UFC Fight Night Betting Preview | Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
47 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 17, 2026
Published
Fri, July 17, 2026
1
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Players mentioned
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R.J. Harris
Player analysis
Player insights
R.J. Harris
PositiveValue28:32
Billy Ward likes RJ Harris as an underdog at +120 against Alvin Guzzi Hines. Ward cites the age gap and the uncertainty surrounding Hines' return to the testing pool after his PED suspension as reasons to back Harris.
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Episode Transcript
0:00On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
0:05I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
0:12I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
0:20I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
0:25Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:29I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
0:33You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
0:37Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
0:43You're not hired just to fill time and space.
0:46You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:54Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
1:02Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
1:06We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
1:14And fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
1:20Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:25Do you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
1:28We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
1:31The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
1:35I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
1:41I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
1:45Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
1:50And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
1:53Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:59The Action Network Podcast. Podcast. Podcast. If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these people over in a second.
2:06Oh! Hello and welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the UFC betting preview.
2:10I'm Sean Zerillo, joined today, as always, by Billy Ward to help you break down a 12-fight card for UFC Oklahoma City.
2:17Give your best bets, favorite underdogs, top props, and more.
2:20And if you'd like to tell us some of the bets that we discussed on today's show, make sure to visit the
2:27Quick Slip link in the video description, or go to actionnetwork.com slash bet now.
2:3212-fight card for UFC OKC. Prelims, 5 p.m. Main card, 8 p.m.
2:35from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Main event, Dreygas Duplessis.
2:39DDP going up against Kamaru Usman. Battle of former champions in the middleweight division.
2:43Five rounds scheduled here. DDP coming in seven years younger off of his loss to Hamzat Shemaev.
2:49I like DDP to finish Usman at about plus 165 on the inside the distance line, plus 200 on his knockout prop.
2:56But I think Usman, by decision, at plus 600 is a huge number as well.
3:00I make that closer to plus 400. But I do show value on both of DDP's violence props.
3:06And that is the way I'm ultimately going to play the fight.
3:10I think the age advantage is going to be substantial for him here.
3:14I think Usman's durability has certainly been declining. Obviously, destroyed Joaquin Buckley in his last fight.
3:19I think the knees, though, were a real issue for him at this age.
3:23Got a couple of takedowns in that fight where he looked very awkward in terms of his entries.
3:29Was able to just overpower Buckley, who's a smaller middleweight, former welterweight.
3:33In terms of getting those takedowns, Tarikis is closer to a light heavyweight than he is the welterweight.
3:39And I think Usman had a pretty clear size advantage over Buckley.
3:42I think DDP is going to have a pretty big size advantage over Usman here.
3:47Not necessarily in terms of the measurables. Just an inch taller.
3:51Same reach for these two. But I think he's going to be the more muscular guy.
3:56I think he's the athlete. Obviously, much closer to his prime.
3:59And I think that physicality is going to make the difference in the fight.
4:03And I think he's going to hurt Usman and finish him at some point.
4:08So I make DDP about minus 210 on the money line.
4:11He's currently listed around minus 250. No bet for me there.
4:15No bet for me on the total. But I do make his knockout prop around plus 180.
4:20I make his inside the distance prop closer to plus 150.
4:24And I would take those at plus 200 and plus 165 respectively.
4:27But if you like the Usman side, Kamaru by decision at plus 300.
4:32Plus 600, I'm sorry. Is probably good down to about plus 450.
4:35I make that closer to plus 390. Kabilis on the other side of this fight from me.
4:41From a pre-fight perspective, he's going to take the shot on Usman.
4:45Down at 2 to 1. But then you're going to look to potentially buy out live on D-plus C.
4:51Where's your entry point for DDP live? And how do you see this fight playing out, Billy?
4:56Yeah, I'm looking at my entry point here more in terms of a money line price rather than a time.
5:02I would love to get plus 200 on both sides of this one and just ride out a profit regardless of outcome.
5:09Is the dream? Really any DDP even money or better though.
5:13So I'd probably start getting in there and then try to lever it up as we go.
5:18I kind of talked myself into Usman throughout this week.
5:21If you watch his last couple fights, the Buckley fight was at welterweight.
5:25But Joaquin, huge welterweight slash former middleweight. It's still smaller than DDP.
5:29Looked good. I mean, he looked like his old self.
5:32He was getting takedowns. He went five rounds. I'm sorry.
5:35He did not go five rounds. Yeah, that was the main event.
5:39That's right. He went five rounds in that one.
5:42Had dominated Hamzat in terms of cardio despite coming in off the couch and was really picking up as the fight went on.
5:49Only got taken down a couple times. Got some takedowns of his own against Hamzat.
5:54And we saw what Hamzat did to DDP in the grappling.
