UFC Fight Night Betting Preview | Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong
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50 min
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Aug 28, 2026
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Fri, August 28, 2026
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2:16The Action Network Podcast. Podcast. Podcast. If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these people over in a second.
2:22Oh! Welcome to the Action Network Podcast UFC Betting Preview.
2:25I'm your host, Billy Ward. joined today and for the next few weeks by Dan Tom.
2:30We saw him a couple weeks ago. He will be back for a little bit.
2:34Sean Zerillo is alright. We'll have him back at some point, but for now, we've got Dan joining us for UFC Shanghai.
2:4013 fight card for now, barring any weigh-in issues.
2:433 a.m. prelims if you're in the Eastern Time Zone.
2:466 a.m. main card at Shanghai Indoor Stadium. Dan, are you staying up for this one, or are you getting up for this one in Pacific Time Zone?
2:54I believe starting midnight for you, if my math is correct there.
2:57Oh, yeah. Midnight's when I start to get going.
3:00I'm a late bird over here, so yeah, totally.
3:03I'm just going to be staying up and fueling my already problematic sleep schedule, Billy.
3:07There we go. Yeah, it's tougher in the Eastern Time Zone.
3:10I don't think I can make it all the way through until effectively noon on Saturday for me, so I will be
3:16catching a couple hours of sleep, then getting up.
3:19The main event, as we expect when they're on the road in these countries we don't go to all the time, features Chinese fighter Song Yudong.
3:27Pretty heavy underdog coming in here, about plus 450 last I saw, against Umar Nurmagomedov.
3:31Kind of a weird placement for this fight. I don't know what it tells us about Umar.
3:36He's beaten everyone he's fought other than Murab Dadosvili.
3:38He hasn't been super exciting along the way. Has gone as far as basically saying he's just going to lie on Song
3:45Yudong and hold him down publicly on Twitter, which isn't a great look in a division with some exciting up-and-coming prospects.
3:51But that's who he has now. He's staying active while Murab and Pyotr Yan finish their trilogy.
3:56I believe Umar has the skills that he could beat either one of those guys on the right night.
4:01I just don't know how excited the UFC is going to be to throw him in to another title fight, given both
4:08his domination and how not exciting it looks. To that point, the over four and a half rounds in this one is minus 220.
4:15I think it's about minus 180 to go do a decision.
4:18Not what we want from a dominant champion. What that's going to...
4:21Or a dominant title challenger, potentially champion. Which gets me to my bet, if you go to the alternate point spread over
4:28on DraftKings, Song at plus nine and a half rounds, which basically means he just needs to win one.
4:33Minus 110, so pretty much even to win one round.
4:36Wow. I don't really trust the finishing ability of Umar, especially when he's outright said he's just going to hold you down and control you.
4:43We see it all the time. We saw it with Islam.
4:46These guys will take a round off after they bank two or three.
4:50Kind of let their opponent back in it, not burn themselves out, and then finish strong.
4:55Song has big punching power. He's knocked down and knocked out a lot of his opponents.
4:59Umar, for all of his skills, a little bit shinny.
5:02He got knocked down by, who was it? Beksat Almakan, who came in on short notice, dropped him.
5:07Mario Bautista dropped him with a knee. His one loss was to Marab, who didn't really drop him.
5:13He just rustled him to death, but that's what Marab will do.
5:16So all it takes is one big shot from Song, which steals one round, making it to the finish.
5:22I really like that at even money. Dan, what do you got in this main event?
5:26I don't disagree with any of that. And I took a little bit of a different angle.
5:31And I will say, um, what does worry me, even though I'm, I'm more, you know, spoiler alert, Barry in the lead.
5:38Uh, I do like the over. There's not a lot of angles.
5:41I do like to be honest. I do like the angle that you just projected and it is, uh, on built, built
5:47on the same logic as far as I'm not sure Nurmagomedov is going to finish.
5:52Um, I do feel like that, you know, perhaps later he could wear down Song.
5:56You know, people talk about Nurmagomedov's cardio, but you know, I think people forget that like a, it was a very, is
6:02much more competitive than people realize that fight with Marab.
6:05Uh, B that was Marab, the cardio King, you know, see, uh, Umar broke his hand early in that fight and D
6:12I feel like 29, 28 is not only a legitimate scorecard for Nurmagomedov, but I feel like you could have also gotten
6:18a 49, 46 because people talk about round three bring the swing round.
6:22Even if they did score it for Marab, I actually would argue round five.
6:26Five was as close, if not closer in favor of, uh, Umar, but his optics were so bad that not only did
6:32it lose him key rounds in the fight overall, that it leaves us with this like memory of like, Oh, Umar, Umar gets tired.
6:39You know, I think that's a bit overblown. And even if you don't believe it's overblown, I don't think Song's the guy to push it.
6:46He's not an output machine. He hasn't had a reliable process and he himself gets tired, uh, in three round affair, as
6:53much less five round as they go. You know, you could talk about maybe he could have done better than we thought against Corey Sanhagen.
7:00If he didn't get cut, yada, yada. What if could have would have, but it's tough, man.
7:05Young's a song. You don't. I like him. I would like, like from a fan perspective, I would, I would love to
7:11see the upset here, but he, he just falls into like a head hunting fencing and his first layer takedown defense is so good.
