You Down With ADP?

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

47 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Jul 17, 2026

Published

Fri, July 17, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

A.J. BrownChase BrownDe'Von AchaneDerrick HenryKeaton MitchellKenneth Walker IIINico CollinsSaquon Barkley

Player analysis

Player insights

A.J. Brown

PositiveValue43:43

Positioned as a viable second-round alternative to running backs; source explicitly states 'the wide receivers that are in this round are Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown. You could make the case for any of those guys over Derek Henry and Omari in Hampton,' indicating WR options are competitive with lower-tier RBs in second round.

Insight page

Chase Brown

NegativeProjection32:08

The source was initially skeptical of Chase Brown but is now immediately coming around on him after reviewing game logs. Brown handled the workload on a prolific Bengals offense (1,400 scrimmage yards, 88 targets, 11 total TDs last year); the Bengals didn't bring in anyone to compete with him. Even splits with and without a healthy Joe Burrow show no ammunition to avoid drafting him. Brown is a balanced, locked-in workhorse who gets plenty of targets—not flashy but a mystery box that isn't really a mystery. The source is in full capitulation mode and willing to shift Brown toward the front of the RB group to get him. Ranked #2 second-round RB by source, directly behind Kenneth Walker.

Insight page

De'Von Achane

PositiveValue43:18

Ranked #3-#4 second-round RB option behind Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown; source states 'it will be very close between Saquon Barkley and Devon Achane,' indicating near-equivalent value with Barkley in the second round.

Insight page

Derrick Henry

NegativeValue42:29

Ranked below Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Devon Achane in second-round RB tier; source explicitly states 'If you are Henry over Hampton, you're probably not drafting Hampton,' indicating Henry is a lower-priority second-round target relative to elite RB alternatives and other position options like Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Nico Collins, and A.J. Brown.

Insight page

Keaton Mitchell

PositiveBreakout22:02

Keaton Mitchell is one of the big industry helium picks and a major running back sleeper right now, flying up boards. His emergence as a sleeper creates workload concerns for Omari Hampton, as Mitchell's rise means Vidal (who had been forgotten) and Hampton will split work in a three-headed backfield.

Insight page

Kenneth Walker III

PositiveProjection28:15

Kenneth Walker is the source's number one running back out of the second tier. The Chiefs have not had a 1,000-yard rusher while Mahomes has been starting QB; they signed Walker to a $43 million contract, signaling they acknowledge their running game stinks and want to fix it. With Eric Biennemi returning as OC (never finished worse than sixth in total points/yards and never had a RB as good as Walker), Walker has two paths to top-tier finish: pure volume (near lock for 300+ touches if anything goes wrong with Mahomes/Kelsey/Rice) or offensive dominance if everything gels. Walker's receiving metrics were solid (9+ yards per reception, 19% target per route rate), and he's a big-game player (Super Bowl MVP) who wants the rock. Ranked #1 second-round RB by source ahead of Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Devon Achane.

Insight page

Nico Collins

PositiveValue43:43

Insight page

Saquon Barkley

PositiveValue43:18

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

544

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2:15What's up and welcome back. Once again, another off-season edition of Fantasy Football Weekly with your host and faithful narrator, John Laghezza, and my friend and yours, Mr.

2:24Jake Trowbridge. Jake, we're getting closer. The normies have entered the chat and ADP is moving, which is going to bring us to today's conversation about running backs.

2:33But before we start, how are you doing since I last spoke to you, my friend?

2:38Well, John, when you say normies, I'm assuming you mean the non-psychopaths who treat this as a standard season-long thing rather than a year-long thing.

2:46But I'm doing fantastic because, you know, John, the air quality not so great by me.

2:51The air quality is so bad you'd think it was being coached by Hugh Jackson.

2:56So I've been inside more often this week, but that's just giving me more time to get prepped for my Scott Fishbowl

3:03live draft that's coming up this weekend. So very excited to get my butt kicked for charity.

3:09Yeah. Sorry, honey. Sorry, guys. Can't go outside. Got to have to draft these fantasy football teams.

3:14Well, what I was mentioning is, right, as we get closer, more and more of the public begins to jump in.

3:21ADPs start to move as more of a public opinion is formed.

3:25One of the things that I've noticed, which I want to get to you first also with the meta about running backs, right?

3:32We are kind of shifting in back into, I should say, a very RB heavy early approach that used to be a big thing.