5:58So I feel like there's just levels to this grappling wise where he's going to be able to overcome the strength and
6:04size difference until that gets too hard to do.
6:07Because as I've said on this podcast before, my favorite line or Uncle Mitch's favorite line, I always said the hardest thing
6:14to do is repeatedly take someone down who doesn't want to be taken down.
6:19I think he gets tired. And we all know DDP has his, I don't know if cardio is the right word, but
6:26his just like sheer force of will to not be tired when he clearly is tired.
6:31I mean, he rallied in the fifth against Hamzat.
6:34He looks completely gassed, but still just does more things.
6:37And I believe he'll slowly take over late. I also think Usman's going to have to expend more energy because of that
6:44size discrepance that you pointed out where he's going to work really hard to get those takedowns.
6:49He'll probably get some early and then it'll become harder and harder.
6:53Each one taxes him a little bit more. Each one, he gets a little bit less control time and DDP takes over,
7:00you know, maybe as early as the second round.
7:03If we get a big first round out of Usman, I'd be willing to bet that right away.
7:08Kind of have to play it by ear. As soon as we can get some plus money, though, I want to at
7:15least hedge out and then maybe build a portfolio where I've got a solid profit on both sides.
7:21Usman over two and a half takedowns, minus 115, minus 115 to the under two and a half as well.
7:27DDP over half a takedown is even money under half a takedown is minus 135.
7:32Any of those four bets interest you? Of the four, I'd probably go DDP under.
7:37I mean, he can get a stupid takedown here and there.
7:40I just don't know why he would. With that said, he's not a guy who I'm confident in following any kind of
7:47game plan or not following any kind of game plan.
7:50He's enough of a wild card there that I don't feel great about it because he could he get credited for one
7:57because he kind of just tosses Usman. Wouldn't shock me.
8:00I was hoping it would be one and a half on Kamaru.
8:04Then I'd feel pretty good about betting the over two and a half is kind of right where I see that inflection point.
8:11So not super interested in any of those. But if I had to, I think the DDP under.
8:17Friday night, another middleweight bet between Jerry Cannoneer, plus 288 and Christian Leroy Duncan, CLD at minus 350.
8:23I'm continuing the trend with the three name inside the distance props.
8:27CLD, ITD about plus 155. I also like the under in this fight or the fight to end inside the distance at minus 105.
8:34CLD four inches taller, four inch reach advantage and 15 years younger than the 42 year old Jerry Cannoneer.
8:40Cannoneer one and four in his last five fights.
8:43He's been knocked down five times across those fights.
8:46I would much rather have CLDs inside the distance props as opposed to his money line.
8:51Because if Jared Cannoneer does not get finished, he's competitive on volume with all of his opponents in any fight.
8:57And for that reason, Billy likes Cannoneer plus three and a half points at plus 110.
9:02In addition to his over on takedown props, I didn't see a line for that out yet.
9:08So curious where you would bet the takedown prop up to Billy.
9:11And then the point spread. What's your price target on that bet as well?
9:16Or are you going to potentially target a CLD live bet maybe after round one?
9:21No, on this one, I actually think Cannoneer is the better fighter down the stretch, which is why I like his plus three and a half.
9:29I'm fairly confident that if he doesn't get finished in the first half of this fight, Cannoneer will win at least one of the final two rounds.
9:37That's the plus three and a half. That is currently plus 110.
9:41I'd take it down to about minus 120 if it moves.
9:45Those usually don't move too much, I don't think.
9:47Cannoneer's got takedowns in four of his last five fights.
9:51In the article I have up for this, I believe I wrote, and these numbers might be slightly off, but I want
9:58one takedown at minus 150 or better, or the over one and a half, anywhere around even money, is where I take the takedown props.
10:05Cannoneer's not like a huge wrestler, but he gets some in there, especially when he's hurt.
10:10CLD, much better movement, but he fights backing up and Cannoneer likes to come forward.
10:15I think this will be Cannoneer on volume and then especially leg kicks.
10:19We saw what Petrosian did to CLD with leg kicks, which helped him down the stretch.
10:24Between CLD being super explosive and bouncy and also pretty good at getting kicked in the legs, whereas Cannoneer builds with leg
10:31kicks and truly has great cardio for a man his size and age.
10:35We've seen him finish guys late, come back in fights late over the last couple of years, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down.
10:43I think this will be a fight where Cannoneer actually pulls away, if he can get through that opening storm from the much more explosive younger fighter.
10:52With all of that said, there's always a risk.
10:55We haven't seen him in a year, or almost a year.
10:58That can change a lot when you're 42, so I'm a little bit nervous about it from that aspect.
11:04But based on what we have seen from him in the last couple of years, confident he can steal a later round if he doesn't get finished early.
