0:00Week 4 Fantasy Wide Receiver Rankings on a Friday.
0:03Don't panic everyone, Josh will be back. He had a little Wi-Fi issue.
0:07I'm wondering if it was the bank examiner about his Saquon Barkley takes.
0:11I'm sure the Wi-Fi will come back. Today we're going to do a little solo stream.
0:16We'll probably get to like the top 40-ish or so wide receivers, tier them up.
0:20And of course that leads us to wide receiver one, Jackson Smith-Njigba.
0:24He scored over 22 half PPR points in his last four healthy games.
0:28The betting markets have been 11 and a half targets.
0:31That's the first time a wide receiver has been above 10 and a half targets this season.
0:36So I think we can keep this one moving.
0:39We're going to start Jackson Smith in Jigba. Amon Ross St.
0:42Brown is up next. Wide receiver two on wide receiver two expected points this season.
0:47I went back because I remember writing about David Montgomery's on off splits with Amon Ross St.
0:52Brown. He's had nine games without David Montgomery since 2023.
0:55He's averaging 88 yards per game, 31% target. 17.4 half PPR points.
0:58And then you get to the matchup. The matchup against the Panthers.
1:02One, the Panthers offense has been pretty, pretty strong.
1:05We'll get to T-Mac in a second. But the Panthers are also down their top two corners.
1:10They both just went to injured reserve. So the Lions, once again, projected for 27 points.
1:15Fourth best on the week. Road game here, but really strong environment for Amon Ross St.
1:20Brown. Number three is Jamar Chase. Really weird week one, but since then he's been the wide receiver five in back-to-back weeks.
1:26This is going to be the highest game total of the week as well with Jacksonville.
1:31I just think it's a great matchup for him individually.
1:34He hung 165 yards with a score in week two last year, 31 to 27 victory.
1:39That's kind of like the range of scoring that I'm expecting in this one.
1:43Jacksonville also just allowed 138 yards to Jalen Waddell.
1:46Denzel Boston, who had another great game last night.
1:49He was the wide receiver 19 a couple weeks ago.
1:52Bengals projected for 27 points. We are starting Jamar Chase.
1:55Last one for the S-tier is going to be Chris Olave.
1:58Went back to the Tyler Shuck splits with him.
2:01He's been the wide receiver four on wide receiver five usage with Tyler Shuck dating back to 2025.
2:07He's the wide receiver one overall, 132 air yards, wide receiver three in yards per game at 88.
2:12And if you just watch Tyler Shuck, he just wants to throw the ball over the middle.
2:17He wants to throw the ball down the field.
2:20They don't have a freaking Travis H. He's going to be on injured reserve here.
2:25And then just this year on the small little sample here, wide receiver five and wide receiver three usage.
2:30He has a six game streak with over 14.2 expected points, six game streak with over 14.2 actual half PPR points.
2:37And then you get to the matchup. The Falcons, they just got shredded by both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
2:43AJ Terrell, their top corner. He's on injured reserve.
2:46Their top two edge rushers. Those guys aren't on the football field.
2:49So pretty bad defense for the Falcons. Their offense looks a lot better with Michael Pennix.
2:54So I think this is going to be like a little sneaky shootout in Chris Olave rounds out the S tier.
3:00On to A tier. Drake London back in our lives.
3:04He's played 13 games with Michael Pennix. In those, he had the 35% target share.
3:08He's a wide receiver two overall in usage, wide receiver one overall in usage.
3:12If you're looking at that sample since 2024, of course, he goes for 194 yards in Michael Pennix debut.
3:18Last week, he had 10 targets in that. And then I went, because I was just very curious, like, what is this offense going to look like?
3:26In the first two weeks with Cooper Rush, they were really, really low in neutral pass rate.
3:32Last week in week three against the Packers, their neutral pass rate went up to about the league average there.
3:38So that's promising stuff for Drake London. He's going to be pushed down the football field a whole lot more than Cooper Rush was ever able to do.
3:46And then the Saints defense, I would call this like more like kind of a standard environment for him.
3:52Brock Bowers absolutely lit up that secondary, like in a way that Drake London can, like on the perimeter, in the slot, just using his size.
4:00Remember Rashad Bateman, he was the wide receiver 10 against the Saints a couple weeks back.
4:05And then Drake London himself was the wide receiver 8 on wide receiver 12 usage in week 18 against them not too long ago as well.
4:13So feel very comfortable, Drake London. Thank you, Michael Pennix, for returning.
4:16Garrett Wilson, this is another awesome performance from him last week against the Lions there.
4:21He was he had those Lions DBs absolutely dancing, spinning in circles, making plays at the catch point on top of that.
4:28I think last week was the highest I had ranked him like ever since doing the show with Josh.
4:33And then I'm taking that to the next level.
4:36He's now my wide receiver 6 here. So I think he's awesome.
4:40Wide receiver 3 on wide receiver 9 usage. Last week, that was a 38% target share.
4:45I'm expecting Mason Taylor, Adonai Mitchell, Omar Cooper to miss like they did last week.
4:49And now we don't have Brees Hall as well.
4:52So we're really kind of just like taking away all the target competition.
4:56I think Geno Smith has played well. You get the Bears back in week 1.
5:00Jalen Coker was the wide receiver 1 overall against them.
5:03And then they had a rain game. They played the Eagles.
5:07I think Jalen Johnson is playing decent ball, but he's not a total shutdown corner at this point.
5:12And then Tyreek Stevenson, that's barbecue chicken. Double moves is how Jalen Coker got Tyreek Stevenson back in week 1.
5:18Garrett Wilson does that at an elite level. So I feel very strong about him.
5:23That brings me to the Stand Your Grounds picks presented by DraftKings Sports.
5:27Every game day means more with DraftKings Sports. The crown is yours.
5:31And I'm about to crown Nico Collins as a 8-year play.
