2026 AFC Betting Preview | Part 2
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 33 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 24, 2026
Published
Mon, August 24, 2026
18
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
Lamar JacksonTrevor LawrenceAaron RodgersAlec PierceBrian Thomas Jr.C.J. StroudCam WardCarnell TateDaniel JonesDavid MontgomeryDerrick HenryDeshaun WatsonJoe BurrowNico Collins
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Rodgers
NegativeProjection73:31
At 42 years old, Aaron Rodgers is viewed as a declining asset who struggles under pressure and requires a quick release to avoid hits behind a shaky offensive line.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
NegativeInjury32:56
Alec Pierce is expected to step up as the alpha receiver for the Colts, but his status for Week 1 is in doubt due to injury, with the source noting that betting markets reflect a low probability of him playing.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeRole31:56
Thomas Jr. is back in the Jaguars' receiver rotation, though the team's draft strategy and potential shift toward multi-tight-end sets create uncertainty regarding his target volume compared to the previous season.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection10:17
Stroud is viewed as a high-upside quarterback despite a poor postseason finish; the market is overly fixated on that small sample. He showed promise in his rookie year and maintained solid underlying metrics like EPA per play success despite poor offensive line play, lack of a run game, and receiver injuries. He is expected to benefit from increased comfort in the offense and a potential improvement in the rushing attack.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeBust48:57
Cam Ward is coming off a disastrous rookie season with a low success rate, and there is significant skepticism regarding his ability to succeed behind a poor Titans offensive line.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveBreakout45:09
The Titans added Carnell Tate and Wondell Robinson to improve their wide receiver room, which is expected to be better than last year's unit.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveProjection30:53
Despite injury concerns, the source notes that Daniel Jones is moving well in practice and that the Colts' offense is 'quarterback-proof' under Shane Steichen, maintaining a high floor even with mediocre quarterback play.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveUsage11:48
Montgomery is expected to provide the Texans with much-needed juice in the rushing attack, which was a significant weakness for the team last year. His presence is intended to help the offense improve in short-yardage and red-zone situations.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
NegativeProjection59:07
Derrick Henry is aging, and there is a significant risk that his production could fall off or that he could suffer an injury at age 32.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeRole83:53
Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare questions why the Browns are starting Deshaun Watson instead of rebuilding, suggesting they should be looking toward the future.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection66:29
Burrow is entering the season healthy for the first time in his career with the same five starting offensive linemen returning, which provides a high ceiling for a top-five offense.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeProjection56:56
Lamar Jackson remains one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but there are growing concerns regarding his health, durability, and declining burst as he approaches age 29.
Insight pageNegativeProjection64:40
Lamar Jackson showed a decline in explosiveness and burst last year, which contributed to his struggles under pressure and a plummet in red zone efficiency; he is now 29 and dealing with an aging offensive line.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveRole11:54
Collins is considered one of the best receivers in the NFL when healthy. He remains the focal point of the Texans' passing attack, especially with the team potentially shifting toward more two-tight-end sets and needing to compensate for other receiver injuries.
Insight pageTank Dell
NegativeInjury12:02
Dell's health and ability to return to form are major variables for the Texans' offense. With Jaden Higgins injured, there is increased pressure on Dell to contribute, but his availability remains a significant concern to monitor.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeRole23:08
The source questions whether the Jaguars can maintain their rushing production without Travis Etienne, expressing doubt that his replacement, Tootin, is a better down-to-down back.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
NegativeProjection23:56
The source suggests Trevor Lawrence's strong second-half performance last season was inflated by playing against weak defenses that failed to generate a pass rush, and warns that he may look worse in the upcoming season due to offensive line concerns.
Insight pagePositiveUsage30:45
Lawrence showed growth in the second half of last season under Liam Cohen, becoming more aggressive and utilizing his legs more frequently. This shift in usage and mindset contributed to the Jaguars' offensive success.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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2:33All right? That is the ultimate kibosh. You want a bet?
2:36And we are under... What's up, Degenerate Nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.
2:42This is the NFL Divisional Preseason Preview Part 2.
2:45I'm Stuckey and joining me today, an ex-colleague and still a very good friend of mine, Anthony Dabundo, currently with The Ringer.
2:52Today, we're going to cover both of our own divisions.
2:55I'm a Ravens fan. We're going to cover the AFC North.
2:59Anthony is a Colts fan. We're going to cover the AFC South.
3:02We actually play each other week one too, which is fun.
3:06One at a time. If you missed it, Evan and I covered the AFC East and the AFC West in Part 1.
3:13Next up, we'll knock out the two NFC episodes covering all four of those divisions.
3:18If you didn't already hear, my partner in crime, Chris Rabon, moved on.
3:22It was a hell of a run. We'll miss him.
3:25Appreciate all his work over the years. It's still TV day.
3:29We're going to have pretty much the same episode, but obviously a different co-host.
3:33More on that later. But we're going to be knocking out all the divisional previews with a few different folks just to
3:41get them out before the regular season. Dabundo, I know your mind is on Premier League in addition to the NFL.
3:47What's going on, brother? Yeah, we're recording this and I made the mistake of saying, yeah, I'm available at this hour.
3:54And as I say that, Arsenal just scored the opening goal of the Premier League season.
3:59So we're back. But that's not what we're here for.
4:03We're here for football, different kind of football. And we're here to talk about our favorite division.
4:08So I'm excited to be here. And this is, I think, the first time we've ever actually done a full NFL podcast together because we've done soccer.
4:17You had me on for soccer. We've definitely done March Madness in the past.
4:21But this is a new endeavor. It is. We do talk on the phone frequently.
4:26So this will be like a late night phone call when you give me political losers.
4:31And Ecuador in the World Cup. So hopefully you're not too distracted with the Premier League going on.
4:37I'll try to keep us on track. Now we're good.
4:40You're the guest. So we'll start with your division.
4:43Let's start with the AFC South where the Houston Texans are the favorites at DraftKings at plus 110.
4:49Jags coming in next at plus 245. The Colts at plus 380.
4:53And the Titans at 8-1. Let's start with the favorites, the Houston Texans who went 12-5 last year.
4:59Although that was not good enough to win the division.
5:02Sent them out on the road where they demolished Pittsburgh and then just shit down their leg in New England.
5:09This year, what you can be confident about, I know like defenses are year to year.
5:14There's a lot of variance. But as long as this Texans defense is healthy, it's going to be one of the best in the NFL.
5:22I mean, you have two of the best edge rushers who combined for a million pressures last year.
5:28And then you have arguably the best cornerback trio in the NFL.
5:31And if they don't, there's not a lot of bells and whistles.
5:35They line up. They're going to play a lot of quarters.
5:39They're going to get pressure on you. They can cover you.
5:42And it's not, they don't need to get a lot of turnovers.
5:46They don't need like, it's just a very, very rock solid defense.
5:50In today's NFL, if you can play a majority of the snaps with a nickel who can defend the run and the
5:57pass, you have a leg up and the Texans certainly do with Petrie.
6:02Now they have to stay healthy. Those edge rushers and those corners have to stay healthy.
6:07That's true with a lot of teams. So the defense should be solid.
6:11The interest, the more interesting, like this should be a top five defense, just as long as they stay healthy.
6:17The more interesting discussion is about the offense. CJ Stroud, I think a lot of people remember how he ended the year.
6:25And he's had his ups and downs since a very promising rookie year.
6:29But last year wasn't all bad. I mean, he was what finished in the top half of the league in EPA per play success, right?
6:37Like some of the underlying metrics were okay, especially when you consider all the injuries at receiver, right?
6:43No tank down to go Collins, missed time. And an offensive line that ranked in the bottom three and run block, win rate, pass block, win rate.
6:51And he had no run game to speak of.
6:54And his offensive coordinator didn't really help him out much.
6:58And it was the first year where he was really, you know, changing protections and plays at the line of scrimmage.
7:04So another year, you know, getting more comfortable in the offense.
7:08Hopefully an actual rushing attack as they bring in David Montgomery can use Woody Marks more in passing situations.
7:14Nico Collins, if he stays healthy, one of the best receivers in the NFL.
7:19Maybe you see them use more two tight end sets this year.
7:22But you had Jaden Higgins just went down with an injury, which puts a lot more onus on the potential of Tank Dell contributing.
7:30And will he be healthy? When will he be healthy?
7:33Will he ever be the same? That's certainly something to monitor.
7:37And then the biggest question is, is the offensive line fixed?
7:41They bring in a lot of veterans. And so they bring in Wyatt Teller.
7:45They bring in Braden Smith, who was with your Colts.
7:48And you hope that you get a second year bump from Ursary, who showed some promise.
7:53A little up and down, but you hope that he's better in his second year as a starter.
7:59And if the offensive line is better, this whole operation could look a lot smoother.
8:04This offense needs a rushing attack to work. It's just that simple.
8:08And they didn't have it last year. But now you're hearing like, I'm hearing some weird things with the offensive line.
8:15They also drafted Keelan Rutledge in the first round, who's probably going to start maybe at center.
8:20Although your starting center is back from last year.
8:23Maybe at guard. But now I'm hearing like, Evan Brown might start at center and Rutledge might start at guard.
8:30Even though they brought in Wyatt Teller for a lot of money.
8:34They brought in Braden Smith. He might not be.
8:36So the offensive line is still completely up in the air.
8:40Could be Trent Brown at right tackle. It'd be very Texans that bring in two major signings that are in signings and they don't even start.
8:48But it can't really be worse than last year.
8:51What are you seeing with the Texans this year?
8:54It's really going to come down to the offense because we know what we're going to get from the defense.
9:01I mean, can they fix any red zone stuff?
9:04Yeah. Because their defense is so good. They had the best field position in the league last year.
9:09Starting field position. And didn't really have to do all that much offensively.
9:14But when they got down into the low red zone.
9:17I mean, how many times did they have first and goal and settle for three?
9:22That was like the entire story of the season.
9:25It was a running joke on our ringer pod.
9:28Like, I bet the Texans to go under 11 straight weeks to start the year.
