TOUR Championship Betting Preview | 2026
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
42 min
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Aug 25, 2026
Published
Tue, August 25, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Some people use ChatGPT to answer questions. Others use it to get real work done.
0:05With ChatGPT Work, you bring the goal, plus real inputs like briefs, notes, files, feedback, data, and project plans.
0:10It can help turn them into an analysis, tracker, deck outline, prototype, or workflow you can review and keep shaping.
0:17You stay in control, giving direction and choosing the final output.
0:20Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.
0:23Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting work mode. Available on Plus and Pro Plans.
0:28We're a real gardener. Be a 2%er with the ActiveCash credit card from Wells Fargo.
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0:46Visit CarMax.com for details. Want to drive? CarMax. Dad, Disney activities are on Lingo Kids!
0:50What? Moana and Elsa and Marvel's Spider-Man, all of them!
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0:57I know! You just lost them for the rest of the afternoon.
1:00Worth it. Full of fun activities inspired by Disney's Moana, Frozen, Zootopia, Marvel's Spider-Man, and more, Lingo Kids is where little ones discover more about favorite characters.
1:09Lingo Kids! Everything kids love. Download it for free.
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1:32The Action Network Podcast. Better than most. Better than most.
1:35Better than most! Winner, winner, chicken dinner! Four! You got real talent.
1:38Don't concentrate on golf. What is it, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.
1:44This is your final PGA betting preview for us for the season on the week.
1:48Today, we're going to dive into this weekend's tour championship.
1:51Final tournament in the FedEx playoffs. 70 players down to 50.
1:55Now we're down to 30. It's going to be the final episode of the season, like I mentioned.
2:00Then this podcast is going to go full NFL, which, you know, obviously Spencer and I are golf junkies.
2:06But I think it's hard to not, you know, be aware that football is king.
2:11And I will certainly be excited for football. After this show, I'm taking my talents over to work on some NFL preseason
2:18projections, which everyone loves to hear about the NFL preseason.
2:21So definitely looking forward to the regular season. And Spencer, how have the playoffs for you so far?
2:26And are you looking forward to the tour championship here at Eastlake?
2:30I mean, I'll look forward to it a little bit more.
2:33I think once we get into the match play that was just discussed on Tuesday of what the format's going to look like in 2028.
2:41I think this is about as suboptimal of a way that they have it right now.
2:46It shouldn't be like the top 30 names get here and anybody can win.
2:50And I understand that you're always going to have like legitimacy problems with the way that it's played out.
2:56But I think a true head-to-head format at least kind of has everybody have a chance.
3:01There's probably ways that you could have done it that could have been simpler that would have given an advantage.
3:07But playoffs have gone well so far. It's, you know, still chasing outrights this season, it feels like.
3:13But I think it's been eight of nine profitable weeks in a row.
3:17And that's always something that you like to see.
3:20And, you know, I've enjoyed doing this show with you, Kyle and Michael throughout the year.
3:25And fingers crossed that we're going to be able to get this back up and running next season because it's definitely one
3:31of the things that I enjoy doing. And I know there's a lot of people out there that do listen to it.
3:38So I appreciate you being my co-host along the way with this.
3:42And I do look forward to one more episode here where hopefully we can have a profitable week.
3:47Yeah, I will definitely be keeping an eye on my inbox because I'm hoping that we can run this back next year as well.
3:55I've had a lot of fun. And I like this year being more consistent doing every week because I feel like we
4:02can get more value out there to listeners, but also more value in the betting streets because bouncing off of you or
4:08in your model and your ideas certainly make me a better better as well.
4:13So let's get into the course here. Obviously, Eastlake has hosted the tour championship for a number of years now.
4:19We've seen a couple of exciting finishes. I know this is old news now, but I'm just glad they did away with their head start format, I suppose.
4:27I know that they have some work to do.
4:30I've heard some talks about match play format. I think that would be fantastic for the tour championship.
