2026 NFC Betting Preview | Part 2
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 43 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 27, 2026
Published
Thu, August 27, 2026
32
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Jordan LoveDak PrescottJalen HurtsBen JohnsonCaleb WilliamsCeeDee LambChristian WatsonDavid MontgomeryDeVonta SmithGeorge PickensIsiah PachecoJahmyr GibbsJared GoffJayden Daniels
Player analysis
Player insights
Ben Johnson
NegativeRole850:05
The source notes Ben Johnson, 'one of the best offensive coordinators in the league,' is no longer with the Lions and has been replaced by Drew Petzin, who 'was a good hire, but he's not Ben Johnson,' indicating a downgrade in offensive scheme quality.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveProjection72:02
Caleb Williams showed improvement in his second season under Ben Johnson's offense, with better accuracy and down-to-down consistency; his adjusted sack rate decreased significantly, indicating improved protection and decision-making, though the source notes he still has room to improve in accuracy and consistency.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection18:00
Was not healthy most of last season; the source expects the Cowboys to be even better now that he is healthier; part of the source's favorite wide receiver trio with Dak Prescott and Ryan Flournoy.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveRole64:24
Wide receiver could benefit from more stability and set-in-stone roles under LaFleur's potential offensive evolution; source hopes increased role clarity will unlock his potential.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection18:00
Ranked as a perennial seventh or eighth best quarterback; has finished in top 10 DVOA six of seven years but typically ranks sixth to tenth; the source believes if the Cowboys offense takes a leap to top-five, Dak could be in the MVP mix; currently around 14-to-1 MVP odds but should be top-five; the source would lean over 8.5 wins if buying the Cowboys.
Insight pageNegativeInjury750:11
The source identifies injury risk as a factor that could affect the Cowboys' division chances, noting 'there's always a chance of injuries, right? Like, Dak could get hurt,' as part of the broader discussion of why the NFC East division winner may not require 11-12 wins.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeDepth Chart900:14
The source notes Montgomery's departure from the Lions and replacement with Pacheco, who 'is not in Kansas City for a reason' and has 'zero explosiveness,' representing a downgrade in the backfield.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
NegativeRole5:00
With A.J. Brown traded to the Patriots, Smith must step up as the true number one receiver; the concern is whether he can hold up for 17 games with his slight frame and whether he can beat man coverage, not just sit in zone as he did as a number two option.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveProjection18:00
Had a huge breakout last year for the Cowboys; expected to be good again this year; it's another contract year for him, which could provide additional motivation.
Insight pageIsiah Pacheco
NegativeProjection834:01
The source criticizes Pacheco as a replacement for Montgomery, stating 'Pacheco is not in Kansas City for a reason' and has 'zero explosiveness,' and notes he's 'hurt now and not any good,' making him a liability in the Lions backfield.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
NegativeUsage900:21
The source notes Gibbs 'got exposed a little bit as a pass blocker last year at times' and expects to see 'more of that when he's got to be on the field a little bit more,' suggesting pass-blocking liability will be exposed with increased snaps.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeProjection7:00
Ranked 15th in quarterback rankings; has finished higher than 10th in offensive DVOA only once in five years with the Eagles despite having the number one offensive line, A.J. Brown, DeVontae Smith, and Saquon Barkley for much of that stretch; passing DVOA has been lower than overall DVOA; the offense was ranked 16th in offensive rankings this year.
Insight pageNegativeRole750:15
The source notes the Eagles' offense is 'just not fixed' as a concern heading into the season, suggesting uncertainty around the quarterback's supporting cast and offensive scheme despite the team winning the division.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeRole850:38
The source identifies interior offensive line pressure as a major concern for Goff, noting 'Sacks' interior pressure bothers Goff as much as any quarterback in the NFL' and 'he's not very mobile,' which will be exacerbated by offensive line questions at center (Mays injured, relying on Drew Scruggs) and guards.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeProjection27:32
The source expresses uncertainty about Daniels' fantasy outlook, stating 'I don't really know that we know what to make of him right now' and 'I just don't know. We learned a lot about him in this offense, but it's a one man show,' suggesting limited confidence in projecting his performance in a new offensive system with coordinator changes.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveRole64:24
Wide receiver could benefit from more stability and set-in-stone roles under LaFleur's potential offensive evolution; source hopes increased role clarity will unlock his potential.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection67:35
Source is bullish on Jordan Love as a quarterback, noting the Packers have a stable floor as an organization with Love and coach Matt LeFleur; however, source cautions against investing futures on the team right now due to missing Micah Parsons and Tucker Craft, but expects the team to be better later in the season when those players return.
Insight pageNegativeRole70:23
Jordan Love does not have a good quality offensive line this year, breaking a streak where he has always had a good quality line in Green Bay; the Packers' offensive line has ranked 7th to 13th for at least half a decade, but this year represents a departure from that stability.
Insight pageNegativeProjection70:56
All three Jordan Love years have produced a top-six offense under Matt LaFleur; the Packers' offense has maintained top-11 offensive DVOA every single season under LaFleur across seven years, establishing a floor of consistent offensive production despite current roster challenges.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeRole64:15
Running back faces potential suspension; source expresses questions surrounding his availability and role in the Cowboys offense.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeMatchup70:53
Justin Jefferson faces a shutdown rookie cornerback in Week 1 against the Packers; the source sarcastically notes 'Good luck, Justin Jefferson in week one' when referencing the Packers' new rookie cornerback coverage assignment, suggesting a challenging matchup for the Vikings receiver.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
NegativeRole5:00
Drafted by the Eagles to replace A.J. Brown; the question is whether he can get on the field and make a difference as a rookie; Eagles skill position ranks dropped from 1st last year to 10th this year, a significant drop attributable to the A.J. Brown trade.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveProjection36:00
The source uses Nabers as an example of a potential big-play receiver in the Giants' underdog scenario, imagining a late-game situation where 'Dart scrambling around and just like chucks it up Yolo ball between three defenders and somehow healthy Malik neighbors comes down with it,' suggesting confidence in his ability to make contested catches in high-leverage moments.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveRole64:24
Wide receiver could benefit from more stability and set-in-stone roles under LaFleur's potential offensive evolution; source hopes increased role clarity will unlock his potential.
Insight pageRyan Flournoy
PositiveRole18:00
Part of the source's favorite wide receiver trio with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb; the source believes the Cowboys can make a significant leap with this group.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
PositiveProjection834:14
The source projects LaPorta for a strong season under new offensive coordinator Drew Petzin, noting he 'should be back' and is 'important in the red zone' and 'important on third downs.' Goff has a 138 quarterback rating when throwing to LaPorta, and Petzin's track record with tight ends (Trey McBride in Arizona) suggests LaPorta will benefit from the scheme fit.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveUsage34:56
The source projects the Giants will run the football frequently under new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy and staff, stating 'They're probably going to run the football a lot' and 'They did already last year and they could get even better there,' suggesting increased carries and usage for the running back position.
Insight pageSean Ryan
NegativeRole64:00
Sean Ryan is the Packers' center; the source characterizes him as 'not a great center,' indicating concern about the position's quality.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveRole27:06
The source is bullish on Diggs as a receiver in Washington's offense, stating 'I'm a Stefan Diggs guy' and noting he's a legitimate receiving option alongside Terry McLaurin, though expressing uncertainty about the running back and tight end depth on the roster.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveRole27:06
The source identifies McLaurin as a legitimate receiving option in Washington's offense, paired with Stefan Diggs as the team's primary pass-catching weapons despite concerns about the offensive line and overall roster construction.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection917:13
The source cites McBride's success under Drew Petzin in Arizona as evidence that Petzin is 'a tight ends guy,' using this as support for projecting LaPorta to have a strong season under the same coordinator.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveRole67:49
Described as the X factor and the guy that unlocked the whole thing offensively for the Packers last year; source notes he was so good and looks like he'll be back early, but the key question is what version of Tucker Craft returns and how long until he is that version of himself.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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2:36This is the NFL Off-Season Divisional Preview Part 4.
2:38I'm Stucky joining me today is my fellow co-host, Brandon Anderson.
2:42Excited to talk NFL with you. This is the final part.
2:45We will talk NFC East and NFC North. Two very intriguing divisions.
2:49If you missed it, I did two AFC episodes.
2:52One with Anthony DeBundo and fellow colleague Evan Abrams.
2:54And the other NFC episode, which just came out with Sean Kerner.
2:58Brandon, how goes it? I hear you're going to have a hot take for us in one of these divisions.
3:04Yeah, I actually am looking long shots on both these divisions.
3:08It's going well. We've been clogging up the Action Network feed.
3:11You and I are fighting for airtime right now.
3:14I ranked everything under the sun. Quarterbacks, offensive lines, offense, defense, everything like that.
3:18So, yeah. We're itching for real football. None of this week three preseason stuff.
3:23Let's get some real players out there and do the thing.
3:26Yeah, I can't wait for the games to actually start.
3:29So let's dive right in. We'll start. Let's start with the NFC East.
3:33In the NFC East, the Eagles are the favorite.
3:36They're plus 120 to win the division. Cowboys up next around two to one.
3:40Commanders five to one. Giants six to one. The Eagles have won the division in back-to-back years.
3:45And that hadn't happened in the NFC East since, I believe, 2003 and 2004 when the Eagles also did it.
3:52Eagles win total sitting at 10.5, juiced to the under.
3:55They won 11 games last year. Pretty fortunate to get there.
3:58This was a completely broken offense. They won 11 games, but they won eight and four in one possession games.
4:04They would go quarters, halves, without seemingly a first down.
4:07Every single week, this offense would just go into an epic drought.
4:11They were also pretty fortunate from an injury perspective.
4:14They've been pretty healthy the past two years if you look at adjusted games lost to injuries.
4:19So, you know, maybe that injury bug comes for them this year.
4:23But the main problem last year was their offense.
4:25I mean, they had the highest three and out rate in the league.
4:30That's pretty stunning for a team that won 11 games.
4:33They had the fewest screens, the fewest rollouts, the fewest throws to the middle of the field.
4:38Their secondary, they never threw to their secondary read.
4:41It was, you know, 20th in play action, 27th in motion, 28th in pace.
4:45Everything that you don't want to see with an offense, they checked the box.
4:49So what did they do? They brought in Sean Mannion to fix the offense.
4:54That's the old band-aid that everyone goes to. It's like, all right, let's go to the McVay-Shanahan offense.
4:59You're going to see more under center, more multi-tight end sets, more outside zone.
5:03And we'll see if Mannion, his first time as an offensive coordinator, can fix this.
5:08The offense also faced one of the easiest defensive schedules in the NFL last year, and they still struggled immensely.
5:14So we'll see how much of an upgrade that can be.
5:18They did lose A.J. Brown, traded him to the Patriots.
5:21Everyone knew that was coming before it did. So they drafted Makai Lemon, and we'll hope Devontae Smith steps up as that true number one.
5:28Also brought in Devontae Wicks. The defense, not much of a question.
5:32This defense is very, very, very good. One of the best coordinators in the NFL.
5:37The personnel is great. They traded for Jonathan Godard, although he's hurt.
5:41Seems to always be hurt. He probably will be hurt to start the year.
5:45So that's something of note. And it looks like they're going to have Cooper Dejean play safety and base, which I think is smart safety.
5:53He's probably the weakest position on this defense. But the defense is very good, and the defense was very good last year,
5:59and they faced a difficult schedule, unlike the offense.
6:02So I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this Eagles team.
6:06If you look at their schedule, they host a lot of tough teams.
6:10So their home games are going to be really important.
6:13They host the Rams, the Seahawks, the Texans, the Steelers, the Colts, and the Panthers.
6:17But a couple of the main contenders in the NFC.
6:20What are you seeing with the Eagles this year?
6:23Yeah, one thing I like about the schedule. So we know there's like the three variable games, right?
6:29That separate you from the rest of the division.
6:31So you're the first place team. You get the three first place variable games.
6:36For them, that's the Panthers, the Bears, and the Steelers.
