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2026 NFL Rankings | Offenses

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 25, 2026
Published
Tue, August 25, 2026
31
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Jalen HurtsJoe BurrowKenneth Walker IIIBaker MayfieldBrock BowersBrock PurdyC.J. StroudCaleb WilliamsChase BrownChristian McCaffreyColston LovelandD.J. MooreDak PrescottDaniel Jones
Player analysis

Player insights

31

Baker Mayfield

NegativeProjection27:45

Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare ranks the Buccaneers 13th, expressing a belief in Baker Mayfield and play-caller Zach Robinson. While they are high on the offensive line's potential, they are splitting the difference between the team's past performance and their projected upside.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveUsage46:20

Brock Bowers is effectively the Raiders' WR1. The offense is built around running the football and utilizing Bowers for play-action passes over the middle, making him a central piece of the team's vision.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection11:37

Brandon Anderson notes that a healthy Brock Purdy in Kyle Shanahan's system has consistently produced a top-two offense by DVOA. Despite concerns about offensive line and weapon injuries, Purdy's growth has offset the slight decline in the rushing attack.

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C.J. Stroud

NegativeProjection49:15

CJ Stroud has averaged a 20th-ranked offense over his first three years. While some projections like FTN suggest a top-10 finish, the source remains skeptical due to concerns about the offensive line and lack of weapons beyond Nico Collins.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveBreakout12:58

Brandon Anderson expects growth from Caleb Williams in his second year under Ben Johnson, noting improvements in pocket management and the potential for the offense to expand its intermediate passing game.

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Chase Brown

PositiveUsage18:57

Brandon Anderson identifies Chase Brown as an underrated weapon for the Bengals, noting his role in an offense that improved to the number six rushing attack by DVOA last year.

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Christian McCaffrey

NegativeUsage11:30

Brandon Anderson observes that Christian McCaffrey's efficiency as a runner slipped last year, though this was offset by the overall growth of the 49ers' passing offense.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveBreakout13:35

Brandon Anderson highlights Colston Loveland as a pass-catching weapon for the Bears who could contribute to the offense's growth if he takes a leap this season.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeRole10:13

Brandon Anderson views D.J. Moore as a good fit for the Bills' offense, though he clarifies that he does not consider Moore a true star or number one receiver for them.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection14:09

Brandon Anderson remains high on Dak Prescott, noting he has led top-10 DVOA offenses in six of his seven healthy seasons. Anderson believes the Cowboys' offense has a ceiling in the top five, especially if the run game continues to improve under Clayton Adams.

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Daniel Jones

NegativeInjury41:06

Despite the Colts finishing as the fifth-best offense last season, skepticism remains regarding Daniel Jones due to his torn Achilles. The source is wary of his ability to return to form, noting that while the upside is clear, the injury history and past performance make him a risky bet for the upcoming season.

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Deshaun Watson

NegativeBust57:18

The Browns are ranked at the bottom of the league, with the source stating they cannot be ranked higher than 32nd as long as Deshaun Watson is the starting quarterback.

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Drake Maye

NegativeProjection24:57

Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare ranks the Patriots just outside the top 10, noting that while they added weapons like A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs, they are not yet fully sold on Drake Maye as an elite metric-shifter comparable to Josh Allen. Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare admits they may need to adjust if Maye performs at the high level seen last year.

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Jalen Hurts

NegativeProjection37:00

The Eagles are ranked 16th, with Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare criticizing Jalen Hurts' declining value as a runner and his performance as a passer. Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare notes that despite having elite weapons and a strong offensive line, the team has only produced one top-nine offense in five years, leading to a capped ceiling expectation.

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NegativeProjection38:07

Despite having elite weapons like Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, and DeVonta Smith, the Eagles have only produced one top-nine offense in five years under Jalen Hurts, averaging 11th overall. The source argues Hurts is not an elite quarterback, capping the team's offensive ceiling until he proves otherwise over a full regular season.

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James Cook

PositiveUsage10:01

James Cook is credited as a central figure in the Bills' power run game, which has been a major factor in the team's offensive success and consistency.

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Jared Goff

NegativeProjection34:12

The Lions are ranked 14th, with Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare noting that the offense is trending in the wrong direction. Concerns include the loss of Ben Johnson, offensive line regression, and Jared Goff's struggles under interior pressure. Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare warns that the team is becoming too run-heavy and lacks the reliability of previous seasons.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveBreakout39:23

The addition of Jalen Waddle to the Denver offense is expected to raise the unit's ceiling, though the overall offensive outlook remains uncertain due to the transition to Davis Webb as the play-caller.

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Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection17:44

Brandon Anderson is higher on the Bengals than usual, noting that Burrow has led top-five offenses when healthy. With the offensive line returning all five starters and an improved run game, Anderson believes the offense could be even better than previous projections.

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PositiveProjection19:17

The source notes that the Bengals offense has been a top-five unit for four years running, even when Burrow is sidelined for half the season. With potential improvements in the run game, offensive line, and play-calling, Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare suggests they may have been too conservative with their initial rankings and are now bullish on the team.

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Jordan Love

PositiveProjection23:59

The Packers are ranked in the top 10 primarily due to the high floor provided by Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. Love has consistently delivered top-six offensive DVOA and top-four passing metrics, making it difficult for Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare to rank them lower despite concerns about the offensive line.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection9:09

Brandon Anderson ranks the Bills second, noting that while Allen's efficiency dipped to 10th in passing DVOA last year, he remains a reliable floor-raiser. The offense is built around his skill set, though Anderson worries that the run-heavy play calling under Joe Brady may artificially cap his ceiling.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeProjection20:21

Despite liking Herbert and the coaching staff, Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare ranks the Chargers 8th overall, noting that Herbert has only produced one top-10 DVOA offense in his career with an average finish of 14th. Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare is pricing in caution due to historical performance and potential offensive line health concerns.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage16:25

Brandon Anderson believes Kenneth Walker could be a strong addition to the Chiefs, providing the explosive run ability that the team lacked last season, even if he isn't as efficient at the 'easy' short-yardage gains.

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NegativeDepth Chart43:48

The Seahawks' rushing attack is projected to decline because Kenneth Walker is no longer on the team, leaving the backfield situation uncertain with Charbonnet and a rookie.

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Kyler Murray

PositiveProjection26:59

Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare suggests the Vikings could have top-three upside if Kyler Murray and the offensive line remain healthy. They believe the addition of Frank Smith to coach the offensive line will unlock a rushing attack that Kevin O'Connell has previously lacked.

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Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection10:18

Brandon Anderson notes that while the Rams offense is ranked first, history suggests it is difficult to repeat as a top-tier unit. Stafford has led the Rams to top-10 DVOA finishes in four of five seasons, but only once reached the top spot, with other finishes including 8th, 9th, and 10th.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection16:18

Despite concerns about the Chiefs' receiving corps, Brandon Anderson maintains confidence in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, noting that even in 'bad' years, the offense has finished 8th, 8th, and 12th in DVOA. He believes the addition of Kenneth Walker could provide the explosive run element the team lacked.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveProjection6:21

Brandon Anderson highlights Puka Nacua as a key component of the Rams' top-ranked offense, alongside Devante Adams, Kyren Williams, and Blake Corum.

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Rome Odunze

PositiveBreakout13:35

Brandon Anderson identifies Rome Odunze as a key pass-catching weapon for the Bears who could take a significant leap in production this season.

