NFL Week 1 Betting Preview
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 48 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 9, 2026
Published
Wed, September 9, 2026
34
Player insights
30
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian KirkMike EvansRicky PearsallSam DarnoldA.J. BrownAmon-Ra St. BrownBrock BowersC.J. StroudD.J. MooreDalton KincaidDavid MontgomeryDeshaun WatsonDrake MayeGeorge Kittle
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveDepth Chart8:48
The Patriots upgraded their wide receiver room by adding A.J. Brown, which is expected to help the offense perform better against the Seahawks.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveMatchup113:31
Amon-Ra St. Brown is positioned for a potentially huge game against the Saints, as the Saints are expected to use Jonas Sanker in the nickel role. Rogers notes this is a difficult matchup for Sanker in his first real action.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveBreakout43:03
Matt Rogers describes Brock Bowers as 'unguardable' and a top-tier talent who was hindered by health issues throughout his previous season.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
NegativeProjection45:32
Matt Rogers and the co-host discuss CJ Stroud's historical struggles in the first two weeks of the season (0-6 ATS) and his need to bounce back from a poor playoff performance, noting he is a monster in the first half.
Insight pageChristian Kirk
NegativeInjury20:37
The 49ers are dealing with wide receiver injuries, including the loss of Christian Kirk.
Insight pageNegativeInjury33:54
Matt Rogers notes that the team is dealing with significant wide receiver injuries, specifically mentioning that Christian Kirk has already been lost to injury.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveRole40:05
Matt Rogers notes the addition of DJ Moore to the Bills, expressing hope that he can provide more explosiveness and open up the field for Josh Allen.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveInjury40:14
Matt Rogers confirms Dalton Kincaid is healthy heading into the matchup against the Texans.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeRole42:33
Matt Rogers notes the Texans brought in David Montgomery to help establish a complementary run game, which the team has struggled to achieve previously.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeProjection105:29
Matt Rogers expresses significant skepticism regarding Deshaun Watson, noting his recent performance has been "incredibly inept." While acknowledging the Browns have talented skill position players, Rogers suggests the team may be forced to start Watson due to salary cap implications rather than merit, and he is unwilling to back him in Week 1.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection12:28
Doug Kazarian expects improvement from Drake Maye, noting that he was playing through injuries in the Super Bowl and is unlikely to perform that poorly again.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeInjury20:20
There is uncertainty regarding George Kittle's status and effectiveness for the 49ers, with concerns that he may be on a snap count or less explosive due to injury.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeUsage114:55
While the Lions' offense is expected to be high-performing, Rogers notes concerns regarding the offensive line's stability, specifically mentioning interior pressure as a potential issue for Jared Goff.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeMatchup11:14
Christian Gonzalez performed well against Jaxon Smith-Njigba during their previous matchup, effectively limiting him on standard dropbacks.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection118:36
Joe Burrow is finally entering the season healthy with the same five starting offensive linemen returning. Rogers notes the team is trying to unlock the offense by having Burrow play under center more, though there may be some growing pains.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveProjection54:16
Matt Rogers highlights Jonathan Taylor as a strong candidate for Offensive Player of the Year at 20-1 or 22-1 odds, expecting the Colts' offense to click.
Insight pageJordan Love
NegativeProjection60:29
Matt Rogers points out that Jordan Love's performance metrics drop significantly when he is under pressure, which is a concern given the Packers' weak offensive line.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeMatchup38:51
Matt Rogers highlights that Josh Allen has struggled historically against the Texans, holding a 1-4 record (0-4 in Houston) and facing a defense that has effectively used cover-one looks and spies to limit his success.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury59:11
Matt Rogers notes the absence of Josh Jacobs as a significant factor impacting the Packers' offensive outlook for their matchup.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection111:46
Rogers is highly optimistic about Justin Herbert's potential in the new Chargers offense, believing that Mike McDaniel's scheme will "unlock" him. He expects the offense to score at will, provided the offensive line stays healthy.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveRole54:46
Matt Rogers views the addition of Keenan Allen as a positive move for the Colts, expecting him to serve as a reliable third-down chain-mover.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeInjury10:35
Kenneth Walker is out for the Seahawks, creating uncertainty regarding the team's offensive production compared to their Super Bowl performance.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
PositiveProjection42:02
Matt Rogers expects Kirk Cousins to perform better than last year due to a significantly improved offensive line, including the addition of center Linderbaum and a healthy Colton Miller.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection57:08
Matt Rogers expresses skepticism about Kyler Murray in a new offense, citing his inaccuracy as a deep-ball thrower and the expectation that defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will limit his explosive plays.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveRole49:01
Matt Rogers believes Lamar Jackson will thrive in the new offensive scheme, noting that Jackson has historically performed at an elite level when playing under center.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveUsage41:50
Matt Rogers notes that the Raiders plan to utilize Malik Willis in the run game, which provides a higher fantasy floor for his production.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeInjury20:41
Mike Evans is currently dealing with an injury, adding to the 49ers' wide receiver concerns.
Insight pageNegativeInjury33:54
Matt Rogers reports that Mike Evans is currently dealing with an injury issue.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveInjury20:50
Puka Nacua is expected to play for the Rams despite previous injury concerns.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury20:39
The 49ers' wide receiver depth is impacted by the injury to rookie Ricky Pearsall.
Insight pageNegativeInjury33:54
Matt Rogers identifies Ricky Pearsall as one of the wide receivers the team has already lost to injury.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
PositiveDepth Chart8:53
The Patriots added Romeo Doubs to their wide receiver room as part of an effort to improve their offensive personnel.
Insight pageSam Darnold
NegativeBust14:11
Despite receiving credit for his play, Doug Kazarian notes that Sam Darnold had several near-interceptions and shaky moments in the Super Bowl that suggest he could regress.
Insight pageNegativeProjection61:58
The hosts discuss Sam Darnold's role in Kevin O'Connell's system, noting that while the system is conducive to his success, there are questions about whether he can sustain high-level play.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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2:58I'm just about that action, boss. Ready, ready, ready.
3:01All right, here we go. From the tent, throwing in zone.
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3:19And we are under. What's up, the Genre Nation?
3:22Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.
3:25This is the Week 1 NFL betting preview. I'm Stucky and joining me today is my new co-host, Doug Kazarian, who will
3:31be joining me this season to break down the entire NFL.
3:35We will cover every single game from Week 1 through the Super Bowl.
3:39Doug comes in in replace of my fellow co-host, Chris Raybon.
3:42Miss you, Chris. Thanks for all of your work over the years.
3:46Doug, how's it going? Happy to have you and excited to get this season started.
3:51Yeah, likewise. Stuck, I've been a fan of yours for a long time.
3:55Then we actually met in person, but this is awesome.
3:58I'm very fired up. I'm actually traveling in LA for family.
4:02So my niece's board game is behind me, but don't pay attention to that.
4:06But no, this is great, dude. I'm fired up and I respect you over all these years.
4:11I'm really thrilled to be just chopping it up and picking your brain and kind of sharing my thoughts and hopefully flushing
4:18things out every single game like you mentioned. And really fired up for the season.
4:23So standing ovation for everyone. We all made it.
4:26Yep. And in true NFL fashion, we have to record this early this week because they're starting the season on a Wednesday.
4:33We'll get to that game in just a second.
4:35And then we have a game in Thursday in Australia, which is like in the morning in Australia.
4:41And then we have football on Sunday and Monday.
4:44We will get to every single game. Sort of a new format this year.
4:48Instead of the Sunday six pack, we're actually doing a contest.
4:52So we'll get you'll still get my three favorite picks.
4:55Doug will contribute to and we'll put together five picks for the contest.
4:59And we're not going to use like stale contest lines.
5:02So when we record this, we'll use whatever lines are widely available to come up with our five favorite sides.
5:08We'll still put together our Moneyline Underdog Parlay. I'll talk teasers and we will break down every single game.
5:14We'll also have a survivor section. Doug's going to take one type of survivor.
5:19I'm going to take another. Hopefully we can have some success there.
5:22And I didn't even introduce the man that you cannot see.
5:26Stats Hound, Evan Abrams, will be joining us each episode to provide some valuable insight, trends, little nuggets here and there for each game.
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6:19Football season is on the horizon, so get in while things are hot.
6:24DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, let's start with the first game, which will kick off Wednesday night, 820 Eastern between the Patriots and the Seahawks.
6:32Seahawks are anywhere from three to three and a half point favorites, total sitting at 44 and a half at DraftKings.
6:39This is a Super Bowl rematch. First time since 2016 that we get that to kick off the season.
6:44Evan, do you have any quick nuggets that you want to add for, you know, I know that the Super Bowl loser
6:51has been horrendous against the spread in their first game.
6:55And that old Super Bowl hangover trend. But what about the any rematches, the Super Bowl team at home?
7:00Do you have anything that you want to add here?
7:04Yeah, I'm first of all, what's up, Doug? What's up, Stuck?
7:07I think that's the only trend that like feels like it fits.
7:11I mean, if you think about it, Kubiak, Walker, like there's so many people.
7:15We just saw that. I know Henderson is going to be in the game and there's so many different pieces.
7:21I don't feel like a ton fits. So I will just give you that one, which is Super Bowl losers since 2006
7:28and 20 against the spread, 11 and 15 straight up.
7:31I mean, in this situation, they are road and road neutral in that spot, three and 13 against the spread as well.
7:38So not very good, but a very different game, very different teams.
7:42So I personally, I played, Doug, we might disagree on this.
7:46I don't know. I played the Patriots plus three and a half after some of the recent Seattle injury news.
7:52Now you might say like, look, Seattle was what a five point favorite in the Super Bowl in a neutral field.
7:58They covered, they dominated. Now they're only laying three, three and a half at home.
8:03But the way that I look at this, like what happened in the Super Bowl?
8:08First of all, New England couldn't block Seattle. They just, they couldn't block them.
8:12The front for Seattle was dominant. The time, the blitzes from McDonald were amazing.
8:17The cover six usage was just exquisite and everything that he did worked.
8:21EPA per drop back, which is the lowest of the season.
8:24Pressure rate north of 50%. They had about a third and seven on average.
8:29So good luck against McDonald if that's the case.
8:31So what can the Patriots, why would the Patriots potentially have more success this year?
8:36Well, you have your entire offensive staff back. And so you have all off season to prep for some of the things that McDonald's going to throw you.
8:45And you know, McDonald's going to have new wrinkles, but you upgraded your wide receiver room.
8:50You bring in A.J. Brown, you bring in Romeo Dubs.
8:53You assume that the offensive line should be a little bit better, right?
8:57Will Campbell, another year under his belt, should be healthier.
9:00You're moving Wilson into center, his more natural position, Vera Tucker, added a guard.
9:05So you would think that the offensive line should be a bit better.
9:09I think they're also going to use a bit more pace and tempo to kind of just make sure that Seattle doesn't
9:16get set and know, you know, and get McDonald to kind of set things up.
9:20And I think that they can try to catch them off guard a bit.
9:25I also think like their hot reads on the blitzes, like there's a lot of things that they didn't do.
9:31Now, really, can they just, they need to block better right off the bat.
9:35But I think that this Patriots offense is significantly better on paper.
9:39And I think that the Seattle defense is not as strong.
9:42Now, it's still McDonald, the best defense of mine in the NFL, in my opinion.
9:47But their second, their secret sauce last year was being able to stay and dine.
9:52Like you would have, you know, Eamon Worry would basically be like a linebacker.
9:56And you'd have Witherspoon in the slot all the time.
9:59Well, they lost Kobe Bryant. They lost Tariq Woolan.
10:02And now you have Eamon Worry who might not play.
10:05Ty Akata is out. Bud Clark, who they drafted at safety, was going to be like a chess piece.
10:11He's hurt. So this secondary is nowhere close to as versatile as it was all of last year.
10:17And I don't think that McDonald can pull some of the same strings that he did without all of these bodies in the secondary.
10:24So I think the Patriots will have much more success on the offensive side of the ball.
10:30And then with the Seahawks, when they have the ball, they're pretty much running it back.
10:35But there's no Kenneth Walker. So we'll see if there's a drop-off there.
10:39He obviously was huge in last year's Super Bowl.
10:42And there's a new offensive coordinator. So is there going to be a drop-off from Kubiak exiting?
10:47We don't know. So there is some uncertainty there.
