32 Teams. 32 Fantasy Football Facts to BULLY Week 4

Targeted on 40 percent of his routes; film has been good; Puka Nakua believes he could pop for the Commanders eventually, though currently playing less than Traylon Burks.

Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league through three weeks with brutal throwing mechanics and a magnet for contact. He's been identified as the number one problem for the Buccaneers offense, and his poor play has limited the effectiveness of talented receivers like Emeka Buka despite good play design. Mayfield is out at least three weeks with a dislocated thumb, opening the door for undrafted free agent Jalen Daniels to potentially provide a spark.

Bo Nix is checking down too quickly and egregiously to running back RJ Harvey before allowing plays to develop, which is limiting vertical passing opportunities and hurting receivers like Jalen Waddle. This early-read dependency mirrors Waddle's experience with the Miami Dolphins and is constraining the Broncos' offensive efficiency.

Speaker gives a hat tip to Cooks if he gets to the active roster, noting he's a really smart player and Kyle Shanahan is notoriously demanding on wide receivers; Cooks made an impact for Buffalo last year in a looser offensive scheme, so could be in fantasy consideration if he reaches the 49ers roster.

Brock Purdy is playing MVP-level football and has not made a negative play yet. He's authored probably the two best quarterback games of the season from an adjusted net yards per attempt and EPA per play perspective (against Dolphins and Cardinals). The 49ers' elite pass protection (only 12 pressures in true pass sets all season, 10th team ever to not allow a sack in first three weeks) and first-read EPA per drop-back (number one by almost a full point) provide an exceptional environment. Purdy is making the quickest decisions and can scramble, though the schedule toughens with Broncos this week and Seahawks in Seattle.

Bucky Irving has shown inconsistency with three great plays followed by backbreaking mistakes; he was benched or suffered a setback in the fourth quarter of the recent game (hip injury, ice applied), and he had a drop in the game. While he makes people miss between the tackles, the rest of his game has not been clean, and his pass protection struggles are concerning.

Chris Godwin is averaging wide receiver 57 in points per game (6.3, 7.3, and 4 points across three weeks) and has been inconsistent. An 85-yard touchdown was called back due to a hold, but the play showed the most juice Godwin has displayed in the last two years, suggesting potential upside if the Buccaneers' quarterback situation improves.

CMC is only giving up touches if the team is up by 10+ points; the 49ers wide receiver finished usage is 27th or 28th across the league, with production flowing through Kittle, CMC, and Debo Samuel.

Christian Watson was a round 4-6 wide receiver pick that people were excited about in the draft, and he has really delivered on that expectation through three weeks.

Among running backs that were drafted, Chuba Hubbard is referenced as a comparison point for fantasy relevance; Puka Nakua suggests that after Hubbard, Ja'Cory Kroski-Meritt might have the best chance of being fantasy relevant among ball carriers in the Commanders backfield.

Colston Loveland is identified as the worst round 4 pick through three weeks; the speaker notes prior discussion about Khalif Raymond's snap counts and production versus other wide receivers Luther Burton and Roma Dunze, suggesting Loveland's role and production have been disappointing relative to draft capital.

Colston Loveland is the worst round four pick; his target share has collapsed from 31% last year to 10% over the first three games. While he's still running routes, they're mostly downfield isolation looks where he's not executing well. Khalif Raymond and Luther Burks are gobbling up the easy looks. The gap between Loveland and top-tier tight ends like Trey McBride and Brock Bauer won't close; best-case scenario is he reaches Sam LaPorta or Tyler Warren range. At 29.7 routes per game versus McBride's 36 and Bauer's 35, the route-running gap is structural and unlikely to change.

Colson Loveland has an average depth of target of 5.11 air yards, indicating he is receiving short-range passing opportunities in the Cardinals offense. While mentioned in the context of target distribution analysis, his specific role and usage trends are not elaborated beyond this metric.

DeAndre Swift started seven of nine drives in Week 3, representing a new rotation pattern with the Lions' running backs. Swift is currently RB6 or RB7 in usage, and the speaker expresses more comfort with Swift's role under Case Keenum than with the uncertainty of Tyson Bagent at quarterback.

Dalton Schultz's Week 3 performance against Cincinnati (14 targets) exemplifies the optimal offensive attack strategy against the Bengals' weak middle-of-field coverage; the Steelers replicated this same passing chart approach, targeting linebackers and safeties over the middle, suggesting this is a repeatable blueprint for attacking Cincinnati's defense.

DeVante Adams was a round 4-6 wide receiver pick that many draft analysts were hesitant about, but he has been electric through three weeks, delivering strong performance despite initial skepticism.