9:32Only one of the games went over. Like, it was just every game was long drive, field goal, long drive, field goal.
9:40I refuse to believe that this team has a leap in them offensively.
9:44But what do they need to get to offensively to be a great team is really the question.
9:50Is it 12th? Is it 10th? Is it 8th?
9:52Like, I don't know. Is it average? If they're an average offense?
9:56Because last year, they were 29th in efficiency in the red zone.
10:0027th inside the 10-yard line. Just that alone has any positive regression.
10:04If they find any new ideas, that automatically could give them a leap into, you know, top five team in the league.
10:11So, I think that's the biggest question. Is can they sort out their red zone problems?
10:16Because I don't think they're going to be a great consistent run offense.
10:21But can they officially do that when they go bigger, down low in those areas is really the defining factor.
10:27Yeah, in regards to the schedule, it's not terrible.
10:30I mean, you do start – you have two games starting off with Buffalo and Cincinnati.
10:35And then you're going to have a run that is pretty favorable.
10:39Even if you look at, like, when they're at Cleveland, that's Cleveland's 10th straight game after three straight road games.
10:46Indian – when they play Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football, that's Indy's 11th straight game on a short week.
10:52When they play the Ravens, it's the Ravens' 12th straight game and back-to-back road games with Houston having extra rest.
10:58So, there's some nuances that help them in the schedule in that middle portion where they can stack up wins.
11:05And then it gets a little difficult at the end because you are going on the road to Philly and Green Bay late in the year.
11:13We've seen Stroud and this Houston offense outdoors not look crisp, to put it kindly.
11:18But, yeah, this is just – I agree with you.
11:21Like, can David Montgomery in an improved offensive line give them anything more in the red zone in short yardage situations?
11:28How many times did they get stuffed on third and one?
11:31Oh, it was awful. And it was just – there was no creativity in the short yardage play calling.
11:38It happened again in the preseason game the other night.
11:41It's second and one to steal the game. And they get stuffed.
11:45They get stuffed on third and one. And then on fourth and one, they punt.
11:50And then the Raiders go 96 yards somehow and win on the last play of the game.
11:55So, yeah, I mean, as far as injuries are concerned, EJ Speed, a 4X Colt.
12:00I don't think he's any good, but it hurts their linebacker depth.
12:04So, you're going to have, like, Mapu, maybe Wooda as the rookie.
12:08You might need to rely on more. But I think just staying in nickel more often, assuming they're healthy, is a good thing for the Texans.
12:16I don't have any worries about the defense. This is just all about the offense.
12:21I did take a flyer on them to win the Super Bowl.
12:25It's my only Super Bowl future at 20-1. The AFC, I think, is pretty wide open this year.
12:31They have an elite defense. And I just think that the market was too fixated on how Stroud ended the season.
12:37Like, Stroud had a horrific, historically bad postseason. You're a Stroud guy.
12:41You know, it's funny. I was joking about this.
12:44I've been an anti-Stroud relatively, I feel like, my entire time here.
12:48And now I feel like I'm kind of the high man on Stroud.
12:52I'm like, yeah, he's, like, fine. He's never – the biggest flaw in him coming out of college was that he crumbled
12:59under duress and pressure in the pocket. And he was great from a clean pocket.
13:04He's had very few clean pockets the last two years.
13:08Just, like, this – what's the inciting thing that leads to this O-line being better is still the one issue I have
13:15with them being a Super Bowl contender. Have we ever seen a team with an O-line this potentially bad win the Super Bowl?
13:22No. I mean, it has to come together. I mean, Ursary has to take a big step.
13:28But I like Ingram. And then Rutledge has to be a hit, bottom line, whether that's at center or guard.
13:34So if Ursary takes a big step, Rutledge takes a big step, and then Braden Smith is healthy.
13:40And the thing is, though, that Smith and Teller, who knows what they're even starting.
13:45I mean, they're 30 and 31. Their best years are definitely behind them.
13:49But can they put it together and stay healthy for one more year?
13:53Now, you have some depth. Like, at least you still have, you know, Brown.
13:58At least you still have Andrews at center. So, like, there is some flexibility.
14:02But it's mainly Ursary and Rutledge. That's going to unlock the ceiling.
14:06And then you have Montgomery giving you more juice in the rushing attacks.
14:10Like, that's how they get there. They're not going to be a great offense.
14:15And then you need Tank Dell to come back and contribute, especially with the Higgins injury.
14:20Right. But the conversation, this isn't, the NFL now, like, you can win with elite defenses the way that the league is trending.
14:27Yeah. Well, that was my point, which is like, this is a wider AFC conversation, is that the way the league's trending
14:35too, which is like, we're going to get quarterbacks back under center again.
14:39We're going to play three tight ends more often.
14:42We're going to not, you know, play as much spread as we used to.
14:46All of those trends favor the Texans because they're like, they don't have much in terms of receivers outside of Nico.
14:53They don't have the O-line to play, the kind of spread stuff that maybe worked earlier in the Stroud career when he
15:00was, you know, as a rookie dropping back and throwing it all over the yard to Dell and Collins and setting records.
15:07So the way the league's trending helps these teams that maybe are a little more limited at quarterback and limited offensively because
15:14they're trying to hide the weaknesses of the O-line by just throwing more big dudes out there.
15:20Yeah. And all these teams with the elite quarterbacks, you know, that upper echelon, their rosters have suffered.
15:26Right. So like their, their, their rest of their rosters have major question marks now.
15:30So I, I don't know. And I think the Texans have a clear path to the playoffs.
15:36If they can just, they have a, they had a tough schedule last year and they've been unlucky three years in a row with injury.
15:44A big thing that can really help them get home field advantage.
15:48That would help. So you don't have to go outdoors, you know, right off the bat.
15:53But it's funny that the narrative around Stroud, I mean, they were, their, their offense was 12th in pass EPA and they had no, no rushing attack.
16:02Their offensive line was what? 30th in pass block win rate, shuffling constantly injuries at receiver.
16:07And, you know, it said like, it wasn't as bad as everyone remembers.
16:11And then in that, you know, Patriots game, you're outdoors in weather.
16:15Collins is hurt. You lose Schultz who you were going to build the offense around early in that game.
16:21You can't run the ball. And Stroud was off.
16:24Don't get me wrong. But he forced it. Yeah.
16:27Yeah. But there was, he didn't have much help around him, but like Drake May was also horrendous.
16:33Now he was way better in the regular season, but he was also horrendous for four games in the playoffs.
16:39And like, we haven't changed the narrative on him.
16:42So I don't know. I just think that if this Texans teams gets, they're like the anti Cowboys and Bengals.
16:49If the Cowboys or Bengals can get to like a league average defense, then you're like, all right, they can make some noise.
16:56If the Texans can get to like a slightly above average offense and their defense stays healthy, then I think they have
17:03the potential to make some noise in a wide open AFC.
17:07So I took a flyer on them to win the Super Bowl with some upside.
17:12Hopefully my guy Tank Dell can get healthy. Did you take anything with the Texans?
17:17Any action here? Yeah, I have some division personally.
17:19They ended up with the seventh highest run rate on first down last year.
17:24And as a result of that, they were in second and long more than every team in the NFL.
17:30So it's like a weird situation where like, did they run it?
17:34They want to run it more this year. They want to run it more efficiently, but their pass offense was still league average last year.
17:42Their run offense certainly wasn't. I took them to win this division.
17:46If you go back to last year even and you adjust some, like Nick Giffen does the luck rankings, at one point
17:53they really weren't outplayed in any of their first six or seven games and they were below 500.
17:59So they do have a lot of wiggle room with this defense to push upwards offensively.
18:04Yeah. And I really like the draft pick of Kay McDonald who's going to help them along the defensive line.
18:11Just give them another piece on that defense. Let's move on to the Jacksonville Jaguars who, look, the Texans went 12 and five.
18:18They didn't win the division because the Jags went 13 and four, got red hot down the stretch.
18:24Their win total is sitting at eight and a half juice to the over, or you can go nine and a half juiced to the under.
18:32The offense took off in the second half of the year.
18:36And it's a small sample size when you're splitting things up first half, second half.
18:41But there was real reasons for it. It's like, okay, Liam Cohen comes in.
18:45His impact starts to be felt. Trevor Lawrence started to get it.
18:49He became more aggressive. He started to run more.
18:52You add in a very impactful receiver. You move Colvin Lannan to left tackle.
18:56You get Brenton Strange back, who's key in the red zone and key on some third down.
19:02So there were real tangible differences in the second half of the year.
19:06And they ended up scoring a franchise record 474 points.
19:09The previous record was 417. Now it's worth mentioning that you still have your receivers and Myers, Parker Washington.
19:16I mean, getting Myers, he unlocked a lot. Brian Thomas Jr.
19:19is back. You do lose ETN in the running back room.
19:23Tootin, Brian Robinson going to take over those roles.
19:26The offensive line mainly returned intact. But now you're dealing with some injuries.
19:30Patrick McCurry, probably going to be out for a while.
19:33Cole Van Lannan's been dealing with an injury. I mean, things were bad.
19:37So bad depth-wise, they traded for Fale, who's horrendous.
19:40You might even have the rookie, Emmanuel Pregnon, starting at guard early in the season and perhaps throughout the season.
19:47So we'll see if those offensive line injuries are detrimental to the continued growth of this Jacksonville offense.
19:52But if they stay healthy, it's Liam Cohen. I trust him.
19:56I think this offense should be fine. It's the defense that I'm very worried about.
20:01I think they take a big, big step back.
20:04You had career years from a number of guys on that defense last year.
20:08And you had all of the turnover luck. I mean, they went from nine forced turnovers.
20:13So they were due for it. They went from nine forced turnovers in 2024, which is last, to 32.
20:20First team in NFL history to go from under 10 to over 30.
20:24Doubt they can replicate that. They lose Devin Lloyd, who played at an all-pro level last year.
20:29And they didn't really add anything to this team.
20:32I mean, they had one of the worst drafts in the NFL, I think.