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Trevor Lawrence

NegativeProjection35:33

The Jaguars are ranked 15th due to offensive line limitations that hinder the run game and overall upside. Despite Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare's affinity for the coaching staff, they note that the offense has not improved under Liam Cohen compared to the three years prior to his arrival.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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2:08The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action, boss.
2:11Ready? Hey! All right, here we go. From the tent, throwing in zone.
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2:29And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.
2:32I am Gilles Galantz. I am joined by NFL betting expert and futures analyst, Brandon Anderson.
2:36It was Rankings Week here in the Action Network, and we liked it so much, we figured, why don't we just keep ranking stuff?
2:43So, rankings episodes are going to continue here with the Action Network.
2:47Today, though, we are looking at offenses. The NFL offensive side of the ball.
2:51We're going to rank 1 through 32. In the NFL.
2:54Now, Brandon, before we get into these tiers, some of the listeners may have listened to our pods already of skill position,
3:00quarterback, offensive line, and how we ranked those. I guess the question I would ask is, how does the criteria or even
3:07like the traits that you're looking for, how does that differ compared to what we did last week?
3:12Yeah, so this is really kind of the culmination of all that stuff, right?
3:16So, if you haven't listened yet, be sure to go back and listen or get the written form.
3:21We've got articles up at Action Network for all of these.
3:25So, quarterback, skill position, offensive line, that's it. That's the whole 11 that are out there.
3:29And then coaching, specifically for this one, what we call offensive coordinator, which is, you know, whoever's calling the plays there.
3:35That's a force multiplier. So, on all the parts, we're adding it all up.
3:40It's not additive. I'm kind of weighting things differently.
3:42Obviously, I want to make quarterbacks worth the most.
3:45We talked about like running backs versus receiving and all that sort of stuff.
3:49Passing game, more important than rushing game. And then, importantly, with offenses here, offense is stickier than defense.
3:54Just because if you have the star quarterback and or the star play caller, we pretty much know you're going to be good on offense year after year.
4:02So, that's why, you know, we love the 1 to 32 rankings.
4:06I see a lot of rank the top 10 offenses podcasts out there.
4:10And then they even go 10 down to 1.
4:12It's like, all right, come on. We already know the Rams and the Bills.
4:16Like, we already know who the teams are at the top.
4:20That's not really the fun part. The hard part is the teams past the top 10.
4:24The teams in the middle, especially kind of sorting out like, okay, what do we make of all this stuff there?
4:30So, we'll get to all that. And then just to stay on this one, we know I'm very big on DVOA.
4:37It adds a lot of context in, takes in a schedule and that sort of thing.
4:41I look at that for a lot of numbers to kind of help me direct on how the history has gone for
4:48players, coaches, teams, that sort of thing. These rankings are effectively me trying to predict who finishes at the top in DVOA.
4:54DVOA, who finishes at the bottom. And then basically, the further you get from the middle, the more my confidence is that you are directionally heading that way.
5:02So, not necessarily if you're number eight, I don't necessarily think you are the eighth best offense exactly.
5:08Maybe more like your eighth most likely to finish at the top of the league.
5:12So, near the top, I'm focusing more on ceiling.
5:15And can you get there near the bottom? Focusing more on what if the bottom drops out?
5:20How bad can it get? And, well, we'll get to those teams at the end.
5:24But as always, rankings and tiers, teams that are grouped together means they're pretty close.
5:28And again, probably near the top, I'm looking for upside at the top of the tier.
5:33Yeah, I was going to say, when you see some of those top 10 lists, it looks just like somebody just copied
5:40and pasted the top 10 in Super Bowl odds with an AI image.
5:43That's literally all the post is, right? So, all right.
5:46Well, let's get into your offensive rankings. We'll start at the top, tier one.
5:50We're going to run it back. The Los Angeles Rams, by themselves, by the way, alone in tier one.
5:56I don't think we need anybody to, like, we're not surprised that the Rams are at the top.
6:01Maybe I'm a little surprised they're alone at the top.
6:04Like, they led the league in DVOA, first place in both run and pass.
6:08Let's not talk about the good stuff about the Rams.
6:11What could go wrong with the Rams? Why wouldn't they be at the top of the league again by the end of the year?
6:18Yeah, we know all the good stuff. Stafford, we know.
6:21Puka and Devante receiving. Kyron and Corum, we've talked about the one-two punch, the top 10 offensive line, all the tight ends we love.
6:28And obviously, Sean McVay. So, you get the quarterback and the play caller and all the weapons.
6:33Pretty obvious, number one, when they were so good last year.
6:36The question then is, can you do it again?
6:39Because, don't forget, a year ago at this time, Baltimore was the number one in running and passing.
6:44And this, like, hyper-elite efficient offense. It turns out, if you're historically good, it's really hard to be historically good again the next year.
6:51That's, like, the whole point of being something historically is that it's not repeatable.
6:55So, this was especially rushing attack. Historically great by success rate, by some of those other measures.
7:00This rushing team was as good as it gets.
7:03And actually, kind of surprising maybe, eight of nine McVay years, the rushing DVOA has actually been as good or better than the passing.
7:10Even though we often think about, you know, the fireworks and the passing, that run game is the floor.
7:16So, if that does regress, look, it has to.
7:18It has to be a little bit down. Especially, talked about the line lacking some depth.
7:23Alaric Jackson, the left tackle, still question mark for on- and off-field reasons.
7:27If that comes back a little bit, the DVOA has to come back a little bit.
7:31Let me ask you this, Jill. So, they were number one last year, led with that.
7:36We have five Stafford seasons now. Throwing out the number one, not throwing it out, but setting that aside last year, what
7:42do you think is the Rams' top DVOA offensive ranking in any of the other four Stafford seasons?
7:48I would think it would probably be the first year when they went to the Super Bowl.
7:53I'm going to say eighth? Eighth is correct. It's eighth, ninth, and tenth, and then there's a 23rd.
7:58Yeah, you nailed that one. Well done. But, that should give us a little bit of pause of just assuming the Rams
8:04is going to run it back as this crazy number one offense.
8:08What a case. Eighth is great, but eighth is not first.
8:11That's a big fall off. Well done at nailing that one.
8:14But, it does give us, like, everything on paper, everything from last year, this is number one with the bullet all alone.
8:21So, that's where I'm ranking to start out. History says it's hard to do it two years in a row.
8:27Yeah, and you mentioned the year-over-year aspect. Like, last year at this time, we weren't even sure if Matthew Stafford was going
8:33to be on the field just given the back issues and whatnot.
8:37And here we are now. They're back at the top of the NFL offensive ranking.
8:41So, that's number one in Tier 1. Let's move to Tier 2.
8:45You call that gunning for that number one spot.
8:47Shout out to Nelly. Number two, you got the Bills.
8:50Number three, the 49ers. Number four, the Cowboys. Thank you.
8:53And number five, the Chicago Bears. Okay, not a lot of surprises in this group.
8:57I will say the one team that probably did surprise me the most was the 49ers.
9:02We'll talk about them here in a second. But Buffalo, I want to start with them because you seem, you know, when
9:09we did the rankings pods last week, outside of Josh Allen, you seem pretty lukewarm on the rest of the faces of this offense.
9:16Offensive line, you know, scale positions and whatnot. And then, of course, the 49ers, we talked about how you were, you agreed
9:22with me that the age, health problems, attrition, it's all kind of adding up.
9:26But then even with all of that, we still have them at two and three.
9:30So, make the case. Yeah, I mean, the case is in this instance, history, in our favor because the Bills by DVOA,
9:37top five, four straight years, by passing DVOA alone, top three, four of the last five years.
9:42Now, notably, the one they didn't was last year.
9:45They dropped down to 10th. Josh Allen was not his usual MVP self, especially taking sacks, navigating pocket, not quite as good as he has been.
9:52But we obviously get turnover here, but we did not turn over the play caller, Joe Brady.
9:57So, Joe Brady with him, the big leap has been not Allen.
10:01It's been the power run game. It's been James Cook, those blockers, that continuity on the line, top 10, four years in
