NFL Power Rankings | 2026
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 59 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 8, 2026
Published
Tue, September 8, 2026
55
Player insights
49
Players mentioned
Topics
Jack StrandJayden DanielsJaylen WaddleParker WashingtonTravis HunterTua TagovailoaBaker MayfieldBijan RobinsonBo NixBrock BowersBryce YoungBucky IrvingCam WardCeeDee Lamb
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
NegativeInjury72:34
Matt Rogers notes that Baker Mayfield played hurt for most of the time down the stretch last year, which negatively impacted his performance.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveUsage24:56
Matt Rogers identifies Robinson as an elite playmaker who would benefit significantly from improved quarterback play, noting that simply getting the ball into his hands is a primary offensive goal.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection57:46
Matt Rogers is skeptical of Bo Nix's ability to sustain the Broncos' success in one-score games, noting that relying on late-game heroics is not a sustainable metric for a quarterback.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveBreakout30:52
Matt Rogers is extremely high on Brock Bowers, projecting a monster season. He has bet on Bowers to exceed 82.5 receptions, lead tight ends in receiving yards (+350), and potentially lead the entire league in receptions (25-1). Rogers considers him a priority target in auction drafts.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection23:31
Brandon Anderson is bearish on Bryce Young, ranking him as a middling 25th-27th best quarterback. He notes that Young struggled in the preseason and suggests the team could be looking for his replacement in the next draft.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveValue72:07
Matt Rogers considers Bucky Irving to be an underrated running back for the Buccaneers.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection28:36
Brandon Anderson is critical of Cam Ward, citing poor metrics and a lackluster preseason performance. He notes that while rookie quarterbacks historically struggle, he is betting against the narrative of Ward's improvement.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection76:25
Matt Rogers identifies the Cowboys' receiving unit, led by CeeDee Lamb, as the best in the league.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
PositiveProjection62:01
Matt Rogers identifies Chris Rodriguez as a potential touchdown leader for the Jaguars, noting he has placed a bet on him at 11-to-1 odds at DraftKings.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue31:01
Matt Rogers identifies Colston Loveland as one of three tight ends he is personally betting on for the upcoming season.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection76:18
Matt Rogers compares Dak Prescott to Tony Romo, calling him a perennial top-eight quarterback who receives little respect.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeInjury43:02
Matt Rogers notes that Daniel Jones is expected to start Week 1 following an Achilles injury, but expresses significant skepticism about his performance given his career history and the difficulty of returning from that specific injury.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeUsage55:02
Matt Rogers questions how David Montgomery will hold up in a split-backfield role with Jahmyr Gibbs, given the Lions' fading run game.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeProjection10:21
Brandon Anderson ranks the Browns dead last at quarterback, noting that Deshaun Watson is currently beating out Shedeur Sanders for the starting job, though he questions how long that will last and suggests Sanders could see snaps if things go poorly.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveUsage24:56
Matt Rogers highlights London as a key playmaker for the Falcons, emphasizing that the offense's success relies on getting the ball to him and Bijan Robinson.
Insight pageJack Strand
NegativeDepth Chart21:14
Matt Rogers identifies Jack Strand as the likely successor to the starting quarterback role in Atlanta, noting that the team has no other viable options. However, Rogers cautions that despite the excitement, Strand is an undrafted player and may not provide a significant fantasy boost.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout24:40
Matt Rogers highlights the hype surrounding Jack Strand, noting that some analysts are even suggesting he could contend for Offensive Player of the Year. The optimism is based on the idea that he can effectively distribute the ball to elite playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Drake London, potentially outperforming the current quarterback options.
Insight pageJames Conner
NegativeUsage20:08
Brandon Anderson notes the crowded backfield in Arizona involving James Conner and Trey Benson as a reason for his skepticism regarding Jeremiah Love's immediate fantasy impact.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeUsage54:46
Matt Rogers expresses concern about Jared Goff's performance under interior pressure, noting that the Lions' offensive line regression could negatively impact his efficiency.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeProjection26:03
Matt Rogers suggests that the Commanders' outlook is bleak because the team is overly reliant on Daniels, and the surrounding roster—specifically the offensive line—is severely lacking, making it difficult for him to succeed.
Insight pageNegativeInjury27:53
Matt Rogers suggests that if the team starts 0-6, there is a risk that Jayden Daniels could roll an ankle or be sidelined, leading the team to pivot toward a different quarterback strategy.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveBreakout58:39
Matt Rogers is high on Jaylen Waddle's upside, having bet him at 125-to-1 for Offensive Player of the Year and 60-to-1 to lead the league in receiving yards.
Insight pagePositiveValue67:11
Matt Rogers highlights Jaylen Waddle as an Offensive Player of the Year bet at 125-to-1 odds.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveSleeper16:54
Brandon Anderson likes Jeremiah Love for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +550, noting that his recent ankle injury has created value in the betting market. He believes the Cardinals' offensive scheme under Michael LeFleur will utilize him effectively.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection64:38
Matt Rogers highlights a bet on Joe Burrow to throw for 400 yards in any game this season at -130 odds, suggesting the line should be closer to -300.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveInjury28:26
Brandon Anderson expresses skepticism about Jonathan Brooks' potential as a breakout player, noting the difficulty of returning from a torn ACL.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveUsage69:15
Matt Rogers credits Frank Smith's creative run game for unlocking Jordan Mason late in the season.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection51:25
Matt Rogers identifies Josh Allen as his number one quarterback, though he remains concerned about the Bills' overall team structure and coaching.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury45:15
Matt Rogers highlights uncertainty surrounding Josh Jacobs's availability for the Packers, noting that while he is not typically injury-prone, his current status is unknown.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeProjection66:14
Matt Rogers questions whether Justin Herbert will finally become the quarterback he was promised to be, noting he has shown glimpses but not when it matters most.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
PositiveRole29:46
Matt Rogers expresses confidence in Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback for the Raiders, noting he can stand in the pocket and deliver the ball effectively within the Clint Kubiak system.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection70:02
Matt Rogers notes that even league-average play from Kyler Murray would be a massive upgrade over the quarterback situation the Vikings had last year.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveUsage14:53
Brandon Anderson highlights Malik Willis as a primary rushing threat, noting he averaged 53 rushing yards per game in his last five starts. He projects heavy usage for Willis in the rushing game under Bobby Slowik and recommends betting on him to lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards at 6-1 odds.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveBreakout16:52
Brandon Anderson highlights Marvin Harrison as a key offensive weapon for the Cardinals, contributing to the team's potential for fun, creative offensive play.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
NegativeProjection22:52
Matt Rogers expresses skepticism regarding Penix's talent level, noting that he sees significant flaws in his game and does not believe he is a high-level solution for the team's offensive needs.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
NegativeProjection48:40
Matt Rogers describes Michael Pittman as the 'most average number one wide receiver in the NFL,' suggesting limited upside for the Steelers' passing game.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveBreakout16:52
Brandon Anderson lists Michael Wilson as one of the fun, talented players on the Cardinals' offense, alongside McBride and Harrison.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
PositiveUsage30:16
Matt Rogers notes that rookie Mike Washington looked impressive in the preseason, averaging around seven yards per carry within the new offensive system.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue67:18
Matt Rogers lists Nico Collins as an Offensive Player of the Year bet at 40-to-1 odds.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue61:57
Matt Rogers expresses a strong liking for Parker Washington within the Jaguars' receiving group.
Insight pagePositiveValue67:21
Matt Rogers lists Parker Washington as an Offensive Player of the Year bet at 400-to-1 odds.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
NegativeProjection48:37
Matt Rogers characterizes Rico Dowdle as the 'most average running back in the league,' reflecting his lack of excitement for the Steelers' backfield.
Insight pageShedeur Sanders
NegativeDepth Chart10:21
Brandon Anderson notes Shedeur Sanders is currently behind Deshaun Watson on the depth chart but suggests he could see playing time as early as this Sunday if the Browns' offense struggles.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
NegativeRole26:28
Matt Rogers views the receivers as acceptable but notes that Stefon Diggs is on the older side, which is a concern for the team's overall offensive outlook.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeRole26:28
Matt Rogers views the receivers as acceptable but notes that Terry McLaurin is on the older side, which is a concern for the team's overall offensive outlook.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
NegativeRole60:22
Matt Rogers notes that while the Jaguars added Travis Hunter to the defense, it appears he will play defense rather than receiver.
Insight pagePositiveDepth Chart60:28
Matt Rogers notes the addition of Travis Hunter to the Jaguars' defense, though he still expects regression for the team overall.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveBreakout61:54
Matt Rogers believes Trevor Lawrence is currently in the process of breaking out.
Insight pageTrey Benson
NegativeUsage20:08
Brandon Anderson mentions Trey Benson as part of the Cardinals' backfield rotation, which contributes to his concerns about Jeremiah Love's path to being a high-impact rookie.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveBreakout16:52
Brandon Anderson identifies Trey McBride as one of the fun, high-upside players on the Cardinals roster, grouping him with Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson as key offensive weapons.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
NegativeRole20:44
Matt Rogers expresses extreme skepticism regarding Tua Tagovailoa's starting role, noting he 'almost lost' the job to an undrafted rookie during the preseason. Rogers believes Tagovailoa panics under pressure and has not demonstrated NFL-caliber performance, predicting he will eventually be replaced by Jack Strand.
Insight pageNegativeProjection22:52
Matt Rogers expresses significant concern regarding Tagovailoa's long-term viability due to his history of concussions and the physical toll of hits, suggesting that his pocket presence and mentality have been negatively impacted. Despite acknowledging his offensive talent and favorable indoor/weather conditions, Rogers fears he cannot hold up physically and questions his ability to sustain a statistically relevant offense.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeInjury45:21
Matt Rogers notes that while Tucker Kraft appears likely to return soon, his performance level upon return remains a question for the Packers.
Insight pageTyler Allgeier
NegativeUsage19:04
Brandon Anderson expresses concern that the presence of Tyler Allgeier could limit Jeremiah Love's upside, as defenses might stack the box to stop the run. He also mentions betting Allgeier at 28-1 to lead the team in touchdowns as a hedge.
Insight pageWan'Dale Robinson
PositiveDepth Chart30:04
Brandon Anderson acknowledges the addition of Wandale Robinson as a positive move for the Titans' skill positions, though he notes the team still has a long way to go to reach league-average talent.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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3:05I'm just about that action, boss. Ready! Hey! All right, here we go.
3:09From the tent, throwing in zone. Spectacular catch. They're sitting, it's a catch.
3:13Touchdown. No. You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
3:18Oh my God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.
3:22All right. That is the ultimate kibosh. You want to bet?
3:25And we are. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.
3:29I'm Brandon Kravitz. Brandon 2.0. Brandon 1.0. Brandon Anderson is about to rock your world with his best NFL bets across each
3:35team in each division in the NFL. We're going 32 through one with Brandon Anderson's power rankings.
3:40Brandon, you and I have a future show that we'll be doing together this fall.
3:45So be on the lookout for that. This should be a nice launch into that show.
3:50I'm excited to get into it. Yeah, we're excited.
3:52We're doing the full power rankings today. I thought I was coming here with like 10, 12 team futures.
3:58And we are. Those are the new bets that were coming.
4:01My favorite win totals. My favorite division bets. All of that is brand new today.
4:06And then I got a little greedy, threw in a couple of player props here and there.
4:11Added this MVP that, this award here. And what do you know?
4:15We got a bet for every team here. So we got bets for everything.
4:19Some of them we're going to just barely mention and keep moving because we got to keep it moving along.
4:25But they're like awards bets. They're, they're player prop bets.
4:28They're things that we have articles and podcasts up already.
4:31So I'm going to re-explain everything then. But about half the stuff is brand new bets.
4:36Win totals, divisions, team futures is the key today.
4:38And we'll give them to you in power rankings order.
4:41Give them to you what we think going to the, well, what I think going into the season.
4:47Brandon 2.0 can tell you what he thinks along the way.
4:50And we'll have some fun. This feels like Christmas day.
4:53I feel like I'm under the tree right now.
4:56And then Brandon Anderson, AKA Santa Claus is handing out all the goodies.
5:00And I am, I am merely a Christmas elf.
5:02So we're going to go through Brandon's power rankings, 32 through one with an actual bets for every team.
5:08Some of these awards or props that you've already seen or heard on this podcast channel, but we've got some newbies today as well.
5:15His top division plays and all of his team futures.
5:18Uh, as always broken into tears, starting with 32.
5:21So let's dive right into it. The start scouting Saturdays tier.
5:24Well, good news as a dolphins fan, I've already started doing that.
5:28And I really like what I see by the way, in the college football world, when it comes to the top end talent.
5:35But we're looking at a three team tier here.
5:37Browns at 32 dolphins at 31. And then the Arizona Cardinals, not exactly the biggest surprise here at the bottom, but maybe
5:44a slight surprise in that you have the Browns at the very bottom with the Cardinals and the dolphins having the two
5:51lowest wind totals at three and a half. But you have the Browns as dead last.
5:55So what is it about them that makes them the bottomist autumn dweller?
5:59The worst of the worst here. As we start out, look, they are the worst, the worst in two of my rankings.
6:06We did all the rankings, quarterbacks, offensive line, coaching staff, et cetera, et cetera.
6:10They're dead last at quarterback and they're dead last at offensive line.
6:14And I don't think I even really need to sell you on either one of those things.
6:19You get to Sean Watson beating out Shader Sanders at quarterback.
6:22We'll see how long that lasts. Like I wouldn't even be surprised if we see Shader out there for snaps this Sunday
6:29in the second half, if things go really poorly.
6:31But the fact that you can't even get one of those guys to emerge your offensive line.
6:37The best thing I can say about it is that there's nobody back from last year.
6:41It's five new guys. At least that happened for you.
6:44Like that's not great when that's the silver lining.
6:47And look, that adds up to being the two most important parts of the offense, making you the worst offense in the league.
6:54Offense matters more than defense. It's not 50-50. It's more offense.
6:57And if you're the worst offense, you're the worst team.
7:00That's how it goes. I also look at special teams.
7:03They're last in special teams in my rankings. They were second to last last year.
7:08They had a bad punter, bad kickoff unit, bad returners.
7:11And they ran it back and said, let's just bring our guys back again.
7:15This is great working out for us. Defense, I think probably not so bad, but you lost Miles Garrett and you lost Jim Schwartz.
7:22The play caller. I think it's a pretty steep drop off potentially from that group.
