans running game last week.
34:34Although, that's really no great feat. So, the Giants, their run defense currently 10th in DVOA.
34:39I think that's falsely high. But last year, they were dead last.
34:43And they're better than that this year. And then RB11 for Jeremiah Love rest of season might be conservative.
34:49But the Cardinals really don't have any incentive to give Love 20 to 25 touches a week when they're still in sort
34:56of come up mode and not really contending for anything this year.
34:59Although, Michael LaFleur does seem to have the Kyle Shanahan gene where he just can't stop giving his lead guy that many.
35:06I mean, we saw Jeremiah Love get way too much work in his first preseason game.
35:11And plus, at some point, we might get a prolonged Carson Beck audition at quarterback late in the season, which might not be positive for the Arizona offense.
35:20Debra, where are you at on Love? By the way, just in terms of the consensus rankings, he's RB10 for this week, RB13 rest of season.
35:28So, Fitz, just behind consensus for this week, just ahead of consensus rest of season.
35:32I've got him at RB14 for this week and rest of season, but I have him at RB15.
35:38And I just want to give Fitz flowers to lead this off of what I'm going to discuss about Love.
35:44We kind of batted it back and forth last week about, like, why is Jeremiah Love?
35:49And I gave the Cardinals both barrels, and I was, like, so idiotic, blah, blah, blah, blah.
35:54Apparently, it was just the injury because he was a bell cow last week.
35:59So, shout out to Fitz, he's for being ahead of the curve on that one.
36:03I was behind. But, dude, I will be at consensus or above on Jeremiah Love, like, right now and rest of season.
36:10So, I need to come up on my ranking because, to Fitzy's point, I don't – I'm not scared of the Giants run defense, man.
36:18They've given up the seventh highest explosive run rate and the sixth highest rushing success rate.
36:23I think this is another game where Jeremiah Love has a really good outing, and he is the clear bell cow, apparently.
36:30So, while rest of season I do have concerns about the Cardinals' offense, the only thing where Fitz and I differ right
36:36now is, like, if they stay competitive, I think we see Brissette for the rest of the year, barring an injury.
36:43Like, I don't think Carson Beck is a long-term answer quarterback.
36:46Neither do I, but that schedule is brutal. Like, they can be a respectable team and still only win, like, four games this year.
36:54And I just feel like at some point there's no incentive not to give Carson Beck a couple of starts.
37:00You know what I mean? Just to see what sort of hand you're holding before next year's draft.
37:05Debra, did you say you want to be above consensus on Love for this week?
37:10Because he's RB10. Jalen Warren was RB9, so he's already played, obviously.
37:14And then it's, like, kind of the eight usual suspects ahead of him.
37:18Gibbs, Robinson, Walker, McCaffrey, Henry Taylor, Cook, and Gentty.
37:20So, I'm not sure how much higher you can really move from unless you want to knock down one of those bigger names.
37:28I mean, I would say I'm more concerned about Gentty and Spaggs trying to just take away the run and stuff because
37:34it's, like, the two pillars of the Raiders' offense.
37:37Okay, Bowers and Gentty, take those away. And what do you have left to beat us?
37:42So, I'm probably going to drop Gentty. And I'll, you know, I'll kind of sift through the rest of this and stuff.
37:49But I do think Love has a massive game this week.
37:52Okay. Let's go to Rams at Eagles. The Eagles looked bad against the Bears' defense that we all expected to be one
37:59of the worst in football this season. On a scale from 1 to 10, what is your panic level on Philly right now?
38:06Can they bounce back against a good Rams team, Debro?
38:096.5? That's about where I'm at. Like, and I'm more worried about the defense than I am about the offense.
38:15Like, and I know that sounds, like, kind of strange.
38:19But I think Jalen Hurts learning this new playbook and all the parts and pieces in between, I think that we're going
38:25to see a better improved offense as we move through the season as opposed to what we're seeing right now.
38:31But on the other side of it, like Philly, outside of Tariq, Wolin, and Quinion on the outside, what are they doing well?
38:39Like, the run defense has improved some. The middle of the field, they're not defending it well.