6:39You could do much worse on a first place schedule than getting those three teams as your pull there.
6:45So not so bad. I don't even know that there's really a ton that needs to be said about the defense.
6:51That's how good they are. Zach Bond, Jihad Campbell.
6:54I'm not the linebacker's guy, but huge advantage strategically there.
6:57Like you said, safety, I think, is the weak spot.
7:00So I don't mind moving Cooper over there. But just all the talent up front.
7:05Probably a healthier year from Jalen Carter. And I don't know that this is the number one defense, but I think it's
7:12just a very high, very safe floor. So that is going to give the team a floor.
7:17That's going to give them, you know, put them in every game, basically.
7:21You got to, you know, the whole conversation with this team is the offense, right?
7:25Like what in the world do we even do with Jalen Hurts at this point?
7:30In my quarterback rankings, he was the guy that I had the worst time.
7:34Like every time I'd go back and rank and kind of shift things around, Jalen Hurts is moving again somewhere.
7:41I ended up with him at 15, just kind of right stuck in the middle.
7:45I ended up with this offense, right stuck in the middle.
7:49I had them 16th in my offensive rankings. You know that Jalen Hurts in now five years with the Eagles has only
7:55had one year where he's finished higher than 10th in DVOA offensively.
7:59That's with your number one offensive line in football.
8:02That's with A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, Saquon Barkley for a lot of that stretch.
8:06Passing DVOA has been lower than that. It's not been a great offense.
8:10Like we know how good the Eagles have been.
8:13I know Jalen Hurts has all the wins. I know how great he was in the Super Bowl, but it has not been that great.
8:21It's not been the strength of the team. It's been a defense team.
8:25The rushing attack got a lot worse last year.
8:28I think the big question is how much of all the bad, no denying it was bad.
8:33Everyone agrees it was bad. How much is all Kevin Petulo's fault?
8:36Is it all Kevin Petulo's fault? Is it some Jalen Hurts' fault?
8:40How much can we fix with Sean Mannion? I do think that is a nice style that fits Hurts in some ways
8:47with some of the play action stuff. But we see them go out and bring in these middle of the field weapons
8:54and all this talk about middle of the field attacking.
8:57Oh, that's super great. You're going to convince your quarterback that that's an area he can throw the football to.
9:03And we haven't really seen that over the years.
9:06And I think it really matters, too. Like you said, losing A.J.
9:10Brown, it's that cascading effect. Like now Devontae Smith, we like him.
9:13But is he going to hold up for 17 games with that slight frame?
9:18And is he going to hold up as the guy that has to go beat Mann now, not just sit in the
9:24zone and be the guy for some of the matchups?
9:27And Dontavian Wicks, are you going to ever actually use all the talent and put everything together?
9:33Makai Lemon, can you get on the field and make a difference there?
9:37We did skill position ranks. Eagles were number one last year.
9:40They dropped a 10th this year. That's a significant drop because that's the difference A.J.
9:45Brown makes there. I don't love the tight end grouping.
9:48Very samey. A lot of pass catchers. I like they brought in Johnny Munt to add some blocking, but just not a ton of versatility out there necessarily.
9:56So yeah, I'm skeptical, to say the least, about the offense.
10:00Let me ask you this. Offensively, would you be more surprised if I told you the Eagles finished top seven in DVOA
10:07or if they finished 20th or worse offensively? Top seven.
10:10I think so. I think I can see the bottom fall out easier than I can see if things really hit the home run.
10:17And that's the scary part with this team. Look, yeah.
10:20Smith was a very, very good number two. But like you mentioned, the trickle down effect.
10:25Can he be a number one? And what can Lemon do as a rookie?
10:29Stowers might not be ready. The camp reports haven't been great.
10:33You were going to bring him in as like a hybrid tight end slash wide receiver because you're most likely going to use more two tight end sets.
10:42So the offensive line has to stay healthy. And by the way, you lost one of the most respected offensive line coaches in the NFL and Jeff Stoutland.
10:50And so we'll see what that impact is. But the O-line has to stay healthy.
10:55And yeah, I'm skeptical and hurts. It's funny you say that with the rankings.
10:59Like if you rank him too high, then you'll have people saying like, have you watched him?
11:04And then if you rank him too low, you'll have people be like, well, do you won the Super Bowl?
11:11Did you see him in the Super Bowl? Did you see him in the playoffs?
11:15So like right in the middle makes a lot of sense.
11:19I do think that there's probably going to be growing pains early.
11:22I talked with DeBundo about this, a early week one look.
11:26It's taking a little bit of money, but I still like it as the commanders Eagles under.
11:31Not sure that the Eagles offense will be functioning at a high level right off the bat.
11:36And I'm still skeptical. You know, the defense is going to ball.
11:40And then we'll get to Washington. The offensive line situation in Washington is not great, especially at center and left tackle.
11:46And then they're going to have a new coordinators might run some Flores stuff.
11:51So yeah, I think that that under makes sense to me week one.
11:55But let's move on to, yeah, for what it's worth, I project for the Eagles win total 10 and a half juice to the under.
12:02I'm around 10. Yeah. Schedule's not overly difficult. So, you know, it's a below average schedule in terms of difficulty.
12:09Can I give you a couple of stats real quick on the Eagles?
12:13Yeah. Seven and one to the under since 2010 when they're at a 10 plus win total.
12:18So that would apply here. And here's a stat for the Eagles and actually four of our eight teams today.
12:24Returning head coach with a new offensive coordinator, 60 and 33 to the under since 2015.
12:2965% to the under is from plus EV analytics.
12:32So that is Philly. It's also Washington. And when we get to the next division, it's the Bears and the Lions too.
12:39So like you said, that's the fix all right.
12:41Just fire the offensive coordinator. We'll get the new guy in.
12:45Turns out that takes a little time and that doesn't always go so great for you.
12:50Yeah. Also what's baked into that you have, which might not be applicable here, but I agree with that.
12:55Oh, that's going to fix everything. But sometimes what could be in that is that you lose a really good offensive coordinator.
13:02Like to the Lions last year when they lost Ben Johnson.
13:06Good stuff there. Let's move on to the Dallas Cowboys.
13:09Dallas Cowboys about two to one to win the division.
13:12Their win total sitting at nine and a half at DraftKings.
13:15Cowboys finished last year seven, nine and one. They were great on offense.
13:19It was top 10 offense. And they were arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
13:24But the Cowboys, unlike the Eagles, right? We don't have any.
13:27It's the complete opposite. It's like, all right, the offense is going to cook.
13:32And basically, they just are going to run it back.
13:35And the main question with this offense is, do you stay healthy pretty much?
13:39And if they do, they're going to be good.
13:42So all the questions surrounding the Cowboys is, how much do you believe their defense can improve?
13:47So they bring in a Fangio guy. They bring in Parker, coach the DBs with the Eagles.
13:52And I do think schematically, that's a huge upgrade from Eberflus and his outdated scheme that just didn't fit this roster.
13:59And smartly, you don't always say that about the Cowboys.
14:02They went out and tried to improve the defense.
14:05Caleb Downs, high draft pick, and shows you the importance of the nickel position, especially in a Fangio defense.
14:10They draft Caleb Downs. That's probably where he's going to be.
14:14Right off the bat, as a rookie, they bring in some other defenders trying to – and you've got to remember, they brought in Quentin Williams.
14:22Their run defense improved after they brought him in last year.
14:25You know, they trade for Grishon Gary. You're hoping that – they bring in Kobe Duran at corner.
14:31And you're hoping that Parker can maybe influence Duran Bland, who was kind of coached under – he had that one year
14:38where he was coached under Al Harris, who's now with the Bears.
14:41And the Bears did this last year where he got a bunch of turnovers and he was just really aggressive.
14:48But he is – can be beat badly. So we'll see what impact Parker can have on this secondary.
14:53And then they bring in Jalen Thompson, I thought was a good signing, to improve the safety room.
14:59So the question here with Dallas is just like, where do they have to get to to be considered a Super Bowl contender?
15:06Is it – if this defense is 15th in the NFL, which would be a big jump, because I think per DBOA they were dead last last year.
15:15So that would be a big jump with Scheme.
15:17And it's not like you brought in Miles Garrett.
15:20Like, I think they improved their roster. There's still some deficiencies here and questions in the secondary.
15:26But if they can just get to like 20th, then I think they're live for the division.
15:31And, you know, this team can win 10 games because their offense, if it stays healthy, is going to be very good.
15:38And their special team should be good. What are your thoughts on the Cowboys coming into this year?
15:43Are you a buyer of their defensive improvements or are you still hesitant?
15:47Yeah, I am hesitantly buying, I guess, if I can say yes to both of those.
15:52I buy what's happening with Dallas. Like, the defense has to be better, right?
15:56Because you can't get any worse from already worse than the NFL.
16:00They were also worse than a red zone defense.
16:03And we know that that's usually not so sticky year to year.
16:07So even getting, like you said, the 20th or something around league average, that's huge.
16:11That's a huge jump from being – the offense, we know.
16:15The offense is going to be good if it's healthy enough.
16:18Just getting to like just don't kill us every single game.
16:21And then what about the knock-on effects of that?
16:24What if the defense isn't putting you in a hole all game long?
16:28That's going to help your offense. That's going to help the rest.
16:32Like, it all flows together. And now maybe you don't have like the worst field goal or field position in the league every time.
16:39You're not playing from your heels. You know as the quarterback you're forcing things a little bit.
16:45Like, I got to do this myself, man. The defense can't win it for us.
16:49We got to put up 30 to go win this thing.
16:53So I think it goes both ways there. The Christian Parker thing, I'm excited.
16:57The Fangio tree has not been great in the NFL.
17:00So sometimes it's just the guy and not the tree after that.
17:04We kind of need to see it actually work.
17:06And so the Cowboys have a weird schedule quirk where they go Giants-Washington to start the season and Giants-Washington to end the season.
17:14You're going to win those games if you're going to compete in the division and compete for bigger stuff than that.
17:20If you don't win one of those games early on, if you even go 1-1, Baltimore-Houston-Tampa-Green Bay-Philly.
17:25That's the next five games after that. If this defense isn't good right away, if they're still 25th bad right away, you're suddenly 3-4.
17:33You're 2-5. And you're digging a real hole. And we know the Eagles likely are not going to dig that sort of a hole.
17:40And now you're kind of back where you were last year.
17:44So to me, it's how good, how average can the defense get?
17:47I don't think they're going to be good or great yet, but how far can they bring them?
17:53And even though the offense isn't as interesting to talk about just because we know they're going to be good, we know they're going to be good.
18:01Can they be great? Can they be elite? There's a big difference between being the ninth best offense versus the fourth best or the first or second offense.
18:10And last year, I think we gave a lot of credit to the passing game, George Pickens' huge breakout.
18:16It was Clayton Adams. It was the run game, the creativity.
18:19That's what really broke out. And it raised the floor for them.
18:23The passing game, I think, is what would have to take the next step now to go from really good to something even better.
18:30I heard Nate Tice has this as his number one offense in the season.
18:34We're not going to do that unless the passing game really takes another jump now.
18:39And it can. I've been a Dak guy. I think, weirdly enough, I think Dak is this generation's Tony Romo, just like
18:46this perennial seventh or eighth best quarterback that just does all the stuff and does what you need him to do.
18:52Pickens, hopefully good again. It's another contract year for him.
18:55CeeDee Lamb, I thought, was not healthy most of last season.
18:59So maybe they're even better now. It's my favorite wide receiver trio with Ryan Flournoy there.
19:04I think they can really make a leap. But healthy Dak Prescott, top 10 DVO offense, six of seven years.
19:10But it's usually a sixth to tenth. Can this team get to fifth?
19:14Can it get to third? That's the big difference.
19:17I think if they do, I haven't gotten MVP yet.
19:20We'll have the podcast up next week in MVP.
19:23I think you can make a case Dak is the most likely NFC MVP.
19:27I don't think it's an eagle. I don't think it's coming out of the NFC North.