10:50What did the Seahawks do so well? They got into heavy personnel a ton.
10:54And that forced the Patriots' hand where they had to go base.
10:58And what I mean by that is they had to take Marcus Jones out.
11:02Because Marcus Jones isn't like your run-stopping nickel. And that's when the Seahawks had most of their success running outside, throwing off of play action.
11:10Other than on standard dropbacks, Christian Gonzalez did a good job on JSN.
11:14They did a really good job. But it was really that heavy personnel.
11:18So what can New England do? Are they going to play more three-safety looks?
11:23They lost Hawkins. I think they're going to go heavier along the defensive line to try and stop that defense.
11:29Because that was definitely something that Seattle took advantage of and something certainly worth noting.
11:34But I just think given the upgrades on the New England offense, the adjustments that I think they'll make, the injuries in
11:41the Seattle secondary, and then on the other side of the ball, I still think that this New England defense matches up pretty well against Seattle.
11:49I took the three-and-a-half points. Doug, I'm curious to get your thoughts.
11:52And if you're looking at Seattle now that it's potentially down to a three.
11:57Yeah, this one is tough. And I think that's just the NFL in general.
12:01I'm going to almost talk out of both sides of my mouth because you can make a case for either.
12:08And I know a lot of sharps like yourself who like the dog here.
12:12And for me, an early look was dog or pass because you want to play a little contrarian just given how one-sided that Super Bowl matchup was.
12:20And all the moving parts from him to worry out or expected to be out.
12:25And then the other stuff like A.J. Brown. And there's no way Drake May can play that poorly again.
12:31And he was nicked up a little bit. So was Will Campbell.
12:35They were a little injured. They were fighting injuries.
12:38And I was really disappointed with McDaniels' inability to make adjustments for being such an offensive wizard.
12:43You have to think they're going to be ready in that regard.
12:47However, like Evan was saying, some of those stats with the Super Bowl hangover and everything, they are tangible, right?
12:53Six and 20. Just in general, Super Bowl losers, six and 20 against the spread in week one, three and 13 ATS on the road.
13:01But it all depends how much you put in that.
13:04Because I know a really sharp modeler who made it six, but he put a heavy emphasis on that whole defending champ,
13:11Super Bowl loser thing in the opener on that.
13:14And by the way, last year, so much talk this year of the Niners and Rams going to Australia.
13:20But the East Coast teams playing West Coast teams in prime time, including the Super Bowl, 0-9 ATS and straight up last year.
13:27Now, relatively small sample size, all that. But something to be said about that.
13:31It's worth mentioning. And I love McDonald. I forget which defender explained it, but basically they articulated.
13:37He has such a good way about him of articulating what the assignment is on any particular play call on defense and making it simple.
13:44Just simplifying it for the defender and what they need to do on that play.
13:49So I think that's the hardest thing about coaching in any sport is to get everyone to do what you want them to do.
13:57And so if they can all sort of stay connected on a string, if you will, they play great team defense in that regard.
14:04But I expect Drake May to be better. And by the way, Sam Darnold deserves all the credit and the flowers.
14:11But he had that one pass. What is he on his own goal line where he threw and it was tipped and nearly picked?
14:18There were a lot of plays where old Sam Darnold almost appeared.
14:22So if you believe in the trend, which I do, I think the crowd and everything, I think they could cover this.
14:29And I think if I had in a pick them league, I'm going to lay it.
14:34But I certainly can't fault anyone for taking the points.
14:37Yeah. I also, in regards to the total, I might get at 44, I might get involved in the over.
14:43Because I do think the Patriots, like the Patriots offense is, this total is lower than it was in the Super Bowl.
14:50And the Seahawks defense is worse off due to injuries and secondary losses.
14:54The Patriots offense is better off. Now, you could say maybe the Seahawks, you know, loss of Walker and the loss of their offense coordinator.
15:02But like the Patriots pass rush isn't as good.
15:05They lost the safety. And the Seahawks pretty much are running it back on offense.
15:10And I do think the Patriots are going to use more pace, which I think will favor this over.
15:16And they're just trying to catch Seattle off guard.
15:18So, yeah, I think at under 45, I know it's scary after what we saw last year and with McDonald.
15:25Because here's the thing with McDonald, that we, Drake may struggle against cover six during the regular season, but he rarely saw it.
15:32But McDonald caught on and then used it a bunch in the Super Bowl and he struggled again.
15:37So the Patriots could work on that in the offseason.
15:41Like, but you know that McDonald's going to have different wrinkles.
15:44He's not going to come with the expected game plan.
15:47So I'm excited to see that. But I just don't think they have the same versatility in the secondary, which allowed him to do so many things.
15:56And I think that will hurt them here. Are you comfortable with Will Campbell?
16:00I mean, he had the short arms when he came out in the draft.
16:04This is not like a new problem in the Super Bowl.
16:08Yeah, no, it's definitely a concern. Like, I don't think that he's, I think he'll be better than he was last year just due to health.
16:16And he has, you know, he added some weight and just improving his base.
16:20And schematically, McDaniels has to like be ready for it.
16:24I mean, it'd be completely like negligence if he didn't.
16:27Yeah. And I mean, they got it. They signed the Bills fullback.
16:30So you use a full, some fullback go heavier.
16:33That could certainly be in the cards. But yeah, I think that this total is probably a little bit too low.
16:40Evan, before we get to the Thursday night game, do you have any?
16:44Week one unders in the past few years have just crushed.
16:47And part of that might have to do with, you know, these quarterbacks don't play in the preseason anymore.
16:53So there's a little bit of rust and the offenses just aren't as crisp.
16:58Do you have numbers on the week one unders?
17:00Crushed. Crushed. Crushed. Last four years, 42 and 22.
17:0366%. Two and a half points per game on the margin there.
17:07The crazy thing is, if you just look at week one over the last four years, it is the best week to
17:14the under in that span of any week. So both factors.
17:17But interesting enough, yeah. All right, let's move on to Thursday night football.
17:21The 49ers will take on the Rams. The Rams are three and a half point favorites.
17:26Total 48 and a half. This game will take place in Australia.
17:30There's a lot of interesting storylines, but we could start with the travel.
17:34I mean, this is, you have two teams that are doing completely, that have completely different approaches here.
17:40The 49ers went a week ahead of time. Again, the Rams are going 24 hours in advance.
17:45From everything that I've looked at, and there's been a lot of studies done, like those are the two right, like correct approaches.
17:53Now, this is a different animal going to Australia, but you either want to go and acclimate yourself or like go right before.
18:00And the Rams did that successfully when they went to London and played Jacksonville, who was already there.
18:05They just, they flew in late, rolled them. But there's examples where that didn't work.
18:10The Bills tried it against Jacksonville and got rolled.
18:13So what is the impact there? I don't know.
18:16It's hard to quantify. The sample size isn't enormous, but they're taking two completely different approaches, which I found interesting.
18:22You also have, you know, McVay and Shanahan. Shanahan owned him early.
18:26McVay has gotten the better of him of late overall.
18:29Raheem Morris comes in as the defensive coordinator. A lot of familiarity.
18:33He was on the Shanahan staff in 2012, on Washington staff with McVay and Shanahan and all those guys.
18:39There's a lot of familiarity there. So before I share my thoughts on this game, curious, Doug, number one, do you have
18:45any thoughts on the travel and what you like in this game?
18:49Well, I think, I mean, I've read too much and talked to too many experts about like this whole thing and circadian rhythm and all this nonsense.
18:58I mean, it's just going to, we're going to have to see how it plays out.
19:03But McVay is three, you know, straight up and against the spread in international games for what that's worth.
19:09Because like you said, Australia is a different animal.
19:11I know a lot of sharps on the plus four.
19:15We see the market sort of leaking towards three.
19:17I mean, look, there's no Aaron Donald. So we got that official word.
19:21And Miles Garrett is great. Like that's inarguable. They lose verse that obviously there's a delta there, but it's worth mentioning.
19:28And it's just how much can the Rams really be that dominant offense?
19:32I just, everything went so according to plan. I mean, they, so 54% of their drives reached the red zone or produced a touchdown last year.
19:40That was the highest rate since the 07 Patriots.
19:43That ridiculous team that was, you know, they were 56.3.
19:46So just, I just feel like every break went their way.
19:50And will there, will that offense be that sort of proficient and just clicking on all cylinders?
19:55I just, if you believe in, if you believe in regression, I just, you have to kind of take the points here.
20:02But the Rams could dominate because on paper, they are that special.
20:06To me, I ended up playing the Rams at three and a half.
20:10I just think that this 49ers, number one, the 49ers injuries, like there is a lot of uncertainty with the travel aspect.
20:17But the 49ers, yeah, Kittle, is he playing? Yeah, like I think he'll play, but I don't think he'll be as explosive.
20:24He might be on a snap count. The same with Bosa.
20:27Their defensive line is super thin. They have a lot of injuries there.
20:31So they still have questions on the interior, the offensive line.
20:34You know, they have wide receiver injuries all over.
20:37You know, they already lost Christian Kirk, Ricky Pearsall.
20:40You know, Mike Evans is dealing with a thing.
20:43So you're going to be counting on like Debo and a rookie and Stribbling.
20:47And I mean, this Rams roster on paper and look, Nakua is going to go.
20:52Looks like Jackson's going to go. They addressed all of their needs, all of their weaknesses from last year in the secondary.
20:59You bring in McDuffie. You bring in Watson. And then you add the defensive player of the year in Garrett.
21:05And I mean, I think that they can just dominate the line of scrimmage.
21:10And look, Raheem Morris and his defense, he needs like a really good nickel.
21:14Jury's still out on Upton's style. He needs a very good because it's going to be a different defense.
21:20It's going to be more five-man fronts. There's the jury.
21:23They need like a hybrid linebacker to really shine in that scheme.
21:27And I don't necessarily know if they have that.
21:30And, you know, the secondary is okay, but not great.
21:33So I think that this, you know, I was fair around here, like 3.6, 3.7 before all of the injury concerns for the 49ers.
21:40So I took the Rams. And I trust, I don't know, but I, so I don't know which, which, this isn't my area of expertise.
21:48And I don't think anyone really knows, but I trust McVay when it comes to travel.
21:53I mean, he is consistently crushed it, whether it's, you know, back-to-back games on the East Coast, short weeks, going international games.
22:00Like, he just seems to have a beat on how to get his teams to travel in tough spots.
22:06Evan, do you have anything in regards to McVay and travel?
22:09Yeah, I got a filter of my own that does three-plus time zones.
22:14I have him at 22 and 13 straight up, 21, 12, and 2 against the spread, which pretty impressive in itself.
22:20For sure. Should be a good one. And, like, we'll see.
22:24Like, there's a chance that one of these teams is just off early, right?
22:28Like, just the rhythm of their offense is off.
22:31And it's week one, right? Like, that could happen anyway.
22:34Three-and-a-half point favorites cover historically more than three. So, this goes for the first game as well.
22:39Both of those three-and-a-half. Like, you know, I feel like I wanted to study on would you, you know, the two-and-a-half is a weak favorite, right?
22:47Like, that's not three. And three-and-a-half, you're tempted to take the dog because you're getting the extra hook because 15% of games typically land three in the NFL.
22:56But three-and-a-half usually covers much more than three in the favorite role.
23:00Yeah, so I'm on the Rams there. A little concerned about the travel just with the uncertainty.
23:05But I think with the 49ers injuries and this Rams defense, I think at the line of scrimmage, I just have so
23:12much more faith in the Rams in this particular matchup when you take into account the 49ers injuries.
23:18All right, let's move on to a couple marquee games.
23:21It's another fabulous weekend. And let's check out the marquee matchups we'll all end up betting for week one.
23:27Let's start with Bills-Texans. One Eastern on Sunday. This one should be a doozy.
23:31Bills, one-and-a-half point favorites. Total, 44-and-a-half. Josh Allen has not had much success against the Texans.
23:36He's 1-4. 0-4 in Houston. Last year there were a lot of injuries that were worth noting, but Houston got the better of them there as well.
23:45All five games have been lower scoring. They're 42, 43, 40, 41, and 33 points.
23:49I do think this is a super interesting game.
23:52I could go a million different ways with it.
23:55I do think that the Bills are potentially slightly worse off on the offensive line.
24:00They replace Edwards with Anderson. They also lose their offensive line coach who called their runs.