38:44Cooper Dejean is playing some really rough football right now.
38:47And they don't have a pass rush. So I'm more worried about, like, this vaunted Eagles defense that we were expecting coming
38:54into the season that has a crap ton of talent hasn't really played up to the bar yet.
38:59Fitz? I'm in a seven. I'm glad Debro pointed out the fact that maybe we should give the Eagles a little bit
39:06of grace early in the season because they are, like, the offensive MO is just changing.
39:11It's not just different play calling. It's, like, trying to have Jalen Hurts play under center more.
39:16That's a change. It's probably going to take some time to take hold.
39:20The part that worries me is that, like, the Eagles offensive line is just, they used to have one of the best
39:27offensive lines, if not the best offensive line in the league.
39:30I don't even know if it's average right now.
39:33Like, so far this year, it's been below average.
39:36The Eagles ranked 24th in the run-blocking metric adjusted line yards.
39:39And they are 26th in the pass-blocking metric adjusted sack rate.
39:43And I know they are putting in a new scheme, too, moving on from their old offensive line coach, Jeff Stoutland.
39:49And supposedly, like, it's an easier scheme for them to digest.
39:53There's less for the offensive lineman to read pre-snap.
39:55But, man, so far the performance has just been pretty disappointing.
39:59And maybe no Devontae Smith this week. I know he wasn't practicing as of Thursday.
40:03So, boy, going up against a good Rams defense.
40:06Might have to ratchet up the panic meter just a little higher after this game.
40:11And to your point, Fitzy, like, no Smith this week.
40:14No Dallas Goddard still out. Missing some of your most talented players.
40:18Also, Makai Lemon not being there for preseason in training camp.
40:21And you could see it in the data. The Eagles are still kind of struggling.
40:26Like, how do we best utilize this player? So, they're trying to figure it out real time of, like, how do we deploy this guy?
40:33It's a lot of moving around chess pieces around the board for the Eagles right now.
40:38Yeah. So, you guys were a 6.5 and a 7.
40:41When I put together this question, I was thinking about a 6 for myself.
40:46So, we're all kind of in the same range here.
40:49And, I mean, it's really, like, this isn't meant to be a knock on Jalen Hurts.
40:54It's just when you think about the strength of the Eagles team as they've been so good the last few years.
41:00It's the offensive line and the defense. The defense has not lived up to expectations.
41:05And the offensive line, like you said, Fitz, has been not right bad.
41:09And so, if those are sort of the pillars of your organization and they're not performing, I think it's fair to have
41:16some level of maybe panic's too strong a word, but concern, certainly.
41:19Just quickly before we move off this game, where are you guys ranking Dontavian Wicks with all the other players out?
41:26And I don't think that – I think Devontae Smith has all been pretty much ruled out for winning or for playing this game.
41:33Yeah, it seems pretty unlikely plays. I – Dontavian Wicks.
41:36By the way, Devontae Smith in our Are They Playing Tool 15% chance.
41:40And I think that'll go down today. Like, I bet he gets ruled out today.
41:45Dontavian Wicks, I'm probably – he's going to be in the wide receiver three category for me.
41:50Like, I'm going to have him swimming somewhere in the same pool of, like, Stefan Diggs, Emeka Ibuka, J-Mo, somewhere around there.
41:57So, somewhere in, like, the wide receiver 28-20 – wide receiver 28-30 kind of category.
42:02He's wide receiver 39 right now, so you're going to be well ahead.
42:06But I think he could be a wide receiver two this week based off a target volume.
42:11Like, who else is catching the freaking ball? I've got him 39, and I will not come up.
42:17Like, ECR is going to come up on him when Devontae Smith is scratched.
42:21I'm not coming up. That's as high as I can go with this offense looking the way it has.
42:27Okay. Okay. Packers at Buccaneers next game up. Tampa Bay is without Baker Mayfield, of course, but the Packers have also been a train wreck this season.
42:35Sorry, Fitz. How interested are you in starting Emeka Ibuka this week, Pat?
42:39Because, I mean, again, it seems like it's the opposite of an unstoppable force meeting a movable object.
42:45This is a stoppable force meeting a very movable object.
