NFL Futures Watch | Week 2
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 8 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 15, 2026
Published
Tue, September 15, 2026
40
Player insights
34
Players mentioned
Topics
D.J. MooreDalton KincaidDrake MayeJosh AllenJustin HerbertSam DarnoldA.J. BrownAaron RodgersBaker MayfieldBo NixBryce YoungCaleb WilliamsCam WardCarson Wentz
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeInjury33:42
A.J. Brown's injury and subsequent move to IR is a major blow to the Patriots' offense, which Anderson believes drops them from a top-10 unit to league average, effectively shifting the spread by a full point.
Insight pageAaron Rodgers
NegativeProjection54:08
The source expresses disappointment in Aaron Rodgers' performance, stating he should not be playing at the level seen in the Steelers-Falcons game.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeUsage49:40
Baker Mayfield struggled with fumble luck, recording three fumbles that significantly impacted the Buccaneers' EPA and win probability.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection20:45
Bo Nix struggled significantly against the Chiefs, recording four sacks and three fumbles with an under-4 ADOT, which Anderson describes as a 'terrible game' that raises concerns about his performance.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection47:02
The source expresses concern regarding the 37 points allowed to Bryce Young, noting he recorded 361 yards and three touchdowns in the game.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
NegativeValue14:05
Brandon Anderson labels Caleb Williams the worst MVP bet on the board at 7-1 to 8-1 odds (21-23% implied probability). Despite a strong Week 1 performance against Carolina, Anderson argues the Bears' defense is too poor to support an MVP campaign, as MVP winners typically require high team win totals and top-tier seeding.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection52:54
Cam Ward struggled significantly against the Jets, recording under 100 yards passing in the game.
Insight pageCarson Wentz
NegativeRole44:42
Carson Wentz was forced to take over the Vikings' offense after Kyler Murray suffered a severe injury early in the game.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveUsage41:45
The source notes that DJ Moore is a focal point of the Bears offense, highlighted by his 100-yard performance in Week 1.
Insight pageNegativeUsage41:55
DJ Moore is noted for having 100 yards in the game, though the source emphasizes that Dalton Kincaid was the true star for Buffalo.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveUsage41:49
Dalton Kincaid was the star for Buffalo, recording 130 yards while splitting out as a receiver in a game where the Bills utilized 13 personnel.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout41:50
The source identifies Dalton Kincaid as the star for the Buffalo Bills in their Week 1 matchup against Houston.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeUsage34:36
Daniel Jones had a poor performance (19 of 31, 166 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and notably did not run the ball, which is a concern for fantasy prop bettors.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeBust60:44
The source suggests Deshaun Watson's career is nearing an end, referencing his upcoming performance against the Buccaneers.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveUsage30:46
Dontayvion Wicks is credited for carrying the load regarding the Eagles' deep completions in their recent game.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeProjection21:55
The source highlights a 'boneheaded' interception by Drake Maye with under 30 seconds left, contributing to a loss and suggesting the Patriots are already behind the eight ball.
Insight pageNegativeProjection34:07
Drake Maye struggled in the opener with deep passing and made a 'boneheaded' interception late in the game. Anderson notes the lack of explosive weapons around him makes it difficult for him to succeed moving forward.
Insight pageDrew Lock
NegativeDepth Chart32:00
Anderson evaluates Drew Locke as a backup option during Sam Darnold's injury, ranking him roughly 35th-40th among quarterbacks and suggesting the team can still function given their defensive and coaching strengths.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveBreakout47:06
Jalen Coker is highlighted for his significant contribution to the Panthers' offense, recording 138 yards in the Week 1 game.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeUsage29:14
The source criticizes the Eagles' usage of Jalen Hurts, noting a lack of designed runs and questioning the offensive scheme under Sean Mannion, which they describe as a 'D-minus effort'.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeProjection59:23
The source characterizes Javante Williams as a running back who struggles to break tackles.
Insight pageJaxson Dart
PositiveProjection31:26
Jaxson Dart looked steady, in control, and showed improved decision-making for the Giants, performing much better than the previous year.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeProjection49:13
Joe Burrow threw an uncharacteristic pick-six to Josiah Trotter, though the Bengals ultimately controlled the game.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection40:13
The source describes Josh Allen as the 'best player in the world' after he diced up the Texans' defense, noting his ability to make elite throws that almost no other quarterback can replicate.
Insight pagePositiveProjection42:18
The source emphasizes that Josh Allen's performance against Houston was a result of his unique elite ability, noting he has a career-long tendency to dominate even strong defenses.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeValue15:53
Brandon Anderson notes that his pre-season stance on Justin Herbert being a poor MVP bet at 10-1 has aged well, as Herbert is now 22-1 and 0-1-1, making the initial fade look correct.
Insight pageNegativeProjection27:06
Justin Herbert did not have a good game against the Cardinals, and the source notes the Chargers' offense will take time to figure things out.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage18:49
Kenneth Walker is highlighted for his explosive performance (173 yards, two touchdowns) against Denver, which Anderson attributes to the Chiefs' shift toward a more run-heavy, under-center offensive approach that utilizes duo blocking.
Insight pageKyle Juszczyk
PositiveUsage23:33
Kyle Juszczyk was featured in a 49ers offense that utilized a lot of motion and new concepts against the Rams.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveUsage26:53
The Chargers' offense is significantly more efficient with Ladd McConkey on the field, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt compared to under four without him; he is described as their only real receiver.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveValue38:03
Lamar Jackson is currently 12% to win MVP on DraftKings, which the source considers a strong buying opportunity given his performance and the market price.
Insight pageMalik Willis
NegativeProjection54:28
Malik Willis is described as having a toothless performance for the Dolphins, with the coaching staff failing to utilize him effectively despite having an entire offseason to plan.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveProjection38:47
Parker Washington is noted for having good metrics during the Jaguars' blowout win over the Browns.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveProjection21:41
Despite a quiet passing game in Week 1, Anderson remains bullish on Patrick Mahomes' MVP potential, noting that the team's success and upcoming favorable schedule (Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, Chargers) position him well for future production as the offense evolves.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
NegativeUsage22:15
The source notes a lack of explosiveness in the Patriots' offense, specifically citing Rhamondre Stevenson, Romeo Doubs, and Hunter Henry as insufficient options for moving the ball quickly.
Insight pageSam Darnold
NegativeInjury22:31
Sam Darnold avoided the worst-case scenario regarding his hip injury and is not expected to be out for a long duration.
Insight pageNegativeInjury31:47
Sam Darnold is dealing with a hip injury that will sideline him for a few games. Anderson views this as a downgrade, though not catastrophic, as he considers Darnold a mid-tier quarterback (around 20th best) and believes the team can survive with Drew Locke in the short term.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeUsage28:49
Saquon Barkley had a 46-yard run but otherwise struggled, managing only 41 yards on 15 carries (under 3 yards per carry) as the Eagles' offense faced significant issues.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection38:41
Trevor Lawrence looked awesome with four touchdowns and strong metrics, though the source cautions that the performance came against a weak Cleveland team.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveUsage35:42
Zay Flowers recorded 150 yards and a score in the first half, though the source notes the need to manage his hamstring health.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:58The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action, boss.
2:01Ready! All right, here we go. From the tent, throwing in zone.
2:05Spectacular catch. They're saying it's a catch. Touchdown. You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
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2:16All right. That is the ultimate kibosh. You want a bet?
2:20And we are underway. Welcome to the Brandon's Future Show, presented by DraftKings.
2:24Two Brandons for the price of one. I'm Brandon Kravitz.
2:27I'll be steering the ship throughout the season, and he is Brandon Anderson, the ROI maven.
2:32He'll be handling all of the winning tickets for us throughout the course of the season.
2:37I'll see if I can chip in along the way.
2:40Brandon, week one is in the books. The Chiefs are back.
2:44The Bears are setting records, and no one plays defense anymore.
2:47I think every defensive coordinator fell asleep in the booth over the weekend.
2:51How did week one treat you? It was a lot of fun.
2:55We did pretty well in our week one. But it's a roller coaster, as always.
3:00When you take the long shots and the escalators, you know, hit a little here, miss a little there.
3:06So, yeah, it was a lot of fun. We finally got some points.
3:10No more of these. Like, the primetime game is not so much.
3:14We get, like, 13-10 in the primetime game, and then suddenly eight games out one Sunday.