7:18But when things get extended on the floor, Billy, or even on the feet, he just reverts to some really bad habits on the feet.
7:25He reverts to head hunting. You know, he started good with the leg and body work to O'Malley, which was smart, but
7:32he just fell back into his fencing and head hunting.
7:35Right. And in the grappling, I'm sure you noticed, Billy, he gives up a lot of back exposure.
7:40So, you know, Umar wearing them down from, from, from, from the rear phrasing and getting a submission does worry.
7:46My over bet does worry your angle as well.
7:48I would say it is on the table, but ultimately I picked Umar by decision and I parlayed the over with something
7:55else in this fight we may or may not get to, but I'll give out.
7:59No, go ahead and give us this one. Now we can circle back to it and props if you got something else you want it.
8:06Yeah, sure. I par, I parlayed it with the under in the, uh, Asakur and Orichilang, the Mongolian murderer fight.
8:12And I, uh, did, did the over in the main and the under in that fight for plus money.
8:17Yeah, fair. And again, I think we're seeing it pretty much the same way and not a lot of faith in, um, Umar's finishing ability.
8:25I will say the one thing I like about it, plus nine and a half is just one round.
8:30It's a far better price than the over. So if you're not parlaying and want to take a little bit better or
8:37bigger shot on just that one, that all makes sense to your point though.
8:41I didn't really love betting on this one. I'm handling the main event in Sean's absence for this one.
8:46Had this been a regular week where I wasn't writing the main event, I'd come in and tell people to just listen
8:52to Zerillo and leave me out of it. So not my favorite bet of the week, but I do think we're all
8:59kind of seeing it the same way. With that, we'll move on to the co-main event, which you just submitted your breakdown to me.
9:06I've got that scheduled to go out Friday morning, Eastern time.
9:09Denise Gomes versus Zhao Nam Yan. I probably said that wrong.
9:12I'll let you handle this one first. Give us a quick breakdown since you did the full preview.
9:17Yeah. By the way, I know you're hosting, but feel free to throw to me on any of the Chinese names so
9:24that way I can look like the fool. And I can also fall back on my half Chinese heritage as far as
9:30putting a little bit of twang on these pronunciations.
9:33But yeah, no. Yan Xiaonan, I think she's been very dependable fighter for the most part.
9:37She wins the fights she's supposed to, right? And it's not easy, but I mean, it's kind of like Song Yidong where
9:44it's pretty clear the matchups that they should have trouble in, right?
9:47Very good athletes for the division. Very strong, just like Song Yidong.
9:51Yan Xiaonan is for her division. And again, translating to the scoring criteria, the meta of MMA that we're in, you want these higher output fighters.
9:58Now, when you look at it on paper, Denise Gomes, she stacked up a decent amount.
10:03I watched all of her tape, right, before this fight, like I was doing a full in-depth profile for her.
10:09And even then, though, I would say the sample size is a bit skewed, especially when you look at the level of
10:15competitions and the type of matchups they've had. Again, people have kind of figured out Yan Xiaonan, you have to grapple her.
10:21And if you're a high-level grappler, you can do it.
10:24But Denise Gomes isn't that, although she grapples way more than she should.
10:28Like, she is a high-level grappler. She does the thing that I hate, Billy, where, you know, when a fighter hurts somebody and then they clench them.
10:36And you're like, yeah, you know, and then especially when they hurt the fighter, that they're a better striker then.
10:42So they should hurt them. But then they clench them.
10:44And that fighter is a better grappler, the one that's hurt.
10:48So it's like, what are you doing on multiple levels?
10:50She does that. And whether you're looking all the way back to her losses that, you know, maybe didn't age the best
10:57against like Loma, look for me, right? Love me some Loma, granted.
11:00But, you know, even her more recent wins, she is making constant suspect decision-making that I think is going to make it
11:07harder to bet on Gomez as she climbs up.
11:09Before, if you've been betting on her, you've been doing well.
11:12You've been getting at her at underdog odds or very playable odds.
11:16And she's arguably overperforming, even if she's winning by decision, right?
11:19She's an underdog in a lot of these fights.
11:22However, this is a big step up. And we can talk about age.
11:25I know, you know, MMA gamblers, they're very like Jerry Sandusky-like when they're scouting talent.
11:30We get almost a little too excited about the age gap.
11:33Like, easy guys, right? Like, but I would say, I would say, Billy, and this is funny because, you know, Denise Gomez,
11:39a majority of her recent wins in the win streak comes against really aged out opponents.
11:44Even my beloved Tisha Torres, now Tisha Pennington, right?
11:47That being said, I still would argue whether we're talking about the outliers like Chris Cyborg or the younger fighters in the
11:53division, age isn't as big of a deal in the women's divisions for multiple reasons, you know?
11:58And Yan Xiaonan is a freak athlete who is making improvements in her grappling defense, you know?
12:03She was saved by the bell a lot. But yeah, long-winded to say, just to tie all this in, is I feel
12:09like this is a classic spot, Billy, where we could actually be getting a buy low on Yan Jiangnan.
12:15Like, I get love on Denise Gomes. I think maybe your points play on her side could be something worth looking at if you like that side.