19:32We'll get to them. It's not going to be NFC South.
19:35And if you go through the options in the loaded division, I don't think it'll be Stafford again.
19:41We don't do back-to-back that often. And Seattle and San Fran don't really have an option.
19:46I think Dak, if this offense flies high, could actually be in the mix.
19:50I see him around 14 to 1. I think he should be a top five odds.
19:55If you like the Cowboys, that could be a way to invest.
19:59To me, I would lean over 8.5. But I don't think I want the median outcomes on this team.
20:05I think if you want to believe Dallas, you go long tails, right?
20:09You got to go in. You got to do the thing.
20:12And I know, it's been like 30 years since they've made it past the second round of the playoffs.
20:18NFC ticket, 13 to 1 at DraftKings. I think that maybe is the way to go.
20:23If you like Dallas, I think you can talk yourself into this being the second NFC favorite after the Rams.
20:29And I think if you want to buy it, you got to buy big, not just median ground.
20:35I agree. I think you want to buy the tails.
20:38I did bet some at Plus Money then to make the playoffs.
20:41I just love this now, this dual coordinator duo.
20:44Me too. Adams and Parker. But, unlike their schedule is much harder than the Eagles.
20:49Some tough games. And you're going to need that defensive improvement or you're not winning any of those games.
20:55Yeah, you don't want to be on a race to 40 in every game.
20:59Yeah, I mean, they're non-divisional road games. If you include Baltimore and Brazil, are the Ravens, Texans, Packers, Colts, Rams, and Seahawks.
21:06That's about as hard as it gets. Yeah. Let's move on to the Washington Commanders.
21:10They finished last year 5-12. We're unlucky. I mean, look, this was one of my biggest sells last year.
21:16They were like the luckiest team in NFL history two years ago.
21:20And you just look at their fourth downs and what the quarterbacks they faced and all like fumbles, everything.
21:26And then last year, it all went the other way.
21:29Everyone was healthy that they played and they were banged up.
21:32They were, I think, bottom three in adjusted games lost.
21:35They went two and five in one possession games.
21:38Their fourth downs regressed a bit. And all that luck came crashing down.
21:42And they had a disastrous season where they finished five and 12.
21:46Five to one to win the division at DraftKings.
21:49Win total sitting at seven and a half. The big news recently with the Commanders has been with their offensive line.
21:55And look, Cliff Kingsbury is out. He went to the McVay rehab.
21:59You're going to have David Blau take over the offense for the first time.
22:03I think you're going to see more, like maybe more Ben Johnson mold than a Cliff Kingsbury.
22:08But we'll see what that looks like. They also brought in a new defensive coordinator.
22:13Their defense was also a complete dumpster fire. They brought in Devontae Jones from the Flores tree.
22:18He came from the Vikings. So we'll see. Like Dan Quinn is a, he's evolved some, but he's a Carroll guy.
22:25And he's evolved from just like the Carroll cover three.
22:28But he's bringing in Devontae Jones, who comes from the Flores.
22:31How much rain does he give him? Because I think that this, with this personnel on Washington's defense, you need to be
22:38unique and just, hey, let's, all right, we're going to be a blitz heavy team.
22:43And then just try and create turnovers. Like you can't just run this out and run like quarters and then like, because you just don't have the personnel.
22:51They did say, okay, we're, we were way too old last year, which I think was smart on defense.
22:57And they basically purged everyone that was over 30, you know, Latimore, Wagner, Miller.
23:01They're, and this is on both sides of the ball.
23:05Ertz, Samuel, Goldman, Day. I mean, every Martin, Holmes, Eckler, Jones, everyone I'm naming was 30 plus.
23:10Now the one mistake that they might've made, and they should have had 30 as the cutoff, is they way, they cut the Adish, their center.
23:18Now he got, ended up getting hurt. Maybe he doesn't get hurt.
23:22If I don't know how all that stuff works, if he doesn't leave, but they cut the Adish.
23:27As their center, it was a reliable center. Now they're going to be relying on Nick Allegretti, who's a little questionable, but he's dealing with an injury.
23:35He might not be ready to go. They now have like Julian Good-Jones in there, who's, by the way, I think he's
23:42going to, he's about to turn 30. He's like a journeyman from, so you're going to end up with like a 30 year old in there anyway.
23:51And then more importantly, you lost Laramie Tunsell to a triceps injury.
23:54And your left guard, Chris Paul, can't play. And now he doesn't have like, he's going to be sandwiched in between not
24:01Tunsell and then whatever you have at center now.
24:04And then this whole thing could completely collapse from within.
24:07They do bring in Stefan Diggs. But yes, this offensive line is extremely worrisome.
24:11The defense got younger, but personnel wise, it's still not great.
24:15This is not going to be a good defense.
24:17They brought in Amik Robertson, who's probably going to play in the nickel.
24:21Sandler still is like, I thought he was going to be a good nickel, but he can't, he can't defend the run.
24:28He's too small. And then he can be too small on the outside.
24:32He's like stuck in the middle for like really finding between like a real nickel and then being able to shine on the outside.
24:40So the defense is not going to be great.
24:42They got to just cook up blitzes and then hope that there's a schematic bump to get like to, you know, 20th best in the league.
24:50Uh, and they got to hope their, their draft pick, uh, Sonny styles can contribute, but they bring in chase on to help with the edge rust.
24:59And like I said, got younger, but still not a great defense.
25:02And I'm very concerned about this offense, mainly because who knows what you're going to get with David Blau.
25:08And then this offensive line could just completely crater.
25:11What are you seeing with the commanders? Yeah, I think we are pretty much in lockstep on this team.
25:17I share basically all of those same concerns. Offensive line.
25:20Uh, the tonsil injury happened right as I was prepping my offensive line ratings.
25:24And, uh, so I looked around the web, Brandon Thorne, offensive line expert dropped the commanders 11th to 22 after that injury.
25:31PFF had them top 20, put them in dead last after the tonsil injury.
25:36That's how big of a deal it is as like, basically the best pass protecting left tackle in the league.
25:42That's, that's a huge deal. And we just, we don't really know.
25:45Like a bad left guard. And now if you're down to your third string center, I would, I think this is, would be the worst offensive line.
25:54Uh, I think I would have them dead last.
25:57If they have like third, basically that third string center from last year, backup tackle, bad left guard.
26:02Like our offensive line is a weak link system.
26:05You have three of them next to each other.
26:08Yeah. Well, it's funny because you know, like the chiefs line has not actually been that great in recent years.
26:14And you look in, what are the names on the line?
26:17You got Nick Allegretti was a chief leftover. They couldn't wait to get rid of them.
26:22Yeah. Andrew Wiley is one of the backups. I'll probably have to play now.
26:26It's funny. You talked about this team wanting to get younger.
26:30Well, who are some of the names they're relying on?
26:33They send DJ Humphreys now to possibly play a left tackle.
26:36You got Rasul Douglas at corner who I like, but like Humphreys and Douglas, they're like a combined 75 years old.
26:43Like that's not how you get younger on this team.
26:46So just that they're trying to fill holes here, but it's like poking the fingers into the dam and like Jane Daniels.
26:53I don't really know that we know what to make of him right now because I feel like take nothing out of last year.
27:00Like I just don't know. We learned a lot about him in this offense, but it's a one man show.
27:06I like the receivers. You know, I'm a Stefan Diggs guy.
27:10He's a Vikings fan. Diggs McLaurin, I think is like a legit one too, but I'm not sure there's a real NFL
27:16running back or tight end on the roster that should be putting in big snap counts for you.
27:22I'm intrigued by David Blum, intrigued by Durante Jones longterm.
27:25I hope they get a real chance because like to me, Quinn would be probably my, I was going to bring this
27:32as a possible bet as Quinn to be the first coach fired.
27:36He's the favorite. So we already know that this is a possibility of really going sideways.
27:41I like Durante Jones from Vikings defensive backs had a lot of success there, but we've seen if you're in that Flores
27:47Zimmer type look, if you have the personnel that can get really ugly, like you can bring your crazy blitzes.
27:54And if those don't get home, you're just exposed back there.
27:57And now you got to meet Robertson and Sanders still trying to do the thing.
28:02And that's probably not going to go that way.
28:04We've seen that there. So positive for Washington, special teams, Larry Izzo, special teams coaches, all is awesome.
28:10Top nine DVOA seven straight years. So their one weakness was kicker.
28:14They brought a new kicker. That should be a strength, but I don't know if it's going to be enough to do too much for them.
28:22And here's the thing that really buried this team for me.
28:25We're doing eight teams today. This is the one team that I just, I can't find the bull case for the schedule.
28:32Look at how it starts out at Philly at Dallas, right off the bat with your brand new coordinators before you figure
28:39things out, no offensive line, then Seattle. So you're probably own a three right off the bat.
28:44Now fly across the ocean to London, play the Colts, then come back on no rest.
28:49I hate when teams do that to play the Giants, your other division opponent, then go Monday night at San Francisco.
28:55That is screaming Owen six to me. Like that is not hard to get to an Owen six last winless team at DraftKings is 14 to one.
29:04I think that could be very much in a player.
29:07I think that's probably factored into the Dan Quinn first fired thing, because if you just come out and lay an absolute
29:13egg right off the bat now, look, I was with you last year.
29:17This was my favorite under on the board. It was nine and a half last year.
29:22I played the alts all the way down. They won five.
29:26We got a little lucky because of all the injuries, but that was part of the cap.
29:31We're at seven and a half now this year.
29:34I still think there's a shot where this just goes totally sideways again, because if you start one in five, Owen six,
29:41Daniel's going to get hurt some point. I don't know how bad it will be, but he's going to pick up something.
29:47And at some point, if you are that bad already and your only good player gets hurt, you might just shut it down again.
29:55So under five and a half is plus three or five at DraftKings.
29:59I think that could be in play. They've only gone over six of the last 17 seasons there.
30:04And this is another one of those returning coach, new offensive coordinator.
30:08So that under goes again here. I just think to me, this is the one team of the podcast.
30:14I got nothing for today. I'm going to love a giant commanders head to head.
30:19We'll get to giants next, but I like them in this division where they're kind of being priced as equals Washington, even better.
30:26I had that totally flipped. I don't think these teams are equals at all.
30:30I just have a really hard time finding anything to be excited about with Washington.
30:35Yeah. And if this offensive line is a disaster, well, some of your home games, Houston, the Rams, Seattle, those aren't the
30:41defenses you want to face at home. No, they're not.
30:45With just a completely broken offensive line. So yeah, I have no interest in buying anything commanders related, only a sell candidate for me as well.
30:53All right, let's move on to the New York Giants.
30:56They are six to one to win the division.
30:58Their win total is sitting at seven and a half with juice.
31:02Their act, their win total is actually higher than the commanders.
31:06They're right. They're both right around seven and a half.
31:09This is a team that flashes as a positive regression candidate just on the surface.
31:13I mean, they had a lot of injuries. They went one in seven and one possession games.
31:19They blew five double digit leads. They were 0-2 in overtime.
31:22They lost three games leading in the final minute.
31:25I mean, just it was a very, very unlucky year.
31:28I look at fourth downs. They went 18 of 39 on fourth down.
31:32Their opponents went 16 of 22. And you went one in seven in one possession games, pretty high leverage moments.
31:38And they all pretty much went against you. So what happened?
31:41Well, you had a new coach. John Harbaugh comes in from Baltimore.
31:45And by the way, you mentioned that Washington spot against the Giants.
31:49We'll get to the Giants schedule, but Washington goes overseas, comes back to play home against the Giants.
31:54The Giants are home against the Cardinals the week before.
31:57You'd think an easy win and then just drive down, quick drive down 95.
32:02So this Giants team had, there's a decent amount of changes.
32:05You bring in where I think they upgraded. You're going to have, you know, they spent their top two draft picks on
32:12guys they think can come in and contribute right away.
32:15And Arvel Reese and Maui Noah from Miami, they're going to move to guard.
32:19So the offensive line, if healthy, is like finally starting.
