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0:33Power Slap 23 is live and free on YouTube on Thursday, September 17th.
0:37Dana White is bringing Power Slaps to Texas for the first time on the campus of Texas Tech University.
0:44Two massive title fights headline the card, including slap fighting legend Wolverine.
0:49Also on the card is former WWE champion Jake Hager and the debut of former UFC heavyweight Chris Barnett.
0:56You can watch Power Slap 23 for free on Power Slaps YouTube channel.
1:00Thursday, September 17th for the first time from Texas.
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1:08This is Dan Levitard and I've been doing this for more than two decades.
1:13Our show is contagious. It's a little bit addictive.
1:17It's in the most positive of ways. It has a good amount of range from smart to silly and it's got a journalistic backbone.
1:25Monday through Friday, I show up and talk about sports.
1:29Listen to the Dan Levitard Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever it is that you get your podcasts.
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2:09Seth, Lingo Kids, please! When did we become the Lingo Kids house?
2:14No idea. Last week it was dinosaurs. This week it's...
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2:25With more than 4,000 interactive games, songs, and shows, Lingo Kids is the number one entertainment platform for young kids.
2:32So, no dinosaurs? And dinosaurs! Lingo Kids! Everything kids love.
2:36Download it for free. The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action boss.
2:41Ready! Hit! Alright, here we go. From the tent, throwing end zone.
2:45Spectacular catch! They're saying it's a catch! Touchdown! Now we'll see most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
2:53Oh my god! That's incredible! Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.
2:58Alright? That is the ultimate kibosh. You wanna bet?
3:02And we are underway! What's up, The Generation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings.
3:08This is the Week 2 NFL Betting Preview. I'm Stucky.
3:11Joining me today is my co-host, none other than Doug Kazarian, and also, Statsound, Evan Abrams.
3:17We'll be checking in throughout the show. We have a lot to get to today.
3:23We'll get to every single game on the Week 2 slate, starting with Thursday Night Football in just a moment.
3:30We will... The return of the six-pack is this week.
3:34People were saying, where's the six-pack? So, we're gonna actually change up the format a little bit.
3:40I'm gonna give my best bet. Doug's gonna give his.
3:43Evan's gonna give his. And then, at the end of the show, we'll summarize those.
3:49Doug will give one more, and then I'll give two final ones.
3:53So, I'm still giving three sides, and we'll have six total, including the five from Doug and I that will go into the contest.
4:02And we're not using any stale lines. We're using all current lines from DraftKings.
4:07Doug, thank you for having the only winner on our sides last week with the Jets.
4:13Really? Rocking chair winner. I had a rough week, side-wise, good week, total-wise.
4:18The Texans, it was a coin flip game. Probably shouldn't have bet it, but...
4:23Oh, for sure. There was four fumbles in the game.
4:26They all went to the Bills. Lasseter drops that pick.
4:30Easily could have went either way, but Josh Allen was incredible.
4:34We'll talk about him in just a moment. And then, I did not expect the Panthers to not cover with scoring 37 points.
4:42Yet, although not even coming close. The Bears got their...
4:46The Bears defense was atrocious, but they got their turnovers and their offense could not be stopped.
4:52So, tough week for me, sidewise. Time to get back on track this week.
4:57How's your week one go? You know, very frustrating because I started strong with the Jets, but to be fair, you were
5:05on them too, so you liked them as well.
5:08Just really annoying that the Eagles up 17-3 in the second quarter just kind of hit a wall, so to speak, and
5:16then the backdoor cover by Washington, and then the Cowboys laid that egg, and even with all the drops and everything, end
5:24of the first half, just horrendous timeout usage by Schottenheimer.
5:28So, really frustrating, but them, the breaks, and I said, like, I'm not really a huge sort of volume guy week one, week two, even maybe week three.
5:38We'll see. I mean, it's all about spots. I do like more on the card this week than I did last week,
5:46but you just, these teams treat this like preseason, right?
5:50Week one is such a crapshoot because it's such a long haul and there's only one buy in each conference.
5:57I swear, these NFL teams treat this almost like NBA load management.
6:01They just ease into the season. Yeah, week one is always one of the toughest weeks for me and I think for
6:09a lot of bettors, but we, and you learn a lot about what the new NFL season is going to look like.
6:17It's the old school football's back, the under center revolution.
6:2143% under center snaps. First and 10 under center 66% of the time.
6:26That was 45% week one last year. The biggest movers, so the teams that went under center the most relative to what they did last year.
6:35Well, most of them did well. The Raiders, the Jets, the Giants, the Chiefs, the Jags, the Ravens, the Falcons, the Cardinals, the Lions, and the Commanders.
6:45Those are the teams that all increased their under center snap rate the most.
6:50Why is that important? normal just allows that you can marry that with 13 personnel, which was way up.
6:57I mean, the Bills used it 40% of the time.
7:01Fullbacks on the field, 12.5% of snaps. That was about seven last year in week one.
7:07It puts the defense more in conflict. Play action is more effective, and it just enables you so much more flexibility in today's NFL.
7:15NFL we're seeing like an old school NFL trend will just overtake the league right now.
7:21So like a lot of these offenses look a lot different, and that was one of the things that I definitely noticed the most.
7:30What do you think caused it? Was it just sort of a copycat league and it started to happen in the preseason
7:38and other teams saw it on film? Or how did this realization occur?
7:42Well, I think it's just the so everything was like spread 11 personnel and, you know, defenses have started to adjust, right?
7:50And then you have all like the Fangio, McDonald defenses, the too high shell revolution to take away like explosive plays.
7:58So I think and it's always a cat and mouse game between offenses and defenses.
8:04So I think the next step was, you know, you saw some of what McVay was doing, last year with the 13 personnel, heavier personnel.
8:13It's also why defenses want to find like a nickel that can stay on the field that can defend both the pass
8:21and the run becoming more and more important, becoming almost like a first round draft pick type of position.
8:28But now these defenses against lighter boxes, against more too high safeties, go heavier, go under center, make a safety come down,
8:36then off play action, that's where you're going to get your explosive plays.
8:40So I think it's just that the football is cyclical, NFL is cyclical, and this is just the natural next evolution, so it's pretty fascinating.
8:49We'll keep tabs on that throughout the year. Moving on to week two, I always call it overreaction week.
8:56Now, you want to be selective in, which is difficult, but you want to be selective in what you react to, and
9:04you don't want to just say nothing matters, right?
9:08So you have to pick and choose, okay, I really believe in what I saw last week, or this was kind of
9:15fluky, and I'm not going to overreact to what I just saw.
9:20And if you just look at the numbers historically, I'll give one example, I'll sprinkle in a few throughout the show.
9:27Road teams off of a double-digit loss. So who wants to play a road team that they just saw get dominated?
9:35Right. 48 and 26 against the spread since 2003, 65%.
9:39If you wanted to play those teams this week, here's who you'd have the back.
9:44It just shows you why it's tough to pull in some of these.
9:49Browns, Panthers. Panthers may be a little easier. We'll get to that because of the Falcons quarterback situation.
9:55But Colts, Dolphins, and Packers. So some of those teams, it's like, oof.
10:00But historically, you're at about a 65% clip since 2003.
10:04It doesn't mean to be predicted moving forward. But a lot of times it's like, oh, this team got blown out.
10:11I want nothing to do with them. But you got to remember, it's just one week.
10:17And if this result happened, the result that we saw last week when the team looked really bad, if that happened in
10:25week 13, we would just chalk it up to being an outlier.
10:30So there's going to be some outliers. And to your point, the opponent saw it too.
10:35So how much are they going to get up for this opponent after a big, fulfilling week one start or whatever?
10:43Yeah, and when you do look that bad in week one, sometimes it's, hey, we have new schemes, we have a new coordinator, new play caller, right?
10:53So maybe there's just some growing pains. There's also no one's playing in preseason.
10:58But it soon. And then in week two, you see a completely different look that the defense might not be prepared for.
11:06So there's a lot of that as well. But let's dive into this card.
11:11Let's start with Thursday night football. Thursday night football!
11:14We got a good one between the Bills and the Lions.
11:18The Bills will open their new stadium. The last time these two teams played, the Bills won 48-42 in an absolute shootout.
11:26Josh Allen was incredible. The Bills at DraftKings, are a four-and-a-half point favorite.
11:31Total, a sky-high 54-and-a-half. Doug, what are you seeing here on Thursday night football?
11:36Yeah, a lot of trends involved here, but I think the biggest thing, and that's why sharp money came in right away
11:44on Sunday night on Buffalo to push this from three-and-a-half to four-and-a-half.
11:48It's not a huge number. The four is kind of dead.
11:52Maybe five is dead. Four is sort of irrelevant, just given the two-point conversions and the how frequently we see them, but
12:00it's the short turnaround for a team that played essentially five quarters, you know, the lengthy overtime, and then the, but it's Buffalo with the new stadium.
12:10I will say this, okay, this is interesting. There's concern about the turf.
12:15They had to rip it up three weeks ago.
12:18Players were slipping, and it kind of just reminded me of that Super Bowl, the first Philly's, sorry, Philly-KC Super Bowl in
12:26Arizona when everyone was following around, it was a shootout, and that was the one that was decided by the holding call and the walk-off field goal.
12:36So I almost wonder like alt-overs are a play.
12:39Just if it is this slippery and we have this outlier outcome, then maybe take an alt-over and just kind of see
12:47if you can play with it in that regard and maybe even some props.
12:52Because I do like Buffalo quite a bit in this game.
12:56I think they roll them. I'm not in love with Detroit like everyone else is over the last couple years.
13:04Sure, I root for them. It's a great underdog story in Dan Camp.
13:08I think they're limited. And I will say, you know, you mentioned trends.
13:13Teams that fail to cover in week one like Detroit and enter week two as a dog have been really strong over the last decade plus.
13:2326, 11, and 2. So it's kind of that overreaction to Buffalo who played great.
13:28I still think there'll be a time to fade Buffalo, maybe even next week.
13:33But I think because of the stadium and everything, I do want to ride them and I've never been a big Jared Goff guy.