3:19And there's a touchdown here, two touchdowns there. Just going crazy out there.
3:23So, this is always a very fun and challenging time as a better where, okay, we waited.
3:28We prepped. We prepped the division odds and the futures odds.
3:32And here's my power rating on this team, and I'm down on this team.
3:36Now we finally have data. But we have one game, one sample of data.
3:40So, what do we do? Do we overreact? Do we underreact?
3:44One data is a lot more than no data.
3:47So, that's kind of the point of what we're going to talk about today, and I'm excited for it.
3:53The thing we're all trying to figure out every year, and nobody has the perfect answer to this, and perhaps the reason
4:00why we still have so much fun doing this is because we're just constantly going to be searching for the correct answers,
4:07what to react to, what not to react to.
4:09And I guess when you think about it, everything that we saw over the weekend, every single team we could label as
4:16this is an overreaction or this is something that we shouldn't react to.
4:20With such a limited sample, every single team is really on the plate.
4:25And so, that's something that we're going to dive into here.
4:28It just kind of drives you crazy, Brandon. This will be the last little tidbit before we get into it because we
4:35spend so much time prepping for the season. We put so much work in to get ready for week one, and when
4:42things don't go your way after you've spent months, it's more maddening than when you go, I spent four days on this,
4:49week two didn't go my way, on to week three.
4:52And trying to trudge past that sometimes can be the biggest challenge.
4:56Yeah, no question about it. Same as like your fantasy team, that 0-1-1, the zero stings a bit at the beginning.
5:02And if you come out swinging in week one and the bets don't line up, suddenly it's like, man, were my reads wrong on the futures?
5:11Do I need to sit out week two? Do I need to lower the unit?
5:15It's tough. It hits a lot different than just a random week nine when you're missing a few bets here and there.
5:22So, it's tough, obviously, to feel like you're in a hole that's not a good way to act as a better.
5:29And so, we're hopefully on this show, focusing on the future, is going to try to zoom out as best we can
5:36and say, okay, we're focusing a lot on the trees week by week.
5:40We're staring at the leaves and the tiniest little parts of the stem to try to get some sort of edge.
5:47But let's try to zoom out. Let's look at the forest and try to see the whole chessboard.
5:52And that's what we hope to do on Tuesdays on this show.
5:56Absolutely. So, whether you had a good week one or a bad week one, it doesn't really matter because it's all about what happens from here.
6:04We're going to play a quick game of buy or sell to wet the pallet.
6:09Are you buying this? Are you buying or selling?
6:12What are you buying? You want to sell? Buy it!
6:15Time to sell us right now. Of the 16 games, nine of them went over.
6:20And it feels like the number should have even been higher than that.
6:24We've seen the stat. All of us have seen this by now.
6:28Most points scored in a season opening weekend since the merger in 1970.
6:32Buy or sell the wave of overs continuing. Yeah, Sunday especially.
6:35Nine and four overs on Sunday. Best since 2015 opening Sunday.
6:3953 points a game. We had 60, 61, 61, 64, 67.
6:42And of course, the 96 whopper from the Bears.
6:45The highest scoring game we've ever seen. Scoregami on top of it.
6:49I think we had just Sunday 16 players with multiple touchdowns.
6:52I think at the very least, when we get around to week one a year from now, we probably can't just blind bet the week one undertrend anymore.
7:01At the very least, we have to be cognizant of that.
7:04I don't think we need to go entirely the other way now and say defense is dead.
7:10Offense is rule. We figured out the whole new season.
7:13That's probably not how this is going to go either.
7:16We got a bunch of defensive touchdowns last week.
7:19We had a lot of long kickoff returns. If you dig into it, there are a lot of reasons to think things,
7:26you know, trended upward and toward the overs. And like you said, add in those primetime games, we ended up nine and seven overs for the week.
7:34So I don't think that we're on over city here for the new season.
7:39But at the very least, we probably should be cautious about just thinking under early in the year, which is what recent years have looked like.
7:47There's an uptick in scoring. There's just going to be line movement that coincides with that.
7:52So that doesn't necessarily mean that overs are just going to smash the books.
7:56I assure you will adjust. Mike Tomlin spoke about this on football night in America.
8:01Defenses just aren't getting the work required to be in tip top shape throughout training camp.
8:06They spend a lot of time not hitting the quarterback, limited practices where they don't even tackle.
8:12The offenses have a huge leg up early in the year.
8:15I thought that that that those offenses would struggle because a lot of them didn't play their guys in the preseason.
8:22Clearly, that wasn't the case. And the other thing that really stood out was the teams, the specific teams that gave up all these points.
8:30The Broncos gave up 31, the Texans 36, the Rams 27.
8:33The Eagles gave up 22 to the commanders, 13 of those in the fourth quarter.
8:38These teams were just gassed. So maybe that's altering perception as well, that we had the elite defenses really taking care of business.
8:45Caleb Williams led the Bears to a 22 point win over the Carolina Panthers.
8:49They scored 59 points. He was nearly perfect passing the football, scored four touchdowns in total.
8:54DK predict has him up to 23% to be the MVP.
8:58I've seen it at 12% in other spots, but buy or sell Caleb Williams as the most valuable player.
9:04You have to sell this. This is the biggest sell in the futures market right now.
9:09So we had to lead with Sunday was the case against Caleb Williams, not the case for him as MVP.
9:15MVP is a team accomplishment, individual award, team accomplishment.
9:18Your defense is part of your MVP case. And I know you could twist that and say, well, yeah, but if the
9:25defense is so bad and they give up 40 every week, isn't Caleb going to have to be amazing?
9:31Yeah, but they're going to lose a bunch of those games too.
9:35And if you look at the profile, we know you need the wins.
9:39You need the one or the two seed. There's no way that a defense that gives up that day to Bryce Young.
9:46Sorry, that defense is not going to be for the one seed.
9:50We did the MVP preview before the season. I said on that podcast, Justin Herbert at 10 to one was the worst
9:57MVP bet on the board right now. Justin Herbert is 22 to one and he's 0-1-1.
10:02So that's looking pretty good. Let me update the position.
10:05Caleb Williams is the new worst MVP bet on the board right now.
10:097 to one, 8 to one, 21, 23% at DK predict.
10:12That basically makes him the favorite or second favorite.
10:15That is insane. That's insane. You can't do that after one game against the Panthers, a team that is not going to be good this season.
10:23I don't care if they made the playoffs at 8-9 in the NFC South last year.
10:28And besides, the Bears are a rushing team. They scored six rushing touchdowns this week, highest in 100 years in the NFL.
10:35So this is a team that's going to score a lot of points, but they're going to get up a lot of points too.
10:43And that is not the way to buy MVP stock.
10:46And it's certainly not a way to buy high on MVP.
10:50That is not the version that bats will be giving out on this future show.
10:54You're okay with the idea of buying on the way up, but not necessarily buying at the top, which is what we are seeing right now.
11:03Plus 335 is what this would translate to just simply not enough juice for the squeeze here.
11:08The Chiefs are now up to 54% to win the AFC West after thumping the Broncos on Monday Night Football.
11:14The Chargers all the way down to 18%, a pretty dramatic shift in the market.
11:19Buy or sell, the Chiefs are back. I think the Chiefs might be back.
11:23That was a beatdown on Monday. Denver forgot how to tackle.
11:2728 missed tackles? Did you know that was a real number of missed tackles you could have in an NFL game?
11:33Kenneth Walker, 173 yards, two touchdowns, huge explosives. This is what we thought might happen when you add a star running back to an already good offense.
11:42Look what happened with Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
11:45That is what we saw with Kenneth Walker is explosives, explosives, and a very different Chiefs team.
11:50Not as much shotgun and Mahomes just having to do everything.
11:54Honestly, not a lot of Mahomes at all. The passing game wasn't that good.
11:58They're under center. They're handing the ball off. They're running duo, which you can't do out of shotgun.
12:04Creed Humphrey had a huge game at center. Trey Smith, that right guard.
12:08That line dominated, even though they had a journey in the right tackle and an under-after to rookie left tackle, dominated what was a really good run defense.
12:17The Chiefs had more than double the yardage for the Broncos, almost six yards of play.
12:22They were 11 of 18 on late downs until the kneel downs late versus Denver, 2 of 13 in that spot.