24:05So we'll see if there's a drop-off there. They do add DJ more.
24:09So the hope is that you have more explosiveness.
24:12He can open up the field for Josh Allen.
24:14You have a healthy Dalton Kincaid. You still have James Cook, and you have Superman Josh Allen.
24:20So we'll see if DJ Moore can open up that offense.
24:23Because in the past, the reason that Buffalo has struggled with the Houston defense, I mean, everyone does.
24:29There's no real weakness on this Houston defense. They don't do anything gimmicky.
24:33They just kind of line up, and they have a nickel, which is the superpower of NFL teams in 2026.
24:39You have a nickel who can stay on the field at all times, defend the run, defend the pass, and Petrie.
24:46And you have two of the best edge rushers in the NFL, two of the best corners in the NFL.
24:52You add Reed Blankenship at safety. I think just from a basic being in the right place at the right time, that
24:59was an issue with that position last year. You have Jalen Bullitt.
25:03I mean, this defense is absolutely loaded. I think the Bills will probably want to attack their linebackers in coverage.
25:09But what the Texans actually did last year against the Bills, and D'Amico has done this against mobile quarterbacks, is they actually
25:16played a lot more cover one, and they spied Josh Allen with Shair.
25:20And the Bills had a 5% success rate against the Texans cover one looks.
25:24Pretty insane. So we'll see if the Bills have adjustments or what they're going to do.
25:29But I do think their offensive line, slight step back, we'll see how much of an upgrade DJ Moore can be to that offense.
25:37Defensively for the Bills. So it's good on good when the Bills have the ball.
25:42On the other side, it's questions versus questions. The Texans' offense, is their offensive line going to finally be able to have a productive year?
25:49I think they have better depth this year. You draft Keelan Rutledge.
25:53We'll see how it works because they bring in David Montgomery.
25:57They need a run game. They need a complimentary run game.
26:00They haven't been able to get it. Can they just move the ball consistently on the ground?
26:05And if they can't this week, red flags. Because the Bills' run defense was horrific last year, and I'm not sure it got me better.
26:13There are questions all over this Bills' defense. So Jim Leonard is going to take over the defense.
26:19It's going to be a massive schematic shift. It's going to go from sort of more zone-heavy, bend-don't-break McDermott principles to Leonard, who comes from the Broncos.
26:27It comes from Vance Joseph. It's going to be more aggressive.
26:31You're going to see maybe more single high. So can he make up for the lack of talent on that side of the ball?
26:38And can the Bills, they drafted all these guys.
26:41They're going to be changing to a three-man base front.
26:44They drafted all these guys to play more zone on the outside.
26:48They drafted their defensive line types aren't really built for this type of defense.
26:52So how does that work? And are there growing pains?
26:55But there is some level of uncertainty. What is Leonard's defense going to look like?
27:00The Texans don't really know that. But if Houston can run the ball consistently, it's going to make everything so much easier
27:07for Stroud, who has shined against single high defenses.
27:10That's when he's at his best. And I think that's what Leonard is going to run a ton of.
27:16We'll see. He could come out and just play too high and say, yeah, Stroud, you beat us.
27:21We don't trust your run game. But I do think Houston can finally have success running the ball in this particular matchup.
27:28But curious to get your quick thoughts on this game, though.
27:32Yeah, I mean, I think the question starts with CJ Stroud, just how bad he looked in that playoff game.
27:38And obviously, he has to sit with that. He's a competitive dude.
27:42You don't just come out and look the same.
27:45I expect him to be a lot better. I found some of these trends interesting.
27:49And I think it's more important because we talk about this with pitchers and handicapping baseball.
27:54A guy splits on home, road, day, night. I mean, so many other variables are changing in those games, whether who they're playing, right?
28:02Which batters and whatever. In this case, Stroud's 0-6 ATS, first two games of the regular season.
28:07They have struggled on offense. Also, Houston has such better protection at home over the years.
28:12Better pressure rate allowed, quick hit rate allowed, EPA per pressure.
28:16And obviously, that's the case with every team. Typically plays better at home or blocks better at home.
28:21But it's really pronounced with the Texans. But to your point about the single safety, high safety, and I think that's more applicable.
28:29I think some of this stuff is just sort of convenient like the 0-6 ATS the first two weeks of the season so far in his NFL career.
28:37I'm really torn. I think Houston's probably the right side.
28:40I have a feeling a lot of sharps are going to be on the Texans.
28:45Although, sharp group bet over 44.5 for what it's worth.
28:48That surprised me because a lot of points is not something that came to mind when I saw this matchup.
28:55It's going to be interesting to see how Josh Allen and the Bills look after Sean McDermott's firing.
29:00I'm not a huge believer in Buffalo. I think Allen's fantastic.
29:04And the defense can be good. The running game can be good.
29:07But they never seem to quite get it done.
29:10And they're very good at playing with the lead.
29:13But I don't know if they're going to have the lead.
29:16Although, Houston's a slow starter. So, I'm completely waffling on this game because it's one of those I just want to sit back and watch.
29:24Yeah, I was surprised by the over hit too.
29:27Like I said, the last five matchups between these two teams have been just slugfest.
29:32And the Bills want to come out. So, are the Bills healthy Kincaid?
29:36You signed DJ Moore. Does that signal that they want to come out and throw more?
29:41So, that might be the case. They might have a high position.
29:45Because this is a team that wants to run the ball and they do it really well.
29:50And that sets everything off. But because of that, the Bills weren't a great first half team last year.
29:56Part of that was their defense. But sometimes they would fall behind.
30:00I think they had a negative point differential in the first half last year.
30:04They're the best second half team. You're right. Yeah, they're the best second half.
30:0829-9 ATS second half last year. Yeah, so I played the Texans first half.
30:13That was smart. And because here's the other thing.
30:16And I believe, Evan, you would have this. Isn't Josh Allen the only quarterback who hasn't lost with a 7-point lead?
30:22Yes. So, Allen with... 26-0. 26-0. 26-0. And the other things are...
30:26Last two years. If the Bills are behind, right?
30:29You just, okay, unleash Superman Allen. He can come back, right?
30:32Against any defense. And the Texans, if they're forced to throw the ball against the Leonard pressures, like, you don't have a
30:39lot of faith, as much faith in that offense playing from behind.
30:43And the Texans have not shown a great ability to adjust offensively over the course of the game.
30:49So, they're going to have their script. And then, you know, once the defenses adjust in the second half, they haven't been
30:55great in adjusting under their past couple of coordinators.
30:58So, we'll see if that gets better. But I do think the Texans can come out, run the ball.
31:04I do think the Bills are going to come out, try to run it.
31:09It's very hard to do against Houston. And this defense just has no weaknesses.
31:13And then, eventually, Allen might turn into Superman. I do like the Texans' full game as well.
31:18Like the first half a little bit better. But super interesting to see.
31:22What does Leonard do schematically? It didn't show anything in the preseason, obviously.
31:27Like, how much of the McDermott system mixed with what he wants to do, mixed with, like, what Stroud's good at?
31:33Like, that's a huge uncertainty. And how much more do the Bills want to throw?
31:38And how aggressive are they early on? So, really a fascinating schematic matchup in Houston.
31:42But I make them a small favorite. So, I played them first half.
31:47I'll have some on them for the full game as well.
31:50Are you getting a point? Are you getting a half point there on the first half?
31:55Or is it just money going? Yeah, half point, minus 115, minus 120.
31:59I mean, I think if you can get plus a half in the first half.
32:04I mean, you know, how often is this game going to be tied, right?
32:08I mean, I think that's such an edge. Yeah.
32:11And Stroud has been, I think, pretty good first half historically.
32:14Evan, do you have anything else on this game to add?
32:18The Stroud stuff. I mean, that would be the angle of the play.
32:22Stroud 37-13-2 straight up. 36-16. ATS first half. 36-13 against the first half?
32:26Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's a monster first half with D'Amico.
32:29And then Bill's on the other side second half.
32:32So, like, I think a fun thing could be first half, second half.
32:36He just played a pregame. Yeah. I'll probably have some Bills, some Texans first half.
32:41Texans game. Hope the Texans are up. Have some Bills second half.
32:45But I can't wait to watch that game. It should be a good one.
32:49How are you on D'Amico Ryan? Just in general.
32:52He played Tampa one year on Monday Night Football.
32:55I think it was last year, if not, it was the year before.
32:59And Tampa had no offensive line. And they were still playing like 10 yards back on cushion on the receivers.
33:05And Baker was just letting it flip. It's like there were no adjustments.
33:09I've just been so disappointed at times on his inability to adjust to certain game plans.
33:14That gives me a little concern. Yeah. I mean, I don't think I don't I'm not a fan of Ryan's from a game management perspective.
33:22Yes. Like he is a like elite defensive coordinator that is a head coach.
33:27And then that's you see some of the deficiencies in that department.
33:30Jury's still out on the OC. So, yeah, I think that they're I'm not the biggest like Ryan's.
33:36As a head coach fan. But fascinating to watch this one.
33:39This this is a game where both quarterbacks. Right.
33:42How want to come out and just wash away how last year ended.
33:46Right. With Stroud's disaster in the playoffs. Allen had his worst playoff game in Denver.
33:51Yeah. He had a fumble at the end of the first half.
33:55The way that that ended. These are two quarterbacks that really want to wash away last year and start off this season with a win.
34:03In a game that could have major playoff implications in the AFC.
34:06Can't wait for that one. All right. Let's let's hit a marquee game at the four o'clock window.
34:12Four Eastern window. Packers Vikings Vikings. One and a half point favor.
34:16Total forty six and a half. Half. I played some under here.
34:19Now, this is the first bet that I made in the offseason.
34:23This is my I could be completely off. But this is just my my hypothesis.
34:28You have Kyler Murray in, you know, a new offense.
34:31There might be some growing pains early. But more importantly, and I have questions about this Green Bay secondary, like matching up
34:38against these wide receivers could be problematic. Like is you're going to what are you going to get?
34:44Is Brandon Cissé the rookie? Maybe they want him to eventually be CB one.
34:48You know, maybe he's just not ready. Maybe that's there's a there's risk there with the Green Bay secondary.
34:54But Kyler Murray. He's one of the least accurate deep ball throwers in the NFL, like 36 to 36 over the last
35:01three years, no matter what stats you look at.
35:04So I don't know if the explosive plays, especially right off the bat, a new offense are going to be there.
35:10And he's going up against Jonathan Gannon, who was with him last year, who knows him extremely well, who also wants to
35:17limit explosive plays, has very good safeties. So I think that he he knows that Murray with his legs is dangerous.
35:24He's going to have that bottled up. I just think that Green Bay all summer to prepare for this quarterback.
35:30He is uber familiar with. And I think Gannon is actually a really good defensive coordinator.
35:35Just didn't have the personnel and then had so many injuries in Arizona.
35:39But he does some really interesting stuff on the back end from a coverage perspective.
35:44So the familiarity with Kyler Murray in a new offense first game.
35:48And on the other side, look, Green Bay definitely has explosive weapons on the outside, but there's no Josh Jacobs.
35:54And you're going to go up against Flores defense all summer to prepare with one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL.
36:01This Packers offensive line has issues everywhere except right tackle.
36:04You cannot feel confident about any other position right now.
36:07And you're going up against Flores and heavy blitz.
36:10And every year, Flores will change his... He's a camo man.
36:14He changes his spots. It'll be... He'll have this brand new wrinkle.
36:17Like, two years ago, he dropped eight a lot.
36:20Last year, didn't do it at all. So Green Bay is going to have no idea.
36:25They know that they're going to get a ton of blitzes.
36:29Love's numbers fall off a cliff when he's under pressure.
36:32So you know that the blitzes are going to come around.
36:35But from a coverage perspective, what are you getting?
36:38I like that they signed Harrison Smith. Get the communicator on the back end.
36:42Veteran. They bring in Van Noy, who's familiar with Flores defense as well.
36:46They needed additional depth help on the edge. So I think Flores, all summer to prepare against this bad offensive line.
36:53No Josh Jacobs. Gannon's familiarity with Kyler Murray. First game in a new offense.
36:57The wide receivers scare me and the potential for explosive plays in a fast track.
37:02Maybe this turns into a shootout. But again, another week one.
37:06Divisional game under. I'd lean Minnesota. But I think the price is about fair.