4:36I think match play is awesome to watch, especially when it's not every single week.
4:40I think every once in a while is an awesome mix up.
4:44So what are your thoughts on this course? And obviously a little bit of tweaks they had last year.
4:50What are your thoughts there? Yeah, Eastlake, it's like one of the things I always write about with this venue is it's
4:57this really challenging test, at least in theory in years past that makes sure that everybody earned their paydays.
5:03And like one of the things I noticed, and I want to switch this answer as we start talking about it a
5:09little bit, but it's always historically up until last year kind of been this complicated layout where I found there to be very few unique opportunities to score.
5:18And you would kind of get this jumbled up scoring where there were six or seven locations where all of your upside needed to be found.
5:26And then you were trying to tread water on all of your other locations.
5:30And last year we saw Andrew Green move this venue closer to Donald Ross's original intent for it.
5:36We saw all 18 tee boxes rebuilt that included an overall of the fairways, bunkers, greens, all of that was done to modernize this course.
5:44You're going to get fairway grass that was converted to Zoysia for better sustainability.
5:48That's something, Kyle, that you and I, I know you weren't on the show last week, but it's been talked about for
5:55three straight weeks on this program where there's been a lot of Zoysia tests.
5:59And the last time I'm going to say it's the last episode of the year, but Zoysia has the ability and the propensity to sit a ball up.
6:08So it's very important to try to find the short grass off the tee when you end up going wayward with it.
6:14Like some of that sticky rough that we had become accustomed to at this venue over the years was somewhat removed.
6:21So it's not quite as difficult as it was.
6:24And I think that's why you got this easier scoring last season that ended up transpiring inside of the production.
6:30But, you know, my model has always picked up on this very distinctive demand where I talked about finding fairways.
6:36And then you do need to be able to scramble when you do miss these Bermuda complexes, their shaved runoff areas.
6:43Putting's very easy with the metrics. Approach play looks very easy.
6:46Those are the two things where it's about as easy as it can be historically with it.
6:51And you and I are not two people that necessarily look too much into the putting stats.
6:56And we talk about that all the time, but I did way more putting here than I normally do.
7:02And I don't want to call this a putting contest at its core.
7:06And when you hear some of the names that I've backed this week in different iterations of the market, like you're going
7:13to notice it's not just putters that ended up catapulting up my sheet.
7:17But I do think that like being able to find greens from 200 plus yards, being able to create opportunities and make
7:24putts, and then scrambling when you have 78 bunkers, eight water hazards, all of that really only enhances the difficulty that comes into play.
7:31And all of a sudden you throw tens of millions of dollars on the line.
7:36And as you talked about at the very beginning of this segment, it's no longer the staggered starting and everybody's going to
7:43be starting at the same stroke total at zero.
7:45Every single person in this field has a chance to win.
7:49And it does change some of the outlook here, I think, just because, you know, some of this lack of win equity
7:56that we've seen from players probably have to be more put back into a model and weighed, which is the difficult part to do.
8:03But that's our job, Kyle, to try to figure some of that out today.
8:07Yeah, absolutely. And it's a fun job that we do have.
8:11Let's get into the picks now. Now, obviously this week, just going to be naturally shortened episode, fewer picks, just because there's
8:18only 30 guys in the field here. You know, also just less markets in general with fewer players in the field.
8:24So I have no placement wagers this week. Spencer also has no placement wagers, which that was a difficult thing for me
8:31because the last two weeks I've actually had a good amount of success.
8:35I know I missed the show last week, but Michael Brennan for a top 20 was one of my top stands of the week.
8:42He came through with that T10 finish at the BMW.
8:45So the placement wagers not being available. I love those markets in the shortened fields, but it's just too short here at this point at 30.
8:53So we've got one pick and head to head markets.
8:56Now we'll touch on some outright plays. I'll let you have the floor to start.
9:01You're looking at an Englishman for your head to head market and someone who's had success here very recently.