3:40Then we got away from it as PPR became more prevalent.

3:43And now it's all the rage again to have at least one running back, let's say, in the first two or three rounds.

3:51So before we kick off, would you at least subscribe to that?

3:55Maybe you don't need to, but do you want to have at least one of the dominant kind of running backs before we're out of the third round?

4:04With some of the drafts and some of the mock drafts that I've been doing this offseason with this ADP, it's felt

4:11bad to get to round five without a running back.

4:14It didn't seem that way for me a couple of years ago.

4:18It felt like I can make this zero RB thing work.

4:21I can really wait it out. It really tests your patience this year, John.

4:26So this second round is especially going to be interesting, I will say.

4:30But if I don't get a running back by round three, I'm terrified.

4:34Yeah, we're going to get into this great debate here of the second round running backs as they've all shifted up.

4:41The entire first half of the second round is RB, RB, RB all the way up and down.

4:47We're going to speak about them. To your point, my fear is that next wave of running backs that maybe we might

4:54be comfortable with as our RB1 entering redraft, looking at you, Rashad White, that'd be fine.

4:59I think he's a starter. Looking at you, Jalen Warren, I think that's okay.

5:04I think he's a starter. But those names are really few and far between.

5:08Even Tony Pollard, let's get him into the conversation.

5:11But there's only so many of those guys. And I feel like this momentum, right, the meta of fantasy football kind of turns like a cruise ship.

5:20I'm going to be writing about this for Fantasy Life.

5:23I'm going to do a visualization charting all the stuff we're going to talk about.

5:28I'm afraid those next-tier guys are going to move up even more.

5:32They might be less of a value, which will then certainly push us into the second-round running backs.

5:37Now, let's end the suspense. The players I'm mentioning, and this is why I've been kind of mad at the normies, Jake,

5:45because I was one of the guys doing like a gente and Ken Walker at the turn.

5:50Now, gente's up into the first round. You can't bank on him late anymore.

5:55He's no longer a second-round pick. You know, yesterday's price is not today's price.

5:59So those running backs are Devin A. Chain, Saquon Barkley, Omari and Hampton, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, and Derek Henry.

6:06We're going to try and get into all of them, what you think.

6:10Maybe we'll try and rank them and put a little light on the subject, get as much done as we can today.

6:17I've been spending the better part of this week thinking about this debate because, again, as my guys are moving out of

6:24reach, I've got to get to it. I don't know, do you have an initial take?

6:29Are there any guys that really stick out to you maybe before we go player by player even?

6:35I mean, I think with this round, what you're going to have to judge for yourself is how much upside you're desperate

6:42to get out of your first or second running back and how much you just want to play it safe because there's

6:49a couple of names in here that seem very, very dangerous to me.

6:53But the payoff of potential top three finishes is still there.

6:57So it's a big old open window with those guys, and I don't know where they're going to fall within it.

7:04Some of these, it's just like, oh, if I grab, and we'll talk about Chase Brown, if I grab Chase Brown, like, I just feel fine.

7:12You know, I don't feel like a certain tingle of excitement, but I feel very comfortable with that.

7:18But that's not the case for every name on this list.

7:21Yeah, we'll get to Brown in a second. Not to bury the lead.

7:25Indeed, it kind of dawned on me the other day, maybe the Bengals are going to be really good, right?

7:32We've been chasing them for years. Maybe it's the Burrow injury.

7:35Maybe it's just a little bit of fantasy fatigue.

7:38These things happen. But, right, Higgins used to be a solid second-round pick.

7:43He's kind of falling down. Jamar Chase, of course, is where he is.

7:47But, you know, Brown, with the volume attached to that offense, could be going up higher.

7:52I want to talk about Devin Atchie first because you mentioned upside, and I think he's the player with the most upside.

7:59Man, it's going to come down to what we think about the environmental shifts.

8:03Moving away from McDaniel, who's been really good at creating space.

8:07Moving towards Malik Willis, who I think there are fair concerns that he might not throw to the running back.

8:13We know that about running quarterbacks, they tend not to.

8:17But it doesn't mean that they can't. And I think all of these things are very much contextually driven.

8:23And Devin Achan has got to be the best pass catcher on the team by an order of magnitude.

8:29Do we really think they're going to phase him out?

8:32So let's talk about the Dolphins and Achan real quick.

8:35Where do you slot him? Right now, drafters have him leading the pack, but it's not by much.