12:28That was domination against a team that won 15 games last year.
12:32And we all know that, you know, they got a little lucky on some of those wins.
12:37But this is a team people still power rated as like a top five team coming into the year as a clear top contender.
12:45And this was a demolition. Bo Nix, four sacks, three fumbles on under four ADOT.
12:50That's a terrible game. And whether you like or don't like Bo Nix, the main thing he's good at is not making
12:57mistakes, not taking sacks and not fumbling. And the Chiefs did that defensively as well.
13:01The Chiefs are good, man. The Chiefs have been good.
13:05Mahomes is back and not even really a big part of why the Chiefs have been good yet.
13:10I think this team is right in the mix with anyone.
13:14Does the lack of Mahomes of it all, I know he had that run that a lot of people are going to
13:21point to, but the lack of passing Mahomes and Kenneth Walker's injury history, that's what gives me pause here with them.
13:27They're 13 to one right now to win the Super Bowl.
13:31If he enhances as a passer, which we know is in his bag, I think I could buy into this, but it
13:38feels like Andy Reid knows, like, I got to keep Pat in my back pocket.
13:42I got to hold him back a little bit because early in that game, first three plays from scrimmage, all Kenneth Walker,
13:49and it just felt like it was all Walker from there.
13:53Mahomes was only one of two quarterbacks this weekend that didn't have a pass attempt go beyond 10 yards.
13:59The other was Cooper Rush. But here's the thing, Brandon.
14:02Upcoming schedule. Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, Chargers. We're talking about buying stock and futures.
14:06That's what this podcast is all about. 5-0 is very possible to start, so maybe we should buy into those Kansas City Chiefs.
14:13Yeah, I like the Mahomes MVP ticket that's still out there.
14:17Not an MVP night on Monday, but I'm fine with that.
14:20You get the win. Sometimes your team gets you the win, and that was your MVP performance.
14:26There are plenty of other games to come to put up some gaudier stats.
14:30The dude hadn't played in even a preseason. Not one snap since tearing his ACL.
14:35I can be okay with you shaking off the rest a little bit.
14:39And look, the receivers are not great there. Like, Travis Kelsey accidentally broke the slowest 59-yard ramper down the field that we've seen in a long time.
14:47That's about it from the passing game. It was not great there.
14:51But if the Chiefs keep doing this thing, Mahomes is going to get credit.
14:56We know how this works in the media. And if the Chiefs are actually going to be top seed in the AFC,
15:02which I think they can be, especially with the schedule like you mentioned, I think as a team you can invest.
15:09Unlike Caleb Williams, I think you're not buying top of the market necessarily.
15:13You can still buy a little bit on the way up.
15:17And now, the moment you've all been waiting for.
15:19Isn't that why you're here? Oh, I can't wait.
15:22Let's look at the big picture here. Let's look at big picture.
15:2616 games to rattle through. This is where we really get into the nitty-gritty of what in the world we should be reacting to.
15:34We've already touched on this game a bit, so we can fly through this one.
15:38But Kansas City wins 31-10 over the Denver Broncos.
15:41What about the team they stomped out? Maybe that's the other way to look at this.
15:46The Broncos overreaction to downgrade them too much. They got the Jags in week two.
15:51We'll save that for another day. But the Broncos, with that missed tackle rate, really, really rough.
15:56The most yards allowed by any defense in a game since 2018 in terms of what they allowed off of those missed tackles.
16:04So what are we doing with the Denver Broncos?
16:06I think we at least have to have some yellow flags up.
16:10It has to be a caution after that one.
16:13But for me, it's not a huge downgrade. But it's because I was already pretty much team downgrade on Denver for two years in a row.
16:21I've never quite believed in this team. So that's always the thing when you're coming to the season.
16:27Here's what I think about a team. Oh, yep, okay, perfect.
16:30That's exactly what I expected. So I must have been right about everything.
16:35That's kind of how I feel about Denver right now.
16:38Except guess what? I wasn't right for two seasons worth of taking the L on Denver.
16:43So I don't get to just be right after one game of it going my direction.
16:48I think you have to be cautious with the team.
16:51They played Jacksonville this week. And that probably is going to be more of a watch and learn game for me.
16:58I will say with the Chiefs, I mentioned Creed Humphrey.
17:01The way that they're blocking, I like buying him for protector of the year at 3% in the prediction market, adding to our position there.
17:09I had him 7% before the season and his odds have dropped.
17:12The way that they're blocking, he's the top center in the league.
17:16And last year in that market, we chose two centers, two guards, and two tackles to be the sixth finalist there.
17:23And I think that he is very realistically, he was a finalist last year.
17:27He could win that award. So to me, in this section, we're kind of looking through and saying, to set up the
17:34rest of the games as we get to them, I'm kind of letting you lob in the hot take reaction.
17:40Here's the game, here's the reaction, and I'm going to hit it out of the park and sometimes think the reaction is real, sometimes fake.
17:48So we kind of gave the reaction on Chiefs real.
17:51I don't know that I have a sure verdict yet on the Broncos.
17:56Well, let's move to the game that feels like it was about three weeks ago at this point.
18:01The Seattle Seahawks 13, the New England Patriots 10.
18:04Seattle picked off Drake May three times and outscored the Pats 13-3 in the second half.
18:09Is regression hitting for both teams pretty hard out of the gate?
18:13It sure does look like it. Yeah, very week one game, like very rusty, ugly, slow feeling game where we were like, well, I guess football is back.
18:22But this isn't really what I was hoping for out of the gates, right?
18:26Seattle basically no offense until like 18 minutes left, no points until then.
18:30I'm texting people like, has a Super Bowl defending champ ever been shut out at home in its following game?
18:37Like that would have been not the way to start out.
18:40Turns out they won the game, but it's a pretty ugly look for both teams.
18:45The story here that we have to talk about is the injuries.
18:49And I actually think the regression injury bug is coming harder for New England here than for Seattle.
18:54Regression and injuries do have something to do with each other.
18:58You just played three, four extra games all the way to the Super Bowl.
19:02And so that, you know, just getting the Super Bowl, you probably were a healthier team.
19:07And regression can mean not being as healthy. So with Darnold, the weird hip injury, like it sounds like something that happens to your grandma or something.
19:16I don't know if we know what exactly to expect out of that.
19:20But Drew Locke, I don't think is a huge downgrade in part because I don't think Sam Darnold is really like this great elite quarterback.
19:28He's a quarterback that has been put in a good position.
19:31I think he's maybe 20th best. Locke is maybe 35th or 40th best as a quarterback.
19:36So it's a downgrade for sure. But Seattle is about defense and special teams and coaching and enough offense.
19:42I think they can still have enough offense with Drew Locke.
19:46And importantly, if ever you had to lose Darnold for a couple games, Seattle escaped with the win that they shouldn't have gotten.
19:53Now it's Arizona and Washington. This is the stretch of anywhere on Seattle's schedule.
19:57If you had to lose Darnold for a couple games, this is when you'd prefer to do it and figure Drew Locke
20:04and everything else Seattle can get you by. They need him back October 11th and 15th.
20:09They have Niners and then four days later at Denver.
20:12So a month from now, can Darnold be back by then?
20:16I think if so, Seattle is going to be okay.
20:19New England, I think, is the more meaningful injury.
20:22A.J. Brown out. Booty got traded. Romeo Dobbs, like MIA in the opener.
20:26So they're going to have to use him more.
20:29But to me, A.J. Brown was supposed to be the guy that changed everything.
20:33That means it changes everything the other way. Now you go from top eight to bottom eight receivers.
20:39You go from top 10 offense to kind of league average at this point.
20:43It's a full point to the spread to me on this receiver downgrade.
20:47Drake May, not great in the opener. Some questions on his deep passing.
20:52And with no A.J., no Trevion, that offense doesn't have a lot of oomph to it right now.
20:57And look at their schedule. As A.J. hits IR, that means four weeks out.
21:02Pittsburgh at Jacksonville at Buffalo next. This is the tough start to the schedule you get if you are a Super Bowl team usually.
21:09That could be one and three. And if you zoom out big picture, think about the way these games ended.
21:15Drake May, boneheaded interception with under 30 seconds left in the corner.
21:19You lose the game. Josh Allen, division rival, boneheaded almost interception.
21:23Oops, it got dropped. Next play touchdown. The Bills win the game.