9:07What are your thoughts on Fleetwood here? Yeah, I went with Tommy Fleetwood over Ludwig Oberg.
9:12If I'm being really honest, Kyle, a lot of this had to stem from there's only so many more outrights that I
9:19physically can get myself to put on Tommy Fleetwood before even like I've gotten sick of it.
9:24Like every single week, there's this output within my model that is showing value and one of the best value options on the board.
9:31And we've talked about it with Siwoo Kim throughout the year.
9:35I think Fleetwood's kind of been that secondary name that's popped up a bit.
9:39And it's funny because Oberg is technically maybe one of the third choices that I feel like I've been on quite a bit.
9:46And when I ran numbers for this tournament, there is.
9:49So I simulated this out 25,000 times in my model this week.
9:53I was trying to figure out where some of the upside, where some of the safety in a 30-man field was going to land.
10:00And Oberg had a really diverse range of outcomes.
10:03You get some of the high-end upside that entered the mix that comes from the weighted scoring in my model that's top five.
10:10The driver lands him top five. The comp courses, he was the number two overall player for me.
10:16Like all of those numbers sound really good. But there was this flip side of it where if we want to call
10:22it the elite golfers or the golfers that let's just call them sub 25 to one in the field.
10:28So you get a handful of names there. There was not a golfer that experienced as many dud performances in my simulations as Oberg did.
10:36And a lot of that stemmed from the putting, the approach play, a lot of those metrics that pushed him in the wrong direction.
10:43So like if you compare Fleetwood versus Oberg here, Fleetwood's one of the safest golfers that I have in my model.
10:50And I understand that last week. That was one of the first times in a really long time that did not come to fruition.
10:57It's been top 10 after top 10 for him.
11:00And he finishes 47th last week. I kind of viewed this as a nice buy low opportunity for Fleetwood.
11:06And I talked about not necessarily wanting to get there in the outright market or at least personally wanting to get there,
11:13even though the numbers are pushing really hard into that territory of trying to do that.
11:18But if you just took the average finish in those simulations that I ran, Fleetwood finished at a 7.51 average finish in this field out of 30 players.
11:26Oberg, as I spoke about being the large dropper for me, 14.79 just across the board when it comes to safety marks
11:33here and even just overall win equity. He was one of the worst options that I had on the board.
11:39And it's a funny answer to give because I think you're going to take a very similar stance here in a second
11:46with the play that you're going to talk about.
11:49But sharp markets like Oberg this week, and I'm not necessarily seeing it on my end.
11:54And I kind of tried to use some of that as a benefit to be able to fade him if the market suppress the pricing.
12:01So I thought Fleetwood here, it opened at plus 100 yesterday.
12:05This thing has moved into minus 115 now. I think as of us recording, you can still find that minus 115 price out there in the space.
12:13But a little bit of a mixture there of a fate of Oberg in a 30-man field and kind of just one
12:20more time going back down this well, trying to find exposure to Fleetwood.
12:24Yeah, I think that's totally fair. I also like Fleetwood.
12:27Told you this before we went live, but Fleetwood comes in third in my model this week and it's pretty close.
12:34It's kind of like a 2A, 2B situation with the guy that I'm going to talk about.
12:39Ned Zander, Shoffley, who I've actually been kind of low on Zander as of late, which did not feel great at FedEx.
12:46I mean, he didn't necessarily win or anything or didn't really hurt me a ton, but I'm sure I could have had
12:52some better betting spots if I were higher on him there and at the Rocket.
12:57And then last week, the BMW, pretty middling finish for him, but just couldn't really get anything going from a short game perspective.
13:04Lost strokes around the green and putting, but struck the ball very well.
13:08He's now on a streak of four straight events, gaining strokes ball striking on the field.
13:13And, you know, sure, Rocket Classic, maybe it's not the old Rocket Classic that Nate Lashley won when that field was super
13:20weak, but, you know, still not the greatest field there.