11:13And he's been really good at recovering. I mean, the only person to finish him in that stretch you talked about was
11:20Naserdi and Imovov, who didn't knock him down. He finished him on the ground.
11:24Every time he's been knocked down on his feet since he was fighting, I believe, heavyweight, maybe somebody got him at light
11:31heavyweight, he's been able to come back. So as long as he can keep that going, fairly confident in this one.
11:38Let's move on to our favorite underdogs on Saturday's card.
11:41Jose Delgado going up against Austin Bashy this weekend.
11:44Bashy you can get at plus money, right around even money.
11:47I also like his submission prop as well, but Billy and I are in agreement here on Bashy as the side of
11:54this fight and what amounts mostly to a striker versus grappler matchup.
11:58Do you think Bashy can be competitive in the striking?
12:01But if anybody's likely to look like a dominant favorite here, I think it is Bashy getting the takedowns going, dominating on
12:08the ground, potentially finding a choke and a finish.
12:11So I like Bashy on the money line. I make him minus 116, like him up to about minus 110.
12:17I also like him by submission as well at 5 to 1 plus 550.
12:22You can take that down to about plus 450.
12:25I make that closer to plus 425. Billy, consensus agreement on this money line?
12:29Could call it an underdog, could call it whatever you want with him sitting around minus 105.
12:34But what's your price target on Austin Bashy? And how did you break this one down?
12:40I mean, you said striker versus grappler, so everyone knows where my bias is going to lie.
12:45Not only striker versus grappler, striker versus grappler from the Detroit suburbs, who like I've trained with his coaches and, you know,
12:52have known about for a long time. I'd take him down to minus 1,000 here, but that's just my personal bias.
12:58So not financial advice there. Yeah, for those who don't know, Bashy was kind of the uber prospect coming into the UFC.
13:05For some reason, his first fight was against Christian Rodriguez, whose only purpose in life is to take the first loss on previously undefeated prospects.
13:13And then he got John Yanis in like a late notice replacement.
13:17Had some injury stuff in there, but he's 24.
13:20Yeah, doesn't turn 25 until later this year. Qualified for States in high school wrestling.
13:25Was IBJJF world champion at brown belt. Just super decorated grappler.
13:28And he's facing a guy who got taken down four times by Andre Feely in his last fight.
13:34So pretty clear and huge advantage in that department for Bashy.
13:37I worry a little bit he gets beat up on the feet before he gets there, but I think he'll be able to implement his game.
13:46And this isn't someone who was just a grappler growing up.
13:49He trained striking. He trained for MMA. He mixes in his takedowns in MMA a lot better than some of the BJJ converts we see.
13:57So I'm fairly confident in his money line and can't believe the sub is as high as plus 600 on FanDuel.
14:04Sukyong Ko about minus 205 going up against John Paul LeBoys-Nayani about plus 180 for JPL on the comeback.
14:10Now, depending upon the site that you use, depending upon your interpretation of the Korean language, Sukyong Ko could either be two names or three.
14:17So if I'm reverting to my two name versus three name inside the distance props from the main and co-main event, I
14:24can either go with JPL here if you're assuming Sukyong Ko is two names, or if they're both three names, then I
14:31can pass on that inside the distance prop happily.
14:34But kidding aside, I actually do show value both on JPL and the over here.
14:39The fight to go to decision at minus 140.
14:42I make that closer to minus 165. I make JPL closer to plus 145.
14:46You can get him as high as plus 180.
14:49Don't necessarily love the read here, though, compared to the other fights that I've already given out, where I do show value.
14:56I do think Ko is a very good fighter.
14:59Great on the feet, but is a little bit chinny, which is why he focuses so heavily on the grappling.
15:05And I think he's going to spend a decent amount of time on top of JPL here.
15:10Maybe just control the fight to a decision, but I actually think he's the likelier finisher as well.
15:16So that makes betting both JPL and the money line and the over that goes to distance prop a little bit difficult
15:23because I think they are relatively correlated to one another, at least a little bit more correlated than Ko's money line would be to the GTD.
15:31So might choose between them. May just play the GTD or I may take the dog shot here.
15:37But I'm curious if you have any thoughts on this fight, Billy, between Ko and JPL.
15:42Yeah, I'm pretty torn on this. I was somewhat high on both guys as prospects on the Contender Series, or I should
15:49say coming out of the Contender Series. I believe I picked against JPL coming in.
15:54I'm not entirely sure. I haven't looked that up recently.
15:57Really like both guys. I actually did bet Sekhun Ko when FanDuel had an offline.
16:02I thought FanDuel was slow to move, but they were actually the first ones to move and make him the price they are now.
16:09So I kind of got the worst of that.
16:12I got, let's see, minus 215 at FanDuel. Everywhere else has kind of joined FanDuel there.
16:17I thought it was going the other direction. I actually really like your read on the goes to a decision, though.
