Fantasy Football Advice
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Jul 30, 2026
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Thu, July 30, 2026
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0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. We've done running back, we've done wide receiver.
0:04Time to go over the tight end rankings.
0:06Top 20 and this one going to be another long one. So sit back, hit the like button. Let's get things started off in
0:11tier one. Bowers, McBride, Lovelin. That is going to be the top three everywhere.
0:16Probably also in that order, but we'll go over why I think two of them are a little bit closer maybe the public
0:22thinks. But first up, Brock Bowers. 112 receptions, nearly 1,200 yards, five touchdowns as a rookie. That was the most fantasy points ever for a rookie
0:32tight end. He also set the rookie record among all players. So, not just tight ends, among running backs, wide receivers, uh record for rookie
0:40receptions at 22 years old. last season.
0:44You have, you know, that as the backdrop of as a rookie season goes into last year, the Raiders internal staff set a
0:52goal of breaking the overall single season receptions record with him at age 23. Then he starts off first game, first three quarters, five receptions, 103
1:03yards, and then gets hurt. And that was basically the end of it. Like we never saw him fully health the rest of the
1:09season. He had some really good games. I remember that one week it was what like 11 for a buck 50 and three or something
1:15like that. Um couple games where it was really high in production but you could just tell when you watched him play he
1:22wasn't 100%. You could tell at times where they're really mixing in Mayor they wouldn't be doing that if he was 100% like Mayer will will play but it's
1:31going to be Bowers as a guy getting most of that scheme usage. Um snap shares were down like you could just tell all
1:36season he was not 100%. He was playing through that knee injury. Um, this off seasonason, the Raiders, they go out and
1:42they hire Clint Kubiaak at offensive coordinator. That's a massive upgrade.
1:45Uh, Bowowers is effectively going to be their number one wide receiver. I've said this for a while now. I believe that gives him JSN level upside what we
1:54saw from JSN last season, but that you get to play him at tight end. Of course, the efficiency is going to be different.
2:00They play different positions. But what you might lose in terms of like, you know, downfield usage, you might gain in the fact that he has way more touchdown
2:09upside than JSN had. JSN had that amazing season. It was on 10 touchdowns.
2:13We could see Bowers push for 15, 17 touchdowns. He could have like a classic Grunk level season and you're getting that mid-second round. It could still be
2:22League winner even at that level of ADP.
2:25Um, I'm gonna assume that Cousins is gonna start a quarterback just because once you move to Mendoza, you can't go back to Cousins. So, unless Mendoza has
2:33an amazing summer and they're like, we cannot bench this kid. It's pretty easy for them to go out there. Say, okay,
2:41Cousins, you know, this scheme fits him pretty well, a heavy play action scheme.
2:44Um, why don't we just start Cousins? I think that'll last like a month. They'll transition into Mendoza. Uh, I think people are underrating how good Mendoza
2:53is. uh how locked in a prospect he is. I think Bowowers is going to break fantasy this year. He is easily the number one
3:00tight end. Great pick in the mid-sec round once the elite running backs are gone and taking him ahead of that next
3:06tier of wide receiver. Second tight end uh Jeremy Pride back-to-back seasons over,00 yards uh six touchdowns in his
3:16first three years and then 11 last year.
3:18So it was really interesting. We have this discussion of like can he score touchdowns? cuz he's just bad at scoring touchdowns. Um, we say every year
3:26touchdowns are highly random. Of course, more red zone usage leads to more touchdowns. And certain players have a much better chance of posting a spiked
3:36season for touchdowns than others, especially given, you know, how they're using the offense and again how they're used inside the 20 and inside the 10,
3:43inside the 5 yardd lines. But the fact of the matter is, we had a discussion literally last year of can this kid even
3:50score touchdowns and then is 11.
3:52try to draft with the understanding that touchdowns are very, very, very volatile. They were trying to force feed him the ball in the red zone and could
4:01not get him a touchdown the year before and then he scores 11 last season. Um, my worry with McBride is that people are
4:10overweighting the routes that he ran last season and just assuming that's going to continue this season. Yes, he was awesome last year, but that's
4:19because Arizona dropped back a million times. Like the top five tight ends in a routes run last season were Tyler Warren
4:26at 480, Jawan Johnson at 504, Pitts at 505, Kelsey at 511, and Trey McBride at 667.
4:37So given, you know, the offseason moves that we've seen from Arizona, making Alier one of, if not the highest paid
4:47backup running backs in the NFL, gave a ton of money. Uh, then they draft Love third overall, make him the highest paid
4:54running back in the NFL. They're going to run the ball like that. You don't make those two moves. You don't spend
4:59all that money at running back and not run the ball a ton. So, they're going to shift to a much more runheavy approach
5:06this year. Uh, they're also projected to be the second lowest scoring team in the league. And they have multiple skilled players that are good. This is a team
5:14projected, you know, bottom there with the Jets in terms of scoring. And yet, you've got Marvin Harrison Jr., you've got um Michael Wilson, you've got
5:24Jeremiah Love, you've got Trey McBride, you've got all of these players that going to command pretty strong target shares, but you're not going to score
5:31that many points, and you're going to be more runheavy. So, I just think there's a little bit more risk involved with
5:36McBride than people are thinking. Of course, the Raiders aren't going to be a top five offense, but they are projected to be better to score more points. And
5:43who is Bowowers competing with? You can kind of put, you know, Genty and Love kind of in that like same tier there.
