2026 NFL Worst To First
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 28, 2026
Published
Fri, August 28, 2026
27
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
Fernando MendozaAaron RodgersAlvin KamaraBaker MayfieldBrock BowersCam WardCarnell TateChris OlaveDavid MontgomeryDenzel BostonDeshaun WatsonDrake MayeGeno SmithJacoby Brissett
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Rodgers
NegativeRole24:08
Brandon Anderson notes that Aaron Rodgers' status is currently certain, which he contrasts with the uncertainty surrounding other AFC North quarterbacks.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
NegativeInjury39:27
Alvin Kamara is already dealing with an injury, contributing to the broader health concerns surrounding the Saints' roster.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveProjection40:40
The Buccaneers are viewed as a strong division contender, with Baker Mayfield and the Todd Bowles-led defense providing a competitive edge in the NFC South.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveUsage30:25
Brandon Anderson identifies Brock Bowers as the Raiders' true WR1, projecting him to catch a high volume of passes and recommending him for fantasy football.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection27:10
Cam Ward has looked rough in the preseason and lacks metrics supporting hope for his sophomore year, though historical trends for sophomore quarterbacks show a 144% increase in wins on average.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
NegativeDepth Chart26:59
Carnell Tate was added to the Titans' skill player group, which still has a long way to go after finishing last in the league last year.
Insight pageChris Olave
NegativeInjury39:18
Health is a major concern for the Saints' receiving corps, including Chris Olave, as the team struggles with recurring injury issues.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeUsage47:16
The Lions' run game is considered downgraded following the loss of David Montgomery, with Pacheco expected to fill a different role.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
PositiveBreakout21:40
Brandon Anderson notes that Denzel Boston has received a lot of hype as part of the Browns' young receiving group.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeBust20:21
Brandon Anderson is highly critical of the Browns' quarterback situation, labeling Deshaun Watson as the leader of the league's 32nd-ranked quarterback room.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeProjection37:09
Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare needs to see more from Drake Maye before fully buying into the Patriots, noting that the team's 14-win season last year was inflated by a soft schedule.
Insight pageFernando Mendoza
NegativeProjection19:26
Historical data for number one overall pick quarterbacks since 2015 shows they average only 3.4 wins as rookies, with a maximum of six wins. While there is optimism for Mendoza, the team context is poor, and history suggests a slow start or a jump in performance only in later seasons.
Insight pagePositiveRole30:39
Brandon Anderson believes Fernando Mendoza is a nice fit for the Kubiak system and could potentially play earlier than expected.
Insight pageGeno Smith
NegativeProjection34:15
Geno Smith is a top-three accurate passer who has finished .500 or better in four of his six seasons as a starter, but he struggles under pressure and is 36 years old, leading to a QB21 ranking.
Insight pageJacoby Brissett
NegativeRole15:22
Brandon Anderson notes that while Jacoby Brissett is likely a career backup, he holds the all-time NFL record for lowest interception rate at 1.4%, providing a minor silver lining for the Cardinals.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeProjection60:00
Brandon Anderson expresses skepticism regarding the Philadelphia Eagles' outlook, specifically noting he has been low on Jalen Hurts, the coaching staff, and Nick Sirianni heading into the season.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeProjection47:22
Jared Goff's performance may be negatively impacted if the Lions' offensive line regresses and the team continues to struggle with injuries.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury39:23
Jordan Tyson is a key receiver for the Saints, but health is a major question mark for the entire team, including the receivers.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
NegativeRole30:44
Brandon Anderson describes Kirk Cousins as at least solid and a good fit for the system, noting he will likely start the year for the Raiders.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeRole24:06
Brandon Anderson notes that Lamar Jackson's status is currently uncertain, impacting the AFC North landscape.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveBreakout56:30
Malik Nabers is considered a top-10 receiver talent for the Giants and is now healthy, drawing comparisons to a young Terrell Owens.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveRole15:17
Brandon Anderson suggests there could be potential in the Cardinals' receiving corps, specifically mentioning Marvin Harrison Jr. as part of that group.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveRole15:17
Brandon Anderson suggests there could be potential in the Cardinals' receiving corps, specifically mentioning Michael Wilson as part of that group.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
PositiveRole30:32
Brandon Anderson notes that Ashen Gentry and Mike Washington form a strong one-two punch at running back for the Raiders.
Insight pageOmar Cooper Jr.
PositiveDepth Chart33:37
Omar Cooper was added in the first round as a weapon for the Jets' offense.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveRole15:13
Brandon Anderson identifies Trey McBride as a positive asset within the Cardinals' skill position group.
Insight pageWan'Dale Robinson
NegativeDepth Chart26:59
Wondale Robinson was added to the Titans' skill player group, which still has a long way to go after finishing last in the league last year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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2:12The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action, boss.
2:15Ready! Hey! All right, here we go. From the tent, throwing in zone.
2:19Spectacular catch! They're saying it's a catch! Touchdown! You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
2:25Oh my God! That's incredible! Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.
2:29All right? That is the ultimate kibosh. You want to bet?
2:33And we are under... Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings.
2:37I'm your host, Gilles Gallantz, and I'm joined by NFL betting expert and futures analyst, Brandon Anderson.
2:42Now, today we have a very special NFL episode.
2:44We have done rankings for pretty much every phase of a football team that goes on the football field.
2:50So, Brandon has ranked, you know, the offenses, defenses.
2:53But now, we're going to take a deep dive on the NFL divisions and NFL division markets and trying to find the
2:59worst of first angle to bet on, the best ones that we can get.
3:03So, that means we're looking for the teams that finish last in 2025 in their respective division, but that can rebound and win that division in 2026.
3:11Now, Brandon, you've had some great winners with this angle over the years.
3:15Talk to me a little bit about the approach of how we look at this market, some historical context, and what we
3:22need to consider before placing any bets. Yeah, it is finally Island Day here at Action Network.
3:27We're ready for it. We're excited. We have had a worst-to-first division winner in now 20 of the last 23 seasons.
3:33So, 87% of those seasons, about seven out of every eight, basically.
3:37You know the story, right? You get the season from hell.
3:40Everything goes wrong. You know, the guys get injured.
3:43You're losing all the coin flip games. Your pet's heads are falling off.
3:47You get the top draft pick. Everyone kind of writes them off.
3:50Oh, that team is terrible. And suddenly, it's January.
3:53You host a playoff game. You won the division.
3:56So, yeah, just a quick review. Like, over the last decade, we had the Cowboys go 4-12 to 13-3.
4:01Dak, Zeke, as rookies, it's been a minute now.
4:04But 2016, they flipped the script. They made it.
4:07The next year, we know about the NFC East.
4:09Went to the Eagles, 7-9 to Super Bowl champions.
4:12We had Bears and Texans the year after that, both in one year worst-to-first.
4:16Washington. 2021, we had the Bengals go worst-to-first all the way to the Super Bowl.
4:21And then, recent years, we've had a lot of success.
4:24Last year, Jaguars, 8-1 were a winner we gave out here at Action Network.
4:28The next year, Texans Island, 11-1 and the double down.
4:31Nobody in 2024. But last year on this podcast, Bears Island, Bear Down, plus 550, and the double down as well.
4:37So, each year, we're trying to find who is the team that's going to go worst-to-first and who's the right bet, which is an important distinction.
4:45It's not just trying to get the win, but how do we get the best profit off of this?
4:51So, since we got the new division format with the eight divisions, four teams each, that was 2002.
4:56We've had 30 teams go worst-to-first. So, it's 1.25 per year.
4:59So, we basically can expect there should be somebody.
