Jet Cleared For Takeoff

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

39 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Aug 12, 2026

Published

Wed, August 12, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

George KittleTyler WarrenAlec PierceBrock PurdyCaleb WilliamsColston LovelandDontayvion WicksGarrett WilsonGeno SmithIsiah PachecoJahmyr GibbsJosh JacobsLuther BurdenMakai Lemon

Player analysis

Player insights

Alec Pierce

NegativeInjury12:02

Alec Pierce is dealing with a persistent ankle injury that creates uncertainty regarding his role, despite his significant contract. The source expresses doubt about his ability to maintain efficiency, which is his primary path to fantasy relevance.

Insight page

Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection22:30

The source expresses regret for not pairing Brock Purdy with George Kittle more often, noting that Purdy's performance and the Niners' offensive scheme make him a strong fantasy asset.

Insight page

Caleb Williams

PositiveBust30:01

The source predicts a down season for Caleb Williams, projecting him to fall outside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks. Concerns include his low completion percentage, high off-target rate, and long time-to-throw, which were masked by a high-performing defense and an easy schedule last year.

Insight page

Colston Loveland

PositiveBreakout26:41

Colston Loveland is the source's TE1, highlighted for his elite usage and efficiency in the final four games of the season, including playoffs. He averaged 11.5 targets and 35 routes per game with a 33.3% target-per-route rate. He is viewed as a 'freak' athlete and a key piece of the Bears' offense.

Insight page

Dontayvion Wicks

PositiveSleeper10:38

Dontayvion Wicks is identified as a primary beneficiary of Makai Lemon's injury. Wicks demonstrated strong efficiency last season, particularly against man coverage with a 29% target-per-route rate and nearly two yards per route. He is recommended as a late-round pick or early-season flex play.

Insight page

Garrett Wilson

PositiveBreakout23:34

Garrett Wilson is projected for a career year and a top-eight wide receiver finish. Despite poor quarterback play in previous seasons, he has maintained consistent production. The addition of Geno Smith is viewed as a significant upgrade for his fantasy outlook, and the presence of Adonai Mitchell should help space the field.

Insight page

Geno Smith

PositiveProjection24:49

Geno Smith is considered the best quarterback Garrett Wilson has played with for fantasy purposes. While the source acknowledges he may be a below-average real-life quarterback, his ability to throw deep and outside the numbers fits well with the Jets' receiving corps.

Insight page

George Kittle

PositiveProjection18:36

George Kittle is expected to be ready for Week 1, with the source noting he is moving well without braces. Despite the international travel, Kittle remains a high-ceiling producer, particularly in PPR formats, due to his elite efficiency against zone coverage and consistent target share.

Insight page

PositiveUsage21:12

George Kittle is a high-priority PPR target due to his elite efficiency against zone coverage, boasting a 24% team target share and 2.5 yards per route run. The source notes that pairing him with Brock Purdy is a strong strategy.

Insight page

Isiah Pacheco

NegativeInjury15:10

Isiah Pacheco's fantasy stock has plummeted following a knee MCL sprain. While the team expects him to be ready for the opener, the source is skeptical and suggests he is only worth drafting in very deep leagues as a late-round option.

Insight page

Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveProjection15:18

Jahmyr Gibbs is viewed as the clear lead back for the Lions, with the source suggesting he should be drafted early due to the lack of a viable secondary option in the backfield.

Insight page

Josh Jacobs

NegativeInjury5:19

Josh Jacobs is dealing with a groin injury that, while not believed to be serious, adds to a growing list of concerns including off-field issues and a heavy career workload that appeared to impact his efficiency last season. The source notes he is currently being drafted in the top three rounds (ADP 30) without a discount, making him a player to avoid.

Insight page

Luther Burden

PositiveBreakout6:49

Despite a confirmed groin strain expected to sideline him for a month, the source remains bullish on Luther Burden for the upcoming season. Burden is described as wildly efficient, boasting a 25% target-per-route rate and 2.7 yards per route, and the source believes he will be targeted heavily once healthy for Week 1.

Insight page

Makai Lemon

NegativeRole8:40

Makai Lemon is unlikely to start early in the season for the Eagles after missing half of spring practices and training camp due to a hamstring injury. The source advises against drafting him with the expectation of immediate production, suggesting he will need to prove himself in game action before becoming a viable lineup option.

Insight page

MarShawn Lloyd

PositiveRole6:30

Marshawn Lloyd is emerging as a legitimate threat to Josh Jacobs' workload in the Packers' backfield, with high drumbeats surrounding his potential role.

Insight page

Tyler Warren

PositiveSleeper13:11

Tyler Warren is highlighted as an undervalued tight end who should be in the conversation alongside Colston Loveland. He is described as a 'freak of nature' who is integrated into the goal-line package, making him a strong target for two-tight-end sets in large tournaments.

Insight page

PositiveValue28:17

Tyler Warren is noted as an extremely talented tight end who could be a league winner if drafted in the sixth round, though he competes for targets with Colston Loveland.