7:27So not as bad as the offense and special teams, but nothing is as bad as that.
7:32And I think honestly, there's a chance Todd Munkin is just not up for this.
7:36Like as the guy, the head coach, I think there's a chance this is just not it.
7:41And the core is rotten there. Because I have them last, it's a pretty easy bet.
7:46Least wins in the NFL, 11-1 Cleveland Browns. If you want the sure outcome, just under five and a half.
7:52They've only gotten four overs in 18 seasons here in Cleveland.
7:56If you really want the sure bet, last in the division, minus 190.
7:59But you know with me, I like the longer shots, 11-1.
8:03It's not the most brutal schedule. First seven games, they get Carolina, the Jets, and the Titans.
8:08But the flip side is, you lose those games, you like this ticket a lot.
8:12And if they don't get this thing going early and win some of the winnable ones, there are a lot of AFC
8:19North and other teams waiting and it gets ugly.
8:22Yeah, it's hard to like a team that lost their best player and is most assuredly going to have erratic quarterback play.
8:28I've been surprised to see some analysts in on them as a surprise team this year.
8:33I'd be more likely to lean in your direction.
8:36So what about the Dolphins and the Cardinals? And these teams are in major rebuild mode.
8:41They know it. We know it. So let's spin this positive.
8:44Give us a reason to be excited about Miami or Arizona.
8:47Yeah, the Dolphins honestly look like an expansion team, right?
8:50Like it's a full-on makeover. You got a quarterback.
8:53You're just given a chance to here in Malik Willis.
8:56This is my number 32 defense. So offense better than defense.
8:59And that's why the Browns are ranked lower. But this is number 32 defense with a bullet, like by a lot, especially talent-wise.
9:06They have the worst secondary in the league. Jeff Halfley has his work cut out for him.
9:11I think offense is where you can at least be intrigued, right?
9:15What's this look like if you get A-chan and what looks like this young improving offensive line and now Malik Willis and
9:21you build the whole thing around Bobby Sloick and the rushing game.
9:25I think that could be fun. I think that could be creative.
9:29So my bet here is Malik Willis' most quarterback rushing yards at 6-1 at DraftKings.
9:33His last five starts as an NFL quarterback, 53 yards a game rushing.
9:3715 games of that, even if he gets that and misses a couple, still 800.
9:42They don't really have a backup. It's the Malik Willis show for better and for worse.
9:46So Brandon, I think you're going to see a lot of Malik Willis running this year.
9:51The Dolphins have a nice top five special teams unit too.
9:54That could steal a game. So maybe you get to above three and a half.
9:59Arizona, I think they don't really, really belong down here.
10:02Technically speaking, they'd be one tier up, but not in the next group.
10:06Like they'd be their own tier, but we don't need an own tier at number 30 for the Cardinals.
10:12A lot of fun players, McBride, Harrison, Michael Wilson.
10:14Jeremiah Love looks like he may actually play this week.
10:17That was my pick for Arizona, plus 550 for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
10:21I think the ankle injury bought some value there.
10:24But you get all those weapons. You get Michael LeFleur running the offense.
10:28The left side of the line is pretty good.
10:31So run everything to the left. Just do it that direction.
10:34The defense had a ton of injuries last year and decided to still bring back Nick Rallis, which I think sort of
10:41speaks for itself as coaching, even with the changes there.
10:44So I think the Cardinals are clearly the best of these three teams, but they're in the NFC West.
10:49And spoiler, we're not going to get to the other division teams for a very long time in this podcast.
10:55So that's six likely losses right there. They are seven point underdogs or worse in the first 11 games of the season is Arizona.
11:03So here's the good news for Dolphins and Cardinals.
11:05Six teams since 1990 have a preseason win total of four or less.
11:09All six have won at least four games, average of five.
11:12So, hey, I don't know. Is that good news?
11:15Maybe you'd rather just lose some games and get the high draft pick.
11:19I want to thread this needle. I've been thinking about this all off season, and especially after watching college football on Saturday,
11:26I'm trying to thread the needle of Malik Willis is good enough to be the quarterback of the future.
11:31And if he hits this bet, that would be a good way to get there.
11:36But where the Dolphins don't win enough games to not end up with Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State.
11:41That's the guy that I'm after speaking of Jeremiah's.
11:44Is there any concern with the Jeremiah Love bet that they did spend that money on Tyler Algier defenses, perhaps stacking the
11:51box to take him away, which is easier said than done because they do have good weapons.
11:56But the Algier thing, it gives me more pause than even the ankle injury would.
12:00Yeah, and I bet Algier 28 to 1 to lead the team in touchdowns.
12:04That kind of gives me a different alternative outcome here as well.
12:08I think there are a lot of concerns. James Conner, Trey Benson.
12:12I was out on love as the rookie of the year pick out of the draft.
12:16I was looking elsewhere. My concern to your concerns is I couldn't find anyone.
12:21But now you're just betting on the Titans receiver one.
12:24We'll get to Jadarian Price later in the podcast.
12:26I have some concerns with him. To me, I'm not convinced love is awesome and in the best situation.
12:32I am convinced that if you're pricing him equal to those three guys, it's a pretty easy choice.
12:37So given the odds and where the numbers are at, where he was like 3-1 coming out of the draft, where Ashton
12:44Gentry was 3-1 last year, it's a no. But now we're getting almost double that.
12:49So I can handle that. Well, if you've ever wondered if you've taught me anything over the short time that we've worked
12:55together, I have one offensive rookie of the year bet, and it's on Dajon Stribbling at 13-1.
13:00So tip of the cap to you for showing me the ways of the long shot.
13:05All right, let's go to the next tier. Tier 8.
13:08Outlook, not so good. We've got four teams in this tier.
13:11The Panthers, Titans, Falcons, and the Commanders. So we'll start with Carolina.
13:15A stock sold on a playoff Panthers squad from 2025.
13:18The first playoff team from last year to not make the cut on this list.
13:22The Panthers won the NFC South last year. They almost beat the Rams in the playoffs.
13:27But you have them as the fourth worst team, not just in the division, in the league.
13:32So what's the look here? Yeah, I just think I have a really hard time buying any ceiling on this team.
13:39This tier could have just been called the unders tier because we're going under on all four of these teams.
13:45That is going to be the bet on all four of them.
13:48The Panthers are kind of running it back with most of the roster.
13:52And then you'll go out and add Jalen Phillips and Devin Lloyd.
13:56That's the two big tickets. I'm a little underwhelmed with both of those guys.
14:00I'm underwhelmed with the idea of running it back on this team.
14:04Your offensive line is missing both tackles indefinitely. The guards are banged up.
14:08Line injuries, especially cluster injuries, that can wreck your entire season.
14:11And if Bryce Young can't handle, we know he can't handle the pressure.
14:15So if the line doesn't hold up and your run game isn't quite as good because that's how you're protecting Bryce, it's
14:21easy to see a scenario where it's like, man, we won the division last year.
14:26Now we can barely win anything. And it's the end for the Bryce Young, Dave Canales.
14:31This whole era, which is the worst era. What is the Bryce Young era?
14:35We don't need that to be an era. That could be a blip would feel better.
14:40But it's just a very regression team. They won eight games.
14:43They probably deserve closer to six by some of the underlying metrics.
14:47They had six of those eight wins were against teams with losing records.
14:50Obviously, your division helps when everyone has a losing record.
14:53Seven and three and one score games. They're one of only 10 playoff teams in the last four decades that had just
15:00one win all season by more than a score.
15:03So there just was nothing comfortable for this team.
15:05And as I look for like, OK, what's the upside case here?
15:09I don't really know. There's not a path for anything on this team that I think even be like league average.
15:15Bryce Young, I put as something like the 25th to 27th ranked quarterback in the league.
15:20I think that's where most would have him. I think that's what this entire team is.
15:25That's about where I have this defense. That's about where I have this offense.
15:29And if you're kind of capped as the 25th best and then you can get injuries or things go bad or you
15:36get some bad luck, if that's the best you can do is be barely bottom quarter of the league.
15:41There's a lot more down than there is up on that.
15:45So Panthers under seven and a half. This is my favorite win total on the entire board.
15:50So this is going to be an easy under for me.
15:53I'm going to go alt under five and a half plus 245 at DraftKings.
15:57Five and a half is about my projection for this team.
16:01And I think the bottom could fall out. You go Chicago, Atlanta, Cleveland to start.
16:05Those are winnable. But again, if you don't get those, now it's Carolina playing Detroit, Philly, Tampa, Green Bay, Denver.
16:11That's a lot of losses if things go badly.
16:14So if you want to go all in on the Panthers not doing the thing, 25 to one for worst record in
16:21the league, I think is in play. If it starts out badly, I think Young could fail.
16:26I think Canals could be gone. I just don't see it with this Carolina team.
16:30You close your eyes and you can easily envision them at the top of the draft board looking for the guy that replaces Bryce Young.
16:38He is nothing more than a middling starter in the NFL.
16:41We saw him. It was rare to see any of these starters in the preseason this year.
16:46That's probably a different conversation for another day. But we did see him and he looked bad.
16:51So just not seeing the improvement. You're supposed to look your best in the preseason.
16:56And he was still, you know, was like four yards a pass.
16:59It's just it doesn't get me excited. You mentioned the injuries, too.
17:03If Tett McMillan goes down, who are they throwing to?
17:06They're relying on Jonathan Brooks to be a breakout in the backfield.
17:09The guy's like playing ping pong with torn ACLs.
17:12So I certainly see where you're coming from on that.
17:15The Titans won only three games with Cam Ward.
17:18They fired everyone and added some talent up and down the roster.
17:21I think they improved. I think they improved that head coach with Robert Sala.
17:26Emphasis on the I think I kind of liked him in New York.
17:30He was dealt Zach Wilson. That'll hurt. But it can't really be as bad as last year, can it?
17:35I mean, right now it sort of looks like he's being dealt Cam Ward the way Cam Ward looks in the preseason, too.
17:42So that's that's rough. But it's not looking great right now.
17:45This should be such an obvious improvement team, right?
17:48They add a ton of vets on defense. Jermaine Johnson, John Franklin Myers, Alante Taylor, Cordial Flatt.
17:53Names we know. Guys that can at least play in the NFL.
17:57Your top two picks. Keldrick Falk off the edge.
18:00Anthony Hill, middle linebacker. You go and get Carnell Tate in the first round.
18:04You add him and Wandale Robinson. There's a lot more talent here.
18:07There are guys that are supposed to be in the NFL now.
18:11That's a good way to play in the NFL, it turns out, is to have real players on the team.
18:17The problem is it was so bad last year.
18:20They had so far to come. Like, so you add Tate and Robinson.
18:24That's good at receiver. I had the Titans dead last in my skill position rankings last year.
18:29Great. You're up to 30th now. You got a long way to go.
18:33You still got to prove yourself here. And the other problem is to believe in the Titans.
18:38You got to pick at least one of two things.
18:41Either the quarterback or the coaching staff. Cam Ward, the metrics are really bad.
18:45I understand the eye test, but the preseason eye test has not been great.
18:49And I've been calling this coaching staff the unholy tridumvirate of coaches.
18:53Robert Sala, Brian Gable, and Gus Bradley. These are the three guys on other staffs that I have been targeting to fade going into the season.
19:01And now we just clustered them all together to just like ruin my life for the one season they're bound to be together.
19:07So Titans under six and a half. Easy choice for me.
19:11I think this really would be five and a half in any other division.
19:15I think the six and a half is an AFC South number.
19:19And I think that's disrespectful. AFC South is kind of good now.
19:22So I don't think that that's really it. They do have some winnable scheduled games, but you still have to win those games.
19:29They've gone under and four straight even with these low win totals.
19:33Cam Ward has to get better. He has to get better because the average rookie number in quarterback wins 3.4 games as a rookie.
19:408.3 as a sophomore. Six out of the eight last quarterbacks to go number one had eight wins or more.
19:46So if that stat hits, they go over and we lose the bet here.
19:50I'm betting against history and all this improvement. I just don't like this team.
19:54I don't like coaching staff. Sorry. Yeah. And it does kind of feel like a less premium bad version of the Cardinals.
20:01When you mentioned the AFC South, it's just really hard to project any of those other teams as being bad football teams.
20:07It's a barring health, especially Jacksonville and Houston, but Indianapolis, when they were healthy, were a really good football team last year.
20:14And I don't know how you get to the Titans being better than a healthy version of those other three teams, much like the Cardinals.
20:22And that's a much more exaggerated version. Part of the read on Arizona is just like they're never going to be better than the other three.
20:29So you're automatically in last place in your division.
20:32That's a really good place to start with unders.
20:35Um, this is one where, look, I've been buying some stock and I'm almost regretting it at this point because every news
20:41item that comes out about this team is bad.
20:44But, um, sometimes that creates a buying opportunity. The Falcons officially announced Monday that Tua is going to start week one.
20:50I saw that you immediately logged the Steelers minus three into the app about 17 seconds later.
20:56We kind of figured this was coming. So you're not in on the Tua experience.
21:00I'm also curious why you didn't just log this already.
21:03You knew, you knew that Tua, he was competing against himself, Brandon.
21:07I know he was competing against himself and still almost lost.
21:10That's how bad he was in the preseason. He almost lost to nobody.
21:14Sorry to my guy, Jack Strand out of Minnesota Moorhead, but Strand's going to play sometime this season, man.
21:20Cause they got nothing there. The quarterback situation is so bad.
21:23I almost considered like, is this quarterback situation worse than Cleveland?
21:26That's how bad I had to consider at this point.
21:29So it's a real shame. Obviously, you know, the names on offense, you drafted them all in fantasy, but you still need
21:36a quarterback to get the ball to the other guys at some point.
21:40And I know Tua has done that before, but Tua panics.
21:43I think at least at some point we'll see him.
21:46He's got to be better, but he's not been good in the NFL at all.
21:50Jack Strand was undrafted this year. So I know we're excited about the name, but you might just be DOA.
21:56Like there's good blocking, I think near top 10, but Stefanski and Tommy Reese play calling their bottom five offense each of the last three years.
22:04I know they didn't have a quarterback in Cleveland, but guess what?
22:08You don't have a quarterback in Atlanta either. So I just, I don't know where to buy on this team.
22:14And then on defense, the whole thing was sort of smoke and mirrors last year built around this speedy pass rush.
22:20It didn't work at all against some teams, some teams that hit like my Vikings.
22:25I did not enjoy that one last year, but the speedy pass rush is gone.