5:49But, you know, obviously Trey Tucker and Jaylen Naylor are going to command fewer targets and a lower target share than Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson.
5:59Like, that's just going to happen. So, there's way less competition for Bowowers. Bowowers, I also just believe, is the much better prospect, the much
6:06better player in general. Um, not that McBride is bad, but that Bowowers is just, you know, the elite of the elite
6:12tight ends. Um, so yeah, I don't know.
6:15Like I I I'm fine with him. I He's definitely the tight end, too, but it's not by a lot. I think the gap between
6:22Trey McBride and Coulson Love, who we'll talk about next, is very, very thin.
6:27I would say I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Loveland over um Sham McBride, but I kind of would give an ADP. There'd
6:34be no reason to take uh Loveland in round three when you can get him in round four. Uh but yeah, if we're
6:40looking at like the difference in value there, McBride going the two three turn or Lovelin all the time there in round
6:47four. I just think that's an easy decision. Go Lovelin. So Loveland to end this tier. Um, I'm pretty much always trying to draft in round four and in my
6:55main league I would try to get him at that spot. Um, little tougher if you have a late fourth round pick, but at
7:02early fourth round it's a lot easier.
7:03Mid fourth, great spot to draft him. Uh, definitely started slow last year, but that's because, you know, when rookies miss a lot of time in camp, that is what
7:10happens. And also, Ben Johnson runs a relatively complex scheme. Uh, even Luther Burton not missing a ton of time, like he had to be ramped up. like it's
7:19just it's a scheme where rookies are not going to go out there in week one and dominate. And we talked about that last
7:24offseason. I had Lovelin as one of the must draft players, but it was the caveat that like you need to be able to
7:29hold them onto your roster until I think I said like week six or seven, right? Um it was basically I think they had a buy
7:34early in the year. So it was post buy um will know will you be able to wait that long because he's probably not going to
7:41do anything to start. It did take a little bit longer than that. So, it was a little bit unfortunate. The breakout
7:46didn't happen until later in the season, but once it did, I think people started to realize like, oh my goodness, like
7:51the upside here is insane. When he was fully unleashed, he was awesome. Uh, if you include the playoffs, his final four
7:57games last season, he had doubledigit targets in all of them. He put together stat lines of 6 for 94 and a touchdown,
8:0410 for 91 and a touchdown, 8 for 137, and then four for 56. Um, I just think he's fully ramped up. You get that
8:14basically at the end of the season, right? He gets ramped up. Luther Burton gets ramped up. These are two players that Ben Johnson also wanted. Ben
8:20Johnson didn't draft Roman Dunce. Ben Johnson didn't draft a lot of other players on this offense, but he went out specifically and he said, "I want
8:27Coulson Lovelin and I want Luther Bird because they're very um extremely talented players. Like both of them just, you know, exceptional in what they
8:35do specifically. But Coulson Laughlin, man, I mean, he can go out there and he can block, you know, a defensive end,
8:41but then he can also split out wide and beat a corner and not just like a slot corner. He can literally beat an outside
8:46corner. He can absolutely destroy linebackers, smaller slot corners. Like, he can just go out there and win. And I think that's the difference between
8:54someone in tier one, right? All these tight ends in tier one can just win.
8:59They don't need screen passes. They don't need playaction bootlegs. They don't need to be designed wide open and then create after the catch. They can
9:07just go out there and win. And that's what separates all those three from all even uh Warren, all the other tight ends
9:16here is that they can do that and they can be the number one option on their team. They can put together a season of
9:23120 receptions, 15 touchdowns that has a huge separation from everyone else. And that's why you're paying the elevator price tag for these three. And I really
9:33think for Coulson Lovelin, Ben Johnson's going to pick him to center the offense around. I mentioned, you know, being ramped up last season. That's for
9:41everyone. This was a new system for not only Love Loand and Burden also being rookies, but it was a new system for
9:47Caleb Williams and it was new system for the offensive line like like everyone.
9:51It's new. And so when you go into the off season and these guys are finally understanding the system late in the
9:58year, whole off season you're good to go and you can actually practice the timing perfectly. You're going to see them look
10:05much cleaner to start next year. They're going to add in new wrinkles that are going to be um elevating the upside of
10:11the offense. And I just think like Caleb's going to look a lot better. The offense is going to unlock a new
10:15ceiling. And this is just a team that you're going to want exposure to. And if Coulson Lovelin ends up being their top
10:21targeted player and the guy that Ben Johnson is scheming open against linebackers and slot corners and just creating mismatches across the field,
10:30you're really going to want him in fantasy even at a fourth round ADP. So again, I still think Lovelin should be
10:35behind McBride, but not by much by a very very small amount. And I would definitely keep Lovelin as a must player
10:41this year. Tier two, again, it's only Tyler Warren. Uh, but starting now on there is that difference, that difference in prospect to where I don't
10:52know that anyone else on this list has the same ceiling as this tier one. And that's why tier one deserves to be
10:59drafted as high as they are. But Tyler Warren is still great. Uh, he does get a tier of his own just because there's a
11:05really wide range of outcomes that comes with him u because of the somewhat unknowns of the offense because remember like this was the best team in the NFL.
