0:00The Week 4 Running Back Rankings are here. Hayden and I go through, again, his top 40.
0:05And by the way, if you picked up Ollie Gordon on your waiver wire and hoping to start him, skip to the final 30 seconds of this video.
0:13Spoiler alert. No, I mean, we go and tier it out from S tier down to D tier and the S tier
0:19is about six names deep this week. A tier, a little more than that, nine names deep.
0:24And then we really dive into the matchup based conundrums and maybe some disappointing players for the opening three weeks.
0:30And if they turn it around here in week four.
0:33So stick around. We talk through every single fancy relevant player for you on this episode of Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh and Hayden.
0:40Your week four running back rankings are right here.
0:43And Hayden, I think there are 15, 16 teams projected for over 23 points, including some that really haven't hit that total on a weekly basis right now.
0:51So like this might be one of the better, I think, offensive environments of the season so far.
0:56I can't wait. It's been a heck of a year, a confusing year, but one that we're going to try to get right from here on out.
1:04Because as you always say, this is a forward thinking program.
1:07It is. And the other thing I noticed doing my rankings is once you get to about running back 20, we get into some really, really tough rankings.
1:15I think there's gonna be a lot of disagreement here.
1:18So I think we're gonna try to settle that today.
1:21But I took some pretty big stances this week versus I have in previous weeks.
1:25I think that's what's gonna happen as we get a little bit more data, but also a little bit more confusion as players get injured.
1:33Should I recite my tight end stat for the 15th time this week?
1:37I like it. The tight end 17 is outscoring the running back 25 in points per game right now.
1:42So keep that in mind with some of your flexes and those conversations.
1:46You can pick up someone literally off the waiver wire at tight end if he's in, you know, 12 personnel sets, and
1:52he might be a better option than running back 25 on this list.
1:56But we move. And I mean, these first three are locked and loaded.
2:00Jameer Gibbs, S tier at the Carolina Panthers. Sunday night football.
2:03The Lions have a team total of 27 and a quarter points.
2:06Panthers defensive line has been gashed at times. Yep.
2:09But especially in the pass rush, they are not quite as good.
2:13But Jameer Gibbs, I mean, the move that he put on the Jets last week was sensational stuff.
2:18And it truly is. Hey, let's give him 75% of the work and magic is happening on a weekly basis.
2:24He has a ninth most half PPR points by running back for the first three games in NFL history.
2:29If he keeps up this pace, he would break the fantasy points record, which set by LaDainian Thomason.
2:34So like this is what we were expecting. This is what he's done.
2:38Like you said, the Carolina Panthers been getting gashed on the ground here.
2:42Second most fancy points for running backs on the most efficiency.
2:45So I have my expected points model, the actual points, the biggest gap at defense is the Carolina Panthers against running backs.
2:52So smash spot as usual. And I think I saw that Cade Mays might be getting closer to working back at the center spot.
2:59And that's important because the Lions have already dealt with some offensive line injuries, but done a decent job up front.
3:05Okay. Bijon Robinson is your running back to still an S tier here.
3:08This is at the New Orleans Saints. It's a whole new world for the Falcons with Michael Penix at quarterback.
3:14With that said, the Falcons are at 22 and a half points right now, which is much better than they were with Cooper Rush.
3:21Yes, definitely. So he's cleared 25 half PPR points in six of his 10 most recent games.
3:26That's that's ridiculous. He's played 13 games with Michael Penix.
3:29Now going back to the late 2024 over that timeframe, he's the RB one overall with Penix at 22.6 half PPR points RB to usage as well.
3:37So that's how he closes the gap to towards Jameer Gibbs versus, you know, the games with Cooper Rush there.
3:43Yeah, I totally agree. Look, the first two weeks, despite Bijon's incredible week one, when he was the entire offense, it looked
3:49like there was going to be this sizable gap between the running back one and two and three.
3:54It still might be a large gap, but the running back two and three, I think are a bit closer than maybe we expected.
4:01After that, go ahead. The Saints defense is getting pretty good.
4:05There's more data to suggest that they're actually a pretty formidable unit.
4:08I think the Chase Young individually is playing really strong, but only one running back's cleared over 21 half PPR points dating back to 2025 against the Saints.
4:16And Bijon only had 43 yards scoreless in the week 18 game last year as well.
4:21It's not enough for me to scare up Bijon, obviously, but just something to keep in mind.
4:26Like Saints defense, pretty solid. And while Bijon is the running back four in points per game on the season, he's still scoring over 23 points per contest.
4:34So at times we get so focused on, okay, where he's at according to the other running backs.
4:39Those guys are still the, you know, upside legendary season on those trajectories.
4:43And if that continues, then if we get four of those names, that is incredible.
4:47Because typically we search for one guy over about 21 points.
4:50I hope you guys watch stats versus film. But if you haven't, we started the show with this like crazy ADP chart.
4:57And I color coded it where most players look like they're worthless.
5:00But the reason why I did that is because I wanted to highlight just how important nailing your first and second and third round picks are.
5:08And there's a couple of guys that have done that.
5:11And like those guys are completely carrying fantasy teams.
5:13Well, Ken Walker III is that name at the one-two turn.
5:17He is your running back three. I'm also going to put him in S tier.
5:21I'm sure that's fine with you. This is at the Las Vegas Raiders.
5:25I mean, he is just at the top of the list when we talk about force missed tackles and 10 plus yard runs.
5:31It was also on my radar that he is near the top in terms of success rate as well among all running backs.
5:38And that just shows you how much an environmental change can change a stat like that.
5:43When in previous years with the Seattle Seahawks, if people held a negative against Ken Walker III, it was he was a
5:49less efficient, lower success rate style runner. I mean, just watch the games.
5:53I would suggest to people for that. This year, he's RB5 in carries, RB6 in receptions per game.
5:58And the Chiefs offense is a seventh in points per drive.
6:01They're fifth in projected points here. He's only coming off the field largely in blowout wins.
6:06And right now, right now, the Raiders are only expected to lose by four and a half.
6:11So like in theory, this game should be fairly close here.
6:14And in theory, that should mean a lot more Kenneth Walker usage.
6:18This is a division game on top of that three.
6:21You know, like this game's like this is a big deal to the Chiefs here.
6:25So I wouldn't be surprised if he gets more touches than he did last week against the Dolphins.
6:30Yeah, I think he has or 75% of Emmitt Johnson's touches this year have been when the Chiefs are up by 10 plus points.
6:37That makes sense. It makes total sense. Jonathan Taylor at the Washington Commanders is your running back four.
6:42This is slightly higher than consensus rankings who have him as the running back six.
6:47Is he also S tier, the new member of your Death League squad?
6:51Or are we dropping down to A tier and these three guys are in a world of their own?
6:56Let's keep him here. I think that Jonathan Taylor is in an excellent spot.
7:00I just don't want to panic over, you know, games against the Texans.
7:04Like, you know, wasn't the best game for Indianapolis.
7:07And there's another game recently for Jonathan Taylor against the Texans didn't show up every other game.
7:11He's been excellent with Daniel Jones available going back to last year and this year.
7:16He's the RB1 overall RB3 usage. He's averaging over 100 rushing yards, 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game.
7:21I don't think he's going to hit those numbers exactly with Alex Pierce.
7:25I think there's going to be some on off splits.
7:27It's just not as drastic as it was last week against an elite defense.
7:32So the Washington Commanders have been pretty decent. Yep.
7:34Durante Jones. Yes, definitely. So at the same time, Frankie Lubin didn't play last week.
7:39Leo Chennault, their other linebacker, he's going to be out, I think, I'm assuming, for the rest of the season with neck surgery there.