13:42Yeah, short week on the if there is some slippage, yeah, we saw that.
13:47Remember the Brazil game? Yes. Eagles, Packers, we saw that and I think it's obviously an advantage to the offense if that's the case.
13:56But yeah, one of the reasons, there's a couple reasons why the Bills took so much money.
14:02One, they looked incredible. Two, the Lions had a very underwhelming second half and their offense just didn't look as potent as it has in the past.
14:12mean, they only averaged what I think 5.4 yards per pass play and their offense pretty much died in the second half of that game.
14:21They got fortunate that there was that fumble call that the Lions are coming off of an overtime game on a short week on the road.
14:30Historically 6-19 against the spread. Teams in that spot doesn't happen often but teams have not fared well in those circumstances and
14:38then you throw in the Lions injuries they have multiple injuries on the offensive line they are pretty much going to be
14:46without three of their about a month ago three of their guys they thought were going to be starting on the offensive
14:54line are going to be out because Mahogany is they used they a ton of 13 personnel 40 last year was 5
15:02never more than 15 in any one game and they're playing fast they just unleashed Allen with that great offensive line DJ
15:10Moore now bonafide deep threat looks like that investment was worth it the bills averaged 9.6 yards per first down the highest
15:18explosive play rate in the league against arguably the best defense in the league last week was their highest explosive play rate
15:26of any game in the past three years now I will say the Bills defense is still a problem there I was
15:34impressed with Greg Russo Deion Walker some of their defensive linemen who were going going a different scheme but the back end
15:42is still a problem the linebacker room just in coverage I mean the Texans did whatever they wanted through the air so
15:50and they easily could have won that game if not for a couple four spot what this Bills offense did last week
15:58and what I expect them to keep doing just like unleashing Allen against a very shaky lines defense I think it's Bills
16:06or nothing here good money line parlay piece too if you're looking for one Evan one thing I talked to an odds
16:14maker and I said what do you got early action really sharp book and most notable thing he gave me the over
16:22in that game so maybe the Lions offense can click and you mentioned the defense didn't look great in the second half
16:30and I would agree so I only 24 pretty low for what you would expect from him he said he recognized that
16:38the Texans were getting the ball out quick and he wanted to back off play more coverage there's but anything in that
16:46department yeah absolutely crazy I tweeted this out earlier highest total for a game where both teams are on short rest since
16:542022 and if you go back to 2012 only nine games a total this high both teams on short rest of course
17:02because this is how it works 9 and 0 to the under in those games so good luck if you're going it
17:10was like 50 51 52 very close so margins are tight but kind of fascinating nonetheless all right good stuff there yeah
17:18I think the look is the bills Doug you like the over and you like can can I give you one more
17:26thing here just the Saints so the Saints and Lions game that went to overtime the one factor that I think is
17:34kind of interesting is the fact that the Saints offense for 85 plays we haven't seen that in like a decade so
17:42that should be an interesting factor like second half for Detroit's defense yeah and we know how good the bills are in
17:50second halves so yeah we could see them extend after halftime Doug you and you like Kincaid overs here I do look
17:58he had a monster game six targets but when you have new offense you got to look at what the tendencies are
18:06early and often and that's where Josh Allen was going and obviously he's an MVP type player he's going to hit the
18:14open guy and he's going to have his tendencies and I just think it's what works and what Evan was saying I
18:22can Kinkade so I think it's a really low number in terms of receiving yards it's one of those things you ask
18:30yourself with all these wagers will I be shocked if Kinkade is not part of a shootout when there's potential for the
18:38turf to be slippery for the defense I'd be legit stunned so I'm going to be maybe even laddering Kinkade as well
18:46yeah he was on the field for 75% of snaps way up from last year even if you look at his healthy
18:54games and now they used 13 personnel 3 tight ends 40% of the time when they're using multiple tight ends he's basically
19:02their wide receiver too and it's DJ Moore your deep threat Kinkade is going to get a ton of looks and when
19:10they go to 11 personnel they bring in Shakir for the slot but he's going to be on the field it looks
19:18like a ton which I think is a great thing he's to get to game versus in this case I think he's
19:26going to have a full week of practice right I'm not expecting Kyler Murray to go so I think it's going to
19:34be much more conducive the play calling will be conducive to his strengths and what he wants to do but in terms
19:42of those trends road dogs between one and six and a half so under a touchdown right they're 44 and 17 against
19:50the spread over the last decade in week two I just think it's one of those things where Chicago is getting a
19:58little too much love and I still think their defense gave up looked horrible and I Williams maybe he's got some bad
20:06habits of trying to extend plays too much in the pocket and go off script I think it's just a way where
20:14they're going to keep this inside the number yeah this is the way I would look the Bears offense they put up
20:22for what it's worth they put up 59 points teams off in those games 57 and a half percent but I mean
20:30you look the Bears defense is really really bad so it's hard to ask them to win by margin yeah they did
20:38it last week but there was what a muff punt there was a roughing the passer a there was a number of
20:46different plays like I move Cam Lewis to the slot Malik Muhammad maybe for Tyreek Stevenson but even Jalen Johnson looked like
20:54completely washed out there like there's not much hope for this defense I I'm still shocked they didn't trade for an edge
21:02rusher so you're going to be able to move the ball on this team small sample size but teams who score at
21:10least 40 and win by over 20 in week the line jumped two points and part of that is one of the
21:18reasons you mentioned score over 40 win by 20 a lot of people are like number one the market reacts to that
21:26no one wants to fade that team that looks so good but here's like is there really a big I'm struggling with
21:34this but is there and chance Murray plays it's slim but is there really a big difference between Wentz and Murray right
21:42now I mean Murray didn't look probably not yeah I mean look Wentz knows has been in the system right has played
21:50under O'Connell Murray it's like a different looking offense with Murray so I mean if you look since the start of last
21:58year Wentz ranks 19th in EPA per play among 40 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks that's better than Kyler Murray one
22:06spot behind Caleb Williams for what it's worth and what they did but their offense definitely looked better in the second half
22:14when we talked about this to start the show O'Connell went more under center more play action more multi tight end looks
22:22which I think all can work against the Bears because it was like Murray and shotgun and that's just like not where
22:30the league is heading it's a different looking offense and Murray just didn't look comfortable yet it's probably going to take him
22:38some time so I don't know I could argue that Wentz he's hard to gauge because sometimes you see him and you're
22:46like oh but then like last week he was made all the throws he needed to and looked better than I thought
22:54Murray did early on so I don't know if it's that much of a there's a chance the Bears are just that
23:02good but there's a chance you can lose any wager in the NFL so I think there's a line value here and
23:10I think the spot as much as a spot can be it's worth I mean Brian Flores blitzed 83% of the time
23:18last week he's the second highest ever Wink Martindale against the 49ers in 2023 at the highest rate but he's faced Caleb
23:26Williams has faced Flores four times twice in his rookie year he threw for 340 yards with two touchdowns in his first
23:34ever game against Flores in his rookie year when Iber was the coach week 15 that year it was ugly but the
23:42more relevant sample size is his second year when he was much better at avoiding sacks better against the blitz in his
23:50second year first under Ben Johnson week one they lost 27 24 on Monday night football he went 13 to 16 for
23:58112 yards in the first half they led 17 to 6 and Flores got the better of him in the second half
24:06and then in week 11 his only win versus Flores he was pretty ugly 16 of 32 for 192 yards and that
24:14was with Ben Johnson later in Flores can the Bears are going to hit some explosive plays they're going to have success
24:22running it it's Ben Johnson but I think Flores can get enough stops schematically and the Vikings can move anyone on the
24:30Bears I think this line is a little too high a little bit too much of an overreaction to the downgrade from
24:38Murray to Wentz and from what the Bears did last week offensively against the Panthers their defense was completely lost we'll get
24:46to them for my favorite my first favorite bet and I'm going to go with the Denver Broncos minus two and a
24:54half I look this was sitting at three it ticked down I still think it should be three the Jaguars have looked
25:02great last week but they played the Browns the Browns don't have a functioning NFL quarterback their defense has major holes and
25:10has taken a big step back without Miles Garrett the Jags are 9-0 their last nine regular season games both straight up
25:18and against the spread but they've played the Browns with Watson the Chargers with zero offensive line they beat Arizona in overtime
25:26Tennessee Indy with Riley Leonard the Jets with Brady Cook the Colts with Rivers the Titans again with Brandon Allen and then
25:34their one good win over that stretch was against Denver where the offense cooked they got some turnover luck in that game
25:42there was a missed field goal by Denver but their offense definitely shredded I love Liam Cohen but after that I mean
25:49I just think we're at the top coach of all time against the spread after lost 61 37 and 62 covering by
25:57about four points per game only coach better Bill Belichick even better as a favor to he's 37 21 against the spread
26:0565 so the Broncos defense the Broncos were a mess last week their defense just couldn't tackle so do I think that
26:13they suddenly they suddenly forgot how to tackle I don't think so I mean Mahomes the Chiefs had 248 missed tackle yards
26:21that is the most in NFL history a 30% missed tackle rate the third highest ever I mean look the Denver defense
26:29like I said 18 total air yards they ranked second in I still expect them to be one of the better defensive
26:37units in the NFL and it was the first time calling plays for Davis Webb right I think that's I think that's
26:45the wrinkle that you have to factor into your handicap the most I'm not even almost not even the missed tackles that
26:53would be number two for me I think it's does Peyton get more involved is Webb growing pains is it going to
27:01take another week or more I think that's the concern no yeah I'm expecting Peyton to get heavily involved here he was
27:09asked at halftime what do you think about not calling plays he said ask me after the second half well the second
27:17half didn't go much better so yeah I expect him to get heavily involved here I to the Broncos they have a
27:25very high floor high ceiling defense and I think Peyton is going to get involved here and I think we're just at
27:33the top of the market on the Jags we're getting the Broncos in a good spot revenge from that loss last year
27:41too so give me the Broncos to get it done at home laying under a field goal Evan who are looking at
27:49so I'm kind of taking the same approach that you are I'm just flipping it I like the Colts plus six and
27:57a half right now Sunday night football in Kansas City I think you kind of laid out the entire reason why you
28:05might want to go the opposite direction of Kansas City considering the missed tackles like all the fortunate things that went their
28:13at it doesn't matter the way throwing down field to me it's going to be different this week when you're facing the
28:21Colts defense that obviously should be motivated based how bad they played against Baltimore and obviously a terrible performance but I do
28:29think a little bit of extra time I think Daniel Jones should look better in week two also some injuries on Casey's
28:37defense you guys talked about the dogs in week two I mean 7 and 9 ATS last year but if you go
28:4513 to the last 14 years 500 ATS are better in week two so it is a bit of an overreaction week
28:53so and also I tweeted it 30 and now but I'll take the 7 6 and a half whatever yeah they're home
29:01unders I mean the past five years right there 27 and 8 77 chiefs home unders part of that is they're really
29:09really really really good and this can help a dog at running the clock down at the end of the game and
29:17bleeding it all out without scoring so like a lot of other teams if you're up say you're up 6 with 5
29:25to go and you drive down the field but you can't run it all the way out you end up kicking a
29:33field goal the other team gets the ball back they're down nine they scored the touchdown against your pre-event right that's 10
29:41extra points at the very end of I was I like the Colts too I'm just worried that their defense is that
29:49bad remember all the overs they had beginning of last year when Daniel Jones I think it's just going to take time
29:57for Mahomes to get 18 yards him and Cooper Rush were the only two quarterbacks without a Negative 12% completion percentage over expectation.
