2026 World Cup Final & Third Place Match Betting Preview
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
58 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 16, 2026
Published
Thu, July 16, 2026
1
Player insights
1
Players mentioned
Topics
Anthony Gordon
Player analysis
Player insights
Anthony Gordon
PositiveProjection34:34
Anthony Gordon scored the opening goal in the semi-final against Argentina, providing a spark in a match where Argentina was otherwise struggling to threaten the goal.
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Episode Transcript
0:00On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
0:06I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
0:14I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
0:24I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
0:29Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:35I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
0:39You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
0:44Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
0:51You're not hired just to fill time and space.
0:55You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:05Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
1:14Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
1:18We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the
1:27site of a social experiment and fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
1:35Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:41You hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
1:45We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
1:48The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
1:53I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
2:00I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
2:05Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
2:11And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
2:14Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
2:22Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud.
2:26Red alert! They're up and running again. It's smooth.
2:29So sweet. Fusion. Guys, all I'm looking for is 60% effort, or 1,000% of the time.
2:35How sharp was that? Sharp. And that's why you see those beautiful tears.
2:40Look at his movements. The most dangerous man on the planet.
2:44Nobody picks him up. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.
2:48We've reached the end of the road here at the 2026 World Cup, which means we first have a third-place game to
2:56discuss, and then, obviously, the championship final between Spain and Argentina.
3:00But before we do, we need to revisit how we got here.
3:05Unfortunately, Sam, you've drawn the short straw. It's time for the English heartbreak portion of our show.
3:11What was it like to watch it slip through their fingers with a trip to the final on the line, and where were you for the match?
3:21Yeah, I was actually on a flight back to London.
3:25I was set to miss the game, but we were on the runway for like three and a bit hours, so I
3:33actually ended up watching it all on my phone with a plane full of English supporters, so that was interesting.
3:41The game, yeah, it was just so deflating, really.
3:44Across the whole 90 minutes, arguably, Argentina deserved the win, considering what went on in the final stages of the second half.
3:52It's just, for me, that the most annoying thing, and I know most English supporters will feel exactly the same, is that
4:01England effectively just rolled over and had their bellies tickled in the final stages.
4:06And that's the most frustrating thing, because we've seen it so many times as England fans.
4:12They maybe start the game well, score an early goal, score the first goal, and then from there on out, it's effectively,
4:20let's not lose the game, instead of let's win the game.
4:24At this level, at the World Cup semi-final, you cannot go ahead 1-0 in the game, and then just sit in your
4:33own penalty box for the last 20, 25 minutes or so.
4:37We had 11 men sitting in, focusing on only defending and not conceding, and you can't really do that against a team like Argentina.
4:46You can't give players like Lionel Messi the freedom to go out there and express themselves and create chances.
4:53We obviously conceded twice later on, two Messi assists, but McAllister also hit the post twice.
4:59So he could have scored a couple more in the second half on another day.
5:05And for me in that situation, England have to be braver.
5:09They need to have outlets at the top of the pitch to make runs into the channel, hold the ball up, take
5:17the pressure off their defensive, their back line. Tutu's substitutions were all defensive, and he will get a lot of slack for that.
5:26And yeah, the way England set up in the final stages, Kane was on its last legs.
5:32We had nothing out wide late on in the game.
5:36So there was nothing up there to relieve pressure.
5:39England had 12% possession after going 1-0 up in the game, 12%.
5:44That's unforgivable in my eyes. They didn't want to get on the ball.
5:49And if we quickly look back to Egypt-Argentina quarterfinal, when Egypt scored the penalty, and then it was all Argentina.
5:56But Egypt kept a couple of players up top, and they were willing to commit bodies forward.
6:03And their midfield was willing to go with the ball as they progressed through the thirds in transition and on the counterattack.
6:11And Egypt scored twice in that game, in exactly the same scenario, with Argentina piling forward.
6:17One of their goals was ruled out for a pull of the shirt, but Egypt were brave.
6:23And by brave, by the way, for England, I don't mean that they should be just sending players forward and attacking, attacking.
6:32Being brave could simply mean being brave on the ball, keeping hold of the ball, trying to play, keeping Argentina away from
6:40regaining possession, just doing something other than sitting in and trying to rebuff attacks.
6:45And, you know, it was just crazy to me.
6:48We had like 11 players in the box, as if we were expecting a load of crosses.
6:55I know a lot of crosses came in, but it's not like they had a Haaland in the box, or a Kane,
7:03or, you know, someone big that was going to continuously win aerial duels.
7:08It just, yeah, it's just frustrating. But fair play to Argentina.
7:12I don't want to come on here and just moan.
7:16They know how to win big games of football.
