NFL Betting Playground | Week 1
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 11, 2026
Published
Fri, September 11, 2026
21
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Cade OttonDeshaun WatsonJosh AllenAaron RodgersC.J. StroudChris OlaveErick AllGeno SmithJames CookJordan LoveJordyn TysonJosh JacobsKenneth Walker IIIMalik Willis
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Rodgers
NegativeMatchup48:33
Matt Rogers suggests that Aaron Rodgers struggles against teams with a strong pass rush because he is 'terrified to take a hit.' Rogers notes that Atlanta's defense lacks the pass-rushing talent to exploit this, but remains skeptical of Rodgers' overall comfort level.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
NegativeProjection69:11
Matt Rogers highlights that C.J. Stroud has a strong trend of home unders, with a 17-6 record (74%) in those games, supporting the under bet for the upcoming Bills-Texans matchup.
Insight pageCade Otton
PositiveUsage32:37
Cade Otton is the primary tight end for the Buccaneers, as he accounted for almost all tight end catches for the team last year. Given that the Bengals allowed the most tight end catches in the league last year (116), Otton is a high-upside play for receptions. Anderson suggests targeting his high-reception escalators, specifically 6 catches at +650, noting his tendency to have big games when involved.
Insight pagePositiveUsage33:58
Matt Rogers highlights that Cade Otton has had eight games with six or more catches over the last two years, including multiple games with seven, eight, or nine receptions. Rogers is targeting Otton for high-reception props, specifically six-plus catches at +650, seven-plus at +1280, and eight-plus at 23-to-1.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveProjection35:18
Matt Rogers projects a high-volume game for Chris Olave against a weak Lions secondary. Olave's efficiency significantly improved with Tyler Shuck at quarterback last season, with his yards per route run jumping from 1.6 to 2.4. In seven games with Shuck, Olave averaged 6.5 catches and 86 yards on 10 targets per game.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeProjection57:00
Brandon expects Deshaun Watson to look terrible in the Browns' Week 1 matchup against the Jaguars, which will likely cause the betting line for the following week's game against the Buccaneers to shift in Tampa's favor.
Insight pageNegativeProjection57:12
Matt Rogers is actively betting against Deshaun Watson, citing a lack of trust in his ability to perform on the road against a quality Jacksonville defense.
Insight pageErick All
PositiveBreakout27:07
Eric All is identified as the Bengals' primary 'do-everything' tight end who both blocks and catches passes. With the Bengals' lack of depth at the position and the Buccaneers' historical struggles defending tight ends, All is a sleeper target for receptions. Anderson recommends betting his over 1.5 catches at +145, with escalators up to 4 catches at +1200.
Insight pageGeno Smith
NegativeProjection59:06
Matt Rogers notes that while he does not love Geno Smith, he considers him a better quarterback option than Cam Ward in the context of the Jets' matchup against the Titans.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveUsage43:00
Matt Rogers notes that James Cook is a good player and the Bills' offensive line is strong, suggesting they will likely generate a few explosive plays on the ground against the Texans' defense.
Insight pageJordan Love
NegativeProjection45:46
Brandon notes that Jordan Love has historically struggled against Brian Flores' Vikings defense, and the Packers' offense is currently hampered by a lack of healthy key contributors and a bottom-five offensive line.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveInjury36:56
Matt Rogers notes that Jordan Tyson is currently on IR with a hamstring injury, which further cements Chris Olave's role as the primary target in the Saints' passing attack.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeUsage43:00
Matt Rogers expects Josh Allen to contribute some rushing explosives via scrambles, but notes the Bills lack top-tier wide receivers to consistently beat the Texans' defense downfield in the passing game.
Insight pageNegativeMatchup67:19
Matt Rogers is betting the under on the Bills-Texans game, noting that Josh Allen has historically struggled against Houston's man-coverage defense. Allen's dropback success rate in his last two games against Houston ranked 35th and 36th out of his 37 games.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury45:46
Brandon identifies Josh Jacobs as one of the three most important Packers players and notes he is currently missing time, which negatively impacts the team's outlook.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeMatchup10:46
Kenneth Walker faces a difficult debut against a Denver run defense that has been elite over the last few years, making it a poor matchup for his first game.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveUsage21:57
Brandon Anderson expects the Dolphins to build their offense around Malik Willis's rushing ability, noting his average of 51 rushing yards per game over his last five starts. Willis has cleared 36.5 rushing yards in each of his last five starts, and Anderson suggests betting his rushing overs and touchdown props, citing the Raiders' poor defense against mobile quarterbacks.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeUsage46:26
Brandon points out that the Packers' rushing attack is extremely inexperienced, with Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and Caleb Johnson having combined for only 480 career rushing yards.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeProjection10:17
Patrick Mahomes is coming off an ACL injury with no preseason work, leading to expectations of rust, particularly in the first half. Additionally, the Chiefs' offensive line is compromised with left tackle Josh Simmons out, forcing undrafted rookie Khalil Benson into the lineup, which creates a difficult matchup against Denver's pass rush. Mahomes has historically trended toward the under as a home favorite, hitting the under in 76% of games since 2022.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
NegativeProjection47:27
Matt Rogers expresses significant skepticism toward Tua Tagovailoa, citing his poor performance in his last regular-season game against Pittsburgh and rumors regarding his job security. Rogers is betting against him in the upcoming matchup.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeInjury45:46
Brandon notes that while Tucker Kraft is expected to play, he likely will not be at 100% health, making him a questionable asset for the Packers' offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:42This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
0:46This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
0:50You know when people try a new food and suddenly it's like, okay, hold on, I got a new favorite food!
0:57That's the reaction a lot of people are having when they first try Kewpie mayo.
1:01Yeah, it's the one with the red cap and the little baby on the bottle.
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1:10Mm-hmm. Most mayonnaise uses whole eggs. Kewpie only uses egg yolks, which gives it this rich umami flavor.
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1:20Egg sandwiches, fries, burgers. Chefs use it. Restaurants use it.
1:23People who really care about flavor use it. Put it on just about anything.
1:28Then you'll understand. Kewpie, the original Japanese mayonnaise. Hi there.
1:31What are we planting? Tomatoes. The kind people will talk about.
1:34Oh, gotcha. I want to grow tomatoes that start conversations.
1:37Have you thought about heirlooms? They are very provocative.
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2:19Visit disneyonice.com and get your tickets today. The Action Network Podcast.
2:22I'm just about that action, boss. All right, here we go.
2:26From the tent, throwing in zone. You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
2:31Oh my God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.
2:36All right? That is the ultimate kibosh. You want to bet?
2:39This is the Action Network Podcast, and this is Brandon Anderson's Playground.
2:43My name is Matt Moore. You might know me from Buckets, our NBA podcast here on the Action Network.
2:49And I'll be joining Brandon Anderson every Friday to give you his best bets along with ladders, shoots, sandbox plays, parlays, long
2:56shots, all sorts of great stuff because there is no one who is more fun to tail during NFL season than Brandon Anderson, the king of R-O-I.
