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2:08The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action, boss.
2:11Ready? Hey! All right, here we go. From the tent, throwing in zone.
2:15Spectacular catch. They're saying it's a catch. Touchdown. You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
2:21Oh my God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.
2:25All right. That is the ultimate kibosh. You want to bet?
2:29And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.
2:32I am Gilles Galantz. I am joined by NFL betting expert and futures analyst, Brandon Anderson.
2:36It was Rankings Week here in the Action Network, and we liked it so much, we figured, why don't we just keep ranking stuff?
2:43So, rankings episodes are going to continue here with the Action Network.
2:47Today, though, we are looking at offenses. The NFL offensive side of the ball.
2:51We're going to rank 1 through 32. In the NFL.
2:54Now, Brandon, before we get into these tiers, some of the listeners may have listened to our pods already of skill position,
3:00quarterback, offensive line, and how we ranked those. I guess the question I would ask is, how does the criteria or even
3:07like the traits that you're looking for, how does that differ compared to what we did last week?
3:12Yeah, so this is really kind of the culmination of all that stuff, right?
3:16So, if you haven't listened yet, be sure to go back and listen or get the written form.
3:21We've got articles up at Action Network for all of these.
3:25So, quarterback, skill position, offensive line, that's it. That's the whole 11 that are out there.
3:29And then coaching, specifically for this one, what we call offensive coordinator, which is, you know, whoever's calling the plays there.
3:35That's a force multiplier. So, on all the parts, we're adding it all up.
3:40It's not additive. I'm kind of weighting things differently.
3:42Obviously, I want to make quarterbacks worth the most.
3:45We talked about like running backs versus receiving and all that sort of stuff.
3:49Passing game, more important than rushing game. And then, importantly, with offenses here, offense is stickier than defense.
3:54Just because if you have the star quarterback and or the star play caller, we pretty much know you're going to be good on offense year after year.
4:02So, that's why, you know, we love the 1 to 32 rankings.
4:06I see a lot of rank the top 10 offenses podcasts out there.
4:10And then they even go 10 down to 1.
4:12It's like, all right, come on. We already know the Rams and the Bills.
4:16Like, we already know who the teams are at the top.
4:20That's not really the fun part. The hard part is the teams past the top 10.
4:24The teams in the middle, especially kind of sorting out like, okay, what do we make of all this stuff there?
4:30So, we'll get to all that. And then just to stay on this one, we know I'm very big on DVOA.
4:37It adds a lot of context in, takes in a schedule and that sort of thing.
4:41I look at that for a lot of numbers to kind of help me direct on how the history has gone for
4:48players, coaches, teams, that sort of thing. These rankings are effectively me trying to predict who finishes at the top in DVOA.
4:54DVOA, who finishes at the bottom. And then basically, the further you get from the middle, the more my confidence is that you are directionally heading that way.
5:02So, not necessarily if you're number eight, I don't necessarily think you are the eighth best offense exactly.
5:08Maybe more like your eighth most likely to finish at the top of the league.
5:12So, near the top, I'm focusing more on ceiling.
5:15And can you get there near the bottom? Focusing more on what if the bottom drops out?
5:20How bad can it get? And, well, we'll get to those teams at the end.
5:24But as always, rankings and tiers, teams that are grouped together means they're pretty close.
5:28And again, probably near the top, I'm looking for upside at the top of the tier.
5:33Yeah, I was going to say, when you see some of those top 10 lists, it looks just like somebody just copied
5:40and pasted the top 10 in Super Bowl odds with an AI image.
5:43That's literally all the post is, right? So, all right.
5:46Well, let's get into your offensive rankings. We'll start at the top, tier one.
5:50We're going to run it back. The Los Angeles Rams, by themselves, by the way, alone in tier one.
5:56I don't think we need anybody to, like, we're not surprised that the Rams are at the top.
6:01Maybe I'm a little surprised they're alone at the top.
6:04Like, they led the league in DVOA, first place in both run and pass.
6:08Let's not talk about the good stuff about the Rams.
6:11What could go wrong with the Rams? Why wouldn't they be at the top of the league again by the end of the year?
6:18Yeah, we know all the good stuff. Stafford, we know.
6:21Puka and Devante receiving. Kyron and Corum, we've talked about the one-two punch, the top 10 offensive line, all the tight ends we love.
6:28And obviously, Sean McVay. So, you get the quarterback and the play caller and all the weapons.
6:33Pretty obvious, number one, when they were so good last year.
6:36The question then is, can you do it again?
6:39Because, don't forget, a year ago at this time, Baltimore was the number one in running and passing.
6:44And this, like, hyper-elite efficient offense. It turns out, if you're historically good, it's really hard to be historically good again the next year.
6:51That's, like, the whole point of being something historically is that it's not repeatable.
6:55So, this was especially rushing attack. Historically great by success rate, by some of those other measures.
7:00This rushing team was as good as it gets.
7:03And actually, kind of surprising maybe, eight of nine McVay years, the rushing DVOA has actually been as good or better than the passing.
7:10Even though we often think about, you know, the fireworks and the passing, that run game is the floor.
7:16So, if that does regress, look, it has to.
7:18It has to be a little bit down. Especially, talked about the line lacking some depth.
7:23Alaric Jackson, the left tackle, still question mark for on- and off-field reasons.
7:27If that comes back a little bit, the DVOA has to come back a little bit.
7:31Let me ask you this, Jill. So, they were number one last year, led with that.
7:36We have five Stafford seasons now. Throwing out the number one, not throwing it out, but setting that aside last year, what
7:42do you think is the Rams' top DVOA offensive ranking in any of the other four Stafford seasons?
7:48I would think it would probably be the first year when they went to the Super Bowl.
7:53I'm going to say eighth? Eighth is correct. It's eighth, ninth, and tenth, and then there's a 23rd.
7:58Yeah, you nailed that one. Well done. But, that should give us a little bit of pause of just assuming the Rams
8:04is going to run it back as this crazy number one offense.
8:08What a case. Eighth is great, but eighth is not first.
8:11That's a big fall off. Well done at nailing that one.
8:14But, it does give us, like, everything on paper, everything from last year, this is number one with the bullet all alone.
8:21So, that's where I'm ranking to start out. History says it's hard to do it two years in a row.
8:27Yeah, and you mentioned the year-over-year aspect. Like, last year at this time, we weren't even sure if Matthew Stafford was going
8:33to be on the field just given the back issues and whatnot.
8:37And here we are now. They're back at the top of the NFL offensive ranking.
8:41So, that's number one in Tier 1. Let's move to Tier 2.
8:45You call that gunning for that number one spot.
8:47Shout out to Nelly. Number two, you got the Bills.
8:50Number three, the 49ers. Number four, the Cowboys. Thank you.
8:53And number five, the Chicago Bears. Okay, not a lot of surprises in this group.
8:57I will say the one team that probably did surprise me the most was the 49ers.
9:02We'll talk about them here in a second. But Buffalo, I want to start with them because you seem, you know, when
9:09we did the rankings pods last week, outside of Josh Allen, you seem pretty lukewarm on the rest of the faces of this offense.