13:23But FedEx St. Jude, top 70 players. He was, you know, led, led, led, sorry, he was top 12 in strokes gained ball striking that week.
13:31And then also gained strokes ball striking at the Open Championship, another very strong field.
13:36So I like the form that Zander's in. And then to speak on Ludwig as well, I mean, for me, Ludwig's not necessarily my favorite player to attack.
13:44But like when you're looking at a matchup market, especially this week, you have, you know, 29 guys to attack with, you
13:51know, maybe if you're picking one player. But in general, if you have someone that you like, like for me, Alexander this
13:58week, you have 29 players to attack. Likely you're not getting odds for a lot of guys.
14:03It's going to be pretty evenly, you know, viewed players in the market in those head-to-head markets.
14:08And then they're all very good, right? Now you're at the top 30 in the PGA Tour.
14:14Obviously, Zander being the top 10 player in the world.
14:17So you're not going to get a great chance to take a stand on Zander at a great value against a bad player.
14:24So, you know, you got to pick on guys who you can sort of poke holes in.
14:29For me, for Ludwig, I'm just sort of banking on this regression that I don't necessarily want to bank on for Ludwig.
14:36Because I do think he's a top-end elite talent.
14:38But when looking at overall strokes gain T to green differential compared to long-term, and then I guess a medium time frame,
14:45which is six months or 50 rounds, and then short-term, he has the second highest differential.
14:50But I don't necessarily know if all that is extremely sticky.
14:54Like we've seen some stuff over the past year or so with some struggles with Ludwig's game.
14:59Also, I think Zander's trending. I think if both of these two were at the top of their game, I probably take Zander anyway.
15:06So I think there's a couple of narratives that I can sort of talk myself into to find this number.
15:12But bottom line, my model projects this matchup at minus 153.
15:16You can find it, you know, minus 132 out there.
15:19So for me, that's where the play comes down to here for Zander.
15:23Not necessarily a super lucrative and deep betting field for the head-to-head markets for me for a 30-man field.
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20:15All right, on to the outrights. Let's talk about, looks like we both have two outrights listed here.
20:21And you're going to kind of segue into a guy who I was just speaking about.
20:26So I'm excited to hear your take on Xander and why you like him this week.
20:30Yeah, you talked about your numbers not necessarily being as bullish as maybe the market had seemed to be in prior weeks.
20:37And I came on the show for the BMW and I talked about, and I'm going to stick to it despite the
20:44finish not necessarily being where I wanted to be with the 26.
20:48But I talked about where I felt like Xander was finally starting to hit his form with the second at the Rock at the seventh at the St.
20:56Jude. And I kind of had mentioned that I'm probably going to do this in back-to-back weeks, and that's going to be my exposure to Xander this year.
21:05I have not backed him extensively. I've kind of had a very similar take as Kyle where numbers didn't like him as much as it normally does.
21:13There was this timeframe, Kyle, where it felt like, I don't know, maybe like pre-major championships even, where every single week my
21:20model deemed there to just be tons of value on him week in and week out.
21:25And, you know, it's the very common answers that we've talked about with guys this year, and it just didn't come to fruition.
21:32And then wins a major, wins a second one has kind of gotten like that monkey off his back.
21:38And this season has not been one of the brightest from him.
21:42But I didn't know where the numbers were going to land.
21:45You know, like historically Eastlake is one of those venues that he has found high-end success.
21:50We've seen it over and over again with the way that he produces on this board.
21:55And even if you just look and you compare his score, and I understand some of those tournaments are with staggered starts,
22:02but if you just take his score for the week, which very common Xander answer, don't know where you sit on the
22:09actual leaderboard and just produce a total. There are some first place finishes in there if you just look at where he ended up landing on the board.
22:17But proper price for me, which is what I found really interesting, was 11.36 to 1.
22:22That is a number, and we've seen the number move.
22:25This opened at 16 to 1, and it's been steadily falling.