11:14I feel like because the injury happened and then they were so bad and then they also missed the playoffs, people forget
11:21that they were the number one team in power rankings and their offense was so good and so efficient that they were
11:28just dominating teams in the first half and then they could just ride it out with Jonathan Taylor in the second half
11:33and they were just really, really good, really, really efficient. If they go back to being that, we're going to want Tyler Warren on our fantasy teams. Uh
11:41especially because Tyler Warren gets open on play action. He gets open when it's not an obvious passing situation.
11:50They can, you know, keep pounding the rock with Jonathan Taylor. He's ripping off big gains. He's being consistent.
11:56You know, the linebacker is moving up, the safeties are moving up, and everyone's biting hard on play action.
11:59That's where Tyler Warren wins. And again, that's the difference between someone like Warren and Coulson Lovelin.
12:05Cosen Lovelin, you can line up in 12, split him out into the slot, and you can just shred whatever corner or linebacker
12:12is on him. That's not Tyler Warren's game. Tyler Warren's game is much more built off of play action, bootlegs, screen passes, like getting the ball
12:20moving across the field, scheming him open, and working off of a great run game. Well, that's awesome when the offense is clicking like it was last
12:28year. If if they're not as good, they can't reach that peak, and they're not going to be the number one team in the
12:34NFL. if they can't reach that peak of being like a really really good offense, it is going to hurt him just a little
12:39bit. So, I just wanted to note that that's kind of the difference there. I do think that, you know, Tyler Warren
12:44has a really high-end ceiling and I think he's a great pick in fantasy. I just end up with him less because he
12:49doesn't have that tier one ceiling and he still comes with a relatively decent cost in draft. It's not like he's free
12:56and I would just rather go after Coulson Lovelin. Um, also when you think about who becomes that number one target, right? because we have Pitman gone.
13:04Someone has to win here. And when you look at it, you could argue it could be Tyler Warren because we don't know if
13:09Alec Pierce can actually command the target share that he was basically paid to do. We don't know how healthy he's going to be coming off the foot surgery.
13:17And we don't know if they're going to give Josh snaps on the outside. And so if they don't, it's pretty easy to look
13:21at this and say, "Well, Tyler Warren should be their number one target." I still think that DS has the best chance
13:28to kind of do that just because I think he's the most talented. the Cam win on the outside, but we'll learn that in
13:32camp. Um, but basically that's where the upside comes from. If we learn in camp that, you know, Josh Downs is not going
13:38to play on the outside and that, you know, they're going to put these highly mediocre other wide receivers on the outside and only let him play 11
13:44personnel, then we're going to want Tyler Mort a lot in drafts. But if DS is able to play in those in those sets, I
13:50don't think it's going to be a lot different from last year. I think DS could command exactly what Pitman was doing, if not more. and that it's really
13:58just going to be a repeat of last season where he's really good but isn't necessarily like a slam dunk pick where
14:03he kind of goes in that like around five six range. Tier three, uh Tucker Craft, Sam Leaporta. Tucker Craft, he tore his
14:09tours ACL uh in week nine last season.
14:13Seems to be trending in a very positive direction. We of course don't know and everything is very positive this time of
14:18year. We'll see come like mid August where he's at. Um, you can basically though like I don't like I don't care that much, you know,
14:25like and if you like him, you want negative news. I know that's weird to say, but like if you're drafting in a
14:32week and a story comes out that it's like, yeah, you know, he's going to be really limited to start the year. Well,
14:36his ADP is going to drop, but how much do you really care? Like if he's limited to start the year, just go draft like a
14:41tier six or seven tight end that you feel pretty solid's going to play in week one and perform decently well. You
14:47take that production plus what you're gonna get from craft at a now decreased ADP and that by the end of the year if
14:54you add up all the points is going to be really good and you're actually gonna get it at a discount. So if you like him
14:59don't worry about any sort of news about him like not being good to go in week one. Of course if he's like on the pup,
15:05right? If he like opens the season on IR, right? He suffers a setback like these things where it's like he might
15:11miss a month or more. Okay, now we definitely need to push back the ADP and think about a little bit more, but he's
15:18a highly efficient player. They lost Dobs, they lost Wix. Um, he was the number one tight end in fantasy before getting hurt last year. It was actually
15:26first by like nearly two points per game. He's boom bust, so hurts a little bit, but every tight end is boom bust,
15:32let's be honest. Um, but he a little bit more than normal. He, you know, has those huge games and then those pretty
15:38big duds. And he was a little bit lucky last season, right? He has six touchdowns in seven games before getting hurt. Six touchdowns on also 30
15:44receptions. That's a pretty high rate.