32:22It'll all fall apart if Thomas gets hurt, but as always.
32:26It's finally starting to look like a far cry from those Giants offensive lines that we've seen in recent seasons that was just completely incompetent.
32:34They did lose Dexter Lawrence. They're going to have a good edge rush.
32:38They have edge rushers all over. The biggest questions on this team, to me, on the defensive side of the ball, is can their secondary come together?
32:46So their corners are still questionable. I'm intrigued by our Darius Washington.
32:50I think he should start somewhere. I think he will end up starting.
32:54Can their corners come together? And can they defend the run?
32:57You're not going to have Dexter Lawrence anymore. They could not stop the run last year.
33:02So can they improve on their run defense? You know, you're going to make a case for the Giants to win the division.
33:09A worst to first case. Yeah. You know what?
33:12I would be a little more bullish on the Giants if, without one move, because I am a hardball guy.
33:18I just think it was time, even though I'm a Ravens fan, it was just time for, I think he's a good coach.
33:25Just new voice in Baltimore. And then the Giants are going to benefit from hiring him.
33:30But Matt Nagy as the OC? Oh man, what are we doing?
33:34That's like, could sour the whole thing for me.
33:36But you're going to make a case on the Giants potentially going from worst to first, six to one, to win the division.
33:44Yeah, not just Matt Nagy, but he brought in his staff of Greg Roman and Brian Callahan.
33:49Just like the entire mix of guys. We've been trying to run and fade as fast as we can for years now.
33:56So I don't love that. I know even like, I've been very high on John Harbaugh over the years.
34:02I know there was kind of a slow souring over him in recent years.
34:06I think the big change, even with all those names, I'm not going to pretend I'm going to make a strong case for Nagy and for that staff.
34:14But I think there's a huge difference between hitting your ceiling for the Ravens and hitting a floor for the Giants.
34:21And I think that's what this team needs is an adult in the room, an adult staff in the room to come
34:28in and like drag up the floor. That's why Greg Roman, that's why Matt Nagy have had jobs for so long.
34:34That's why we know their names. Look, you're getting hired by Andy Reid to run your offense.
34:39You're getting hired by Jim Harbaugh to run your offense.
34:43These are good coaches. They're just not great coaches.
34:45That's okay. The Giants can use a good coach.
34:48We're going to bring in some quality staff here to do some things.
34:52I'm not going to pretend it's going to be innovative or great or exciting.
34:56They're probably going to run the football a lot.
34:59Okay. That's a good way to raise the floor.
35:02Your offensive line was good last year. Like you said, you got to have Andrew Thomas out there.
35:08But if he's out there, I think the line can be good again.
35:12Hopefully Scadabo stays on the field. I think they can run the football pretty well.
35:16They did already last year and they could get even better there.
35:20Now you get Jackson Dart. I don't know what I think about him, but what I like in this offense particularly is
35:27I like that he's a home run hitter. He's going to swing and miss a lot.
35:32The success rate was not great for him, but his EPA per play was pretty high because he can hit the big play down the field.
35:40You know he's going to run. You don't want him to necessarily because he might get hit and be in the blue tent again.
35:47But he's going to take some shots down there.
35:50And I think if you're looking at the underdog case of a team, can we run the ball, shorten the game, keep it close?
35:57Can we hit a few big plays a game or give us a shot down the field that like you can just
36:04imagine the four point game, Giants trailing late, Dart scrambling around and just like chucks it up Yolo ball between three defenders
36:11and somehow healthy Malik neighbors comes down with it.
36:14And you're like, oh my gosh, the Giants have done it again.
36:17You get like, we see, we know we saw this with the Brian Dable like three years ago, like this exact version of the team.
36:25So I don't mind. They just somehow go seven and one possession games.
36:29Exactly. Yeah. They're one in six and one seven.
36:32I think the last two years. And so like, I think too, we'd think about this team a lot differently if they
36:39had closed out some of those games. Those were against real opponents to those games that had all those late leads on
36:45was against like NFC North teams and against the Cowboys and the Broncos.
36:49If you're looking at Jackson Dart seven win team as an NFL rookie, which is what the numbers say this should have been.
36:57They won four, but by Pythagorean, they should have won over seven games.
37:01I think we'd feel a lot differently about this team right now.
37:04So like, I'm not going to pretend that it's a great offense.
37:08I think they just need to be good enough offensively.
37:11And I do think the defense can be pretty good.
37:14You talked about the run defense got to be better.
37:17They were dead last last year. So it has to be better than that.
37:22I think this looks like a staff that knew how bad it was.
37:26DJ reader has been enough for a long time to stop the run.
37:30That's what the man does is stop the run.
37:32Terman Edmonds, not my favorite linebacker run stopper. That's what his strength is, is getting after the run.
37:38I think Shelby Harrison, the line Arbel, at least the linebacker.
37:41I think they knew what the problem was. I've never been a Shane Bowen guy, last year's defensive coordinator.
37:47I like Denard Wilson. I think he fits this scheme a little better.
37:51And like you said, the pass rush we know is there.
37:55Abdul Kar, he looks like a superstar to me.
37:57No sacks last year, so much for him, but lots of pressures.
38:01Like all the underlying stuff looks amazing, but it didn't matter because you can just run the football all day long.
38:08You don't need to pass. So who cares about your pass rush?
38:11We're just going to beat you running the football.
38:14If you get a better run, D, can the pass rush matter a little bit better?
38:19And then the thing too, I know you know this, with John Harbaugh comes the magic of special teams.
38:25Chris Horton is here to lead you to a great special teams unit.
38:29This was a bottom 10 unit last year, and they knew it.
38:33They out and got a new punter, a new kicker, a new long snapper, two new returners.
38:38That to me is, again, an adult in the room coaching staff and a front office that said, we knew it didn't work.
38:45We value special teams. Let's make this work. We keep bringing up special teams because to me, I have this as a potential top five special teams unit.
38:54If you go bottom 10 to top five in my metrics, that alone is worth almost two points to the spread every game.
39:01That's huge. That's a huge swing. We don't pay any attention to special teams, but I think that could immediately put you
39:07in a better spot right off the bat. So the hard part here is that the schedule starts out Dallas and then at the Rams.
39:15So you're probably looking at 0-2 by what we're expecting here.
39:19Well, you're going to be back in week one and it's a home division.
39:23Exactly. Exactly. And if you want to make the case in the division, you're going to have to beat the Cowboys or the Eagles sometime.
39:31And shouldn't a home game against the Cowboys be your best chance to do that against the Cowboys defense with their new
39:37coordinator as they're trying to figure things out? And so if you beat Dallas and you lose to the Rams one and
39:44one, now you got Titans, Cardinals, that Washington game you talked about, Saints, you steal one and one.
39:50You might suddenly be four and two. You might be five and one after that mid-October.
39:55And you're like, man, the Giants? What's happening here?
39:57So to me, the division case is hard. The Eagles defense is really good.
40:02The Cowboys offense is really good. It's going to be tough.
40:05But there's enough reason to be skeptical about both of those sides with the other part of the ball.
40:11And the Giants improvement case is pretty easy. Like the over here, I think makes a lot of sense.
40:17Like you said, there's a reason it's taking some juice there.
40:20Giants only two overs the last 15 seasons. So I don't love that.
40:24Two, 12 and one to that stretch. But I think it's six to one.
40:29It is a good division bet. You think of this as a seven win team last year.
40:34You add in Harbaugh. You add in the floor raising there.
40:37You add in all the names they added defensively.
40:40And then get the schedule quirk in your direction.
40:43You probably want to steal that Dallas game week one.
40:46They close the year at Dallas Philly. So I don't love that.
40:50But again, if you're going to win the division, you might have to win the division.
40:55You might have to actually beat the teams in front of you at some point.
40:59Can they get one of those if they figured it out by then?
41:03I don't know. I think six to one. We got tomorrow on the feed.
41:08You'll get the whole worst of first podcast. Here's a spoiler alert for you.
41:12This is my pick. This is my Giants Island pick.
41:15Six to one. Worst of first. I think this team has a real shot.
41:19They're flashing. You know, just all those things go their way based on just flex glass principle.
41:25I mean, they were horrible in the red zone.
41:27They're horrible in clutch situations. They were banged up.
41:30Their special teams were bad. One in seven and one possession games.
41:34Fourth down. Variants went against them. I will say, though, they probably have the toughest road schedule in the league.
41:40But, I mean, how did this work? The Eagles, who won the division, their non-divisional road games, as I mentioned, are Tennessee,
41:47Arizona, Chicago, and San Fran, and then Jacksonville in a neutral.
41:50The Giants, who finished in last, their non-divisional road games are the Rams, Texans, Seahawks, Lions, and Colts.
41:56How does that work? But they do have a high floor winnable home games, like Tennessee, Arizona, New Orleans, and Cleveland, San Francisco, Jacksonville.
42:03A couple other scheduling quirks that I'll mention, which could help this case, because, yeah, I would look over as well.
42:10They, you know, you get to Alice at home, home dog week one.
42:14I think that's just a good spot to get them.
42:17The Rams week two. First of all, like, if you're going to play the Rams, okay, burn it on a road game.
42:23You're probably going to lose to many. But if you're going to go to the Rams, that is the time.
42:30Like, there's a small chance that Nakua, Alaric Jackson are out and or suspended.
42:34But they're going to Australia the week before. Like, so, like, if you're going to get the Rams, they're going to be in Australia the week before.
42:42So maybe there's some residual effects, like an older offense.
42:45We mentioned the Washington game. They get Washington after they're overseas.
42:49And then one of their more difficult home games on paper is Jacksonville, the hardest.
42:53No, San Francisco. But Jacksonville is one of their hardest.
42:56That's Jacksonville's third straight road game. So there's some things working in their favor.
43:01Additionally, depending on what happens in the division, Philly, one of your tougher games.
43:05And in the last week, they could be resting starters.
43:08So, like, if you're just talking about the over as well.
43:12So there's some scheduling. It's a brutal road schedule.
43:14It's not an easy schedule overall. But there's some quirks and nuances in the year that I think can help.
43:21And, yeah, you mentioned the special teams. And we mentioned the special teams are bad last year.
43:26Many times, that is a major contributor into a poor record in close games, right?
43:30Poor one possession because you missed a field goal here.
43:34The field position was bad throughout the game. And it led to, you know, a short field touchdown here.
43:39So fix the special teams, as you mentioned, can be a massive upgrade.
43:43And that is our balls. And on the schedule, too, you mentioned, like, the tough road games, the easier home games.
43:50I don't mind that. Like, you're going to have some tough games.
43:54If I'm going to lose to the Rams and Seahawks, let's just get them out of the way.
43:59Like, we're going to lose to those games anyways.
44:02Let's get some winnable games at home. Like, to me, I'm not going to pretend I'm telling you the Giants are going
44:09to be a good 10-7 division winner. I don't think the Giants are going to be good.
44:14I think not good football teams can win divisions.
44:17And I think that's the case that could happen here where it's like we are just – we can't wait to bet
44:24against this team come playoff time that they suddenly snuck in there if things really went well where it's like, can you believe the Giants, man?
44:32How are they of 10 wins with a negative point differential?
44:35They lost by 28 to the Rams. They lost by 30 to the Seahawks.
44:39Guess what? Doesn't matter if you win the games.
44:42So, like, lose those road games by all you need to.
44:45Win the home games that are easier. I actually prefer that for a schedule.
44:50Like, I don't think this is a really good team.
44:53I think this is a team we can bet on to win some games.
44:57Yeah, and there is a story where the level that you have to reach to win the division is lower than what
45:04we might expect going into the season, right? Like, the Cowboys' defense isn't fixed.
45:08And their schedule is really difficult. And then, guess what?
45:11There's always a chance of injuries, right? Like, Dak could get hurt.
45:15And then the Eagles' offense is just not fixed.
45:18And then the commanders are just who we think they're going to be.
45:22And then, you know, there's a world where 10 wins get you the division.
45:26And you don't need to win 11 or 12.
