Anything But Starved In The Desert

Aaron Rodgers is startable in back-to-back weeks against the Colts despite career-low completion percentage, more sacks than any other QB this year, and limited mobility. The Colts matchup specifically offers one more favorable opportunity for Rodgers to produce yards and touchdowns before worse times ahead.

Matthew Berry expresses frustration with the Packers running back room, noting he's been holding on by a thread to AJ Dillon but is ready to capitulate; the backfield is in disarray with no clear lead back emerging.

Antonio Williams is the big winner with Steph Diggs out; Jake Trowbridge notes he would benefit even more if Terry McLaurin plays, allowing Williams to operate underneath routes rather than running deep routes. Williams is described as an efficiency monster waiting to break out and should be rostered universally.

Bo Nix has looked terrible so far, but Sean Payton taking over play-calling duties could be the missing stylistic or schematic piece; Payton has succeeded calling plays for Nix previously, suggesting potential improvement.

Matthew Berry notes that while the Browns have been beatable on the ground, making Braxton Miller viable after Breece Hall's injury, he's not particularly interested in the Jets' running back situation overall. Miller is getting one million percent of all the touches but lacks the upside appeal of other options.

Jake does not view Braxton Miller as a high-upside play in Week 5, despite getting all the touches after Breece Hall's injury. The running back position is described as gross, and Miller is presented as a lesser option compared to alternatives like Will Shipley.

Brock Bowers is central to the Raiders' offensive success; he can move in and offline to create matchup nightmares and disallow defenses from changing personnel. The Raiders have increased 12 personnel usage to over 85% in the last two weeks (from 33% through two weeks) specifically to feature Bowers alongside other tight ends, enabling play-action success for receivers like Trey Tucker.

CJ Stroud gets a decent matchup against the Titans, who historically don't force teams to throw much; Jake Trowbridge notes this creates an interesting dynamic about how much the Texans will actually run against Tennessee.

Matthew Berry notes that Caleb Williams did practice and expects to play in the upcoming game against Green Bay; this is relevant context for Bears offensive production expectations.

Last week Tate had 9 catches for 145 yards with a 36% targets per route run (third highest of the week) and 44% target share (tied second-most among wide receivers). Matthew Berry notes the Titans built their passing game around Tate as their best player, but expresses caution about locking in another 7 targets this week, lowering expectations significantly from the previous week's performance.

Jake notes that Chase Brown is in line for another high-volume game in Week 5 with Higgins and Chase potentially out. Last week he had 10 rushing yards but 19.1 PPR points due to 6 receptions, demonstrating his value as a pass-catching back. With major offensive weapons missing, Brown should see continued heavy involvement.

Matthew Berry identifies Christian Watson as part of a three-headed monster pass catcher room alongside Matthew Golden and Tucker Craft; describes the group as one of the most talented anywhere with field-stretching, possession, yards-after-catch, reliability, hands, tough grabs, and end zone capabilities. Watson is positioned to benefit from the Packers' historically bad run game forcing volume into the passing game.

Watson faces the Bears defense on the road in Green Bay; the Bears gave up 30% more passing yards and three times more touchdowns on the road than at home last year, creating potential for big days for Watson and other Packers receivers.

Matthew Berry notes that the Kalief Raymond situation is over and targets are now being focused where they belong on Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, making both viable again in the Bears offense.

Matthew Berry notes that the Kalief Raymond situation is over and targets are now being focused where they belong on Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, making both viable again in the Bears offense.

Loveland benefits from backup quarterback Bajan's accuracy compared to Caleb Williams' vulnerability in that area; Bajan's strong suit is accuracy, which is helpful for Loveland and other receivers who need to be targeted in a way where they can take it and run.

Matthew Berry ranks Dallas Goedert as a top-eight tight end play for the week, citing high confidence in him as Jalen Hurts' security blanket and the only Eagles pass catcher he trusts given the disconnect between Hurts and the coaching staff on how to utilize other receivers.