22:29And some of that are just certain syndicate places out there that are pushing a very similar narrative.
22:34And, you know, when numbers start kind of aligning across the board, specifically from certain places, you see numbers fall fast.
22:41And that's what's happening with Xander right now. He's one of the biggest movers at sharp markets.
22:46He's one of the biggest mover at any market.
22:49He's kind of just moving across the board with it.
22:52But if you can get this at 12 to 1 or higher, and the higher you can get this, the more value
22:59you're going to be able to find on it.
23:01I just thought it was a very interesting return that my model ended up finding on this because you're essentially looking at
23:08Scotty, who's about 4 to 1 being proper in my model.
23:11Xander, we'll call it 11, 11.5. Fleetwood, which is the outlier every single week, which I decided not to do, which is 14.5.
23:19And then nobody else is sub 20 to 1 at that point.
23:22So I'm just trying to pick a spot here with Xander to where I'm hoping, or at least I was hoping when
23:29I grabbed them early on in the week, that there was this buy low opportunity.
23:34And the market seems to have reacted in a very similar way to where it agrees at this point.
23:40And the numbers are not going to be as advantageous as they were on a Monday morning on this.
23:45But yeah, I mean, I think if you can get 12 to 1 or higher, there's still value here to be had on Xander.
23:53And I give this response, Kyle, with like, there's three players in my model in total that ended up being a positive value for me.
24:01Like, that's kind of what sometimes happens in a 30-man field.
24:04You talked about it on the matchup side of the equation.
24:07It's really difficult on some of these spots. There's a lot more boom or bust in a no-cut tournament.
24:13And I thought my numbers kind of aligned in a very similar way here in the outright market to where I'm just
24:20going to pick and choose a few opportunities. And Xander's one of them for me, which I like that we are aligned
24:27there, even if yours comes from a matchup and mine seems to come from an outright here.
24:32To be honest, the more I look at it and the more I hear you talk about it, and I just looked
24:39and I see almost a 12.5 to 1 out there, I will also be adding Xander to my card, especially at that number.
24:46I didn't see that one earlier. Maybe it moved a little bit, or maybe I just missed that book out there.
24:52But that's a number that I like as well.
24:55Like I mentioned, Xander's top three in my model this week.
24:59Scotty is hogging a lot of win equity, so that's going to do some damage there.
25:03But for me, I thought it was difficult. I mean, obviously, I'm going to talk about two guys in this price range,
25:10but I thought it was even difficult to feel great about certain guys in price ranges from the 20 to 30 range.
25:17Just because for me, I do have Scotty, like I said, taking up a lot of that win equity, and then just
25:24a natural perspective of having only 30 guys in the field.
25:27The market is shifting towards kind of buttoning that range up as well.
25:31But so at 12 to 1, I like Xander at 12 to 1 or 12.5 to 1 almost, probably more than both
25:38of the guys that I'm about to give out.
25:41So I'm adding Xander to the card as well, make it official for me.
25:45So I'll just piggyback off that. My next pick, though, is going to be Chris Godrup.
25:50He's about 25, 26.5 to 1 out there. The issue with Chris Godrup and why I don't love this bet is because
25:57I think that he's getting a bit of a boost or a bit more of an increase on price tag here that
26:04you're paying for him because of one, the small field, but also because of his finish last week.
26:09And what I saw from him last week is not something I typically love.
26:13Like Chris Godrup, we know he can get streaky with the putter and he can make him and win tournaments.
26:20He can beat anybody when he's on. But he gained a ton of strokes putting in around the green last week that sort of led to that.
26:28So I feel like you're paying a premium amount of price for something that I don't really want to bet on.
26:34Again, I don't want to bet on Chris Godrup having strong short game success and scrambling like crazy and saving a bunch of strokes and chipping in.
26:43I want to bet on him being a top five ball striker in the field.
26:47And then hopefully the putter getting hot. And I feel like that the market doesn't respect as much as someone who gets
26:54a top finish because of a good short game.
