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NFL Week 2 Betting Preview

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 48 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 16, 2026
Published
Wed, September 16, 2026
30
Player insights
29
Players mentioned
Topics
Zay FlowersA.J. BrownAlec PierceBaker MayfieldBijan RobinsonBrock BowersCaleb WilliamsCarson WentzD.J. MooreDalton KincaidDaniel JonesDavid MontgomeryDeshaun WatsonDrake Maye
Player analysis

Player insights

30

A.J. Brown

NegativeInjury66:27

The Patriots offense will be without A.J. Brown for the upcoming game.

Insight page

Alec Pierce

NegativeInjury51:54

Alec Pierce is not fully healthy and is not yet a full participant in the offense, leaving the team heavily reliant on Keenan Allen for receiving production.

Insight page

Baker Mayfield

PositiveProjection54:24

Baker Mayfield's offense looked very good outside of turnovers in the previous week, with the team effectively utilizing play action and motion under their new offensive coordinator.

Insight page

Bijan Robinson

NegativeUsage62:05

In the previous game, the Falcons' offense was extremely limited, with Cooper Rush primarily handing the ball off to Bijan Robinson and failing to generate anything downfield.

Insight page

Brock Bowers

NegativeInjury73:56

Bowers is currently day-to-day with an injury, and his potential return for the Raiders in Week 2 would be a significant boost for the team.

Insight page

Caleb Williams

NegativeMatchup23:18

The source notes that while Caleb Williams has struggled against Brian Flores' blitz-heavy schemes in the past, he showed improvement in his second year at avoiding sacks and handling the blitz. He is expected to hit some explosive plays against the Vikings.

Insight page

Carson Wentz

NegativeProjection21:58

The source compares Wentz to Kyler Murray, noting that Wentz ranks 19th in EPA per play since the start of last year, which is statistically better than Murray. Wentz is familiar with the system, though his performance remains difficult to gauge.

Insight page

D.J. Moore

PositiveRole15:10

The source identifies DJ Moore as the Bills' bonafide deep threat, noting that the investment in him appears to be paying off given the team's high explosive play rate.

Insight page

Dalton Kincaid

PositiveUsage17:58

Doug Kazarian highlights Kincaid as a key target in the Bills' new offense, noting he was on the field for 75% of snaps and functions as the team's WR2 when they utilize 13 personnel (40% usage). He is expected to see a high volume of looks in a potential shootout.

Insight page

Daniel Jones

NegativeRole50:33

Daniel Jones is struggling with an Achilles injury that limits his mobility, which is critical for the offense Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka want to run. He is currently playing with 'cement shoes' and lacks the push-off ability for deep balls, resulting in a drop to 5.9 air yards per attempt compared to 8.0 last year.

Insight page

David Montgomery

PositiveDepth Chart55:31

David Montgomery has been added to the Texans' offense, which showed improvement in the offensive line and overall performance last week.

Insight page

Deshaun Watson

NegativeBust52:42

Deshaun Watson is viewed as a non-functional quarterback who had the worst EPA per play last year; the source notes he is only starting due to an edict from upstairs and may be benched if he fails to perform this week.

Insight page

Drake Maye

PositiveUsage70:35

Drake Maye is a strong candidate for rushing yards overs because he is likely to tuck the ball and run when pressured, a trend supported by his 45 rushing yards against Pittsburgh last year.

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Drew Lock

PositiveProjection94:55

The source believes Drew Locke will be fine as a starter, noting he was on point in the second half of his previous appearance and will benefit from a full week of practice.

Insight page

Geno Smith

PositiveUsage72:20

The source notes that if the Jets offensive line provides adequate time, Geno Smith is capable of high-level production, as demonstrated in his previous performance.

Insight page

Jared Goff

NegativeProjection12:42

Doug Kazarian expresses skepticism regarding Jared Goff, stating he has never been a big fan of the quarterback and believes the Lions' offense is limited.

Insight page

Jayden Daniels

PositiveBreakout67:30

Jayden Daniels played well in his debut, demonstrating an ability to move the ball, buy time in the pocket, and effectively use his legs when necessary.

Insight page

Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection56:59

Joe Burrow has been highly effective as an underdog throughout his career, boasting a 17-6 record against the spread when favored by 2.5 points or more. His ceiling remains MVP-caliber, and the Bengals' offensive line appears to be the best of the Burrow era, allowing only seven pressures on 37 dropbacks against Tampa Bay.

Insight page

Jonathan Taylor

PositiveUsage52:03

Due to the team's offensive limitations, including Daniel Jones's injury and Alec Pierce's health status, the offense is expected to feature a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor.

Insight page

Jordan Love

PositiveProjection73:41

Despite a loss, Jordan Love performed well in Week 1, hitting explosive plays before the game unraveled due to penalties and turnovers; however, he is 0-8 against the spread on the road when laying over a field goal.

Insight page

Josh Allen

PositiveUsage0:15

The source notes the Bills have 'unleashed' Allen with a strong offensive line, leading to a 9.6 yards per first down average and the highest explosive play rate in the league last week; he remains an MVP-caliber player whose tendencies are to hit the open man.

Insight page

Justin Herbert

NegativeProjection75:02

Herbert played poorly in Week 1, and the source expresses doubt about an immediate bounce-back performance given the Chargers' lack of speed and interior offensive line struggles.

Insight page

Kirk Cousins

NegativeProjection76:06

Cousins was underwhelming in his performance, throwing bad interceptions and struggling to throw downfield, which may lead to a lower-scoring, variance-heavy game for the Raiders.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

NegativeRole22:18

The source suggests the Cardinals' offense looked uncomfortable with Murray in the shotgun, noting that the team's shift toward under-center and play-action looks (which Wentz is more accustomed to) may be more effective than the current Murray-led approach.

Insight page

Ladd McConkey

NegativeInjury74:22

McConkey is dealing with a rib injury and is not practicing, making his status for Week 2 uncertain. His absence is critical, as the Chargers' offense significantly drops in efficiency (6.3 to 4.2 yards per play) and Herbert's EPA per pass plummets without him.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection50:01

Lamar Jackson is described as a 'cash cow' in the first half and against NFC teams, as opposing defenses often struggle to account for his speed, elusiveness, and ability to get outside the pocket.

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Rashod Bateman

NegativeRole74:03

With Zay Flowers and Jacoby Lane out, Rashod Bateman is elevated to the role of the Ravens' number one receiver.

Insight page

Sam Darnold

NegativeDepth Chart94:51

Sam Darnold is confirmed out for the upcoming game, with Drew Locke expected to start in his place.

Insight page

Zay Flowers

NegativeInjury48:37

Zay Flowers did not practice due to a hamstring injury, and the source suggests he should not be played in this game as hamstring issues are not something to mess with.