5:02Now, look, at some books, you can just bet on any team goes worst-to-first.
5:06Fair odds of that by that number I just gave you is basically like minus 700.
5:11You can bet this at DraftKings, our sponsor. You can just bet any team worst-to-first yes, minus 210.
5:16That's 68%. We're implied 87% historically. You can just stop listening and go bet that if you want.
5:22But don't do that. Don't stop listening because we're going to give you a better winner.
5:26Why get a bet minus 210 when we can get a plus number in front of that?
5:31If you hate all this, by the way, then no is there too, plus 170.
5:36So, if you listen to the whole thing today, we can sell you on anybody.
5:40You can go on that side. And look, it is, I think, a particularly tough crop of options.
5:46But look, they all finish last every year. That's the whole point of the exercise.
5:50So, we're going to just go through. And I rank the teams from 8 to 1 on not necessarily most and least likely to win the division.
5:58But who are we betting? Who is the team that can win and is a good bet at the number?
6:04We'll obviously go like the podcast is called, from worst-to-first.
6:07So, we'll start at the bottom. Okay. So, 8 teams to look at.
6:11As you just mentioned, we're going to go worst-to-first.
6:14Worst options right to the best options. So, let's start in Tier 5.
6:18This one is called No Way, No How. Your number 8 ranked team to finish first in their division after finishing worst is the Arizona Cardinals.
6:25And right now, I'm seeing odds for them around 100-1 to win the NFC West.
6:30Wow. Okay. So, we have 8 teams that, you know, this is the bottom of the barrel, right?
6:35Like that we're looking at that finished last year.
6:38By this logic, if they're the bottom of the 8 worst teams, would this make them the worst team in football at this point?
6:45You know, not necessarily. Again, with this exercise, it's a lot about context.
6:49When you're looking for an island, you got to check the archipelago also.
6:53What else is out there? Take a look around.
6:55How's the water out here? How are the other islands?
6:58Well, the other islands around Arizona, they're big and thriving and awesome.
7:02And Arizona's island is taking water. So, look around.
7:05You got the defending Super Bowl champions, the Seahawks.
7:07That's one of them in the division. You got the Super Bowl favorite, Rams, also there.
7:12And then, oh, that's right, the 49ers who win year after year.
7:16And we've talked a lot about legacy with them.
7:18Shanahan, for all that we give them crap for, four NFC championship games in nine seasons there.
7:24So, that is our top two offenses in the rankings.
7:27Not just in the division. In football, that's two of our top five defenses.
7:31That's three of my top five overall teams heading into the year.
7:34That's the division. You got to beat all of them.
7:37So, that's not great. It's arguably the three best teams in the NFC as the entire division.
7:42That's not just six games against those teams. You've got to win enough of those and pass all three of those teams.
7:49You need, like, the bear case for all three teams.
7:52And you need this huge explosive team to come out of the Cardinals.
7:56And it's just, it's too big when I ask for a man.
7:59Beyond that, the schedule for Arizona is brutal. You start out double-digit underdog against the Chargers.
8:04Okay, fine. Maybe the Chargers beat you fair enough.
8:07Okay, well, keep looking. Here's the first 11 weeks.
8:09You get five division games against all those teams we just said.
8:13And you play the Lions and the Cowboys and the Broncos and the Chiefs.
8:17Through 11 weeks, Jill, this team right now is at least a touchdown underdog in every single game.
8:23And they're double digits in most of those games.
8:25So, just from the start, you have a team that didn't even really try to find a quarterback.
8:31And you've got this awful schedule out of the gates, as tough as anybody.
8:35I don't know how you think anything other than, like, two and nine at week 11.
8:40And how do you go from there to worst to first?
8:43Yeah. And given the NFC West and the schedule, it's a pretty tough road.
8:47Like, not a really great ecosystem that yields itself to thinking about positives.
8:51But there has to be something that you're feeling a little bit positive about with the Cardinals.
8:56Like, when we did the skill position rankings, for example, you were pretty high on that.
9:01Yeah. So, the skill positions, we like. I love Jeremiah Love.
9:04Love the running back room. The left side of the line, pretty good.
9:08We'll just not talk about the right side. But you can always run to the left side.
9:13Trey McBride, we like him. I kind of like the receivers still.
9:17I know you're not as sold. But Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., I think there could be something there.
9:22Jacoby Brissette, probably a career backup. But did you know that he's actually the all-time NFL leader in interception rate at only 1.4%.
9:29So, no mistakes. Hey, that's pretty good. If you're going to find some silver linings just not turning the ball over all
9:36the time, that's a good place to start. The defense, we talked about.
9:40Walter Nolan, Will Johnson, there's some talent over there.
9:42Mike LaFleur, yeah, maybe. His name is LaFleur. That could work out.
9:46We like Nick Rallis on defense. They're probably not as bad as they looked last year.
9:51I think this is not necessarily the worst team in the league.
9:54They won three games. By a lot of the underlying metrics, they probably deserve more like five and a half wins.
10:00So, I don't think this is a terrible, terrible team.
10:03I think it's a bad team in a terrible, terrible spot in the division.
10:08Well, we're going to move on from the Cardinals because I don't think you and I – but I just have to
10:14ask about the odds because, again, 100 to 1.
10:17I mean, if you listen to Kevin Malone from The Office, you always take a 100 to 1 bet.
10:22Should we take a nibble even for five, ten bucks?
10:25Yeah. I mean, you always take the 100 to 1.
10:28You always try to win the M&Ms in your mouth contest at the Office Olympics, too.
10:33But the reason I'm not taking the 100 – look, I can argue with 100 to 1.
10:38That's pretty good logic by you, Kevin Malone, whoever else wants to do it.
10:42Football is a weird sport, man. 100 to 1.
10:45You can just blind bet that anytime and you're probably going to have the odds slightly in your favor.
10:51The problem is the schedule is so bad and the division is so good that I don't even think this is our last chance.
10:58Like, I think there's a real chance, Jill, that by sometime in September, this is going to be like 250 to 1.
11:05Like, we're going to start at 0-3 with losses to, I think, Seattle and I forget, one of the other division opponents, the Rams or Niners.
11:12And now we're 0-3 and one of those teams are maybe two or three and 0.
11:17Now we'll take a nibble because 250 to 1 with, like, four months to go still will take – we're going to get other shots here.
11:25If you want to take, like, you know, not even a pizza money, give me a slice of New York pizza money,
11:31throw that on there, 100 to 1. I think we can get even better odds if we wait a little bit.
11:38All right, 99 cent bet. All right, let's move now to tier 4.
11:42You have two teams in this tier. This tier is called Hard to See It, especially in those divisions.
11:47And at number 7, we're going to start with the Cleveland Browns, seeing right now best price for them to win that division around 23 to 1.
11:55Now, if anybody has been listening to these ranking pods that we have done, thank you for listening.
12:01But first thing that you would probably see is that we shat on the Browns quite a bit, especially like any phase
12:07of football when they were either bottom 5 or bottom 10.
12:10Give us a little refresher on how you're feeling about the Browns coming into this season.
12:15Yeah, Browns fans put on those earmuffs for a minute here.
12:19It's about to get ugly. Number 32 at quarterback.
12:21Somehow starting Deshaun Watson in the year of our Lord 2026.
12:24We'll see how long that goes. You love a starting quarterback that your defense says, well, if he's not great by week
12:313 home opener, maybe we'll try Shadir. Great. So happy to hear that.
12:35Number 32 offensive line. So you're the worst quarterback and the worst offensive line.
12:39If you remember, Jill, the best news I could tell you about the offensive line is that they're returning no starters from last year.