7:46So they're on to their fourth and fifth string linebackers.
7:48Sonny Stiles is amazing, but he's also a rookie out there.
7:52So I think totally gettable environment for Jonathan Taylor here.
7:55I think I saw that Lubu is returning to practice, but that doesn't mean he's necessarily going to play this week.
8:01So just something to keep in mind. Another thing we're going to watch here is what I brought up in stats versus
8:07film about Alec Pierce's on and off splits, or I'd say Jonathan Taylor and the rushing attacks on and off splits without
8:13him on the field where, you know, their second yards per carry, fourth in contact per attempt, before contact per attempt, I
8:20should say, with Alec Pierce on the field and then off of it, that drops down to 30th and 30th.
8:26But like you said, we might be working with small samples here and they faced the Houston Texans last week.
8:31But again, this gives us another layer on top of that.
8:35And the reason I brought up Durante Jones is while he's not blitzing as much as Brian Flores, who we coach with
8:41the Minnesota Vikings, we have always attributed difficulty to run on the Vikings front, even if they're not loaded up there with, you know, linebackers and defensive tackles.
8:49And Jones seems to have taken a little bit from that system.
8:53And the commanders are doing very solid in that area to start the season.
8:57I just looked up NextGenStats has eight plus defenders in the box rate.
9:01In week three, it was 21% for Jonathan Taylor.
9:03The rest of the season, it was 20%. It's like this is something where I think largely that was just you're facing
9:10Demil Hunter and Will Anderson and the rest of it's noise.
9:13Totally fine. And I mentioned the Death League yesterday in Stats vs.
9:16Film. You all wanted updates on that. Hayden spent $451 of his $1,000 budget on Jonathan Taylor.
9:21I was the next offer at 404. Hayden also spent $285 on Trey McBride.
9:25Hayden is now left with $11 for the remainder of the season, but has the highest projected points.
9:30Meanwhile, I'm second in projected points with 11 teams to go, but I still have $609 of my budget.
9:36So this is going to be fascinating. We'll track this all year long.
9:40And again, like I said, we're definitely going to do some Death Leagues with the community next summer because I'm having a blast with it.
9:47And it makes waivers more fun than it ever has been for the last decade.
9:51Oh, yeah. Christian McCaffrey vs. the Denver Broncos is your running back five.
9:55S tier? A tier? Where are we going? I wanted to go bold.
9:59I want to do an S tier for Christian McCaffrey.
10:02This is just like a trust the tape play for me.
10:05First of all, it's expected to be a close game three-point favorite here.
10:09For the 49ers, they've been excellent. Number one EPA per play.
10:12Number one in success rate. But the reason why I wanted to bring up the tape is the Denver Broncos linebackers have been absolutely targeted.
10:19We saw that with Sean McVay last game here with Kyron Williams out in the slot doing little choice routes, quick outs, that type of stuff.
10:27And it was very, very successful. Kyron Williams also had a great game on the ground.
10:32And then, rewinding to the first couple games, Kenneth Walker and Bejal Tootin were just breaking so many tackles against these linebackers.
10:38It's the weak spot of the unit right now.
10:41No John Franklin Myers on the defensive line for the Denver Broncos.
10:44Jonathan Cooper still has been silent with the domestic abuse allegation.
10:47So I think this is a great spot for Christian McCaffrey to step up in his usage in general.
10:53They didn't need him against the Rams. He was cramping.
10:56Didn't need him against the Miami Dolphins. Had an excellent game against the Cardinals last week.
11:00To me, going into this game, this is the first time they really, really need him.
11:05Especially with Mike Evans, I'm guessing he's not going to play in the rest of their injuries.
11:10Yeah, great points. They're projected for 25 and a quarter points still against the Denver Broncos defense.
11:15I will add that through three games, and it's only through three games, CMC is the running back seven, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per contest.
11:22Last season, he averaged 22.3 when he was the running back one.
11:26So we're getting about a five-point difference here right now, but that can kind of be attributed to week one when he was only at 11.3.
11:33And like you said, maybe some closer games means more CMC.
11:36And this is kind of the first time it's really going to be tested since that week one performance against the LA
11:43Rams, how much Kaelin Black is going to play in kind of these closer contests.
11:47Okay. Derek Henry is the running back four in consensus rankings, but this week he's the running back six for you.
11:53This is against the Tennessee Titans, a true revenge game.
11:56Are we putting D-Hen in that spot in the A-tier?
11:59I mean, the Ravens are projected for the most points.
12:02I'm going to go S-tier for Derek Henry as well.
12:05Big S-tier this week. Big S-tier. And obviously, you know, it's Gibbs and kind of everyone else.
12:10But all these elite running backs are in excellent spots.
12:13The Ravens are projected for the most points. They're expected to win by 11.5 points.
12:17I posted a chart just looking at like game scripts.
12:20And based off like the neutral pass rate of the team, which the Ravens right now are the most like run-heavy team in the NFL.
12:27And then point spread and the most run-heavy team expected this week is obviously going to be the Baltimore Ravens here.
12:33Now, the reason why he's below, and what you said, I'm a couple spots below.
12:38I think the reason why I'm a couple spots below is because they're on like their third string center, which is, you
12:44know, their first round guard who's really never played.
12:47Yes. Center. And then Ronnie Stanley's been in and out of the lineup.
12:51I would say by far the worst offensive line for any of these top six running backs is the Baltimore Ravens.
12:57The advantage is you have Lamar Jackson next to you, which opens things up.
13:01So it's that reason to panic. But if you're going to nitpick these guys, Derek Henry's matchup, you know, Jeffrey Simmons versus
13:07interior lineman, I guess like that's the reason why I'd be down a little bit.
13:11You might disagree on this. I am seeing some woe is me.
13:15If I didn't get the number one pick in drafts this year, then I'm already playing from behind.
13:20I would posit that the best spot would have been the 11th or 12th pick.
13:25And you go Ken Walker, the third and Derek Henry, like that strategy would be winning more so than Jameer Gibbs.
13:31And then like the one to turn or the two, three turn players at that was like Nico Collins, George Pickens, AJ Brown.
13:37Obviously, there are other great players in like Trey McBride, Kyron Williams, Devontae Smith, Jeremiah Love in that round three area.
13:43But like one two at the one on one and one two at the one twelve.
13:48If you just did the combo of Ken Walker and Derek Henry would be massive to start the season.
13:54I looked back at some of my teams. I have a couple of JSN with Kenneth Walker teams like those.
13:59Oh, my gosh. Yeah, the Titans are one of two teams remaining that have yet to run an offensive play while leading this season.
14:06So, yeah, that continues here. Like we're expecting with the Ravens, then yeah, Derek Henry to the moon.
14:12All right. Now we drop down. It's pretty obvious.
14:14Now, James Cook is coming off a sensational game, a 2025-esque game here for James Cook.
14:19Facing the New England Patriots this week, what are you expecting in week four for him?
14:24The role is the exact same as last year through three weeks.
14:27He's averaging 1.3 receptions per game. That's RB 33.
14:30And at the same time, he's top 10 in carries per game and rushing yards per game.
14:35He's going to lose some goal line touchdowns. But the Bills have so many goal line attempts because they're an awesome offense
14:41that, you know, you could live with the Josh Allen push touchdown because later on you're going to get one from James Cook.
14:48Also, efficiency on the ground has been excellent as usual.
14:51They had four or five returning starters, the same head coach or the same play caller on offense.
14:56And he's been ripping explosive plays. We haven't seen like the 60-yard touchdown.