42:48In fairness, the Packers' defense was pretty good against the Vikings in week one up until the very end, and against the
42:55Jets in week two, then fell apart against the Falcons.
42:58No question. I've got Ibuka wide receiver 34, and I do kind of regret having ranked him one spot ahead of Denzel Boston.
43:05Man, like the chances with Jalen Daniels, and how weird is it that the first quarterback from the class of 2026 to
43:11make a start is the undrafted rookie free agent.
43:14That's pretty wild. Yeah. Sooner than Fernando Mendoza, the number one pick in the draft.
43:19Yeah, that is crazy. So I've got Ibuka wide receiver 34.
43:22I don't think there's a great chance of him getting five or more catches.
43:27It's all about whether he can make a big play or two.
43:30You are exactly aligned with consensus. He is wide receiver 34 in ECR.
43:34Debra, where are you at? I'm a little bit higher.
43:37I've got him at wide receiver 30, and this is only because Ibuka has been playing way better football than his stat
43:44lines and his fantasy points per game suggest. Like right now amongst 86 qualifying wide receivers, he's 19th in separation, 15th in route win rate.
43:52The problem with Ibuka is a Baker Mayfield problem.
43:55He has the 12th lowest amongst 88 qualifying wide receivers, the 12th lowest catchable target rate.
44:00So I look at Jalen Daniels starting, and I'm like, okay, he might not be amazing, but I don't know if he
44:06can give Ibuka less catchable targets than Baker Mayfield's been doing.
44:10So honestly, he might be an improvement this week.
44:13He might. Emeka Ibuka might see more catchable targets, and if that's the case, to Fitz's point, like, yeah, the Packers have
44:19been in a roller coaster for a defense. They're allowing the 12th most yards per target and the six most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.
44:28This could quietly be a really good game for Emeka Ibuka.
44:31But again, like this is assuming at least league average quarterback play for Jalen Daniels, and that might be an assumption way too far that I'm making.
44:40So for you, D-Bro, I know the answer for Fitz, Ibuka or Dontavian Wicks?
44:44Who would you rather start? Oh, Ibuka. Okay. Because you said he's about, you know, given where he's ranked, it's similar to
44:51where you said you were probably going to bump Wicks up too.
44:55But you'd rather have Ibuka? Yeah, I've got him right above Wicks right now.
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45:27Let's get to the late afternoon slate here, guys.
45:30Dolphins at Vikings. Ollie Gordon was the big waiver pickup of the week with Devon Achan out for the season.
45:36Now the Dolphins have to face an angry Brian Flores defense.
45:39Where is Gordon ranked for you this week, D-Bro?
45:42Right now he is RB36, and wherever ECR is come Sunday morning, I want to make sure I'm below it because I
45:49feel like we're going to get rug pulled with Ollie Gordon, or it's the least possible right now.
45:54He was the big waiver wire pickup because everybody's like, oh, he got all the work and stuff and blah, blah, blah.
46:01He's going to be the starter. Jalen Wright was out, and he has been the RB2 on the step chart.
46:07This week, Jalen Wright, who was out of that game with a foot injury and a stinger, had a limited practice to
46:14open the week and had a full practice. So I think that we're going to see Jalen Wright.
46:20He might be the starter for the Miami Dolphins this week, or at least at bare minimum, if he is active, splitting work with Ollie Gordon this week.
46:28Because if you look just throughout the entirety of the season, I know we've only gotten seven offensive snaps for Jalen Wright,
46:35but Ollie Gordon didn't get any offensive snaps. Excuse me, he got four offensive snaps in week one, and he basically hasn't
46:42done anything, and he's been behind Wright the entire time on this depth chart.
46:46And oh, by the way, Ollie Gordon hasn't been good since 2025.
46:50He has 1.84 yards of contact per attempt and an 8% missed tackle rate.
46:54So I think this could be a rug pull situation.
46:57I don't want to start Ollie Gordon. Fitz? I don't know if I agree that Jalen Wright has always been the number two behind Devon H.
47:05And it seems like the Dolphins have kind of oscillated on that since 2025 when they drafted Ollie.
