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NFL Pools Expert Strategy | 2026

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

42 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 3, 2026
Published
Thu, September 3, 2026
6
Player insights
6
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron RodgersDavis WebbGeno SmithJayden DanielsJoe BurrowMalik Willis
Player analysis

Player insights

6

Aaron Rodgers

NegativeProjection40:36

Matt Rogers notes that Aaron Rodgers will likely be at his healthiest in Week 1, which is a factor in his decision to pick the Steelers over the Falcons in survivor pools.

Insight page

Davis Webb

NegativeRole33:43

Matt Rogers notes that quarterback turnover is unpredictable, using Davis Webb as a hypothetical example of a backup quarterback who could suddenly be forced into a starting role for the Texans, impacting survivor pool strategy.

Insight page

Geno Smith

NegativeRole39:00

Matt Rogers notes that the Dolphins' potential to be favored in a late-November game against the Jets depends heavily on the quarterback situation, specifically questioning if Geno Smith will still be the starter.

Insight page

Jayden Daniels

NegativeInjury42:23

Jason Lisk uses Jayden Daniels as a hypothetical example of how a quarterback injury can disrupt survivor pool plans and force a reevaluation of team projections.

Insight page

Joe Burrow

NegativeInjury42:17

Jason Lisk cites Joe Burrow's mid-season injury last year as a prime example of how unpredictable quarterback health can significantly alter survivor pool outcomes and team projections.

Insight page

Malik Willis

NegativeProjection35:52

Jason Lisk highlights Malik Willis as a major unknown for the Dolphins, noting that the team's offensive success depends heavily on whether he can develop into a star to carry a depleted roster.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