8:41And you have to pick one. No one is falling back to that next selection.

8:46I'm really on the fence. I was really high on him at first, going near the turn.

8:52Now I'm kind of getting away from it. I'm really nervous because I think the Vegas totals for the Dolphins are kind of low.

8:59And if we're looking for touchdowns, that's where you get them from, the running back.

9:04What do you think about Devin here? With Devin Achan, you're basically jumping out of an airplane and really hoping that Bobby

9:11Slovic, the offensive coordinator, packed that parachute right. And I don't know that I can say that with the utmost confidence, which

9:18stinks to say because Devin Achan last year, he's the RB5 in points per game.

9:23He led the league in yards after contact. He was great with his broken tackle rate, you know, back-to-back seasons with at

9:30least 85 targets, to your point about his pass-catching prowess.

9:33And he's playing on an offense where, you know, a casual NFL fan probably could not name a single skill player outside of Achan.

9:41So it looks set up well, but how bad is the offense going to be overall?

9:46In Miami. Because low-scoring offenses, they can be a death nail for running backs in fantasy.

9:51I was just looking last year, John, at these guys who had bottom offenses in the league.

9:57The Raiders had the worst scoring offense in the league.

10:00Ashton Gentry, he finishes his RB16 in points per game.

10:03I mean, that's doable. That's okay. But it's not elite status.

10:07The Browns were second worst. Quinchan Judkins was RB25.

10:10Titans, third worst. Our guy Tony Pollard, RB30. The Jets are fourth worst.

10:14And Brees Hall, RB20 in points per game. You can argue that Devin A.

10:19Chan is better, or at least more multifaceted, than those other running backs.

10:23But I just don't know that I can bank on him paying off this early in the second round, John.

10:29So I would prefer to drop him back a little bit.

10:33Yeah, I think I'm with you because of that scoring total.

10:36He checked every box. Volume, efficiency, pass catching. It's really everything you want.

10:40But if Willis is going to tuck it the few times that they're near the goal line, that could really, you know, stunt him.

10:48But the flip side is if he's involved in garbage time catches, that could get you the floor.

10:54So I think he definitely belongs in the second round.

10:57But I don't know if I want to take that kind of gamble, like the risk-reward.

11:02I don't know if I want that much of a floor.

11:06But also, he probably gets a bad reputation as being like small or scatty.

11:10You mentioned the broken tackle stuff is really good.

11:13He's actually really good between the tackles. But that also comes down to the McDaniel thing.

11:18How much is that run game going to hurt losing him and McDaniel always knowing, like I mentioned before, for creating space?

11:26Man, I'm afraid already. So we're not going to get to the answer that I wanted to.

11:31I told you, I'm fair. You were going to give me the answers that I needed.

11:36Man, I'm starting to get worried. I don't know if there is an answer.

11:41And it's just going to come down to how we balance all of that risk.

11:46So I think A-Chan has got a really high upside.

11:49I don't think the floor is zero. But it could be really frustrating.

11:53You mentioned lack of pass catchers. Are we going to be drafting Jalen Tolbert by the time offseason stuff is done?

12:00Because right now he's listed as the wide receiver too.

12:03Malik Washington, maybe we've seen that movie before. It's a little nerve-wracking.

12:07Next up, we'll go the other way, which is age plus volume.

12:11It's Saquon Barkley. He's had a million touches. I just saw he's averaging over 333 touches across a four-year span.

12:17Talk to us about tread on the tires. He's also coming off an inefficient season.

12:22Tank Bigsby, his understudy was really efficient. I don't think he's going to displace Barkley.

12:27What do you think about Saquon? How long are they going to keep going back to him if he disappoints again?

12:34He's dribbling the ball with everything on the line.

12:36He's driving down the pitch. He's facing price hikes and cuts past him.

12:41Carrier Contracts tries to block him. Oh, he leaves him in the dust.

12:45He's at the edge of the box. He cuts past the nonstop group chat trash talk.

12:50He clears on goal. He shoots. No! Data for $25 a month forever!

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15:43Save money. Check Lyft. I didn't realize how high his average season touch count was.

15:48That's a lot, and that does get concerning. That 350-plus touch range for a running back can be very dicey the following season.

15:55We kind of saw the impact of that last year.

15:59He had so many touches in 2024, and then last year, like you said, his efficiency goes down.