15:00That's absolutely in his bag here. The Patriots have been very, very good against fantasy running backs dating back to last year.
15:06That was against a terrible schedule. And last week, Jaguars running backs combined for the third most points of the week against the Patriots.
15:13And then James Cook also had three touchdowns 100 yards his last game against the Patriots.
15:18So I'm like largely throwing out the Patriots elite run defense.
15:21Even though they have two awesome defensive tackles, there's like more to that.
15:25And they're expected to win by nearly a touchdown.
15:27Let's talk Jeremiah Love. He's your running back eight.
15:30This is at the New York Giants, easily the highest he is ranked heading into a game so far this season.
15:36Hayden, what stood out to me is for a player that we think has a lot of flash and pizzazz and explosiveness,
15:42he has the ninth best success rate among all running backs with 25 plus carries so far this year.
15:48That says to me that he can still grind it out like he did against the San Francisco 49ers.
15:53He's tough running, muddy, you know, lanes attacked by the linebackers and was spinning off and trying to get those hidden extra few yards.
16:00Yeah. And that's great to see for a guy who handled 26 touches in week three.
16:05That's kind of the difference between like a 214 pound back versus like a 200 pound back.
16:10I think like those additional couple yards are helping him out.
16:13The Cardinals offensive line is like, I think, largely fine.
16:16It's not great. It's not terrible either. I think it's totally fine.
16:20He was a little bit dancey to me, but the juice when he's dancing is like so evident.
16:25And he's going to be ripping off some huge plays here any second.
16:29So I think the matchup looks really strong as well.
16:32I don't trust the Giants offense on the other side with Jameis Winston.
16:35No, they're still looking for like high quality defensive tackles.
16:38They got a rookie linebacker. I really like Arbel Reese.
16:41We're kind of new to the position as well.
16:44They won't have Brian Burns on the other side here.
16:47The Arizona Cardinals projected for the 14th most points above 23 above average projected offense here.
16:51And he did not come off the field last week pretty much like and on the time they got Tyler Algier the ball.
16:58He got a little screen on or a ball in the flats and like he just couldn't move.
17:03Like so this is the status quo. And I think for the rest of the season, he would be at least a top eight running back.
17:11And then in the easier matchups like maybe this one, that's when we get to see the real explosives.
17:16You know, yep. Excited to see it. Chuba Hubbard is next for you.
17:20He's running back 14 in consensus rankings, running back nine for you.
17:24This is against the Detroit Lions. I will add that Damian Lewis, the Panthers left guard, has already been ruled out for week three.
17:31He was easily their best offensive lineman against the Cleveland Browns.
17:34And yet, maybe without Jalen Coker, who knows, and Xavier Lee get and all this type of stuff, the Panthers are still
17:40projected for nearly 24 points at home on Sunday night football against this Lions defense.
17:44So does that make Chuba A-tier or is this a small A-tier we're moving him to be?
17:49No, I think this is A-tier. They're projected for 24 points still.
17:53And the Lions defense is just totally gettable. I don't like all the injuries the Panthers have on both sides of the ball.
18:00But they're projected for 24 points. And he pretty much doesn't come off the field.
18:04And let's say they are trailing. First of all, remember like Travis Achan in the first week.
18:09He finished the top 24 fantasy running back, which sounds insane after the next couple games.
18:14But he did that because he caught like a career high in receptions.
18:17I think that Chuba Hubbard could backdoor into that because they're not going to have A.J.
18:22Dillon if they're trailing. Chuba Hubbard wouldn't come off the field at that point.
18:26So it's kind of like game script, independent, volume-based player.
18:29And then he's also been quite good efficiency-wise. Obviously, it's going to stink not having Damian Lewis out there.
18:34But man, he's the RB9 on RB15 usage. And he had a season in 2024 where he's the RB12 on RB7 usage.
18:41Like, he is right on this RB12 border every single week.
18:44It's time for the Stand Your Ground picks presented by DraftKings Sports.
18:48Every game day means more with DraftKings Sports. The crown is yours.
18:51And after multiple weeks of Chuba Hubbard, the name this week, the old name this week, is Aaron Jones.
18:57He is your running back 10. Consensus rankings have him as running back 17.
19:01And Hayden, we talked about great matchups. There is none better right now in the entire NFL than the Miami Dolphins.
19:07And that's exactly who Aaron Jones faces. I want to read you this Kevin O'Connell quote quickly.
19:12We would love to have him in there for every single snap if we could.
19:16It's just we're putting a lot on him right now and he's handling it.
19:20We're trying to navigate it to make sure that he's the lead back.
19:24So DJ Dallas is the other option. They just signed Devin Neal as well.
19:28So Hayden, I think we're having another week where Aaron Jones is going to see 80% of the workload at least.
19:34Yeah, at least. I mean, he pretty much doesn't come off the field.
19:38There's a couple of Claiborne runs where I thought there was a wide open hole that he didn't hit.
19:43So it's just not going to happen with those type of players.
19:47They are expected to score 24.5 points. The Miami Dolphins, they're not going to put up any points against the Vikings defense.
19:53And right now the Vikings are like the most run heavy team in the NFL through the first three weeks.
19:59Like, is that not going to change like here?
20:02Like he's going to he's going to have 20 plus carries in this game.
20:06They're most likely going to be pretty efficient. The Dolphins defense, they have a couple like interesting players, but it's largely like,
20:12you know, an ACC defense at this point. He was the RB 15 on RB 22 usage over the last two weeks.
20:19Over that time period, the Vikings are dead last in success rate at 28%.
20:23They scored 16 points per game in those contests.
20:25He was still a top 15 running back. Like what happens when they're actually a good offense, not the worst offense in the NFL.
20:32Yep. I love all those points. Just looking for the future.
20:35When Jordan Mason comes back from his thumb or hand surgery, whatever it is.
20:40I wonder if they're like, hey, Aaron, you can rest a little bit now.
20:44You know, you've been carrying the workload for the last four weeks.
20:47I understand you've got 80% work. We're just going to give you like 40% here for the next few games and like
20:53give you a little bit of a break. We can sell high on Aaron Jones after this next week.
20:59And then I think buying low on Jordan Mason right now is pretty, pretty ripe.
21:03I mean, Aaron, his hamstring is just waiting to tear right now.
21:07But until that happens, we're riding it. Jalen Warren is your running back 11.
21:11One of your favorite picks the entire summer. The Browns and Steelers, though, are two teams right now without a rushing touchdown so far this season.
21:18The turf monster prevented Jalen Warren from hitting that mark last week.
21:22Yeah, I'm still upset over that turf monster. But since week two, without Rico Doudal on the field, he's played 93% of the snaps.
21:29So they don't have anyone else that they can trust.
21:32This is supposed to be a close game in division, short rest.
21:35They're not going to be, you know, mixing in another running back on short rest here.
21:40It's just all Jalen Warren. I think he looks excellent.
21:43He's always been getting protection. He can always catch passes.
21:46I think he's by far the most explosive player.
21:48The Browns defense has been pretty good in general at stopping opposing running backs.
21:53But at the same time, like he's not coming off the field.
21:56He was a top 10 running back last week.
21:59Like, I don't know how this goes wrong. I'd also add that the Steelers offensive line looked very good last week.
22:05Brock Hoffman at right guard. Max Einacher at right tackle.
22:08We already talked about the McCormick stuff at left guard doing a forklift on the nose tackle.
22:13So it's creative bunch right now. It is. And I'll add that three running backs have gotten at least 15 touches for the Browns this season.
22:20I think two of them were like 19 and 22.
22:23So the Jalen Warren volume might be, again, close to a career high.