3:04You can find him in the Action Network app at Wheaton Brando, W-H-E-A-T-O-N-B-R-A-N-D-O.
3:08This is truly a playground for bettors. Glad to have you guys with us.
3:12Presented by DraftKings. You know, Brandon's known for his escalators and his mind shaft bets.
3:17So, our intrepid producers, David Payne and Giver Gould have come up with his shoots and ladders.
3:22Shoots and ladders really has its ups and downs, but mostly it's lots of fun.
3:27Going up. I'll meet you at the bottom. We're going to give you ways to go all the way down to maximize
3:34your ROI and ways to go all the way up on the ROI.
3:38First off, Brandon Anderson, king of ROI. How are you feeling about the NFL season?
3:42It is here. We made it. We're one game in already.
3:46We got Wednesday night football. I thought I was dreading Wednesday night.
3:50Then we got an enjoyable little game at the end there.
3:53We got like half the guys injured and a fun start.
3:56By the time people listen to this one, we'll have an Australia game already in the books as well.
4:02We're off and running. It is good to be back in football.
4:06It is a little weird to be talking football with you, Matt.
4:10You and I have recorded thousands of hours of Buckets basketball together.
4:14We've done a couple of football ones, but I'm excited to get into it.
4:18And yeah, I normally like to tiptoe a little bit into week one, as you saw in the rundown.
4:24There's no tiptoeing. We are running out into the waters today.
4:27We're flying, baby. Full on jumping into the lake.
4:30But first, we have to let the people know that BetSync is back in the Action app and it's better than ever.
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4:42Connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear in action as soon as you place them.
4:49No manual tracking required. From there, you can follow all your action with live win probability, in-game alerts, and bet analysis throughout the game.
4:56Just open the Action app, head to my accounts, connect your sportsbook or prediction market, and you're ready to go.
5:02Download the Action app and connect with BetSync for free today.
5:06All right, let's get into some week one NFL best bets.
5:09I texted Brandon on Monday and was like, man, I don't know.
5:13Like, this is the guy usually I'm like rarer to go, but I'm like really nervous about this.
5:18Like, this is like, I don't know if I like I might just skip on the contest.
5:24And Brandon was like, shut up. You'll have bets by Thursday.
5:27And he's right. I have bets by Thursday. But we're here for Brandon's bets.
5:31And we're going to start with a shoot because we're going to hit the mine shaft, as I once coined it, here with Brandon.
5:39Brandon, start us off with your first best bet of the week.
5:43Yeah, I reordered. We're going to do the ladders version second this week because I had to start us out.
5:49Matt Moore, you and I together, our first official podcast with a mine shaft that you coined that term and with a Chiefs pick.
5:56So we're going all the way to the end of our week one, all the way to Monday night, Broncos Chiefs.
6:03And we're taking the under 43 and a half.
6:06And we're taking the mine shaft. We're taking the shoot all the way down.
6:10So obviously a lot of unknowns in this game.
6:13I think a lot of the unknowns are things that should suppress scoring some.
6:17So Patrick Holmes is back, but it's his first game back from the ACL injury.
6:22No preseason yet. We know how that goes with quarterbacks.
6:25You see a lot of rust, especially first half in games.
6:28And unfortunately, looks like left tackle Josh Simmons is not back yet.
6:32He is out with a back injury. It appears to be.
6:35So if he's out, undrafted rookie Khalil Benson is that left tackle, right tackle Jalen Moore.
6:40That is not the combo you love against Nick Benito.
6:43And you know, all that pressure is coming from Denver.
6:46Probably not a great matchup for Kenneth Walker debut.
6:49This has been an elite run defense for Denver the last couple of years.
6:54So a lot of concerns on that side. On the other side, we talked a lot in the preseason previews.
7:00Davis Webb, new play caller. What's that look like?
7:03And how do you want to work out the kinks?
7:06Prime time Monday night against a Spagnola defense. That is probably not the matchup you'd love to debut.
7:11So just a lot of reasons to think defenses may have the advantage here.
7:16The Broncos have won cover years, Matt, for the last five against the Chiefs.
7:20After 16 straight Kansas City wins before that. But more importantly for this pick, six straight matchups here at 41 points or below.
7:27Average 33.7 points a game. This is kind of what both of these teams want.
7:32And this for totals, this is the trend spot of the week.
7:36So let me give you the trends. Non-Thursday, prime time unders.
7:39You know we love that one. 60% since 2019.
7:42Monday night, division unders. Total between 41 and 48.
7:4566% since 2018. Week 1. You've already seen it.
7:47Evan Abrams has been tweeting out the unders trends for week 1.
7:51Unders specifically from 41 to 45.5 are 94, 56, and 1 to the under.
7:5563%. And this does look like maybe our one weather impact game of the week.
8:00Got some wind coming in. Windy under 61% the last five years.
8:04On top of all that, Patrick Mahomes at home as a favorite is an unders guy.
8:0940, 21 in one lifetime, including since 2022. 22 and 7 to the under 76%.
8:13This is what the Chiefs do. It's frustrating. I think probably for you, Matt, as a fan, it's not as fun to watch as the early Mahomes days.
8:22But they grind it out. They slow it down.
8:25This is what teams want. So both teams last year had 11 games at 43 or below.
8:30That hits our under. We're under 43.5. So that's the bet.
8:34We'll love a 44, but 41 to 44. Everything in that range is a key number.
8:38So we will grab it. Last year, Chiefs had nine games, over half of them.
8:4337 or below. The Broncos had seven games at 33 or below.
8:47Again, with the rivalry, five of the last six, 38 or below.
8:51Four of the last six, 33 or below. So here's our first mineshaft, our first shoot of the year.
8:56Under 37.5. Chiefs Broncos at plus 188. And under 33.5.
9:00All the way down at plus 330. Thanks. I hate it.
9:03Thanks for having me join the show. Just for you to drop this on me.
9:08Hate it. But this is absolutely a sharp angle.
9:10I'm terrified of the left tackle situation against Benito.
9:13I'm terrified. I'm absolutely horrified. I'm just like, Chiefs Reddit is literally talking about they should bench Mahomes for this game.
9:20I've seen that. Because it's going to get him absolutely killed.
9:23I have a weird one to add on to your trends.
9:27Okay. Since 2022, AFC West division games are 24 and 12 to the under.
9:31Just like that division. I've been looking at a lot of those because I'm looking at the week one division trends.
9:37Like everybody wants to play the division under or the division dog plays in week one.
9:42But it's like, it's really touchy depending on which division you're talking about.
9:46But these have really treaded towards the under. So all the way down, ugly scoring game in which the Chiefs probably lose.
9:53Yeah. I'm not going to be reachable for people on Monday night.
9:57I'm just not going to be somebody you want to talk to.
10:01Okay. So that's our first mineshaft of the season.
10:04We're underway with a tasty mineshaft at plus 188 and plus 330 at DK.
10:08Let's talk about going the other direction. And we'll talk about some ladders or as they're better called escalators.