16:04The offense just sort of phased him out a little bit.

16:08And I guess the upside with Saquon this year is that we don't know what the new Eagles offense is going to look like without A.J.

16:16Brown. It could be more of a spread-out offense.

16:19We could see Devontae Smith and Makai Lennon and Dallas Goddard, you know, each getting about 100-plus targets.

16:25I don't know. That wouldn't shock me. Or they could go back and run everything through their ground game again, like they did in 2024.

16:33That's when Saquon got, you know, 370-something touches and led the league in yards per game.

16:38So I hate to keep saying this, John, but the risk-reward thing is still very much there with Saquon.

16:44I don't know that I have a definitive answer, but here's how I'll caveat this.

16:49I'll give you something because you're so desperate for it.

16:52Desperate is the word. Desperation is a stinky cologne, my friend.

16:56Yes, that is true. Now, Saquon does not catch as many passes as he did early in his career, but I think

17:03I would still rather have Saquon Barkley where he's going in the second than CMC in the first.

17:09It's a similar narrative, I think, in terms of these high-touch count, older running backs.

17:14There's no fear with Christian McCaffrey right now. It doesn't seem to be anyways.

17:18In the first, because you know, hey, he should still catch so many passes.

17:23I still think the risk of an injury to CMC is greater than you getting duds from Saquon Barkley.

17:29So I would rather at least wait and take him.

17:32Yeah, I think Barkley in redraft is a safe play, but I don't know if I want a safe play in the second round.

17:40I'm kind of looking for the ceiling outcome and getting closer to 30.

17:44I think he's like 29 and a half. He's going to finish the season as 29, but he's getting there.

17:50I had a couple of red flags, and I think that's how I'm trying to dress these early decisions, because it's not any of these guys are bad.

17:59They're all great football players. We're talking about guys in the top 25 overall in fantasy football.

18:05They're all fantastic. My worries for Barkley. He had the worst yards after contact per attempt in the top 25 drafted running backs.

18:12It was under two and three quarters. He also had one of the worst negative attempt rates.

18:18Now, he was really only behind Gentty in that number when we're talking about the top backs, but Vegas gets Miller, adds

18:25Linderbump, and the new offensive schematics there. We're all expecting that to improve.

18:29Barkley's going back to kind of the same environment.

18:32He had a zero or negative attempt rate over 24%, so nearly one of four carries from Barkley was either zero or nil, and Bixby was fantastic.

18:41I hate to keep beating that drum. I have gone the Bixby route almost 10 times out of 10 over Barkley, another player here.

18:48I feel how you dressed up the A-chan thing.

18:51I'm just worried about some downside, maybe some risk that people aren't addressing, and then all the injury stuff.

18:57Man, really rough here. I'm kind of 0 for 2.

19:01Next up, Omari and Hampton. The big case has got to be Mike McDaniel, the creator of space.

19:06They return Slater. They return all, and I think they draft a lineman all, so everyone is expecting a major leap forward for the Chargers.

19:15Where are you on Hampton, Jake? Hampton is the wild card out of this round, out of all these players.

19:21And again, that's not a great sign because we've already talked about A-chan and Barkley kind of being hit and miss too and risky.

19:29But with Omari and Hampton, like I didn't see a ton from him last year in his rookie season that made me

19:36think, you know, this kid's going to be a star as I puff on my oversized cigar.

19:41But I do think it's hard, A, when you're a rookie coming into that system, but also having your offensive line decimated.

19:48That has to be terrible. So you mentioned the O-line is kind of a priority in terms of getting them healthy, getting

19:55them strong, or else everything's going to fall apart.

19:58If Joe Alt and everybody else is up there and healthy for most of the season, Hampton has a very good shot

20:05at at least paying off at this ADP. I don't know that I see a ton more than that though.

20:12I don't know that we're looking next year and going, oh, he's a lock for the first round because of how he performed this year.

20:20And I think it might be, from my perspective, overrating that addition of Mike McDaniel.

20:25I get it. We've seen Devon A. Chan, and we've seen Raheem Mostert and his systems in Miami thrive.

20:31But if you're just looking at how he operates his teams, like the Dolphins only finished in the top half of the

20:38league in rushing attempts once during his four years.

20:41His offense has cracked the top 12 in rushing yards once.

20:44What you're hoping is that everything solidifies around one guy, that Hampton just gets so much of this and he's so efficient that he pays off like A.

