2026 NFC Betting Preview | Part 1
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 39 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 26, 2026
Published
Wed, August 26, 2026
33
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
Blake CorumCarson BeckJack StrandKyren WilliamsMatthew StaffordMichael Penix Jr.Ted HurstBaker MayfieldBijan RobinsonBryce YoungBucky IrvingChris OlaveDarren WallerDavante Adams
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
PositiveProjection57:21
Baker Mayfield is expected to bounce back this season, as he was clearly playing through multiple injuries to various body parts across 16 of his 17 games last year.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveProjection65:05
Bijan Robinson is described as the best running back in the NFL, serving as a key talent for the Falcons' offense.
Insight pageBlake Corum
PositiveUsage21:25
Blake Corum (referred to as Blake Horham) was a top-three running back in success rate last year, contributing to the Rams' elite rushing attack.
Insight pagePositiveValue23:16
Blake Corum is a strong value at 9-1 to lead the NFC West in rushing touchdowns. He saw significant usage in the second half of last year, including 13 carries inside the five-yard line. Despite only scoring on four of those, he ranked fifth in success rate among 42 qualified backs on short-yardage runs, suggesting positive touchdown regression. He serves as a direct anti-correlation play to Kyron Williams and would become the favorite if Williams misses time.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection89:47
Bryce Young has not taken the expected leap for a number one overall pick. The coaching staff is shielding him with a low pass rate over expected and a heavy reliance on the run game, as he attempted only 9% of his passes downfield last year.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeUsage55:13
Bucky Irving has struggled to perform effectively in the outside zone running scheme that the Buccaneers are implementing under new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson.
Insight pageCarson Beck
NegativeRole44:10
The Cardinals drafted Carson Beck in the third round, and there is speculation he could see playing time late in the season if the team enters 'tank mode' to evaluate their roster.
Insight pageNegativeValue72:55
Carson Beck is priced at 28-1 for Offensive Rookie of the Year, with the expectation that he could potentially start the final handful of games for his team.
Insight pageChris Olave
NegativeInjury81:36
Chris Olave is the focal point of the Saints' passing game, but there are significant concerns regarding his health after he left practice with an undisclosed injury. His availability is critical to the team's offensive floor.
Insight pageDarren Waller
NegativeRole91:03
Darren Waller is expected to provide a boost to the Panthers' tight end room, which has lacked a reliable pass-catcher since Greg Olsen, though his durability remains a concern.
Insight pageDavante Adams
PositiveUsage21:00
Davante Adams helped fix the Rams' red zone issues in 2024, contributing to the team's increased offensive efficiency when paired with McVay's shift toward multi-tight end sets.
Insight pageJack Strand
PositiveBreakout68:08
Jack Strand has flashed significant potential in the preseason, displaying rushing ability reminiscent of Josh Allen and strong tools as a quarterback. Despite being an undrafted rookie from a D2 school, he has earned praise for his loyalty and raw talent. While he looked overwhelmed in his first preseason game, he rebounded to look like the best quarterback in the preseason during his second outing. He is considered a high-upside long-shot lottery ticket for Offensive Rookie of the Year if he earns playing time due to the injury-prone nature of the Falcons' quarterback room.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper68:48
Undrafted rookie Jack Strand has flashed in the preseason for the Falcons, showing enough potential to spark conversation about his ability to make starts despite his D2 college background.
Insight pageJacoby Brissett
NegativeRole42:57
Jacoby Brissett is expected to start for the Cardinals, having been signed to a contract with $15 million guaranteed.
Insight pageJadarian Price
PositiveRole10:37
Jadarian Price is expected to start early in the season for the Seahawks due to Zach Charbonnet's injury, following his selection in the first round of the draft.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury72:38
Jordan Tyson, previously a favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, is dealing with an injury that significantly impacts his outlook. Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare worries he may struggle to stay healthy even after returning, potentially leaving the Saints' receiving corps thin.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeDepth Chart10:33
Kenneth Walker has departed the Seattle Seahawks to join the Kansas City Chiefs, leaving the Seahawks backfield to be headlined by rookie Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveUsage21:25
Kyron Williams was a top-three running back in success rate last year, anchoring an elite Rams run game.
Insight pageNegativeUsage24:11
Kyron Williams remains the clear favorite in the Rams' backfield, having recorded 18 rush attempts inside the five-yard line last year. He has not missed a game since Blake Corum was drafted, but his health is the primary factor that would shift the backfield workload to Corum.
Insight pageMac Jones
PositiveValue33:55
Mac Jones is considered the best backup quarterback in the league. His presence provides a high floor for the 49ers, as evidenced by his 5-3 record in games he started last year, which helps mitigate the impact of potential injuries to Brock Purdy.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection16:40
Matthew Stafford is 38 years old, and while the Rams' offense remains elite, his age and the team's lack of depth make him a high-risk asset if injuries occur.
Insight pageNegativeInjury75:17
Matthew Stafford is viewed as an injury risk due to his age and previous back issues. Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare estimates a 50-50 chance he misses over 1.5 games, with a 10-15% chance of missing five or more games.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
NegativeInjury65:11
Michael Penix Jr. is currently ramping up from an injury and faces questions regarding his accuracy and touch in the intermediate range.
Insight pageNegativeInjury71:22
Michael Penix Jr. is highlighted as having a severe injury history, including at least three torn ACLs, leading to concerns about his ability to stay healthy.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeBust35:36
Mike Evans is a fade candidate for his reception total (under 59.5) due to injury concerns and the crowded nature of the 49ers' offense. He is currently dealing with a groin injury and has struggled to get through practice, raising concerns about his ability to stay healthy and his target volume in an offense featuring Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeInjury18:54
Puka Nacua is dealing with a hip flexor injury and faces potential suspension concerns, adding to the health risks for the Rams' aging offense.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury30:46
Ricky Pearsall is out for the season, which is a significant blow to the 49ers' depth and receiving corps.
Insight pageSam Darnold
NegativeBust11:49
Sam Darnold led the league with 20 turnovers last year, creating significant concern for the Seahawks' offensive stability following the departure of offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak.
Insight pageTed Hurst
PositiveBreakout56:00
Ted Hurst is a high-upside rookie wide receiver for the Buccaneers with impressive size and speed who could flash early in his career; he is compared to Cardinals receiver Michael Wilson.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper72:58
Ted Hurst is identified as a realistic long-shot bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year at 80-1 odds. He could emerge as a primary target on the outside if injuries occur to other receivers.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
NegativeInjury71:10
Tua Tagovailoa is viewed as having major injury risk, with Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare noting that one more concussion could end his career.
Insight pageTy Simpson
NegativeValue21:33
The Rams' decision to draft Ty Simpson in the first round as Matthew Stafford's heir apparent is viewed as a move that hurts the team's immediate win-now ceiling.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
NegativeInjury10:40
Zach Charbonnet is dealing with an injury that will likely lead to Jadarian Price starting early in the season for the Seahawks.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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2:34And we are underway. What's up, Degenerate Nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings.
2:40This is the NFL Off-Season Divisional Previews Part 3.
2:43I'm Stucky and joining me today is my fellow co-host and good friend, the one and only Sean Kerner.
2:49Today we are covering the NFC West and the esteemed NFC South.
2:54If you missed it, the AFC episodes are already out.
2:57I did all four of those divisions. And I'll be doing the two other NFC divisions, the NFC North and NFC East.
3:05Two super intriguing divisions with Brandon Anderson tomorrow. So make sure you check that out.
3:10Before you know it, this season will be here.
3:13Kerner, what's going on, brother? What's up? Yeah, I can't wait for the regular season to start.
3:19As always, I'm so excited. Football's back. I've been grinding preseason.
3:23Usually by the end of week two, I'm over it.
3:26If you remember last year when we were in Chicago, I lost that Jaguars spread bet and like double, triple down endgame.
3:34Lost that and then that was the last bet of the preseason.
3:38This weekend, I went four and three, but it was one of those weeks where I think every bet I won, I
3:46probably should have lost and every bet I lost, I should have won.
3:50So I'm moving on from preseason probably, especially because week three is such a shit show.
3:56That I'm looking forward to week one, looking forward to talk all these teams, my favorite division, NFC West, first and foremost.
4:04So I hope you're doing well though. Yeah, I had to have you on for the NFC West.
4:10Yeah, I just don't have time for preseason to grind preseason with college football and NFL prep.
4:16I had one bet in the preseason. I told you on the Hall of Fame game under.
4:22Oh my God. I apologize for that. There was 34 points in the second quarter.
4:27So that was the end of my only points in the preseason betting.
4:32Well, there were zero points in the first quarter.
4:35So technically... It was a dead shot. I should have just played the first quarter under.
4:40It was a dead shot under. There were great punts like down to the one and no one can move the ball.
4:48And then all of a sudden, Haynes King and Carson Beck turned into Mahomes versus Brady.
4:54But yeah, I had to have you on for the NFC West.
4:58So let's start there. This is one of the best divisions in the NFL in spite of the lowly Cardinals.
5:05God bless them. They don't have it easy. There are 100 to 1 to win the division.
5:11The Rams are the odds-on favorite to win the division at DraftKings at minus 105 in a division that has the defending
5:18Super Bowl champ, Seattle Seahawks, who are about 2-1.
5:22And then the San Francisco 49ers are around 3-1.
5:25Let's start with the Seattle Seahawks. An incredible year last year.
5:29If you go by DVOA, they were the fourth best DVOA team ever.
5:33And if you look back at the 10 or the nine other previous DVOA best teams, so if you just look at
5:41the top 10, which would include Seattle at number four, the average win decline the next year is only about one and a half.
5:49All but one of the previous nine finished with double-digit wins.
5:53The Seahawks' win total this year is sitting at 10 and a half, slightly juiced to the over.
5:59They are essentially just running it back on offense with two exceptions.
6:03You lose your offensive coordinator, who took the head coaching job with the Raiders.
6:08And this is who's going to replace him. Well, it's the Shanahan assistant from last year.
6:14This is an incestuous division. I mean, you just have Shanahan, McVay, offensive trees, and then you're going to have the growing
6:22McDonald defensive trees as they try to stop the cat-and-mouse game between McDonald and the Shanahan offenses.
6:28But the Shanahan-McVay offenses are just all over this entire division.