22:27Yeah. Looking at the projections right now, he's projected for 101 and a half total yards according to live betting market.
22:33So fire him up. This is Thursday Night Football.
22:36We'll talk about Quinchon Judkins here in a moment.
22:38Again, it might be a sleepy one with this Steelers and the Browns.
22:42But anything you want to say about the wide receivers or quarterbacks or even tight ends involved?
22:47DK Metcalf, Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion, any of that stuff?
22:50Yeah. DK Metcalf, I have him as my wide receiver 33.
22:53Like, I'm holding on to some of that volume.
22:56I haven't loved what I see. And he's been sacrificed to, like, some really good corners.
23:00And I'm expecting that to happen here with, you know, Denzel Ward.
23:04We just watched what Denzel Ward did against Tedrow and McMillan.
23:07And I think McMillan and DK Metcalf are, like, you know, in the same ballpark.
23:11And I'm expecting largely the same. Now, I don't think that they're going to get that much from Michael Pittman.
23:17Roman Wilson and Jeremy Bernard have both dropped passes for interceptions this season.
23:21So I think there's, like, a limit to how much they're going to get those guys involved.
23:26It's just not an easy matchup for DK Metcalf against Denzel Ward.
23:29So he's my highest-ranked wide receiver. Then you have Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion.
23:33They're dealing with some injuries in the secondary for the Steelers with, I think, Jalen Ramsey now has a wrist issue.
23:39Joey Porter probably not going to play. He has a broken wrist, he said.
23:43Okay, yeah. So he's not going to play. Joey Porter's probably not going to play either.
23:48Actually, Jalen Ramsey said he's going to try to play through it.
23:51Okay. Well, good luck trying to tackle Casey Concepcion then.
23:54Now, these guys got to catch the ball. That's why they're ranked so well.
23:58Yes. Now, Casey Concepcion, and I talked about the stats versus film.
24:02I actually think the tape is pretty awesome. Yes.
24:05You know, the easy button stuff should be there.
24:07It's just inaccurate passes. Literally, the worst throws that Deshaun Watson has had all season long have been in the direction of Casey Concepcion.
24:14I don't think it's the rookie's fault. So we'll see.
24:17It's just the inconsistency that you have to worry about.
24:20Okay, let's move on. Kyron Williams is your running back 12th.
24:23This is at the Philadelphia Eagles. Both Kyron and Blake Corum are top four in yards before contact per attempt.
24:29That kind of speaks to this Rams offensive line so far this season.
24:33Yeah. Also, just they don't make any incorrect decisions as well.
24:36Like they're just like so smart. And Sean McFay is just using them appropriately.
24:40Still waiting on the Puka Nakua news. Right now, I just think in my mind, I'm kind of expecting Puka to miss,
24:46Terrence Ferguson to miss, Colby Parkinson to miss. Like they're going to be reliant on Devontae, Kyron, Corum, and then I think Tyler Higby here.
24:54Whenever they lose, like you always say, Kyron Williams gets targeted.
24:57They've lost or played in overtime in a handful of games.
25:00He's averaging 4.4 targets in them. They would motion out to the slot last week in a close game as well.
25:06Now, the Eagles defense, it's a good one. It's not quite as good as I remembered it being.
25:11And Jalen Carter, I was listening to the Eagles reporters.
25:14He's just playing through injuries right now, and he's not going to be himself for a little bit.
25:20They got Jonathan Grenard at edge rusher back last week.
25:22But they're just making too many mistakes. The spine of the defense isn't quite as good right now.
25:28So I think it's a difficult matchup. It's not the worst matchup.
25:31Rams are projected for the 16th most points. So that's why I have him ranked a little bit lower than where he's been finishing.
25:38Yeah, the Eagles have had to get younger at linebacker and safety because they couldn't give contracts to those guys in order
25:45to pay some of their other defensive linemen and certainly the offensive players.
25:48And so, you know, I don't know if they would have paid N'Kobe Dean, but Jihad Campbell stepping in there has not been great.
25:55And then we know about the young safeties on top of Makubo was just heavily targeted.
26:00This might surprise people or it might not. Like the Rams are three point favorites on the road against the Eagles in this game.
26:07So yeah, just keep that in mind here. Yeah, just a slower pace game.
26:11Like it's not projected for that many points. That's the problem.
26:14Ashton Gentry is running back eight in consensus rankings and running back 13 for you.
26:19Uh, he has the third worst success rate of any running back in the NFL with 30 carries only.
26:24Dave Montgomery and Quinchan Judkins are worse. And then despite having the six most carries in the league, he ranks 18th in
26:30carries to go for 10 plus yards. It's not so the RB five against the dolphins.
26:35And then he's been the RB 25 and RB 20 against the chargers and the saints.
26:40I think it's just going to probably be right in the middle of that for a large part of the season.
26:46I think that the Mike Washington stuff, like I don't want to get like completely, um, carried away here, but I do
26:52think it's like real enough that there's gonna be like change of pace moments for Mike Washington.
26:57And like that could expand just a little bit, uh, as like, you know, Mike Washington keeps making plays and Gentry's kind
27:04of, he's not plotting, but my favorite would be, he's like, you know, the closer to like the Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs
27:10tier of running backs and like the truly special ones.
27:13Uh, and then that brings us to the matchup.
27:16Like it's Steve Spagnuolo and they added a bunch of young defensive linemen.
27:19I think that they're playing pretty on fire. Uh, that defensive line over there, the, the Raiders are projected for the 22nd most points as well.
27:27So a lot of the running backs that we just mentioned are projected for a lot more or they like literally do not come off the field.
27:35So he's an eight tier player. He can be moved up a couple spots, but I don't think that he's an S tier one.
27:42Yeah. I wonder if in the receiving game is where he's going to get maybe the majority of his opportunity and production this week.
27:49Just, just something to, to keep in mind with that.
27:52Okay. Deandre Swift is your running back 14. We're still going to an eight tier.
27:56I mean, I think Swift still belongs in eight tier here.
27:59I mean, he already has the second most carries inside of the 10 yard line, which is 10 among all running backs
28:06so far and has two touchdowns on them. Um, you know, they still threw the ball and leaned into that.
28:11And while the jets have some pieces, I think it'd be easier for him to run the ball against the jets and the Eagles.
28:18Yeah. And the week before that, it was against the Viking.
28:22So this is just a far easier matchup for Deandre Swift.
28:25You believe in the floor now with case Keenum versus like the mystery box going into last week as well.
28:31The bears project for 23 and a half points.
28:33The thing I'm like watching for is was the Kyle Manung guy split last week.
28:38Was that because of injury? Was that because of revenge game?
28:41Was that just a random kind of sample? Because Deandre Swift played more.
28:45He played the first snap on seven of nine drives.
28:47It's typically every other one. And he did play a lot of the first quarter of that game, got both of the goal line attempts.
28:55So he's been like in this split, like last week's split was like more favorable for Swift.
29:00Was that noise or is that going to be a trend here?
29:03Chase Brown is next for you. Is this still a tier or are we dropping the B tier?
29:08This is against Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's go. This would be the last one in a tier for, for Chase Brown.
29:14He's, he's a positive regression candidate, but I don't love the matchup.
29:18Yeah. I mean, there've been some differences like in his production this year versus where it was last year.
29:23Like right now, I think he has a target share of about 10.7%.
29:27According to fantasy points data. Um, that's 15th among running backs.
29:30That was around 16% last year when the, in the season stretch.
29:34Um, if you extrapolate that for the entire season, that would equal about 35 fewer targets on the year, which is extremely notable.