20:54Chan and Mostert, but he's not the same kind of player.

20:57I mean, he's, you're not going to see probably as many breakaway runs from Omari and Hampton.

21:03Probably not going to evade tackles so much as run through guys.

21:06He has upside, don't get me wrong, but I'm just worried about how we're interpreting the Mike McDaniel of it all.

21:13Maybe Keaton Mitchell and Kamani Vidal are more thorns in our side than we want them to be.

21:19So Omari and Hampton is somebody. Again, I'm okay drafting him.

21:23I just don't have the highest of expectations. I've been struggling also to get to Hampton.

21:28I was so locked in on this gentey Walker thing and I just kept hoping, I guess we'd be frozen in time, those ADPs.

21:35Those are the guys I wanted. Those are the guys that I really, really want.

21:40They check all the boxes and I'm wheels up on them and now that I can't get them, I really find myself behind the eight ball scrambling.

21:49You mentioned the competition in LA. That's been my major hangup.

21:52Vidal, who came in and performed, I mean, very well as a volume back.

21:57He had 23 or more carries in like three of five weeks in that center spot when Hampton was out.

22:03Hampton returns, they split work. And then you mentioned Keaton Mitchell, who is easily one of the big industry helium picks, one

22:11of the kind of big running back sleepers right now.

22:14He's flying up boards and Vidal has been forgotten, man, who I think could earn work and probably did earn some work.

22:21And now if we're at three running backs, all, you mentioned really the skillset.

22:25I think that's the worry is we're not talking about the three down bruiser that does everything.

22:31I think we're going to see Hampton seeding some work and now it's down to that E word, efficiency, hard to bank on.

22:38When you're getting limited touches, I'm afraid people are going to be drafting Hampton in the second round and seeing 12 to

22:4515 touches, which is not what you want from a second round back.

22:50We're looking for 16 or more, 18 or more.

22:52It might be there sometimes, but if all three of those guys are active, we may see all of them getting involved.

23:00Jake, what is going on? This is spinning out of control.

23:03We're halfway through the six back so far. Again, let me shuffle some papers, maybe pull a clump of hair out.

23:10Let's get to the back three in just a second.

23:13He's dribbling the ball with everything on the line.

23:16He's driving down the pitch. He's facing price hikes and cuts past him.

23:20Carrier contracts tries to block him. Oh, he leaves him in the dust.

23:24He's at the edge of the box. He cuts past the nonstop group chat trash talk.

23:30He clears on goal. He shoots. Unlimited data for $25 a month forever.

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23:39Boost Mobile. After 30 GB, customers may experience lower speeds.

23:42Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost $25 unlimited plan.

23:48Awkward time to ask this, but hey, did you download the trail map?

23:52Yeah, no, I don't need to. I don't understand.

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23:58They have the best network. And if we end up in bum tots nowhere, well, we've got T-Satellite for backup.

24:05Well, I don't trust my carrier that much. We'll just use your phone as a flashlight.

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26:23Save money. Check Lyft. All right, Mr. Jake. We're back with the second half of this RB great debate that, again, I've

26:30been really struggling, and sometimes there isn't a clear answer as I digest this really in real time.

26:36I'm not burying that lead. I don't know the answer.

26:39I don't really like any of these players. Now I'm starting to feel like I am definitely taking a running back in the first round.

26:47I think this is why James Cook and Gentty have been forced into the first round.

26:53I may be forcing Ken Walker into the back of the first round.

26:57I know he's in this group, and I'm really buying into environmental stuff.

27:01You know what? I'm skipping a little bit, but since I mentioned him, let's go with Walker next if that's okay.

27:08He didn't have the volume. He didn't have the efficiency.

27:11He didn't really have the pass catching. What am I so into Ken Walker for?

27:16Well, it's he's moving to the Chiefs. We've seen the value of running backs in the Andy Reid system, plus Mahomes returning from the torn ACL.

27:24Feel safe to say he's not going to be looking to run.

27:28We've covered this before. Mahomes probably will run in a diagonal at the first down marker, which is exactly what we want him to do.

27:36I don't think we're going to be seeing him doing design runs.

27:40I think that's going to be Ken Walker. They tried the running backs are replaceable thing, and the Kareem Hunt experiment just didn't work.