47:11But, like, it could be right. I feel like the Dolphins don't know whether they like Jalen Wright or dislike Jalen Wright.
47:18And, like, Gordon hasn't been good, but I don't think Jalen Wright's been particularly good either.
47:22Um, so I agree, though. It's a very ambiguous situation.
47:26Right now I've got Ollie Gordon RB34 and Wright RB42.
47:29And I have no idea if that's right. And I really don't want to play either against the Brian Flores defense.
47:35I mean, the Vikings have allowed, I think, the sixth fewest rushing yards.
47:39Um, and they're going to be... We've talked about the revenge narrative with, uh, Brian Flores going against the team that fired him.
47:46Oh, and not only did they fire him after three years as their head coach, They fired him and were later found
47:53to have been talking to Sean Payton about the head coaching job before they had fired Brian Flores.
47:59So, yes, Brian Flores is going to be dialing up everything and probably pulling everything out of his bag this week against
48:05the poor, undermanned Miami Dolphins who don't have Devon A.
48:08There is a morbid curiosity in watching this defense going up against the Dolphins offense.
48:13I mean, how many times in NFL history do we have a coach who is suing the other team, who is already
48:20one of the blitz-heaviest coaches in the NFL, going up against a woefully undermanned offense?
48:25Like, it is going to be a sight to watch, honestly.
48:28I think the implied Vegas total for Miami is 13 points, and that seems wildly aspirational.
48:33I'll take the under, yeah. Are you guys interested in starting Malik Washington just in the idea, like a PPR league, and
48:40the idea he might get a lot of empty calorie catches?
48:43Erickson brought this up that if you're going to blitz, I mean, that might mean Malik Willis going to his hot route
48:50guy a lot of the time, which is probably going to be Malik Washington.
48:54But that might mean a stat line like six for 53.
48:58So I do have him sort of like, I think, high-end wide receiver four, low-end wide receiver three, somewhere in there.
49:04Playable, but maybe in PPR, not really in like standard or half PPR.
49:08Would I be that interested? He's back-to-back in ECR with Dontavian Wicks, actually.
49:12They're in that kind of late 30s ranking range.
49:15Since we're going down the Malik Washington rabbit hole, can I give a little bit of shine to Chris Bell?
49:21Because if I'm going for a flex play out of one of these guys out of this past catching core, I'm firmly Chris Bell over Malik Washington.
49:29Like Malik Washington's been getting all these empty PPR calories and this high target share.
49:34Again, we have to monitor the news and stuff, and a lot of this comes down to like the health of Chris Bell's knee.
49:41He had a 64% route share and a 19% target share last week.
49:45I think if his knee complies, we could be living in a world where the route share goes up yet again this
49:52week, and maybe he takes the 20% plus target share this week away from Malik Washington, and he's a decent flex play.
49:59Because while Minnesota's been awesome on a defense, and they've been insane, they're also giving up the 11th most yards per target
50:06and the 10th most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.
50:10So there is hope for Chris Bell. A lot of that was against the Packers where they were sending the house at Jordan Love.
50:17Love would manage to complete throws to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and there were only like three guys in the defensive
50:24backfield to try to tackle those dudes. So there were some huge plays in that week one game for the Packers.
50:30I think that's kind of like skewing that stat.
50:33I just, I would much rather have the short, and generally I agree, like Chris Bell would be the guy I'd probably
50:40want in season long more than Malik Washington, just because Washington, we know the upside isn't really much of anything.
50:46But against the Vikings, like I want the short area receiver, not the downfield guy.
50:51Well, the point about Chris Bell, a lot of crossers and stuff where he's just been asked to run away from guys.
50:57So, yeah. Next game, Chiefs at Raiders. A surprisingly fun one.
51:01It's a 3-0 record for the Raiders. They're one of the early contenders for surprise stories of the year.
51:07They now get their toughest matchup yet so far in the also undefeated Chiefs.
51:11It felt to me when I was putting together the show sheet that most players in this game are either pretty obvious starts or pretty obvious sits.
51:19So I just wanted to keep it simple. Go ahead and pick this game against the spread.
51:25Chiefs minus 4.5 and the total 47.5. Fitz, I'll start with you.
