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2026 NFL Awards | Part 2

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 5 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 2, 2026

Published

Wed, September 2, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Daniel JonesJadarian PriceJeremiyah LoveJoe BurrowBo NixCarnell TateEmmett JohnsonFernando MendozaJayden DanielsJordyn TysonKyler MurrayLamar JacksonMakai LemonMichael Penix Jr.

Player analysis

Player insights

Bo Nix

NegativeValue99:12

The source notes that Bo Nix is not currently listed with odds for Comeback Player of the Year despite having health and injury concerns from the previous season.

Insight page

Carnell Tate

NegativeProjection30:51

Carnell Tate has first-round pedigree and could benefit from a high-volume target share from a young quarterback, similar to Malik Nabors, but his lack of high-yardage production makes him a speculative pick at 6-1.

Insight page

Daniel Jones

PositiveValue97:02

The source recommends a bet on Daniel Jones at +2,200, noting that his market price implies a 4% chance, which offers value if he performs well coming off his Achilles injury.

Insight page

PositiveValue98:20

The source recommends betting on Daniel Jones for Comeback Player of the Year, citing his long pricing as an attractive value play for a potential long-shot winner.

Insight page

Emmett Johnson

PositiveSleeper25:09

Brandon Anderson recommends a small 'nibble' on Chiefs running back Emmitt Johnson at 100-1, noting he is the current number two on the depth chart and a capable pass catcher who could see significant opportunity if Kenneth Walker misses time.

Insight page

Fernando Mendoza

NegativeValue10:42

Brandon Anderson advises against betting Fernando Mendoza for OROY at 6-1 odds because he is not currently the starter, faces a difficult schedule, and plays in a run-heavy offense with poor receiving options, making it unlikely he accumulates the necessary stats.

Insight page

Jadarian Price

NegativeRole20:48

Jadarian Price is characterized as a part-time running back, making him a less attractive betting option compared to feature backs like Jeremiah Love.

Insight page

NegativeValue28:54

Jadarian Price is a 'definite no' for Brandon Anderson at 6-1 odds, as his stock is likely to decline once Zach Charbonnet returns and his historical workload/pass-catching profile does not suggest OROY-winning production.

Insight page

Jayden Daniels

NegativeValue90:55

The source notes slight value on Jayden Daniels at 12% compared to Kyler Murray, but expresses hesitation due to the team's lack of winning potential.

Insight page

Jeremiyah Love

PositiveValue19:45

Jeremiah Love is a no-brainer pick at +550 odds. Despite an ankle sprain, his price has corrected to be even with other options, making him a strong value. He has consistent production with 20 touchdowns per year over the last two seasons, and he is expected to lead a run-heavy offense under LeFleur. With James Conner on IR, the Arizona backfield has thinned, further solidifying Love's role as a feature back.

Insight page

PositiveBreakout101:41

Brandon Anderson identifies Jeremiah Love as his favorite bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year, urging listeners not to overthink the pick and projecting a big fantasy season.

Insight page

Joe Burrow

PositiveValue98:20

The source suggests a bet on Joe Burrow for Comeback Player of the Year at 2%, noting his history of winning the award after missing games due to injury.

Insight page

PositiveValue98:20

The source suggests betting on Joe Burrow for Comeback Player of the Year, noting his history of winning the award after missing games and his current 2% prediction marker, which offers value as a long shot.

Insight page

Jordyn Tyson

NegativeInjury16:36

Jordan Tyson is an 'obvious no bet' due to a current hamstring injury and a history of health issues, though Brandon Anderson suggests monitoring his price if he nears a return later in the season.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

NegativeValue90:55

The source views Kyler Murray at 15% as correctly priced, noting that while his case for Comeback Player of the Year makes sense, there is little betting value.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

NegativeValue98:57

The source expresses interest in betting on Lamar Jackson for Comeback Player of the Year due to his injury history, but notes an inability to find available odds for him.

Insight page

Makai Lemon

PositiveUsage17:38

Makai Lemon is not a recommended bet at 18-1 because he is likely the fourth or fifth target in a run-heavy Eagles offense and has been hampered by preseason injuries.

Insight page

Michael Penix Jr.

NegativeDepth Chart100:04

The source expresses uncertainty regarding the Dolphins' starting quarterback situation between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix, stating a lack of trust in either player.

Insight page

Mike Washington Jr.

PositiveSleeper25:44

Mike Washington is a recommended long-shot bet at 50-1 due to his impressive preseason performance and the potential for increased opportunity if Ashton Gentry's ankle injury lingers.

Insight page

Patrick Mahomes

NegativeValue87:12

The source advises against betting on Patrick Mahomes for Comeback Player of the Year at 35%, arguing the price is too high for a volatile award and that he might be better suited for MVP betting.

Insight page

Tua Tagovailoa

NegativeDepth Chart100:04

The source expresses uncertainty regarding the Dolphins' starting quarterback situation between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix, stating a lack of trust in either player.

Insight page

Ty Simpson

NegativeValue14:04

Ty Simpson is not a viable bet currently as he is unlikely to play, but Brandon Anderson notes he is a 'bullseye' target if Matthew Stafford suffers a long-term injury, given the Rams' strong defense and offensive weapons.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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2:24All right. That is the ultimate kibosh. You want to bet?

2:27And we are underway! Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings.

2:31I'm Gilles Gallant, and I'm joined, as always, by NFL betting expert and futures analyst, Brandon Anderson.

2:36Now, this is part two of our deep dive into the NFL awards markets.

2:40If you missed part one, we did defensive player of the year, offensive player of the year, coach of the year, and assistant coach of the year.

2:48So if you're looking for analysis and advice on how to bet those markets, go back and listen to part one.

2:55But Brandon, we've got more NFL awards to dive into.

2:58Let's just jump right in. Offensive rookie of the year.

3:01Last year's winner, Tett McMillan, wide receiver with the Carolina Panthers.

3:04Was not the favorite, but he was around 10-1.

3:07And then this year's favorite, running back with the Arizona Cardinals, Jeremiah Love.

3:10But let's start with Tett McMillan, because I think this is important to talk about the evolution of how he ended up winning.

3:17Because he wasn't the favorite, but he got that late push with Carolina, where they ended up winning the division title.

3:24But then when you look at the history prior to Tett McMillan, a lot of quarterbacks.

3:28Jaden Daniels, CJ Stroud, Justin Herbert. And then you've got some elite wide receivers like Garrett Wilson and Jamar Chase.

3:34So when you start to look at the pattern there, all pedigree as far as drafting, all in the top 10.

3:41Talk to me a little bit more about the historical profile of offensive rookie of the year and what patterns that we

3:47should start noticing before we bet this. Yeah, so there's pretty strong patterns here.

3:51And the first one is favorites usually don't actually win this award.

3:55Only three of the last 10 winners started the season plus 800 or shorter.

3:59Jaden Daniels is one of those. Kyler Murray and Saquon Barkley, they were both like plus 150.

4:04They were practically odds on a favorite. So we kind of knew they were going to win.

4:09But usually not a favorites award. Usually is a quarterbacks award.

4:13Four of our last seven, like you just said, quarterbacks.

4:16Eight of the last 16, 11 of 21. Consistently about half of the field.

4:20And in that two-decade stretch, five receivers, five running backs.

4:23So this used to be the running back award.

4:2561% historically have been running back winners for rookie of the year offensively.

4:29But only four of the last 18. So we are trending as most of these towards the passing league and kind of reflecting that there.

4:37And like you said, draft pedigree is huge here.

4:3917 of our last 20 winners were first round picks.

4:42That's 85%. 16 out of the last 20 were top 12 picks.

