Risk Factors For First Three ADP Rounds

Harris assigns Brown a risk factor of 6 but remains a fan, having bet on him for most receiving touchdowns at 24-to-1. Harris believes Brown is getting the best quarterback of his career and still has at least one elite season left, dismissing concerns about advanced metrics in favor of the 'change of scenery' narrative.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is labeled the safest pick in the draft. Having finished as a top-three wide receiver for three consecutive years, he carries a very low risk factor of 1-2.

Ashton Jeanty has a phenomenal workload and no threat to his primacy in the offense. Jonathan Brooks assigns him a risk factor of 4, noting that the addition of Tyler Linderbaum to the offensive line is a positive factor.

Robinson is a low-risk player (rated 2-3) despite concerns about the Falcons' quarterback situation. He is viewed as a high-end RB1 who is at the peak of his career and carries no injury risk.

Harris calls Hall his 'favorite ADP' and a 'dream' pick, despite assigning him a 7 on the risk scale. He compares Hall to De'Von Achane as a back who can catch passes, though he acknowledges the risk that the Jets' offense could be 'unwatchable' and lead to poor usage.

Harris and Josh agree that Bowers is a 'clear' avoid at his mid-to-late second-round ADP. Harris notes that while he lowered his risk factor from an 8 to a 6, the primary concern is the 'risky build' of drafting a tight end that early, which forces the drafter to play catch-up at running back or receiver.

CeeDee Lamb is considered a risky pick at his current ADP of 10. Jonathan Brooks notes that outside of one incredible season, his career has been marred by injuries and inconsistency, leading to a risk factor of 5-6. He is viewed as a rough pick in the 10-14 range.

Chase Brown is considered overvalued at his current ADP of 14. Jonathan Brooks is priced out of the market, suggesting that several wide receivers should be drafted ahead of him, and assigns him a risk factor of 3-4.

Harris assigns Olave a risk factor of 4, noting that the primary concern is his concussion history. He considers Olave an 'exceptional player' when on the field and suggests he is a viable third-round pick if the drafter knows what they are doing.

Christian McCaffrey is a high-risk, high-reward asset due to his extreme usage, including playing 100% of snaps in some games. While he has a history of lower-extremity injuries that can sideline him for 6-8 weeks, his upside is so significant that he remains a top-5 overall pick. He is coming off a healthy season following plasma treatment, and Jonathan Brooks would consider him a top-3 pick in PPR formats if guaranteed 14 games.

McCaffrey is viewed as extremely high-risk (rated 9-10), compared to jumping out of a plane without a parachute. While his usage and production are elite, his history of missing significant time (6-8 games) with lower-extremity injuries makes him a volatile asset.

The speaker views Christian McCaffrey as a high-floor, reliable first-round pick, suggesting he is a player you know exactly what you are going to get from, making him a stable anchor for a fantasy roster.

Hubbard has been downgraded in rankings due to a week-to-week hamstring injury. While he was not a 'flag player' this year, the multi-week injury in training camp increases the risk of re-injury, necessitating a lower rank regardless of personal predisposition toward the player.

Devon Achane carries a high risk factor of 7. While his talent is undeniable, concerns exist regarding his durability under a heavy workload, the team's overall offensive performance, and the potential for him to be sidelined if the team falls out of contention.

The speaker expresses concern regarding De'Von Achane based on reports from Commanders beat reporters about the Dolphins' offense; if negative reports persist after another joint practice, the speaker may lower Achane's draft ranking.

Derrick Henry is viewed as a low-risk asset (risk factor 2-3) despite his age. Jonathan Brooks notes that he has not yet shown signs of decline and prefers him over younger, riskier options like Omari Hampton.

Harris assigns Smith a risk factor of 3, viewing him as the clear number one wide receiver for the Eagles. He notes that Smith's minor injury is a positive for his draft value and reminds listeners that Smith is a Heisman winner who is often undervalued.

Drake London carries a risk factor of 5 due to quarterback uncertainty and week-to-week variability. While he is a talented wide receiver one, his production is often tied to contested catches, leading to 'down weeks' that make him a volatile fantasy asset.

Harris assigns Pickens an 8 on the risk scale, calling him a 'knucklehead' who can 'go off the reservation.' Harris also expresses skepticism about drafting two receivers from the same team, noting that it rarely works, and mentions instances where Pickens appeared to quit on plays.