Insight page

Zay Flowers

PositiveProjection34:34

Zay Flowers is ranked as a top-five wide receiver. He is a high-volume player with a 96% route participation rate and elite efficiency metrics (25% target per route). The source dismisses concerns about his touchdown production, citing positive regression, and views the addition of Jacoby Lane as a benefit that will reduce defensive pressure.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

462

0:00This is an iHeartPodcast. Guaranteed human. businesses already use Homebase to keep their teams on track.

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0:09Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.

0:15What's up everybody? Howdy, hello, and a hi-oh silver to you.

0:19Another edition of the Fantasy Football Weekly, off-season edition with your friend and faithful narrator, John Laghezza, is the same handle over on X.

0:26My friend and yours, Mr. Jake Trowbridge. Jake, another week in the books.

0:31Could only mean another, I think I've lost track.

0:33I had to have tacked on another 50 drafts.

0:36How are you doing? That's still absurd to me.

0:39I have to go back to that. Last week I asked a couple of questions about your draft process, but I've got

0:46one more for you because as somebody who does so many drafts at this time of the year, have you felt like

0:53you've gotten away from the sort of live in-person feel of a draft?

0:57Like, do you still like if you have a home league to have like an old school draft board and to sort of take things slow?

1:05Or are you so far past that now? No, that would be the one difference.

1:10The one thing that makes it real are the people, the friends and using draft stickers, opposed to, you know, this very cold and automated process.

1:18But there are a lot of large field tournaments going on right now.

1:23I do my own ranks. I customize them. And the best way to test them is to do just that.

1:29I battle test them and lay out automated ranks.

1:32And I kind of, you know, you're running them all the time and there's different sites to play on at different price points.

1:39So yeah, I'm pretty active in the draft streets.

1:42You'll see me on DraftKings and Underdog, of course, Draft2's Fantasy.

1:45I'm really a little bit of everywhere. When you see that moving AVG avatar, you know, that's me.

1:51That's good. I just didn't know if you've gotten so far removed that you can't even enjoy some simple trash talk or

1:58looking a league mate in the eye as you steal their soul and their pick at the same time.

2:04I wasn't sure. No, no, no. The redrafting takes up so much time.

2:08I'm getting ready to make that transfer over. We might even talk about that at some point.

2:14And it can be difficult for me having the best ball brain on so firmly for so long, having to make that transfer to redraft.

2:22I'd rather focus my redraft into fewer leagues with higher stakes because there's so much time that goes into it.

2:28I spend a lot of time on these leagues, which is also why I love best ball so much.

2:34Having two young kids, it's easy to manage a hundred teams because there's no management.

2:39So let's get into the news and notes, which is pushing hot and heavy.

2:43We've got a little kind of program shift, which I want to hat tip you for instead of turning this into a straight news desk.

2:51We're going to try and segment the show into news and notes, how it affects ADP in the drafting landscape, which matters a ton right now, right?

3:00Keeping ADP fresh, staying in front of it as they change and then doing more of a traditional, maybe fantasy episode.

3:07Today, we're going to do some bold predictions. Each of us have a pair of them.

3:12Man, one of yours I really like, but I want to push up against.

3:16I guess we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

3:19All right. First across the news desk today was Josh Jacobs.

3:23He's been a running theme, but now it's not just off field stuff popped up.

3:27DMP with a groin. Again, the only quote is not believed to be anything serious.

3:32I saw the video. He doesn't look great, but I already had to take an off season L from Malik neighbors and

3:39judging him with that softball gate that he was showing off in air quotes.

3:44What do you think about Josh Jacobs? Potential is there.

3:47Are you buying the dip? There's a threat in Marshawn Lloyd.

3:50How are you tackling Josh Jacobs for the Packers?

3:53John, it's just another thing against him. If this was it, if this was a one-off and oh, Josh Jacobs popped up with a little injury, whatever.

4:02We can navigate that. We shouldn't overanalyze something like that.

4:05That's not expected to be a long-term injury, but it's another thing on top of so many other things that are already going against Josh Jacobs.

4:13There's the off field stuff. There's the crazy big workload from last year and his whole career, frankly, which seemed to start affecting him last year.

4:22There is the addition or the health, at least of Marshawn Lloyd.

4:25There's just a lot of factors that I don't like for Jacobs.

4:29So just pushes me even further away from him.

4:32Yeah, I'm usually making the price-based argument. That's been my issue.

4:36Jacobs is still firmly inside the top three rounds.

4:38He's carrying a 30 ADP. That's consensus. I was using fantasy pros.

4:42MB fantasy life also has a good page. They're all going to be pretty similar regardless.

4:47Josh Jacobs, not really getting much of a discount.

4:50You could see why, but it really has to do with a ton of volume.

4:55He had almost 16 rushes a game and you're getting almost a half a fantasy point per snap because he's so prevalent near the goal line.

5:03Jordan Love not really kind of running it in.

5:06That's all his game, but he never really had a real threat.

5:10The drum beats for Lloyd are really high. So I've been staying away from Jacobs.

5:15I think I need to see it. You mentioned it.

5:18Every kind of news slash note, it's just another ding.

5:21It's another red flag, but it's not being reflected in the price.

5:25So where would he have to go? Maybe in the fourth round, would you be willing to snap?