6:31And the other change is Kenneth Walker has moved on to the Kansas City Chiefs.
6:37So the backfield will now be rookie. Jadaron Price will probably start early on with Zach Charbonnet's injury.
6:43But those two will be headlining the backfield. The defense does have some more changes.
6:48I mean, they lose, you know, Boy Maffey, who is a, you know, deft piece edge rusher.
6:54And then I think the more important losses are Kobe Bryant and Rik Wollin.
6:59And the reason I bring up those losses is one of, look, one of the, Mike McDonald's are the best defensive, in
7:07my opinion, the best defensive coach in the NFL right now.
7:11One of their absolute superpowers last year was not just, right now in the NFL, if you're able to play a nickel
7:18on the field for a majority of the time, look at the best defenses in the NFL, and that nickel can play the run, can blitz, can cover.
7:28And you don't have to adjust to the heavier personnel sets that you're going to see from a lot of these teams in the division.
7:37But, you know, an increase in that across the NFL, that is a luxury.
7:42And every team in the NFL is trying to find that nickel.
7:46The Seahawks have that nickel on Iman Warre. But really, Iman Warre was, he lined up as a linebacker on the defensive
7:53line, just as much as he did in the nickel.
7:57There would be, I mean, look, you look, the Seahawks were in nickel or dime 95% of the time.
8:04There's no base defense here. And a lot of times, what their superpower was, you would have Weatherspoon in the slot, Iman
8:11Warre next to him, basically in dime. And they could defend the run with no fall off.
8:17The defensive line is really good. They just had so much flexibility.
8:21Do they now lose that flexibility in the secondary and that versatility and the ability to move Weatherspoon into the slot without Bryant and Woolen?
8:30They went into the draft and they tried to, you know, tried to replace some of those defenders.
8:36And they went and got Bud Clark, who I loved, basically a four-year starter at TCU, but he's out for the year.
8:44So do they have as much flexibility in the secondary?
8:48I don't think so off the bat. How much does that hurt?
8:52You know McDonald's going to have some nuance to this defensive group this year.
8:57They're still going to be very good, but maybe not as versatile on the back end.
9:02So that's definitely one of my concerns. They did stay healthy last year.
9:07So maybe that's where some regression comes from. But it's not like this was an overly fortunate team and they did play
9:14a tough schedule and they will play a tough schedule again this year.
9:19And part of that is due to their division.
9:22What are you seeing with this Seahawks team here?
9:25Are you itching to fade them after the Super Bowl run?
9:29Or do you think the floor is just so high because of McDonald in this defense?
9:35Yeah, I think fading them is probably the way they go, but probably not.
9:40I'm not thinking that strongly about it to tie up money for months to do so.
9:45Maybe early in the season. But I think when you're talking about the secondary, I mean, when you look at their secondary
9:53last year, it seemed like every week somebody was out, some key piece of the secondary was out.
9:59And Tai Okada stepped up for them last year.
10:02And then like you said, they drafted Bud Clark in the second round, maybe to push Okada.
10:08If you look, it seemed like every week last year they had a key piece in their secondary out and he just
10:16kind of had to step up as that guy.
10:19So, you know, they have him there. I think he's more important than people realize because of that.
10:25But they probably can't survive injuries as much this year with the guy, you know, Wollin and Bryant gone now.
10:32So I think this defense will still be very good elite.
10:36The offense would be where I have some concerns.
10:39You know, the offensive line should be fully intact.
10:42Ton of continuity where they, you know, they're returning all five starters, but also I think all six backups are returning.
10:50So that's critical. I'm not too worried about losing Kenneth Walker.
10:54You know, they have enough guys there to kind of keep the boat afloat.
10:59Not sure your thoughts on Jadarian Price. I thought that was an interesting pick in the first round.
11:05But I think overall, you know, the offense should still stay humming.
11:09But the real concern for me is, you know, Clint Kubiak being, you know, off to Vegas.
11:15And Brian Fleury, just not sure what to expect.
11:18I'm assuming he's going to want to keep things the same or as much as possible.
11:24But all it takes is just, you know, the play cadence could be slightly different.
11:29You know, Sam Darnold led the league with 20 turnovers.
11:32So this team, you know, was a Super Bowl caliber team based on the defense.
11:38So if the offense takes a pretty big step back, you know, that's going to be massive and put even more pressure
11:45on the defense, especially, you know, in this division.
11:48So they're, you know, a scary team to back or invest in going forward.
11:53Not sure I'd necessarily fade them. But this is a team that could take a big step back, at least on the offensive side this year.
12:02Yeah, I mean, those are the concerns for me.
12:06It's the offensive coordinator drop off. And you mentioned the offensive line.
12:10Yeah, a lot of continuity there. You also added Bo Stevens in the draft, who maybe eventually takes over for Bradford, who's
12:17the weak link at guard on the offensive line.
12:21My main concern is the offensive coordinator change. What does that drop off?
12:25And like you said, we just don't know. But I can't imagine it goes as swimmingly as last year.
12:32So there's only downside risk there. And then just is the – I don't think the versatility in the secondary as of
12:39this moment is as good as it was last year.
12:43And this is a aging defensive line. So, you know, they're guys that they're relying off of, you know, up front, off the edge.
12:51Is there, you know, some increased injury risk? Is there a drop off in some of the players?
12:58But I just have too much respect for McDonald.
13:01I thought I was going to be fading the Seahawks.
13:04But I'm at like 10.8 in my projections. I feel like I'm too high, but that's what I came out of.
13:12And you have to also mention their special teams were dominant last year.
13:16Maybe they're not as good as they were, but it's still a pretty good unit.
13:21The Seahawks will definitely be in the mix. But this is a very, very tough division.
13:27Let's move on to the favorites in the division, the Los Angeles Rams.
13:31The Rams last year finished 12-5. Their five losses were by 17 combined points.
13:36And if you remove the Jalen Carter returned blocked field goal, the worst, the low point of the NFL season for me,
13:44getting four and a half with the Rams in Philly against that Philly team.
13:49And I mean, you look back at that line at the end of the year and you're like, that's a joke.
13:56And the way that it lost. But if you remove that Jalen Carter ridiculous returned blocked field goal, their five losses were by a combined 11 points.
14:06So you had that Philly loss. The Seattle loss on the fluky two-point conversion.
14:11The San Francisco fluky loss. The Carolina, which was a pretty fluky loss.
14:15And then they got beat pretty soundly by Atlanta.
14:18That was like the one game where they definitely didn't deserve to win.
14:23This team easily could have won 15 games last year.
14:26And they finished the year as my number one power rated team.
14:30And they went in to the offseason and said, okay, what was our weakness?
14:35And it was definitely the defense. Because the defense, you know, through the first 10 weeks, it was a top three defense.
14:43If you look at a lot of the advanced metrics.
14:47But it fell off a cliff late in the year.
14:50And if you really look under the hood, over the first 10 weeks, they faced C.J.
14:56Stroud in the opener. Texans had to change their offensive line before kickoff due to an injury in warmups.
15:02Cam Ward in his second career start. They lost to Jalen Hurts in that broken Philly offense.
15:08They played a number of guys named Jones. Mack Jones twice.
15:12Daniel Jones. Cooper Rush instead of Lamar Jackson. Tyler Shuck in his first start.
15:17And then Trevor Lawrence in the first half of the year when that offense really wasn't unlocked yet.
15:23So the schedule was real and a number of different ways broke their way.
15:28And it hid some of the issues on that defense, mainly in the secondary.
15:33It's a defense under Shua that likes to play a lot of light boxes.
15:38And they get away with it. They can still defend the run well, running a lot of dime.
15:44But the secondary was a little short on talent last year.
15:48So what did they do? They went out and they got McDuffie and Watson from the Chiefs.
15:54And then they signed or they traded for the Defensive Player of the Year in Myles Garrett.
16:00And they might get Aaron Donald back. I'm not sure what to expect from Donald, but if he does come back.
16:07But his addition certainly can't hurt. And when you already have the young pieces on that defensive line and add Myles Garrett, it's not like they need him.
16:17But it could only be an added bonus. So this defense definitely got better.
16:22The offense is just run it back. That's what they're doing.
16:26And it was the best offense in the NFL last year.
16:30So why not? They are a bit old in a couple of places.
16:34I mean, like Stafford's 38. Adams is 33. Some of their offensive linemen are 30 plus.
16:40So, you know, maybe there's some... Obviously, you can't lose Stafford.
16:44But injuries are definitely something to monitor with the Rams because this roster is very...
16:49I would say it's very star-driven. And just because of the way they build it, the depth is pretty weak at a number of positions.
16:57And one of the positions that really steps out from a depth perspective where they're pretty weak...
17:03And by the way, because of those depth issues, their special teams stink.
17:08And that was one of the main differences between the Rams and the Seahawks last year.
17:14Was the Seahawks had an elite special teams group.
17:17The Rams, once again, they can't cover... Their coverage teams are bad.
17:21They're special. I mean, look at the Eagles game.
17:24Two blocked kicks. And it was just a disaster all year.
17:28And I'm not sure they really solved those issues.
17:31So the special teams could be poor again. But the offensive line, they got to stay healthy.
17:37And that starts with... And when they are healthy, they're an elite offensive line group.
17:42But Alaric Jackson, their left tackle, may be facing a suspension.
17:46I don't know. They already handed out suspension, so I think he's okay.
17:51But if he does get a suspension, it would be the second offense for domestic violence, which would mean six games.
17:58He's also... There's blood clot issues that could always pop up.
18:02And I believe he didn't play in that Falcons game last year.
18:06And their offense didn't look the same. He missed...
18:09He had a suspension two years ago. They missed the first two games they started out.
18:15I went to... Offense is just not the same without him.
18:18Because what happens when he's out? I mean, God forbid you ever have to go to A.J.
18:24Arcuri, who's still having nightmares about what Aiden Hutchinson did to him.
18:29But you're looking at probably David Westenbury coming in as the next depth guy.
18:34Because they drafted Keegan Trost from Missouri. And one of the things that McVay liked about him was he has played like every position.
18:42But he's hurt now. Probably won't be ready for the start of the season.
18:47And he's a rookie. So the offensive line depth, you look at the wide receiver depth.