Dalton Schultz gets inflated target volume when Nico Collins is out; Jake Trowbridge notes Schultz won't get his 14 targets or whatever when Collins plays, suggesting those targets are largely meaningless and that Schultz should be benched when Collins is active.

Daniel Jones' situation is deteriorating week to week. The Giants continue to struggle with route redundancy issues, with Keenan Allen, Jalen Warren, and Josh Downs all occupying the same parts of the field, making the offense easier to defend.

David Montgomery has fallen off significantly since his multi-touchdown Week 1 performance; Jake Trowbridge notes his arrow is pointed downward while Woody Marks looks better and is getting more goal-line touches and scoring touchdowns since Week 1.

Matthew Berry identifies Njoku (referred to as Fannin in the transcript) as getting high-value tight end work for the Browns, providing redundancy and making him startable in Week 5. He's receiving the type of targets and role that would normally be expected from a featured tight end.

Matthew Berry identifies Boston as getting enough work with big-play upside, making him startable in Week 5 against the Jets. The matchup is favorable for the Browns passing game, and Boston's role as a deep threat provides consistent opportunity.

Matthew Berry notes Watson is now startable again after converting sacks into scramble first downs—a huge EPA boost compared to Week 1 when he ate five sacks. While he doesn't look like his old Houston form, the ability to tuck and run with scrambles represents a significant functional improvement that makes the Browns offense viable in Week 5 against the Jets.

Matthew Berry is starting DK Metcalf against the Colts but advises lowering expectations significantly from the previous week. Even the passes Aaron Rodgers threw Metcalf's way looked poor, with many resulting from busted coverage rather than clean offensive execution.

Drake May showed improvement against Buffalo but only did the bare minimum expected in a good matchup; Matthew Berry cautions that he is matchup-dependent and should not be considered fully back. The Raiders are a tougher matchup than Buffalo, so May's fantasy viability is limited this week.

Jake expresses disappointment in Garrett Wilson's probable output in Week 5 against Cleveland, noting that Isaiah Williams does not provide the same defensive stress that A.D. Mitchell would. Without Mitchell's presence to create one-on-one opportunities, Wilson's ceiling is capped despite a slightly better matchup than the previous week.

Hunter Henry gets a significant bump if Ramondre Stevenson is out; he received heavy usage last week and is known as Drake May's security blanket. Matthew Berry highlights Henry as the biggest beneficiary of a potential Stevenson absence.

Isaiah Likely is welcomed back into startability for the Commanders; Matthew Berry indicates he wants to start Likely along with Malik Nabors in this matchup.

Jake suggests Isaiah Williams could be started as a flex play in Week 5 if desperate, noting he caught a touchdown and had 70 yards last week despite limited targets. While not a high-ceiling play, he provides flex-level upside in a pinch.

J.K. Dobbins cannot catch a pass, which is the only thing keeping his fantasy value afloat; Matthew Berry has already benched him and notes that R.J. Harvey's dump-off role is the reason Harvey is the preferred back.

Matthew Berry notes that while Jamar Chase did practice, he's assuming Chase is out for Week 5 until seeing a full practice and protocol clearance. This uncertainty significantly impacts the Bengals' passing game against Miami.

Matthew Berry notes Jalen Hurts is 'so inaccurate right now, really off target, worst numbers of his career,' which is leading to a lack of yards after catch for receivers like Lemon. The inaccuracy means the ball is not being placed in the right spot for receivers to catch in stride and move with it.

Jameis Winston got into double-digit air dot (average depth of target) in his second full game after being in the mid-single digits through the first half; Matthew Berry is not starting him but notes he's attacking downfield to Malik Nabors.

Jalen Warren should be started regardless of Rico Dowd's status because he has proven himself and earned Aaron Rodgers' trust through recent playing time. Even if the Steelers attempt to force Dowd into more carries, Dowd is unlikely to receive passes from Rodgers in this game.