37:10So I don't think I'll have anything on the side.
37:13Doug, you got anything here? Yeah, sometimes there's narratives that just seem too good or too easy.
37:18Like, oh, look what Kevin O'Connell did with Sam Darnold.
37:22It's like, well, also Darnold was pretty good sort of ball of clay, right?
37:26He was top five pick. Yes, he had a hitch in his throws at USC and definitely led to some turnovers.
37:32But the system was conducive to his shining. I don't think Murray's really a good quarterback at all.
37:38I think the dual threat does present some challenges to opposing defenses.
37:42But if anybody who's bet those Cardinals games, he was really like a backdoor cover guy.
37:47Like, he would find a lot of room to run when the defenses were in prevent and just sagging back.
37:53He would just run to tuck it and run.
37:56Or he was just, the reading the defense was very simplified.
37:59It wasn't a complex defense because with the juncture of the game and score remaining, things like that.
38:05So it was simplified, shotgun, trying to move the ball down the field.
38:09And the defense is just trying to keep the clock running.
38:13So in terms of like having an elaborate offense with Kyler Murray, I just don't see it working.
38:18I forget what podcast I heard this summer. But someone said, like, if Kevin O'Connell didn't have like a great jawline, would
38:25everyone believe he's this offensive guru and going to do wonders with Kyler Murray?
38:30I just laughed. I mean, I think everyone's sort of assuming a little too much.
38:34Just glass half full with this situation. Yes, he has great weapons.
38:38And obviously that we've had a change in favorites in the game, partly because of Jacobs.
38:43But I think the under is a good guy.
38:46I like what you're saying there. I think there's definitely going to be some challenges for this Minnesota offense.
38:52I don't think it's going to be seamless. And it's just going to be Sam Darnold 2.0, like when they, you know,
38:59what started out so strong when he was there last.
39:02Yeah, I mean, Gannon's going to have to do some interesting things because, I mean, there are questions in the secondary.
39:08There's no Micah Parsons. Their defense fell off a cliff without Micah Parsons.
39:12The defensive front seven, like, has questions. I think Minnesota might go a little bit more run heavy too early.
39:19So, which would be conducive to the under. How have the Packers been so good about hiding that O-line?
39:25Because the offense has clicked a lot. But you're right.
39:28The O-line is one of the worst in football.
39:31Yeah, I mean, but they lost Jenkins. They lost a couple of the guys.
39:35And then, look, you look at this offensive line.
39:38I mean, it's arguably a bottom five unit. I mean, you're going to have Jordan Morgan.
39:43Now you're starting tackle. Aaron Banks has not worked out of guard.
39:47Sean Ryan, one of the worst centers. And now you're starting Jacob Monk at guard.
39:51You know, kind of a semi. I mean, he's only 25.
39:55But the kid out of Duke that I never thought would be starting in the NFL.
40:00There are, it could be really bad. And going up against this complex defense, Flores' defense in the first week, not knowing what to expect.
40:08That is scary. Now, the Minnesota's defensive line definitely has questions.
40:11They lost Grenard. We'll see if, like, Dallas Turner, if he can take that next step.
40:16Reports were pretty good in camp, but that's camp.
40:19So there are some questions on this Minnesota defense.
40:22Like, it's not the most talented defense in the world.
40:25Flores makes up a lot of that with scheme.
40:28And same way that LaFleur makes up with, you know, he just, his offense has such a high floor.
40:34But I just think Flores' week one against this offensive line.
40:37No Jacobs. Gannon, familiarity with Murray, first game. And by the way, and Evan's got back to you, division unders in week
40:44one, 18 and seven to the under the last four years.
40:47Yeah. Makes sense. So, yeah, I like the under there.
40:50Grossest game of the week. We'll always have a grossest game of the week.
40:55Mmm, what's that smell? It stinks. What do you mean?
40:58It's trash. The sweet, sweet trash. The trash is a gold mine.
41:02Gold mine. Gold mine. The winner is Raiders Dolphins.
41:05Raiders are three and a half point favorite. Total 41.
41:08I, like, I make this three and a half.
41:11My only look in this game, I don't know if I'll get there.
41:15But, to me, this is a sneaky, we've been talking a lot about unders.
41:19This is a sneaky over. I know that the Dolphins don't have receivers.
41:23But, you know, this is like an offense. The Raiders don't know really what this offense is going to look like.
41:30Willis, they're going to use Willis in the run game, which raises the floor a bit.
41:35And you look at both of these defenses. They're just void of talent.
41:39I'm a huge fan of Patrick Grant, the defense coordinator who left the Raiders.
41:43He, I think he just elevated their entire performance with, despite a lack of talent across the board outside of Crosby.
41:50I think they're going to miss him. So, yeah, and then, like, just fast track, two really bad defenses.
41:56You don't really know what to expect from the Dolphins offense.
41:59The Raiders defense has major questions in the secondary.
42:02And then, like, you have Kirk Cousins. It's going to look better than last year because it can't look any worse.
42:09And the offensive line is better. You sign Linderbaum at center.
42:12Colton Miller, one of the better left tackles in the NFL, is healthy.
42:16I mean, you basically have two Pro Bowl caliber offensive linemen that weren't there last year.
42:21They weren't playing Powers Johnson. I don't know why a guard.
42:24He's going to be playing guard. So, still have questions at right tackle.
42:29Left guard isn't great. But their offensive line is going to be significantly better.
42:33And they're going up against this Miami defense that, especially on the back end, it is extremely raw and just lacks talent.
42:40So, this is my nomination for the, like, who wants the better Raiders Dolphins over.
42:45But this is the game that I think could get a little squirrelier than many think.
42:50Like, fast track indoors, total 41 with these defenses.
42:52Especially at 40 and a half. There's 40 and a halves out there.
42:56I don't know. We'll talk about Geno later, but no quarterback could have played well last year with that O-line.
43:03It was truly, truly pathetic. And yes, you don't have game breakers at wide receiver, but you do have Brock Bowers, who is unguardable.
43:10And he's really that good. But really, like, unless you get the top, top guys like Chase.
43:16Yeah, you mentioned that. Bowers was hurt last year, too.
43:19He was never healthy. That's like you were losing your best player for the whole season.
43:24Unless you have Jamar Chase or Nakua, like, some of these wide receivers, if they're open, like, they're going to get open.
43:31Because it's the NFL, right? Like, there's just elite, fast guys who are good.
43:35And these types of play callers are going to get them open.
43:39So, I mean, Kubiak's going to get these guys open.
43:42And the O-line's going to be good. Cousins can put it anywhere.
43:46His body's not breaking down. It's week one. It's not week seven.
43:49And I think they're going to be able to put up plenty of points.
43:54And I think the Dolphins, I think Malik Willis, obviously the dual threat, poses a lot of problems.
43:59I'm not confident enough to take the Raiders in survivor pools.
44:03As tempting as it is to get cute if you're in a big pool and need to go the whole season.
44:09But I know a sharp group laid three and a half, which was weird because the market was trending the other direction.
44:16But, you know, first-year head coaches as favorites historically do terribly.
44:20So that's a little alarming if you're going to lay the points.
44:24I – every year there's teams that we think will be just the worst, right?
44:28The worst team. Like last year was supposed to be the Saints.
44:32And maybe they were going there until they changed quarterbacks.
44:35But typically the teams, like the Patriots a couple years ago, but they – yeah, with Mayo they had like four or five wins.
44:43But they were like in a lot of games.
44:45I don't know. I'm always careful with just how bad Miami is going to be this year.
44:51Everyone says they're going to tank and they're going to be – it never plays out that way in the NFL at the bottom.
44:58They're never great, but some of these teams win a few more games.
45:02And it wouldn't shock me if the Dolphins went outright.
45:06It wouldn't shock me if the Raiders cover because they're at home and whatnot.
45:10So if I had to, I would take the points.
45:13But I think the overs are really smart angle.
45:16The more I was listening to you, I was like, yeah, I think you're on to something there.
45:22Yeah, I mean like the receiver talent across the board isn't great like on both sides if you look at like the receivers.
45:29Right, they're not two guys you've got a bracket or anything like that.
45:33But these play design, these guys are so fast they're going to get open.
45:37And neither secondary is any good. Yeah, the blocking – the Raiders defense looked so bad in preseason.
45:43Yeah, so I think they're going to miss Graham.
45:46I think the offensive – like the offensive staff upgrade for the Raiders is significant.
45:50So, yeah, that's – I think that's the look there.
45:53The over. The only other over that I like is in Indianapolis.
45:57Now, it's scary. Doug, I don't know if you know.
46:00I'm a diehard Ravens fan. Okay, I do remember that.
46:04I have a very good track record of betting Ravens games.
46:07Oh, good. See, I like that because sometimes people are like, you can't bet your favorite team.
46:12I'm like, but counterpoint, you know your favorite team really well.
46:16Yeah, and I'm not afraid to bet them. Right, right.
46:19You just kind of read them well. I think that's the way most people should.
46:24I think people should bet their team if they're able to remove their bias, which most people aren't.
46:29So, right, you always want to bet on your team.
46:32But, like, you can – that's where you have the most insight, right?
46:36Like, if you're following that team extremely close and, like, you're in tune with the injuries and then, like, what this guard
46:43being out means and, like, you are so – like, if you are consuming everything about your team, if you're able to
46:50remove bias, that's probably where your biggest edge is going to be.
46:54And a lot of this is pattern behavior, right?
46:57Like, I've seen this before. You know, it's like – Yeah, exactly.
47:01So, every week I'm going to filibuster about the Ravens game.
47:04Good. Let the filibustering begin. Ravens are three and a half point favorites, total 48.
47:09I played this over. Now, it's scary because you have two QBs who didn't play in the preseason.
47:14So, you could – and this is a higher total, although it's in – it's indoors.
47:19And the Ravens do have real issues in the interior of their offensive line.
47:24They're going to be starting – they lost Linderbaum.
47:27We just mentioned him. Highest paid center now with the Raiders.
47:30You're going to be starting – you know, arguably, like, if you – if you had Linderbaum as the one, you let
47:37him go, but if he was your one, then you were going to probably start Danny Pinter, and then you lost him
47:44to injury, Ethan Pochis will probably be the starter eventually, but he's recovering from Achilles.
47:48So, now you're down to a journeyman in Gwynn who's going to make his first career start at center.
47:54Next to him is going to be a rookie guard in Yoone.
47:58So, then you bring in John Simpson who's just like an average guard.
48:02Tackles, you're okay at. So, that's a huge question.
48:05Like, does interior pressure – is there, like, snap issues?
48:08But he looked good in the preseason. I've heard from people that I really trust and from following.
48:14I think he's going to be okay. But, certainly a major question mark.
48:18The Ravens are expected to have a brand-new offensive scheme.
48:21Are you bringing Declan Doyle? You're going to have Lamar under center more.
48:25And for what it's worth – That's my concern.
48:28A 30-year-old play caller who did not call plays last year.
48:31Yeah, he was OC, but he was not calling plays.
48:35Lamar is going to be asked to read more quickly.
48:38He's under center, like you mentioned. New DC and a new head coach.
48:42I think that – I'm curious to your opinion, like, what's your read?
48:46They're singing at restaurants. Vibes are good. I mean, what's – I mean, that's part of this conversation.
48:51And, sadly, it's part of the handicap. Yeah. No, there's definitely reasons to look at the under here.
48:57Some of the things you mentioned. But Lamar under center has crushed historically.
49:01Good. If you look at his snaps, he's basically been, like, the best quarterback in the NFL.
49:06Unlike Burrow, who struggled under center. And the Bengals want to use him more under center.
49:12We'll get to that game. But I do – I think, number one, you're going to see a lot more pace from the Ravens.
49:19So they're going to be – the tempo of the Ravens offense from years past is going to go up significantly.
49:26I think Lamar – and then it was time for a change.
49:29I think he's going to thrive in this type of offense.
49:33Now, there could be grown bangs in the interior offensive line.
49:36It could be an issue. But on a fast track, not knowing what to expect.
49:41And he's destroyed the Lou Anarumo defenses. And then if you look at this Colts defense, it's not a great edge rush.
49:48So I'm not as concerned with the offensive line in this particular matchup.
49:52Now, they have, you know, Grover, Stort, and Buckner.
49:55But they're getting up there in age. Maybe they can cause some issues in the interior.