10:14Give me your first one. Got the Dolphins shirt on today.
10:17We're coming out hot. Dolphins Raiders. I really want to start us with the grossest game on the slate.
10:23I had to do Chiefs first for your sake, but here we are.
10:27Everyone else is watching the fun games. I'm watching the ones with value.
10:31I think it's this one. Dolphins Raiders over 39 and a half.
10:35So we ranked a lot of things for the season that included defenses.
10:39These teams ranked 31st and 32nd in defense in my rankings.
10:42And the Dolphins were 32nd with a bullet. By far the least talent.
10:46They've got four rookies starting or playing a big role for them.
10:50The Raiders, it's Max Crosby and not a lot else.
10:53I think they're going to miss Patrick Graham calling the plays this year.
10:57Both secondaries are terrible. Both ripe for the picking.
11:00Now you still have to pick. You still have to have offenses to do the stuff.
11:05I think Clint Kubiak is going to be able to find some answers here.
11:09That offense looked pretty good in the preseason. They're ripping off a lot of big runs behind the offensive line.
11:15That's what Kubiak wants to do. Looks like Ashton Gentry is a go.
11:20I think Kirk Cousins can do some damage against the secondary, even without Brock Bowers.
11:24Miami offense, we'll see. I am a little bit intrigued with what will Bobby Sloak do with Malik Willis and the rushing attack.
11:31I don't love the passing here, but can they run the ball a little bit?
11:36A couple trends here. Week 1 through 5 overs when the total is this low from 36 to 41.
11:4257% to the over. So we know about the low totals early, but if the totals price this low, we're often going over.
11:49And importantly, in Vegas, we're inside. Indoor totals. You often want the over.
11:53The total is 32 to 41, and it's a game before December.
11:5792, 59, and 3 to the over. 61%. So we'll get to the escalator part of this in a second.
12:03But I'm going to hold my nose. I'm going to play Dolphins, Raiders over 39 and a half.
12:09Matt, can we get to 40 points in this game?
12:12This is truly disgusting. This is a truly disgusting play.
12:15But I'm very keyed in on offensive lines and running backs.
12:18That's just where my brain is at for a lot of my betting for the season.
12:23And one of the things I think is kind of interesting is neither of these offensive lines grayed out very well, especially by you.
12:31I was looking at all the lists and everything else.
12:34And hey, look, if the offensive lines can't hold up, I think that increases the odds of a turnover, which creates short field and more opportunities for scoring.
12:42I'm literally thinking about this from the perspective of what if this goes over because of sack fumble recoveries.
12:48Right. It's true. Sometimes the offense is so bad, it turns into offense for the other team.
12:54And so maybe we hit that way as well.
12:56I'm going to give you a little bit of reason to believe in the Dolphins offense.
13:01I had to wear the Dolphins shirt today. I'm probably not going to get a lot of chances to bring it out this year.
13:09I do think both teams can move the ball a little bit here.
13:13And I talked about the Raiders, but I'm going to go with Dolphins here.
13:17I think he is going to build this offense, Bobby Sloak, around Malik Willis' ability to run the ball.
13:23He was in San Francisco. When they drafted Trey Lance, I almost wore my Trey Lance Niners jersey for this one.
13:30He worked closely with Lance. Didn't go great because Lance was always hurt.
13:34But in three starts that Lance played the full game, 12 carries for 60 yards.
13:38This was a running quarterback and they used him accordingly.
13:41Malik Willis, his five starts since his debut start.
13:44Here's his rushing yards. 40, 43, 41, 73, and 60.
13:47Only seven attempts a game. So he's not even getting a ton of those.
13:52He's averaging 51 yards a game. That would be like 800 over a whole season.
13:56We bet this at six to one for most quarterback rushing yards on the every bet, every team thing.
14:02The Raiders last year faced three quarterbacks that I would consider kind of running quarterbacks.
14:07Marcus Mariota, Jackson Dart, and Jalen Hurts. That trio ran for 40, 48, and 39 yards.
14:12So average 42 yards. Here's what we need. Over 36 and a half Malik Willis rushing yards.
14:17That's the bet. I think that's the lowest line we're going to get on Willis this season.
14:22I think it's going to move up once they see how we're using him.
14:27He's cleared that his last five starts. And all three of those guys cleared that line against the Raiders last year, the running quarterbacks.
14:34And then the escalator. What if we get a long one?
14:37What if Malik Willis gets a couple long ones in here?
14:41So here we go. All at DraftKings. 50 yards plus 178.
14:4470 yards plus 574. And how about a 100-yard week one Malik Willis game at 24 to 1?
14:50We're going to need a long run for that.
14:53But we break like a 50 or 60 yarder off.
14:56We might get there. And since we're going to get some scoring in the game, we hope, how about a touchdown from Malik Willis?
15:03Our guy's Yul Galant. Rubber stamped this one for me.
15:06It's plus 340 at DraftKings. In his last four starts, Willis has four rushing touchdowns.
15:11We need some points in the game. Why not him?
15:14The Raiders allowed the third most quarterback rushing touchdowns last year, including three to those three running quarterbacks I mentioned.
15:20And then obviously, if you like the angles, they fit together.
15:24So if you want to go all the way, take the over in the game, take the Malik Willis rushing over, add in the touchdown.
15:31That's plus 850 at DraftKings. And we'll have a little fun.
15:35We'll be watching this one late afternoon. You really came into the first show of the year.
15:40With Malik Willis on an escalator. No one better.
15:43No one better, folks. Last time Malik Willis actually got significant snaps, Baltimore last season.
15:48Nine rushes for 60 yards and two touchdowns, as you mentioned.
15:51So, yeah, sounds... I mean, look, if you show up at the bar with your friends and they go, what have you got money on today?
15:59And you go, I'm on Malik Willis all the way up.
16:03All plays. And you win. Mmm. Mmm. That's a tasty experience.
16:06All right. Brandon, hit me with... You have... No one likes tight end escalators as much as you.
16:12And so, of course, we are also starting off with one of those.
16:16Give me your take on a couple of tight ends.
16:19Do you think you're going to have big games in one of our contests this weekend?
16:24Yeah, I'm looking at both tight ends in the box bangles.
16:27If I wasn't starting out with Malik Willis, the actual first prop I bet this year was Eric All, which I'm willing
16:34to bet 90% of our listeners could not even tell you what position is this young man?
16:39What team does he play for? Eric All has not played a lot of football so far.
16:44So we'll get to him in a bit. Box bangles.
16:48Two of my more intriguing teams this year. I'm team bucks, but I think the bangles are a little better than I usually do.
16:55It's an early test for both of these teams.
16:58A lot of offense here. So we'll see how the defenses hold up.
17:02I think bangles three and a half seems heavy.
17:05I think the bucks are alive. This is the highest total on the board.
17:09That means lots of scoring, lots of moving the ball.
17:12I think through the tight ends, these have been two of the worst teams against tight ends in recent years consistently.
17:19So the bangles gave up the most tight end fantasy points in the league last year and the year before they are
17:25starting at linebacker Demetrius Knight and Baird Carter. If you don't know those names, there's a reason they are not good linebackers.