12:22But man, I just ended up picking a side in riding because even though you could shave off with an SGP or
12:29a round three decision on Yan, honestly, the way Gomes comes in, she's a one-sided fighter, kind of like Yair Rodriguez was
12:35for the majority of his career where it's a lot of flash, but he's really throwing from one side of his body the whole time.
12:42Like, that is Denise Gomez. She's even admitted that.
12:45And she wades in. It's a lot of flash, and there's not a lot of defense there.
12:50Not as bad as Kennedy Nunchucks, who, you know, is going to get hit with his Mayweather stuff.
12:55But she's, yeah, but she's like flaunting the same stuff.
12:58Like, she shows similar looks, and the defense is not there when fighters hit it.
13:02And basically, I say that all to say she could reenact with Jessica Andrade.
13:06Had happened to her against Yan Jiangnan, who was even at that advanced stage of her career, Billy, still a much more
13:13proven in every phase, much less the striking. And she ran right face first into it.
13:17I could see that happening here. I just picked a side and ride, and I went with a favorite here, Billy.
13:23Are you on the opposite side of me, or what?
13:26What do we got? Kinda. I gave out Denise Gomez on Monday in my luck ratings.
13:31It was a much better price. It was almost plus 140.
13:34I'm not as confident with that falling down to what it is now.
13:38I think we're seeing like plus 120, plus 125.
13:41At the time of recording, it might bounce back a little bit.
13:44A couple of, I mean, I agree with you about the grappling.
13:47The interesting thing, both women have won every fight when they didn't get taken down multiple times.
13:52That is the history of their career. So which one of them is going to proactively grapple here?
13:58I think it might be Gomez. She averages about twice as many takedowns per 15 minutes in her UFC career against lesser competition.
14:04It almost feels like whoever shoots first and gets a takedown just wins that round between the two of them, because neither
14:11of them are great at getting back up or reversing.
14:14Yeah. It's hard to bank on fighters, and I talk about this all the time.
14:18We might think they should do something. I don't want to bet on what I think they should do.
14:23We need to bet on what they will do.
14:26I'm not super confident on either side. What swayed me, though, and I know you pointed out all the age stuff, not
14:32only is Yan Zhanan 37 years old, we haven't seen her in like 16 months.
14:37She could have lost a step athletically. You know, if it's a 37-year-old who we saw three months ago, they're not going to decline that much.
14:44We don't know what Yan Zhanan's been up to since then.
14:47On the flip side, Denise Gomes is about 10 years younger, probably getting more skilled, if not more athletic.
14:53So that's where I think those age gaps matter more.
14:56Not that it means she's fallen off a cliff, but just the probability of that happening when we haven't seen you in
15:02a year plus is a lot higher than, you know, an older fighter who fights every three, four months.
15:08When Kevin Holland is 37, I'll say, well, we saw him three months ago.
15:12We know what he's going to look like as an example, but not the case here.
15:16With that said, do not hate your pick at current odds.
15:19You wrote your article Thursday evening. I gave out an early pick on Denise Gomes as an underdog.
15:25With that, let's get to some other underdogs we like on the card.
15:28I have two that I'm definitely betting. One, I want to run by you, but you start us off if you've got any Moneyline underdog plays.
15:36Yes. So there's one that I think we're going to be on the opposite side here from the little bit of chitter
15:42chatter that we had pre-show, which was Jack Jenkins, which I think is a popular underdog as we're recording the show.
15:48Money is coming down on his line. And I just got done taping that one and plugged it into my old action tracker over there.
15:56But I do think he's live for the reason of just short technical analysis.
16:00Yes, the leg kicks, but also my canary in a coal mine, Billy, which I know you acknowledge and acknowledge me for, which I even appreciate extra.
16:07But you've acknowledged this where, you know, historically from 155 to 125, those long and lanky guys, bad things happen from banana
16:14peel stuff to just their durability going. As they get into their early 30s is already a red flag.
16:19But talking about layoffs and age, 34 is old for that trend.
16:23That's red flag city for me. And he's coming off.
16:26They're both coming off layoffs, but he's coming off the longer year plus layoff.
16:30So those alone almost at banana peel. If you can get anything near plus 130, I think it's worth a small stat.
16:36Nothing crazy. I don't want my night to depend on that because Woodson's going to have a huge edge that I'm sure you'll cover at some point.
16:44Yeah, no issues with that one. Like I said, I will talk about my angle on that later.
16:49A couple I have. First one I'm very excited about.
16:52Namjri Bat-Bayar, one of my favorite prospects, if not my favorite prospect from the road to the UFC last season.
16:58Mongolian fighter, big power, not a ton of interest in defense and offensively or defensively.
17:02More than two to one against Andre Lima. Another one I gave out my luck ratings.
17:07Andre Lima is a guy who just keeps popping as someone who makes a lot of sense to fade.
17:12And it's weird to call this good luck, but he was getting dominated in his UFC debut when, oh God, what's his name?
17:19Igor Severino just bit a chunk out of his arm.
17:22Igor was winning that fight. It didn't make any sense.
17:25So Andre Lima got kind of a free win by getting bit and then immediately got the bite tattooed into him, which
17:31is probably terrible for hygiene and like infectious disease reasons.
17:34But kind of a cool story that wins a split decision over Mitch Raposo when he missed weight.