45:29If that Eagles' offense isn't fixed, the Dallas' defense isn't fixed, and then Washington just doesn't take that next step.
45:35There's questions all over. So, yeah, I don't hate it.
45:38If I was going to pick amongst, you know, with all the odds of the teams that were in last place, I
45:45would definitely prefer the Giants over the Detroit Lions, who did finish in last place last year and are now favored to win the NFC North.
45:53This is Matt Rogers from Las Culture East. That's with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
45:58This is Bowen Yang from Las Culture East. That's with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
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49:36DraftKings, the crown is yours. NFC North, Lions plus 170 to win the division.
49:41Packers plus 225. Bears plus 305. Vikings 5-1. The Lions last year finished 9-8.
49:45A bit unfortunate. They were 3-5 in one possession games.
49:48Their defense was ravaged by injuries. They were dead last in adjusted games lost.
49:52Second straight year. And guess what? Maybe they're headed toward that area again because there's injury questions on defense again specifically in the secondary with Branch and Joseph.
50:01When are they going to be available? Is Joseph ever going to be back?
50:05Some of their corners are dealing with injuries. So there's injury questions with this Lions team.
50:10Win total for the Lions is sitting at 10.5 juiced to the over.
50:14I think that's pretty aggressive for this. Everyone just is like, the Lions are going to bounce back.
50:20Last year they were just so hurt. I still have a lot of questions about this team.
50:25The offensive line is still... A couple years ago, this line...
50:28The Lions offense last year was still very good.
50:31It wasn't elite-elite, but it was still very good.
50:34You still have a high four because you have Jameer Gibbs.
50:37Although, how much more of a workload can Gibbs take on?
50:41I mean, you lose Montgomery and you bring in Pacheco.
50:44He's hurt now and not any good. But he was going to get 80% of the touches.
50:49It increases injury risk there. But you have a high four because you have great receivers.
50:54Laporta, he should be back. And that's important. They missed him when he was out.
50:59He's important in the red zone. He's important on third downs.
51:02Goff has a 138 quarterback rating when throwing to Sam Laporta.
51:05But a couple years ago, they had Ben Johnson, one of the best offensive coordinators in the league.
51:11And they had just a dominant, dominant offensive line.
51:14Well, Ben Johnson is no longer there. They bring in Drew Petzin.
51:18I think that was a good hire, but he's not Ben Johnson.
51:21And the offensive line has questions. Like, you know, you're going to move Sewell, who's one of the better tackles in the NFL, to the left side.
51:30You're going to be counting on a rookie at right tackle.
51:33Your guards are still meh. You've got to hope that, you know, Ratlidge takes that next step.
51:38But then at center, you were counting on Mays, who's hurt.
51:42Now you're down to, like, Drew Scruggs. And here's the thing that just will ruin games for the Lions against competitive teams especially.
51:49It'll just lead to some turnovers. And Sacks' interior pressure bothers Goff as much as any quarterback in the NFL.
51:55He's not very mobile. So I have questions in the offense.
51:58And then on defense, you know, you bring in, you're hoping Derek Moore can contribute and help be that other edge rusher
52:05on the opposite side of Aiden Hutchinson. You hope McNeil has a bounce back year.
52:10Onwazurike comes back from injury. But the secondary is still a major concern.
52:14You're hoping that maybe Keith Abney as a rookie can contribute.
52:17But it is just not the same. And DJ Reed, I mean, he's going to be 30.
52:22There's a, just at times, some of these corners hit 29, 30, and you will see the production fall off a cliff.
52:29So there's risk there. And then with the Branch and Joseph injuries, there's a lot of uncertainty in the secondary.
52:35And it's not like this defensive line with a healthy Hutchinson who had a great year was great.
52:41And they were bottom five, I think, in pass block win rate, run block win rate.
52:46So I would assume they're going to be a little healthier.
52:49They'll probably be a little bit better in one possession games.
52:53They will be, I assume, luckier in fumbles. They had, I couldn't believe this.
52:57Their defense force 24 fumbles and they only recovered six?
53:00How is that even mathematically possible? I do think that on defense, they're going to be, last year they were in base way too much.
53:08Calvin Shepard said he's studying some of the best defenses in the league.
53:12They need to, you know, play a little bit more zone.
53:15They need to be in nickel more. So I think they'll make some necessary schematic adjustments.
53:20So they brought in Roger McCreary. And I think that they'll place a little bit more nickel.
53:25But I don't think that this is just like a, oh, in a very tough division, a very competitive division.
53:32It's just like, oh, slam dunk lines are winning this.
53:35They're winning 11 plus games. There's, there's potential. There's a lot of questions on this roster.
53:40What are your thoughts on the lines? Yeah, I agree with a lot of the same hesitance here.
53:45I just think everything feels like it's slowly trickling in the wrong direction on this team.
53:50Like you think back to a couple of years ago, Detroit Lions, one seed, rested into the playoffs, facing Washington.
53:56Ever since that game started, it just feels like things have been slow quickly that game.
54:01But from there, slowly wrong direction. The run game, not quite as good as it used to be.
54:07Dropped a 10th in DVOA last year. That's not a Ben Johnson number anymore.
54:11Like you said, I think Montgomery to Pacheco. We kind of just think like, oh yeah, power back.
54:17It'll be fine. No, Pacheco is not in Kansas City for a reason.
54:21Like just zero explosiveness there. And we saw Gibbs get exposed a little bit as a pass blocker last year at times.
54:27I think we're going to see more of that when he's got to be on the field a little bit more.
54:34So that's a bit of a problem. I agree on the offensive line.
54:38This was number one in my offensive line ranks two years ago.
54:42They're 17th right now starting the season with Cade Mays out.
54:45That is below league average, technically speaking, basically at league average.
54:48But that's a big drop off. And that's where the run game goes.
54:52I had in my notes also the same thing.
54:55Interior pressure, Jared Goff. It all trickles down to where, okay, you're not running as effectively.
55:00You've got to pass more. Well, guess what? We don't want to put Jared Goff in the half to pass spots.
55:07We want to put him in the advantageous spots.
55:09So there's a lot of things there to be concerned about.
55:13I don't really know what I think about Drew Petzin at this point.
55:17We had hopes for him. It went well for a while.
55:20Then we decided maybe that was because of Clayton Adams.
55:23And once he left, the run game wasn't quite as good there under Petzin.
55:28I do think he's a tight ends guy. So I really like Sam Laporta this year, particularly.
55:33Petzin with Trey McBride obviously worked magic over there.
55:36So I agree with Laporta having a big season there.
55:39But the thing is, after all the wrong trickles in the wrong direction, they still finished seventh in DVOA, top 10 passing and rushing last year.
55:47And so I still have them slipping a little further, but still going to be a good offense.
55:52Just is it a really good offense? And that's a big difference.
55:56And then defense, kind of the same thing. It's like it's all the injuries, already the safeties are out.
56:02I don't think you even mentioned Terry and Arnold, who's just off the team now for good reason.
56:07But that's another corner that they would have been counting on.
56:11That's just not the team anymore. But again, they've had all the injuries the last few years.
56:16Like you said, they finished ninth, fifth and 13th in DVOA.
56:19So look, DVOA is accounting for schedule. And Detroit's going to be facing tough schedule this year and every year because of the division.
56:27So I think that's part of it. That's like, okay, the defense feels worse, but it's pretty good because it's been tough competition out there.
56:35I think if you get Branch and Joseph back out there, I think this could be by season's end, top 10 defense
56:41on the field, but they got to get to the season's end.
56:45They got to get those guys back. So to me, I was all ready to be out on the lines.
56:51Like every rankings podcast we did, I'd be like, I don't know, a little red flag for the lines here, a little bit lower again.
56:59And then I got to the schedule. And I have schedule thoughts, but I know you have schedule thoughts.
57:05I'm going to let you start here and I'll add in from there.
57:09Yeah, their schedule's a joke. Arguably the easiest in the league.
57:12I mean, look, we just talked about the Giants not getting rewarded for finishing in last place.
57:17Well, the Lions finished in last place, like barely because of the last.
57:22The Vikings won five in a row to end the season and punt away.
57:26As a Vikings fan, loving that right now. Yeah, so the Lions road non-divisional games are Buffalo, which is tough.
57:32And then Carolina, Arizona, Miami, and Atlanta. I mean, you basically can't get any easier than that.
57:37The one difficult part of this, and this was to be expected, is you do have to go, you have golf outdoors
57:44and potential weather at Chicago and at Green Bay to end the year.
57:48But this schedule is, I mean, look, the difference, the last place schedule, the three teams that they get because of finishing
57:55in last place are Tennessee, Arizona, and the Giants.
57:58And by comparison, here's who the Packers get in those three spots.
58:01Cowboys, Rams, Texans. Here's who the Bears get in those three spots.
58:05Eagles, Seahawks, Jaguars. You get Giants, Cardinals, Titans. That's literally like a two or three game swing in the division.
58:11That's crazy. Yeah, that's massive. And by the way, you mentioned that they were finished top 10.
58:16They were one of only two teams last year that finished in the top 10 in DVOA of offense, defense, and special teams.
58:24The other was Seattle. So, and Detroit missed the playoffs.
58:27But, yeah, I have questions about this roster. Dan Campbell ended up being prophetic.
58:31And after that loss to Washington, he was talking about how, look, it's hard to get back here and why it hurt so much.
58:38And he's right. I mean, I sympathize with him as a Ravens fan.
58:42Like, you are like, man, did we miss our window?
58:45I know that you haven't had many windows as a Vikings fan.
58:49Come on now. The NFC championship game counts as a window.
58:53We get there like once a decade or so.
58:55What is your, what was your, the game that hurts the most from like the early?
59:00Yeah, it's got to be the 98 game, right?
59:03Like the Gary Anderson 15 and one and the Gary Anderson perfect all season and kick goes wide against the Falcons.
59:10Are you losing overtime? And like that, that's the one because that's Dante Culpepper, Randy Moss, like everything, everything about that era.
59:16And that same thing, like you were just saying, like at the time.
59:20So I can't believe I'm going to admit this on the podcast.
59:24So I grew up with a red and black bedroom as a kid, because I'm a kid in the nineties and it's Chicago Bulls.
59:31And I'm not in Chicago. I am now, but everyone likes the Bulls right in the nineties.
59:37For whatever reason, I don't even really know. I like the Falcons too.
59:41And it never mattered. I was a Vikings fan, but I liked the Falcons.
59:45They were cool. They had Dion Sanders and it was perfectly fine to like the Falcons because they sucked.
59:51And it would never, ever matter to like the Vikings and the Falcons.
59:55And suddenly they're playing each other in the NFC championship.
59:58And I was like, dang, man, who did I root for in this game?
60:02And I made the classic mistake as a kid.
60:05And what you were just saying, like, well, I don't know the Falcons, like Chris Chandler, Jamal Anderson.
60:11This is a one-time thing for the Falcons. The Vikings will be good for years, man.
60:16We'll give them another chance later. It's fine that the Falcons upset them and went to the Super Bowl.
60:21This is their year. The Vikings will have more chances.
60:25And then, no, you don't get more chances. You get one chance sometimes.
60:29And Detroit, they got their one chance. And look, there's a reason it happens.
60:33It's because you have all these guys who are on the rookie contracts.
60:37And as the years go on, you got to sign the big extension.
60:41You slowly start losing some of your other guys.
60:44Like this is the reality of salary cap football.
60:46It's the reality of everything going right. You get your coin flip games your way.
60:51You get your injury luck going your way. And it just, it feels like the Lions window is getting further and further away as we go.
60:59So the number is 10 and a half on this team.
61:03Do you know the Lions as a franchise have only gone over that number three times since 1991?
61:08Like it's kind of crazy. The Lions were a joke in the league for so long.
61:13We kind of forget now because they've established such a floor.
61:16But to me, I wanted to go under on this team.
61:20I wanted to come in and be like, the best bet you can make is Lions no division.
61:25But the schedule is so soft. And especially too, here's the start schedule.