17:32They're sophomores this year. They're not good at covering the tight end.
17:36The Buccaneers have been top seven. Most tight end points allowed three straight years.
17:40This is kind of a Todd Bowles specialty. A weak spot is just not a thing that they cover well.
17:46So we're going to start with Eric Hall. He's on the bangles.
17:50He caught my eye the last month during camp.
17:53He has become, to me, Cincinnati's one do-everything tight end.
17:56They've got guys like Mike Gusecki, who's a pass catcher, but not a blocker.
18:00They've got other blockers that don't catch. Eric Hall is the one guy that blocks and catches passes.
18:06He's the every down guy. And the bangles really only have two receivers they go to.
18:11Pretty good ones. But I think we'll see a lot of multiple tight ends.
18:15All is finally healthy again. He missed all of last season, his sophomore year.
18:20So his rookie year, he played nine games. He had two catches in seven of nine games.
18:25He had 20 yards in five of those seven.
18:28He had four catches in two of the three games.
18:31He played 30 snaps. That's not even that much.
18:34That's like half of the snaps. So two catches for our man, Eric Hall, A-L-L.
18:38That's the last name you're looking for here. Over one and a half catches, plus 145.
18:43The Bucs allowed two catches to a tight end 20 times last year.
18:47That's more than once per game, including 11 times the last eight games.
18:51They allowed four catches 11 times last season. So we're going double escalator here.
18:56We'll get to the other guy shortly. Eric Hall, two catches.
18:5920 yards is plus 230. Three catches, plus 475.
19:02Four catches, plus 1,200. 12 to one for four catches.
19:05You might get two, three catches on a drive if you're a tight end getting some of these dump offs.
19:11We love like a two minute drive here. We love something late in the game chasing.
19:16And we love to see Eric Hall on the field catching some passes.
19:20Finally healthy again. Matt, be honest. Did you know who Eric Hall was before I just talked about him for three minutes?
19:27No, I immediately thought of former lineman Matt Ault.
19:30That is the first name that came to my mind.
19:33I always it's all again, the goat, a chief's mineshaft down, Malik Willis escalator rushing.
19:38And then a guy who you literally said, here's how you spell his name.
19:42Classic. Phenomenal. It's tough in my notes. I have to keep writing out his whole name because if I just write the
19:49word all, it really confuses me when I scroll back later.
19:52It's not what I'm looking at. The tight end on the other side, you do know.
19:57It's Cade Otten. He has long been a favorite.
20:00I think Stucky had the big Cade Otten bet in the Super Bowl back a few years ago.
20:05Cade Otten's priced in already at three and a half receptions.
20:09That's his line. So we want a Bucs tight end because the Bengals allowed the most tight end catches in the league last year.
20:16116. That's almost seven per game. They allowed six tight end catches or more.
20:2112 of the 17 games. Now that's all tight ends on the other team.
20:25But for the Bucs last year, Cade Otten had all but two of the catches from tight ends.
20:31They got one dude on their team that catches passes at tight end.
20:35It's him. And he tends to be all or nothing.
20:38So I don't want medians here. Here are the numbers.
20:41Last two years, 30 games for Cade Otten. Half of them, three catches or less.
20:45So if it's not there, it's not there. If it is there, he's had eight games with six catches and more, including
20:52three with seven, two with eight, two with nine.
20:55So no, no medians here. We're getting greedy. Six catches for Otten.
20:59We're going straight there. Plus 650. Seven catches plus 1280.
21:02Eight catches is 23 to one at DraftKings. Out with Jamar Chase, T.
21:06Higgins, Agbuka, Godwin. Have fun, you guys. Give us some tight ends in Bengals and Buccaneers.
21:11Woo. Love it. Absolutely terrific stuff. Now, your last escalator play is going to be on a more familiar and big name.
21:18This one's pretty tasty given the name value plus where you're able to get the price at.
21:23Yeah, we're going Chris Olave and the Lions on this one.
21:26Like you said, much more familiar name. Olave, I think, has the fifth highest yards number on the props this week, but I still like it anyway.
21:35So Lions six and a half or seven dying to be teased.
21:39Feels like a trap to me. Brandon Staley's defense has been pretty good.
21:43We'll see about the Drew Petsing offense. And we'll see about Tyler Shuck's offense for the Saints.
21:48But you have to like that the Lions have no secondary.
21:51Let me read you the names of the guys starting for Detroit with now with everybody else hurt.
21:57DJ Reed. Okay, I like him enough. Rock Yassine.
22:00That's the two corners. Avante Maddox and Chuck Clark, who have been playing football for like 30 years apiece, are the starting safeties for this one.
22:08The Lions allowed the second most points at fantasy to receivers each of the last two years.
22:13They cannot stay healthy. They cannot stop the pass.
22:16And the Saints, of course, drafted Jordan Tyson to be the second guy.
22:20But Jordan Tyson is a walking injury and he's already not even walking.
22:24He's on IR with a hamstring injury. So it is the Olave show.
22:28The Lions last year faced what I would consider 11 true wide receiver ones.
22:32Those guys averaged just under six catches, 88 yards on 10 targets a game, hit the 100-yard mark five times.
22:38Olave last season was way better with Tyler Shuck than Spencer Rattler.
22:42His yards per route run went up from like 1.6 to 2.4, almost 50% better.
22:47He was top 10 as a receiver with Tyler Shuck in seven games to end the season with him.
22:53He averaged six and a half catches, 86 yards on 10 targets.
22:56Basically the exact same as those Detroit numbers we just read, including 100-yard game and three of the seven.
23:02119 twice. So let's keep it easy. Take the over 73 and a half.
23:07That's the line we're starting with. He has 70 yards or more, five of the last seven with Shuck.
23:13And then 100-yard game for Olave at plus 225, 120-yard game at plus 450.
23:17It's interesting given how much the Lions are kind of like, they're very hyped going into the season, right?
23:23But obviously like the secondary, not kind of part of that.
23:26How much do you feel like they're, okay, if you like Olave on this play, is an over another, like, how do
23:33you feel about the total in this game? Yeah, I think, I don't know that I look closely at the total here.
23:40Instinctly I would lean over. I would lean Saints team total over maybe.
23:44I don't know if I feel great about the untested Petsing offense and I like this daily defense.
23:49If I like the Saints, it's the defense I feel better about.
23:53So I think I would lean maybe a Saints over.
23:56But I do think this is also, isn't it like 49 and a half?
24:01And this is one of the higher totals on the board.
24:04So what I like about the Olave bet is maybe the Saints are just good and actually steal this game and he's got to be involved then.
24:12Or maybe they just kind of get blown out or they're not in control of the game and they probably have to pass a lot.
24:20So I think either way, I feel pretty good about the Olave part of it all.
24:25That's a really sharp ankle, especially with the escalators going to plus 450.
24:29Okay, before we get to more bets from Brandon, let's toss it on over to Jill Gallant with a word from our sponsor.