12:46We like continuity on the line. We like that the Browns have no continuity.
12:50That's how bad it's gotten there. Add that up and you get the number 32 offense.
12:55Look, kind of like some of those young receivers they brought in.
12:59Casey Concepcion's look pretty good. Denzel Boston got a lot of hype.
13:02But good luck to Todd Munkin. Like you got your work cut out working around basically no quarterback and no blocking.
13:09And even if we like Todd Munkin calling the plays, it was a bottom five coaching staff for me as bottom five skill players.
13:16And we didn't even do this as a podcast, but hilariously, bottom of the league special teams.
13:21They were 31st last year. I have them 32nd.
13:24They were ungodly bad at punting. They're bad at kickoffs.
13:27They couldn't return kicks or punts. And they brought everyone back.
13:30They're just like, sure, that seems fine. Let's do that again.
13:33We had them all the way up at 26 in defense.
13:36So that's the silver lining on the team is not being what is that bottom six or seven on defense.
13:42But even that could get bad. No Miles Garrett and no Jim Schwartz out the door.
13:47So this is my worst team in football. This is number 32.
13:51They are a full point to the spread worse than any other team.
13:55They're eight points worse than a neutral team. That would make them, Jill, week one underdogs in Los Angeles at the Rams by 18 points on my model.
14:03So it's real bad. It's real, real bad. And they have every incentive to tank for the number one pick and a quarterback.
14:10That's the Browns. So why wouldn't they just be in the last year then with Arizona?
14:15Guys, I mean, I don't. It doesn't sound like any optimistic news coming out of Cleveland.
14:19Yeah, again, it's the surroundings. It's at least more palatable, the surroundings here.
14:23And I think if you're looking at the division, you could make a decent case that this is the best you could
14:30feel as a Browns fan in the division in years.
14:33Because the Ravens and Steelers finally are in transition, right?
14:36New coaches, no Harbaugh, no Tomlin. The Bengals did not get a new coach.
14:40That's just as good of news. We got Zach Taylor running it back.
14:44That seems fine for Cleveland. Lamar Jackson, he's uncertain right now.
14:47Aaron Rodgers is certain right now. That's not great.
14:50The Bengals still don't play a lot of defense.
14:52The Browns actually faced the third easiest schedule in the first half of the season by DVOA.
14:57Though they are at Jacksonville, at Tampa to start out in the Florida heat.
15:02Don't love that for them. But there are some cases here you can make on if you just ignore everything about the Browns and look at the setting.
15:10The ecosystem is bettable. But frankly, I don't think it's as good as it looks.
15:14I still think the Ravens could be good as anyone in the AFC.
15:18The Bengals has something that Bengals with their offense, the Steelers with their defense, are playoff contenders.
15:23I can't blame you if you want to look at the ecosystem.
15:27But 23-1, not for me now with this garbage roster.
15:30Yeah, morally as well, I cannot recommend a Deshaun Watson-led Cleveland Browns offense here.
15:34All right. That was number seven, Cleveland Browns. Number six, Las Vegas Raiders.
15:38We're seeing right now, best prize right now, 30-1 to win the division.
15:42So not so much like the AFC North, but the AFC West just loaded, man.
15:46Like Broncos, Chargers, they made the playoffs last year.
15:49They're expected to contend. We didn't even talk about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
15:53Like, is that pretty much where the problem starts and ends for the Raiders?
15:57For sure. You know, the Raiders and Browns, they like to come up often in this podcast that we're doing.
16:03Their mainstays annually in the worst-to-first division rankings, which means you're not going to first.
16:08You're staying in the worst. But part of that is the division.
16:11And look, here we have no juggernaut necessarily, but two of our top 10 offenses.
16:16That was the Chargers and the Chiefs. Hopefully the Chargers will see how that works out.
16:21Two of our top 10 defenses, the Chiefs and the Broncos.
16:24So that right there, that's six tough games. Six games where you are a clear underdog.
16:29And again, three teams, you've got to pass to get ahead of those.
16:33Even if Mendoza is good, Mendoza still got to beat Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
16:37And look, even Bo Nix is 24-10. So you're at a quarterback deficit.
16:41Even if Clint Kubiak is good. I like Clint Kubiak.
16:44Great. Andy Reid, Sean Payton, and Jim Harbaugh are the other coaches in the division.
16:48So you're starting at a deficit here. They also lose Patrick Graham from the staff defensively.
16:53That's a big loss. Rob Leonard, very big unknown there.
16:56So even the things you can kind of talk yourself into, and we'll get into why I like some of the things.
17:03Even those, you're still fighting uphill against better versions right there in the division.
17:07Okay. But let's talk about that. Like why there's some positivity with the Raiders.
17:11Because we talked about the Cardinals. Even as much as we are not high on them winning the NFC West, there were
17:18some things that you could maybe feel great about.
17:20Or even feel at least a little positive about.
17:23What's that for the Raiders? Yeah, well, let's start with week one.
17:27Home against the Dolphins. The Raiders are favored in week one.
17:30So that's a pretty good place to start. They might go 1-0.
17:33Then it's Chargers and the Saints. The Chargers are not healthy yet.
17:37Are the Chargers ever healthy? The Saints, they're in the list.
17:40We're going to talk about them. You could go 2-1.
17:43You could go 3-0. That is not completely inconceivable for this team.
17:47So it's a pretty good place to start no matter what the rest of the division is doing.
17:52And I kind of don't hate this roster. I think it's more bad than awful.
17:57Some things to like. The offensive line, I think, is going to be better this year.
18:02Colton Miller, left tackle. He's really good. Really underrated.
18:04I think played only four games last year. Getting him back.
18:07Getting Tyler Lindenbaum, the center that they went out and paid a lot of money for.
18:12Those guys with Kubiak, I think, can actually be toward league average on the line.
18:17There's some real weapons, too. We talked about that.
18:19There's a lot to talk about in fantasy football.
18:22Who's the wide receiver one? Is it Trey Tucker?
18:25Is it Jack Bash? No, stupid. It's Brock Bowers.
18:27Brock Bowers is the wide receiver one. He's going to catch so many passes.
18:32You want him in fantasy. Ashen Gentry and Mike Washington look like a really good one-two running back punch as long as Gentry gets healthy again.
18:39And then I do think Mendoza is a really nice fit in the Kubiak system.
18:44And Kirk Cousins, we know, is at least solid.
18:47And he's a great fit in that system. We'll probably start the year at least for a while.
18:52So this actually is my 20th ranked offense. Outside of the Lions, who are one of these worst-to-first teams, we'll get to them.
18:59They're kind of obviously the best team of our eight.
19:02Outside of that, I think you can make the case that offenses and defenses, this is the one unit, the offense here, that maybe has the highest upside.
19:10So I think you can make at least a quality upside case for the Raiders.
19:15All right, last question about the Raiders then, because you just talked about the offense.
19:19Clint Kubiak coming in, Fernando Mendoza, I think he might play earlier than people think.
19:24I'm not in on Kirk Cousins at this point.
19:26So the question more has to do with Mendoza.
19:29Like what if he comes in and he's rock solid from the jump?
19:33Is that something worth being positive about where they could potentially win the division?
19:37I think it's possible. And we have seen Kubiak elevate these quarterbacks lately, but it's not likely.
19:42And history is the reason why. So number one pick quarterbacks have been rough as rookies.
19:47If you look back since 2015, which was Jameis Winston, forgot he was the number one pick, didn't we?
19:52We've now had 10 quarterbacks go since Jameis, number one overall.
19:56Those 10 guys have averaged 3.4 wins as a rookie.