26:57So that's the one downside to betting Godrup. But nonetheless, my model restricts what the inputs can tell you on a per week recent form basis.
27:05Like if someone has a crazy putting spike week, it only allows that to be a positive to a certain extent.
27:11So with all those things and all those, I guess, gates being put on Chris Godrup, he still grades out very well.
27:18He's inside the top seven for me this week in my model.
27:22So I like Chris Godrup. I'll give out my second play.
27:25I guess not my third play that I piggybacked off Xander with you.
27:29And I'll let you close it out here. I'm going to go back to Hideki Matsuyama.
27:34Obviously bet him a couple weeks ago. Didn't come through, but he played well at the St.
27:40Jude. I mean, last week at the BMW, he didn't play all that great.
27:44But again, he does what Hideki can do at times.
27:47Struggled with the short game, struggled with putting, but still struck it well.
27:51Gained on approach and off the tee. Hideki, outside of last week with that T28 at the BMW, T7, T7, T5, T3, and then back-to-back T14 finishes.
27:59So, I mean, that's probably baked into the price a little bit as well.
28:04But also, you just can understand that Hideki is obviously in good form right now.
28:08So I like Hideki once again this week. He's at about 31 to 1 or 30 to 1.
28:14So I like that number there for Hideki. Let's round it out here with your pick and then we'll get into a special segment from our sponsor.
28:22But before we do that, you have one more outright pick to get.
28:26Yeah, I ended up taking Tom Kim and you can shop around and I think you can still find this number in the 50s.
28:34I got it at 55 to 1. Proper for me is 46.5, give or take on what the right number is there.
28:40So we're not talking about a ton of value on the surface.
28:44It's, I mean, what are we looking at there?
28:47A little less than a half of a percent of an edge that my model seems to have.
28:52But as I talked about at the beginning, there's not a ton of golfers that were positive for me with the way that I ran numbers.
29:00And Tom Kim was kind of one of those large climbers for me in all iterations of the market of how I was trying to find.
29:08And I think you could make a really good argument here that maybe he works better as a top 10.
29:15Maybe he's somebody that you can bet in a matchup.
29:18There's a lot of different matchups out there throughout the space where I thought a lot of them made sense.
29:24Like I took him specifically. It's not one that I talked about on the show, but for anybody who's made it this
29:31far, I'll give it on the program here. I took Tom Kim over Jacob Bridgman at minus 120.
29:36I thought Tom Kim over Ryan Gerrard made sense.
29:39You know, he's against Woodland in a matchup where that one I don't love quite as much, but I still think that there's value on that bet.
29:47Like just across the board in a lot of those areas I found there to be value.
29:52And then if you look at some of the over-unders for him of where he's going to finish, I've seen it at
29:59about 17 and a half over-under of where the mark is.
30:03My model had an average finish for him of 16.10.
30:06So if you can get that 17 and a half number of the over-under, you could be getting about a spot and
30:13a half of a difference there, which is one of the more substantial marks that I can find in my sheet for what I thought was fair.
30:21So as I said, like, look, I'm probably not as high as you are, Kyle, on Scotty Shuffler's win equity.
30:27Like I would be very curious to hear the number for you and compare it to mine.
30:32Like I would assume you're probably based off of how you talked about it.
30:37I mean, you might be 10% higher than me.
30:39Like I have 23, 23.26%. Yeah, I'm at 29.9%.
30:42Yeah, I mean, that's a substantial difference. That's a really big move.
30:46And like the market would be more aligned to where you are.
30:50If you look at any of the sharp books, you know, I mean, you're pushing 28 to 30%.
30:55And then if you look at some of the square books that are going to just be more a whole percentage there,
31:02that thing can really stretch out into the 30-something percent range.
31:05And somewhere in there is probably where it's fair.