16:24I think the likeliest outcome of this fight is Ko piling up takedowns but not being able to do quite enough to finish it on the ground.
16:32So if I had talked to you before doing any of these bets, I probably would have just gone with some version
16:39of overs rather than lay the juice on the Korean Tyson.
16:43JPL, six years younger. Ko changed the nickname from Korean Tyson to Technical.
16:47Sokyung Technical KO, which, you know, it's not great.
16:50And it's not nearly as good as Korean Tyson.
16:52So if you're talking about Aura and who has the advantage in my nickname power rankings, I have to go with Mufasa, John Paul, LeBoznoianni over Technical Co.
17:01It's just not doing it for me. I'm sorry.
17:04Great fighter, major downgrade in terms of his nickname for this weekend's card, though.
17:09Let's get to the underdog that you like for this weekend.
17:12And that's RJ Harris at about plus 120 going up against the returning Alvin Guzzi Hines.
17:17We love Alvin Hines on this show when he last fought, but he did get suspended for steroids after his, was it his USU debut where he lost?
17:26Well, I should not a Denise lost by decision.
17:29Ended up popping for PEDs coming back here in the heavyweight division, but is 35 years old.
17:34Looks like this is a sloppy fight on paper.
17:37I don't really project value on either the money line, the winning methods, or the distance props.
17:42This looks like a pass for me. But Billy taking the dogshot here on Harris at plus 120.
17:48What's your price target for that fight? And what's your expected winning method?
17:52Yeah, my price target for that fight is either guy at plus money.
17:56I think I'd be pretty comfortable with. I like Harris here.
18:00If you check his record, he beat some okay guys by, you know, regional heavyweight standards, which is really all we can ask.
18:07I mean, he probably beat the same level of guys that Alvin Hines has beat, including contender series veteran Philip Latu.
18:14I almost said UFC veteran. Not quite the case.
18:17The big thing for me, though, is a 35-year-old dude who, like, was real open about his steroid use after testing positive.
18:23He's like, yeah, I got a short notice call.
18:26I'd been doing all the steroids. Now he's in the testing pool.
18:30So, you know, we'll see what he looks like, what the physique is like, whether he's able to maintain that level of
18:37training and recovery while working full time as a mechanical engineering, like, union steward or whatever.
18:42Probably overtightening some pipes and stuff. Maybe he may need to check his work with all the roids.
18:48He may have some gaskets that are a little overtight that may pop off for Alvin Hines.
18:53That's a good point. But, no, my general summary of this fight is I would really like Alvin Hines to be a
19:00going concern in this division, but I don't think he's going to be.
19:04Not that I think RJ Harris will either, but much younger, decent competition, and as far as we know, he's got there
19:11without the use of performance-enhancing drugs, although I wouldn't bet too much on that either.
19:16Shout out to IUOE Local 49. That's Alvin Hines' union of operating engineers.
19:20But, yeah, definitely check the gaskets that he's tightened within the past two years or so.
19:25I think he may have some overfit and overtightened equipment there.
19:29Let's move on to our top prop section for this weekend.
19:32Chase Hooper about minus 350 going up against Mitch Ramirez at plus 280.
19:36Hooper, the obvious early durability concerns, knocked out by Landskipson Jr.
19:40Alexander Hernandez dropped three times, I believe, Rafa Garcia in 90 seconds.
19:43But on the ground, just flows as well as anybody, especially once he gets to the top position.
19:49He's shown some vicious ground and pound, but I do think his knockout prop, a little bit too much equity baked into it this weekend.
19:57I think if he finds the finish against Mitch Ramirez, it is much likelier to be the submission.
20:03I make a submission prop about plus 140, get as high as plus 160.
20:07It's not a humongous edge. Likely only length that down to about plus 150.
20:11I also show alignment with the market on the Mitch Ramirez knockout prop.
20:16I make down about 5-1, and you can get it as high as plus 525.
20:20So Ramirez by KO, Hooper by sub. The two ways I would be looking to play this fight, but I'm going to
20:27go for my bet with Hooper by sub down to plus 150.
20:31Billy, do you have any thoughts here? Yeah, not betting it.
20:35It's a great DFS fight. Between the two of them, they've been knocked out in five consecutive fights.
20:40So obviously Hooper is a heavy favorite, is more expensive, but there's some pretty solid upside for Ramirez as well.
20:47On a 12-fight card, this is one I think you could probably just have one of either guy in all your lineups and feel pretty good about it.
20:55Fatima Klein at minus 440 going up against Tabitha.
20:58Baby Shark Ricci coming back at plus 350. Ricci stepping in here on short notice for Amanda Lemos.
21:04She is five inches shorter, six-inch reach discrepancy and disadvantage for Ricci.