20:37And they just kind of are running it back.
20:40They drafted some tight ends. But, like, you were good with your three wide receivers in Brenton Strange.
20:45And, like, so maybe they want to go more.
20:48They're following in McVay's footsteps. And they want to go more multi-tight end.
20:53But, like, you want to get Nate Borkercher on the field more often than Myers or Washington or BTJ.
20:59So, I don't know. They had a very, very curious draft.
21:02And I think the defense overall got worse unless Travis Hunter comes in and can become a lockdown corner and elevate that position.
21:10But linebacker definitely is going to take a step back.
21:13And you're not going to get as much turnover luck.
21:16I mean, they had a 71% fumble recovery rate, third highest over the past 10 years.
21:21And their pass defense went from 32nd to 7th.
21:24Now, part of that was the scheme change. They were very man-heavy for some reason a couple years ago.
21:30Went more zone-heavy. Had a scheme that fit the personnel better.
21:34But the turnovers definitely helped. So, basically, this team is, like, running it back with a couple of key losses.
21:40And they're hoping to not have too much turnover regression.
21:44They finished plus 13 in that department. They stayed relatively healthy.
21:47They went 6-2 in regular season games, decided by 7 or less.
21:51So, they were fairly fortunate in close games. Fourth downs, they were also 60% on fourth downs.
21:57Their opponents were only 35%. I mentioned the fumble luck.
22:00So, there's a lot of things that are pointing down and regression coming for the Jags.
22:05They also only have six true home games. They had eight last year where they went 7-1.
22:11They have back-to-back games in London. They have back-to-back-to-back road games at one point against Baltimore, Tennessee, and the Giants.
22:17They closed with four of six on the road.
22:20They made the playoffs four other times since 2000.
22:23They didn't make it back the following year. In any of those four instances, do they make it five for five and miss out?
22:31I would say you. How many wins do you have for them?
22:34I project... I should say what I project for Houston.
22:38So, Houston, I project 9-9. Brooklyn. And Jacksonville, I project 8-8-5.
22:41Yeah. I'm a little bit higher technically on Jacksonville.
22:44But I don't know what to make of this team.
22:47They were like three different teams last year. They were a good run offense for a bit.
22:53And then the second half of the season, they were one of the worst run offenses in the NFL.
22:59And now, I don't really know what they're going to look like from a rushing perspective.
23:04Do you really think that they're going to maintain what they did on the ground without ETN?
23:10With Tootin, is he a better down-to-down back than ETN?
23:13I'm not confident in that. And then also, a part of me still wonders, like, okay, this offense really took off in the second half.
23:21There's two narratives you could spin there. You could spin the, well, it was a rookie head coach who really found his way.
23:28And like you said, Washington has the breakout. Myers comes in.
23:32Or did they just play a lot of bad teams down the stretch?
23:36They got to play injured Indy twice down the stretch.
23:39They got to play the Jets, the Titans twice, and the Cardinals.
23:43So, like, was this run always coming? Or did they just load up on the back end with a lot of worse
23:50defenses they were able to pick on through the air, specifically?
23:54Because what do all those teams have in common?
23:57None of them can get near Trevor Lawrence. Like, there was zero pass rush on him for most of the second half of the season.
24:05And he was very, very, very, very good. But now it changed, a lot changes now when you get into the new season with the O-line questions.
24:14I mean, Brandon Anderson did a good piece for action ranking all the offensive lines.
24:19He has the Jags bottom five. A lot of the consensus rankings don't think it's a very good O-line.
24:25So if you're not able to run the ball and you're playing real pass defenses and pass rushes, you can easily see
24:32where a lot of this goes down the drain.
24:35But I think, honestly, the biggest X factor is the situation with there's supposed to be star receiver, Brian Thomas Jr., who
24:42was awful, not just metrically, but to the eye test, alligator arms.
24:46Did he want to be there? Does he even like football?
24:49Like all those questions. Is he afraid of getting hit?
24:53They need him because there's no way they're going to be able to sustain what they did last year with Parker Washington,
25:00Jacoby Myers, Bretton Strange as their main receiving options.
25:03So I came away pretty lukewarm on Jacksonville, and I have them missing the playoffs.
25:07But that offense, to me, I just have the sinking feeling that they played no defense that could get a pass rush
25:15down the stretch, and that made Lawrence look a lot better than he actually is.
25:19And then defensively, where do you think the Jags ranked in pressure rate last year?
25:24Where do they rank in pressure rate? Last season.
25:27Yeah. I'm going to say 19th. That's a pretty good guess.
25:31It's exactly 19th. Was it really? It's like a pretty mediocre pass rush.
25:35I feel like people, like I've seen a lot of, everybody does like their top 10 rankings of defenses.
25:41And Jacksonville's been in the top 10 and a lot like the back end, like nine or 10.
25:47And a lot of them, no, I'm not even close to that.
25:51So I have this defense closer to 20th. So I think they're like a slightly above average team.
25:57But this is a competitive division now. Like Houston, I think Indy's going to be competitive again.
26:02As a result, I'm pretty lukewarm on the Jags.
26:05I have not bet they're under. But, you know, if it was, I wish I would have loved under nine and a half.
26:12I feel like the market's pretty odd to Jacksonville writ large.
26:16Yeah. Under nine and a half, like minus 140-ish.
26:19I think I can potentially get there, especially with some of these offensive line injuries.
26:24You know, I mean, they've already lost Macari. And they're definitely worried because you don't, I mean, trading for Harley, I mean, that's the point of that.
26:32Yeah. And the running game, and to your point with that schedule, right?
26:37I think it was probably a mixture of both.
26:40Yes. They won nine of 10 after the bye.
26:43But only two of those teams made the playoffs.
26:45The Denver result was the one. Denver was the one.
26:49Yeah. Yeah. They went into Denver and mauled them.
26:52And without a run game, for what it's worth.
26:54Yeah. Had to run on Denver. Not the Jags.
26:57Not that day. They threw it all over them.
27:00Yeah. Probably the best game of Lawrence's career, honestly.
27:03In a lot of ways, they were the reverse Colts.
27:06Because they had all their easier games backloaded, while Indy had all their easy games frontloaded last year.
27:12And it flipped a lot. I mean, that was a big part of everything.
27:17Yeah. I mean, I was all over this team last year.
27:20I had them to win the division and go to the playoffs.
27:24I loved Liam Cohen. And they did all the things that you expected.
27:28They changed the scheme on defense to fit their personnel, which was ridiculous in 2024.
27:33They went from dead. I mean, look, they went from dead last in motion rate, such an easy thing you can do,
27:40to top 10, which helped out their offense. And it was just Liam Cohen, wherever he goes, he's going to raise the floor significantly with the offense.
27:49Everything was just schemes and fair. And they do have good special teams, which can help in some close coin flip games.
27:56But they had 110 points off turnovers, which led the NFL.
28:00Doubt you're going to see that again. Yeah. I think the Jags make it five for five and they missed the playoffs.
28:07I'm definitely a seller this year. They also, I'll probably be looking, let's see, their first three games, their first four games
28:14are Cleveland at Denver, New England at Cincy. Which, because I want to, I potentially want to look for some overs in some of their games early on.
28:23Do I want to bet a Cleveland Jacksonville over though?
28:26Not sure. Jacksonville, Denver over. Could see that. Oh, Nick's kept clean.
28:30That's a game pretty well. Time to play Denver early in the season.
28:34Going to the altitude in September. Colts were in a similar spot last year and they ended up playing a thriller.
28:41Cohen might be really good. That's where we're wrong, right?
28:44If Cohen is the next kind of like offensive play caller whiz, is he the next LaFleur?
28:50Is he the next? He is. I mean, look, he's proven it.
28:54Johnson? Last year, it was at Tampa. Whenever he came to Kentucky twice, the offense would boom.
28:59And then he would leave and it would plummet.
29:02Look at the Bucs have slowly stalled out, I think a little bit after his departure.
29:07Yeah. I'm a believer. It's the only thing. It's the only reason I'm hesitant.
29:12But I do think the defense takes a monumental step back.
29:15All right. Let's get to your Indianapolis Colts. Win total, seven and a half juice to the over.
29:21However, if you are listening or watching this show under the influence, you can look at them 45 to one to win the Super Bowl.
29:29Don't do that. Last year, they went eight and nine, three and seven in one possession games.
29:35They were definitely unlucky. Jones got hurt. And Jones, look, they still finished fifth in DBOA on offense.
29:41Fifth overall in DBOA, which is pretty crazy. Fourth in special teams, 15th in defense.
29:46And that was with the Jones injury. You know, a guy coming off the couch.
29:50Wasn't played in years for starting games. So Shane Steichen did a pretty good job with his team last year.
29:57They did benefit from some very good fortune in the red zone.
30:01They were second in the league on both offense and defense.
30:04Good fortune or a great run game? Yeah, that's always the question.
30:08Well, I think defensively, yeah, most. But yeah, they're probably always going to be good in the red zone with a healthy Jonathan Jower.
30:16And they're a healthy offensive line. They need that offensive line to stay healthy.
30:20I mean, if they do, you know, you lose Brayden Smith.
30:24But Jalen Travis showed well. Goncalves, Bordelini, they've hit on a lot of young.
30:29They're the offensive line factory, to be honest. Rhyman, people don't even like Rhyman.
30:33He's been amazing. And then Nelson. Yeah, I mean, those two are great.
30:37But the depth would get scary if there's injuries.
30:40As long as they stay healthy, they're going to be able to run the ball.
30:45There are some – I'm going to ask you about the offense here.
30:49So assuming Jones is good to go and healthy, is that the word?
30:53I mean, everybody likes him. And, you know, you always have to be careful because, you know, Indianapolis, smaller market, a lot of Homer media.
31:02So everybody kind of like sees what they want to see in the whole thing.
31:06But even the nonpartisan people, the Falcons people who have been watching the joint practices between India and Atlanta this week.
31:13My friend Ben Solak, who is Colts agnostic, who was there with ESPN.