17:39Not a good look. Kind of a decision over Felipe Dos Santos.
17:43He got exposed by Kevin Borjas as a big favorite after pulling out of a few fights over a few years.
17:49Coming back just two months later to fight a guy in Bat-Bayar who I think has more physical tools, just more explosive, more power.
17:56Has his flaws, especially in the grappling defense, but we're getting better than two to one on a lesser known fighter who
18:02I've bet a few times on the road to UFC, primarily as an underdog.
18:06I will take that as long as it stays, honestly, plus 180 or so I think is my threshold.
18:12Do you have any bets on that fight? I think that's excellent analysis.
18:15I'll just add to that, that I'm not a big, as far as my own betting biases, I think it's important to call it your own, right?
18:23I'm not a very big, big moments guy. And Bat-Bayar, he's a fun fighter.
18:27He has a power to produce big moments. And I will say that when you fight as close as Lima does, especially
18:34as big as a favorite that he's traditionally pulled, you leave, as you know, Billy, you leave the door open to have
18:40a whole round stolen from you with just one big moment.
18:43So even if you're not on the Bat-Bayar side, I would express caution on the Lima side to all of Billy's points.
18:49And just the last point on that, because it parlays in the previous and future fights that we're talking about.
18:55The weigh-ins just happened as opposed to this recording, as, you know, previous to this recording, folks.
19:00And a lot of the fighters that either missed weight or were late to the scale were traveling fighters.
19:06You don't just have the time zone with China, but you also lose a day, basically, right?
19:11They're losing this day, especially if they're not fighters who can afford to come out early.
19:15They're getting shipped out on the normal Tuesday, which is already tight.
19:19But then you're losing that kind of whole day with the China travel.
19:22That's a bit tough. And it looks like, you know, Lima might have had troubles at the scale and not looked at the best from what I saw.
19:31I believe Billy's. So I just want to add that in there.
19:34No, I'm glad you pointed out. I didn't even realize that it already happened.
19:38I looked it up. Lima came in, missed by a pound.
19:41Like I said, in my breakdown, he'd previously missed weight for a fight.
19:45So that's not necessarily a function of the travel.
19:48He's just a big flyweight. Also, to your point about big moments, stealing rounds.
19:52You know, I think it's calmed down a little bit in the last couple of years with some questionable.
19:57Yeah. Yeah. But if there's a close round between an Asian fighter and a Brazilian, probably going to go to the Asian fighter more often than not.
20:05So if you're on the fence about any picks, I think that's worth considering.
20:09Like I said, not as much of a factor as it was two, three years ago when some of these scorecards were just pre-written.
20:16We had the great Sean Zerillo crash out when Fakert Dinoff got robbed in Abu Dhabi.
20:21I'm trying to remember who he fought. Carlos Leal.
20:23Yes. Was that right? Yes. It was clearly Leal won and one of the judges had 30-27 against him when they were in the Middle East.
20:31That was one of my favorite slack moments with Sean Zerillo just losing his mind with that robbery.
20:36But I don't think it's as bad now, but I think we'll see a bit of it here in Shanghai.
20:42Thoughts? Yeah. I will say this. You had those tinfoil hat sketchy decisions that you just referenced in the Middle East.
20:48But statistically, no BS us putting a tint on it by the numbers of people who have crunched them.
20:53Shout out to Scott Fontana and my guy Dan over there.
20:56But Australia actually has the worst judges traditionally from judging dissensions, bad decisions, etc.
21:00And we are right by there. So Australian fighters, they fight well in China.
21:05However, if we get Australian judges, folks, early on, that could tell us something to say just to follow up on that note.
21:11So, yeah. And to your point, anytime we're worried about questionable judging, just logically it makes more sense to be on the underdog side.
21:18Because if someone might get robbed, you want to be betting on plus money, not minus money.
21:23Sure. All right. So last one. I teased this ahead of time.
21:27I have one underdog I'm leaning towards. I haven't done a lot of tape on either of these fighters because there's not much that exists.
21:34But that's Levi Rodriguez against... Help me out with the name here, Dan, because I've seen it a bunch of different ways.
21:40Oh, is this Lucy? Lucy? Lucy? Lucy. I put a little Chinese twang on there.
21:44Yeah. Yeah. Lucy, who is being referred to as the Alex Pereira of China over there.
21:49But yeah, go ahead, Billy. Yeah. So, you know, we're getting decent plus money on Levi Rodriguez, who I don't think is great.
21:56But Lucy or C. Lou or whatever he's listed at, depending on where you see it, seems to still have no grappling.
22:02You know, he's fought exclusively against other Chinese fighters who aren't going to push his grappling.
22:07The thing about it, though, Dan, is I have no idea if Levi Rodriguez can grapple either.
22:12I just know he's a brilliant dude who's been doing MMA a lot longer.
22:16So logically, you'd think he might shoot. But logically, you'd think Kennedy, as a Chuck, would keep his hands up, among other such pratfalls and gambling.
22:23So I would love to hear your take on this fight.
22:26What do you think is going to happen? Is there value on the underdog at plus 165 or so?
22:32So this was one of those fights where I did like a cursory search and was able to find only a little bit of highlights.
22:39And I told myself, OK, I'm going to go back and go deeper.