9:16Offensive line, you know, scale positions and whatnot. And then, of course, the 49ers, we talked about how you were, you agreed
9:22with me that the age, health problems, attrition, it's all kind of adding up.
9:26But then even with all of that, we still have them at two and three.
9:30So, make the case. Yeah, I mean, the case is in this instance, history, in our favor because the Bills by DVOA,
9:37top five, four straight years, by passing DVOA alone, top three, four of the last five years.
9:42Now, notably, the one they didn't was last year.
9:45They dropped down to 10th. Josh Allen was not his usual MVP self, especially taking sacks, navigating pocket, not quite as good as he has been.
9:52But we obviously get turnover here, but we did not turn over the play caller, Joe Brady.
9:57So, Joe Brady with him, the big leap has been not Allen.
10:01It's been the power run game. It's been James Cook, those blockers, that continuity on the line, top 10, four years in
10:07a row in Buffalo, top five each of the last two years.
10:11And we talked about the receivers. I think D.J.
10:13Moore is a good fit, even though I don't think he is a star or number one guy for them.
10:19But those receivers block well. The tight ends add a lot of blocking.
10:23Even if they kind of take a slight step back there on the offensive line, this run-heavy script with the rushing offense
10:29that's just built around Allen's skill set and everything else here, it's such a reliable floor.
10:34And you know Allen's going to do the passing.
10:37So, look, I don't love how run-heavy the play calling is here under Brady.
10:41It's part of why I'm a little bit tepid on the team as a whole.
10:45I think it sort of artificially caps the ceiling a little bit.
10:49And that's why we end up having to have Josh Allen don the cape and play Superman late in the game sometimes.
10:55I'd rather they just let him do that the rest of the game, and it looks pretty good.
11:00But at the top, it's Buffalo. Every year, it's one, two, three, four, one in that range.
11:05And again, we're looking at how likely are you?
11:08And Buffalo is as likely as anyone. I think the Niners are not that far off either.
11:13They have been top nine in DVOA, six of seven Shanahan seasons.
11:16And think about that with the substation and all the other injuries and year after year, the long list of all the names.
11:23And it's just another top 10 offense in San Francisco.
11:26Now, the rushing attack is kind of quietly slipping the last few years.
11:30McCaffrey even wasn't that great as a runner last year.
11:33But I think that's sort of been offset by the growth of Brock Purdy.
11:37I think the passing offense has gotten a lot better.
11:40Purdy now three full years as a starter. The Niners are averaging the number four DVO offense with top two in two of those three years.
11:47And he was hurt for part of the other year.
11:50So let me word that differently. Healthy Brock Purdy in Shanahan's system has been a top two offense, period.
11:56Even with all the other injuries on the line and all the weapons and everything else.
12:01So yes, I'm afraid of all the injuries on the line and all the weapons and everything else.
12:06But as long as it's Purdy and as long as it's Shanahan, history says we just should expect them to run it back near the top again.
12:14Definitely. And the 49ers just at least have that.
12:16We talk of this word pedigree, you know, that precedent that they have set on offense.
12:21The one team, though, that really came out of the gates was the Bears.
12:25Ben Johnson's arrival. You were one of the first people on Bears Island.
12:29Shout out to worst to first from a division standpoint.
12:32Is there any reason to believe they can get even better in year two under Ben Johnson?
12:37Yeah, I don't see why not. The Bears had been 22nd to 26th in offense six straight years.
12:42And then Ben shows up and they immediately go top 10.
12:45I think we had them eighth last year. They finished ninth here.
12:49The big, big jump, especially in the run game.
12:52I think that should be very strong again. It's Ben Johnson, man.
12:55He's elevating the offensive line. He's helping Caleb Williams grow.
12:58We talked about the way that kind of cut down some of those mistakes and got a lot better managing the pocket.
13:04It's the run heavy script sets the high floor and then you open up the play action.
13:09What I'd love to see where, where can they grow?
13:12We talked of this with Caleb, eat some more vegetables.
13:15Give me some of the more in-between stuff. It's still a little bit too much of a home run offense.
13:21They're getting the big plays, but especially in Ben Johnson, the football, you want to get the, the, the in-between the easier stuff as well.
13:28And I think if we can get some of the more vegetables along the way, and then those pass catchers, Bird and
13:35Odunze and obviously Loveland, if they take the leap, that's the area of growth.
13:39Then the sky's the limit here. But I think projecting top five as a slight step forward from top 10 is the
13:45right way to go with Ben Johnson. Okay. So you just said something top five, Dallas Cowboys, top five offense.
13:51That's that, that's music to my ears, but make the case.
13:54What's like the ceiling that you could think of with Dallas then?
13:58Yeah. I've seen some people out there have Dallas as high as number one, and I want to get that excited about it.
14:05I have a hard time getting quite to number one, healthy Dak Prescott.
14:09You know, I'm a Dak guy. Top 10 DVOA, six of his seven healthy seasons.
14:13So you're getting that floor in the top 10.
14:16And the problem is it's usually in the six to 10 range, not the top five range.
14:21So for me, this is the leap already into the top five.
14:24And last year, Clayton Adams showing up, the big leap was actually in the run game.
14:29We got a lot of attention on George Pickens, but you know, Javante Williams and those other options, those are not the strongest running backs in the league.
14:37We love Hunter Lipke, the fullback from NDSU. Love my guy there, but these aren't the best options attacking.
14:42But Clayton Adams is this creative run game attacker.
14:45That's where the leap was. I do think that's too.
14:48Last year, as well, you know, horrible, horrible defense.
14:51Last in the league by DVOA. So that's putting you in negative field position, negative game script, all game long, all season long.
14:57What if that's a little bit better? Even like closer league average, now is the offense set up a little bit more in position to succeed?
15:05And now can Dak and these pass catchers take the next step forward?
15:09Again, you hit ceiling with passing. The run game is there now if they want to push up all the way into the top five.
15:16And I think that's more the ceiling for me is closer to five than to one probably.
15:21But I do think that this is, you know, all signs up for this group.
15:26Okay. So that was tier two. You had the Buffalo Bills, the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears rounding out your top five.
15:33Let's now move to tier three. And this one, you got four teams in this group.
15:38You've got the Kansas City Chiefs at six, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens.
15:42For me, the main thing I take away immediately, like you've got four AFC quarterbacks like stud kind of lifting those supporting casts, right?
15:50So let's start then with the Chiefs, because we talked about this in the skill position rankings that you're starting to see
15:56regression on that front as far as personnel goes.
15:59And I'm just not sure if I'm ready to get back on the horse and believe with the Chiefs.
16:04Maybe you are. But it has to be probably more than just Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
16:09It's a lot, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, to be honest.
16:12The more this year that I'm hoping for and why I am a little bit more confident than I expected.
16:18I like the way the line has come together.
16:21And I really think Kenneth Walker can be a stronger addition than is being imagined.
16:25Look, I'm team running backs don't matter normally. But this was actually a relatively good rushing attack by success rate only.