19:59I know if you remember this, but we play 17 games in a season.
20:033.4 wins is not a lot out of 17.
20:06That includes Joe Burrow, two wins. Trevor Lawrence, three wins.
20:09Jared Goff, zero. Burrow, nothing. The max is actually Jameis and Baker with six.
20:13So all these number one quarterbacks are getting six wins.
20:16Now that doesn't even mean these guys are bad.
20:18Burrow is a good quarterback. Lawrence is a good quarterback.
20:21Goff wins a lot of games now. But you're joining a bad, bad, bad team.
20:26You're the number one pick for a reason. That's why you got the pick there.
20:30So there is reason for optimism, but I think it takes time.
20:34I think this is a late season offense jump maybe, or maybe a next season offense jump.
20:39Count me in early on maybe Raiders Island next year, worst or first on the podcast.
20:44I can think about that. But number 31 ranking in our defense, not really any talent there outside of Max Crosby.
20:50Bottom five special teams last year, even though they did make some changes.
20:54But you're starting at a real deficit here across the board.
20:57And if you are a day trader, if you want to listen to this podcast and buy some stock at 30 to
21:041 now, maybe get that 3-0 start. That's fine.
21:06Just don't forget to sell. You don't want the stock all the way down to the end of the season.
21:12You want to get in early and then sell in a few weeks.
21:16I like that. Prediction markets, you can make some nice profit there.
21:20That's about it for me on the Raiders. Football season is here, folks.
21:24And if you don't already have the Action Network app, now is the time.
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25:21DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, let's move to tier three.
25:25We've got two teams in this tier. You've called this one the Lloyd Christmas Special.
25:30You're telling me there's a chance. And at number five, you have the Tennessee Titans, the team that was on this list last year.
25:37You have them at plus 950 to win the division.
25:40I'll be honest, I'm a bit surprised that this team lasted this long.
25:44I thought they might be closer to the Browns and Cardinals as far as tiers go.
25:48But talk to me about this because a lot of the time when we were doing the rankings, man, it was difficult
25:55to find anything positive about the Titans. Yeah, honestly, going into this like three weeks ago before I did all the deep
26:01dives on the rankings, I would have thought the Titans would be higher up on this list because we'll get to the division in a minute.
26:09But it just seemed like a good place to start here.
26:12This is really hard to get excited about this collection of players and coaches.
26:17So on my roster's matrix, I kind of keep track.
26:20All the rankings we've done, I even go like more minuscule from there.
26:24Like I'm breaking down the skill players into running back rankings and receiver rankings and tight end rankings all the way down.
26:30And on my spreadsheet, I rank everything from zero to four with decimals.
26:34And if you're above average, it lights up green.
26:37If you're below average, it lights up red. And out of 32 NFL teams, offense and defense, so 64 units, there's one
26:43in the entire NFL where the entire unit is red bad.
26:46Guess what? It's the Titans. It's the Titans offense.
26:49There's nothing good about the Titans offense. There's everything bad about them.
26:53The offensive line, we rank second lowest. We like Peter Skaronsky.
26:56We don't like anything else there. It's not come together.
26:59They're the skill players. You added Carnell Tate. You added Wondale Robinson.
27:03You have a long way to go. They were dead last year.
27:06They're up to 30th now. Cam Ward, you pass the eye test.
27:10We can be optimism about last year's number one.
27:12He looks rough, man. It's not been great in the preseason.
27:16If you look at any metric you find last year, not a lot of reason for hope right now.
27:21It's a long way to go. I kind of think this is just a year two rookie situation for him where he
27:28just kind of had a lost year. But offensively, it's really rough so far.
27:32And then we even get to the coaches. Robert Sala, offensive coordinator Brian Dable, defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
27:37Let me say them again. Robert Sala, Brian Dable, and Gus Bradley.
27:41The unholy tridumvirate of coaches. Just pure rage bait as if you're trying to hire the coaching staff to make me the most angry possible.
27:49So here we have the number 30 offense on my rankings overall.
27:52Coaches that I don't like at all. And that terrible offense, by the way, starts out against Jets, Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Texans.
27:59All top 18 defenses in my matrix. Three of the top six defenses.
28:03Good luck starting with that, Tennessee Titans. Okay, well, I'm trying to figure out how we have the Titans in the middle of the pack.
28:10Because, again, so far through these teams, I ask you for a positive.
28:14And I'm like, are we sure that's positive? So for me, when I look at the Titans, I think they're probably the – correct me if I'm wrong.
28:22But I think part of the reason why we have them not necessarily last, like with the Cardinals, is because of being in the AFC South.
28:30And how some of these teams have very apparent weaknesses.
28:33Am I close for that? Definitely. Look, that's why I expected this team to be higher is because, you know, look back at the top.
28:40We talked about who we've been hitting as we get some of these worst to first.
28:45Texans Island. One year after Jaguars Island. We love the AFC South.
28:49We love worst to first because this division is just wide open every year, it seems like.
28:54I think maybe a little less so, though, now.
28:57Houston, pretty good. Our number one defense. D'Amico Ryan's double-digit wins all three years.
29:01Pretty solid floor there for Houston. And even with the offense as bad as it is, that's kind of the floor version of the offense.
29:08So that team is going to be tough. The Jacksonville Jaguars.
29:11They were above average offense and defense in the rankings.
29:14They were in our Tier 2 coaching staff. I think that team might actually be pretty solid now.
29:20The Colts, slightly lower, but I think they're at least an average team.
29:24They're top three offensive line. There's a lot of floor-raising stuff around the division now.
29:28I think it's not quite as bad as it used to be.
29:32The other South division, we'll get to that one over in the NFC.
29:36But the AFC South, I think, is actually like a pretty solid competitive division now.
29:40Frankly, if the Titans were a little better, it could actually be the best division in the AFC by how competitive it is.
29:47So with Tennessee, we do like some things. The defense.
29:50The defense seems kind of fine. I had them 21st in the rankings.
29:54Jeffrey Simmons, an absolute superstar. Overlooked last year because it's the Titans.
29:57But I thought he was like a top five defensive player.
30:01This team was pretty good defensively until last year.
30:03They were 17th to 19th in three straight years by DVOA.
30:07I think they'd probably get back there. Robert Sala, not my head coaching choice, but pretty good coaching up the defense.
30:13So I think the defense can at least be fine.
30:16Also, the Titans featured on last year's podcast here.
30:19We predicted big leap in special teams. They were dead last two years ago.
30:23They jumped to seventh last year. John Fassel, the special teams coach.
30:26Top 10 unit on special teams, six straight. Special teams coaches matter.
30:30Those guys know what they're doing. I have this as a top five special teams.
30:34That can win you a game or two over the course of a season.
30:39And then a couple other notes here. We just gave out that quarterback stat on the last team, warning you about Fernando Mendoza.
30:45Number one quarterback, rookie year. It doesn't work out.
30:48Well, it's not the rookie year for Cam Ward.
30:51Cam won three games last year. We said the average number one pick wins 3.2.
30:55So right on pace, that same set of guys, sophomore year, 8.3 wins.
30:59Pretty huge jump. 144% increase. Joe Burrow, two wins up to 10.
31:03Lawrence, three to nine. Goff, zero to 11. We just did last year in this podcast.
31:07Caleb Williams, five wins up to 11. Worst to first.
31:10Six of the eight quarterbacks went to eight wins or better.
31:14That's going to put you in the mix here.
31:16Cam Ward starting lower. So at three wins, that would get him up to like seven, 7.3 wins.
31:22I think there's actually a lot of reasons. I think the Titans should be improved.