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28:13All right, back here with Brandon Anderson in the playground.
28:16Let's get into the sandbox a little bit and mix it up.
28:20We'll keep it simple. When I was in the sandbox as a kid, I got no respect.
28:25I like it. It's playful. Keep it simple, smarty pants.
28:28Your sandboxes are the best. That's why I want you involved.
28:32Brandon, any simple size or totals or props that we want to hit for this week?
28:37What are the other things that you're really looking for for your best bets card?
28:41Yeah, so the first bet I put in for the new season came Labor Day morning at about 7 a.m.
28:47We got the announcement that Tua Tagovailoa was in, and I grabbed the minus three immediately.
28:52It's three and a half right now. Give me the Steelers, minus three and a half against the Falcons.
28:58And look, I was going to like this either way.
29:01Whatever quarterback Atlanta found to throw out there, I had this at minus six and a half for Pittsburgh.
29:07So the cap for Pittsburgh is pretty easy. Raheem Palmer, our buddy, was talking to us about this.
29:13Does the opponent have a pass rush? If they do, not great for Aaron Rodgers because the man is terrified to take a hit.
29:20Guess what? Atlanta doesn't. Jalon Walker and James Pierce were last year's first round picks for the team, and they worked last year.
29:27Jalon Walker is on IR. James Pierce is suspended for half the season.
29:31So Atlanta's defense can't get after Rodgers. He should be comfortable.
29:35We'll see about that part with McCarthy. But I do think Pittsburgh can run the ball.
29:40They have a pretty good run blocking line. Zach Frazier at center and a lot of the guys up front.
29:46Atlanta's run defense has not been great. So I think it sets up well for whatever version of Rodgers offense we're going to get.
29:53And on the other side, I don't like the matchup for Atlanta there either.
29:58They want to run the ball. But Pittsburgh always has that proven run defense.
30:02Cam Hayward, everything up the middle. They'll be fine there.
30:05And then if it's Tua, if it's apparently now rumors of possible Cooper Rush or undrafted rookie Jack Strand, if Tua's not ready.
30:12Either way, have fun against T.G. Awad and all the pass rush.
30:16I think this is a really good defense this year.
30:19They get Patrick Graham to call the plays. I think it's a top five potential.
30:24Tua competed against himself for this job and still nearly lost it.
30:28Like, you know how bad you have to be for that?
30:31And also, do you know, Matt, the last game that Tua Tegavailoa played a real football game?
30:36It was in Pittsburgh last December in the regular season.
30:39And that game was 28 to 3 in the fourth quarter until garbage time.
30:44And guess what? He's never taken another regular season snap since then.
30:47Certainly not for Miami. And I'm not sure how many more he's going to get for Atlanta either.
30:53So give me Steelers at three and a half.
30:56And then next week in New England, after Pittsburgh blows out the Falcons, this week, it might be the ultimate sell.
31:02So don't think I'm high on Pittsburgh. I just like this matchup against Atlanta a lot.
31:07Okay. Where did you have the Falcons offensive line?
31:10Fringe top 10. Okay. So, but you just think that the defense is going to be that much, is going to be
31:17that much of a, like, the Steelers. I just, I trust Pittsburgh's run defense.
31:21It's pretty much good year after year. And they've got the guys and the talent there.
31:26So even without knowing the scheme, that should be good.
31:29I don't think Atlanta can't run at all. I think Pittsburgh can just at least limit it enough and force it to be okay.
31:37We're going to move the ball some on our side.
31:40Can you pass or do anything? And I, I want to bet against two.
31:44I don't know how many chances we're going to get.
31:47Sure. No, I was more asked about the offensive line for in favor of, you know, keeping that poor guy on his feet so that he's not sure.
31:56You know, it's a much better run blocking line than pass blocking line for Atlanta.
32:01Okay. You have, so I want to talk about this.
32:04You have a teaser already. And we were kind of talking about this with our buddy Raheem Palmer.
32:09And I subscribe to the school of thought that is look week one, week two.
32:14The whole thing is that these lines are shaped by preseason sentiment that are often like, it's like this team should be good.
32:21And then you get there and it's like, oh, Hey, they're not.
32:25This team should be awful. Look at that. This team's actually not that bad, at least for a while.
32:31Remember the saints two years ago when they put up like 40 and back to back weeks.
32:36Right. So like the lines are shaped in this direction.
32:39And so with a teaser, I'm always kind of looking for, okay, where are the lines accurate?
32:44And therefore if I apply six points, I know that I'm, I'm landing outside of where it should be.
32:50And we're too early for the lines to be certain there.
32:54You go the other direction though, on this, you're not as scared, at least not this year, at least not this week,
33:01because you already have a teaser lined up. I do.
33:04And I like to give a teaser early in the season.
33:07If I see a good spot, because it's a good chance to talk about teaser strategy.
33:12So let me spell it out for you. It's a six, six point teaser.
33:16I'm going to take Jacksonville minus eight and a half against the Browns.
33:20So we tease that one down six. So we get it to two and a half under a field goal.
33:27We get to skip past the seven, the six, the three teasers are about skipping key numbers.
33:32They're not about crossing zero. They're not about just getting it to a lower number.
33:37You feel good about you got to get past those expensive numbers.
33:40And then on the other side, gave me the New York jets plus one and a half at the Titans.
33:46Here's why we like that one. You want big home favorites to get them under a touchdown, or you want short road dogs plus one and a half.
33:55We get to plus seven and a half. Again, we cross the three, the six and the seven.
34:01We cross those three most important key numbers on the way up.
34:04That is the classic long teaser. So why do I like the picks?
34:09Lots of trends on the Browns. Like the Browns are the trendiest spot of week one.
34:13And I don't love that here, but I don't have to pick the Browns eight and a half.
34:19I'm just taking Jacksonville to win by at least three.
34:22It's a classic spot to back the unbackable team.
34:25But do I trust Jacksonville to just win by a field goal?
34:29Basically to win the game. Yes. Liam Cohen, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Campanelli.
34:32And more importantly, perhaps, do I trust Deshaun Watson to take a big fat road loss against a team that I think
34:39is at least quality and maybe good? Yes. And again, I don't know how many chances I'm going to get to bet against Deshaun Watson.
34:47So I'm going to bet against him now and again later in the pod as a little spoiler alert.
34:53So Jacksonville minus two and a half. And then those same trends that like the Browns, they like the Jets also.
34:59And I like the spot there for them. You want week one road dogs.
35:04You want short road dogs, especially if they miss the playoffs.
35:07That's why it fits both of those teams. And here are the Titans.
35:11One and a half point favorites. Why? What have the Titans done to be deserving favorites in a real live football game?
35:18I have the Jets better on offense and on defense and on special teams.
35:22Not by much, by a couple spots in the rankings.
35:25And I'm not saying good, just better. You don't have to be good.
35:30You should be better than the Titans. I think they're better than the Titans.
35:34I think both defenses stopped the run. Some. They were both bottom three against the pass.
35:39So who's going to pass? Well, give me the better offensive line.