Debo Samuel had an 80-yard hook-and-lateral play that did not result in a catch, highlighting the 49ers' creative offensive designs. However, with Mike Evans potentially limited or unavailable due to rib injury, Debo becomes a primary receiving option for the 49ers despite the team's depleted wide receiver room.

Speaker believes Debo is getting really close to being a top 20 wide receiver, especially if Mike Evans is out; notes he looks really fast and beat the safety up the sideline on an 80-yard play, and continues to get backfield usage typical of his role.

Puka Nakua notes Michael Pinnock's arrival as starting quarterback has immediately benefited Drake London; Pinnock "has the eyes right for Drake London," and London is described as "excellent," suggesting sustained target volume and production with the new quarterback.

Garrett Wilson was a round 4-6 wide receiver pick that many draft analysts were hesitant about, but he has been solid through three weeks, delivering on his draft capital despite initial skepticism.

George Kittle is receiving wide-open targets down the field from Brock Purdy, benefiting from the 49ers' elite first-read EPA per drop-back (number one by almost a full point) and the team's smooth offensive execution. The speaker notes Kittle's targets are frequently wide open, and the offense is running hook-and-ladder plays and other creative designs that are working effectively.

Kittle keeps getting wide open and looks a little bit faster; had a play action touchdown late in a game where every linebacker bit on the play action; he hasn't slipped at all since the first game and is running full speed, looking awesome.

Puka Nakua expresses extreme concern for Isaiah Likely's fantasy viability given the Ravens' quarterback situation. Jameis Winston demonstrated poor arm strength in weeks 2-3, unable to complete basic routes to Likely (missing a six-yard hitch route where Likely had to defend the ball himself). With the team trading for J.J. McCarthy and planning to be run-heavy (29% neutral pass rate in week 3, lowest of the week), Likely's receiving volume and efficiency are at risk. The uncertainty around the quarterback position creates a floor-less scenario for the tight end.

Puka Nakua expresses skepticism about J.J. McCarthy's ability to improve the Ravens' offense despite the team trading a fifth-round pick for him. Nakua notes McCarthy 'has never been good in the NFL' and will face the challenge of learning a new offense when he enters, likely by week 6. The trade suggests the Ravens lost confidence in Jameis Winston's arm strength after weeks 2-3, but McCarthy's lack of NFL success means he won't salvage the situation for Ravens skill players like Malik Neighbors and Isaiah Likely.

JK Dobbins has a 24% rushing success rate and does not look as fast as he used to, though the speaker attributes much of the struggle to poor offensive line play and scheme issues rather than Dobbins alone. The Broncos' center and tight ends are struggling in run blocking, and the schedule opened with three top-10 defenses (Spags, Jaguars, Rams). Dobbins has not yet scored goal-line touchdowns and is expected to settle into playable flex territory rather than a featured back role. The speaker expresses concern that Dobbins may not be fantasy-relevant this season given the offensive line struggles and lack of early-down efficiency.

JSN is ranked number one in fantasy points over expected placement (points above ADP-adjusted baseline), indicating strong early-season performance relative to draft capital.

Jalen McMillan is injured again and expected to miss 6-9 weeks, continuing a pattern of injury issues that has plagued his early NFL career. Despite flashing some potential, his inability to stay healthy is a significant concern for fantasy relevance.

Jalen Daniels, an undrafted free agent who earned the backup quarterback role in training camp, is taking over for Baker Mayfield (dislocated thumb, out 3+ weeks). The speaker notes Daniels has a live arm, is willing to stand in the pocket and deliver, works over the middle of the field, and has been praised by analysts like Nate Tice and Greg Cosell (who called him his favorite player in the draft). However, there's only about a one-in-ten chance he provides a meaningful spark given the historical rarity of undrafted free agent rookie quarterbacks succeeding. The Buccaneers face the Green Bay Packers this week, a struggling defense that could provide an opportunity for Daniels to generate some offensive flow.

Jameis Winston's re-entry as the Giants' full-time starting quarterback in Week 4 is viewed negatively; Puka Nakua described his Week 3 performance as 'brutal,' suggesting weather may have played a role but indicating limited optimism for his fantasy production going forward.

Puka Nakua assesses Jameis Winston's week 3 performance as a significant step back from week 1, with poor arm strength and accuracy throughout. Despite weather playing a role, Winston showed concerning mechanics: one-yard average depth of target, every throw was short and flat with no zip, defenders getting hands on middle throws, and incompletions on basic routes like a six-yard hitch to Isaiah Likely. Nakua notes Winston looked like 'a guy who spent all summer being a content creator' and suggests the Ravens may have traded for J.J. McCarthy because they believe Winston's arm 'might not be NFL caliber anymore.' The team is also planning to be run-heavy (lowest neutral pass rate at 29% in week 3), limiting his passing volume.