31:26I would just, at the end of the day, rather go over 6.5 wins plus money.
31:31I can get there. Getting to the division where the division's gotten a lot better and a lot of floor raises.
31:37I don't think I can quite get there now.
31:40It's going to be tough to get me excited to bet on this team with the talent and the coaching staff of it all.
31:47I think over 6.5 I can buy, but even at under 10 to 1 odds on this group and a division that
31:54I think is actually kind of solid now, it's too much for me.
31:58Okay. Eight minutes on the AFC South. Let's see if we can wake up our listeners from their slumers.
32:03The AFC South is such a sleepy division sometimes, but the volatility is what makes it fun to bet year over year.
32:10Let's talk about the AFC East now, the New York Jets.
32:13They're your fourth ranked team. Seeing odds right now around 50 to 1 to win the AFC East.
32:18Make the case because when we did the rankings, I was not high.
32:22And the fact that they've got the Bills and the Patriots both in their division, it can't just be as simple as
32:29what they get to play Miami twice. Yeah, I mean, they do get to play Miami twice.
32:34That's a good start for two wins. But I kind of think the defense could be sort of good here.
32:40I know this is a defense that finished near the bottom of a lot of rankings I've seen out there.
32:46I have them close to the league average. You lose Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, Quince Williams.
32:51Those guys are gone. You bring in Minka Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, David Onyemata, some good players there.
32:56David Bailey, maybe finally the pass rusher this team has lacked for years.
33:00And now Aaron Glenn. Sauce as a head coach, but pretty good call and plays.
33:04He calls that his superpower. That's him leading the defense again, I think is your top reason for optimism.
33:10And I know we keep saying it. Special teams.
33:12Get to know the name Chris Banjo. The Jets were the number one special teams team last year.
33:18They were elite punting and kicking. They had crazy good kick and punt returns.
33:22That doesn't always carry over, but that should be at least a talented above average group that can help you out.
33:28Offensively, you got a lot of talent there. Brees Hall, Garrett Wilson.
33:32Guys that haven't matched up to what we want them as fantasy players because it's been a tough situation.
33:37But a lot of talent there. Sadiq and Omar Cooper in round one this year as weapons.
33:43Fashanu and Mambu round one the last two years at tackle.
33:46Offensive line's invested a lot. There's a lot of potential here on this team, at least starting out.
33:51Okay. So I'm going to pivot to this. I just want to, because you just brought up this trinity of coaches and
33:58impact players with the Titans that you were completely sour on.
34:01I'm with Robert Sala, Gus Bradley, Brian Dable. But now you're trying to talk me into another trio that I just am like no frigging way.
34:09And that is Frank Reich, Aaron Glenn, and Gino Smith.
34:12So here we go. Make the case. I'm telling you, man.
34:15I still think Gino is good. At least Gino was good.
34:18I don't know if he still is good. He's a top three accurate passer.
34:23He's actually finished 500 or better four of his six seasons as a starter.
34:27Look, one of them was not last year. I'll give you that one.
34:31He can be very inconsistent. He struggles under pressure.
34:33We need him to not face the pressure he did last year with the Raiders this year.
34:38That's why he was awful. He is 36 years old.
34:41Maybe he's just cooked. But I did tuck myself into QB21.
34:45That's that kind of Goff and Nixon Darnold type group.
34:48It cannot reflect the ecosystem if it's good enough.
34:50So can it be good enough? I don't know.
34:53Frank Reich is a tough sell for me. I'll admit that.
34:56Aaron Glenn as head coach. I don't know about that part either.
35:00We will see. He's a coach that fires both the coordinators so they don't take the fall themselves.
35:05Frank Reich last two NFL offenses finished bottom two by DVOA and then immediately got better after he left.
35:11But Reich has had some pretty quality teams in the past.
35:14And I always think there's a difference too between we fire coaches that have been good but then not great because we
35:21want the team to take the next step. Sometimes those guys can be floor raisers.
35:25They can at least get you to a point.
35:28And the Jets need to start with the floor, not the ceiling.
35:31And like you said, you get the Dolphins twice.
35:34You get the Titans in week one. We already talked about the Titans.
35:38You get the Robert Sala revenge game in week one.
35:41So hopefully the Jets get revenge on Sala, not the other way around.
35:45So, you know, that's at least a few wins, right?
35:48Well, that being said, so let's say hypothetically Jets beat the Dolphins twice.
35:52You know who else gets to play the Dolphins twice?
35:55The Patriots and Bill. So there's probably two wins already in the bag for them as well.
36:00So like what, how does that help then for the division?
36:03Just talk me into that. Or maybe should we even be pivoting maybe to like the win total?
36:08Yeah, I do like the Jets over five point five and a half wins.
36:13I think that's a little bit low. A lot of markings of a team that should improve.
36:18If you remember this team somehow managed to for the first time in NFL history have zero interceptions last year.
36:24Like you can't do that again. If you tried, they finished minus 19 on turnovers.
36:28They were bottom two on the red zone offense and defense last year.
36:32Like you can't help but improve those things. They just have to be a little better.
36:37And look, I had the Jets lower. I had them basically down in the Cardinals grouping when I started this exercise.
36:43But as we went through, I didn't necessarily get so much higher on the Jets.
36:47I did get a little lower on those top two teams, especially the Bills.
36:52We talked about them a lot, especially in the defensive podcast.
36:55Bottom 10 defense for me, not a coaching staff I believe in and switching off of McDermott.
37:00Bottom five special teams there with Buffalo. I think that is a vulnerable team.
37:04I like the Patriots more, especially defensively. But I got to see Drake may do it again.
37:09They last year won 14 games, but the metric said you deserve 10 wins.
37:13And that was against that soft schedule we talked about all year long.
37:17And there are a lot of under, a lot of regression trends telling you the Patriots come down a little bit.
37:24So maybe 10 wins is enough. Maybe we get there.
37:27And here's the real case. Jets are 50 to 1.
37:30We just said I can't fault you for Cardinals 100 to 1.
37:3350 to 1 is half of that, but still a really long number.
37:37Week 1, Jets-Titans. Jets want to know. Maybe. Week 1, Bills at Texans.
37:41Patriots at Seahawks. Okay, two weeks from now, heading into week 2, you might be sitting on the division-leading New York Jets.
37:47And it won't be 50 to 1 anymore. And you have some options there.
37:52I'm going to give you my first official bet of the year.
37:55I'm taking it, Joe. Give me the Jets 50 to 1.
37:58Just a nibble. Just a little bit. Sure. I think that is the wrong price.
38:03And I think this is a team that is worth investing at least for a week.
38:08And we'll see what happens from there. All right.
38:10We've got some movement here. Some bets to be tracked in the Action app.
38:15All right. So that was Tier 3. You have the Tennessee Titans at 5.
38:19New York Jets at 4. We're moving now to Tier 2.
38:22And you've called this one most likely, but it doesn't necessarily equate to a best bet.
38:27So number 3, you have the New Orleans Saints.
38:29Very popular sleeper right now. But still, even despite that, they are around plus 270 to win the division.
38:35Honestly, man, I wanted to be out on the Saints.
38:38I still think that's probably the Bucs division to win.
38:41But given the rankings and how we've discussed the Saints and where they're falling in the pecking order, you're kind of surprised
38:48what the quality of this team could be. Yeah, they kind of surprised me along the way.
38:53I kept thinking I'd be out. And then you do the units.
38:56You look at the overall picture. The Saints could be like kind of not terrible, which is a pretty good start for them.
39:03Invested a lot on the line. David Andrews, big signing.