5:34My wide receiver 7. He's played 41 games with CJ Stroud.
5:37In those games, he's the wide receiver 6 on wide receiver 11 usage.
5:41He's averaging 96 air yards per game. In week 1, it was the same old story there.
5:46He had 10 targets. He was a wide receiver 9, a wide receiver 5 usage.
5:51The hamstrings always make us nervous. But without Jaden Higgins, nobody else can get open.
5:55This is the team with by far the worst separation score in the NFL.
6:00The most contested targets. They really only have one choice.
6:03They can't run the ball. It's to throw the ball up to Nico Collins.
6:07And then that brings us to the matchup against the Cowboys.
6:10They just traded for Joey Porter Jr. I would not expect him to play that much if he can at all.
6:17Their cornerback 2, Kobe Durant. He's got a hamstring injury.
6:20He hasn't been practicing. Siobhan Revell. He's got a knee injury.
6:23He hasn't been practicing. So this is a really bad cornerback spot.
6:27Duran Bland does not make me nervous whatsoever. Texans projected for the 8th most points on the week at 26 nearly.
6:33We had Zay Flowers had 104 yards against them on like a couple dozen routes.
6:38He was a part-time player coming off injury. Steph Diggs was a wide receiver 8.
6:42Yeah, wide receiver 8 back in week 2 on top of that.
6:46So just an excellent spot for Nico Collins to bounce back.
6:49I would trust him as a start right away, obviously.
6:52CeeDee Lamb has been balling. Just to go back to last year, 16 games with Nico Collins from last year to this year.
6:59He's got a 25% target share in those. He's the wide receiver 7 on wide receiver 8 usage.
7:05Kind of parking him right here. Only Pukenikua and Jackson Smith and Jigba have more than 88 yards per game since 2025
7:12when he's been with George Pickens there. So he's been running hot against some pretty decent defenses with the Ravens last week.
7:18This is going to be another difficult opponent against the Houston Texans.
7:22I still think they're a top 3 defense. They have not felt it that way.
7:26Their linebackers are injured right now. And that's been kind of a soft spot most recently for them.
7:32Obviously, CeeDee Lamb can work over the middle there.
7:35But then their outside corners just been getting dunked on a little bit.
7:39I remember DJ Moore going up. Dalton Kincaid going up on them as well.
7:43So I think that this is a gettable team.
7:46Even if they are one of the best defenses, that's just how much faith I have in the Cowboys offense.
7:52They're only projected for 23 points. So that's why I have CeeDee Lamb ranked a little bit lower than usual.
7:58Up next, Parker Washington. This might be a little bit of a surprise here.
8:02Just kind of pushing this one as high as I can possibly put them.
8:06Since week 16 of last year, including the playoff games, he's a wide receiver 7 on wide receiver 5 usage.
8:12Wide receiver 7 on wide receiver 5 usage. This year, he's been the wide receiver 12 in points.
8:18I think he's looked excellent on tape. It's very obvious to me that he's going to be the focal point.
8:24He's averaging a 31% target share, 122 air yards since that week 16 game as well.
8:29So it's like targets and downfield targets. Seven straight games with at least 11.5 half TPR points.
8:34So really exciting game environment here against the Bengals.
8:37They have an awesome number one corner in DJ Turner.
8:40I think DJ Turner is going to do the Brian Thomas thing.
8:43There probably needs to be some routes against Parker Washington here.
8:47But there's a pretty big drop off from DJ Turner to the rest of the secondary.
8:52And I think that the linebackers and safeties have been very gettable on tape as well.
8:57So I think it's a great matchup for Liam Cohen.
9:00He moves Parker Washington all across the formation. This is the perfect game environment for the real breakout to hit.
9:06I'm talking about 25 points in this one. Jacksonville is projected for 24.5 points as a team total.
9:11So I'm treating Parker Washington not as a fantasy wide receiver two, but as a fantasy wide receiver one this week.
9:18Puka Nakua, like I don't know what to do exactly with this one.
9:22Obviously, when he's fully healthy, he's a top three guy for me every single week.
9:26He does face the Philadelphia Eagles. That means he's going to see some Cooper Desheen.
9:31That means he's going to see some Quinion Mitchell.
9:33Don't love the matchup, even though the spine of the Eagles defense has been gettable with Andrew Makuba at safety.
9:39Linebackers haven't been playing nearly as well. So like in hindsight, this one could be like way, way too low.
9:46Puka Nakua is back to form. He's still dealing with this hip groin hernia.
9:50Who knows exactly what it is? So I'd love to see a full practice today on Friday before I move him up a couple spots.
9:57Really tough player. But if he's not running as fast, maybe a little dock is okay.
10:02Zay Flowers. This is another one where like I want to rank him higher in the wide receiver 11.
10:08He's definitely an A tier player for me. He's ran 29 routes this year.
10:12He's turned them into 234 yards. That's 8.1 yards per hour.
10:16Like last year, JSN was like in the 4.0 range, which is like beyond incredible.
10:20And I think that there's a chance that Zay Flowers is going to do that.
10:25Declan Doyle has been doing a lot more under center offense for the Ravens here and then more play action, like true
10:32under center play action, not like little like RPO play action attempts.
10:35And Zay Flowers is going to completely cook on them, assuming he's healthy.
10:39The only reason why I have him ranked down a little bit, it's not the team total.
10:44They're projected for 27 points. You do have the Derrick Henry revenge game factor against the Tennessee Titans.
10:50And I just don't know if the Titans offense is going to make this game environment shoot out.
10:55It's like if Zay Flowers doesn't get his touchdowns early, like you could run into a situation where they don't have to throw the ball very much.
11:03So I'm expecting very run heavy game plan. Zay Flowers good enough to get home there, but that's like kind of splitting hairs.
11:10He's going to be an awesome pick this season.
11:13Tedrell McMillan is my wide receiver 12. This is like loosely assuming Jalen Coker is out with the quad injury.