18:52It's like Nakua. Maybe he gets a suspension. I think he'll be okay.
18:57But he's also dealing with a hip flexor. So the health of that offense is...
19:02For a decently aging offense is certainly something to watch.
19:06When you look at the schedule, it is a brutal first five weeks.
19:10I mean, this is the hardest first five weeks in the NFL, in my opinion.
19:15You start in Australia against the 49ers. Come home for the Giants on a Monday night football game.
19:22Short week at Denver early in the year, which is never an easy place to play.
19:27Then you go to Philly. And by the way, if you have...
19:31These are really tough games. And if you have some of these suspensions or injuries, that would be magnified.
19:38And then you come home to play Buffalo on Monday night football.
19:42That is a brutal first five games. There's lots of travel involved there as well.
19:48But this offense, as long as they stay healthy, arguably the best in the NFL again.
19:53The defense definitely upgraded. McDuffie's probably going to play on the outside because you have Quentin Lake to play nickel.
20:00But the cornerback room is much better. They will have just more talent out there in their dime looks.
20:07Are you buying or selling the Rams, who are the Super Bowl favorites, coming into the year?
20:13Do you have any concerns about this offense duplicating its elite production from last year?
20:18Yeah, well, I'm definitely buying them. They're my top power-rated team right now.
20:22But I think the market's in agreement. I think everybody's super high on them.
20:27I think the Miles Garrett trade really just took it to the next level.
20:32And I'm just assuming that Aaron Donald's going to sign before week one or join the team before week one.
20:39And then the market's going to bump them up even more.
20:43So I guess now would be the window to invest before Aaron Donald makes it official.
20:49But I think last year, the first bet I made of the entire season was Matthew Stafford over 22.5 or 23.5 passing touchdowns.
20:57I thought bringing in Devontae Adams would help kind of fix the red zone issues they had in 2024.
21:03But really, it was McVay changing it up where they're not using as much 11 personnel.
21:09They're using way more two, three tight end sets, especially in the red zone.
21:14So we just saw their efficiency go way up.
21:17And Adams obviously helped with that. So I think this is a very sustainable approach.
21:22The run game was elite. Both Kyron Williams and Blake Horham were top three in success rate.
21:28A lot of things to like. Like the one concern is the fact that they just used their first round pick on
21:36Ty Simpson because, you know, this is a win now team.
21:40They could have really added somebody. I don't know, like a Makai Lemon or Casey Concepcion, somebody that could help them this year.
21:48But they went with the route of, you know, taking potentially Matthew Stafford's heir apparent.
21:53So that kind of dings, that kind of hurts their ceiling a little bit, in my opinion.
21:59And like you mentioned, they have the third toughest schedule in my strength of schedule rankings, which is kind of odd.
22:06Usually, you know, good teams have an easier strength of schedule because they don't have to play themselves.
22:12So they have a genuinely difficult schedule, which I think will kind of slow them down a little bit, especially in the
22:20beginning of the season, like you mentioned. But this is, you know, a pretty top-heavy team where a couple of key injuries
22:28or suspensions up top will ding them down, you know, to, you know, just a top five, top ten team for me.
22:35But I think overall, this is the most complete team right now on both sides of the ball.
22:42And I have, you know, I have their win total right around 11.2.
22:46And their, you know, their win total is 11.5.
22:49So I don't think I would take the over or anything.
22:53I think there are some... 11.5 juice to the over.
22:57So I'm at like 11.35. So if anything, I'd look at the under just because that hard first five-game stretch, maybe that
23:04leads to some more potential injuries, right? The injury downside risk of the team that lacks depth in a tough division.
23:12I don't know if I really want to fade this team.
23:16I do. I have them almost two points better than every other team in the NFL right now on a neutral field.
23:23Yeah. And I don't know if I want to fade them.
23:27But from a numbers perspective, some of the downside risk given the division, the tough early start, it would be under nothing at 11.5.
23:36But I'm going to wait. I mean, it feels like the Rams are just going to keep getting that.
23:42Yeah. Can I interest you in a prop? Yeah.
23:45What do you got? This is on DraftKings. A little fun market here.
23:50But most rushing touchdowns in the NFC West. I think it's going to be a good one.
23:56My guy, Blake Corum, at 9-1. Because when you look at, you know, especially the second half of last year, they really
24:03made this more of a split backfield. So we had, you know, Kyron had 18 rush attempts inside the five last year.
24:11Corum had 13. He only scored on four of them.
24:15Where you can say maybe he got unlucky. Maybe he's just a terrible, you know, short yardage back.
24:21But when you look at short yardage situations everywhere else on the field, he ranked fifth in success rate out of, you
24:29know, 42 qualified backs on short yardage runs. So he just happened to run, you know, bad at the goal line.
24:36So I think we'll continue to see him get, you know, a lot of red zone rush attempts for a backup.
24:43And when you take a look out at the division, you know, I have him just about a half rushing touchdown projected than CMC.
24:52You know, CMC's like a really good pass catching back, tends to get a handful of touchdowns there.
24:58Love and Algier could kind of cannibalize each other a bit there.
25:02I don't know what's going to happen in Seattle.
25:05You know, you have Price, Wilson, Sharbs once he returns.
25:09You got AJ Barner taking tush pushes. So Corum, I mean, Corum is a direct anti-correlation play with the clear favorite, Kyron,
25:16where, you know, Kyron hasn't missed a game yet since Corum got drafted a couple years ago.
25:22If Kyron misses time, you know, Corum would now be the favorite in this market.
25:28So even if Kyron stays healthy, I would like 9-1.
25:31But just the fact that we might see Corum as a lead back in this offense for the first time this year,
25:39if Kyron misses time, 9-1 is way too good to pass up here.
25:43I like that. The only pushback would be, the Rams have this cheat code at like the 1 or 2 when they line up in 13 personnel.
25:53And then Stafford just looks at how they're covering Adams.
25:56And they basically just have a free touchdown either to him or someone else.
26:01What do you have? Like 10 touchdowns, 10 passing touchdowns from the 1 last year?
26:06So like maybe that reduces some of like the easy running back touchdowns.
26:11But it's not like Stafford's going to be sneaking them in from the 1.
26:16So I do like that. You mentioned the 13 personnel.
26:19Rams probably setting a trend, a trend that we're going to see an uptick in throughout the NFL.
26:26They ran 13 personnel and 31% of snaps. Do you know what the previous, what would you guess the previous high was for any team in NFL history?
26:35Oh, in NFL history? Since you're asking the question, like 10%?
26:3917, it was the fancy team. Like one of the Browns teams in like I think 2021.
26:45So they almost doubled the next highest rate. And I mentioned their light boxes.
26:50I mean this is a team that they had the league's highest pressure rate with only four pass rushers.
26:57They ranked number one in six DBs. And now their DB room is upgraded.
27:02So yeah, this defense got better. The offense still should cook.
27:05It really just comes down to like injuries. Can they stay healthy?
27:10Can the special teams get any better? But I agree with you.
27:14I hated their draft. I just like, I think they reached for Ty Simpson.
27:19Yeah. I mean, they get their quarterback of the future, but everything else they're doing is win now.
27:25So just go all in. Worry about two years from now, three years from now.
27:30And they're really lacking depth in a number of positions.
27:34And they get another tight end than like Max Clare.
27:37Like their depth, if you had to grade their depth across the roster, it's like F, F, F.
27:43And then tight end, it's like A plus. They have like 18 tight ends.
27:48Obviously, they use them a lot. But like who did they draft that's really going to help them this year?
27:55Like nobody, really. Right. Yeah. Clare does seem like, you know, Ferguson was kind of put on ice last year.
28:02And McVay's kind of always been like that, where he's like, this is the year Ferguson's going to break out for us in year two.
28:11That's probably what they're going to do with Clare.
28:14So I agree even he's not probably going to see much playing time this year, barring injury.
28:20Going back to special teams, though, like you made a great point, especially earlier in the season when Josh Cardy missed a
28:28field goal in that overtime loss to the Niners.
28:31You know, he only made 67% of field goals at them.
28:35Harrison Mavis, the thicker kicker, 92% field goal rate.
28:38A lot of those were, you know, 50 plus, which is very critical in today's NFL.
28:44But just even just like a kicker upgrade like that, I think will help some of those like closer games for them.
28:51But yeah. They definitely upgraded a kicker once he took over.
28:55Coverage units, just because their lack of depth are still iffy.
28:59But yeah, the kicker upgrade is definitely real and might have swung a game or two in their direction.
29:06And then, look, we talked about there's all those games that swung the other way, the two-point conversion in Seattle, you know, the block kick in Philly.
29:15One or two plays. The Rams were one or two plays away from winning the division, getting the one seed.
29:22Then they would have had the bye. They would have hosted Seattle.
29:26And then who knows, they maybe win the Super Bowl.
29:30Those are the margins in the NFL. Let's move on to the San Francisco 49ers.
29:35Win total, 10 and a half, juice to the under.
29:38This is a team last year. I don't, to me, Kyle Shanahan was the coach of the year last year.
29:45How did they win 12 games with all of their injuries?
29:49I mean, you go from, look at their defense.
29:52I mean, their defense was like a scout team unit and they beat Philadelphia.
29:57I mean, it was remarkable. And then Brock Purdy missed a ton of time.
30:02You name that, the only person who didn't miss was Christian McCaffrey, really.
30:07They somehow won 12 games in that division. Now they did go six and one in one possession games, if you include their playoff win.
30:15So they were pretty fortunate in that department. But once again, very unlucky on the injury front.
30:21They had a minus six turnover margin. And here's the thing.
30:25I wanted to buy this team, potential division sleeper.
30:28But is it the substation? I don't know. Look at them.
30:32Go pull up the depth chart right now. Just go to ESPN and pull up the depth chart.
30:38There's 17. I think half the rosters, there's a queue.
30:42They're all questionable already. And they lost Ricky Pearsall for the season.
30:46The injuries have already started. But if they stay healthy, this offense, it's a Shanahan offense.
30:52It's still going to be good. But there are injury questions.
30:55There are some age questions at a number of positions.
30:59And like, look, you bring in Mike Evans to be your number one.
31:04You bring in Christian Kirk. You can't really. And so George Kittle is 32.