30:06He was not sharp. He missed a ton of throws.
30:09He had that really bad interception. So this offense, it's just going to be like lean on Walker.
30:16Now once Mahomes gets right, their offensive line gets healthy, you can see the picture, right?
30:22It's everything else where the NFL is going, right?
30:25Run game, run game, set up the play action.
30:28Then finally you can maybe have some explosiveness down the field with this offense.
30:33Yeah, I worry about what the Colts is that their offense, is bad, bad.
30:38I mean right now because Daniel Jones is not healthy.
30:42He can't move. And Steichen needs a mobile quarterback.
30:45Jones needs to be able to move. I mean watching him run for a first down, which he barely got last week,
30:53it looked like he was running with cement shoes.
30:56He also can't push off I don't think as well for this deep ball due to his Achilles injury.
31:03So like he's not the same quarterback. I had 5.9 air yards per attempt last week.
31:09It was eight last year. And they were playing from behind the entire game.
31:14Alec Pierce is not fully healthy. He's not a full go yet.
31:19So like there's not – they're so relying on Keenan Allen right now.
31:23So I think it's going to be a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor.
31:28But you mentioned the Chiefs injuries on defense. I think it was just like a Spags master class last week.
31:35So I think the Colts can move the ball some.
31:39But this is going to be like – we're talking about old school football.
31:44This is going to be like Kenneth Walker, a lot of Kenneth Walker, a lot of Jonathan Taylor, which lends itself to another underlook in Kansas City.
31:54And then I would agree, Evan, especially at seven.
31:57The only way I could look is the Colts.
32:00But definitely concerned about their offense and their defense outside a corner.
32:05Like there's questions. And there's a lot of new guys.
32:08So we'll see if Anarumo can get it together this week.
32:12There's a lot of new guys and young guys.
32:16They were so out of place last week against the Ravens.
32:20So our first three picks of the six-pack, Broncos minus 2.5, Vikings plus 4.5, and the Colts plus 7.
32:27All right, before we move on, I'll throw it for a quick word on our sponsor, DraftKings.
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33:18DraftKings, the crown is yours. Let's hit some of these other games.
33:22We'll do the marquee 1 o'clock game. Bengals-Texans. Texans 2.5 point home favorite.
33:27Total 46.5. Texans offense did look a lot better last week.
33:31The addition of David Montgomery, the offensive line looked improved.
33:35But maybe some of that was the Bills defense.
33:38But you had to be, if you're a Texans fan, you had to at least just be a little bit more optimistic
33:46about where this offense can take you. It was the defense that really let them down last week.
33:52But maybe that's just Josh Allen being Superman. On a down-to-down basis, they weren't bad.
33:58It was just explosives that Allen hit. But Bengals, meanwhile, they did get the cover, but they gained 22 points, expected points, off of turnovers.
34:07Just Baker turnovers and fumbles. So they were definitely fortunate in that department.
34:12I do think that their defense is a little bit improved, but they're not going to get that fortunate every week.
34:19This is a fascinating game. Burrow has been amazing as an underdog in his career.
34:25Doug, are you seeing anything here? Yeah, I like Houston at two and a half.
34:30I really like their team total over. Obviously, so I would think it's the best bet on the board.
34:37But I think this is Cincinnati's best O-line since having under the Burrow regime.
34:42I mean, they only allowed seven pressures on 37 dropbacks to a Tampa Bay front.
34:48I think that's pretty good, right? Like all things considered.
34:51So, yes, the fumbles are misleading in terms of what the actual matchup was.
34:56But I think the defense was pathetic. They allowed 65% success rate to Tampa Bay offense.
35:02I was impressed, like you said, with Houston's offense.
35:05I think the Texans team total is probably a really good bet.
35:10Because if the defense gets to Burrow, then they're going to force turnovers and do what the Texans defense does.
35:17And there's a lot to be encouraged with the offense.
35:21And going against a Cincinnati D, I think, obviously, Montgomery's probably the new running back, right?
35:26I just think it was explosive by Josh Allen that made the defense look susceptible.
35:32So I'm in on Houston, and I'm in on Houston to score points.
35:37Yeah, I mean, it is pretty telling that the Buffalo was that – Josh Allen was that good.
35:43And the Texans still had a chance to win the game, even after four fumbles.
35:49And wasn't there a review on a spot that they changed that they really should have been call stands?
35:55I think there was – Yeah, and then Lasseter drops a wide-open interception in the end zone.
36:02That's right. That's right. 99 out of 100 times.
36:05But for what's right, Joe Burrow is 17-6 against the spread as an underdog of 2.5 points or more.
36:12He has been good in this role. So he went under center – That's why I like the team total is he's so good.
36:21Like his ceiling is like MVP type. So if the O-line is actually good, which it might be, or at least serviceable,
36:29I don't want to necessarily fade him specifically, but I want to fade the Bengals' defense.
36:34And a must-win, almost a virtual must-win for Houston.
36:38Yeah. Although they started 0-3 last year, so maybe not.
36:41Yeah, that's true. But the schedule – they can't get too far behind in the AFC.
36:47Yeah, it's not a real division. They have a real division now.
36:51Yeah. Burrow went under center in the first half a lot more.
36:56There was a lot of talk about that. But in the second half, they kind of went back to what they were
37:04doing in the past with more shotgun. Curious to see what that split looks like this week.
37:10But this is a more standard-looking offense than what Houston saw last week with like the 13 personnel 40% of the time,
37:18with Josh Allen like creating explosives out of the pocket.
37:22Like this is going to be Burrow in a more traditional formation, like which the Texans match up so well against.
37:29So I do think it's a better matchup for the Texans' defense.
37:34You'd expect them to be salty after getting embarrassed at home last week.
37:38So, yeah, under three, I'd lean Texans. But I also think the Bengals are a good teaser piece.
37:45I don't think that they're going to get blown out here.
37:49It's really hard to blow out Burrow and that offense.
37:52Let's move on to the marquee four o'clock game.
37:56Commanders-Cowboys. Cowboys are out to a four-point favorite after a pretty disappointing effort, especially on the defensive end.
38:02Look, I had high hopes. And I thought that the Cowboys can get to a league average defense, which is all they
38:10need to do to like unlock their ceiling. But I didn't think it was going to be great right away.
38:18I didn't think it would be that poor. So it's not all hope is not lost for the Dallas defense and Christian Parker this year.
38:27But it definitely wasn't pretty. They – But at times it was.
38:31Like they forced the turnovers or the potential turnovers with Scataboo at late, fumbling.
38:36It was just like the running back out of the backfield.
38:40Like the basic stuff. This was Tecmo Bowl stuff.
38:43You know, you just had to pick a few plays.
38:47Yeah, they were running. The Giants were running. They did some good things.
38:52They did some good things. The game was 7-7.
38:55They had the ball before halftime. And Schottenheimer's an idiot and used that timeout on third down, before third down with like 58 seconds.
39:04It's a complete moron. Some of these coaches don't know what they're doing.
39:08I'll get into McCarthy later. He's a complete idiot.
39:12But if Schottenheimer doesn't call that timeout and they don't get it, they punt, you know, assuming the – because Dak on
39:20the next play through that interception, that changed the entire game.
39:24So it's like even as badly as they played, they could have won.
39:28Yeah. I mean, the Giants scored a touchdown on every single red zone trip.
39:33But there was just – Drops. I mean – Yeah, a couple things that stood out.
39:39I mean, the Cowboys' offense was fine. Yeah. Both offenses just moved up and down the field.
39:45But the Giants had a really good game plan.
39:49I don't necessarily think that the Cowboys were ready for it.
39:53But their linebackers are too small. And, you know, like against a power running attack when, you know, with the Giants going
40:01heavier with a running quarterback, that showed that weakness.
40:04And then, yeah, there was just miscommunication. Like they forced – they want to force stuff because they went too high.
40:12But you need linebackers to defend their own, which I'm not sure that they have.
40:17And they would force a lot of stuff to the flats.
40:21But, like, people weren't rallying for the ball, and there was a lot of miscommunication.
40:27So, like, brand new defense, brand new coordinator, that happens.
40:30But now you have injured – overshown is out.
40:33Hooker is out. Your safety. So there's injuries to that defense as well.
40:38And the question is, how long is it going to take for this Dallas defense to get things sorted out on a
40:46down-to-down basis and get that communication right? It might take some time.
40:50Washington, meanwhile, gets the cover against Philadelphia late. I thought Daniels played well, just, like, finding ways to move the ball, buying
40:58time in the pocket, using his legs when needed.
41:02The defense was better than last year. It's hard not to be.
41:06They were definitely, like – you could tell that they were faster and younger.