31:17He was down there. He's like, Jones is moving really well.
31:21And, you know, I don't – I find it to be amazing that this is actually working.
31:26But the thing about the Colts offense is that it's so quarterback-proof in so many ways.
31:32These are the quarterbacks that Steichen has had in his three full years as the Colts coach.
31:37Gardner Minshew, Anthony Richardson, Riley Leonard, Phil Rivers, Daniel Jones.
31:40You know where they rank in EPA per tribe with those quarterbacks?
31:44Not one of them is good. And also Joe Flacco.
31:47You could throw him in the mix. Yeah. Like sixth?
31:51Yeah, 12th. With some of the worst quarterback play imaginable in some of these games.
31:56So that's just what Steichen gives them offensively. It's such a high floor that if Jones is able to, you know, be
32:0380%, 85% to start week one, I think this offense is going to continue to cook people.
32:08Yeah, it's such an important question though because their schedule early is brutal.
32:12Brutal. If he's like 70% compared to fully healthy, it can make a big difference in how their season goes because they
32:20start Baltimore at KC, Houston, Washington and overseas. You come back and go to the Steelers without a buy.
32:26So like those first five, like Jones isn't healthy and he's struggling.
32:30Are you one in four? Or if he is healthy, right?
32:33You could be three and two. And then your schedule lightens up.
32:37Yeah. It's the opposite of last year, really. Yeah.
32:40So that it's such a big question. Then there's also the other, before we get to the defense, what are you hearing on?
32:47This is what I'm scared of. Yeah. Well, because you lose Pittman, so you're going to need Alec Pierce to step up and be the one.
32:56You can't just be like the flash downfield guy.
32:59And he was very good at that and very productive.
33:02But now you've got to be the alpha. You do bring in Keenan Allen.
33:06I think it's like a good floor raising signing, especially with the game.
33:11Old Michael Pittman. Yeah. It's the same thing it is.
33:14He was still productive last year and he could still go out and he could move the chains on third downs.
33:21So, number one, what are you expecting from Pierce health-wise?
33:24And then how confident are you in Warren also dealing with a little bit of injury?
33:29But assuming everyone's okay, Warren's going to be, I would assume, a bigger focal point this year.
33:35Are you comfortable and feeling good about the Pittman-less wide receiver room with Pierce as the alpha downs Allen Warren?
33:41You know, there's actually markets up now on whether or not Pierce will play week one.
33:46So, it looks like he's 33% at one market.
33:49Now the liquidity is low on that. But, you know, worth saying that people don't think he's going to play.
33:56It is certainly the fact they signed Keenan Allen on a sign that he may not go week one.
34:02You know, you'd almost rather hold him out because of the tough schedule and say, can we get him back for week three?
34:09You know, fully healthy and try to get to one and one and pull one upset against Baltimore-Kansas City the first two weeks.
34:17This group is so complimentary though. And that's why I think it's exciting.
34:21Like, Downs has never really been able to stay healthy for a full season.
34:25And I would worry about him if he got shunted into a role where he was the number one.
34:31But he is a perfect two. Especially when you already have Warren.
34:35Taylor's very good out of the backfield. Like, they are so good.
34:39Again, getting guys consistently open 10 to 15 yards down the field.
34:43That's where Jones was cooking last year. And people think of them as like a run-heavy team.
34:49They really aren't. Like, they're a pass on first down to get to opportunities for second and short.
34:54So they can take their risks. And then most of their third downs end up being third and short.
35:01It's so easy to convert. Like, I remember at one point during the heater they were on, they were converting a ridiculous number of third downs.
35:09But all of them were like third and two and third and three.
35:13And that's why you're going to be a lot more efficient than if you get stuck in third and six all the time.
35:21So, yeah, I mean, this offense to me, again, goes back to O-line's great.
35:25Running game's reliable. I think Pierce is going to be okay, but I'm not sure he's playing week one.
35:31So, I mean, I have a little bit of a doubt of week one offense for them.
35:37Because then who are you looking at here? Because then it's Downs and Allen and you have no threat over the top at that point.
35:45Yeah. Are you playing like Ashton Doolin? Yeah. So, like, I know that Steichen has a floor, like a high floor offense.
35:52But this is an offense, just based on where they are now, right?
35:56You've got to pay Jones. That they've done a good job of assembling a starting 11.
36:01Right. But if you remove one and then look at the depth.
36:05Like, the offensive line depth is scary bad. Wide receiver depth gets dropped off a cliff.
36:10Obviously, you don't want to go to Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
36:14You don't want to go to, you know, DJ Giddens at running back.
36:18So, like, if you were to rank teams that need to stay healthy on offense in the NFL, the Colts would be
36:25near the top because their depth is poor. But it should be a good offense.
36:30Just there's some health questions. Defensively, fascinating defense this year.
36:33I mean, it's very hard for me to figure out what this defense is going to be because they kind of purged a lot of their veterans.
36:42I mean, they got rid of over 50% of their snaps, seven of their top 14.
36:47And there's a chance they start four rookies. And I'm including Justin Wally because he was out all last year.
36:54He was a rookie. He's getting rave reviews. He's going to take that important nickel spot, which Kenny Moore held down for so long in Indy.
37:02You, Charverius Ward's coming back. We'll see if he can stay healthy.
37:06Sauce Garner's coming back. So, it's, you know, these Wally reports are true.
37:10You have a very, very good trio at corner.
37:13And then, you know, you have, like, this aging interior defensive line with Grover, Storton, DeForest, Buckner.
37:19Still very good, though. Yeah, still very good. But where is, do they, do they hit a cliff at any point?
37:25Like, how much does that drop off? And then, you have these, you have Latu's very good.
37:31Can you get help? Is Latu very good? That's the, that's actually the X.
37:35I like Latu. I shouldn't be very good, but he's very, I think he's good.
37:40That's the X factor for the defense. Yeah, the other end spot, too.
37:45Like, can they get, can they generate pressure? Like, and Arden Key, I'm not the biggest Arden Key guy.
37:51JTT seems like a bust to me. Yeah. So, you're right.
37:54They need Latu to be good. They need him to generate pressure.
37:58And then, at linebacker, it's like, like, up the middle, like, at linebacker and safety, you might have three rookies starting.
38:05CJ Allen, Bryce Betcher, A.J. Halsey. I really like Halsey.
38:08But then you throw in the nickel and wally.
38:11That's a lot of, like, new blood on the defense.
38:14Pass rush is still a concern, but you have the corners if they're healthy.
38:19This is a tough defense to crack. What are you seeing here with Indy's Day?
38:24This is where you kind of have to trust Ballard.
38:27And honestly, as much as I have been critical of Ballard, because I think he misses the big things a lot, he's
38:34very good in the middle rounds of finding these second and third round guys that become contributors.
38:40Again, he keeps missing elite rushers. They have struggled with the quarterback position, obviously, since the day Andy hung it up.
38:46But he's pretty good at filling out a roster that's really solid.
38:50They're still, to me, going to have problems covering tight ends in the middle of the field.
38:56They want to play a lot of man because of Ward and Gardner, who, again, also didn't play a lot of football together last year.
39:04And both guys have injury concerns. So to start the season, they're healthy.
39:08That's great. But what does that look like if Ward takes a big hit to the head?
39:13Gardner's had injury issues the last couple of years where he hasn't played that much football.
39:19So you start to get worried. But also, if they go man heavy, the pass rush just isn't good enough right now to justify it.
39:27I mean, they were 24th in pressure rate last year.
39:30And that's why I say Latu is the difference maker because he's still young.
39:34He could develop. And if he becomes like a real, real pass rusher, then you start to feel like upside.
39:41But I just think that when they play good quarterbacks, eventually those young guys over the middle, the linebackers and the safeties get picked on.
39:49I made a bunch of money last year betting tight end prop overs against Zaire Franklin because he couldn't cover anybody.
39:56And I'm not sure these younger guys can either.
39:59So I think that's the question with this defense.
40:02I think Anarumo, you saw all the textbook Anarumo things last year, especially being good in the red zone when things got condensed.
40:09He was very good at keeping teams to three, forcing turnovers, waiting for you to press.
40:14All that stuff generally works against bottom 18 offenses.
40:17But I think when you play the big boys and you saw that down the stretch, the better offenses were able to pick on them.
40:25So again, it's much how I feel about the offense.
40:29I feel like the defense is high floor-ish and low ceiling.
40:32I don't see a world where this is a top 10 group, but I think they're pretty comfortably between 10 and 20.
40:39Yeah, the thing that, like you mentioned the middle of the field, like, so I'm just picturing that and with the way
40:46that the NFL is trending to more heavier personnel, right?
40:50Does it lessen the impact of having like two really good corners?
40:53Because I picture, like, some of these teams, like Baltimore in week one, you know, going to Pittsburgh in week five.
41:00These teams that are going to – there's a lot of them now, but teams that are going to use multiple tight ends and go heavy.
41:09And then I'm picturing, right, Cam Bynum, Husaw, but back in free safety.
41:13And then your guys all over the middle of the field covering everyone are – Your guys.
41:18Allen, Betcher, Wally, Halsey. That's basically four rookies trying to – that's like – That's Grover, too.
41:24I mean, Grover is still one of the best run-stopping nose tackles in the league, so that helps.
41:30But, yeah, you can see where that goes bad.
41:33Yeah, interesting team. They did start 8-2. First team to cash their win total over last year stuck.
41:38Yeah, and then the first team to start 8-2 or better and not make the playoffs.
41:44Pretty crazy. We'll see how healthy they are. We'll always have Colts plus 13-1⁄2 in Seattle with Phil Rivers at quarterback.
41:50That was one of the more fun bets of the year last year.
41:55We'll always have that stuck. Yeah, too. I don't have anything on the Colts.
41:59I can see how you make a case for like – I took over 7-1⁄2.
42:04I can see how you make a case for taking the division.
42:08Like, you just say like, look, the Texans aren't going to figure out the offense.
42:13And the Jags take a big step back just on regression in their defensive performance.