5:30Or do you think you're out? I mean, I'm just out.

5:34I've been out on Josh Jacobs. I can't see myself getting back in.

5:38If he's in there at like the 12th round, maybe I'll hold my nose and think about it.

5:44It feels weird to say as a Packers fan, but no, I'm just entirely out on the guy.

5:50Yeah, I would definitely second that. Just four yards per attempt, just over three yards after contact per attempt.

5:56We're starting to see a lack of explosivity and that's normally the sign of the aging running back.

6:01His age might not be so much on the calendar, so much as the touches.

6:06This guy is always good for so many touches.

6:09Next up, it is Camp Hype superstar, Luther Burden for the Bears.

6:13His ADP is already starting to sink pretty fast, though it appears to have found a floor in the mid-50s.

6:19We have a confirmed groin strain. He's expected to miss a full month.

6:23They are expecting week one. Now he did play.

6:26This isn't a rookie. He's familiar with the playbook.

6:29The one thing that Burden himself mentioned was timing.

6:32Johnson's offense is very much predicated on timing being in the right spot, which Burden attributes his success to repetitions.

6:38Where are you on Burden? I'm not out. I'm still buying, but the dip, I wish it was a little bit dippier, maybe.

6:45It's dippy, but it's not like dippy egg dippy, you know, where that yolk is so soft, you can go ahead and

6:52dip a slice of toast in it. It's not getting there yet.

6:56Maybe it will eventually, John. Like if we just haven't had enough time for sort of the typical drafters to get back

7:03in and push the ADP down, you know, maybe it'll happen because I was out on Luther Burden previously.

7:09I just felt like his cost was a little too presumptive.

7:13We were, it's going to tie into something I'm going to talk about later, but I felt like we were overrating Luther

7:20Burden and his potential impact on the offense. So this might actually get it down to a spot where I'm comfortable drafting

7:27him because I don't mind that he is missing this time right now.

7:31I'd rather it be now certainly than at the beginning of the season.

7:35If he's healthy for week one, I do have some confidence that he'll be targeted heavily.

7:40So we'll see. Yeah. Burden's so wildly efficient, which is the harder thing to replicate.

7:45They did vacate some targets with more, but 25% target per out 2.7 yards per out was 11 yards per target.

7:52I mean, yeah, just crazy 7.2 yards after the catch per reception.

7:55We know that's the strength of his game and Johnson's very good at dialing it up, which is why I'm not going to get away from it.

8:04But again, yeah, I wish the dip was a little more silky, let's say.

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8:37Next one up is a player both you and I were drafting.

8:40Kind of stings the nostrils a little bit. Our guy, Makai Lemon for the Eagles.

8:45At this point, the quote is, at this point, it's fair to doubt Makai Lemon will start early in the season.

8:52Per their beat reports, he's missed half of spring practices, half of training camp due to that hamstring injury.

8:58You know, we mentioned that happening at the same time as Devonta, the Smith injury doesn't seem like a big deal.

9:05He's fine. Not so much for Lemon. What do you think, Jake?

9:08Lemon or Lemon-y? Oh, I was such a Lemonhead.

9:11I've been a big Makai Lemon truther. The thing, the context I should say with this is it's not that they're projecting

9:18that he won't be available week one. It's simply that he's missed so much time this offseason as a rookie that they

9:25don't feel comfortable trotting him out there as one of the lead guys, which I understand.

9:30And that makes sense. The hope is that the talent is still so prevalent, the draft capital so high from the Eagles,

9:37that he does work his way to the center of the offense very quickly once he sort of gets some game action.

9:44But if you're drafting him right now, you can't feel confident that you're going to want to start him in the first,

9:51what, I don't know, four to five weeks? Like if you see it right away in week one, you'll be shocked.

9:58Even week two, I don't think you'd want to get him in your lineup just based on some of these comments and maybe it was a fluke.

10:07So it's something that you'll have to see him produce fairly routinely before you get him into your lineups, or I would.

10:14So I'm staying away for right now. Arg! Audible sigh!

10:17Audible sigh, Jake. What really kills when one of your guys pops up on these reports.

10:22And like I mentioned, the rookie not having that benefit of continuity and repetitions under the belt where it's not just timing here.

10:29It is establishing that connection with Hurts. They're also going through a lot of changes in Philadelphia.

10:35I think the big winner here has got to be Dontavian Wicks.

10:38He hasn't really moved up yet. I guess people not really buying it.

10:43I was digging into the spreadsheet. I get it.

10:45There's not a ton there. I mean, he was very good at getting first downs.

10:50He got a first down every 11 routes, which is very good.

10:54He was over 11 air yards per target. But other than that, just not a ton there.

10:59I guess I just revamped my 2026 spreadsheet, you can tell.

11:03Because I separated man and zone. I really wanted to get a better idea of where these players were excelling.

11:09So I would have to maybe back up to bring Strzok on Wicks a little bit.

11:1429% target per rate against man. Almost two yards per route.

11:18And a very good EPA with an extremely good success rate.

11:21So if Smith is getting a lot of attention and Wicks looks like he's going to be manned up on the outside, he could still be a threat.

11:30But I love him as a late round pick.