41:11Last year they were just so slow. And they caused some issues for the Eagles, but part of that could be some Eagles offensive growing pains.
41:21We'll get to that. So this is a super fascinating game.
41:25I just – look, the Cowboys offense, the Washington secondaire doesn't really stand a chance here.
41:30So the Cowboys offense is going to cook. They just destroy at home.
41:35But with the issues on defense, it's similar to, like, the Bears.
41:40I don't want to lay over a field goal with them right now, especially with some injuries.
41:46It was interesting to see the commanders. Durante Jones, their new defensive coordinator, a Flores disciple.
41:52I said Flores blitzed at 80-something percent. The second highest was Jones and the commanders, and I think that makes sense.
41:59They don't have the personnel blitz. Right. The front seven was good.
42:04The front seven did their job. 50% of the time.
42:07And shut down the Eagles' rush attack. For what it's worth, small road dogs under seven off of a week one loss.
42:1547-29-3 against the spread, 62% since 2003. 28-12, 70% over the past 10 years.
42:20But you got the DAC home ATS within the division over the last decade.
42:2517-4. Yeah. I could see a case for either side here.
42:29There's trends to back up either one as well.
42:33I wanted to bet Dallas, but with some of the defensive injuries, with how they looked last week, I just need to
42:41see a little bit more before I'm running to bet them.
42:45Yeah, I mean. Four-point favor, meeting the winning by margin.
42:48To your point, like, Giants should get a lot of credit for last week too, right?
42:54At home, Sunday night, I guess Harbaugh gave some speech in the locker.
42:59You know, they were just reflected a month's. It looked like a team that had been connected and practiced well for the last month.
43:07Like, they just were competent. And they may be sort of like an actual good team.
43:13I think they can win the division. So, I'm curious.
43:17It's funny that you say you like the Cowboys.
43:20Like, the Cowboys' bet would be similar to maybe the Broncos, right?
43:25Yeah. But I'm not. Shorter number. Bigger number. Sure.
43:28I don't. Like, laying four, I need Dallas to win by, you know, then there's going to be.
43:34Jayden Daniels easily get in the back door if needed.
43:38And, like, I just don't. I can't lay four.
43:41Or, like, I'd have to make this, like, seven to feel comfortable doing it.
43:46And I just don't right now. All right. Let's move on to my favorite segment of the week.
43:53And it's the Ravens game of the week when I filibuster about my thoughts on the game.
43:59Let the filibustering begin. Last week, we went over.
44:02That was a no-sweat winner. This week, we're flipping the script.
44:06Going under. Under 47. Some 47s out there. Key number.
44:10Make sure you shop around as always. Ravens, by the way, the eight and a half, nine-point favorites.
44:16So, why did I love the over last week and the under this week?
44:22Well, I mean, look. Last week, it was almost the same exact number against what I think is a worst Colts defense indoors.
44:30And there was, like, the element of surprise with the Ravens offense.
44:34And the Ravens had a healthy wide receiver room.
44:38The big thing here is Zay Flowers, I don't think, is going to play.
44:43And Jacoby Lane went on IR. So, now Rashad Bateman is your number one receiver.
44:48This offense, you could see it last week. Once Flowers left, the explosiveness went way down.
44:54And this offense became much easier to defend. I love some of the stuff that Declan Doyle did.
45:00Lamar looked great going under center. The offensive line still had some issues in the interior.
45:06Gwyn did not have a great day pass blocking.
45:10So, I just don't – look. The offense, without Flowers, without Lane, it's just not as explosive.
45:16It's going to be more running. It's going to be more methodical.
45:20And then on the other side, you have the Saints defense, which this is – where having Sanker as your big nickel can be huge.
45:29Because I expect the Ravens to go more multi-tight end sets.
45:33Sanker can stay on the field, defend the run, defend the tight ends in coverage.
45:39And Staley, he's very good defending play action. They were very good against the run last year.
45:45I think their defense can hold up. Very underrated defense.
45:48And he started to figure out things in the second half of last year.
45:53Tyler Shuck really turned it on in the second half last week.
45:58But they were the worst offense in the NFL in the first half.
46:03And then they went like – and they're going to go fast.
46:07That's one of the things I don't like about this under.
46:11But they really just wore down the lines. And the lines are a bad defense right now.
46:17Now, I love what I saw from Jesse Minter.
46:20You know he's going to take away the explosive plays.
46:24They can play a light box here against the – this isn't Jonathan Taylor.
46:29You can play a light box against the Saints rushing attack.
46:33Tyler Shuck, I think, is going to be confused at times.
46:37Minter's going to throw a lot out. And I loved what I saw from the Ravens defense.
46:43I had questions. But seeing that performance right out of the gate, just everyone was flying to the ball, looked like they
46:51knew exactly where they had to be. So I think that they're going to be able to shut down the Saints offense.
46:59I mean, look, the Saints offense basically had 200 yards after the fourth down conversion.
47:05So it was like 28-21. It was fourth and 12.
47:08If they don't get it, the game is over.
47:12From that point on, they added 200 yards of offense, which is insane.
47:16So if that game ended there, they have 200 fewer yards of offense.
47:21And like I said, the Saints defense last week gave up a ton of points, but they only allowed 5.3 yards per attempt.
47:29That's the lowest for the Lions in the opener, I think, in 15 years.
47:34And the Lions just scored five touchdowns on five red zone trips.
47:39So I like the Saints defense. I like Sanker playing that big nickel in this particular matchup.
47:45I think both defenses are going to take away the explosive play.
47:49And then the kicker is just no lane, no flowers.
47:53And then I think Matabuke might be back. And he changes the complexion of that front for the Ravens.
48:00So give me the under here. I think the line is fair.
48:04I mean, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the Saints just saying, like, look, there's no – the receivers aren't there for the Ravens this week.
48:14And it's going to be, like, Bateman and maybe Surratt.
48:17But I'm so – The spot is terrible. We talked about overtime and those teams now.
48:23Any concern – I mean, it's a different regime except for Lamar.
48:28But any concern, like, some of the eggs that Baltimore has laid in week two in the past after a big week one wins?
48:36That's fair. I mean, I remember the Raiders game they lost.
48:40Yeah, they've blown some leads. Right. They lost to Gardner Minshew, I think, in there.
48:46That may not have been week two, though. Yeah, I think it was.
48:50But – Okay. Yeah, I'm looking at the – I'm looking at the Ravens.
48:56Was it the Lions game when they hit the crossbar on the field goal?
49:01Yep. I'm looking at the Ravens injury report. Matabuke is limited today.
49:05But also, Ronnie Stanley didn't practice. John Simpson didn't practice.
49:09That's two of their starting offensive linemen. Trey Henderson also didn't practice.
49:13He was a finger. I think he should be okay.
49:17But, yeah, this is – But Flowers didn't practice with hamstring.
49:21And you just don't play him in this game.
49:24Like a hamstring injury, you don't mess with that.
49:27I think they set him. So I should say there was a chance he plays.
49:33But I like the under here. Do you have anything here, Doug?
49:37No. I mean, look, I think you can make a case for both sides.
49:42I worry that the Saints just don't have the juice for this game off the marathon game last week.
49:49I will say there's the trend that, like, first half Ravens would be a really good bet just for a New Orleans
49:57team coming off overtime in week one. It's worth mentioning.
50:01Yeah. Lamar is a cash cow in the first half, and he's a cash cow against these NFC teams.
50:07Just – I think it takes some of these teams that aren't used to seeing him and, like, his speed and his
50:15elusiveness and his ability to get outside the pocket.
50:19But I think the Saints are approaching this right.
50:22They're going to play a lot of two-high. They're saying, like, look, we're not going to go after Lamar.
50:29We just have to contain him. So I think that's what you have to do here, especially with the lack of receivers on the outside.
50:38You have to pass rush with integrity, maintain your lane.
50:42So they're at least saying all the right things.
50:45Evan, curious, teams – both these teams scored over 30 last week.
50:49Anything with, like, an under in week two with teams scoring over 30 or just in general?
50:55Honestly, both teams going 30 going into week two is basically a 50-50 proposition.
51:00The only thing I'll say is that the total is under 47, and it ticks up, like, 3%.
51:07It's, like, 53%, 54% if you take the over on 46.5 or less because 47 is so key.
51:14So there is a small little tick up there.
51:17The one other thing that I put in my primer that I always been tracking is Saints early since the start of last year.
51:260-15-3 first quarter money line. 2-16 first quarter ATS.
51:29They have just not – they're down 7-0 last week.
51:32So we'll see how that looks. Down 21-0. So you have all the more early trends and all the Saints early trends
51:40are, like, flashing for Ravens first half play. Interesting.
51:44All right, let's move on to the grossest betting game of the week.
51:48Mmm, what's that smell? It stinks. What do you mean?
51:52This trash. The sweet, sweet trash. The trash is a gold mine.
51:56Gold mine. Gold mine. A couple candidates here. But we'll go with Browns, Bucs, the Baker revenge game, playing his old team.
52:04Tampa looking to bounce back this week after a loss last week.
52:09There are – I could give you about 50 trends.
52:12Bucs, by the way, 8.5 point favorites. Total sitting at 41.5.
52:16I can give you about 50 trends that back up why the Browns are a good player based on historical against the spot numbers.
52:25But, I mean, like week two 0-1 teams, when they play each other, the dogs are about like 65% historically.
52:32That's Browns, Falcons, and Commanders. I could give you 20 of them.
52:37I'm not playing the Browns. I think I'm going to lay it with the Bucs.
52:42I really think the Browns are that bad. Watson is just not a functional quarterback.
52:48Yeah, he's not. And that's the outlier. Last year the Jets didn't have a quarterback complete a forward pass.
52:55And I think that skews all these betting trends because the market can be stubborn.
53:00In college, you get these numbers. Like some of these favorites can go from 9 to 13.5 if the steam comes from the sharp groups.
53:09In the NFL, we don't see a lot. But sometimes you have situations where the quarterback or the team is just that gross.
53:17And I think that's the case here in Cleveland, at least for this week.
53:23Because Watson had the worst EPA per play last year.