42:17And then the Colts are – The keys to this – It's the only good offensive line in the division.
42:24Yeah. The key – And the rookies provide variance.
42:27Like, you're going to need some of these rookies to hit.
42:30But that and then health early, they're the key to the Colts season and them hitting their ceiling.
42:36All right, let's move on to the – My beloved Tennessee Titans.
42:40Win total. No more Brian Callahan. Over 6-1⁄2. Yeah, that has to be a major upgrade no matter what you think of the incoming staff.
42:48Brian Callahan, one of the worst coaches in NFL history if you go by against the spread numbers.
42:54And if you go by Stucky's bankroll. Oh, yeah.
42:57There's no statue of him outside my house. Um, Titans off a 3-14 year.
43:01They were decent on special teams. But that's – DK was pretty good.
43:06But that's about it. The offense, the defense, the coaching was bad.
43:10Now, it is worth noting, they were supposed to have, like, one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
43:16And they had the hardest. Yeah. Well, the division's good.
43:19Yeah. But everyone else that was like – They are dated, man.
43:23It's a good division now. Yeah. But overall, though, they had the hardest schedule.
43:27They had the schedule in the league. They even got the Colts early twice.
43:32Yep. And the Jags late twice. The Jags late twice.
43:35Yeah. When they both were peaking. And, yeah, they – So, they went 1-8 at home last year?
43:41I mean, they could have – I mean, if Mahomes doesn't tear up his knee, they got pretty lucky in their wins.
43:48Like, 0-17 was kind of on the table. It was that bad.
43:52Yeah, it was bad. But they – I mean, to show you how hard the schedule was, they went 1-8 at home.
43:59They lost to eight playoff teams or near playoff teams and then beat the, you know, the Chiefs practice squad.
44:06The Chiefs practice squad and what? Shadur? Yeah, those were there.
44:09And then they won the game on the Demercado game.
44:12So, that was their three wins. Yeah, the prayer Cardinals game.
44:16They were 27th in play action, 29th in motion.
44:19They led the league in penalties. They were never aggressive on four downs even though you're a horrible team.
44:25Who was it? Didn't McCoy have like a punt?
44:28Oh, yeah. What one was it? Houston maybe or the Chargers?
44:31That was horrendous. No, maybe it was the – It might have been the Colts.
44:36They were like down three. Yeah. Like the 42 when they punted on like fourth and two and the Colts went right down the field.
44:44And it was like, really, man? Yeah. You're an interim coach and you're punting late in the second quarter so you can
44:51give the ball to the best offense in the league at the time?
44:56Unbelievable. So, they did go spend. They gave out like over $300 million in new contracts to veterans, most in the NFL.
45:03Always a good sign. So, I mean, this is like a – so, they bring in Robert Sala as head coach.
45:10Gus Bradley, who I hate as a DC. But I assume they're not going to run the Gus Bradley defense.
45:16Otherwise, I would have every dollar I own on the Titans under.
45:20Because he went to San Francisco last year to get the Sala rehab.
45:24And Sala is the head coach. So, I don't think he's going to be running his static cover three.
45:30I assume they're going to be running like, you know, the wide nine quarters, cover three mixtures.
45:36Two high – more two high shells. So, I think that at least you're marked safe from if you're a Titans fan, the old Gus Bradley defenses.
45:44And then you bring in Brian Dable as the offense coordinator.
45:48And then you look around at what they brought in.
45:51And it's like – this is a just hodgepodge of ex-Giants and Jets.
45:55Yep. The coaching staff, the players. I mean – Those are the two franchises you want to emulate in the modern NFL.
46:03It's pretty crazy. So, where did they get potentially better?
46:06I mean, it's hard for them to really get worse anywhere.
46:09You know, you draft Carnell Tate. You bring in Wondell Robinson.
46:13So, their wide receiver room is going to be better.
46:16Because, you know, DK and Ion Manor are now depth pieces.
46:20You hope that Ward takes a year to lead.
46:23The offensive line, you know, is not going to be great.
46:26JC Latham, you have to hope he just gets a lot better.
46:30Dan Moore is who he is. Peter Skrotsky is a very good left guard.
46:35You lose your center, but you bring in Austin – it wasn't great, but you bring in Austin Schlotman, who's like a backup for the Giants.
46:43He's going to be your starting center. I mean, at least they're not starting Cordell Volson at right guard.
46:49They're starting Fernando Carmona, who's like a fifth-round rookie, who I think played tackle at Arkansas in San Jose State.
46:56Don't quote me on that. So, like, yeah, still questions on the offensive line outside of Skrotsky where, you know, this could all fall apart.
47:04But at least the offense, it's like year two of Ward.
47:07It will be coach-schemed better. Regardless of what you think of Dable, it's not going to be the shit show of last year.
47:15So, there'll be like just better basic stuff like motion and platch, and there's more wide receiver talent.
47:21Defensively, you know, you lose sweat. You still have Simmons around.
47:24The back end of the defense is still very questionable.
47:27You bring in Alante Taylor. He's going to play on the outside.
47:31He's like his best ball has been on the slot when they moved him to the slot in New Orleans.
47:38Marcus Harris is going to be your nickel. They have one of the worst nickel situations in the NFL, and that's one
47:45of the – it's becoming one of the most important – Matters a lot now, yeah.
47:50In the league. You know, Cordell Flott is going to be your other outside corner.
47:55Your linebacker situation isn't great. Cedric Gray I like, but other than that, it doesn't look great.
48:00You bring in – and then you just bring in a bunch of guys who are like – they were – they know Salah's defense, right?
48:09Franklin Myers, Jordan Elliott, Jermaine Johnson. Jermaine Johnson's just going to try and get sacks every play.
48:14Franklin Myers is a good get. But this is – it's pretty much just all about Jeffrey Simmons again and what he can do.
48:22This is still not going to be a very good defense.
48:26How much can the offense help them out? How much can the coaching help them out?
48:31You would think that the schedule has to get a little easier just based on pure regression.
48:36What are you seeing with the Titans? Titans and the Giants are kind of in similar places for me.
48:42Not as rosters, but as coaching higher decisions. I mean, of all of the new guys that have been brought in and
48:49different ideas that we've seen, Tennessee going with a retread at this point, multiple retreads if you include Dable and Salah, to
48:57try to fix their quarterback who was one of the worst rookie quarterback seasons by success rate for a first-round pick we've
49:04ever seen, who was actually worse by success rate than Zach Wilson was in his first year with the Jets.
49:10Could you make an argument, though, that Ward – could you make any argument that Ward has any similarities to Drake May
49:17in that – in Drake May's first year, disastrous coach, horrific offensive line?
49:21But he was still better than that. No receivers.
49:24I know, but like just – I'm not saying like he was as – Drake May was as bad, but that –
49:32Drake May made a ridiculous leap because you brought in a more competent staff, you improved the weapons.
49:37I don't know if the Titans really improved their offensive line, but is there any similarity?
49:43Really bad offensive line. Also, like May at least showed me more flashes and downfield stuff, and they were so much more
49:50explosive with May as a rookie than the Titans even were last year.
49:54I don't see this. And I'm not going to overreact to like preseason stuff where he also looked pretty bad under pressure,
50:01but it's still such a bad situation. Like on what earth are they going to be a good run team?
50:07Yeah. No chance. No, probably not. So you're putting him under a ton of pressure behind a bad O-line.
50:14And I like Tate, but the other guys are young and unproven for the most part.
50:19And then it's just a staff question for me.
50:22And this organization as a whole, four straight years where they have been below six and a half Pythagorean wins, even back
50:29to the end of the Vrabel era, it was not a particularly beautiful ending to that partnership.
50:34And so I don't really see what the upside case even is unless Cam Ward shows me something I'm not expecting from him.
50:42So you like the under? I bet the under.
50:45Yeah. Tighten unders. So you're picking the Texans to win the South?
50:48Yeah, but I'm not betting it. I took more of a longer shot.
50:53If I had to bet a division, if I had to make a division bet, I actually would take the Colts, even
51:00some of the variants of their rookies, the health early on.
51:03Yeah. I could see it. With the first pick in the 2026 NFL Sunday six-pack, Anthony selects Colts plus three and a half against the Baltimore Ravens.
51:12Well, let's talk. I'm not going to be on that podcast, so I'm just going to say it now since I can just do that.
51:20I don't mind that bet. You don't have to convince me on a home dog in week one.
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55:54DraftKings, the crown is yours. Let's talk a little AFC North.
55:58The Ravens are the favorite. Odds on favorite, minus 112 at DraftKings.
56:02The Bengals are plus 184. Steelers 5-1. Browns 21-1.
56:05The Ravens finished 8-9 last year. They dealt with, you know, Lamar wasn't healthy.
56:09Their defense had a ton of injuries all over the place.
56:13And it led to, and then they had a chance to make the playoffs and Tyra Loop missed a field goal.
56:20Steelers went to the playoffs, got blown out. Tomlin's gone.
56:23Harbaugh's gone. It's a new world. Sobransky's gone, but you know who's still there?
56:27Maybe the most shocking of all four. Yeah. The longest tenured coach in the AFC North now.
56:33Mr. Zach Taylor. I mean, did the Ravens miss their window?
56:36They still have Lamar Jackson. He was like, look, he's 29.
56:40He doesn't have the same burst. It's like injury questions are adding up.
56:44Did he, he's still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but did he miss, did they miss their window?
56:51And like, they were, I think they were arguably the best team in 2019, 2023, and 2024.
56:57Yep. And. No way agrees. They didn't, they have no Super Bowl appearances.
57:01I will never get over the AFC Championship game loss to the Chiefs.
57:05And look, Lamar, $85 million cap hit in 2027.
57:08So there's questions here on this roster. You look at the offensive line, you lose Linderbaum, your center.
57:14That's a pretty important position. Who's going to be your center?
57:17And the interior offensive line was a disaster last year.
57:20And that was with Linderbaum. The guards were the worst in the NFL.
57:25Yeah. You get rid of them. You bring in John Simpson, who was here before.