51:28I'm going to take the Raiders and the under.
51:31Like, I think they make this a game. And one of the reasons, like, Max Crosby has been playing so insanely well, the whole Raiders defense, really.
51:39And, like, as well as the Chiefs have been playing, they are starting an undrafted rookie free agent at left tackle.
51:46And their right tackle is not especially good. And I think that could be a problem on the edges this week against the Raiders.
51:53Debra? Debra? I agree with Fitzy on the under.
51:56I'm taking the Chiefs, and I think they cover in this one.
52:00And this isn't, like, Raiders hate and stuff like that.
52:03But this is just going back, again, to the spags of it all.
52:07I think spags, like, for a defensive coordinator that prides himself on, like, literally it's, I'm going to take away your best player.
52:14I'm going to do that. The Raiders have two pillars of this is their entire freaking offense, is Brock Bowers and Ashton Gentey.
52:21So I'm not saying you can eliminate either one of those players fully from the game plan, but can you throw enough
52:28potholes on the road to where it makes it very difficult?
52:31Yes. And it's not like Kirk Cousins isn't a limited quarterback.
52:35So I think the Chiefs can cover. I think that this is probably an uglier game than a lot of people expect.
52:41And to the Max Crosby of it all, I think he's going to be in the backfield religiously, staring down at Mahomes as he sacks him this week.
52:50So, Debra, are you, like, fading Brock Bowers in the rankings in anticipation of this?
52:55I mean, there's only so far you can knock him down.
52:58I mean, there's only so far you can fade him.
53:01So, I mean, like, if you got him, you're starting him.
53:05But, like, he's going to get target volume. The question is, you know, how successful is he with that target volume?
53:11Yeah. I mean, nobody has to make this decision.
53:14But, like, would you rank him behind Trey McBride for this week?
53:18Or are you? I mean, I got him behind Trey McBride.
53:21But, I mean, you're talking about the top. Yeah.
53:24I mean, again, it's not really, like, an actionable bit of advice.
53:27I was just curious kind of where he falls for you.
53:31Okay. Let's go to the next game here. Chargers at Seahawks.
53:34Janarian Price fumbled in week three against the Commanders and never really had the chance to get going after that.
53:40Are you willing to start him against a struggling Chargers team?
53:44He's ranked RB30 in ECR for the week. He has not finished that high in any game this season.
53:50He's been RB35, RB42, and RB70 in his first career games in the NFL.
53:54So is that RB30 ranking too high, Debro? Hell yes.
53:57I'm not playing anybody from the Seattle backfield. Because the work has been split up three freaking different ways.
54:03And Janarian Price has put the ball on the ground two times in the last two games and found the doghouse.
54:09I don't want to play anybody from the Seahawks backfield at all.
54:13Because I don't know where the freaking ball is going.
54:16Hold on. Let me ask you guys this. So Janarian Price missed practice Thursday with a chest injury.
54:22And I know he's been questionable with the chest injury.
54:25Wonded up playing through it. I don't know if it was like exacerbated or whatever.
54:29Or if it's just maybe he really is in fumble jail now.
54:33Because that was his second straight week with a fumble.
54:36So if Janarian Price is inactive for this game, would you be willing to start Emmanuel Wilson against the Chargers?
54:42That I would do. Because also to your point, Fitzy, George Helani is on the injury report.
54:48So is he kind of dinged up? If we get that type of clarity, then yes, you can interest me in Emmanuel Wilson.
54:55Because also, trust of the coaching staff. He did have the high volume week.
54:59And so proving trust. If we get more clarity, then yes, I will be in on Emmanuel Wilson.
55:05But if Price is active and Helani is active, no.
55:08So say we get no Janarian Price, how would you rank these three guys?
55:12Emmanuel Wilson, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara. Emmanuel Wilson over both of those guys.
55:16And then probably Kamara ahead of Dobbins. Because Dobbins is going to get his early down work.
55:21But he gets no passing game work. And if he has no touchdown, then you're hating life.
55:27I think I'm with you. I think I'm with you there.