29:40Yeah. And to me, it's notable, especially in this game, because it's going to be difficult, most likely to run against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
29:47And they're again, big, long athletic defensive lineman. And so I would like to think that his receiving work can improve here.
29:54I will say his past pro has been really, really good.
29:57Just open the season. In the preseason, I was writing that they don't throw him any screens anymore.
30:02And when, uh, T Higgins and Jamar chase are out there, he doesn't catch as many passes and catch as many passes
30:09with, with burrow compared to like the Flacco games either.
30:11So I was expecting his receptions to come down just a little bit versus last year.
30:16Uh, unfortunately the Jacksonville defensive line is just awesome.
30:19They were third best defense against fancy running backs last season.
30:22They've averaged 58 rushing yards per game to running backs this season.
30:25That's the fourth best. Um, so he just needs the volume and he needs that goal line touchdown plus a couple of
30:32receptions to kind of save his day. Uh, good news is the Bengals, even though it's a good defense in Jacksonville are
30:38still projected for 27 points, which is the fourth most.
30:41It's like a half point away from being first overall.
30:44So like I'm just riding the environment, even if I don't like the matchup, they're still projected for the fourth most points.
30:50Like you just said, that that's a lot versus a really, I think, talented defense in the, uh, in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
30:57Okay. That brings us to cam Scadaboo. As the first name in the B tier, you would think on paper, Hey, this
31:03for against the Arizona Cardinals preseason, that'd be one of cam's got his best performances.
31:08And it's possible. I will say the giants are only projected for 21 points.
31:12That is bottom third of the NFL. And so far he's about the running back 21 in points per game through three weeks.
31:18So what are you expecting for stat man here in a week four?
31:22Well, the last two games, his reception totals have come back to where they were during his rookie season.
31:28And like, that's what I was missing from the week one performance where they obviously hand them the ball against Dallas, uh, all game long.
31:35And that worked well, but Scadaboo being out there and Devin Singletary being healthy, scratched, I think is a net win for, for Scadaboo.
31:42I don't think that Najee Harris looks good. He has gotten a goal line carry, but Scadaboo got the goal line carry this last game.
31:49Um, so yeah, over the last two weeks, he's been the RB eight and expected points.
31:54And last year he was kind of a top 12 player and expected points.
31:58Now this, this offense is worse, but this defense isn't very good in Arizona.
32:02Um, it's, it's not that dissimilar to the Ashton Gentry stuff.
32:05Like team totals almost exactly the same. They're going to catch three passes or so in this game.
32:10Uh, neither of them are like game breakers in terms of big play potential.
32:14And then, uh, they're most likely to get all the goal line work.
32:18So you feel better about Ashton Gentry versus Cam Scadaboo.
32:21They're not that dissimilar. So I like Scadaboo is like maybe like a little bit of an underrated RB two right now.
32:28Let's talk Javante Williams. Uh, is that the Houston Texans?
32:30So, you know, he's going to get almost all the work and in games where they're project for 26 plus points, he
32:37would rank inside or at your running back 12 spot.
32:40He's running back 17 here because the Dallas Cowboys on the road again, against this Houston defense projected for just under 23
32:46points and our two and a half point underdogs.
32:49Yeah. And you know, there's a million stats I can list for the Texans defense.
32:53How, how good they've been. Um, they've already faced Jonathan Taylor, James Cook and Chase Brown.
32:58None of them scored a touchdown. They're averaging 87 rushing yards per game to opposing running back rooms.
33:03Despite facing Jonathan Taylor, James Cook and Chase Brown already.
33:06So it's like the worst matchup in fantasy. Um, Javante Williams, like you're flipping coins.
33:10Is he going to catch a touchdown or not?
33:13Uh, and in the meantime, averaging 3.3 receptions per game is like pretty strong to like give him some semblance of a
33:19four, but definitely teared down from where he typically is.
33:22Let's talk Saquon Barkley. So we did it a lot in stats versus film.
33:26I'll just repeat that where, you know, he had loving carries for 73 yards in the first half.
33:32He was being given space. Uh, you know, once he's given space, he still has the juice.
33:36He still has ability and it's quite clear to the eyeballs.
33:40Uh, unfortunately the defense faltered and the passing game faltered to the point where the four runs in the second half didn't go anywhere.
33:47And they kind of just abandoned it after that.
33:49Uh, my buddy friend Duffy posted that Saquon has posted an average speed of 11.22 miles per hour and crossing the line of scrimmage this season.
33:57That's the second fastest mark of any running back.
33:59Yeah. Uh, with 25 plus carries that on the 20 carries when he isn't touched behind the line of scrimmage, he's gained eight yards per carry.
34:07The third most of that same group of running backs.
34:10Unfortunately, this is the environment that he's in, not just from a run blocking standpoint, but it kind of seems like a
34:16defense that may be a tick down, uh, and a passing offense that is having the same issues as it was last year.
34:23So if that's the case, then despite him still being maybe 90% of what he used to be, we're not going to
34:29get the huge upside where I think a couple of seasons ago, Hayden, you would have gotten to like that Monday night
34:36football game or Sunday night football, whatever it was.
34:38And like in the second half, they would have just grinded out like 20 carries and like walked off with a win.
34:45And we just like, don't get that version of Philadelphia.
34:48Um, yeah, on top of that, you're always going to have the tish push issue where he's got to score his touchdowns
34:54from four yards out or otherwise they're going to go to Jalen hurts.
34:58So that that that's pretty painful. And then he's averaging one catch per game.
35:02Um, so far. Um, yeah, so he's, he has to hit the explosives and he he's capable of doing it.
35:08I think the offensive line last week looked a little bit better than it typically had.
35:12Um, but not enough to like really treat him well.
35:15So like just looking at this, like he's far more likely to have a 40 yard play versus Cam Scadaboo and Javante Williams.
35:22But at the same time, like who's more likely to get the goal line touchdown.
35:26It's like kind of weird to say it, but it's kind of the other ones over Saquon.
35:31So I think it's the right tier for him.
35:34Eagles are only projected for 20 and a quarter points.
35:37I don't know the last time I saw the Eagles projected for that low of a total.
35:42Yeah, I don't know. It's yeah. The game flow probably isn't in his favor in this game either.
35:47Football gives you plenty to debate before kickoff and even more to follow.
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36:20Get your picks in and follow football season all year long.
36:23The crown is yours. But let's talk about facial tootin.
36:26Let's get positive. Okay. Because it's a magnificent world that we live in that Bachel Tootin is stacking these performances.
36:32I dove into some of his underlying metrics here, despite having the worst yards before contact per attempt in the NFL tied with Ramondre Stevenson at 0.5.
36:40Bachel Tootin is second in success rate. He's also third in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt.
36:45He's also third in missed tackles forced per attempt.
36:48So, you know, we talked about the quotes all summer from Liam Cohen that all he cared about was efficiency and creating yards on his own.
36:56That's exactly what Bachel Tootin is doing, despite maybe some hit or miss offensive line play.
37:00And so he just continues to stack these performances.
37:03Yeah. He's breaking all these tackles. He's such an awesome athlete out there.
37:07And it's translating. He's limiting his mistakes on top of that.
37:10But he's still not getting all of the high value touches.
37:13Like he's the RB 30 in receptions per game.
37:16And, you know, Chris Rodriguez had a goal line carry.
37:19He's not going to get all of them, but he's going to get, you know, a large chunk of them.
37:24They just don't have to throw the ball to the running backs in this offense when they have all these wide receivers and tight ends and whatnot.
37:32So he's a very, very explosive kind of like between the 20s type of guy right now.