53:26He wasn't even blitzed. He had 10 dropbacks last week.
53:30I think they're just – look, they would cut him if it wasn't worse against the cap to do so.
53:37And they're playing him because of an edict from upstairs.
53:41And he's not the best quarterback on the team.
53:44They're just terrible. And yes, to the Jaguars are pretty good.
53:48The defense has holes now. No Gary. I mean, the Jaguars are good in some of that.
53:54But it's also a tough spot. Back-to-back games in Florida.
53:58And the Bucs off that loss. You said Baker gets motivated.
54:02Now they have failed to cover. What is it?
54:0510 straight? 10 and a row. I always am like, will I hate myself if I lose this wager?
54:12Will I feel dumb, right? Like laying chalk, all that stuff.
54:16I think it's one of those things I will not feel dumb if I lay it with the Bucs and they don't cover.
54:24Yeah, I like some of the things the Bucs did last week with their new offensive coordinator.
54:30Hunting to replace Cohen. I think they led the league in play action and motion.
54:36So I like some of the things they did there.
54:40Baker, outside of the turnovers, their offense looked really good.
54:43Yeah. And this, I mean, the Browns offensive line is dealing with injuries.
54:48It's Deshaun Watson. It basically just comes down to Deshaun Watson's not function.
54:53I mean, I think he's going to start this week.
54:56And unless by a miracle he wins this game, then he gets benched.
55:01If it goes bad, he gets benched next week.
55:04You can't, I don't think they can trot him out there in front of the home crowd.
55:10So it would just be... I mean, should they go Taylor Green and see what they have with him?
55:17Yeah, just, they just can't go Watson next week.
55:21Right. But they'll probably go Sanders. But yeah, eventually why not throw Taylor Green out there?
55:26So, yeah, I just can't. Look, every year, and the Browns have fit this mold for many of the years.
55:34But almost every year for like 25 years, there's always one team.
55:38There's like one or two teams that are so bad that a lot of Sharps will be, and including myself, I will
55:46just be like, God, this number's too high. But you just...
55:50Right. The market, you just, you're not downgrading some of these teams hard enough.
55:55Yeah, I mean, a decade ago, the Browns, I don't have it in front of me, but they went like, they had
56:03like one win in a two-year span or something like that.
56:07And they covered like four games in 32 games.
56:10It was like four... And they would get bet a lot.
56:14Yeah, totally. And that's okay. But I think if you get these outlier situations, like the Oakland A's this year, the Colorado
56:22Rockies in previous years, like you get these outlier teams that are just that bad in baseball where like the money lines aren't high enough.
56:31I think there are opportunities. I mean, I have a buddy who calls me the betting bully because I'm not afraid to
56:39lay the lumber in some of these situations if the market is just too conditioned not to get away from their usual sort of window.
56:49I think the Browns, at least last week, I mean, again, Jags are good, but sort of the Bucs.
56:55So I think I'm perfectly comfortable. It's a get-right spot for Tampa.
57:00I think they can hammer them. Bucs, very good teaser piece as well.
57:05Total 41 and a half. You can tease them under a field goal.
57:09Hey, our ride's almost here. Are you ready? Just grabbing my shoes.
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58:00and upload speeds for the first half of 2026.
58:04Power Slap 23 is live and free on YouTube on Thursday, September 17th.
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58:20Also on the card is former WWE champion Jake Hager and the debut of former UFC heavyweight Chris Barnett.
58:27You can watch Power Slap 23 for free on Power Slaps YouTube channel.
58:31Thursday, September 17th for the first time from Texas.
58:35Power Slaps biggest card of the year. This is the Dan Levitard Show.
58:39This is Dan Levitard and I've been doing this for more than two decades.
58:44Our show is contagious. It's a little bit addictive.
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58:56Monday through Friday, I show up and talk about sports.
59:00Listen to the Dan Levitard Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever it is that you get your podcasts.
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60:07All right, before we get to some hurry up offense, just in time for football season.
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60:50Super exciting news there. All right, let's get to some hurry up offense, go through some games.
60:57Some of the best of the rest that we're not going to hit on from any of our bets that we like.
61:05Panthers-Falcons. Panthers out to a two and a half point road favorite.
61:09We have no idea the quarterback is going to be for Atlanta.
61:13Panics apparently isn't ready. Tua is not practicing. Panics practiced, I believe, today.
61:18Did he? And so did Cooper Rush. And yeah, Cooper Rush, he's also dealing with a back injury.
61:25There's four options that aren't ruled out here. Jack Strand, who's maybe the best quarterback on the roster.
61:31Right, yeah. Who we just don't know. The Panthers are road favorite here.
61:36They haven't covered a game as a favorite since 2021.
61:40They're 0-9 straight up and against the spread over that stretch.
61:44Their defense was a disaster. But last year, 9-0 ATS off a loss.
61:48Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Carolina. And they annihilated the Falcons in one game last year.
61:54I think they shut them out. Yeah, it was one of the worst, worst games of the season by any team.
62:02I can't, look, Cooper Rush was bad last week.
62:05I mean, basically just everything was, he just basically threw to B.
62:10John Robinson and handed it off to B. John Robinson.
62:13Nothing was downfield. I think he had 20 air yards total.
62:17It was bad. But they outplayed, and he threw a pick six.
62:22But they outplayed the Steelers on a down-to-down basis.
62:25Not sure what that says about the Steelers. I think Pittsburgh's defense should get a lot of credit for Atlanta being that inept on offense.
62:34That's fair. And I thought the defense played okay.
62:37Not that the Rodgers and company is anything special.
62:41But I thought they played better than I thought.
62:44I have to take the points here. If I play, I would have to take the points.
62:50There's a couple things. I want a three. I'm surprised they're favored at all.
62:55So I don't think it's getting a three. I thought it'd be like one Atlanta or something.
63:01I want Jack Strand to get announced as a starter and to go to three and a half, four.
63:08That's my dream scenario. But just too much. The Panthers' defense was so embarrassing last week.
63:14Now, they have some new pieces. They had some rookies that are playing.
63:19They were experimenting with J.C. Horn in the slot some.
63:22The rookies looked really bad. Their new pieces looked out of place in a new scheme.
63:28So it's not going to be that bad all year.
63:32But we'll see what they can fix in a week.
63:35And are the Falcons the team to exploit that?
63:39I don't know. Lindstrom, one of their better offensive linemen, also dealing with a concussion.
63:44So there's a lot of uncertainty here, mainly with the quarterback, the most important position on the field.
63:51But this is getting – I think like with rush, I make it one.
63:56So I would love a three. But if not, the decent teaser piece.
64:01And I would love Strand catching over a field goal.
64:04But not sure we'll get that. Yeah, rookies making their first start, if it is Strand, are great if it's at home.
64:12Like great ATS. It's horrendous if it's on the road.
64:16Yeah, I mean he looked great in the preseason.
64:19Why not? It's pretty funny that's this Falcons quarterback situation.
64:23But like they were – could have won the game last week with their third string quarterback.
64:29I mean the Watt pick six. I mean first of all, oh my God.
64:34McCarthy is such a meathead. He doesn't know what he's doing.
64:38We're going to talk about him next game. But like the fact that he's trying to kick 60 yarders and 55 yarders
64:46when the other team can't even move the ball is just so stupid.
64:51He just doesn't get it. He's a moron. He tries to pretend – like he just doesn't know what he's doing.
64:58It's crazy. Like he's the reason I think in a lot of ways Atlanta was hanging around.
65:04Yeah, I mean in that case you just punt and pin them.
65:09Well, let's talk Patriots Steelers. Patriots a five-point favorite.
65:12Total down to 41.5. Last year, the Steelers went into New England and beat them.
65:1821-14, the Patriots had five turnovers in the game.
65:21The Steelers got pressure on May and he made mistakes.
65:24He was sacked five times. But they had a significant yardage advantage.
65:29And obviously you're not going to win many football games when you have five turnovers.
65:34I will say in fairness to Rodgers in that offense last week, which wasn't great, there were some big drops.
65:41Metcalf had a bunch of drops. There was a missed PI down the field.
65:47So his numbers could have looked better. Yeah, the drop was key.
65:51Yeah, it was a huge drop. So their offense, they could have extended in that game.
65:57One of the biggest things that was evident from the new offense is Rodgers was throwing downfield much more.
66:04Now his numbers are bad. Part of that was, he's not getting any younger, but part of that was the drops.
66:11There was a missed PI. But he threw, he had 8.8 air yards per attempt.
66:17Last year that was under six, which is the lowest in the league.
66:21So they're throwing more downfield. The Patriots offense is going to be without A.J.
66:27Brown here. We have extra time to prepare. I thought they had a really poor game plan against Seattle, like early down runs against that Seattle defense.
66:36I'm curious to see what they come out with here.
66:40McDaniels, with these last two games against Seattle, McDaniels has lost a lot of shine in my book.
66:47Like I would almost say like I was giving him a lot of credit for some of Brady's career.
66:53And he's just been so inept in that game.
66:57I don't know if it's Drake May making mistakes.
67:00For all we know, he's calling a certain play and May is just botching things.
67:05Because obviously May threw that horrendous pick. I don't know what to make of New England.
67:11This line's high. If it were a pick-em, obviously I would take New England.
67:16Last year I was involved in the Patriots in that game with all those fluky turnovers inside the five, a couple of them.
67:25I think it's going to be a rock fight game and the Patriots win.
67:30But the question is, do they cover? I mean, don't forget, Steelers, Atlanta missed two field goals.
67:36I think Pittsburgh missed one, but I think Atlanta missed two.
67:40Yep. I'm going to make a case. I'm going to – this is very, very scary.
67:46You like Pittsburgh, don't you? No. I actually lean New England.
67:50I want to see – But I'm afraid – look, I really like Patrick Graham, the defensive coordinator for Pittsburgh.
67:57And they were – he didn't blitz at all last week.
68:01They blitz like 10% of the time. And you generally don't want to blitz May, especially if you can just get pressure, which the Steelers can without blitzing.
68:11But they were using like three edge looks, like all three of their edge – three of their better players on the field at the same time.