55:30I think I'd rather start Dobbins than Kamara. I know that's not the main part of the question, which is the Seahawks side.
55:37Just on the chance that he gets a touchdown, it feels more likely to me.
55:42But if he doesn't get that touchdown, you're getting five points and nothing.
55:46Yeah, but what are you getting from Kamara? He's been bad.
55:49But the 49ers, they're pretty beaten up up front.
55:52So maybe this is like there's a ray of hope for Dobbins.
55:56Those guys are all back-to-back-to-back in consensus, by the way.
55:59Dobbins, Kamara, and Price. Obviously, the stand-in for your example is Wilson.
56:02But those guys are back-to-back-to-back in ECR right now.
56:05Price did actually move down to RB31. Are they playing tool on fantasypros.com gives them like a 50-50 chance of playing with the limited practice Wednesday.
56:13Let's see what he does on Friday. Yeah, so that's something to keep an eye on for sure.
56:19But to your point, though, like Fitzy, like if Price is out of this game, yeah.
56:24Emmanuel Wilson, he could get 20 opportunities in this game.
56:27Like that would be insane to see. We've seen it before already this year.
56:31And he's getting the goal line work for sure.
56:34Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Let's go to the next game here.
56:37Speaking of the Broncos, Broncos at 49ers. Jalen Waddell has either had a really big game or done absolutely nothing with no
56:44middle ground through his first three games. With Denver, is this week more likely to be another stud performance or another dud, Debro?
56:51Well, let's talk about the real of it. He's done nothing in two of those three games because Bo Nix has been
56:58awful in all three of those games. So he's gotten high-end alpha target shares in two of those games outside of the
57:04week one wet fart that Davis Webb had. So I think Jalen Waddell has a fantastic game in this one.
57:11And this all just goes to I don't believe the 49ers can cover the slot.
57:15They've given up the third most yards per target, fourth most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers.
57:21You look at the coverage matchup. San Francisco's got single high at the eighth highest rate against single high since week two
57:28when Denver, you know, Sean Payton had to tap Davis Webb on the shoulder and say, hey, you remember we got Jalen Waddell, right?
57:35Since week two, Jalen Waddell's had a 40% target per route run rate versus single high.
57:40So I think this is a good game for Jalen Waddell, assuming Bo Nix can get targets somewhere in the vicinity of Jalen Waddell.
57:47Fitz, wide receiver 19, too high, too low, just right?
57:50What are you expecting? I'm at wide receiver 24.
57:53I just I don't like what I've seen out of Nick so far.
57:57And I worry that like wild inconsistency is going to be the new normal for Jalen Waddell.
58:03It gets concerning that I feel less good about Jalen Waddell every week than I did when he was playing with Tua Tunga-Vailoa.
58:10You know, it's just man, we thought he was going to be this great new toy for the Broncos.
58:15And it's just been week two. It was great.
58:18I don't know. It's too early. Maybe I'm just being too much of a wet blanket on this, but I know I'm
58:25a little concerned about what I've seen from the Denver offense.
58:28I've got him at wide receiver 19 to Fitzy and that that more of well, I'll probably have to bump him up
58:35a little bit because I still have Devonta Smith in the ranks.
58:39So Waddell goes up to wide receiver 18 or 17, depending also about what we see from Jalen Coker, if he plays or not and stuff.
58:47So like, I'm not far apart with you in the ranks, and I absolutely agree with you.
58:52Bo Nix has looked terrible this year. So he's the guys I have him behind right now.
58:57The four guys I have in front of Jalen Waddell are Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Mike Evans, Jamison Williams.
59:03And I really like the situations and the matchups for Downs, Wilson and Jamison Williams.
59:08And Evans is just going there out of respect.
59:11Are those names deeper than when you hear them like that you would strongly disagree with any of those or?
59:17No, I mean, I don't necessarily disagree with any of those names like the guys right ahead.
59:22Jalen Waddell in my rankings right now. I've got Ted O'Mcmillan ahead of him.
59:26I got DJ Moore, T Higgins. Like, I think we're living in the same area code, Fitzy and I.
59:32And could I see a big game for Michael Wilson this week?
59:36Absolutely, because I'm not scared of the Chinese corners at all.