39:06Four top two round starters next to him on the line.
39:09You get Tyler Schuch, who had a pretty good finish to this season.
39:13I'm not sold yet. I still need to see more in the pocket of presence.
39:18He had some moments, though, for sure. You got Olave and Jordan Tyson.
39:22You got to get those guys healthy. Health is the big, big, big question mark on this team, right?
39:27The receivers, Tyler Schuch. Kamara's already hurt. The offensive line always gets hurt.
39:31The defense is kind of old. But the defense is pretty good.
39:35Other than the Lions, this is the only unit on the podcast that ranked top half of the league in my rankings.
39:41They were 14th under Brandon Staley. They were 13th last year.
39:45The run defense took a big step forward. I don't think the Saints are good, but they might not have to be in NFC South, right?
39:52Well, and you look at the standings even from last year.
39:56If just like one or two of those games had gone a little differently, they're probably winning the division.
40:01Because I remember talking about them like around like week 14.
40:05Like, is this the team that could end up coming out of it?
40:09And then Carolina just kind of swooped in there at the end.
40:12But the NFC South in general, like, I mean, last year Panthers won at 8-9, rather.
40:17So I think it probably has to start and stop the fact that this division, there's just no real juggernaut, you know?
40:23Yeah, the division is in the Saints' favor, but it is not necessarily in betters' favor.
40:28So let me explain what I mean by that.
40:31So nothing good to say about the Falcons or Panthers, right?
40:34Add them bottom 10 offense, bottom 10 defense, bottom six overall.
40:37I think this is two teams going for the division.
40:40I like the Bucs. We've talked a lot about the Bucs.
40:44We kept sneaking them in to the top grouping of tiers, as you commented with Baker, the Todd Bowles defense.
40:50I like the Bucs a lot, actually. But no question, even if you like the Bucs comparatively, this is the most winnable division.
40:57This is the one you want to be in.
40:59Unfortunately, sportsbooks have also noticed that. And price of the Saints at plus 270.
41:03Plus 270 is not a juicy number. That is a 27% implied ticket.
41:07And that's just not all that exciting. I still have the Bucs about three points better on a neutral field.
41:13So I definitely prefer that team. And the Bucs are plus 185.
41:17So you're at less than a plus 100 difference there.
41:20The Bucs are 35% implied. That team is the better offense and the better defense.
41:24Maybe the better coaching staff. I like the Saints coaching staff.
41:28But if Zach Robinson is good, I think that works out well with Bulls defensively.
41:32You've got a winnable schedule for the Bucs. Winnable opening schedule for the Saints.
41:36Top first seven games, I think, are winnable. The Saints are better, but I still have the Saints 25th best in the NFL.
41:43That puts them ahead of the Falcons and the Panthers.
41:46But 25th is the Jets. It's the Raiders. That's basically their peers right now.
41:50So you can be better and be one of those teams and be in this division.
41:55You're in the mix now. The Bucs probably are going to be my favorite division bet.
42:00If they're that close to the Saints in the odds, but I like the Bucs a lot better, I'm going to take the plus 185 on Tampa.
42:08This is not my division winner. And so even though the Saints are more likely to win it because the division, they
42:14also become a bad ticket for betters at plus 270.
42:17If you like the Saints, I get it. I think you just do game to game.
42:22I think you bet them against the Bucs when they play and you get better profit on your money that way.
42:28Yeah, that's a good suggestion. Again, the odds have to still justify the bet, right?
42:33Like, I mean, we can like the Saints, but if the price isn't there, then we have to kind of pivot at that point.
42:40Um, let's now move to the NFC North because I'm sure that this is probably going to be the team that a
42:47lot of people think is the most popular to go worst to first in the division, just given the talent they have.
42:53And that's the Detroit Lions. And they're right now around plus 170 at DraftKings to win that division.
42:59And like we said, like year over year, there's always that one team that I think everybody points to the Lions.
43:05It's this year, uh, 49ers last year, or even the Bengals, uh, the year before.
43:09Uh, but I do think it's worth mentioning, like, even though those were the popular choices, they didn't end up winning the division.
43:16So is that kind of where we're at with the Lions now?
43:20Yeah, I think so. And I think it's, again, it's about the number that you're getting here at plus 170.
43:26And look, there's no question. The Lions are the most likely division winner out of these eight teams.
43:31Like they're the best team by far out of these eight teams.
43:35Even though I've been a lot of Lions skeptic, as we've done all these rankings, I still have them ranked top half
43:41the league offense and defense and special teams. I only have three other teams in the NFL like that.
43:47Baltimore, Kansas City, and Jacksville plus Detroit. So even if I'm skeptical, it's still a good team.
43:52We know Dan Campbell is good. We've already seen even the injured versions of these teams be good.
43:57And there's some positive regression should be coming. They were a last place team, but they were nine and eight.
44:03Think about that. They were, we knew this at the time, but they had a better record in last place than all
44:10of the entire NFC South, that division we just got done with.
44:13And they probably deserve 10 wins by the metrics.
44:16They were top 10 DVOA team last year. They were the most injured team in the league defensively by adjusted games loss.
44:23Hopefully that gets better. Not off to a good start.
44:26We'll talk about that in a second. They had terrible, terrible fumble luck last year.
44:30They recovered 29% of their fumbles. Basically that's a coin flip historically.
44:34So that is a really, really low number. The Lions are a good football team.
44:38I wanted to really be out on this team, but I think maybe even they might be the right division favorite.
44:44Just plus 170 is something else altogether. Well, and it's not often that you get a nine and eight team that gets to have a last place schedule.
44:53You know what I mean? So the fact that right now that's really aiding it.
44:57So when people see that plus 170, I don't think they're going to be scared off of it.
45:03Maybe the way that me and you might have some trepidation about it, but how should we approach the lines?
45:09Like, should we bet them here at plus 170?
45:11Cause they feel like the best option out of the group.
45:15So I thought honestly that I was going to come in here betting on the lions to not win the division, right?
45:21We can do that now with prediction markets out there.
45:24I thought that was going to be the play, but then you look at the schedule and man, is this like the
45:31juiciest last place schedule you've ever seen? They have eight games against saints, jets, Panthers, Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons, Titans, Giants, holy bottom of the league, poopoo platter.
45:39That's eight games. That's already a winning record. If you win those eight games, each team on the schedule, you get three variable games, right?
45:46Against your division. Everyone else gets the exact same schedule, but you have three games that are different from one another based on being last place.
45:54The Detroit lions get the giants, Cardinals, Titans as their three games.
45:57Let me make a comparison for you. Here's who the Packers got Cowboys, Rams, Texans, instead of giants, Cardinals, Titans.
46:03Here's who the bears got Eagles, Seahawks, Jaguars, instead of giants, Cardinals, Titans.
46:07That's a huge swing, right? That's like two or three wins different just there on the schedule.
46:12I'm so mad about this as a Vikings fan, stupid team goes on a five game win streak to end last season.
46:19Maybe I already blew the division last year because of it.
46:22This was supposed to be a Vikings worst of first.
46:25And I'll tell you, listen on the feed with my division preview with Stucky, the Vikings are my division bet at plus five, 10.
46:32I think that is the way to go in part because this division is so tough.
46:37I have this whole division projected between 9.7 and 10.3 wins.
46:40So the entire thing is a half a win apart from top to bottom.
46:45So even if you like the Lions best, you can't do that at plus 170, 37% implied.
46:50If those teams are all so close, they should all be pretty close to 25% likely.
46:54You're just not getting bang for your buck there.
46:57And just big picture on the lines. I can't be excited to run and bet the team right now.