4:46That's 80% in the top 12. And you're picking defensive guys in there too.

4:50So we're not even down to 12 names. And we're not counting tackles and centers and guards because, spoiler, offensive linemen aren't winning this thing either.

4:5811 of the last 20 were top nine. That's still over half.

5:02Nine of the last 20 winners. Almost half of them are top three picks.

5:06That is how much pedigree matters. Eight winners in a row.

5:09Top 10 picks. All those names you said at the top had the pedigree.

5:13They all went at the top. If you do leave the first round, you probably want a running back.

5:19Dak Prescott and Anquan Bolden, the only two non-first round not running back winners since 1992.

5:24So actually the field can narrow down pretty significantly here.

5:27Winning helps, but not necessary. Eight of our last 15 winners finished below 500, including Tett McMillan last year actually.

5:33He only had eight wins even though they won the division.

5:36Five out of our 15 won 10 wins or more.

5:39So if you're a quarterback and you win half the games, that's a clincher usually.

5:43Puka Nakua, Brock Bowers, they had historic rookie seasons.

5:46They lost to winning quarterbacks. So if you win as a quarterback, it's a bonus.

5:51If you lose, it's not necessarily the end of the world.

5:54And then stats. You're going to have to produce some stats here.

5:58We all play fantasy, so you need some stats.

6:00Usually for a running back, we're looking at like 1,300 scrimmage yards, 10 touchdowns.

6:04A clear running back one in fantasy terms. A top 10 guy.

6:08Receiver a little more latitude there. Usually 80 catches, about 1,100 yards, eight scores.

6:12More of a fantasy receiver, two or one obviously is good.

6:15Quarterbacks, probably 4,000 combined yards, 30 touchdowns or more.

6:18A clear top 10 fantasy quarterback there as well.

6:21So here's what we want. A first round pick, hopefully a top 12 pick.

6:25As high as possible. Preferably a quarterback. And they don't necessarily need to win, but they do have to put up some stats for us.

6:32Okay. All right. So that criteria. So we want as high as possible from a pick standpoint, preferably a quarterback.

6:38Then why don't we just take Fernando Mendoza at this point?

6:42I mean, he's co-favored in some books with Jeremiah Love.

6:45Yeah. So to me, Mendoza 6-1 is a very clear no bet right now.

6:49Here's the reason. The right now is key there.

6:52Right now he's not starting. Right now he's not playing football for us.

6:55Now that preseason is done. We'll see. We haven't had an official announcement yet, so that could change even by the time you listen to this.

7:03But we don't know how long until Kirk Cousins gives him the job.

7:07Look, Cousins signed a five-year, $172 million deal with the Raiders.

7:10Okay. That's fake news. Only $20 million guaranteed. And the Raiders are only in the hook for $1.3 million.

7:16So that is not the reason to not bet Mendoza.

7:19If they think it's time, if Clint Kubiak thinks it's time, Mendoza's going to play.

7:24But when's it going to happen? Because week one would be a pretty good answer.

7:28They're home against the Dolphins. That's a pretty good way to break into the NFL.

7:33If you don't do it, then you go at the Chargers, at the Saints.

7:37Those are tough defenses. You go Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams.

7:40This is a tough schedule coming up. So where do you break in Mendoza into the lineup if it's not right away?

7:46And he's got to be on the field because we need our stats.

7:50And 13 of our last 15 winners played 15 games or more.

7:54So even if we lose a couple games off the bat, we're already going to lack the season-long numbers.

7:59And history says we're just lacking playing time and opportunity.

8:02There's only one quarterback since 2010 that even got votes for this award.

8:06Not even a winner. Just any votes at all with single-digit games.

8:10So if Mendoza doesn't play half the season, he is DOA for this award.

8:14I don't think it will be that long. But even if he starts tomorrow for game one, you got to run heavy offense.

8:21You got a guy who's probably not going to run a lot himself.

8:25So that hurts the stats. You've got terrible receivers.

8:28Probably second worst in the league. That's our co-favorite.

8:30I just can't see that right there. Right now, the price can only go one direction as he doesn't play and other guys do play.

8:38I just can't bet Mendoza right now. Later on, we'll consider him.

8:41Wouldn't shock me to win. Can't bet it now.

8:44And while we're here, Ty Simpson, the other first-round quarterback, can't bet him.

8:48He's probably not going to play at all this season.

8:51Now, color me intrigued if we got a long-term Stafford injury early.

8:54We'll come back to that. But as a number 13 pick, that's another note.

8:59But you can't bet guys that aren't playing. Hard to win on the bench.

9:03Yeah, so the quarterback market is pretty difficult to pinpoint here, given the fact that if we're looking for a high pick,

9:09you either got Mendoza or Simpson, because those are the only two quarterbacks taken in the first round.

9:15So at the top of the list, though, it doesn't have that flashy name.

9:19Like Jeremiah Love, obviously, I think is the flashiest name.

9:22But once you get past the top three picks, it doesn't feel great.

9:26Is there other players near the top that you would just rule out completely for this award market?

9:31Yeah, I'll be honest. I ended up coming to a name that we'll get to that I actually really like to bet for this award.

9:39But as I started going through this list, I was like, Mendoza Award sucks this year.

9:43I don't want to bet anyone for this. Like every name I'd come to, I'd be like, no, no, no.

9:49Cross them off. No, no. Okay, wait. Who's left?

9:52Who do I bet for this? So let's cross off some names.

9:56Let's hurt some feelings. Jordan Tyson. You got no hamstring going on over there.

10:00You're the number eight pick. Saints receiver. Electric receiver.

10:03Can't stay healthy his whole career and already is on IR with hamstring injury.

10:07Obvious no bet right now. That will say Odell Beckham Jr.

10:10won this award in 12 games late in the season.

10:13You can put up some big numbers in a hurry.

10:16He's hurt right now and Olave is healthy, but we know Olave gets hurt.

10:20I'm not crossing Tyson off the list. Like, don't be surprised if we come to you on like October 1st and we're like, you know what?

10:28Tyson's like 150 to one. And it looks like he might be back in a week.

10:33Let's take a shot here. Not right now. Makai Lemon, another receiver in the first round for the Eagles.

10:3818 to one. Not happening for me. The top 20 pick.

10:42He's probably like the fourth or fifth target there.

10:44If that. He's been hurt in the preseason. He's not really getting integrated in.

10:49You get a run heavy offense and you're not even high on the passing list.

10:53That's a no thanks. The Jets. Two first round picks.

10:56Two no's from me. Omar Cooper, the receiver. He's had a rough training camp.

11:00He's barely even on the field. Kenyon Sadiq. You know we're not betting a tight end.

11:05That's not how this award goes. So no and no on those guys.

11:09And then here's where we really hurt some feelings.

11:12We love our training camp buzz guys, right? We love our hard knock guys that we're watching.

11:17These are the guys that attract bets every year.

11:19And they're not. There's just no history of those guys winning this award.

11:23So let's go down the list. Dejan Stripling. Sorry.

11:26Not my guy. 11 to one. He's fifth in odds right now.

11:30He's not even a first round pick. I know you want Niners wide receiver one.

11:34But do you? Because you still have McCaffrey and Kittle.

11:37You're still like wide receiver three. No Niners receiver at a thousand yards either the last two years.

11:42So even if he's ahead of Mike Evans and all those guys, he can be valuable if you're in fantasy.

11:48Sure enough. But that's not rookie of the year numbers.

11:51I can't get there with him. 11 to one is crazy for a guy that's not a first round pick.

11:57Denzel Boston for the Browns. So let's throw in Casey Concepcion.