11:19He's been DNP limited so far. It sounds like he has a chance to play.
11:24I just don't know. Regardless, they're facing the Lions.
11:27The Lions have been absolutely gashed by everybody. Fourth most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season.
11:32Garrett Wilson just hit him up for almost 22 points.
11:35Chris Olave did the same back in week one.
11:38I've just not been impressed with them. They're still down.
11:41All of their starting safeties, their backup safeties on top of that, they leave their corners on island.
11:46And I think Tedrell McMillan could beat average to bad corners pretty repeatedly.
11:50So that's what I'm expecting here. The Panthers are projected for 23 and a half points.
11:55So like somebody scoring a lot in fantasy, it's not going to be the Xavier Leggett who's hurt.
12:01It's not going to be too much of the other wide receivers.
12:04I do have an aggressive ranking on Darren Waller, by the way.
12:08If you guys want to go read words, use your brain.
12:11Keep that brain on. Not scroll TikTok in stories all day long.
12:15You have to actually read on occasion. And when you do read, you're going to read that Darren Waller projects very well.
12:22Link in the description down below. All my writing, all that stuff gets updated all the way to Sunday.
12:27Uh, so make sure to go read some words.
12:30Let's see. Do I want Christian Watson in the A tier or the B tier?
12:35Um, let's drop down a tier for Christian Watson.
12:38We'll go to the B tier. He's been an excellent player.
12:41Wide receiver four on wide receiver five usage. Career high in volume as well.
12:459.3 targets per game. What's happened with the Packers is they can't run the ball because the offensive line stinks.
12:51The running backs also stink. Uh, they're playing faster.
12:54They're throwing the ball more in neutral situations. Christian Watson is not just a downfield threat.
12:59They're doing like little quick outs, uh, occasional screen to them, some slant routes that provides a higher floor than we've ever seen with Christian Watson.
13:07And aside from like a couple, like 50, 50 drop balls, Christian Watson to me looks like one of the best wide receivers in the game.
13:15So I want to keep continue to rank him very aggressively.
13:18Uh, you also get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That's Vita Veya and their defense tackles.
13:23I would not even try to run the ball against them.
13:26Uh, most teams don't. Uh, so I'm expecting a lot more pass attempts here.
13:30Tampa Bay second fewest rushing yards per game. This season.
13:33Only thing in the back of my mind is like, what if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, like literally just can't move
13:40the football with an undrafted free agent quarterback. That said, Jordan Addison, top 10 Denzel Boston wide receiver 11 against Tampa Bay recently.
13:47Uh, so it's a good spot. I've actually changed my mind.
13:50Weaves Mosho. You can move him up. He's, he's also an A tier wide receiver.
13:55Sorry about that. T Higgins. Yeah, this T Higgins is the perfect B tier player.
13:59I think this is a awesome spot for him.
14:02Game environment. Like I said, against Jacksonville is right for a bunch of points here.
14:07The Cincinnati Bengals have the highest neutral pass rate in the NFL at 65%.
14:11There's definitely enough room for both of you guys to get home.
14:15He's the wide receiver 18 on wide receiver 25 usage.
14:18So far, there's going to be some massive games coming down eventually.
14:21Uh, Jacksonville, they've allowed the 11th most passing yards per game.
14:25Uh, they faced the Patriots without AJ Brown, the Broncos in the Browns.
14:29Um, so I do think it's a, it's a beatable defense teams typically also don't try to run the ball on Jacksonville
14:35because they have awesome edge rushers and defensive attacks, like physical edge rushers at that.
14:40Uh, and then I just trust a Marius Mims at right tackle as well.
14:44So not surprised Bengals project for 27 points. Typically when the Bengals score 27 or more points, T Higgins is awesome.
14:51Same exact situation for George Pickens. The difference is the Cowboys are projected for 23 points.
14:55The matchup is like actually difficult against the Texans.
14:58Uh, and just want to rewind back to 2025, including the 2026 data with CD lamb.
15:03Uh, George Pickens is the wide receiver 16 on wide receiver 11 usage in those 16 games.
15:08So wide receiver 16 on wide receiver 11 usage in those 16 games this year.
15:13He's the wide receiver 40 on wide receiver 12 usage.
15:16So the usage is the exact same from last year to this year.
15:20He just hasn't been quite as good. I think all that stuff's going to even out.
15:25It's pretty much the exact same target share. He's still getting utilized down the field.
15:29He's still going to get utilized in the red zone.
15:32Eventually that stuff will translate here. I'm not for sure that this is going to be the week where it all comes together.
15:39Cause you are talking about the Texans, by the way, teams facing the Texans have the lowest neutral pass rate in the NFL.
15:46So we'll see if, uh, it's like more of a Javante Williams game.
15:50All that said, George Pickens, way too good. Zach Prescott, way too good.
15:54Uh, I still view him as a boom bust wide receiver to even in difficult matchups.
15:59Devante Adams down at wide receiver 16, like, you know, awesome football player.
16:03This is assuming Pukinokua is out there. He just absolutely roasted Pat Sertan.
16:07I still cannot believe, uh, how well he did against press man coverage, off man coverage, zone coverage, double moves, you name it.
16:14He was excellent at the catch point. He was even running by players.
16:18I think he hit like 20 miles per hour on that little choice route where he split the safety and went upfield, uh, towards the sideline there.
16:26Uh, I'm expecting Terrence Ferguson to be out. I don't think that Colby Parkinson is going to be out.
16:32So, uh, I think they're going to get Tyler Higbee in like the Terrence Ferguson role.
16:37Uh, all that stuff just kind of gets minimized when you have Pukinokua back out there.
16:42So, uh, we'll see, this could be way too low.
16:45Um, I think that he's going to have to go up against Quinion Mitchell, who's, you know, just as good as Pat Sertan is, uh, right now.