Matthew Berry notes that Jalen Wright is not a significant obstacle to Ollie Gordon's opportunity, suggesting Gordon's role is secure despite Wright's presence on the Dolphins roster.

Jonathan Taylor is a multiple touchdown machine facing the Steelers, who rank bottom five in yards after contact per rush. The Steelers' poor tackling at the second level means Taylor can break long runs to the paint, making him a strong start in this matchup.

Matthew Berry expresses confidence in Jordan Love's ability, noting the Packers' historically bad run game forces them into a pass-heavy offense; Love is being thrust into a situation where he'll face the Bears defense on the road, which has shown significant home/road splits (30% more passing yards and 3x more touchdowns allowed on the road vs. at home).

Josh Downs is getting two-wide receiver snap shares in the Colts offense, but Matthew Berry indicates this is 'not real' value given the route redundancy issues where Downs, Keenan Allen, and Josh Warren occupy the same parts of the field.

Despite earning two wide receiver snap shares, Downs has struggled to produce because he occupies the same parts of the field as Keenan Allen and Tyler Warren, creating route redundancy that makes the Colts offense easier to defend. Matthew Berry notes this field congestion is the primary reason for Downs' lack of production despite the snap opportunity.

Justin Herbert should not be considered a potential starting quarterback for fantasy teams until he proves otherwise; Matthew Berry has already benched him and says 'we're done with Justin Herbert' as a viable option.

Keaton Mitchell is seeding work from Amari Hampton and should be rostered; Matthew Berry emphasizes he should be on rosters despite the Chargers' injury situation.

Matthew Berry notes that Keenan Allen, along with Josh Warren and Josh Downs, all seem to occupy the same parts of the field, creating route redundancy issues that make the Colts offense easier to defend. This structural problem persists even when Allen is playing.

Matthew Berry identifies Kenyon Sadiq as a tight end one back-end option in Week 5, providing a viable tight end alternative in the Browns-Jets matchup.

Matthew Berry reports Kyle Monangai is out after a giant game, which came because of a swift disappointment (injury). Berry expects Monangai will reassume the one role when healthy, but Roschon Johnson should be added in the interim.

Matthew Berry notes that Makai Lemon's production hasn't been great, but he's seeing an increase in role; Lemon is already 115 routes deep but has only 15 targets, suggesting potential for a second-half breakout as a rookie working through early-season adjustment.

Lemon is 115 routes deep with only 15 targets for 10 receptions; all advanced metrics are poor with a short average depth of target and efficiency around 25 routes per first down (target is ~10). Matthew Berry expresses concern that despite an increase in role, the Eagles drafted him and then immediately struggled to figure out how to use him, compounded by the absence of DeVante Smith. The efficiency has not materialized despite recent volume increase.

Matthew Berry states the Eagles will try to force creative volume to Lemon, and he did double his previous season high in targets last week, but Berry emphasizes 'it was not worth much to your fantasy team' because the Eagles drafted him and then immediately struggled to figure out how to use him, especially without DeVante Smith.

Malik Nabors had a strong game last week with 100 yards and his first touchdown of the season; however, Matthew Berry does not have high hopes for him against the Commanders despite the soft matchup on paper, expecting only a respectable day rather than a big performance.

Jake highlights Malik Washington as a player who should be rostered everywhere, noting he's getting diverse usage including jet sweeps, running plays, deep routes, hook routes, and option routes. The Dolphins are forcing him the ball with creative play-calling, making him a high-usage player despite not having universal roster adoption.

Lloyd is at the point of being dropped from rosters; the speaker suggests he should be dropped rather than held.

Matthew Berry highlights Matthew Golden as part of a three-headed monster pass catcher room alongside Christian Watson and Tucker Craft; describes the group as one of the most talented anywhere with field-stretching, possession, yards-after-catch, reliability, hands, tough grabs, and end zone capabilities. Golden is positioned to benefit from the Packers' historically bad run game forcing volume into the passing game.