16:31You needed three yards. They could get you three or four yards.
16:35They just couldn't get you eight or 12 or 20.
16:38They got like the worst explosive run rate in the league.
16:41Kenneth Walker is not as good at getting you the easy stuff that's there, but he is good at hitting that hole
16:47and exploding through and finding those explosives. So can that kind of mesh together?
16:52Can the line and the offensive system open up the easy stuff?
16:55And can the talent there that they didn't have with Pacheco and all the other guys last year, can Walker's talent and explosion add a lot there?
17:03That's the hope. Look, the passing has fallen off.
17:06We know how much the receiving has fallen off.
17:08There's not great options there. So I'm not necessarily expecting this to be this high-flying 5,000-yard Mahomes season again.
17:14But it is Mahomes. It is Andy Reid. And I think there's always that upside, too.
17:18If those guys get the fastball back, this is still number one potential.
17:22And I have to trust the floor. Even as it's gone bad last three years, bad has meant eighth, eighth, and twelfth by DVOA.
17:29And twelfth is with Mahomes missing half of the time as well.
17:33Not half, but a chunk of time. So if the floor is eighth, really, then putting them at sixth, I can still feel pretty good about that.
17:41Okay. Chiefs, fine. But Bengals, I would call you a skeptic.
17:44That would be the word that I would use of the Bengals and how you're approaching them on offense, it seems like.
17:50And I guess really what I want to know is, at seven, how are things going to be different for Joe Burrow
17:57and the Bengals as you wear your Bengals t-shirt here?
18:00Had to wear the Bengals shirt today. I believe this is probably the highest I've ever ranked this team going into the year.
18:06And look, I'll be honest. I thought the numbers kind of won me over as I dug into this.
18:12I'm usually the Bengals skeptic. I'm usually like, I don't know.
18:15Everyone just pencils them in for top five. I don't know if they're sure top ten.
18:20But part of that is because the underlying stuff that we don't focus on as much has been so garbage to me over the years.
18:27The offensive line, the coaching staff, nothing to help elevate.
18:30And we've talked about it along the way of just what if the offensive line is just kind of almost average and maybe slightly bad, but not terrible.
18:38They've got all five guys back. What if the play calling gets a little bit better?
18:43And look, I actually think the play calling, the numbers, maybe not quite as bad as I have painted it over the years.
18:50They actually rose last year to the number six rushing attack by DVOA.
18:54And now you get the whole line back. You get Chase Brown back.
18:57He's an underrated weapon. And that continuity on the line, I think, can help the earlier start.
19:02We know how Cincinnati has started slow oftentimes. And then here's where I came back to it.
19:07Last four years with Burrow, DVOA offensively. Fourth, then 11th.
19:10Fifth, then 13th. But those two times outside the top ten where I often slot them, Burrow missed 10 games and missed eight games.
19:17That's half of the season both time. And so if you just kind of do the math on it, that's a top five offense.
19:24Top five four years in a row is just that you're getting the not Burrow offense for the other half of the
19:31time, which we know has been more successful than you think.
19:34But the numbers basically say, hey, listen, Brandon, the numbers are right there.
19:38Burrow and this offense is already top five. And if the run game is better and the line's a little better and
19:44the play calling is a little better, maybe I'm actually being too conservative here.
19:48So I ended up really wanting to push them up the ranks and wear the Bengals shirt and let's get in on this team this year.
19:56Well, the Chargers, like when we did these rankings pods last week, very high on the offensive line and the coaching.
20:02And the fact that you were so high on those positions, I think it was just shocked to see them at eight.
20:09I thought maybe they'd be in tier two, right?
20:11Like, so make the case Chargers at eight. Yeah, so I initially had these three we just talked about exactly flipped.
20:17I had Chargers at six and I moved them down a little bit.
20:21A lot of stuff I like here. I like Herbert.
20:24I love Mike McDaniel. We know the McDaniel hype.
20:27And obviously some of those extra pieces we added.
20:29And then the big question with the offensive line, but high in my rankings there as well.
20:34The problem is it's a lot of things that I like and I'm already pricing in pretty strongly.
20:40I realize I'm kind of already pricing them at their peak.
20:43And I do think they can get there. I think this is a top three potential maybe in November or December once
20:49the line can figure itself out and get healthier, once they can adjust, once McDaniel finds some answers.
20:55But McDaniel's only had four years with Miami, two top seven offenses, but bottom 10 the last two years.
21:00And look, he did some cool stuff, found some great running attacks, but still you want to not be bottom 10 if you're this offensive genius.
21:08Herbert, he's only had one top 10 DVU offense ever.
21:11His average finish is 14th. They were 21st last year.
21:14So all of that to get to, what do we have them here, eighth?
21:18That's a big jump already to get there. So I think on the balance of the season, a little caution maybe toward
21:24the back end of the top 10, even though I think that maybe toward the playoffs, as things kind of round into
21:31place, this slowly moves up the list. But it's a belief in Herbert McDaniel, the run game, offensive line.
21:36I still like all that, but I'm already pricing in my like of it all, and it still kind of puts them in this range.
21:43So I think I need to price in a little bit of caution because it's the Chargers.
21:48We all know the caution needs to be there.
21:51Well, we're recording this on Monday, August 24th. By the time you might listen to this, you might have heard of another
21:57offensive line injury that we're not aware of coming out of the Chargers camp.
22:02Okay. Speaking of a plummet here, the Ravens, because you mentioned that you had them number one overall coming into the season last year.
22:09So this feels like kind of a bet on Lamar bouncing back here, especially with their new O.C.
22:14Declan Doyle. Make the case for the Ravens. Yeah, this is kind of the opposite of what I just said, where I
22:20actually had them a little lower, like 12 or 13.
22:23And I kept kind of just looking team by team, slowly move them up a spot, move them up a spot.
22:29And they ended up at the last second moving up a tier because I was like, well, look, like you said, here's
22:36these stud AFC quarterbacks with their cast. That fits the Lamar Jackson thing, too.
22:40So we talked about how good this offense was two years ago.
22:43We know the ceiling and the floor is the rushing attack, which they were top five even last year, even as things didn't go well.
22:51And Lamar couldn't even run. So he wasn't even really part of that last year.
22:55They were still top five. And now Declan Doyle.
22:58The projection is Ben Johnson offense. So what does that mean?
23:01Great run game. I can't expect that to go anywhere with Derrick Henry and now Lamar's legs, hopefully back and usually less passing, but efficient passing.
23:09And we've seen when Lamar does the little bit less but more efficient thing, it can be really good.
23:14So wide, wide variance offense for me. We don't know with Declan Doyle yet what it looks like or even if Lamar is totally healthy.
23:21I have this like as high as the number three offense, as low as 20th, which is close to where they were last year.
23:28So in the end, I kind of like it.
23:31I kind of believe in this group and the results that we've seen.
23:35And I just kept slowly nudging them up the rankings.
23:38All right. Let's move to tier four. This one's called the sky's the limit, a.k.a.