31:08McCaffrey is now 30. You can't really complain if there are injuries because your offensive roster is full of injury risks, although
31:16it wasn't unfortunate what happened with Ricky Pearsall. Stribbling the rookies getting a lot of love.
31:22Curious to hear your thoughts on that. The defense is going to look a little different.
31:27Robert Salah leaves for Tennessee. Thought they had a good hire with Raheem Morris, who has worked under Shanahan.
31:34Defense, I think, is going to look a little different this year.
31:38You're going to see more five-man fronts. You're going to see them be more aggressive on third downs.
31:44I think, you know, they brought in Osa, who I think is a good fit for some of their fronts.
31:51We'll see if Upton Stout can take the next step.
31:55It's like that. The nickel's really important in Amoros.
31:58Defense, really important in every defense. But we'll see if he can take on the responsibility of being that star at the star position.
32:06And then that, you know, kind of hybrid linebacker position is one to watch in camp.
32:12But really, it just comes down to the injuries again.
32:15Can this team stay healthy? The division is obviously brutal.
32:19What are your thoughts on the 49ers this year?
32:22Yeah, just a lot to unpack there. Because like you said, the injuries, especially on defense last year with just, you know,
32:30Warner and Bosa went down early in the season.
32:33I just looked. I did what you told me.
32:36I'm looking at the depth chart right now. The entire offense has read, you know, questionable.
32:42I didn't even realize Juszczyk was hurt. You have Brandon Auk, reserve DNR, kind of a unique thing there.
32:48Pearsall's already out for the year. So I want to say, oh, they'll bounce back and have better injury luck this year.
32:56It's already not the case. We've had Shanahan and the owner, you know, have their offseason mishaps.
33:02It's just like there is already a lot of things that are red flags, worrisome, and we haven't even played a snap of the regular season yet.
33:11So like how bad could this get? You know, I always think that their drafts are always kind of hilarious.
33:18But Stribbling, they might have got somebody in Stribbling.
33:21I think at least he's going to essentially replace the Juwan Jennings role.
33:26He might be even better. Who knows? But he's critical because Mike Evans, I'm very worried about him re-injuring his hamstring at some point in the season.
33:35But he's already dealing with, I think, a groin injury.
33:39Like just the last couple of days at practice, he hasn't been able to get through it.
33:45So, you know, Debo, we'll see how he looks.
33:48It's just hanging on by a thread where, like you said, Shanahan probably should have been coach of the year.
33:55I think just having Mac Jones as their backup quarterback was huge last year.
34:00You know, he came in, went five and three.
34:03I would say the best backup QB in the league right now.
34:07So just having him kind of helps raise their floor.
34:11But they really need this defense to stay healthy.
34:14You know, they really need Warner and Bosa to stay healthy.
34:18But, you know, their strength of schedule also gets a little bit easier, surprisingly.
34:23Last year is sixth toughest. This year it's actually 19th.
34:26So they have a much easier schedule. I think when you talk about the Niners, it's always critical because they're a team
34:34where once they get to a lead, they're usually excellent at keeping it.
34:38And when they, you know, when they get down, they're really bad, you know, catching up, you know, playing from behind.
34:46So it's critical for them to get off to early start.
34:49So I think an easier schedule will certainly help.
34:53They also had some pretty bad interception luck last year.
34:56When you look at, you know, Mac Jones combined with Brock Purdy last year, if you look at their turnover worthy throw
35:04rate, I had them closer to, you know, 10 and a half picks.
35:08But they threw for around 16. So they're, you know, their interceptions were brutal for them last year.
35:15And expecting, you know, better turnover luck for them.
35:18But it just comes down to injury luck. And how could you ever assume that the Niners won't be in the bottom,
35:25you know, five teams when it comes to injuries, whether it's the substation or Shanahan just, you know, having extra tough practices or something else.
35:34Just, you know, something's going on there where they're just more injury prone for whatever reason.
35:40So kind of hard to really invest in or fade a team like that, right?
35:45If we're just kind of throwing our hands up, not knowing if they're going to stay healthy.
35:51So they're not a team. I'm looking too much into season long, you know, futures or props.
35:57Like Mike Evans under 59 and a half catches.
36:00DraftKings has that up right now. I think that would be a market I'd be interested in.
36:06I don't expect him to play every game. And even when he's in there, you know, they have enough weapons with McCaffrey,
36:14Debo, Sribbling, Kittle, where, you know, they probably don't need to spam him with double digit targets most weeks.
36:20Just kind of contain him to downfield red zone targets.
36:24So I think the way to fade him would be, you know, his counting stat in reception.
36:30So I think if anything, Evans under 59 and a half receptions would be where I'd go here.
36:36Yeah, you mentioned unlucky in interceptions. They were lucky in on in a red zone.
36:41Their offense was number one on offense and defense in the red zone.
36:46And with field goals, they went with Eddie Pinheiro.
36:49And this is a very rarity for the 49ers having good fortune on field goals.
36:54They went 33 of 36. Their opponents went 21 of 32, 66 percent versus 86 percent expected.
37:00And that matters when you go six and one in one possession games.
37:05So they definitely were fortunate. They had the highest hidden special teams value, which is all the things that are out of
37:12your control that you just get lucky on since 2017.
37:16So they were a bit fortunate in that department.
37:19And look, they won six straight to close between weeks 11 and 17 last year.
37:24They beat Arizona with Percet, Carolina, Cleveland with Shador, Tennessee, Indianapolis with Rivers, and then the Bears.
37:30So, you know, they really got a nice scheduling break at the end of the season to pad that record despite all of the injuries.
37:39I'll tell you how I'm thinking about investing in the 49ers.
37:43Curious to hear your thoughts on this. It's kind of a feel, just a feel bet.
37:48Because I do project. I have a ton of respect for Shanahan.
37:52I think the defense can only be better just on health alone.
37:57I project them. Their win total is 10 and a half, heavily juiced to the under.
38:02I project them right around 10 wins. So, like, I'm in line with the market there.
38:08But I'm thinking of betting over three and a half divisional wins at plus money.
38:13And my thinking there is you get, number one, you get your road game with the Cardinals.
38:19We're going to talk about next. It's the last game of the year.
38:23So, you assume that the Cardinals are probably, or there's a good chance they're in tank mode.
38:29Who knows who they're starting at quarterback. They might have their eyes on a top draft pick.
38:35And they might just punt who they're playing in that game.
38:39And your road game against the Rams is week one in Australia.
38:43Weird things happen week one. Who knows who the Rams, I mean, the Rams could have some suspensions or injuries early.
38:51Now, I know the 49ers are also beat up.
38:54But I think, like, getting those, the Cardinals road game, the last game of the year, and the Rams road game in
39:02Australia in week one where weird things happen. And then Seattle has more downside risk this year because just of the lack of flexibility.
39:10The offensive coordinator drop. So, I don't know. At plus money, over three and a half divisional wins.
39:16I'm assuming they're going to get two against the Cardinals.
39:20So, can they just split against the Rams and Seahawks?
39:23I think I might take the plunge. Do you have any thoughts there?
39:28Yeah, that's interesting because I agree. I think, you know, both Cardinals matchups are a win.
39:33If not, this bet's toast. Yes. I think, yeah, they played three divisional games in the first five weeks.
39:40So, I think if you think that they're going to be the healthiest they've ever been at the early part of the
39:48season, I mean, Trent Williams is healthy. He doesn't have a questionable tag next to him, so that's good.
39:54Fred Warner is fully healthy. I don't know if Bosa is going to be 100% by week one.
40:01But Kittle might not be 100%. So, they might be the healthiest.
40:05They'll be all season in the first five weeks, which would make me like this over more.
40:11If, you know, Bosa is going to be limited, Kittle is going to be limited, a little bit less so.
40:18But, yeah, the fact that this is in Australia, a neutral game against the Rams, that might be the game that kind of decides it.
40:26I think that would kind of lead me to invest in the Niners earlier in the season with that.
40:33So, I think that's really the key. The Rams and Seahawks, who both, I think, need to stay healthy, especially at certain positions, were very healthy last year.
40:43The 49ers were not. You mentioned Mac Jones being the best backup.
40:47If Stafford gets hurt, the Rams might be toast.
40:50Yeah. If Darnold gets hurt, the Seahawks might be toast, right?
40:54But if Purdy gets hurt, as the 49ers showed last year, what, they went 5-3 in the eight games that Mac Jones
41:02missed, and they had injuries everywhere else. They're not toast.
41:05And you mentioned the offensive line. Yeah. It's getting, having your, their tackles have to be healthy.
41:11Like, Trent Williams and McKivitz have to be healthy.
41:14Their backups there are maybe the worst in the league.
41:18I mean, you're talking Verdari. They drafted Enrique Cruz.
41:21He's not ready to play in the NFL. Austin Pleasance, like, their depth at tackle is disastrous.
41:27There is a battle at left guard. We'll see if it's, you know, could the rookies in the mix?
41:33Carver Willis, Robert Jones, Connor Colby, who's, I think, like now practicing backup at right guard.
41:39I thought he was going to win it. But, and their center situation still isn't great with an aging Brendel.
41:46But, yeah, their tackles have to be healthy. But the backup situation gives them a higher floor.
41:52And, like, these other teams, if they were without their quarterback, the drop-off is much more significant, which I think gives this bet a little bit more juice.
42:02But I might wait until we get closer to the season, see what's going on with the Rams, and then see how healthy the 49ers are.
42:11Let's move on to the Arizona Cardinals. Won't spend too much time on the Cardinals.
42:16The Mike LaFleur error, guess what, comes from the McVay, Shanahan, Shree, Hackett.
42:21How does Hackett get an OC job? Unbelievable. The Cardinals last year were one of the unluckiest teams in NFL history.
42:28I mean, you look at their average games lost to injury, second highest ever.
42:33They were unlucky on field goals, unlucky on fumbles.
42:36They were 2-8 in one possession games. This is a team early on that could have, that just had, was finding ways to lose.
42:44I mean, they could have been like 4-1 to start the year.
42:49They lose all the coin flips. All the injuries pile up.
42:52And then we get a new coaching staff, Kyler Murray, out the door.
42:57I assume Jacoby Brissett is going to start. This is a team I want to buy because of all of the regression
43:05flags with a win total of 4.5 juice to the under or 3.5 juice to the over.