31:08But like for me, when my number on Scotty is ever so slightly lower than where the market seems to be, and
31:15I thought there was a decent hold percentage across the board, like you're not going to be able to find too many opportunities.
31:22And for me, I talked about not necessarily wanting to do the Fleetwood Xander route.
31:27I thought there were other ways to try to get exposure to Fleetwood.
31:31So I ended up landing with Tom Kim here.
31:33He was a top 12 projected win equity golfer in my model.
31:37Slips ever so slightly with some of the marks if you want to run this for just like pure upside and nothing else.
31:44But a lot of that stems from eighth in my model for weighted strokes gain total, fifth in my model for weighted
31:51last 24 strokes gain total, tenth in my model for weighted tee to green.
31:55That's really like the high-end marks that are pushing him up.
31:59The downside comes from some of like the comp course metrics, similar driving, similar approach, similar putting.
32:04Like he drops a little bit in those areas, but I think he's worth a shot here.
32:09And as I kind of said at the beginning of this, there's probably better ways to play him than purely to bet him to win this golf tournament.
32:18But, you know, whether that's in the matchup like I talked about or something else.
32:22But I think Tom Kim for me is probably one of my favorite values on the board.
32:28And if we just talk about DFS, he's a name I'm going to have a lot of exposure to and somebody that
32:34I'm kind of trying to find a way to pair with Scotty and pair with some of those options.
32:40So yeah, Tom Kim for me will be the name that you kind of hear a lot from me this week on.
32:47Yeah, I've been on Kim pretty significantly. My model has liked him.
32:51I obviously bet him at the open. Missed the cut.
32:54Bet him at the Wyndham, though. That one went pretty well.
32:57I like Tom Kim. I actually like him in a round one matchup as well.
33:02So I didn't mention that one on the podcast because I haven't researched it.
33:06Just ran the model on the round one numbers.
33:09But my model certainly likes Tom Kim as well.
33:12But let's get over to the DraftKings segment. We're going to give away one of our favorite plays over on DraftKings.
33:18We did talk about a couple of outrights. So you can use those as well.
33:23You can carry it on over. Or if you have a different mention, feel free to do that as well.
33:29But what is your top DraftKings play of the day?
33:32I'm going to give one of the more ridiculous things that anybody's ever heard me say on this show.
33:38I've never tried to dive into a market that is this sort of an area.
33:43And everybody who hears this will kind of get an understanding of what I'm talking about here.
33:48But I'm going to say, and I understand where it's at, but I'm going to say Scotty Scheffler over Rory McIlroy.
33:54Um, my numbers are really low on Rory this week, and I wasn't anticipating that when this started.
34:00I viewed this as Eastlake is a venue where Rory has found high end success before.
34:05And we now have gotten some form from him coming in from the BMW, where it feels like a really nice spot
34:12to potentially just buy high on him of what he's produced.
34:15But I kind of viewed it as the opposite.
34:18Rory for me was the worst value I had on the board.
34:21I keep talking about outright numbers of what I had fair, but I think this one is a really good conversation here with Rory.
34:29And I understand this is going to be the lowest number that anybody's going to mention on him on any podcast that you listen to.
34:37But I had him as the sixth favorite. I mean, so you're talking about about an 8% difference of win equity of
34:43where the market has them versus where I have him.
34:46And when you can stretch that number out so much, like even though I'm lower on Scotty, you can kind of figure
34:53out where that discrepancy comes into play. So I'm going to say Scotty Scheffler here over Rory.
34:58And I think that's probably a way to end this show after talking about a lot of underdogs and a lot of
35:05long shots throughout the year to just go chalk at the very top against Rory McIlroy.
35:10I will say two things. One, you will be permanently entertained betting those two guys.
35:15I mean, watching those two duke it out is always fun.
35:18And we haven't really seen a lot of times for these guys to play.
35:23Rory hasn't been really been playing all that much.
35:25And a lot of times books don't even offer these two head to head.
