NFL Touchdown Show | Week 1

Sean Kerner notes that the Patriots' tight end touchdown scorer in the season opener was a sneaky play because the team drafted a replacement for Austin Hooper, creating value in the odds.

Bo Nix is undervalued at plus 600 to score a touchdown. Despite his ankle injury, there is no reason to expect a significant downgrade in his rushing ability, and he has a history of high touchdown production in the red zone.

Grant Neifer likes Caleb Williams at +500, noting his rushing upside and the Panthers' poor run defense. He projects Williams could reach five or six rushing touchdowns this season.

Sean Kerner notes that Chig Okonkwo is no longer with the Titans and is now on the Commanders.

Gilles Gallant notes that Chris Rodriguez has been a non-factor in the receiving game for the Jaguars.

Christian Watson is the clear WR1 for the Packers and is healthy entering the season. Jordan Love shows a higher target-per-route-run rate toward Watson when facing high-blitz teams like the Vikings, making him a strong touchdown target at plus 220.

Grant notes DJ Moore is undervalued at +265. As the de facto WR1 in a potentially less conservative offense under Joe Brady, Moore is expected to play 80-90% of snaps. Despite a tough matchup, his history of high touchdown production with various quarterbacks makes the current odds too high.

DJ Moore is a recommended touchdown scorer at plus 260. His role in the offense is expected to be significant, and the Bills are projected to pass more, providing him with more opportunities to score.

Sean Kerner expects Daniel Bellinger to mix in for the Titans, but characterizes him primarily as a blocking tight end.

Grant Neifer expresses frustration with Drake Maye's performance in the season opener, noting he messed up the game.

Grant Neifer likes Emeka Egbuka at +210, noting he was highly productive early last season before nagging injuries derailed his second half. He is expected to be the go-to guy now that Mike Evans is gone.

Sean Kerner identifies Garrett Wilson as the clear number one target in the Jets' offense.

George Pickens is a strong touchdown bet at plus 150. Despite concerns about CeeDee Lamb's target share, Pickens remains productive in target rate and end-zone targets, and his presence alongside Lamb makes it difficult for defenses to key in on one receiver.

Sean Kerner recommends Gunnar Helm at +550, noting he is the lead tight end for the Titans. Helm had a 23% target rate on routes run last year and is expected to be the primary pass-catching tight end.

Gilles Gallant likes Harold Fannin at +425, noting he is the starting tight end who led the Browns in targets per route run as a rookie and was second in route participation.

Grant Neifer recommends Ja'Marr Chase at -116, noting his elite production against cover two and cover three defenses, which Tampa Bay runs at a high rate.

Matt Rogers recommends Jack Besch at 8-1, noting he is expected to be the starting slot receiver for the Raiders. With Brock Bowers out, Besch should see a significant increase in targets and snap share, likely playing 70% of snaps.

Grant Neifer likes Jalen Coker at +300, highlighting his strong finish to last season, including an 85% snap share in the final month and three red-zone targets in the playoffs.

Matt Rogers identifies value on Jameson Williams at +180 odds, citing his increasing target share, route participation, and role as the primary deep threat. Rogers is encouraged by Williams seeing more end-zone targets and potential usage out of the backfield or on jet sweeps, similar to Deebo Samuel.

Gilles Gallant likes Jameson Williams at +180, noting his seven receiving touchdowns last year and an encouraging increase in end-zone targets as the season progressed.

Sean Kerner expects Jalen Warren to mix in significantly, potentially taking on a passing-down role similar to Kenneth Gainwell.

Gilles Gallant notes that Jerry Jeudy led the Browns in route participation last season.

The host identifies Justin Jefferson at +180 as an absurdly priced touchdown bet. Jefferson consistently maintains a 30%+ target share and 90% route participation. The host argues the price should be closer to +135, regardless of quarterback play.

Justin Jefferson is mispriced at plus 180 for a touchdown; the odds should be closer to plus 135 given his elite 90% route participation and the positive matchup against the Packers.

Sean Kerner likes Kyle Pitts at +350, noting the team is scheming up tight end screen plays for him. He believes Pitts is entering his prime at 25 years old.

Malik Nabers is unlikely to be 100% for Week 1 and may serve as a decoy if active, as the team is expected to take it easy on him.

Matt Rogers likes Malik Willis at +340, noting his tendency to scramble for touchdowns. With the Dolphins' lack of offensive weapons and the Raiders' poor rush defense, Rogers expects Willis to call his own number if he gets within the 10-yard line.

Sean Kerner likes Marvin Harrison Jr. at +240, viewing the opener as a potential breakout spot. Despite a disappointing start to his career due to injuries, Harrison showed signs of improvement. Kerner expects the Cardinals to be trailing and passing frequently against the Chargers.

Sean Kerner likes Matthew Hibner at 19-1 as a long-shot touchdown bet. With Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kohler out, Hibner is expected to play a role in year one as a pass-catching tight end. Kerner notes the odds are too high given the volatility of week one and Hibner's potential for red-zone snaps.

Grant highlights Nico Collins as the primary target for C.J. Stroud with other receivers injured. At +178, the odds are considered inflated compared to previous seasons. Collins is expected to be peppered with targets throughout the game.

Odell Beckham Jr. is a high-value target at plus 750, especially with Darius Slayton cut and Malik Nabors potentially limited or a decoy. He is expected to see red-zone usage, and his odds will likely drop significantly by kickoff.

Sean Kerner likes Omar Cooper Jr. at 12-1 odds, noting he won the job in camp and should be the WR2 in three-receiver sets. He compares him to a Jarvis Landry-type slot receiver.

Sean Kerner likes Rico Dowdle at +120, expecting him to handle early-down work and goal-line duties in the new scheme. He notes Dowdle ranked second in Vulture ratings last season.

Rico Dowdle is a strong touchdown bet at plus 120. He is expected to serve as the goal-line back in Mike McCarthy's scheme, and the Steelers are projected to play with a lead against the Falcons.

Grant Neifer reports that Sam Darnold is expected to return from his injury between week three and week five, which is better news than the initial fear of a season-ending injury.

Grant likes Terry McLaurin at +325, arguing the price is too high. Despite a down year, McLaurin remains the clear primary target for Jayden Daniels. Grant notes that McLaurin has historically performed well even with inferior quarterback play.

Gilles Gallant observes that Bashal Tootin began taking goal-line work away from Travis Etienne by the end of last season.

Sean Kerner likes Tyler Warren at +235, noting he could be Daniel Jones' top red-zone target. With Jones returning from an Achilles tear, Kerner expects fewer scrambles and more passing, potentially increasing Warren's targets. Warren may also see designed rush attempts near the goal line.

Xavier Worthy's stock is at an all-time low following a poor rookie season, but his odds of plus 320 are too high given his ability to score from anywhere and the likelihood of a bounce-back season for the Chiefs' offense.