11:33Just in case, worst case scenario, something happens with Lemon and there's a bit of a setback, let's say.

11:39You're getting a, he's going to be every down receiver.

11:42It looks like he might be an every down receiver for the first month.

11:47Anyway, more of a redraft pick right now. I think Wicks is a wonderful, you know, back end pick or possible flex

11:54play early in the season while no one is looking his direction.

11:58Next up, it was one of my guys early, but it's also why I don't invite injuries.

12:03Alec Pierce, when we saw the ankle pop up, then it was he had a second shot.

12:08Oh wait, he didn't have a second shot. And then I thought, wait, I don't know which is better or not, which

12:15is better to have the shot or not have the shot.

12:19What do you think about Pierce right now? There's a lot of uncertainty there for a guy who got a tremendous contract to not be starting right away.

12:28Just tell us what's going to happen. Why do we have to keep doing this?

12:32I don't, I don't like it. I don't feel confident in Alec, but I've had my own Alec Pierce woes already.

12:39I came into this with a little bit of bias because I just didn't believe the big contract was going to be enough to get him consistent targets.

12:48Anyways, I still thought he would be low target, high efficiency.

12:52So now with this injury that just keeps on going, what's the efficiency going to look like for a guy who relies entirely on efficiency?

12:59I don't like it for Pierce. People are pivoting towards Josh Downs, which I completely understand.

13:05I myself, this is just pumping Tyler Warren further and further up my draft ranks because I was already flirting.

13:11I felt like Colston Loveland was getting all of the off season love for these tight ends.

13:16And I thought Tyler Warren should be in that conversation.

13:19I might flip flop and put Warren above Loveland at this point.

13:23Whoa. Okay. Now we're jumping the shark. You had me pushing Warren up.

13:27I put him right behind it. Love what happened to be my guy, not to bury the lead for later.

13:34But he's really one of my guys. I think it'd make a tremendous impact.

13:38Regardless, all kidding aside, I don't think you're that far off base.

13:42Tyler Warren is a freak of nature. He is so good.

13:46And I think we allowed the Daniel Jones injury in a way the Colts just completely, you know, took that nosedive and

13:53floundered at the end of the season. And I think we're just punishing everybody.

13:57And maybe we shouldn't. He was a rookie and just absolutely dominated.

14:01He's also part of the goal line package. I mean, he's not going to get all the carries from JT.

14:07But he's part of that package. The Chiefs became very popular for that.

14:11Those fake shifty handoffs. We don't know if they're passes.

14:14They keep changing in the box. It was a pass.

14:18It was a reception. It wasn't. It was a run.

14:21But that really works. You get the ball in the hands of a playmaker.

14:25I think Warren is really undervalued right now. I've actually been doing some too tight end sets in those big tournaments trying to be a little bit unique.

14:34As far as Pierce goes, I would push back just one thing.

14:38I don't want to argue about the efficiency. He was highly efficient.

14:42However, I think the way they used him is one of the ways to be sustainable through efficiency.

14:48And he's so very good at winning in the outer levels in the play action game.

14:53So that was what they brought him back for.

14:55The threat of Jones plus Taylor to run in the backfield opens up any defense that is going to allow Pierce, who I don't think gets enough credit.

15:04But again, I don't think you're that far off base.

15:08All right. Next up, Isaiah Pacheco for the Lions.

15:10Somebody I really wasn't drafting. Anyway, he's now sunk like an absolute stone.

15:15I was joking on Twitter. I'm moving Jameer Gibbs up to the negative 101.

15:19I'm now drafting Gibbs before. If I have the first pick, I'm drafting him before I walk into the room because it's the only place left to go.

15:28Pacheco sprained his MCL. Campbell, who can be a bit overly optimistic in my opinion, but I like I would run through a wall for him.

15:36But I don't know if I'm buying it. He said he'll be ready for the opener.

15:41I don't know if I like Pacheco in the first place.

15:45Now he's a sprained knee. What do you think about Pacheco?

15:48Would you be buying the dip here? He's like into the 150s now.

15:52Well, you and I were talking about this before we started recording that there is a point where these running backs in

15:59the late rounds get so grody where you're drafting names that you're like, I can't even believe he's still in the league, let alone on this draft list.

16:08So there's a world, yeah, where Pacheco is a very, very late round running back.

16:13Makes sense if you're in a super deep league or something.

16:16In general, no, no, it's still going to be Jameer Gibbs.

16:20I don't think there's going to be a true number two in this backfield to worry about for our drafting purposes.

16:27Interesting. You kind of took the next question. Where do you think they go?

16:31Somebody else wants to touch the ball. I mean, that's just a fact of life here.

16:36Now, Sione Vakia, I've heard that name get mentioned, but he's banged up also the other names on the roster.

16:43Jake, I'm not going to lie. I never do.

16:45I'm very transparent. I don't know who these people are.

16:49Jacob Saylors, Raheem Blackshear, I know that name. Jabari Small.

16:52If anybody should we know about, you're a lot more plugged into the college stuff than I am.

16:57You've done a really great job, actually, so far in the little nuggets we've gotten about these college players.

17:04I think you've been in front of the market.