61:29Saints week one, Thursday night bills. Don't love that for them with some of the injuries coming up right off the bat.
61:36But then Jets, Panthers, Cardinals, and then a week six bye.
61:40If I'm an injured team starting out, if I just need to kind of settle in and find my way, it's a
61:46pretty good schedule starting out and an early bye to help out as well.
61:51You're just trying to like get my safeties back on the field, get Cade Mays back on the field.
61:57Here's where I landed. I think I'm going to pass on this team for now.
62:01Look elsewhere in the division. I think it's an in-season under.
62:05I think like around that week six bye, maybe you're four and one now.
62:09Maybe you beat up on the Jets, Panthers, Cardinals, and Saints.
62:12But now your rest of the season schedule is not quite so juicy because you played all those teams already.
62:18You got the whole division coming up still. And maybe now you get like a better price.
62:24Maybe we get to an 11 and a half under at that point.
62:28Everyone's just sky high on the Lions. I don't know that this is not a bad team.
62:33You mentioned top 10 last year, offense, defense, just them and the Seahawks.
62:37I have them top 10 or top half of the league, offense and defense and special teams.
62:42There won only four teams like that. So even with my everything's going bad on the Lions take, they're still a good team.
62:49Like they're still probably even the right division favorite with the schedule.
62:53You just can't bet it at plus 170 with all these injuries in this tight division.
62:58And so you schedule or not, you can't get there.
63:01I completely agree on everything you said. All right, let's move on to the Green Bay Packers.
63:06Win total nine and a half juiced to the over Packers last year.
63:10You want to talk about a window? Well, this is a nice transition.
63:14My only Super Bowl future last year coming into the year was on the Packers 25 to one before they got Parsons.
63:21And I thought they were one of the better teams in the NFC before all the injuries hit.
63:27And the injuries just hit at the worst possible time.
63:30Obviously, Parsons just changes the defense so much. But they lost Kraft and Wyatt and the offensive line had injuries.
63:36And they just were never the same team. So going into this year, there are definitely more questions.
63:42Number one, you still have Parsons who's not going to be available to start the year.
63:46The offensive line, I think, is one of the weaker units in the league.
63:51Like you have Zach Tom, not Zach Tom anymore.
63:54Zach Bako Bewele. Yeah, I remember when I didn't see the news that he changed his name and I saw a depth
64:00chart and I was like, what happened to Zach Tom?
64:03I know, same thing. To realize that he changed his name to honor his heritage.
64:08But, I mean, it looks like Jacob Monk is going to start at right guard.
64:13It's like he was not even great at Duke.
64:15That was a surprise. Sean Ryan is not a great center.
64:19Aaron Banks is not a great left guard. Jordan Morgan is kicking back out to tackle.
64:24He's played some guard. He played tackle in college at Arizona.
64:27But, like, outside of Zach Tom, where are you?
64:30Like, I feel confident about this offensive line. You have some questions surrounding Josh Jacobs and maybe there's a suspension coming.
64:36You did kind of pare down your wide receiver room and you're hoping that just, like, more stability and kind of set
64:43in stone roles can help unlock guys like Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Jaden Reed.
64:48LaFleur, I think he's, like, thinking about re-evolving as often.
64:51So, you might see some changes this year. But there's the questions for me.
64:55I mean, it's the floor. It's going to give you a high floor, the floor, offense.
65:00But the offensive line could just really make things difficult for him because I have – this could be a bottom five offensive line in the NFL.
65:09I have it ranked as such going into the year.
65:12Me too. But defensively, there's still questions in the secondary.
65:15A guy that could really – their safeties are set.
65:18So, you're like, wow, our safeties are really good.
65:21Evan Williams, Xavier McKinney, Javon Bullard in the slot.
65:23So, you feel really good about that group. The cornerback room is, like, you have a bunch of guys that, like, probably are nickels that are playing outside.
65:32So, can – I think he's going to start week one.
65:35Can Brandon Cisse, the rookie, be a number one lockdown corner?
65:39That's difficult to do. Rarely happens. Like, a reliable lockdown rookie corner.
65:43But that's a name to watch because, like, if he can be the outside corner and, like, be really good from day
65:49one, and then you just have, like, Nixon as your two and then you're good at safety and nickel, and you're going
65:56to use a lot of three safety looks with their new defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon.
66:01But it's just not the same front without Parsons, and it's not an overly talented defensive line.
66:06So, we'll see when Parsons does come back. They were a top 12-ish defense with Parsons.
66:11The sample size is small, but without him, they dropped to, like, a bottom six or seven defense.
66:16It was – he's that important. Fortunately, from a scheduling perspective, it's an easier start.
66:21Now, you can look at that two ways. Like, oh, we're banged up early.
66:25We don't have Parsons. Maybe we're going to lose some of the winnable games on our schedule.
66:31But you could say, okay, well, we don't really need them, and we could win those games.
66:36It depends on how you want to spin it.
66:39But they start off at Minnesota, at the Jets, home against the Falcons, at the Bucs, home against the Bears.
66:45So, it's not the most daunting schedule early on.
66:48This is an interesting team. I was all about them last year.
66:51I bought them to win the Super Bowl. I still think they would have had a shot, although the Rams and Seahawks were just really good.
66:59But they would have been in a fight. They could have gotten themselves in a fight if they were fully healthy, and they just weren't.
67:07And I think the team is much worse this year, especially without Parsons and the offensive line taking a big step back.
67:14But through Week 15, I mean, this was a top-five offense and a top-12-ish defense with Parsons, and then it just was never the same.
67:22Trace Mack is a name to know because he might be that dude at kicker, and then maybe the rookie, McClellan, can
67:28come in and help along the defensive line. But curious to get your thoughts on the Packers this year.
67:34Yeah, Trace Mack, rookie kicker, adding to a special team that's been pretty bad over the years under the Packers.
67:40You get a new unknown coach, which can't really be a lot worse than the last staff, but you get a new long snapper.
67:48I think special teams is likely a bottom-10 unit until they prove otherwise.
67:52You never know what you're getting in a rookie kicker.
67:55I think defense, at least without Micah Parsons, has to be a bottom-10 unit right now.
68:00Bottom-7 run defense, five of the last seven seasons.
68:03They've never been able to stop the run that well.
68:06They've finished 19th or worse by DVOA for the last five years.
68:09The only year they didn't is that year they got all the turnover luck, right?
68:14When all the safeties were picking off a pass every single week.
68:18And then as soon as that went away, you looked at the half-way underlying numbers that year and the success rate and all that stuff.
68:26It wasn't good underneath anyway. So it's just not been a great defense.
68:30That was the point of Micah Parsons. You bring in the queen to the chessboard and he changes everything.
68:35Suddenly Lucas Van Ness looked pretty good last year next to Micah Parsons.
68:39Lots easier being the guy getting single-teamed on the one side while Micah's over there.
68:44Well, go back to the double teams now, Lucas Van Ness.
68:47Let's see how this goes for you. So I was like, later in the year, I can see the defense kind of
68:54figuring things out and getting, like you said, we've known since Dallas that the splits with Micah Parsons on the field and
69:01off the field have always been massive as much as anyone in the league.
69:05To me still, I know how great Myles Garrett is, any of the other options.
69:10Healthy Micah Parsons is still the guy defensively of just like the biggest swing on the field.
69:15And it rises the tide of everyone else out there.
69:18So he comes back at some point. Does he come back as Micah Parsons or does he come back as like 80% Micah Parsons?
69:26And that's a big swing also. Offensively, Tucker Craft.
69:29When is he back? And what version of Tucker Craft is back on the field?
69:33Because I think he's kind of really the X factor and the sort of guy that unlocked the whole thing offensively last year for them.
69:41Like he was so good. And it looks like he'll be back early.
69:45But what version of Tucker Craft will get back early?
69:48How long till he is that version of himself?
69:51So it's like, to me, the Packers have such a stable floor as an organization.
69:55I've always been a Matt LeFleur guy. I've always been a Jordan Love guy.
70:00You can't just sell hard on the team because they're going to get Micah back.
70:04They're going to get Tucker back. They're going to be better later in the season, I think.
70:10But you cannot invest futures on this team right now.
70:13The way things are set up, you're missing your most important player, arguably, other than obviously Jordan Love on offense and defense, I think.
70:20And like you said, I agree. Bottom five offensive line.
70:23Not only that, but I've done offensive line rankings for at least half a decade.
70:28Packers have been 7th to 13th every single year.
70:31They pick dudes in the sixth round and they're just like, yep, you're a good guard now.
70:36Congratulations. You're on the Packers. It is infuriating as a Vikings fan.
70:40They always have a good quality line. Jordan Love has always had a good quality line and doesn't this year.
70:46So the floor, like you said, has been really stable offensively.
70:49Under Matt LaFleur, seven years in Green Bay, top 11 offensive DVOA every single season.
70:54That's crazy. That's the end of the Rodgers era.
70:56That's brand new quarterback Jordan Love. In fact, all three Jordan Love years, top six offense.
71:01So that's the floor. I have to think of this as a fringe top 10 unit.
71:06I just think it's the bottom version of the floor.
71:09I think there's every reason to believe this is like the worst version of the Packers we've seen in a while now.
71:16So I can't invest right now. I have to at least give them the respect to possibly need to invest later in the year.
71:24Maybe you buy the discount. Like I'm with you.
71:26I was in on this team last year. I was excited.
71:30Maybe mid-season, they're three and five, kind of off the radar.
71:33And finally Parsons is a couple weeks from coming back.
71:36Maybe you buy the dip. Maybe that's the Super Bowl ticket spot.
71:40I can see that for the team. I like the talent that's there, but it's not there right now.
71:46So to me, I would lean under the 10 and a half.
71:50But again, you mentioned the early schedule is in their favor.
71:53If you can win in Minnesota, by the way, you mentioned start your shutdown rookie cornerback.
71:58Good luck, Justin Jefferson in week one. Let's see how that goes for you.
72:02But if you win in Minnesota, then Jets and Falcons, you might be 3-0 and you might be like, okay, cool.
72:09Well, Kraft is back on the field. We're only a month out from Parsons.
72:13We're kind of making it. But to me, this is one where in the world of prediction markets now, where you can
72:20buy the stock and sell the stock and buy back in later, this is the spot to short the Packers right now.
72:27And it might be that we get mid-season and you just don't even need to get out of your spot.
72:33It just might not be there a year. It might be a recovery transition year, get the guys healthy for next time.
72:40Or you might need to sell eventually and get back onto the other side and leave things the way they are.
72:46But it's only a sell for me right now on Green Bay.
72:50I can't be interested in a team missing their most important guys.
72:54I have some under. And I mean, I project as of right now where this team stands, I project like 9-1.
73:00And I love LaFleur and I love Jordan Love.
73:03But yeah, there may be a chance. Like if Cissé hits and then Parsons comes back and they're like middling in the
73:10division, I will be looking to potentially buy them based on what I'm saying.
73:14But let's move on to the Chicago Bears. The Chicago Bears are, their win total is sitting at 9.5, slightly juiced to the under.
73:21They finished 11-6 last year. Had a magical year under Ben Johnson.
73:25The offense improved dramatically. The offensive line, I mean, went from 31st to 3rd in adjusted line yards.
73:31They also invested in the offensive line. Their adjusted sack rate went from dead last to 4th.
73:36Their offense, just their run offense was great. Caleb Williams still has room to improve with accuracy and down-to-down consistency.
73:42But he was better. His adjusted sack rate went way down.
73:45He was just a better player. Still room to improve.
73:48But that was the Ben Johnson effect. Now, there are questions on this offense.
73:53I wouldn't, it's not going to be a bad offense.
73:56But how much do they come down a little bit if the offensive line isn't as good?
74:01Drew Dahlman retires at center. So now you're looking at Garrett Bradbury.
74:05There's still questions at what's going to shake out a left tackle.
74:09But Dahlman was like so good in the run game for them.
74:12Bradbury's not really that same type of player in how he moves.