23:42The ceiling is the roof. And at number 10, you have the Green Bay Packers, number 11, New England Patriots, number 12,
23:49Minnesota Vikings, number 13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Green Bay, you had them bottom five offensive lines.
23:53So the fact that you have them top 10, is this just directly related to your belief in Jordan Love?
23:59It's Jordan Love, but it's really it's Matt LaFleur, actually, that it's the floor here for him.
24:04He's never finished below 11th in offensive D-way any season.
24:07And with Jordan Love, top six every season, including top four passing.
24:11And it's like it's hard to ignore those numbers.
24:13Last year, that was kind of the notes I had on this team.
24:17And here we are again now. I do think this is probably the floor version of LaFleur because of the offensive line.
24:23And I don't love how run heavy his teams are, especially if you're going to be inefficient run heavy with a bad line.
24:30Then I really am not going to love that.
24:33So I had to keep them top 10 just because Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love, it's such a high floor for me.
24:39And man, saying LaFleur and floor a bunch of times in a row, don't do that.
24:44But I'm not super in on this team, but I can't be super out with those two around.
24:49OK, so top 10. You have the Patriots just outside the top 10 this time, even though they did finish third in DVOA last year.
24:57And I mean, they added some better skill guys.
24:59They added A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs. So what contributed to them dropping out of the top 10 for you?
25:05Yeah, it's not necessarily for me dropping out of the top 10, even though I know they were third last year.
25:11It's for me. How high could I get them from where I had them last year?
25:16And look, I was in on Drake May, but I think I still haven't cut up to the public perception of just
25:22how in you have to be on Drake May for this.
25:26Obviously, the receiving group is a huge boost this year.
25:28A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs. We talk about how we love how that totally remakes the weapons.
25:33I just had a hard time getting them all the way up.
25:37Like you basically I have to make Drake May something of equal to Josh Allen in my metrics in order to get
25:43the Patriots up into the top 10 and even pushing top five.
25:47And I'm just not there quite yet. And maybe he is that good.
25:50And I know he looked that good last year.
25:53But the rushing attack really still below average here last year.
25:56It was all Drake May knows all the downfield attack.
25:59And I know it should be even better theoretically, but things aren't as linear.
26:03So if I'm low on this one, it's because I just haven't quite got there all the way on Drake May.
26:09I had him, what, I think six or seventh in my QB rankings as well.
26:14That wasn't the case last year. He was number one.
26:17He was the best guy out there. So if he is that again, I'm just going to have to adjust and move them slowly up.
26:24All right. I'm going to combine the Vikings and Bucs here because it's kind of a combination here of what I wanted
26:31to ask with the Bucs that you had their offensive line, like top two, the Vikings, you know, their coaching staff or skill position in top five.
26:38They've seen top five ranks in different various shapes and forms of these rankings that we've done, but they're still outside the top 10 as an overall offense.
26:47So I guess really what it comes down to for these two teams, what do you think can push them into a top 10 rank?
26:54Yeah. Yeah. So the Vikings, we talked about a little skepticism from me on Kevin O'Connell, having never had a top 14
27:00offense yet in the NFL average DVOA rank is 20 seconds, almost bottom 10 there.
27:05I believe, I think this is going to be the best version yet.
27:09If we get a healthy Kyler Murray, if we get a healthy offensive line, obviously a big question mark there, but Frank
27:15Smith bringing him to coach the offensive line, I think is going to unlock a rushing attack that KOC has really never had there.
27:22So I think this is going to sound crazy, but if KOC calls plays the way everyone gives them credit for, and
27:28if the line is healthy and Kyler is relatively healthy, I think that even not even like an A plus outcome for
27:35those group, even like a B plus. I think this has like a Shanahan style offense, top three upside if the pieces
27:41are all there, but we need to see the pieces there with Tampa.
27:45It's really all that offensive line. So they were number seven and offense just two years ago.
27:50That was a Liam Cohen year. They've been like 18th and 20th around that.
27:54So is this an average offense or a pretty good one?
27:57I'm kind of splitting the difference here in the middle.
28:00I'm a little nervous on this one. This is about, I think I'm high man on the box from what I've seen
28:07around the internet, but it's the belief in that line.
28:10I think this can end up the number one offensive line.
28:13I kind of like Zach Robinson as a play caller.
28:16I'm sort of believing in the Baker. I believe here we are at 13th.
28:20I think that's right where I had Baker squeezing him into 13th.
28:23As you pointed out, just got one more name into the rankings.
28:27And so this is where I'm at with Tampa and it's a team I've really wanted to believe in.
28:33Football season is here, folks. And if you don't already have the Action Network app, now is the time.
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33:01DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, let's move to Tier 5.
33:05You've titled this tier. This would be extremely disappointing.
33:07And at number 14, you have the Detroit Lions and number 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
33:12Number 16, the Eagles. 17, Broncos. And 18, the Colts.
33:15Okay. Five teams in this tier. Very interesting group of teams as well.
33:19When we did rankings for like skill positions and just other phases, you had the Lions, you know, top five in some spots here.
33:26All the way down to 14th overall though. Yeah, the Lions, our team, I think is going to really surprise some people.
33:32The teams in this group are teams that we are expecting largely, we at large in the fandom and media expect these to be good offenses.
33:40And here we are basically calling them league average here.
33:43The Lions, I think, are the biggest surprise. I've seen them in a lot of top five offense rankings overall.
33:48I just can't quite get there with this group.
33:51To me, we've sort of talked about this throughout on all the podcasts so far.
33:55Everything is just continuing to move in the wrong direction.
33:58No Ben Johnson anymore. The direction offensively has not been quite the same.
34:02The run game has slowly dropped a little bit.
34:05Barely top 10 last year. And now David Montgomery is gone.
34:08The offensive line, we talked about my concerns there.
34:11Back down to about the same spot. League average there, especially while Cade Mays, the new center, is out.
34:16And Panay Sewell is adjusting to the left side.
34:19You get a rookie on the right side. And all that just adds up to, I think, an ecosystem where the interior line isn't as strong.
34:26And now Jared Goff is maybe struggling. And we know he has not been good.
34:31Most aren't. But especially Goff under interior pressure. And then the whole setup is run heavy.
34:36And that normally works for them. But if the run game isn't quite as reliable or strong, and now you need to
34:42pass more, and you don't want to be passing more when it's Goff in a must-pass scenario, there are just a lot of yellow flags here.
34:50There are no red flags. There's a lot of things to like.
34:53But I just feel like I need to keep tilting in the direction where this is going.
34:58And I don't want to fight upstream. And it seems like we kind of are like, oh, you know what?
35:04The Lions, their ratings are pretty good last year.
35:07Everything is fine. I don't think everything is fine.
35:09I think everything is slowly slipping in that Detroit team.
35:12Yeah, the window seems to be closing much faster on Detroit than we had anticipated, I think.
35:17And part of that, I think, is the offensive line regression.
35:20Jacksonville, though, a bit of a surprise here at 15.