10:07a row in Buffalo, top five each of the last two years.
10:11And we talked about the receivers. I think D.J.
10:13Moore is a good fit, even though I don't think he is a star or number one guy for them.
10:19But those receivers block well. The tight ends add a lot of blocking.
10:23Even if they kind of take a slight step back there on the offensive line, this run-heavy script with the rushing offense
10:29that's just built around Allen's skill set and everything else here, it's such a reliable floor.
10:34And you know Allen's going to do the passing.
10:37So, look, I don't love how run-heavy the play calling is here under Brady.
10:41It's part of why I'm a little bit tepid on the team as a whole.
10:45I think it sort of artificially caps the ceiling a little bit.
10:49And that's why we end up having to have Josh Allen don the cape and play Superman late in the game sometimes.
10:55I'd rather they just let him do that the rest of the game, and it looks pretty good.
11:00But at the top, it's Buffalo. Every year, it's one, two, three, four, one in that range.
11:05And again, we're looking at how likely are you?
11:08And Buffalo is as likely as anyone. I think the Niners are not that far off either.
11:13They have been top nine in DVOA, six of seven Shanahan seasons.
11:16And think about that with the substation and all the other injuries and year after year, the long list of all the names.
11:23And it's just another top 10 offense in San Francisco.
11:26Now, the rushing attack is kind of quietly slipping the last few years.
11:30McCaffrey even wasn't that great as a runner last year.
11:33But I think that's sort of been offset by the growth of Brock Purdy.
11:37I think the passing offense has gotten a lot better.
11:40Purdy now three full years as a starter. The Niners are averaging the number four DVO offense with top two in two of those three years.
11:47And he was hurt for part of the other year.
11:50So let me word that differently. Healthy Brock Purdy in Shanahan's system has been a top two offense, period.
11:56Even with all the other injuries on the line and all the weapons and everything else.
12:01So yes, I'm afraid of all the injuries on the line and all the weapons and everything else.
12:06But as long as it's Purdy and as long as it's Shanahan, history says we just should expect them to run it back near the top again.
12:14Definitely. And the 49ers just at least have that.
12:16We talk of this word pedigree, you know, that precedent that they have set on offense.
12:21The one team, though, that really came out of the gates was the Bears.
12:25Ben Johnson's arrival. You were one of the first people on Bears Island.
12:29Shout out to worst to first from a division standpoint.
12:32Is there any reason to believe they can get even better in year two under Ben Johnson?
12:37Yeah, I don't see why not. The Bears had been 22nd to 26th in offense six straight years.
12:42And then Ben shows up and they immediately go top 10.
12:45I think we had them eighth last year. They finished ninth here.
12:49The big, big jump, especially in the run game.
12:52I think that should be very strong again. It's Ben Johnson, man.
12:55He's elevating the offensive line. He's helping Caleb Williams grow.
12:58We talked about the way that kind of cut down some of those mistakes and got a lot better managing the pocket.
13:04It's the run heavy script sets the high floor and then you open up the play action.
13:09What I'd love to see where, where can they grow?
13:12We talked of this with Caleb, eat some more vegetables.
13:15Give me some of the more in-between stuff. It's still a little bit too much of a home run offense.
13:21They're getting the big plays, but especially in Ben Johnson, the football, you want to get the, the, the in-between the easier stuff as well.
13:28And I think if we can get some of the more vegetables along the way, and then those pass catchers, Bird and
13:35Odunze and obviously Loveland, if they take the leap, that's the area of growth.
13:39Then the sky's the limit here. But I think projecting top five as a slight step forward from top 10 is the
13:45right way to go with Ben Johnson. Okay. So you just said something top five, Dallas Cowboys, top five offense.
13:51That's that, that's music to my ears, but make the case.
13:54What's like the ceiling that you could think of with Dallas then?
13:58Yeah. I've seen some people out there have Dallas as high as number one, and I want to get that excited about it.
14:05I have a hard time getting quite to number one, healthy Dak Prescott.
14:09You know, I'm a Dak guy. Top 10 DVOA, six of his seven healthy seasons.
14:13So you're getting that floor in the top 10.
14:16And the problem is it's usually in the six to 10 range, not the top five range.
14:21So for me, this is the leap already into the top five.
14:24And last year, Clayton Adams showing up, the big leap was actually in the run game.
14:29We got a lot of attention on George Pickens, but you know, Javante Williams and those other options, those are not the strongest running backs in the league.
14:37We love Hunter Lipke, the fullback from NDSU. Love my guy there, but these aren't the best options attacking.
14:42But Clayton Adams is this creative run game attacker.
14:45That's where the leap was. I do think that's too.
14:48Last year, as well, you know, horrible, horrible defense.
14:51Last in the league by DVOA. So that's putting you in negative field position, negative game script, all game long, all season long.
14:57What if that's a little bit better? Even like closer league average, now is the offense set up a little bit more in position to succeed?
15:05And now can Dak and these pass catchers take the next step forward?
15:09Again, you hit ceiling with passing. The run game is there now if they want to push up all the way into the top five.
15:16And I think that's more the ceiling for me is closer to five than to one probably.
15:21But I do think that this is, you know, all signs up for this group.
15:26Okay. So that was tier two. You had the Buffalo Bills, the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears rounding out your top five.
15:33Let's now move to tier three. And this one, you got four teams in this group.
15:38You've got the Kansas City Chiefs at six, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens.
15:42For me, the main thing I take away immediately, like you've got four AFC quarterbacks like stud kind of lifting those supporting casts, right?
15:50So let's start then with the Chiefs, because we talked about this in the skill position rankings that you're starting to see
15:56regression on that front as far as personnel goes.
15:59And I'm just not sure if I'm ready to get back on the horse and believe with the Chiefs.
16:04Maybe you are. But it has to be probably more than just Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
16:09It's a lot, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, to be honest.
16:12The more this year that I'm hoping for and why I am a little bit more confident than I expected.
16:18I like the way the line has come together.
16:21And I really think Kenneth Walker can be a stronger addition than is being imagined.
16:25Look, I'm team running backs don't matter normally. But this was actually a relatively good rushing attack by success rate only.
16:31You needed three yards. They could get you three or four yards.
16:35They just couldn't get you eight or 12 or 20.
16:38They got like the worst explosive run rate in the league.
16:41Kenneth Walker is not as good at getting you the easy stuff that's there, but he is good at hitting that hole
16:47and exploding through and finding those explosives. So can that kind of mesh together?
16:52Can the line and the offensive system open up the easy stuff?
16:55And can the talent there that they didn't have with Pacheco and all the other guys last year, can Walker's talent and explosion add a lot there?
17:03That's the hope. Look, the passing has fallen off.
17:06We know how much the receiving has fallen off.
17:08There's not great options there. So I'm not necessarily expecting this to be this high-flying 5,000-yard Mahomes season again.
17:14But it is Mahomes. It is Andy Reid. And I think there's always that upside, too.
17:18If those guys get the fastball back, this is still number one potential.
17:22And I have to trust the floor. Even as it's gone bad last three years, bad has meant eighth, eighth, and twelfth by DVOA.
17:29And twelfth is with Mahomes missing half of the time as well.
17:33Not half, but a chunk of time. So if the floor is eighth, really, then putting them at sixth, I can still feel pretty good about that.
17:41Okay. Chiefs, fine. But Bengals, I would call you a skeptic.
17:44That would be the word that I would use of the Bengals and how you're approaching them on offense, it seems like.
17:50And I guess really what I want to know is, at seven, how are things going to be different for Joe Burrow
17:57and the Bengals as you wear your Bengals t-shirt here?
18:00Had to wear the Bengals shirt today. I believe this is probably the highest I've ever ranked this team going into the year.
18:06And look, I'll be honest. I thought the numbers kind of won me over as I dug into this.
18:12I'm usually the Bengals skeptic. I'm usually like, I don't know.