15:45Uh and he doesn't go like late. Like he goes in the early seven ADP. So you're not getting that discount. But what I'm
15:51saying is if news comes out that's bad, you will get that discount and so then maybe it' be a better time to draft him.
15:57Um I'm like lukewarm on him at an early seventh round ADP. You know, give me Bowowers in round two, give me Lovelin
16:03in round four, or give me some of these later options in the double digit rounds. I don't love round seven. Uh,
16:09but it's not terrible if you really think he elevates his game. Um, I personally would probably just not draft him in round seven, though. Uh, Sam
16:18Laaporta, I think I' I'd be a little bit more likely to draft Leaporta. He basically goes in the same range. Uh,
16:23it's that general um mid to late, I would say, seventh round. He goes a little bit after uh Tucker Craft. He's
16:30also coming off an injury, so he has back surgery. Um, I think it was like the herniated disc or something like
16:34that. Um, he's good to go. So, he'll start camp healthy. he unless he suffers a setback should be good to go and
16:41there's more positivity around him because it's just like he's had he's gonna have more time fully healthy like he's basically fully healthy now has
16:50that full training camp Tucker Craft I don't think you could you could say is fully healthy coming off a tornado sale
16:54on week night I just don't think that's really possible right now so um better outlook for him in his injury um overall
17:01production has been dropping though since his rookie season u but he did set a careerhigh 59 receiving yards per game last season. He just only played in the
17:09nine games before suffering the back injury. Um and 59 receiving yards per game. Like you're still going to want more than that if you draft him in the
17:16seventh round. Uh but again, this offense is going to be good. They have the easiest schedule, which means they're going to score a ton of points.
17:22They play in the dome. It's a great passing offense. Again, he will be fully cleared by the start of camp. Um it's
17:28really intriguing upside. It just feels capped. So it feels like the upside is contingent, right? Amanra is obviously the number one target on this team.
17:37Gibbs is obviously going to have a ton of target targets. JMO is going to be used plenty. I think Tesla is probably
17:44going to see more usage this season. And so if everyone stays healthy, what actually is the ceiling for someone like um Sam Leaporta? He only had two games
17:55of at least 11 half PPR points across his eight healthy games last season. He only has two career 100 yard games
18:02across 46 games. So, when you combine that with mid-round tight end, kind of being a losing strategy over time, teams just typically don't perform as well, it
18:09it's it's not easy to jump on someone like Craft, someone like Leaporta, and say like there are risk factors here, and you need everything to go right from
18:16the payoff, the ADP. I'll just say with Leaporta, like it's such a good team that like if what if Gibbs got hurt,
18:22what if Amanog got hurt or Jamal got hurt, they don't go to the secondary option. So, all of a sudden, you would
18:28see a huge target share shift over to Sam Leaporta and that could be league winning. And so he's got that in his
18:33range of outcomes. Just the base case here isn't as good as a lot of other players. Tier four, Fannon, KD, and Kyle
18:40Pittz. Uh a little bit more likely to draft this tier because these guys slip a little bit, but even still, tiers
18:47three, tiers four, just not as much of a priority for me. This is still a really good range for wide receiver. It's kind
18:54of the end of the running backs you feel good about. Uh sometimes you have missed on quarterback and maybe you want to
18:59lock one of those up, although I'd probably still be waiting. Um, but it's not really a spot where I sit there and
19:04I'm like, I got to get Fannon. I got to get Pitts. KD, we'll talk about, love him, but it's not a range where I'm
19:10like, I have to go after these guys. Uh, and so I don't end up with as much Fannon or Pitts, but we'll go over that.
19:17So, with Fannon, um, earns 100 targets in his rookie season. That's really awesome. Uh, final stat line, 72 for 731 and six. That's a really good stat line,
19:26and it didn't come out of nowhere. Of course, he wasn't drafted super high, but he was an incredible receiving prospect. Sometimes, uh, these receiving
19:34prospects from, you know, not top 10 schools, uh, were like, "Oh, yeah, he's got a lot of production, but like, will
19:39it hit?" But the production was there and so it was always in his range of outcomes that he was a great receiver.
19:44It turns out it did hit and he is a great receiving talent. U, the problem is he's on the Browns. They drafted
19:50Conception 24th overall. They drafted Denzel Boston 39th overall. Both of those two are going to cap his target share ceiling. The offense will cap his
19:58target um volume ceiling. Uh he had a very low A dot last season. So when we look at all of the um tight ends being
20:06ranked ahead of him, right? Uh Brock Bowers career 7.8 yards per target, McBride 7.5, Loveland 8.7, Warren 7.3, Craft 10.1 again very efficient but
20:17lower volume for Craft. Uh Leaporta 8.3, Fannon 6.8 last season. And you can argue like maybe it's unfair comparing a rookie season to their career numbers,
20:26but that was the role he was playing in.
20:28And number one, the quarterback isn't getting any better. But number two, with that role, like you need a role change.