12:01Boston's round two. So we already don't like that.

12:03He was a training camp buzz guy. Concepcion's look better in the games.

12:07They're fighting each other. They're fighting Jerry Judy for targets for now.

12:11I think Judy might go eventually. But you have a bad offense with no quarterback.

12:15You had Harold Fannin who led the team in catches last year.

12:19So top receiver for the Browns last year was Judy with like 50 and 600.

12:23That's the upside we're chasing? No thank you. I don't need that at 20 or 25 to one.

12:29Caleb Douglas. Dolphins. He might be their top receiver.

12:31Who cares? That's not the rookie of the year in the Dolphins.

12:35Malik Lewis is going to win me rookie of the year.

12:38There's like five other guys there. Run heavy offense.

12:41Low production. Third round. Can't get there. Jacoby Lane 22 to one in Baltimore.

12:45What are we doing? This day three pick. I'm not betting you at 22 to one.

12:50These training camp warriors. They don't win this. Jacoby Lane probably a run heavy team.

12:55You're at least behind Zay and Andrews. You're going to run first offense.

12:58I'm not doing that 22 to one. Cyrus Allen.

13:01I mean like sure. I would like to have your top target if you're the Chiefs, but Travis Kelsey ain't dead.

13:07Like he's going to get some looks and Rasheed Rice is getting the underneath stuff.

13:12I think Allen could be the man beater. I think he gets some touchdowns.

13:16Again, I'll look at some of these guys in the fantasy.

13:19You could get some value picks there. I think these are sucker bets.

13:23I'm sorry. I think these are the guys that you either got them three weeks ago before the buzz at some value.

13:30But if you're looking at it now, 22 to one on a day three Jacoby Lane, I can't do it.

13:36You can't be betting this far down the list.

13:38Pedigree matters here. All right. So we pretty much have torn apart the entire odds board at this point.

13:44I feel like every single guy has an asterisk.

13:47It's like, yeah, but there's clearly got to be some sleepers that you're probably considering down the odds board that we just haven't discussed yet.

13:54Is there any that we should consider? Yeah, a few names to mention here.

13:58Guys, at least to watch for now. And then one that I will bet.

14:03Ty Simpson. I mentioned him before. No bet right now.

14:06But the first glimmer of Matthew Stafford long-term injury, that back is cropping up again.

14:10Here's a bullseye. We love a quarterback for the award.

14:13You can put in me or you at quarterback and we might win 12 games for the Rams with that defense and all those weapons.

14:21That alone, the winning pedigree probably wins you this award, especially in what looks like a weak field.

14:26So keep an eye on Ty Simpson. Other quarterbacks.

14:29Jackson back 28-1 for the Cardinals. Drew Aller 100-1 for the Steelers.

14:32I think a couple of our guys at Action were in on Jack Strand.

14:36Wouldn't be surprising if the undrafted guy out of Moorhead, Minnesota, near my hometown in Fargo.

14:41Love my guy Jack Strand. The odds are kind of down now, but still 125-1.

14:46If those guys get on the field, you have to at least consider it.

14:50Quarterbacks win this award. There's not really a good quarterback option this year.

14:54We just basically name them all. So I have my eye on those guys.

14:58The one position down the board that does win this, like we said, is running back.

15:03So that to me is less talent as much as opportunity.

15:06I'm actually going to bet two of these guys.

15:09Give me Chiefs running back Emmitt Johnson. 100-1. Just a nibble.

15:12Like a tenth of a unit nibble. Kenneth Walker never stays healthy.

15:16And he's the guy there. And Mary Di Mercado just got caught yesterday.

15:19He was a surprise. Emmitt Johnson, the rookie, is number two on the depth chart for the Kansas City Chiefs.

15:25And he's a good pass catcher. And he had a huge season for Nebraska.

15:301,450 yards, 250 carries, 12 touchdowns. He led the conference.

15:33If you're that close, one Kenneth Walker hamstring pop away from the Chiefs starting running back at 100-1, you're probably not going to win.

15:40But I'll take a shot for 100-1. The guy that I'm surprised is this low with all the training camp buzz is Mike Washington with the Raiders.

15:48He's been lighting it up every preseason game. They're averaging over seven yards a carry.

15:52And we know we had that brief panic day.

15:55Ashton Gentry got hurt and was out for his career.

15:58Everyone drafted Mike Washington really high. And then Gentry was fine.

16:01And it looks like he's got an ankle that probably is not even a high ankle sprain.

16:06What if it is? Or what if he comes back and rolls that ankle again?

16:11And now you get the running back, the guy in the Kubiak system.

16:15Mike Washington is not winning this with Gentry around.

16:17But what if Gentry gets hurt a little bit longer?

16:20And Washington has looked awesome. 50-1. I'm going to add that to the portfolio.

16:25To me, this is a must-have long shot ticket if you're a portfolio kind of guy.

16:29Because the upside is really obvious with Mike Washington.

16:32All right. So some long shot bets. But I still feel like there's some unearthed discussion here at the top.

16:38Because right now, it's not like a slam dunk favorite at the top.

16:42Like a Jeremiah Love or a Fernando Mendoza. There's a couple other guys with some high pick pedigree.

16:47You've got Carnell Tate with the Titans. Not necessarily a high pick.

16:51He was drafted in the first round. But Jadarian Price is probably going to have the backfield all to himself in Seattle.

16:58And they're all kind of around, you know, 6-1.

17:00So, again, like, I'm just going to put you on the spot.

17:04Tell me. If you had to bet one of these three guys, who should I do?

17:09Who should I bet? I'm going to bet one of these three guys.

17:12And I kind of came full circle because I deeply considered all three of them at one point.

17:18Coming out of the draft, I was like, man, I don't know.

17:21Jeremiah Love, he's going to be the super short favorite.

17:24And he's going to have all those other guys in the backfield.

17:28Tyler Algier and James Conner and all these other guys.

17:31And what if we look down the board at Jadarian Price?

17:34You know, because Kenneth Walker is gone. And Zach Charbonnet is out to start the year.

17:39And shouldn't Price get some opportunity? And here we are.

17:42And he's a guy that looks like he's going to be a week one starter.

17:47He probably gets a big load as the first running back on a run of first team.

17:52He didn't get a huge workload in the last couple of years.

17:55120 carries, 700 yards basically to the last two years.

17:58So what can he do? Do we want a huge workload with this guy?

18:02Does Seattle want that? I don't know if they do necessarily.

18:06He also caught 15 balls the last three years combined.

18:09So not going to get necessarily a lot of pass catching here.

18:12Kenneth Walker was RB1 of two guys last year with Charbonnet.

18:16Kenneth Walker finished last season before getting the huge contract.

18:19221 carries, just over 1,000 yards and five touchdowns.

18:21Played all 17 games as the lead back on a Kubiak Super Bowl team.

18:25If that's the upside on Jadarian Price, that's not winning rookie of the year most years.

18:30And look, the price is wrong on this one.

18:33If I can just go with the obvious pun waiting here.

18:36I thought this was the pick and it maybe was in like April or May.

18:416-1 and basically a co-favorite here. Charbonnet comes back later.

18:44Stock can only go down in Jadarian Price. This is a definite no for me.

18:48I can't believe how short this one has got.

18:51I thought that was going to leave me on Carnell Tate.

18:54I thought by default, the two sweetest words in the English language, that was going to be my pick.

19:00Number four draft pick. There is the pedigree. But he's never even caught 900 yards in his season.

19:05Last year, Titans leading receiver, Chigakonquo. 56 catches for 560 yards.

19:08That led the team last year. I think the case for Tate is you maybe hope you get a Malik Nabors type thing.