7:19England don't win the big games when it really matters against these kind of nations, and they've proved as much in recent years.
7:28But yeah, fair play to Argentina. It was just really, really disappointing from an England perspective.
7:34Daniele, from the other side of things, we talked back in mid-June about Spain's 0-0 start to this tournament against Cape Verde Islands.
7:43And you believed at the time, you said things would be okay for Luis de Fuente.
7:49And you were right. They've given up one goal in the World Cup, and now, you know, they're coming off silencing the French.
7:57Just, you know, 0.31 expected goals for the French side after being so dominant.
8:03They were running it up 16-2 in terms of goal differential coming into that match.
8:08So complete domination for the Spanish side. Have we missed the storyline that Spain is a historically good team and should be viewed that way?
8:18Obviously, they need to finish the job. But very quickly, it's gone from the French side getting most of the headlines to
8:26now you have to consider this, you know, this team as one of the best of all time, right?
8:33Perhaps we overestimated France and we've been blurred and fascinated by how well they played in attack and how scintillating they were, which they still remain.
8:43But of course, when they meet Spain, who is a team who is as good as them in attack, but can show
8:51great composure, great control of the ball. And it's a team that's gone 37 matches unbeaten in all competitions, including friendlies.
8:59One more match and they will establish the best record ever in international football.
9:04They came unstuck. The collective prevailed over the individuals, but it's only because the collective of Spain can apply themselves so well
9:13and they are so well drilled, but also they are anchored by extremely gifted players, midfielders like Rodri, like Fabian Ruiz, that
9:21command the ball, command possession and a defensive line that not only can defend because Laporte and Cubercy are very good man
9:29markers, but also can push the line high, can attack, can really set up the standards.
9:35And that's really been the key of Spain's success.
9:39The difference with England was starking. After taking the lead, Spain still exerted control, but in a calm way.
9:46You could understand the game didn't become frantic. The second goal that Spain scored is a succession of short passes that then opens up France.
9:55There are a couple of true balls attempted that didn't go through, but then Spain has quickly regained possession of the second
10:03ball, recycle it, and they always positively try to find the space and eventually Pedro Porro scores.
10:10So yeah, it is a combination of factors. Sometimes perhaps we pundits, we forget the collective wins.
10:16You know, you have to have brilliant individuals, but it's also the collective.
10:21International football with national teams is perhaps less sophisticated than club football.
10:26Teams have got less time to gel, less time to try together.
10:30So there have to be some strong fundamentals, some strong principles.
10:34Spain, until 2006, they were underachievers. They were knocked out in the quarterfinals of the World Cup by France, had won nothing apart from Euros in the 60s.
10:45Since then, they've invented a style of play and they churned out players after players after players and they're still there, they're
10:53still at the top despite a few bumps in the road, but who hasn't had them?
10:59So credit to them in the last 20 years, they are the golden standard of football and they deserve to be in the final.
11:08Now, before we get to the final, we have to discuss this third-placed match and what's interesting for our American audience, we've basically done away with this.
11:18The last third-place match in March Madness came in 1981.
11:22You know, essentially, we know that those teams that get so close to a title, there's just not much motivation or morale
11:30to tap into and yes, the star power is off the charts here between France and England, you know, Mbappe, Dembele, Kane, Bellingham.
11:39How much are they going to play? Where is their head at in this match?
11:45And then even when you go to the odds, it doesn't give you much clarity.
11:50France minus 115, England plus 285, the draw priced out at plus 285, the match will be played in Miami, Florida.
11:58And as we just discussed, Daniele, France was on the warpath, not something you get to say all that often about the
12:06French, but they outscored opponents, as I said, by 14 goals, you know, and plus differential before that shutout loss to Spain.
12:15England, as we know, had a lead in the 84th minute.
12:19The next seven minutes were a total nightmare to the extent that I was seeing on Twitter, you had fictitious accounts for
12:27Paddington Bear holding a gun to his head saying, I hope they have marmalade in hell.
12:33Like, everyone's not handling it so well on the other side of the pond, and I can't imagine inside this locker room there's much positivity.
12:42So, Sam, you're just going to go ahead and fade them and say that the French care more about this match and
12:51that, you know, English essentially is coming in dead.
12:54maybe, Mike. Yeah, I don't, I don't really know.
12:57It's a really difficult game to bet on. I don't necessarily think France are going to be any more keen to win this game than England are.
13:08I don't know how important this will be to them.
13:11What it is, it's Didier Deschamps' last game as France's boss, so maybe they will want to grow on a high.
13:19Not only that, Kylian Mbappe is joint top goal scorer alongside Lionel Messi at the tournament, and although this game is, you
13:28know, not one that everyone wants to partake in, it does still count to, you know, the golden ball and the goal scoring charts and the assist charts.