68:21That's how they started the year. They had five linebacker looks with their three edges on the field at the same time a bunch.
68:30But they were going up against Cooper Rush. So what I am worried about with the Steelers is – because I really,
68:38really, really like this defense coming into the year.
68:41But that was assuming their secondary was fully intact.
68:44That means Joey Porter, who – he was at practice today, but I think he's going to get traded.
68:51I'm not sure he's going to play this week.
68:54I want to wait on that. Deshaun Elliott at safety, which would allow Ramsey to play in the slot all the time.
69:02But now, you know, Elliott's on IR. Porter's a big question mark.
69:07So you're playing like Rayshawn Jenkins a bunch who's completely washed at safety.
69:11And it's – Asante Samuel Jr. is out there at corner.
69:15So the secondary I have lots of questions about.
69:19Now, it helps. There's no A.J. Brown. This will just come down to how effective can the Steelers be in generating pressure without blitzing.
69:27And they might get to May and force them into mistakes.
69:31But I do think May can hit some explosive plays here against this, like, not 100% Steelers secondary.
69:38So I'm going to make a case for a contrarian over now that this has come down.
69:44Especially if it gets to 41. Now, last week my contrarian over was Raiders-Dolphins over 40.
69:50And I had over 40 and a half. I had some over 40 and a half before.
69:56Hours gets announced out after the podcast. I have over 40 and a half.
70:01It goes down to 40. There's 40 points scored with four minutes to go in the third quarter.
70:08There's a missed field goal, and then no one scores again.
70:12That was brutal. But my contrarian over this week is this one.
70:16Because the Steelers are now throwing the ball more downfield.
70:20I think New England can hit some explosives downfield against this not 100% Pittsburgh secondary.
70:25So I think that this one can get a little squarelier.
70:29Would lean Patriots against a number. Second favorite prop for me is Drake May's rushing yards over.
70:35When he's pressured like he was with Seattle, he's going to take off.
70:40Last year he had 45 rushing yards against Pittsburgh.
70:43His number is about 25. I think he's going to tuck it and run a bunch, especially when that Pittsburgh defense, which
70:51you mentioned, obviously doesn't need to blitz in order to get pressure.
70:56There are going to be opportunities. Yeah. Yeah, teams with extra rest early on and before week two have historically done well.
71:04And I think there's some merit to that because it's like, hey, we see where our weaknesses are.
71:10We see what didn't work. So like early in the year with like new pieces, new.
71:16So you can like give a couple extra days to fix some things.
71:21I think that there can be some value to that.
71:24So I do lean Patriots, but it's not cheap.
71:28Like you're paying for like the bounce back spot here.
71:31But I just think it's notable that I think the Steelers secondary is very weak.
71:37It just wasn't going to get exposed last week.
71:40And the Steelers are actually throwing downfield more. And it wasn't reflected in the numbers due to some of the drops and a missed PI.
71:49So if this total keeps coming down, especially like 41, I might get involved in the over.
71:55And then finally, Dolphins 49ers. This could have been the gross game of the week.
72:0149ers 13 to 13 and a half point favorites.
72:04They're 13 and a half at DraftKings right now.
72:07Total 44 and a half. Totals come down. I think the under makes sense.
72:12I think San Francisco is going to lean on the run here, which they can and then get a lead and sit on it.
72:21The Dolphins got dominated by the Raiders. That is not a good look, especially without Brock Bowers.
72:27They might be one of like they're paying for players more for players that aren't on the team than are on the team.
72:36They're the worst team, right? They're worse. Yeah, they're the worst team.
72:40I downgraded them a bunch. I would need the biggest question here is like, what is the travel due to San Francisco?
72:48That was my question for you. Which team has worse travel?
72:52Coming off. Yeah, I mean, Dolphins are staying out there.
72:56So, I don't know. I was so wrong on the Rams 49ers Australia game.
73:01But like it makes sense that the 49ers have a bigger after effect because they were there for like a week, right?
73:09So their bodies. But they had longer, longer recovery time and at home versus this Miami team that's on the road.
73:16You could argue Miami's in a worse travel spot.
73:20Yeah, I would need. I was thinking about Miami here.
73:23But double digit dogs. I would need 14 to think about it.
73:28And they're just a team I don't. I think I just don't want to bet at all until double digit dogs in
73:36week two, like actually don't do well. It's typically typically.
73:39Right. So it's that high for a reason, whatever narrative you want to slap on.
73:45I was just surprised Willis didn't really do much on offense that I thought he would.
73:51He didn't run a ton. But that D line was just smoked off the ball.
73:56I think Niners should be able to just mount, you know, maul them and run all over them.
74:02Yeah. I mean, this could be a fast moving game.
74:0649ers just lean on the run, build a lead, sit on it.
74:10So under makes sense. And I wouldn't blame anyone for just betting against the Dolphins until maybe the market catches up.
74:18Like this, the fare for this could end up being like, you know, 15, 16 if we just don't know how bad this Dolphins team really is.
74:28And like the first data point of getting trounced by the Raiders without their best player, not great.
74:34Let's hit Monday Night Football. Giants, Rams. Rams, seven and a half point favorite totals come down a bit to 47 and a half.
74:43Spoiler alert. One of my other two contest picks is the Rams minus seven.
74:48And maybe there's some travel impact, but they've had extended rest.
74:52This game's going to be played on Monday night and they went into Australia and then right out.
74:59So it's not like their bodies even adjusted to being there.
75:03Right. So but like this is one of the times where I am not going to overreact.
75:09And the fact that I can get the Rams at a touchdown, I'm in.
75:14You would have told me before the year I can lay seven at home.
75:19With the Rams against this Giants team. I'd be running to the window.
75:24Look, the Giants look great. They had a great game plan.
75:28Hat tip to Nagy. Hat tip to Dart and likely in Harbaugh.
75:32But they were playing a Cowboys defense that was just not prepared for some of the looks.
75:38And now I mean, look, then now the Rams have on tape what this Giants offense is going to look like.
75:46And they did some good things. But this is still a Rams defense.
75:51I just think that last in Australia, such a weird circumstance.
75:55They look like they had no energy from the start.
75:58Who knows how the travel impacted them? They just look lifeless from the jump.
76:03But this is a defense all last year that was able to defend the run with light boxes.
76:10I don't see why that would change this year.
76:13I think the Giants just had one of those.
76:17You know, it'll be one of their two best games of the year.
76:21The defense is still abysmal, especially in the secondary.
76:25I do not know how they're going to cover the Rams.
76:29I don't know how they're going to stop the Rams rushing attack.
76:33And unless the Giants are going to score every single possession and score touchdowns, I just don't see how the Rams don't extend here.
76:42You'll get their best effort here. McVay, I mentioned Peyton after a loss.
76:46McVay after a loss, one of the best in the NFL.
76:50Actually, in NFL history, at least 63% against the spread after a loss.
76:55So yeah, their run game should cook here. They could throw to whoever they want.
77:01They could go heavy personnel. They can throw to whoever they want here.
77:05I don't see how the Giants are going to get many stops.
77:10And I don't expect that Giants offense to look that good again this week against a more established, more talented Rams defense.
77:18So I think we're getting the Rams cheap here based on what everyone saw in Australia.
77:23What do you think this number closes Monday night?
77:27I'm seeing like... I think like nine and a half.
77:30I honestly think it'll just come flooding in because sharp groups are hammering seven.
77:35I'm seeing like 90% of tickets are on the Giants right now.
77:40So like a Monday night game can have some...
77:43But the sharp groups are mauling seven. So it's like they can't go to six and a half.
77:50So it's just going to go higher. So you think it's day seven, I guess?
77:55I don't think it'll get too high. So like if you're going to get a ton of public support at like seven
78:03and a half, and then you're getting sharp sitting at seven.
78:07So like I think it'll close seven and a half.
78:11I just don't think that this should be seven or below.
78:15So I like the Giants. I mean, I like the Rams and I don't mind the under just because...
78:22I mean, the Giants are like a service academy team.
78:25They're just like they're going to be very slow, run heavy, throw to their tight ends a ton, take up a ton of time, ton of possessions.
78:35Like there's going to be limited possessions. Like look at that second half of the Cowboys game.
78:41And there's four possessions and four touchdowns. It was pretty crazy.
78:45Well, also, I said this last show is like the West Coast teams last year, 9-0 ATS in primetime went facing an East Coast team.
78:54And then, of course, it was the push with Seattle and New England.
78:59But we have that case here. I mean, there's something to be said about that travel.
79:05I just know like, again, really sharp groups are Moneyline parlaying this.
79:09Like the value is like all on like LA.
79:12Like it's just such a low suppressed number. To be honest, like you said, the public's on the dog.
79:19Like it might be a good like Moneyline play just with it's sort of like the Super Bowl is, right?
79:27They'll just there's so much money on the dog Moneyline that it just gets suppressed.
79:32And there actually is significant line value. And, you know, a big shark group shoving here on the Rams.
79:39Yeah. And it's like the horse race where you do like some horse with and you do a bunch of exactos.
79:47They've done that with the Rams Moneyline with a few teams.
79:51Yeah. Yeah. I think that this everyone it's in one week.
79:55This is like the prototypical week one. Now, I could be wrong.
79:59The Giants come out, win this game. It's the NFL.
80:03And I think it happened. But this is the prototypical week two overreaction game.
80:08Right. A week and a half ago, everyone was low on the Giants.
80:12Like Matt Nagy, like Matt Nagy's offensive coordinator. And everyone was saying the Rams are a super team.
80:19No one's going to beat them. The Rams lose to the 49ers.
80:23It was a Shanahan masterclass in another country. The Giants beat the Cowboys at home.
80:29And now all of a sudden, everyone is running to bet the Giants.
80:33And like, so, yeah. Give me the Rams at seven.
80:37And I will say, like the week one, like I think if I were to make a futures bet and maybe be
80:45guilty of overreacting, I think the Giants to win the division.
80:49At good payoff, not like the favorite. But I think they looked so much more competent.
80:55And if they have enough pieces, neighbors only going to look more healthy the rest of the year.