19:15Because Brian Dable, Malik Nabors had a huge season as a rookie.

19:19And he just peppered him. Dable loves to just kind of like keep running the same play again.

19:24If it ain't broke, just keep spamming. And Cam Ward, not great as a quarterback.

19:29Young quarterbacks like to pepper the same guy over and over again.

19:32Kind of makes sense. Six to one. But then it came all the way back around.

19:37So we have Price. And we have Tate. And we have Mendoza.

19:41And then we have Jeremiah Love. Basically priced equal to those same other three guys.

19:45And my whole thing started as, well, Love is so obvious.

19:49He's the awesome running back. He's the best. Everyone knows he's going to have a huge carry.

19:54He's going to get all the work. But his price is so short.

19:57Well, now his price is not short. He got the ankle sprain.

20:01Now he's priced evenly. And I think this is a no-brainer pick.

20:05Of these options here, it's Jeremiah Love all the way.

20:08Plus $550 at DraftKings. We know the stats have been there at Notre Dame.

20:1220 touchdowns a year the last two years. We know with a draft capital investment, that's pretty much all is historically meant.

20:18You're going to get the carries. We know with LeFleur.

20:21Wrong LeFleur. But you're going to get a run-heavy system.

20:24And James Conner. He's on IR now. That backfield that looked like a bit of a problem got a lot thinner.

20:31You still have Algier in the way. So we know that from B.

20:35John Robinson era. But I think you have to like Jeremiah Love here.

20:38The left side of the offensive line in Arizona is really pretty good.

20:42And now that you're looking at the pricing and you get Price and Mendoza, you have part-time running back, Jadarian Price.

20:49You have backup quarterback, Fernando Mendoza. And you have Titans receiver, Carnell Tate.

20:52Wait. Suddenly, Jeremiah Love feature running back. Sounds pretty good.

20:55Thank you very much. Compared to those three options.

20:58I think this price is crazy. I know the angle is factoring.

21:02It's a long season. And maybe you wait. And maybe you can get a slightly cheaper price in a week or two

21:08if he misses the first couple games. But we haven't heard that.

21:12What if he just starts right now as a week one starter and is good to go?

21:17Ashton Gentry last year was 3-1 opening day. As a very similar sort of case.

21:21Not the best team. Lead running back. And look, Gentry didn't win.

21:25We're getting double the price here. It's insane that he is priced even to these other guys.

21:30It's a very easy pick. After all that, I'm just betting the favorite because the price is not correct on Jeremiah Love.

21:37Give me the favorite. Plus $5.50. Okay. 15-minute discussion.

21:39We go with the favorite. Jeremiah Love is the winner of the 2026 Offensive Player of the Year.

21:45That is what we are betting for Offensive Rookie of the Year from Brandon.

21:49But let's move now to Defensive Rookie of the Year where you did nail this one last year.

21:54Carson Schwessinger with the Browns at 35-1. And the favorite this year with the Buccaneers, Reuben Bain around plus 475.

22:00Okay. So Schwessinger, first off, congratulations on winning that.

22:03I think the one thing I would say is I don't know if coming into the year that profile would have fit

22:10the historical narrative of who usually wins this award.

22:12But talk to me a little bit about how we approached Defensive Rookie of the Year.

22:17Was Schwessinger like an outlier or is that more falling in line with the principles and themes that you like to look

22:24for for Defensive Rookie of the Year? Yeah, he was an outlier.

22:27He broke a lot of my rules last year.

22:30Even we kind of admitted that going in when we picked him.

22:34But I didn't love the option. And so I gave him a shot last year.

22:38But we'll talk about the outlier ways as we come along here, starting with Defensive Awards.

22:43We want pass rushers. That's been consistent for me.

22:45Six of our last 10 winners, not including Schwessinger, have been pass rushers with seven sacks or more.

22:51He did not hit that last year. We've had three corners in there.

22:55We've now had the one linebacker. Usually I want a pass rusher.

22:58So he broke that rule. We also want draft pedigree.

23:01Same as offense. And every single Defensive Rookie of the Year this century has been a top 40 draft pick.

23:07Schwessinger did hit that, but he was not a first rounder.

23:1122 of 26 guys here have been first round picks.

23:14He was top of the second, but that's still not a first round pick.

23:1820 of 26 have been top 15. Heck, six winners since 2010 have just been top five picks.

23:23Basically like the top defensive guy off the board for the most part.

23:27So Schwessinger was not a first round pick, not a pass rusher.

23:31He also didn't win. Winning has started to come into play.

23:34Six of our last nine of one, 10 games or more.

23:37Again, not for Schwessinger last year. So I think he was just a big outlier.

23:42And here, interestingly, we do actually want a favorite from the betting odds.

23:4610 of our last 14 started 11 to one or shorter.

23:49So again, we kind of know with defense what we're getting.

23:52We want the guys that we think are supposed to be good because they're probably going to be good.

23:58So that's what we want. And the best last thing here is eight of our last nine winners joined a team that

24:04was bottom quarter of the league in points per game and finished top half after that.

24:09So a defense that is sort of a team recognition too.

24:12For the record, here is your bottom quarter of the league points per game.

24:17Don't have to tell you who's first. It's the Cowboys and last from last year, Jets, Bengals, Cardinals, Titans, Commanders, Giants, and Raiders.

24:24So that's the setup. We love somebody who joined a bottom defense, probably why they're drafting high.

24:29We love a high draft pick and we love somebody that racks up some sacks for us.

24:34Okay. So I think I pretty much got the idea.

24:37So Schwessinger, we both agree, a bit of an outlier, but again, the price, we still wanted to bet that at those odds.

24:44But if we're going to basically eliminate that this was an outlier and we're going to take away linebackers or just secondary, we're looking at pass rushers.

24:52So I feel like we can cross a lot of names off the list right now, right?

24:57Yeah. You know how we do. Let's run through some of the names.

25:01I really want to talk myself into Arville Reese from the Giants.

25:04Heaven help me how much Giants love I have this year.

25:07But plus 850 at DraftKings. Top five draft picks.

25:10So we get the pedigree. He's going to play next to Tremaine Edmonds.

25:14Last year, Denard Wilson's rookie linebacker, Cedric Gray, had 164 tackles.

25:17The exact spot Reese is going to fill. And we just saw a linebacker win this award.

25:22But guess what? It wasn't Cedric Gray. He wasn't even in the mix over there.

25:27So here we have Reese, probably the most gifted defender in the draft.

25:31He actually had six and a half sacks last year too.

25:34So maybe you get some splash plays. It's a little bit harder with all those Giants pass rushers.

25:39They're probably going to soak up a lot of those.

25:42No career interceptions. No career forced fumbles. I need splash plays.

25:46I don't want linebackers. So it's a tough pass.

25:48I think there's a slight amount of value at plus 850.

25:52Sonny Stiles, the other high draft pick linebacker. He's going to replace Bobby Wagner in Washington.

25:56So a lot of tackles there for the taking.

25:59Again, I don't want a linebacker here. I'm sorry.

26:02I think last year is the outlier and the exception that proves the rule.

26:06Washington defense, they fit the bad criteria, but they're going to fit it after this year too.

26:11So I don't want to invest there. If you do want a linebacker and you want that day two linebacker, there's a lot of options actually this year.

26:19Jacob Rodriguez with the Dolphins have been a very popular pick here.

26:23Starting middle linebacker. Halfley has been good with linebackers.

26:26Awful defense in, awful defense out. They were last place for us.

26:29Not a first round pick. Can't do that at 15 to 1 at DraftKings.

26:34This is too short when we know how much pedigree matters here.