35:23I thought maybe they might crack top 10 for you, just given how your affinity for like Liam Cohen and that coaching
35:30staff, and then even just the fact that you had Trevor Lawrence.
35:33If my memory serves, you had him 11th overall for quarterbacks.
35:36So how does that add up for you to be at 15th?
35:40Yeah, I ended up kind of thinking about this team the way I described the Bengals from the last few years, because
35:46it's the limitations of the offensive line here. As a bottom offensive line, that just hurts so much of the underlying stuff.
35:53It nukes the run game that Cohen has not found a good run game here, and it just limits your overall upside.
35:59And what's interesting, as much as we love Liam Cohen, look, I had that staff so high, tier two in the coaching
36:06staff rankings, and it's partly the defensive guys and special teams even as well.
36:10But I gave Cohen a lot of credit. They finished 14th on offense last year.
36:14If you look at the three years before Cohen got there with Trevor Lawrence, they finished an average of 14th.
36:20They didn't go up at all last year. They did the same thing.
36:24They stayed the course. They did go up late in the season, but they play a lot of weak defenses late in the season.
36:31So I do think this, again, with Detroit, we're trickling the wrong direction.
36:35I think we're moving the right direction here, but we need to see more offensive line and we need to see, can Cohen reach the box heights?
36:43Remember, that's the team he got up to number seven.
36:45He didn't quite do that yet with this Jacksonville offense.
36:48Can he get there? I think they're moving that direction, but not quite there yet.
36:53Okay, let's move to the segment that we seem to do in every show where we try to piss off the Eagles fans.
37:0016th for the Eagles overall on offense. Basically, middle of the pack.
37:03And without me putting words in your mouth, is that what you're saying?
37:07That this offense is middle of the pack? I think I am.
37:10You can put the words in my mouth. We know it's not hard to get on the Eagles fans bad side.
37:17I seem to be quite good at it. But I think AJ Brown is very obviously a huge loss here.
37:22I know we like some of the receivers they brought in, but no AJ is just going to be, has to be factored in.
37:29Everything kind of filters down there. I think the offensive line we talked about, even if it's top five, not number one, that's still a drop there.
37:37The run game has really slowly slipped away. Here's the run DV away over the last five years under Hertz.
37:43Number one, then third, then fifth, then sixth. Still good.
37:46Wrong direction. Then 24th last year. Huge drop off.
37:49Saquon wasn't getting those huge explosives. And look, those will probably come back a little bit there.
37:54But I think it's fascinating because I think that that mirrors Jalen Hurts as a runner where he's just not running that much anymore.
38:01He's not adding the value that he once did there.
38:04And as a passer, he's just not adding that much value.
38:07If I'm being honest, passing offense the last three years.
38:10And let's remember with AJ Brown, with Devante Smith, they've been 12th, 14th, just kind of slightly above average.
38:15And they're not even passing that much. So I can't get there with Jalen Hurts.
38:20I don't love Sean Mannion's fit with his team.
38:22They want to attack the middle of the field.
38:25Jalen Hurts, I got to see it. I got to see you do the thing.
38:29For all the things we looked at with Jalen Hurts, they basically had the best line in the league for his whole five years there.
38:37They've had great weapons most of the time. Saquon and AJ and Devante, you know that in five years with Jalen Hurts,
38:43the Eagles have one top nine offense ever. They have averaged 11th.
38:47They average outside the top 10 with probably the best quarterback setup in the league.
38:51Sorry, Jalen Hurts is not that guy. And until he shows he is for more than one game in the playoffs for
38:57how about 18 in the regular season again? Then I have to cap the ceiling here.
39:02Oh man, the Eagles fans are going to be my DMs after this.
39:06Here we go. Yeah, they're putting that clip on social.
39:09I already feel it. All right. Denver. A bit lower than I thought you would have them, especially when we talked about
39:15the skill positions and you weighing wide receivers so heavily and talking about the incoming of Jalen Waddle and how that will affect this offense.
39:23What's happening here? Because it seems like this might just be a case of we already kind of know what we're getting.
39:29Is that why we have them here around 17?
39:32Yeah, I think that that's mostly that case. This is about where they've been finishing the last few years with Sean Payton.
39:38And look, they've raised the floor to make them kind of be in this group.
39:43It's pretty good to be in a group with Detroit, with Philadelphia.
39:46That's pretty good for what the personnel is in Denver.
39:49And I think Waddle raises the ceiling. The question mark is Davis Webb actually calling plays now.
39:54And it's possible that Waddle raising the ceiling and look, I thought the Sean Payton offense was a bit ceiling cap the
40:00last couple of years because of what they're doing.
40:03Maybe Davis Webb raises the ceiling to something above that.
40:06I think that's totally possible, but he's also not Sean Payton.
40:09So he also has to lower the floor of where that could go in the other direction.
40:14And I don't really know, to be honest. So this is one where I'm sticking them in the middle for now.
40:20And I'm expecting them to maybe move five points in either direction.
40:24I just don't know which direction until we see it a little bit.
40:28Yeah, the clock's ticking on Davis Webb because Sean Payton will just take that role back.
40:32Yeah, he'll just do the thing. Yeah. Which does limit the floor a little bit, to be fair.
40:38You know, they can only fall so far. Like we saw with the Lions last year, it wasn't working with John Morton.
40:44So they're just like, all right, Dan Campbell, do the thing again.
40:48So that could happen here. And it's a good point.
40:50So I haven't had them any lower because, you know, we already know how good they can be.
40:56And it should be easy, safe-ish floor and some room for ceiling.
40:59Well, a team that we did see it working for at least the first two months of the season was the Indianapolis Colts.
41:06Because they were putting up pretty decent numbers, especially with Daniel Jones.
41:09But now we're coming back with Daniel Jones, torn Achilles.
41:12So you're not buying it like that that can get back to that kind of ceiling?
41:17Yeah, I was surprised how high they were in the numbers.
41:20They still finished as the fifth best offense last season, even though we basically only had good offense for half of the year.
41:27That's how good they were for that half of the year.
41:30They were still top seven rush and passing to end the season.
41:34I should be higher on them, to be honest.
41:36The Steichen, I love. The offensive line, I love.
41:39The run game is really good. It's just Daniel Jones.
41:42I just can't do with Daniel Jones as the player we've known over the years, but particularly off the Achilles injury.
41:48And I know we're all hearing all the buzz in training camp, but we're also hearing we're not going to get to
41:55see him until he plays in week one. And look, if he goes out and plays two or three good games to
42:01start the year and they're right back to being that top offense, I'm going to have been wrong on this.
42:07I'll have to adjust in a big way. But I just we've seen Kirk Cousins.
42:11We've seen Aaron Rodgers. Older guys, I know. But we've seen recently quarterbacks off Achilles.
42:16And I know it's like, oh, Achilles is just like a spray naquel these days.
42:20Shake it off and get back out there. I just can't quite do it with Daniel Jones.
42:25So I'm going to be skeptical for now. But it's very clear that the upside is there.
42:30Yeah, Achilles and torn ACL. That used to be like micro fracture surgery, like where you just don't come back from it now.