17:06Do any of those guys warrant a 20th rounder, maybe?

17:10No. I don't want to do it without you kidding me.

17:13I would say the only name that I even really know is Raheem Blackshear from his time with the Panthers, but he

17:20was more of a special teams guy then. He had occasional dips in running back.

17:25It wouldn't shock me if we get to a point where Pacheco isn't going to be available or healthy, that they take

17:32a quick dip into the free agency market, because there are some interesting veteran names that are still out there.

17:38Najee Harris is still lingering around. I thought he might get scooped up.

17:42So I just don't know if the guy's on the roster yet, if they're going to rely on somebody else.

17:49Yeah. James Conner has been an interesting name popping up in trade talks.

17:53I think they're telegraphed that he could probably have had cheap, and that would be a perfect fit.

17:58I was actually just doing a little bit of research.

18:02He popped in a lot of areas. I know his best seasons, James Conner, are firmly in the rearview mirror.

18:08But for a backup, he could be interesting. I say that because he's starting to get drafted.

18:13I'm not sure so much it's for Arizona. I don't know how impactful he'll be for them, though they're talking him up.

18:20That really could be a trade bait thing. Anyway, very last name.

18:24And I want to tell you, I'm really digging this kind of format shift before we get into the fantasy stuff.

18:31That was a really good flow. Hopefully everyone is enjoying that.

18:34Last one is George Kittle, Superstation 5G Wave 17.

18:37George Kittle won. Looks like we're now at a quote-unquote high level of confidence at this point that George Kittle will play week one.

18:45I saw some of those tapes. He's moving around unimpeded with no braces or anything.

18:50He was cutting and jumping. They said he looks ready to go.

18:53The reason I mention that, I'm not sure if everyone is keen to this, week one is an international game, and a

19:00lot of people, like myself, were definitely not anticipating that he made the trip.

19:05It just seemed like too much hassle, right? For somebody that might play, might be limited, might not play, why drag him

19:12literally halfway across the globe to play a game of football?

19:15If he's going to play week one, I'm feeling pretty confident about him.

19:20Where he's going right. That game is in Melbourne.

19:22Thanks, Robbie. Gosh, there's very few tight ends with the weekly ceiling of George Kittle.

19:27So talk to us about Kittle, where you think that ceiling peak may have moved to, and whether or not you're interested in him at ADP 100.

19:36He definitely sticks out at that point from a spike week perspective.

19:40Yeah, I mean, George Kittle has been one of the most consistent elite fantasy producers.

19:44Maybe not every single week, but the highs are extremely high for George Kittle.

19:49And he's been known to play through all this stuff.

19:52That's why I've been saying all offseason, it's not going to surprise me if both George Kittle and Tucker Kraft are suiting

19:59up week one, because they just, they're those types of dudes.

20:02Kittle especially is the, what is it, the black knight from Monty Python.

20:07He keeps getting limbs chopped off, and he keeps pretending like it's no big deal, and he's going to play through it anyways.

20:14So they're just flesh wounds for George Kittle at this point.

20:17And I think that as long as he says he's going to be out there, we can believe him because he's going to push for it.

20:26I don't know that I'm ready to start him in week one.

20:29Like I'll draft him. I think week one, I want to have just a short-term contingency plan just in case.

20:36But after that, I'm along for the ride. Yeah, you absolutely should.

20:40I think that's a really great point. Draft Kittle.

20:42And then maybe wait and maybe make like a week zero add at tight end to figure it out.

20:48I would even argue if they're saying he's going to play full-time, I think you could play him.

20:54Again, he's just so efficient. Last year, there was even a little bit of volume.

20:59He had more than six targets a game, 24% target per route, almost two and a quarter yards per route, first down

21:06every seven and a half routes, which is fantastic.

21:09He catches everything that's near him. He beats man.

21:12He's an absolute zone killer. 24% team target share against his own two and a half yards per route.

21:18I mean, incredible success rate. Big time EPA. The Niners know where their bread is buttered against the zone.

21:24And it's George Kittle. If you're playing PPR especially, he's a really big time target for me again now.

21:30I was also so into Purdy. I'm kind of kicking myself in my behind because I wasn't pairing Kittle with Purdy because I was worried.

21:38I thought maybe Purdy, you know, he could stand alone if I would have been this confident now as I was then.

21:45Oh, man. I probably have a lot more Kittle, but the price hasn't really moved.

21:50I think we can get with him. All right.

21:52Let's take a real quick break. Shuffle the papers.

21:55I want to get my redraft hat on and we'll do some bold projections.

22:00And we're back. All right, Jake. That's been a little bit too much of me.

22:04I think a little bit of me can be too much sometimes.

22:08Why don't you lead us off with your first prediction?

22:11It was one I mentioned I was very much in favor of, and I really hope this happens.

22:17Take it away. All right. So I'm going to start with something positive here, John.

22:22I want to lead in with positivity, which I guess means I'm going to end with negativity.

22:27So I don't actually know if the order of this stands and if you're going to still be behind this.

22:34But I think that Garrett Wilson is going to have himself a career year and land in the top eight of all wide receivers.

22:41Because, John, I don't like to speak in hyperbole.