50:00But even at linebacker, I don't think you want to have issues at linebacker against this Ravens offense this year.
50:06You are going to maybe rely on two rookies.
50:09It looks like they're going to go with Akeem Gaither, who's completely washed, just for, like, the experienced.
50:14And then they're going to go with Carly's. And that's the other linebacker.
50:19Major questions. You have two really good corners. But your nickel is basically a rookie.
50:23He was hurt all last year. You're hoping for another rookie at safety in A.J.
50:28Halsey who's dealing with an injury. So it might be another rookie behind him.
50:32So there's, like, rookies and bad linebackers and not much of an edge rush.
50:37Like, I don't think that this defense is going to be very good this year.
50:41So I think the Ravens offense can cook. And I think the tempo is going to be there.
50:47And then on the other side of the ball, this Colts offense looks like they're going to be healthy.
50:53Daniel Jones, another case of the unders. Daniel Jones didn't play in the preseason coming back from injury.
50:59Just not as mobile. But Shane Steichen destroyed Minter's defense last year.
51:02Destroyed him in the flats. He had that defense running in circles.
51:06They had 38 points at the end of the third quarter.
51:10And they could not stop anything that the Colts did.
51:13I think Steichen's one of the better offensive minds in football.
51:16He's got all year to prepare. Now, Minter's going to come back with it.
51:21He's not going to run a lot just, like, as much pure quarters as he did.
51:26He's going to have some different adjustments here. But I'm not that – like, this – I don't think Matabuge is going to play.
51:33Now, he's so important to the Ravens defense. Now, he's out there in practice.
51:38He didn't have his neck thing. My assumption is he's not going to play or he's not going to be, you know, full snap count.
51:45If he does play, then I don't feel as confident because he can be a game wrecker with interior pressure, which can give Jones issues.
51:53But this Ravens defense is, like – Minter does provide – he's going to provide a schematic bump.
51:59He's very good at what he does. But I have, like – Marlon Humphrey, I think, is completely washed.
52:05I'm not sold on the defensive front. You know, I know they added Hendrickson.
52:09But especially if Matabuge doesn't play, I don't think they're going to get much pressure.
52:14At linebacker, Roquan Smith's getting up there in age.
52:17I don't think he's the same player that he used to be.
52:20You know, there are still some really good pieces.
52:23I love Kyle Hamilton. But I don't think that this defense is in the elite tier where it was a couple years ago under McDonald.
52:31So, I think Steichen – and there's going to be a lot of pace from the Colts.
52:36Historically, Minter runs a lot of light boxes. Taylor, I think, is going to have success.
52:41That's going to set up play action. And from what I saw, Steichen just knew exactly what to do against his Miner D.
52:49So, I think this turns into a sneaky shootout.
52:51Even though I do have my concerns. I played the over.
52:55But you make some good points to the under.
52:58It certainly could just end up being – Well, yeah, I'm just saying there's unknowns.
53:02Like, I'm not saying it means it's an under.
53:05Because you raise great points about – you know, they obviously played well against the Chargers last year.
53:11Put up 38 points. And, I mean, this team with – I was through three quarters, too.
53:16They didn't – This team was 7-1. And the only game they lost was the A.D.
53:21Mitchell drop nonsense. And they were just hanging whatever they wanted.
53:25So, yeah, the lowest output they had in the first eight games was 20 points because of the Mitchell thing.
53:31I mean, there are question marks, obviously, with Jones coming off the injury.
53:35But I think if he's playing, then we've got to assume, you know, he clears all protocol.
53:40And we have to expect this offense to be clicking.
53:43And I totally agree. And you know this because this is your team.
53:48But, like, I agree that the Ravens needed a change.
53:51Like, I'm not the biggest Harbaugh fan. I think he's the adult in the room.
53:55And he'll do well in New York to a certain extent.
53:59But I didn't like his game management. Everybody knows that he shouldn't have punted last year in the opener against Buffalo.
54:05I think this is a good fit for everything going on in Baltimore.
54:09I think it's a shot in the arm. But I think this Colts team was kind of, like, really impressive.
54:16I mean, you get Taylor, by the way, 20-1 to win Offensive Player of the Year.
54:21Maybe a little higher, 22-1. I don't see why this Colts offense can't click with Daniel Jones back in the mix here.
54:28So, yeah, I'm not – I wouldn't bet under.
54:30I wouldn't bet under. I just – I don't know what to expect.
54:35I'm always skeptical of a new play caller, especially a guy who's never done it.
54:39It's fair. I do actually – I also like the addition of Keenan Allen, assuming he's sober, just, like, as a third-down
54:46guy, move the chains, like, just a reliable pass catcher.
54:49I think that that was a good gap because they were going to be pretty thin at receiver without him after losing Pittman.
54:56So, yeah, I think both teams will move the ball.
55:00And, like, this – there are questions outside of, like, the corners who you never – there's always – there's health questions
55:06there, and there's not a lot – there's no depth at corner.
55:10Like, if one of these corners goes out, God forbid, I hope that Ward never has a concussion again that might end his career.
55:18But if one of these corners go out, it's bleak.
55:21Bleak. Like, so, yeah, I like the over. But I could end up with egg on my face.
55:27It's week one. Like, I'm going to end up with egg on my face in a number of games.
55:33Like, it's – that's just what's going to happen.
55:35There's going to be some teams that are just way rustier or way more in sync than I thought.
55:41And then there's going to be teams that are – these are NFL franchises trying to win games.
55:47Like, they have – they're not going to – oh, it's like, oh, we look at last year what they did.
55:53They're not going – teams are going to break tendencies.
55:57Teams are going to do different things this year.
55:59So, which is one of the most exciting things to me about watching week one.
56:04Like, trying to find out, okay, number one, how do some of these new players fit?
56:09But also, what are some of the new things that some of these teams are doing?
56:14Evan, do you have anything on – if I had to, I'd take the hook with the Colts.
56:20It's getting expensive. But just like you said, the uncertainty with a new play caller, the offensive – like, the interior offensive
56:27line could just ruin the game for the Ravens.
56:30And I do think the Colts will move the ball.
56:33So, I don't know. And it's – all these things are a work in progress, too.
56:38I mean, I'm not saying it's load management like the NBA, but as soon as each conference went to one playoff bye,
56:45you've noticed these teams are playing the long game.
56:47And especially when you're implementing a new offense and you're trying to get Lamar to do things, maybe break habits, certain habits,
56:54tendencies, they may not be a finished product in week one, I guess is my way of putting it.
57:00So, maybe eventually they're going to be great, but it's going to – it could take some time to get there with so many new parts.
57:08Yeah. Evan, do you got anything on home – just home dogs in general in week one?
57:14Honestly, it was so surprising to me. Literally nothing.
57:17Last five years, 15, 14, 28, and 28 last decade.
57:20So, week one home dogs, just really not a factor.
57:23The one thing I thought was kind of interesting in this one, like first-year head coach as a road favorite, obviously doesn't
57:30happen a lot, but hasn't been successful. Like one in seven last 20, 30 years, one in five versus guys not first year.
57:37So, obviously a difficult spot to be put into, but fascinating line.
57:41Other thing to watch here – the other thing that I like about this over that I should mention, I think Steichen is going to be aggressive.
57:49I think he's going to be aggressive on fourth downs.
57:52I expect that. I think that's going to – I think he is one of the best at making those optimal decisions.
57:59So, I think their offense like fourth and two at the 24 on the first drive of the game, they're going for it.
58:06They're not settling for the field goal. So, I think that helps over.
58:10And I think the Ravens – They don't get it.
58:14Yeah, they better get it. It's more than midfield stuff is good, right?
58:18Either way. I think the Ravens are going to be really aggressive, as well because I don't know if they have confidence in their kicker.
58:25So, as a Ravens fan, curious to see Tyler Loop and how he looks, especially after how last year ended.
58:32Kickers can just lose it. Like, it's so mental.
58:35So, he missed a kick like that. And there's been talk about replacing him, and they brought in Moody.
58:40And so, if he misses a big kick in this game, that might be it.
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63:30Best clean. Pants down. All right. Before we get to Sunday and Monday night football, we'll do some hurry-up offense, hit some
63:37of the games we're not betting, and then we'll put together our favorite picks, get to some survivor.
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64:19All right. Before we get to Sunday night and Monday night football, let's do some hurry-up offense.
64:25Games that we don't have anything on, but we'll just share quick thoughts.
64:29Browns, Jags. I mean, I can't back to Sean Watson.
64:32You might have two rookies starting on the offensive line.
64:35Some Jacksonville humidity, right? Those Florida teams usually have a benefit early in the season with the weather.
64:41There's going to be a new defensive Browns scheme without Miles Garrett.
64:44So the Jags' defense, though, is probably due for some major regression.
64:48They lose Devin Lloyd. They're not going to get as lucky with turnovers.
64:52So I still trust Liam Cohen and the offense with all their weapons.
64:56I think the Browns' defense probably takes a step back.
64:59So I was thinking I wanted to bet Jags over early.
65:03Can I really bet at the Sean Watson over?
65:06Probably not. So I'm in line with the market here.
65:09Jags' potential good teaser piece. I just can't trust Watson.
65:12And I think the Browns are doing the right thing.
65:15You start Watson on the road. Right. They start on the road twice.
65:19So you're going to go from here to Tampa.
65:22So if it fails miserably, then you pull the plug.
65:25And then you don't have to get booed at home.
65:28And then you just move on to Shador for week three.
65:32Now there's always a chance that Watson is good.
65:34And then you start 2-0. And then hooray. But I don't think I have anything here.
65:39I think Jags' teaser piece makes sense. You got anything here?
65:43Yeah. I mean, we've seen it over the years, right?
65:46Watson in the past was good. And it's just hard to trust your eyes when you see him so incredibly inept.
65:53But to take a full sort of macro view, like ownership would cut him.
65:57But it's less of a hit on the cap if you keep him.
66:01So the owners are essentially making them start. Making them start Watson.
66:05That's the only reason he's been that bad. So it's hard not to bet against him.
66:10But I do like a lot of their skill positions beyond quarterback.
66:14I mean, there are weapons. Yeah, there are weapons there.
66:17And Jacksonville, they have a bad O-line. But Leon Cohn's a great play caller.
66:21And he masks it. And they did really well with screens and all this other stuff.
66:26I think the humidity also plays a role to a certain extent against Cleveland.
66:30And I think the Browns will be frisky in a lot of games.
66:35I just don't think it's this one. I think they could get boat raced here.
66:39And they're going to be tough at home in November and December.
66:43They're going to have these rock fight games. And they're going to catch teams who haven't had a bye yet or something like that.
66:51Or maybe they'll go on the road and play well.
66:54I don't think it's this game. I'm definitely going to be using Jags and Survivor in some leagues.
66:59I think Cleveland is that dysfunctional. But reports out of camp kind of convey a buttoned-up sort of infrastructure, at least locker room, practice field.
67:07It resembles a real sort of coherent practice and everything.
67:10Because that was the knock on the Titans last year under Callahan.
67:14It was all disarray. It was chaos. And there was no sort of maturity and no adult in the room.
67:20All signs say that Cleveland kind of looks the part, at least of a real organization.
67:25They're not a complete disaster going back to the winless days.
67:29Yeah. Like, you add Boston and Concepcion with Judy.
67:32Howard Fannin is incredible. The offensive line, we'll see.
67:34I mean, you're going to need – they might be starting two rookies.
67:38So, you know, they got younger on the offensive line.
67:42The defense still has talent. Now, they have no depth at corner.
67:45Like, they can't afford any cornerback injuries. Their nickel is still very questionable.
67:49So, I think Jacksonville is probably going to spread them out.
67:53Now, and how much of the loss is – like, there's going to be new schemes on both sides.
67:59So, is there going to be an adjustment period?
68:02Miles Garrett, like, what is that loss? Garrett Burst is still really good.
68:06But how much were some of these other players benefiting from all the attention that Garrett got?
68:11And what is – He was massive. Led the league in sacks.
68:15I mean, just a complete beast. And getting doubled and chipped and, like, tripled sometimes every play.
68:20If I had to play it, I would play the Jags, actually.
68:24But I think it's a good teaser piece. You mentioned Browns late in the year at home.
68:29In December, late November, December, they have the Raiders, the Falcons, and the Colts at home.
68:34Three indoor teams. After bye. That could be a – Actually, four straight home games because they're Houston at home right before that.