18:15Everyone just pencils them in for top five. I don't know if they're sure top ten.
18:20But part of that is because the underlying stuff that we don't focus on as much has been so garbage to me over the years.
18:27The offensive line, the coaching staff, nothing to help elevate.
18:30And we've talked about it along the way of just what if the offensive line is just kind of almost average and maybe slightly bad, but not terrible.
18:38They've got all five guys back. What if the play calling gets a little bit better?
18:43And look, I actually think the play calling, the numbers, maybe not quite as bad as I have painted it over the years.
18:50They actually rose last year to the number six rushing attack by DVOA.
18:54And now you get the whole line back. You get Chase Brown back.
18:57He's an underrated weapon. And that continuity on the line, I think, can help the earlier start.
19:02We know how Cincinnati has started slow oftentimes. And then here's where I came back to it.
19:07Last four years with Burrow, DVOA offensively. Fourth, then 11th.
19:10Fifth, then 13th. But those two times outside the top ten where I often slot them, Burrow missed 10 games and missed eight games.
19:17That's half of the season both time. And so if you just kind of do the math on it, that's a top five offense.
19:24Top five four years in a row is just that you're getting the not Burrow offense for the other half of the
19:31time, which we know has been more successful than you think.
19:34But the numbers basically say, hey, listen, Brandon, the numbers are right there.
19:38Burrow and this offense is already top five. And if the run game is better and the line's a little better and
19:44the play calling is a little better, maybe I'm actually being too conservative here.
19:48So I ended up really wanting to push them up the ranks and wear the Bengals shirt and let's get in on this team this year.
19:56Well, the Chargers, like when we did these rankings pods last week, very high on the offensive line and the coaching.
20:02And the fact that you were so high on those positions, I think it was just shocked to see them at eight.
20:09I thought maybe they'd be in tier two, right?
20:11Like, so make the case Chargers at eight. Yeah, so I initially had these three we just talked about exactly flipped.
20:17I had Chargers at six and I moved them down a little bit.
20:21A lot of stuff I like here. I like Herbert.
20:24I love Mike McDaniel. We know the McDaniel hype.
20:27And obviously some of those extra pieces we added.
20:29And then the big question with the offensive line, but high in my rankings there as well.
20:34The problem is it's a lot of things that I like and I'm already pricing in pretty strongly.
20:40I realize I'm kind of already pricing them at their peak.
20:43And I do think they can get there. I think this is a top three potential maybe in November or December once
20:49the line can figure itself out and get healthier, once they can adjust, once McDaniel finds some answers.
20:55But McDaniel's only had four years with Miami, two top seven offenses, but bottom 10 the last two years.
21:00And look, he did some cool stuff, found some great running attacks, but still you want to not be bottom 10 if you're this offensive genius.
21:08Herbert, he's only had one top 10 DVU offense ever.
21:11His average finish is 14th. They were 21st last year.
21:14So all of that to get to, what do we have them here, eighth?
21:18That's a big jump already to get there. So I think on the balance of the season, a little caution maybe toward
21:24the back end of the top 10, even though I think that maybe toward the playoffs, as things kind of round into
21:31place, this slowly moves up the list. But it's a belief in Herbert McDaniel, the run game, offensive line.
21:36I still like all that, but I'm already pricing in my like of it all, and it still kind of puts them in this range.
21:43So I think I need to price in a little bit of caution because it's the Chargers.
21:48We all know the caution needs to be there.
21:51Well, we're recording this on Monday, August 24th. By the time you might listen to this, you might have heard of another
21:57offensive line injury that we're not aware of coming out of the Chargers camp.
22:02Okay. Speaking of a plummet here, the Ravens, because you mentioned that you had them number one overall coming into the season last year.
22:09So this feels like kind of a bet on Lamar bouncing back here, especially with their new O.C.
22:14Declan Doyle. Make the case for the Ravens. Yeah, this is kind of the opposite of what I just said, where I
22:20actually had them a little lower, like 12 or 13.
22:23And I kept kind of just looking team by team, slowly move them up a spot, move them up a spot.
22:29And they ended up at the last second moving up a tier because I was like, well, look, like you said, here's
22:36these stud AFC quarterbacks with their cast. That fits the Lamar Jackson thing, too.
22:40So we talked about how good this offense was two years ago.
22:43We know the ceiling and the floor is the rushing attack, which they were top five even last year, even as things didn't go well.
22:51And Lamar couldn't even run. So he wasn't even really part of that last year.
22:55They were still top five. And now Declan Doyle.
22:58The projection is Ben Johnson offense. So what does that mean?
23:01Great run game. I can't expect that to go anywhere with Derrick Henry and now Lamar's legs, hopefully back and usually less passing, but efficient passing.
23:09And we've seen when Lamar does the little bit less but more efficient thing, it can be really good.
23:14So wide, wide variance offense for me. We don't know with Declan Doyle yet what it looks like or even if Lamar is totally healthy.
23:21I have this like as high as the number three offense, as low as 20th, which is close to where they were last year.
23:28So in the end, I kind of like it.
23:31I kind of believe in this group and the results that we've seen.
23:35And I just kept slowly nudging them up the rankings.
23:38All right. Let's move to tier four. This one's called the sky's the limit, a.k.a.
23:42The ceiling is the roof. And at number 10, you have the Green Bay Packers, number 11, New England Patriots, number 12,
23:49Minnesota Vikings, number 13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Green Bay, you had them bottom five offensive lines.
23:53So the fact that you have them top 10, is this just directly related to your belief in Jordan Love?
23:59It's Jordan Love, but it's really it's Matt LaFleur, actually, that it's the floor here for him.
24:04He's never finished below 11th in offensive D-way any season.
24:07And with Jordan Love, top six every season, including top four passing.
24:11And it's like it's hard to ignore those numbers.
24:13Last year, that was kind of the notes I had on this team.
24:17And here we are again now. I do think this is probably the floor version of LaFleur because of the offensive line.
24:23And I don't love how run heavy his teams are, especially if you're going to be inefficient run heavy with a bad line.
24:30Then I really am not going to love that.
24:33So I had to keep them top 10 just because Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love, it's such a high floor for me.
24:39And man, saying LaFleur and floor a bunch of times in a row, don't do that.
24:44But I'm not super in on this team, but I can't be super out with those two around.
24:49OK, so top 10. You have the Patriots just outside the top 10 this time, even though they did finish third in DVOA last year.
24:57And I mean, they added some better skill guys.
24:59They added A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs. So what contributed to them dropping out of the top 10 for you?
25:05Yeah, it's not necessarily for me dropping out of the top 10, even though I know they were third last year.
25:11It's for me. How high could I get them from where I had them last year?
25:16And look, I was in on Drake May, but I think I still haven't cut up to the public perception of just
25:22how in you have to be on Drake May for this.
25:26Obviously, the receiving group is a huge boost this year.
25:28A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs. We talk about how we love how that totally remakes the weapons.
25:33I just had a hard time getting them all the way up.
25:37Like you basically I have to make Drake May something of equal to Josh Allen in my metrics in order to get
25:43the Patriots up into the top 10 and even pushing top five.
25:47And I'm just not there quite yet. And maybe he is that good.
25:50And I know he looked that good last year.
25:53But the rushing attack really still below average here last year.
25:56It was all Drake May knows all the downfield attack.
25:59And I know it should be even better theoretically, but things aren't as linear.
26:03So if I'm low on this one, it's because I just haven't quite got there all the way on Drake May.
26:09I had him, what, I think six or seventh in my QB rankings as well.
26:14That wasn't the case last year. He was number one.
26:17He was the best guy out there. So if he is that again, I'm just going to have to adjust and move them slowly up.
26:24All right. I'm going to combine the Vikings and Bucs here because it's kind of a combination here of what I wanted
26:31to ask with the Bucs that you had their offensive line, like top two, the Vikings, you know, their coaching staff or skill position in top five.