Jalen Waddle's floor is lower than expected through three weeks with 7.5 yards per target—well below his career average—and he's averaging wide receiver 23 in targets per game. The connection between Waddle and Bo Nix has been inconsistent, with late throws and drops contributing to underperformance; however, the speaker notes good route designs and coverage challenges (McDuffie, zone defense). Waddle is expected to remain a weekly starter despite ups and downs, with an upcoming tough matchup against the 49ers followed by easier defenses (Chargers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chiefs, Panthers), suggesting he may settle into wide receiver 2/3 territory rather than top-12 potential.

Warren had an awesome day in week three as the only running back on the Steelers; speaker notes this was one of their favorite picks in all of fantasy football and it paid off.

Since week two, Warren has played 106 of 114 snaps (93%) without Rico Dattle; at 93% snap share, he qualifies as a low-end RB1. Seven running backs this season with over 90% team touches averaged 21.5 PPR points in those games, a tier that includes Jahmeer Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, and James Cook. Warren scored 19.1 half-PPR points in week three with RB14 usage; the turf monster was the primary reason he wasn't a top-three or top-four fantasy running back that week.

Strong conviction on Warren's outlook for Thursday night football against the Browns (slight favorites). As long as Rico Dattle remains unavailable, Warren's role is cut and dry; the speaker would like to see more of Warren on a routine basis going forward.

Jeremiah Love received 26 touches in week 3 after receiving 13 and 12 touches in weeks 1-2, following the same ramp-up pattern Michael Thor used with Breece Hall (12, 8, 14 touches before five weeks as featured back until injury). This touch progression suggests Love is being transitioned into a featured role.

Jeremiah Love is projected as a top-10 fantasy running back the rest of the way; Puka Nakua would rather have him than Ashton Gentey and Saquon Barkley. Love received 13 and 12 touches in weeks 1-2 before getting 26 touches in week 3, following Michael Thor's pattern with Breece Hall (12, 8, 14 touches before becoming featured). Despite tough sledding against strong defensive lines and linebackers in week 3, Love absorbed contact well and generated hidden yards.

Puka Nakua projects Jeremiah Love as a top 10 fantasy running back the rest of the way, preferring him over Ashton Gentey and Saquon Barkley; notes that Tyler Algier is "simply not good enough" and won't return to the role, positioning Love for top-five to top-ten usage going forward.

Puka Nakua highlights Jeremiah Love as a strong value if drafted in the late round three range, particularly if paired with Kenneth Walker; emphasizes Love will be "one of the best clicks in fantasy" with top-five to top-ten usage going forward.

Puka Nakua notes Jeremiah Love is very comfortable as a receiver with opportunities emerging; as a rusher, Love shows elite traits including spin move and acceleration, though slightly jumpy early; Nakua expects Love to "get his feet wet" and perform "really, really, really strong the rest of the way" with Tyler Algier no longer in the picture.

Matt Kelley agrees with Puka Nakua's assessment, noting Love "passes the eye test in both phases" and will "end up being a really, really good value"; Kelley has drafted both Ashton Gentry and Jeremiah Love in the same draft, taking "ankle discounts" on both, and suggests Love could be the better play in a few weeks.

Watkins was brought up on the waiver wire show with two catches for 60 yards despite playing only 30% of snaps; speaker is uncertain how to calibrate his fantasy relevance in the 49ers offense.

Jawan Johnson is running 36 routes per game, matching Trey McBride's elite route volume and significantly exceeding Colston Loveland's 29.7 routes per game.

Khalif Raymond is ripping away target opportunities from Colston Loveland and is executing well in Ben Johnson's offense. He's getting consistent looks including a well-designed deep post touchdown where Luther Burks' motion and Roma Dunze's slant cleared space for Raymond to run wide open. At 32 years old, Raymond could fade at any point, but currently there's nothing suggesting the snap/route distribution should change. He's a key part of the Lions' passing game distribution.

Kalief Raymond ranks 26th in target share among NFL wide receivers. Against Philadelphia's defense, he is expected to get opportunities alongside Luther Burden, as Ben Johnson could dial up plays to exploit the Eagles' coverage tendencies. However, Raymond's average depth of target is 5.8 air yards, indicating shorter-range opportunities compared to deeper targets for other receivers.

Puka Nakua notes Kyle Pitts' snap rate has declined to 59% in week three, reducing him from full-time player status; with Michael Pinnock at quarterback favoring Drake London, Pitts' upside is capped at 30-40 yards per game, and the snap rate decline is "not going to get there."