Insight page
NegativeInjury73:58

Zay Flowers is not expected to play, which significantly reduces the explosiveness of the Ravens' offense. Without him and the injured Jacoby Lane, the offense becomes much easier to defend.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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0:33Power Slap 23 is live and free on YouTube on Thursday, September 17th.
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0:56You can watch Power Slap 23 for free on Power Slaps YouTube channel.
1:00Thursday, September 17th for the first time from Texas.
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2:36Download it for free. The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action boss.
2:41Ready! Hit! Alright, here we go. From the tent, throwing end zone.
2:45Spectacular catch! They're saying it's a catch! Touchdown! Now we'll see most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
2:53Oh my god! That's incredible! Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.
2:58Alright? That is the ultimate kibosh. You wanna bet?
3:02And we are underway! What's up, The Generation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings.
3:08This is the Week 2 NFL Betting Preview. I'm Stucky.
3:11Joining me today is my co-host, none other than Doug Kazarian, and also, Statsound, Evan Abrams.
3:17We'll be checking in throughout the show. We have a lot to get to today.
3:23We'll get to every single game on the Week 2 slate, starting with Thursday Night Football in just a moment.
3:30We will... The return of the six-pack is this week.
3:34People were saying, where's the six-pack? So, we're gonna actually change up the format a little bit.
3:40I'm gonna give my best bet. Doug's gonna give his.
3:43Evan's gonna give his. And then, at the end of the show, we'll summarize those.
3:49Doug will give one more, and then I'll give two final ones.
3:53So, I'm still giving three sides, and we'll have six total, including the five from Doug and I that will go into the contest.
4:02And we're not using any stale lines. We're using all current lines from DraftKings.
4:07Doug, thank you for having the only winner on our sides last week with the Jets.
4:13Really? Rocking chair winner. I had a rough week, side-wise, good week, total-wise.
4:18The Texans, it was a coin flip game. Probably shouldn't have bet it, but...
4:23Oh, for sure. There was four fumbles in the game.
4:26They all went to the Bills. Lasseter drops that pick.
4:30Easily could have went either way, but Josh Allen was incredible.
4:34We'll talk about him in just a moment. And then, I did not expect the Panthers to not cover with scoring 37 points.
4:42Yet, although not even coming close. The Bears got their...
4:46The Bears defense was atrocious, but they got their turnovers and their offense could not be stopped.
4:52So, tough week for me, sidewise. Time to get back on track this week.
4:57How's your week one go? You know, very frustrating because I started strong with the Jets, but to be fair, you were
5:05on them too, so you liked them as well.
5:08Just really annoying that the Eagles up 17-3 in the second quarter just kind of hit a wall, so to speak, and
5:16then the backdoor cover by Washington, and then the Cowboys laid that egg, and even with all the drops and everything, end
5:24of the first half, just horrendous timeout usage by Schottenheimer.
5:28So, really frustrating, but them, the breaks, and I said, like, I'm not really a huge sort of volume guy week one, week two, even maybe week three.
5:38We'll see. I mean, it's all about spots. I do like more on the card this week than I did last week,
5:46but you just, these teams treat this like preseason, right?
5:50Week one is such a crapshoot because it's such a long haul and there's only one buy in each conference.
5:57I swear, these NFL teams treat this almost like NBA load management.
6:01They just ease into the season. Yeah, week one is always one of the toughest weeks for me and I think for
6:09a lot of bettors, but we, and you learn a lot about what the new NFL season is going to look like.
6:17It's the old school football's back, the under center revolution.
6:2143% under center snaps. First and 10 under center 66% of the time.
6:26That was 45% week one last year. The biggest movers, so the teams that went under center the most relative to what they did last year.
6:35Well, most of them did well. The Raiders, the Jets, the Giants, the Chiefs, the Jags, the Ravens, the Falcons, the Cardinals, the Lions, and the Commanders.
6:45Those are the teams that all increased their under center snap rate the most.
6:50Why is that important? normal just allows that you can marry that with 13 personnel, which was way up.
6:57I mean, the Bills used it 40% of the time.
7:01Fullbacks on the field, 12.5% of snaps. That was about seven last year in week one.
7:07It puts the defense more in conflict. Play action is more effective, and it just enables you so much more flexibility in today's NFL.
7:15NFL we're seeing like an old school NFL trend will just overtake the league right now.
7:21So like a lot of these offenses look a lot different, and that was one of the things that I definitely noticed the most.
7:30What do you think caused it? Was it just sort of a copycat league and it started to happen in the preseason
7:38and other teams saw it on film? Or how did this realization occur?
7:42Well, I think it's just the so everything was like spread 11 personnel and, you know, defenses have started to adjust, right?
7:50And then you have all like the Fangio, McDonald defenses, the too high shell revolution to take away like explosive plays.
7:58So I think and it's always a cat and mouse game between offenses and defenses.
8:04So I think the next step was, you know, you saw some of what McVay was doing, last year with the 13 personnel, heavier personnel.
8:13It's also why defenses want to find like a nickel that can stay on the field that can defend both the pass
8:21and the run becoming more and more important, becoming almost like a first round draft pick type of position.
8:28But now these defenses against lighter boxes, against more too high safeties, go heavier, go under center, make a safety come down,
8:36then off play action, that's where you're going to get your explosive plays.
8:40So I think it's just that the football is cyclical, NFL is cyclical, and this is just the natural next evolution, so it's pretty fascinating.
8:49We'll keep tabs on that throughout the year. Moving on to week two, I always call it overreaction week.
8:56Now, you want to be selective in, which is difficult, but you want to be selective in what you react to, and
9:04you don't want to just say nothing matters, right?
9:08So you have to pick and choose, okay, I really believe in what I saw last week, or this was kind of
9:15fluky, and I'm not going to overreact to what I just saw.
9:20And if you just look at the numbers historically, I'll give one example, I'll sprinkle in a few throughout the show.
9:27Road teams off of a double-digit loss. So who wants to play a road team that they just saw get dominated?
9:35Right. 48 and 26 against the spread since 2003, 65%.
9:39If you wanted to play those teams this week, here's who you'd have the back.
9:44It just shows you why it's tough to pull in some of these.
9:49Browns, Panthers. Panthers may be a little easier. We'll get to that because of the Falcons quarterback situation.
9:55But Colts, Dolphins, and Packers. So some of those teams, it's like, oof.
10:00But historically, you're at about a 65% clip since 2003.
10:04It doesn't mean to be predicted moving forward. But a lot of times it's like, oh, this team got blown out.
10:11I want nothing to do with them. But you got to remember, it's just one week.
10:17And if this result happened, the result that we saw last week when the team looked really bad, if that happened in
10:25week 13, we would just chalk it up to being an outlier.
10:30So there's going to be some outliers. And to your point, the opponent saw it too.
10:35So how much are they going to get up for this opponent after a big, fulfilling week one start or whatever?
10:43Yeah, and when you do look that bad in week one, sometimes it's, hey, we have new schemes, we have a new coordinator, new play caller, right?
10:53So maybe there's just some growing pains. There's also no one's playing in preseason.
10:58But it soon. And then in week two, you see a completely different look that the defense might not be prepared for.
11:06So there's a lot of that as well. But let's dive into this card.
11:11Let's start with Thursday night football. Thursday night football!
11:14We got a good one between the Bills and the Lions.
11:18The Bills will open their new stadium. The last time these two teams played, the Bills won 48-42 in an absolute shootout.
11:26Josh Allen was incredible. The Bills at DraftKings, are a four-and-a-half point favorite.
11:31Total, a sky-high 54-and-a-half. Doug, what are you seeing here on Thursday night football?
11:36Yeah, a lot of trends involved here, but I think the biggest thing, and that's why sharp money came in right away
11:44on Sunday night on Buffalo to push this from three-and-a-half to four-and-a-half.
11:48It's not a huge number. The four is kind of dead.
11:52Maybe five is dead. Four is sort of irrelevant, just given the two-point conversions and the how frequently we see them, but
12:00it's the short turnaround for a team that played essentially five quarters, you know, the lengthy overtime, and then the, but it's Buffalo with the new stadium.
12:10I will say this, okay, this is interesting. There's concern about the turf.
12:15They had to rip it up three weeks ago.
12:18Players were slipping, and it kind of just reminded me of that Super Bowl, the first Philly's, sorry, Philly-KC Super Bowl in
12:26Arizona when everyone was following around, it was a shootout, and that was the one that was decided by the holding call and the walk-off field goal.
12:36So I almost wonder like alt-overs are a play.
12:39Just if it is this slippery and we have this outlier outcome, then maybe take an alt-over and just kind of see
12:47if you can play with it in that regard and maybe even some props.
12:52Because I do like Buffalo quite a bit in this game.
12:56I think they roll them. I'm not in love with Detroit like everyone else is over the last couple years.
13:04Sure, I root for them. It's a great underdog story in Dan Camp.
13:08I think they're limited. And I will say, you know, you mentioned trends.
13:13Teams that fail to cover in week one like Detroit and enter week two as a dog have been really strong over the last decade plus.
13:2326, 11, and 2. So it's kind of that overreaction to Buffalo who played great.
13:28I still think there'll be a time to fade Buffalo, maybe even next week.
13:33But I think because of the stadium and everything, I do want to ride them and I've never been a big Jared Goff guy.
13:42Yeah, short week on the if there is some slippage, yeah, we saw that.
13:47Remember the Brazil game? Yes. Eagles, Packers, we saw that and I think it's obviously an advantage to the offense if that's the case.
13:56But yeah, one of the reasons, there's a couple reasons why the Bills took so much money.
14:02One, they looked incredible. Two, the Lions had a very underwhelming second half and their offense just didn't look as potent as it has in the past.
14:12mean, they only averaged what I think 5.4 yards per pass play and their offense pretty much died in the second half of that game.
14:21They got fortunate that there was that fumble call that the Lions are coming off of an overtime game on a short week on the road.
14:30Historically 6-19 against the spread. Teams in that spot doesn't happen often but teams have not fared well in those circumstances and
14:38then you throw in the Lions injuries they have multiple injuries on the offensive line they are pretty much going to be
14:46without three of their about a month ago three of their guys they thought were going to be starting on the offensive
14:54line are going to be out because Mahogany is they used they a ton of 13 personnel 40 last year was 5
15:02never more than 15 in any one game and they're playing fast they just unleashed Allen with that great offensive line DJ
15:10Moore now bonafide deep threat looks like that investment was worth it the bills averaged 9.6 yards per first down the highest
15:18explosive play rate in the league against arguably the best defense in the league last week was their highest explosive play rate
15:26of any game in the past three years now I will say the Bills defense is still a problem there I was
15:34impressed with Greg Russo Deion Walker some of their defensive linemen who were going going a different scheme but the back end
15:42is still a problem the linebacker room just in coverage I mean the Texans did whatever they wanted through the air so
15:50and they easily could have won that game if not for a couple four spot what this Bills offense did last week
15:58and what I expect them to keep doing just like unleashing Allen against a very shaky lines defense I think it's Bills
16:06or nothing here good money line parlay piece too if you're looking for one Evan one thing I talked to an odds