68:41So, like, over a month straight at home. Yeah, against a lot of indoor teams.
68:46And quarterbacks who have struggled outdoors. Chargers, Cardinals. The – This line has come down a bit from 10.5 to 9.5.
68:53Total is sitting at 47.5. I could see why people took the 10.5.
68:57I think the Cardinals are a bit more talented than the market believes.
69:01Like, they have some good skill position pieces. The offensive line I don't think is going to be terrible.
69:07Bursette can move the ball a bit. The defense has just had so many injuries.
69:12Like, there's some young talent in the secondary. You know, Walter Nolan.
69:15It's not a great team. But I think that they can be frisky.
69:19The Chargers coming into this year with a new offense.
69:22The hope is that Mike McDaniel can unlock this offense.
69:26And she should be an upgrade in that department.
69:28But, like, the Chargers every year, there's questions along the offensive line.
69:32So, last year was the tackles that ruined them.
69:35And the interior was really bad. At least you have your tackles now.
69:39We'll see if Slater is fully healthy. But now the questions are on the interior.
69:44Because your interior might... I don't know if it's harder to be worse than it was last year.
69:49But it might be. I mean, you're going to be starting a rookie at center.
69:54You're going to have Cole Strange. Owosica. Like, the interior is not great.
69:58Because they went and got Tyler Biotish to be their center.
70:02Which was going to be a big upgrade. Because they had the worst center play in the league last year.
70:08And he got hurt. And is out for the year.
70:11Huge loss. So, we'll see how much of an impact that has.
70:15Additionally, how much of an impact does the loss of Minter have on this defense?
70:20Because Minter elevated, I think, this defense beyond its talent.
70:23Like, if you look at this defense, Derwin James is excellent.
70:26Right. But, like, Tui Polo 2 is good. But, like, look at this defensive depth chart.
70:31You're not like, wow, look at this. There's so much talent.
70:35They're loaded, yeah. So, I think schematically he elevated.
70:37Now, they're bringing in a guy who was under him on his staff that was at Western Michigan.
70:43But Western Michigan, by the way, their defense didn't look like he fell off against Michigan.
70:48I thought they were going to have a big fall off this year after losing a coordinator that's now the head of an NFL defense.
70:56So, how much of the loss of Minter will impact that defense?
71:00So, I think it made sense taking the 10.5.
71:02I made it lower than 10. Do you have anything here?
71:06So, I love Mike McDaniel. And I think people understand that he's a wizard.
71:10But, you know, over my years at ESPN, I would talk to guys who played with him when he was an assistant.
71:17They're like, he's the smartest mind I've ever been around in football.
71:21I'm like, wow, that's high praise. And I just think with all those moving parts that the Dolphins had, I think McDaniel's
71:28the reason they didn't look like the Browns offense.
71:31I really do. I just think his creativity is – and Harbaugh, I mean, not that he's the most dynamic speaker, but
71:38he's been praising McDaniel, just how much he's learned just being around him and the wizardry of him.
71:43So, I mean, Herbert should be unlocked with all this.
71:46The offense with Hampton and everything, like they should just be able to put up points and score at will, particularly against this Arizona defense.
71:54But I agree with you. This Cardinals team, I mean, I understand the low win total because of the division.
72:00But, you know, a couple turnovers, that fluky turnovers by the opposition, Arizona's going to win some games because I think Brissette
72:07raises the floor as a quarterback, obviously lower ceiling.
72:10But with those weapons and more of an offensive mind now that Gannon's gone, and like you said, the defense was banged
72:17up, so maybe their D isn't as bad as we think.
72:20This could be a high-scoring game. I mean, the Chargers may not punt.
72:25That's how much of a fan I am of McDaniel and Herbert, for that matter.
72:29He does always have those brain cramps, like to a game where you're just like, what was he looking at?
72:35How did that just happen? But other than that, if he can sort of get that out of him and flush it
72:42out, this offense should hum, pending the offensive line does its part as, you know, stays healthy.
72:48So I go back and forth. At 9.5, I would probably play the Chargers here.
72:52I think Cardinals can kind of hang around one of those things, but I think this Chargers team is going to be
72:59ready to rock at the beginning of the season.
73:02Yeah, I don't mind an overlook, especially if you think the Chargers get out.
73:07Because this Cardinals offense, we saw it all last year with the Percet, they're going to put up garbage points.
73:13They're going to just get chunk yards and garbage time and help you lay in the role of a big underdog.
73:19Lions Saints, Lions' seven-point favorite total sitting at around 50.
73:22Lions, for what it's worth, have shredded Brandon Staley defenses in recent history with Goff.
73:27The Saints are also going to use Jonas Sanker as their big nickel.
73:31More of a safety. I think he has some promise, but this is a tough matchup for his first real action in that role against Amon Ra.
73:40Like, Amon Ra could have a huge game. The Lions do have questions on defense, right?
73:45There's no—they're not healthy in the secondary. No Branch and Joseph.
73:48Are you going to have— Lost Arnold. Yeah, lost Arnold.
73:51So, like, the secondary is not going to— I think they're going to be better schematically.
73:56They said— You know, they said in the offseason they needed—they were in base way too much.
74:02They needed to study some of, like, the more advanced defenses.
74:05I think they're going to be a nickel more.
74:08So I think, like, schematically their defense is going to be a little bit better.
74:13But, you know, when you don't have two of your better players in the back end, there's still questions about the edge rush opposite of Hutchinson.
74:21The other question is, the Lions offensive line now has—this was an offensive line that you were, like, best in the NFL a couple years ago.
74:29And then, you know, Ragnow retires. You have Penny Sewell is one of the best.
74:34He's going to be moving to the left side.
74:36But you're going to have a rookie right tackle.
74:39Can Tate Rattledge take the next step? You lost your—Cade Mays is going to be your center.
74:45But now it's going to be Drew Scruggs. Not great.
74:48Mahogany. He might—the left guard is still up in the air, according to Campbell.
74:52Could be Barch. So the offensive line still has questions.
74:55And that's not great when you have Jared Goff.
74:58Like, just interior pressure will get to him. So there's—I still think the Lions offense is going to be very, very good.
75:05Like, as long as they're healthy, it's a very, very, very high floor.
75:09But the other thing is, I just don't know what we know about Tyler Shupp.
75:14He looked a lot better last year in the second half.
75:17And the Saints were definitely a more competent team.
75:20But if you look after the bye—I mean, they played—here's when Shupp played.
75:24They got blown out by the Rams, whatever. Then he played the Panthers, the Falcons.
75:29They lost the Falcons. They lost at the Dolphins with him.
75:32And then they beat the Bucs, the Panthers, the Jets, and the Titans at the end of the year.
75:38The Titans, Jets, Panthers, and the Bucs at the end of the year were in freefall mode.
75:43And then they lost to the Falcons again. So, like, who did they—who did they really beat with Shuck?
75:49It was a very favorable schedule. So he showed some promise, but it was definitely schedule-adjusted—schedule-assisted.
75:54So I—I don't know. I think that—I could see a case for the under.
75:59I could make a case for the over. I could make a case for the Saints.
76:04I could make a case for the Lions. And I'm pretty close to market.
76:08So this is a pass for me. Do you have anything here?
76:12Yeah, I would say the Saints are a little too trendy of a play with the market not moving.
76:18Like, if they were really sort of the quote-unquote the right side, I think the market would have gone to six and a half.
76:25I just think how bad the Saints team was last year is the reason it's staying at seven.
76:31Now, statistically—and Evan can chime in—teams that did not make the playoffs the year before, laying a full touchdown week one, beginning
76:38of the season, have not fared well. It fared well at all.
76:42It's, like, drastic how bad. So this feels like too high of a number.
76:46But I'm not running to the window to bet the Saints either.
76:50As you said, who was the competition? And it was Spencer Rattler, and that offense was so bad.
76:56And I like Kellen Moore. I think, you know, obviously he knows what he's doing.
77:00He showed that in Dallas. He's certainly showing it in New Orleans.
77:04But can they take the next step? I mean, Shook was an old quarterback coming out.
77:09The upside, so is his learning curve exponential like other second-year QBs?
77:13I don't know. And he had some—he wasn't great in college either.
77:17He wasn't, like, wanky where he put up huge stats.
77:20But I'm not—I'm definitely, like, this seems, like, too trendy of an underdog here.
77:24It'll be very telling. There's a lot of heavy money in some groups that—you know, these lines have been out all summer.
77:31But there's still some very heavy hitters that will come in later in the week.
77:36Right. Haven't weighed in yet until game day. It'll be very telling to see where this goes.
77:41I think over is probably a good play. I mean, these lines—like you said, the secondary is thin.
77:47Yeah, and the line—well, the other thing is all the lines do is cover.
77:51I think they're 44-22 against the spread in the last four years.
77:55Something. Evan, you got lines against the spread. Campbell's 61-39 is what I have as a head coach.
78:00Yeah, he's absurd. He's one of the best coaches, ATS, really of all time when you look at percentages.
78:06Here's the one that I put up. So, high total games with the Lions.
78:11Totals of 49-plus. When Campbell's a favorite, 19-4 straight up, 15-7-1 against the spread, winning by almost 11 points per game.
78:17And it's consistent first half and second half. It's just—they cover in these spots, but big numbers.
78:23And then finally, Bengals-Bucks. Bengals, 3.5-point favorites, total 50-1.
78:25I think that at three, the Bengals made sense.
78:28I think that this is close to fair. I mean, I'm close to 4-51.
78:33So, I'm close to marketer. Burrow under center more.
78:36In the past, he has not had success under center, but they're going to try to unlock the offense, hit more explosives.
78:42Now you're going to have to deal with the Bulls' blitz.
78:46But Burrow is finally coming into a season healthy.
78:49He finally has the same five starting offensive linemen back.
78:52But there's questions with the skill position players, like dealing with nagging injuries on both sides.
78:57So, like, that adds some uncertainty here. But if this does work, then the Bucks' secondary, I think, is vulnerable in this particular matchup.
79:04It's a pass-funnel defense, which is not ideal against Burrow.
79:07But is there going to be growing pains with, like, him going under center more?
79:12And the other question is, how real was the Bengals' defensive turnaround in the second half of last year?
79:18They had the biggest jump in efficiency from one of the biggest jumps we've seen in a decade from the first half
79:25to the second half of last season. I think it's pretty real.
79:29I mean, they changed their secondary. They changed. Golden was running this crazy shit on there.
79:34They simplified things, did what Golden usually does. And I think it was real.
79:38Some of their rookie linebackers started to play better.
79:41You know, you add Dexter Lawrence. It's – I think that there's – this defense can be around league average, but still remains to be seen.
79:49It's not going to be a great defense. They also lost Hendrickson, but Hendrickson wasn't around for most of the year last year.
79:56Baker just got paid. I think this three and a half – Does that factor into your handicap that he can relax
80:03and focus or any narrative on that? No, nothing comes to mind.
80:07How about you? Do you got anything on that?
80:10Not really. I mean, he was already kind of getting paid.
80:13It's just he didn't get his – he was already, like, comfortable, let's call it.
80:18But I do wonder sometimes these – not these holdouts, but these late sort of focus.
80:23Was he holding back in camp and things like that?
80:26It's just hard to generalize too much. I think it's case by case.
80:30That's fair. I mean, it's all about week one for the Bengals.
80:34I mean, they do not cover. They barely win.
80:37Last year they beat the Browns by one. Yeah, they struggle out of the gates almost every year.
80:42I can't lay points with them. I mean, I've learned my lesson, right?
80:46Like, the last five years or whatever it is with their coach.
80:50Yeah, part of that is – like, I do think part of that is probably because Burrow usually comes into the year
80:57– like, he's usually dealing with, like, a foot injury, right?
81:01Yeah. So – and he usually doesn't have the same five starting offensive linemen.
81:05So maybe that it could look a little better this year.
81:08I got nothing here. I'm close to market. All right, Sunday Night Football.
81:12Cowboys, Giants. A lot of storylines here. The Cowboys are sitting at around – now, drafting is three-point favorite.
81:18You can find still maybe some juice two-and-a-halves. Total 48-and-a-half.
81:22I played some under here. It's scary. But, look, week one we talked about unders.
81:26We talked about divisional unders. And you also – here's some of my other thoughts.