22:29Jalen Walker torn ACL out for the season. James Pierce, eight game suspension.
22:33That's your two draft picks last year in the first round.
22:36You don't have those for half and all of the season.
22:40So this was number 12 DVOA defense. I don't think this is anything close to that this year.
22:45I have them closer to bottom five. So it's another under for me under seven and a half and especially while two
22:52plays and wins the job by default. I think we're racking up losses early and then you have some options.
22:58Even if Penix looks decent later, you can pivot if needed.
23:01So here's, here's my pushback on this. And I'm, I just need further explanation on the, the, the lengths to which people
23:08hate on Tua in his current form. Because I get the defensive part.
23:12They're without Jalen Walker. They're without James Pierce now for at least half the season.
23:16That's a major hit to their defense. Offensively, they're as talented as anybody in the NFL with a good offensive line.
23:22Tua now gets to play indoors. One of his biggest bugaboos outside of the constant concussions and fumbles is weather.
23:28Well, we don't need to worry about that. And he's in a nice cushy division weather wise.
23:33And a lot of those teams play in domes or to at least two of them playing domes.
23:39He's one of them. Tyree kills best season came with Tua as the starting quarterback.
23:43We know that this guy can wheel and deal, but it seems like all of the stock has been sold on Tua.
23:50I, I, I just, I just wonder where this has come from that we decided that he cannot, he cannot hold up
23:57a statistically relevant offense in the NFL anymore. I mean, I think it just, it's hard to know, but with all the
24:03concussions, all the hits and just the version of Tua that we have left, like, I don't even really want to joke about it.
24:10It's sad, honestly. Like, I wish as a fan, I wish that he could just be on the couch watching these games
24:17because it doesn't feel comfortable to me watching. But I think the number of hits, the way that they've had to change
24:24his pocket presence and the mentality of that, I just think I fear it holding up.
24:28And like, to me, it speaks volumes that to me, the best version I can make for this team is, I don't want Tua out there.
24:36I don't really think Penix is that good. There's a lot of flaws there.
24:40Let's find out the mystery box with Jack Strand.
24:43And I know, like, Stucky and Kerner were talking about him.
24:46Skip offensive rookie of the year. Let's go straight for offensive player of the year, Jack Strand.
24:51That's the level we're talking about. It's like, Brandon, maybe me or you could throw to Bajon Robinson and Drake London.
24:58We could be my little pretty good. Can you throw, like, three yards out there and just get the ball to these guys?
25:05That's the hope. And I don't really think Tua or even Penix can do that.
25:09Maybe Jack Strand can. But if that's the level you're digging at to find the upper lining here, I think you might have your answer already.
25:17I do like your bet in week one, though.
25:20I think all that I am higher on the Falcons than consensus this year.
25:24But I do think going up against an older veteran defense and Aaron Rodgers before the season gets to him.
25:30I agree with your side in week one. Let's move on to the final team in this tier.
25:35The commanders feel like one of the least talked about teams in the NFL.
25:40The bloom is off the rose in a very big way.
25:43They made it to the NFC title game in 2024, and they just fell off a cliff last year.
25:49I think that was pretty easy to see that this might happen for them, even with all the money they spent in free agency.
25:56But why don't we like them now as a bounce back candidate?
25:59Yeah, because I think the team is more than Jane Daniels.
26:03And that's the problem. The offensive line already might be done with Laramie Tunsil out for the season.
26:08If you look at Brandon Thorne and PFF, the top offensive line experts out there basically downgraded them into oblivion.
26:14PFF even has them dead last offensive line. So look at the roster.
26:18If you don't have a great offensive line anymore or even a good one, I don't know if there's really an NFL
26:25starting running back or tight end on this roster right now.
26:28I kind of like the receivers just fine. But, you know, they're on the older side, Stephon Diggs and Terry McLaurin.
26:34So you have a quarterback and two receivers, and that's your offense.
26:38This is not flag football. You've got to actually use the other eight guys out there.
26:43And then the defense, I actually really like Durante Jones, the new coordinator, but just not much talent there.
26:48You sign a bunch of veterans, but you're counting on Rasul Douglas and Amik Roberts in that corner.
26:54Durante Jones is in the floor, so he's going to bring the pressure.
26:58He's going to mix it up. But as a Vikings fan, I've seen that happen.
27:02You bring the pressure and don't have the talent to get there.
27:06Your guys at the back better be doing the thing.
27:09And if Rasul Douglas and Amik Robertson aren't covering guys anymore, that gets really ugly at times.
27:14So there is another team here, great special teams, Larry Izzo, the coach there.
27:18So I like your quarterback. I like your special teams.
27:21I don't like anything else. It's another under for me, under seven and a half.
27:26And for this one, it's scheduled as much as anything.
27:29You start out at Philly, at Dallas. That is not a way I want to start my season.
27:34If I'm trying to break in new play colors, both sides of the ball.
27:38Then Seattle. Then you go to London for Indianapolis.
27:41And then you don't get rest. You know I hate that when you don't have the rest coming back for the Giants, another division game.
27:48Then at San Fran. That's real. I don't have to squint to see 0-6 on that schedule.
27:53And if you go 0-6 and now Daniels rolls his ankle, don't you just like Kyler Murriam at some point and package
28:00this thing up and try again for next year?
28:03Isn't Dan Quinn getting the walking papers? And now like David Blau might be the new coach.
28:08It's easy to see a lot of versions where this can go very sideways.
28:12Here's a stat that is relevant to a lot of teams this year.
28:16Teams with a returning head coach, but a new offensive coordinator.
28:1960 and 33 to the under since 2015 from Plus EV Analytics.
28:23That's 65%. That's Washington. It's a warning sign for some other teams.
28:26The Chargers, the Lions, the Broncos, Eagles, Seahawks. There are a lot of new play callers this year.
28:32They can't all go under, but history says you should lean that direction.
28:36It's hard to come in and mix things up.
28:38And any of these coordinators are being asked to solve problems that they don't have solutions for on the field.
28:44Yeah, I think. And to take that a step further, targeting those teams and fading them, not blindly, but just using it
28:51as a metric to fade them early in the season.
28:54While those offenses are adjusting to new offensive systems, these things, this stuff gets complicated in the NFL.
28:59The Eagles might be the outlier because they change their offensive coordinator every year.
29:04So that's true. And they usually get it right about every other year.
29:08So this could work out for them. Let's go to tier seven.
29:11Hey, it's better than last year. This is kind of an intriguing group of teams.
29:16We've got four, 25, the Las Vegas Raiders, 24, the New York Jets, 23, the New Orleans Saints, and 22, the New York Giants.
29:23Three of the four, by the way, with new in their city.
29:26I noticed that. Wow. All things new this year.
29:29New for the teams, new for the tier. New outlook on all of them.
29:33So at least we're out of the cellar now.
29:36And we're starting to talk about teams that we're kind of excited about.
29:40A lot of optimism, perhaps cautious optimism. In this tier, the Raiders go and get Clint Kubiak as their head coach.
29:46They draft Fernando Mendoza, number one overall. Kirk Cousins is starting the year, but you feel better about the direction of Las Vegas.
29:53Yeah, this is the first team we've got to that I can actually dream up a good outcome for this season.
30:00And I think it's about Clint Kubiak because he is a floor raiser.
30:03I think the offensive line is going to be a lot better this year.
30:08You get Colton Miller back healthy. He can be a top five left tackle.
30:12They signed big on Tyler Linderbaum at center. Rick Denison, the offensive line coach.
30:16If those guys can be average, now you got Ashton Gentry and rookie Mike Washington.
30:21They were tearing it up in the preseason. They averaged like seven yards a carry.
30:25It's the preseason, I know, but that system looked good.
30:28And you know I'm going to feel okay about Kirk Cousins.
30:31Like the guy can stand back there and deliver the ball.
30:35If you put him, ironically, back on Atlanta and gave him the keys to do the thing, I think he would do all right over there.
30:42And eventually it's obviously going to be Mendoza. I think those are great quarterback fits in a Kubiak system to just kind
30:49of run point and get the guys the ball.
30:52And the guy you want to get the ball is Brock Bowers.
30:55I think he's going to have a monster season.
30:58An article go up yesterday with three tight ends, Bowers, Colston Loveland, and Samuel Porta.
31:03Guys I'm betting on. So that's the bet here.
31:05I bet a bunch of Bowers stuff. Over 82 and a half receptions.
31:09I like him to lead tight ends in receiving yards plus 350 at DraftKings.
31:13I think he might lead the league in receptions at 25 to 1.
31:17I think he has a huge season. He's the guy, if I got my auction draft tonight, I'm spending the money.
31:24I'm getting me some Brock Bowers. But it might take some time, right?
31:27This offense is going to take some time. You get the rookie playing at some point.
31:32We just talked about rookie number one. Don't usually win a lot of games.
31:36And by the way, we wouldn't mention the defense for a reason because this is my second worst defense.
31:42Not much talent outside of Max Crosby who probably will get traded.
31:46I would think at some point we tried to do that already.
31:49So I think the schedule is going to get tough later on.
31:53I think they're going to lose a bunch of games.
31:56I think that's okay. You just want to see some signs of life.
32:00And I can see some signs of life from the Raiders.
32:03Hard to get in on any of these West teams in either of the divisions because they play each other, which makes for a really tough division.
32:11Not only are you playing against the teams that are in your division twice, you're also playing against the other side.
32:18Really, really tough. But I'm with you on the Raiders.
32:21I'm really excited about this team. I feel like they didn't just burn money in free agency.
32:26I feel like they spent smart money. Kobe Dean, Quay Walker, Tyler Linderbaum.
32:30And then they got Max Crosby boomeranged back to them.
32:33So I'm in. I'm in on the Raiders. We've seen Geno Smith go from the Raiders to the Jets.
32:38We like the Raiders partially because they don't have Geno.
32:41So do we like the Jets with Geno? I think we might like the Jets with Geno and perhaps some blocking.
32:48The Raiders had none of it last year. I think the Jets might have a little bit of blocking.
32:53I think Armand Membu had a really great season last year.
32:57That line is improving. There's a lot of talent on the offense if they can start to figure some things out.
33:03Reese Hall, Garrett Wilson, we know are good. First round picks on Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper.
33:08I still kind of believe in Geno. I ranked him in that sort of Goff, Darnold, Bo Nix type tier, like fringe top 20 quarterback.
33:16Probably all the guys fans of those names are not real happy to hear Geno Smith in the mix.
33:21It's a credit to Geno, not a diss on those names.
33:25The problem is we said this with the Titans.
33:27You got to believe in the quarterback and the play calling.
33:31Frank Reich, you are not my friend, sir. Frank Reich is a ruiner of NFL offenses.
33:35His last two teams have been bottom two offenses in the NFL and DVOA.
33:40And the moment he stepped off campus, the offenses immediately roared back to life and got better again.
33:45The blocking got better. Everything was roses and wonderful again.
33:48So it's hard to get there. And I've never really been the biggest Aaron Glenn guy either, the head coach.
33:54I do have to believe in Aaron Glenn, the play caller, because this year he's taking play calling back.
34:00And my belief in the Jets is a little bit Geno, but more defense.
34:04I think actually this can be like a league average defense.
34:07We're overlooking because no Quinnen, no Quincy, no sauce.
34:10But we added Demario Davis, Mika Fitzpatrick, Onyamata, Tavondre Sweat.
34:13There are guys there now. We added David Bailey, my defensive rookie of the year pick.
34:18So that's my bet here at plus 550. They were the worst turnover rate in the league, minus 19.
34:23They're bottom two red zone offense and defense. You can't help but be better than those things.
34:29Like just regression alone makes you accidentally better at those things.
34:32And I always mentioned the special teams. Chris Banjo, the number one special teams unit last year.
34:37This guy had it as the new coach there.
34:40I think this team can win some games. I don't really need a Jets over in my life.
34:45So I'm not giving you that one. But I think you play this team week to week.
34:50You can play the Titans. You play the Browns, the Raiders, Cardinals.
34:54You play the Dolphins twice. I think the Jets are going to be a pick that shows up in my portfolio a lot of weeks this season.
35:02I was thinking about that. They feel like some spread covers with the guys they have on defense.
35:07The major regression they have coming their way, zero interceptions last year.
35:11And it makes me want to play a prop immediately for week one to fade one of the guys that you've already
35:17faded on this list in Cam Ward. Jets, Titans week one.
35:21I need a number on Cam Ward to throw a pick and to just get it over with.
35:26Oh, man, that's tasty. Just get it over. You know what?
35:29Go 1.0 style. Have them throw two. And the regression just comes pouring in like an avalanche.
35:35Once that first one comes, the floodgates open. Go two.
35:38Go three. Get the whole system. Let's get the interception regression all coming at you in week one.
35:43They are going to celebrate that like they just want a playoff game when they get an interception.
35:48That's what all they'll be celebrating this year. Right.
35:51The NFC South is getting no love on this podcast.
35:54The Saints are already our third NFC South team.
35:57And we're only on tier seven. New Orleans feels like this year's trendy pick for many analysts.
36:02You're not buying it. Why? Yeah, I'm not buying it because I haven't gotten there with the offense.
36:07I haven't gotten there with Tyler Shock. We saw the late push, but the late push, the four game win streak.
36:14That was the Bucs, the Panthers, Jets and Titans.
36:16So let's see it against some other real teams.
36:19Travis Achan, I guess, is what we're saying now.
36:22I've never been a big fan of his. I like the offensive line.
36:26I like the receivers, but I'd like you to stay healthy.
36:29And those units never stay healthy. Jordan Tyson is already hurt.
36:32Olave is probably going to miss some time. The offensive line always misses time.
36:36Multiple guys on that unit. So maybe for like three games this season, it's a pretty good looking offense.
36:42But even last year, the offensive numbers were not that great.
36:45The defense actually is the unit that made the jump.
36:48Brandon Staley's unit got up to 13th in DVOA.
36:51So that's my pick here. If I'm wrong about the Saints, I think it's because the defense is good.
36:57Staley 50 to one for assistant coach of the year.
37:00I made six picks for that one. Just sprinkling some long shots.
37:03This is not one of those bad teams with good special teams, though.
37:07This is my worst special teams last year by DVOA.
37:10They didn't replace everyone. So at least they noticed.
37:13I like that. But it's just hard to find routes to a lot of wins.
37:18And even for the big push everyone got excited about late, they still didn't win that many games.
37:23So I project them to seven wins. That's actually a step forward.