13:38So there is that, but it is a hard game to bet on because we're not sure who's going to start.
13:46We don't know the level of rotation. No player, supporter, management team really wants to be involved in the game.
13:54So it makes betting on it pretty tricky. Both teams were the favourites in their respective semi-finals according to the bookmakers' odds,
14:02so both will feel somewhat aggrieved to be involved.
14:05But what we can do is to maybe give us some further insight into how third-place playoff fixtures typically play out is
14:13to look at all of the previous 20 third-place playoff matches in this tournament in World Cup history.
14:20So I'll put together some stats looking at those 20 games.
14:24Only one third-place playoff fixture at the World Cup has reached extra time out of 20 fixtures and that was France v Belgium in 1986.
14:34So the other 19 matches were all decided in 90 minutes.
14:38There's never been a penalty shootout in the third-place playoff fixture, which I thought was pretty interesting.
14:4411 of the last 12 of these games have ended with over 2.5 goals.
14:50So England were actually involved in one outlier across those 12 games.
14:54They lost 2-0 against Belgium in the World Cup in Russia 2018.
14:59Obviously, as you'd expect, the bookmakers are well aware of this trend and they've priced the goal markets accordingly.
15:06The goal line is a 3.25 Asian goal line, so they're expecting at least four goals in this match.
15:13So where I'm heading in a game which is typically high scoring and typically settled within 90 minutes, I think what you
15:21probably should do is maybe avoid the draw and maybe just pick whoever you fancy to win the game.
15:28Like I said a minute ago, Didier Deschamps' last game, Kylian Mbappe's, if he starts, he is going to be looking for
15:37one or two more goals to get that golden boot.
15:40I think maybe France at minus 1-1-1 is probably a good way to go and if you wanted a bigger price, maybe
15:49pair that with France and over 1.5 goals, France and over 2.5 goals.
15:54So we've seen, although we're maybe not too sure how this game is going to look, we've seen over the years that
16:02this is a game that is high scoring and yeah, it's usually set within 90 minutes.
16:08So if we do see rotated teams, I would argue and many people would that France's depth is stronger than England's.
16:16Not only that, but France have an extra day's worth of rest considering that they both played their semis only a few
16:24days ago, obviously a really highly emotionally charged game.
16:27I think it probably will have an effect depending on the level of rotation so definitely take that into consideration.
16:35So in the end, I've ended on just simply France at minus 1-1-1 but like I said, you could add goals to
16:43it and get a bit of a bigger price.
16:47Daniele, despite all the historical data, shootouts, matches decided in those 90 minutes, you're actually going to go under three and a
16:55half year and you're paying a bit of a premium for it, minus 143.
17:00So like I said at the top, a lot of this is just narrative-based how you think these teams are going to
17:08come in and whether it's the rotations, whether it's the motivation to play, I think it's a very interesting angle on Mbappe.
17:17I could argue if I'm holding a ticket on someone else to win the Golden Boot, I don't think it's fair that
17:25any of his stats should count after he was eliminated from the knockout round, that's an argument for another day, but there's
17:33lots of different angles that you can approach this match from, so walk me through why under is your play.
17:41Let's start with a slight digression on the value of the third place final, if I may.
17:47In any other sport, it would be very, very important.
17:51At the Olympics, it would be very important. At the World Championship of any other sport that is not football, the bronze
17:59final, the bronze medal final, it's extremely important. Unfortunately, in football, because we deal with emotions, whoever doesn't win is automatically a loser.
18:08And just a parenthesis on where England are and what the ceiling is.
18:13They are the fourth best ranked team in the world by FIFA, whether you believe it or not.
18:19The fact that they have a chance to compete for the third place should be seen almost like a minor success, if you like.
18:28In any other walk of life, Mike, if you have a company and your company is the fourth best seller of whichever
18:37manufactured goods, if you hold that position at the end of the year, they're not going to sack the CEO, are they?
18:45But these are not manufactured goods, these are emotions, this is football and we always want our team to do better.
18:53So unfortunately, I have to say that Thomas Tuchel has an improved England, has basically maintained them where they were after Southgate,
19:01taking over some very strong and solid foundations. It's not to me to say whether it is hard to sacking or not.
19:09Coming into the third place final, as I said, as meaningless as it looks like, it's still an opportunity for England to
19:18go one step above what they would normally be expected to be and for France to finish on a high.
19:25But I do think that although the majority of the third place finals playoff have been over 2.5 goals, the vast majority
19:34of those games have been played in a football that doesn't exist anymore, in a football where there were fewer fixtures, where
19:42players were not so tired at the end of the season.