81:31Christian Parker comes in. Massive upgrade, I think, from a scheme perspective.
81:35Going from Iberflus to Parker from the Fangio tree.
81:38By the way, ton of familiarity with Jackson Dart and this Giants offense.
81:42And I just think they upgraded their talent across the board.
81:45And they were better with Quinton Williams up front after some of their additions last year.
81:50So I think this Dallas defense could be, like, league average, which would be significantly better than the dumpster fire that they were last year.
81:58And this is a Giants offense that – like, I mean, how healthy is Malik Nabors?
82:03If he's not at 100%, am I really afraid of this pass-catching group?
82:07Not really. So, yeah, I think that – and then I think that the Giants upgraded from a defensive coordinator perspective as well.
82:14Their pass rush could potentially provide – give Dallas some issues because their star left guard, Tyler Smith is out four to six weeks.
82:22And, you know, Bass is serviceable and he's played and he's done okay in pass protection.
82:27But he's certainly not Tyler Smith. Tyler Guyton still on the left side.
82:31So, like, the Giants might be able to take advantage of that.
82:35I also think Dallas might be able to run the ball.
82:38The Giants might want to run the ball, keep the clock moving.
82:42I don't know, 48-and-a-half. A little too high for me.
82:45Doug, at 2-and-a-half, you like the Cowboys? I do.
82:48I think at full strength. And I think the defense is going to be ready to rock.
82:53They don't have to be all-world. They just have to be sort of medium.
82:57And the offense will take care of the rest.
83:00The top five offense when they're clicking. And I think too much is being made of the Giants.
83:06Oh, you know, they had all those blown leads.
83:09New coach, Harbaugh's great. He's not a world – you know, he's not a world beater at head coach.
83:15And I'm not afraid of those other wide receivers that you mentioned outside of neighbors.
83:19And I think it'd be close. But at 2-and-a-half, they got the best kicker in the game.
83:25And Dallas, I think defense is going to be good enough.
83:28I think they should be really smooth and easy on offense.
83:32We've seen this before. I don't think it's going to be one of those beatdowns like we saw a few years ago, like 50-10 or something.
83:40But I do think they're going to score at will.
83:43First half over – a lot of trends between these – you know, for these teams.
83:48I like Dallas here. 2-and-a-half, I think it's the right play.
83:51I'm not – sometimes I get the old-school NFL, like you lay points on the road.
83:56So, you know, I think it's certain situations where I almost like to lean into it because the odds makers and the betting market is so stubborn.
84:05Like certain lines can't get too high when I think it's going to be a blowout.
84:10That's sometimes where you can strike against the NFL.
84:13I think this is a game where I think in another world this would be like four.
84:18Yeah. If I had a bet, especially at 2-and-a-half, I would most likely bet the Cowboys as well.
84:24The Giants' offensive staff as well, like very underwhelming.
84:26So, like I'm not worried about them having some – I mean, Matt Nagy's the offensive coordinator.
84:32So, I'm not worried about them having some extremely mind-blowing game plan.
84:36And Darts got upside for sure, but he's not this polished QB that some of these other young quarterbacks are.
84:42Yep. But Dak has owned, for what it's worth, he's owned the Giants.
84:46Like destroyed them every single year. I feel like I've seen this game a million times.
84:51Devin, do you have anything on Dak against the Giants?
84:54I know he's crushed the NFC East. I know specifically against the Giants, he's done some wild stuff.
85:00He had 14-3 straight up. Just dominate. And then, like, his numbers are silly.
85:04NFC East is 32-15 ATS. Wild. Yeah, Dak owns the division.
85:07Monday night, Chiefs Broncos. The Chiefs are a two-and-a-half-ish point favorites.
85:11It's like flirted with three. Total 43-and-a-half. I played the under here.
85:15Another under that I have. My gut says the Chiefs get it done.
85:19But the Chiefs have questions all over this roster.
85:22I mean, for starters, just on the offensive side of the ball, Mahomes is his first game back.
85:27I doubt he's going to be running as much, which is a huge part of their offense.
85:33Like him creating and running. So, like, and then there might be some rust.
85:37Like his first game back, didn't play in the preseason, coming off of an injury.
85:42And it looks like your tackles are going to be Jalen Moore and then an undrafted free agent at left tackle going up against Nick Benito.
85:50That is an undrafted free agent, rookie free agent that didn't play left tackle in college in Indiana.
85:55That is scary. For Mahomes' first game back. So what did the Chiefs do?
86:00Well, they signed Kenneth Walker. So I assume that they're going to be more run heavy.
86:05This is one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL.
86:09Mahomes' first game back. Major questions of tackle going up against this aggressive Denver defense.
86:13I think they're going to run it more. But I don't know if this offense is going to have a ton of success.
86:20I mean, Kelsey can't really rely on him anymore.
86:23These receivers just continue to be underwhelming. Now, and the Denver defense, very high floor.
86:28They might take a step back. There's no Cooper who's suspended.
86:31They lost John Franklin Myers. But it's still a very, very good defense.
86:36And then on the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense has questions too.
86:40Like, you're looking at this Chiefs defense. They lose McDuffie and Watson.
86:44It looks like Chamari Conner is going to be out.
86:47Ashton Jelotti is going to be out. It's like Chris Jones is not getting any younger.
86:52Bold and tranquil, reliable. But like, at linebacker. But the secondary now is like Gilman in his first time starting in the Spagnuolo defense.
87:00A rookie corner. You need to be really good.
87:02LeJarius Sneed is probably going to be in the slot.
87:06Like, is he completely washed? What does he have left?
87:09You know, Noel Williams has shown flashes, but still very inexperienced.
87:12And then your other safeties now probably going to be Jaden Hicks.
87:16I trust Spags to have a good enough game plan against Knicks to just do enough.
87:21I think the Chiefs are going to run it.
87:24I think this will... These matchups are all... In the last three years, have been extremely low scoring.
87:29The past four years, Chiefs home games have gone under.
87:33The under has gone 26-8. 76.5% going under by six points per game.
87:37Chiefs Broncos, the last three years, 6-0 to the under.
87:40Average 35 total points in those games. I think there's going to be some rust with Mahomes.
87:45I think they're going to run it more. These tackles are an issue against this aggressive Denver defense.
87:51And I'm going to trust Spags to have enough schematically to slow down Knicks.
87:55Who usually starts slow and it's ugly early. New play caller, too, in Denver.
87:59We'll see. Yeah, that's weird because Sean Payton just wants to focus on game management.
88:04I guess he's 62 and moving sort of... But Davis Webb was...
88:08Didn't he interview for the Bills job? He's very highly sought after.
88:12But we'll see. Sean Payton. Payton's still going to have the play sheet out.
88:16So he might be like, no, no, no. We're going to do this.
88:20I am worried about the Chiefs defense. Really? I love Spags.
88:24So you're still worried? I love Spags and Reid and Mahomes.
88:27Yeah, I'm just saying talent-wise. And now Connor was going to start at safety.
88:31He's out. So... And then, like, edge rush is still questionable.
88:35But I'm trusting Spags here against an opponent he's very familiar with.
88:39I think the under is a very good call.
88:41So I'm going to be on the under. No discrepan for you.
88:45I mean, look. You have elite defensive coordinators. Elite defenses, for the most part.
88:50The personnel. Casey, you know, like you said, a little off.
88:53But... And then these quarterbacks, right? I mean, Mahomes will play.
88:57It's not going to be in peak form. First game.
89:00And I like Bo Nix. I think... Something I always say is, players are allowed to get better.
89:05We always forget that. Like, in college hoops, some team in December.
89:09Like, they're allowed to get better until March, right?
89:12I think Nix can improve. But the problem is, he's coming off the ankle surgery.
89:17How much has he been able to develop this entire offseason?
89:20I think Jalen Waddell's a very underrated acquisition. Yeah.
89:23That is not getting mentioned enough. But there is the logical regression.
89:27They were 11-2 in one-score games. Everyone talks about the Bears' comeback wins.
89:31They had... The Broncos had the NFL record 12 comeback wins last year.
89:35So, I think under... Coming down to the wire, I'd have to take the points if I had to take a side.
89:42Getting three. Especially in pick-em leagues. I can't lay it.
89:45But it's so hard to bet against Mahomes, Reed, and Spags when the number's that low.
89:50But also, Broncos were really good on grass last year.
89:53Again, that's part of that. It's the one-score game record.
89:56These coin floats. But they did well in certain situations.
89:59I think it's a low-scoring game. Maybe the Broncos win.
90:02Broncos' good teaser piece. That two and a half.
90:05Yes. Yes, very much so. You know, what should be a lower-scoring game.
90:09The most fitting outcome would be Chiefs win by three.
90:12The Chiefs lost all the one-possession games last year.
90:15The Broncos won them all. Chiefs host the Broncos and win like 20-17.
90:19But there's certainly questions on the Chiefs. And with Mahomes coming back, we'll see how effective he is.
90:25All right, let's get to our underdog Moneyline Parlay presented by DraftKings.
90:29Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the Moneyline Parlay.
90:32I'll kick things off. I'm going to go with the Panthers.
90:36The Bears are high-regression candidates. Ben Johnson's even talked about it.
90:39But they have no pass rush. Panthers' offensive line has injury questions.
90:43They're going to be without their tackles. I still think they'll be okay.
90:47But I'm not as worried about their offensive line against this non-existent pass rush that the Bears don't have.
90:53The defensive regression is coming for the Bears. They also have a ton of injuries, right?
90:58They're going to be relying on a rookie's safety.
91:01They're going to be relying on Kobe Bryant. He got hurt.
91:04Kyler Gordon, one of the better slots in the league.
91:07I don't know if he's ever going to play for the Bears again.
91:12So now there's questions all over this defense. They're most likely not going to get a million turnovers in key situations again.
91:18So I think the Panthers will be able to move the ball.
91:22Additionally, I think the Panthers got – they infused their defense with more talent.
91:27They disguised their coverages pre-snap. They did it at the highest rate in the NFL last year.
91:32That is when Caleb Williams struggled. His numbers really fell off a cliff against teams that disguised their coverages pre-snap.
91:38So I think they want to run a cover three, disguise.
91:42I think Caleb could throw a couple picks here.
91:44Mike struggled a bit. Roma Dunze now dealing with an injury.
91:48So, yeah, I think Panthers at home. I'll take a shot with Carolina.
91:52Where are you going to go? Yeah, I can see that.
91:55They've definitely demonstrated how much more competent they are.
91:58Obviously won the division last year, albeit with a losing record.
92:02And then hung around with the Rams. And I think I'm not a Bryce Young fan.
92:07No, neither am I. He's too tiny. I mean, I root for him because he's like an All-American guy, great leader.
92:13He's just tiny. And typically that doesn't work well at that position in the NFL.
92:18But they have, Canalis and company have figured out a way to lean into his strengths, figured out passing lanes.
92:24He's really good as a home underdog. Bears, I mean, like you said, Caleb Williams, who I like, and his ceiling is very high.
92:32But he's still got those old habits from USC where he can sort of, it's like backyard sandlot stuff.
92:38Like figuring out the plays after the snap. So I could see that sort of backfiring against the team.
92:44Like you said, disguises looks so well and so often before the snap.
92:48So no way I'd lay the points there. All right.
92:51What are you going with for your money on underdog?
92:54I know it's tragic out of the gates, but I'm going to take the Jets.
92:59I really think they're going to win this game.
93:02And some of it is a bet on New York as much as it is a bet against Tennessee.
93:07So a couple things. The Jets should dominate the trenches.
93:11They, like Tennessee is one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
93:15And the Jets are trending in the right direction last year.
93:18And in terms of offense, obviously we know they have Garrett Wilson.
93:22And I think Brees Hall is going to be fine.
93:25And I'm not a Geno fan. So like I'm a Raiders fan.
93:29And when they announced that they were acquiring him and getting him, I was just like so bummed out.
93:35And I was like, this is terrible. Goes against everything.
93:38This is just going to be a duct tape or bandaid on a wound.
93:42And now you find yourself in the first game.
93:45But he's not as bad as he was last year.
93:48Like I think it's ridiculous. He's scheduled. You know, he's the favorite to leave the league in turnovers or interceptions.
93:54Like the offensive line last year for the Raiders was just horrific.
93:58It was a turnstile. Now he'll be fine in this offense.
94:02And I think he's got a little chip on his shoulder.