Chase is assigned a risk factor of 2, primarily due to uncertainty surrounding Joe Burrow's health. Despite missing time last year, he remained highly productive, though he is not currently a target for the analysts in the top three picks.

Gibbs is considered a low-risk asset (rated 1-2 on a 10-point scale) due to his consecutive years as a top-four running back and his role in a high-powered Lions offense, even with David Montgomery present.

James Cook is viewed as having a risk factor of 3. Despite his small frame and the way he runs, he has not yet manifested any scary outcomes or injury issues, keeping him as a relatively safe pick.

Harris assigns Williams a risk factor of 4, noting that he does not view him as an 'amazing player' and acknowledging his injury history, but finds him acceptable at his current draft position.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is viewed as a low-risk player with absurd efficiency metrics. Despite concerns about the quarterback situation, Jonathan Brooks is comfortable drafting him in the early rounds, noting that his production floor remains high even if he doesn't reach 1,500 yards.

Harris and Josh strongly advise against drafting rookie running backs in the first three rounds, with Harris assigning Love a 7 on the risk scale. Harris notes that while this year's rookie class is more 'palatable' than last year's, he is not doing it.

Jonathan Taylor is considered a 'feast or famine' health risk. Despite a strong performance last year and a new contract, Jonathan Brooks assigns him a risk factor of 4-5, citing concerns about the Colts' overall team environment and his history of workload-related injuries.

Brooks is currently ranked RB33, just behind Chuba Hubbard at RB32. While there is historical concern regarding running backs recovering from two ACL tears, the market is expected to push Brooks ahead of Hubbard due to his status as an unknown rookie-contract player.

Harris and Josh both express hesitation regarding Allen's ADP, with Harris assigning a risk factor of 3 and Josh a 2. While they acknowledge he is not 'risky' in terms of talent, they do not love the strategy of taking a quarterback at that draft spot.

Harris assigns Jacobs a risk factor of 8, citing his groin injury, history of being overworked, and potential for suspension. Harris notes he is likely 'out' on Jacobs at his current ADP due to the injury timeline.

Justin Jefferson is viewed as a high-risk asset (risk factor 5-6) primarily due to last year's injury and uncertainty surrounding the quarterback situation. While he is an extreme talent, Jonathan Brooks is concerned about his ability to maintain high production without a proven quarterback.

Kenneth Walker is assigned a risk factor of 6 due to a consistent history of injuries and concerns about the team's offensive efficiency. While he is a talented player, Jonathan Brooks warns that his ADP assumes many positive variables that have not yet materialized.

Harris assigns Williams a risk factor of 3, noting that while Blake Corum's involvement adds slight risk, Williams has a 'nose for the end zone' and plays on an 'absurd team.' Josh calls him a 'slam dunk' flag player.

Harris assigns Nabers a 10 on the risk scale, labeling him 'King risk.' While acknowledging his 'amazing talent,' Harris refuses to draft him until he sees him play for a period without injury, citing concerns that his knee could swell up by week three.

Harris and Josh both assign Collins a risk factor of 4-5, citing his history of concussions and lower hamstring injuries. Harris notes that while Collins is an 'absolute animal' and a 'freak monster,' he is inherently frustrating week-to-week, often alternating between massive games and near-zero production.

Nacua carries a higher risk factor (rated 5) due to potential suspension concerns and a history of being frequently injured during games. While his talent is elite, the combination of looming off-field issues and physical durability concerns makes him a risky first-round selection.

Harris and Josh both assign Rice an 8 on the risk scale. Harris highlights that Rice has never broken 600 yards in a season, has off-field legal concerns, and is essentially a 'slant screen, check down merchant' who has yet to prove he can sustain production for a full 17-game season.

Saquon Barkley carries a risk factor of 4-5 as he approaches age 30. Concerns include a rebuilt offense, the loss of key blockers, and a reliance on explosive runs that may not be sustainable. Despite these risks, he is considered a viable end-of-first-round pick.

Harris assigns Higgins a risk factor of 4, noting that while there is 'Burrow risk,' the primary concern is that Higgins 'gets hurt a lot' and misses games every season.

Harris assigns McBride a risk factor of 6, primarily because he does not like the quarterback situation. He reiterates that while he loves the player, he dislikes the strategy of drafting a tight end in that range.

Harris assigns Flowers a risk factor of 3, calling him good value. He views Flowers as a safe, low-risk player who is an ideal pairing for a team that already drafted a high-end asset like Christian McCaffrey.