37:37Uh, and I trust that in this offense because they're projected for 24 and a half points.
37:42Once again, it's like, it's just such a stable environment for him.
37:46Even if the offensive line isn't good, like this team is just going to be marching down the football field way too often.
37:52So, uh, I think it's an awesome RB too.
37:55I think it's going to take some time for him to like get out of this tier, but like, this is a
38:01slight win for if you drafted it. Yeah. I mean, he's a running back 13 right now in points per game.
38:07So, uh, you know, he only has one touchdown on the season and that was last week and it was gifted to
38:14him by his quarterback, but Hey, I am still waiting on, you know, the explosive play.
38:18And when we get explosive plays, then that vaults him, you know, into top 12 running back status in that week.
38:25So right. Being on that fringe of running back one, two right now is, is I think really promising.
38:30Um, okay. Let's talk David Montgomery. He is your running back 20 right now.
38:34We've talked so much just the summer draft season in the opening three weeks about despite him scoring three touchdowns in week
38:41one, it was three yards per carry. And then 1.8 yards per carry in week two.
38:45I don't know what program or radio show that Dan Graziano spoke on, but everyone aggregated.
38:50He said, quote, my sense is that the Texans will give Woody marks more work moving forward.
38:55So this is already a 50 50 split in terms of snaps.
38:58Uh, this is kind of already happening. Is it not?
39:01It is. This is a discussion for another day though.
39:04Uh, because I want to be positive on David Montgomery this week because they get the Dallas Cowboys.
39:09They're projected for 25 and a half points. Nico Collins being back is going to afford David Montgomery more goal line opportunities.
39:16Uh, because Nico Collins is that important to this team.
39:19Uh, the Cowboys, they're relying on a lot of rookies right now.
39:22I think all three of their rookies actually look pretty good between, uh, uh, Lawrence and, uh, Barham and obviously Caleb downs as well.
39:29Uh, was nasty last week against so much fun.
39:32He was awesome at Michigan. Um, but it's a lot of rookies and there's been some communication issues.
39:37And I think that there's been some questionable coaching decisions for, for Dallas's defense in general.
39:42So like, I don't want to completely ignore how bad David Montgomery has been behind this really, really terrible offensive line.
39:48But of all the weeks, this week feels a little bit better to be optimistic for David Montgomery.
39:53So I hear you and I've agreed with you the entire time on like what I'm watching from this backfield, but this is an awesome week.
40:01And they also get Ed Ingram back, the right guard and the right guard has been a problem.
40:06Not that Ed Ingram's like some awesome player, but he's better than what they have.
40:10So, um, if the injuries break, break their way, I think that he can be totally fine as an RB too.
40:16Just for you, Hayden, I'm going to make Dave Montgomery the cover man for the thumbnail.
40:21Good. Good. Just for you. Good. Uh, okay. Braylon Allen.
40:24Does he belong in B tier? Does he belong in C tier?
40:27This is at the Chicago bears. I think he's kind of the same player as the guys we just talked about.
40:33I think that he's a B tier player. Um, the jets are projected for 20 points exactly.
40:38So not that far off from some of the teams we just mentioned as well.
40:43He played 84 of 88 snaps without Brees Hall on the field this season.
40:47Isaiah Davis has been available for every game. He has not played an offensive snap yet.
40:51That will change now. Uh, but I would expect Allen to get what 80% of the value from this backfield.
40:57And through the first three weeks, the jets running back room is at 20.1 expected half PPR points.
41:02If you give him 80% of that at 16 expected fancy points, let's say he's bad.
41:07We drop that down to 13 fancy points. Like that's as low as I can get.
41:12And 13 fancy points is an RB two all day long.
41:15So I don't think that Braylon Allen's that good.
41:18Um, but if you're going to be on the field that much, it doesn't matter.
41:22Okay. Bill Krosky. Merritt is going to be the first name in the C tier here.
41:27This is against the Indianapolis Colts. Um, unfortunately Washington running backs have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 53% of their runs this season.
41:35That's the third highest rate in the league. I did go back and watch that Seattle game and I think it's showed some flashes for Bill.
41:42You know, um, I'm not going to say, Hey, this guy is going to end up as the running back 20 or
41:49running back 18 for the entire season. But as we know, after that group of awesome running backs to start, then Chuba
41:55Hubbard, there really hasn't been a big hit in drafts other than Aaron Jones, uh, so far.
42:00And maybe Bill can get there, uh, in this game.
42:03That's a broad. I saw the same thing. I thought he had a good game.
42:07The 48 yard touchdown, uh, being called back really like kind of hid how good he was.
42:12Um, and that was not because of like a holding that was just like a legal formation on the other side of the field.
42:19So it was a great play for him. Uh, Rashad white had a shoulder injury played through it and they signed Austin Eckler.
42:26Like I'm waiting for like more information on that.
42:29I'm also waiting practice yesterday or today. One of the two.
42:32Yeah. And by the end of the week, we'll have this one sorted out.
42:36They're playing in London, uh, here as well. Um, so we'll see if they like who's flying out for that game and whatnot.
42:43Um, and then the Colts linebacker play has just been really bad.
42:46Like maybe the worst in the NFL. The Otsu Latu was like walking off the field.
42:51I think it's just a chest contusion injury, which you'll probably play through, but like that would be a big deal if he missed some time.
42:58Uh, and then, you know, Derek Henry and Kenneth Walker both had 150 total yards.
43:03Um, and they're projected for 22 points. So I didn't think he could be like, you know, a nice flex play the rest of the season.
43:10I would call him like a buy low flex.
43:13His numbers haven't really been there, but I, I, I see the vision.
43:17Um, and the fact that they have two starting quarterbacks, like provides like a season long floor as well.
43:22So I like Ja'Cory has like the RB 25 moving forward.
43:25Just to update all that, uh, the injury report came out 19 minutes ago.
43:29Rashad White DNP with a shoulder. Unfortunately, Sam Cosme DNP with a throat and concussion.
43:34So we'll see what that means. Yeah. I don't know if he has like strep throat and a concussion, but, uh, throat slash concussion.
43:41Who knows? Um, and yeah, Jaden Daniels was limited.
43:43He has a new brace on and he might be playing this week.
43:47So we'll see. Can we just wait another week?
43:50Yeah. Is Marriott not fine enough? Marriott is perfectly fine.
43:53You know, let's leave Jaden in America. It doesn't have to go all the way to London and let's see him the week after.
44:00I hear you. Okay. Let's talk Bucky Irving. I'm kind of surprised he's all the way down at running back 23 for you.
44:06Now I get it. It's a backup quarterback. We don't know what to expect here from Jalen Daniels, but it's against the Green Bay Packers.
44:14He's not on the injury report right now. You know, he's one of, I think three running backs, uh, with at least
44:20a 10% target share in every game so far this season.
44:23Um, I think with a backup quarterback, Hayden, they might lean even more into Bucky Irving this week.
44:28Yeah. I'm just worried that it's just not going to be that effective.
44:32I'm going to protect for 18 points. That's, that's 29th in the NFL.
44:36Um, Bucky also didn't play after getting lit up in pass protection.
44:39And, you know, that makes me a little bit nervous.
44:42Uh, you know, it was a hip injury, the shoulder, like who knows exactly what's going going on, but he was like,
44:49I guess benched or injured, whatever we want to call that.
44:52So that that's like another kind of wrinkle here.
44:55Um, I'll also just like wonder if, are they ever just going to get Kenny Gainwell more involved?
45:00Like otherwise there's like burning, like there's burning that contract, like on fire.
45:04Like I just don't understand what was going on there.