19:46The last three World Cup third place playoffs had never gone above three goals and I think that is quite telling.
19:54The third place playoff means a lot for those teams who never had a genuinely hope to win the tournament.
20:01Croatia, Morocco, Sweden, these sort of teams that play the third place playoff.
20:06For the deluded ones, for the disappointed ones, no, it's just a burden and I do think this is going to be a very low scoring game.
20:16That's why I went for another 3.5 goals. Also, he's played in Miami at 5pm, so the time is not very convenient really.
20:25Only one of the six World Cup matches played in Miami has gone above three goals during the tournament.
20:32We've seen Norway, England play in Miami 1-1 after 90 minutes.
20:36They're going to be tired, they're going to be exhausted and not expecting a fast start.
20:42I'm expecting a low scoring game really and potentially for the managers to give chances to those who played fewer minutes, which
20:51again could lead to a very stop and start and a choppy game.
20:56For me, France wins, by the way. I think for me, France wins 2-0, but it's probably an under 3.5 goals.
21:03Yeah, you're going to have to indulge me as well here with that manufacturing nuggets.
21:09Here in America, when we have those fill-ins for the mystery products, you know, it can be a thingamajig, a gadget, it
21:17could be, I'm trying to think what else, a widget.
21:21You know, we throw around widget. Is there any Italian word, fill-in word that you could share with the program?
21:29No, not from the top of my head, to be fair.
21:33You put me on the spot there. But yeah, I think it's, it was a parallel, just to explain why football involves
21:41so much and drives so many emotions and it makes us slightly rational.
21:46And obviously, yes, I am all philosophical today because my team hasn't played in the World Cup and my team hasn't lost the World Cup semifinals.
21:56Obviously, that's no consolation for some, but you know, yeah, I think it's about levels, it's about ceilings, it's about where each team is.
22:05And yeah, you know, the third playoff unfortunately is deemed as useless, whereas probably if we were looking more from a sporting
22:13perspective, yeah, it's still very, very meaningful. Maybe only fewer games should be playing across the year to make it more interesting.
22:21As the American philosopher Ricky Bobby once said, if you ain't first, you're last.
22:27So I think it'll be interesting to see the motivation.
22:30Maybe we can know in the first 10 to 15 minutes to see if one side is giving full effort or not.
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24:10On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
24:16I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
24:24I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
24:34I'm on a mission to reclaim the word solita, trading the pity for possibility.
24:39Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us, not a lot of people smile around here.
24:49It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies you're sold about it.
24:57It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind or wake up to a new version of yourself.
25:06So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita
25:14on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
25:18I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
25:23If you know me, you know I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
25:29So this podcast lets us uncover those things together through meaningful conversations with fascinating people.
25:35Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
25:42You're not hired just to fill time and space.
25:45You're hired to fill the space with you. You have something in your guts.
25:50You go with it. And Shawn Johnson recalled the moment she realized her now husband, Andrew, was the one.
25:58He was just so unapologetically himself and knew nothing of Hollywood.
26:02He hadn't been on a plane before without his family.
26:05It was so pure. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
26:14Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
26:18But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
26:21What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
26:28Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
26:34The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
26:39But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
26:47Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
26:55God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
26:59Do not use my hard work to sell your bulls**t.
27:03They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
27:06Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
27:13Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
27:18Listen to Our Town on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
27:25Hey, this is Hayes Davenport and Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook on the Big Money Players Network.
27:32Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, aka The Biz, and try
27:41to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
27:46Everyone has a good time and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
27:53We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, not that great.
27:58Actually, can you help me shape this? How about we flip it on his head?
28:04How about we flip the script? Okay. What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird?
28:14Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show.
28:20I would never expect... Let go of that. I have...
28:24I would never set expectations for something like that to happen.
28:28It seems like you did. If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it.
28:35I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine.
28:39Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway to be honest with you.
28:46I was like, is that weed? Nope. It's fragile masculinity.
28:50Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is.
28:58You know what I mean? They're so stupid. Everyone's so dumb except for you.
29:03Right, fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life.
29:09I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
29:17Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on
29:25every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
29:33The cast of Frozen stopped by Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
29:38I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
29:45I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
29:50Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
29:56And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
29:59Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
30:07On to the championship final in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Spain, Argentina.
30:11The Spanish side, plus $130 to win in 90 minutes.
30:15Argentina, plus $255 to draw. Priced out at just shy of $2 to $1 to win in any way, shape, or form.
30:24Spain, minus $160. Argentina, plus $125. All right, let's unpack this here, guys.
30:28Can Argentina repeat as world champions something that hasn't happened in 64 years?