74:16So we'll see if the offensive line is just a step worse.
74:20And then the run game just is a little bit less effective.
74:23But it's Ben Johnson and this offense. And if Caleb Williams takes it another step forward, the offense is going to be really good.
74:31The defense is where all of my concerns are.
74:34There are, I mean, look, I'm shocked with this, with Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams after last year that they didn't go out and get.
74:41I would have, all right, we got to go get Miles Garrett, I don't care what it takes, or something like to improve the edge rush.
74:49Because this defense last year was really bad. As bad of a defense as you're ever going to see for an 11-win team.
74:56And they just got really, really lucky. I mean, they recovered 71% of their fumbles.
75:01They intercepted 33% of their pass breakups. That's an insane number.
75:04They were at a plus 22 turnover margin. Ridiculous.
75:07And, by the way, the schedule is going to get much tougher.
75:11Even though they faced the AFC East and the NFC South, which gives you some soft teams.
75:16Last year, this is a team that didn't face one playoff team the first 12 weeks.
75:21And this year they're projected to face nine. They did face five in the second half of the year.
75:27You know who they faced? Pittsburgh with Rudolph. Philadelphia and that broken team.
75:31Green Bay twice when Green Bay had all the injuries.
75:34And their team was beat up and they just weren't the same.
75:37And then San Francisco they lost to when they had a ton of injuries.
75:42So those are the five playoff teams that they faced last year.
75:45The schedule. And also they faced Rudolph. They faced Rattler.
75:49They faced Willis instead of Love. They faced Flacco.
75:51McCarthy twice. Shador. Lamb got hurt. But there was no Lamb when they played Dallas.
75:56Parsons was hurt when they played Green Bay. So everything broke right for them on defense on the field.
76:02They just lived and died by turnovers. And they just got every single break.
76:06I mean, their pass defense on late downs was way better than it was on early downs.
76:11Like everything is screaming regression. And by the way, they lost 19 of their 23 interceptions because their safeties went out the door.
76:18So what did they do? Well, they brought in a safety who's now out for the year.
76:24And you might be relying on, I don't know, Cam Lewis.
76:27It's a rookie you're going to be relying on.
76:30So like the safety play could drop significantly. Kyler Gordon, like he's already hurt.
76:34And can he stay healthy for more than a week?
76:37So it didn't improve the pass rush. The pass rush, they play a ton of man and they ranked 29th in adjusted
76:44line yards and one of the worst teams in the league at getting pressure.
76:48That's a bad combination. So, yeah, they didn't improve their pass rush at all.
76:53So, and Montez Sweat is like, what's he going to be?
76:56He's going to be 30 the next month. Not great.
76:59So, like, I don't know what there is to like about this defense.
77:03It could end up, I wouldn't be shocked if they end up, I mean, they were like a bottom seven or eight
77:10defense last year with all the turnovers. I wouldn't be shocked if this is the second or third worst defense in the league.
77:17Maybe the worst. Wouldn't shock me if they were the worst.
77:21And just, I wouldn't, like they only end up with like four turnovers and they just get absolutely shredded to pieces.
77:27So, yeah, I love Ben Johnson, but almost 20% of opponents' drives ended in turnovers last year.
77:32That's the highest rate this decade. Just insane. And they went 9-0 in games.
77:37They forced multiple turnovers. And they didn't really face many good quarterbacks.
77:40Three and seven when they didn't. I want to sell the Bears.
77:44I think everyone does. Ben Johnson, he's talked about it.
77:47In his presser, he's like, we're the regression team.
77:50I mean, it's pretty obvious. Yeah, I want to sell them.
77:53What do I project? I project them at, I mean, I'm at 8-8.
77:57So, I'm pretty low. I can get there on the under.
78:01Are you going to convince me otherwise or are you on board?
78:04No, I think I'm mostly on board here. The takeaways thing, they led the league in takeaways and fewest turnovers.
78:11They were number one in both directions. So, they were plus 22 turnover margin from Bill Barnwell since 1990.
78:16There's 21 teams that have been plus 20 or better.
78:1920 of 21 won fewer games the next season.
78:22The average finishing at plus three turnovers. Because turnover margin evens out over the years.
78:27So, if you drop from plus 22 to plus three, that's more than one turnover swing per game.
78:32That's going to suddenly go the other direction here.
78:35I wanted to come in. Look, I have the Bears ranked 15th in my defensive rankings.
78:40And I am having some second and third thoughts about that already.
78:44I wanted to come in and say, okay, yeah, yeah, yeah.
78:47Turnover regression. But how about injury regression in the positive direction?
78:51But like you said, Kobe Bryant is already out for the season.
78:54Kyler Gordon is already hurt. Dennis Allen's defense. I still believe in Dennis Allen.
78:59That's kind of where I started with, okay, could they be average?
79:02Could this be one of those teams that gets to average?
79:06Dennis Allen needs his corners. He needs cover guys out there.
79:09Jalen Johnson's been great. When he can be healthy, Kyler Gordon, I think, is a really good slot corner.
79:15When he's healthy. And I was like, okay, well, let's get the secondary healthy.
79:19And let's see what Dennis Allen can do. Well, I don't know if we're going to see it as the problem.
79:26So we're already starting that way. Offense, yeah, I feel pretty good about the offense.
79:31I had them fifth on offense. The upside is obviously there.
79:34Colson Loveland might already be like the best tight end in the league.
79:38He's a chess piece. He runs. He blocks. He goes out for routes, whatever route you need him to do.
79:44Like he's a scheme buster. Because unlike some of these guys, like a Trey McBride, you know he's just going out for a pass.
79:51You know, like he's not going to set up for you and just steamroll some guy off the edge.
79:57But Loveland's doing everything. So as an offensive play caller, you love to have a piece like that that can disguise what you're doing.
80:05And so I think that's really huge for them.
80:08Ozzy Trapilo, the left tackle, suddenly like might be back.
80:11I don't know, even for week one. We don't know.
80:14We thought he might be out for the whole season.
80:17And that's the guy they think is their left tackle in the future.
80:21So that would be a big swing. The phrase I keep saying with this offense is they got to eat their vegetables.
80:28It's a home run offense, right? They're hitting the huge plays down the field.
80:32But you can't live that way. I know they did last year.
80:36But like, look, there's a reason you need to hit the big home runs.
80:40It's because you've been trailing the rest of the game because you didn't eat your vegetables.
80:45You got to just like hit some singles, move the chains a little bit.
80:49And it's weird because, you know, a lot of analysts seem fine with that.
80:54Like Ben Johnson football is move the chains football.
80:56Ben Johnson is like efficiency and keep things going.
80:59That's not really what this group was. So I think that they improve on that end and find a little bit more there.
81:06But I agree. I would lean under. I'll pass.
81:09I'm pretty close to the number. I actually have them at 9.7.
81:13So the number at nine and a half. I'm about at projection.
81:16But to me, they're a lot more under paths than overs.
81:20You get a volatile offense because of the home run hitting stuff.
81:23And you get a defense that could just be really bad.
81:27I think FTN, who makes the DVOA projections, I think they have them dead last in their projections for this season.
81:33So not great on that. Since 2006, teams that improved by six wins or more improved again three times out of 38 chances the following season.
81:41They averaged 2.8 wins fewer the next season. 2.8 wins fewer from 11 gets you to eight pretty much right at your number.
81:48So that trend would be Niners, Jags, Pats as well this year.
81:52I think the Bears, again, Ben Johnson is really good.
81:55I was all in Bears Island last year. I'm not out on the Bears.
82:00I just can't be in on the Bears. I think they're just right in the mix.
82:05And look, I actually have this entire division projected somewhere between 9.7 and 10.3.
82:09All four teams are within a half win of each other.
82:12This team ends up lowest of the four, but you're right in the mix.
82:17You just can't be too excited about it at the number we're getting.
82:21Yeah, every team's within one and a half wins of each other.
82:24Yeah, it's so close. And yeah, I think the nickel position is so important in today's NFL.
82:30You're able to have a nickel out there that can defend the run, end the pass, keep them on the field.
82:36You don't have to match with heavier personnel. You can just keep your nickel on there.
82:41And Kyler Gordon, when healthy, is one of the better ones.
82:44He might get traded. I don't know what's going on.
82:47Ben Johnson today said, we have almost everyone on our roster fighting to get back on the field.
82:53So, like that sounds like, why almost? And then he said, what is, so like, is he going to get traded?
82:59I don't know. It seems like it's, something is going on there.
83:03I mean, I know he's dealing with a calf injury.
83:06I, but the Bears, if I'm them, how do you not like, just go trade for like sweat or something?
83:12Like they need to improve their pass rush to like give this defense a higher floor because you're now safety is a question.
83:20If Gordon is hurt and you're not getting any pressure and then all this regression comes, like you got to raise the floor somehow.
83:27So we'll see how bad it gets with the defense in Chicago.
83:31But they certainly should find themselves in some shootouts.
83:33And let's close things up with your Minnesota Vikings win total eight and a half minus 120 at DraftKings.
83:39They are close to five to one to win the division.
83:43This division is awesome because you have LaFleur, Campbell, Johnson, and O'Connell.
83:46I mean, that is, I kind of feel bad for all of them that they have, they're all in the same division.
83:53They could be dominating like the NFC South or something.
83:56So Vikings last year finished nine and eight, which was not ideal because the Lions finished nine and eight and lost the tiebreaker and got an easier schedule.
84:05Although their non-divisional road games are not terrible. Tampa Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, New England, and the Jets.
84:11And San Francisco's in Mexico City, I believe. This is your team.
84:15So I can't wait to hear all of your reports on them and get some intel because I'm very high on this team.
84:22I think I was so low on McCarthy. I hated McCarthy.
84:25So bringing in Kyler Murray. And you know how bad you have to be to not make a Kevin O'Connell offense work?
84:32Like the amount of quarterbacks that he's had that have been, that have fielded competitive, competent offenses.
84:37The list is, you can go on and on with random names.
84:41And McCarthy just couldn't do it. He was that bad.
84:44So Kyler Murray raises the floor significantly and is much better than some of the guys that O'Connell's had competent offenses with before.
84:51So if that's the case, and look, if the offensive line is healthy, this is one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.
84:58It's one of the better wide receiver trios in the NFL after they brought in Jennings to match with Addison and Jefferson.
85:05This offense, and you trust O'Connell, and then you have a Flores defense.
85:09It's an older defense at some spots, but it's Flores.
85:12You just trust him. He's going to figure it out.
85:15He's going to have, I mean, he's going to be blitz heavy.
85:19You know that. But he's going to have, last year they blitzed over 50% of the time.
85:24The next highest was 39%. But like the year before, they were dropping eight a lot.
85:29They eliminated that last year. He's going to have some wrinkles this year that no one knows are coming, and they're probably going to work.
85:37They were just an outlier in everything they did, and it worked.
85:41And by the way, their defense faced the second-hardest schedule last year, and they still finished as a top-five unit.
85:47I'm hearing this guy. My guy Chuck D might be in the mix at corner, Demers.
85:52They bring in Pierre. So I'm curious to see if they run more nickel.
85:56I'm hearing good things about the Thomases. How do they have a free safety name, Jacob Thomas and Jacoby Thomas?
86:02What are the chances of that? Keep in mind, this team last year, I said they might have one of the best.
86:09They had McCarthy at quarterback, and they had an offensive line.
86:12Their most common offensive line combination only played together 25% of snaps.
86:16That was the lowest in the league. You had, what, Darisal only finished six games, hurt all year.
86:22Jackson missed three. O'Neal missed three. Kelly missed nine.
86:24Freeze was still dealing with an injury that was lingering from 2024.
86:28So they had injuries all over the offensive line, a horrible quarterback, and they still won nine games.
86:34And it wasn't overly lucky. The minus nine turnover margin, five and four in one possession games.
86:39So I'm buying this team. And part of the reason, I actually project them with the second most wins in the division.
86:46Part of the reason is, we just mentioned, like I'm not as high as everyone on the lines.