27:48Put Ken Walker where we had Kareem Hunt, and I'm seeing the RB one that I'm looking for at that first round

27:55turn, but maybe I'm overpaying a bit. Talk to us about K-Dub 3, Mr.

27:59J. John, I know we scared some people probably with those first three running backs and all the risk.

28:05I actually think this back half is where it settles down.

28:09These are the guys that I would rather have out of this group, and Kenneth Walker is number one for me out

28:16of this second round of running backs. You mentioned it.

28:19The Chiefs have not had a thousand-yard rusher while Patrick Mahomes has been their starting quarterback.

28:24They've been trying to piece together a usable backfield with duct tape and recycled limbs since about 2017, since the great dip of Kareem Hunt.

28:32So what do they do? They go out and sign the Super Bowl MVP to a $43 million contract.

28:39That signals to me the Chiefs saying, hey, we acknowledge our running game stinks.

28:43We don't want it to stink anymore. So here's our solution.

28:47And I think the underrated thing along with the Kenneth Walker signing is them bringing back Eric Biennemi.

28:52As their offensive coordinator, I'll shout it from the mountaintops.

28:56This guy can make this offense a top five scoring offense in the league again.

29:01Now it's going to require a couple things to work out right.

29:04Patrick Mahomes is going to have to look respectable coming off that injury.

29:09He doesn't have to be his prime self right away, but he has to get there eventually.

29:14Travis Kelsey needs to stand upright, which is a tough task for a guy of his age going out there.

29:21I couldn't do it. And then Rasheed Rice has to stay on the field.

29:25Those are all legitimate question marks. But what makes me feel good about Walker, no matter what, John, is that there's two

29:32different paths to me seeing him finish sort of as a top tier running back.

29:37And the first path is just pure volume. Because if any of those things do go wrong, if Mahomes looks more banged

29:44up than we want him to be, if Kelsey does feel his age, if Rice doesn't stay on the field, Walker should

29:51be a near lock for 300 plus touches. Like the volume should just be there no matter what.

29:57But then there's the offensive dominant side of it, where if everything gels right, and Eric Biennemi can get this offense back

30:04to its sort of heyday, you know, they never finished worse than sixth in total points or total yards under Eric Biennemi.

30:11And he never had a running back as good as Kenneth Walker.

30:15So I am very bullish on Kenneth Walker. I would absolutely take him at the start of the second round.

30:21Yeah, me too. I'm with you 100%. You really covered all the great stuff.

30:26Also, we've seen Reed and Biennemi lean into, I guess it's weird, it's leaning into the anti-too-high-shell stuff, meaning the Chiefs have

30:33been one of the teams that welcome these long drives, which are difficult to pull off.

30:38But when you have Patrick Holmes, he can help you do it.

30:42They're one of the few teams that average, you know, two first downs a drive.

30:47It's only, you know, a handful of teams. They were over three minutes per drive time possession.

30:52And that's the score on more than 42% of those drives.

30:56So they can do it with short stuff. And I think Walker is that kind of guy.

31:01I think Walker really compliments that, right? The Kelsey quick out, the Rashi Rice quick slant, and then maybe you're stretching the

31:08field with Worthy, Walker challenging the defense. And I think the one thing I wanted to mention is the pass-catching chops, which people really questioned.

31:17And this is something we're hearing, it's Jadarian Price also this year.

31:20If a player was never put in a position to do something, we shouldn't say that they cannot do it because they have not done it.

31:29Those are two different things. And Kenneth Walker's receiving stuff was actually pretty good, all things considered.

31:34He was over nine yards per reception and had 19% target per route rate.

31:39Those are pretty solid, actually. Not like a stone hands kind of receiving back.

31:43And I think he wants the rock. He's a big game player, Super Bowl MVP.

31:48You know you're going to KC to try and repeat.

31:51And I wouldn't be surprised if they're, fully on board with he is the engine of that offense.

31:57So I'm with you with Ken Walker III. I think if there's kind of a diamond in the rough, he's it.

32:04And if not, it's the other one. We mentioned Chase Brown, who's been falling.

32:08And I have to take a L for love on this one.

32:12I was part of that, kind of turning my nose up at Chase Brown.

32:17And no, Jake, I don't know why. It might've been the fantasy fatigue.

32:21Maybe I felt like he couldn't handle the workload, but it just takes a single look at the game log to see

32:28that he did handle the workload on a prolific offense.

32:31I'm immediately coming around with Chase Brown, and I agree with you said about the back end of these guys.