43:10But here's why I don't like it. Number one, it's the hardest schedule in the league for my numbers.
43:17And they had the hardest schedule in the league last year.
43:21It's tough living when you play in a division with the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams.
43:26And by their non-divisional road games are Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Saints.
43:31Some tough places to play. And on top of that, it's a brutal early season schedule.
43:36They get a late bye in week 14. And this team might end up tanking.
43:42And what I mean by tanking, the players are still going to try.
43:46The coaches are still going to try. But your most winnable games are at the end of the year.
43:53The Jets at home. At the Saints. The Raiders at home.
43:57All after the bye. They could be in tank mode.
44:00What do I mean by that? Well, Sweat gets traded.
44:04Buda Baker gets traded. You know, you're playing Carson Beck at quarterback to see what you have.
44:10So just the personnel decisions might not lead to the best version of this team.
44:15And that's going to happen potentially during a stretch where your most winnable games come.
44:20Hated their draft. I mean, you take Carson Beck in the third round.
44:25You knew you weren't going to win this year.
44:28I mean, improve your roster. Next year, you're going to get your quarterback in a historically good quarterback class.
44:34You draft Love with the first overall pick, a running back.
44:38You already had a deep running back for him.
44:41And then you drafted Besantis, who I like, the guard.
44:45He's out for the year. So, yeah, I mean, there's some upside with this defense if, like, some of the younger pieces
44:52who have just always been hurt, who have shown flashes.
44:56Like, there's some of their secondary. They're really young, like Williams and Burke and Johnson.
45:01You know, Walter Nolan has flashed. You know, and they had just had so many injuries.
45:07But Buda Baker's getting up there. You do lose your free safety and downgrade with Wingard.
45:12You really don't want him on the field for a team that plays a lot of free safety looks.
45:19So, yeah, win total's super low. I tend to lean over with these low win totals.
45:25It's the NFL. Like, you could just play. And look, if the Cardinals have a quarterback injury, it's not going to be a huge drop-off.
45:33But you could just play, like, the Broncos at home and Bo Nix is out.
45:39You play the Lions in week five at home and Jared Goff is out.
45:43Like, you beat the Jets and Raiders at home.
45:47And then, like, there you go. You have four wins.
45:50Like, it's not difficult to get the four wins in the NFL.
45:54But the way that the schedule is structured and the potential for them to just, you know, trade away some of their
46:02key pieces, I'll probably stay away, but it's over or nothing, really, with anyone at a win total this low.
46:09What are your thoughts on the Cardinals? Yeah, I'm right there with you because I wanted to be on the over because
46:17of a lot of things you mentioned. Just they were a bad team last year and were unlucky.
46:23You know, 2-8 in the one-score games. Toughest schedule.
46:26But this year they have the toughest schedule as well.
46:30So, I don't love how they, you know, they paid Brissette, what, $15 million guaranteed this year?
46:35They could have just, you know, let Darger Minch.
46:39Well, yeah, exactly. So, I don't know what they're doing.
46:42I do agree. The end of the season they could be sneaky.
46:46Like, Carson and Bex look good. They have a bunch of easy games at the end of the season.
46:53They have their buys week 14. I think the market that, you know, makes the most sense kind of goes with what you were saying.
47:02Their first six weeks, it's absolutely brutal. Toughest first six-week stretch in the NFL, according to my strength of schedule.
47:09DraftKings is offering last winless team market where they're favored.
47:12But it's plus 225. And I think, you know, week four at New York might be their best bet to kill this bet.
47:20But other than that, I mean, if they lose at the Giants, I mean, they play the Lions, and then they go at Rams, then Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks.
47:30So, if they don't win this Giants game, they might start, you know, 0-8, 0-9.
47:35So, I think I'll take, you know, last winless team for them.
47:39And then maybe at the, you know, maybe I'll be taking them against the spread.
47:45But maybe at the end of the season, they make a late run and end up winning, you know, four or five games.
47:53But I think kind of investing against them early on makes the most sense.
47:58The only other team in this market that does worry me is the Dolphins at plus 400 because they have a week six buy.
48:06So, technically, the Dolphins can't get a win in week six.
48:10Whereas, you know, the Cardinals, they don't have their buy-troll week 14.
48:14Well, the Cardinals are at the Rams week six.
48:17Essentially, yeah. Doesn't really help the Dolphins side of that bet, but point taken.
48:22Yeah, I mean, if I look at their first 11, the first 11 weeks, and they have a buy week eight.
48:29So, it's not like they have a buy week 14.
48:33Their first 11 weeks, I had them projected as an underdog of at least a touchdown in nine of the 10 games.
48:40And at the Giants, like plus four and a half.
48:44I mean, I'm looking at some of these spreads.
48:47Like, even after the buy, like after the buy week at week eight, at Seattle, home against the Rams, at the Chiefs.
48:55I mean. Yeah. I mean, the Dolphins, the Dolphins get the Raiders, the Vikings, the Jets.
49:00Yeah, and the Dolphins week one, weird things happen in week one.
49:05Like, we saw the Raiders last year win at New England.
49:08But, like, so, like, but it's much more realistic that the Dolphins get a win week one against the Raiders than Arizona does at the Chargers.
49:17So, yeah, I do like that. Yeah, lean over, but just the way that the schedule's structured, no thanks.
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54:15DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, let's move on to the NFC South, the worst division in the NFL.
54:22The Tampa Bay Bucs are the favorites, and one of the things that sticks out to me with this division is going
54:29into the year, I was like, this is the worst division in the NFL, and everyone or most of the teams have gotten worse because of injuries.
54:39All these teams have had key injuries to potential primary contributors this season.
54:43For what it's worth, at DraftKings, the Bucs are plus 170, the Saints are plus 270, the Panthers are plus 310, and the Falcons are 4-1.
54:52Let's start with the favorites in the Tampa Bay Bucs, who finished last year 8-9, played a ton of close games, were fortunate early, not so much late.
55:02They bring in another offensive coordinator, this time Zach Robinson from the Falcons.
55:07You're going to see a lot more outside zone.
55:10Although for what it's worth, Bucky Irving hasn't been great.
55:13You would think he'd be better, but it hasn't been great running outside zone.
55:18But under Zach Robinson over the past two years, over 50% outside zone.
55:23He's a McVay guy. No other team has been over 40 over the past two years, and Robinson's been over 50%.
55:30And they could not run the ball last year.
55:33We'll see if they can this year. They did have a ton of injuries along the offensive line, and really, across the
55:41entire offense, I don't think Mayfield was fully healthy.
55:44So better health should lead to better results on that offense.
55:48Mike Evans is out. Although you still really like the wide receiver room, and mainly because, like, I mean, look, you still have Godwin.
55:56You still have Higbuka, McMillan, Potten. And I'm really high.
56:00I don't know of your thoughts. I'm really high on Mr.
56:04Ted Hurst. He's just a freak, man. He's got size and speed.
56:08He didn't really get a lot of attention for where he played in college.
56:13But I think he can flash as a rookie.
56:16Defensively, it's really going to come down. They're going to blitz a lot under Bowles.
56:21They do lose their top cover corner. It's really going to come down to how this cornerback room shakes out.
56:28Jacob Parrish might get the outside corner job, or is it Morrison, who's always dealt with injuries?
56:34Zion McCollum is going to be on the outside on the other side.
56:38But can Keontae Scott, the rookie, take over that nickel spot?
56:42Really good blitzer, so you would think fits well with a bowl scheme.
56:47But how does that cornerback rotation shake out? And can they make do without Jamel Dean no longer here?
56:53Bucs' win total is sitting at eight and a half, juice to the under.
56:58And look, all these other teams in the division have had major injuries, even some suspensions.
57:04So the Bucs, they have benefited from all the news throughout the rest of the division.
57:10They have the best quarterback in the division. What are your thoughts on the Bucs heading into this year?
57:16Yeah, I'm right around there. I have their expected wins, right around 8.4.
57:21And I'm not too worried about the offense. I think Baker was clearly playing at less than 100% last year.
57:28He played all 17 games, but I think 16 of those games he was on the injury report with multiple body parts.
57:35He just didn't look right. So I think he bounces back this year.
57:40Wide receiver room, you know, they lost Mike Evans, but I agree.
57:44I think with Ibuka, if Chris Godwin's healthy, I like McMillan.
57:48I like Hurst. Hurst kind of reminds me of Michael Wilson from the Cardinals.
57:53I think he's going to be solid. They always do an excellent job, I think, drafting wide receiver.
57:59The offensive line was a disaster. You know, Hurst missed, what, five games last year.
58:04So if they're healthy, they're a top 10, top five unit.
58:08Not too worried about the offense. The defense, though, is kind of a crapshoot.
58:13I was kind of shocked that Ruben Bain fell to them.
58:17I don't know what happened there. I think he's going to be a beast this year.
58:23They just say he has short arms, but he's a dog.
58:26I like him, I like him, and they needed help off the edge.
58:31They addressed a primary need with value. I love that pick.
58:35I really like their draft across the board. I mean, you could have – Trotter can't cover you or me, but I
58:42like – like if you look at their draft board, I mean, Scott could start at nickel at some point.
58:49I love Hurst. Trotter's going to play at linebacker, and Bain is going to start and contribute right away.
58:56So, yeah, they – this rookie class is going to contribute right off the bat.
59:01Yeah, and they were able to keep Vea for – you know, they signed the one-year deal.
59:07That was huge because he was, you know, one foot out the door.
59:12The linebacking room is a question mark. You know, they have Anzalone, Roseboom, Trotter.
59:17I think, you know, they're going to continue to be good against the run, but against the pass, I think they're going to be a pass-funnel defense.
59:26And then you look at who they face week one, it's the Bengals.
59:31So, that's – I think week one, that's a brutal matchup for them.
59:35I'll be looking probably the Bengals there. But, yeah, a lot of question marks on defense.
59:41At least, you know, the safety room is solid with, you know, Winfield and Smith there.
59:46But a lot of question marks, you know, how they're going to be this year.
59:52You know, they were dead last in red zone touchdown rate allowed.
59:56So, you would think just regression alone, they would allow fewer points this year.
60:01But it's really hard to really invest in this defense.