16:14maker and I said what do you got early action really sharp book and most notable thing he gave me the over
16:22in that game so maybe the Lions offense can click and you mentioned the defense didn't look great in the second half
16:30and I would agree so I only 24 pretty low for what you would expect from him he said he recognized that
16:38the Texans were getting the ball out quick and he wanted to back off play more coverage there's but anything in that
16:46department yeah absolutely crazy I tweeted this out earlier highest total for a game where both teams are on short rest since
16:542022 and if you go back to 2012 only nine games a total this high both teams on short rest of course
17:02because this is how it works 9 and 0 to the under in those games so good luck if you're going it
17:10was like 50 51 52 very close so margins are tight but kind of fascinating nonetheless all right good stuff there yeah
17:18I think the look is the bills Doug you like the over and you like can can I give you one more
17:26thing here just the Saints so the Saints and Lions game that went to overtime the one factor that I think is
17:34kind of interesting is the fact that the Saints offense for 85 plays we haven't seen that in like a decade so
17:42that should be an interesting factor like second half for Detroit's defense yeah and we know how good the bills are in
17:50second halves so yeah we could see them extend after halftime Doug you and you like Kincaid overs here I do look
17:58he had a monster game six targets but when you have new offense you got to look at what the tendencies are
18:06early and often and that's where Josh Allen was going and obviously he's an MVP type player he's going to hit the
18:14open guy and he's going to have his tendencies and I just think it's what works and what Evan was saying I
18:22can Kinkade so I think it's a really low number in terms of receiving yards it's one of those things you ask
18:30yourself with all these wagers will I be shocked if Kinkade is not part of a shootout when there's potential for the
18:38turf to be slippery for the defense I'd be legit stunned so I'm going to be maybe even laddering Kinkade as well
18:46yeah he was on the field for 75% of snaps way up from last year even if you look at his healthy
18:54games and now they used 13 personnel 3 tight ends 40% of the time when they're using multiple tight ends he's basically
19:02their wide receiver too and it's DJ Moore your deep threat Kinkade is going to get a ton of looks and when
19:10they go to 11 personnel they bring in Shakir for the slot but he's going to be on the field it looks
19:18like a ton which I think is a great thing he's to get to game versus in this case I think he's
19:26going to have a full week of practice right I'm not expecting Kyler Murray to go so I think it's going to
19:34be much more conducive the play calling will be conducive to his strengths and what he wants to do but in terms
19:42of those trends road dogs between one and six and a half so under a touchdown right they're 44 and 17 against
19:50the spread over the last decade in week two I just think it's one of those things where Chicago is getting a
19:58little too much love and I still think their defense gave up looked horrible and I Williams maybe he's got some bad
20:06habits of trying to extend plays too much in the pocket and go off script I think it's just a way where
20:14they're going to keep this inside the number yeah this is the way I would look the Bears offense they put up
20:22for what it's worth they put up 59 points teams off in those games 57 and a half percent but I mean
20:30you look the Bears defense is really really bad so it's hard to ask them to win by margin yeah they did
20:38it last week but there was what a muff punt there was a roughing the passer a there was a number of
20:46different plays like I move Cam Lewis to the slot Malik Muhammad maybe for Tyreek Stevenson but even Jalen Johnson looked like
20:54completely washed out there like there's not much hope for this defense I I'm still shocked they didn't trade for an edge
21:02rusher so you're going to be able to move the ball on this team small sample size but teams who score at
21:10least 40 and win by over 20 in week the line jumped two points and part of that is one of the
21:18reasons you mentioned score over 40 win by 20 a lot of people are like number one the market reacts to that
21:26no one wants to fade that team that looks so good but here's like is there really a big I'm struggling with
21:34this but is there and chance Murray plays it's slim but is there really a big difference between Wentz and Murray right
21:42now I mean Murray didn't look probably not yeah I mean look Wentz knows has been in the system right has played
21:50under O'Connell Murray it's like a different looking offense with Murray so I mean if you look since the start of last
21:58year Wentz ranks 19th in EPA per play among 40 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks that's better than Kyler Murray one
22:06spot behind Caleb Williams for what it's worth and what they did but their offense definitely looked better in the second half
22:14when we talked about this to start the show O'Connell went more under center more play action more multi tight end looks
22:22which I think all can work against the Bears because it was like Murray and shotgun and that's just like not where
22:30the league is heading it's a different looking offense and Murray just didn't look comfortable yet it's probably going to take him
22:38some time so I don't know I could argue that Wentz he's hard to gauge because sometimes you see him and you're
22:46like oh but then like last week he was made all the throws he needed to and looked better than I thought
22:54Murray did early on so I don't know if it's that much of a there's a chance the Bears are just that
23:02good but there's a chance you can lose any wager in the NFL so I think there's a line value here and
23:10I think the spot as much as a spot can be it's worth I mean Brian Flores blitzed 83% of the time
23:18last week he's the second highest ever Wink Martindale against the 49ers in 2023 at the highest rate but he's faced Caleb
23:26Williams has faced Flores four times twice in his rookie year he threw for 340 yards with two touchdowns in his first
23:34ever game against Flores in his rookie year when Iber was the coach week 15 that year it was ugly but the
23:42more relevant sample size is his second year when he was much better at avoiding sacks better against the blitz in his
23:50second year first under Ben Johnson week one they lost 27 24 on Monday night football he went 13 to 16 for
23:58112 yards in the first half they led 17 to 6 and Flores got the better of him in the second half
24:06and then in week 11 his only win versus Flores he was pretty ugly 16 of 32 for 192 yards and that
24:14was with Ben Johnson later in Flores can the Bears are going to hit some explosive plays they're going to have success
24:22running it it's Ben Johnson but I think Flores can get enough stops schematically and the Vikings can move anyone on the
24:30Bears I think this line is a little too high a little bit too much of an overreaction to the downgrade from
24:38Murray to Wentz and from what the Bears did last week offensively against the Panthers their defense was completely lost we'll get
24:46to them for my favorite my first favorite bet and I'm going to go with the Denver Broncos minus two and a
24:54half I look this was sitting at three it ticked down I still think it should be three the Jaguars have looked
25:02great last week but they played the Browns the Browns don't have a functioning NFL quarterback their defense has major holes and
25:10has taken a big step back without Miles Garrett the Jags are 9-0 their last nine regular season games both straight up
25:18and against the spread but they've played the Browns with Watson the Chargers with zero offensive line they beat Arizona in overtime
25:26Tennessee Indy with Riley Leonard the Jets with Brady Cook the Colts with Rivers the Titans again with Brandon Allen and then
25:34their one good win over that stretch was against Denver where the offense cooked they got some turnover luck in that game
25:42there was a missed field goal by Denver but their offense definitely shredded I love Liam Cohen but after that I mean
25:49I just think we're at the top coach of all time against the spread after lost 61 37 and 62 covering by
25:57about four points per game only coach better Bill Belichick even better as a favor to he's 37 21 against the spread
26:0565 so the Broncos defense the Broncos were a mess last week their defense just couldn't tackle so do I think that
26:13they suddenly they suddenly forgot how to tackle I don't think so I mean Mahomes the Chiefs had 248 missed tackle yards
26:21that is the most in NFL history a 30% missed tackle rate the third highest ever I mean look the Denver defense
26:29like I said 18 total air yards they ranked second in I still expect them to be one of the better defensive
26:37units in the NFL and it was the first time calling plays for Davis Webb right I think that's I think that's
26:45the wrinkle that you have to factor into your handicap the most I'm not even almost not even the missed tackles that
26:53would be number two for me I think it's does Peyton get more involved is Webb growing pains is it going to
27:01take another week or more I think that's the concern no yeah I'm expecting Peyton to get heavily involved here he was
27:09asked at halftime what do you think about not calling plays he said ask me after the second half well the second
27:17half didn't go much better so yeah I expect him to get heavily involved here I to the Broncos they have a
27:25very high floor high ceiling defense and I think Peyton is going to get involved here and I think we're just at
27:33the top of the market on the Jags we're getting the Broncos in a good spot revenge from that loss last year
27:41too so give me the Broncos to get it done at home laying under a field goal Evan who are looking at
27:49so I'm kind of taking the same approach that you are I'm just flipping it I like the Colts plus six and
27:57a half right now Sunday night football in Kansas City I think you kind of laid out the entire reason why you
28:05might want to go the opposite direction of Kansas City considering the missed tackles like all the fortunate things that went their
28:13at it doesn't matter the way throwing down field to me it's going to be different this week when you're facing the
28:21Colts defense that obviously should be motivated based how bad they played against Baltimore and obviously a terrible performance but I do
28:29think a little bit of extra time I think Daniel Jones should look better in week two also some injuries on Casey's
28:37defense you guys talked about the dogs in week two I mean 7 and 9 ATS last year but if you go
28:4513 to the last 14 years 500 ATS are better in week two so it is a bit of an overreaction week
28:53so and also I tweeted it 30 and now but I'll take the 7 6 and a half whatever yeah they're home
29:01unders I mean the past five years right there 27 and 8 77 chiefs home unders part of that is they're really
29:09really really really good and this can help a dog at running the clock down at the end of the game and
29:17bleeding it all out without scoring so like a lot of other teams if you're up say you're up 6 with 5
29:25to go and you drive down the field but you can't run it all the way out you end up kicking a
29:33field goal the other team gets the ball back they're down nine they scored the touchdown against your pre-event right that's 10
29:41extra points at the very end of I was I like the Colts too I'm just worried that their defense is that
29:49bad remember all the overs they had beginning of last year when Daniel Jones I think it's just going to take time
29:57for Mahomes to get 18 yards him and Cooper Rush were the only two quarterbacks without a Negative 12% completion percentage over expectation.
30:06He was not sharp. He missed a ton of throws.
30:09He had that really bad interception. So this offense, it's just going to be like lean on Walker.
30:16Now once Mahomes gets right, their offensive line gets healthy, you can see the picture, right?
30:22It's everything else where the NFL is going, right?
30:25Run game, run game, set up the play action.
30:28Then finally you can maybe have some explosiveness down the field with this offense.
30:33Yeah, I worry about what the Colts is that their offense, is bad, bad.
30:38I mean right now because Daniel Jones is not healthy.
30:42He can't move. And Steichen needs a mobile quarterback.
30:45Jones needs to be able to move. I mean watching him run for a first down, which he barely got last week,
30:53it looked like he was running with cement shoes.
30:56He also can't push off I don't think as well for this deep ball due to his Achilles injury.
31:03So like he's not the same quarterback. I had 5.9 air yards per attempt last week.
31:09It was eight last year. And they were playing from behind the entire game.
31:14Alec Pierce is not fully healthy. He's not a full go yet.