37:27It's just not enough steps forward. There's one more team in this division, Brandon.
37:31We're going to get to them much later. I really like that team.
37:35Yeah. I I'm curious to hear exactly why, because it seems like there's a lot of stock selling going on with the
37:41last team that hasn't been mentioned yet. If you've been doing the math, you can figure out who that is.
37:47And if not, you'll have to stick around to hear it.
37:51Kellen Moore, 12 to one to win coach of the year.
37:54Also, if you do like the Saints might be a way to look because they're not the most talented team in the world.
38:01So if they do overperform, maybe that's a way that you can cash in on the Saints, but they do feel overly trendy at this point.
38:09Speaking of trendy. Oh, my. The New York Giants.
38:11You're on Giants Island this year. This is your official worst to first division winner pick.
38:16There's always a team that does it. So it's going to happen.
38:20Let's hear the case as to why it's the Giants.
38:23Yeah. Why not in the division that never has the back-to-back winner?
38:26I know the Eagles finally did it the last two years, but otherwise it hadn't happened in like two decades there.
38:33And it starts with John Harbaugh for me. I'm still a Harbaugh believer.
38:36This coaching staff was my number 31 group two years ago.
38:40They jumped to 13th this year. It's Harbaugh and love my special teams.
38:44So does John Harbaugh. Chris Horton comes with them to lead the unit.
38:48Top 10 unit and special teams 11 times for him.
38:51The Giants were bottom 10. They got a new punter, a new kicker, a new long snapper, new returners.
38:56They knew the problem was bad. And I know I keep ramping on this special teams thing.
39:01If you go top, a bottom 10 to top five, that's like a two-point value to the spread in my system every single week out there.
39:09That's almost a field goal, right? Like that's two-thirds of a field goal that you start the game with each time.
39:16That's why I keep talking about this. And you could even be a top 10 defense if things come together.
39:22So you lose Dexter Lawrence. But last year, this was the worst run defense in the league in a way that is so bad.
39:29It's debilitating to everything else. Who cares what your pass rush is?
39:32If we can just run the ball down your throat for eight yards every single play, it doesn't matter the rest.
39:39So DJ Reader, run stuffer. That's like in, that's his middle name.
39:42It's on his resume. That's the thing you get is DJ Reader, Shelby Harris on the line, Termaine Edmonds, great run of stuffing linebacker, Arbel Reese at linebacker.
39:51I think there's going to be a difference maker right away.
39:54Now the pass rush matters because Abdul Carter is ready to break out.
39:58Everyone loves Abdul Carter. The numbers were great. Brian Burns and Thibodeau.
40:01Now you get pass rush that matters because your run defense wasn't horrendous.
40:05And I think Shane Bowen, defensive coordinator last year to Denard Wilson this year, that might be the biggest defensive coaching improvement out there as well.
40:13So I see a big leap coming from the defense.
40:16Offensive line with Andrew Thomas healthy has been pretty good.
40:19And look, I don't want to invest in Matt Nagy or Greg Roman.
40:23I'd put them in the Titans group of coaches.
40:26I'm not super excited there, but with the Ravens, with the Chiefs, I need ceiling.
40:30With the Giants, I need floor. Can you just run the ball a little bit?
40:35Can you move the chains a couple of times?
40:37I think those guys have been in the league a long time because they've proven they can do those things.
40:43That's not what I want on the Chiefs and the Ravens.
40:47I'll take it on the Giants. So you go out, you add a few names, Patrick Gaccard at fullback, Isaiah likely at
40:53tight end, guys that are familiar guys that work in this sort of system.
40:58And I don't love Jackson Dart just yet. But can you sort of move the chains, play some defense and then take some shots down the field?
41:06I don't love Dart because he's sort of like Caleb Williams light to me where go make the big play.
41:12But then you miss a few after that on this version of a team that might work a little bit where it's
41:18like, OK, can you make a couple big plays a game enough to hang in there the rest of the game and then go steal one late?
41:26That's the version of Giants that ends up good.
41:29It's a clear positive regression team. They won four last year by Pythagorean.
41:33They should have won seven games. So this is really a seven win team from last year.
41:38And they were one in seven and one score games.
41:41They blew it to the entire NFC North where they led late in the game to Denver and to Dallas.
41:47They led in the fourth quarter, five of those six in the final minute, three of those times schedule is much better starting out.
41:54I'm taking them to win the NFC East six to one at DraftKings worst to first.
41:59You can take just the over seven and a half if you want.
42:03Even that, let me just tell you, is only the third over the Giants would be cashing in 16 seasons.
42:09So we are betting against history here. But I like the Giants, Giants Island.
42:13Yeah. Rarely do you get value on a really popular team from the biggest city in the country.
42:19So that could be part of the reason why a lot of hype coming in on the Giants.
42:24You do have to sort of say in spite of Jackson Dart, I would be more comfortable if Greg Roman was the
42:31offensive coordinator because I know all he wants to do is run.
42:34I think Matt Nagy is going to want Jackson Dart to be a real quarterback, and I don't know that he can be.
42:41That makes me very nervous about what the Giants can be.
42:44Let's move to tier six stuck in no man's land.
42:47A three team tier comprised of some kind of boring teams.
42:51The Indianapolis Colts at 21, the Green Bay Packers at 20 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 19.
42:56The Colts started seven and one with Daniel Jones last year, but finished oh and five and then missed the playoffs.
43:02Daniel Jones looks like he's set to go in week one, which is a minor miracle given the injury that he's coming
43:09back from that Achilles takes a while for these athletes.
43:12Which version of the team are we expecting in 2026?
43:15Because it was Jekyll and Hyde last year. Yeah, I think we don't know.
43:19I think is the answer. So I'm kind of just putting them right in the middle here.
43:24Like we kind of got last year, we got Jekyll and we got Hyde.
43:28And I think we're going to get some of each.
43:31They finished top five DVOA. They're top seven run and pass offensively.
43:35That to me is a credit to Shane Steichen.
43:38It's a credit to the offensive line. This is my number three line, the elite run blocking, probably the best in the NFL.
43:45But the whole thing is a Daniel Jones question.
43:47And we don't know because last year, even healthy, even when the offense was setting records, he was still like the 20th best quarterback.
43:54And his career tells us to be skeptical. And now injury history tells us to be skeptical coming off the Achilles.
44:01On defense, it's Sauce Gardner and Traverius Ward, who we haven't really even seen together yet.
44:06I've never been a big Luana Rumo guy. And then the schedule.
44:09You start out with Jones, who we haven't even seen in the preseason.
44:13And it's Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston to start the season.
44:16So I just I can't invest in that right now.
44:19We don't know if your quarterback can play and you're facing the Ravens, Chiefs and Texans.
44:24I can't buy in right now. My bets here, I bet Daniel Jones 22 to one for comeback.
44:29And I bet Quentin Nelson for protector at 4% on the prediction market.
44:33Just a team I don't know much about yet.
44:36And we'll have to wait and see more. A lot of injuries last year.
44:40And the secondary is the that's the part of the equation that seems to be forgotten.
44:45It wasn't just the offense. Let's move to the Packers at 20 on the list are definitely an eyebrow raise for some.
44:51Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love have made it to three straight postseasons.
44:55Do you think that streak ends here? I do.
44:58I believe in Matt LaFleur. I believe in Jordan Love.
45:01And I believe in virtually nothing else about this team.
45:04And that is the problem. The core is good.
45:06The rest is bad. I think the three most important guys after that is Micah Parsons, who we'll see.
45:12We don't know when and what version. We don't know.
45:15Josh Jacobs, not an injury guy, but other things guy.
45:18We don't know when we're going to see him.
45:21And then Tucker Craft looks like we'll see him soon.
45:24But what version do we see with them? I've got bottom five offensive line in my rankings.
45:29This is a team that's just like top 12 offensive line every single year.
45:33It's infuriating as a Vikings fan. They just grab dudes, put them out there, and they block well.
45:39And that is not the case now. So you have this run-heavy offense that can't block and doesn't have a running back.
45:45So what does that look like? And how does that impact Jordan Love this year, who I believe in but needs some help around him?
45:53And then the defense, it's a paper tiger until Parsons gets back on the field.
45:57So later in the year, when you get Parsons back and maybe Jacobs back and maybe Craft has worked back in, I
46:04can get back to believing in the Packers. But for right now, this is the easiest no-bet team on the board for me.
46:11On the futures, you just can't invest when there's no Parsons, no Jacobs, no Tucker.
46:15So my bet here is Packers last in the division at plus 350 at DraftKings.
46:20But even that, you're starting at Vikings. But if you win that one, then home Jets and Falcons.
46:25You might be 3-0 while you're missing these guys if things work out.
46:29So I've been searching, Brandon. I want to know how do I fade this team that I'm out on?
46:35I haven't really found it because I believe so much in Love and LeFleur that I don't really want to be on
46:41the hook for it later in the year. So maybe you sort of play the stock market and buy in and sell and buy.
46:49And maybe that's the way to go on this team.
46:52But I definitely don't want long-term stuff here. Yeah.
46:54The odds for them to finish last in the division plus 350, I can definitely be walked into that, especially with the strength around them.
47:02It goes back to a conversation we were having earlier.
47:05You're dealing with the Lions, the Bears, and improved Minnesota Vikings.
47:08Somebody's got to finish at the bottom of that division.
47:11The Lions did it last year, and it's hard to envision.
47:14So they could definitely be that team. The Packers aren't used to being stuck in the middle.
47:19The Steelers very much are. They have lived there for over a decade at this point.
47:24More of the same from Pittsburgh. Even without Tomlin, it looks like you got Mike McCarthy.
47:29I can't believe we live in a world where Mike McCarthy is coaching Aaron Rodgers on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
47:35But here we are. How do we bet the Pittsburgh Steelers, if at all?
47:39Yeah, I think you bet them week one against the Falcons like we did already.
47:43And otherwise, you just kind of expect the Steelers again.
47:46Like, we decided to run it back. I always like the defense.
47:50TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig off the edge.
47:53Cam Hayward still somehow there on the line. Jamel Dean at corner on top of Jalen Ramsey, Joey Porter.
47:59There's a lot of talent here. And I think this could be a really good, maybe even top five defense.
48:05Patrick Graham, the new coordinator. Another one of my bets here.
48:0880 to 1 for assistant coach of the year.
48:11The defense is good. The offense is eh. We don't really know.
48:14Here's the DVOA the last four years. 16, 19, 15, and 18.
48:18That is eh middle of the pack as you can get.
48:21And now we brought in Mike McCarthy, who's eh as a coach and a play caller.
48:26As well. So, I like Zach Frazier at the center.
48:29I like the line improving. Can we get a run game?
48:32Could McCarthy elevate Rodgers with some receivers? With Pittman in tow?
48:35Maybe. I don't really need to tell myself that story.
48:38And for like the zillion straight year, the Steelers have a really soft schedule to start the year.
48:44And then a really bad schedule to end the year.
48:47So, it's just hard time getting here. Here's one of those stats here.
48:51That's a warning sign. Since 2000, 25 teams with double digit wins lost four times or more by double digits.
48:57The Steelers are one of them. Over half of those teams, 56%, dropped by three wins or more, an average of five wins the next season.
49:05So, the Steelers won 10. That means you might drop down to seven or even five.
49:09Heresy under Mike Tomlin can't go under 500. No more stat for Mike McCarthy.
49:14You might do the thing. I might add the Chargers and Niners fit this trend as well.
49:19So, be careful. If you lose ugly to some teams, history says you might lose some more games the next year.
49:25The very first bet that I made when odds popped up many, many months ago was the Pittsburgh Steelers under eight and a half wins.
49:32You're right about the meh on this roster. Hey, let's go out and get Rico Dowdle, the most average running back in the league.
49:40Hey, let's go get Michael Pittman, the most average number one wide receiver in the NFL.
49:44There's just a lot. There's a lot of meh on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
49:48Oldest roster in the league, too. So, that doesn't bode well to the schedule then stiffening up as the season goes along.
49:55More of Brandon Anderson's power rankings, tiers five through one.
49:58But first, a word about a top tier sports app, DraftKings.
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50:41Football season is on the horizon, so get in while things are hot.
50:45DraftKings, the crown is yours. Time for tier five.
50:47We need to have a conversation tier. We've got four within this one.
50:51Some really good teams that I am surprised to see listed where they are.
50:55So I'm going to need some explanations, Brandon. The Buffalo Bills at 18, the Detroit Lions at 17, Denver Broncos at 16, and the Jacksonville Jaguars at 15.
51:04I think we have reached the headliner here. I had to scratch my eyes twice when I saw this on the note card.
51:11The Bills are the AFC favorites among the AFC favorites.
51:14You have them as the 18th ranked team in the NFL, bottom half of the league.
51:18We need to have a conversation here. So where do we start with them?
51:23I am baffled. Yeah, it's obviously not about Josh Allen.
51:26He's my number one quarterback. It's about everything else here.
51:29I am not a Joe Brady believer as a play caller and now a kind of baffling head coaching hire to finally
51:35move on from the Sean McDermott era and then stay in the house.
51:39I don't love the play calling because it's so run heavy.
51:42And you have Josh Allen. Let Josh Allen do the thing.
51:46McDermott's team have gone over in seven of nine seasons.
51:49And that's with Josh Allen, a bunch of those.
51:51And with like double digit win totals, that to me is a coach that is maximizing things.
51:57That is floor raising. Now McDermott is gone. Chris Tabor, the special teams coach.
52:01He's gone. I think that's a big drop off.
52:03I have this a bottom five special teams unit.
52:06And so the offense is going to be good, right?
52:09Joe Brady, whether I like him or not, the offense with Josh Allen will be good.
52:14The run game will be good. You lost Aaron Cromer at coaching, another offensive line coach there.
52:19So more slow fade the wrong direction. My worry is the defense.
52:23I think the defense with McDermott had a floor.
52:25I didn't like the ceiling. I didn't like the playoff version.
52:29Seven defense by talent on the roster. And everybody loves Jim Leonard, the new defensive play caller.
52:34You got to have the dogs, man. You got to actually have some talent to go do your aggressive system.
52:40And I think that I understand the step back to step toward Jim Leonard.
52:44I don't think they have the guys yet. I think we might need a season of transition to get the guys here.
52:51And I think McDermott maximized his guys defensively. I don't know if Leonard can do that.
52:55We haven't seen it yet. So coming out swinging here, shouldn't be surprised at number 18.