21:27Those two dueling interception, non-interceptions. That's a full game of the division.
21:30Now you're missing A.J. I think the Pats are already behind the eight ball.
21:35No explosiveness. Ramondre Stevenson, Romeo Dobbs, Hunter Henry is not exactly a way to get down the field quickly.
21:41And that matters a lot in the NFL, especially when you're facing a much tougher schedule moving forward.
21:46The Seattle Seahawks, I'm with you. I'm willing to still buy in on them.
21:51The defense remains dominant. And Sam Darnold shouldn't be out that long.
21:55He did avoid the worst case scenario as far as the hip injury goes.
21:5949ers 27, the Rams 7. The Rams flew in late to Australia.
22:03And boy, did it show. They were out of sorts all afternoon or morning or whenever they were playing that game in Australia.
22:10And now Miles Garrett is hurt and on the shelf.
22:13The dream feels like it's already over for the dream team.
22:17I do think the dream is in big trouble here.
22:20The Niners dominated that game. 27-7. One of the Rams scoring seven points on anyone.
22:25This was a surprising, shocking Niners defense that shut them down.
22:28Not shocking for the Niners offense. We know Shanahan offense is going to be good.
22:33Cal Juszczyk, a lot of motion, a lot of new stuff we saw there.
22:37That's kind of what's expected. This is usually an offense that does well against McVay's team.
22:42Holding them to seven points, though. 57-43% success rate.
22:45If you're a power rankings guy out there, the Niners have to be number one in your power rankings.
22:51You do that to the consensus number one. That has to be it.
22:55And the problem is, this was a technically home division loss for the Rams.
23:00This was a home game in Australia, the way the schedule makers gave it.
23:04And now, everyone in the division is 1-0 and not the Rams.
23:08You're a full game behind. And Miles Garrett does literally nothing in the game.
23:12No tackles, no pressures, no sacks. And now we know why.
23:16He goes on to IR. So that is over a point of spread value without.
23:20That is an edge team that's now a real weakness.
23:24Byron Young will have to see what he looks like without Garrett, without Jared Burst next to him.
23:29Josiah Stewart on the other side in place of Garrett.
23:32It's a big, big downgrade. And now look at the defensive front.
23:36Again, IR means you're out four games at least.
23:39And by the sound of it, maybe longer. Here is the offensive lines coming at you.
23:44Giants, who just look pretty good. Then Denver, Philly, Buffalo.
23:47Those are three of my top eight offensive lines for this season.
23:51Plus, the Giants looking pretty good against a defensive front that's small and missing their guy.
23:56The guy that they built the whole thing around.
23:59If you lose a couple more of these early games for the Rams, for other teams, you can handle it.
24:05Just get 3-3 until the middle of October. It's maybe okay.
24:09The Rams are not other teams. This is Super Bowl or bust.
24:12Their Super Bowl odds drop dramatically. With this loss, the actual loss, and the loss of Garrett, if you lose a few
24:19of those games, you lose the division. If you lose the division, you're on the road the entire playoffs.
24:25Instead of so-fi the entire playoffs, including the Super Bowl, FTN, the guys that put out DVOA, they have the Rams now projected at 9.6 wins.
24:349.6 is not a dream season. It's well below the under 11.5.
24:37I'm calling the verdict on this one very real danger for the Rams' dream season.
24:42Yet they're still plus 650 to win the Super Bowl.
24:45The market is pretty bullish on the Rams. I feel like they're getting this one wrong.
24:50I agree. We're not buying the dip quite yet.
24:53Maybe we'll get there. Arizona 26, the LA Chargers 14.
24:5630% of survivor pools had the Chargers, so that should create some nice leg room for the rest of us.
25:03This is the earliest that the Chargers have ever let us down.
25:06Usually it takes us a few months, but here we are.
25:10Are we already out on the Mike McDaniel experience?
25:13It does sort of feel like it. Yeah, I think the Chargers might have already Chargers' their season away.
25:19This felt a little fluky in real time with the block punt, but watching it back, there's not a lot of fluke about it.
25:26The Cardinals put up almost 400 yards against the Chargers' defense.
25:30We had some question marks going into the year after losing Jesse Minter.
25:34They were 125 yards more, Arizona was, than the Chargers.
25:37They moved the ball pretty well all game. 2-5 in the red zone, or else it might even be worse than 26-14.
25:44So, I'm going to give you two bets coming out of this one.
25:48Here's your first one. Here's a crazy bet. At 125-1, could Arizona win the division?
25:53I don't think so, but Miles Garrett is hurt, and Sam Darnold is hurt.
25:57That's pretty important players in the division. And they're playing Seattle.
26:01If you're Arizona, you get to play Seattle without Darnold this week.
26:04You might get to 2-0. They're about 5% to win the division at FTN.
26:09At 125-1, here's the analysis. No NFL team in history at 1-0 should be 125-1 to win the division.
26:15I don't care who else in the division, who's on the roster.
26:19I'll give you a quarter unit nibble. That's a bet at that number.
26:23But this is about the Chargers. This is a bad loss for the Chargers.
26:27This was the easiest game on their schedule. A home game against the Cardinals team that I know I just bought a
26:34division ticket on, but that is supposed to be bad.
26:37The downgrade on the Chargers is basically a full win.
26:40This was supposed to be a freebie. So, you have to downgrade what this team's future looks like.
26:46I'm not out on the Mike McDaniel offense long-term.
26:49It's clear that it's going to have to figure some things out, though.
26:53They need McConkie healthy. 8.9 yards per attempt passing with him on the field.
26:57Under four without. He's their only real receiver, and he looked really good, and they look good with him.
27:03But the offensive line struggling without their interior guys.
27:06Herbert, not a good game. McDaniel's going to take some time.
27:10McDaniel's going to take some time. Projection for the Chargers at FTN is 7.4 wins.
27:14That's not a playoff team and not even close.
27:17They give them 29% to make the playoffs. That's lower than the Jets and the Giants.
27:22Chargers to miss the playoffs at minus 120. That's the bet.
27:26This is real. The Chargers already are in big, big trouble this season.
27:30Yeah. Hard to argue with that. Their win total going into the year was 10.5, and I was thinking, I'm going to target this after week two.
27:38Because I'll probably at least eliminate the juice on this.
27:41Well, they already lost. So that, because they're Cardinals and the Raiders to open the season.
27:47I thought that their week three would be a nice buying opportunity on a Chargers under.
27:52But that window has unfortunately closed. The Eagles 24.
27:54The Commanders 22. Typical close division game where both teams took turns looking like the better unit.
28:00The Commanders certainly did late in the game. Sean Mannion has taken over as the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles.
28:06And like a lot of other Jalen Hurts-led offenses, they all kind of look the same.
28:11I thought this one was supposed to be so different.
28:15The offense still feels like it's broken. And Saquon Barkley was hitting the backfield far too often.
28:20Yeah, I agree. The offense still has a lot of problems.
28:23Commanders, not a bad start. You wish you'd get the win here.
28:27Some of the metrics think that they were maybe the better team.
28:31Durante Jones defensively, pretty good play calling. A lot of blitzes there.
28:35Jane Daniels, not the greatest stat line, but kind of passes the eye test.
28:39I think you feel pretty okay if you're Washington here.
28:42The Eagles, here's how this worked out. They had four scoring drives.
28:46On those scoring drives, each drive had one long play.
28:49A 46-yard Saquon run and 31, 43, and 64-yard passes.
28:52That was four big explosive plays. That's good. Outside of those four plays, the Eagles had 50 plays for 99 yards.
28:59That is under two yards of play on 50 plays, the bulk of your game.
29:04That's 34% success rate. One out of three plays successful.
29:07That's 28% success rate on early downs, third percentile.
29:10These are terrible, terrible numbers. Saquon, outside of the one run, 15 carries, 41 yards.
29:14Under three a pop. Jalen Hurts, some nice scrambles.
29:17No designed runs. What are we doing? Jalen Hurts, let him run.
29:21This is the whole point of the thing that he's supposed to be good at.
29:26Under center, not as much as we were promised.
29:29The run game is not good. The Sean Manning offense, this is like a D-minus effort in week one.
29:35And now we see a little bit why Landon Diggerson heads to the IR, one of their guards.
29:40He is, in my opinion, their best interior offensive lineman, which is not necessarily the highest praise.