30:33That's the headline. The Spanish side, by the way, they've run the longest World Cup gauntlet possible, giving up just one goal the entire way.
30:43They've also, you know, entered here, unbeaten in 37 matches, 28 wins, nine draws.
30:48Their last loss, a 1-0 loss to Colombia in March of 2024, a run that now ties them with Italy's impressive run
30:56from 2018 to 2021, and they got there, as we mentioned, by demolishing the French side 2-0 in the semis.
31:04But I think we've kind of danced around this through many of these episodes, but I'd like to address the elephant in the room, and it's twofold.
31:14One, we have Messi's last match in all likelihood at the World Cup.
31:19And to put it lightly, there's been some instances where the officiating has made it seem like Argentina's been up a man in this tournament.
31:28You can call it late match luck. You can say essentially what six million people have said, which is that they've signed
31:36an online petition demanding Argentina's expulsion from the World Cup.
31:40You know, all these allegations that there's been favoritism from the referees.
31:45People are pissed. And it's not just, you know, fans in the stands either.
31:50Egypt's manager, Hassam Hassan, furiously went off after their match.
31:54He said, I'll say what I think regardless of consequences.
31:58This has clearly been rigged and everyone has seen it.
32:01If they want to win so badly, why are they inviting everyone else to participate in the World Cup?
32:08Really strong words. And this is from an American who, you know, our coaches and players go off on refs all the time.
32:17So let me go to you first, Daniele. Do you think that the Argentinians have had the refs in their pocket?
32:25And if so, how much does that factor into your handicap here?
32:30This is the final, obviously, all the eyes of the entire world will be on this match.
32:36So even FIFA and, you know, all of their problematic entanglements and their PR disasters, they don't want this to come off
32:44as a match that isn't on the up and up.
32:48So how do you factor all this in when you start breaking this down?
32:53First of all, I'm not here to condone referee mistakes or to absolve them.
32:58I think there have been mistakes mistakes, and we are used to some of the mistakes made by VAR in the Premier League and in Europe.
33:08When it comes to international officiating, the standard is so different and is so varied.
33:14That's why the discrepancies, but it's called World Cup for a reason and there are teams from all over the world and
33:22there are referees from all over the world. We have to accept it.
33:27I think Argentina have benefited from some 50-50 calls, but I think overall you can't really say that the tournament has been rigged and has been in favour.
33:38What the Egyptian manager says sounds very bitter, very disappointed and deluded.
33:42If it's so clear, he should present the proof.
33:46It was a referee mistake, of course. It was also a mistake from Egypt to allow three goals in 15 minutes, if you like.
33:55I think you have to take some checks and balance here.
33:59How do I factor the fact that Argentina somehow had been considered favourite with favourites?
34:04I don't, really. I think I only judge what I see on the pitch and I see an Argentina that has got a never-say-die attitude.
34:14It is Argentina that is extremely good in tight margins.
34:17It's a side, it's a tournament side that even when they go behind, they don't panic.
34:23You always feel they have extra resources and they have got extra energies, of course.
34:29But their semi-final showing against England was poor until Anthony Gordon scored the opener.
34:34They barely threatened Jordan Pickford and they were extremely aggressive with and without the ball.
34:40The referee decided to let a lot of challenges go, but that's the way he wanted to officiate and we were expecting the Argentinian to be aggressive.
34:50I think they will be exactly the same, but this is a different makeup.
34:55A lot of Argentinians play in Spain from Simeone to Julian Alvarez.
35:00Of course, Messi play there. The Spanish know the Argentina really well.
35:04I think they can match them for physicality as well.
35:08So I mean, I think this is a complex game if you like.
35:13But yeah, for me, this is not a foregone conclusion only because there are some allegations that Argentina somehow have had it easier.
35:22One thing for sure, they've had an easy path.
35:25They've had an easy path to the semifinal for sure, but that's not down to them.
35:31They won the group as expected and they beat the team they were supposed to beat, of course, surviving a few scares.
35:39Sam, do you still believe in this Argentinian magic that perhaps if they go down 1-0 in this match is the time
35:48to hop in on the other side from a live bet perspective or are you willing to ride with the Spanish from the beginning?
35:57Yeah, I really like Spain. I think they have a much better squad and I think they will be too good in the end for Argentina.
36:07Whether that comes inside 90 minutes, we'll see. They might need extra time to get the job done.
36:13But yeah, I think Spain are the better team and at plus 1-2-5 to win in 90 minutes, it's not a bad price.
36:22It's probably one I'm going to take. Looking at Spain when they've been priced at this price point previously, they've been priced
36:30above minus 1-1-1 on the 1x2 market in five matches since the start of 2025.
36:36Those games have averaged 4.0 goals per nightly with both teams scoring in three of those five games.