16:53So I think he's gonna be an excellent pick for where you got him for as long as he's, as he's healthy.
17:00And right now he's healthy. Jalen Waddle. Um, this one's getting difficult to talk about because I can tell the Broncos are
17:06like, their scheme is saying, get the ball to Jalen Waddle.
17:10And then Bo Nix is kind of like turning down some opportunities.
17:13Matt Harmon's talked about this with Nate Tice and he's just getting the ball out to the check down, like way too quick.
17:20Like right before Jalen Waddle is open on some of these downfield routes.
17:24Uh, and then the, the yards per target is just way down that 7.5.
17:28His career is at 9.3. So I think he's firmly a positive regression candidate.
17:33He's also faced the chiefs Jacksonville in the Rams so far.
17:36It's like a pretty brutal opening schedule this week.
17:39You get the 49ers offense. They haven't allowed us a sack on offense.
17:43Like that team's just been putting up points on everybody.
17:46Um, so I think there's going to be like a little bit of like catch up mode potentially here for Jalen Waddle.
17:5349ers don't have Nick Bosa right now. Michael Wilson went absolutely nuts against the 49ers.
17:57We talked about that on stats versus film. Uh, but it was a lot of the ways that you can use Jalen
18:04Waddle, some screens, some out routes, some balls to the sideline on occasion, some in cuts over the middle.
18:10Like I would just try to copy paste the exact stuff that Michael Wilson was doing, uh, with Jalen Waddle here.
18:16Um, Denver is only projected for 22, uh, in a quarter points here.
18:20So boom, bust wide receiver too. I think better days are coming for Jalen Waddle, but, um, I've been a little bit disappointed so far.
18:28Let's keep Jordan Addison in this tier as well.
18:30Uh, my wide receiver 18. This obviously assume Justin Jefferson is out.
18:34He hasn't practiced quite yet. Last week was a season high 10.9 expected half PPR points without Justin Jefferson.
18:40Uh, he had multiple big plays down the field, eight targets, wide receiver 10 finish out there.
18:45Just wanted to rewind. He had multiple top 25 fantasy, uh, wide receiver seasons as a rookie.
18:50And then as a sophomore, and that was with Justin Jefferson.
18:53Like I think that the Jordan Addison, uh, upside is still a little bit discounted.
18:58And when you get the dolphins, um, on the schedule and it might be the worst secondary, uh, that I could remember.
19:05Um, and they got some young players out there as well.
19:08Uh, new schemes. There's gonna be coverage busts all the time.
19:11Jordan Aspen's like the perfect player, uh, to kind of take advantage of that.
19:16So, uh, I want a really aggressive ranking for Jordan Addison.
19:19I think I'm like, you know, 12 spots ahead of everybody on Jordan Addison.
19:23So like, you know, my upgraded, this is a Trey Tucker week.
19:27Take is probably Jordan Addison. He needs to come through for me because he was one of my highest drafted players.
19:33This off season football gives you plenty to debate before kickoff and even more to follow.
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20:10Get your picks in and follow football season all year long.
20:14The crown is yours. Speaking of Matthew golden. I know he's on all of our fantasy teams because Josh and I would
20:20not shut up about him the entire off season.
20:23Uh, the breakout season is like to me. So real.
20:26He's the wider receiver 14. On wider C for six usage, wider C for five targets per game, wider C for 15 target share as well.
20:34ESPN just dropped their tracking data, which they have this, this stat called open score and they have like, how good is your yard?
20:41The catch ability is how good are you at the catch point?
20:45They put a score together and Matthew golden's a wider C for five in that score through three weeks.
20:51He's right next to Devante Smith, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Christian Watson.
20:55He's making some incredible plays on the football. There's some like a little bit of like miscommunication issues.
21:00Uh, he's still a very young player at 23 years old, but it's like really coming together for him right now.
21:06Like I said, with, uh, Christian Watson, uh, pass first defense against Tampa Bay with B to V there.
21:12And then the Packers just have one way to move the football right now.
21:16And that's throwing the ball down the field. And by the way, Matthew golden is not a downfield threat.
21:22He's in like the Romeo Dobbs plus role. Like there's gonna be some downfield attempts, but there's a lot of slants, quick outs, occasional screen.
21:30Like there's a floor kind of built in with Matthew golden at this point.
21:34So going to be one of the best picks available this season, Michael Wilson up to wide receiver 20 here.
21:40I'm not even sure if we're going to talk about Marvin Harrison in this episode.
21:45We'll see how long I make it before tapping out.
21:48I'm going to redo this. Hairball. He went absolutely nuts.
21:51I think he's still underrated as just a talent.
21:54There's like downfield ability. He's great at the catch point.
21:57They threw him three screens last week. He had a fourth and one slant.
22:01Uh, they're using him as the isolated receiver in 13 personnel.
22:04They had a little play action route for him where he was a first read target, uh, at the goal line that went for a touchdown.
22:12There was diving plays for first downs. There's like a toe tapping plays for Michael Wilson.
22:17Like really he's, he's just one of the better wide receivers in the NFL.
22:21And last week he had 28.7 expected half PPR points.
22:24That was a seventh most by a wide receiver this season.
22:28So like that was kind of like the reminder game of what the upside is for Michael Wilson.
22:33He had a dud against the Seahawks, uh, in week two.
22:36I think maybe that game is kind of like, you know, threw us off the scent of what Michael Wilson's ceiling is.
22:43So, uh, since week 14 last year, he's had one bad game.
22:47The rest of that time, he has a 28% target share in his last eight games with Marvin Harrison.
22:53He has a 22% target share. He's the wide receiver 24 on wide receiver 18 usage.
22:57If I'm not including some of the Marvin Harrison, uh, games as well, where he missed, he is way higher than that.
23:04So like, I'm beginning to wonder if like even this ranking is way too low for him.