26:37CJ Allen for the Colts. Josiah Trotter for the Bucs.

26:40A lot of linebackers on day two that could fit here.

26:43And maybe if Schlesinger is the new meta, maybe that's the way to go.

26:48I'm still big on him as the outlier. Another name I had a really hard time passing on.

26:53Caleb Downs. Your guy with the Cowboys. Number 11 pick.

26:56He's got the pedigree, but we're not picking a safety for an award.

27:00We've never had a safety win the award. Again, I don't know if Downs is a splash guy.

27:05I think he is the button up the back end kind of guy for Christian Parker.

27:10He has one and a half sacks his entire career.

27:13Two picks each year. Three years of school. He's going to button up the defense and help them be much better.

27:19And the Cowboys should improve a lot this year.

27:22But they got a lot of guys who are going to get some credit over there.

27:27Plus 750. It's too short of a number. We don't see safeties win these awards.

27:31I can't do it. Mansour Dallon from Kansas City.

27:34Alumda won DraftKings. A little bit easier pass there.

27:37I think he's going to be really good, actually.

27:39I think he'd be a stud for them. But not a splash guy.

27:43Eight interceptions. Four years for him. Not a guy who's going to get sacks.

27:47We do get some corners for this award if you just come in.

27:51But I'm looking for pass rushers. So we'll skip the lane.

27:55We'll skip down. Skip those linebackers. I'm just going to stick to the formula and go with edge rushers.

28:00All right. Let's go for the game wreckers then.

28:03Pass rushers. Right now, favorites at the top. We talked about them.

28:07Bucks edge. Reuben Bain dropped all the way to 15.

28:09And then David Bailey, who went number two with the Jets.

28:13Um, those would probably be the two that would fit the criteria.

28:16But is there other pass rushers that could maybe jump into that mix?

28:20Yeah, those are really the top two guys on my board.

28:24So just a note on a few other names here that I'm not going to bet off the edge.

28:29Akeem Mezador for the Chargers. 15 to 1. 22nd pick in the draft.

28:33He's old, man. He's 25 going into his rookie season.

28:36He's played six seasons of college ball. Only had five sacks one time.

28:40So I don't love that. And he's going to have to play with Khalil Mack and with Tupoluto and, uh, just a

28:47team that is moving in the wrong direction there.

28:49And he's not going to get a ton of time there.

28:53Malachi Lawrence on your team. The Cowboys got picked right after Mezador.

28:56He's going to be behind Rashawn Gary and Ezra Raku.

28:59They went on and got Von Miller. A lot of names there to stand out against, including Caleb Downs, who we just mentioned.

29:06I don't know if I love that for him.

29:0927 to 1. Keldrick Falk. End of the first round for the Titans.

29:1310 sacks in three years at Auburn. Only two last year.

29:16I love that he's playing for Robert Sala. Robert Sala is a pretty good guy as far as defensive coaching, bringing you, uh, Jermaine Johnson.

29:23He's got him there and probably will be the top sack guy.

29:27I like that for him. But Falk has been injured in camp.

29:31Shoulder injury. He's 40 to 1. And I think that's wise because he's sort of slipped down the rankings as he's gone through the injury.

29:38Two sleepers here. I'm not going to bet, but I'll keep an eye on just because edge rush.

29:43If we're taking a name past the first round, Cassius Howell.

29:47For the Bengals, 50 to 1. 41st pick of the draft.

29:50He had 27 sacks in college. This is the team that just lost Trey Hendrickson.

29:54And if we think the Bengals defense gets better despite losing your guy, the pass rusher, somebody else is going to have to make some plays pass rushing.

30:03Maybe it's him. And then the team that got Trey Hendrickson, Baltimore Ravens, Zion Young, 100 to 1.

30:0845th pick in the draft. Here we got Trey on one side.

30:12You finally get your pass rush, but they still need someone on the other side.

30:16And there you get Jesse Minter's defense. So I love a Minter defense.

30:20He's had multiple guys with over five sacks each of the last two years.

30:24Maybe that's Zion Young and he catches our eye early.

30:27But like you said on the last one, 10 minutes later, we're back to the two names.

30:32I think it has to be one of those two names.

30:36Ruben Bain or David Bailey. Ruben Bain is the favorite.

30:39I don't think he should be. I think he is the correct second favorite.

30:43He had nine and a half sacks last year.

30:4611 their previous two years. He's a great pass rusher.

30:49And we know you can't run on the bucks.

30:51So you're going to have to pass. Yaya Diaby is a really good pass rusher.

30:56So that probably means some single teams for Bain on the other side.

31:00Todd Bowles does not have a lot of high sack numbers.

31:03And that's a problem for me here. Yaya had seven last year.

31:06Kalijah Cancy had seven and a half the year before.

31:09Yaya had seven and a half the year before that.

31:12Beat Avea six and a half. That's not a lot.

31:15It's maybe just enough if that's what Bain gets.

31:18But he might even be the leader there. He might only get like four or six there.

31:23Bowles tends to sort of spread out the numbers, right?

31:26Spread the love and everyone do things. Bain's missed a little time as well with an AC sprain.

31:32So I like him. I don't love him. So in the end, I'm just going to take the top defender on the board.

31:38Give me David Bailey for the Jets. Five to one.

31:41The number two pick in the draft. The first defender off the board.

31:45Again, the Jets are a team most have bottom of the league.

31:49I have them league average. I think they can take a surprising leap there under Aaron Glenn with that defense.

31:55Surprisingly solid run D. So hopefully that means a little more chance for some pass rushing.

32:00Last season, the Jets had an eight sack season from Will McDonald.

32:03So could Bailey replicate that? He led the nation with 14 and a half sacks at Texas Tech last year.

32:09We saw Aaron Glenn in Detroit have Aiden Hutchinson break out as a rookie of the year runner-up and get to some double-digit sack seasons there.

32:17To me, David Bailey is a bullseye. If he can produce the way the Jets need him to, seven sacks should be in range.

32:24Improving defense should be in range. We don't need to necessarily have a huge number of wins here if we can get the sacks, hopefully.

32:32So we saw him get a sack in the preseason against the Steelers.

32:36He's looked pretty good to me. I don't love this field overall.

32:39I'm going to take David Bailey, just top name on the board, five to one, and just hope that the pedigree works out.

32:46And I think it's important to note too, like again, this is your preseason bet, right?

32:51Like as the season goes on, the portfolio expands.

32:53You maximize your positions in different places. So again, make sure to tune in to Action Network Podcast.

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37:46DraftKings, the crown is yours. Alright, let's keep going with our awards discussion for the NFL season of 2026.

37:52And we're going to look now at Protector of the Year.

37:55And the 2025 winner of this award was Joe Tooney.

37:58And if you were a listener to this podcast last season, you know that Brandon gave out Joe Tooney as the winner of this award.

38:06This year, the favorite is left tackle for the Lions, Panay Sewell.

38:09And I wanted to bring up the fact that congratulations, Brandon, on winning this again because this is only the second year of this award.

38:17So to be able to nail a 40 to 1 out of the gate, obviously, kudos to you.

38:22But that being said, it's hard to make a profile like a historical context to this because, again, we only have a one-year sample.

38:29So what do you take from last year's results?

38:32Like how do you use last year's results to approach this year with Betting Protector of the Year?

38:38Yeah, we tiptoe in because we just don't know a lot on this award yet.

38:42We nailed it last year, but we'll say we got a little lucky last year.

38:46You don't know what you're betting on going into the season, so we'll take the win.

38:51We do know we had six finalists. Tackles, Garrett Bowles and Panay Sewell.