26:38They've seen top five ranks in different various shapes and forms of these rankings that we've done, but they're still outside the top 10 as an overall offense.
26:47So I guess really what it comes down to for these two teams, what do you think can push them into a top 10 rank?
26:54Yeah. Yeah. So the Vikings, we talked about a little skepticism from me on Kevin O'Connell, having never had a top 14
27:00offense yet in the NFL average DVOA rank is 20 seconds, almost bottom 10 there.
27:05I believe, I think this is going to be the best version yet.
27:09If we get a healthy Kyler Murray, if we get a healthy offensive line, obviously a big question mark there, but Frank
27:15Smith bringing him to coach the offensive line, I think is going to unlock a rushing attack that KOC has really never had there.
27:22So I think this is going to sound crazy, but if KOC calls plays the way everyone gives them credit for, and
27:28if the line is healthy and Kyler is relatively healthy, I think that even not even like an A plus outcome for
27:35those group, even like a B plus. I think this has like a Shanahan style offense, top three upside if the pieces
27:41are all there, but we need to see the pieces there with Tampa.
27:45It's really all that offensive line. So they were number seven and offense just two years ago.
27:50That was a Liam Cohen year. They've been like 18th and 20th around that.
27:54So is this an average offense or a pretty good one?
27:57I'm kind of splitting the difference here in the middle.
28:00I'm a little nervous on this one. This is about, I think I'm high man on the box from what I've seen
28:07around the internet, but it's the belief in that line.
28:10I think this can end up the number one offensive line.
28:13I kind of like Zach Robinson as a play caller.
28:16I'm sort of believing in the Baker. I believe here we are at 13th.
28:20I think that's right where I had Baker squeezing him into 13th.
28:23As you pointed out, just got one more name into the rankings.
28:27And so this is where I'm at with Tampa and it's a team I've really wanted to believe in.
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33:01DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, let's move to Tier 5.
33:05You've titled this tier. This would be extremely disappointing.
33:07And at number 14, you have the Detroit Lions and number 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
33:12Number 16, the Eagles. 17, Broncos. And 18, the Colts.
33:15Okay. Five teams in this tier. Very interesting group of teams as well.
33:19When we did rankings for like skill positions and just other phases, you had the Lions, you know, top five in some spots here.
33:26All the way down to 14th overall though. Yeah, the Lions, our team, I think is going to really surprise some people.
33:32The teams in this group are teams that we are expecting largely, we at large in the fandom and media expect these to be good offenses.
33:40And here we are basically calling them league average here.
33:43The Lions, I think, are the biggest surprise. I've seen them in a lot of top five offense rankings overall.
33:48I just can't quite get there with this group.
33:51To me, we've sort of talked about this throughout on all the podcasts so far.
33:55Everything is just continuing to move in the wrong direction.
33:58No Ben Johnson anymore. The direction offensively has not been quite the same.
34:02The run game has slowly dropped a little bit.
34:05Barely top 10 last year. And now David Montgomery is gone.
34:08The offensive line, we talked about my concerns there.
34:11Back down to about the same spot. League average there, especially while Cade Mays, the new center, is out.
34:16And Panay Sewell is adjusting to the left side.
34:19You get a rookie on the right side. And all that just adds up to, I think, an ecosystem where the interior line isn't as strong.
34:26And now Jared Goff is maybe struggling. And we know he has not been good.
34:31Most aren't. But especially Goff under interior pressure. And then the whole setup is run heavy.
34:36And that normally works for them. But if the run game isn't quite as reliable or strong, and now you need to
34:42pass more, and you don't want to be passing more when it's Goff in a must-pass scenario, there are just a lot of yellow flags here.
34:50There are no red flags. There's a lot of things to like.
34:53But I just feel like I need to keep tilting in the direction where this is going.
34:58And I don't want to fight upstream. And it seems like we kind of are like, oh, you know what?
35:04The Lions, their ratings are pretty good last year.
35:07Everything is fine. I don't think everything is fine.
35:09I think everything is slowly slipping in that Detroit team.
35:12Yeah, the window seems to be closing much faster on Detroit than we had anticipated, I think.
35:17And part of that, I think, is the offensive line regression.
35:20Jacksonville, though, a bit of a surprise here at 15.
35:23I thought maybe they might crack top 10 for you, just given how your affinity for like Liam Cohen and that coaching
35:30staff, and then even just the fact that you had Trevor Lawrence.
35:33If my memory serves, you had him 11th overall for quarterbacks.
35:36So how does that add up for you to be at 15th?
35:40Yeah, I ended up kind of thinking about this team the way I described the Bengals from the last few years, because
35:46it's the limitations of the offensive line here. As a bottom offensive line, that just hurts so much of the underlying stuff.
35:53It nukes the run game that Cohen has not found a good run game here, and it just limits your overall upside.
35:59And what's interesting, as much as we love Liam Cohen, look, I had that staff so high, tier two in the coaching
36:06staff rankings, and it's partly the defensive guys and special teams even as well.
36:10But I gave Cohen a lot of credit. They finished 14th on offense last year.
36:14If you look at the three years before Cohen got there with Trevor Lawrence, they finished an average of 14th.
36:20They didn't go up at all last year. They did the same thing.
36:24They stayed the course. They did go up late in the season, but they play a lot of weak defenses late in the season.
36:31So I do think this, again, with Detroit, we're trickling the wrong direction.
36:35I think we're moving the right direction here, but we need to see more offensive line and we need to see, can Cohen reach the box heights?
36:43Remember, that's the team he got up to number seven.
36:45He didn't quite do that yet with this Jacksonville offense.
36:48Can he get there? I think they're moving that direction, but not quite there yet.
36:53Okay, let's move to the segment that we seem to do in every show where we try to piss off the Eagles fans.
37:0016th for the Eagles overall on offense. Basically, middle of the pack.
37:03And without me putting words in your mouth, is that what you're saying?
37:07That this offense is middle of the pack? I think I am.
37:10You can put the words in my mouth. We know it's not hard to get on the Eagles fans bad side.
37:17I seem to be quite good at it. But I think AJ Brown is very obviously a huge loss here.
37:22I know we like some of the receivers they brought in, but no AJ is just going to be, has to be factored in.
37:29Everything kind of filters down there. I think the offensive line we talked about, even if it's top five, not number one, that's still a drop there.
37:37The run game has really slowly slipped away. Here's the run DV away over the last five years under Hertz.
37:43Number one, then third, then fifth, then sixth. Still good.
37:46Wrong direction. Then 24th last year. Huge drop off.
37:49Saquon wasn't getting those huge explosives. And look, those will probably come back a little bit there.
37:54But I think it's fascinating because I think that that mirrors Jalen Hurts as a runner where he's just not running that much anymore.
38:01He's not adding the value that he once did there.
38:04And as a passer, he's just not adding that much value.
38:07If I'm being honest, passing offense the last three years.
38:10And let's remember with AJ Brown, with Devante Smith, they've been 12th, 14th, just kind of slightly above average.
38:15And they're not even passing that much. So I can't get there with Jalen Hurts.
38:20I don't love Sean Mannion's fit with his team.
38:22They want to attack the middle of the field.
38:25Jalen Hurts, I got to see it. I got to see you do the thing.
38:29For all the things we looked at with Jalen Hurts, they basically had the best line in the league for his whole five years there.
38:37They've had great weapons most of the time. Saquon and AJ and Devante, you know that in five years with Jalen Hurts,
38:43the Eagles have one top nine offense ever. They have averaged 11th.
38:47They average outside the top 10 with probably the best quarterback setup in the league.
38:51Sorry, Jalen Hurts is not that guy. And until he shows he is for more than one game in the playoffs for
38:57how about 18 in the regular season again? Then I have to cap the ceiling here.
39:02Oh man, the Eagles fans are going to be my DMs after this.
39:06Here we go. Yeah, they're putting that clip on social.
39:09I already feel it. All right. Denver. A bit lower than I thought you would have them, especially when we talked about