42:37Anybody can come back from those surgeries. OK, let's move to tier six.
42:41This tier is called squint. And you could maybe see a competent offense at 19.
42:45You have the Washington Commanders, number 20, the Raiders, number 21, the Seahawks and number 22, the Saints.
42:50I feel like I got to defend the Seahawks here because there's been a couple of pods that we've done now.
42:56And I mean, they're just coming off of a Super Bowl win where I'm seeing them in the bottom 10 in some phases of offense.
43:04What's the case here? Why were you so down overall on this unit?
43:07Yeah, and they were top 10. They finished 10th last year with Kubiak.
43:11But Kubiak is not there anymore. And that really is the whole thing for me, as we'll get to in a couple
43:18other teams in this tier, where I thought Kubiak's offense already faded late in the season.
43:22Even early, they were looking so good, that efficient deep ball JSN putting up huge numbers.
43:27And it started to disappear. And there wasn't a lot of eating vegetables left underneath that.
43:32There wasn't a lot of substance underneath that. And now, if I think, look, the defense has to be a little worse
43:38than last year, even though I think it'll be great, that means a worse game script than last year.
43:44Probably we're going to get a worse rushing attack because Kenneth Walker is gone.
43:48And Charbonnet, we don't know when he'll play. So we basically have a rookie there.
43:52All that is, again, tilting things in the wrong direction.
43:55And you take away Kubiak. You take away the floor.
43:58What made the offensive line go from what was supposed to be bottom five last year to this quality, above-average sort of unit?
44:05Okay, well, how about now? How about after Kubiak?
44:07Because we've seen that in other places. It hasn't gone as well.
44:11We don't know much about Fleury, the new play caller.
44:14There are a lot of reasons for me to point down on this team than Arrow pointing up.
44:19And so I'm surprised to have them this low.
44:22They don't feel like they belong in this group.
44:24But if you said top 10 or bottom 10, you can't go middle.
44:28I have to go bottom 10 because I just don't see a strong top 10 case.
44:33Okay. But these other three teams, like they kind of, I don't know, I probably would have had the Seahawks at the
44:39first of this tier or maybe even a tier above.
44:42But let's just talk about these four teams as a group.
44:45Because in your article that you published on Action Network, you had said these four offenses.
44:50If things go well, like they could be in the top half of the league.
44:55And so I guess we already talked about the Seahawks.
44:57Make the case for Commanders, Raiders, Saints. Like what you like about these three offenses and maybe even why you rank them in that order.
45:05Because again, I just, I think the Seahawks, if I had to, I would probably put them first in this tier.
45:11And that's probably the only difference. Yeah. So this maybe is just the Clint Kubiak tier as it turns out, because we're
45:17going to talk about them for two of these three teams.
45:21The Raiders are the other side of the Kubiak coin.
45:24They get him this year. So what I'm taking away as the floor raiser gone from Seattle, I'm adding in to the
45:30Vegas side of things where the offensive line is rated pretty low.
45:34But Colton Miller is a stud. They go out and get Tyler Linderbaum.
45:37That line could be good if you get those guys and Kubiak raising the floor.
45:42If you're a fancy football player, if you were to draft on Sunday, you had a whirlwind of a day.
45:48Ashton Gentry gets this injury early in the day.
45:50And it's like, oh no, he's out for the season.
45:53What's this going to be terrible? And then like end of the night, it's like, oh yeah, he had a sprained ankle.
46:00It's fine, everybody. Don't worry about it. So hopefully you got him for cheap in your draft.
46:05Mike Washington's look good. He's suddenly going like second round yesterday in drafts.
46:08Now you get both of them because Gentry is fine.
46:11And I think you get this sort of stable run game.
46:14And now you get either Cook, Kirk, Cousins, or eventually Mendoza.
46:18And picture Brock Bowers as the wide receiver one.
46:20They don't really have a receiver, but he's basically a receiver and a pretty good one.
46:25So you get the offense built around, run the football, play action to Bowers over the middle.
46:30Then you get Jack Bash. You get some of the other guys catching stuff underneath, some long stuff.
46:35You can sort of see the vision. You can see everything kind of coming together there.
46:40And I think probably later this year or next year is the real vision there.
46:44But I just, I can see the upside. They're best out of this group.
46:48The Saints, they're a Kubiak team also. They were the team that Kubiak two years ago.
46:53And we saw last year, the rushing attack drop from top half of the league to 30th when he left.
46:59Now look, last year, we liked a lot of things about the Saints.
47:03The numbers don't really buy it. The numbers share some of the skepticism I've had where they actually fell from 23rd to 27th and offense last year.
47:1127th, as much as we've talked about all the upside on the guys here.
47:15And I think a lot of that is factoring in that it was a lot against bad defenses late.
47:20So we know about the receivers, the offensive line, all the youth upside there.
47:24Those same dudes are all the injury risk as well.
47:27So a bit of skepticism for them. Commander's not a whole lot known here.
47:31We don't love losing Laramie Tunsil. So that might just sort of doom this ranking already.
47:36But it's Jane Daniels. It's still Jane Daniels who clearly has like top five to seven potential, who did it already as a rookie.
47:43And we like David Blau as an upside there.
47:46We don't really know. But if I had to pick one of the teams, I'm going to pick the quarterback and the play caller.
47:53So I like Kubiak, the play caller, the best.
47:55This is the Kubiak grouping. But I like Blau and I'll bet on Jane Daniels.
48:00Hard for me to get there on the Saints.
48:02There's just too many things that can go wrong for them.
48:06Well, the things that are probably going to go wrong are for these next 10 teams because we're in the bottom 10 now of offenses.
48:13And it's just going to get gross as we keep going.
48:16This is tier seven. You called definitely not good, but shouldn't be terrible.
48:20And the way I interpret that is, first off, the teams that are in this tier is the Houston Texans, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Arizona Cardinals.
48:28The way I interpret this tier name is that they're not going to be top five offenses by any time soon.
48:34But you're not expecting them to completely bottom out either.
48:37Yeah, that's exactly it. It's just kind of like something akin to below average.
48:41And look, so let's do Steelers first because how many average Steelers have we had?
48:46Like every ranking, average, average, average. What's not average is the quarterback and the play caller.
48:50Well, that's Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. So that's why you're not average Steelers.
48:54You're below average. Do the math on how I factored in the quarterback and the play calling.
48:59Arizona, bottom 10 offensive line, no real quarterback. Different LaFleur, Mike LaFleur there.
49:03Don't know if we quite trust that yet. It did not go well when he called play for the Jets.
49:09So have to be a little skeptical there. And then actually, I might be low on the Texans here because CJ Stroud,
49:15three years in the NFL, has actually finished 20th on average on offense.
49:19That's not terrible. I don't think we think of the Texans as 20th.
49:23I think we think of them as like 28th.
49:26Like close your eyes. It's awful. Look away like it was in the playoffs.
49:30They were 19th last year, including they were 19th running the football last year.
49:34The thing that I and many others are like, they can't run the ball at all.