60:04But I do think the offense bounces back this year.
60:08So, maybe overs. Overs early in the season. Overson might be the play with them.
60:13But right in line with their win total being a shade below eight and a half right now.
60:19Yeah, the one – I guess the one – I'll say a positive and a negative about the schedule.
60:26And I agree with you on the secondary. They also get Canty back from injury.
60:31I think Keontae Scott is, like, the key to this team.
60:35Because if he – as a rookie, if he can play nickel and man that spot, then Parrish flashed as a rookie.
60:43Morrison has a ton of talent. He's just never – he hasn't really been healthy in his young career.
60:49And he's only 22. But if, like, Scott can come in and play nickel, and then they can just find the right
60:57second corner between Morrison and Parrish, and then McCollum is just okay, that's what's going to make or break.
61:04Like, that's what's going to allow them to either hit their ceiling or not is this cornerback room.
61:10Because they in the middle, it's just – they're going to be a good run defense.
61:15But, yeah, the coverage group is definitely the question there.
61:19But in regards to the schedule, you mentioned that Cincy not a great matchup early.
61:24And this is, like, the one time you have to – although Cincy always starts, like, 0-3.
61:30But this is, like, the one time Burrow is actually not banged up.
61:35But then you get Cleveland, Minnesota, and Green Bay at home.
61:38Three teams that play up north. And those home Florida games are more valuable in September with the humidity.
61:45So those three back-to-back games against those opponents could work in your favor.
61:50But I did mention the – all the news which we're about to go through for the other teams that have been detrimental.
61:58And, unfortunately, you know, you have what most – you know, three of your division games come in the last four weeks.
62:05And you have none in the first six weeks.
62:08So maybe you don't benefit as much from a divisional race perspective in some of those games from some of the news that we're about to get to.
62:18But the Bucs would be my pick to win the division, you know, close to one.
62:24Just because I've soured on a lot of these other teams, which we're going to get to now.
62:30Well, I'll give you dealer's choice. Who do you want to talk about next?
62:35Falcons, Saints, or Panthers? Let's go Falcons. All right, Falcons win total, six and a half juiced to the over or seven
62:43and a half juiced to the under. Last year finished eight and nine.
62:47By the end of the year, I had them power rated as the – not by much, but the power rated as the top team in the division.
62:57They really came on in the second half of the year.
63:01And I was like, I'm going to – I think I'm going to buy this team to win the division.
63:08But everything that has happened is – and by the way, like they bring in Stefanski, who's a professional coach.
63:15They're going to – and like they're going to fix like the little things that the Falcons always got wrong.
63:22They would always lose every single coin flip game late.
63:25Their late game execution, their in-game management, their special teams were a disaster.
63:30Like just fixing those little things can take this team up a win or two, which is probably all they needed to win the division.
63:39But, I mean, last year – the biggest thing that the Falcons did last year was they improved their pressure rate.
63:46The defense could finally get pressure. It had been plaguing them for years.
63:50And last year they had the second highest adjusted sack rate.
63:54They went up 31 sacks from 2024 to a franchise record 57 sacks.
63:59So, who was driving those pressures in sacks? Well, Pierce, Floyd, Aurora, Ellis, Walker.
64:04Those are their top five impressions. They're all gone.
64:07You had Walker who got hurt. Killer loss. He's out for the year.
64:11Pierce suspended the first eight games. And they really lost seven of their first top eight guys in pressure.
64:18They lose Ibequete and Onyamada. I think those are big losses.
64:22So, like this defense got significantly worse from a talent perspective.
64:26Billy Bowman, who's shown some promise. I'm not sure if he can hold up fully as a full-time nickel, but he's injured on the pup list right now.
64:35Maybe their rookie, Avion Terrell, can take that role.
64:39But as of right now, it's Darnay Holmes, which is not good.
64:43So, like, where did this defense – this defense got significantly worse.
64:47And just I fear that they might revert back to the old lack of pressure defenses that we've become accustomed to seeing in Atlanta.
64:55And then you have questions on the offense. You have talent like what pits and the best running back in the NFL and Bijon and Drake London.
65:05But there are questions at quarterback. You have Michael Penix, who is just ramping up off another injury.
65:11And he still has questions with accuracy, touch in the intermediary range.
65:15You bring in Tua, who basically lost a one-man quarterback job this summer.
65:20So there are questions at quarterback because the Cousins was their best quarterback last year.
65:25So, yeah, right tackle is still not going to be great for them with one of the Chiefs' cast-offs.
65:32I wanted to buy them, but this defensive – the defensive news and the defensive losses, I think, just might be too much to overcome.
65:40But I am expecting an improvement in special teams, which will definitely help new kicker, new special teams coordinator.
65:47And they might fix some of those little things.
65:50One of the ways – curious to get your thoughts, but one of the things I was thinking about potentially attacking the
65:58Falcons, and their schedule gets harder this year, is their schedule is brutal early.
66:03Seven of the first ten against projected playoff teams.
66:06The three that aren't, at Pitt to start the year.
66:09Carolina at home. You better get that week, too.
66:13And then at New Orleans for the Katrina anniversary on Monday Night Football.
66:17I mean, that is a brutal ten-game stretch. And you have some injury questions going into the year.
66:23You have one of your better defensive players suspended for the first eight games.
66:28So if Pennix looks okay, because their last three games are all in division, and their schedule does lighten up the second half of the year.
66:37So if Pennix does look okay, showing improvement in this offensive scheme, the special teams looks better, and they get off to
66:45a rough start, but aren't too far out of the division race, they might be worth a look as like a flyer
66:53to win the division halfway through the year. In a division where it's not going to take a ton of wins to win.
67:01What are your thoughts on the Falcons? Yeah, I like that look.
67:05And I would assume that Tua is starting some of those early season games.
67:10I know Pennix, he returned to practice, where the window to play week one for him is certainly open still, but just a couple weeks away.
67:19So I don't know if they want to rush him.
67:22But if Tua is starting, this is an unserious team.
67:26He's done. He watched. Yeah. He has some side with Pennix.
67:30He's only started, what, 16 games. We know that Tua is done now.
67:34Yeah, yeah. Tua is done. And the defense, oh my God.
67:38Like Pierce and Walker being out is massive. Like you said, Ellis is gone, staying in the division.
67:44They just signed Zedarius Smith to potentially stop the bleeding, but he retired after, what, five games last year?
67:51He's 34. Yeah. This defense is definitely shaky. Quarterback situation shaky.
67:55When it comes to the quarterback situation, it's kind of a joke right now, but what are your thoughts?
68:01Stand up? Yeah. What are your thoughts on that?
68:05Because, I mean, when I'm talking about him, it's...
68:08Yeah. Like, what are your thoughts on it? Because I think people just dismiss him because he went so late.
68:15And, you know, he was a D2 player. But from what I could tell, this guy's got it.
68:21And I don't think the Falcons are going to give him a shot, especially early in the season.
68:27But, I mean, stranger things have happened. And this QB situation is shaky enough.
68:32I don't know. Could he potentially make starts at some point this year?
68:37Or am I just crazy? Crazy. You're supposed to tell me.
68:41I'm the college guy, but not the D2 college guy.
68:44Well... And you're the preseason guy. And for those not...
68:48For those out of the loop, we're talking about Jack Strand, their third quarterback, who's flashed in the preseason and looked incredible.
68:55He was an undrafted free agent, rookie, this year.
68:58He played at D2, and he was an All-American, where he was obviously electric, but it was D2.
69:05It's like going from D2 to the NFL is a...
69:08In one season, it's an enormous step up. But I've only seen, like, clips.
69:13I haven't been watching preseason like you. But I've seen a little bit of him.
69:18And he looks the part. But, again, it's preseason.
69:21But you think that there's something real there. Yeah, well, the first week, week one of the preseason, I wrote up second half over.
69:30I was all excited. I knew Strand was probably going to play the entire second half.
69:35So I had, you know, 500 words on Strand and why I like the over.
69:41And he, you know, looked overwhelmed. Didn't really set him up for success either.
69:46You know, they were running it on first down, passing in obvious situations.
69:50He didn't look great. And then, you know... He also was playing with him.
69:55The Falcons have no wide receiver depth, right? So he was probably not playing.
70:00True, yeah. They had nothing. But last week, he looked like the best QB of the preseason.
70:06And I kind of underestimated his rushing ability, too.
70:09I mean, the guy's a monster. But, I mean, he looks like Josh Allen out there at times.
70:15And from what I've heard, like, he was a multi-sport athlete, threw a couple perfect games, played basketball.
70:21And from what I've read, like, he could have taken, you know, NIL, like a D1 offer, but he wanted to ride it out with his buddies.
70:31So he's loyal. And, you know, scouts, people that notice him, you know, obviously D2, it's hard to evaluate, but they were
70:39just like, he has all the tools to be an NFL quarterback.
70:43He just needs reps. So I think this week it's going to be important to kind of see, you know, what they,
70:50how much they play him, how he looks again.
70:54But, I mean, a couple of years down the road, it wouldn't shock me if he's starting somewhere.
71:00But, yeah, he looked excellent this week, completely different than week one.
71:04So that's why I'm, like, when I'm talking about him, it's, you know, 40%, I'm probably 40% joking.
71:10But he's on the Falcons. So, you know, Tua, no business trotting Tua out there.
71:16You have to completely. Well, Tua, if he's a driver out there, he gets one more concussion, he's done.
71:22Penix has a season-ending injury every single year. So, like, we'll talk about a room with, even though you have two quarterbacks
71:30out of you, a room with major injury risk.
71:33Yeah. What about, here's the thing, we're about to talk about the Saints.
71:38One of the players who was getting a ton of love for Offensive Rookie of the Year was Jordan Tyson.
71:45Yeah. And that's obviously now out the window. Would, is there any, I don't even think he'd be lined, but Jack Strand, Offensive Rookie of the Year.
71:54My other thought is, what about, like, 100-1 on Ted Hurst?
71:58Your Hurst is probably more realistic than Strand. I mean, what they would have to.
72:03If you found one, he'd probably be like, what, 1,000-1?
72:07He better be. Yeah, he would have to at least be that for me to consider it.
72:13I mean, this is the pipe dream. Here's the way it goes.