20:33And that's the same thing I'm going to talk about with Pitts. It's like from what they did last year, you're going to
20:37need them to be in a different role to actually pay off this ADP. And if the quarterback hasn't improved and the role
20:43is probably not going to change, then why are we drafting him so early? Um, Fannon was really just a dump off guy.
20:50like he really was just run a couple yards downfield, catch the dump off, and just he hit because he had so many
20:56receptions. He was doing a little bit after the catch, but that is not a high upside role. It's what I talked about a
21:02little bit with Tyler Warren. Warren's in a better role, but it's like if I'm going to spend more draft capital at
21:08tight end, I want it to be someone who can literally just shred even a top corner on a team and could be such a m
21:15mismatch that they're like dominating in fantasy. I feel like Fannon is going to be very similar to some of these tight
21:20ends going three, four, five rounds later than him. So why pay the elevated price tag if he gets his targets so
21:27close to the line of scrimmage he's never getting worked down field that doesn't really create high-end upside and then again the draft conception who
21:34I love Boston who I don't love but is fine target share is going to be lower A dot Browns you just don't love it as
21:41much. Uh KD though, I love him. I love draft KD and draft uh one of the sleeper titans we'll talk about later on. Since
21:482018, he's been the tight end three, two, three, four, two, six, one, and two in adjusted points per game. So, eight
21:56straight years being top six, he's been first and second the last two years. He is coming off the torn Achilles. But if
22:02there was anyone on the planet who could come off a torn Achilles and return to their production quickly, it's George KD. Watch this kid train. He is amazing.
22:13Like highly athletic even still at his elevated age. I don't know. I feel like there's no risk. Like if he hits, you're
22:20getting easily a top five tight end this late in the draft. Sounds good to me. If he doesn't hit, pair him with someone
22:27else uh in the later options that we'll talk about here. But I love um just capturing that upside on underdog, capturing that upside in a reddraft
22:35league where you know, okay, I'm taking two. I'm not taking KD and taking no one else. But if I take KD and a likely a KD
22:43and a Gats and a KD and a Sadi, I don't know, like take two shots or do KD and like a safer option like a Dallas GD or
22:51a Hunter Henry, something like that. You know, you have a backup that is going to be fine, but you actually get that
22:57ceiling. And the problem with like Fannon is I just don't think that ceiling really exists. And so I don't want to pay the elevator price tag if it
23:03doesn't exist, but it absolutely exists for KD. And then Pitts, um I just rarely draft rarely draft him because he goes
23:11firmly in round seven. Um KD goes at like the round eight n turn. Why would I draft Pitts in round seven if I like KD
23:19more and he goes, you know, a round or two later than him? Um he was 21st, talking about Pitts here, 21st in points
23:25per game through week 13 last season. He scored 6.7 half PPR points per game in the 12 games that Drake London played.
23:33He eclipsed 12 half PPR points only three times in 17 games, but he scored 40 in week 15. And what do we know about
23:40averages? They're heavily influenced by outliers. And so he finishes six in points per game. But that was not what you were getting last season. You were
23:49mostly getting a low-end tight end, too, and then one week of amazing production when London was out. And he was good
23:56when London missed time, but you need London to miss time for him to even come close to paying off this ADP. and uh we
24:04can't account for that. So like you can't just assume that's going to happen. I don't know. I really just do not love drafting pits. He just goes way
24:11too early. I think people just see that points per game number and they don't realize it's so heavily influenced by a
24:1640point game. He really was not that good last season. Tier five, Ferguson, Concaid, and Dallas. Uh Ferguson, the snaps are locked in, so that's good. Um
24:26he's likely going to see some natural aggression in the red zone usage. He had zero touchdowns in 2024, eight last season. Probably going to end up
24:33somewhere in the middle of that this year. Um he's the ultimate floor play.
24:3882 receptions, eight touchdowns. That's awesome, right? That was still only good for 10th in points per game. How? 5.9 yards per target and a 7.3 yards
24:47perception number. Like it's not the Dak is bad, it's not the offense is bad.
24:50It's just that he is strictly like Fannon, he's a dumpoff guy. Like it's literally just two-minute drill. Dump it for five yards to uh Ferguson when Lamb
25:01and Pickkins are running downfield and there's nothing else. Dump, dump, dump.