23:09Uh, he's the wide receiver seven in expected points this season and a good football player.
23:14Matchup is great against the giant. They got corners on injured reserve.
23:18Brian Burns is now out for the season as well.
23:21Like rookie, uh, linebackers, like definitely a defense to attack.
23:24Uh, and I just wonder if Michael Wilson's like just still ranked too low by the community.
23:29Josh Downs continues on with this tier. Uh, last two weeks without Alec Pierce, he's the wide receiver 15 on wide receiver 11 expected half PPR points.
23:37Uh, he's got this like very fun role where they're kind of sacrificing Keenan Allen to the perimeter.
23:43And then Josh Downs is in, uh, the slot a whole lot more.
23:47Keenan Allen is too slow. Laquan Treadwell, they're just too slow.
23:50And that's who he's competing with for targets there.
23:53So like all like the fun stuff in the offense is going to Josh Downs.
23:57And then that brings us to the matchup where the commander's just been getting absolutely shredded.
24:02The most fancy points allowed to, uh, wide receivers, the second most passing yards, almost 300 passing yards allowed so far, uh, this season.
24:10CeeDee Lamb was the wide receiver three a couple of weeks ago.
24:13JSN was the wide receiver one overall last week.
24:16Don T, Don Tavian Wicks was a wide receiver 15 back in week one.
24:20Just their, their cornerback play has not been good enough.
24:23Uh, and then they have some injuries at linebacker that I'm monitoring.
24:27So the Colts are projected for 26 points, the fourth best of the week.
24:31That's makes us feel really good about Jonathan Taylor.
24:34That makes me feel much better about Tyler Warren, but I would not sleep on Josh Downs as a real fantasy wide receiver too.
24:41At the moment, Debo Samuel belongs in this tier.
24:44I'm assuming Mike Evans is out with that rib injury.
24:47We'll see if he, uh, plays, but Debo Samuel is going to be in inside.
24:52Uh, he's going to be mostly avoiding, uh, Pat Sertan here.
24:55And maybe in theory they would shadow Debo with Pat Sertan, but he's just like moving around the formation too much where
25:02I don't think that's going to be as big of a deal.
25:05Uh, without Mike Evans on the field last week, George Kittle, 17 of 19 routes, Debo Samuel, 15 of 19 routes.
25:12And then like Cadero Hodge already cut, uh, Jacob Cowing, you know, Jordan Watkins.
25:16Like these are the other wide receivers like Brandon cooks, like literally off the street is going to be involved here.
25:22So, uh, we just trimmed down a lot of the players that they have to get the ball to.
25:28And, um, I think like this 15% target share is like his absolute floor in a game like this.
25:34You're getting hook and ladder touchdowns. You're going to get some choice routes out of the backfield.
25:39Uh, there's a lot of ways to kind of utilize Debo Samuel against these struggling linebackers in Denver.
25:45So, um, I wouldn't hold the Pat Sertan stuff against Debo Samuel too much here.
25:49I think he's in the inline for a pretty nice start.
25:52Let's continue with Rashi Rice. Um, really weird game against the Broncos back in week one, kind of an okay game against the Colts.
26:00Got some cheap production last week against the dolphins.
26:02It felt more like Rashi Rice was going to be involved in the game plan.
26:07He had eight targets, 12.1 expected half PPR points watching that game back.
26:11Like a couple of designed looks, a couple of like easy completions over the middle against, you know, Miami there.
26:17I don't think that he looks fully back, but he's like healthy enough to score some fantasy points.
26:23I don't think the offense is going to run through him, but this offense is projected for about 26 points against the Raiders.
26:30Um, so I don't think we're going to get wider receiver one stuff from Rashi Rice.
26:34I think just Kenneth Walker is like too involved.
26:37Travis Kelsey is holding the line. Uh, they're still doing some screen stuff to, to Xavier worthy.
26:42Um, but I think that Rashi Rice can like be just fine in fantasy, like not round three fine, but I think he's going to be okay.
26:51Uh, especially if they get more involved like they did this past week.
26:55Let's drop down a tier, uh, for Luther burden here.
26:58Um, awesome, awesome touchdown that he had in the red air design play for him.
27:02We got to keep those, uh, involved in the offense.
27:05Still don't know who's going to be the starting quarterback, uh, this week.
27:09I'm not sure if it largely matters. Like that's how good Ben Johnson is.
27:13Uh, obviously we can trust case Keenum after last week.
27:16Uh, and then they, they think that Tyson Bajan, like they were like crying at one point about Tyson Bajan, like that they might have to trade them.
27:25Uh, which is like, I still can't believe those stories from a, uh, a year or two ago.
27:30Um, but I have faith in the quarterback offensive line play caller and the Luther burden is pretty easy to get some touches too.
27:38So, uh, he had 20.4 expected half PPR points last week.
27:41That was a career high. His previous, uh, career high and expected points was at, uh, was that like at 12?
27:47Um, so he almost doubled his previous career high in usage.
27:5126% target share is a season high or it's a team high as well.
27:55So I kind of believe that he's going to be a fantasy wide receiver too.
28:00The jets don't scare me whatsoever on defense. Uh, this is an eruption spot.
28:04If you're looking at the, uh, passing EPA, uh, chart as well.
28:08Um, so let's, let's ride this high. I hope that he kind of evens things out because it was a pretty brutal
28:14stretch over like last five games before last week for Luther burden.
28:18Um, but hopefully that touchdown kind of earned some more trust there.
28:22DJ more. This is just a tough matchup. Assuming Christian Gonzalez is going to play.
28:26He's got a, a new injury. We'll see if he's going to play through that or not.
28:31Assuming that he's out there. I, I docked him a couple spots in my rankings.
28:36I think the role is going to be excellent for DJ more, uh, 11.3 expected half PPR points in each of his
28:43two healthy games back in week one against the Texans last week against the chargers.
28:47Uh, and then he got hurt literally in the end zone.