31:19So like there's not – they're so relying on Keenan Allen right now.
31:23So I think it's going to be a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor.
31:28But you mentioned the Chiefs injuries on defense. I think it was just like a Spags master class last week.
31:35So I think the Colts can move the ball some.
31:39But this is going to be like – we're talking about old school football.
31:44This is going to be like Kenneth Walker, a lot of Kenneth Walker, a lot of Jonathan Taylor, which lends itself to another underlook in Kansas City.
31:54And then I would agree, Evan, especially at seven.
31:57The only way I could look is the Colts.
32:00But definitely concerned about their offense and their defense outside a corner.
32:05Like there's questions. And there's a lot of new guys.
32:08So we'll see if Anarumo can get it together this week.
32:12There's a lot of new guys and young guys.
32:16They were so out of place last week against the Ravens.
32:20So our first three picks of the six-pack, Broncos minus 2.5, Vikings plus 4.5, and the Colts plus 7.
32:27All right, before we move on, I'll throw it for a quick word on our sponsor, DraftKings.
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33:18DraftKings, the crown is yours. Let's hit some of these other games.
33:22We'll do the marquee 1 o'clock game. Bengals-Texans. Texans 2.5 point home favorite.
33:27Total 46.5. Texans offense did look a lot better last week.
33:31The addition of David Montgomery, the offensive line looked improved.
33:35But maybe some of that was the Bills defense.
33:38But you had to be, if you're a Texans fan, you had to at least just be a little bit more optimistic
33:46about where this offense can take you. It was the defense that really let them down last week.
33:52But maybe that's just Josh Allen being Superman. On a down-to-down basis, they weren't bad.
33:58It was just explosives that Allen hit. But Bengals, meanwhile, they did get the cover, but they gained 22 points, expected points, off of turnovers.
34:07Just Baker turnovers and fumbles. So they were definitely fortunate in that department.
34:12I do think that their defense is a little bit improved, but they're not going to get that fortunate every week.
34:19This is a fascinating game. Burrow has been amazing as an underdog in his career.
34:25Doug, are you seeing anything here? Yeah, I like Houston at two and a half.
34:30I really like their team total over. Obviously, so I would think it's the best bet on the board.
34:37But I think this is Cincinnati's best O-line since having under the Burrow regime.
34:42I mean, they only allowed seven pressures on 37 dropbacks to a Tampa Bay front.
34:48I think that's pretty good, right? Like all things considered.
34:51So, yes, the fumbles are misleading in terms of what the actual matchup was.
34:56But I think the defense was pathetic. They allowed 65% success rate to Tampa Bay offense.
35:02I was impressed, like you said, with Houston's offense.
35:05I think the Texans team total is probably a really good bet.
35:10Because if the defense gets to Burrow, then they're going to force turnovers and do what the Texans defense does.
35:17And there's a lot to be encouraged with the offense.
35:21And going against a Cincinnati D, I think, obviously, Montgomery's probably the new running back, right?
35:26I just think it was explosive by Josh Allen that made the defense look susceptible.
35:32So I'm in on Houston, and I'm in on Houston to score points.
35:37Yeah, I mean, it is pretty telling that the Buffalo was that – Josh Allen was that good.
35:43And the Texans still had a chance to win the game, even after four fumbles.
35:49And wasn't there a review on a spot that they changed that they really should have been call stands?
35:55I think there was – Yeah, and then Lasseter drops a wide-open interception in the end zone.
36:02That's right. That's right. 99 out of 100 times.
36:05But for what's right, Joe Burrow is 17-6 against the spread as an underdog of 2.5 points or more.
36:12He has been good in this role. So he went under center – That's why I like the team total is he's so good.
36:21Like his ceiling is like MVP type. So if the O-line is actually good, which it might be, or at least serviceable,
36:29I don't want to necessarily fade him specifically, but I want to fade the Bengals' defense.
36:34And a must-win, almost a virtual must-win for Houston.
36:38Yeah. Although they started 0-3 last year, so maybe not.
36:41Yeah, that's true. But the schedule – they can't get too far behind in the AFC.
36:47Yeah, it's not a real division. They have a real division now.
36:51Yeah. Burrow went under center in the first half a lot more.
36:56There was a lot of talk about that. But in the second half, they kind of went back to what they were
37:04doing in the past with more shotgun. Curious to see what that split looks like this week.
37:10But this is a more standard-looking offense than what Houston saw last week with like the 13 personnel 40% of the time,
37:18with Josh Allen like creating explosives out of the pocket.
37:22Like this is going to be Burrow in a more traditional formation, like which the Texans match up so well against.
37:29So I do think it's a better matchup for the Texans' defense.
37:34You'd expect them to be salty after getting embarrassed at home last week.
37:38So, yeah, under three, I'd lean Texans. But I also think the Bengals are a good teaser piece.
37:45I don't think that they're going to get blown out here.
37:49It's really hard to blow out Burrow and that offense.
37:52Let's move on to the marquee four o'clock game.
37:56Commanders-Cowboys. Cowboys are out to a four-point favorite after a pretty disappointing effort, especially on the defensive end.
38:02Look, I had high hopes. And I thought that the Cowboys can get to a league average defense, which is all they
38:10need to do to like unlock their ceiling. But I didn't think it was going to be great right away.
38:18I didn't think it would be that poor. So it's not all hope is not lost for the Dallas defense and Christian Parker this year.
38:27But it definitely wasn't pretty. They – But at times it was.
38:31Like they forced the turnovers or the potential turnovers with Scataboo at late, fumbling.
38:36It was just like the running back out of the backfield.
38:40Like the basic stuff. This was Tecmo Bowl stuff.
38:43You know, you just had to pick a few plays.
38:47Yeah, they were running. The Giants were running. They did some good things.
38:52They did some good things. The game was 7-7.
38:55They had the ball before halftime. And Schottenheimer's an idiot and used that timeout on third down, before third down with like 58 seconds.
39:04It's a complete moron. Some of these coaches don't know what they're doing.
39:08I'll get into McCarthy later. He's a complete idiot.
39:12But if Schottenheimer doesn't call that timeout and they don't get it, they punt, you know, assuming the – because Dak on
39:20the next play through that interception, that changed the entire game.
39:24So it's like even as badly as they played, they could have won.
39:28Yeah. I mean, the Giants scored a touchdown on every single red zone trip.
39:33But there was just – Drops. I mean – Yeah, a couple things that stood out.
39:39I mean, the Cowboys' offense was fine. Yeah. Both offenses just moved up and down the field.
39:45But the Giants had a really good game plan.
39:49I don't necessarily think that the Cowboys were ready for it.
39:53But their linebackers are too small. And, you know, like against a power running attack when, you know, with the Giants going
40:01heavier with a running quarterback, that showed that weakness.
40:04And then, yeah, there was just miscommunication. Like they forced – they want to force stuff because they went too high.
40:12But you need linebackers to defend their own, which I'm not sure that they have.
40:17And they would force a lot of stuff to the flats.
40:21But, like, people weren't rallying for the ball, and there was a lot of miscommunication.
40:27So, like, brand new defense, brand new coordinator, that happens.
40:30But now you have injured – overshown is out.
40:33Hooker is out. Your safety. So there's injuries to that defense as well.
40:38And the question is, how long is it going to take for this Dallas defense to get things sorted out on a
40:46down-to-down basis and get that communication right? It might take some time.
40:50Washington, meanwhile, gets the cover against Philadelphia late. I thought Daniels played well, just, like, finding ways to move the ball, buying
40:58time in the pocket, using his legs when needed.
41:02The defense was better than last year. It's hard not to be.
41:06They were definitely, like – you could tell that they were faster and younger.
41:11Last year they were just so slow. And they caused some issues for the Eagles, but part of that could be some Eagles offensive growing pains.
41:21We'll get to that. So this is a super fascinating game.
41:25I just – look, the Cowboys offense, the Washington secondaire doesn't really stand a chance here.
41:30So the Cowboys offense is going to cook. They just destroy at home.
41:35But with the issues on defense, it's similar to, like, the Bears.
41:40I don't want to lay over a field goal with them right now, especially with some injuries.
41:46It was interesting to see the commanders. Durante Jones, their new defensive coordinator, a Flores disciple.
41:52I said Flores blitzed at 80-something percent. The second highest was Jones and the commanders, and I think that makes sense.
41:59They don't have the personnel blitz. Right. The front seven was good.
42:04The front seven did their job. 50% of the time.
42:07And shut down the Eagles' rush attack. For what it's worth, small road dogs under seven off of a week one loss.
42:1547-29-3 against the spread, 62% since 2003. 28-12, 70% over the past 10 years.
42:20But you got the DAC home ATS within the division over the last decade.
42:2517-4. Yeah. I could see a case for either side here.
42:29There's trends to back up either one as well.
42:33I wanted to bet Dallas, but with some of the defensive injuries, with how they looked last week, I just need to
42:41see a little bit more before I'm running to bet them.
42:45Yeah, I mean. Four-point favor, meeting the winning by margin.
42:48To your point, like, Giants should get a lot of credit for last week too, right?
42:54At home, Sunday night, I guess Harbaugh gave some speech in the locker.
42:59You know, they were just reflected a month's. It looked like a team that had been connected and practiced well for the last month.
43:07Like, they just were competent. And they may be sort of like an actual good team.
43:13I think they can win the division. So, I'm curious.
43:17It's funny that you say you like the Cowboys.
43:20Like, the Cowboys' bet would be similar to maybe the Broncos, right?
43:25Yeah. But I'm not. Shorter number. Bigger number. Sure.
43:28I don't. Like, laying four, I need Dallas to win by, you know, then there's going to be.
43:34Jayden Daniels easily get in the back door if needed.
43:38And, like, I just don't. I can't lay four.
43:41Or, like, I'd have to make this, like, seven to feel comfortable doing it.
43:46And I just don't right now. All right. Let's move on to my favorite segment of the week.
43:53And it's the Ravens game of the week when I filibuster about my thoughts on the game.
43:59Let the filibustering begin. Last week, we went over.
44:02That was a no-sweat winner. This week, we're flipping the script.
44:06Going under. Under 47. Some 47s out there. Key number.
44:10Make sure you shop around as always. Ravens, by the way, the eight and a half, nine-point favorites.
44:16So, why did I love the over last week and the under this week?
44:22Well, I mean, look. Last week, it was almost the same exact number against what I think is a worst Colts defense indoors.
44:30And there was, like, the element of surprise with the Ravens offense.
44:34And the Ravens had a healthy wide receiver room.
44:38The big thing here is Zay Flowers, I don't think, is going to play.
44:43And Jacoby Lane went on IR. So, now Rashad Bateman is your number one receiver.
44:48This offense, you could see it last week. Once Flowers left, the explosiveness went way down.
44:54And this offense became much easier to defend. I love some of the stuff that Declan Doyle did.
45:00Lamar looked great going under center. The offensive line still had some issues in the interior.
45:06Gwyn did not have a great day pass blocking.
45:10So, I just don't – look. The offense, without Flowers, without Lane, it's just not as explosive.
45:16It's going to be more running. It's going to be more methodical.
45:20And then on the other side, you have the Saints defense, which this is – where having Sanker as your big nickel can be huge.
45:29Because I expect the Ravens to go more multi-tight end sets.
45:33Sanker can stay on the field, defend the run, defend the tight ends in coverage.
45:39And Staley, he's very good defending play action. They were very good against the run last year.
45:45I think their defense can hold up. Very underrated defense.
45:48And he started to figure out things in the second half of last year.