94:05I think they're the better team. Now you got to be careful.
94:09You can't expect bad teams to do good things.
94:12But I do think they're going to win this game.
94:15And dare I say, do they pick off Cam Ward?
94:18Finally get an interception as opposed to last year?
94:21It's plus money. I'm betting. Yeah, why not? You can Mark and Gale it the rest of the year.
94:27It's just fluky that they didn't get one. No interceptions last year.
94:31The offense of Tennessee is really bad. I like Cam Ward.
94:34Like I thought he should have won the Heisman.
94:37But in terms of this offense and everything, I don't think they're going to do much against it.
94:42I think it's kind of an under. I understand the low total.
94:46I think it's low for a reason. But I think the Jets win this game.
94:51Yeah. I mean, look. Cedric Gray also got like a UTV accident.
94:55He's a tackling machine for the Titans. He might be out.
94:58Their defense, not a lot of talent on the back end.
95:02It's like Jeffrey Simmons. Their offensive line is bad.
95:04And then you would like Cam Ward still has like some like early Kayla Williams issues.
95:09Like trying to like footwork, trying to play hero ball.
95:12So maybe now that there's like more adults in the room will be better.
95:17But in the preseason, it was ugly. So like it's still, I know it's the preseason, but still a major work in progress.
95:24And Dayball has great sort of numbers as an OC.
95:27But like how much is that as Josh Allen?
95:30Dayball's numbers weren't great when it wasn't Josh Allen, right?
95:33So yes, give him credit for, you know, bringing Allen along and becoming an MVP type player.
95:39But it's not going to happen overnight. I like Salah.
95:42He's fine. I don't think, but I don't think the Salah like revenge game is like a big thing for me.
95:48I like the Jets too. I think they win.
95:51They have like real talent on the team. Like they went out and I love their draft and they signed like real floor raising veterans on the defense.
96:00Now, I mean, you look at this just on offense now, you know, the offensive line has potential.
96:05You know, it's especially if these tackles keep progressing.
96:08But now you have like Mason Taylor and Sadiq at tight end.
96:12A.D. Mitchell, Wilson at wide receiver. Brees Hall. Like there's real talent on this offense.
96:17And then they just, I loved a lot of the signings that they made on the defensive side of the ball.
96:23So I think they have a significantly, well, I shouldn't say significantly, but a much better roster overall than the Titans, who
96:30I still think are going to struggle. That part of Lake was at the plus 371.
96:35And you should be looking to place that at DraftKings because all throughout the month of September, DraftKings has given you profit boosts on every game day.
96:44Just one of the many reasons that the crown is yours.
96:47And yeah, my teaser of the week. My teaser that I had bet earlier would still bet it.
96:53You got to get up over seven, but it would be Panthers and Jets.
96:57But the other ones that make sense, Broncos talked about and the Jags.
97:01Jags below three and what should be a lower score with a lower total.
97:06Broncos above eight and what should be a lower scoring game.
97:09But my teaser that I played this week with Panthers and the Jets over a touchdown.
97:14All right, let's get the survivor. The survivor pool pick of the week.
97:18I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I don't want to go.
97:22I thought about the Raiders. I try to be like riskier early on.
97:26I'm going with the Steelers. I think now there are questions in the secondary.
97:30Is Joey Porter going to play? And I don't know.
97:33And then I love Patrick Graham, though. And I love their front.
97:37But this is so this is like a defense I was like really high on.
97:42But like what's what's going on with Joey Porter and then they lose Deshaun Elliott at safety.
97:47So what is going to happen? They're going to have to play Ray Sean Jenkins is I think that what they'll probably
97:54do is play more base with Ramsey at safety.
97:57But I don't know like Ramsey is going to be the full nickel.
98:01Elliott and their defense fell off a cliff last year when he was out.
98:05He was going to be the safety. But now he's hurt again.
98:09It really changes everything. And now you have this Porter question.
98:13So there are some questions. But do I trust Tua right now?
98:16Absolutely not. No. So, yeah, I mean, look, they have good skill position talent.
98:21But Pittsburgh at home. This game looks to me like an under two.
98:25Like how many short passes we're going to have in this game with two quarterbacks just want to get rid of the ball.
98:32Now, the other thing is the Falcons defense last year.
98:35Huge surprise. They're going to blitz a lot early, which means that Rodgers is going to want to get rid of the ball quick.
98:43But they're not going to get the same level of pressure without Walker, without Pierce, without some of the other losses that they had.
98:50I still like their back end. This profile is the lowest in the game.
98:55I think the Steelers get it done. I'm going to go with Pittsburgh.
98:59And the other reason I'm going to go with Pittsburgh is an older roster.
99:03And, like, so if there's injuries, I think they're going to be more injury prone than other teams.
99:09So maybe they're not. You know, maybe there's a mess.
99:12So you use them while they're fresh. I don't mind using the Steelers.
99:16I don't think they're going to be a popular pick.
99:19So I'm going to go with Pittsburgh. I just I trust Rodgers more than Tua at this point.
99:25And I think Graham has always done a lot with Aless.
99:28Now he actually has a lot of talent on that defense.
99:32Now, the secondary questions make a little murkier, but I think Steelers get it done.
99:36What are you doing for your survivor? So I'll be using the Steelers in some as well.
99:42Great analysis on their age. I didn't think about that.
99:45So I like that. I like the Chargers here.
99:48I'll take them. I mean, I'm close to the Jacksonville, but that Cleveland, I mean, there is a world like I'm more confident in the Chargers offense.
99:56And yes, Arizona is going to, I think, cover a lot, be better.
100:00I don't know if they'll be as bad as their win total indicates, but I'll roll with the Chargers here.
100:06I am going to use this. I do like your Steelers play.
100:10I'm going to use them in some pools as well.
100:13All right. And then finally, our official contest picks.
100:16I will give my three, which would basically would be the three for the old Sunday six pack.
100:22I'm going with the Rams. Just too much talent, too many injury questions.
100:26I know that there's uncertainty with the travel, but I'm going with the Rams minus three and a half.
100:32I'm going with the Panthers now to plus three.
100:35That's out there. This Bears defense takes a big step back.
100:38I think the Panthers defense can do some things that cause Caleb some issues, some injury questions with the Bears as well.
100:45I think plus three is too much to pass up.
100:48And then I'm going to go. We got to take full game.
100:52I'm going to go with the Texans plus one and a half.
100:56Broke that game down earlier. Doug, who are your two that you're throwing in for our five?
101:01Oh, why wouldn't you want to use the Jets?
101:04No, I'm going to take the I am going to take the Jets.
101:08I think it's I don't want to say those famous words of wrong team favorite.
101:13They can't be favored on the road, obviously, but I like getting the extra couple points.
101:18This is a low scoring game. Low total coming down to the wire.
101:22I think they're the better team, and I think it starts and ends with the trenches more than anything.
101:28So both sides of the ball in the trenches, the Jets, and I think that the skill position players are better as well.
101:35So I like New York with the few candy on the road in Tennessee.
101:39And then I'm going to lay it in the game we haven't really discussed is Philly.
101:44I think this Washington O-line is just in shambles right now.
101:48A lot of issues. I think this Eagles team is going to have sort of an axe to grind and chip on their shoulder without A.J.
101:56Brown. Devontae should go off, by the way. But I like Philly here.
102:00I think they, I mean, remember they solved their O.C.
102:03issue last year. Their defense is top five. I like Jaden Daniels.
102:07But with that offensive line against this defense, I think there should be some significant problems.
102:12And getting it under six. Obviously, the market's gone up a little bit from four and a half, but I think under six is worth a play here.
102:20Yeah, you're going to have a new Washington offense, like maybe Daniels under center more.
102:25So like there could be some growing pains there.
102:28People don't mention he thrived when Kingsbury was the O.C.
102:31Kingsbury was like a new toy. Daniels wasn't banged up as a rookie and he was great.
102:36And then Kingsbury leaves. Things fall apart. Like Kingsbury, I mean, I have to see people teased him and all that stuff,
102:43all those memes and everything in his Arizona as a head coaching days.
102:47But he knows what he's doing as an O.C.
102:50And really, Daniels has not been the same since.
102:53Yeah. And look, I also think, I think the Eagles make sense there.
102:57I also love, I bet, talked about this in the preseason and the under, the under has been hit from 47 half down to 44 and a half.
103:06I can't play it now. But if one of these teams, why does the under make sense?
103:11Like offensive line issues for Washington are, I mean, you lose Laramie Tunsil, you're, it's a disaster right now.
103:17Going to Philly against that defense with offensive line issues and a new offensive scheme, like that doesn't, isn't a recipe for success.
103:24Eagles also breaking in a new offensive scheme. So there could be growing pains there.
103:29Washington's defense still not going to be great, but at least they got faster and younger.
103:34Like it's not going to be just where they're open space all over the place.
103:39I'm not sure how Hurts is going to operate in this new offense and trying to throw over the middle field.
103:45I think there's going to be an adjustment period, but I think the Eagles defense should dominate this game.
103:51It's the best unit in this game by far.
103:54And I think that if with the under, like at 47 and a half, I really liked it.
104:00Now it's a 44 and a half. I can't chase that number.
104:04But if there's like, these are new offenses. If there's like a really good script by either one of them and they
104:10go down and score a touchdown and I can get a live under, that's what I'll look at.
104:16But for the contest, Doug's going with the Jets plus one and a half at the Titans.
104:21I'm going with the Rams minus three and a half against the 49ers.
104:26Doug's also going with the Eagles minus five and a half at home against the Commanders.
104:31And then I'm closing it out with the Panthers plus three at home against the Bears.
104:36And the Texans plus one and a half at home against the Bills.
104:40That'll do it for us. It's a long one.
104:42It's week one. They won't always be this long, but we got to go through every game, all the primetime games.
104:49Thanks to Doug for joining me. Awesome first episode.
104:52Looking forward to going through the year with you.
104:55Thanks to Evan. As always, thanks to our producers on the back end.
104:59Most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in.
105:02Make sure you subscribe, unsubscribe, subscribe, tell a friend, tell an I'm you know the drill.
105:07A five-star review really helps us out this time of the year.
105:11Follow along on the Action Network app for all of our picks.
105:14Good luck this weekend. Enjoy the NFL being back.
105:17We'll see you next Wednesday. Cheers. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
105:21If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
105:27This is Tony Ayo from The Real Report with Tony Ayo and Uncle Murda.
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106:02This is Chelsea Halner from Dear Chelsea. If you travel a lot with your dog like I do with Doug, feeding them
106:09well on the road can get surprisingly complicated. Especially when you're touring 30-plus cities, staying in hotels, flying, driving, and basically living out of a suitcase.
106:17Frozen dog food sounds great until you realize you don't exactly have a freezer backstage.
106:22That's why I started bringing Just Fresh from Just Food for Dogs.
106:26It's real fresh dog food made with human-grade ingredients with meat and vegetables you can see in the bowl.
106:32But the difference is it's shelf-stable, which means I don't need a freezer or a cooler and there's no prep.
106:38So now I can throw a few packs in my bag and Doug still gets a healthy meal wherever we are.
106:45Doug absolutely loves it and I like knowing I am feeding my baby something that's actually good for him.
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106:58Honey, Felipe sent another photo. From Argentina? How? With T-Mobile, of course.
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107:22Mom, can I have Lingo Kids? Dad, Lingo Kids, please!
107:25When did we become the Lingo Kids house? No idea.
107:28Last week it was dinosaurs. This week it's... Lingo Kids!
107:31Why Lingo Kids? Because it's the best thing ever.
107:34We can play games. With astronauts. Wild animals. And superheroes.
107:37With more than 4,000 interactive games, songs, and shows, Lingo Kids is the number one entertainment platform for young kids.
107:44So, no dinosaurs? And dinosaurs! Lingo Kids! Everything kids love.
107:47Download it for free. Don't. Please don't tail this guy.
107:50I know it's easier. He sounds sure. But listen, you don't want to chase another guy's pics, man.
107:55You should see the way he dresses. It's all a monthly subscription where he gets his clothes chosen for him.
108:02That's the guy you want to make the pick after?
108:05No. The pick should be yours. Do something you actually believe in, and if you're on Underdog and you lock in, you can let him chase your tail.
108:14Now you're a dog. Underdog. Make your pick. Unleash your dog.
108:17Terms may apply.
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