39:15the skill positions and you weighing wide receivers so heavily and talking about the incoming of Jalen Waddle and how that will affect this offense.
39:23What's happening here? Because it seems like this might just be a case of we already kind of know what we're getting.
39:29Is that why we have them here around 17?
39:32Yeah, I think that that's mostly that case. This is about where they've been finishing the last few years with Sean Payton.
39:38And look, they've raised the floor to make them kind of be in this group.
39:43It's pretty good to be in a group with Detroit, with Philadelphia.
39:46That's pretty good for what the personnel is in Denver.
39:49And I think Waddle raises the ceiling. The question mark is Davis Webb actually calling plays now.
39:54And it's possible that Waddle raising the ceiling and look, I thought the Sean Payton offense was a bit ceiling cap the
40:00last couple of years because of what they're doing.
40:03Maybe Davis Webb raises the ceiling to something above that.
40:06I think that's totally possible, but he's also not Sean Payton.
40:09So he also has to lower the floor of where that could go in the other direction.
40:14And I don't really know, to be honest. So this is one where I'm sticking them in the middle for now.
40:20And I'm expecting them to maybe move five points in either direction.
40:24I just don't know which direction until we see it a little bit.
40:28Yeah, the clock's ticking on Davis Webb because Sean Payton will just take that role back.
40:32Yeah, he'll just do the thing. Yeah. Which does limit the floor a little bit, to be fair.
40:38You know, they can only fall so far. Like we saw with the Lions last year, it wasn't working with John Morton.
40:44So they're just like, all right, Dan Campbell, do the thing again.
40:48So that could happen here. And it's a good point.
40:50So I haven't had them any lower because, you know, we already know how good they can be.
40:56And it should be easy, safe-ish floor and some room for ceiling.
40:59Well, a team that we did see it working for at least the first two months of the season was the Indianapolis Colts.
41:06Because they were putting up pretty decent numbers, especially with Daniel Jones.
41:09But now we're coming back with Daniel Jones, torn Achilles.
41:12So you're not buying it like that that can get back to that kind of ceiling?
41:17Yeah, I was surprised how high they were in the numbers.
41:20They still finished as the fifth best offense last season, even though we basically only had good offense for half of the year.
41:27That's how good they were for that half of the year.
41:30They were still top seven rush and passing to end the season.
41:34I should be higher on them, to be honest.
41:36The Steichen, I love. The offensive line, I love.
41:39The run game is really good. It's just Daniel Jones.
41:42I just can't do with Daniel Jones as the player we've known over the years, but particularly off the Achilles injury.
41:48And I know we're all hearing all the buzz in training camp, but we're also hearing we're not going to get to
41:55see him until he plays in week one. And look, if he goes out and plays two or three good games to
42:01start the year and they're right back to being that top offense, I'm going to have been wrong on this.
42:07I'll have to adjust in a big way. But I just we've seen Kirk Cousins.
42:11We've seen Aaron Rodgers. Older guys, I know. But we've seen recently quarterbacks off Achilles.
42:16And I know it's like, oh, Achilles is just like a spray naquel these days.
42:20Shake it off and get back out there. I just can't quite do it with Daniel Jones.
42:25So I'm going to be skeptical for now. But it's very clear that the upside is there.
42:30Yeah, Achilles and torn ACL. That used to be like micro fracture surgery, like where you just don't come back from it now.
42:37Anybody can come back from those surgeries. OK, let's move to tier six.
42:41This tier is called squint. And you could maybe see a competent offense at 19.
42:45You have the Washington Commanders, number 20, the Raiders, number 21, the Seahawks and number 22, the Saints.
42:50I feel like I got to defend the Seahawks here because there's been a couple of pods that we've done now.
42:56And I mean, they're just coming off of a Super Bowl win where I'm seeing them in the bottom 10 in some phases of offense.
43:04What's the case here? Why were you so down overall on this unit?
43:07Yeah, and they were top 10. They finished 10th last year with Kubiak.
43:11But Kubiak is not there anymore. And that really is the whole thing for me, as we'll get to in a couple
43:18other teams in this tier, where I thought Kubiak's offense already faded late in the season.
43:22Even early, they were looking so good, that efficient deep ball JSN putting up huge numbers.
43:27And it started to disappear. And there wasn't a lot of eating vegetables left underneath that.
43:32There wasn't a lot of substance underneath that. And now, if I think, look, the defense has to be a little worse
43:38than last year, even though I think it'll be great, that means a worse game script than last year.
43:44Probably we're going to get a worse rushing attack because Kenneth Walker is gone.
43:48And Charbonnet, we don't know when he'll play. So we basically have a rookie there.
43:52All that is, again, tilting things in the wrong direction.
43:55And you take away Kubiak. You take away the floor.
43:58What made the offensive line go from what was supposed to be bottom five last year to this quality, above-average sort of unit?
44:05Okay, well, how about now? How about after Kubiak?
44:07Because we've seen that in other places. It hasn't gone as well.
44:11We don't know much about Fleury, the new play caller.
44:14There are a lot of reasons for me to point down on this team than Arrow pointing up.
44:19And so I'm surprised to have them this low.
44:22They don't feel like they belong in this group.
44:24But if you said top 10 or bottom 10, you can't go middle.
44:28I have to go bottom 10 because I just don't see a strong top 10 case.
44:33Okay. But these other three teams, like they kind of, I don't know, I probably would have had the Seahawks at the
44:39first of this tier or maybe even a tier above.
44:42But let's just talk about these four teams as a group.
44:45Because in your article that you published on Action Network, you had said these four offenses.
44:50If things go well, like they could be in the top half of the league.
44:55And so I guess we already talked about the Seahawks.
44:57Make the case for Commanders, Raiders, Saints. Like what you like about these three offenses and maybe even why you rank them in that order.
45:05Because again, I just, I think the Seahawks, if I had to, I would probably put them first in this tier.
45:11And that's probably the only difference. Yeah. So this maybe is just the Clint Kubiak tier as it turns out, because we're
45:17going to talk about them for two of these three teams.
45:21The Raiders are the other side of the Kubiak coin.
45:24They get him this year. So what I'm taking away as the floor raiser gone from Seattle, I'm adding in to the
45:30Vegas side of things where the offensive line is rated pretty low.
45:34But Colton Miller is a stud. They go out and get Tyler Linderbaum.
45:37That line could be good if you get those guys and Kubiak raising the floor.
45:42If you're a fancy football player, if you were to draft on Sunday, you had a whirlwind of a day.
45:48Ashton Gentry gets this injury early in the day.
45:50And it's like, oh no, he's out for the season.
45:53What's this going to be terrible? And then like end of the night, it's like, oh yeah, he had a sprained ankle.
46:00It's fine, everybody. Don't worry about it. So hopefully you got him for cheap in your draft.
46:05Mike Washington's look good. He's suddenly going like second round yesterday in drafts.
46:08Now you get both of them because Gentry is fine.
46:11And I think you get this sort of stable run game.
46:14And now you get either Cook, Kirk, Cousins, or eventually Mendoza.
46:18And picture Brock Bowers as the wide receiver one.
46:20They don't really have a receiver, but he's basically a receiver and a pretty good one.
46:25So you get the offense built around, run the football, play action to Bowers over the middle.
46:30Then you get Jack Bash. You get some of the other guys catching stuff underneath, some long stuff.
46:35You can sort of see the vision. You can see everything kind of coming together there.
46:40And I think probably later this year or next year is the real vision there.
46:44But I just, I can see the upside. They're best out of this group.
46:48The Saints, they're a Kubiak team also. They were the team that Kubiak two years ago.
46:53And we saw last year, the rushing attack drop from top half of the league to 30th when he left.
46:59Now look, last year, we liked a lot of things about the Saints.
47:03The numbers don't really buy it. The numbers share some of the skepticism I've had where they actually fell from 23rd to 27th and offense last year.
47:1127th, as much as we've talked about all the upside on the guys here.
47:15And I think a lot of that is factoring in that it was a lot against bad defenses late.
47:20So we know about the receivers, the offensive line, all the youth upside there.
47:24Those same dudes are all the injury risk as well.
47:27So a bit of skepticism for them. Commander's not a whole lot known here.