81:01Like that could be one of those like nine, ten wins gets the division.
81:06And I wouldn't be shocked if they're like a really good home team and stuff like that.
81:13I don't think they're going to win this game.
81:16But I underrated them coming in. Yeah. I think they, what I saw, I think is sustainable the rest of the year.
81:24No, they're definitely better than I, I mean, I upgraded them.
81:28I downgraded the Rams too, but I still can't get to this number.
81:33Let's get to our underdog Moneyline Parlay presented by DraftKings.
81:36Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the Moneyline Parlay.
81:41I'm going to start things off. Last week, Doug, you went with the Jets.
81:46Jets. Well, I'm going with the Jets. I'm going with the Jets this week.
81:51I, this number has come down. I'm at three.
81:54I would lean Jets. Might end up playing the Jets.
81:58There could be some rain in the forecast. The Packers offensive line is bad.
82:03They were dead last and pass block win rate last week.
82:07That was my, one of my biggest concerns with this offense.
82:11And now the run game isn't as good because there's no Josh Jacobs.
82:16The defensive front is bad. The Jets offensive line can handle them.
82:20And if you give Gino time, he can cook like he did last week.
82:25The Jets are much improved like this. I bet their win total over.
82:30They added a ton of just talent to this team.
82:33They are a much more serious operation than they were last week.
82:38I also like some of the things Frank Reich did schematically last week.
82:42I think he had five tight ends on the field at one point, like one in the backfield.
82:49And did you see that formation? No, no. I mean, it's hard to watch eight games like simultaneously.
82:55I was, I was in a book, but I had a, you know, no pad out at a table.
83:02I think there was a tight end in the backfield and then four tight ends spread out wide.
83:09Talk about the tight end revolution. So, but they've, they've used 13 personnel, 18% of the time they went drafted a tight end.
83:17So, and I think that they can have a ton of success doing that against the Packers.
83:23Packers defense, just too many holes without Micah Parsons.
83:27Now the one concern here is the, like the Packers should have won last week against the Vikings.
83:33Yeah. Like they were, it was, they were an unlucky loser.
83:37This line is coming down and love was really good.
83:41Yeah. He, they hit some explosives and then they just, look, it unraveled.
83:46There was a, they didn't get the fourth and one.
83:49There was the, all the bad penalties. And then the turnovers at the end of the game, but love for what it's worth.
83:58He's 0-8 against the spread on the road when laying over a field goal.
84:03Huh. Um, the one thing I'm worried about in this game is the Jets secondary.
84:08If the Jets need to, I think they can get pressure here without, you know, sending everyone like Flores did.
84:15So they're able to like, just play more coverage, get pressure on love.
84:20But this Jets secondary is my biggest concern on the team.
84:24And Minka Fitzpatrick is now on IR. But you're looking at a secondary, or not IR, but he's going to be out a couple weeks.
84:33You're looking at a secondary of like Brandon Stevens, you know, Jarvis Brownlee, Malachi Moore, Andre Siscoe, Dane Belton, Nashawn Wright.
84:41Like, against those Packers receivers, that does scare me.
84:44But, um, and look, the Jets look great. The Packers lost an unlucky game.
84:49So it's not like my typical type of play, but I just think the Jets are still a little bit undervalued.
84:57Back-to-back road games for the Packers to start. Yeah, I think this, this Jets team, this, this, I think this line, I actually make the three.
85:06So I do still show some value. Um, yeah, give me, give me the Jets money line to start.
85:13Two and, oh, where are you going, Doug? So I thought about the Jets, thought about the Falcons.
85:20Uh, I'm going to go Raiders. And it's kind of an overreaction.
85:24Is this because you're angry at the Chargers for ruining your survivor?
85:28Ugh. Which is so funny, because in the preseason, I was saying how I hate it when guys get all mushy with their fiancet.
85:37They get married or have a kid. They just like shift their focus or priorities.
85:43But honestly, and I'm curious to hear, you're like the eye test.
85:47But the Chargers have no speed anywhere. Like on defense, all the Arizona wide receivers were open.
85:53And they're, and with McConkie hurt, like there's just no speed for the Chargers.
85:58Now, Herbert played really bad. He figures to play better.
86:02Um, but I think the Raiders can bring sort of like a, like an edge to this game.
86:08Like I thought the O-line was incredibly well coached.
86:12Now it's against Miami, but, um, Bowers is now day to day.
86:16Cousins did throw some picks, but I think he's fine when he has protection.
86:21I, I was just very underwhelmed by this Chargers team.
86:25And this could be one of those, I mean, it feels like a little like, I don't know, Penn State almost like last year.
86:33I just, it feels like a team that has like good on paper.
86:38Once you see them out there, like the eye test, like nothing special in terms of their weapons.
86:45Hamptons should be a weapon, but the O-line wasn't doing anything.
86:49I don't, it was, look, it was a very flat spot, very flat, excuse me, performance.
86:55And that happens in week one. Sometimes I just don't know if I'm going to see all of a sudden this bounce back performance.
87:03And the Raiders are kind of maybe young and dumb enough to think they're good to at least have another good performance in week two.
87:12So yeah, well the Raiders offensive line, like from a buy low, sell high perspective, like the Chargers are the look here.
87:20Like look, the Raiders look great, but they played the worst team in the league.
87:26Right. Chargers lose at home as a big favorite.
87:29Now this line has come down through seven and it's keep going down.
87:34But I don't hate it as a money line dog play, like because number one, McConkie, he is super critical to this offense.
87:42They were averaging 6.3 yards per play with him, 4.2 without him.
87:46Herbert's EPA per pass with him, positive 0.22 without him, minus 0.33.
87:51He's not practicing today, dealing with a rib injury.
87:54We won't know. It doesn't mean he can't play because he's not practicing today.
87:59We probably won't know until Friday. Like rest is the best thing for it, but he probably won't be 100% really decent chance he doesn't play.
88:09Meanwhile, the Raiders could get Bowers back. Like that's a huge swing.
88:13Like if the Chargers don't have McConkie and the Raiders get Bowers back.
88:18But there was like the interior offensive line for the Chargers is a disaster.
88:23Now the good thing is the Raiders don't have a dominant interior defensive line and your tackles are really good.
88:30So you can handle Crosby, who's really like their only playmaker up front.
88:35So that's like the good news for the Chargers, but they're just not able to run the ball.
88:41Negative 0.13 yards before contact per rush. Dead last in the NFL last week.
88:46They can't block anyone in the interior. It somehow got worse.
88:50They gave up a blocked punt. But yeah, it was bad all around.
88:55And then the Raiders offensive line, meanwhile, is significantly improved.
88:59I know it was against the Dolphins last week, but when you add one of the best centers in the NFL and
89:07you have a healthy Colton Miller now, it is exponentially better.
89:11We've seen upsets of like over a touchdown like this where the dog played really well, like out of their minds, right?
89:19But that wasn't the case. Like Arizona played well and got first downs.
89:23Again, Brissette, the floor is always higher with him.
89:27Like he's decent, right? But like the Chargers didn't even, I mean, the Cardinals didn't even play that great.
89:34The Cardinals were, the Chargers were completely inept the whole time.
89:38And I don't know if that's fixed overnight. You're right.
89:41Like the spot teams that are, you know, lose outright as a big favorite, always bounce back.
89:47But every year, I swear it's like, maybe Evan can help us out, but I think it's like 10, 15 straight years,
89:55something like that, where there's a team with a win total of at least 10.
90:01So a double digit win total that misses the playoffs.
90:05I mean, this has Chargers written all over it.
90:08Yeah. I mean, the other thing is, which I didn't even mention is the defense, which if you look on paper, it's not that talented.
90:17And then we saw what Minter did for the Ravens.
90:21They lose Jesse Minter. The defense looked slow. The guys were out of place.
90:26So they're really fast. They put Derwin James on McBride.
90:29And obviously McBride's really good. He got open on some short dinks on third down.
90:35Like that's fine. Derwin James is great. But besides that, there's just no speed.
90:40I think. And that's the thing where like these Raiders, no name receivers, but they're fast.
90:46So that's all that matters. Yeah. And it's, it's there's sharp group at the under.
90:51I know a sharp group that bet the under it's probably McConkie driven.
90:56Um, I don't know. I could see it going under and being kind of a variance game.
91:02Yeah. Because when cousins really can't throw down field, like.
91:06Yeah. He was worse than I thought, to be honest.
91:09He had some really bad. I thought he'd be like a game manager with no Nick, you know, not nicked up early in the season, be fresh.
91:19I thought he'd be much like a little bit more polished, but yeah, he had some bad picks.
91:26This is a, I mean, I, I don't want to say this early in the season, but as much of a must win.
91:34Oh, you can have for week two for the.
91:37Because with their schedule, it is. Hardest seven game stretch in like 10 years coming up.
91:43You start Arizona and Vegas at home. You're like, we need to go to know if you go.
91:50Oh, and two before at Buffalo at Seattle, Denver at Kansas City at the Rams, Houston at Baltimore.
91:56And then I thought there was a level of competency.
92:00I had never, I had not seen a long time with the Raiders.
92:04I mean, they're still paying like five head coaches.
92:08I swear. But the other thing is it's a divisional game, but it's on the road, but it might be a home game.
92:16Right, right. Yeah. I mean, I'm from L.A. originally and I'm a Raiders fan because I left when they left back in the 90s.
92:25I just think it was a well thought out game plan.
92:29Just like everything had perfect, like the competent Ashton Jenty actually looked really good.
92:34I don't know. Like, I think it's worth a flyer on the money line.
92:39All right. And that parlay of Jets Raiders comes to plus 800.
92:43And you should be looking to place that at DraftKings.
92:47Because all throughout the month of September, DraftKings has given you profit boost every game day.
92:53Just one of the many reasons the crown is yours.
92:56All right. Teaser of the week. Always tease, tease, tease.
93:00We're going to go mention the Bucs. Makes sense.
93:03Low total. Tease that under a field goal. Fade to Sean Watson.
93:08And then take the Bengals up over a touchdown.
93:11Burrow as a dog. Don't see him getting blown out here.