38:55Guards, Joe Tooney and Quinn Miners. Centers, Creed Humphrey and Aaron Brewer.

38:59Now that's interesting because we had two at each position.

39:02That reflects the panel. This award is not chosen by our usual panel of 50 voters.

39:07There is a panel of six distinguished offensive linemen who are retired, two tackles, two guards, and two centers on that panel.

39:13That's what they chose here. And it's interesting because typically you would expect probably just all tackles.

39:18Tackles are what dominate our offensive line rankings discussions usually.

39:21But the guards are getting love. A guard won last year.

39:24The centers are getting love. Two tackles, two guards.

39:27We play those on offensive line. We only play one center.

39:30We got two centers on the panel and two in our finalists.

39:34So I'm actually looking even maybe could centers get a little extra nudge up in the value here.

39:39Notable, I think, that Joe Tooney won last year as the senior member of that kind of group of veterans.

39:45He was the name brand version there, either him or Panay Sewell.

39:49So I think that's kind of obvious, similar to defense here where it's like we're going to pick the guy we all

39:56think is best at the end of the day, right?

39:59Even our panel of esteemed experts, they're probably going to do that.

40:02I kind of thought it might be a legacy pick last year.

40:06We talked about Trent Williams, Lane Johnson, guys like that.

40:09I still think that that makes sense as a newer award.

40:12But what we said last year is what do we want?

40:15We want a known name. We want a winning team.

40:18We want a great line. Well, I think we checked all three boxes.

40:22Joe Tooney is a name we knew. Came over from the Chiefs.

40:26The Bears won a bunch of games last year.

40:28The line was really good. There we hit the winner.

40:31So I think that's the profile we stick with here.

40:34Kind of like defense. Pick the name you know is good on a team that's good so they actually matter.

40:40Great offensive line. And I will say, unfortunately, the odds were much sharper this year than they were last year.

40:46I do the whole exercise where I kind of make my list and my odds.

40:51And I looked at the books and it's kind of like, shoot, that's my list.

40:55Like, darn. Normally, I go back to the assistant coach.

40:58I have a completely different list on that one.

41:01This one, a lot of guys like Creed Humphrey, his odds basically are cut in half this year.

41:06There are a lot of guys whose odds slashed in half.

41:10I don't think books necessarily loved cashing out those Joe Tooney 40 to ones last year.

41:14So I think we know what we're looking for here.

41:17And because of that, we ended up with like nine or ten guys to narrow the list to pretty quickly.

41:23Oh, okay. All right. So if there's nine to ten guys, I'm going to assume it's not just one through ten on the odds board.

41:31There's clearly going to be some long shots here.

41:34But this is an exercise that we've done with a couple of awards so far where we just, we're not necessarily going

41:40to ask who do you think is going to win, but who do you think has absolutely no chance to win?

41:46So who should we cross off here right off the top, just given what we know?

41:51Yeah, not necessarily no chance to win, but no bets for me.

41:55So let's start with Jordan Maialata. Maybe a surprising one.

41:58We're going to go prediction markets on this one.

42:00So he's coming in at 7%. Better run protector than pass.

42:04Why the guard has an elite tackle? I don't disagree with that.

42:07Is he going to win this award in what now looks like Lane Johnson's last season?

42:12I don't know if this is a legacy award, but you're getting it to the other tackle on Lane Johnson's team as a retirement gift.

42:20I don't see that happening. Lane is an option.

42:22Jordan, I think, is not. We talked about the Chargers guys, Joe Alt and Rayshon Slater.

42:27That interior offensive line is going to be a tough lift.

42:30There's not a lot of help for those two.

42:33They're already banged up. Slater's not even back yet.

42:36And you get two stud tackles on the same line, so you're kind of stealing credit from each other, splitting the vote a little bit.

42:43Alt's at 12%. That's an easy no bet for me.

42:46That's way too high. Quinn Miners, Denver guard. He was a finalist last year.

42:50Garrett Bowles, everyone agrees, is the better offensive lineman on that team, who was also a finalist.

42:55Can't give it if you're not even the top guy on your team.

42:59Joe Tooney, his odds are pretty short again. Come on.

43:02We're making an award and giving to the same guy both years out of the gates.

43:07I don't see that happening. Deion Dawkins for the Bills.

43:10He actually helped create this award. He literally helped push for it and get it created.

43:15You can't nepotism the award back to Deion Dawkins after that.

43:18I think they know not to give that to him.

43:21And then guys even like Chris Lindstrom for the Falcons at guard.

43:25Colton Miller, tackle for the Raiders. Aaron Brewer, center for the Dolphins.

43:28Kind of hipster names. I like to look smart saying these names.

43:32I think those are pretty good linemen. They're not going to win.

43:36You're not going to win and get a lot of recognition on the Falcons, especially the Raiders and Dolphins.

43:41So Brewer actually even was a finalist last year.

43:44I think you could get a finalist here. We don't get the cash money for finalists.

43:49We need a winner. All right. So Joe Tooney being a guard did win it.

43:53But from the discussion, it just kind of sounds like a lot of guards were not really on board with here.

43:59But tackle, left tackle is obviously the most important position on the line, especially if you're a right-handed quarterback.

44:05But Penai Sewell, kind of makes sense for him to be the favorite.

44:09He's been all pro at right tackle a few times.

44:12Now moving over to the left side. Talk to me about your top nine and just like Penai Sewell.

44:18How would you approach this then? And who are we looking at?

44:21Yeah. So Sewell's the favorite, 17%. And you got to know I'm not going to be super excited to go 17% on

44:28an award that we don't have a lot to go off of here.

44:32So he was the favorite last year in this award as well.

44:35I thought he should not have been the favorite then.

44:38I think he should not be the favorite now.

44:41I think he might be the best offensive lineman.

44:44But still have to consider the context. And the context is you're switching from the right side to the left.

44:50Now left side is more valuable. So you get some narrative build in there.

44:54But it could be a tougher job. You're doing a little bit of a different job this year.

44:59And we've talked about the lines a lot. The offensive line was number one two years ago.

45:04They're number 17 for me during the season with no Cade Mays at center.

45:09A lot of change. Worky right tackle Blake Miller.

45:11Detroit going the wrong direction. I can't invest in a unit that I think is going the wrong direction for a team

45:18I'm not looking to invest in as 70% favorite.

45:20So I can't do it with Panay Sewell. As far as the interior linemen, I do look there because I think there's value.

45:27We got Tooney last year. I've talked about Creed Humphrey.

45:30He is the number one center in the league with a bullet.

45:34We like the Chiefs line. They're trending up. Books have sniffed that out a little bit.

45:39So I'm seeing 7% on prediction markets for him.

45:41He was double that last year. We picked him last year.

45:45They've sniffed that one out a little bit. I will take one guy here.

45:49My top guard this year, Quentin Nelson for the Colts.

45:52Coming in at a 4% prediction market. He is presumed maybe the best guard in the league.

45:57As good as anyone. Future Hall of Famer. On the best run blocking line in the league with the Colts.

46:03Remember, this was our number three offensive line. And if they run the ball like last season, if they have a big

46:09year, I think he could be in the mix very easily.

46:13No one would be surprised to see him be a finalist.

46:16And then he could win there. So 4%. I think he's priced too low when we just saw a guard win.

46:22So that's the only interior guys for me. But Quentin Nelson will be our first bet as a 4% prediction market.

46:29Okay. So one thing I wanted to bring up, just the fact that you brought up the Indianapolis Colts so that they were your third ranked team.

46:37For anybody who listens to the offensive line rankings, one team that you were really high on this year, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

46:43I have to assume there is a player there, maybe one or two, that are on your board and maybe even consideration for betting.