32:38I'm seeing 18 for 99 with six grabs at Pittsburgh.

32:4119-4-0-7 with a couple grabs at New England. That was back-to-back.

32:45Then 15 carries with seven grabs at Baltimore. When the chips are down, Chase Brown is the man in that offense.

32:51They didn't really bring in anyone to compete. I'm going to get back in Brown, and I'm with you.

32:57I'm willing to shift Walker and Brown, who are at the end of this by ADP, towards the front of this group

33:05to get the guys that I want, because we know they're not going to fall to us in the third.

33:11Do you have anything else on Chase Brown? I mean, I just want to come out in solidarity.

33:17I've been trying to poke holes in Chase Brown since the end of 2023, when he took over that backfield.

33:23It's been a long time coming of me just not really getting it and expecting his workload to get trimmed back, some

33:30other random running back to come in and kind of leapfrog him, and it's just, it's not happening.

33:36And I think it's because Chase Brown isn't flashy, John.

33:39Like, it's not somebody that you go, oh, wow, look at this one thing that he does incredibly well.

33:45He's just a balanced running back with a locked-in workhorse role who gets plenty of targets.

33:51I mean, 1,400 scrimmage yards last year on the back of 88 targets, 11 total touchdowns.

33:56I even tried to look at the splits with and without a healthy Joe Burrow last year just to see if I

34:03could unlock something and give myself more ammunition to not draft Chase Brown, and I got nothing.

34:08I mean, this is a mystery box that isn't really a mystery.

34:12So shame on us, I guess, John, for not being invested earlier.

34:16Yeah, listen, I talk about this on my baseball live stream all the time.

34:21Changing your mind in the face of compelling data is not flip-flopping.

34:24It's just called critical thinking, and it's okay to change your mind, right?

34:29We don't want to be wavering, but you should be able to be convinced, and it's still early enough in draft season to capitulate.

34:36I'm in full capitulation mode. I really have to admit, as a volume hand drafter, I was running like a 0% Chase Brown rate.

34:44In fact, I found myself off of the Bengals almost altogether, maybe outside of Chase if I had the three pick.

34:51And again, Higgins coming at a discount? Nah. Brown, middle of the second sometimes?

34:55I'm going, nah. And that offense, if Burrow is healthy, is like a 30-point-a-game offense.

35:00So I'm with you 100%. You made me feel a little bit better kind of confirming some of these new.

35:07I'm making them, what's the opposite of a new prior, Jake?

35:10So I think we have our two guys locked.

35:13There's one more, and I know I'm going to catch some heat for this.

35:18I have not been the person talking about Derek Henry and all the miles because, yes, he's a freak.

35:24He was the most efficient back in the league.

35:27But the cop-out for me is that I can't have a second-round running back that can be game-scripted out.

35:33And that's the problem with Henry. He's not on the field if they're down.

35:37Now, Baltimore's probably going to be in a lot of strong game scripts.

35:42And to start the season, I'm probably going to be sorry to be off of Derek Henry.

35:47But as good as he is with the age and the carries and the lack of pass-catching ability, Henry's become very easy for me to fade.

35:55Though I did want to mention one thing. Because you hear people mention running quarterbacks eating up goal-to-go stuff.

36:01It is all Henry all the time. Lamar gets his running touchdowns from out far.

36:06He doesn't really run it in close. He jiggles around and will throw the ball and have Mark Andrews generally drop that ball.

36:14But if they're running it, it's really Henry. So talk to me about Henry.

36:18Do you think it's a little misplaced for me?

36:21Again, I play a lot of PPR and that's what worries me.

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38:56And we are all about comparing prices to save money on so many things in life.

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39:27Save money. Check Lyft. Yeah, I think it's easy to just go, has the fountain of youth dried up yet?

39:33Finally? Is he going to turn back into a pumpkin now?

39:37And you can do that year over year. And it's like the Tom Brady for running backs of it just doesn't seem to happen.

39:45So, I've also put the age thing behind me.

39:47But I'm glad you brought up the PPR, the catch passing aspect of it.

39:52Because you're not insulated from those risks. Like if he has lost a step or he has slowed down a little bit

39:59with age, you're not making up for that with catches either.

40:03So, not only can he be pulled off the field, but it's just a general worry about him.

40:08Like last year, he looked great. And you mentioned efficiency was great.