72:17I just talked about their schedule softens up in the second half of the year.
72:22They're going to get some guys, you know, they'll get Pierce back from suspension.
72:27It's a new staff, new scheme. So, like, there's a world where they, like, peak in the second half, but their quarterbacks are hurt.
72:35Strand takes over, lives up to his potential, and they win the division.
72:40Doesn't he win Offensive Rookie of the Year? Yeah.
72:43He would only need to start a handful of games to even consider.
72:47Like, if you, they don't have his odds right now.
72:51Yeah, I could ask him. But, like, Carson Beck is 28-1.
72:55And you would kind of assume that Beck might start, you know, the last handful of games.
73:01That could be Strand's path. But Love's kind of banged up heading in.
73:05He should be the clear favorite. But there's nobody that, like, screams at me where, yes, I would need, like, 500-1 odds to entertain it.
73:14But crazier things have happened. The situation is kind of sitting right there for him.
73:19And Penix, this is third torn ACL, right? At least three, I think.
73:24So, I mean, I don't know if he's going to be able to stay healthy.
73:29I know Matt Ryan loves Strand. It would be like a pizza shot.
73:34It would be like a pizza shot. Like 500-1, put, like, you know, $25, $50 on it just for shit.
73:41Have some fun. That's why I don't know. I was working at the Offensive Rookie of the Year board, and I was
73:48like, especially, like, after some of the injuries to rookies, I was like, this is underwhelming at the top.
73:55So, it could be a year where you have – That's why I was like, maybe Ted Hurst.
74:01Yeah, I love that. He's kind of dealing with an injury.
74:05Hurst is 80-1. Everyone gets hurt, and all of a sudden, he's, like, emerges as your one on the outside.
74:12Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, Tate's run, what, 40 routes and hasn't even caught a pass.
74:18I don't love Price. Don't, you know, love clear favorite, but still, anything can happen.
74:23So, yeah, I think Hurst is probably a realistic long shot there.
74:27Tyson's 40-1 right now. I don't know how, but just – there's a path for – just take a long shot.
74:34Could be anybody. But I think when it comes to, like, season-long bets, I don't like tying up a lot in coin flip markets.
74:43I think if I'm going to tie up money, it's usually going to be long shots, something with a high ceiling.
74:50So, yeah, I think there's some paths here in offensive rookie of the year in this division that I think makes sense.
74:58The long shots that make sense, super long shot lottery ticket would be Strand if it was offered.
75:04But Ted Hurst was a guy that stuck out to me.
75:08And then, I don't know, what would be the odds that – what are the – how would you price the odds that Stafford gets hurt?
75:17Because if you're taking, like, 75-1 on Simpson, it's like, all right, well, he comes in early if 38-year-old Stafford gets hurt,
75:25and then he has the best roster in the NFL, and they win 13 games, and he just runs the easy-button McVay
75:32offense, he's probably going to win rookie of the year.
75:36But you're basically just pricing the odds of a serious Stafford injury within, like, the first half of the season, maybe even sooner.
75:44But I don't know. How would you price that?
75:47Yeah, it's hard to do. Like, it's more of an art than a science.
75:52But I would say it's 50-50 chance that Stafford misses over one-and-a-half games due to injury.
75:57Obviously, Stafford's also a pocket passer. He's not really taking that many shots if the offensive line holds up, so that kind of helps.
76:06He's older. That hurts. He had the back issue last year.
76:10Didn't really become an issue during the regular season or the playoffs.
76:14So, and he's played through significant injuries. So, will he get injured?
76:18Probably at some point this year. Will he miss a ton of time?
76:23Probably not. I think the odds of Stafford missing, like, five-plus games would be 10% to 15%.
76:28And then what about half the second half of the season?
76:32You mean missing eight-plus games? Yeah. But it has to be, like, it would have to be the second half of the season.
76:40Right? Like, he has a season-ending injury within the first half of the season.
76:45Right. Yeah, yeah. So, that gives, like, 10%. I mean, it's – yeah, it would have to be early on.
76:52Probably, you know, in the 5% to 10% range.
76:55Yeah. You had to slap a number on it.
76:58So, what are Simpson's odds? 60-70 to 1. I mean, obviously, just because that happens doesn't mean he's guaranteed to win it.
77:06Exactly. But that would be one that maybe you'd toss something on.
77:10Yeah, they're sort of like a pass. And you want to bet that during the regular season, like, after it happens.
77:18Obviously, these odds would adjust, but if you're quick with it.
77:22All right. Let's move on to the New Orleans Saints.
77:25Their win total is sitting at 7.5, just to the under.
77:29Last year, they finished 6-11. There is some excitement about the Saints coming into the year.
77:34Their roster is still, you know, just – they're getting there, but it's just been broken.
77:40They needed a full reset. Like, they're still old in a couple of positions, and they're just slowly churning the roster into a younger, more viable competitor.
77:49I like some of the things that Brandon Staley did on defense last year.
77:54Ran a lot more base than I was expecting.
77:57Single high, zone heavy. He's kind of learned some things over the years, and I've liked some of the adjustments that he's made.
78:06I also liked some of the things that they did on offense last year with Kellen Moore.
78:11This really comes down to – and look, I was like, all right, I can see the vision here for Saints to
78:19win the division, take the next step this year.
78:22You saw a lot of excitement with Tyler Shuck at the end of the season.
78:28Second year of this staff and new schemes. They draft Jordan Tyson, really exciting wide receiver, but then he gets hurt.
78:35So who's going to step up there? Still TBD.
78:38I think what this really comes down to is, what do you think of Tyler Shuck?
78:44Some of his numbers were promising, right? Top 12 in adjusted accuracy.
78:48Top 12 in turnover play rate, so he wasn't turning it over.
78:52Was accurate. But wasn't very accurate deep. Was taking those shots, but there was a little bit more there to be desired.
79:00And he had a high sack rate. But he flashed, and you could see, okay, this looks pretty good.
79:06But the rebuttal is the sample size wasn't large, and who did he play?
79:11He played Atlanta twice and lost both. And then he played Miami, Tampa, Carolina, the Jets, and the Titans.
79:18That was their post-by schedule. So yeah, the Saints looked a lot better, and their defense looked good down the stretch, but the schedule was laughable.
79:27Now, the schedule's easy again this year. The Tyson injury hurts.
79:31The offensive line, if they stay healthy, they add Edwards, who I think is an upgraded guard.
79:37They stay, I think they hit on Banks at left tackle last year in the draft.
79:42The defense is still a little old in a number of different positions.
79:47We'll see if, and we're going to see right away.
79:50Again, I talk about the nickel position a lot.
79:53It looks like they're going to go with Jonas Sanker as their big nickel.
79:58And guess what his test is? Week one, I'm on raw.
80:02And the question is, can he hold up in coverage?
80:06We know he can defend the run, and he's a thumper, but can you have him out there with Riley and McKinstry
80:13on the outside after he lost Elante Taylor, who mainly played in that nickel role this year?
80:19I think it's interesting. There's some upside there, but we'll see if he can handle that job.
80:25What are your thoughts on the Saints this season?
80:28Yeah, I project them closer to 8.2 wins, so I'm interested.
80:32I think a lot of that's due to their easy schedule.
80:36I have the second easiest schedule for them, but it all comes down to Shuck, and it's interesting.
80:42You mentioned he had the easy schedule at the end of the year, but if you look at who he was throwing
80:50it to after they traded away Rashid Shahid, I mean, he had Devon Vele, who's still there, but he was thrown to
80:58Mason Tipton, Calvin Austin Jr., and Dante Pettis. And Kamara was hurt.
81:02Kamara was washed, and he was hurt last year.
81:05And then he's handing it off to Devin Neal, Audrick Estime, and Evan Hull.
81:10So I think bringing in Travis Etienne, or A-chan, should help the run game.
81:15I love the Tyson pick was going to help boost their number two high receiver, but he's hurt, and I'm just worried
81:22he's not going to make it through the season.
81:26Even once he returns, you know, the odds of a re-injury are pretty high with him, so I'm worried that, you know,
81:33it'll just be Alave and a bunch of dudes.
81:36And Alave played... Can Alave stay healthy is the question, because then...
81:41Yeah. I mean, if that's the case, there's definitely higher injury risk with Alave.
81:46And you lose Tyson. We just talked about the receivers they were throwing to.
81:50Now you're down to Vele, and then who... I don't even know who's going to be the third receiver with...
81:57I mean, Tipton's hurt right now. It's either going to be Barion Brown or Bryce Lance, I think, are fighting for that role.
82:05Yeah, I think Lance has the edge right now, but again, it's not inspiring.
82:10Um, they have... They still have Kevin Austin, who usually ends up having a role one or another on this team.
82:18Uh, but yeah, it's... It's Barion, so it just puts a lot of pressure on Alave to stay healthy, which you don't want.
82:26And he... Alave went down at practice yesterday. I don't know what's up with him.
82:31Um, I haven't seen any reports. It was an undisclosed injury, but he left practice, so that's not good.
82:38So it's just, you know, they have a low floor right now, um, with Tyson out.
82:43So, not really a team I'm looking to invest in.
82:47Um, I do think they'll be better this year.
82:50They, you know, they were, what, dead last in red zone touchdown percentage.
82:54Also, dead last in field goal percentage. They just brought in Daniel Carlson, so hopefully he...
83:00Yeah. Yeah, hopefully he helps with that. But, I mean, they should score more this year.
83:05They should play with the lead more. They actually, uh, had the lowest, um, time in possession with the lead last year, if you could believe it.
83:15Um, and I think they wanted to be a little bit more run heavy than they were.
83:21Take some of the pressure off Shook. So, I'm actually looking at, like, you know, Shook's under 300 and 450, uh, passing yards.
83:29Because that kind of correlates with, you know, if they are better, they're playing with the lead more.
83:35They have Travis Etienne. They can, you know, run more.
83:39Be a little bit more balanced. And also, factoring in the risk of Tyson's probably cooked for the first half of the season.
83:47And if Olave misses time, you know, that's a disaster.
83:50So, there's kind of, like, multiple outs for Shook's under to hit.
83:54Um, plus, I was kind of impressed with Shook's, uh, rushing upside.
83:59Yeah. Last year, uh, especially, like, in the red zone.