22:43But I wouldn't be surprised if maybe I saw what there is to see.
22:47And what you see is basically, you know, like I said, really strong kickboxing and really thwop.
22:52Like you listen to the shots that he's landing in the kickboxing fights with the thicker gloves.
22:57You're like, wow, this guy can really strike the Chinese fighter Lucy here.
23:01But like then you watch his MMA fights and when he gets on the ground on bottom, it's a world of difference.
23:07It's your tail as old as time, right? Where it's like your big athletic dude.
23:11Doesn't matter how impressive they are athletically, how much pop.
23:14You're on the ground. You're in a different world.
23:17You're in the ocean, right? But from the little I saw, which was like a fight and a highlight and a half
23:23of Levi, I didn't see any ground stuff. And what I did see was not, I don't know about you saw, Billy, but it was not promising.
23:31And I'm not big into that narrative of, oh, they're just flying this guy out.
23:35The promotion wants X fighter to win because these fights have to go down.
23:39That being said, yes, they do book it with the intent to have a nice show.
23:44You know what I'm saying? And this is one of those bookings to me, Billy, but I'm not jumping in to play anything here.
23:51That is totally fair. Like I said, I'm still torn on it myself.
23:55I might come to some clarity throughout the week.
23:57Before we get into our props, the dog days of summer are the best time to be listening to this podcast.
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29:01Thanks, Jill. Now we'll get into our prop section, Dan.
29:04I know I prepped you a little bit about what we're going to do.
29:08This one kind of bleeds over into the underdogs, but I saved it for prop.
29:12And that is the opening fight of the night, Cam Nelson taking on Meng Ding.
29:17Kind of similar to the Larry Rodriguez situation where Meng Ding has boxing and kickboxing background.
29:21Cam Nelson, former Canadian junior hockey player. He's talking about this story on the Discord.
29:25My first grappling tournament after I came back to martial arts having retired from MMA.
29:30Beat a couple decent guys, tapped him out, and then just got smoked by some Canadian dude who drove over from Ontario,
29:36who told me after he'd played in the WHL.
29:39I don't know what it is with these Canadians.
29:41They seem tough. Cam Nelson, on tape, has looked great.
29:44He has also fought in a completely terrible promotion.
29:47Seems to almost be centered around him. He gets very questionable levels of competition.
29:51But he has three wins by submission in that career.
29:54I found some tape of him doing local grappling tournaments.
29:57At least has what I would describe as a passing interest in grappling.
30:00And if you watch Meng Ding, he does not.
30:03He is really struggling when he gets put on the ground, put on his back.
30:07Has been a constant problem for him. So I am taking a little bit on Cam Nelson's money line, which is plus 120.
30:14But my favorite bet is his submission at plus 500.
30:17I've seen even plus 550. I think it's starting to creep up just a little bit.
30:22Dan, thoughts on that fight? Yeah, man. I don't want to get caught speeding, playing Meng Ding, but I will say I
30:28am leaning toward him as a pick. Cam Nelson, it's tough to say, right?
30:32Because he does look good on the tape. Good record and everything on paper as well.
30:37You know, managed by my guy Brian Butler there.
30:39So it makes sense how he got in here, right?
30:42You know, but I will say it's like, is this one of, you know, Canada's better guys?
30:47You know, I had Adam Posner or ProCenter on my prospects list a couple years ago.
30:52We still haven't seen him yet. And I've been doing a lot of CFFC work and came across Hunter Lee.
30:57And I'm like, OK, Canada's like producing some really good fighters here.
31:01You know, I know they've been known for like not producing any lately in many years.
31:06But I think they do have a quiet new wave coming.
31:09Now, is Cam Nelson a part of this wave?
31:11Well, the funny thing is here you can cash your bets, Billy.
31:15We still might not have that answer. But from your logic and from even just an air quote basic betting logic, like,
31:21yeah, like if you are going to bet anything, it is the Cam Nelson side for the reasons you said, Billy.
31:27So even though I'm probably going to have a mengding official pick and not being rushing to the betting window, I actually
31:34I don't disagree with your bets or the logic behind him there.
31:37Yeah. And I honestly, you might have convinced me to just play the submission on a kind of a not sure that he wins.
31:44But if he wins, this is the clearest path to it.
31:47Could be an interesting one for takedown props. I was really hoping we'd get some of those takedowns if you can strike
31:54props early with the white card coming. It does not seem to be how that's going this week.
31:59So, well, that's a little foreshadowing to a couple of my picks here.
32:03Other prop that I like is Jing Nan Zhang against Julia Polastri.
32:06Probably butchered that one. No, not bad. No, not bad.
32:09I'm taking Zhang at plus three and a half high volume striker getting to the UFC.
32:14Well, past her prime had a pretty fun fight with Angela Hill last time around.
32:18But it was just a little bit outclassed. Her plus three and a half line is minus 135 at DraftKings in a fight that is.
32:25No, I'm sorry. That quoted that wrong. Minus 145 in a fight that's like minus 400 to go to a decision.
32:31Don't really trust Polastri. She has tools occasionally that seem to come and go.
32:35Didn't watch a lot of tape on her. Was more interested in the other side of this fight.
32:40But Polastri, not a great finisher. She has a couple finishes, but against a 40-year-old Carolina Kovalkevich.