57:30Just his floor. I mean, his ceiling is like, he just would be league average.
57:34It's nothing special, but it'll probably be, you know, a small upgrade over what they had last year.
57:40And then you got to hope Ioane hits the rookie.
57:43He's going to start at the other guard spot.
57:46But not having Linderbaum there to help them out is very problematic.
57:50It's very problematic. And you were saying, okay, well, Danny Pinter is going to be our guy, which was very questionable.
57:57Well, now he's out for the year. So now you're probably going to go to Ethan Pochich.
58:03But it's, I don't know if the interior, I think the, like, did the interior get better?
58:08Maybe if Ioane's a stud right off the bat as a rookie, it got a little bit better.
58:14But you lose, like, an all-pro caliber center. You have a maybe league average guard and then a question at the other guard.
58:21And there's a major, major question at center. Stanley and Rosengarten come back.
58:25Rosengarten still very iffy. And Stanley's 32 years old.
58:28So this offensive line, major questions once again. The wide receiver room, you do add some pieces that you hope can contribute in the draft.
58:36People are starting to get excited about Jacoby Lane.
58:39You bring in Elijah Seurat. So maybe one of them can contribute.
58:43Because if not, you're basically running it back with Bateman, Flowers, and Walker.
58:47And you lost, you know, you lost some of the guys that made the Ravens who the Ravens were.
58:54And, like, Charlie Kohler, Isaiah Likely. Even, like, the upside of Mitchell is gone.
58:58You lose Patrick Ricard, like, an all-pro fullback every year that you used in so many different ways.
59:04And then Mark Andrews is not getting any younger.
59:07So the hope is, and neither is Derrick Henry, by the way.
59:11Like, you could see Derrick Henry could be an injury.
59:14The production could start to fall off. He's 32.
59:17The hope is, you figure out center. Ioane hits a guard.
59:20Maybe some of these rookie receivers hit. Lamar stays healthy.
59:24And then there's a big scheme bump. Right? You bring in Declan Doyle to be the offensive coordinator.
59:30A Ben Johnson guy. And you hope that, like, just a fresh...
59:33There's going to be more under center. It's going to look different.
59:37Are there growing pains there? We'll see. Speaking of schematic bump, you're also hoping on the defensive side of the ball that Minter can come in.
59:46Going back to the McDonald defense and provide a schematic bump.
59:49Because there's certainly questions on the defense. You know, you have Marlon Humphrey, who is, I think, beyond washed at this point.
59:56A Woozie has been solid. But can he stay healthy?
60:00And he's 31. Like, that's not great for a corner.
60:03Nate Wiggins, hopefully, I mean, at least didn't have a serious injury.
60:07You can rely on him. You still have one of the best defenders in the NFL in Kyle Hamilton.
60:13Unfortunately, by bringing in, like, Hawkins, you have Hawkins and Starks.
60:16You can hold down safety. You can use Hamilton as, you know, the Derwin James, like McDonald likes to use...
60:23that Minter likes to use. And you can use him as your chess piece joker.
60:28But up front, can you get pressure? That might come down to Matabuke.
60:32Is he going to be healthy? No one really knows.
60:35Is he going to be the same player? Linebacker?
60:38Aging? Smith? Roquan's not getting any younger. He's 29.
60:41Who's next to him? I don't know. I mean, you might as well just go dime a ton.
60:47You don't want to play... I mean, Teddy Buchanan's coming off an ACL.
60:51Simpson, you don't want out there. You might as well just go dime.
60:55Just have Hendrick... I mean, just have Humphrey in there.
60:58Maybe it's Chandler Rivers. That's an interesting name. Maybe he can become the nickel.
61:03But he's a rookie, and he's undersized. We'll see.
61:06But that's the hope. There's a schematic bump with Minter.
61:09You have a McDonald guy, a Ben Johnson guy.
61:12They're going to bring the schematic bump to Baltimore.
61:15I have my doubts. There's a lot of questions.
61:18There's a lot of change. They also don't have the elite special teams anymore.
61:22This is a team that used to always be first, second, third in special teams.
61:27And that would reliably get you a couple close games.
61:30They don't have that. And that's what cost them the playoffs last year.
61:35Yeah. Lou Barty missed the kick in preseason, too.
61:38Where's his head? So, the good thing is, with all this change, it is a very easy first six games.
61:44Yeah. Well... I'm not saying they're going to... Indianapolis Colts, put them.
61:48But, like, I mean, out Dallas isn't easy to go either.
61:51But I'm saying just in general, right? You have the Saints at home, the Titans at home.
61:57At Atlanta, that's looking easier by the day. At Cleveland.
62:00So, like, there's a good chance you can get off to a really good start here.
62:05That indie game is, I think, really big for them.
62:09Like, you win that, you could be potentially 5-1, 6-0.
62:12Then you're hosting Cincy. So, it's a pretty favorable schedule.
62:15How much of a schematic bump can these new coaches...
62:18And how much more energy and a new voice...
62:21Those things that are very tough to measure. How much can they bring to Baltimore?
62:26I am skeptical. I don't think this team is as elite as everyone is assuming, based on, you know, their helmets and pedigree over the past eight years.
62:35I project them at... Yeah, I'm at, like, 10-1⁄2.
62:38So, I know it's 11-1⁄2 juice to the under.
62:41I think I've got to make this team prove they can win 12 games with all of the questions and all of the change.
62:49The first bet I placed this season was the Ravens under 11-1⁄2.
62:53And it has slowly ticked up in terms of juice.
62:56I'm just not really sure what they are in the trenches anymore.
63:00That's the big thing. Like, when you have a defense that was so injured like it was last year, I'm always hesitant
63:07to just pencil them back into what we thought they were two years ago or three years ago.
63:13Because these guys are aging. These guys start to pick up injuries.
63:17They slow down. Like, you know, Nani Badebique was potentially in a career-ending injury situation.
63:21Like, that was the conversation being had about him last year when he went out for the season.
63:27And now we're just expecting him to walk back in and be the same, you know, Pro Bowl-level player that he was beforehand.
63:35Hendrickson comes in. That should fix the pressure rate.
63:38But they've got a long way to go. They were 28th last year.
63:42Generating pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. And like you said, two of the three corners are past 30.
63:48And that's a scary sight for me, too. So yes, you assume that they'll take a little bit of a step forward defensively.
63:55But the conversations I hear and like the way the market is pricing this defense is like a sixth or seventh best defense in the league.
64:03I think it's very, I'm very dubious of those kind of defenses.
64:07I think we have a few, like you said earlier, with Houston, Seattle, with McDonald, with Denver, that are kind of plug-and-play-ish.
64:14The kind of defenses that Baltimore's rolling out are the exact kind of defenses where we talk about them and say, man, where did it all go wrong?
64:23Again, you know, for a second straight year, even though they bring in Hendrickson.
64:28So I have major questions about them in both trenches.
64:31Their explosive play rate took a dip last year on both sides of the ball.
64:36As a result of that, you know, you're relying a lot on Lamar.
64:40Who, like, where are you on Lamar as a Ravens fan?
64:44Because to me, this is eye test. The numbers sort of back it up.
64:48He just didn't seem like the same level of explosive last year.
64:52Was he injured? Was he trying to protect himself slash save himself?
64:56I don't know the answer to that. But I think...
64:59He's just not as explosive anymore. He's 29. He's had injuries.
65:03And the offensive line is worse. And he just doesn't have the same burst.
65:07So, like, yeah, that's why under pressure, he didn't look as good.
65:11He couldn't escape. That's why his pressure to Sackery went way up.
65:15That's why the red zone numbers plummeted. So, he's still very good.
65:19And maybe Doyle can provide that schematic bump and this all clicks.
65:23But you need a lot of things to go right for this to go right.
65:28And health is one of them. And they're aging in a number of different positions.
65:33The hope is that, you know, you mentioned the pressure rate.
65:36I mean, last year, they were bottom three in Sackery.
65:39Pressure rate. Get off time. So, you hope that Matabuke comes back healthy.
65:44You get the pressure from the interior there. And then Hendrickson gives you a boost on off the edge.
65:50And then some of these younger guys can take advantage of some of the attention that those two are getting.
65:56And then Minter, you know, is scheming up the back end to limit explosive plays, create some turnover.
66:02So, there's a path. And the schedule is pretty favorable.
66:05Yeah. But too many questions for me. I'll make them prove that they can win 12 games.
66:11Let's move on to the Bengals. Win total sitting at 10 and a half.
66:15Like I said, DraftKings plus 184 to win the division.
66:19They're running it back on offense. That's all you can say.
66:22There's nothing changed. This is the first time in Burrow's career that he's had the same five starting offensive linemen coming back.
66:29And it's like one of the first times ever, knock on wood, that he's healthy going in to the regular season.
66:36And the offensive line did improve in the second half of last year.
66:40It's been just a complete train wreck for most of Burrow's career.
66:44I'm still not a believer in Orlando Brown. But look, you got the same five offensive linemen coming back.
66:50You still have Brown in the backfield, Higgins, Chase.
66:53This offense, if they're healthy, with Burrow, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
66:58They'll be fine. Question, like top five, fine. Top three, potentially with a ceiling of the best.
67:04The questions are the defense. Can this defense get to...
67:07I mean, the offense finished 13th in DVUA last year.
67:10And Burrow was hurt most of the year. And they had like Jake Browning starting games and Joe Flacco.
67:16So I think this is a top five offense, if healthy.
67:20Can the defense get to league average? Which they were in the second half of last year.
67:25Now you might say, okay, there's too much noise.
67:28We can't take much from that. I think you can.
67:31Because there were real changes, right? You were able to put Dax Hill and Turner on the outside.
67:37You bring in Jalen Davis to play the slot.
67:40There's Nichols' situation. He still can't defend the run.
67:43And he's like a 30-year-old journeyman. I want them to go get Kenny Moore, by the way.
67:49But I think it would make so much sense for both.
67:52He wants to go to a contender. They need a nickel.
67:56But you were able to play the best corners that you had on the outside.