49:38The line stinks. There's nothing there. So weirdly enough, FTN, who actually puts out the DVOA rankings, they project the Texans in their top 10.
49:46I think even like closer to top five offensively this year.
49:49If you like that, you should be getting the Super Bowl ticket right now for that team because we know how good the defense will be.
49:57I can't see it. I can't get there anywhere close in my matrix.
50:00All my numbers are everything. I don't trust the O-line at all, even though I'm kind of into it.
50:06It's just Nico Collins among weapons. I can't quite get there, but this is still fringe bottom 10.
50:11And I think mine, the numbers from DVOA suggest they should really even be up a handful of spots from here.
50:17But I don't know. Maybe Houston is more bad than terrible.
50:21And I have a hard time parsing between those two things.
50:24Okay, so these three teams, you think they're not going to bottom out.
50:28That's the Texans, Steelers, and Cardinals. But these next four teams, it seems pretty likely.
50:32We're at 26. We have the Falcons, number 27, the Giants, number 28, the Panthers, and number 29, the Jets.
50:38I got one small critique here because if you listen to our skill position rankings, you had the Cardinals and Falcons in the top 10.
50:45I didn't necessarily agree with those rankings, but I was like, okay, these are your rankings.
50:50You do your thing. But then I look at this overall ranking and I'm like 25th and 26th.
50:55I'm like, okay, that seems maybe a little more accurate.
50:58But again, make the case of why we're at bottom five or close to bottom five on this side, but yet still
51:05have the skill position players to be in the top 10.
51:08Yeah, because we're playing football, not fantasy football. And it's more than just the skill players there.
51:13And because somebody's got to play quarterback and somebody has to call plays and block.
51:17And I don't love most of that stuff with these teams.
51:20With the Falcons, I kind of like the blocking too.
51:23Remember, I had them near top 10 offensive line.
51:26So I really feel like this should be higher.
51:29What this is reflecting is I don't really believe in Stefanski and Tommy Reese as the offense.
51:34I thought maybe that would bring a floor there.
51:36But I looked into it and they were bottom five offense the last three years in a row with Cleveland.
51:42Look, nothing to work with there. But what are you working with in Atlanta?
51:46You got either Tua or Michael Penix. And at the end of the day, even if I paint the optimistic view of
51:53one of those guys playing quarterback, it's still like a below average, no ceiling quarterback.
51:57And so even the good Falcons scenario quarterback wise, I just can't get to any realistic ceiling with this group because it's hard to imagine.
52:04And then the bad is really bad because you might not have an NFL quarterback on the roster.
52:10I don't know if Penix is a quarterback anyway, but he's not ready.
52:13And Tua is like, can't throw from me to you across the screen right now.
52:18So I don't know what's supposed to be left there.
52:21All right. Let's stick with the two teams in New York, both the Giants and the Jets.
52:26I think I'm a little more optimistic on the Giants side on offense than the Jets.
52:30But what could make the bottom fall out on both of these offenses?
52:34Yeah, I want to be more optimistic on the Giants.
52:37We're going to do worst to first later this week, and they're definitely in my running for that sort of team.
52:43The optimism there is there's four guys that have got to stay healthy.
52:47It's Jackson Dart, Cam Scadabell, Malik Neighbors, Andrew Thomas.
52:50If they have a good season, if they push 8, 9, 10 wins and kind of stay in the mix of things,
52:56it's because those four guys stayed healthy. In particular, Neighbors and Thomas really have to stay healthy.
53:01I actually think if Dart were to get hurt, I'm kind of intrigued by Jameis Winston, like the perfect YOLO guy in this offensive, being honest.
53:09I don't necessarily hate that. But underneath all that is Matt Nagy.
53:12We know how we don't like Matt Nagy and what he does to offenses.
53:16No. Can he provide a floor? Can the floor raise for this team?
53:20What I like about Dart and Jameis is they're not vegetable guys.
53:24They're home run hitters. And with this offense, it's not going to be a good play in and play out sort of offense.
53:30But can they hit some big plays? Can they go neighbors down the sideline?
53:34Can Scadabell get some big plays in there? I like the upside there.
53:38But take away one or two of those pieces, and the Jenga starts to shake and tumble really quickly.
53:44And we know how injury prone all four of those guys have been.
53:48With the Jets, actually surprised me. 20th and 21st offense the last two years.
53:52Not as bad as I would have thought that they were.
53:55A lot of young talent up and down the roster, except at quarterback where you were rightfully skeptical of my Geno Smith ranking.
54:02I am being rightfully skeptical of my Geno Smith ranking here because the only way it works for the Jets is two
54:08big things have to go at least sort of right.
54:11Geno has to be at least sort of okay.
54:14And Frank Reich has to be at least sort of okay.
54:17And I can very easily see a world where neither one of those guys, or even if even one of them is
54:23terrible, then I think the whole thing turns into a pumpkin and that's it.
54:27And last one, Panthers. It's just the offensive line is so rough right now.
54:31And I'm a little bit lower on Dave Canales after digging into.
54:35He's actually never had an offense better than 20th in the three years.
54:39Even what got him the job from Tampa was 20th as a huge drop from Liam Cohen.
54:44So the ranking spot here is kind of the Bryce Young ranking, where it's like just good enough to not be awful.
54:50And that's about it. And it's just like this.
54:53You got a little bit of floor and no ceiling, and that's where we're stuck here.
54:58Yeah, it's hard to be optimistic with the Panthers right now.
55:01I think you have them bottom five ranked in everything that we've done except for coaching so far.
55:06So now bottom three teams. This is our final tier, and there is no optimism in sight at this stage.
55:12It is the Tennessee Titans, the Miami Dolphins, and the Cleveland Browns.
55:15Not surprised. They've been bottom five in some way, shape, or form in every one of our rankings.
55:21We did an exercise at the start with the Rams where I was like, why wouldn't they finish number one?
55:27What about these bottom three teams? Why aren't these bottom three teams?
55:30Why won't they finish at the bottom? I think if you want to squint and find a little bit of hope, with
55:36the Titans, it's got to just be Cam Ward, right?
55:39Like, we know the tools. We know you can pass the eye test, Cam Ward.
55:44Can you do it for a few plays in a row?
55:47Can you put together a drive? Can you give us a whole half of football?
55:51I don't know, man. I've been watching preseason football.
55:54I don't feel great about the belief in Cam Ward right now.
55:58I don't see the leap coming there. But if Carnell tight at those better receivers, if that passing game can find a
56:04leap, maybe that's where they outperform a little bit.
56:07But with the Dolphins, I think it's the run game.
56:10It's Devon Achan and Malik Willis. We know he's going to be a good runner.
56:14I don't know if he's a passer. I don't know if he's a quarterback, frankly.
56:18But we know he can run. And Bobby Sloick, offensively, has been good starting with the run game.
56:24And so maybe they can just get a floor with the run game there.
56:28And with Cleveland, look, if you're dead last in the quarterback rankings and apparently starting Deshaun Watson, what are you doing, Cleveland?