59:39Any 12-team league, I think you're starting Jalen Waddell in a 10.
59:43Yeah, you're starting him. In a 10-teamer, you might be making flex decisions between, you know, Jalen Waddell and Bucky Irving or something.
59:50Yeah, or Jalen Waddell and DJ Moore or something like that.
59:54Let's go to Sunday Night Football. Lions at Panthers.
59:56I keep talking about this in all the shows this week.
60:00I cannot remember the last time the Panthers hosted a Sunday Night Football game.
60:04So this is going to be kind of fun to see.
60:08These two defenses, it's also going to be fun because I think we're going to see a lot of points.
60:14The consensus total reflects that sort of attitude at 50 and a half.
60:18Last I looked, is there anybody in this game that you guys want to actually be fading relative to consensus since there's
60:25so many expectations for high scoring, Debro? No, I'm not fading anybody.
60:28I think the one interesting player in Fitzy kind of brought his name up a second ago that I want to bring
60:35up in this because considering the start of the season, a lot of people are probably going to fade him as Jameson Williams, but JC Horn, IR.
60:43Mike Jackson, IR. Carolina has no corners. Also, Detroit has not been using Jameson Williams versus single high this year.
60:50He has an 11% target per route run rate.
60:52Carolina runs single high at the fifth highest rate.
60:55I think we see a bounce back game from JMO because Carolina, no healthy starting corners.
61:00Also, JMO last year against single high bread and butter.
61:03Can't talk bread and butter. Apparently, like, I mean, dude, single high last year for JMO, 22% target per route run rate, 2.31 yards per route run.
61:11So I think this is a big bounce back game for JMO.
61:15That's and I think the fantasy points data suite mentioned that.
61:19Well, they've got JMO still top 20, I believe, in expected fantasy points, even though he's like wide receiver 55 and half point PPR scoring.
61:26There is no one I am seriously fading here.
61:29I'm one spot below consensus on Bryce Young, who has been great.
61:33He's averaging 313 passing yards a game. He's thrown seven TD passes.
61:36He's QB six in fantasy scoring right now. And the Lions have given up 979 passing yards and nine touchdown passes.
61:43They've given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
61:46But there are some concerns with the Panthers' offensive line, which really struggled against the Browns' pass rush last week.
61:52Guard Damian Lewis is out with an elbow injury.
61:55That's kind of a key injury. And rookie right tackle Monroe Freeling has a concussion, so he probably won't play.
62:01Okay. That's what worries me about potentially short-circuiting Bryce Young.
62:04So I'm ranking Young as, you know, a low in QB1.
62:07I think he's, what, QB9 in consensus rankings. I'm like, is he that high?
62:12Yeah, I think so. He's either 9 or 10, and I'm one spot lower on him than consensus.
62:17He's currently 10. All right. I'm at 11. Yeah.
62:20Okay. I've got Bryce Young in QB12. I share Fitz's concern and also add, what if Jalen Coker doesn't play this week?
62:27So there are some concerns about Bryce Young. Like, Fitzy, straight up right now.
62:31Bryce Young or Jordan Love, who you got? I do have, I think I've got Bryce Young like one spot higher.
62:38Same. But if Coker gets ruled out, I'm moving Jordan Love above him.
62:42Actually, I've got him two spots higher. Matthew Stafford or Bryce Young?
62:45Fitzy. Young. What about Young or Hurts? Because Hurts is behind him in consensus.
62:50Over Hurts? Yeah. Okay. Like, Hurts, the rushing production has not been great, and I feel like he is not comfortable playing
62:56under center as much as he has been. Okay.
62:59Before we get to the next game, I need to get your guys' prop bet cheat sheet picks for Sunday Night Football.
63:06We do this every week. Fitz, I'll start with you.
63:09What's your favorite bet from the prop bet cheat sheet this week for this game?
63:14It's a three-star bet. Darren Waller going over two and a half receptions.
63:18We've got him projected for 3.1. And Detroit has been getting clubbed by tight ends this year.
63:23They've given up, I mean, tons of receptions, tons of yardage, and they have given up touchdown catches to six different tight
63:30ends, including the likes of Jeremy Ruckert and Dawson Knox.