29:46Because Cam Juergens and Tyler Steen are the other two, and they're not that great.
29:50I think you can make a case the Eagles line is kind of the Chargers line now.
29:56We have two pretty good, great bookend tackles. Not a lot in between.
30:00So the good news for Philly is you start with Washington and now Tennessee.
30:04So the Eagles are one and no. At the end of the day, we can say what we think happened in the game, but they got the win.
30:13And if they do it against Tennessee, they can weather the storm.
30:17That's what the Eagles have done under Sirianni is weather the storm.
30:21But is the Eagles offense broken? Yeah. Until we see otherwise, that's very real.
30:25I already bet the under against the Titans. I don't know if it's a personnel issue or if it's a play-calling issue,
30:32a Jalen Hurts issue, because it does seem like the offense always sort of looks like this.
30:37And now with an offensive line that's sub-elite, you're really going to see them stuck in the mud often.
30:43The Eagles did have 112 yards on deep completions in this game, which does feel like at least an improvement in that regard.
30:51Shout out to Dontavian Wicks for being the guy that carried the load as far as that goes.
30:56The Giants 28. The Cowboys 20. That worst to first bet on the G-men looking pretty sharp right about now.
31:03Are you counting your cash yet? I mean, it's only one week, but Giants Island, man, this is how we drew it up.
31:10Patrick Ricard at fullback. Isaiah Likely at tight end.
31:13John Harbrook brings over the older Ravens. And man, did they look the part in week one.
31:18This smash mouth, ball control offense. 9 of 11 on third down as a team just staying ahead of the chains.
31:2599th percentile success rate. 150 yards more than Dallas.
31:28I thought Jackson Dart looked steady, in control, good decision making.
31:31Miles better than what he looked last year. Guess what?
31:34Getting a little help from his coaches and his team.
31:37Imagine. Imagine that for the Giants. The defense limited explosives really well.
31:41The special teams was better. We talked about that with the Giants.
31:45This was everything we wanted. Let me just tell you some of the drive charts for the Giants in this game.
31:52The New York football Giants. 10 plays, 83 yards, touchdown.
31:557 for 28 and a punt. Not great, but not bad.
31:588 for 64. Ends in a fumble. No points.
32:016 for 55 and a touchdown just before halftime in 30 seconds.
32:05That was really shocking. Right before halftime. Horrible Dallas defense.
32:08Then after halftime, 12 plays, 74 yards, touchdown in 8 minutes and a second.
32:1213 plays, 65 and a touchdown in 8 minutes, 11 seconds.
32:16Just grinding the clock out. And then 12 for 47 to end the game.
32:20They just did everything that you need to. This is the profile of what you want to be if you're the Giants.
32:27You're not going to go and put up 59 like the Bears.
32:31That is not what this team is capable of.
32:34Dallas actually scored a touchdown on all the second half possessions.
32:37It just didn't matter because they had two. They had two possessions in the second half.
32:42They had six possessions basically all game. Actually, Dallas offense, not that worried.
32:46I thought Dallas offense was pretty good. The defense, very worried.
32:50They got shredded by a pretty straightforward game plan.
32:53They lost Malik Hooker at safety without much depth.
32:56They got pushed around here. This is the Giants formula you want.
32:59Run the ball, limit possessions, hit a few explosives.
33:02By the way, Giants Island, the Giants play Monday night against the Rams.
33:06Last year, the Rams lost to the Panthers in the regular season and nearly again in the playoffs.
33:12A team that ran the ball, limited possessions, and try to shorten the game.
33:16That's the script. That's what the Giants want to do.
33:19Giants Island, I think we're real. I'm with you on Monday Night Football.
33:24Let's hop back in on the New York Giants.
33:26They're still plus 375 to win the division. The Cowboys at 3-1.
33:30It feels like a good time to buy in.
33:33I mean, you're already in on the Giants. You probably don't really feel the need to double dip.
33:39But if you haven't gotten into the NFC East, I think both of those teams are good buys right now.
33:45We talked about the fact that defenses out of the gate are the side of the ball that struggled.
33:51We all expect, at least most of us, expect the Dallas defense to be better this year.
33:56Well, it's going to take a minute, clearly. I mean, that's the side of the ball that right now has been on skates across the league.
34:05I just wouldn't sell Dallas stock just yet. I still like this Dallas Cowboys team.
34:09Yeah, I agree. I'm not necessarily out long-term on Dallas.
34:12I think if you are thinking how Brandon's thinking and you're like, I kind of like Dallas, I kind of like the Giants, both of them.
34:21Maybe you just go the prediction marker route. Maybe you go no on Philly to win the division.
34:26Maybe that's the way. And that way you just kind of get both the other teams combined if you haven't played yet.
34:33Ravens 41, Colts 23. This was pure domination, if not for Jonathan Taylor's brilliance.
34:38This would have been the biggest blowout of the weekend.
34:41Daniel Jones, woof. 19 of 31, 166 yards and a touchdown in an interception.
34:45And something to watch moving forward, perhaps for prop bettors, is that he did not run really at all.
34:51So that's something to consider. Are the Ravens the best team in the league?
34:56You said the 49ers. Actually, the Ravens are like a smidge higher for me in my power ratings.
35:01Yeah. Again, the difference between power ratings and power rankings.
35:04If you're power ranking teams, I think the Niners have to be at the top right now based on it's been one
35:11game and they beat the team we all thought was the best.
35:15Power ratings. I do have Baltimore slightly ahead. This wasn't even as close as 18 points.
35:20Look, we just did the drive charts for the Giants.
35:23Listen to the difference on the Ravens. First five drives.
35:27Listen to the play numbers. Three plays. Touchdown. Six plays.
35:30Touchdown. Ten plays. Fifty nine yards. Turnover on downs.
35:33But they had a touchdown called back. Five plays.
35:35Touchdown. Three plays. Touchdown. Explosive plays. That's what we saw out of Baltimore.
35:39Not out of the Giants. That's what we saw the Ravens doing.
35:43Zay Flowers. 150 yards and a score all in the first half.
35:47Got to get the hamstring right for him. But they had eight explosive plays just the first half.
35:53Declan Doyle's offense looks like the real thing. Highest under center in Lamar's career.
35:5767 percent. Two thirds of his snaps. That is setting you up for Derrick Henry.
36:02His huge game is setting you up for play action and some big, big plays down the field.
36:08And they did that with no receivers for half the game.
36:11They did that with three new offensive linemen in the interior.
36:14I thought the defense was good. They hit some big plays.
36:18A lot of blitzing under Jesse Minter. The special teams was good.
36:22This to me looks like the whole package. And to me, this was about Baltimore and not Indy.
36:27But to do that against a team that we think is at least like a 500-ish team potentially in a tough environment to start the year.
36:36New coaches. New interior offensive line. Baltimore, you've got my attention.
36:39I think everything is again on the table. Although it seems like it's always on the table for the Ravens.
36:45Maybe actually sit down and have some dinner this time.
36:49You're a little skeptical, I think, on the Colts.
36:51Do you think this was a little bit more about India than Baltimore?
36:55I think it was a lot about both. I mean, I think most of the time when you see a disparity that's
37:02close to 20 points, we can really tell two different stories.
37:06But I do think that the Colts have a floor that's much lower than what we may have thought going into the season.
37:13This defense is going to be a problem for them.
37:16And if Daniel Jones isn't able to help the offense be much more creative, Josh Downs wasn't involved.
37:22Michael Pittman's gone. He's in Pittsburgh now. And so they're heavily reliant on Alec Pierce becoming a star because they paid him to do that.
37:30And Tyler Warren taking another step and becoming a dominant tight end.
37:34It's just asking a lot, especially when you have defenses that know exactly what to do.
37:39Now, you're not going to bottle up Jonathan Taylor for a full 60 minutes, but how to defend the Colts?
37:45Pretty easy path forward. So I would be lower on this team or low enough to put them at the bottom of
37:52the division if they weren't in it with the Tennessee Titans because they are battling the Dolphins.
37:57Uh, and the, who's the other team that that's in that, that, that grouping, the Dolphins Browns.
38:03Thank you. With Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, 12% to win MVP on DK, which right now looks to be the best price
38:10in the market with all that Caleb Williams and Jonathan, Josh Allen loves could be a good buying opportunity.
38:16If you haven't gotten in yet on Lamar Jackson, the Jags 34, the Browns 10, that was the other team that's in the toilet.