510
0:00Some people use ChatGPT to answer questions. Others use it to get real work done.
0:04With ChatGPT Work, you bring the goal, plus real inputs like briefs, notes, files, feedback, data, and project plans.
0:10It can help turn them into an analysis, tracker, deck outline, prototype, or workflow you can review and keep shaping.
0:16You stay in control, giving direction and choosing the final output.
0:19Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.
0:23Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode. Available on Plus and Pro Plans.
0:27This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
0:31This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
0:35You know when people try a new food and suddenly it's like, okay, hold on, I got a new favorite food.
0:41That's the reaction a lot of people are having when they first try Kewpie mayo.
0:45Yeah, it's the one with the red cap and the little baby on the bottle.
0:50You've probably seen it at the grocery store. And this mayo is different.
0:54Mm-hmm. Most mayonnaise uses whole eggs. Kewpie only uses egg yolks, which gives it this rich umami flavor.
0:59It's smoother, deeper, almost buttery. Once people try it, they start putting it on everything.
1:04Egg sandwiches, fries, burgers. Chefs use it. Restaurants use it.
1:07People who really care about flavor use it. Put it on just about anything.
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2:30And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.
2:33I'm Gilles Gallant. And today, we've got another one of our favorite annual episodes we like to do for the NFL.
2:40It's NFL Survivor Pools. Strategies, tips, how we look at them.
2:43We've got Jason Lisk from Pool Genius to join us again.
2:46He's going to break it down all for us.
2:49Now, Jason, we're a week out from the NFL season.
2:52How is it feeling? You've got to feel like your work is ramping up now as we get to the start of the NFL season.
2:59It is absolutely getting crazy. Projections everywhere. I just ran through everything.
3:03Excited for that Wednesday kickoff. It's Wednesday now. They keep creeping it up on us.
3:07So, who doesn't want to watch that Super Bowl rematch on a Wednesday?
3:11We've got an Australia game. All sorts of action coming up.
3:15And yeah, we are getting our projections ready for all those games.
3:18Yeah, as thrilled as we are, our spouses probably not so much with the earlier start in the Valentine's Day Super Bowl.
3:25So, we'll do our best to mend those fences.
3:27But today for Survivor Pools, we're going to get into strategies and more.
3:31I also want to mention that DraftKings features many pools this season, including a $1 million Survivor Pool.
3:37All it takes is an entry fee of just $10.
3:40So, as we go today, we're going to be looking for a pool to go join.
3:44Check out everything DraftKings offers. You can also visit PoolGenius.com slash action for a discount on all the great things available over at PoolGenius.
3:52So, check that out. You can find a link in the episode description.
3:55All right, Jason, let's get into it. I'm going to start with some more general topics about Survivor Pool.
4:01Then we're going to talk more about the 2026 season.
4:04But first off for me, you're one of the experts in this space when it comes to Survivor Pools.
4:10You've been doing it for many years. But one thing that I noticed, like even myself as somebody who bets touchdowns a
4:16lot, how I was doing it maybe 5, 10 years ago is not clearly at all how I do it now.
4:23I just want to ask, how has your strategy shifted or changed since how you started first playing Survivor Pools compared to now?
4:29Yeah, I mean, I think pools have collectively gotten smarter and sharper, more aware of data compared to a decade ago.
4:36You could find some extreme, extreme, let's say, positions that were very poor value to play against.
4:41And now you can still find those, but they become a little less so, right?
4:45People have a better understanding as a group, a smaller percentage of people that just don't know what they're doing.
4:51Well, and that is what I was going to say, though, is that in general, I feel like as the space has
4:58evolved, whether it be for just regular betting or pools, the basement of knowledge, I feel like has gone up just each
5:04year when it comes to those kinds of topics.
5:07But there are still people who are playing like the big money pools, but then there's, you know, buddies, you know, Tom,
5:14Dave and Josh who are playing their, you know, their small office pool or whatever.
5:18The strategies have to be different, right? Like when you're playing against like your buddies or maybe like an office pool compared to like that big pool.
5:26How do you think the strategies differ for when you're looking at those big money pools with like thousands of entries compared
5:33to just one that you would play with your buddies in an office?
5:37Yeah, I think you have to think more what I would call second order thinking, right?
5:41Sites like Yahoo, ESPN put out like general data, you know, from their pools.
5:46You'll find it on some sites. A lot of those are from free sites or those maybe some contests with lower stakes.
5:52And so you really have to think about, well, how are people going to respond to that?