36:43So looking at the World Cup specifically, the World Cup final, from 1990 to 2014, six of seven World Cup finals ended
36:51under 2.5 goals before the two most recent finals which ended 4-2 in 2018 and 3-3 in Qatar.
36:58So whether that's a high-scoring World Cup final trend that will continue is up for debate.
37:04I would suggest not, given Spain's defensive output so far this summer.
37:08Last time out in the semis, Daniele touched on Argentina brilliantly, so I'll lean towards Spain.
37:14Maybe France 2-0, and it was convincing. And this is a France team which were favourites to win the tournament in play.
37:23Spain entered the tournament as pre-tournament favourites. And what Spain did in that semi-final, for me, it was really impressive given this
37:31is a French team that we've spoken about their front line countless times on this World Cup podcast this summer, led by
37:39Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, scoring freely, posing nightmares for opposing defensive.
37:43But Spain, they were able to limit France to 0.31 XG, no big chances.
37:48France had three shots inside the box, and limiting France to so few goal-scoring opportunities was made even more impressive if you
37:57consider that Ayaz Abel scored his penalty in a 22nd minute.
38:01So, despite France having to, attempting to overcome a deficit for over 70 minutes, Spain held firm, they were rarely threatened.
38:09I can't really think of too many chances, off the top of my head, that France had.
38:15I know Mbappe had a shot edge of the box.
38:19Cundé put in a cross which didn't end in a shot, I think maybe in the first half, but other than that,
38:27I can't really think of too many occasions where Spain were really threatened.
38:32And looking at the tournament as a whole, Spain have conceded just one goal in their seven fixtures, and Daniele mentioned it,
38:40Argentina's probably had a more straightforward path, and Argentina have conceded seven goals in that time frame to offer a comparison.
38:48So, I know football doesn't always work out like that, Argentina's had the easier path, conceded more goals, therefore Spain will probably win.
38:57That's obviously not how it works, but I think it offers a level of insight into how Spain might be fairly comfortable
39:05if they can keep possession, regain possession if they take the lead, if they can continue keeping possession like they did against France.
39:14Whereas England, you know, they were scared, retreated into their box against Argentina, allowed Argentina all the possession.
39:21Daniele mentioned it a minute ago. Spain were the complete opposite.
39:25They wanted to get on the ball, they committed bodies forward, they had attack after attack, they got the second goal, and
39:33that is how teams win the World Cup, that's how big nations win the World Cup.
39:39They're confident in themselves, they're confident on the ball, they know if they go ahead they'll see their game out, they know
39:47if they go behind that they're able to get back in the game, and that's why Argentina's been so good this tournament,
39:56because they know they can go behind, and they know they have it in them, they know they have the quality within
40:04their side to get back into the game. So I suppose if you're going to back Spain that is a concern, but
40:12going off Spain's underlying defensive process this tournament, they've averaged 0.31 XGA per 90 across the whole tournament, which is the best
40:20in the competition so far, and despite playing seven games, the most of any nation alongside the other semi-finalists, Spain have conceded
40:29the fewest expected goals against in their entire tournament, which is really impressive, and that's because, like we've said, they can keep
40:37the ball, they don't give it away. Once they do give it away, they're quick to regain possession, and they've got really
40:45technical players in there that will keep it and gladly keep it.
40:50They'll want the ball in tight situations, and in those tight situations, they can negate the press and work themselves out of it.
40:58So for me, probably the most important battle, is in the midfield, and I think I fancy Spain's midfield to, I don't
41:07know how to put it, to out technical France's midfield.
41:10I expect them to get on the ball, and Argentina's midfield, sorry, and work their way through whatever Argentina has to throw at them.
41:20So yeah, alongside that and the two wings against Argentina's full-backs, which I think Jamal will have a field day, and whether
41:28it's Alex Boehn on the left or Nico Williams on the left against Molina on that side, Taglafico on the other side,
41:36if Spain can find joy down the wings and if they can win that midfield battle, I'm pretty confident Spain are going to win this.
41:45Yeah, whether that's in 90 minutes, we're yet to see, but Spain at plus 125, I think that's a pretty good price.
41:54Daniela, you're going under two and a half goals in minus 154.
41:58I'm interested in that perspective, but I'd like to take it even further and go into some exact scores, because if it's
42:07a nil-nil draw after 90 minutes, that's plus 750.
42:101-1, it's almost 5-1 on a payout, and 2-0 for the Spanish side pays out 10-1.
42:16I wouldn't mind a strategy of sprinkling a third of a unit across those three, and then banking on it, because from
42:24everything I've seen, they've been able to solve every offensive puzzle that's been thrown at them from opposing attacks.