47:03You have an offensive line that was number one, two years ago.
47:06Now I have them league average missing Cade Mays to start the year.
47:10They should get better late in the year, but we're betting this now, not late in the year.
47:16The run game dropped a 10th last year. Now you lose David Montgomery.
47:20You get Pacheco and set that. That's a downgrade.
47:22If the line is worse, do you get a worse version of Jared Goff now?
47:27And then I said with the injuries, secondary is in shambles right now, right?
47:31Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph. We don't know when we will see them best safety duo in football, but will we get them?
47:38Terry and Arnold for lots of good reasons. No longer on the team anymore.
47:42Make Robertson. That was their top two corners or two of their top three, at least last year.
47:47That's like the whole secondary. So DJ Reed, good luck finding extra help back there for now.
47:52So I wanted to be out on the Lions, but even just the opening schedule where this team is injured right now, no center, no secondary.
48:00You go to Saints at Buffalo Thursday night, probably not great.
48:03And then Jets, Panthers, Cardinals, then a bye week.
48:06That's not bad, man. Even if you're down on the Lions, you might be four and one.
48:11Then you hit the bye week. You get healthy.
48:14I think the Lions actually end up as my actual outright division favorite here, but I just can't get the plus 170.
48:20It's too short of a number, especially when they are this injured going into the year.
48:25This is a marathon. We got a lot of time here.
48:28It's not a sprint. You can't take the short favorite in the stack division with all the injuries up front.
48:34It's just you can't do it as a better.
48:37All divisional games, all on the road. And we talk a lot about the Lions and Jared Goff playing in cold weather
48:44and that they don't usually have to play in a cold weather game until latter parts of the season.
48:49Well, that's what's going to happen. In week 17, they've got at Chicago, week 18 at Green Bay.
48:55And I think that those two games, they might decide the division.
48:58So you might, I'm sure you'll have more NFC North thoughts as we go kind of thing throughout the year that maybe
49:05there's more opportunity to jump on the Lions. But right now, probably not the best time to do that.
49:10But the best time to listen right now is right now, because at tier one, this is Giants Island, New York Giants, number one option.
49:18Six to one at DraftKings. Let's start with this.
49:21So in the article that's going up on actionnetwork.com for your worst of first angles, you said that the Giants are one
49:27of the more obvious improvement teams that you've seen in recent years.
49:31You know, head coach, you know, high draft picks, all that good stuff.
49:35But why will the Giants win more this year?
49:37Yeah. So start with the improvement case. Just last year alone, they were a much better team than the final record looked like.
49:44They finished 4-13. The metric said that was more like a six win, probably even a seven win team.
49:50They go one and six in one score games.
49:53We remember those games because they mattered. That was against the Broncos.
49:56That was against the Cowboys. The entire NFC North, all good teams.
50:00They blew close games to all six of those teams.
50:03They had a fourth quarter lead in five of those.
50:06They had a final minute lead in three of those games.
50:09Those were like all the win probability charts that crash at the end like a heart monitor, right?
50:14From like 90% down to nothing at the end.
50:17That was the Giants. Most years, you're going to get a couple of those wins.
50:21By a Pythagorean model, this team should have won more than seven games.
50:25They won four. So we would feel much different, I think, just starting out about Jackson Dart, 7-10.
50:31Not bad for a rookie season. And from Bill Barnwell, we've had 23 teams since 1990 that finished two and a half
50:37wins or more under the Pythagorean outcome. The lines, I think, are 3.1 under.
50:41Those teams improved by three wins heading into the following season.
50:45So all that alone, you're already looking at more like a seven win team, not a four win team.
50:50Okay, well, seven doesn't win the division. So we're starting there.
50:54How about the coaching staff? Yeah, bottom two last year in the rankings to one of my favorite head coaches in John Harbaugh.
51:01And I know we crap on Harbaugh. He did not push the Ravens to the Super Bowl and over the top.
51:07But again, difference between ceiling and floor raising. The ceiling in Baltimore was the problem.
51:11I don't know if the ceiling was still there for Harbaugh.
51:15The floor is there. 18 years as a head coach in the NFL, eight wins or more all but one of those years.
51:21At least a playoff win in half of those years.
51:24Average win pace, 10.4 wins per season. 10 wins.
51:27Now we're talking. And look, we'll get back to it.
51:30Not excited about Matt Nagy and assistants Greg Roman and Brian Callahan.
51:34But those guys have been around the NFL for a reason.
51:37Maybe those are floor raising guys. Maybe they can get you some semblance.
51:41And with Harbaugh, you get an adult in the room with the team is badly needed.
51:46And with Harbaugh, you know I got to do it.
51:49Special teams. Harbaugh always brings the special teams with him.
51:52Chris Horn, the assistant, came with him. Top 10 unit 11 times already.
51:55This was a bottom 10 special teams last year.
51:58Awful punting. Awful kicking. So look at the roster.
52:01They brought in a new punter. A new kicker.
52:03A new long snapper. Two new kick returners. That is a coach that knew I care about special teams.
52:09If you go bottom 10 to top 5 where I have them this year, in my system, that is worth 2 points to the spread every game.
52:17That's a huge swing of something we don't pay that much attention to.
52:21And that starts with the special teams and the coaching.
52:24So if you get a 7-win team more or less, you add the special teams swing, you add the coaching staff, and
52:31just add a lot of talent up and down the roster.
52:34That's where I think you start with the Giants love here.
52:37Okay, so on the defensive side of the ball, I don't really think you have to talk to me too much about it.
52:44I feel very good about where they're going to be.
52:47I think they're going to be able to really get after the quarterback.
52:51And even on offense, even though I might have some reservations about Jackson Dart and the offense, I think they can be effective.
52:58But the part that just sticks in my eye right now where I can't get over it, man, is Matt Nagy.
53:04Like, I need you to help me hurdle this objective here because I can't let go of the fact that he is right now calling the plays.
53:12Yeah, I mean, let's be fair to Matt Nagy for a second.
53:16The man led the 8th, 8th, and 12th best offenses in the league the last three years.
53:21So it's not like he's been like the trash can from hell coordinator.
53:25Like, he's actually still been okay. It's just that that's okay with Patrick Mahomes.
53:29Start with the defense here for a second because we have this unit, I think, right in the middle of the pack.
53:35I think this could even be an above-average defense if everything comes together, which is kind of weird when you lose Dexter Lawrence.
53:42But he wasn't that great last year for them.
53:45I think he'll be good this year when it was time for a change.
53:49The big problem defensively for this team was the run defense.
53:52They were dead last in run defense. And that pass rush, which we'll get to, didn't even really matter because you don't need a pass.
54:00You could just run on this team all the time.
54:03And again, I think Harbaugh and the team knew that.
54:06They go out and get DJ Reader, Ron Stuffer.
54:08That has been his job over the years in the NFL.
54:12Well, Tremaine Edmonds, that linebacker. The linebackers on this team were so bad last year.
54:16Edmonds specifically is a good run-stopping linebacker. Shelby Harris on the line.
54:20First-round pick, Arbel Reese. These are guys that come in and change that culture up front.
54:25And if you can stop the run enough, now the pass rush matters.
54:28Abdul Carter was awesome last year. Abdul Carter did not get a lot of sacks, but he got a ton of pressures.
54:35He looks like a breakout star maybe as early as this year.
54:39Add in Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeau. So the pass rush is there if they can actually be in better position to succeed
54:45rather than just giving up runs all game long.
54:48And I think, too, as much as we don't like the offensive staff necessarily, Denard Wilson I think has done a pretty nice job defensively.