21:08The 5'1 Ricci, which is the 61-inch reach. She hasn't shown any finishing upside really at the UFC level, fighting to a
21:15lot of low volume, boring, relatively boring decisions. She has an enjoyable personality.
21:19It just has not translated inside of the cage.
21:22I make Klein right around where her money line is, but I actually show value on her finish props, her inside the distance prop, and her knockout prop.
21:30I make her knockout prop, or I would bet her knockout prop at plus 550.
21:35I think I make that closer to plus 400, and her inside the distance prop is plus 340.
21:41I make that closer to plus 250. Also show value on the under or the inside the distance props here.
21:47I would just prefer to get the better number and the better prices on Klein's side of that finishing equity.
21:53I think if Ricci gets a finish, she's going to have to catch a submission from bottom in a scramble, and I
22:00think that is a pretty low probability. So it can be Klein to finish this fight.
22:05Again, about plus 550 by KO, plus 340 inside the distance in this woman's strawweight bout.
22:11Billy, any thoughts for you here? Another great DFS spot.
22:14I will correct you on a minor fact here.
22:17Stepping in for Amanda Hibas, not Amanda Lemos. Thank you.
22:20Because there's tons of Brazilian Amandas apparently fighting in the UFC.
22:23The only reason I bring that up is because it's stylistically pretty much the same fight for Klein.
22:29Going from an undersized, grappling Brazilian strawweight to another one is not really a big adjustment.
22:34I'll sometimes say that it's harder for the fighter on the card as well because they have to change who they're facing.
22:41This one, I don't think you really have to change too much.
22:45Richie, a little bit better striker, did finish Hibas on the feet, but broadly speaking, they're very similar.
22:50Really like Klein for DFS. Richie got taken down six times by Verna Janderoba.
22:55Klein, another grappling prodigy. He trains with Aaron Blanchfield, has some grappling accolades, and is also a decent striker.
23:01So I don't really see how Hibas gets it done here.
23:04Yeah, again, like Klein for DFS, it might not be the most impressive performance, but with how heavily takedowns are scored, fighters
23:11like her and Bashi are going to be huge this weekend.
23:15Felipe Franco plus 135 going up against Levi Rodriguez in an all-Brazilian bout, an all-Brazilian who has faced Freddy Vidal bout.
23:21I think this one is likelier than the market suggests to go over the one and a half rounds and potentially go
23:28all 15 minutes and hit a decision at plus 300.
23:31I make the GTD prop closer to plus 250, so I show value both on the over one and a half at
23:38even money and the GTD at plus 300. Also light value as well on Franco.
23:43I make him about plus 130. You can get his highest plus 135.
23:47I would want probably closer to plus 150 to take the dog shot here.
23:52Certainly looking at a contrarian over in the light heavyweight division.
23:55Do you have any thoughts here, Billy? I'm sad you beat me too, pointing out that they both fought your guy, Freddy, on the contender series.
24:03Yeah, he's from Long Island, isn't he? He's from Long Island.
24:07He's automatically my guy. It's fair. A hundred percent.
24:10Yeah. I mean, I'm claiming Austin Bashi, whatever. That's how it works.
24:13Yeah, one of them beat Freddy Vidal. One of them, I think technically, Levi Rodriguez has a no contest against Freddy Vidal.
24:20So if that impacts your handicapping, that was also due to performance enhancing drugs I find it interesting.
24:26These guys are testing positive and then they just still get the contract as if it never happened.
24:32I could make a case, I guess, for Felipe Franco playing that logic just because, you know, now Rodriguez is theoretically clean.
24:39And no, he wasn't fighting heavyweight. One of them was.
24:42I don't know. It's a mess with the weight classes moving around here.
24:46Long story short, I love the idea of betting the like sloppy over in this one.
24:51Just maybe both guys get tired and lean on each other.
24:54It will not be fun to watch, but it'll be a fun sweat until it cashes.
24:59Before we move out of the prop section, just want to re-highlight the Austin Bashi sub prop because I mentioned it earlier
25:06and you were like, yeah, I can't believe the number is that high.
25:11You had it written here under your top prop section.
25:14Again, you can find as high as six to one, I believe Billy said.
25:18I make that closer to plus 350 for Bashi.
25:21I don't really give him much knockout equity. I think it's decision or submission for him.
25:26So what's your number, your lowest number you're willing to take in the submission market?
25:31And how do you think he finishes it? Arm triangle, rear naked choke.
25:35How does he get it done? Yeah, I thought it would be closer to like plus 300, plus 350, making up a preponderance of his win condition.
25:43I think I'd take down to about plus 400.
25:46The only risk here I see is like a ground and pound finish using his grappling, you know, setting up positions with
25:53jujitsu and then beating the guy up from there.
25:56Rear naked feels like the safest bet. And with his wrestling background, if he can get Jose Delgado to turn and try to escape.