40:12Everything from a pure rushing standpoint was classic Derrick Henry, really.

40:16He averaged nine yards per carry in week 15 against Cincinnati.

40:19He hit 100 yards easy. Like the easiest I've seen him do in his career.

40:24And yet, John, if you're playing in PPR formats, you barely got double-digit fantasy points because he didn't score a touchdown.

40:31He didn't catch a pass. And that's what's scary about taking Derrick Henry in the second round.

40:36The maybe light at the end of the tunnel on this is that the Ravens brought over, yes, a defensive head coach,

40:44but they also brought in Declan Doyle as the OC from the Bears.

40:48And last year with Chicago, they had the fifth most rushing attempts and third most rushing yards in the league.

40:54Granted, some of that was very much due to their turnover-heavy defense that kept getting them the ball back.

41:00But Baltimore has a good defense. Derrick Henry could still be out on the field a ton, and he could make up for all this with touchdowns.

41:09So I still like Henry, I think, more than Hampton, if I'm being honest.

41:13I would rather take him in the second than Hampton just because we know the bulk of the workload is still Henry's.

41:21Yeah, Justice Hill might come in on occasion in really bad game scripts, but I'm okay with Henry.

41:26Yeah, I'm going to agree with the last point there for sure.

41:30There is a 1,000% baked-in workload. And some of my fears may be a little bit misplaced because in order for Baltimore

41:37to be in those scripts, he might have done some work anyway.

41:41But man, hoping on that kind of repeating of scoring, our wonderful production crew dropped 16 TDs each of the last two seasons.

41:49I was digging through the True Media base. He had, it looks like, almost more than double the goal-to-go carries as anyone else.

41:56Looks like Barkley had 14, I got Henry at 26.

41:59I mean, but it's all his. I mean, there is no better option, and they're pretty much telegraphing it, which I do like also.

42:07If there's a penalty in the end zone, they could write on a billboard, we are running Derek Henry up the middle,

42:14good luck stopping this, and no one is able to do it.

42:18So it's going to be there for him, but I'm a little bit worried.

42:22I think I'm with you on the Henry over Hampton.

42:26That may be a little bit of a hot take.

42:29If you are Henry over Hampton, you're probably not drafting Hampton, and you know, I'm not.

42:34I think I have to let Hampton burn me.

42:37Again, I'm worried about the three-headed back there. As much as I'm becoming bullish about the Chargers offense, I've been doing it

42:44more around Herbert, I think, is the shepherd of that whole thing where we know he's got the big arm and he even runs a little bit.

42:53But, man, Jake, you actually did bring a little bit of clarity.

42:57Before we bounce, because we're getting to that time, do you have anything, any other bow you want to put on?

43:03You want to rank him for us? Please go ahead.

43:07I want you to wrap this up for us.

43:10I mean, I think if you're just looking at second-round running backs and you want to rank these guys individually, it starts with Kenneth Walker for me.

43:18Then it's Chase Brown. Then it will be very close between Saquon Barkley and Devon Achan.

43:23And then we're going to look at Derek Henry and Omari in Hampton.

43:28But I think the bigger context as well is who else could you get in the second round if you opt out?

43:35If, let's say, I'm in the second round and Kenneth Walker's gone, Chase Brown's gone.

43:40Dang, I'm not feeling as confident now. Maybe I do just say, I'm going to go tight end.

43:45I'm going to take Brock Bowers. I'm going to take Trey McBride.

43:49And not have to worry about that position, just feel very comfortable.

43:53You know, because the wide receivers that are in this round are Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Nico Collins, A.J.

43:59Brown. You could make the case for any of those guys over Derek Henry and Omari in Hampton.

44:05And I think I'm listening and probably agreeing. So just because I'm ranking these running backs a certain way doesn't mean I'm

44:12going to be afraid to leap over any of them to grab one of these other positions.

44:18Yeah, I'm with you 100%. I think I'm drafting A.

44:21Chan and I'm drafting Chase Brown. I'm drafting Ken Walker.

44:24And after that, I'm probably making the move, like you said, to Collins, A.J.B.

44:29or Brock Bowers, where I think I could get the number one overall player at the position.

44:34I don't want to settle in the second round.

44:37Man, Jake, that was really awesome. Thanks for bearing with me while I was doing my vacation and everything.

44:43I really do appreciate you. And I appreciate everyone out there for listening from John and Jake and Robbie.

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