35:30I mean, I'm sure they have sporadically, but I haven't seen it consistently at least, or at least at a number where I'm interested in betting it.
35:38So I think one, you'll be permanently entertained all week long betting those two.
35:42Two, I'm not going to lie, a little disappointed.
35:45I felt like that was the perfect time for you to hammer home one final Siwoo Kim bet.
35:51But nonetheless, I feel like Siwoo Kim's obviously tuned in to this podcast before he's, he has to have like a ring
35:57in his ear from us talking about him so much.
36:00So he knows that we love him. For me, I'm going to exit with, you know, I didn't come with Xander Shoffley
36:07as a official bet for me, but I'm going to walk out with it.
36:12Um, obviously already talked about him in the outright, but I like him, uh, for my favorite draft Kings bet of the
36:18week, top five finish for Xander, obviously only 30 guys in the field.
36:22I think he can beat 25 of them. So I like Xander this week.
36:27I'll take them for top five finish. Remember the tour championship is being played at the East Lake golf club in Atlanta, Georgia.
36:34So to our listeners in the great state of Georgia, if you're attending that event there in Atlanta, or you're looking to
36:41follow us with some of these plays, the drafting sports app is now available in all 50 States.
36:46Also drafting his game day is coming up on September 2nd, one day before my birthday.
36:51So happy birthday to me. Thank you, draft Kings.
36:54So you'll want to download the app, sign up soon.
36:57Don't forget to use promo code action network. When you sign up, that's going to do it for us on today's episode.
37:04And that's going to do it for us on the season.
37:07It's been fun. Spence, obviously I already mentioned, appreciate doing this with you.
37:11I learned a lot from you. I enjoy talking golf with you.
37:15Look forward to hopefully doing it again next year.
37:18Um, but hopefully you also enjoyed your time on the golf betting podcast this year.
37:22I did. This was one of the highlights of my season.
37:26It was, I loved hearing from action to be able to do this with you.
37:30And when they told me at the time they asked me to do a show, I obviously said, yes, I will always
37:37say yes to anything that action network asks me to do.
37:40And when they told me that I was doing it with you, I was very excited.
37:45Um, for me, it's very, it's fun to be able to go on a show with somebody who runs a model of their own on the backend.
37:54And I think it's added for a season long and a season filled with a lot of conversations between us where you
38:00and I can run numbers, do it similarly, do it differently and come up with the same answer or the different answer.
38:07And I think that is what's been the best for me on this show.
38:12And I hope everybody listening has had a good time with that also to where, you know, there are a lot of
38:18ways to handicap a board and there is a lot to talk about as you do it.
38:24And, um, there's not really any people Kyle that, that do it better than you do.
38:29And it was a pleasure to be able to do this with you this season.
38:33So, uh, fingers crossed that I get the call from action to be able to do it with you guys again next year.
38:40But, uh, thank you for everybody who has made this a part of their weekly listening process.
38:45We wouldn't be able to do the show without you guys.
38:49Yeah. So now I would be remiss without thanking our typical normal host, Mike Calabrese, who went down with a illness.
38:55I believe he said it was a stomach bug.
38:58Last message I saw from him, he said he was in the blue tent chugging power raid, trying to recover.
39:04Um, so yeah, hopefully Mike feels better. Obviously you could not have done this without him.
39:09He absolutely crushes it as a host every single week.
39:12Got David Payne behind the glass as our producer.
39:15So thank you all for tuning in this year.
39:18Hopefully we'll see you again next year. Uh, but that's gonna do it for the action network golf podcast, all PGA season long.
39:25Make sure please leave us some five-star ratings and reviews on wherever you watch your podcast.
39:30As I mentioned at the top, the action network podcast will be going full NFL going forward.
39:35So stay tuned for that. Plenty of great betting analysis content to come over there.
39:40So for Spencer Aguiar, I'm Kyle Murray, and we will see you next time.
39:44Action network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24 seven at 1-800-GAMBLER.
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