26:04These are lighter weight class guys. So they're going to be scrambling a lot, maybe giving some back exposure.
26:10If I wanted to get real crazy and I had no idea if this is even offered anywhere, but the specific sub market.
26:17Seen a couple of Sulu have stretches lately. So you get on a guy's back, he tries to stand up.
26:23That would probably need to be like 700 to 1 to be worth fighting, but could be a fun, could be a
26:30fun prop if you have access to the books that allow those specific submissions.
26:35On the new podcast Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
26:40I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
26:46I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
26:55I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
26:59Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us.
27:05Not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is
27:12and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind or
27:19wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your
27:26first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
27:32I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
27:36If you know me, you know I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
27:41So this podcast lets us uncover those things together through meaningful conversations with fascinating people.
27:46Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
27:52You're not hired just to fill time and space.
27:55You're hired to fill the space with you. You have something in your guts.
27:59You go with it. And Shawn Johnson recalled the moment she realized her now husband, Andrew, was the one.
28:05He was just so unapologetically himself and knew nothing of Hollywood.
28:09He hadn't been on a plane before without his family.
28:12It was so pure. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
28:19Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
28:22But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
28:25What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
28:31Developers with right wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
28:36The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
28:40But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
28:47Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
28:54God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
28:57Do not use my hard work to sell your bulls**t.
29:00They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
29:03Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
29:09Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
29:13Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
29:18Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook on the Big Money Players Network.
29:25Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, a.k.a.
29:30The Biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
29:36Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
29:42We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman.
29:45Not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this?
29:48How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script?
29:53Okay. What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird?
30:00Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show.
30:05I would never expect. Let go of that. I have.
30:08I would never set expectations for something like that to happen.
30:11It seems like you did. If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it.
30:17I'm always going to accept. Okay. Danny McBride, fine.
30:20Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you.
30:26Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I was like, is that weed? Nope.
30:29It's fragile masculinity. Mm-hmm. Yep. Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is.
30:38You know what I mean? Like, girl, I go watch a circle.
30:42It's so stupid. Everyone's so dumb except for you.
30:44And fake. Right. Fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life.
30:49I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
30:56Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on
31:03every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
31:10Did you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
31:14We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
31:17The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
31:21I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what, are you going to be singing today?
31:27I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
31:31Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
31:36And I guess I can share that, uh, no way.
31:39Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
31:45Before we move on to our best bets or final bets for this weekend's card, sweating bets on UFC Saturday is great,
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32:16Go to actionnetwork.com slash pro to get in on this offer so you can become the smartest bettor you can be.
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32:25Let's move on to our best and final bets for this weekend's card.
32:30One we're in alignment here, one where we're going to have differing bets on the same fight.
32:35More of a final bet for me in the Tommy McGillen against Alberto Montez fight.
32:40Montez does seem like a very popular underdog selection for me, or selection for the market in general this week.
32:46I make McMillen closer to minus 160. You can currently get him at minus 150.
32:51But as of yesterday, even this morning, he was closer to minus 130.
32:55Fight was a pick-em around two days ago. So the market is heavily moved in line with my price target over the past couple days.
33:03If McMillen drops back down closer to minus 135, minus 130, I'd consider locking in a money line bet.
33:09But in terms of my value for this fight, or where my model shows value for this fight, again, this is not
33:16something I'm necessarily going to consider playing. But it would be a contrarian over, or a contrarian goes to decision.
33:22Over one and a half is minus 120. The goes to decision is about plus 280, considering this is a featherweight bout.
33:29Divisional averages, factoring in a lot of things. I do make this GTD closer to plus 200, but McMillen seems like a
33:36fairly aggressive finisher, and Alberto Montez has a very good submission game as well.
33:40So it seems like one of these two will likely get finished here, even though I do project, if anything, an edge
33:47on this fight going longer would take McMillen at minus 135.
33:51And that is where you got him. You actually took him at minus 110 earlier in the week in your luck rankings, Billy.
33:58Is minus 135 the upper end where you'd probably cut off in terms of taking him like I would?
34:04Are you willing to go further than that? And then how do you see this fight playing out?
34:10You see him finishing it quick, or do you see a longer bout?
34:14Yeah, I think minus 135 is pushing the upper range of this, which makes this more of a final bet than a best bet.
34:21He's basically just store brand Sean O'Malley. I think we all kind of know this at this point, but he doesn't quite have the pop of O'Malley.
34:30He finished Manolo Zucchini year. I'm not even sure if I'm saying that guy's name right, who came back after many years away.
34:37That doesn't count for much. Needed a decision to get through on the contender series.
34:42Puts out a ton of volume, though, and was a multiple-time state champion wrestler in high school.
34:47So where Montez's big game is like that front headlock series, like Patty Pimblitt we saw, which kind of requires you to push for a takedown on him.