22:44Okay? So I'm just going to say this. Garrett Wilson is the most underappreciated wide receiver in the history of this planet and fantasy football.

22:52There. No hyperbole spoken. Phew. Thank you. Yes, thank you.

22:55That was very brave of me to say. Thank you.

22:58I do think if we're just looking at Garrett Wilson on the draft board, he's going in the fourth round or so right now in redraft leagues.

23:07And he's around these names where you can make the case for those guys over him.

23:12But a lot of these guys being drafted around him don't have his proven track record of production.

23:18Three straight thousand yard seasons to start off his career, despite catching passes from a who's who of why them at quarterback,

23:25Zach Wilson and Mike White and Trevor Simeon and Tim Boyle and late stage Aaron Rodgers coming off an Achilles tear.

23:32You know, last year with Justin Fields, it was a short amount of time, but people were down on Wilson because Justin

23:38Fields, how was he going to keep him fantasy viable?

23:42And here he is looking like, I think like the wide receiver five, wide receiver six in his healthy games that he was playing.

23:49And now he gets Geno Smith, who I would argue strictly for fantasy, John, not looking at real life, but strictly for

23:56fantasy, might just be the best quarterback that he's ever played with in his career.

24:01And he's hyping him up. Geno Smith has been talking about him a lot this off season.

24:06I think his first quote about the guy was, it's my job to get him the ball and get him the ball early.

24:14And that is music to my ears and anybody else who believes in the talent of Garrett Wilson.

24:19Cause I get that they added some guys right in the draft.

24:23They add Omar Cooper, Jr. They add Kenyon Sadiq.

24:26He's kind of had his own health stuff that we've talked about, but I just think there's no Lamar Jackson walking through that door folks for the jet.

24:35So you're not going to get better than Geno Smith right now is my point, but it's very much good enough.

24:42And I think he should be drafted higher. Yeah.

24:45Yeah. I want to agree with a few of those points.

24:48One, the quarterback play, the way you put it, it's funny.

24:52I've heard it's a who's who of who. Who's who of who?

24:55Yeah. Just absolute nobodies. And I've been taking flack for asserting that I thought Geno Smith was a below average quarterback.

25:02Like imagine setting the bar that low and still it's not being enough to satisfy just about anybody.

25:08Geno's always run good EPA numbers. Again, good enough.

25:11Good enough. I don't know. It's whatever. It's always in vogue to kind of dog pile the jets, which I totally get.

25:18Wilson, just a tremendous volume based play. Also a huge man beater.

25:21Man, two and a half yards per hour versus man.

25:25Almost a full point added per target against man with a 16% success rate.

25:29Again, with those guys throwing you the ball. He is a super.

25:33He is a superstar. That's right. He has a former 10th overall pick at OSU.

25:38He is legit hashtag good at football and a very good example of how environment can kind of drag you down.

25:44It's not going to take much. Last point to the additions.

25:48The addition of Adonai Mitchell is a benefit to Garrett Wilson.

25:51It's a part of the field that now must be defended.

25:55We spoke about this. Again, I'm not trying to get too bullish on Geno.

25:59But where he's always been good is deep and outside the hash marks, which is where Adonai Mitchell is a legit killer out there.

26:07He is very, very good out there. So even if you're in disagreement that he's some world beater, you have to defend

26:14all those blades of grass out there 30 yards deep.

26:17That was not at all in anyone's playbook defensively last season.

26:21Nobody thought for a second about defending 30 yards off the line of scrimmage against the Jets.

26:26So I love this for Wilson. Where he's going, I think, is criminal, and he is a smash in the fourth round.

26:33You may even get some home leagues where he goes to the fifth.

26:37Now, let's back into mine. You already kind of fired astray at him.

26:41It's Mr. Colston Loveland, who I have as my tight end one.

26:45I mean, I feel like we saw a ton of it.

26:49It started with the one game commit missed, and Loveland had the tremendous breakout.

26:53I think that was week nine. And then when the chips were down, and this is all through just this long-standing drumbeat

27:00from Johnson, how Loveland was the offseason target due to the targets for him.

27:04He was the first pick he ever made. He had special plans for him.

27:09Online, off the ball, was going to be his yak guy, a catch and release guy.

27:14We saw all of that, and it really manifested in the last four games, including the playoffs, where I know it's a small sample.

27:22And if that's the argument, I get it. I'm pushing back.

27:25That's baked into the price. We're not paying second-round McBride price.

27:29I'm getting back end of the fourth sometimes. These numbers are absolutely crazy.

27:33I mean, he's running 35 routes a game, 11 1⁄2 targets a game, eight receptions for 93 yards.

27:38These are all per game, 33.3% target per route, almost 2 3⁄4 yards per route, 8 yards per target, 11 1⁄2 per catch.

27:46Gosh, he was just fantastic, almost 100 air yards per game.

27:49He caught everything that went his way. Again, he played in line, beating man, beating zone, working the slot, and an end zone target.

27:57And now Luther Burden is banged up. And the vacated targets for DJ Moore, all of that tells me I am so,

28:04so bullish on the freak that is Colston Loveland.