54:55And that's a big upgrade, I thought, from Shane Bowen, who was just a bad fit for this team.
55:01So better run defense might lead to better passing defense also.
55:04To the offensive side of the ball and to the Matt Nagy of it all.
55:09So look, Jackson Dart, Malik Neighbors, Andrew Thomas, Cam Scaddle.
55:12These guys got to stay healthy. That's the starting point.
55:15Like if two of those four don't stay healthy, we're cooked.
55:18That's it. Giants Island underwater. That's the end of it.
55:21That's how football goes, right? You got to stay healthy out there.
55:24Dart is going to be a hit or miss guy.
55:27I don't mind that on an island sort of pick.
55:30I don't mind that in a long shot. I mentioned with Caleb Williams, got to eat your veggies, Caleb.
55:36You got to do it game by game. But that's as an 11 win division favorite.
55:41If you're the underdog, I don't mind taking some home run shots.
55:44Jackson Dart was actually pretty great EPA for play last year.
55:48Just not success rate. So play by play, it's not going great.
55:51But you hit the big play sometimes. You're a home run hitter.
55:55I kind of like that. And we've said this a few times.
55:59If he does get injured at some point with one of his runs, we get Jameis Winston, the ultimate home run hitter.
56:05Home runs and strikeouts. Don't forget those. They're going to be there.
56:09But the yellow upside, I'll take it. It's Cam Scadabo.
56:12Hopefully my man can actually play a little bit this year and stop flipping and actually play a little football.
56:18Pretty good runner last year, actually, as long as he can be on the field.
56:22This line, this rushing attack got pretty solid last year.
56:25Once Andrew Thomas is out there, this isn't a league average offensive line, maybe even better.
56:30And Malik Nabors, there's a lot of consternation about him.
56:33He looks healthy. He's finally off the pup list.
56:35He's ready to go. That's a top 10 receiver.
56:38This is a guy that we thought looked like a young Terrell Owens.
56:42So that's at least one real weapon out there.
56:45And again, with Nagy, Greg Roman, these guys have been in the league a long time.
56:50These guys have been employed by Jim Harbaugh, by Andy Reid.
56:53These are not trash can coordinators. They're just not our favorites, admittedly.
56:56I'm not going to pretend like they are. But can they set a floor for this team?
57:01Can they take this offense from terrible to 20th?
57:04How about that? Can we get to 20th with a quality run game and some home run passing?
57:09Offense, 20th. Defense, 12th. Top five special teams. That's a formula for a 10-win team.
57:14We might get to 10 if we get there.
57:17Well, can we just not have 10 visits to the blue tent for Jackson Darks every half?
57:22Like, man, that's my biggest concern. Matt and Aggie aside, but just can we just get through 17 games without you going
57:28to the blue tent every quarter after every series?
57:31And I think that's where we're at now. But then we pivot to the schedule because it's not fun.
57:37Right off the jump, you got the Cowboys in week one.
57:40We talked about some improvements that's coming from Dallas.
57:43But then the Rams in week two, top five on both sides of the ball for your rankings.
57:48What I ask is because let's say hypothetically they go 0-2 here.
57:52Should we maybe hold and then wait to see how these two games play out?
57:56Or should we grab the Giants now at 6-1?
57:59Yeah, it's a good question. And look, now is when we're doing the podcast.
58:03So now is when we're getting on Giants Island.
58:06But don't be surprised if we have to double down at 0-2.
58:09But here's the thing. If you're going to beat the Cowboys and the Eagles in the division, you might have to beat
58:16the Cowboys or the Eagles at some point. At some point in the way.
58:20And if you're going to have a home game against a team that is debuting a new defensive coordinator that had the
58:26worst defense in the league last year, maybe not a terrible spot to have to play Dallas.
58:32Look, the Giants are healthy right now. Well, we don't know if they will be later, but at least we get all those guys out there right now.
58:40So maybe you want them right now because you might need them to beat Dallas or Philly anyway.
58:45You might need that week one game. And if you steal that one, you lose to the Rams.
58:51Now you're 1-1. You miss the schedule after that, Jill.
58:54Tennessee Titans, week three. Cardinals, week four. The Commanders, tough division game, but coming off of a London game.
58:59You know we love our post-London trends. They get no rest there.
59:03Then the Saints. You can squint a little bit, get to 1-1, and suddenly you're like, the New York Giants are 4-2?
59:09The Giants are 5-1? Who saw this coming? We saw it coming, Jill.
59:13That's who. So I think if you stay in the mix here, get off to a hot start, you end at Dallas, then Philly.
59:20I don't love that, but again, we're going to have to beat them sometime to get the division.
59:26And if we get in the mix still, they will at least have some options.
59:30So I think now and maybe again later for Giants Island.
59:34Well, and all of these are plug-your-nose bets at the end of the day because, again, they didn't finish last in the division by accident.
59:41So the fact that is that we're banking on improvement here, even though last year's data doesn't necessarily point to that immediately.
59:48Okay, make the closing argument. Giants Island, Giants to win the NFC East at 6-1.
59:52Yeah, look, Giants have only even gone over the number two of the last 15 seasons.
59:57So let's start with that over the 7.5. I have them projected about 8.5, basically a 500 team.
60:02That's not going to get it done in the division, but we didn't really talk about it.
60:07I'm tepid on Philly this year. Sean Mannion, Jalen Hurts, I've been low on that team, that staff, Nick Sirianni.
60:13I don't mind at all having a chance to fade Philadelphia a little bit, even with a really good defense.
60:19I am in on Dallas. You and I have hyped Dallas a lot.
60:23I know you're a Cowboys fan, but they were the last defense in the league for a reason last year.
60:29They have a pretty tough schedule. Can you just kind of get in the mix, get those teams beating up on each
60:36other a little bit, get a 500 team and luck into a win or two?
60:40We're going to need some luck here for sure.
60:43Most of these teams, you'd need it. Can we get to like 10 wins?
60:47Can we get into the mix? I think so.
60:50So Giants improved offense, good defense, huge jump forward on the coaching staff and the special teams.
60:55Don't forget the stat that's dead now, but not gone.
60:58No repeat NFC East champion since 2004. Total Eagles the last two years.
61:02But what if it's not the Eagles again? What if we bring the staff back?
61:06Let's start a new streak. Giants Island plus 600 at DraftKings.
61:09Let's go. All right. Now, before we get out of here, it's time for our DraftKings segment.
61:14Now, Brandon, we just got done talking about all the worst NFL teams from last season.
61:19Who's the team we're looking at to be first in their division for the 2026 regular season?
61:24No question about it. Giants Island, Giants in the NFC East.
61:27That's the one. That's where we landed. All right.
61:30So you can tail this play now or you can wait until September 2nd where DraftKings has some big things in store to celebrate the return of football.
61:39So download the DraftKings sports app and sign up using code ACTIONNETWORK.
61:42Then mark your calendar for September 2nd. DraftKings game day is coming with some incredible offers.
61:47So that'll do it for today's episode of Worst to First for the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings.
61:53Thank you for tuning in. Don't forget to leave us that five star rating and review wherever you listen to the podcast and download the Action Network app.
62:01You can save $20 off of an annual pro account by using code POD20 at ActionNetwork.com slash pro.
62:06And make sure to subscribe to the Action Network podcast.
62:09We've got more NFL betting content to come with week one approaching.
62:13It's going to be sneaking up on us soon.
62:16So make sure to subscribe to the Action Network podcast and you won't miss a show.
62:20So for Brandon Anderson, I'm Jill Gallant. Thank you for listening to the Action Network podcast.
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