45:53Tyler Shuck really turned it on in the second half last week.
45:58But they were the worst offense in the NFL in the first half.
46:03And then they went like – and they're going to go fast.
46:07That's one of the things I don't like about this under.
46:11But they really just wore down the lines. And the lines are a bad defense right now.
46:17Now, I love what I saw from Jesse Minter.
46:20You know he's going to take away the explosive plays.
46:24They can play a light box here against the – this isn't Jonathan Taylor.
46:29You can play a light box against the Saints rushing attack.
46:33Tyler Shuck, I think, is going to be confused at times.
46:37Minter's going to throw a lot out. And I loved what I saw from the Ravens defense.
46:43I had questions. But seeing that performance right out of the gate, just everyone was flying to the ball, looked like they
46:51knew exactly where they had to be. So I think that they're going to be able to shut down the Saints offense.
46:59I mean, look, the Saints offense basically had 200 yards after the fourth down conversion.
47:05So it was like 28-21. It was fourth and 12.
47:08If they don't get it, the game is over.
47:12From that point on, they added 200 yards of offense, which is insane.
47:16So if that game ended there, they have 200 fewer yards of offense.
47:21And like I said, the Saints defense last week gave up a ton of points, but they only allowed 5.3 yards per attempt.
47:29That's the lowest for the Lions in the opener, I think, in 15 years.
47:34And the Lions just scored five touchdowns on five red zone trips.
47:39So I like the Saints defense. I like Sanker playing that big nickel in this particular matchup.
47:45I think both defenses are going to take away the explosive play.
47:49And then the kicker is just no lane, no flowers.
47:53And then I think Matabuke might be back. And he changes the complexion of that front for the Ravens.
48:00So give me the under here. I think the line is fair.
48:04I mean, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the Saints just saying, like, look, there's no – the receivers aren't there for the Ravens this week.
48:14And it's going to be, like, Bateman and maybe Surratt.
48:17But I'm so – The spot is terrible. We talked about overtime and those teams now.
48:23Any concern – I mean, it's a different regime except for Lamar.
48:28But any concern, like, some of the eggs that Baltimore has laid in week two in the past after a big week one wins?
48:36That's fair. I mean, I remember the Raiders game they lost.
48:40Yeah, they've blown some leads. Right. They lost to Gardner Minshew, I think, in there.
48:46That may not have been week two, though. Yeah, I think it was.
48:50But – Okay. Yeah, I'm looking at the – I'm looking at the Ravens.
48:56Was it the Lions game when they hit the crossbar on the field goal?
49:01Yep. I'm looking at the Ravens injury report. Matabuke is limited today.
49:05But also, Ronnie Stanley didn't practice. John Simpson didn't practice.
49:09That's two of their starting offensive linemen. Trey Henderson also didn't practice.
49:13He was a finger. I think he should be okay.
49:17But, yeah, this is – But Flowers didn't practice with hamstring.
49:21And you just don't play him in this game.
49:24Like a hamstring injury, you don't mess with that.
49:27I think they set him. So I should say there was a chance he plays.
49:33But I like the under here. Do you have anything here, Doug?
49:37No. I mean, look, I think you can make a case for both sides.
49:42I worry that the Saints just don't have the juice for this game off the marathon game last week.
49:49I will say there's the trend that, like, first half Ravens would be a really good bet just for a New Orleans
49:57team coming off overtime in week one. It's worth mentioning.
50:01Yeah. Lamar is a cash cow in the first half, and he's a cash cow against these NFC teams.
50:07Just – I think it takes some of these teams that aren't used to seeing him and, like, his speed and his
50:15elusiveness and his ability to get outside the pocket.
50:19But I think the Saints are approaching this right.
50:22They're going to play a lot of two-high. They're saying, like, look, we're not going to go after Lamar.
50:29We just have to contain him. So I think that's what you have to do here, especially with the lack of receivers on the outside.
50:38You have to pass rush with integrity, maintain your lane.
50:42So they're at least saying all the right things.
50:45Evan, curious, teams – both these teams scored over 30 last week.
50:49Anything with, like, an under in week two with teams scoring over 30 or just in general?
50:55Honestly, both teams going 30 going into week two is basically a 50-50 proposition.
51:00The only thing I'll say is that the total is under 47, and it ticks up, like, 3%.
51:07It's, like, 53%, 54% if you take the over on 46.5 or less because 47 is so key.
51:14So there is a small little tick up there.
51:17The one other thing that I put in my primer that I always been tracking is Saints early since the start of last year.
51:260-15-3 first quarter money line. 2-16 first quarter ATS.
51:29They have just not – they're down 7-0 last week.
51:32So we'll see how that looks. Down 21-0. So you have all the more early trends and all the Saints early trends
51:40are, like, flashing for Ravens first half play. Interesting.
51:44All right, let's move on to the grossest betting game of the week.
51:48Mmm, what's that smell? It stinks. What do you mean?
51:52This trash. The sweet, sweet trash. The trash is a gold mine.
51:56Gold mine. Gold mine. A couple candidates here. But we'll go with Browns, Bucs, the Baker revenge game, playing his old team.
52:04Tampa looking to bounce back this week after a loss last week.
52:09There are – I could give you about 50 trends.
52:12Bucs, by the way, 8.5 point favorites. Total sitting at 41.5.
52:16I can give you about 50 trends that back up why the Browns are a good player based on historical against the spot numbers.
52:25But, I mean, like week two 0-1 teams, when they play each other, the dogs are about like 65% historically.
52:32That's Browns, Falcons, and Commanders. I could give you 20 of them.
52:37I'm not playing the Browns. I think I'm going to lay it with the Bucs.
52:42I really think the Browns are that bad. Watson is just not a functional quarterback.
52:48Yeah, he's not. And that's the outlier. Last year the Jets didn't have a quarterback complete a forward pass.
52:55And I think that skews all these betting trends because the market can be stubborn.
53:00In college, you get these numbers. Like some of these favorites can go from 9 to 13.5 if the steam comes from the sharp groups.
53:09In the NFL, we don't see a lot. But sometimes you have situations where the quarterback or the team is just that gross.
53:17And I think that's the case here in Cleveland, at least for this week.
53:23Because Watson had the worst EPA per play last year.
53:26He wasn't even blitzed. He had 10 dropbacks last week.
53:30I think they're just – look, they would cut him if it wasn't worse against the cap to do so.
53:37And they're playing him because of an edict from upstairs.
53:41And he's not the best quarterback on the team.
53:44They're just terrible. And yes, to the Jaguars are pretty good.
53:48The defense has holes now. No Gary. I mean, the Jaguars are good in some of that.
53:54But it's also a tough spot. Back-to-back games in Florida.
53:58And the Bucs off that loss. You said Baker gets motivated.
54:02Now they have failed to cover. What is it?
54:0510 straight? 10 and a row. I always am like, will I hate myself if I lose this wager?
54:12Will I feel dumb, right? Like laying chalk, all that stuff.
54:16I think it's one of those things I will not feel dumb if I lay it with the Bucs and they don't cover.
54:24Yeah, I like some of the things the Bucs did last week with their new offensive coordinator.
54:30Hunting to replace Cohen. I think they led the league in play action and motion.
54:36So I like some of the things they did there.
54:40Baker, outside of the turnovers, their offense looked really good.
54:43Yeah. And this, I mean, the Browns offensive line is dealing with injuries.
54:48It's Deshaun Watson. It basically just comes down to Deshaun Watson's not function.
54:53I mean, I think he's going to start this week.
54:56And unless by a miracle he wins this game, then he gets benched.
55:01If it goes bad, he gets benched next week.
55:04You can't, I don't think they can trot him out there in front of the home crowd.
55:10So it would just be... I mean, should they go Taylor Green and see what they have with him?
55:17Yeah, just, they just can't go Watson next week.
55:21Right. But they'll probably go Sanders. But yeah, eventually why not throw Taylor Green out there?
55:26So, yeah, I just can't. Look, every year, and the Browns have fit this mold for many of the years.
55:34But almost every year for like 25 years, there's always one team.
55:38There's like one or two teams that are so bad that a lot of Sharps will be, and including myself, I will
55:46just be like, God, this number's too high. But you just...
55:50Right. The market, you just, you're not downgrading some of these teams hard enough.
55:55Yeah, I mean, a decade ago, the Browns, I don't have it in front of me, but they went like, they had
56:03like one win in a two-year span or something like that.
56:07And they covered like four games in 32 games.
56:10It was like four... And they would get bet a lot.
56:14Yeah, totally. And that's okay. But I think if you get these outlier situations, like the Oakland A's this year, the Colorado
56:22Rockies in previous years, like you get these outlier teams that are just that bad in baseball where like the money lines aren't high enough.
56:31I think there are opportunities. I mean, I have a buddy who calls me the betting bully because I'm not afraid to
56:39lay the lumber in some of these situations if the market is just too conditioned not to get away from their usual sort of window.
56:49I think the Browns, at least last week, I mean, again, Jags are good, but sort of the Bucs.
56:55So I think I'm perfectly comfortable. It's a get-right spot for Tampa.
57:00I think they can hammer them. Bucs, very good teaser piece as well.
57:05Total 41 and a half. You can tease them under a field goal.
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57:28All at once? Yep, story of my life. That's why I switched to T-Mobile.
57:33They have the fastest 5G network. Okay, multitasker. I see you.
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57:52Find yours at T-Mobile.com. Fastest based on analysis by Uclo Speed Test Intelligence data of National Speed Score results, incorporating 5G download
58:00and upload speeds for the first half of 2026.
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58:27You can watch Power Slap 23 for free on Power Slaps YouTube channel.
58:31Thursday, September 17th for the first time from Texas.
58:35Power Slaps biggest card of the year. This is the Dan Levitard Show.
58:39This is Dan Levitard and I've been doing this for more than two decades.
58:44Our show is contagious. It's a little bit addictive.
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58:56Monday through Friday, I show up and talk about sports.
59:00Listen to the Dan Levitard Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever it is that you get your podcasts.
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60:07All right, before we get to some hurry up offense, just in time for football season.
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60:50Super exciting news there. All right, let's get to some hurry up offense, go through some games.
60:57Some of the best of the rest that we're not going to hit on from any of our bets that we like.
61:05Panthers-Falcons. Panthers out to a two and a half point road favorite.
61:09We have no idea the quarterback is going to be for Atlanta.
61:13Panics apparently isn't ready. Tua is not practicing. Panics practiced, I believe, today.
61:18Did he? And so did Cooper Rush. And yeah, Cooper Rush, he's also dealing with a back injury.
61:25There's four options that aren't ruled out here. Jack Strand, who's maybe the best quarterback on the roster.
61:31Right, yeah. Who we just don't know. The Panthers are road favorite here.
61:36They haven't covered a game as a favorite since 2021.
61:40They're 0-9 straight up and against the spread over that stretch.
61:44Their defense was a disaster. But last year, 9-0 ATS off a loss.
61:48Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Carolina. And they annihilated the Falcons in one game last year.
61:54I think they shut them out. Yeah, it was one of the worst, worst games of the season by any team.
62:02I can't, look, Cooper Rush was bad last week.
62:05I mean, basically just everything was, he just basically threw to B.
62:10John Robinson and handed it off to B. John Robinson.
62:13Nothing was downfield. I think he had 20 air yards total.
62:17It was bad. But they outplayed, and he threw a pick six.
62:22But they outplayed the Steelers on a down-to-down basis.
62:25Not sure what that says about the Steelers. I think Pittsburgh's defense should get a lot of credit for Atlanta being that inept on offense.