25:03Like that's the entire offense there. He also does not go out there and just like shred against coverage. He's not someone
25:10who's going to like break out and have this huge target share. He would literally need probably multiple injuries to or probably an injury to one
25:18of Lamb or Pickkins and an injury to Flenoy as well. I just don't see it. Um, I liked him last season. Um, after
25:24watching last season, I can't really get on board as much, but if you want to do that thing where you're drafting a safer
25:30option and a more risky one late, he's totally fine. You get that safe production better in full PPR than half though. Uh, Daltton Concincaid after
25:37him. Um, going to sound like a broken record, but also don't really draft Daltton Concaid that much. Um, I love him stacking with Josh Allen. It's very
25:44easy. You take Josh Allen, you go out there and you take conc, maybe you take Shakir. Uh hopefully you already drafted
25:50DJ Moore. Maybe take a shot of Kon Coleman late. Like it's very easy to stack in that way. But all of my
25:55exposure to Daltton Concincaid comes with Josh Allen. I'm just not going to draft Concaid in a reddraft league or or not on a stack on underdog with Josh
26:03Allen. Uh career low 3.3 receptions per game last season. Um really has just struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. I think they just know he can't
26:11be in a high volume role and he can't stay healthy and so they can't give him that role. When teams game plan in the
26:16offseason, okay, who are we centering the offense around? who he designed a ton of plays to. He cannot stay on the
26:21field. He maxed out a 55% snap share last season and going into the year they were like, "Please, can you just bulk up
26:26and stay healthy?" And he still couldn't do it. You are not going to see an off season where the Bills go out there and
26:32they're like, "You know what we need is we need way more plays for Daltton Kate." They're not going to do that
26:36because they know he cannot hold up to a full NFL season, especially if they ramp up the production there. So, four of 14
26:42games, over 48 receiving yards. I don't hate him. I think the weekly upside is there, but in a seasonl long league,
26:48it's just so unlikely he sees a big role change. They have DJ Moore now. Like, it's just not going to happen. Freaking
26:52conc. Uh, then Dallas Goddard. I do like GD and I do like drafting him. 11 touchdowns last season was obviously an
27:00outlier. His prior best was five, but it's worth noting it wasn't randomly scoring from deep. He was used a lot in
27:07the red zone. And people argue that like, okay, well, that's like fluky production, like, oh, they're giving him all these like gadget plays. Well, the
27:13fact of the matter is when you had AJ Brown on the team, they still were like, you know who we want to feature in the
27:19red zone is Dallas GoddarD. And you saw it time and time again. They get close to the red zone designed play to God.
27:24And there were some that didn't even work and he didn't score. We look at targets inside the 10 yard line. He had
27:29as many targets as AJ Brown and Damonte Smith combined inside the 10. He had more targets inside the 5yd line than
27:37all other Eagles players combined. It was get in close, get the ball to Dallas. if we are not running it. And so
27:43it's not all luck when you're actually featured in that way. It makes sense that you're going to score decent amount of touchdowns. And are they going away?
27:50I mean, AJ Brown's gone and they replaced him with wicks and like rookies. Like we do we really think they're going to feature those guys in
27:56the red zone? Probably not. So he's probably going to use a lot in the red zone again. Uh and people argue you
28:01can't draft him because he misses time.
28:03But it's different from him missing time and Concaid missing time. When Concaid misses time, you weren't getting that super high-end production to start with.
28:10you were getting streaming value, then you missed time. We look at since 2021, Garner spent the tight end 8, 6, 11,
28:17six, and six and adjusted points per game. And so, you're drafting him at his perame floor. If he misses a month, who
28:24cares? It's the same thing as like Tucker Craft. Draft someone late or pick someone up when that happens. Stream them for a couple weeks, put GDR back in
28:33there, and when you look at the total production, it's going to be really good. So, if you miss out on the elite
28:38tight ends and then you miss out on George KD, uh, Dallas Cotter is the one that I'd be going after personally. Tier
28:45six, uh, this point on is more so the fly range. I don't think anyone at this point is someone that it's like, yep,
28:52locked in floor and has that elevated ceiling. Anyone drafted this point on, if they have that locked in floor, they pretty much have no ceiling and no
29:00chance to be someone who's like an actual difference maker. they can have the ceiling to blow past their ADP from like the tight end 15 or 17 to the tight
29:10end like nine. But in terms of like points per game and the production you're actually getting, no one from this point on if they have a good floor
29:17has that high end ceiling. But some of these guys it's different. Like some have good floor and no ceiling, some have no floor and a ceiling depends what
29:24you're wanting to draft at that point.
29:26Uh Mark Andrews, we'll start off here.
29:27So tier six is Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Isaiah Likely. For Andrews, um definitely an interesting pick. now likely is gone. Turns 31 right before
29:35the season starts. That is definitely not too old for a tight end, but Mark Andrews just looks older than he is. Um,
29:41you know, some tight ends age very gracefully. It seems like Mark Andrews is not one of those. Uh, set career lows
29:47across the board last season, not only in yards per game, but his efficiency fell off a cliff as well. Prior career
29:53low in yards per target was 7.5, crater to 6.0 last season. Prior worst in yards perception was 11.6 8.8 8 last season.
30:03He only gained 422 yards despite playing all 17 weeks. Uh camp reports are um I guess offseason reports camp just started. Offseason reports are that
30:13Hibner is going to have a role. Watch that in camp. If he does, team seems to really like him, especially as a
30:19receiver. I mean, what if he's just their new Isaiah Likely? Um I don't know. I just he feels like a trap to me.
30:25Like he's been a bad pick the last couple of years. Likely only leaves behind 36 targets. It's like it's not likely is leaving behind 100 targets
30:33here. Uh he leaves behind 36. Hopkins leaves behind like 39, but they drafted two wide receivers and a tight end in
30:41the first four rounds. Those guys are going to combine for more than 75 vacated targets. So, I don't know. I just I'd really draft Mark Andrews this
30:48season. And I don't draft Travis Kelce as well. I'm willing to bet against a 37y old tight end. Maybe it's wrong
30:54betting against Travis Kelce this late.