28:07Just tell us where I missed, Jake. No, I want to be very, very clear about something, John.

28:12The shot fired at Colston Loveland is simply that Tyler Warren is also extremely good.

28:17And I don't want people to forget about that.

28:20That is not at all to disparage Colston Loveland, who I actually think is the only piece of this Bears offense that I really am confident in.

28:29Now, I don't have him as my tight end one, just because I want to give some respect to Brock Bowers.

28:35Kray McBride, I think, still has the case, though it is fading a little bit every week, I think, is the tight end one.

28:43And again, I love me some Tyler Warren. And there's a lot about this Bears offense that I'm going to talk about shortly.

28:50But the one thing I will always say positively is that Colston Loveland looks like an actual beast when he plays football.

28:57And his trajectory never stopped once it started going up.

29:00You see guys in their first season have splashes.

29:03They have little stretches, little streaks where they look really, really good.

29:07And then they kind of fade or fade in and out.

29:11That wasn't the case for Colston Loveland. So I like it.

29:14If I'm going to bother drafting a tight end very early, that's my cutoff is Colston Loveland.

29:19And then, you know, we've talked about some mid and late range tight end targets as well.

29:25But I love Colston Loveland. Don't you try to paint me into a corner against Colston Loveland?

29:30Yeah, and to make a counter to my own point, price adjusted, if you're getting Warren in the sixth, that could be a lead winner.

29:38You know, he could be everything. Next up is your next bowl call.

29:42Why don't you take it away? When I saw this, again, it kind of hurt me because it was almost against mine.

29:49But I think you're going to say that it might not, right?

29:53Just take it away and I'll go for that.

29:56Well, we're already talking about the Bears. So let me continue to talk about the Bears.

30:01And I will try to do this. The listeners cannot see this.

30:05But this is me taking off my Packers fandom hat.

30:08He's wearing a cheese hat. Yeah, and I'm throwing it off to the side.

30:13I'm melting the cheese just for this segment so that you know I'm coming in without bias.

30:18But I expect Caleb Williams to have a very down season.

30:21And in fact, I think he falls outside of the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks.

30:26I know that is shocking to hear. People are throwing tomatoes at their phones right now.

30:31But let me just get this out. Last year, Caleb Williams, he's QB6 overall in fantasy.

30:36QB9 in points per game, which is an important little asterisk there.

30:40But I think it's a bit of a mirage of what we saw.

30:44Because what we saw last year, the good stuff that he had going for him was this.

30:49He had opening drive magic. He had fourth quarter heroics.

30:53He had big spectacular downfield plays. And that's all good stuff.

30:56And that presents a very high ceiling for a fantasy quarterback, which he achieved last year.

31:01But it's this other stuff. It's the smaller stuff that really worries me with him.

31:06I keep coming back to the stat, so I apologize to anybody if you've heard this a million times already.

31:12But among all quarterbacks who threw the ball at least 200 times last year, and this includes the postseason, Caleb Williams was

31:19second from the bottom in completion percentage. He was only above Shador Sanders.

31:23His percentage of on-target throws was also second worst.

31:26Better than only J.J. McCarthy. Those are not the names you want to surround yourself with if people should have confidence in you.

31:34So Caleb's numbers, you can say that they were bad because of how often and how aggressively he was throwing downfield.

31:40I get that. Those completions are harder to make.

31:43But if he doesn't improve some of the other basic stuff, you cannot bank on those plays being there because the guy

31:50got a lot of those extra opportunities to make the big plays because the Bears had a ball-hawking defense.

31:56They led the league in takeaways. They kept giving him more chances to do what he didn't do previously.

32:02They also had one of the easiest strengths of schedule in the NFL for what that's worth.

32:08So if the good fortune runs out for Caleb John, then it's going to be tough, I think, for fantasy consistency.

32:14Because he does not have that Lamar Jackson, that Josh Allen level of rushing upside to make up for this stuff.

32:21He's closer to Baker Mayfield, frankly, in terms of rushing upside.

32:24And, you know, if you're also expecting some bounce back from guys who finished poorly last year, like Justin Herbert, like Joe Burrow, like Jaden Daniels.

32:33Heck, even Daniel Jones that we talked about was very good when he was healthy.

32:37If you're expecting those guys to come up, I think it's just easy enough to say, Caleb needs to get a lot

32:44positively, you know, in terms of growth. It can't all be going to Colston Loveland, to your point, and hoping for the best.

32:52Yeah, when your off-target rate is next to Shador and JJ9, you're doing something wrong.

32:56There are definitely holes in this profile. Well, and we were talking about this, how quarterback pricing has been very dependent on the draft room.

33:04And I don't mean that in the general theoretical sense.

33:08I mean, where the pass catcher is, people are attaching the quarterback.

33:11So if the guy with burden and Loveland was in front of you, then Caleb Williams was going first in that.

33:18And I think he was leading the ADP quarterback pack, if I'm saying that right, because he had two pass catchers going before him.

33:26And I don't think it was based on, like, his pure kind of talent and fantasy expectations.

33:31And I actually pushed him back in my ranks for a lot of what you're talking about here.

33:37He took entirely too long to throw all, so I kind of worry about that.