68:01They both thrived on the outside. Your rookie linebackers, who were historically bad in night and quarter, they started to play a
68:08little bit better and started to adjust to the speed of the NFL.
68:12And they've looked better. And the reports are getting better.
68:15Still not going to be a great linebacker unit.
68:18But again, you want to get this to a league average defense.
68:22Yeah, you lost Hendrickson, but you didn't have him for most of the year.
68:26And the defense started to improve in the second half of the year.
68:31You had some other guys like Murphy, Osai. Some of these younger guys started to play better.
68:36And now you bring in Dexter Lawrence in the interior.
68:39And additionally, Al Golden was doing some crazy shit early in the year schematically with his coverages in the back end.
68:46Simplified a lot going back to his Notre Dame roots.
68:49And what you needed to do with rookie linebackers.
68:52And it helped a lot. They were so out of position early in the year.
68:57It was crazy. So do I think this defense can get to...
69:01I mean, they went from 32nd to 13th. From the first half to the second half.
69:06And DVOA last year. And that was without Hendrickson.
69:09It was the largest second half defensive improvement by DVOA since the 2014 Rams.
69:14Do I think they can get to league average?
69:17Yeah, I do. Maybe like 17th, 16th. Which is, I think, all they need to do to have a shot in the AFC.
69:24All they need to do to win this division.
69:27And by the way, you know what the biggest off-season news was for the Bengals?
69:32No more Miles Garrett who terrorized Joe Barrow. Miles Garrett anymore.
69:35So yeah, I think that there was real reasons for the defensive improvement.
69:39So it's not going to be a great day.
69:42It can't be a great day just given the personnel.
69:46But second year of Golden coaching this defense too.
69:49Now, the depth is scary. Had a lot of positions.
69:52So health is going to be important. They also had like nine defensive touchdowns go against them last year.
69:58Which was pretty insane. I like this team. I feel like everyone likes this team.
70:03I don't care. I actually project them. I didn't even mention they have the easiest schedule in the league.
70:09That's their thing, yeah. So because of that, I do have the Ravens power rated ahead of the Bengals.
70:15Not by much. But because of that, the schedule.
70:18I have the Bengals projected for, if you round up to 10.6.
70:22So I have them projected for more wins. Basically the same.
70:25But I'm getting plus 180. On the division? Yeah.
70:28And I know that the Steelers could, their win total is eight and a half.
70:33But I like this Bengals team. If they stay healthy, I have more confidence in them than I do the Ravens right now.
70:41It makes sense with the schedule being what it is.
70:44I just don't know what this offense is actually going to be.
70:48It's totally different now. This is not like the shotgun spread offense we used to see where they would just isolate their
70:55better players and cook you with them regularly. Honestly, as much as we love this Bengals group on paper, if you go
71:02through the numbers, there's actually very few stretches where they were an elite offense.
71:06There's patches of a season where they were an elite offense.
71:10But if I control, I went rbsdm.com, running backs don't matter.
71:14And I went through every season. And there isn't a single one where Burrow actually finishes top five in EPA per dropback.
71:21So part of me is like, okay, they're trying to change this offense.
71:25They're trying to go under center more, the classic NFL thing.
71:28It's a copycat league, right? The Seahawks win the Super Bowl doing this.
71:33And now you've got Philly doing it. You've got Cincinnati doing it.
71:37Even teams that were good offensively are trying this format.
71:40And I'm just not really sure that it's going to work for this group of players.
71:45Because this group of players... You're looking at individual seasons?
71:48Yeah. And I'm just doing Joe Burrow. Yeah, you have to keep in mind...
71:53And I know you don't want to filter too many things.
71:56But most of the seasons, he was awful in the first month because he was coming off an injury.
72:02Right. And every season, his offensive line has been worse.
72:06And they never returned all five starters. So this is the best outlook from a health perspective and from a returning experience perspective along the offensive line.
72:14And then you add in the schedule. That's why I'm a little more bullish than you might be.
72:20I guess what I'm trying to say is I think this is the kind of team that might actually be pretty good and a flat track bully.
72:29And so for betting them win total over or to win the division, they might hold up.
72:34But they're the kind of team that... I've got to look at their schedule here.
72:39When's their first big test? Well, at Houston, week two.
72:43Okay, so week two at Houston. They're going to be a small dog.
72:47I think that's the kind of... They could run into some problems when they face great defenses.
72:52At Pittsburgh, week three is a tough one too.
72:55So I think if you're a team that can't get pressure and Burrow's able to just do the new play action stuff...
73:02I just think this offense has more change than people realize.
73:06And therefore, I'm not willing to pencil them in as a lead right off the rim.
73:11Got it. But I'm not betting they're under because the schedule really is too easy.
73:16It's too easy. Let's move on to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
73:19Now we're talking. Over eight and a half win total.
73:22No more Tomlin. Can they find a way to keep the streak going?
73:27The Mike McCarthy era begins. And on paper, you say that they improved their offense.
73:31I mean, Rodgers comes back. He's 42. Same old story with these Steelers.
73:36They refuse to just reset. They didn't even get a young coach.
73:39They could bring in Mike McCarthy. Just like they're...
73:42That's who they replaced Tomlin with. And they bring back Rodgers again.
73:46They need to go. They need to go three and 14 this year.
73:50I'm a Steelers fan. That's what I'm rooting for.
73:53I think they're going to go eight and nine again and lose in the wild card.
73:59I mean, nine and eight and losing the wild card.
74:02You need to... This is the year. It would be perfectly timed, Pittsburgh.
74:06You got to enjoy all the success of winning seasons.
74:09But this is the quarterback draft. You want to just everything go wrong, right?
74:14You finally don't win every close game. You finally don't recover every fumble.
74:18You finally don't have a plus 15 turnover margin.
74:21Like you do every year. And the voodoo finally ends.
74:24This is Tomlin's job. Get out of the way.
74:27Take the voodoo so you can get a top three pick and get your quarterback for the future.
74:33That's what you need to do. You can argue that they improve their offense because, you know, Metcalf comes back and then you add Pittman.
74:41So your receiving room is definitely better. And you got to hope that these investments that you made along the offensive line start to pay off.
74:49And there's been flashes here and there. And you're going to need it because Rodgers doesn't want to get hit.
74:56And he's just going to get rid of the ball quick.
74:59You need to protect him. Under pressure, he doesn't have a chance now.
75:04Mm-hmm. And here's the thing. McCarthy comes in and some of these guys that you're relying on.
75:09You have Frazier at center, who I like. But Falotano, you're moving from right guard, right tackle to left tackle.
75:15You're moving McCormick from right guard to left guard.
75:18And so far, the returns have been like it's a little shaky.
75:22Then you're going to have Spencer Anderson at right guard, which is a downgrade from Sayamola.
75:27Sayamola. Sayamola. Sayamola. Sayamola. And then you're going to have Dylan Cook, who looked good for a small stretch.
75:34Because it doesn't look – Ian Ocho has been dealing with an injury.
75:38It doesn't look like he's going to be ready.
75:41So your first-round pick, that doesn't look like he's going to start early and maybe not this year.
75:47But we'll see. So I don't know if your offensive line got better.
75:51And now you're moving all kinds of positions. And Aaron Rodgers is a year older.
75:56So we'll see how this all works. Defensively, there's some injury concerns already off the bat.
76:01Joey Porter, Jalen Ramsey, who you're going to have in a full-time nickel role.
76:05If they're healthy, you kind of can see how the secondary could work.
76:10You had Brisker. Deshaun Elliott. After they lost him last year, you could see his impact being felt when he wasn't on the field.
76:17But if you have Joey Porter, add Jamel Dean, who's just always solid every year.
76:22Brisker, Elliott, Ramsey in the slot. And then you have a very good front seven.
76:27I think Patrick Queen's overrated. But the rest, there's some age concerns, right?
76:31Like Hayward's not getting any younger. Watt's not getting any younger.
76:35But you have a lot of depth and a lot of guys that can play along that front seven.
76:41And I like Patrick Graham. Mad man Pat Graham.
76:44He always gets the best. Like this is the most.
76:47This is why I'm very bullish Pittsburgh. Like this is the best.
76:51This is like an all-star team for him. He's used to like the Giants and the Raiders rosters.
76:57So I can see this defense working. Top five.
77:00Yeah, I can see it. Unless all the voodoo goes away and they just don't get any turnovers.
77:05Yeah, but they still get a lot of pass rush.
77:09So I think generally speaking, there's five teams that everybody sees as the five best defenses in the league.
77:15And like I do have them rated as that.
77:18Houston, Seattle, the Rams, the Broncos, and Philly. And then it's kind of like a debate after that.
77:24If there's any defense that I think is going to jump into that top five, I'm taking Pittsburgh.
77:29Yeah. And that assumes help. Obviously, like yes, they're down a couple of guys on the back end.
77:35Honestly, if they didn't have corners, they could probably still shut down the Falcons in week one.
77:41But they're going to need them for week two and three when they play New England and Cincinnati back to back.
77:47And then maybe they rest their corners against Cleveland and they'll be bad.
77:52No, I'm kidding. But seriously, though, like I think one of the main reasons that people got kind of just tired of
77:59Tomlin besides the mediocrity, you can't blame Tomlin for the quarterback situation.
78:03Like the revolving door musical chair stuff is kind of a victim of their own success.
78:08And they get stuck with a lot of like mid to bad quarterbacks, washed Rodgers, yada, yada.
78:13But you can blame him for the fact that the defense was slowly, slowly sliding off a cliff.
78:19And every time they played a competent offense, they were getting torched and flambéed with regularity on the back end.
78:26Like their coverages two years ago, their defense in the second half was awful.
78:30You know what Philly did to them? They had that like 10 minute drive.
78:35Cincinnati was torching them. Indy put the sword to them in that one game in Indy.
78:40And then last year was the worst defense they've ever had, despite the pressure rate being fine.
78:45I mean, TJ Watt is not prime TJ Watt anymore.
78:49But it felt like for a while he was the only guy holding up the defense.