63:33So, yeah, Darren Waller over two and a half receptions this week.
63:37Really, Debra? I should have gone to you first because you guys are hand-holding on this, and you did get to the
63:43sheet first and say that you also like Darren Waller.
63:46We can dance down the same golden path here.
63:49I'm totally with it with Fitzy. Like, yeah, Darren Waller over 26 and a half receiving yards, three-star bet, and we got a projected for 29 receiving yards.
63:58I think that projection is also going to go up depending on what happens with Jalen Coker if he's in or he's
64:05out, so you need to head and go bet the overs for both these immediately.
64:09As well as, like Fitzy's talking about, Detroit. You could go bet the anytime touchdown for Darren Waller, too.
64:15Just all the Darren Waller bets this week because Detroit has given up the most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends and
64:22the six most yards per target to the position.
64:25So, yes, Darren Waller. He might not be a rap god, but he's going to be very good in fantasy this week.
64:32Those are our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football, courtesy of the Betting Pro's Prop Bet Sheet Sheet.
64:37You find the best NFL player prop bets with the Betting Pro's Prop Bet Sheet Sheet.
64:42Quickly compare lines from leading sportsbooks against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value.
64:48Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props.
64:52All right, guys, Monday Night Football, fun game, Falcons at Saints.
64:55I'm really looking forward to this one. A couple of great receivers in this game, especially with Chris Alave and Drake London,
65:02both ranked inside the top six at the position this week in ECR.
65:06Let me get an update to see exactly where they are.
65:09Alave wide receiver for London is wide receiver six.
65:12Who do you guys like better in this one?
65:15Debra, I'll start with you. Alave. I'm just taking the better quarterback.
65:19Alave is, dude, just set your watch by him.
65:22He's freaking good to share. Yeah, I'm going Alave.
65:24I think that's fair. I also do think that Michael Penix will throw the ball maybe a billion times to Drake London in every game they play.
65:33You're not wrong. What do you think, Fitz? Who do you like better?
65:37So I've got Alave at wide receiver four, London at wide receiver five.
65:41The Falcons defense has been an extreme pass funnel this season.
65:44Opponents have thrown on the Falcons on 72.2% of their offensive snaps.
65:48No other defense has had opponents thrown them more than 68% of the time.
65:52Atlanta has faced an average of 43.3 pass attempts per game.
65:55The Falcons enter week four having given up a league-high 604 receiving yards to wide receivers.
66:00And Chris Alave already leads the NFL in targets with 36.
66:04And now he's going up against this extreme pass funnel defense.
66:07Oh, and by the way, the Falcons' best cover man, A.J.
66:11Terrell, on injured reserve. So I've got to go Alave here.
66:14But as for London, he has now played 13 career games with Michael Penix Jr.
66:19In those 13 games, mind you, well under a full season worth of football, 91 catches, 1,356 yards, and eight touchdowns.
66:25You can find stats like that with or without them tool at fantasypros.com where you can see the splits with different players
66:32in the field and what does Drake London do when Michael Penix is playing, stuff like that.
66:37You can see more cool stats like Fitz's drop there.
66:40Who do you guys like to win this game, by the way?
66:44I just think this is a really fun Monday night game, despite it being two one-and-two teams.
66:49The spread's two and a half. Saints at home are favored.
66:53I like the over 47 and a half. What do you guys make of this one, Fitz?
66:58I think the Saints are the class of the NFC South.
67:01And plus, this is going to be kind of an emotional night for them.
67:06I think it's the 20-year anniversary of them coming back and playing in the Superdome after Katrina.
67:11Good call. Yes. D, bro? Yeah. I'm taking the Saints.
67:14Shout out to Steve Gleason. I think the Saints are going to be highly motivated.
67:19It's going to be an emotional game. I think they're going to put up a crap ton of points.
67:24All right. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
67:27Thanks, everybody, for checking out our Week 4 Key Questions.
67:31Best of luck setting your lineups this weekend. For D-Bro and Fitz, I'm Ryan Warmly.
67:35We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
67:40If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
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