5:57So you're going to see some, you do have to adjust your thinking on how people are going to pick because the
6:04number one rule in these pools, no matter if you think you're playing sharper people or not, is you're playing people.
6:10And, you know, it's a peer to peer game.
6:13Ultimately, how other people pick determines the value of your pick.
6:16You, they can't make you take a loss, but they can impact how many people are there at the end to split
6:23with you if you do get through things like that.
6:26Right. Yeah. And I think that's a good point because the one thing, too, is some of these bigger pools compared to like your office pool.
6:33It is good to know kind of how people may be thinking, but just the inherent risk is significantly different compared to
6:40just like, you know, a few hundred bucks and some bragging rights with your buddies compared to maybe a million dollar jackpot.
6:46So the risk itself, when do you think then you would maybe want to start taking some more riskier bets, you know, as you go?
6:54Would it be, you know, later in the season?
6:57Do you want to play it safe earlier? What do you what do you think is kind of the best catch all approach?
7:03You know, hey, there's a difference. You know, there's so many things out there now where people are buying and selling shares of things.
7:11But if you're playing it straight through, you're not hedging.
7:14You know, my my view is you play to win the game.
7:17And so if you're not concerned about what your values, the value of your entry is on October 1st, then you should
7:24not you should be kind of agnostic on when you take those chances.
7:28You should let the board tell you, like, are people not recognizing this team's a decent value in week one, week two, week three?
7:35Then you should gravel if, you know, they're there in week 16.
7:38So it really does come down to adapting. And there is no clear cut answer.
7:43Sometimes you're going to use a valuable team early because it helps advance your entry.
7:47Right. I think of it like chess. Am I giving up this piece for a strategic gain?
7:52Then if so, yeah, I'll do it. But I'm looking for those opportunities to slip teams in because then you play in
7:59the pools and you know you're going to go 18 like in the big DraftKings pool.
8:04I'll tell you right now, you probably got to go 18 and 0.
8:08If you know you've got to go through week 18, you know you got to use 18 teams.
8:13Well, I promise you there's not 18 teams you love on the board.
8:17And you're going to have to find the weeks where you're a little less disgusted by picking certain teams.
8:23And it shouldn't matter to you if that comes early or if it comes late.
8:27But I think the management of risk, because I think a lot of people, they think we got to go contrarian right
8:34off the hop because we got to get away from the big splits.
8:37You know, or it's like I'm going to save this stud team for week 12.
8:42At some point, I feel like people have to kind of shit or get off the pot sometimes when it comes to the risk.
8:49Right. Yeah, absolutely. And risk is different. Right. I can be somewhat contrarian and be on a 10% team and it'd be
8:56fine because we're not going to dupe each other over three, four or five weeks.
9:00So, you know, you can be contrarian off of the 40% team without necessarily taking a team nobody else is picking.
9:06That particular week, you don't have to get maybe crazy enough to take underdogs.
9:11You just want to find favorites that are a little less picked that maybe this isn't the obvious week people want to use them.
9:18Things like that. Yeah. And I think the people tendencies you bring up is really good too because, you know, some of
9:24these people that you know from like, let's say an office pool, you might know it's like a guy's a Packers fan.
9:31I know we save in that team for week.
9:34Like you could kind of make, whereas when you're playing like those bigger contests, you don't have that kind of information and knowledge.
9:40So that in turn, you have to then take some risks like where you're just kind of looking more at like public splits.
9:47Yeah. Public splits, how you think people behave, how people behaved in past contests, you know, all those things.
9:53Like you mentioned like how much money's on the line.
9:56And sometimes we see in these bigger contests and it makes sense, people actually get tighter, right?
10:01With more on the line and they tend toward the favorites.
10:04Like we've seen that in some contests where they tend toward the favorites even more than what we would expect.
10:10So yeah, it's studying the contest, all that stuff.
10:13These are the things we're trying to do with Pool Genius is try to anticipate how people are thinking when they look at that week.
10:20And trying to project how they would think a month from now when they look at a week in the future, because
10:27we do project future week pick popularity to try to identify these spots where people may be vulnerable, may be all in
10:34on a team, and it may be a good one to face.
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11:12This is Matt Rogers from Lost Culture East. That's with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
11:16This is Bowen Yang from Lost Culture East. This is Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