78:54So to go from Tomlin and Austin, who I think were past it defensively, to Graham, who I love and I think
79:01honestly had a relatively competent defense in Vegas, despite no talent whatsoever besides Crosby.
79:05I think they could be a... They had a lot of average.
79:09Like it's insane. They had nobody. Nobody. So I love this defense.
79:13And like you said, I think they can run the ball.
79:17And the thing about the turnover margin, how much you want to bet Pittsburgh has a good turnover margin this year?
79:24Yeah. I mean, Rodgers is never going to turn it over really.
79:27Yeah. They're going to play short, play safe. They're going to force pressure.
79:32They're going to get turnovers and they're going to win nine or 10 games again.
79:36That's what I think for Pittsburgh this year. I'm going over.
79:40One of my favorite overs of the year. The one stretch that I'm a little scared is they have a bye in week nine.
79:48And then coming out of the bye, they have a at Cincy, at Philly, Denver, Houston.
79:53Philly, Denver, Houston. Back to back. They're going to need to like rest Rodgers or something because he's going to take a lot of hits.
80:01So if he can survive that three game stretch where they play three of the other best defenses in the league with
80:08like absolute insane pass rushes, then they're going to be just fine.
80:12I think they get off to a good start.
80:15They need to get off to a good start.
80:18Seven of their final nine are against teams projected to make the playoffs.
80:22Also more twice. Jacksonville. Yeah. So, yeah. Five and one limp to nine and eight season, but I think they're live for the division.
80:30I bet them to win the division. They're my pick to win this division at plus 550.
80:35And I'm going over. I don't mind it. I thought about it.
80:39I just can't trust Rodgers at this point. And I do have concerns about the offensive line, like flipping your right to left.
80:47And then there's now questions on the right. But I'm not selling them.
80:51I project eight right around where they are. I definitely, I was like, I'm going to be selling them.
80:57And then I priced it out. And I like this defense.
81:01Now, you want to get good news on the corners.
81:04Um, so, because the depth is a little concerning, but I love Patrick Graham and he's worked under like Belichick floors, petting,
81:11like all these different, he always just gets the most out of his roster.
81:15You're going to see more nickel. And as long as Ramsey is, I mean, Ramsey's 31, but I think he can still
81:23play, um, especially in that nickel role. Yeah. I don't, I don't disagree with you with loving this defense and thinking they have top five potential.
81:31All right. Let's finish up with the Cleveland Browns.
81:34Win total. Sitting at five and, uh, yeah, five and a half juice to the over.
81:39I mean, we really need to talk about the Browns.
81:42Um, what is there to say? How bad can the defense get without Garrett?
81:47Is the first question. Well, now you're, I mean, like I like the trade because for them, um, I thought it was a positive trade, right?
81:55Actually for both. Like if you're going all in for this year, go get Garrett.
82:00Yep. The Browns are obviously trying to win in like two to three years from now.
82:05They got a fun team. Yeah. Yeah. So like, you know, you bring in verse a younger pass rushers who's pretty good,
82:12but like, yeah, you lose the defensive, the best, arguably the best defensive player.
82:17There's going to be a drop there. Alex, right.
82:20Potentially out for the year. Yeah. Yeah. That's bad because they're, they don't have any depth on that, on the edge and Malik Collins injury questions.
82:28And then you look at their secondary grant Delpit.
82:31Very underrated. Uh, he had a very good year, but they had their nickel situation is as bad as any in the league.
82:39Denzel Ward is going to be 30. And he has a history of concussions.
82:43And if anyone gets hurt in the secondary, they have the worst corner depth in the league.
82:49So like if Denzel Ward goes down, it's like, I don't even know who the, I know like every roster.
82:55I don't even know the backup is, um, is it like, uh, I don't even know.
83:00I don't even know a backup corner on the, on the Browns.
83:04Nate Evans. I think. Named D'Angelo Ross. I know it's bleak.
83:08So you say how bad can it get? One corner injury.
83:11This thing all falls apart. And then the offense, like maybe the offense, they wipe the offensive line out.
83:17It's five new starters. You're going to start a rookie at left tackle.
83:22You sign Zion Johnson from the Chargers guard. You have two Jenkinses on the offensive line.
83:27And Titus Howard comes over right tackle. He's 30, but he does like a high floor.
83:32Maybe the offense, I'm so bad last year. Maybe this can be a little better.
83:37Judkins health is a question. Fannin is a stud.
83:40You definitely got better at receiver. You added Boston and Concepcion, but these are all things that you're adding for next year.
83:47This is all about getting a quarterback next year.
83:50And then they're going to start Watson. Like why?
83:53I don't like, who is this for the owner?
83:56At least just throw Sanders out there. And what if, if you have something and someone trades for him, what if you get like, then great.
84:04Pick for him. Yeah. You know why the Browns over is a lock?
84:08Because they're going to box themselves out of a quarterback with this good roster.
84:13It's going to lead them to seven wins somehow.
84:16Just like lucky. How is that possible though? Just lucky wins.
84:19They're going to face a pretty easy schedule. There's yeah.
84:22It's going to be a bad team, but I'm just saying that's very, very brownish.
84:27But the defense already, you know, you already lost Garrett.
84:30You're probably going to lose right now. And if you lose anyone in the secondary, no thanks.
84:36So there's 33, 32 teams in the NFL, right?
84:39If you split the Browns into two teams, the Miles Garrett is on the field Browns and the Miles Garrett is off the field Browns.
84:47You have 33 NFL teams since 2020. This is from Diggs, NFL handicapper who just started a sub stack and he had a good post.
84:55The Browns are the number one pass defense when Miles Garrett is on the field the last six years.
85:01When Miles Garrett is off the field, they're 32nd.
85:04That's amazing. 1300 dropbacks in the off category. It's like the TJ Watt Steelers.
85:09It's like whenever TJ Watt didn't play, Pittsburgh became like the bargain bottom of the barrel basement defense.
85:14And I got a lot of fears that Cleveland, I mean, they have young, like you said, they have young guys we
85:22like, like Graham and Schlesinger, but you know. It's not going to be that drastic because you did bring in verse.
85:28Bring in verse. But it's going to be pronounced.
85:31Yeah. So, and you take away, like how many games did Cleveland almost win last year because their defense just like put teams in a blender at home?
85:40I mean, that was like all the attention that went to Garrett benefit in the others.
85:45Everybody else. Yeah. Also, their wins last year were kind of scammy.
85:49If you go look at how they clawed their way to five last year, and I'm not convinced the quarterback situation is any better.
85:57Like Joe Flacco at least gave them some decent offense.
86:00Their wins last year were Green Bay when Love threw a pick, a ridiculously inexplicable pick six in the final minutes.
86:07And then they were able to steal that on the last second field goal.
86:12They beat Miami in that game where nobody could throw the ball.
86:16They just ran it the whole game. And then they, yeah, they took down Vegas, two win Vegas.
86:21And then they had two end of season wins where basically nothing was at stake.
86:26Pittsburgh was playing for the following week and Cincinnati, it was a dead rubber.
86:31Are you going under? I want to go under really bad, but I also hate the idea of having like potentially, well,
86:38I don't have two unders in this division. I haven't bet it yet.
86:42So far in this division, I've only bet Ravens, Ravens under and Bengals or Steelers over.
86:47But if I bet anything here, it's like, I think it's all unders though.
86:52Like, I think you take under three and a half.
86:55Good stuff going through the AFC North and AFC South.
86:58It was a pleasure, brother. But before we get out of here, let's get into our favorite bets from the AFC North and South presented by DraftKings.
87:07I'll kick things off. I'm going to go with the Bengals to win the division.
87:12I'm projected to win the most wins in this division.
87:15I'm a fan of the Ravens, but I have a lot of questions.
87:19I still have questions about Rodgers and that offensive line in Pittsburgh.
87:23Maybe the voodoo finally runs out, even though I do like the defense in Patrick Graham.
87:28Burrow coming into the year healthy, an offensive line returning five starters for the first time in the Burrow era.
87:35A defense that I think can reach or at least sniff league average after some of the things we saw in the second half of last year.
87:44And the cherry on top is the easiest schedule in the league.
87:47So give me Cincy to win the division. Partial fate of my Ravens, who I am lower on the market and don't mind the under on Baltimore.
87:56Anthony, where are you going? Tennessee under six and a half wins.
88:00I continue to not believe in this organization. I don't think they're a well-run group.
88:05Like you said earlier, like we said earlier, they went out and brought in a lot of retread players from previous stops
88:12that Dayball and Sala have familiarity with. But I'm not sure that's a positive thing given the track record of those teams.
88:19I think Cam Ward has a long way to go and would need to take a significant, significantly double leap forward to
88:26get this team to seven or eight wins in a competitive AFC South.
88:30And I just don't think this roster is really close to competing right now as they continue to rebuild.
88:37So even though I like a lot of like the young receivers, I am out on Tennessee under six and a half in a tough division.
88:45Others have a quick look. So Ravens under for me.
88:48Same. Angles division to win the Super Bowl. I don't mind if you wanted to take a division flyer on the Colts.
88:55I will be selling the Jags. I think this is a seven and 10 year for the Jags.
89:01And I also like the Texans Super Bowl long shot, as I mentioned.
89:05If you're if you're a fan of any of the teams we discussed today, just remember that DraftKings Sports is now available in all 50 states.
89:14So you can get in on all the action no matter where you are.
89:18So our Texas listeners high on Houston this year or our Florida listeners high on the Jags.
89:24Really anyone where wherever you are and whoever you're backing lock in with DraftKings Sports.
89:29And don't forget to use promo code Action Network when signing up.
89:33That'll do it for us. Thanks to Anthony for joining me.
89:36Thanks to our producers on the back end. That's in the business.
89:40You can find Anthony's work at the ringer. Does a great job in football, soccer, various sports.
89:45That'll do it for the AFC. NFC will be out shortly.
89:49Let's have a season. Make sure you subscribe, unsubscribe, subscribe to our friend.
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