2026 NFL MVP Betting Preview

Ayo ranks Mayfield 8th for MVP at 50-1, favoring him over Murray and Jones due to the soft NFC South and the Bucs' potential to contend for the 1-seed. Ayo notes Mayfield is a 'media darling' who has proven he can produce high-end stats.

Nix is considered a 1% candidate for MVP. While he led the league in passing attempts and had seven game-winning drives last year, Brandon Anderson warns of regression risk because game-winning drives are not a sustainable metric to rely on. Additionally, the Broncos face a brutal opening schedule.

Ayo ranks Purdy 7th at 20-1, citing his consistent 7% touchdown rate and potential to be the 'glue' for a 49ers team dealing with injuries to stars like McCaffrey and Bosa. Ayo views him as a legitimate 1-seed contender.

Brock Purdy is currently priced at 17-to-1 for MVP, which is considered an insulting comparison to Patrick Mahomes' odds.

Stroud is viewed as a 1% MVP candidate. Despite the expectation that Houston's defense will be elite, Stroud has not demonstrated the high-end statistical production required for MVP, having never exceeded 23 passing touchdowns or ranked in the top 20 in EPA per play.

Williams is a 2% MVP candidate. He has struggled with efficiency, ranking 25th in EPA per play, and has yet to hit 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns. The Bears' run-heavy scheme under Ben Johnson may help the team win, but it historically limits the quarterback's individual MVP-level statistical output.

Caleb Williams is currently priced at 17-to-1 for MVP, which is considered an insulting comparison to Patrick Mahomes' odds.

Ayo ranks Prescott 6th at 14-1, noting his strong EPA and weapons, but expresses concern about the Cowboys' tough schedule and the tendency for the team to collapse in high-profile games. Ayo is okay with the price but sees better plays elsewhere.

Tony Ayo ranks Jones 10th for MVP at 150-1, noting his strong 2023 pace (4,400 yards, 37 TDs) before injury. While the schedule (Ravens, Chiefs, Texans) is daunting, Ayo suggests the price might get longer, making him a potential add to a portfolio later.

Ayo ranks May 5th at 11-1, acknowledging his talent but warning against betting him now due to a daunting early schedule (Seattle, Steelers, Jaguars, Bills). Ayo expects regression from his high efficiency last year and suggests waiting for a better price.

Drake Maye is categorized in the second tier of MVP candidates alongside Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, with each assigned approximately a 6% chance of winning.

Hurts is a 1% MVP candidate. Brandon Anderson notes that Hurts has never thrown for 4,000 yards or 25 touchdowns in a season, his rushing value is fading, and the loss of AJ Brown combined with an aging offensive line makes a breakout MVP campaign unlikely this year.

Daniels is a 2% MVP candidate. While he showed high value as a rookie, he lacks the supporting cast—specifically a strong offensive line, proven weapons, or a reliable defense—to reach the 13-14 win threshold required for an MVP season.

Ayo ranks Burrow 3rd at 10-1, noting that while he likes the scheme improvements and offensive line, the current price already reflects that optimism. Ayo plans to target Burrow later in the season for his favorable November/December schedule.

Joe Burrow is considered a viable MVP candidate, but the current 10-to-1 odds are not an optimal entry point; it is better to wait for a more favorable price later in the season.

Despite Jordan Love's strong EPA metrics, Tony Ayo advises against betting him for MVP. The Packers have a bottom-five offensive line, no clear run game with Josh Jacobs out, and questions surrounding their receiving corps and defense. Love lacks the voter history/reputation to win, and Ayo believes the team's overall lack of elite status prevents Love from being a viable MVP candidate.

Ayo ranks Allen 4th at +650, calling him the most valuable player to his team but noting his stats have declined under Joe Brady's run-heavy scheme. Ayo is concerned about the Bills' defense and a difficult opening schedule, making him a 'no bet' for now.

Josh Allen is priced higher than the combined cost of betting on both Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, making him a less attractive value proposition for MVP betting.

Tony Ayo labels Justin Herbert at 10-to-1 odds as the single worst MVP bet on the board. He cites a lack of proven interior offensive line, a rookie center, an unknown offensive scheme, and a new defensive coordinator. Herbert has failed to hit 4,000 yards in three seasons or 30 passing touchdowns in four, and he ranked 20th in EPA per play last year. Additionally, the Chargers face a brutal mid-season schedule gauntlet from weeks three through nine.

Kenneth Walker is expected to contribute to a more balanced Chiefs offense, helping to restore the run game that was missing in previous seasons.

Ayo ranks Murray 9th for MVP at 50-1, arguing he has his best ecosystem yet with a potential top-10 line and top-5 weapons. Despite never hitting 4,000 yards or 27 TDs, Ayo believes KOC's scheme could boost his touchdown production.

Lamar Jackson is a top MVP pick at 11-to-1 odds, representing a significant buy-low opportunity compared to his previous 550 price; he benefits from a soft early schedule and a history of winning MVP in years with new offensive coordinators.

Stafford is the reigning MVP, but he faces a major historical hurdle as only five players have ever won back-to-back MVPs, and none have done so in the modern era except Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Brandon Anderson notes that while Stafford was a successful 50-to-1 pick last year, the statistical improbability of a repeat makes him a poor bet this season.

Tony Ayo argues against betting Matthew Stafford to repeat as MVP, noting that back-to-back MVPs are historically rare. Stafford's 7.7% touchdown rate last year was an outlier compared to his 4% average over the previous three years. Furthermore, the Rams' high expectations and strong supporting cast mean Stafford doesn't need to be the 'most valuable' player for the team to win, and a difficult early schedule including a game in Australia creates high risk for early-season losses.

Patrick Mahomes is a primary MVP target at 17-to-1 odds, which is viewed as an extreme market overreaction to last year's 6-11 record; he is projected to regress positively in one-score games and benefits from a more balanced offense with an improved offensive line.

While Trevor Lawrence showed promise in the final seven games of last season, Tony Ayo warns of significant regression signals. The late-season surge came against a weak schedule (Arizona, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Jets, Denver). The Jaguars have a bottom-three offensive line, lack a run game, and face a difficult opening schedule including neutral-site 'home' games in London against Philly and Houston.

The Rams drafted Ty Simpson, which Tony Ayo suggests could allow the team to rest Matthew Stafford for a week or two if he deals with his recurring back injury.