46:50Definitely. That's going to be my favorite as we get to it.

46:54So we are at one, two, three, four, five, six names left out of my top nine.

46:59They're all tackles. So let's run through them and we'll get to that Tampa guy you're getting to as my pick at the end.

47:06Lane Johnson, I mentioned him a lot. I think an obvious choice for this award, especially as he's retiring, you get the legacy award there.

47:14Still an elite pass blocker. Still could be the number one offensive line in the league, even though I'm a touchdown on them.

47:21The metrics have slid a little bit on Lane Johnson.

47:24He always missed a couple of games. 10%, just a little bit too high.

47:28These numbers are not far off, but I can't get there at 10%.

47:32The guy I would pick on legacy is Trent Williams.

47:35He was my bet last year. And if we're going legacy, why not Trent?

47:39It could be his last year, any year at age 38.

47:42He plays through injury usually, not a critique of Lane Johnson, but Trent is almost always out there.

47:48And his metrics have been awesome. He's arguably better than Lane Johnson at this point and doesn't have a mylotta to steal the credit.

47:55He's the only guy blocking in San Francisco a lot of the time.

47:59So he was my pick last year. He's 7%.

48:01We're going to run it back again with Trent Williams.

48:04He would be my number two choice. I'd rather have him as the legacy guy than Lane Johnson.

48:10A few other names here. I mentioned Garrett Bowles for Denver.

48:13He was a finalist last year. They're the number one offensive line.

48:17Kind of an obvious choice. I should be backing him.

48:20Bowles to me is more like a top 10 tackle than a number one tackle.

48:24And so 9%, I can't quite get there with him.

48:27I just think there are better names on the board.

48:30Injury names, if they stay healthy. Andrew Thomas with the Giants.

48:33Christian Derisaw with the Vikings. We know how good those guys can be.

48:37We're at like 6% Derisaw, 7% Thomas. I make them about 5%.

48:41I'm intrigued. I wanted them as sleepers. There's not really a price there for me.

48:45So I'm going to bet Trent Williams. And then my guy, the one you alluded to at the top.

48:51My number one pick here, Tristan Orfs. Clearly the best guy on the line on what I think could be the number one line in the league.

48:59And a team that I think can win 10, 12 games and win their division.

49:03So we're going to be talking about Tristan Orfs.

49:06I think this is a great way to invest in the Bucs.

49:10We talked about it with coaching that there's not a lot of great award recognitions for the Buccaneers.

49:15Dominating with the line and Tristan Orfs being awesome would be a great way to recognize them.

49:20So at 8% on the prediction markets, he's an easy buy for me.

49:24He'd be my top winner pick. So do a half unit on Orfs at 8%, half unit on Quentin Nelson at 4%,

49:31and then a quarter unit legacy pick on Trent Williams at 7%.

49:34I mean, that's three all pros right there. Like, you know, so some pretty good choices there for protector of the year

49:41with Tristan Orfs, Quentin Nelson and Trent Williams. Now let's move to comeback player of the year.

49:46This award is finicky. The criteria to this award, I feel like changes.

49:50I mean, the voters, the league has put out notices saying what is now the criteria for this.

49:55So every year I feel like you can find a leg up, but at the same time, there's people I find candidates

50:02that just won't even be considered given the new criteria that is required.

50:06So historical context, Christian McCaffrey, he won this last year, plus 400.

50:09This year, the obvious one, Patrick Mahomes. Depending on where you're looking at, he's anywhere between plus 190, plus 200.

50:15But Christian McCaffrey, I'm not sure how much of an outlier he was, but, you know, given just the fact that the

50:22year before where the, I don't know if he was ever going to be able to play again, even at a pro bowl level.

50:29And then he was able to be pretty effective last year for San Francisco.

50:33Just talk to me about Christian McCaffrey, just as far as was that kind of an outlier for McCaffrey to win and

50:40just a little bit more about the history of this award.

50:43Yeah. Like you said, it's a really tough award to get a handle on.

50:47So the one thing that we do know is we like quarterback winners.

50:51We had had seven straight quarterbacks winning this award until McCaffrey.

50:54McCaffrey actually was a huge outlier because he's only the second running back ever to win this award.

51:00Garrison Hurst the other time, and we didn't even think he would literally play football again when he won it.

51:06So this was a pretty big outlier for McCaffrey.

51:0812 of the last 17 winners still on this award, quarterbacks.

51:12Three of them pass catchers. One was a defender returning from lymphoma.

51:15So if you're not a quarterback, you pretty much like better have like a career threatening sort of injury or health scare to return from.

51:23Voters have been specifically instructed now to consider this a health award in the spirit of the award.

51:28So RIP Joe Flacco 250 to one. One of my favorite award picks we've ever cashed.

51:33You'll never take that away from us. But apparently retirement and being a couch potato was no longer a qualification for comeback player of the year.

51:41You do have to win, right? 15 of our last 16 winners have won nine games or more.

51:4614 of the 16 made the playoffs. So just very clearly a narrative award.

51:50Who came back from an injury and made a big impact on a winning team?

51:55And obviously that means you start with the quarterbacks.

51:57Obviously you start with Patrick Mahomes. Well, one person didn't get the memo about the couch in the retirement because Philip Rivers

52:04still got a vote last year for that brief stint that he was an Indianapolis Colts quarterback.

52:09But let's talk about Patrick Mahomes because it seems pretty obvious, you know, the perennial quarterback in the NFL torn ACL close to the end of the season.

52:17How much does he really have to do to win this?

52:21Because I mean, if we're even seeing 80% of Mahomes, I feel like it's a slam dunk.

52:26Am I wrong here? It feels that way. But I got burned on this one a couple of years ago where Dak

52:32Prescott had a kind of similar case. Like we saw Dak Prescott's leg mangled live on television for the Dallas Cowboys, America's team, the quarterback.

52:40And he was just like the most obvious awards pick I've ever seen.

52:44I came in all confident. We won multiple units on this.

52:47And I think that was one of the like the 17 years Joe Burrow won this award instead.

52:52It stole it away at the end of the year.

52:55So just here we are looking at this. Mahomes is 35% on the prediction markets here.

53:00That is a really high number for an award that is this goofy and wonky.

53:05And I don't whoever you are, I'd have to pick Patrick Mahomes if I had to pick somebody like this.

53:11But I can't do it at 35%. Like could this be even too low of a bar?

53:16Like would we feel almost like this is not the award for Mahomes?

53:20What if he's good and Mahomes again and competes for MVP?

53:23Would he also win comeback player of the year?

53:26I don't really know. Tom Brady won this award.

53:28Peyton Manning won this award. So it's not like it's below him.

53:32But Brady did not get MVP votes that year.

53:35Peyton was a runner-up MVP and runner-up offensive player of the year.

53:38But it's obviously been a minute for those guys.

53:41I don't know if he can win both. I think I'd actually rather invest MVP than comeback player.

53:46There's so many other guys. There's a quarterback award and there are a bunch of quarterbacks to talk about here.

53:5235%. I can't come in swinging at 30%. Like we're just done talking about it if that's the bet.

53:58And I don't think it's a good bet. And it's like six months waiting on the voters to decide that, yeah, let's

54:04just be boring and not put thought in and just do Mahomes.

54:08Like I think it probably is the right pick.

54:11But historically, that's not who's winning this. I can't do it.

54:14And with the parameters changing each year, every voter feels like they have their own principles of how they vote for this too.

54:21So the fact that Patrick Mahomes here at the top preseason probably isn't the best use at this point given these odds.