Golden is positioned for a big game against the Bears defense on the road in Green Bay; the Bears gave up 30% more passing yards and three times more touchdowns on the road than at home last year.

Michael Mayer is better suited as a tight end two for a team than a tight end one; Matthew Berry notes that people won't roster him because of the backup label, but he's a legitimate tight end who benefits from the Raiders' increased 12-personnel sets and Brock Bowers' presence.

Michael Pittman will miss the Colts-Steelers game, removing a key receiving option from the Indianapolis offense.

Jake identifies Mike Gesicki as the Bengals' first true tight end one in recent memory, noting he's finally proven to be a featured option. While some production is touchdown-dependent, that's typical for tight ends outside the top six. With Higgins and Chase potentially out, Gesicki should be a featured target in the red zone and is recommended as a start in Week 5.

Matthew Berry mentions Mitchell Tinsley as a potential whisper-type candidate stepping into opportunity with Higgins and Chase potentially out. Jake expresses reluctance to trust either Tinsley or Myers in this situation, suggesting the opportunity may be too uncertain to rely on.

Nico Collins is the Houston Texans offense; when he suits up, the team scores 31 and 30 points, but when he doesn't play, they haven't cracked 20. Jake Trowbridge notes that when Collins plays, he feels much better starting other guys in the offense because drives are sustained and scoring opportunities are more fruitful.

Matthew Berry mentions starting Nico Collins for Houston but provides no additional context or analysis beyond the mention.

Matthew Berry prefers Ollie Gordon over other running back options like Will Shipley and Braxton Miller, noting that even though Gordon wasn't efficient overall against Minnesota, breaking off a 50+ yard play as a running back provides more upside than other gross running back options. Gordon's big-play ability makes him preferable 10 times out of 10 compared to alternatives.

Matthew Berry prefers Ollie Gordon's ceiling upside over Tony Pollard's floor safety in the Titans backfield. Gordon offers more upside but less safety than Pollard, making him the choice for rosters needing ceiling plays rather than floor consistency.

Matthew Berry states Parker Washington is the only wide receiver in the Eagles-Jaguars game he truly wants to start, though he acknowledges some people don't want to start him because his production has declined from a 36% target share in weeks one and two to 14% in the last two weeks.

Pat Freiermuth and Donald Washington are both splitting carries and targets, canceling each other out in terms of fantasy value. Combined with Aaron Rodgers' inaccuracy, the Steelers' receiving options present mixed signals for fantasy purposes.

Quentin Johnston is straight up out for the Chargers matchup against Denver, escalating quickly from earlier in the week.

Jake highlights Judkins as a breakout candidate after catching 6 of 7 targets for 43 yards last week—unexpected receiving production from a back drafted in the Nick Chubb mold. Now at 14% team target share and 80% backfield opportunity share, Judkins is a dual-threat back on a league-average offense with elite opportunity metrics, making him a definite start in Week 5.

Ramondre Stevenson is the clear pass-catching back for the Patriots; Jake Trowbridge prefers him over Travion Henderson if he plays, noting that Stevenson and Henderson split rushing carries roughly evenly last week but Stevenson is who the Patriots trust in the passing game.

R.J. Harvey is the dump-off king for the Broncos right now and is the preferred back over J.K. Dobbins; he ended up with almost 20 PPR points despite doing almost none of it on the ground, making him a viable start.

Roman Wilson took snaps from Jeremy Bernard, but Matthew Berry expresses uncertainty about playing both receivers together. The Steelers' receiving corps is crowded with Wilson, Bernard, Pat Freiermuth, and Donald Washington all competing for targets, creating mixed signals about usage.

Matthew Berry recommends adding Roschon Johnson as the fill-in back while Kyle Monangai is out; Johnson should see increased opportunity in the Bears backfield.

Moore is mentioned as a hypothetical fourth receiving option for the Packers against the Bears defense on the road; the speaker suggests he could be a speculative play if desperate or looking for a fourth guy to target in this matchup.