32:45And someone named Patricia Aluhas on the Contender Series, who we've never seen from again.
32:50So, yeah. At the very least, I think the volume and possibly the judging on Jing Nan will get her at least
32:56one round here, which is all we're asking for with a plus three and a half.
33:01What do you got in this one? How often do you see that, by the way, if you're just doing like the cursory like topology record check, right?
33:09When you go to see the strength of competition and when you follow their best one, okay, this is the best person they fought.
33:16How have they done since then? It's often the Contender Series fighter, Billy, like you just referenced.
33:21And often they have not fought since that loss.
33:23So, whenever they actually fought the 4-0 or 5-0 fighter, you notice that too.
33:27Those fighters, they've never fought against. You're like, well, I don't even know how much I can say from that.
33:33Yeah. This one's particularly interesting because she disappeared until for like two and a half years and then came back and won her decision.
33:40So, I don't know if it's like, yeah, I lost my Contender Series.
33:44Maybe I'll retire. But then a year and a half later, you get the bug or something.
33:49But, yeah, it is an interesting trend. That's so often.
33:52Yeah, you see that so often. Yeah, I'll just say that both fighters did miss weight.
33:56So, you know, they both have that to deal with.
33:59But, again, Pilastri is the traveling fighter. So, I imagine when it comes to recovering, rehydrating, and part of the travel talk.
34:05And, again, man, I love me some Chinese food.
34:08I'm part Chinese. I've been to China multiple times.
34:11I've trained there, Billy. It is not the easiest place to get some good food.
34:15I will say that. And you can run into the wrong, you know, you can get yourself into trouble probably easier as a foreigner than not.
34:23So, you know, just to throw that out there.
34:25And I think you're getting value here just for simply because, you know, you see this constantly where a fighter will make a debut.
34:32And sometimes they'll just patchy mix and they'll continue to bomb themselves out of the organization.
34:37But oftentimes, win or lose, they'll make a better account for themselves that second fight, right?
34:41They're more used to it. Whereas, Julia Pilastri, as much as there are aspects of her game that I like as well,
34:48it's easy to argue she's been overvalued both from the oddsmakers and the betting love from the market.
34:53She also got one of those controversial losses, which is not as controversial as people make out.
34:58It was just they were kind of underrating Alan Carr, right?
35:01I think a lot of that was. And then so some people think, oh, she should have won that.
35:06She's going to win here. I just feel like, yeah, I feel like if you are going to play this fight, I
35:13like your angle on it, Billy, but I'm going to stay away.
35:16And I'm not even sure who I'm coming down on a pick on, you know, that way and really threw me.
35:22You know what I'm saying? So I may actually pick Zhang Jingnan, but I don't I'm not confident in this one.
35:28Yeah, fair. I've been debating her point spread and her money line.
35:32As I said last time you were on, you know, I'm trying to talk myself into taking the money line when I take the point spread.
35:39Did that with Ian Gary? Should have just stuck with the point spread.
35:43But whichever version of that I do, I end up kicking myself after.
35:47Because he either left money on the table or gave some back for no reason.
35:51But such is gangling. All right. A couple stat props I'm going to go through pretty quickly here just because we don't actually have lines yet.
35:59I'm just guessing a little bit here. The first is Lawrence Louis takedown overs against Hector Santiago.
36:04Louis had 13 takedowns between the three fights he has in Road to UFC or the UFC proper.
36:09And that's with a 40% takedown accuracy. So that means he's attempted roughly 30 across three fights.
36:14He is fighting Hector Santiago, a 6-1 Brazilian, being brought in.
36:17Specifically for this, direct signing without a great record who has a boxing, kickboxing, and karate background.
36:22Louis needs to shoot. He's going to shoot. And hopefully he has some success.
36:26I wouldn't mind playing even a 2-1⁄2 or a 3-1⁄2 over if that's what it takes.
36:31If we get some of these alternate props, and you're going to have to wake up pretty early to get these, I
36:37think, Saturday morning or maybe stay up late Friday night.
36:40Laddering those up to like 4-5, 6 at big plus money is something I'll be on.
36:45Do you have any bets on this fight? Any thoughts on the prop or anything like that?
36:49Oh, man. You beat me to it. I was going to say my most confident bet on the card is not a
36:56bet you can find at any house because that bet, Billy, was that Lawrence Louis was going to be a Billy total takedowns guy for sure.
37:03That was my most confident thing. When I was bringing down this fight, I agree with all your analysis, by the way.
37:10But when I was bringing down this fight, looking at the dynamics, I'm like, oh, this is kind of a lower-level Freeland
37:16guy who a lot of people will see the city kickboxing and assume that, you know, if they're not watching the tape,
37:22right, they're not going to maybe see how actually grappling heavy he is.
37:26I'm like, this is a perfect Billy Ward total takedown spot, and I'm not going to mush you on it.
37:32But it is absolutely the angle that jumped out at me for whatever that's worth, Billy.
37:37I will cash one of those one day. But, yeah, I got Lawrence Louis here, and I almost thought about, you know, parlaying Louis.
37:44I'm like, you could parlay some of these favorites, right?
37:46And maybe there's like some degenerate cash that you could make early in the card.
37:51And then I see all these fighters start missing weight because Palastro is one I was thinking about.