62:34That's fair. And I thought the defense played okay.
62:37Not that the Rodgers and company is anything special.
62:41But I thought they played better than I thought.
62:44I have to take the points here. If I play, I would have to take the points.
62:50There's a couple things. I want a three. I'm surprised they're favored at all.
62:55So I don't think it's getting a three. I thought it'd be like one Atlanta or something.
63:01I want Jack Strand to get announced as a starter and to go to three and a half, four.
63:08That's my dream scenario. But just too much. The Panthers' defense was so embarrassing last week.
63:14Now, they have some new pieces. They had some rookies that are playing.
63:19They were experimenting with J.C. Horn in the slot some.
63:22The rookies looked really bad. Their new pieces looked out of place in a new scheme.
63:28So it's not going to be that bad all year.
63:32But we'll see what they can fix in a week.
63:35And are the Falcons the team to exploit that?
63:39I don't know. Lindstrom, one of their better offensive linemen, also dealing with a concussion.
63:44So there's a lot of uncertainty here, mainly with the quarterback, the most important position on the field.
63:51But this is getting – I think like with rush, I make it one.
63:56So I would love a three. But if not, the decent teaser piece.
64:01And I would love Strand catching over a field goal.
64:04But not sure we'll get that. Yeah, rookies making their first start, if it is Strand, are great if it's at home.
64:12Like great ATS. It's horrendous if it's on the road.
64:16Yeah, I mean he looked great in the preseason.
64:19Why not? It's pretty funny that's this Falcons quarterback situation.
64:23But like they were – could have won the game last week with their third string quarterback.
64:29I mean the Watt pick six. I mean first of all, oh my God.
64:34McCarthy is such a meathead. He doesn't know what he's doing.
64:38We're going to talk about him next game. But like the fact that he's trying to kick 60 yarders and 55 yarders
64:46when the other team can't even move the ball is just so stupid.
64:51He just doesn't get it. He's a moron. He tries to pretend – like he just doesn't know what he's doing.
64:58It's crazy. Like he's the reason I think in a lot of ways Atlanta was hanging around.
65:04Yeah, I mean in that case you just punt and pin them.
65:09Well, let's talk Patriots Steelers. Patriots a five-point favorite.
65:12Total down to 41.5. Last year, the Steelers went into New England and beat them.
65:1821-14, the Patriots had five turnovers in the game.
65:21The Steelers got pressure on May and he made mistakes.
65:24He was sacked five times. But they had a significant yardage advantage.
65:29And obviously you're not going to win many football games when you have five turnovers.
65:34I will say in fairness to Rodgers in that offense last week, which wasn't great, there were some big drops.
65:41Metcalf had a bunch of drops. There was a missed PI down the field.
65:47So his numbers could have looked better. Yeah, the drop was key.
65:51Yeah, it was a huge drop. So their offense, they could have extended in that game.
65:57One of the biggest things that was evident from the new offense is Rodgers was throwing downfield much more.
66:04Now his numbers are bad. Part of that was, he's not getting any younger, but part of that was the drops.
66:11There was a missed PI. But he threw, he had 8.8 air yards per attempt.
66:17Last year that was under six, which is the lowest in the league.
66:21So they're throwing more downfield. The Patriots offense is going to be without A.J.
66:27Brown here. We have extra time to prepare. I thought they had a really poor game plan against Seattle, like early down runs against that Seattle defense.
66:36I'm curious to see what they come out with here.
66:40McDaniels, with these last two games against Seattle, McDaniels has lost a lot of shine in my book.
66:47Like I would almost say like I was giving him a lot of credit for some of Brady's career.
66:53And he's just been so inept in that game.
66:57I don't know if it's Drake May making mistakes.
67:00For all we know, he's calling a certain play and May is just botching things.
67:05Because obviously May threw that horrendous pick. I don't know what to make of New England.
67:11This line's high. If it were a pick-em, obviously I would take New England.
67:16Last year I was involved in the Patriots in that game with all those fluky turnovers inside the five, a couple of them.
67:25I think it's going to be a rock fight game and the Patriots win.
67:30But the question is, do they cover? I mean, don't forget, Steelers, Atlanta missed two field goals.
67:36I think Pittsburgh missed one, but I think Atlanta missed two.
67:40Yep. I'm going to make a case. I'm going to – this is very, very scary.
67:46You like Pittsburgh, don't you? No. I actually lean New England.
67:50I want to see – But I'm afraid – look, I really like Patrick Graham, the defensive coordinator for Pittsburgh.
67:57And they were – he didn't blitz at all last week.
68:01They blitz like 10% of the time. And you generally don't want to blitz May, especially if you can just get pressure, which the Steelers can without blitzing.
68:11But they were using like three edge looks, like all three of their edge – three of their better players on the field at the same time.
68:21That's how they started the year. They had five linebacker looks with their three edges on the field at the same time a bunch.
68:30But they were going up against Cooper Rush. So what I am worried about with the Steelers is – because I really,
68:38really, really like this defense coming into the year.
68:41But that was assuming their secondary was fully intact.
68:44That means Joey Porter, who – he was at practice today, but I think he's going to get traded.
68:51I'm not sure he's going to play this week.
68:54I want to wait on that. Deshaun Elliott at safety, which would allow Ramsey to play in the slot all the time.
69:02But now, you know, Elliott's on IR. Porter's a big question mark.
69:07So you're playing like Rayshawn Jenkins a bunch who's completely washed at safety.
69:11And it's – Asante Samuel Jr. is out there at corner.
69:15So the secondary I have lots of questions about.
69:19Now, it helps. There's no A.J. Brown. This will just come down to how effective can the Steelers be in generating pressure without blitzing.
69:27And they might get to May and force them into mistakes.
69:31But I do think May can hit some explosive plays here against this, like, not 100% Steelers secondary.
69:38So I'm going to make a case for a contrarian over now that this has come down.
69:44Especially if it gets to 41. Now, last week my contrarian over was Raiders-Dolphins over 40.
69:50And I had over 40 and a half. I had some over 40 and a half before.
69:56Hours gets announced out after the podcast. I have over 40 and a half.
70:01It goes down to 40. There's 40 points scored with four minutes to go in the third quarter.
70:08There's a missed field goal, and then no one scores again.
70:12That was brutal. But my contrarian over this week is this one.
70:16Because the Steelers are now throwing the ball more downfield.
70:20I think New England can hit some explosives downfield against this not 100% Pittsburgh secondary.
70:25So I think that this one can get a little squarelier.
70:29Would lean Patriots against a number. Second favorite prop for me is Drake May's rushing yards over.
70:35When he's pressured like he was with Seattle, he's going to take off.
70:40Last year he had 45 rushing yards against Pittsburgh.
70:43His number is about 25. I think he's going to tuck it and run a bunch, especially when that Pittsburgh defense, which
70:51you mentioned, obviously doesn't need to blitz in order to get pressure.
70:56There are going to be opportunities. Yeah. Yeah, teams with extra rest early on and before week two have historically done well.
71:04And I think there's some merit to that because it's like, hey, we see where our weaknesses are.
71:10We see what didn't work. So like early in the year with like new pieces, new.
71:16So you can like give a couple extra days to fix some things.
71:21I think that there can be some value to that.
71:24So I do lean Patriots, but it's not cheap.
71:28Like you're paying for like the bounce back spot here.
71:31But I just think it's notable that I think the Steelers secondary is very weak.
71:37It just wasn't going to get exposed last week.
71:40And the Steelers are actually throwing downfield more. And it wasn't reflected in the numbers due to some of the drops and a missed PI.
71:49So if this total keeps coming down, especially like 41, I might get involved in the over.
71:55And then finally, Dolphins 49ers. This could have been the gross game of the week.
72:0149ers 13 to 13 and a half point favorites.
72:04They're 13 and a half at DraftKings right now.
72:07Total 44 and a half. Totals come down. I think the under makes sense.
72:12I think San Francisco is going to lean on the run here, which they can and then get a lead and sit on it.
72:21The Dolphins got dominated by the Raiders. That is not a good look, especially without Brock Bowers.
72:27They might be one of like they're paying for players more for players that aren't on the team than are on the team.
72:36They're the worst team, right? They're worse. Yeah, they're the worst team.
72:40I downgraded them a bunch. I would need the biggest question here is like, what is the travel due to San Francisco?
72:48That was my question for you. Which team has worse travel?
72:52Coming off. Yeah, I mean, Dolphins are staying out there.
72:56So, I don't know. I was so wrong on the Rams 49ers Australia game.
73:01But like it makes sense that the 49ers have a bigger after effect because they were there for like a week, right?
73:09So their bodies. But they had longer, longer recovery time and at home versus this Miami team that's on the road.
73:16You could argue Miami's in a worse travel spot.
73:20Yeah, I would need. I was thinking about Miami here.
73:23But double digit dogs. I would need 14 to think about it.
73:28And they're just a team I don't. I think I just don't want to bet at all until double digit dogs in
73:36week two, like actually don't do well. It's typically typically.
73:39Right. So it's that high for a reason, whatever narrative you want to slap on.
73:45I was just surprised Willis didn't really do much on offense that I thought he would.
73:51He didn't run a ton. But that D line was just smoked off the ball.
73:56I think Niners should be able to just mount, you know, maul them and run all over them.
74:02Yeah. I mean, this could be a fast moving game.
74:0649ers just lean on the run, build a lead, sit on it.
74:10So under makes sense. And I wouldn't blame anyone for just betting against the Dolphins until maybe the market catches up.
74:18Like this, the fare for this could end up being like, you know, 15, 16 if we just don't know how bad this Dolphins team really is.
74:28And like the first data point of getting trounced by the Raiders without their best player, not great.
74:34Let's hit Monday Night Football. Giants, Rams. Rams, seven and a half point favorite totals come down a bit to 47 and a half.
74:43Spoiler alert. One of my other two contest picks is the Rams minus seven.
74:48And maybe there's some travel impact, but they've had extended rest.
74:52This game's going to be played on Monday night and they went into Australia and then right out.
74:59So it's not like their bodies even adjusted to being there.
75:03Right. So but like this is one of the times where I am not going to overreact.
75:09And the fact that I can get the Rams at a touchdown, I'm in.
75:14You would have told me before the year I can lay seven at home.
75:19With the Rams against this Giants team. I'd be running to the window.
75:24Look, the Giants look great. They had a great game plan.
75:28Hat tip to Nagy. Hat tip to Dart and likely in Harbaugh.
75:32But they were playing a Cowboys defense that was just not prepared for some of the looks.
75:38And now I mean, look, then now the Rams have on tape what this Giants offense is going to look like.
75:46And they did some good things. But this is still a Rams defense.
75:51I just think that last in Australia, such a weird circumstance.
75:55They look like they had no energy from the start.
75:58Who knows how the travel impacted them? They just look lifeless from the jump.
76:03But this is a defense all last year that was able to defend the run with light boxes.
76:10I don't see why that would change this year.
76:13I think the Giants just had one of those.
76:17You know, it'll be one of their two best games of the year.
76:21The defense is still abysmal, especially in the secondary.
76:25I do not know how they're going to cover the Rams.
76:29I don't know how they're going to stop the Rams rushing attack.
76:33And unless the Giants are going to score every single possession and score touchdowns, I just don't see how the Rams don't extend here.
76:42You'll get their best effort here. McVay, I mentioned Peyton after a loss.
76:46McVay after a loss, one of the best in the NFL.
76:50Actually, in NFL history, at least 63% against the spread after a loss.