53:00Buffalo Bills to miss the playoffs. Plus 280 is my bet.
53:04I wanted to make this bet with the Chiefs last year and I chickened out.
53:08Because how do you bet on Patrick Mahomes to miss the playoffs?
53:12I didn't do it. And then it wasn't even close.
53:15It was like an easy bet the entire season.
53:17So I'm doing it this time. My numbers have the Bills missing the playoffs.
53:22It's a rough start. It's at Houston. And you're, I think, should be underdogs in that game.
53:27Spoiler, I will be on the Texans side in that one.
53:30You know, a physical game. And then a short week Thursday night for your emotional home debut, the new stadium against the Lions.
53:37You could lose that one too. And then Chargers, Patriots at the Rams.
53:41It's a brutal first five games. If I'm right that the defense is not ready, they might not really be ready against that group of teams.
53:49And it could be shocking early on. It could be two and three or even one and four.
53:54And I think the team around Josh Allen is not a Super Bowl contending team right now.
53:59And I have to fade the Buffalo Bills. Wow.
54:02Clip that, throw it on social. That will do some numbers.
54:05Yeah. They add Bradley Chubb, but he wasn't all that good in Miami.
54:09So just 36 sacks last year. Defense could be an issue again.
54:13On your ranking shows this offseason, you consistently seem to be lower on the Lions than consensus.
54:18This quarterback, offensive line, coaching, ankle biting, kneecap biting, Dan Campbell.
54:21Come on. So it's probably not a surprise to see them in the middle of the pack here.
54:26Where do you land on Detroit? Yeah. I'm just worried that this team is kind of trickling in the wrong direction.
54:33Offensive line. This was the number one offensive line two years ago.
54:36I have them 17th now. So technically below league average while Cade Mays, the new center, is out.
54:42If the interior isn't good, now is Jared Goff a little bit worse.
54:46He has been bad under interior pressure. We know about the weather stuff with Goff, interior pressure.
54:51Most quarterbacks are bad against that, but I'm worried there.
54:54The run game slowly fading a little bit. No Ben Johnson last year.
54:58No elite run game. And now David Montgomery has gone to split with Jameer Gibbs.
55:02How does he hold up? And then the defense.
55:05I kind of like the defense, but the secondary is always banged up and already starting the year.
55:10Brian Branch, Kirby Joseph. When are we going to see those guys, if ever, at safety?
55:15So I just have a lot of concerns here.
55:18It still ends up a top half of the league offense, but closer to average than top five.
55:23I'm seeing a lot of top fives out there.
55:26Drew Petsing. I need to see it calling the plays for this unit.
55:30And I need to see Dan Campbell without Ben Johnson.
55:33That's the version of the coaching staff I need to see.
55:36But I got through all that. I was skeptical about everything Detroit.
55:40And then I got to the schedule, which is like one of the softest schedules I've ever seen for any team.
55:46You get the fourth play schedule. Your variable games.
55:49Each team gets three games that are different than your division opponents.
55:52The Packers, their games are Cowboys, Rams, Texans. The Bears get the Eagles, Seahawks, and Jaguars.
55:57Detroit, Giants, Cardinals, and Titans. Thank you for the exchange.
56:00That could be a two or three win swing on just those three games alone.
56:05The Lions have an insanely easy schedule. So even though I don't believe in the team, the schedule keeps them in the mix.
56:11And look, even not believing, I still think it's a good team.
56:15I just don't think it's a great team. So my pick for the Lions is one of my two defensive player of the year picks.
56:23Aiden Hutchinson plus 950. I think is a bullseye for my criteria on that one.
56:27I can't totally fade Detroit because of the schedule, but I'm going to have to look for my spots on this team.
56:34Yeah, that interesting nugget there with the schedule of those variable games.
56:37They look to take the NFC North for the third time in four seasons for a division that's this tough.
56:43Very impressive. But is this newfangled culture in Detroit a real thing?
56:47Or is it a mirage? Which a blip that we saw with Ben Johnson is one of the best offensive play callers.
56:53We shall see. Now, this is one that one.
56:56I mean, I get it. A little tepid on the Lions.
56:59All right. You know, they've gone through transition, some offensive line regression over the last couple of years.
57:05The Broncos. We are really going to piss people.
57:08Some people off here. The bills are out. The Lions are mediocre.
57:11Let's throw the Broncos into the mix. One of my personal favorite teams to lean into in the NFL season.
57:17I thought you were all in on the Jalen Waddell experiment.
57:21So what is this? Why so low on the Denver Broncos?
57:24Yeah, I continue to be underwhelmed by the Broncos.
57:27They won 14. Pythagorean probably under 11 wins last year.
57:30And how do you get there? 12 and 3 in one score games last year, including the postseason.
57:35They were 16th in EPA per play through three quarters.
57:38They were top five in the fourth quarter in overtime.
57:41That is the sort of metric I might expect from like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.
57:46Not Bo Nix. I'm not ready to give that to Bo Nix where I'm like, okay, just play average teams, average games,
57:52and then we'll just let Bo go win it for us at the end.
57:57And I know it feels like, yeah, but he has.
58:00Great. Well, history tells me that that's not how things keep going.
58:03And if 12 and 3 turns back into like 8 and 7 where you expect it or even the wrong direction, then guess what?
58:10You're not a 14 win team or even close to it anymore.
58:14The defense, I think it's more top 10 than top three type defense.
58:18They lost a lot of guys off the defensive front.
58:21Vance Joseph. I still am a bit skeptical on if you don't have this overwhelming number of bodies to come flying at you, which he doesn't anymore.
58:29Now, how do things hold up? Can that secondary hold up?
58:32Can the young guys next to Sertan hold up?
58:35So offensively, that's where there is some upside. I like Jalen Waddle.
58:39I love Jalen Waddle. I took him 125 to 1 offensive player of the year.
58:43I bet him 60 to 1 to lead the league in receiving yards.
58:47I love his upside here, completing the receiving room.
58:50And now you have Davis Webb, the new play caller.
58:53Sean Payton is saying, I'm out. You call the plays now.
58:56That's a big deal. And I think it raises the ceiling, but it lowers the floor too.
59:01We don't really know what this is going to look like.
59:04So I think it makes him a bit more volatile.
59:07I'm still going to back Denver also to miss the playoffs at plus 134.
59:12Part of it is a schedule here. At the Chiefs, week one, Monday night, Jacksonville Rams at Niners at Chargers and Seahawks.
59:18Again, you could be like two and four after that stretch.
59:22And I'm big on the Chiefs this year. We'll get to them a little bit later.
59:26In the last 32 years, 39 teams won at least 13 games, but did not make the Super Bowl.
59:3235 of those 39 got worse the next season by an average of 3.7 wins.
59:37That kind of fits the trend with Denver, where you're going to lose some of those one score games.
59:42Knicks was one in six in one score games, by the way, two years ago.
59:47So don't tell me that he's going to win all those every time.
59:51I think this is a quality team that can keep you in games, but has to win the close ones.
59:57And last year they had the horseshoe up their butt all year.
60:00I don't know if they do this year. That opening schedule is brutal.
60:04Chiefs, Rams, Jags, 49ers, Chargers, Seahawks go three and three.
60:07And I will feel good about that. But Brandon has them to miss the playoffs at plus 134.
60:13That was your 16th ranked team. 15 is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
60:16And if I'm not mistaken, the Jags fit that 13 win.
60:19No Super Bowl trend to just like Denver does.
60:22Looks like you're expecting some regression for the Jacksonville Jaguars, even though they get to add Travis Hunter to the defense.
60:28I think that's what he's going to do this year.
60:31Yeah, we don't really know. It looks like he'll play some defense and not receiver.
60:36How about some more terrible stats for Jacksonville? You're right.
60:39That trend we just said with the Broncos fits.
60:41Here's a couple more teams that won 12 games and beat their win total by at least three.
60:4762, 26, and a four to the under since 2003.
60:5071 percent. By the way, that's Denver as well on that one.
60:53Teams are improved by seven wins or more since 1990.
60:56Declined by almost four wins the following season, prorated to a 17-game schedule.
61:00So just improving a lot is a good signal that you're probably going to come back the other direction after that.
61:07And with Jacksonville, there's more signal. They jumped two years ago from dead last in takeaways defensively to second most last year.
61:13They had so many turnovers that they forced 22 more takeaways last year.
61:17That usually comes way back toward the mean as well.
61:20There are six and three in one-score games right on cue.
61:23You make the playoffs, you lose a one-score game.
61:26Regression came in a hurry on that one. And then they played 41 percent of their snaps against a backup quarterback last year.
61:33That big stretch late in the season when they were beating everyone, two of their final nine games came against a real starting quarterback.
61:40And let me just tell you, those real starting quarterbacks were Bo Nix and Cam Ward.
61:45So that's the level of teams you were beating up on.
61:48I like this team. I actually have a hard time figuring out what do I do with them.
61:54But that regression signal is so strong. I love Liam Cohen.
61:57I think Trevor Lawrence is breaking out. I love Parker Washington in the receiving group.
62:02I bet him. I think Chris Rodriguez could lead them in touchdowns.
62:0511 to 1 at DraftKings. That's my bet for this team.
62:08They remind me some of the Bengals in the past where your offensive line, I have them bottom three here.
62:14If the line is so bad and you can't really run the ball that well, you get a cap on the ceiling offensively.
62:21And defense is actually where this unit really stood out last year.
62:25Offense gets the attention. Anthony Campanelli's defense was top seven DVOA.
62:28I think a lot of that was a turnovers.
62:31I like what they're doing, but the talent doesn't match that to me.
62:35Jacksonville is under in 12 of the last 15 years.
62:38They only have since 2010 as a franchise four seasons with more than six wins.
62:42Just doing anything back to back for this franchise would be a big deal.
62:47Even 500 again. So to me, this maybe is my most baffling team.
62:50As I try to figure things I actually have in my power ratings, they're higher than this.
62:56They're probably three, four spots up. I'm trusting my instincts.
62:59My spidey senses say that there's something off here.
63:01So I'm just trying to be careful with Jacksonville.
63:04Yeah. One way to overcome regression is to have really good quarterback play and really good coaching.
63:09They should have both of those things, but boy, you're right.
63:12Those numbers like a neon sign driving down the highway, the way that those things look.
63:17Chris Rodriguez, Jags touchdown leader, 11 to one on draft Kings is Brandon's best bet.
63:22Let's go to tier four gunning for the top five teams.
63:25This is the biggest tier that you have. We'll start with the Cincinnati Bengals followed by the Chargers, Vikings, Bucks, and then the Cowboys at number 10.
63:33So if the last section was teams that you're not really believing in, these are the teams that you're choosing to believe in more than consensus.
63:41This is where real optimistic value lies is right in this tier.
63:44If you like overs, if you like division winner bets, this is probably your sweet spot on the podcast.
63:50Is this the first time that you have ever believed in the Cincinnati Bengals?
63:54I think it might be the first time ever.
63:57I really, I wanted to believe even more in this team here.
64:01I have them bottom of the tier. So even my belief in the Bengals is still some skepticism too.
64:06It's the best I could do. I believe in the line is getting better.
64:11Could they be a league average offensive line? Not a bad one anymore.
64:15The run game is trending up. Maybe finally the under center stuff is real.
64:19Can we finally give some easy buttons to the offense?
64:22There's a lot of things I tried to talk myself into, but we still have a way to go.
64:27We know the offense is going to be good.
64:30I don't need to tell you about that. Joe Burrow, T Higgins, Jamar Chase.
64:34Why did I say them in that order? I don't know.
64:38Jamar Chase, then T Higgins, obviously. Joe Burrow to throw 400 yards in any game this season at minus 130 draft Kings.
64:44That's my bet for this team. I think that should be more like minus 300.
64:49So if you want an easier one, that's an easier one here.
64:52But I can't get too far offensively till I see them actually do the under center and all the play action stuff we want.
65:00And I still need to see the defense. They were 30th last year.
65:03Then you lose your best defender in Trey Hendrickson.
65:06Now you add Dexter Lawrence, Boyamafe, Brian Cook. There are guys there, but they have a long way to come.
65:12So offensive line, defense, coaching, I have them all ranked low.
65:15How low is the question? Are you 30th or are you 24th or are you 18th?
65:20And those things matter. Bad and worse and terrible are not the same version.
65:24Terrible was the answer last year. I think they can be bad this year.
65:29If they can even be average, I'm probably still a little bit too low.
65:33But under Zach Taylor, for the most part, Bengals are under in eight of the last 10 years.
65:38It's a tough opening schedule. Tampa, Houston, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville.
65:41Winnable games, but we've seen Cincinnati not be great early.
65:44Really soft schedule late. So this is a team that I'm watching.
65:48I'm interested. I'm a little skeptical because history says to be.
65:51But I might have to be ready to buy if you can kind of survive September and actually look the part.
65:57If this defense has improved, we know what the offense can produce.
66:01And it can be scary. But that bet that you have Burrow 400 plus passing yards in any game, he might get that week one.
66:08He might. They are not elite defensively. It seems like the Chargers are everyone's favorite sleeper.
66:13They add Mike McDaniel to the coaching staff. So things should improve offensively.
66:17We'll see if we ever get the quarterback that was promised in Justin Herbert, which he has shown glimpses of at times.
66:24Just not when it matters. But 13 overall for them, it feels like maybe you haven't quite gotten there on the Chargers.
66:30Yeah, another one that I really wanted to get there, but I just can't quite go all the way.
66:36The whole premise here is the coaching leap and the offensive line leap.
66:40I'm in on Mike McDaniel. Hasn't changed. I think that's going to be awesome.
66:44I do think it's going to take some time, though.
66:47It's going to be a very different system. It's not going to be Tua anymore.
66:52Justin Herbert's a very different quarterback. So how do you build?
66:55How do you make the system fit around it?
66:58You don't have Tyree Kill or Jalen Waddell on this team.
67:01You have much lesser receivers, even as much as I like Lad McConkie.
67:05So what do you build? And then the problem is the offensive line.
67:09The premise of them making a big leap forward already in doubt because Tyler Biotish out for the season at center.
67:15So you have three new interior linemen. You have a rookie center.
67:19You're starting Rayshon Slater. We still haven't even seen play.
67:22We don't know how healthy he's going to be.
67:24Joel can't block everybody. So how much can the line be better?
67:28My premise was I thought that could be a top five line.
67:31There's no way that's a top five line right now.
67:34And I think McDaniel's system will help. But where does the offense get to and how long does it take to get there is the question.