34:56So if McMillan is staying at range and just throwing a ton of volume, he's not going to put his head in
35:03a position to get caught in an anaconda or darst.
35:06I could honestly see this go into a decision.
35:09I like your read on the over there, as long as that stays a better price than McMillan's money line, if that makes sense.
35:17Because I don't think Montez can take McMillan down.
35:19So as long as McMillan doesn't initiate the grappling on his own, the submission threat is not really much of an issue.
35:26And I don't think Montez has ever been knocked out.
35:30I know he hasn't been knocked down or anything like that in the UFC.
35:34So with, oh, he has, he was knocked out once.
35:37That was his one loss. But McMillan is not a huge power puncher.
35:41He's just a volume guy. So if you get the over one and a half, even if he does finish him late, that still cashes.
35:49I really like that read from you. Over one and a half around minus 120 on that fight.
35:55The less I like a bet, probably the more value there is in terms of actually betting it.
36:00Because the ugliest bets in most sports tend to be the ones with the most value, but particularly in MMA, the grossest
36:07bets, the GTDs, the overs on fighters or on fights where you think there's less finishing equity than the market anticipates.
36:14Those tend to have the most value. I've backtested a lot of stuff for MMA.
36:19If you would just bet like all of the overs or the GTD props that I showed value on, on these cards
36:26that I typically come on and be like, I do not like this bet, but it does show value.
36:32I think you would have cleared 30 units in the past year, just betting all of those at one unit flat each.
36:39So yeah, there's been a really good return, really strong return in terms of utilizing my model, particularly for the totals.
36:45Trying to tighten other things up in terms of the money lines.
36:49Implemented some new formulas before last week's card to try to sort of tighten the range of money lines, but the GTD
36:56props, the overs, they've been super profitable for these quote unquote ugly fights.
37:00So definitely take a look at the McMillan over.
37:03And then also that Franco Rodriguez over as well.
37:06Fight we're in agreement on here was a short notice booking between Damian Anderson and Ezra Elliott.
37:11Elliott actually opened up as the favorite here. And then the line flipped.
37:15Anderson currently sitting about minus 155 in a battle between Elliott from MMA lab.
37:20And Anderson from Craig Jones B team. We both like the grappler here to likely find a submission against Ezra Elliott.
37:26I make them my initial projection makes them around 70% and currently getting them at minus 155 would lay that up to around minus 200.
37:34What's your price target for this fight, Billy? Why do you think Elliott opened up as the favorite?
37:40And then do you see the submission? Yeah, I have no idea why Elliott opened as the favorite.
37:46I don't know a ton about him. I'm calling this the first contender series fight of 2026.
37:51I have no idea why this is on a UFC card.
37:54Yeah. I mean, actually, I do know it's because they only had 11 on the card and they're both from reasonably close to Oklahoma.
38:02So why not? Damian Anderson, well known in the grappling community is a member of the B team, which doesn't quite exist
38:09anymore or now does in Mexico or something. I can't keep up.
38:13But I looked at Ezra's record and he's mostly a grappler too.
38:17And that seems like a bad plan. Anderson also very, very good athlete.
38:21Like if I haven't seen a ton of his MMA clips, but if you watch him, the striking is not super developed, but he's fast.
38:29He's strong. He's durable. He's got all the things you want.
38:32And he knows he can throw with impunity because he doesn't care if you take him down.
38:37He's just going to get in on your legs and he'll hook you or whatever else.
38:42So really like Damian Anderson. One of the things I really like about him, I'm not sure if this is still true,
38:49but he has either the first or the only win by knockout at combat jujitsu worlds, the Eddie Bravo promotion where you
38:56can slap with open hands as well as strike.
38:59And he just straight knocked a dude out before he ever switched over to MMA.
39:04So that shows the kind of pressure and pace and aggressiveness he uses from the top.
39:09Again, I have not watched any tape on Elliot, so I'm shooting from the hip a little bit here, but I believe
39:16Anderson should be a minus 200 or so favorite.
39:19Two fights that we need to discuss on this card.
39:22We'll see if either of us have any takes or any bets in these bouts, both of which contain fairly substantial favorites.
39:29Alden Churia, about minus 1000 going up against Stuart Nickel in the flyweight division.
39:33Uh, story, Churia training partner, Joshua Vann seen him look great in both of his UFC bouts, both striking and grappling.
39:40Nickel we've seen generally tire out as his fights go longer.
39:43Churia generally gets better as his fights go longer.
39:46So I think the cardio dynamic here kind of aligns pretty perfectly with a Churia look in rounds two and rounds three,
39:53eliminate some of his early finishing equity and round one.
39:56And I just wanted to pull it up. Uh, you can get him about plus 320 in round two and then plus 600 in round three.