76:55So yeah, their run game should cook here. They could throw to whoever they want.
77:01They could go heavy personnel. They can throw to whoever they want here.
77:05I don't see how the Giants are going to get many stops.
77:10And I don't expect that Giants offense to look that good again this week against a more established, more talented Rams defense.
77:18So I think we're getting the Rams cheap here based on what everyone saw in Australia.
77:23What do you think this number closes Monday night?
77:27I'm seeing like... I think like nine and a half.
77:30I honestly think it'll just come flooding in because sharp groups are hammering seven.
77:35I'm seeing like 90% of tickets are on the Giants right now.
77:40So like a Monday night game can have some...
77:43But the sharp groups are mauling seven. So it's like they can't go to six and a half.
77:50So it's just going to go higher. So you think it's day seven, I guess?
77:55I don't think it'll get too high. So like if you're going to get a ton of public support at like seven
78:03and a half, and then you're getting sharp sitting at seven.
78:07So like I think it'll close seven and a half.
78:11I just don't think that this should be seven or below.
78:15So I like the Giants. I mean, I like the Rams and I don't mind the under just because...
78:22I mean, the Giants are like a service academy team.
78:25They're just like they're going to be very slow, run heavy, throw to their tight ends a ton, take up a ton of time, ton of possessions.
78:35Like there's going to be limited possessions. Like look at that second half of the Cowboys game.
78:41And there's four possessions and four touchdowns. It was pretty crazy.
78:45Well, also, I said this last show is like the West Coast teams last year, 9-0 ATS in primetime went facing an East Coast team.
78:54And then, of course, it was the push with Seattle and New England.
78:59But we have that case here. I mean, there's something to be said about that travel.
79:05I just know like, again, really sharp groups are Moneyline parlaying this.
79:09Like the value is like all on like LA.
79:12Like it's just such a low suppressed number. To be honest, like you said, the public's on the dog.
79:19Like it might be a good like Moneyline play just with it's sort of like the Super Bowl is, right?
79:27They'll just there's so much money on the dog Moneyline that it just gets suppressed.
79:32And there actually is significant line value. And, you know, a big shark group shoving here on the Rams.
79:39Yeah. And it's like the horse race where you do like some horse with and you do a bunch of exactos.
79:47They've done that with the Rams Moneyline with a few teams.
79:51Yeah. Yeah. I think that this everyone it's in one week.
79:55This is like the prototypical week one. Now, I could be wrong.
79:59The Giants come out, win this game. It's the NFL.
80:03And I think it happened. But this is the prototypical week two overreaction game.
80:08Right. A week and a half ago, everyone was low on the Giants.
80:12Like Matt Nagy, like Matt Nagy's offensive coordinator. And everyone was saying the Rams are a super team.
80:19No one's going to beat them. The Rams lose to the 49ers.
80:23It was a Shanahan masterclass in another country. The Giants beat the Cowboys at home.
80:29And now all of a sudden, everyone is running to bet the Giants.
80:33And like, so, yeah. Give me the Rams at seven.
80:37And I will say, like the week one, like I think if I were to make a futures bet and maybe be
80:45guilty of overreacting, I think the Giants to win the division.
80:49At good payoff, not like the favorite. But I think they looked so much more competent.
80:55And if they have enough pieces, neighbors only going to look more healthy the rest of the year.
81:01Like that could be one of those like nine, ten wins gets the division.
81:06And I wouldn't be shocked if they're like a really good home team and stuff like that.
81:13I don't think they're going to win this game.
81:16But I underrated them coming in. Yeah. I think they, what I saw, I think is sustainable the rest of the year.
81:24No, they're definitely better than I, I mean, I upgraded them.
81:28I downgraded the Rams too, but I still can't get to this number.
81:33Let's get to our underdog Moneyline Parlay presented by DraftKings.
81:36Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the Moneyline Parlay.
81:41I'm going to start things off. Last week, Doug, you went with the Jets.
81:46Jets. Well, I'm going with the Jets. I'm going with the Jets this week.
81:51I, this number has come down. I'm at three.
81:54I would lean Jets. Might end up playing the Jets.
81:58There could be some rain in the forecast. The Packers offensive line is bad.
82:03They were dead last and pass block win rate last week.
82:07That was my, one of my biggest concerns with this offense.
82:11And now the run game isn't as good because there's no Josh Jacobs.
82:16The defensive front is bad. The Jets offensive line can handle them.
82:20And if you give Gino time, he can cook like he did last week.
82:25The Jets are much improved like this. I bet their win total over.
82:30They added a ton of just talent to this team.
82:33They are a much more serious operation than they were last week.
82:38I also like some of the things Frank Reich did schematically last week.
82:42I think he had five tight ends on the field at one point, like one in the backfield.
82:49And did you see that formation? No, no. I mean, it's hard to watch eight games like simultaneously.
82:55I was, I was in a book, but I had a, you know, no pad out at a table.
83:02I think there was a tight end in the backfield and then four tight ends spread out wide.
83:09Talk about the tight end revolution. So, but they've, they've used 13 personnel, 18% of the time they went drafted a tight end.
83:17So, and I think that they can have a ton of success doing that against the Packers.
83:23Packers defense, just too many holes without Micah Parsons.
83:27Now the one concern here is the, like the Packers should have won last week against the Vikings.
83:33Yeah. Like they were, it was, they were an unlucky loser.
83:37This line is coming down and love was really good.
83:41Yeah. He, they hit some explosives and then they just, look, it unraveled.
83:46There was a, they didn't get the fourth and one.
83:49There was the, all the bad penalties. And then the turnovers at the end of the game, but love for what it's worth.
83:58He's 0-8 against the spread on the road when laying over a field goal.
84:03Huh. Um, the one thing I'm worried about in this game is the Jets secondary.
84:08If the Jets need to, I think they can get pressure here without, you know, sending everyone like Flores did.
84:15So they're able to like, just play more coverage, get pressure on love.
84:20But this Jets secondary is my biggest concern on the team.
84:24And Minka Fitzpatrick is now on IR. But you're looking at a secondary, or not IR, but he's going to be out a couple weeks.
84:33You're looking at a secondary of like Brandon Stevens, you know, Jarvis Brownlee, Malachi Moore, Andre Siscoe, Dane Belton, Nashawn Wright.
84:41Like, against those Packers receivers, that does scare me.
84:44But, um, and look, the Jets look great. The Packers lost an unlucky game.
84:49So it's not like my typical type of play, but I just think the Jets are still a little bit undervalued.
84:57Back-to-back road games for the Packers to start. Yeah, I think this, this Jets team, this, this, I think this line, I actually make the three.
85:06So I do still show some value. Um, yeah, give me, give me the Jets money line to start.
85:13Two and, oh, where are you going, Doug? So I thought about the Jets, thought about the Falcons.
85:20Uh, I'm going to go Raiders. And it's kind of an overreaction.
85:24Is this because you're angry at the Chargers for ruining your survivor?
85:28Ugh. Which is so funny, because in the preseason, I was saying how I hate it when guys get all mushy with their fiancet.
85:37They get married or have a kid. They just like shift their focus or priorities.
85:43But honestly, and I'm curious to hear, you're like the eye test.
85:47But the Chargers have no speed anywhere. Like on defense, all the Arizona wide receivers were open.
85:53And they're, and with McConkie hurt, like there's just no speed for the Chargers.
85:58Now, Herbert played really bad. He figures to play better.
86:02Um, but I think the Raiders can bring sort of like a, like an edge to this game.
86:08Like I thought the O-line was incredibly well coached.
86:12Now it's against Miami, but, um, Bowers is now day to day.
86:16Cousins did throw some picks, but I think he's fine when he has protection.
86:21I, I was just very underwhelmed by this Chargers team.
86:25And this could be one of those, I mean, it feels like a little like, I don't know, Penn State almost like last year.
86:33I just, it feels like a team that has like good on paper.
86:38Once you see them out there, like the eye test, like nothing special in terms of their weapons.
86:45Hamptons should be a weapon, but the O-line wasn't doing anything.
86:49I don't, it was, look, it was a very flat spot, very flat, excuse me, performance.
86:55And that happens in week one. Sometimes I just don't know if I'm going to see all of a sudden this bounce back performance.
87:03And the Raiders are kind of maybe young and dumb enough to think they're good to at least have another good performance in week two.
87:12So yeah, well the Raiders offensive line, like from a buy low, sell high perspective, like the Chargers are the look here.
87:20Like look, the Raiders look great, but they played the worst team in the league.
87:26Right. Chargers lose at home as a big favorite.
87:29Now this line has come down through seven and it's keep going down.
87:34But I don't hate it as a money line dog play, like because number one, McConkie, he is super critical to this offense.
87:42They were averaging 6.3 yards per play with him, 4.2 without him.
87:46Herbert's EPA per pass with him, positive 0.22 without him, minus 0.33.
87:51He's not practicing today, dealing with a rib injury.
87:54We won't know. It doesn't mean he can't play because he's not practicing today.
87:59We probably won't know until Friday. Like rest is the best thing for it, but he probably won't be 100% really decent chance he doesn't play.
88:09Meanwhile, the Raiders could get Bowers back. Like that's a huge swing.
88:13Like if the Chargers don't have McConkie and the Raiders get Bowers back.
88:18But there was like the interior offensive line for the Chargers is a disaster.
88:23Now the good thing is the Raiders don't have a dominant interior defensive line and your tackles are really good.
88:30So you can handle Crosby, who's really like their only playmaker up front.
88:35So that's like the good news for the Chargers, but they're just not able to run the ball.
88:41Negative 0.13 yards before contact per rush. Dead last in the NFL last week.
88:46They can't block anyone in the interior. It somehow got worse.
88:50They gave up a blocked punt. But yeah, it was bad all around.
88:55And then the Raiders offensive line, meanwhile, is significantly improved.
88:59I know it was against the Dolphins last week, but when you add one of the best centers in the NFL and
89:07you have a healthy Colton Miller now, it is exponentially better.
89:11We've seen upsets of like over a touchdown like this where the dog played really well, like out of their minds, right?
89:19But that wasn't the case. Like Arizona played well and got first downs.
89:23Again, Brissette, the floor is always higher with him.
89:27Like he's decent, right? But like the Chargers didn't even, I mean, the Cardinals didn't even play that great.
89:34The Cardinals were, the Chargers were completely inept the whole time.
89:38And I don't know if that's fixed overnight. You're right.
89:41Like the spot teams that are, you know, lose outright as a big favorite, always bounce back.
89:47But every year, I swear it's like, maybe Evan can help us out, but I think it's like 10, 15 straight years,
89:55something like that, where there's a team with a win total of at least 10.
90:01So a double digit win total that misses the playoffs.
90:05I mean, this has Chargers written all over it.
90:08Yeah. I mean, the other thing is, which I didn't even mention is the defense, which if you look on paper, it's not that talented.
90:17And then we saw what Minter did for the Ravens.
90:21They lose Jesse Minter. The defense looked slow. The guys were out of place.
90:26So they're really fast. They put Derwin James on McBride.
90:29And obviously McBride's really good. He got open on some short dinks on third down.
90:35Like that's fine. Derwin James is great. But besides that, there's just no speed.
90:40I think. And that's the thing where like these Raiders, no name receivers, but they're fast.
90:46So that's all that matters. Yeah. And it's, it's there's sharp group at the under.
90:51I know a sharp group that bet the under it's probably McConkie driven.
90:56Um, I don't know. I could see it going under and being kind of a variance game.
91:02Yeah. Because when cousins really can't throw down field, like.