86:51There's questions there. The Packers have questions with their offensive line and the Parsons injury.
86:56The Bears' defensive regression is probably coming. And maybe just maybe the offensive line isn't as strong as it was last year.
87:03So I already bet some Vikings to make the playoffs.
87:06I like this team. We'll see what the rookies on defense, some of the rookies can give them.
87:11All eyes will be on Banks and maybe Dom Orange up front on that defensive line.
87:16But it's basically like, look, we needed the quarterback.
87:19Expect better offensive line help. It's O'Connell. The offense is going to cook.
87:23And then it's Flores. You can trust the defense.
87:26And then you have one of the most reliable kickers who I love in the NFL as well.
87:31So I think their special teams should be pretty good.
87:35I'm a buyer of the Vikings. Am I off base here?
87:38No, I think it's time to buy a Vikings stock right now.
87:42The defense, I had them as 10th in my defensive rankings.
87:45I do have some real concerns about the defense.
87:48If you look just talent alone, to me, talent alone, this is probably a bottom 10 defense.
87:53But Brian Flores is so good that I still rank them top 10 on defense.
87:58Partly that's because the defense are pretty clustered together in that kind of middle range.
88:02But you lose a lot of bodies here. John Grenard out the door.
88:06Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. Not great last year, but still veterans that know what they're doing.
88:12Harrison Smith, longtime Vikings. No longer there anymore. Just not a lot of names left.
88:16Or no, is he officially done? I thought that he was done.
88:20I don't know. By the way, you mentioned Jacoby Thomas and Jacob Thomas.
88:24We also got Tavier Thomas at safety too. So anyone named Thomas, you're welcome to come play safety for the Vikings.
88:30I really had the James Pierre signing at corner.
88:33I thought he was really good for Pittsburgh. So hopefully he's in the mix.
88:38But you get a lot of dudes now looking at this roster.
88:41Him, you got Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rogers. All in sort of outsized role on Minnesota from what they came over at.
88:48And they've been good. Like Jalen Redman stepped up last year.
88:51He didn't even need the other defensive tackles because Redman was so good.
88:55But like how many times can you keep turning over the roster from the guys that everyone thought were good?
89:01And you're like, okay, well, we got this good guy instead now because Flores made him awesome.
89:07But like at some point, you worry about the trickle down effect of some of that.
89:11To me, the pass rush is the biggest worry because Dallas Turner has not really been that good yet.
89:17And the Vikings have to have Dallas Turner give them something from a pass rush standpoint because you know that they're bringing the blitz.
89:25Like, you know, with Flores, that's what's coming. My fear for this defense is that, look, we said earlier with Durante Jones
89:32and Washington, the personnel is not great. It can sometimes get ugly.
89:35I think this defense has some ugly games this year.
89:38I think they're going to look really bad at times.
89:41I think they're also going to look really good against bad quarterbacks and bad offenses.
89:46So good that they still end up pretty good in the metrics at the end of the year because it just kind of even things out that way.
89:55So I don't think this is a great defense.
89:57You know, you look at like defensive rankings around the league.
90:01You see a lot of like top four or five.
90:04Minnesota's not in that mix. And I think they're correctly not in that mix.
90:08They're not talented enough on that side of the ball.
90:11So the offense has to match it. I think you're right to call out the offensive line.
90:17Christian Derrissaw, him and Brian O'Neill at the bookends, if they're healthy, is a great run grading tackle duo.
90:22And Frank Smith is a name you're going to hear a lot about when you watch Vikings games this year, that the
90:29offensive assistant they brought in from Miami really got this run game going.
90:33And I think if you look at Minnesota, what you love is just the depth.
90:38We talked about the three receivers. I love the running back.
90:41Well, Mason and Jones. Give me Jones more on third downs this year.
90:45Give me some pass blocking, some pass catching. Give me Mason in the Frank Smith system running between the tackles.
90:52They finished 13th in DVOA last year. Kevin O'Connell's not had a good run game at all as a Minnesota coach.
90:58So if you can get that run game floor, that's what he's wanted to establish there.
91:03And then I mentioned the depth. Love my Josh Oliver tight end backup, right?
91:07Nobody knows the blocking guys, but he's as good as anyone as the second option next to TJ Hawkinson.
91:13So you have so many different pieces and looks that you can give.
91:17I don't know that Kyler Murray is the perfect fit.
91:20I don't really think anyone thinks he's the perfect fit.
91:23But he's a lot more perfect than JJ McCarthy, right?
91:26You just take the talent that's available for what, like a million dollars, basically free, and you make it work.
91:33And I think this is the year, though, that KOC has to make it work.
91:37Here's some crazy numbers for you. Last year, the Vikings go 9-8.
91:41They finished 29th in offensive DVOA last season because they had no quarterback the entire season.
91:46So credit for going 9-8. But we give KOC a lot of credit for being this offensive genius.
91:51You listed off all the guys in this division.
91:54If you go by the numbers, he does not belong in that group because four years in Minnesota, he has yet to
92:01have a top 14 DVOA offense at the end of the year.
92:05His average finish is 22nd. That's basically bottom 10 finish offensively.
92:08So, look, I like KOC. And he's had a rough draw because look at the quarterbacks year after year, and you see what you get.
92:16But look, we said that about Sam Darnold, and then he left and went and won the Super Bowl after that.
92:22Like, there are other teams doing things with quarterbacks.
92:25Kyler Murray and KOC. One or both of those guys have to really answer to it this year.
92:31And I think if they do, and you need the line healthy, I think even like a B-plus Kyler season and a
92:37B-plus line with KOC, I think this has like top five offensive potential.
92:41Because what else is missing at that point? The line is great.
92:45I had this as like a top five line last year, healthy.
92:49And then Ryan Kelly didn't work out. He's gone.
92:52It's not quite that potential now. But if the line is good, if the quarterback is competent and you have all the
92:58weapons and a good play caller, that should work pretty well.
93:02Your defense is going to give you some turnovers and some spots there.
93:06We've talked about the schedule a few times. Sucks to not get the last play schedule.
93:11Like, there's a world where you get like November and this team is like pretty good but not quite good enough.
93:17And you're like, man, this team really shot itself in the foot last year to end the year by not getting that fourth play schedule.
93:25But here's the last reason why I think you have to be in on Minnesota at least right now.
93:31They're easily the healthiest team in the division. It's not even close.
93:35The whole thing with Minnesota is can you stay healthy?
93:38Can Kyler stay healthy? Can Derisaw stay healthy? Well, right now, they're healthy.
93:42And we just talked about... The only guy on the injury report is J.J.
93:46McCarthy. Yeah. Which, please stay. Feel free to take your time, J.J., and enjoy your stay on the injured reserve.
93:52The Packers have Micah Parsons and Tiger Crafter. They have no blocking right now.
93:56The Bears have no left tackle. The secondary is all in the hospital.
94:00The Lions are missing their center and missing both of their safeties.
94:04We just talked about all three teams in this division missing dudes right now.
94:08This is when you want Minnesota, when they are healthy.
94:12So to me, over 8.5, easiest win total bet on this podcast.
94:15To have them projected just a hair under 10.
94:18Same as you. Second highest in the division for me.
94:21And at plus 5.10 at DraftKings, really easy division bet.
94:24Where if everyone is within a win of each other, you had a win and a half.
94:29I had half a win. If everyone's that close, why wouldn't you take the longest shot?
94:34That's the healthiest team right now starting the season and kind of go from there.
94:39It's a pretty easy choice to me. Yeah. Disrespectful that they're plus 5.10 in my opinion.
94:44If everyone's healthy on their offense, I think super high floor and very high ceiling.
94:49There is a nightmare case for the defense. For sure.
94:52But I will fall back on that I trust Flores.
94:55But the way this goes south is, number one, it's been a very healthy defense the past two years, which has helped.
95:02But the way that it goes south, you mentioned some of the defensive tackles that they lost.
95:07They weren't great for them, but they were professionals and knew what they were doing.
95:11Now they're going to be relying on younger guys.
95:14And it's a comp. So if they're not ready and it's a complex defense, there's fault there.
95:19And then the injuries come because you have where you're not young there and guys who have relied on are getting older.
95:26Right. So do you see a drop off from Van Ginkle and Wilson and Cashman who are 30 plus now?
95:32But I like them bringing in Pierre. I'm hearing that Charles Demings might get some like real time at cornerback.
95:39He's flat. But the two guys to watch, in my opinion, are Caleb Banks, your first round draft pick.
95:44Can he be that guy? Is he healthy? And then, as you mentioned, Dallas Turner.
95:49He's getting glowing reports in camp, but that's camp.
95:52On the field, he has not lived up to his potential.
95:55So can he take that next step? Those are the two guys to watch to keep this defensive floor high.
96:01What's interesting is like the way the team has played its cards, they know the defense is in transition.
96:07Like they've done this on purpose. They moved on from some veterans on purpose and kind of took their lumps.
96:14They went in last year. They've splashed some big signings and brought the D tackles in.
96:18And they knew they were taking a step back.
96:21They traded Jonathan Grenard away. Like they understood what was happening here.
96:25Then Kyler Murray fell into their lap. So this is what's happening is you have a team that is kind of trying
96:32to transition to its next version of itself. They just happened to maybe get a franchise quarterback for free if things work out right for them.
96:40So I think they know what they are defensively.
96:43I think you're right that the floor could be really low on that side where looking at the depth chart here, I
96:49see one, two, three, four, five rookies that are at least like that are only too deep on the depth chart there
96:56that are going to play a role this year.
96:59And like you said, in a very complex, really aggressive system.
97:02So, yeah, you like the excitement from the guys in training camp.
97:06But if things go wrong, there are a lot of ways to go wrong.
97:10Like it could go wrong with Kyler. It could go wrong with the health and the offensive line.
97:16The defense, I think, is the most obvious spot.
97:19But just the numbers are too long here. And I think eight and a half on the win total to me is a full win too low.
97:27These teams in this division, you just like put them in a hat and pull them out.
97:32And I could see any order come out. And if that's the case, you pick the team with the longest odds.
97:39Yeah, you mentioned the rookies. That was one of my notes.
97:42Like what can the rookies get on defense? Can they pick up the floor as deep?
97:47Because you have Demings, Orange, Banks, Golday, Thomas. They all might be counted on.
97:51And especially if there are injuries, then they're going to be really counted on.
97:56And Minnesota has been fortunate on defense, at least in that department over the past couple of years.
98:01Good stuff, Brandon. I'm glad that you're seeing the NFC North the same as me.
98:06We're pretty aligned on a lot of this stuff, which is good to hear.
98:10One final order of business before we get out of here.
98:14We have our DraftKings favorite bet from the NFC East or North.
98:17I will let you do the honors first. Well, if I'm going first, I was looking at Giants division, Vikings division.
98:24But if I get to go first, I'm rocking the Vikings jersey today.
98:28I got to stick with my team. Give me Vikings to win the NFC North.
98:32I will. Let's make it a Vikings podcast. I'm going to go Vikings to make the playoffs.
98:38I think that it's too good of odds. And I agree with you on the division.
98:43Worth a shot as well. We talked about some of the questions we have of all the other teams.
98:48These teams are just not separated by that much.
98:51And I also think there's questions. If you look, we could get in a whole other discussion about the rest of the NFC.
98:58But there's also a chance that this division could end up with multiple teams around 9, 10, 11 wins and send a couple wild cards.
99:06So we'll end it with a lot of purple love.
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99:27That will do it for our divisional previews. Thank you to Sean, Anthony, Evan, and of course, Brandon.
99:33Thanks to our producers for all of the hard work getting us out there.
99:37Make sure you check out all of Brandon's stuff on all of his rankings.
99:42He's going to have the worst of first podcasts, all the great stuff that he does on the app and for us on the podcast.
99:49It was a pleasure. Thanks to all of you for tuning in.
99:53Season will be here before you know it. You can follow all of our stuff on the award-winning Action Network app.
99:59Thanks to DraftKings. We will catch you later. Cheers.
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