28:50So there's going to be plenty of opportunities for DJ more.
28:54The Patriots have done a good job, um, against these kinds of like boundary X wide receiver types.
28:59Um, and you know, it's been like Jeremy Bernard, Jacoby Myers, like those types of players kind of lead the team and targets.
29:06Um, so it could be more like a little bit more Dalton Kincaid if Christian Gonzalez is on DJ more, not enough
29:13to bench, uh, just enough to kind of move him down in my rankings.
29:17Steph digs, like just continues to make a lot of plays on tape.
29:21Uh, he's the wide receiver 16, a wide receiver 24 usage still has like these like awesome moments like after the catch
29:28where he's got enough juice at like the first level.
29:31And he's still like just so smart. He drew a defensive pass interference on a comeback play last week.
29:37I think that David blouse doing a lot of fun things, uh, for Steph digs in particular in the backfield, fake screens,
29:43a bunch of nonsense going on out there. In addition, just like letting him cook in isolated matchups, like little choice routes
29:50underneath the Colts have not been able to stop anybody.
29:53Uh, third most pass yards allowed per game. Uh, and you know, like Xavier worthy was a top 24 wide receiver against.
30:00Zay flowers had that crazy game in a half against, uh, the Colts.
30:04I think, you know, you can do some level of Zay flower stuff with step dig.
30:09So just trust the game environment, trust Marcus Mariota.
30:11Um, and he's looked good on tape. But league neighbors hasn't looked good on tape.
30:16If I'm keeping it a buck, um, kind of slipping and sliding.
30:20You don't see like the crazy yards after the catch moments.
30:23He had like one, uh, like kind of burst moment where he caught the ball cleanly.
30:28Uh, but I'm not seeing like quite as much explosiveness.
30:31I'm not seeing quite as much, uh, pizzazz at the catch point.
30:35And a lot of his routes are kind of like just underneath, like kind of going nowhere type of routes have not loved his involvement.
30:42Uh, last week, the giants had the lowest neutral pass rate at 29%.
30:46Uh, Malik neighbors average depth of target was one yards down the field.
30:50I think that Jameis Winston's arm is like borderline completely cooked.
30:53Uh, I'm hoping that was just the rain, but if that wasn't the rain, that's just his arm.
30:59Like it's just not going to matter here. So I like the matchup against the Cardinals don't like the team environment and
31:06Malik neighbors is not Malik neighbors on tape right now.
31:09So I think startable because he's Malik neighbors, but don't think that he's going to be the best pick in fantasy.
31:15Don Tavian wicks, my son's namesake over there. Don Tavian, uh, I think showing out for the Winks family.
31:21Um, if I'm keeping it honest here, this is assuming Devante Smith is going to miss Bo Wolf, uh, one of the Eagles reporters, really hilarious dude.
31:29On top of that, go check out his stuff.
31:32Uh, he believes that Devante, uh, Devante Smith might, uh, miss multiple weeks here.
31:36So like Makai lemon's available, go pick them up.
31:39And then I think Don Tavian wicks is going to be startable.
31:42No Dallas Goddard still as well. And Zachary is not going to be earning a bunch of targets here.
31:48So they have no choice. They're going to have to throw the ball to Don Tavian wicks as the number one wide receiver.
31:55Devante Smith's been the wide receiver 23 in usage as the wide receiver to Devon, uh, Don Tavian wicks been the wide receiver 47 in usage.
32:03I think that that number is going to come up.
32:06Uh, you get the Rams defense, a very good one, a very well coached one makes me nervous.
32:12Uh, they still have Trent McDuffie. I can see McDuffie and wicks going at it for a large part of this game.
32:18And I think that McDuffie is just a caliber player above Don Tavian.
32:22So don't love the matchup. That said, the Rams are not going to have Jalen Watson.
32:27They're number two corner. No miles Garrett. Aaron Donald hasn't practiced that much.
32:31He hasn't been the same level player as well.
32:34I think the Eagles are going to try to run the ball like right at the Rams who play kind of light,
32:41uh, in the shorts a little bit. Um, but the reality is Don Tavian wicks has been more or less an intermediate and downfield threat.
32:48And the Eagles have a 20 point team total where they get in the red zone.
32:53They don't throw the ball down there. So, uh, I liked on TV and wicks as like a wide receiver three start.
33:00I don't want to get too carried away. Um, because, uh, there's a lot of negatives still in the profile that brings us to old Jameson Williams here.
33:08So I wanted to spend some time on this one.
33:11Um, on my little website that I, that I've built to help out for my, my research, um, in the show, uh,
33:18I have like their last 10 games. And I think this is a kind of a good way to kind of look at this.
33:25This is just the reality of the situation. It's going to be dud, dud, dud, dud, dud.
33:30And then he's going to finish as a top 10 wide receiver, um, multiple times in a row.
33:36You can't get too high on them. You can't get too low on them.
33:40The one big change is the Sam Laporta stuff.
33:43So I looked this thing up. Since 2025, when Sam Laporta has been on the football field, Jameson Williams target share drops
33:50to 16% without him on the football field. That's 21%.
33:53And then where his targets come? It's 11 yards, uh, down the field with, uh, Sam Laporta.
33:58It's 14 and a half yards without Sam Laporta.
34:01So it's fewer targets and the targets are more downfield.
34:04I'm okay with downfield targets. It just makes, makes your weekly floor a whole lot, uh, harder to hit because the ball is harder to catch.
34:12Um, in the games with Sam Laporta, he's been the wide receiver 55.
34:16Uh, and then, uh, with Sam Laporta or without Sam Laporta, it's expected half PBR points at wide receiver 16.
34:22So very clear splits with Jameson Williams. I still think that he's going to be a low end wide receiver three.
34:28It's just going to be very up and down.
34:31And that brings us to the matchup. The Panthers just placed both their top two corners on injured reserve.