Matthew Berry reports that Tee Higgins is pretty much out for Week 5 against the Dolphins due to injury, significantly impacting the Bengals passing game and creating opportunity for secondary receivers.

Jake Trowbridge has to start Tony Pollard in a fantasy league but only because he has no other options; this suggests limited confidence in Pollard's production against the Texans.

Matthew Berry characterizes Pollard as a safe floor play for the Titans despite the backfield split with Ty J Spears. Pollard typically receives a couple targets per week and converts them effectively. Berry notes Pollard has had 13 of 14 goal-to-go attempts, but the Titans don't reach the red zone often enough. However, Berry prefers Ollie Gordon's ceiling upside over Pollard's floor in a PPR context.

Trey Harris is Matthew Berry's hopeful Charger this week; took four weeks to exceed 80% route participation but hit 91% against Seattle (partly due to Lad McConkie leaving early), and led the team in targets with 24% share the prior week; with McConkie questionable and Quentin Johnston out, Harris could have a strong day and finally leapfrog Johnston.

Trey Tucker, while potentially flawed, benefits from the Raiders' play-action game when protection is solid; with defenses forced to account for Bowers, Jente, and Mayer, Tucker sometimes finds himself running free on play-action, which has contributed to his recent success.

Troy Franklin is being added by Matthew Berry as a potential option for the Broncos, representing the one light he's keeping on for a team he is not enthused about.

Jake expresses concern about Tua Tagovailoa's offensive output, noting that Willis (likely referring to Tagovailoa) still hasn't gone over 220 yards passing except in Week 1, and even that was against the Vikings. Jake wants to see Tagovailoa run more and tuck-and-run when he doesn't like what he sees, as he looks athletic with the ball in his hand but hasn't demonstrated that ability yet.

Matthew Berry identifies Tucker Craft as part of a three-headed monster pass catcher room alongside Matthew Golden and Christian Watson; describes the group as one of the most talented anywhere with field-stretching, possession, yards-after-catch, reliability, hands, tough grabs, and end zone capabilities. Craft is positioned to benefit from the Packers' historically bad run game forcing volume into the passing game.

Craft is positioned for a big game against the Bears defense on the road in Green Bay; the Bears gave up 30% more passing yards and three times more touchdowns on the road than at home last year.

Tyler Warren is earning nearly seven targets per game but has an ADOT (average depth of target) of just 2.3 yards, which borders on running back territory. This extremely short target depth severely limits his fantasy upside despite the target volume.

Matthew Berry praises Tyson Bagent's performance in relief, noting he did a good job keeping the buses on schedule in Ben Johnson's offense, which is all that's needed in that system. This suggests Bagent is a capable backup option.

Jake Trowbridge is considering starting Will Shipley in week five, indicating the running back has emerged as a viable option despite being a mid-draft pick or waiver acquisition; this reflects significant roster churn and the need to deploy bench players due to injuries or underperformance elsewhere.

Matthew Berry notes Shipley's rush and receiving yard prop combined is 53, which feels very low for a player expected to shoulder the backfield load; however, Berry expresses concern about Damian Pierce's elevation to the roster potentially limiting Shipley's utilization and dump-off opportunities from Jalen Hurts, making it difficult to guarantee even five catches and 25 yards receiving.

Shipley has had double-digit touches just once in his NFL career, and in that game he didn't cross double-digit fantasy points even in PPR formats; Matthew Berry suggests using Shipley only if absolutely direly needed due to limited historical production and role uncertainty.

Jake presents Will Shipley as a comparison point for running back desperation in Week 5, suggesting Braxton Miller is preferable to Shipley in the current landscape. Shipley is not recommended as a starting option.

Woody Marks looks better than David Montgomery and is getting more goal-line touches and scoring touchdowns since Week 1; Jake Trowbridge is comfortable starting him this week against the Titans.