45:06I think just zooming back out, like he's projected for the same amount, the same amount of points as Quinn John Judkins,
45:13you know, where's Quinn John Judkins been finishing? Like, you know, it's not, it's not as an RB too.
45:18So, um, I'm trying here. Well, one of your biggest stands on the week is Alvin Camara.
45:23Yep. Running back 36 in consensus rankings, but running back 24 for you.
45:27This is against the Atlanta Falcons. How are you feeling?
45:30Uh, um, I was, I was listening to, uh, Evan Silva and he's buddies with Underhill and they were texting and Underhill
45:36just said Camara as what the plan is, you know?
45:39So I'm putting a lot of faith into that.
45:42There was 46 snaps without Travis HN last week.
45:45He's injured his hamstring 22 snaps for Alvin Camara, 14 for Kendra Miller, 11 for CJ Donaldson.
45:49So it was more Camara than Kendra Miller. He also had nine of the 14 carries without Travis HN.
45:55So a little bit more Camara versus Kendra Miller.
45:58We didn't get a goal line opportunity in that game.
46:01So we don't know if that's going to be Kendra or Alvin.
46:04I can see that one kind of going either way.
46:07Neither of them are playing any snaps on late downs.
46:10That's all goes to CJ Donaldson. The only thing I feel confident in is this will be a three back committee.
46:16I'm guessing that Alvin Camara is going to be the number one of that.
46:20Here's the issue. They are projected for 25 points, 25 points.
46:23A lot of the running backs we're talking about are at 18 points, 16 points, 14 points.
46:28We'll get to 25 points is the ninth most.
46:31The Atlanta Falcons are missing a lot of their front seven players right now.
46:35They have not been tested. They face it only the Panthers, Packers and Steelers running back so far, but it's a fast paced offense.
46:42So like, even though I hate the committee, I don't even like Alvin Camara.
46:46I don't like that. They don't have their left tackle like 25 points is a lot.
46:51All right. I mean, this is definitely flex consideration that Monday night football people's lineups might be in their matchups will be
46:57coming down to Alvin Camara in the flex this week.
47:00Well, so for numbers, the live betting markets have met 59 and a half total yards.
47:04That's probably a lot more than the tight ends you'd be considering or typically like the 40s.
47:09So I think he's like a half tier above that mix.
47:13I think he's a half tier above a lot of the fantasy wide receivers you'd be considering there.
47:18So I would say, yeah, he is. He's a flex start, but that's as far as I'll go.
47:23Okay. Let's talk JK Dobbins. He's running back 25.
47:26Your four spots out of consensus that have him as running back 29.
47:29This is on the road against the 49ers. He has 35 touches so far this season.
47:34The underlying metrics are horrible. Among 42 running backs with 20 more carries this year, according to JJ Zacharisen.
47:40JK Dobbins is 40th in success rate, 33rd in 10 plus yard rate, 39th in yards after contact per attempt.
47:45But he has seen the most red zone carries, obviously, on the team with six of them.
47:50And that has equaled three total yards. Yep. I'm just hoping it gets better.
47:54You know, I can't defend what I've been watching.
47:57I can't defend the numbers here. I just know that they're projected for over 22 points.
48:02And the 49ers defense is going to be without Nick Bosa.
48:05They're already down three defensive tackles. They're down two other edge rushers as well.
48:09Jeremiah Love was the RB7 last week. Devon Achan was the RB16.
48:13Kyron Williams was the RB16. But in the playoff loss, Kenneth Walker went for 34 points.
48:17I was without some of these key players. So it's not that difficult of a matchup for JK Dobbins.
48:23And without Jonah Coleman, I still just feel comfortable that like on, you know, the two yard line, JK Dobbins is going to get the carries.
48:30Now we'll talk about RJ Harvey in a second here.
48:33A lot of the work has been as a receiver against this 49ers defense.
48:37And like I would understand starting RJ Harvey in the flex if he had to as well.
48:42But Dobbins 67 and a half total yards in the projections right now.
48:46And I do think he is the goal line favorite.
48:49Quinchon Judkins is next for you. This is against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.
48:53Obviously, the Steelers have allowed a league low three red zone possessions all season long.
48:58According to a tree bar. Quinchon is averaging three yards per carry.
49:0139th among all running backs. He also has a 26% success rate.
49:05That's 39th among all running backs. And then he's 35th in terms of runner 10 or more yards.
49:10So, look, we can talk about slow development after injuries like the one he sustained.
49:14And then also a totally new offensive line in front of him.
49:18And I actually think that this Steelers defensive line is playing quite well.
49:21Yep. Yeah, they've invested more into the defensive line than pretty much anybody.
49:25Quinchon Judkins has become one of the easiest players to rank to me at this point.
49:30Because, you know, the usage is not going anywhere.
49:32And his efficiency isn't going anywhere. So, he's going to finish right here.
49:36It's not great in a win or a close game over the last two weeks.
49:41He has barely been and likely isn't fantasy relevant for you.
49:44I think he's a flex play in, you know, half PPR.
49:47And there will be a couple games where he plays much better than what he's played like so far.
49:53But it's an entirely new offensive line. I like what Todd Munkin is doing.
49:57I think Quinchon is better than what he's looked like this season so far.
50:01Um, he's the RB 29 and RB 22 usage.
50:03Like, I'm just going to keep copy pasting that.
50:06Okay, you have Trevion Henderson as your first Patriots running back off the board.
50:10And it's a pretty sizable difference between he and Ramondre Stevenson, who's at running back 35.
50:15This is at the Buffalo Bills. A little surprising to me based on, you know, Ramondre out snapping Hindu last week, 32
50:21to 17 with Drake May on the field. Um, but obviously we have seen when this offense is at their best, whatever
50:27part of that has been this season. Uh, it's Trevion Henderson running in for a 36-yard touchdown.
50:32And that's it. That's kind of where I'm leaning is like, they're so desperate that they're just going to have to get
50:39some explosives with, with Trevion early in the game.
50:41Like before halftime, it was more Trevion touches than Ramondre Stevenson.
50:45Then Ramondre got like eight touches for nothing to start the second half.
50:48And then it was, uh, Corey Kiner, your boy in the fourth quarter.
50:52Um, so one, I'm not expecting them to not literally use Trevion Henderson for an entire second half in this game.
50:58Like the game should be closer than what it was last week where they've been pathetic.
51:03And then I go back to the Buffalo Bills game in week 15 last year.
51:07It was Ramondre and Trevion. Trevion had 29.1 half PPR points.
51:10He had 161 total yards. He had two touchdowns.
51:13Those were explosive runs against them. I think that's probably their best bet of pulling off the upset is hoping Trevion hits
51:19some 30 plus yard carries in this one. I just don't understand how, you know, with backup guards, like they can go
51:26into this game and say like, Ramondre Stevenson up the gut is how we're beating the Buffalo Bills.
51:31Like I just don't believe in that. So I'm just ranking Trevion on the head.
51:35All right. The people have been waiting. Uh, this is where you have Amarin Hampton as running back 28.
51:41Fair. Uh, yeah. Running back 28. Closing drafts is like the 14th or 15th overall player.
51:46This is at the Seattle Seahawks. Let's put that there.
51:49I mean, this is an extremely difficult matchup for this Chargers offensive line, especially that guards and our guard trio against two
51:55of the best defensive tackles in the league for now a running back that is in a three way split.
52:01Uh, and a running back who's calling cards are being big and running fast in the straight line.
52:06And yet he is the second most touches at running back without a 20 plus yard game this season.
52:12I'll say even beyond that, like you got Devin Witherspoon and Nick and Monwari and then all the other guys like want to fly in.