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11:25That's the reaction a lot of people are having when they first try Kewpie mayo.
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11:33You've probably seen it in the grocery store before.
11:36And if you've ever just walked past it, some people would say that's a huge mistake.
11:41Because this mayo is different. Most mayonnaise uses whole eggs.
11:44Kewpie only uses egg yolks, which gives it this rich umami flavor.
11:47It's smoother, deeper, and almost buttery. Once people try it, they start putting it on everything.
11:52Egg sandwiches, fries, burgers. Some fans even swear by dipping pizza crust in it.
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15:46DraftKings, the crown is yours. We're back with Jason Lisk from Pool Genius to discuss some survivor pool strategies for the 2026 NFL season.
15:53So, Jason, we initially talked about just some general strategy now.
15:57I want to narrow this down to the 2026 season because you've been running data splits and all your analysis coming into the year.
16:04And I think a lot of people, I don't think it's a crazy thing to say, they probably have the Rams as
16:10their top ranked team in their power ranking. So, when it comes to a team like the Rams or that consensus team
16:17that is probably going to be favored in every game they play this year, and you think of those teams from years
16:24past like the Ravens or the Chiefs, when is the best time to kind of use that ace in the hole?
16:30You know what I mean? Because sometimes, like a lot of people, they like to save them closer to the end of
16:36the season or save that in the chamber. But then there's other times where you could just look at the schedule and
16:43be like, week six, circle that one. So, how do you think we should approach a team like the Rams that are
16:50consistently at the top of power rankings? Yeah. Again, with the Rams, and if we want to talk about their schedule, I'll pull it up here.
16:57I mean, you mentioned week six. That's the clear, obvious spot where they're going to be a massive favorite.
17:03Yeah. We have them at 90% that week. It's hard to find 90%, right?
17:07They're hosting Arizona, so you've got the two extremes of the market.
17:11Team at the very top, team at the very bottom.
17:14At the favorite team's home field. Going to be one of the biggest spreads you're going to see all year, pending massive quarterback injuries in some other spots.
17:22I would say it's definitely going to be one of the top three or four spreads we're going to see this year.
17:29So, it's never a bad idea to use a team at 90%, even if they're substantially popular, right?
17:34It advances your injury. So, if you don't have other options that week, I wouldn't be going to a 60% team to avoid the Rams, right?
17:42That's a huge hit to take in your advancement.
17:44But there are other weeks where they could have what we call higher expected value EV, because maybe there's another popular team,
17:51and they are favored by just as much at really low ownership, giving you a lot of leverage.
17:56It's a different type of play. It's a higher upside play.
18:00And those come up. So, as I look at the Rams in particular, like, I'll just give you some of the spots we see them having.
18:07I mean, I project out popularity and EV. Our top spots, week 12, week 10, week 6, week 15, are the ones I would project right now.
18:16That is week 12 against Green Bay. No. So, to be clear, that's Green Bay at home.
18:21And the reason that one ranks so high, by the way, that's a tough Thanksgiving week.
18:25There's not a lot going on. And the other teams that play that week, you know, I don't even think there was
18:32a look-ahead line at minus 7 for that week when we looked at the power rankings.
18:37Like, the NFL has put, trying to put marquee matchups on the Thanksgiving slate, match teams up evenly.
18:42There aren't a lot of mismatches. And so, what could potentially happen that week and why it rates highly?
18:48Yes, the Rams are riskier, but so is everybody else.
18:51And everybody else's could have 25%, 30% on them while the Rams have 5%, have 10%.
18:55Right? And so, that rate is a week, but it's a completely different week than week 6, but they're both kind of high-value weeks in different ways.
19:04It makes sense. And the thing is, too, is when you look at the Rams schedule, as great as a team as
19:10they could be, not at a lot of spots where I would feel, especially in the first five weeks, like, I feel
19:17like a lot of these games are kind of a coin flip, even if they are what I would consider the better team.
19:24So, maybe not the best use of them in a survivor pool on that front.
19:28But you're saying, like, week 12 against the Packers because of the fact that there's just so many evened-out matchups, it's just difficult to find a good choice.
19:36So, maybe that might be a good time. If you don't take them in week 6, week 12, maybe a spot there
19:43where you know that maybe the Rams aren't going to get a 90% share of every entry, right?
19:48Yeah. As you said, I think the first five weeks, I would expect not to use them at all.
19:54And then, hopefully by then, you got a little more clarity.
19:57What starts to look? How does week 6 look versus those future weeks?
20:01But yeah, you want to use teams based on the week you're playing.