37:56I'm like, no, never, never mind. Why would I do that?
37:59That's total true. I will say there is a Louis Long parlay that's out there for plus money that I think would be some real degenerate stuff.
38:07But I'm staying away. Yeah, there's some options for it.
38:10One other thing I'll say, and this is just generally with takedown props, lighter weight class fighters have a harder time holding
38:16each other down than heavier weight class fighters, which if you go to any, like, jiu-jitsu or wrestling gym, you'll immediately see.
38:23Like, I, you know, compete at 200 pounds, walk around 210.
38:26If me and a guy my size get a takedown, that's just where we are for the rest of the round.
38:32Like, we're not getting back up. But these, you know, bantam weights, fly weights, they're popping up over and over, which means
38:38you have more opportunities to get takedowns again if you get back up.
38:42I can't take you down twice if I hold you down the whole time.
38:46So that's worth considering anytime you're betting on these.
38:49And then the other stat prop I'm on is Bilal Hassan significant strikes overs.
38:53I've been looking at this fight the whole time.
38:55You know, Bilal Hassan just had an awesome contender series debut, did his whole Michael Jackson routine, knocked a guy out in 40 seconds.
39:02Yeah. I think Nilsson Rojas, who he's fighting, is pretty tough.
39:05I couldn't find a ton of tape on Rojas, but he stands in there, has good boxing.
39:10This is basically my way of betting on Hassan to still win, but Rojas to make it tough on him.
39:16But Hassan throws a lot of volume, so he can clear, you know, 40, 50 strikes pretty quickly under the right circumstances.
39:22And I don't think Rojas is going to go away.
39:25I'm guessing you have some hot round stuff on this.
39:28This feels like a Dan Tom special betting at round two or round three, which also kind of goes into you can't
39:35clear that number without the fight extending at least a little bit.
39:38So am I right on my prediction? And do you have anything on this fight?
39:42Yeah, you read my mind. And so I came across Bilal Hassan doing CFFC stuff, but just past, like just after his
39:49title run is when I came in it. But still seeing like who he's fought.
39:53He's fought some like really like tough guys, even that you might not recognize some of his names on Bilal Hassan's record.
39:59But he's fought some really like competitive dudes that are doing well in their own right.
40:04And yeah, it's not like the, you want to talk about setup fights.
40:08That contender series fight was a setup fight. Not that that's not Bilal Hassan's style.
40:12Not that he hasn't done that. Not that he can't do that or won't do that again, but these are, these are lighter weight guys, right?
40:20And to Billy's point about the getup and the grappling dynamic.
40:23Well, the striking dynamic and stereotype is what these guys can throw a lot, take a lot and keep going generally.
40:29So I don't think it's a full prep for either of them.
40:32So it could actually get sketchy for both parties, but with it so inflated, you know, unless you're taking a shot on
40:39a hot round or something like that. I might be looking to see what it's listed at as far as my round robin.
40:45That's the one thing I'm still nailing together. Despite hitting big on my round robin last week, Billy, not feeling confident about that this week.
40:53I'm not one of those like, oh, I hit it.
40:56Well, I'm just going to roll right in and go cash again.
40:59Like, we'll see what I end up with this week.
41:02But I will say that I did like what I saw.
41:05This is a different Rosas, by the way. It's a Peruvian Rosas.
41:09But similar to the Rosas that is related to the Raul Rosas that I taped, Billy.
41:13And I know you did too. And he didn't end up actually fighting.
41:17I might have been in the minority, but I was actually impressed what I saw out of tape.
41:22And but again, between other people that I respect not seeing it to the fact that whether it's other people or me,
41:29we don't know until they get in there and we get sample sizes in the cages.
41:33You know, Billy, we don't know. Right. So that's a that's a tough thing for better or worse.
41:38So I don't like the money line at all.
41:41I don't even like Bilal Hassan in a parlay, which sounds obvious to a lot of people, I'm sure.
41:46But yeah, unless you're sniping a hot round or taking a flyer on the dog, we get even more crazy inflation.
41:53Like I get a small flyer, but I keep it to small flyers, whether it's dog shots or round shots, folks.
41:59Yeah. And this is a tough one. I will say this is the one time I'll give everyone a pass who wants
42:05to parlay, because if you're trying to do my live bet, roll it over thing that I argue makes more sense.
42:11Yeah, that's going to be like 1 a.m. if you're on the West Coast.
42:15So, yeah, you have my permission this week and this week only to parlay without my silent scorn from home.
42:21Yeah, I am excited for this fight, though. Rojas kind of has the Cam Nelson thing where he's fought in lesser promotions and against lesser people.
42:28So, any judgment we make is questionable. Yeah, it looks good doing this.
42:32His last fight was for a promotion owned by his head coach, which is never a great sign.
42:37It doesn't mean you didn't still beat a guy trying to beat you, but you kind of understand how we got there.
42:44So, do you have any other props you didn't get to that you wanted to give out before we move on to our final pick of the night?
42:52I got a prop that is linked to, not linked to, but, you know, it's in the same fight as the best bet.
42:59Is that okay to give the prop out that I'm sprinkling on in that fight?
43:03Yeah, no, we'll save that for the end. We'll get those.
43:06Okay, I'll save it for the end, no worries.