35:43That's the Jets for sure. And give me the better quarterback.
35:46And you might not love Geno Smith, but he's not Cam Ward.
35:50I'll tell you that much. Cam Ward is not the better quarterback right now here.
35:54So I actually think the Jets win. But here, it's plus seven and a half.
35:59The total is 38 and a half. We have to only just not lose by two scores in a game that we
36:06might get 20 or 30 points total on. That's the beauty of the teaser is really getting to buy some valuable points for us.
36:13So it's a pick and it's a lesson. Then teaser Jets plus seven and a half and Jags minus two and a half.
36:20Okay. A couple of things on this. I looked up Wong teasers since 2021.
36:25That's named after Stanford Wong, which is not his real name.
36:28It's a pen name. I looked up home favorites of more than six.
36:32Technically, you should go to seven. You should go to seven.
36:36I get that. Seven and a half. I get it.
36:39I did favorites of more than six. So at least you're not crossing zero.
36:43And then road dogs of less than three, but dogs.
36:46Since 2022, those teams are 11 and five. The teasers.
36:49I'm sorry. Teaser record on those is 11 and five.
36:52That's the teaser version. So the, the home favorite of six, seven, eight, getting down under the field goal or the road
36:59dog of one or two getting up over the seven.
37:02Those teams are covering at what rate? At 69%.
37:05Okay. So we're a little bit short of what we need to for the 70% for the, for the juice.
37:11But I also think that these two are exceptionally good plays.
37:15So I think it's pretty smart here. I do think it's like something to keep in mind as you kind of say that.
37:22Well, so I want to ask you this because you tend to be somebody who is, you are firm and when in
37:29moments where you disagree with both convention and the market.
37:32So look, there's two and a half popping on jets, which again, why?
37:36Why? But if this flipped, if, if this got bet, if late, if sharp money comes in late and moves this and
37:43this flips to jets minus one and a half.
37:45Yeah. I, I, both of the, like this, this is a pick to make right now.
37:50This is not a pick to wait around on both directions because it would not surprise me at all to see Jacksonville
37:57get to nine or nine and a half specifically to stop this teaser from happening.
38:02That is why that line will move because at nine, now you tease it to three and now you push on the field goal.
38:09Or lose your teaser outright that way. I don't want that.
38:13I want the field goal. And with the jets, certainly if it crosses to one and a half, I know we talk
38:20about crossing the zero as you're losing a point.
38:22I don't really think so. Like, I think you're losing like two, almost three points of value there.
38:28Like I, that is half of the value of the teaser.
38:31I'm not afraid of this ending in a tie, maybe zero, zero.
38:35Cause the teams are that bad. Like maybe we get that in week one, but I don't want to lose the value of what I'm paying for here.
38:44So yeah, if it gets the jets plus two and a half, great.
38:48We'll get it to plus eight and a half.
38:51Instead. It can be like a slight key number too.
38:54If it goes the other way, you've lost the value then.
38:57And that's what can happen on some of these.
39:00So yeah, I think that's the lesson with the teaser.
39:03Great call on losing multiple points because honestly, like you don't see pick them anymore.
39:08It's only one and a half. Right. So if it's only one and a half, like you're losing the three points in
39:14the middle of where it actually should be probably adjusted to, but they just don't give you that anymore.
39:20Right. And that's half the teaser value. Yeah, exactly.
39:23Okay. So those are your, that's your teaser. Jags minus eight and a half down to two and a half jets plus
39:30one and a half up to seven and a half or better, but do not cross the zero.
39:36Long shots. No one likes a good long shot as much as you do.
39:40Let's talk about some long shots, Brandon. So you're telling me there's a chance.
39:44All right. So both of these long shots this week, I've got a standard play and then the long shot play with it.
39:51So let's start out in Texans bills. This is a noon game right out of the gates.
39:57We got seven other games at once when this will feel like, I don't know, Texans bills could be an AFC championship game.
40:04Like that's a really good matchup. I'm going to start with the under, under 44 and a half, probably not a huge
40:11surprise to be down on the bills. I had them 18th in my power rankings.
40:15I bet the bills to miss the playoffs. So it's a bet against Buffalo.
40:20Everything outside of Josh Allen. The defense is under talented.
40:23I don't believe in the coaching or the special teams.
40:26Texans run defense has been awesome. The last couple of years, you just cannot run on this team.
40:31And that's what Buffalo wants to do. They're a power run team with Joe Brady.
40:36And I don't think they'll be able to do that here.
40:39Josh Allen has not been good against Houston. Last two years, Allen's played 37 games.
40:44His dropbacks access rate in two games against Houston in that stretch, 35th and 36th best out of his 37 games.
40:51Josh Allen lost to Davis Mills with the Texans last year.
40:54That's how bad this went. Houston just wins with man coverage and the bills don't have the guys.
41:00I don't know that DJ Moore fixes that magically either.
41:03I think you can fit, but I don't think it solves that problem.
41:07So I don't love the matchup for the bills offense.
41:10I'm skeptical about the bills defense and Jim Leonard, but it's the Texans.
41:14Like the Texans are going to suddenly put up a big number here.
41:18You have this brand new makeshift offensive line. We don't really know even who's playing where yet.
41:23Probably you're going to get a lot of pressure.
41:26Jim Leonard comes over from Denver. So we saw Houston play Denver last year.
41:30It didn't go great for the team there. Their offense.
41:33I just don't see putting up a huge number here.
41:37This game just screams under to me like very think Sunday more think Saturday early AFC playoff like 1710 late KG playoff atmosphere.
41:44That's what this feels like again week one unders from 41 to 45 and a half where this one is is 94
41:5156 and one 64 percent of the unders Josh Allen road unders for his career 60 percent and CJ Stroud home unders 17 and six 74 percent.
41:59This is what these teams do. Buffalo on the road conservative Houston at home.
42:03D'Amico Ryan's conservative. Keep it low scoring. Keep it close.
42:06That's what we're going to get under 44 and a half.
42:10I love that we get this above all those key numbers 41 42 3 and 4 all key numbers.
42:16So that's the under then I'll give you the long shot in a second.
42:20How do you feel about the under Matt? Can you give me an analysis of what you think about the explosive play
42:27potential for Josh Allen versus that Texans defense? I mean, I think Houston's defense is effectively built to try to take away
42:34the explosives as much as they can. So look, I think they'll probably get a couple of them because James Cook is
42:41good and the Bills line is good. But the Bills don't really have top receivers to go beat you downfield anyway.
42:47And it's certainly against a top defense like this.
42:50So I think you can live with a couple rushing explosives.
42:53Maybe Josh Allen sneaks out, you know, not not a sneak, but like a scramble or something.
42:58They're going to get those. The Bills are good.
43:01But I think passing explosives are much more valuable than rushing.
43:05And I don't see them getting a lot of that.
43:08It does feel like if the Bills are going to put together dominant drives, it's going to be matriculation and not.
43:14Yeah. And now we chewed up 10 minutes of a quarter and got a touchdown out of it.