42:31There's still going to be some tense moments in the final 10 minutes of regular time, because Argentina has come on like
42:40an avalanche late in matches, so it's going to be white knuckle time if the Spanish side has a lead, but I
42:48still think that's the way to go about it.
42:51Are you interested at all in some of those exact outcomes?
42:55And then in terms of laying the minus 154, parlay of lowering that juice a bit?
43:01I think possibly the outcome that interests me most is the 1-0 win for Spain.
43:07I think if they score early, they will be able to keep the ball well, to keep composure, they will not retreat
43:15to a low block, they're not used to do that, at the same time defending with the ball by offering an outlet.
43:24I like the way Spain are set up with a false nine that takes the central defender to the position outside of
43:32the comfort zone, and Baena being so important tactically, I mean the interchangeability between them and let's not forget in midfield they
43:40go Mikel Merino and Zubimendi as well as Pedri, Gavi, they don't even play, they are on the bench, they are excellent
43:48midfielders and certainly that depth and quality is superior to Argentina ones, but you know, from Argentina let's not forget Scaloni has
43:57showed tactical flexibility, he has showed he knows how to make the changes at the right time, because in the semi-final many
44:05would have been tempted to put Lautaro Martinez straight on and actually put it at the end, instead he had first Nico
44:13Gonzalez, then he had Montiel, then of course he had DePaul, and at the end he clogged the area box with Lautaro
44:22Martinez to avoid especially that confusion I think that was a particular smart move and then of course Messi who decided to
44:30play as a right winger understood perfectly that that was where the space was and because his lack of running he had
44:38so much space unmarked and all he had to do was to deliver the ball into the box now for Messi to
44:46cross unmarked it's pretty easy you know you don't have to run to cross the ball doesn't sweat so you just put
44:55a brilliant ball into the box and someone was going to attack it so let's not underestimate this facet of the game
45:03of Argentina being able to understand the moments of the game and being able to change quickly within the game I do
45:11still think that Spain has got the upper end because they've been phenomenal defensively and then if we want to go down
45:19just a little bit of trivia in 13 of the past 14 finals across men and women major championship world cup and
45:28European championship the team that has played the day before the semifinal won the title I think there is a reason to
45:36believe that the extra rest day could play into Spain advantage this is going to be played at 3pm if I'm not
45:44wrong in Foxborough in New York New Jersey open stadium no air conditioning sweltering condition Argentina have gone through 3 extra times
45:532 extra times this is knockout Spain haven't played any extra time so the extra rest of course will be important but
46:01yeah I think it comes down to those 5 margins we have analysed the numbers we've broken down the numbers Spain I
46:09know they are high scoring in this streak of 37 matches they only failed to score 3 times every time they've been
46:17priced above 190 in the last year all the 4 games have produced at least 4 goals 3 goals or more but
46:26they were all against European oppositions Portugal France Netherlands and Denmark I think Argentina are a different beast in these regards and
46:34I think they can keep perhaps I know it's a premium 1-0 1-1 I wouldn't go really beyond that we now have
46:42our best bet segment presented by our sponsor Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook Sam I'm going to go to you first you like
46:51the Spanish side to lift the trophy here and if you just bet that on its own it's minus 160 but you've
46:59tacked something on to get it to Spain at plus 125 but obviously with this bet we get extra time and penalties
47:07on our side in what I think might be a lower scoring final than what we've seen in the two previous editions
47:15of the World Cup I just think Spain are too good and will be too good for Argentina they've got the better
47:24squad keep the ball magnificently and as we've touched on they kept France who are blessed in forward areas to if they
47:32can replicate that if they can monopolize possession as they typically do once they lose it as efficiently as we've seen them
47:40do then Spain win this Spain to lift the trophy under 3.5 goes at plus 100 Daniella you've earned a reputation here
47:48throughout the World Cup for putting together exotics and complicated bets but you're keeping it straightforward here just kidding a four leg
47:57parlay your final best bet of the World Cup I since 1982 and that is Inter Milan by the way it was
48:05Bayern Munich and Inter Milan until four years ago but of course England got knocked out but Lautaro Martinez is I would
48:13be curious if people know every single Inter player who played in the World Cup final since 1982 I Juliano Simeone plus
48:22one foul Unai Simon plus two or more saves Emiliano Martinez two or more saves under 3.5 goals total plus 110 very
48:30quickly Simeone made five fouls against England he escaped a yellow card don't know how he averages 3.78 fouls per 90 minutes
48:38at the World Cup Simone and Martinez both averaged fewer than two saves per game around 1.20 but this is a World
48:46Cup final in the last three World Cup finals on average there have been 10 shots on target so maybe they could
48:55make two saves and ultime as I said I think this is going to be a low scoring game so all together
49:03that will just take plus 110 Daniele Sam you guys have done yeoman's work throughout the entire tournament and despite having to
49:11do this indoors air conditions you still talk about the World Cup final I do want to touch on this third place
49:19game for a little bit here because we got quite the game here between France and England two teams with high hopes
49:28to make the finals ultimately crashed out and this is a really interesting one because my model has a massive edge on