56:34And you're dead last in the offensive line rankings.
56:37You're dead in a rival. I don't know what you're supposed to do with that.
56:41But the upside belief for Cleveland, and I do believe it a little bit, a lot of fun young weapons, right?
56:47We like Casey Concepcion. We like Denzel Boston. And Todd Munkin has found ways to make things work.
56:53So what if we could just snap the ball and get it out real quick to one of the weapons and let
56:59them be the offense and just try to minimize the quarterback and the blocking as much as we can?
57:05Maybe you'll find something there. But hard for me to get any of these teams past the bottom five to seven.
57:11Yeah. As soon as I saw that they announced Deshaun Watson as the week one starter, I was like, they cannot be any higher than 32.
57:18They have to be last with Deshaun Watson there as quarterback.
57:22All right. Let's talk about the top 10 again.
57:24So at the top 10, number one, you have the Rams, two Bills, number three 49ers, number four Cowboys, number five Chicago Bears.
57:31Followed by that, you have the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers rounding out that top 10.
57:38Now I made a joke at the top that a lot of the time these people's top 10 rankings, it kind of
57:45just feels like you took the Super Bowl odds and just copied it over.
57:49Obviously, it just seems like from these rankings, like offense wins the day.
57:53Yeah, it's really crazy. So I looked up and last year in DVOA, the top 21 teams, the top 21 all won
57:59eight or more games except the Chiefs and the Bengals.
58:02And we know the Bengals and the Chiefs had injuries to the quarterback, still finished that high anyway, because they were that good for parts of the year.
58:10So that's how good it was that way. The other side leaves 11 teams left, one playoff team outside of that group.
58:17And that was the eight and nine division winning Panthers, because somebody had to win the division.
58:22So it really is that simple. You really do need offense.
58:25And that's why you're right. Like as you look at the rankings, you might be low on the Bears.
58:30I thought it was gonna be low on the Bears, but if they're really a top five offense, it's hard to be
58:37that low on a team that's that good offensively.
58:39Right. Okay. So then the trend that I immediately see, if you look at that top five, you've got Rams, Niners, Cowboys, Bears.
58:46What does that mean for the rest of the NFC?
58:49If four of the top five offenses are coming out of the NFC conference?
58:53Yeah, it means you better have some firepower, man.
58:56You better find some offense to match up with those teams, or you better have a great defense.
59:01So back to our Seattle longstanding conversation here. Not great that you're number 21 offensively when there it is in the division,
59:07two of the top three offenses right there for you.
59:10But if you're not going to have the offense, you better have the Mike McDonald defense.
59:15You better have the defensive weapon to counteract some of these offenses.
59:19If you don't have either one of those, it's not going to be a great season probably for you in the NFC.
59:25And the AFC is the opposite. They're the bottom four offenses.
59:28I don't know that we make too much of that.
59:31Like no one has a lot of hope for the Jets, Titans, Dolphins, and Browns.
59:36No one needed to tell you that, but over half of the AFC finished between 6th and 20th.
59:41Pretty packed in tight there. And a lot of ones where you can like argue them up a couple spots or down.
59:47So to me, that tells me what stands out here.
59:50Is your defense going to help you stand out?
59:53Is your coaching giving you an edge? Or if that young quarterback hits, could you move up a little bit and surprise?
59:59I mean, you know, we can easy mobility in the rankings when they're all that close together.
60:04I don't want to step too much on your divisional betting, like how you approach it from a future standpoint.
60:10But there's some clusters here in these rankings that I think might relate to that.
60:15Like I wanted to talk like, for example, you have the NFC North.
60:18You've got all in between 5 and 14. AFC West, all between 6 and 20.
60:23So briefly, like how do you kind of approach that as a futures bettor, especially from a division winner?
60:28Yeah, I think you approach that as opportunity. When everything is clustered together and we know how high variance football is, it's
60:35an oblong ball and the ball bounces funny. To me, that smells like long shots.
60:39It doesn't mean the long shot's going to win.
60:42But when it's that close together, that means variance wins the day.
60:45And that means weird things can happen even midway through the season where things can kind of bounce back their direction.
60:51So like we just said, it could be that you look at the other stuff besides offense, the defense, the coaching, some of those things.
60:59Or it might just be that the long shot kind of wins out with a little bit of variance here.
61:05And so you look for not the favorite, probably.
61:07You're probably not wanting to invest there. But take the longer numbers.
61:11Who's a little bit further down the list that might actually surprise?
61:14So I want our listeners, if they're listening today, to go check out the article on ActionNetwork.com for your offensive rankings.
61:20Because in the article, you mentioned two teams in particular.
61:23And I wanted to bring this up because I had to.
61:27I'm wearing the Cowboys shirt. And basically just that we should feel good about the direction that these two teams are going.
61:33And that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys.
61:36So what should we feel good about? Yeah, you mentioned division betting.
61:40These are, by my metrics, the best offense in their divisions, both by a pretty sizable margin.
61:45Tampa Bay, I have them at 13th. We talked about them kind of in that cusp of pushing into top 10.
61:51Everyone else is fringe bottom 10. So that is a pretty big gap from the top to the rest of the division there.
61:58And then I know you love your Cowboys. Number four offensively.
62:01And everyone else is league average or worse. Remember, we had the Eagles at average.
62:05And everything else is below that. So that, to me, is the biggest division gap at the top.
62:10If you're looking for who stands out and who wins its offenses, you have to feel pretty good about Tampa Bay and Dallas.
62:17All right. Feeling good about the Buccaneers and the Cowboys.
62:20Before we get out of here, it's time for our segment presented by DraftKings.
62:24Now, Brandon, we just got done talking about the Cowboys and the Bucs.
62:28Give us a play you would like to go along with what we've discussed today.
62:32Yeah, I think it's just as we were just talking about with the Dallas Cowboys, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
62:38So I think you can go with both of those.
62:41How about Dallas Cowboys? Maybe to win the NFC East division.
62:44They've got that big gap way ahead of the rest of the crowd or over the nine and a half on the win total as well.
62:52And then Tampa, maybe some division for them as well.
62:55We love to bet the NFC South, right? Buccaneers, NFC South ticket.
62:58Or if you just think, how about being better than a 500 team over the eight and a half on the win total?
63:05You can go over that as well, if you like.
63:08Well, as a Cowboys fan, you know I'm going to love to hear that, right?
63:12And to all our other Cowboys fans that are listening in the great state of Texas or our Bucs fans in Florida,
63:19if you want to join Brandon on these, remember that the DraftKings Sports app is now available in all 50 states.
63:25So go download it today. All right, that'll do it for us here on the Action Network podcast doing offensive rankings.
63:31I want to thank you for tuning in today.
63:34Don't forget to leave us that five-star rating and review wherever you listen to the podcast and download the free award-winning Action Network app.
63:41You can save $20 off of an annual pro account by using code POD20 at actionnetwork.com slash pro.
63:46So for Brandon Anderson, I'm Gilles Gallant. Thank you again for listening to the Action Network podcast.
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