43:20But hey, a quarter is gone. So we can handle that too.
43:24All right. I like it. Give me the side.
43:26Yeah. So that's the under. But at the end of the day, I just like the Texans a lot better here too, which again, not surprising.
43:34I had much, much higher on them in the season.
43:38I think the wrong team is favored here. I make this Texans minus four actually.
43:42So a lot of times when we look at a line like this, one and a half, and we've seen this kind of flip during the week too.
43:51It's been Houston one and a half at times.
43:54You typically as a batter, it's easy to see that line and be like, okay, so we're going to get a close game.
44:01Who wins by field goal? Last one with the ball.
44:04Close lines don't necessarily mean close games. If you like the home underdog in a short line like this one, here's some stat for you.
44:12Since 2015, home underdogs under three have won outright 138 times.
44:15You should not just bet that to happen, but here's what you should bet.
44:19Out of those 138 times that they won, 84 of them, they won by seven points or more.
44:2560% of the time when they won as a home dog, they won by at least a touchdown.
44:31Houston last year, 13 wins eight times. They won by at least a touchdown.
44:35So I'm going to skip the one and a half on Houston and I'm going for the kill.
44:41If we're going to be right, let's be really right.
44:44So give me the alt line Texans minus six and a half at plus 255.
44:48And if you like it, you can play that with the under because you're going to get a little anti correlation in there.
44:55And you play the under with the minus six and a half at plus 42.
45:00Okay. Bowl play basically for a nightmare start for the Buffalo Bills.
45:04That would be the Texan. The Texans hype machine would be out of control going into week two if they beat this team by more than six points.
45:13That's going to be something to watch out for as well.
45:16You also have a play, a long shot play on your favorite team.
45:20Yeah. Let's drink some purple Kool-Aid. Give me the Vikings minus one and a half against the Packers.
45:26And we'll take an escalator alt on them as well.
45:29Look, this is one of my favorite division bets at plus 510.
45:32This is the healthiest team in the division to start the year.
45:36And part of it is a bet against the Packers.
45:39I picked them last in the division. I bet that also outside of Jordan Love, Micah Parsons, Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft,
45:46I think are the three most important Packers. Two of those guys are missing.
45:50And one of them, Tucker Kraft, looks like he'll play, but not quite be himself yet.
45:55So how can you invest in a team that is questionable with their three most important guys?
46:01You can't have an entire team built out of Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love.
46:05And I think the rest of the team in Green Bay is really already in the market right now.
46:11Again, I make this like four or five for the Vikings.
46:14Here you have a bottom five offensive line for the Packers against Flores and all that pressure, all that aggression.
46:20That's usually never going to be a good formula.
46:23You have a run heavy offense for Matt LaFleur.
46:26Guess what? You have no running backs. Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and Caleb Johnson.
46:30That's the running backs on this roster. They have combined for 480 yards in their career together.
46:36That is the rushing attack. And that's what they're leaning on.
46:39And Jordan Love arguably has had his toughest opponent as the Vikings and Brian Flores outside of a few games against the
46:46Eagles have not gone well, but it's not been great for Love against this opponent.
46:51So Packers defense on the other side of the matchup.
46:54I don't love them without Parsons either. We know with these star defenders, the on-off splits are always bad.
47:00Packers run defense really dropped off last year after losing Campanelli, the run stopping coach Vikings.
47:05I think are going to run the ball this year.
47:08Frank Smith has come in and helped redefine the rushing attack.
47:11The offensive line is healthy. I honestly, and look, Matt, you know, I am not the blind back my team.
47:17I'm the opposite. If anything, I think this is a dream spot for the Vikings.
47:22You get to start week one healthy against a hurting division rival that I think is not ready here.
47:28Week one division games with a playoff team and a non-playoff team.
47:32You want the non-playoff team 42, 18 and a one against the spread 70%.
47:36So Vikings minus one and a half, get that division ticket plus five, 10.
47:40But much as this is a rivalry, seven of the last nine games between these teams have been decided by 13 or more points.
47:48We just don't get a lot of close games here.
47:51Whoever wins really wins. So that's the line we're going to take.
47:55Vikings minus 12 and a half, go get the big win in week one at plus 440 to start the season.
48:01Oh, that trend, that trend. That's such a, such a powerful trend there.
48:05Playoff team versus non-playoff team. Vikings to me, it feels like the process through the off season has been, oh, the Packers will be good.
48:13And then everyone looked at the Packers and were like, oh no.
48:17Oh no. Except for a few people that have like held out like our former colleague, Anthony Dibundo over at the ringer
48:23that are, that's holding the line on the Packers.
48:26And so like everything shifted to the Lions and then everything shifted to the Lions and everybody's like, well, I mean, okay, now they're over, they're overpriced.
48:35Okay. So it's not them. And then everybody looked at the bears and some people went again, like everybody kind of jumps
48:41off the boat and makes a little Island, but like the bears are, well, we can't do the bears.
48:47It's regression Island. Like everyone's expecting regression on the bears.
48:50And so if you've eliminated the Lions because they're overpriced and overhyped and the Packers because their roster doesn't look good and the bears because of regression.
48:59And then everyone's like, Hey, look at the Vikings.
49:02This is going to be a fascinating game. And the reactions from it are going to be pretty stark, no matter how
49:08this one, like I want no part of this game.
49:11And I applaud you for going in on the 12 and a half at plus 440 to be able to get on the all play.
49:19Interesting angle. From Brandon. And Hey, if it doesn't come through for you, you get to be mad at the Vikings, which
49:26is win, win, win, win, win for you. All right.
49:29It's time for four square. No one even plays four square anymore.
49:33Here's what we're going to do. We're going to talk contests because we are also in the same contest that you've heard
49:40about on the favorites of the draft King sports book.
49:43It's got, they've got a pool. We've been doing it for years.
49:47Actually, it's just a $50 buy-in, but it's a pool over on draft Kings five picks a week.
49:52Brandon has been my advisor on these picks and we have cashed each of the last three seasons.
49:58So we've done very well in this contest. I felt good about it.
50:02It's a, if nothing else, it results in really hilarious text threads between me and Brandon.
50:07And we'll now bring those to the show. But what we're going to do actually now is I'm going to give you
50:14a bunch of, because me being the square human alive, I'm going to give you a bunch of sides I like for this week.
50:21And we'll just go ahead and say what they are, which is square.
50:25And you're going to pick four of them. And then we're going to parlay those this week.
50:30And that's going to be an official play. You can find it in the action network app.
50:36Brandon's going to log it and we'll make sure it's on our parlay page as well.
50:41That's going to be our four square parlay. And then I will take four of Brandon's selections and we will play it with one more.
50:48And I will take those into advice for my contest picks.
50:52So Brandon, here are the ones that I really am looking at this week.
50:56Broncos plus two and a half. Eagles minus four and a half.
51:00Ravens minus three and a half. Good team versus not good team.
51:03Bears minus two and a half. Buccaneers. There's plus fours, but we'll say three and a half.