40:05So that's how I'd consider betting the featherweight bout, flyweight bout, flyweight bout between Alden Churia and Stuart Nickel.
40:11Do you have any thoughts or bets here, Billy?
40:13I've been burned by Stewie Nickel so many times.
40:16I really wanted him to be good. I bet on him a few times.
40:21I can't do it. Uh, shout out to Kakamora though.
40:24I'm glad they're giving him a fourth try, but don't see this one going any different.
40:29And then lastly, we have a woman's flyweight bout between Diony Barbosa.
40:33And depending on the book, you may see, you may see different names for Anna Melisano.
40:38Uh, but Melisano, the name we're going to go with here.
40:41She just lost on ultimate fighter season 34, got choked out in round one and then is immediately getting put on a UFC card.
40:49Uh, I don't know if she was a late replacement here or why she ended up getting this book, but Barbosa, a
40:56substantial favorite seems likely to finish the fight. You do have to lay juice though, in order for this fight to end inside the distance.
41:04So market heavily anticipating a finish. I'll probably be using Barbosa from a DFS perspective, but from a betting perspective, this fight seems like a pass for me.
41:13Is it a pass for you too? It is not.
41:16I'm actually taking Melisano. I added this to the sheet late, so, uh, totally not your fault.
41:21You can get plus three and a half at plus 195 or plus seven and a half on the point spread.
41:28If you want to get crazy, it's still plus money plus 135.
41:31She's a very good striker. Grew up boxing and kickboxing, still developing as an MMA fighter, but she has height and reach
41:38on Barbosa or at least reach despite coming up a weight class.
41:42We've got a big cage in Oklahoma city. I think Barbosa is overrated.
41:46I believe. Yeah. She's three and two in the UFC, uh, majority decision win and her most recent win.
41:52And then a submission over Deanna Belbita and a decision over Ernesta Cara Katie.
41:57I still don't know how to say that last name, but long story short, not especially impressive.
42:02And with Melisano's footwork and movement and range, I think she can stay away from some of those takedowns.
42:08If she gets stuck in a bad spot, like cleanly taken down to her back, it's probably over, but we're getting plus
42:15money on the plus three and a half big plus money on the three and a half or decent plus money on
42:22the seven and a half on what is clearly the better striker.
42:26Also worth noting. She was the first overall pick from the women's bracket on the season of the ultimate fighter.
42:32So the coaches there viewed her highly. And I also don't want to punish people too much for ultimate fighter performance because it's such a different environment.
42:41They're not with the regular teams. They're not with the regular camps.
42:44They don't know when they're going to be fighting until a couple of days out, which makes weight cutting difficult and tricky.
42:51So I think putting any stock in that probably makes her a little underrated, whereas Barboza has some close wins and just
42:58hasn't been super impressive and is thus overrated. Also, Melisano's nickname is Bandana.
43:02So they read it as Anna Bandana, various last name.
43:06I was just watching some of her fights. She recently got married, hence the multiple last name options.
43:11But yeah, Anna Bandana works for me. It's not super clever, but she wears a bandana and it rhymes with their first name.
43:19So you got to have a gimmick. It's not the worst one we've seen.
43:23Alternative name, you may see her listed under Anna Crutchfield.
43:26So if you're looking, shopping for odds, looking to tell Billy on a bet this weekend, she may be listed under Anna Melisano.
43:33FightOdds.io actually has her as Anna Crutchfield with all the odds populating.
43:37I haven't looked particularly for her odds yet, so I'm not sure what it looks like from book to book, but either
43:44Melisano or Crutchfield, depending upon the book where you're looking.
43:47But that'll do it for a UFC betting preview.
43:50As we touched on all 12 fights, you can find more UFC betting content for both Billy and myself on ActionWork.com.
43:57If you'd like to instantly tell us some of the bets that we discussed on today's show, look for the quick slip
44:04link both in the podcast and video description or visit ActionNetwork.com slash bet now.
44:08Don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app and sign up for Action Pro for immediate access to expert picks and analysis.
44:16Best of luck with our bets this weekend. Enjoy the violence.
44:19Thank you for listening. See you back here next week on the Action Network Podcast.
44:24Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
44:31On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
44:37I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
44:43I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
44:52I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
44:56Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
45:01Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast, Hollywood Handbook.
45:05Each week, we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
45:13Everyone has a good time and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
45:19We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, Adam Scott, Danny McBride, Ben Stiller, and a lot of other big
45:26shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
45:29Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
45:34I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast, Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
45:38You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
45:42Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
45:48You're not hired just to fill time and space.
45:50You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
45:59Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
46:07Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
46:10We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the
46:17site of a social experiment and fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
46:24Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
46:29Do you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
46:33We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
46:36The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
46:40I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
46:46I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
46:50Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
46:55And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
46:58Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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