84:02You know, they're moving on from Taysom Hill. But I think he could be a weapon himself in the red zone.
84:09They don't need to be too gimmicky there. So, I think, you know, they should be much better in the red zone.
84:17They can use his rushing upside a bit more this year.
84:21So, um, you know, this offense I am high on, considering the limitations at wide receiver.
84:26But, uh, I think kind of fading Shook's passing yards kind of, you know, welcomes both routes, uh, for that to hit.
84:34So, uh, that's kind of where I'm seeing. But I am projecting them, uh, you know, showing us the value over seven
84:42and a half wins, especially at minus 120. Yeah, DraftKings over seven and a half minus 120.
84:48If you can find plus money out there, that would be my biggest edge of any win total in the division.
84:55And you mentioned the schedule. You're in an easy division.
84:59And we just talked about all the issues with the Falcons.
85:02We'll talk about the Panthers next. You have an easy division.
85:06Plus, you get Vegas, Cleveland, and Arizona. So, like, that gives you a pretty high floor.
85:12Um, so you're probably going to start 0-2 at Detroit, at Baltimore.
85:16Not a great start. So, they might be a team.
85:20This is a division where, like, throughout the year, how these schedules break and the ebbs and flows, I'll be looking to
85:27potentially bet some of these teams at certain points.
85:30Like, the Falcons, if they're way behind, is a super long shot.
85:35Maybe the Saints after two weeks. Um, but let's move on and close things out with the Carolina Panthers.
85:41Win total, six and a half juice to the over or seven and a half juice to the under.
85:48They finished eight and nine last year and somehow won this division.
85:52If you look at their wins last year, I mean, they went seven and three in one possession games.
85:59They beat Atlanta when, and I don't know what Atlanta was doing that week.
86:04They beat Miami. Crazy comeback by three. Dallas by three when their entire offensive line was out.
86:09The Jets by seven. The Packers by three when Green Bay didn't punt.
86:14Atlanta in overtime by three. The Rams by three.
86:17The Bucs by three. Are you getting the picture here?
86:21They won six games by a field goal and then one by seven over the Jets.
86:26And then they had one blowout of Atlanta. So, I mean, this team easily could have won five games last year.
86:34I do like some of the things they're doing from a roster management and roster building perspective.
86:40Like on defense, bringing in Jalen Phillips. They need pass rush help.
86:44Now, it does help hurt that Nick Scuritan got hurt.
86:47I think like with Phillips and Scuritan, they were going to get some more juice here because guess what?
86:54They finished dead last in pressure rate again last year.
86:57That's three years in a row. They can't cover tight ends and they cannot get pressure.
87:03Those have been consistent issues. But, you know, they went out.
87:07They get Phillips. They add Devin Lloyd to improve the linebacker room.
87:11They draft Monroe Freeling. And I think that this defense just is headed in the right direction.
87:17I like Evero as a coordinator. There's a chance that I talk about the nickel role.
87:22There's been rumblings. This is how important the nickel role is in the NFL.
87:27The Panthers' number one corner, J.C. Horn, has been rumblings.
87:31He might play nickel this year. In order for that to happen, because Smith Wade isn't any good.
87:37In order for that to happen, it's more likely than not.
87:41It's not going to happen. But they've been flirting with it.
87:45They're probably going to need their rookie lead to hit an outside corner.
87:49And if that's the case, the cornerback room would take a big step up.
87:54But you're asking a rookie corner to take over on the outside.
87:58That is far from a given. But I thought I'd throw that out there.
88:03But the news just hasn't been great for Carolina.
88:06You meant that you lose Scuriton. Both of your tackles are out in Moton and Iquano.
88:12Don't know when either are going to come back.
88:15You did sign Walker, who will take over one.
88:18You're probably going to need a rookie Freeling to start from day one and be pretty good.
88:24Bryce Young, still very limited. Did the wide receiver room look like it was potentially going to get an upgrade with Chris Brazel?
88:32He's now done. So that hurts. And also, like I mentioned, their close game luck.
88:38They were also 27 of 40 on fourth downs last year.
88:41It was an offense that just, I think, remains very limited.
88:45They were very slow last year, but they still lack play action and motion.
88:50You're going to have Canales give up play calling as well.
88:54So we'll see how that works out. But I like the way the defense is trending.
89:00They're also unlucky on late downs. I think they're trending in the right direction, but I still think they're a quarterback away.
89:07So, like, I think the best case scenario for the Panthers, which I think are building this roster the right way, I
89:15think the best case scenario is they have a very unlucky and bad, bad year and decide we need a quarterback in a historically good quarterback draft.
89:24And they get their quarterback of the future in the draft next year.
89:29And then this could be a team on the rise, given a lot of their young talent elsewhere.
89:35What are you seeing with the Panthers this year?
89:38Yeah, kind of piggyback on what you're saying. I think just Bryce Young hasn't really taken that leap you'd expect from a number one overall pick.
89:47And I think Canales knows that because he was calling plays last year.
89:52You could tell he was protecting him. They had the fourth lowest pass rate over expected.
89:57Bryce Young only attempted 9% of his passes downfield, which is the fourth lowest.
90:02So they're just shielding him and just, you know, leaning on the run game.
90:07Hopefully the defense is better this year, which I think it should be.
90:12But, you know, I just think this is going to be a lower scoring conservative offense.
90:17And like you said, both tackles are out indefinitely.
90:21I don't know. That's a good tackle duo. Yeah, yeah.
90:24So, and, you know, Freeling's going to start. So that, you know, that was a good first round pick in terms of timing for them.
90:33But, yeah, Brazzles out. But I still like – And I think the hope was that – you mentioned the lack of explosiveness.
90:41Yeah. The hope was that Brazzles is that big downfield threat.
90:45Yeah. Great speed, great size. Like he could have not only been that potential explosive unlock, but also opened some other things up.
90:53So now you're back to just like you need, what, Coker and Leggett to take that next step.
90:59And the offense is probably just going to look like a lot of the same.
91:04Well, I mean, they brought in Waller. So the six or seven games he's healthy this year, I think that'll give them some pop.
91:13From the tight end room where, you know, the Panthers, it's been, what, since Greg Olson?
91:18They really haven't had a good pass-catching tight end.
91:21So, I mean, anything they can get from Waller I think will help.
91:26But, again, you just can't bank on him to play 17 games.
91:30And Brooks, like, you know, Hubbard's banged up right now.
91:34I think if Brooks is healthy, I've always been high on him.
91:38I don't know how he's going to look after back-to-back ACL tears.
91:42But, I mean, he could be good. And this is, you know, solid running team or something like that.
91:49But it's just the strength of schedule, too. I need to pull this up.
91:53But they have a tougher schedule than you'd expect in this division.
91:58I have them the fourth toughest schedule. Yeah, I'm at seven.
92:01So, yeah, they have a tough schedule. Yeah, definitely tougher than last year.
92:06And as you mentioned, they were seven and three in close games.
92:10Definitely were closer to a five-win team. They actually played with the lead at the fifth lowest rate.
92:16So, you know, a lot of their wins, their close wins were just, you know, late comebacks.
92:22So you can't really bank on that, especially with Bryce Young.
92:26So this is a team with a really low floor.
92:30Even in this division, I still think they have a low floor.
92:34So I have them closer to 6.8 wins. And that's really not even factoring some of the more recent injuries.
92:41So, you know, under seven and a half, right around, you know, minus 135, I definitely can get behind that.
92:48I think that's definitely my favorite win total bet of the division.
92:52Probably wouldn't touch six and a half. But I think if you get under seven and a half, right around minus 135, that's probably what I'd go with.
93:02Yeah, don't disagree. I mean, you mentioned the tough schedule.
93:05The division is a crapshoot. But listen to, like, they're non-divisional road games.
93:10Tough places to play. Pitt, Minnie, Green Bay, Philly, Cleveland.
93:13Yeah. Home games versus outside of the division. Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago, Denver, Cincy, and Seattle.
93:19All favored to make the playoffs. Those are your six non-divisional home games.
93:23That's what they get for finishing first last year, right?
93:27That is the punishment that they get. And then the Saints, much easier.
93:31The Saints have a bottom five schedule. Yep. For finishing and last in the division.
93:36That'll do it for the NFC South and NFC West.
93:40Before we get out of here, one final order of business.
93:44Our favorite bet from the NFC West or South, sponsored by DraftKings.
93:48Colonel, what do you got? Yeah, I'm going to go with the Panthers under seven and a half wins.
93:55You know, Bryce Young still really hasn't making that leap I wanted to see from him for being, you know, first overall pick.
94:03They're already dealing with injuries. You know, both tackles are going to miss the first handful of games at least.
94:10They just lost, you know, their third round pick, Chris Brazel.
94:13I thought he was going to be a downfield threat for them.
94:18And for finishing first in the division last year, they've been gifted the fourth toughest schedule in the league.
94:24So give me the Panthers fade. I'm going with under seven and a half wins here.
94:30I'm going to go with the Bucs. I don't mind that at all.
94:34I'm going to go with the Bucs to win the division.
94:38I just want that in my portfolio. They have the best quarterback in the division, who's now presumably going to be healthy.
94:46I like, loved their draft class, which addressed some of the glaring needs on the team.
94:51And all of the news that has come out over the past month or two has made me sour on the Panthers,
94:59sour on the Falcons, sour on the Saints. When you look at injuries and suspensions, all of these teams in this division have taken hits.
95:08Who's going to potentially benefit from that? It's the Bucs.
95:11Todd Bowles, coaching for his job. Baker Mayfield, contract year.
95:15Should be healthier. The team should be healthier overall.
95:18Special teams should be better as well. So give me Tampa to win the division.
95:23All right. You can tail these plays today. Or you might want to wait until September 2nd, because DraftKings has something big
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95:44The crown is yours. All right. Thank you for listening to the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings.
95:50Thanks to none other than Sean Kerner for following me.
95:53Make sure you follow all of his bets in the award-winning Action Network app.
95:58Thanks to our producer, David. Most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in.
96:03Check out the AFC episodes that are already out.
96:07Final episode with the remaining two NFC divisions will come out tomorrow with myself and Brandon Anderson.
96:12Before you know it, the season will be here.
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96:21Leave a five-star review really helps us out this time of year.
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