67:42Because defensively, Jesse Minter was really good maximizing talent.
67:45This is not the most talented defense. So Chris O'Leary, the new play caller, he's in the Minter tree.
67:51But great. You're not the tree. You're the branches.
67:53You've got to actually call the plays and show you can maximize those guys the same way.
67:58And then the schedule is the last problem. Cardinals Raiders.
68:01Great. That's how I'd like to break in my new coaching staff and figure things out.
68:06Then here's the next week three through nine schedule.
68:09At Buffalo. At Seattle. Denver. At Kansas City. At the Rams.
68:12Houston. At Baltimore. Unrelenting. Just a brutal schedule. I talk about those three variable games.
68:17Their second place schedule gave them Houston, Baltimore, and Tampa in those divisions.
68:21That is the toughest draw possible. They just got unlucky.
68:24Like the good teams finished second and they were one of them.
68:27So now they get the other good teams on their schedule.
68:31So to me, I like the Chargers. I'm interested.
68:33I think their upside's already been priced into the market.
68:36So I don't think you can really invest here.
68:39My bet is on the guys on offense. I'm taking O'Mearian Hampton and all my fantasy leagues.
68:44I want Lad McConkie stock. So I took Lad McConkie.
68:47150 to one offensive player of the year. 62 and a half receptions.
68:51I'll take the over on that one. We mentioned Waddle earlier.
68:54He's another offensive player of the year. Bet 125 to one.
68:58Nico Collins, 40 to one. And Parker Washington, 400 to one.
69:01That was my OPOI bets. I want the offensive stock, but I think this might be a team I have to play in fantasy and not betting world.
69:09Which is, has definitely been the case for the Chargers in the past.
69:13You could even go back to the Phillip Rivers days, Ladini and Tomlinson, Antonio Gates.
69:18It seems like the Chargers are always delivering the goods in the regular season and not much beyond that.
69:23And so we come to your Minnesota Vikings all the way up to number 12, Kevin O'Connell with an improved quarterback and elite defense.
69:31I can be talked into this. Are you drinking the purple Kool-Aid on your Minnesota Vikings?
69:35You got to drink the purple Kool-Aid, right? That's, that's the fun of going into the new season.
69:41But more importantly, this is not fandom. If you've listened long time, you know, I'm actually the pessimist on my teams.
69:47Typically in sports. I think the betting market is just not pricing enough optimism into this team.
69:52I think the odds are wrong on the Vikings.
69:55This offense has top three skill players. You know about the receivers.
69:59Now you have Jawan Jennings for depth. You got Josh Oliver and T.J.
70:02Hawkinson. Complimentary tight ends. I think the running back room can be good.
70:06The offensive line. Christian Derrissaw finally looks healthy and good.
70:09Now please stay on the field, Christian Derrissaw. I think that could be a top 10 offensive line.
70:15Frank Smith adding to the play calling. His creative run game really unlocked Jordan Mason late in the season.
70:20KOC has not had a great run game there.
70:23Actually, offensively, the Vikings have averaged 22nd in DVOA under O'Connell.
70:26No top 14s yet. So I need to see it.
70:29Like for all the credit we give him with his play calling, that's not been good quarterbacks yet.
70:35I need to see it. And it's telling perhaps.
70:38I just named every player on the offense except for the one named Kyler Murray.
70:42What do we get from Kyler? I don't know.
70:45But here's what we got last year. 10 games of J.J.
70:48McCarthy, 5 Carson Wentz, and 2 Max Grosmer. Whatever we get from Kyler, even if it's like league average, is a ginormous
70:55step up from whatever is lower than 32nd, which is what the Vikings gave us at quarterback last year.
71:00You said elite defense. I don't think I'm ready to call the Vikings elite defense.
71:05Brian Flores is elite. The talent here is not.
71:08I think it's good and bad that you went out and bring back Harrison Smith, and you got Kyle Van Noy.
71:14Great. I'd love to see those veterans out there.
71:17Why did we need them? The talent is not great on this roster.
71:21There's a lot of leftover parts here. This is actually a bottom 10 talent defense in my ratings, but top 10 defense
71:27when you add in the Flores effect, that could lead for some weak spots and times.
71:32So I'm in on the Vikings. I think you have to buy the price.
71:36This is my first division bet I'm giving out here on the pod today.
71:40Vikings to win the North plus 510. To me, no brainer bet.
71:4416% implied. I have this entire division within about one win of each other, and I think the Vikings are the healthiest team right now.
71:51Packers, no Parsons, no Tucker, no Jacobs. Detroit, the secondary is banged up.
71:55You're missing your center. Chicago is missing its left tackle, and their secondary is banged up.
72:00The Vikings are good to go. Oh, they're the healthy team, and you want the over, over 8.5?
72:06Sure, I like that as well. I think this is the more aggressive way to bet the Vikings because in this division, they should be in the mix.
72:14I have this as almost double the value of a ticket.
72:17I think plus 510 is way too long. This is my second favorite division bet.
72:22There's one more we're about to get to. I like even better.
72:25Yeah, I like this one too. I have placed this as well.
72:29This is going to be a fun bet to be on this year, and the fact that they had a winning record despite having J.J.
72:36McCarthy for most of the season, that says a lot about the Minnesota Vikings.
72:41So from the Vikings to an old division foe from back in the NFC Central days, there's a throwback for the kids.
72:47Go and look that up. That means that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are your best division bet on the board, 12 spots
72:54higher than the next best NFC South team in the New Orleans Saints.
72:58So break out the creamsicles. What do you love about this team and their potentially lame duck coach?
73:03I really think that people are overlooking this team.
73:06The NFC South has been the punchline for so long that I think we're just grouping the Bucs into that, and I
73:13think they belong in any tier above the rest of the team's multiple tiers in my power rankings here.
73:18This is the best offense and the best defense in the division, and I don't really think there's even an argument otherwise.
73:25Vita Veya is back. That alone gives you the great run defense.
73:28Your front seven adds Ruben Bain. Todd Bull is going to have a lot of fun getting these guys.
73:34I think that defense can be a fringe top 10 unit.
73:37The offense, I think, might have the best offensive line in the league once they are healthy.
73:43Now with Tristan Wurfs leading the way, I bet him for protector of the year.
73:47Agbuka and Godwin still at receiver. I think Bucky Irving is underrated, and you get Kenneth Gainwell.
73:52So two underrated backs there. Offensively, I think there is a huge health swing coming here that gets a bit missed here.
73:59Offensive line, their starters missed 32 games last year.
74:01My guy Cody Mouth missed almost the entire season.
74:04Worse than Gedeke, the two tackles, missed some time.
74:0732 games. That's basically two of your five starters missing the entire season.
74:11Bucky and Godwin missed 14 games. Baker didn't miss games.
74:14They kind of wish he had because he was playing hurt for most of the time because that did not go well down the stretch.
74:21So getting those guys healthy, I think, is a huge, huge swing.
74:25I think this could be a fringe top 10 offense with the fringe top 10 defense.
74:30Now the special teams is not good, but in this division, might still be the best unit on special teams too because
74:36I've disced the other special teams on all the other three teams there too.
74:40So plus 180 to win the NFC South. This is not just my favorite division bet.
74:45Let me be clear. This is my favorite bet on this entire podcast.
74:49This is a multiple unit bet for me. I'll probably go three units on this one.
74:54That's like my max bet size plus 180. I have them three games clear of the Saints and the rest of the division.
75:01Here's for reference. I only have one other division in football where a team is even one game clear of the rest of the division.
75:08That's how far ahead I have the Bucs than the rest of the division.
75:13And 36% implied. I put this north of 70%.
75:15That is the level of confidence I have. So I'm not playing the over eight and a half plus 122.
75:21You could go under eight and a half and win the division.
75:25We just saw the Panthers do that last year.
75:28Why am I taking that one? Last year, I played the under nine and a half.
75:32We hit that at eight. I projected eight wins last year.
75:36This year, I think we flipped. Why did we flip this thing and lower the win total when they're healthier this year with better guys?
75:43So I think we're getting value on the number.
75:46We're getting value on the division. I think the Bucs are alive for the NFC one seed, 30 to one.
75:52I bet that a little bit. I had worst protector of year.
75:56You're a lame duck, Todd Bowles. I bet him for coach of the year at 2% if that stuff all hits.
76:02I think the Bucs could be in the NFC championship game at the end of January, and I would not blink.
76:08Wow. Lay in the wood on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
76:11You're right about that offensive line. Overlooked how good that line can be when they're completely healthy, and that raises that floor
76:18that you're talking about for Tampa Bay quite a bit.
76:21We finally hit the top 10, and like so many others, including myself, it seems like you're in on the Dallas Cowboys.
76:27I am terrified at how public this has become.
76:30I thought I was going contrarian a couple of months ago when I went in on the Cowboys.
76:35Not the case anymore. America is back on America's team.
76:38Why are you? I already have regrets. I thought this was going to be like our own little fun island, the Brandon Island.
76:45No, it's like an entire continent. Everybody is in on the Cowboys.
76:49I think I'm cautiously starting to tiptoe back out of the water a little bit because we don't get into the games,
76:56and we already got the big injury in the offensive line, which I'll get to in a second.
77:01So it has to start with the defense here.
77:04Christian Parker, the new play caller from the Fangio tree.
77:07The defense has to be better because they were last in DVOA last year.
77:11But it's not just the play caller. The personnel is so much better.
77:15I think they're better at 9 of 11 positions from last year's starting lineup on defense after trading Micah Parsons.
77:21You get the full season of Quinn and Williams.
77:23They were already better with him on the field last year.
77:27Caleb Downs, I think, is an immediate impact guy in the first round.
77:31Rashad Gary, Dee Winters. I think you get better play from Deron Bland at corner and overshown, who's healthy now.
77:37I think the defense can be a lot better, but they're being better than 32nd.
77:41How better can you be and how long does it take to get there?
77:45Dallas has a rough schedule. It's unrelenting all year long.
77:48The defense is going to get tested very often on TV while we're all watching because it's the Cowboys.
77:54The offense we know is really good. Clayton Adams got this run game going.
77:58I think Dak is hilariously the modern day Tony Romo.
78:01I think like a perennial top eight quarterback that gets no respect ever.
78:05This is my top receiving unit in the league with CeeDee Lamb and Pickens and Florinoy.
78:10The third guy, I think, is what puts them over the top.
78:14The problem is the injury now. Tyler Smith at guard.
78:17I know it's a boring name. That is the most talented lineman on this team, and he's out now four to six games.
78:24That might include the Ravens, the Texans, the Bucs.
78:26That's weeks three to five. That's not the games I want to be missing my top offensive lineman for.
78:32The interior is the strength. The tackles, I already don't trust.
78:35They're not great pass protecting. So if the blocking is not as good, the run game is not as good.
78:41How does the offense hold up? Healthy Dak Prescott has a top 10 offense, six of seven seasons, but it's usually like sixth to 10th.
78:49People are talking about this team like a top five offense, like a top three offense.
78:54I don't know if they can actually get that high without Dak taking a leap.
78:58And can they get there with no Tyler Smith?
79:01And with the line that I have this as a below average league line now, they drop by, I think, 0.7 points to the spread for me.
79:09Just taking Tyler Smith, a name you might not even heard about off of that on Labor Day.
79:14So I kind of want to be on the Cowboys, but everyone else is.
79:18And I think it's all priced in. The bet I made and will stand by is I took the Cowboys to win the NFC at 13 to one.
79:27Here's the thing. I don't know if I can be in on the regular season version of this team.
79:33The injuries that are there right now, the tough schedule all year.
79:36I think crazy as it sounds, the Cowboys haven't won the playoffs since like the 90s, really.
79:41I think this is a better playoff team than a regular season team.
79:45Give the defense some time to gel. Give the coaches some time.
79:49Get the line healthy. I think I'd buy this team after the Rams against anyone else in the NFC.
79:55I think they're a complete unit that can have the right mix in the playoffs.
79:59There's plus 250 to win a playoff game if you want.
80:02I don't want median outcomes. I want the long tail.
80:05If it's right, I want it to be worth my money because Brandon, you and I think this team is good, but so does everyone else.
80:13So now we have to bet some long shots to make it worth it.
80:17So that's my one big, big team future into the playoffs.
80:21Notice no Super Bowl ticket. I'm not going crazy here, but how about get to the Super Bowl 13 to one for the Dallas Cowboys?
80:28If you're going to go in, go all in with the Dallas Cowboys.
80:32I am properly nervous about this one as well.
80:35Nine teams remain, but I have some good news just in time for the football season.
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81:11This is Matt Rogers from Las Culture East. That's with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
81:16This is Bowen Yang from Las Culture East. That's with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
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83:18This is Steve Covino from Covino & Rich. All right, quick round of trivia before we get back into the show.
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85:08Dude wipes, best clean, pants down. Tier 3. Last year's results speak for themselves.
85:12We've got four teams in this tier. Number 9 was in the Super Bowl last year in the New England Patriots, followed
85:19by the Chicago Bears at 8, Philadelphia Eagles at 7, and the world's best defense, the Houston Texans at 6.
85:25We just watched the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
85:28They're going to kick off the season tomorrow night against the Seattle Seahawks, the team that they played in the Super Bowl.
85:34How do you like New England's chances of running it back in the AFC, and they have an improved arsenal now around Drake May?
85:42Yeah, it's tough to run it back. The Super Bowl loser is 16-6 to the under the last 22 years.
85:48The only Super Bowl loser to get back to the Super Bowl since 1993 is the Patriots, so there is that in 2018.
85:54But there's not a lot where this happens again.
85:57It's a clear regression team for me. They won 14 games.
86:00We know about the schedule. We know how much that that impacted things.
86:04The metrics said this was more like a 10-win team last year.
86:08They're 8-3 in one-score games. They were the healthiest team last year by adjusted games loss.
86:13So there's a lot of trends. Some of those Jaguars and Broncos trends fit here as well that tell you that things should be a little worse.
86:21But weirdly, I think last year was kind of like a surprise outcome for New England.
86:26I think they were building towards this version this year that now gets A.J.
86:30Brown and Romeo Dobbs that now brings in fullback Reggie Gilliam that adds Elijah Vera Tucker on the line.
86:36Jones was third in DVOA and should be better because they added all those guys in.
86:40So I think that at least offsets some of the schedule stuff that was baked in.
86:45The defense last year, I was excited about the defense.
86:48They added tons of guys at linebacker in the secondary on the line.