54:28But you mentioned some quarterbacks that could be in the running as well.

54:31Kyler Murray, you know, Jayden Daniels. You know, they're anywhere between, you know, plus 600, you know, plus 750.

54:37Do either of those two have enough of a case where you're feeling a little excited about maybe betting on those two?

54:44Yeah, this is another one of those like protector where it's a frustrating field.

54:48I made my list and this was my top three.

54:51It was Mahomes at the top and then it was Kyler and Daniels.

54:55Like I had them the other order. Daniels is 12% of prediction markets.

54:59Murray's at 15%. I would flip that personally. So I guess that implies slight value on Daniels.

55:04But I just don't see a lot of value here.

55:07I see this basically priced how they should be with a lot of options.

55:11Daniels, all sorts of injuries last year. Dislocated elbow.

55:14That's not fun. He looked like a future superstar.

55:16So if he just kind of looks like that again.

55:19Sure. Easy pick. Easy play the part. But the team's not good enough.

55:23So they're not going to win a lot of games.

55:26I don't know if they're going to get to nine wins this year like we think we need.

55:31And he's not going to be an MVP. So maybe this is the award for him.

55:36But I don't really want to invest in Washington, frankly, this year.

55:40Kyler Murray, I'm invested as a fan already. As a Vikings fan.

55:43Coming off the season ending foot injury. Easy enough to see the Vikings playoff case.

55:48Right? We've talked about that enough. Kyler plays the best in his career.

55:52You get this great supporting cast. You can see it.

55:55Like it makes a lot of sense. It's why the pricing is this short as it is 15%.

56:00I can't hate it. I don't see much value.

56:03I don't need this looks here. So I think these are the right three at the top.

56:08I just don't see a lot of value getting there on the names.

56:12Okay. So, but that's the top three options. Mahomes, Kyler, Jaden Daniels.

56:15Over the last couple of weeks, the buzz for the Rams defensive line, the ultimate couch potato as Aaron Donald, is apparently returning.

56:22And he's just now announced that he has signed back and the market completely shifted.

56:27Where maybe he could have been like as long as 100 to one.

56:31As soon as that news was announced, betters flocked to it.

56:34He's around plus 850 at best right now. Now, does his return impact how you're approaching this market?

56:39And just does it give you any extra thoughts about the Rams?

56:43Yeah. You are not betting here in Donald's when comeback player of the year.

56:47It's not how we do the award. We tell them to bet returning from injury.

56:52Now, not returning from glorious retirement as the greatest football defensive player of the century.

56:56That's not what the award is for. So, absolutely no bet for me.

57:00Already climbing. Prediction markets, I saw 5% last night on his return.

57:04He's up to 8% now. The voters are being specifically instructed to consider a return from injury.

57:09Not three years of enjoying life as a retired legend.

57:12And arguably, by the way, off the record, three years break without getting PED tested.

57:16Pretty good a way to maybe come back and return when you've been retired a little bit later.

57:21So, maybe enjoying that part of life a little bit as well.

57:25Off the record. I love it for the Rams, obviously.

57:28Unbelievable defensive front. Like, Miles Garrett. All those other guys.

57:31They're going to get overlooked. You know, like Young and the rest of the names there.

57:36Puna. But they're a great defensive front. Solidifies them as a clear top five defense for me.

57:41I think, actually, Donald lowers Garrett's defensive player of the year chances.

57:44We talked about that a little bit. Just like, they show up together and sort of split the vote a little bit almost, Stephen.

57:52I don't think Donald's going to win defensive player of the year on limited snaps.

57:56But, yeah. Flacco. Geno Smith with Seattle. Alex Smith with Washington.

57:59Those are guys that are coming off the bench or off the couch in Flacco's case.

58:04They're not even having odds to start the season.

58:07So, how are you going to go 35% on Mahomes when guys are coming in like week 10 as no names that

58:13don't even have odds and somehow winning this award?

58:16So, a couple names here. I'm looking at quarterbacks.

58:19We've named a bunch. There are other ones, too.

58:22Give me a little Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones, not a player I've looked to believe in coming off the Achilles.

58:28But what if I'm wrong? Everyone loves him in training camp.

58:31What if he looks pretty good and the Colts are good right off the bat?

58:35I guess Colts shirt is what I should have worn today.

58:39We don't have a Colts love on this podcast today.

58:42But if he defies the odds, we saw Kirk Cousins.

58:45We saw Aaron Rodgers off the Achilles not look good.

58:48What if Jones looks pretty good? I'm seeing him around 6% to 8% prediction markets.

58:52Kind of got a weekend push. There is a plus 2,200 out there on Daniel Jones.

58:57That's more like a 4% implied. That's a bet for me.

59:00So we'll take a little taste of Jones. And then why not just run it back with Joe Burrow?

59:06He's already won this award twice this decade. He missed eight games.

59:09He misses games every year and then comes back and wins comeback player of the year.

59:14And then he misses more games. It's just like every even year you bet Joe Burrow to win comeback player of the year.

59:21We know he's going to be good. We're not going to win a lot.

59:25He's coming back from the injuries at 2% the prediction marker right now.

59:29So it would be real dumb for him to win this same award three times in six years.

59:34It's a dumb award. Give it to me, Joe Burrow.

59:37So I'll bet Burrow. I'll bet Daniel Jones. Why can't I take Lamar Jackson?

59:42I can't find him anywhere. He missed four games.

59:44He had hamstring. He had knee injuries. He's clearly coming back from injury.

59:48He's pretty good. Why can't I take him? Where's Jackson Dart?

59:52Where's Bo Nix? There's no odds for those guys.

59:54They're coming off of plenty of health and injury stuff last year.

59:58Like, why are there not even names I can invest in out here?

60:02I'll mention the Falcons guys. I don't want them.

60:04Now, I don't even know who's going to play quarterback, Tua or Penix.

60:08And I don't trust either one of those guys.

60:11But there obviously would be names on the mix.

60:14There's so many quarterbacks here for a quarterback award.

60:16It's got to be one of them. I'll nibble a little bit.

60:20Daniel Jones and Joe Burrow at the long pricing.

60:23And just kind of set myself up and watch for long shots here.

60:27Yeah. Comeback player of the year. Like you said, the candidate might not even be listed until week eight at this point.

60:33So, all right. So, you're going to be looking at Daniel Jones preseason look for that.

60:38And, of course, what was the second guy? Daniel Jones and?

60:41Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow. The Joe Burrow Award comeback player of the year.

60:45Okay. So, all right. Now, before we get out of here, Brandon, let's get your favorite bet from today's awards here.

60:51What is your favorite bet today presented by DraftKings?

60:54Let's go all the way back to the top.

60:57Let's go with the guy that we should not be getting where we're getting him.

61:01Give me a Jeremiah Love. The guy we all know should be the pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

61:07Don't overthink it. Just take Jeremiah Love. Let's get a big season, a big fantasy season.

61:12Let's get our numbers. Let's get a winner. All right.

61:15Jeremiah Love, Offensive Rookie of the Year. And today's the day you'll want to tail this play from Brandon because it's DraftKings Game Day.

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61:33All right. Now, I want to thank you for listening to our NFL Awards episodes on the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings.

61:40And as I said at the start of part one, we're going to have another episode where we dive specifically into the NFL MVP market.

61:48So, don't miss that one later in the week.

61:51Be sure to subscribe and give us those five-star ratings and reviews wherever you listen.

61:55And don't forget to download the Action Network app if you haven't yet and use code POD20 for $20 off a year of Action Pro.

62:02So, for Brandon Anderson, I'm Jill Gallant. Thank you again for listening to the Action Network podcast.

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