20:05And so, every week's a little different, right? A week with five teams favored by 80%, like, you know, eight and a
20:12half, nine-point favorites, is different than week 1 this year when we have a very quick drop-off.
20:17So, you play every week as it comes, and you're going to, hopefully with the Rams, get a month to assess that.
20:23Well, and the other thing, too, is you talked about how this is going to be the weakest quarterback matchup they'll face
20:30up to that point in week 6. Injuries happen all the time in the NFL.
20:34Quarterback turnover could happen. And all of a sudden, the Texans are throwing out Davis Webb.
20:39You know what I mean? Like, there's a lot that could change on that front.
20:44But let's now look at the basement. So, we kind of have an idea of how we should look at the Rams.
20:50I want to talk about a team that I can't imagine is going to be higher than 31 in most people's power rankings.
20:57And that's the Miami Dolphins. Because whoever they're playing is likely at least worth a sniff of consideration.
21:02I mean, I was almost considering looking at them in week 1, just playing against the Raiders.
21:07So, the question about the Dolphins is, how do we find the right way to fade them?
21:12Because there's going to be every week, I feel like people are going to be able to make the case.
21:18And some weeks, they'll probably be the consensus when it comes to shares as far as who the users are all picking, right?
21:25So, how do you approach a team that you expect to finish near the basement?
21:30Like, do you look ahead in the schedule? Tell me what we do with a team like the Miami Dolphins.
21:36I mean, we have them in our power rankings, as you said.
21:3932nd. Hey! There's a fairly large gap between them and Arizona and everybody else.
21:44Now, will that be accurate? You know, last year we thought the same of the Saints.
21:48Tyler Shuck turned out to be a little plucky and a new coach.
21:52So, we have a new coach situation. We have Malik Willis.
21:55There are a lot of unknowns around the Dolphins.
21:58We know that they've jettisoned a lot of talent and they had a lot of dead cap space.
22:03So, the expectation is they don't have receivers. But unless Malik Willis turns out to be a star, they can carry a
22:10roster that's pretty depleted, or unless one of these rookie-wide receivers comes on, you know, the offense probably is not going to be great.
22:17But there is a bit of variance. So, I'm not planning out like, oh, I'm definitely going against the Miami all year.
22:24We're going to see how it goes early on.
22:26But yeah, if they're as bad as expected, they are showing up.
22:30I'm going to run. I'm going to. We have tools called an Optimal Path tool.
22:35I'm just going to see how frequently. I'm going to run our generic, you know, based on our pick popular.
22:41I'll tell you how frequently our Optimal Path picks against the Dolphins versus other teams over the course of the year using Max Survival.
22:48Well, they show up in Week 2. They aren't in Week 1, obviously, because the Chargers are the biggest favorite.
22:54But Week 2 against San Francisco. Week 4 against Minnesota.
22:57Week 5 against the Bengals. You know, and 10 against the Colts.
23:00So, not necessarily great teams that they're catching. And then late against Denver, Chicago, Green Bay consecutively.
23:05And to close the season against Buffalo and New England.
23:08So, probably half the weeks, they might be the longest, the biggest underdog of the week.
23:13And it's just a matter of whether people have that team available to pick.
23:17And how they choose to go about it. So, if kind of the average expectation of the Dolphins comes true, they're going to be picked against a lot.
23:26Well, and when I look through the entire schedule for the Dolphins, like I'm trying to think, like, if there could be
23:32one game that they may be favored. Maybe at home against the Jets the end of November.
23:37Maybe. And that depends on what the quarterback situation is.
23:40If Geno Smith is still the quarterback there at that point.
23:43But, yeah, the Dolphins, it's going to be different.
23:46I do not have them favored in any game.
23:49Yeah, yeah. The closest, well, okay. I take that back.
23:52We got them 50-50 against the Jets at home.
23:55Okay. Week 12. Yeah. And that's probably, again, the only game where if it's like gun to my head, you got to pick one.
24:02It's like, oh, all right. I guess I'll go there with the Dolphins.
24:06But part of this talk that we're having right now is the lookaheads.
24:09Because I feel like that's half the game in Survivor is kind of not only just anticipating people tendencies, but like the
24:16idea of like, all right, here's what I'm going to do in week six.
24:20Here's what I'm going to do in week seven.
24:23But the approach that I wanted to ask is, should we be thinking four or five, maybe even six weeks ahead?
24:29Or again, like you said earlier, should we just take it kind of week by week?
24:34Because I think there is probably reason to do both.
24:37But I have the feeling like if you just take it week by week, there's something that inherently makes me feel uncomfortable.
24:43I don't play if by week by week, you mean play it on the cuff each week, make your decision that week.