34:37I think the rest of their defense has been pretty beatable this season as well.
34:41They're projected for the 27th most points. I could see a, you know, downfield touchdown in this one.
34:47And then I talked about ESPN's, uh, analytics for their, like their little, uh, metrics in the shoulder pads.
34:52Jameson Williams is wide receiver two in open score wide receiver two overall.
34:56So like I've noticed him on tape running the same type of routes, winning those routes.
35:01The ball just not got to him. He's dropped a couple of passes, but I do think big days are coming.
35:08I really don't think that much has changed here, except that he's just going to have to operate a little bit more down the field.
35:15So, you know, that's just what the situation is with Jameson Williams.
35:19It sounds exactly like the rest of his career.
35:22Terry McLaurin continues on here. Uh, awesome game from him in isolation.
35:25Uh, just winning over the top against Josh Dobe.
35:28He's a great fit with Marcus Marietta. By the way, Marcus Marietta has the highest average depth of target over the last couple of years.
35:36He's a backup quarterback that just wants to push the ball down the field.
35:40He knows the system. Obviously, if you watch that game against Seattle.
35:43Uh, so I think that Terry McLaurin is going to be a totally fine player, even with a backup quarterback.
35:50Uh, the Colts corners have not been so great.
35:52Sauce Gardner versus Terry McLaurin will be like a pretty even matchup, I'll say.
35:57And, uh, I just think that the wide receiver 20 usage, wide receiver 18 targets per game so far, uh, is enough
36:03to have some faith for Terry McLaurin, even without Jaden Daniels.
36:07He's also like a positive regression candidate just in general.
36:10Like even after last week, like he's still not scoring as many fancy points, uh, as he should.
36:15And I think that Terry McLaurin looks the same on tape.
36:18So boom bust wide receiver three. That brings us to Devon Bailey.
36:22And I actually want to keep him in this tier as well.
36:26Look, the Saints just want to pass the ball like crazy and they want to push the ball down the field.
36:32They're still number one in neutral pace. Devon Bailey has been the wide receiver 22 in expected points.
36:38He's been the wide receiver 25 in actual points.
36:40Uh, you can see three games in a row here where it's almost the exact same usage across the board.
36:46Startable usage that is. And then I was looking at the hashtag data here and the Falcons defense has allowed the highest
36:53neutral pass rate allowed their depth pieces at edge rusher are more physical types.
36:57And they got a decent linebacker play without AJ Terrell.
37:00Their weakness is actually in the secondary and like pass rushing in general.
37:04So teams have been passing the ball at over a 65% rate in neutral situations against the Atlanta Falcons.
37:10That's even like more reasons to believe in Devon Bailey as not like this like interesting storyline, but like someone we can
37:17actually trust as a wide receiver three. So he's kind of like an underrated player.
37:21One of my sneaky starts of the week. And then I hate to do it to you, but Keenan Allen, I think
37:28is kind of just going to be an annoying play.
37:31Um, so this week, like I said, the commanders, they have absolutely stunk on defense.
37:36Uh, the Colts projected for 26 points now, uh, in London, he had 58 yards against Washington last year for what it's worth.
37:43But really just to me, this offense is like, just like too good, uh, to be like, you know, stagnant and all
37:49of their passes are going to be underneath without Alec Pierce, which means I think there's gonna be more dropbacks because when
37:56Alec Pierce is rolling, those are like 40 yard chunk plays when they work.
38:00Uh, or they just punt the ball this styled offense.
38:03And I remember watching with the Texans game last week, it just get the ball out really quick.
38:09And that just means there's gonna be more pass attempts involved in the offense.
38:13So last week he was the wide receiver 18, but on wide receiver 13 usage, he was, he had nine targets in them.
38:20He's scored a touchdown, a little shallow cross against those vulnerable Texans linebackers right now.
38:25Um, so obviously he's competing for targets against Josh Jones, Tyler Ward.
38:28Those guys are way better than he is, but I think there's going to be enough volume here for Keenan Allen to
38:35kind of be like an annoying wide receiver three for like, you know, if your team's injured or there's by weeks.
38:42Um, so, um, he should be rostered. I think that brings us to lad McConkie.
38:46I'll drop down a tier. I don't know if he's going to play.
38:50Um, new injury is a foot injury. He was a limited participant on Wednesday and then did not practice on Thursday.
38:56So I don't know how to calibrate this one, uh, except that the, the dang chargers are projected for 17 and three quarters points against the Seahawks.
39:05Um, like there's just not, there's nothing optimistic I could say about anybody on the chargers this week.
39:10Jacoby Myers. This is just the game environment that you want pieces of absolutely, uh, highest game total of the week.
39:17Uh, Brian Thomas is just not earning targets. He's not even earning playing time at this point.
39:22Jacoby Myers. I don't think that he is like that good, but all of these little crossing routes over the middle of
39:28Trevor Lawrence been just throwing them up and he's been scoring some touchdowns here.
39:33Um, I think he's going to see some DJ Turner, but man, he already has finished as the wide receiver 25 and wide receiver 16.
39:40Uh, and last week his usage was at a wide receiver 20 level.
39:44So, uh, game environments too good for, for Jacoby Myers to not be in the flexible wide receiver three range.
39:50A mecca, Buka. Um, look, I get us being more optimistic on Jalen, uh, Jalen Daniels, uh, than other undrafted free agents.
39:57Like there's like actually some starting experience here, uh, at Kansas.
40:00He's got a live arm from what I've watched, uh, and they just rave about how smart he is.
40:06And at the same time, it is an undrafted free agent rookie starting, uh, in week four, uh, Greg Rosenthal pointed this out.
40:13This is the earliest in the season in NFL history that an undrafted player has started at quarterback.
40:19So, you know, it's just the, there's no floor with a mecca, Buka.
40:23Um, I still think he's the focal point of the offense.