Puka Nakua states Kyle Pitts "is still never going to hit this year," especially with snap rate down to 59% in week three, no longer a full-time player; notes Pitts was "one of, if not the worst pick" in round six so far this season.

Kyron Williams is emerging as a premier receiving weapon for the Rams with 4.9 air yards per target among running backs with double-digit targets—easily the highest in the league; he's doubling up Devon Achan (2.4 air yards per target) on 12 targets with only two check-downs, demonstrating he's being deployed as a vertical threat rather than a dump-off option. The speaker prefers Kyron Williams over Saquon Barkley in fantasy and notes he plays 75% of snaps when the Rams are trailing or tied, with increased slot usage in recent games as a first-read target on quick outs and angle routes.

Luther Burden received 11 targets in Week 4, ranking 15th in target share among NFL wide receivers. His route share increased from 66% in the first two weeks to 77%, and he posted a career-high 20.4 expected half-PPR points (8.4 points above his previous high). He achieved a 26% team-high target share and ranks as WR19 in targets per game and WR13-14 in usage across the season. Against Philadelphia's defense, Puka Nakua expects Burden and Kalief Raymond to get the most opportunities, with Burden being the most optimistic play rest of season.

Malik Navers, packaged as the worst third-round pick on the board, showed regression in Week 3 compared to Week 1; Puka Nakua expressed no hope for Navers' fantasy outlook, noting that while he may look better on tape, his on-field performance has declined and he's dealing with the volatility that comes with returning from serious injury.

Puka Nakua considers Marcus Mariota the best backup quarterback in the league; he has thrived in certain matchups over the last three-plus years; his ability to keep the Commanders' offense afloat is positive news for the running back rotation and wide receiver usage.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is not producing because he's playing a vertical X receiver role that isn't generating points and yards; his ranking looks bad because the role design isn't working, contrasting sharply with Michael Wilson who was ranked in the same tier but is now thriving with designed plays and quick looks.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 22% target share over the last eight games and is the wide receiver 24 in usage (or WR18 when removing games where he was inactive); this is a stark contrast to Michael Wilson, who is now WR7 in usage, indicating a significant role disparity despite being drafted in the same tier.

Marvin Harrison Jr. operates as the X receiver in Drew Pettine's offense, which dictates his target allocation through the system's progressions; he will have games and moments when defensive looks favor the big-play sacrificial X receiver role, but the target distribution is becoming more equitable with Michael Wilson in the offense.

Getting Michael Pittman back is noted as nice, although the connection with Aaron Rodgers in week three was not the best; the passing attack showed improvement but was largely driven by busted coverages from Cincinnati rather than sustained offensive execution.

Michael Wilson is legitimately a really good player who was under-prioritized in the previous offense; he was the most drafted receiver on multiple platforms including Underdog due to his low ADP, and he delivered in Week 3 with seven catches against zone coverage, quick first-read looks, explosive plays on out cuts, and excellent breaking routes throughout the game.

Michael Wilson is now the wide receiver 7 in usage; the Cardinals designed a ton of stuff for him including first-read looks, quick releases, screens, slant routes, play-action near the goal line, and diving catches across all levels of the field; he delivered a touchdown on a 13-personnel play action that previously went to Marvin Harrison.

Michael Wilson has more upside ahead; the Cardinals offense has more meat on the bone, and while current quarterback play (Jacoby Brissett) limits downfield throws, future quarterback changes or scheme adjustments could unlock additional production for Wilson and other receivers like Marvin Harrison.

Over the last eight games with Marvin Harrison healthy, Michael Wilson has a 22% target share and WR18 usage, making him a fantasy starter; Puka Nakua projects him at the WR2-3 border with a flash of WR1 overall upside. Outside of duds against the Chargers and Seahawks in weeks 1-2, Wilson's remaining games have been WR1 caliber, suggesting the market undervalued him despite him playing better than Marvin Harrison Jr. over an 8-game sample despite being drafted after Harrison in every draft.

Michael Wilson's role in Drew Pettine's offense is becoming more equitable compared to Marvin Harrison's X receiver role; the system previously dictated Harrison would get looks over Wilson based on progressions, but Wilson is a versatile receiver who checks many boxes and can generate production even without explosive third-level separation against zone coverage. Puka Nakua is buying Michael Wilson going forward.

Mike Evans has had a nice start to the season after preseason groin and quad issues, but now has a rib injury on top of previous concerns. The speaker expresses worry about Evans' impending doom given the accumulation of injuries (groin, quad, rib, and hamstring concerns), suggesting he may be limited or unavailable this week.