38:23Is anyone surprised Trevor Lawrence is just where we left them in 2025?
38:27Yeah. That big breakout down the season looks legit.
38:30I'm going to call it not real on that.
38:33I'm going to give you almost no analysis on this game because the Browns don't merit any of that.
38:39They had 23 plays for 65 yards in the first half.
38:42This is not a real professional team right now.
38:45I cannot take away nearly anything. I know Trevor Lawrence looked awesome for touchdowns, great metrics, good for Parker Washington.
38:52He was really good. I just, this is like when Alabama schedules Furman in the season opener.
38:57This is not a real football game. Congrats to Jacksonville on getting it.
39:01We're going to get to our weekly trading segment in a little bit where you might buy or sell a team.
39:08This is a sell spot on Jacksonville. They're not as good as they looked in this game because nobody is as good as they look against Cleveland.
39:16Up next is at Denver, New England at Cincy, then Philly and Houston in London back to back as quote home games for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
39:24So this is not real. We've learned nothing. It's a long way to go.
39:29The Jacksonville Jaguars. We don't know anything about you yet.
39:32Cleveland stinks. Trevor Lawrence, 7% to an MVP. I mean, he was on the doorstep of it.
39:37If he had gotten off to a hotter start, he would have been a big part of that conversation a year ago.
39:44But let's talk about a game that actually has some substance to it.
39:48Bill's 36 Texans 31. The Texans defense. If you're just playing overreaction theater looks so unbelievably overrated, slid to the top of
39:55everybody's defensive rankings before the season started. They gave up 36 points and Josh Allen did whatever he wanted.
40:01They played man. They played a lot of zone.
40:04He diced up both formations for the Houston Texans.
40:07Did they just run into Josh Allen on the wrong day?
40:10Or is this defense as overrated as they looked?
40:13I don't think that they're overrated. I think they ran into the best player in the world doing the best player in
40:20the world things that Josh Allen can do. I ended up that I end up kind of not taking a ton away
40:27for either team's result from this game. Like, I think both of them have a lot of things to feel good about.
40:34Kind of a coin flippy game. We talked about Josh Allen nearly throws an interception on one play and then goes right
40:41back to the same guy, Josh Palmer, the next play for a touchdown that he throws between two guys under two minutes
40:48left already in a field goal position and take the lead.
40:51Nobody in the world is hitting that throw except Josh Allen and maybe like two, three other guys.
40:57Houston still driving with a chance to win. They get it down inside like the 25-yard line and then a strip sack to end it.
41:05So I think both teams can feel all right here.
41:08The Bills have to feel good, obviously. 409 yards, but almost eight yards of play.
41:13Again, explosives, explosives here. 21% explosive play rate for Buffalo.
41:16That is the most allowed by the D'Amico-Oriens Texans ever by almost 5%.
41:20So it's a huge amount and it's not necessarily brand new.
41:24Houston was getting a league average at explosives. They're great play to play, down to down, great success rate.
41:30But they have allowed some explosives and that is what Buffalo exploited.
41:33A lot of 13 personnel, a lot of three tight ends on the field.
41:38Only one of them's not really a tight end.
41:41Dalton Kincaid mashed in this game. 130 yards, split out as basically a receiver.
41:45And I know the focus will be on DJ Moore because he's new and had 100 yards.
41:50But I thought Kincaid was the star for Buffalo in this game.
41:54Like you said, a lot of zone, not usually what Houston does here.
41:58A little confusing on that one. I'm going to try to not overreact too much to the defense because it's a hair away.
42:05There's the one long throw down the right sideline.
42:08Houston bites on it, goes for the big play, misses by an inch, and it turns into a touchdown.
42:14There's that late interception, non-interception swing. Again, these are one of one plays.
42:18This is Josh Allen doing what only he can.
42:21So sure, if Houston plays Buffalo next week, I will buy the concern for Houston's defense.
42:26But until they play Josh Allen again, I still think this defense is going to be just fine against all the other not-Josh Allens in the world.
42:35And offensively, pretty good for Houston. I was worried about Buffalo's defense.
42:39I can't say I'm any less worried now. Houston had 12, 13, and 13 play touchdown drives.
42:44That's not normally what Houston does. Just kind of running the ball with some confidence.
42:49They went for fourth down and ran the ball twice and made it.
42:53That's not a thing Houston normally gets to do.
42:56I think both teams can feel pretty good here.
42:58And so to kind of put a cap on the division, if we're selling high on Jacksonville, if we're buying low a
43:05little bit on Houston, I think this is a great spot where Jacksonville at Denver, they could lose the game.
43:12Houston, tough one against Cincy, but they could win that one.
43:15They're the home favorite there. FTN has the Texans at 50% to win the division.
43:20We can bet them at 41% in the prediction market.
43:23I'm going to bet that. 41%. It's about a plus 144.
43:26If you really like Houston, they're 5% at DK predict right now to win the Super Bowl.
43:32I think that might be a touch low as well.
43:35FTN has Houston Texans, the third most likely Super Bowl champion right now.
43:39The defense is going to be fine. If the offense is improved, like it looked, I think the Texans are a real thing.
43:46This is not real on Texans defense being overrated.
43:49This is just Josh Allen being Josh Allen. I'm buying Houston stock.
43:53Josh Allen does have a tendency to do this, to some really good defenses over the course of his career.
43:59And the dam was bound to break eventually because Houston has just dominated this matchup against Josh Allen.
44:05But if you think about some of the things that could have gone their way, they didn't collect a fumble.
44:11They tried to jump a route that went for a touchdown to DJ Moore in the first half.
44:17That could have been an interception against non-elite quarterbacks.
44:20They dropped the interception, Kamari Lasseter, in the end zone.
44:23That would have ended the game. We'd be having a completely different conversation about the Texans.
44:28So you just can't, in this betting world, get married to results.
44:32And I feel like a lot of people are doing that today.
44:36Vikings 39, Packers 22. What the hell was this game?
44:3922 to 0 in the fourth quarter for the Minnesota Vikings.
44:42Carson Wentz had to organize the offense three series into the game after Kyler was decapitated.
44:47A really scary situation. He didn't actually lose his head, but it looked like it.
44:52Green Bay, that last place in the division ticket.
44:55Now that is looking fresh on both of our betting sheets.
44:58I'm excited about this one. Yeah, this was a super weird game.
45:02Hard to take a ton away, but I think if you zoom out, you have to feel less bad about the Packers.
45:09If we're being honest, they almost doubled up the Vikings in yardage.
45:13Six and a half yards of play to under four for Minnesota.
45:1725% success rate on early downs for the Vikings.
45:19It's just a lot of mistakes for the Packers.
45:22Almost 100 penalty yards, one of four in the red zone, two turnovers late, two turnovers on downs as well.
45:29So I don't think you can love the Packers.
45:31I've not loved this team at all, but I think be careful with the Vikings too.
45:36The floor is defense, 82, 80 something-ish percent blitz rate, depending on where you grab it.
45:41That is a cry for help. That is not like, wow, Brian Flores, what a crazy man.
45:47That is, our defense can't stop you anyway, so we're just going to go for crazy and try to make a play.
45:54And late in the game, they made a play twice in a row, and in five minutes, that went crazy.
46:00It flipped the entire game. And as a Vikings fan, I loved it.
46:04As a betting analyst, that is not the way to live in Minnesota.
46:08So I think you don't feel as bad about the Packers as this looked, but I don't feel great about the Vikings either.
46:16I want to say not real on Packers panic.
46:18They're going to be okay. They've got the Jets and the Falcons next, so they should be able to bounce back a little bit.
46:26And some doubts really on the whole division here.
46:29So I think we have a long way to go in the NFC North.
46:33All right, let's fly through the rest of these.
46:36Bears 59, Panthers 37. Are we just going to blind bet every Bears over at this point?
46:4196 total points scored in this game? Yeah, I think so.
46:45The Bears scored 14 every quarter, but they also allowed a touchdown every quarter.
46:49Over 1,000 yards of offense. To me, the story here, we knew Chicago's offense was going to be good.
46:55We know Ben Johnson can do that. Carolina, 361 yards and three touchdowns by Bryce Young, 138 to Jalen Coker.
47:02I'm impressed by 50, and I'm a lot more worried about 37 to Bryce Young.