33:42He had one of the worst, if not the highest time to throw.

33:46There's Shador Sanders again, the only person with a worse time to throw than Caleb was Shador, which is not what you're looking for at all.

33:54It was good to see caught down on the sacks, which we love, but he doesn't really throw outside.

34:00Yeah, I don't know. I totally get what you're saying here.

34:04A lot of this feels very much faith-based on the, you know, like the Johnson creativity.

34:09We're just going to put your stock in one guy.

34:12It's probably him. Right. But I do think the cart may be in front of the horse for Caleb.

34:18I mean, we can't be relying on buzzer-beating, game-winning throws off your back foot to the back of the end zone, which I can't do more than once.

34:27It's very hard to rely on those kind of plays.

34:30All right. Now, how about mine? I'm going to go with a little more positivity.

34:35It was funny. You were talking about that before, and I'm thinking, this is fantasy football.

34:40There's no happiness here. You've come to the wrong place, my friend.

34:44All right. I'm going with Zay Flowers, who I am just over the moon for.

34:48I've got him as a top five wide receiver, and it's almost one of those things.

34:53I'm like, you're actually going to make me explain this?

34:57I mean, great quarterback, volume guy, new coordinator in Declan Doyle we're really excited about, who has been mentioning him by name, and the spreadsheet just screaming.

35:05You know, every down player, he had a 96% route participation rate, earned 118 targets for over 1,200 yards.

35:11Of course, the hangup is the touchdowns, which is not something we should be focusing on, yet that seems to be carrying the price where Flowers had more.

35:20He averaged over a half of a red zone target per game for the year, just over a quarter of an end zone target.

35:28These are not great, but it's not like they're ignoring him.

35:31I just think the touchdown-based analysis is a little too variant to be hanging our hats on.

35:37And then all the trimmings we love, 25% target per route, over 2.5 yards per route, over 10 yards per target.

35:43I mean, he beats man, he beats zone, he gets all the layup stuff underneath.

35:48You know, he's a slot dominator with Yak. And again, some of these stats include missing Lamar, who's healthy right now.

35:55I'm not trying to predict injuries. Give me Zay Flowers where he's going, especially.

35:59Again, right, Jake? We like to give advice that people could actually deploy.

36:03And if I'm telling you, I'm drafting running backs early, man.

36:07I really am. Third round Zay feels like I'm getting a second round wide receiver as my wide receiver won.

36:13And I get to fill in those critical running back spots.

36:17Talk to me about Zay Flowers. And maybe if my expectations are a little misplaced.

36:21I don't think so. I love Zay Flowers this year.

36:25And to your point about if you want to start your draft with two running backs or a running back in one

36:32of these tight ends that we're hyping up, if you can get Zay Flowers and Emeka Agbuka and Garrett Wilson, like if

36:39you can get that trio in rounds three through five, which is actually plausible depending on where you're drafting from, that's a

36:46heck of a way to build out your roster.

36:48And to your point about the touchdowns, there should never be an expectation unless you are like Devontae Adams, that you're going

36:55to have X amount of opportunities every year at touchdowns.

36:59And you're a shoe in for double digits at wide receiver.

37:02Remember how many years we hoped and prayed and kind of banked on the fact that Julio Jones eventually has to score

37:09more than like three touchdowns in a season? And it was like eight years in a row.

37:15So he was the exception that proves the rule where, okay, yes, he continually gets low touchdowns year after year, but he

37:22grew positive regression should have caught up to him at some point as it did literally every other wide receiver.

37:28So I'm not worried about Zay Flowers. And you mentioned the Declan Doyle thing.

37:32I just have to point it out coming over from the bears.

37:36I do think that's a big positive for the throwing game in general in Baltimore.

37:41And I know there's been some hype about the rookie wide receiver there, Jacoby Lane.

37:46There's no worry to me that he's going to eat into Zay Flowers.

37:50If anything, it's going to be like you mentioned with Adonai Wilson or Adonai Mitchell and Garrett Wilson.

37:56That's just something that should help with the pressure on Zay Flowers.

37:59So I love the call. Yeah. I find myself in that camp of thought and it gets a lot of pushback.

38:06What about this guy? Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins can feast.

38:09To me, it's not about a number of stars.

38:12It's about the consolidation in the offense. I feel like Baltimore is pretty consolidated.

38:17In fact, they may have been overly consolidated. I don't want too much attention.

38:21We don't want Zay Flowers getting bracket type coverage.

38:24You know, that's, that's overdoing it. We don't want that.

38:27We want a threat again with those deeper blades of grass.

38:31It'll be yet to be seen what we have in Mark Andrews.

38:35So I'm glad to see another secondary weapon added to the Ravens.

38:38All right, Jake, that was awesome. I think that might've been the best episode of the season.

38:44That's going to do it for us here today.

38:47A little bit of news and notes, a little bit of bold predictions.

38:51We'll be back next week with a little bit more of the same, but a different topic at the back end.

38:57So from John and Jake and producer Robbie, we really do appreciate you for listening.

39:02Thanks again. And everyone have a wonderful weekend. This is an iHeart podcast.

39:06Guaranteed human.

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