86:52Those guys weren't healthy last year. Then we saw them healthy late and they made the Super Bowl off the defense more than the offense.
87:00Strike me was not that great in the playoffs last year.
87:03It was the defense that did it. So I like Zach Kerr, the unit defensively.
87:07I think there's a lot here, but there's a lot of regression signal.
87:11For me, I'm going to keep the bet very easy.
87:14If I'm that far out on the Bills and the Jets and the Dolphins speak for themselves, I have to take the division bet.
87:22Plus 145. It's a two-team race. We all agree on that.
87:25And I love the escalator here. You can go exact division order.
87:28Patriots won Bills too. We all agree on that part.
87:31I like Jets ahead of the Dolphins, three and four.
87:34So you get that one, two, three, four in order is plus 450.
87:38I think that's a good way to bake in some of the unknown here, but get it to pay off for you.
87:45Yeah. I saw there was a bet out there for the Jets just to finish in third place at even money.
87:51I love that because I think any direction that you go in the AFC East, the Jets are going to end up third.
87:58But the Patriots, they're a really weird team because of the way that they overachieved last year, yet got significantly better and have an ascending roster talent-wise.
88:06It's a very tough read, but I like the way that you analyze that.
88:10It's almost like elimination. You played the process of elimination game and just landed on New England as the best team in the division.
88:18Last year, you were on Bears Island. That was your worst to first preseason pick.
88:22Ben Johnson did the magic with the offense, but you're still willing to rank this defense as high as you are.
88:28I mean, you talk about a regression candidate. I'd love to hear the cap on this because they're the kings of regression analysis in turnover differential.
88:36They were plus 22 last year. So walk me through this.
88:40Yeah, you're right off my notes. Ben Johnson said it himself.
88:43He called the Bears the number one regression candidate.
88:46So they had the fewest turnovers and the most takeaways last year.
88:49How do you lead the league in both categories?
88:52Plus 22 turnovers since 1990. Teams that posted a plus 20 turnover margin or better regressed to a plus three on average the following season.
88:59That is a turnover per game difference that would suddenly swing the other direction.
89:04And that makes a big difference. The Bears were the number one fumble recovery rate last year as well.
89:09And some of those trends we talked about with like the new offensive coordinator, with the returning coach, the win improvements.
89:16They all fit the regression stuff here. Ben Johnson is right.
89:19He should be afraid. And look, the teams in this tier, I'm skeptical about if I'm being honest.
89:24I think the teams we just completed, the Cowboys, Vikings, Bucks, those are teams I think get to above these teams in this tier.
89:32But for right now, we have last year's results.
89:34And I have to respect what you have done, basically.
89:37Caleb Williams improved a ton last year. Pocket management, the deep ball.
89:41Those were huge weaknesses as a rookie. Surprise! Ben Johnson showed up, and now you're actually good at those things.
89:47The run game is really good. It's a top 10 offensive line.
89:50Trapillo might be back at left tackle sooner than we think.
89:54Odun's a burden at receiver. The guy I love is Colson Loveland.
89:57I gave him out as the touchdown leader for tight end at 11-1 at DraftKings.
90:0270 catches or more as well on the over.
90:05I think Loveland has a huge season. Like you said, the defense.
90:08You add Devin Bush. You add Thineman in the first round.
90:11You're supposed to get healthy in the secondary. That's why I was slightly optimistic here.
90:16Dennis Allen needs top secondary play. But Kobe Bryant, the free agent, signing already out for the season.
90:21Kyler Gordon, who we waited all last season for in the slot.
90:25He's already on IR to start this season. Jalen Johnson never seems quite healthy right now.
90:30I was kind of in because I thought, just be healthy again.
90:33And that's got to be better. Well, they're already not healthy again.
90:37I think we're going to have, I live in Chicago area.
90:40I think we're going to see a lot of fun games.
90:44As a Vikings fan, we're going to see a lot of shootouts.
90:47A lot of back and forth. A lot of gave up a score.
90:51Scored late to win the game. Late season. Here's how the Bears end.
90:55At Buffalo. Green Bay. Detroit. At Minnesota. The entire division.
90:58Plus the Bills. I think this team is too talented to be out of it.
91:02I think it's going to come down to those four games.
91:06And I don't need a futurist ticket on the team because of that.
91:10Drew Dahlman also hangs it up. He was their center.
91:13I think that's a big deal for Chicago. But yeah, I like the fact that the Patriots and the Bears are back
91:19to back in these tiers in these rankings because they're like the same team.
91:24Elite quarterback play that should get better. Major regression candidates that overachieved last year.
91:28It's like all the arrows are pointing in different directions for both of these teams.
91:32So you kind of just have to plant your flag and deal with the results.
91:37We can't talk about volatility without talking about the Philadelphia Eagles.
91:40Every year it's something new for Nick Sirianni. It feels like he's got a new offensive coordinator every year.
91:46Sean Mannion is going to try and create some spark out of Jalen Hurts, who is slipping down everyone's quarterback rankings.
91:52Does the pendulum swing up or down this season for the Philadelphia Eagles?
91:56And what should be one of the more elite defenses in the league as well?
92:00Yeah, I'm not going to name all the defensive names off here.
92:04We know this defense is going to be really good.
92:07We're running along. So let me just tell you a big fan geo and the dudes.
92:12They're going to be good defensively. Offense is the big question, right?
92:15Can they fix the run game? That's fading a little bit.
92:19Can Devante Smith be wide receiver one with A.J.
92:21Brown gone? With A.J. Brown gone, I had the skill players on this team drop from number one last year to 10th this year.
92:29That's a real drop off. I think the offensive line is more like top five than perennial number one.
92:34What does Jalen Hurts like in this new offense?
92:37Can he throw in the middle of the field?
92:40Can we finally find out the answer to that?
92:42I think Philadelphia got a little bit lucky with some of the schedule stuff.
92:47Washington, Tennessee to start. Their three variable games are Carolina, Pittsburgh, Chicago.
92:50I'll take that if it's a first place schedule.
92:53I can handle that. I don't really have an answer to your question on what happens with the Eagles.
92:59I'm skeptical. But I'm skeptical every year and they usually still find ways to figure things out.
93:04My bet here is there's a book out there you can bet first team all pro.
93:09Give me Lane Johnson at five to one. First team all pro.
93:12So we go by left tackle and right tackle Lane plays right tackle.
93:16He's been first or second team four straight years when healthy.
93:19The three second teams on there. He lost to Tristan Wirfs left tackle now and Panay Sewell left tackle now.
93:25So we took the competition away. Let's give our guy a legacy pick on the way out.
93:30I bet him five to one Creed Humphrey at center.
93:33Three to one Kyle Hamilton plus three 20. Those are some of the favorites.
93:38That's who should win these awards. We know who wins first team all pro.
93:42So give me some lineman odds here on the Eagles and let me just stay away from the rest.
93:48I like it. If you're going to bet the Eagles, bet them in the trenches.
93:52That's where you know they're going to be good.
93:55Speaking of good defenses, though, there might not be a better defense on the planet than D'Amico Ryan's Houston Texans.
94:01Can Houston's offense finally catch up this season? Yeah, again, a defense we don't need to tell you too much about.
94:07Top two DVOA run and pass last year. I always rank edge rush and corners most important on the defense.
94:13And this is a team that's top three in both of those.
94:17So you know the names. Will Anderson plus 750 defensive player of the year.
94:21An absolute bullseye for me. That is one of my favorite award picks.
94:25So grab him for sure if you can. It's a low variance defense because the talent is so high.
94:31Easy choice for me as my number one defense.
94:33The question is the offense and what can they do?
94:36They have averaged the last three years 20th in DVOA.
94:39Okay. I think we talk about them like they're like 27th.
94:43We talk about them like they're abjectly terrible. And they're just kind of below average.
94:4720th isn't terrible. That's why they win 10 games and a playoff game.
94:51D'Amico Ryan's was the first coach ever to do that his first two years.
94:55Then he did it a third year also as a new coach.
94:59So what can the offense do? Like we said with the Bengals, are you the 30th line or the 25th or the 20th?
95:06I think the Texans settle in at like 25th.
95:08I think they're on the right direction, but Keelan Rutledge, everyone likes him.
95:12He's supposed to be the starting center. It looks like he's a guard now.
95:16Where do you come up with the right names?
95:19Can you get the mix there? David Montgomery. Is he a lead guy?
95:23Can he actually do the thing? Nico Collins to me is the only real weapon they have.
95:28I like him 40 to one offensive player of the year.
95:31I'm losing belief in this offense. I keep waiting for them to find it and figure it out.
95:37I'm losing belief in CJ Stroud. But I think the argument is we're buying the offense at its floor.
95:43We kind of seen the bad version. Is there a good version that I don't know?
95:47But even like a B plus version of the quarterback, the line, the run game.
95:52Houston is my number two team. If that happens, the defense is so good.
95:56Special teams are good. If the offense can get there, this is a Super Bowl type team.
96:01But we need to see the offense get there.
96:04Really hurt that Jaden Higgins got hurt in the preseason and Tankdale.
96:08Not all the way back yet. So he's going to start the season on the IR.
96:12And you're just waiting for that next guy to show up for the Houston Texans.
96:17Let's go to tier two. We've got another four teams in this one.
96:21It's so fi or bust. And if you don't know what that means, well, the Super Bowl is in LA this year.
96:27Super Bowl 61. And if these teams don't get there, I guess we've got some issues.
96:32Number five, the San Francisco 49ers. Four, Baltimore Ravens.
96:35Three, the Kansas City Chiefs. And two, the defending Super Bowl champion, Seattle Seahawks.
96:39Which means that there is a one team tier coming up after this.
96:43The 49ers are a tough one with all of the injury prone guys up and down the roster.
96:48CMC, Trent Williams, Mike Evans, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner.
96:51What do we do with these guys? Never mind the substation that's out there to get all of them.
96:57What's the outlook tell you on the 49ers? The outlook is we don't really know because the entire thing is the health of those stars.
97:04It's this top-heavy roster. It's stars we know are good on the field.
97:08And they're on the field right now, but we don't know how long that's going to stay that way.
97:14So I think you have to think of the 49ers as two things.
97:18Number one, right now, they're healthy and a top-five team.
97:21I have to respect that. And right now, put them top-five in the power rankings.
97:25I don't think it's going to hold up, though.
97:28So I don't want to buy stock in the team.
97:31I think I'm buying high. And they're kind of being priced accordingly.
97:35So I think the problem with any futures bet is you're banking on these five to seven stars staying healthy with the substation.
97:41And that's the tough sell here. So, look, we know about the team.
97:45I don't need to tell you about the Niners.
97:48The offense, top-six DVOA, five of the last six years.
97:51Under Brock Purdy, they've been top two, two of the three years.
97:55And the bad year was with all the injuries and a nightmare and no CMC, basically.
97:59And the bad year was still ninth in DVOA.
98:02So the floor is so high for this team with Mike Shanahan.
98:06The weapons are there. Purdy has been really good.
98:08Trent Williams still holding up the line. That's my Niners bet.
98:12Seven percent prediction market for Protector of the Year.
98:15Tristan Wurfs I mentioned as well on that one.
98:17The defense is the question. They were terrible last year.
98:20They were, I guess, bad, not terrible. But they were not good.
98:24But now you get Nick Bosa back and Fred Warner.
98:27And now you got Raheem Morris. Those three guys are enough to lift you into contention.
98:32I think the secondary is the worst for any contender.
98:35But that sort of sets up this team to me as like in recent years, the Bills or the Packers maybe.
98:41Where, okay, it's got to be the offense. The offense just has to carry the team.
98:46But with the Niners, it has to be healthy enough to carry the team.
98:50And health is a real thing. I know we think health is unpredictable.
98:54Unpredict this. In 12 of the last 13 seasons, the Niners have ranked top 10 in most adjusted injury games lost.
99:00I don't know if it's a substation, but whatever it is, it ain't working in San Francisco.
99:05These guys don't stay healthy. So I think the Niners are two things.
99:09They're underrated right now, game to game. But I don't want their futures later because we got to play a 20-game season of the playoffs.
99:17And I don't know if this team can hold up.
99:20It is hard to project injuries, but you're right.
99:22Not hard when it comes to the San Francisco 49ers.
99:25And CMC, 400 touches last year, completely healthy, ironically enough.
99:28So can that hold up? Probably not. The Ravens had a ton of injuries last season, too.
99:33The defense especially. Lamar never really looked like himself.
99:36It was his first year with less than 600 rushing yards, if that tells you anything.
99:41If you're ranking Baltimore top four, is that a vote of confidence in the former MVP?
99:46I think so. And look, every Lamar stat last year, they were pretty bad stats.
99:50But I think every stat makes sense in light of the leg injuries that he had.
99:55We have seen quarterbacks have pretty bad years and then get healthy and be just fine the next year.
100:01We saw like Dak Prescott have a horrendous year a couple years ago and then be great again last season.
100:07Very different styles. But Lamar has played four healthy seasons.
100:10In those healthy seasons, he's won MVP twice. And he was a runner-up a third time when everyone thought he should have won.
100:17So it should be three out of four, according to most people.
100:20So Lamar speaks for himself. I'm not ready to write him off after one season with the injuries.
100:26I will give them benefit of the doubt. Interior offensive line is remade.
100:30So we got to see that come together. Derrick Henry, I don't know when it's going to end, but at some point it has to.
100:37What if it's this year? I don't think it will be, but it's in the mix.
100:42Declan Doyle calling the plays. We haven't seen it yet.
100:45Looks like a Ben Johnson type mold. That should be exciting.
100:48I think that fits this team really well. And defensively, I'm excited.
100:52Jesse Minter calling the defense. I think this could be a top five unit.
100:56Nnamdi Matabike, back on the line. Big deal up front.
100:59Calais Campbell, veteran of like a thousand seasons. Still there on the line doing his thing.
101:04Trey Hendrickson, they got the pass rusher now. The secondary, that's where Minter shines.
101:08What's he going to do with Kyle Hamilton? I'm excited to see what that looks like.
101:13So I think this is a sky's the limit team.
101:16This is a team that I've bet Super Bowl tickets on in the past.
101:20I will be looking in that direction and a chance to buy at some point.
101:25The bet here has to do with the soft schedule to open.
101:28And the fact that I think MVP is a team award, not an individual award.
101:33So give me Lamar 11 to one. I took Lamar and Mahomes 17 to one.