47:06I think that's fun for fantasy. It's fun for overs.
47:09It's definitely an overs team, either over team total or over in the game.
47:14Books are already pricing it, and I don't think you can go high enough yet, but I've got to be a little
47:21cautious about Bears futures on their own. Yeah, the Panthers didn't offer much in terms of a pass rush, just 16% pressure
47:28rate, worse of any team in week one. Lions win in overtime by one against the New Orleans Saints.
47:34Who do you come away feeling worse about? Tyler Shuck because he looked like a UFL quarterback for two quarters in this game.
47:41Or the Lions, who were up 21 to nothing and then almost lost.
47:45They probably should have lost. I think that was PI in the back of the end zone with that two-point conversion, but whatever.
47:52Game is already in the book. Either of these teams, it feels like I could sell stock on either one based on the result.
48:00Yeah, I think I don't have a ton of takeaways on this game.
48:04I feel like both teams blew it and both teams kind of didn't deserve the win and both did deserve the win.
48:11It became a coin flip, which is what happens when you have a one-point overtime game.
48:16I don't think you want to be a coin flip game as a home Lions team against the Saints, and maybe that's the takeaway.
48:24Chuck, five sacks, two interceptions on 56 passes. I don't think that's the script you necessarily want.
48:29The Saints had 100 more yards here. I think they're probably slightly the better team, but three turnovers cost them the game.
48:36Right after halftime, they had two turnovers in like a four or five play stretch, and Detroit went 7-0 up to 21-0.
48:43That's kind of a fake lead. Like they blew a fake lead based on the turnovers, and then the Saints were the better team and got it back.
48:52The takeaway here is overtime for the Lions, and now off of week one when you're not even up to regular par
48:59yet on your conditioning, Thursday night in Buffalo, the stats and trends for the off the overtime coming on a short week, not great for Detroit.
49:07Bengals 33, Bucs 27. The Bengals were much more impressive than the six-point win would suggest.
49:12They really controlled this game. There was an uncharacteristic pick six that Joe Burrow threw to Josiah Trotter.
49:17Are you selling your Bucs stock? I'm going to disagree with you.
49:21I actually think that this is the overreaction game of the week.
49:25I think the Bucs look perfectly fine, and frankly, they were the better team in this game.
49:30A lot of post-game win expectancy models had the Buccaneers as high as 60 or 65% to win.
49:36This was just about insane, insane fumble luck. Tampa Bay fumbled four times.
49:40Look, fumbling is a problem, especially for Baker Mayfield.
49:43He had three of those. The Bengals recovered all four.
49:46Fumbles are 50-50, generally speaking. Three of those fumbles were on three straight Buccaneers drives.
49:51One in the red zone. One went for six the other way.
49:55So those fumbles added up to negative 22 EPA for Tampa Bay in a one-score game.
50:00That's literally three touchdowns of value that the fumbles lucked their way towards Cincinnati.
50:04And I know they did get the pick six to close the gap, but Tampa Bay's offense, they actually never even got stopped.
50:11They didn't punt once the whole game. Cincinnati had the only punt of the game.
50:16The Buccaneers either drove the ball into scoring range or turned it over.
50:20But Baker's fumbles were worth minus five, minus six, and minus seven EPA each.
50:25So that alone was 33% win probability. I thought Cincinnati was fine.
50:28I don't want to take too much away for the Bengals here.
50:32I thought the line looked pretty good. I thought the defense, the talk about how great the defense is.
50:38No, that's just fumbles. Your fumble luck there, that's not a big story to me.
50:43All the offense of under center and we're changing everything.
50:46No, they didn't do any of that crap. That was all a lie like it is every single year.
50:52They had like five passes under center. It's going to go away.
50:56It's not a real thing. The Bengals are still the Bengals.
50:59Look, they won the game. I appreciate that about them.
51:02But I feel fine about the Bucs. I'm going to double down actually.
51:07The whole division is 0-1-1. So they're still leading the division right now.
51:11This was my favorite bet before the season. I'm going to take the Bucs in the division.
51:1634% of the prediction market, plus 194 implied. FTN has the Bucs at 60% in the division.
51:21I have them even higher than that. This is a fine loss.
51:25They lost by one score on the road as underdogs.
51:28It's totally fine with me. And now this week, they play the Browns.
51:32They get a bye week in week two. The worst offensive line in the league against Todd Bowles.
51:38Deshaun Watson's funeral, in all likelihood, at plus 194, 34%.
51:41This is still a spot to, if you haven't played yet, join us.
51:45I bet this for my biggest bet of the preseason.
51:48I'm going to add to it. I'm doubling down Bucs in the division in the NFC South.
51:54Boy, not a lot has changed through one week in the season with all of these teams dropping one in week one.
52:01A lot more to be said about the NFC South in the future.
52:05Let's go through Jets, Titans, 23 to 10. The Jets come out on top, plus 450 to make the playoffs, roughly 18%,
52:12depending on what outlet you're looking at. Third easiest schedule in the NFL this year, and they look competent.
52:18So I'm kind of in on that. Maybe my biggest overreaction, I kind of like the Jets going into the season as a sneaky team.
52:26I really like them now, and I know they played Tennessee, but this is where I'm hook, line, sinker on the Jets.
52:33Yeah, pretty dominant and comfortable win for the Jets.
52:35It really could have been like 27-3 right after halftime.
52:39They coasted in this one. To me, this is more about the Titans.
52:43Their offense, just absolute trash. Until they had a 65-yard touchdown in garbage time.
52:47Up until that, 40 plays for 130 yards. 3.2 yards of play.
52:51Six first downs until the garbage time drive. Against the Jets!
52:54Cam Ward, under 100 yards against the Jets! I don't know what Brian D'Abel is doing here.
53:0040 passes and 10 runs in this game. 78% shotgun on early downs.
53:04Just, we talked about the unholy tridumvirate of coaches, and Brian D'Abel was like, yo, I got this in week one.
53:10Let me show you just how tridumvirate we can be.
53:14The Titans can't move the ball on the Jets.
53:16Here's who the Titans play next. Eagles, Giants, Ravens, and Texans.
53:20Get ready for unders and team total unders on the Titans.
53:23I don't think this is about the Jets. This is about the Titans.
53:28Well, speaking of plotting offenses, how about the Steelers and the Falcons?
53:3120-13. TJ Watt making just enough plays for the Steelers to win in an offense that is uglier than a bowling shoe.
53:38So, feels like the Steelers are the Steelers. Yeah, you know when people say, no offense, but they're talking about this game.
53:45No offense, but is this game. You're referring to this.
53:48It was terrible. There's nothing to say. 37 and 34% success rate.
53:52EPA per play, minus .25 and minus .36. I don't even need to tell you who's which one.
53:58They're all terrible. Nothing good happened. And if you have Cooper Rush, your third string quarterback, okay, fine.
54:03We'll live with that. Aaron Rodgers is not supposed to be doing that for you.
54:08The best thing you could do in this game was punt the ball back so your defense could get on the field.
54:15This is the same old Steelers, defense and no offense.
54:18Yeah. Number one EPA per play on defense this week, the Falcons.
54:22Oddly enough. The Raiders 27, Dolphins 13. The Dolphins are actually worse than I thought that they would be.
54:28Well, I thought Malik Willis looked okay, but there's just, they're so easy to, it's like the Colts, but worse.
54:34Like they're just so easy to game plan for.
54:37Take away A-chan and what are they going to do?
54:40It's a, it's a toothless team. Yeah. A really rough plan to Malik Willis, only 28% under center on early down second highest pistol rate over 11, eight.
54:49None of that makes sense. That is a one-off gimmick Malik Willis.
54:53That's what happens when he starts for green Bay for a game.
54:57Not when you had the entire off season to plan for your new quarterback.
55:01You went out and got 20% success rate rushing 15 run plays to 40 passes with Malik Willis and A-chan.
55:07What are you doing? Like this doesn't make any sense.
55:11And this was against a team that I had 31st defensively ahead of only the Dolphins.
55:16So I think we're in a long, long season from Miami, five sacks from Malik Willis.
55:21The coaching staff does not look up for it.
55:24I think the Dolphins are in the fish tank already.
55:27So to review, Brandon Anderson likes the Chargers to miss the playoffs, still a minus 120 Texans win the AFC South at
55:3442% and the Bucs to win the NFC South at 35%, not selling stock on those Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
55:40More coming up on the future show. But right now, a quick reminder of where you can bet all of this action, the Draft Kings sports app.