24:50Don't look ahead at all. That is definitely not how I would play it.
24:54Is the NFL unpredictable? There are elements of it that are unpredictable.
24:58Is it completely unpredictable? No. In fact, when you look back and the teams we put at the top eight and the
25:04bottom eight, usually at the end of the year, like six of those eight teams were favored a lot at the top all year long.
25:12Other than a quarterback injury situation. And usually, unless we have a situation like the commanders two years ago, where it was
25:18a rookie quarterback and a new coach emerge, most of those bottom teams are going to be near the bottom and going to be underdogs throughout the season.
25:27There are occasional surprises. So it's not completely unpredictable.
25:29In fact, we can predict it pretty well, like within like five, 10% of the expected win odds in a given week, but for quarterback changes.
25:37And which are unpredictable. We didn't know Burrow was going to miss the middle of the season last year.
25:43You're Jaden Daniels going to get hurt. Those things change some survivor impact.
25:47So my view is you play it as you know it, just like you would play poker or anything else based on
25:53the cards in your whole hand and what you see out on the flop.
25:57If the flop has occurred and you make the best decision you can, and then you reevaluate when a new card comes up.
26:04So when the new result or a quarterback gets hurt, well, then I reevaluate my projections and maybe my plan changes.
26:11So I don't set my plan in stone, but I also don't just assume I should pick based only on this.
26:17Yeah. And then you have to be adaptable. And I think the one thing that I hear a lot when people talk
26:23about survivor pools with their strategy, and I just, I disagree.
26:27But again, I wanted to know if this is also something you agree with or disagree with is that people will just
26:33say, just take the biggest spread each week and you're golden.
26:37And I'm like, that's the, I don't want to say that's the dumbest thing I've heard, but that does not sound like a good rule to live by.
26:45Do you think that that's like the biggest mistake that people make when it comes to survivor pools?
26:50Or is there something else that we should be aware of?
26:54Some people make that mistake. Obviously, you're going to run out of teams if you just take the bit.
26:59You can't do that throughout the whole season because you are limited to picking each team once.
27:04Like the Rams are probably going to be the biggest favorite in three or four weeks.
27:09Maybe the Ravens and two or three others, right?
27:12Seahawks probably in a couple. I think this year, maybe it was a little more spread out.
27:17The schedules seem more balanced where the bad teams are kind of catching a lot of teams where that hasn't always been the case.
27:24But you're still, you still can't get through probably maybe more than 10, 11 weeks doing that.
27:29And then you're going to be like, oh, wait, I forgot to plan ahead.
27:33Now I used all these teams and now I'm taking a three point favorite.
27:37And so you can't do it that way. Other mistakes, I think, are just not paying attention to how other people might play it.
27:45I mean, you have to think about that you're playing a contest of people.
27:49To me, there is no absolute perfect pick unless you tell me how people are picking.
27:54Like if you tell me the Raiders are 15, 20% this week in week one, I want to be off them.
28:00But if you tell me they're under 5%, I want to be on them because I'm playing against the people.
28:06And so if 20% want to take a three and a half point favorite, I will make a different pick and hope that loses.
28:13Because that's just too much risk to put that many people on.
28:17And I want to play against it and play the odds it can happen.
28:21There is no perfect pick. So I think paying attention to how others are picking, where the steam is, are also mistakes people can make.
28:28Yeah. And it's not to say that betting lines can't be indicative of maybe an outcome.
28:33But the idea of just going, well, whoever's the 10 point favorite that week, that's where we're going.
28:38And it's like, well, that's not always the case.
28:41Upsets happen in the NFL. And especially if the group is mostly going with that, then that's probably not where you want to go.
28:48Because you do almost seem like there is times where you want to be a contrarian a little bit when it comes to survivor pools.
28:56For sure. And also, if you just go by spreads, you're going to miss some of the win odds subtleties.
29:02Like there's not that much difference between like a seven and a half and eight and a half and win odds if
29:08you go with the eight and a half. But there is actually a pretty big difference between a six and a half
29:15and a seven and a half in how the market is viewing that team to go over the key number.
29:21And it changes the odds quite a bit. They're not willing to push over until they think that team's a significantly better option to win the game.
29:29So, yeah, don't just go by spreads. Look at win odds.
29:32And also don't just go by that. You want to look at the whole schedule.
29:37You know, some teams are going to have eight great spots.
29:40Maybe this isn't the week to push in on them because you have relatively good options elsewhere.