Evans has had a stop-start preseason with groin and quad issues, and now has a rib injury on top of it; speaker is concerned about potential snap count reduction to 50% or even 30% in upcoming week.

Puka Nakua is currently out, which has benefited DeVante Adams' production and role in the Chargers offense.

Puka Nakua is expected to miss another game due to injury, creating uncertainty about his return timeline and fantasy viability. The speaker expresses concern about trading him away, noting that fair value is difficult to establish; Christian Watson was discussed as a potential trade target but deemed not quite equal value, though the speaker would prefer Watson rest-of-season due to injury concerns with Nakua.

RJ Harvey is receiving absurd receiving usage from Bo Nix, who checks down to him frequently before allowing plays to develop. Harvey is also getting manufactured touches in the red zone alongside early-down work from JK Dobbins, though the speaker questions whether these early checkdowns are beneficial for the overall offense.

Showed a little something in week three, but is an explosive athlete often mistaken for a good route runner; he is not a good route runner and is a sloppy receiver overall. Aaron Rodgers has been critical of him for missing landmarks. As a slot-based player running routes against poor coverage (Cincinnati), he will have occasional success, but week three is a one-game sample size.

After his drop turned into an interception in Week 3 against Cincinnati, Roman Wilson saw his snap count collapse from 20 snaps to just 5 snaps following Aaron Rodgers' adjustment; Jeremy Bernard took over with 15 snaps, suggesting the Steelers benched Wilson in response to the turnover.

Sam LaPorta represents the realistic ceiling for Colston Loveland's recovery; Loveland is expected to eventually reach LaPorta or Tyler Warren range rather than close the gap to elite tight ends like Trey McBride and Brock Bauer.

In Week 3, Barkley received 11 carries for 73 yards in the first half but only 4 carries in the second half, reflecting Eagles' abandonment of the run in trailing situations. While Barkley himself does not look washed as an individual player, the rushing environment is significantly worse; the Eagles' outside zone success rate has declined from 10th to 20th this year, and the passing offense cannot keep pace in trailing situations, forcing run abandonment.

Puka Nakua would rather have Jeremiah Love than Saquon Barkley as a running back going forward, suggesting Barkley is ranked below Love in his top-10 RB projection for the rest of the season.

Puka Nakua prefers Jeremiah Love over Saquon Barkley as a top-10 fantasy running back rest of season, suggesting Love offers better upside going forward.

Puka Nakua projects both Stefan Diggs and Terry McLaurin inside top 30 for the week; Diggs is getting manufacturer touches and still looks explosive; Puka Nakua expects Commanders to exceed their 22-point projection, which is positive for Diggs' scoring opportunity.

Ted Hurst is playing a ton of snaps for the Buccaneers as an ex-receiver and will play essentially every snap given the team's 11 personnel usage and lack of multiple tight ends. He's had some impressive moments in isolated looks against press man coverage and a 40-yard touchdown against Cleveland. The speaker sees potential for him to be a back-half-of-season fantasy option, though he needs to see more before considering him a current fantasy asset. His high snap count and role in the offense suggest he could develop into a viable option.

Slot rate increased to 21.6 percent, his highest since 2021; receiving a mix of vertical routes and quick slants (trend that started in Dallas week two and continued week three); this increased slot usage is positive for his target volume and route participation.

Trey McBride is among the elite tier of tight ends, running 36 routes per game—significantly more than Colston Loveland's 29.7. He's positioned well above Loveland and represents the ceiling for Loveland's potential recovery.

Out-routed Antonio Williams in week three but receiving primarily space-clearing and sacrificial routes; targeted on only 10.5 percent of his routes compared to Antonio Williams at 40 percent; increased playing time over Antonio Williams is positive for Terry McLaurin and Stefan Diggs, not for Burks' own fantasy value.

Tyler Higbee is positioned as a primary receiving option for the Rams with Puka Nakua sidelined, and tight ends are outscoring wide receivers (33 points) and running backs (25 points) this season, making the tight end position particularly valuable in flex spots. Higbee can be considered a viable fantasy option given the Rams' receiving depth issues.

Tyler Warren represents the realistic ceiling for Colston Loveland's recovery; Loveland is expected to eventually reach Warren or Sam LaPorta range rather than close the gap to elite tight ends like Trey McBride and Brock Bauer.

Tyson Bagent is expected to remain benched in Week 4 against the Jets, with Case Keenum returning as the Lions' starting quarterback. The speaker suggests offensive coordinators and head coaches prefer the constraint of working with a backup quarterback, and Ben Johnson will likely continue to operate under this limitation in Week 4 and possibly Week 5.