49:36England to win whether it's in regulation or you know just to kind of take home the third place result but that's
49:44based off a longer sample size from before this World Cup as well right because the model doesn't want to just include
49:53the seven World Cup games so you have to look at the World England in terms of expected goals numbers France has
50:01a plus 9.2 expected goal differential while England only has a plus 4.2 expected goal differential over their seven games now England
50:09does make up for it a little bit by facing a harder median schedule in those seven games they faced opponents that
50:17rate about 42 ELO more difficult than the opponents France faced as a median but again that's not enough between a larger
50:26sample size and the more effective sample size of the World Cup games themselves of course France also got the benefit of
50:34playing a Norway team that was playing some backups here but I am going to go with my model here and I
50:42am going to take England to win whether you want to take it in regulation or you just want to win as
50:50the third place team overall England had a larger goal differential per game than France did when you removed the bottom team
50:59from England group because England had a larger World Cup qualifying group than France did so I also like it to be
51:07high scoring my model does adjust for the fact that the third place game is high scoring so if you want to
51:15sprinkle some exact scores on England at some high scores like a 2-1 or 3-2 or 3-1 my model is showing value
51:24on those as well so my pick for the third place game England to finish third sprinkle some higher scoring England results
51:32as well for 90 minutes speaking of your model Dr.
51:36Nick it was well calibrated for the semis picking Argentina and Spain to advance we talked about it you know throughout the
51:44show kind of the magic the the the officiating perhaps being on the side of Argentina the fact of the matter is
51:52they pulled so many rabbits out of their hat late in this knockout round and shown that they have it depends really
52:00in the said Argentina so many comebacks so many late game winners but in the end my model actually still does have
52:09value on Argentina here in the 90 minute money line for example it has Argentina at around 31% you can get you
52:17know around some plus 250s out there so that would be some value on Argentina on the 90 minute money line and
52:25I think for me personally that's a decent hedge because I have a future on Spain to win the World Cup so
52:34I matchup here they do tend to be a little bit higher scoring than non you know so intraconfederational games so that
52:42little bit of lack of familiarity does tend to open things up a play their game like they did against France and
52:50try to get that second goal and at that point if they get that second goal Argentina has to throw everything so
52:58this game could open up in on average through those seven World Cups the World Cup final is just a tiny bit
53:07higher scoring than the other knockout games so I don't think we get like a discount for an under here so if
53:15anything I would lean towards an over but overall my play would be just kind of take Argentina as a little bit
53:23of a hedge since I have plus EV on that but mostly I'm just going to ride with my Spain future and
53:31then look to maybe make some live bets here maybe some high scoring bets as well just in terms of correct scores
53:40but I want to see where the market evolves because we're still so early in the week compared to where it settles
53:48for this World Cup final You from a live betting perspective let's say it's still in the first half it's a runaway
53:56early for Spain that's 2-0 what number would you need for Argentina to be enticed to go hit them live on the
54:05live market yeah well again as a as a spain future is better you could pretty much take any number because it's
54:13going to not a spain better and you're actually looking to try to make a plus ev bet here I think it
54:21would need to be pretty long I have Spain again 58% to win this and if they go up to nothing in
54:29the Argentina so they've played a much more difficult schedule than Argentina as a whole through the seven games and still have
54:38a better goal differential so I think I would need something pretty substantial and it depends to win the world cup Argentina
54:46would just need to make up two goals get it into extra time and see what happens from there so you're probably
54:54talking something like a plus 750 the one at minimum that I would need because I have Spain as such a stronger team Dr.
55:03Nick thank you appreciate it and this puts a cap on our world cup coverage thanks for taking the journey with us
55:12please hit us up with a five star rating and review we deeply appreciate that best of luck with all your bets
55:20action network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling problem help is available 24
55:287 at 1 800 gambler on the new podcast solita we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman I
55:36can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle I chose
55:45option B I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking
55:53anyone else first I'm on a mission to reclaim the word solita trading the pity for possibility listen to solita on the
56:01iHeartRadio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts I I'm Hoda Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
56:10You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
56:15Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
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57:12You hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
57:15We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
57:19The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
57:24I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
57:31I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
57:36Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
57:40And I guess I can share that, uh, no way.
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