51:09And Chargers minus eight. That's six of those. Which four do you want for four square parlay?
51:14Oh boy. All right. Well, let's start out with the Bears because I think we're getting a little lucky with the two and a half here.
51:22We get that below the three. I will take Ben Johnson against the Panthers who are my top win total play of the year on the under.
51:30So we'll take them. I'll take the Eagles here.
51:33I don't love the four and I don't mind the four and a half.
51:38I have them actually at over seven. The commanders are lighting up all of my week one trends.
51:43So I don't love that part of it. Again, division teams, road underdogs, no playoff playoffs, like all the things that we just liked about Minnesota.
51:51We dislike about this pick, but I think there's value at the number four and a half.
51:57Give me the Bucs. We talked about why I think the Buccaneers will be very good, why I think they're alive on that one.
52:04And I need one more of that. I crossed off Ravens Colts first of any game this week, Matt.
52:10I don't know anything about either one of those teams right now.
52:14We don't know if their quarterbacks are healthy. We don't know what schemes are coming out.
52:19I cannot make a pick in that one. And if I did, it'd have to be Colts for me.
52:24I have the, I'm high on Baltimore, but I have that line at like minus one.
52:29So I can't do it with the Ravens. I think you want me to pick the Broncos because you just love to
52:36be a masochist and pick against your own team.
52:39And that way either, either the Broncos cover or at least your team wins.
52:43And I can't do the Chargers. I can't pick a minus eight on the Chargers.
52:48We don't know what that's going to be like.
52:51So give me my choices. Give me the Broncos two and a half.
52:55And that will be our four square play. All right.
52:58That's your four square parlay presented by DraftKings. Remember, you're going to want to tail these over at DraftKings because all customers
53:05get a profit boost every game day in the month of September.
53:09So don't forget to download the DraftKings sports app and use promo code ActionNetwork when you sign up.
53:14DraftKings, the crown is yours. Once again, our four square parlay is going to be Broncos plus two and a half, Eagles
53:21minus four and a half, Bears minus two and a half, and Buccaneers plus four.
53:26Uh, real quickly, my contest is going to be, I am taking Chicago.
53:30I am taking Philly. I am taking Denver. I am going to take the Ravens just because I love the Colts this year.
53:37That's like my fun team that no one believes in.
53:40And I do because I'm over indexed on offensive line and running back right now and 11 personnel.
53:45But the Ravens are just like, they're, they're, they're just very scary.
53:49They're just like the rate. I just look at this and I'm just like, come on, like this, there's this thing I
53:56do whenever we're talking lines where I'm like, okay, if we give a four and a half point flip for home field, Brandon hates it.
54:04And we do that. What is this lined up with?
54:07And I'm like, the Colts can't be favored at home versus the Ravens.
54:11That's gotta be, it's gotta be like pick them or Ravens minus one and a half.
54:16Like pick them probably. So like, I just, I know I, I refuse.
54:20So I will go ahead. Now I will add the Ravens in here, uh, for that play.
54:25And then I'm gonna take the jets would you who you like as well.
54:30That's my other contest play. Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, Denver, and the jets are my contest plays.
54:34But more importantly, Brandon, tell me yours. I'm going to give you a picture.
54:39You've heard already. So give me the Houston Texans plus one and a half.
54:43Give me the Vikings minus one and a half.
54:46And give me the Steelers minus three and a half.
54:49You heard the case for all of those barriers minus two and a half.
54:53Again, I think we're getting a gift under the three there.
54:57I would not play that one at three or more as a standalone pick.
55:01And then I'll take the Buccaneers plus three and a half.
55:05I look, they have had in the last year, they had six losses by under a touchdown.
55:1011 of the last 14 Tampa losses have been by under a touchdown.
55:14So six points or less. I don't know if Tampa will win that game.
55:18I'm, I'm planting my flag on the Buccaneers this year, but you can, you can lose by three and still cover there as well.
55:26So Vikings, Texans, Steelers, Bears, and the box are my picks for this week.
55:30All right. We'll keep you updated on how we do in the contest next weekend going forward.
55:35Now it's time for Brandon's sharpest angles that he gives out every week, which is he only goes ahead and peers into the future.
55:43And he gives you a look ahead to week two.
55:46I guess we would call this maybe the kaleidoscope if we're hanging out in the playground.
55:51Let's look ahead. Just give it a shot. How about next week?
55:55I got my mindset on you. I got my mindset on you.
55:58Tell me what you're finding when you look through the glass and the magnifying glass for week two, Brandon.
56:04Yeah, let's, uh, let's end with the Bucs where we were just at.
56:08Give me a Bucs minus six home against the Browns next week.
56:12The goal of the look ahead, of course, is to get ahead of the lines.
56:17We're trying to grab something now. We probably won't be able to get later after the weekend games.
56:22Usually that means we're going to take a favorite here because the favorite line probably rises depending on what happens.
56:28Maybe you missed the key number in this case, seven points.
56:32So this weekend, what's supposed to happen? The Browns are supposed to get smashed by the Jaguars in Florida.
56:38And Deshaun Watson looks terrible. And everyone remembers, what are we doing here?
56:42What's happening? The Bucs, we just talked about the Cincinnati of the Todd Bowles, usually pretty good in September.
56:48The Bengals usually not. If the Browns get blown out or if the Bucs pull the upset or both, I think this
56:54easily hits seven and we lose the key number there.
56:58For the matchup, the Browns can't pass because they don't have a quarterback.
57:02They can run a little bit, but not against Tampa, not against Vita Vea.
57:06That's not the way to beat the team. Worst offensive line in the league against that aggressive Todd Bowles defense.
57:12It's back-to-back weeks in Florida for the Browns. They go in Jacksonville, in Miami.
57:16So maybe you get tired out by the end of the game as well.
57:21All the September humidity and all that sort of stuff.
57:24I have this line at Bucs minus 11 in Tampa.
57:27This line that we're getting is closer to what I'd make it in Cleveland.
57:31You talk about your flip. I flipped for you, Matt.
57:34That's what I would make it there. This is in Tampa.
57:38Give me the Bucs minus six below the key number.
57:41I think by next weekend, I think by Sunday night.
57:44I think we're at seven or beyond. And next week on all the other podcasts, they're going to be trying to talk themselves into Cleveland.
57:52We get to take the Bucs. The team we all know is way better.
57:56Minus six. And then we'll just sit on it next week.
58:00Okay. All right. Get ahead with Baker and the Bucs.
58:03That'll do it here on the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week 1 episode of Brandon's Playground presented by DraftKings.
58:09Don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app and follow Brandon at Wheaton Brando.
58:14W-H-E-A-T-O-N-B-R-A-N-D-O. For more picks, he might be adding in the app before Sunday.
58:18If you want instant notifications when action experts track their bets, just go to actionnetwork.com slash pro and use promo code pod20
58:25for $20 off a year of Action Pro. Thanks for listening.
58:28Enjoy the slate. And good luck with all your bets this weekend.
58:32And we'll see you back in the playground next week on the Action Network podcast.
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