43:09A couple linked things. Sounds good. With that said, let's get to our favorite bets on the card presented by DraftKings.
43:15I'll start briefly. More of a final pick for me, but I like Sean Woodson to win his fight against Jack Jenkins.
43:21I always defer to you with the big, tall, skinny, lighter weight guys.
43:25The problem I have with using that logic here is I think Jack Jenkins is kind of fragile too.
43:30Ever since he got his arm snapped by Chappie Mariscal, he has looked a little bit shaky.
43:35His wins since then are Herbert Burns and Ramon Tavares, which doesn't really tell me much.
43:40I'm worried about his leg kicking ability if he can get into range.
43:44We saw this similar dynamic play out with Jalen Turner just a couple weeks ago when you were on, where the tall
43:50guy just punched right over the top of the leg kick and made that a moot point.
43:55This fight gives me a lot of similarities to that fight in that we have the tall, skinny fighter who's going to
44:01try to punch and the shorter fighter needs to get into range to kick, but that is a dangerous game to play.
44:08Obviously some skill discrepancies. Woodson, we haven't seen him in over a year since he got knocked out by Dan Ige.
44:14No shame in getting knocked out by Dan Ige.
44:16Probably a good thing to take that amount of time off.
44:20With all that said, he's 34 now, just turned 34, kind of like we were talking about at the end.
44:25Scary, but I do think Sean Woodson gets this one done.
44:28I'm a huge Jack Jenkins fan, just don't love this matchup for him.
44:32You already touched on that fight, so we'll be opposing each other slightly.
44:36What is your last pick for the night, Dan?
44:39Yeah, I like that you mentioned the Jenkins health thing.
44:41I mentioned that to a buddy of mine who was also interested in Jenkins.
44:46I said, understand the factor. He's also had broken hands and stuff, which in hindsight maybe looked as his Santos loss a
44:52little bit less bad, but yeah, it's a factor for sure.
44:55Good shout. My best bet, I'm going to say, is right in a similar range, I think.
45:00Something that I was looking in those ranges, you try to look for something for your best bet ranges.
45:05I found a best bet, so here's my best bet, putting all that previous talk aside.
45:10I like Saruja-Borhas fight, so I did tease a prop because the prop was a subsprinkle.
45:15I found a better line than most. That being said, I sprinkled on it, but the bet here, the best bet here in that fight is the under.
45:23The under 2.5 rounds in the Saruja and Borhas fight.
45:26Basically, you're paying the same price depending on where house you're looking at as you would for Saruja.
45:31Inside the distance for a point of comparison there, folks.
45:34And I like that bet too. I don't hate anybody with that bet.
45:38But in my mind, if it's within a similar range, why not take the under 2.5, Billy?
45:43Because you're covering Borhas' win condition, which as much as I had a really bad taste in my mouth, and I'm sure
45:49other bettors do, and they want to get that back, which is a dangerous thing to do against Borhas.
45:54I have respect for Borhas, and I bet him before Billy.
45:58And win or lose, he's proven me right where that he is really early live in the early goings.
46:03And again, that's an under-win condition. So I figure, why not get both win conditions for the same price, right?
46:09Am I tracking there? Yeah, that makes its own sense.
46:12Effectively trading the final 2.5 minutes of Ray Saruja for 12.5 minutes of Kevin Borhas is the logic there.
46:17Yeah. So, you know, we know that stoppages decrease over time.
46:20It's easier to hang in there against the tired fighters not hitting that hard.
46:24Might be a personal preference, you know, if you're listening to this and trying to decide which one of those to go.
46:31But I love your angle on that, partially because I have been the biggest Kevin Borhas' underrated shouter in this space, I
46:37think, for a couple years before his Andre Lima fight.
46:40Just a couple months ago, I think I described him as the best 2-in-4 fighter in UFC history.
46:45Yeah, yeah. Bit of a backhanded compliment, but a compliment nonetheless.
46:48And he cashed as a pretty big underdog there.
46:51That is going to do it for the Action Network podcast.
46:54Go download the DraftKings Sports app today and use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when you sign up.
46:59Plus, mark your calendars for September 2nd because DraftKings Game Day is coming with some incredible offers.
47:04Hopefully, you guys can all make it up or stay up for these fights.
47:08I gave out some first fight of the night picks almost on purpose just to encourage everyone to get there.
47:14But head over to ActionNetwork.com to see content from both Dan and myself.
47:17Download the award-winning Action Network app. And sign up for Action Network Pro to get all of our picks right away.
47:23Best of luck with all your bets this weekend.
47:26Enjoy the violence, and thanks for joining us. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
47:30If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
47:35This is Tony Ayo from The Real Report with Tony Ayo and Uncle Murda.
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49:10Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now.
49:13Go to HomeServe.com slash podcast for 50% less your first year.
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49:20Dad, Disney activities are on Lingo Kids. What? Moana and Elsa and Marvel's Spider-Man, all of them.
49:25On Lingo Kids? Yes, Dad, on Lingo Kids. That's pretty cool.
49:28I know. You just lost them for the rest of the afternoon.
49:32Worth it. Full of fun activities inspired by Disney's Moana, Frozen, Zootopia, Marvel's Spider-Man, and more, Lingo Kids is where little ones discover more about favorite characters.
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