40:26Like when I go back and look at the play designs from Tampa Bay, they're still doing some fun stuff with him.
40:33Uh, he's had 8.8, 8.8 and 8.7 fantasy points.
40:35So he's kind of like held this like wide receiver three line.
40:39And that was when Baker was playing like total ass.
40:42So, you know, I think more of the same for a mecca, Buka, uh, they're projected for 18 points this week.
40:48Um, Packers defense, I think is a little bit feisty as well.
40:52Gannon does some interesting things. Like another reason to feel a little bit skeptical of the Tampa Bay this week.
40:58Um, so a mecca is like definitely not a must start at this point.
41:02That brings us to Makai lemon. Um, they just have not used him correctly in my opinion.
41:08Like all of the screens have not gone anywhere.
41:10They just don't have any tight ends or wide receivers that can block for him.
41:15And then I think Makai lemons best on like out routes.
41:18I think he's best on seam routes. He's got more contested catch ability than most slot wide receivers.
41:24He's got a little bit more physicality than most slot wide receivers.
41:27I think we're going to have to get into that, uh, this week without Devante Smith, without Dallas Goddard.
41:33This is a pure projection as well. Uh, he's going to face against a really good, uh, Rams defense as well.
41:40He's going to see some Trent McDuffie. I really don't like his odds against him.
41:44Uh, he's not a super explosive player. So I don't think we're going to see like 50 yard plays from him necessarily.
41:51Uh, but if the Eagles are trailing to the Rams here, I can see Makai lemon sneaking up getting seven, eight targets in this one.
41:58So desperation play. He at least has to be picked up.
42:02I know he's available in a lot of leagues.
42:05Um, because the Devante Smith hamstring injury, uh, Bo Wolf was already projected him to miss a couple of games here.
42:11And he's been on the ham on the injury report with a hamstring for many weeks in a row now.
42:17So, um, Makai lemon, a must, uh, add player if he's available.
42:21Malik Washington was somebody that we were talking about as a must add on the, uh, stats versus film.
42:26When we were talking about waivers, he's been cross training out running back and wide receiver.
42:31They only needed two active running backs last week because Malik Washington could be a backup.
42:36He looks like Devon HM, um, stylistically. So I think that he's going to get very involved in the offense.
42:42He's a wide receiver 21 and expected points already wide receiver 16 targets per game wide receiver at 19 and air yards
42:49per game wide receiver nine in target share. I watched him stack, uh, first round corner, man sort of lane on tape on a vertical route.
42:57Malik, uh, Malik Willis, uh, missed him of course, but, uh, there's something here with Malik Washington.
43:02Um, the Vikings against, uh, the dolphins like that's, that's going to be a complete bloodbath most likely.
43:08But, um, sometimes the Vikings are like, okay with like little quick outs and then rallying to tackle.
43:13That's kind of what Malik Washington does. So like if anyone's going to get home, it'll be in a PPR scam.
43:19And I do think that Malik Washington by far is my highest rated dolphin.
43:24Uh, and then for the backfield real quick update, Jalen Wright's going to play.
43:28He was number one listed on the depth chart.
43:31If you're starting Jalen Wright or Aldi Gordon this week in fantasy, like just log off, take a walk.
43:36Don't turn the TV on on Sunday, go hit the gym, go do something productive.
43:41Like you have no chance against the Vikings defense.
43:44Khalif Raymond, uh, and we're probably just like throwing names up at this point.
43:48Josh does a good job of this. Uh, Khalif Raymond, uh, then I have Portland Sutton, Roma Dunze, Trey Tucker, um, you know, Romeo Dobbs type.
43:56So let's just hit the bears wide receivers real quick.
43:59Khalif Raymond is been playing good football, uh, the last two weeks.
44:03And that's, I'm using that sample that the real sample because Roma Dunze is like playing full-time snaps at that point.
44:09He's been the wide receiver 53 and the wide receiver 38 and expected points.
44:13So that's enough to have some like wide receiver for faith.
44:17And then he's just been very good. Um, he knows what he's doing out there.
44:21Ben Johnson, obviously trust him. He plays in half of the 12 personnel sets.
44:25Uh, he plays in the slot when they're in three wide receiver sets.
44:29He can sit in zone coverage. Uh, so, you know, there's a little bit of a PPR thing going on with him.
44:36He's a wide receiver 19 and a half PPR scoring so far bears projected for 23 and a half points.
44:42Um, look, I think you can do worse than that.
44:45And then for Roma Dunze, we got to catch the football.
44:49Like, I don't know what else to say here.
44:51Um, he's had 10, uh, most recent games. He's gone under his expected half PPR points in eight of them.
44:57Like he's just not living up to how involved he is in the offense.
45:02Like it's as simple as that. So he's got to catch the ball more.
45:06I still think he looks fluid on tape. I can't explain how bad he is at catching the football.
45:12Um, 87% route rate last week. You know, the bears sold awesome offense.
45:16He's still way too talented to be this big of a bus.
45:19Uh, but you know, at some point we got to prove it.
45:23This has been, you know, eight weeks in a row where he's finished with like around five half PPR points.
45:29So really unfortunate there. Uh, Corlin Sutton, Trey Tucker.
45:32Like, I think we know what we're signing up for deep, uh, plays down the field.
45:37And then Patriots, my top wide receiver is Romeo Dobbs.
45:40But like, you know, Matt Collins has been outpacing him.
45:43So we can't talk about these guys. Uh, and then Marvin Harrison, Jesus, let's end it there.
45:48All right. Um, that'll do it. This was an outlier week.
45:51Josh will be back. You know, the rankings episodes will be Josh and Hayden, assuming our wifi gets fixed here.
45:57So with that, we'll see you guys on Sunday morning.
46:00Go read some words over on Yahoo. I'm updating my rankings all the way through Sunday morning there.
46:06Uh, and good luck this week. Peace.