47:31We don't love losing Laramie Tunsil. So that might just sort of doom this ranking already.
47:36But it's Jane Daniels. It's still Jane Daniels who clearly has like top five to seven potential, who did it already as a rookie.
47:43And we like David Blau as an upside there.
47:46We don't really know. But if I had to pick one of the teams, I'm going to pick the quarterback and the play caller.
47:53So I like Kubiak, the play caller, the best.
47:55This is the Kubiak grouping. But I like Blau and I'll bet on Jane Daniels.
48:00Hard for me to get there on the Saints.
48:02There's just too many things that can go wrong for them.
48:06Well, the things that are probably going to go wrong are for these next 10 teams because we're in the bottom 10 now of offenses.
48:13And it's just going to get gross as we keep going.
48:16This is tier seven. You called definitely not good, but shouldn't be terrible.
48:20And the way I interpret that is, first off, the teams that are in this tier is the Houston Texans, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Arizona Cardinals.
48:28The way I interpret this tier name is that they're not going to be top five offenses by any time soon.
48:34But you're not expecting them to completely bottom out either.
48:37Yeah, that's exactly it. It's just kind of like something akin to below average.
48:41And look, so let's do Steelers first because how many average Steelers have we had?
48:46Like every ranking, average, average, average. What's not average is the quarterback and the play caller.
48:50Well, that's Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. So that's why you're not average Steelers.
48:54You're below average. Do the math on how I factored in the quarterback and the play calling.
48:59Arizona, bottom 10 offensive line, no real quarterback. Different LaFleur, Mike LaFleur there.
49:03Don't know if we quite trust that yet. It did not go well when he called play for the Jets.
49:09So have to be a little skeptical there. And then actually, I might be low on the Texans here because CJ Stroud,
49:15three years in the NFL, has actually finished 20th on average on offense.
49:19That's not terrible. I don't think we think of the Texans as 20th.
49:23I think we think of them as like 28th.
49:26Like close your eyes. It's awful. Look away like it was in the playoffs.
49:30They were 19th last year, including they were 19th running the football last year.
49:34The thing that I and many others are like, they can't run the ball at all.
49:38The line stinks. There's nothing there. So weirdly enough, FTN, who actually puts out the DVOA rankings, they project the Texans in their top 10.
49:46I think even like closer to top five offensively this year.
49:49If you like that, you should be getting the Super Bowl ticket right now for that team because we know how good the defense will be.
49:57I can't see it. I can't get there anywhere close in my matrix.
50:00All my numbers are everything. I don't trust the O-line at all, even though I'm kind of into it.
50:06It's just Nico Collins among weapons. I can't quite get there, but this is still fringe bottom 10.
50:11And I think mine, the numbers from DVOA suggest they should really even be up a handful of spots from here.
50:17But I don't know. Maybe Houston is more bad than terrible.
50:21And I have a hard time parsing between those two things.
50:24Okay, so these three teams, you think they're not going to bottom out.
50:28That's the Texans, Steelers, and Cardinals. But these next four teams, it seems pretty likely.
50:32We're at 26. We have the Falcons, number 27, the Giants, number 28, the Panthers, and number 29, the Jets.
50:38I got one small critique here because if you listen to our skill position rankings, you had the Cardinals and Falcons in the top 10.
50:45I didn't necessarily agree with those rankings, but I was like, okay, these are your rankings.
50:50You do your thing. But then I look at this overall ranking and I'm like 25th and 26th.
50:55I'm like, okay, that seems maybe a little more accurate.
50:58But again, make the case of why we're at bottom five or close to bottom five on this side, but yet still
51:05have the skill position players to be in the top 10.
51:08Yeah, because we're playing football, not fantasy football. And it's more than just the skill players there.
51:13And because somebody's got to play quarterback and somebody has to call plays and block.
51:17And I don't love most of that stuff with these teams.
51:20With the Falcons, I kind of like the blocking too.
51:23Remember, I had them near top 10 offensive line.
51:26So I really feel like this should be higher.
51:29What this is reflecting is I don't really believe in Stefanski and Tommy Reese as the offense.
51:34I thought maybe that would bring a floor there.
51:36But I looked into it and they were bottom five offense the last three years in a row with Cleveland.
51:42Look, nothing to work with there. But what are you working with in Atlanta?
51:46You got either Tua or Michael Penix. And at the end of the day, even if I paint the optimistic view of
51:53one of those guys playing quarterback, it's still like a below average, no ceiling quarterback.
51:57And so even the good Falcons scenario quarterback wise, I just can't get to any realistic ceiling with this group because it's hard to imagine.
52:04And then the bad is really bad because you might not have an NFL quarterback on the roster.
52:10I don't know if Penix is a quarterback anyway, but he's not ready.
52:13And Tua is like, can't throw from me to you across the screen right now.
52:18So I don't know what's supposed to be left there.
52:21All right. Let's stick with the two teams in New York, both the Giants and the Jets.
52:26I think I'm a little more optimistic on the Giants side on offense than the Jets.
52:30But what could make the bottom fall out on both of these offenses?
52:34Yeah, I want to be more optimistic on the Giants.
52:37We're going to do worst to first later this week, and they're definitely in my running for that sort of team.
52:43The optimism there is there's four guys that have got to stay healthy.
52:47It's Jackson Dart, Cam Scadabell, Malik Neighbors, Andrew Thomas.
52:50If they have a good season, if they push 8, 9, 10 wins and kind of stay in the mix of things,
52:56it's because those four guys stayed healthy. In particular, Neighbors and Thomas really have to stay healthy.
53:01I actually think if Dart were to get hurt, I'm kind of intrigued by Jameis Winston, like the perfect YOLO guy in this offensive, being honest.
53:09I don't necessarily hate that. But underneath all that is Matt Nagy.
53:12We know how we don't like Matt Nagy and what he does to offenses.
53:16No. Can he provide a floor? Can the floor raise for this team?
53:20What I like about Dart and Jameis is they're not vegetable guys.
53:24They're home run hitters. And with this offense, it's not going to be a good play in and play out sort of offense.
53:30But can they hit some big plays? Can they go neighbors down the sideline?
53:34Can Scadabell get some big plays in there? I like the upside there.
53:38But take away one or two of those pieces, and the Jenga starts to shake and tumble really quickly.
53:44And we know how injury prone all four of those guys have been.
53:48With the Jets, actually surprised me. 20th and 21st offense the last two years.
53:52Not as bad as I would have thought that they were.
53:55A lot of young talent up and down the roster, except at quarterback where you were rightfully skeptical of my Geno Smith ranking.
54:02I am being rightfully skeptical of my Geno Smith ranking here because the only way it works for the Jets is two
54:08big things have to go at least sort of right.
54:11Geno has to be at least sort of okay.
54:14And Frank Reich has to be at least sort of okay.
54:17And I can very easily see a world where neither one of those guys, or even if even one of them is
54:23terrible, then I think the whole thing turns into a pumpkin and that's it.
54:27And last one, Panthers. It's just the offensive line is so rough right now.
54:31And I'm a little bit lower on Dave Canales after digging into.
54:35He's actually never had an offense better than 20th in the three years.
54:39Even what got him the job from Tampa was 20th as a huge drop from Liam Cohen.
54:44So the ranking spot here is kind of the Bryce Young ranking, where it's like just good enough to not be awful.
54:50And that's about it. And it's just like this.
54:53You got a little bit of floor and no ceiling, and that's where we're stuck here.
54:58Yeah, it's hard to be optimistic with the Panthers right now.
55:01I think you have them bottom five ranked in everything that we've done except for coaching so far.
55:06So now bottom three teams. This is our final tier, and there is no optimism in sight at this stage.
55:12It is the Tennessee Titans, the Miami Dolphins, and the Cleveland Browns.
55:15Not surprised. They've been bottom five in some way, shape, or form in every one of our rankings.
55:21We did an exercise at the start with the Rams where I was like, why wouldn't they finish number one?
55:27What about these bottom three teams? Why aren't these bottom three teams?
55:30Why won't they finish at the bottom? I think if you want to squint and find a little bit of hope, with
55:36the Titans, it's got to just be Cam Ward, right?