30:56Uh but you know, he ran the second most routes among all tight ends last year at 36 years old, and he still wasn't really
31:03someone you wanted in fantasy. Uh Tony Gonzalez is the only tight end ever with more than 530 receiving yards at 37 or
31:11older. Maybe Kelsey makes it too, but you're also going to need more than 530 receiving yards uh to actually be someone you're starting. um got more
31:19upside if you see an injury to Rice or Walker or Worthy, but while those guys stay healthy, it's very unlikely you
31:26actually want to be starting Kelsey in fantasy. Likely does. He does have that ceiling. Lower floor to go along with it, but I mean he signed a three-year
31:34$40 million contract with the Giants this off seasonason. 26 million of that was fully guaranteed. He was highly efficient in Baltimore. He was I mean,
31:43the whole offense is efficient in Baltimore. So, it's tough to kind of, you know, separate. Was that likely? Was that just the offense? would anyone be
31:48that efficient in that role? Um, but he was really good on a per target bas basis. He just maxed out in his rookie
31:54season actually at 60 targets. Um, so we just don't know. We don't really know how good he is. Um, I'll say this,
32:02Jackson Dart looked really good in his rookie season. Um, we don't know how good Neighbors or how healthy Neighbors is. We know how good he is. We know how
32:09healthy he is. and behind neighbors. I mean, it's it's Sllayton, Mooney, Malachi Fields, Calvin Austin, it's Theo Johnson, like not really world beaters,
32:19right? It's not like anyone is commanding huge target share there. If Neighbors recovers more slowly, if they want to ramp him up slowly, we could see
32:26likely have some games where he's the top target on this team. Uh, I just want to say, and also, I'll say this first,
32:33when a team pays that much money for someone who's not a blocking tight end, they know that. They know likely he's
32:38not a blocking tight end, so they're paying him that money to be a receiving tight end. He's going to have a role.
32:42Um, I'll just say that, uh, he's still probably more likely to be a streaming tight end this season. Um, I think he's going to have a decent
32:51role, but this is not an offense going that's going to throw over 5,000 yards, right? And when Neighbors is fully ramped up, he's easily going to be that
33:00top target. And so I really like him on two tight end builds um that you know take a shot on um honestly even even the
33:08injured guys like even taking a shot on uh KD or Craft pairing them with likely sure you don't have that that stable
33:15floor but you've taken two shots on two tight high-end tight end options odds are one of them is probably going to
33:21hit. Uh so I like those builds but I also like pairing with a stable option to get that locked in production.
33:25Someone like a Dallas Scotter with likely makes a lot of sense. uh tier seven just low lower chances of kind of
33:32hitting those ceiling and lower floors to go along with them. It's Brentton Strange, Gadston, Hunter Henry, Chica Conquo, and Kenyan Sadique. For Brenton
33:40Strange, um I just never draft him. He's ultimate floor play. So, I've talked about a few floor options here. He is
33:45the ultimate floor play. Uh four really good wide receivers on the team.
33:51Absolutely no target ceiling for Strange, no touchdown ceiling. He's fine. If you are in like a 16 team league, full PPR, and you're like, I
33:59just want to punt tight end and not mess it up. I just want some points every week, this is who you draft. Uh, but
34:05mostly you want some upside at your tight end. So, on average, he probably ends up here, but I just don't draft him
34:11very much. Gadston, much more likely to draft Gapston, but objectively a much lower floor for him. Um, that's kind of why the rankings are the way that they
34:19are. Like, Strange probably does outscore Gadston more often. I'm just more likely uh to to kind of draft Gavston for that upside, but I'm also a
34:26more risky fantasy player. Um two cases here, right? The bull case for Gatsson is he had 49 for 664 and three
34:34touchdowns as a 22-y old rookie. That's really strong. Um he had four straight gains of at least uh 68 receiving yards
34:40at one point. You love seeing that. He dropped a seven for 164 and a touchdown nuke in week seven. Um the Chargers are
34:47going to be an amazing offense, so you love that. Uh they paid Charlie Kolar a ton of money and they paid Injoku a
34:53little bit. Uh but maybe Injoku is on the decline and then Kolar in the NFL has been much more of a run blocking
34:59tight end, pass blocking tight end, not as much a receiving tight end. Uh so that's the bull case, right? That he
35:05just is their easy, you know, tight end one not going to block and use on passing situations on a great offense.
35:10He can hit highly athletic. You love it, right? The bare case unfortunately is well Kar got a ton of money in frency
35:16and the team loves him and given the scheme Kolar fits the scheme much better than Gadston does. Um and Kolar like
35:25maybe in the NFL on the Ravens he wasn't a pass catcher but when called on he's been relatively efficient in college he
35:32had over 2,000 receiving yards. He had 63 receiving yards per game in his final season as a senior. So he can catch. And
35:39so it's like well what if they just love that he can block and catch? He's almost their tight end one. I don't know. Like
35:45in this system, you got to block. This is going to be a great running system.