29:45And there are some weeks in the future where that's not going to be the case.
29:50Right. Right. Okay. So I'm going to give you a hypothetical scenario here, Jim.
29:54All right. So pretend you and I are at a party.
29:57We're having a couple of drinks. You know, we're talking football.
30:00Somebody in the background hears that you do survivor pools and they come stumbling over.
30:05They're like, hey, Jason, what do you think is the best way that I could win my pool?
30:10And you don't want to end up having a long conversation with this guy.
30:14So you just want to give him a quick 60 seconds and get out of there.
30:19What would you tell the stumbler how to not stumble in his pool?
30:23I would, first of all, have him pull out his phone and set a reminder on the calendar and on his phone.
30:30So he gets his picks in each week because maybe he won't remember that if he talked to me and he's drunk.
30:36But because to be honest with you, no picks is way worse than even making a bad pick.
30:42You have a chance. You have a chance in the NFL to make a pick.
30:46You'd be surprised how many people, like there's just dead money in all these pools.
30:51You're going to see it each week. People forget or people just miss the deadline.
30:55And three, four, five percent of the pool just gets chopped by not making a pick.
31:00So showing up, you're plus EV if you just show up.
31:03I'm serious. Just show up and make a pick.
31:06Don't forget. And then secondly, try to think about where the best spot to use teams.
31:11Here's where you're going to win. If I can simplify it, cut out all the math about all the EV.
31:16If I can put it in plain English. Your chances of winning pools go up if you use teams in the best spot to use.
31:24One of the top two or three spots to use them.
31:27If you can consistently get that, that's like getting CLV.
31:30If I consistently use the Rams in one of their three best spots this year, the Lions in one of their three best spots, all these teams.
31:38For all the teams that are going to get used up, that's a standard.
31:42And then for the teams that I don't have to pick the Giants.
31:46I don't have to pick the Bucks. I can.
31:49Well, for those teams, am I getting a, what I would call lower half team in a spot that's relatively good to use a lower half team?
31:57Am I getting good closing value or am I paying too much?
32:01Am I taking a too popular team when they're not that much more likely to win than, you know, am I taking the 68% at 20% usage?
32:09I did use some math there. Or am I taking a team that maybe is two or 3% lower, but nobody's picking them.
32:16I'm getting much better closing value if I do the latter.
32:19And I'm going to win more pools that way and win more money when I do.
32:24I want to give out a pick for week one, a survivor pick.
32:27Before we do that though, I want to give you an opportunity.
32:31I want to talk about Pool Genius a little bit more.
32:34And if you could give us a quick pitch on why like I should sign up for Pool Genius and what kind
32:41of tools that could help me win my pools, what's something that you would immediately refer to?
32:46Yeah, I put a lot of work into it.
32:49That's number one is every Tuesday I'm diving into these numbers.
32:52I'm projecting. I'm studying it. Every week I'm doing what I talked about.
32:56Like we're evaluating what happened the week before. I'm adjusting for injuries and I'm making the best decisions I can based on what the future looks like.
33:04So we have those and we offer those to our subscribers.
33:07You're going to see all that data. It goes into our tools for season planning, optimal path, lets you explore those things.
33:14The other thing I would say is, I mean, we just have lots of great tools for identifying and customizing to your pools.
33:21Like if you play, tell us you play in a massive pool.
33:24We're going to treat that differently on the advice we give.
33:27Then if you're playing with 30 buddies and the pool's probably going to end around week eight, nine, ten, we're going to
33:34value those teams differently and give you that advice.
33:37So those are the main things is we put a lot of work into it.
33:41I spend most of my Tuesdays like running through Mondays and Tuesdays, running through the injury reports, reevaluating teams, looking at market
33:48data so that we're giving you the best advice, not only for this week, but how we think the rest of the
33:54season is most likely to play out so that you have an edge against your competition.
33:59All right. Pool genius, Jason List. Now, I want to talk about week one.
34:03Let's each make a week one survivor pick presented by DraftKings.
34:07So, Jason, this was the pick that I came down to because based on the information that I've seen you posted with
34:13pool genius, it looks like teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to get a majority of
34:20action in week one given their matchup. So I wanted to avoid that, but I didn't want to take some crazy pick.
34:26So this pick I went with was Steelers over Falcons.
34:29And when I looked at the Steelers schedule and I'm just looking at, you know, look ahead lines, this might be the
34:36only time that I actually feel comfortable taking them against any opponent, just given the fact that Aaron Rodgers at his age