93:15Should be a competitive game. So we're going to go Bengals-Bucs as our teaser of the week.
93:21And then for Survivor. Doug is gone. He stays silent during the segment.
93:26He can thank the Chargers and the Cardinals for that.
93:29I'm going to go. I had the Steelers last week.
93:33I didn't think I was going to have to sweat after it was Cooper Rush, but I did.
93:40I'm going to go with the Bucs this week.
93:43This is one of their easiest spots on the schedule.
93:47So we're looking just to advance here. Not get too cute.
93:51I will get cute sometimes. But this week, just going with the Bucs.
93:55I mean, I could go with the 49ers if I just wanted to advance.
94:00But saving them in pocket. There also is the thought like some – I know a couple people in Survivor that are just fading the Dolphins every week.
94:10Possible. March for Arch. I mean, there's tanking maybe rear its ugly head big time in the NFL that we haven't really seen.
94:19Yeah, especially with this quarterback class. All right, let's get to a summary of our contest picks and the overall six-pack.
94:26And we'll get to my final pick. Doug has the Vikings.
94:30And – oh, wait, you haven't given your second pick yet.
94:34Where are you going for your second pick? Yeah, so I mentioned that sharp group.
94:40I had two plays. One was the over on Thursday Night Football.
94:44The other one was Arizona. But I'm on Seattle.
94:48I like that side. It's official. Sam Darnold's not playing.
94:51Drew Locke. And he only had one shaky throw.
94:54And that was at the end of the first half.
94:58But I thought the second half he was on point.
95:02And full week of practice, Seattle, I think, will be ready to rock.
95:06I think it's obviously the obvious flat spot of Arizona.
95:10And, again, I didn't think they played that great.
95:13They're obviously a competent offense with – you know, they can do some things on offense downfield.
95:20But I think the Seattle defense is special. I think Drew Locke.
95:24I'm not – like, Darnold was great last year.
95:27But I think a lot of that was the system and Kubiak.
95:32I think Locke will be fine. I think Locke will be fine.
95:36It's a short enough number with that defense. I'm not worried about, like, a flat spot off the big win against New
95:44England because it wasn't that big of a win for them.
95:48I think it's a short number here at three and a half.
95:52I'm surprised. I disagree with you. I think I'm going to be on the Cardinals here.
95:58I just – I make – the Cardinals last day, they've just been so unlucky with injuries.
96:04They have good young pieces on defense. Like, this is a way more talented team than the market perceives now.
96:11And I've been to that stadium. It's a sneaky underrated home field.
96:16Really? Yeah. It gets loud. I've never been to a game there.
96:20But I still have it. I have, like, a four and a half point.
96:25Look, Locke looked incredible. But we've seen backups come in mid-game.
96:29Like, we kind of know who Drew Locke is.
96:33I can't get to laying three and a half with Drew Locke on the road against.
96:38But there is Mike McDonald. Don't doubt him. He's very good.
96:42He's very good. Last year, they played the Card.
96:46They played Brissette. And they basically had two of the same exact strip, sack, fumble return for touchdowns.
96:52And they were up 28-0 before you could blink in that game.
96:57So he could just scheme Brissette into mistakes. He's 13-4-1 ATS.
97:01Yeah. You can put your money with many worse coaches than McDonald.
97:05Probably won't be 77% lifetime. But, you know. Pretty damn good start.
97:09All right. So Doug's picks are the Vikings, which I agree with, and the Seahawks.
97:15I'm not there, but I can see why you're going.
97:18It's going to be a sweat. With McDonald. It should be a good sweat.
97:23And then Evan is going with the Colts. Try to wait for a seven there.
97:29I'm going to go with my first pick was the Broncos.
97:33My second pick, get ready for it, everyone. We're officially back.
97:37Zach, I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus seven.
97:40This, I don't want to do this. This will be the only podcast I'm pretty sure that you'll hear making a case for Tennessee.
97:49Probably because it's the only podcast with a moron who talks about the NFL on it.
97:55So, look, now I will say it's seven at DraftKings.
97:58It's the number we're going to use. Wait, no one is betting the Titans.
98:03I think they'll probably touch seven and a half at some point.
98:08Although it's pretty telling, this thing will not budge.
98:11I talked to one odds maker who said there's 97% of the tickets on the Eagles so far, which is ridiculous.
98:19Evan, do you have anything on the Eagles splits right now on the app or anywhere else?
98:25I can't imagine there's more than four bets on the Titans.
98:29Yeah, it's about that range for us. But I tend to not even want to talk Wednesday, early week.
98:36But yeah, it is one of the biggest public sides.
98:39Well, you don't even need to look at anything to know how one side of that's going to be.
98:46All right. So, number one. The Shark group bet over 39 and a half.
98:51I know that. So, maybe the offense wakes up.
98:55Look, it was a disaster last week. I mean, Ward, he had, like, I don't know what they were doing.
99:02They had the highest neutral pass rate, but they had a top five EPA per rush, and they just kept throwing it.
99:10He had the lowest time to throw, but when he was not, the offensive line was bad.
99:16When he was not pressured, he had the third highest off target rate, even though he was only throwing it an average of five yards downfield.
99:25He was missing easy throws to the flat. His footwork was off.
99:30His targets downfield averaged the fourth most separation in the league, yet he only threw the ball deep at the second lowest rate.
99:38Everything was a disaster. There was wide receivers running into each other sometimes.
99:43The play calling was a disaster. Everything was bad.
99:46The defense also, it's not talented in the secondary.
99:49It was bad, and they got carved up by the Jets.
99:53Now, in fairness, I will say the Jets had, like, a 17-play touchdown drive that took, like, 10 minutes, and then the
100:01Titans fumbled a kickoff, and the Jets got the ball back, and, like, it was 100 degrees.
100:08Like, I think their defense just wore down. But, and look, the Titans stink.
100:13I downgraded them again, and I hated them coming into the year.
100:17I just can't get to the summer, especially at 7 1⁄2.
100:21So, I'm around 6. And part of that is the Eagles didn't cover last week.
100:27The Eagles' offense was a mess. Like, I think Hurts played well, but they couldn't run the ball.
100:33They averaged .28 yards before contact per rush against the commander's defense.
100:37It was 28th in the league. Hurts had a league-high 33% non-target rate.
100:42So, it was a lot of throwaways, and the protection was bad.
100:46Now you're dealing with Dickerson on IR. You might bring in, you might flip a guard to a center.
100:53You might have a backup card in there. Like, so, against Jeffrey Simmons and the strength of that Tennessee defense, the Eagles only had 10 first downs.
101:03Six were on third down. There were three. One was a third and 18 scramble, which was huge in the game.
101:11There was a third and 17, third and goal pass from the 17-yard line.
101:16That was huge. But the offense, new offense under Sean Mannion, they're still growing pains.
101:21So, like, they didn't exceed my expectations. They didn't cover last week.
101:26I thought that this line was going to be like five and a half, six.
101:31The kicker, so I am going to say that the Titans are going to be better.
101:37They have to be better. They can't be worse than last week.
101:41But, you know, new coaching staff, new schemes. You hope that they're just a little bit better.
101:48The kicker for me is Salah versus Hertz. Salah has Hertz's number.
101:52I mean, he, last year with a practice squad defense, beat him in Philly.
101:57They had basically no one left among their starters on defense.
102:01Beat him in Philly, decent-sized underdog. A couple years ago with the Jets, Zach Wilson's starting quarterback, they were catching seven at home.
102:09Beat him outright, shut him down. So, he shut down Hertz in both meetings.
102:14I think he, it's a very difficult matchup for Hertz, and he has his number for whatever reason.
102:21Now, it's only two starts, but I think that there's something there.
102:25Also, this is just, we're buying at the very low of the mark on the Titans.
102:31Catching seven at home with a total of 39.
102:34One reason I wouldn't like that over, number one, the Titans might just not score.
102:40But it's going to be like 98 degrees. So, when it's that hot, scoring drops, I think, like 8-9% historically.
102:47But home dogs in week two after losing in week one by double digits at home.
102:53So, you just saw a home team lose by double digits at home.
102:58They're back at home as a dog. So, very small sample size, but very successful against the spread.
103:04Over the last 20 years, they're 7-2 against the spread.
103:08And the quarterbacks that have covered are like Pickett, Rush, Bortles, Derek Anderson, Carson Wentz.
103:13Like, these are the quarterbacks you got to back.
103:17Not elite. I'm playing a number here, but I'm also fading this Eagles.
103:21And look, Hurts has not been good as a road chalk in his career.
103:26I'm fading this Eagles offense. The Eagles basically need to win by double digits here.
103:32I don't think their offense is at the state.
103:35But they should dominate the trenches, right? Yes. Which is what the Jets did.
103:40Which is what the Jets did to Tennessee. Yeah.
103:43But there are injuries in the interior. Like, if Simmons and company.
103:48And they weren't that great against Washington. Yeah. If Simmons and company can cause some chaos here, I'd wait for the 7-1⁄2.
103:56But my third pick is the Tennessee Titans. It wouldn't be the start of the podcast and our podcast until I have a bet on the Titans.
104:06Which never ends well. So everyone go out and bet the Eagles.
104:10But for our contest picks, we'll summarize. Doug's going with the Vikings plus 4-1⁄2.
104:15The Seahawks minus 3-1⁄2. I'm going with the Broncos minus 2-1⁄2.
104:19The Rams minus 7. And the Titans plus 7.
104:22And then Evan, to make it a six-pack, is throwing in the Colts.
104:27But wait for 7. Nice. As far as shopping around, I think the biggest keys are, yeah, Colts, you want to wait to see if a 7 pops.
104:37Titans, wait on that. I don't think it's going to go below 7.
104:42Wait to see if a 7-1⁄2 pops. But that is our Sunday six-pack and our contest picks.
104:48Thanks to Doug for joining me. Thanks to Evan, as always.
104:52And thanks to our producers on the back end.
104:55Most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in.
104:59Make sure you subscribe, subscribe, subscribe, tell a friend, tell an enemy.
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105:11Thanks to Giraffe Kings. We'll catch you all later.
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