35:48Uh McDaniel really wants them to be a great running team. Gadston can't run block. So he's going to be out there in
35:56obvious passing situations, but they're also going to throw the ball a lot from obvious run situations on play action.
36:01If he's not out there for those, not great. So there's clear upside if he hits. Clear clear clear downside of being like on free agency in every
36:08league in week three or week four as well. uh Hunter Henry after him. Uh his final value comes down a little bit to
36:14what New England does in free agency.
36:16He's coming off the best season of his career. He was 14th in adjusted points per game. You're getting a really good
36:21discount from that point. Obviously, you're getting that discount because they brought in AJ Brown and they brought in Romeo Dobs. And so there's
36:27way more target competition. Um but if we look at who's behind him, it's Eli Ridon, right? So we have Julian Hill
36:34before uh he was going to be the run blocking tight end. unfortunately suffers the season ending knee injury.
36:40Uh so the question is is New England cool going into the season with Hunter Henry and Raridon uh and then like
36:48Reggie Gilliam also being a run blocking tight end or do they go out and acquire someone? If they acquire someone that
36:53hurts Hunter Henry if they don't he's going to start off pretty decent like Ridon's definitely going to be like ramped up as the season goes along. So
37:00Hunter Henry is that great option where if you drafted KD, if you drafted Tucker Craft and you're not confident about early season production, we'll draft
37:07Hunter Henry probably going to start decently well. Going to get you some production there. Um not like teams going to be selling out to stop Hunter
37:14Henry when you've got a decent ground game and you've got AJ Brown and Romeo Dobs and Kan Booty out there for now. Um
37:19so yeah, a really stable option, but of course no real ceiling for Hunter Henry.
37:24after him. Chicka Kongquo uh between 52 and 56 receptions each in the last three years in Tennessee. Uh he then signs
37:31with the Commanders, three years, $27 million, 16.7 million fully guaranteed.
37:36That's a pretty solid contract. Uh it's a pretty good landing spot. Uh not necessarily the highest volume passing attack, but the tight ends and the
37:44commanders are trash. Behind McLaren right now, it's Antonio Williams, Luke McAffrey, Jaylen Lane, Jaylen Burks, Donnie Brown. That's terrible. I think
37:51they got to go after Diggs or Keenan or trade for Booty like I've been saying for weeks. But that's not a lock. And
37:57regardless, even if they sign one of those guys, even if they trade for wide receiver, we're looking at a pretty strong role for Chig. Um I still think
38:06likely and Gadston probably have higher ceilings and I would prefer drafting them over Chig. Um Chig is also someone who's pretty much only winning after the
38:13catch. He is not gaining consistent separation. He's not beating linebackers and slot corners on routes. Um, so probably still gonna be more just a
38:22streaming tight end, but uh definitely a good role, a really locked in role. He's going to be solid this season. Then
38:30finally, Kenyan Sadiq. Um, I want to be in on him. Like this is the profile.
38:34This is an FFA profile, right? We want highly athletic players, especially at tight end. The the highest end production from tight ends those seasons
38:42pretty much always come from a highly athletic tight end that breaks out. uh 100th percentile speed, 100th percentile burst, 99th percentile catch radius.
38:53Like he is an athletic freak. He was a lock to go in round one. Goes in the middle of the first round to the Jets.
38:59Uh still just 21 years old. Like the long-term upside here is awesome, but he's on the Jets and he's got Gino
39:05quarterback. Uh Garrett Wilson obviously ahead of him in targets. Bree Hall is going to get, you know, 250 300 touches this season. Adonai is going to see his
39:14role expand. Omar Cooper. Uh they want to get him some touches this season. Uh so I don't really know what the target
39:20ceiling is for Kenyan Sadiq. There's also really no touchdown ceiling to go along with it. He's a rookie tight end that's mostly a losing bet in fantasy. I
39:29want to have some shares in underdog because I think especially later in the season like he has really high-end weekly potential because he's so
39:36athletic, such a good prospect. And I don't hate taking shots on him on a 210 build. But I don't think that production
39:42comes early in the season. I think it's really later on sort of reddraft league.
39:47He's probably just going to be in free agency. Probably wouldn't draft him. But I want shares on underdog. Just don't go
39:52too overweight because there's also some great picks even going behind him on underdog. So those are my tight end rankings as of late July. But as always,
40:00they're changing every single day uh to account for the most up-to-date news. So if you want to see my most up-to-date
40:07rankings at all times, see my websitethefantyadvice.com.
40:11You can also switch to full PPR. You can add in your custom settings if you're tight end premium. If you have weird
40:17settings in there, you can fully customize them. Again, the fantasy footballadvice.com. And if you want to see all those rankings for free, all you
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40:29Join at least one draft. That is it. Uh within 24 48 hours, you'll get an email from me giving you access to the
40:35rankings. All right. Friday is the quarterback rankings. Saturday is the big camp news video. you're going to want to be subscribed so you don't miss
40:42out on those. But that'll do it for this one and thank you all for watching.