101:37I think those are outrageous prices at MVP for guys that we know can do it because they've done it twice each before.
101:44Yeah. The ceiling for Lamar Jackson is just an auto MVP award.
101:48So no problem with that whatsoever. Speaking of the Chiefs, the more things change, the more they stay the same in the year of our Lord.
101:552026. You've got the Ravens and the Chiefs alone at the top of the AFC.
102:00So you are undeterred based on what has happened as of last year.
102:04Talk me into the elder statesman that is Andy Reid.
102:07Yeah, I think similarly with the Ravens. I'm just not ready to give up after one year.
102:12It was a bad year. Mahomes gets hurt. They still end up as like, by the metrics, the best 6-11 team ever, whatever that's worth to you.
102:20They were still top 20 DVOA offense and defense and special teams.
102:24They're still top half of the league. They probably should have won like nine games, even when everything went wrong last season.
102:30So if I look at this team and I think, okay, I know the Mahomes offense is fading.
102:36Why? What's happened? What has been bad the last three years as things have gone awry?
102:40I see four main things. The receivers have been bad.
102:43The run game has gone away. The line has been bad.
102:47And the play calling scheme has not been good.
102:50Okay. Receivers are still bad. I'm not going to solve that problem for you.
102:54The line is better. Jawan Taylor addition by subtraction.
102:56I think they should be getting better there. The run game should be better.
103:01Kenneth Walker. Didn't we just see the last couple of years?
103:04What happens when you add a star running back to a great offense?
103:08Saquon Barkley, Derek Henry. Running backs do not add floor, but they do elevate your ceiling.
103:13I think the explosive he adds could be a huge mix here.
103:16Scheme. I don't know. I'll just say this. Three years when this has been ugly has been exactly the timeframe for Matt Nagy.
103:23The five years before that with Eric Bien-Ami were like the best five-year stretch in quarterback history from Mahomes.
103:29So I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.
103:32Spag's defense has to replace McDuffie and Watson at corner, but the Jarius Snead has been great for this team.
103:38They went up for the rookie, Mansour Delane. I trust him to find answers.
103:42I think this team is going to be good again.
103:45I think people just don't want them because we're sick of it, but I think the Chiefs are good and we know they're good.
103:52So plus 180 to win the AFC West is the bet here.
103:56It's partly a schedule bet. They start out home for Denver Indy, then at Miami and Vegas.
104:01That feels like 4-0 into the bye week for me.
104:04The third place schedule is in their favor. We talked about Denver and the Chargers having tough schedules this year.
104:10To me, it's a schedule bet and a floor bet that the Chiefs, even with the high win total, 10-3 to the
104:17over this season in his career with the Chiefs.
104:19And the misses were by half a win until last season.
104:23So Chiefs last year, 1-9 in one score games.
104:25They're not going to do that again. Patrick Mahomes, the rest of his career, 43-17 in his career.
104:31This is not a Bo Nix. This is a Patrick Mahomes.
104:34That is a six-win swing most years if Mahomes just does his usual thing.
104:38I'm not giving the Ravens and Chiefs up for dead.
104:41I still think they're right in the mix at the top.
104:44It does feel like those years with the Patriots when we were all like, see, the dynasty's over, away to the Super Bowl.
104:51That is what this feels like. Like we're doing it again with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are the modern version of that team.
104:59Eye test-wise, I just can't see it. But you have to believe in coach and quarterback, the two most important positions in football.
105:06And while they feel old and decrepit, they actually have a bottom five roster in terms of age.
105:11So they're one of the youngest teams in the NFL, which is a surprise to me when I look that up.
105:17Not many questions left for the defending world champion Seattle Seahawks.
105:21So I'll ask this one. How do you win a title and return just about everybody and not then enter the year number one in a power ranking?
105:29You have them at two. I think I know the answer, but I'm curious your spin on it.
105:34Yeah, I think the answer is just the Rams.
105:37We'll get to in a second. I'm sorry. CX fans won't love to hear that.
105:42You're the champions. It's hard to be the king.
105:44It's hard to run it back. I don't need to tell you that regression comes for the champion because that's what happens in sports.
105:51This is why we watch sports. It's hard to repeat.
105:54Part of it is just keeping your dudes and keeping them healthy.
105:58They didn't keep the dudes. Kenneth Walker is gone.
106:01Zach Charbonnet is hurt. Foyim Off is gone. In the secondary, Rick Willen and Kobe Bryant are gone.
106:06And now, speaking of getting healthy, we don't know if Nikki Manwari and Tai Okada are healthy for week one.
106:12So here's your strength of the team, the secondary.
106:15And you just went from the strength to two guys gone, two guys questioned to start the season.
106:20I'm not burying the Seahawks. They're number two, but that's what happens in football.
106:24It's a tough sport to stay at the top.
106:27The defense is going to be awesome, right? Mike McDonald, versatile front.
106:31They're going to come at you in waves. I don't need to make the case.
106:35That's going to be great. I do have concerns about the offense.
106:39No Kubiak. Brian Fleury. We don't know much about his play calling.
106:42We talked about with the Raiders, Kubiak maximizing things, making the offensive line look good, helping the run game.
106:48Okay, well, what if you take that out now?
106:51What does that look like? This offensive line was supposed to be a bottom three unit in the last season.
106:57They finished kind of league average or even better now.
107:00What do they look like now that it's not Kubiak there?
107:03What happens if the line is worse? What does Sam Darnold look like?
107:07What if your defense is a little bit worse this year?
107:10Because that's how things happen. And now the game script is worse.
107:14Now Darnold has to pass more. It's a little bit house of cards there where things start to slip.
107:20And I don't know if we love the answer.
107:22It's a very run heavy offense. No Walker. No Zach Charbonne until we don't know when.
107:27Do you know that Jadarian Price, we get him in the first round.
107:31His career high in three years at Notre Dame is 15 rushing attempts.
107:35He only had 10 games in three seasons with double digit rushing attempts.
107:39He's the entire rushing attack. He's the guy you're building around.
107:42That's my bet here. I think the answer is no.
107:45Jadarian Price, under 800 rushing yards at DraftKings. That's my Seattle bet.
107:49Look, the defense is so good. Special teams are so good.
107:52Jay Harbaugh, they're the number one special teams unit in my rankings.
107:56If your defense and special teams are number one or number two, that's a great floor.
108:01You're not going anywhere. But if either of those even goes to like fourth or fifth, now you might go somewhere.
108:07And now it happens with the offense. The Super Bowl champs get to start at the top of the tier.
108:13You're top two. But I'm a little concerned. I'm not really looking to invest in this team.
108:18And they would be number one, if not for a team that is as loaded top to bottom as we have seen
108:25since the Dallas Cowboys of the mid nineties. I mean, no surprise here.
108:28Tier one, all by themselves, the target is firmly on your back.
108:32And that is the LA Rams who will start the season in Australia against their division foe in the San Francisco 49ers.
108:39They are heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl at every book.
108:42Every power rating has them at the top. The biggest question during the season is, can they do it when the expectation
108:49is to win a Super Bowl and anything less than that would be a massive disappointment?
108:54The only thing that I could say against them is that doing the obvious is really hard in the NFL.
109:00Yeah, I think so. And then the question to me is, they're clear number one.
109:04I have them in a tier alone. How big is the gap?
109:08How far ahead of the field are they? Because I honestly thought this was the best team last year.
109:13And look, Seahawks fans, you got the trophy. Like, I'm not going to pretend that the results don't matter.
109:19The Seahawks beat the Rams. They're the champions. But offense matters most to me.
109:23This was the number one offense rushing and passing last year.
109:27They were top five defense. And now you add Miles Garrett and Aaron Donald, apparently we've decided, and Trent McDuffie and Jalen
109:33Watson at corner, which was the weak link last year.
109:36The Rams have lapped the field. There's no question about that by the roster.
109:41You got Sean McVay and the coaching staff. No questions there.
109:44But we don't even need to say that much.
109:47Like, you know why the Rams are that good.
109:49You know they're supposed to be number one in the rankings.
109:53The question is, can you stay that good? It's hard for an offense that had an outlier elite rushing attack last year.
109:59That can only get worse. It can only be worse this year.
110:03The Rams were number one by DVOA last year.
110:05For the five previous years, they were seventh to tenth.
110:08First to seventh or eighth or ninth is a huge drop.
110:12It doesn't seem that big. But the Rams were like outlier good at number one.
110:16You can't be better than number one because there's no more numbers left.
110:20But that's how far ahead of the field they were.
110:23So, Puka Nakua, is he going to miss any time?
110:26Lerick Jackson on the line. On field and off field reasons.
110:29Is he going to miss any time? The offense can only get worse.
110:33It was already the best. The defense, I talked in other podcasts.
110:37How does Miles Garrett fit into a different scheme?
110:40Not the wide nine scheme under Jim Schwartz. These corners, are we sure they weren't maximized under Spagnolo as good as he is?
110:47How do they fit in a new system here?
110:49How does everything come together? Lots of talent. And now Aaron Donald.
110:53So, you got to feel good about it. But what are we not like about the Rams?
110:58Not a whole lot. Special teams is terrible. Never a McVay concern.
111:02They bring in Bubba Ventrone. But that's a new coach.
111:05But they were terrible in punter, kicker, no personnel change.
111:08I think that and the lack of aggression in game, those are the sort of edges that can cost you a game at some point.
111:15That better not be what costs you a game in the playoffs.
111:19Here's my bet on the team. And I'll close with just like a big picture of that.
111:24I have the West basically even at the top.
111:26Seahawks, Rams, and Niners. So, I think the Rams are being priced too aggressively.
111:31Give me the Rams third place in the West.
111:33Just light at plus 400. It's a tough opening schedule.
111:36You're in Australia. Then you come back. No rest for the Giants.
111:40Then at Denver, at Philly, Buffalo is a rough way to start.
111:44The target's on your back. You can only get worse.
111:47Big picture. This is my number one team. I have them three points to the spread ahead of the field.
111:53But comparatively to recent years, this would have been like my number two or three team last year.
111:58Like Buffalo or Kansas City. They're not a hyper elite elite number one team.
112:02The gap isn't how awesome LA is. I think it's a drop to everyone else.
112:07Last year, I had eight teams that had better power rating than my number two team this year going into the season.
112:13So, there's not a big group of contenders to the top this year.
112:17It's not that the Rams are so awesome. That tier we just did.
112:21Seahawks, Chiefs, Ravens, Niners. Typically, that should be in my rankings more like six to ten, not two to five.
112:27There should be that level of gap here to the top.
112:30Last year, I had only seven teams within a touchdown to the spread of my number one team.
112:36Previous years of that, ten, eight, nine. So, somewhere in that range.
112:39This year, I have 17 teams within a touchdown of the Rams.
112:43So, it's not that they're so far ahead of the whole field.
112:47That is truncated and close. There's a lot of parity to come.
112:50Basically, all the way down to that Pittsburgh-Indianapolis group.
112:53Any given Sunday, you might beat the Rams. So, let me ask you a question.
112:57The Rams are five to one to win the Super Bowl.
113:01Who is the last preseason Super Bowl favorite at plus 500 or shorter to actually go on and win the Super Bowl?
113:07Do you know? I do. I've already done this, so I'm sort of cheating.
113:12That's okay. The 1995 Dallas Cowboys. It is. It's the Cowboys 95.
113:15You led with them off the top here. So, I thought you might know this one.
113:20But ever since then, 22 teams have been plus 500 or better to start the year at Sports Odds History.
113:26They're 0 for 22. The odds of that happening, even if they're all plus 500, will be under 2%.
113:32It is hard to win when everyone's coming at you.
113:35Heavy is the head that wears the crown. And the Rams don't wear the crown.
113:39The Seahawks wear the crown. But the Rams wear the crown of expectations.
113:43I will be looking for the spot to fade the Rams.
113:46This is a team that I could see us getting to sometime September or October and being like, this is it.
113:53The greatest football team we've ever seen. They're everyone's favorite pick.
113:56They're even odds versus the field. They're the team that's going to crush everyone.
114:00And they look the part on the roster, on the field.
114:03That's the spot when we have to sell and go the direction.
114:07So, they start number one. They got to end there.
114:10And it's a long season in between. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.
114:15And that is a good time for us to transition to our DraftKings best bet on the board.
114:20After all of that, the nearly two-hour breakdown of every team in the NFL.
114:24It's time to nominate our absolute favorite future presented by DraftKings.
114:28What's the one that stands out to you above the rest?
114:31I said this as we were recording. My favorite future on the podcast, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South.
114:37That is my pick. That's the value. Go get your Bucs division ticket.
114:41I like the Packers under nine and a half wins.
114:44And I'm going to go ahead and sprinkle on that last place bet at plus 350.
114:49They just lost too many pieces on defense. They lost their last five games last year without Micah Parsons.
114:55Well, he's on the shelf to start the year.
114:58You have the Josh Jacobs news and the fact that I love the other three teams in this division.
115:03This is one of the easier bets that I have placed.
115:07Why should you place these bets at DraftKings? Because all DraftKings customers are getting a profit boost every game day in the month of September.
115:14And that is why the crown is yours. Thanks for watching.
115:17Thanks for listening. Be sure to like and subscribe to this channel.
115:21Check me out all season long on the favorites.
115:24And alongside Brandon Anderson with our newly minted Futures podcast.
115:27More on that to come here soon. But more than anything, download that Action Network app because it makes you a better better.
115:34And if you made it to the end of this podcast, you're already one of the real ones.
115:39So make it count. Download the app. Brandon Anderson 1.0.
115:42This was a ton of fun. Thanks for the tidbits.
115:45And hopefully we'll be cashing these tickets all season long.
115:48Bye for now. Happy betting football fiends. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
115:52If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
115:57This is Tony Ayo from The Real Report with Tony Ayo and Uncle Murda.
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118:00Worth it. Full of fun activities inspired by Disney's Moana, Frozen, Zootopia, Marvel's Spider-Man, and more, Lingo Kids is where little ones discover more about favorite characters.
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118:12They're down 21 with just over six minutes remaining.
118:14This is the moment, baby! This is the moment we separate the dogs from the boys.
118:19And if you ask me, I only got one question.
118:22Do you got that dog in you? Because it's never about the winners or the losers, but it is about the difference
118:29between those brave enough to put some action on the game and those who just want to watch from the sidelines eating off-brand pizza rolls.
118:36So sit down, lock in those picks, and trust that ow!
118:40Dog in you. Underdog. At least you're dog. Terms may apply.
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