34:42will be the healthiest he'll be probably all year.
34:45The Falcons defense, pretty questionable overall. They've lost a lot in their pass rush.
34:49And then a quarterback situation on Atlanta is equally disgusting.
34:52So that was kind of where I fell. Steelers over Falcons in week one.
34:56Before you give out your pick, please tell me what you think about that pick and try not to hurt my feelings too much.
35:04Yeah, it wouldn't be my top pick on the board.
35:07But that said, I think it's a it is one of let me pull the list up here.
35:12I'll just give you it is one of five, six, seven, seven picks that I think are reasonable.
35:17Meaning outside those seven, if you picked one of the other 25 this week in anything but a really weird pool that
35:24it was making several picks and things like that.
35:27If you're just in a pick where you need one pick this week, there's probably seven teams I would I would say are reasonable.
35:34I'll give you those. I mean, they're the ones that are gonna be most popular, but I wouldn't I wouldn't go beyond
35:40Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Las Vegas, Cincinnati or Pittsburgh.
35:43Those are the teams I can justify. I'm not using the Rams, Seattle, Kansas City, Baltimore as a three and a half point favorite.
35:50You will find so many better spots. It just makes no sense to me.
35:54And Pittsburgh's right at that cut line. They're right at a field goal.
35:58Here's where I think they have some value. If people get too high on the Las Vegas, who is favored by a
36:05half point more and has win odds, maybe two or three percent higher.
36:09Pittsburgh's like a counter to that. Like I'm not taking Las Vegas.
36:12I'm fading them. I'm going with Pittsburgh instead. Slightly more risk than that pick.
36:16Similar concept. You're not using either of these teams much the rest of the year.
36:21And I'm trying to be contrarian. So and that that's where I think it makes sense.
36:26Right. It's kind of a counter to the Las Vegas.
36:29I'm going to be boring. Honestly, I mean, I don't think there's a great pick this week for all the strategic reasons
36:35like the Chargers popular, but easily the best, the biggest favorite and the best matchup.
36:40Jacksonville catching a team with some uncertainty. I don't think Cleveland's going to be good, but there are some uncertainty factors there.
36:46Uh, Las Vegas. My gosh. Um, new coaches for both teams.
36:50Just a lot of things that scare me like to make it my topic.
36:54Philadelphia and Cincinnati. I think decent contrarian plays, but also have future value.
36:58Lots of other weeks you could use them. So it's kind of like, am I gaining that much by going to them versus Las Vegas versus Pittsburgh?
37:06So those are debates. So Chargers, honestly, and Jacksonville, we talked about Jacksonville.
37:10Um, they make sense, but they're going to be popular too.
37:13And probably relatively speaking, more popular lower EV than the Chargers.
37:16So honestly, if I'm picking my one pick and it's boring because I can make the arguments against it.
37:22The Chargers, I think are a solid pick. If I think I'm good at survivor, I want to advance this week and then start differentiating after this week.
37:30But that's that I will have Pittsburgh in play on some of my portfolio because I play a lot of injuries.
37:36I will have a little bit of some of those teams.
37:40What's going to be the boring pick then? Is it going to be the Chargers?
37:44I mean, if, if I had to make one pick and you told me anything other than, you know, maybe in the,
37:51maybe in pools that require you to pick two picks like the last half of the season.
37:56But they, they have a couple other good spots, but this is one of them.
38:00I mean, if you're going to tell me, I, if you tell me in week 10, you can take the Chargers as
38:07a 10 and a half point favorite and other people are going to be on some four and a half and three and a half sign me up.
38:15So I don't see how it's that much different.
38:18They are a plus EV play. They are a solid play, but on a spectacular play.
38:23I don't think there is a great play this week.
38:26Like I said. Yeah. And week one is always a little tricky too, with all the turnover and we still need some more data to collect.
38:33So I'm going to go with the Steelers over the Falcons.
38:37You are going to take the Chargers in week one.
38:40Those are our week one survivor picks. You can go download the DraftKings sports app and use promo code Action Network when signing up.
38:47Plus check out all of the pool options there that are on DraftKings for some fun survivor action.
38:52So that'll do it for us here on the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings.
38:57Go check out Pool Genius. Our listeners get a discount if you visit PoolGenius.com and slash action.
39:02You could also find a link in the podcast description that'll take you right there.
39:06So we're going to be back on the Action Network podcast with football shows soon.
39:11So make sure you're subscribed. Subscribe. Don't forget to leave us a five star rating review wherever you listen.
39:16So he's Jason Lisk. I'm Jill Galant. Thank you again for listening to the Action Network podcast with Bone Shows.
39:22Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
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