52:19Like if you don't have tight ends that can block against Seattle, like that's like another huge deal.
52:24If you don't have wide receivers that can block, like forget about it.
52:28And that's just the state of the Chargers. They're rejected for 17 to three quarters points.
52:32That is 30th. That is, that is less than the buff.
52:36That is, that's less than Quinchon Junkins and the Browns.
52:39That might've been, if you asked me like one factor, one fact, I wish I had known in drafts.
52:44It's in week four, the Chargers offense is projected for fewer than 18 points.
52:48And I would not have drafted a single Charger in any draft this season.
52:52Yeah. Yeah. I'd say beyond that, um, you know, Keaton Mitchell getting some like, you know, give me like weird touches at the goal line.
53:00All of a sudden, Kamani Vidal for the first time played in pass protection.
53:04That was not true. The first two weeks, like there's other factors at play.
53:08You can now start him and blindly say, Oh, Marion Hampton is too big and he's too fast.
53:13And there's always just the hope of that translating to fantasy points.
53:16Everything beyond that, you know, is fake news. So I think like an adjustment like this in this week is, is required.
53:23And then maybe I'll call Hampton a buy low after this next week, but it's, it's not looking great.
53:28And I remember like week one or week two stats versus film.
53:32I compared him to Latavius Murray and that might've been an insult to Latavius Murray.
53:36I mean, top like 20 all time and rushing touchdowns.
53:39Latavius Murray is at the spot. So, you know, who knows running back 29 is Tony Pollard.
53:44Is this CT or D tier for you? Um, let's go down a tier.
53:48I guess. I mean, the D tier is going to be large this week.
53:52Uh, this is at the Baltimore Ravens. I believe Tajay Spears aggravated the ankle injury that he had been dealing with last week.
53:59Yeah. Um, but with five or more defensive backs on the field, if we want to have a pro Tony Pollard stat
54:05here and the Ravens do it, a lot of that.
54:08The Ravens have allowed a runner 10 and more yards, uh, 16.4% of the time that's 26 in the league and our
54:1522nd in defending in terms of success rate. So that's all retrieval are in the worksheet.
54:19So again, if we ever want to be optimistic at all, that's something for Tony Pollard.
54:24Yeah. They also faced Jonathan Taylor and you know, the Cowboys and whatnot.
54:28So, um, look, Tony Pollard is the RB 28 and RB 25 usage.
54:31That's pretty much exactly what he was last year when the Titans stunk at football and that's what they stink at football again this year.
54:39It's too early in the week to know the injury report.
54:42I know that Pollard and TyJ Spears were both dealing with injuries last couple of weeks.
54:47I was expecting that to be true. So if Spears is like actually out, I think I would flip them over a
54:53couple of these guys, but, um, we'll see. Okay.
54:56Moving on. Jadarian Price is also down here as you're running back 30.
54:59This is against the Los Angeles Chargers. Uh, he has the highest stuff rate in the NFL right now at 25%.
55:05However, Emmanuel Wilson is just behind that. Um, Jadarian Price is sixth in the NFL in terms of force missed tackles per attempt.
55:12But what we talked about with Basial Tootin and Jadarian Price are kind of going in opposite directions where Tootin's not making
55:18any mistakes and he's stacking positives on top of it.
55:21And unfortunately Jadarian Price is kind of making mistakes.
55:24And so there's no decision to give him more opportunities in stack performances.
55:28I mean, I have zero faith, zero confidence in like this ranking at all.
55:32So, um, he was like straight up bench like the last couple of weeks.
55:36Um, and like Emmanuel Wilson's getting goal line carries.
55:39Is that going to always be true? I would, I would not say that Jadarian Price was benched in week, week two.
55:45He got injured and missed the entire fourth quarter.
55:48Okay. That's at least that's injured and injured and benched better than bench twice.
55:52I guess. Uh, but multiple fumbles, multiple fumbles in games.
55:55Um, and they just don't trust him in path protection.
55:57So like you're hoping for an explosive play on the ground.
56:01Um, you know, the chargers like that has happened against the chargers defense before.
56:05Um, but it would be very fitting if like this was the week that worked, you know, when everyone's just like, you
56:11know, it's, it's not worth playing like the explosive guy hits explosive play, but at the same time that's impossible to predict.
56:18Well, my ranking is like putting stock into that because I have his RB 30.
56:22He's the RB 56 and RB 40 usage so far.
56:25So like this is me saying Jadarian Price. I know you're good at football.
56:29Like, please show me it once. Um, but like, you know, he can, he can finish with two points or 20 points.
56:35RJ Harvey is up next. We've already talked about the rest of the backfields.
56:39Uh, so I'll just throw out other than the green Bay Packers.
56:43Uh, I'll just throw up his name. Uh, and Woody Marks is up next.
56:47Um, and Rashad White and Cal Monunga guy and Ram Andre Stevenson and Blake Corum.
56:51Anything you want to say about all of these quote unquote running back twos?
56:55Um, I have a bunch of notes. If you guys want to go read them on Yahoo sports, uh, talk about their usage and whatnot.
57:03Like these are secondary players. I have Harvey the highest because the team total is like fairly solid.
57:08And, uh, I think that they can use him specifically against the 49ers defense right now.
57:12Like I can see that being a focal point for them.
57:16Uh, but the rest of these guys are like in the same rotation that they've been in previously.
57:21So nothing really to add. I think like this is like, that's the, that's the tight end tier.
57:26You know, when you're talking about like, I think C tier, I'm playing the running backs.
57:31I think the D tier, I'm playing the tight ends.
57:34You know, that's kind of like the split up.
57:36I will say if you're optimistic about Dave Montgomery, I might have some optimism with Woody marks too, just because they're kind of splitting the work.
57:44Yes. Uh, Woody marks is the RB 38 and RB 36 usage.
57:47I think it's a better matchup than the one he's had there.
57:51I moved him a couple of spots ahead from that, but yeah, I can see him flipping our Harvey or something like that.
57:58Okay. The first Packers running back is a running back 37 and it's Caleb Johnson.
58:02I'm not asking you to say anything about this.
58:05It's just that he has overtaken Marshawn Lloyd. Um, that's it.
58:08And then I did just want to get to Ollie Gordon.
58:11Unfortunately, he is all the way down at running back 40 on your list because the Miami Dolphins are projected for 14 points this week.
58:18Anything else you want to add? And we also don't know if Jalen Wright's going to play or not.
58:24Um, you know, I mean, I don't know what they're going to do against Brian Flores.
58:28What Brian Flores defense has been beating the experience play callers.
58:32What has he always done? Melted brains of inexperienced play callers and quarterbacks and offenses is the youngest offense in the NFL.
58:38So like, I just don't like if I had to pick our thing score over 14 points or fewer than it, I would say fewer.
58:45Uh, yeah. I mean, he has a 10% success rate on 20 carries this season.
58:50That's the worst among any running back with 20 plus carries in the NFL so far this year.
58:55Okay. That does it. Hey, now we'll be back on Friday with the wide receiver rankings on top of it.
59:01Thank you all for tuning in. Thank you all for watching.
59:04Thank you all for commenting. Uh, we appreciate it.
59:06Be sure to read the pin comment down below on top of it.
59:10Um, and we'll see you Sunday starts at show plus fancy football live from 10 30 AM until kickoff.
59:16Then, you know, we get it going with the game by game recap on Sunday night football once that's concluded and hits triple zeros.
59:23So once again, thank you all. And for weaves and motion behind the scenes, we'll talk to you guys in the next episode.
59:29See ya.