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57:53Power Slap 23 is live and free on YouTube on Thursday, September 17th.
57:57Dana White is bringing Power Slaps to Texas for the first time on the campus of Texas Tech University.
58:03Two massive title fights headline the card, including slap fighting legend Wolverine.
58:07Also on the card is former WWE Champion Jake Hager and the debut of former UFC Heavyweight Chris Barnett.
58:13You can watch Power Slap 23 for free on Power Slaps YouTube channel.
58:17Thursday, September 17th for the first time from Texas.
58:20Power Slaps biggest card of the year. Get it while it's hot.
58:24How long am I supposed to keep it? For a week or so?
58:28Buy low, sell high. Time for our weekly trading segment.
58:31I am your weekly stock analyst, Brandon Kravitz. And here we have my favorite buying opportunity that we will then look to sell at a later date.
58:39I bought into this in the preseason. I'm buying more now so that I can sell some later so that we're not
58:46stuck with an old stock by the end of the season with no return.
58:51Sonny Stiles, defensive rookie of the year at 10%.
58:54He already flashed his brilliance in week one. He had one of the highlight plays of the weekend from any rookie in the NFL.
59:01Blew past the offensive line. Saquon Barkley picks him up as a blocker.
59:05Just gets absolutely wrecked, leading to a Sonny Stiles sack.
59:08After Frank Louvoo left the game, he played every snap in the second half.
59:13One sack, two tackles for loss. And they get the Cowboys this week in that 4 o'clock window.
59:18Pass happy bunch with a running back that doesn't break tackles in Javante Williams.
59:23This is on national display. He will shine, and you will never see 10% again.
59:28So we're going to buy in now. The schedule does stiffen up a little bit later on in the season, and I
59:35think there are a lot of rookies that can make some noise.
59:38So buying Sonny Stiles now and selling probably by the week seven buy.
59:42Yeah, I like Sonny Stiles. That hit that he had this weekend, like you said, man, that was maybe the highlight of
59:49the weekend as far as just old school hits.
59:52I think you've got the right market here and even the exact right price, but the wrong guy.
59:58I'm going to buy Reuben Bain stock, the Bucs edge rusher.
60:01Not because of what we saw in week one.
60:04You want the highlights for Reuben Bain there. You just saw them.
60:08That's it. Nothing happened. No tackles. No pressures. No QB hits.
60:11And guess what happened? His price plummeted down to 10%.
60:15He was the favorite a week ago, and he just had one bad game.
60:19It's a long season. This is overreaction in the market because the Bengals offensive line, pretty solid.
60:24Amarius Mims swallowed him up. Amarius Mims is the best lineman on that team.
60:29You know who doesn't have a great offensive line?
60:32The Cleveland Browns. The team that the Bucs are playing now.
60:35Who have the worst line in the league. Let's find out what Bain does after that.
60:40I don't think we're going to get this price again at 10%.
60:44And again, as we send Deshaun Watson out the door so we can get to Shadir Sanders after that.
60:50We'll see if he even finishes that game. So I bet before the season, David Bailey, he was the second favorite behind Bain.
60:57I'm going to take this chance to add Bain to my portfolio.
61:0110%. We get those two guys together basically to come by in like plus 300 now.
61:06I think I'm set up pretty well. You've got your linebacker.
61:09I don't mind it. I'm going to play Bain.
61:12I like my edge rushers at the defensive awards.
61:15I am a little bit skeptical that this one sees the finish line, but I think he's going to continue.
61:21He came in as perhaps the most polished defensive player out of the draft for a defense that needs him to be
61:28successful, but it is tough for those interior linebackers to really get home on an award like that.
61:34I like the way that you and I looked at this, by the way, because these are the two ways to bet into the futures market.
61:42Once the season starts, I'm betting into an under reaction.
61:45I think the line should have shifted more on Sonny styles from where it was at.
61:50It was eight to one before the season, seven to one after he looked like the best rookie in the best rookie on defense in the NFL.
61:59You're betting the overreaction for Ruben Bain. And those are the two ways to, uh, to do this BA let's end on one thing.
62:07What's the one thing that you want to take with you into week two and beyond some parting wisdom before we wrap up the pod.
62:14So we talked about all the overreactions from week one, as we had to week two, let me just give you four
62:21quick trends that are all kind of related telling you, begging you to not overreact to week one.
62:27So here are trends from just week two since 2014 road dogs off a double digit loss, 24 and five against the
62:34spread, 83% cover rate that would apply this week to Miami Cleveland and Indianapolis.
62:38The teams you don't want to bet, but the trend says you might have to put underdogs of three, seven points that
62:45failed to cover same timeframe, 70% against the spread.
62:48That one's Detroit Indy again, and Tennessee. How about week two trends when both teams are 0 and 1, you still need to back the bad team there.
62:57Underdogs that lost by a touchdown or more against a one score loser, 26 and five against the spread, 84% cover rate.
63:04That's the Browns again. Underdogs against a team that lost as an underdog last week, 42, 17 and two against the spread, 71%.
63:11Browns again and the Falcons. So one thing you need to remember is sometimes in week two, you got to back the team.
63:18Nobody else wants to back. And that is the gross way to make money in NFL betting or any betting really.
63:25And that is the thing to remember as you start your week two prep this week.
63:30Brandon, we're going to end up betting the Browns, aren't we?
63:34Listen, I bet the, I bet the box minus six on the look ahead last week and I'm out.
63:40I like my minus six. Browns eight and a half, nine.
63:43Go ahead. Y'all figure it out. I gave you the trends.
63:46I let you make your decision before at the minus six.
63:50I'm out. You figure out the eight and nine for yourself.
63:53More popular survivor pick this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the San Francisco 49ers.
63:58Both are in sort of rough positions because the Browns fit all these trends that I don't want to bet against.
64:05But, and then the 49ers are the ones that have to deal with all this jet lag, even though they're playing against the Miami Dolphins.
64:13So there's a lot to, there'll be a lot to unpack on next week's show about the way that we overreacted to things in the betting market.
64:21I can't wait to chop it up with you again, Brandon.
64:25This was a lot of fun. Yeah, we had a lot of fun.
64:29We got in under an hour. We gave you, I think, six or seven bets along the way.
64:34It's futures Tuesday. We'll be back every week this year.
64:38Appreciate you hanging out on the future show. Back at it early on Friday for Brandon's playground, shoots, ladders, parlays in the
64:45works for week two in the NFL. Plus the touchdown show will be available Thursday evening.
64:50Jill Gallant absolutely demolished week one. Catch me on the favorites with Kendra Middleton as we locked in our five plays on the Draft Kings contest on Thursday.
64:58And I will probably try and force the Browns in there.
65:02And oh, if you're not bet syncing on the Action app, you're missing a golden opportunity.
65:07Don't waste these precious moments in your life. He's Brandon Anderson.
65:10I'm Brandon Kravitz. We're Brandon 1.0 and 2.0. Until next time.
65:14Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
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65:45Find a beginner class near you at tryfencing.org. That's tryfencing.org.
65:49It's football season, and Vizio mini-LED TVs are here to turn your living room into the front row of the stadium.
65:55Watch every play come to life in breathtaking realism on a 55-inch or 65-inch mini-LED TV.
66:00Plus, crank your favorite game day tunes on the iHeartRadio app, built right into your Vizio TV.
66:06Big screens, big picture, and a totally immersive experience.
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66:39Download it for free. Power Slap 23 is live and free on YouTube on Thursday, September 17th.
66:44Dana White is bringing Power Slaps to Texas for the first time on the campus of Texas Tech University.
66:50Two massive title fights headline the card, including slap fighting legend Wolverine.
66:54Also on the card is former WWE Champion Jake Hager and the debut of former UFC heavyweight Chris Barnett.
67:00You can watch Power Slap 23 for free on Power Slaps YouTube channel.
67:04Thursday, September 17th for the first time from Texas.
67:07Power Slaps biggest card of the year. This is the Dan Levitard Show.
67:11This is Dan Levitard and I've been doing this for more than two decades.
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67:26Monday through Friday, I show up and talk about sports.
67:29Listen to the Dan Levitard Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever it is that you get your podcasts.
67:36You get your podcasts.
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