91:06Yeah. He was worse than I thought, to be honest.
91:09He had some really bad. I thought he'd be like a game manager with no Nick, you know, not nicked up early in the season, be fresh.
91:19I thought he'd be much like a little bit more polished, but yeah, he had some bad picks.
91:26This is a, I mean, I, I don't want to say this early in the season, but as much of a must win.
91:34Oh, you can have for week two for the.
91:37Because with their schedule, it is. Hardest seven game stretch in like 10 years coming up.
91:43You start Arizona and Vegas at home. You're like, we need to go to know if you go.
91:50Oh, and two before at Buffalo at Seattle, Denver at Kansas City at the Rams, Houston at Baltimore.
91:56And then I thought there was a level of competency.
92:00I had never, I had not seen a long time with the Raiders.
92:04I mean, they're still paying like five head coaches.
92:08I swear. But the other thing is it's a divisional game, but it's on the road, but it might be a home game.
92:16Right, right. Yeah. I mean, I'm from L.A. originally and I'm a Raiders fan because I left when they left back in the 90s.
92:25I just think it was a well thought out game plan.
92:29Just like everything had perfect, like the competent Ashton Jenty actually looked really good.
92:34I don't know. Like, I think it's worth a flyer on the money line.
92:39All right. And that parlay of Jets Raiders comes to plus 800.
92:43And you should be looking to place that at DraftKings.
92:47Because all throughout the month of September, DraftKings has given you profit boost every game day.
92:53Just one of the many reasons the crown is yours.
92:56All right. Teaser of the week. Always tease, tease, tease.
93:00We're going to go mention the Bucs. Makes sense.
93:03Low total. Tease that under a field goal. Fade to Sean Watson.
93:08And then take the Bengals up over a touchdown.
93:11Burrow as a dog. Don't see him getting blown out here.
93:15Should be a competitive game. So we're going to go Bengals-Bucs as our teaser of the week.
93:21And then for Survivor. Doug is gone. He stays silent during the segment.
93:26He can thank the Chargers and the Cardinals for that.
93:29I'm going to go. I had the Steelers last week.
93:33I didn't think I was going to have to sweat after it was Cooper Rush, but I did.
93:40I'm going to go with the Bucs this week.
93:43This is one of their easiest spots on the schedule.
93:47So we're looking just to advance here. Not get too cute.
93:51I will get cute sometimes. But this week, just going with the Bucs.
93:55I mean, I could go with the 49ers if I just wanted to advance.
94:00But saving them in pocket. There also is the thought like some – I know a couple people in Survivor that are just fading the Dolphins every week.
94:10Possible. March for Arch. I mean, there's tanking maybe rear its ugly head big time in the NFL that we haven't really seen.
94:19Yeah, especially with this quarterback class. All right, let's get to a summary of our contest picks and the overall six-pack.
94:26And we'll get to my final pick. Doug has the Vikings.
94:30And – oh, wait, you haven't given your second pick yet.
94:34Where are you going for your second pick? Yeah, so I mentioned that sharp group.
94:40I had two plays. One was the over on Thursday Night Football.
94:44The other one was Arizona. But I'm on Seattle.
94:48I like that side. It's official. Sam Darnold's not playing.
94:51Drew Locke. And he only had one shaky throw.
94:54And that was at the end of the first half.
94:58But I thought the second half he was on point.
95:02And full week of practice, Seattle, I think, will be ready to rock.
95:06I think it's obviously the obvious flat spot of Arizona.
95:10And, again, I didn't think they played that great.
95:13They're obviously a competent offense with – you know, they can do some things on offense downfield.
95:20But I think the Seattle defense is special. I think Drew Locke.
95:24I'm not – like, Darnold was great last year.
95:27But I think a lot of that was the system and Kubiak.
95:32I think Locke will be fine. I think Locke will be fine.
95:36It's a short enough number with that defense. I'm not worried about, like, a flat spot off the big win against New
95:44England because it wasn't that big of a win for them.
95:48I think it's a short number here at three and a half.
95:52I'm surprised. I disagree with you. I think I'm going to be on the Cardinals here.
95:58I just – I make – the Cardinals last day, they've just been so unlucky with injuries.
96:04They have good young pieces on defense. Like, this is a way more talented team than the market perceives now.
96:11And I've been to that stadium. It's a sneaky underrated home field.
96:16Really? Yeah. It gets loud. I've never been to a game there.
96:20But I still have it. I have, like, a four and a half point.
96:25Look, Locke looked incredible. But we've seen backups come in mid-game.
96:29Like, we kind of know who Drew Locke is.
96:33I can't get to laying three and a half with Drew Locke on the road against.
96:38But there is Mike McDonald. Don't doubt him. He's very good.
96:42He's very good. Last year, they played the Card.
96:46They played Brissette. And they basically had two of the same exact strip, sack, fumble return for touchdowns.
96:52And they were up 28-0 before you could blink in that game.
96:57So he could just scheme Brissette into mistakes. He's 13-4-1 ATS.
97:01Yeah. You can put your money with many worse coaches than McDonald.
97:05Probably won't be 77% lifetime. But, you know. Pretty damn good start.
97:09All right. So Doug's picks are the Vikings, which I agree with, and the Seahawks.
97:15I'm not there, but I can see why you're going.
97:18It's going to be a sweat. With McDonald. It should be a good sweat.
97:23And then Evan is going with the Colts. Try to wait for a seven there.
97:29I'm going to go with my first pick was the Broncos.
97:33My second pick, get ready for it, everyone. We're officially back.
97:37Zach, I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus seven.
97:40This, I don't want to do this. This will be the only podcast I'm pretty sure that you'll hear making a case for Tennessee.
97:49Probably because it's the only podcast with a moron who talks about the NFL on it.
97:55So, look, now I will say it's seven at DraftKings.
97:58It's the number we're going to use. Wait, no one is betting the Titans.
98:03I think they'll probably touch seven and a half at some point.
98:08Although it's pretty telling, this thing will not budge.
98:11I talked to one odds maker who said there's 97% of the tickets on the Eagles so far, which is ridiculous.
98:19Evan, do you have anything on the Eagles splits right now on the app or anywhere else?
98:25I can't imagine there's more than four bets on the Titans.
98:29Yeah, it's about that range for us. But I tend to not even want to talk Wednesday, early week.
98:36But yeah, it is one of the biggest public sides.
98:39Well, you don't even need to look at anything to know how one side of that's going to be.
98:46All right. So, number one. The Shark group bet over 39 and a half.
98:51I know that. So, maybe the offense wakes up.
98:55Look, it was a disaster last week. I mean, Ward, he had, like, I don't know what they were doing.
99:02They had the highest neutral pass rate, but they had a top five EPA per rush, and they just kept throwing it.
99:10He had the lowest time to throw, but when he was not, the offensive line was bad.
99:16When he was not pressured, he had the third highest off target rate, even though he was only throwing it an average of five yards downfield.
99:25He was missing easy throws to the flat. His footwork was off.
99:30His targets downfield averaged the fourth most separation in the league, yet he only threw the ball deep at the second lowest rate.
99:38Everything was a disaster. There was wide receivers running into each other sometimes.
99:43The play calling was a disaster. Everything was bad.
99:46The defense also, it's not talented in the secondary.
99:49It was bad, and they got carved up by the Jets.
99:53Now, in fairness, I will say the Jets had, like, a 17-play touchdown drive that took, like, 10 minutes, and then the
100:01Titans fumbled a kickoff, and the Jets got the ball back, and, like, it was 100 degrees.
100:08Like, I think their defense just wore down. But, and look, the Titans stink.
100:13I downgraded them again, and I hated them coming into the year.
100:17I just can't get to the summer, especially at 7 1⁄2.
100:21So, I'm around 6. And part of that is the Eagles didn't cover last week.
100:27The Eagles' offense was a mess. Like, I think Hurts played well, but they couldn't run the ball.
100:33They averaged .28 yards before contact per rush against the commander's defense.
100:37It was 28th in the league. Hurts had a league-high 33% non-target rate.
100:42So, it was a lot of throwaways, and the protection was bad.
100:46Now you're dealing with Dickerson on IR. You might bring in, you might flip a guard to a center.
100:53You might have a backup card in there. Like, so, against Jeffrey Simmons and the strength of that Tennessee defense, the Eagles only had 10 first downs.
101:03Six were on third down. There were three. One was a third and 18 scramble, which was huge in the game.
101:11There was a third and 17, third and goal pass from the 17-yard line.
101:16That was huge. But the offense, new offense under Sean Mannion, they're still growing pains.
101:21So, like, they didn't exceed my expectations. They didn't cover last week.
101:26I thought that this line was going to be like five and a half, six.
101:31The kicker, so I am going to say that the Titans are going to be better.
101:37They have to be better. They can't be worse than last week.
101:41But, you know, new coaching staff, new schemes. You hope that they're just a little bit better.
101:48The kicker for me is Salah versus Hertz. Salah has Hertz's number.
101:52I mean, he, last year with a practice squad defense, beat him in Philly.
101:57They had basically no one left among their starters on defense.
102:01Beat him in Philly, decent-sized underdog. A couple years ago with the Jets, Zach Wilson's starting quarterback, they were catching seven at home.
102:09Beat him outright, shut him down. So, he shut down Hertz in both meetings.
102:14I think he, it's a very difficult matchup for Hertz, and he has his number for whatever reason.
102:21Now, it's only two starts, but I think that there's something there.
102:25Also, this is just, we're buying at the very low of the mark on the Titans.
102:31Catching seven at home with a total of 39.
102:34One reason I wouldn't like that over, number one, the Titans might just not score.
102:40But it's going to be like 98 degrees. So, when it's that hot, scoring drops, I think, like 8-9% historically.
102:47But home dogs in week two after losing in week one by double digits at home.
102:53So, you just saw a home team lose by double digits at home.
102:58They're back at home as a dog. So, very small sample size, but very successful against the spread.
103:04Over the last 20 years, they're 7-2 against the spread.
103:08And the quarterbacks that have covered are like Pickett, Rush, Bortles, Derek Anderson, Carson Wentz.
103:13Like, these are the quarterbacks you got to back.
103:17Not elite. I'm playing a number here, but I'm also fading this Eagles.
103:21And look, Hurts has not been good as a road chalk in his career.
103:26I'm fading this Eagles offense. The Eagles basically need to win by double digits here.
103:32I don't think their offense is at the state.
103:35But they should dominate the trenches, right? Yes. Which is what the Jets did.
103:40Which is what the Jets did to Tennessee. Yeah.
103:43But there are injuries in the interior. Like, if Simmons and company.
103:48And they weren't that great against Washington. Yeah. If Simmons and company can cause some chaos here, I'd wait for the 7-1⁄2.
103:56But my third pick is the Tennessee Titans. It wouldn't be the start of the podcast and our podcast until I have a bet on the Titans.
104:06Which never ends well. So everyone go out and bet the Eagles.
104:10But for our contest picks, we'll summarize. Doug's going with the Vikings plus 4-1⁄2.
104:15The Seahawks minus 3-1⁄2. I'm going with the Broncos minus 2-1⁄2.
104:19The Rams minus 7. And the Titans plus 7.
104:22And then Evan, to make it a six-pack, is throwing in the Colts.
104:27But wait for 7. Nice. As far as shopping around, I think the biggest keys are, yeah, Colts, you want to wait to see if a 7 pops.
104:37Titans, wait on that. I don't think it's going to go below 7.
104:42Wait to see if a 7-1⁄2 pops. But that is our Sunday six-pack and our contest picks.
104:48Thanks to Doug for joining me. Thanks to Evan, as always.
104:52And thanks to our producers on the back end.
104:55Most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in.
104:59Make sure you subscribe, subscribe, subscribe, tell a friend, tell an enemy.
105:03Do a five-star review really helps us out. You can follow all of our picks on the award-winning Action Network app.
105:11Thanks to Giraffe Kings. We'll catch you all later.
105:14Cheers. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
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