55:39Like, we know the tools. We know you can pass the eye test, Cam Ward.
55:44Can you do it for a few plays in a row?
55:47Can you put together a drive? Can you give us a whole half of football?
55:51I don't know, man. I've been watching preseason football.
55:54I don't feel great about the belief in Cam Ward right now.
55:58I don't see the leap coming there. But if Carnell tight at those better receivers, if that passing game can find a
56:04leap, maybe that's where they outperform a little bit.
56:07But with the Dolphins, I think it's the run game.
56:10It's Devon Achan and Malik Willis. We know he's going to be a good runner.
56:14I don't know if he's a passer. I don't know if he's a quarterback, frankly.
56:18But we know he can run. And Bobby Sloick, offensively, has been good starting with the run game.
56:24And so maybe they can just get a floor with the run game there.
56:28And with Cleveland, look, if you're dead last in the quarterback rankings and apparently starting Deshaun Watson, what are you doing, Cleveland?
56:34And you're dead last in the offensive line rankings.
56:37You're dead in a rival. I don't know what you're supposed to do with that.
56:41But the upside belief for Cleveland, and I do believe it a little bit, a lot of fun young weapons, right?
56:47We like Casey Concepcion. We like Denzel Boston. And Todd Munkin has found ways to make things work.
56:53So what if we could just snap the ball and get it out real quick to one of the weapons and let
56:59them be the offense and just try to minimize the quarterback and the blocking as much as we can?
57:05Maybe you'll find something there. But hard for me to get any of these teams past the bottom five to seven.
57:11Yeah. As soon as I saw that they announced Deshaun Watson as the week one starter, I was like, they cannot be any higher than 32.
57:18They have to be last with Deshaun Watson there as quarterback.
57:22All right. Let's talk about the top 10 again.
57:24So at the top 10, number one, you have the Rams, two Bills, number three 49ers, number four Cowboys, number five Chicago Bears.
57:31Followed by that, you have the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers rounding out that top 10.
57:38Now I made a joke at the top that a lot of the time these people's top 10 rankings, it kind of
57:45just feels like you took the Super Bowl odds and just copied it over.
57:49Obviously, it just seems like from these rankings, like offense wins the day.
57:53Yeah, it's really crazy. So I looked up and last year in DVOA, the top 21 teams, the top 21 all won
57:59eight or more games except the Chiefs and the Bengals.
58:02And we know the Bengals and the Chiefs had injuries to the quarterback, still finished that high anyway, because they were that good for parts of the year.
58:10So that's how good it was that way. The other side leaves 11 teams left, one playoff team outside of that group.
58:17And that was the eight and nine division winning Panthers, because somebody had to win the division.
58:22So it really is that simple. You really do need offense.
58:25And that's why you're right. Like as you look at the rankings, you might be low on the Bears.
58:30I thought it was gonna be low on the Bears, but if they're really a top five offense, it's hard to be
58:37that low on a team that's that good offensively.
58:39Right. Okay. So then the trend that I immediately see, if you look at that top five, you've got Rams, Niners, Cowboys, Bears.
58:46What does that mean for the rest of the NFC?
58:49If four of the top five offenses are coming out of the NFC conference?
58:53Yeah, it means you better have some firepower, man.
58:56You better find some offense to match up with those teams, or you better have a great defense.
59:01So back to our Seattle longstanding conversation here. Not great that you're number 21 offensively when there it is in the division,
59:07two of the top three offenses right there for you.
59:10But if you're not going to have the offense, you better have the Mike McDonald defense.
59:15You better have the defensive weapon to counteract some of these offenses.
59:19If you don't have either one of those, it's not going to be a great season probably for you in the NFC.
59:25And the AFC is the opposite. They're the bottom four offenses.
59:28I don't know that we make too much of that.
59:31Like no one has a lot of hope for the Jets, Titans, Dolphins, and Browns.
59:36No one needed to tell you that, but over half of the AFC finished between 6th and 20th.
59:41Pretty packed in tight there. And a lot of ones where you can like argue them up a couple spots or down.
59:47So to me, that tells me what stands out here.
59:50Is your defense going to help you stand out?
59:53Is your coaching giving you an edge? Or if that young quarterback hits, could you move up a little bit and surprise?
59:59I mean, you know, we can easy mobility in the rankings when they're all that close together.
60:04I don't want to step too much on your divisional betting, like how you approach it from a future standpoint.
60:10But there's some clusters here in these rankings that I think might relate to that.
60:15Like I wanted to talk like, for example, you have the NFC North.
60:18You've got all in between 5 and 14. AFC West, all between 6 and 20.
60:23So briefly, like how do you kind of approach that as a futures bettor, especially from a division winner?
60:28Yeah, I think you approach that as opportunity. When everything is clustered together and we know how high variance football is, it's
60:35an oblong ball and the ball bounces funny. To me, that smells like long shots.
60:39It doesn't mean the long shot's going to win.
60:42But when it's that close together, that means variance wins the day.
60:45And that means weird things can happen even midway through the season where things can kind of bounce back their direction.
60:51So like we just said, it could be that you look at the other stuff besides offense, the defense, the coaching, some of those things.
60:59Or it might just be that the long shot kind of wins out with a little bit of variance here.
61:05And so you look for not the favorite, probably.
61:07You're probably not wanting to invest there. But take the longer numbers.
61:11Who's a little bit further down the list that might actually surprise?
61:14So I want our listeners, if they're listening today, to go check out the article on ActionNetwork.com for your offensive rankings.
61:20Because in the article, you mentioned two teams in particular.
61:23And I wanted to bring this up because I had to.
61:27I'm wearing the Cowboys shirt. And basically just that we should feel good about the direction that these two teams are going.
61:33And that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys.
61:36So what should we feel good about? Yeah, you mentioned division betting.
61:40These are, by my metrics, the best offense in their divisions, both by a pretty sizable margin.
61:45Tampa Bay, I have them at 13th. We talked about them kind of in that cusp of pushing into top 10.
61:51Everyone else is fringe bottom 10. So that is a pretty big gap from the top to the rest of the division there.
61:58And then I know you love your Cowboys. Number four offensively.
62:01And everyone else is league average or worse. Remember, we had the Eagles at average.
62:05And everything else is below that. So that, to me, is the biggest division gap at the top.
62:10If you're looking for who stands out and who wins its offenses, you have to feel pretty good about Tampa Bay and Dallas.
62:17All right. Feeling good about the Buccaneers and the Cowboys.
62:20Before we get out of here, it's time for our segment presented by DraftKings.
62:24Now, Brandon, we just got done talking about the Cowboys and the Bucs.
62:28Give us a play you would like to go along with what we've discussed today.
62:32Yeah, I think it's just as we were just talking about with the Dallas Cowboys, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
62:38So I think you can go with both of those.
62:41How about Dallas Cowboys? Maybe to win the NFC East division.
62:44They've got that big gap way ahead of the rest of the crowd or over the nine and a half on the win total as well.
62:52And then Tampa, maybe some division for them as well.
62:55We love to bet the NFC South, right? Buccaneers, NFC South ticket.
62:58Or if you just think, how about being better than a 500 team over the eight and a half on the win total?
63:05You can go over that as well, if you like.
63:08Well, as a Cowboys fan, you know I'm going to love to hear that, right?
63:12And to all our other Cowboys fans that are listening in the great state of Texas or our Bucs fans in Florida,
63:19if you want to join Brandon on these, remember that the DraftKings Sports app is now available in all 50 states.
63:25So go download it today. All right, that'll do it for us here on the Action Network podcast doing offensive rankings.
63:31I want to thank you for tuning in today.
63:34Don't forget to leave us that five-star rating and review wherever you listen to the podcast and download the free award-winning Action Network app.
63:41You can save $20 off of an annual pro account by using code POD20 at actionnetwork.com slash pro.
63:46So for Brandon Anderson, I'm Gilles Gallant. Thank you again for listening to the Action Network podcast.
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