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PodcastFrom Harris Fantasy Football Podcast

Five ADP Surprises Plus More Injuries

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 18, 2026
Published
Tue, August 18, 2026
34
Player insights
30
Players mentioned
Topics
Blake CorumD.J. MooreKyren WilliamsMatthew StaffordAlec PierceBo NixBreece HallBrian Thomas Jr.Bryce LanceChase BrownChris OlaveColston LovelandD'Andre SwiftDaniel Jones
Player analysis

Player insights

34

Alec Pierce

PositiveDepth Chart8:54

Keenan Allen's signing has caused the source to lower Alec Pierce further in the rankings. Pierce is dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out for a while, making him a double-digit round target at best.

Insight page

Blake Corum

PositiveValue20:47

The source argues Blake Corum is significantly undervalued at his current round eight ADP (RB34). He offers rare standalone value with the potential for 60-80 yards and occasional touchdowns even alongside Kyron Williams, while providing elite contingent upside as a weekly top-10 plug-and-play option if Williams misses time. The source believes he should be drafted two to three rounds higher.

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PositiveValue34:07

The source is surprised that Blake Corum is being drafted in round eight, as he carved out a significant role in the backfield last year and should be drafted higher.

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Bo Nix

PositiveValue26:49

Bo Nix is identified as a late-round quarterback option with upside, currently going outside the top 15.

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Breece Hall

NegativeInjury8:12

Breece Hall strained his groin in practice. While the team downplayed the injury, the source notes a pattern of such reports turning out to be more serious.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeValue47:54

Brian Thomas Jr. is a massive avoid at his current ADP inside the 5th round. While he may function as a 'sacrificial X' receiver capable of 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns, his current draft cost is too high given the crowded Jacksonville receiving corps.

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Bryce Lance

NegativeDepth Chart5:05

Despite positive camp reports, the source advises against chasing rookie Bryce Lance in fantasy drafts.

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Chase Brown

PositiveValue31:17

Chase Brown is viewed as a difference-maker who emerged from the offseason unscathed by team additions to the backfield. While the source notes taking him in the first round might be 'rich,' he is a preferred target for those seeking a high-upside running back who has proven his ability as an NFL player.

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Chris Olave

NegativeProjection3:18

The source maintains a rank of 24 overall for Chris Olave, noting that while Jordan Tyson's injury might increase target volume, the lack of other threats in the Saints' receiving corps could make it harder for Olave to get open. The source expects his ADP to rise toward the early second round but remains cautious about moving him up.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeValue29:05

The source questions the high ADP of Colston Loveland, noting that he is being drafted in the fourth round despite better options available at other positions. The source suggests that fantasy managers are over-projecting his upside based on a strong playoff run.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveValue41:48

The source expresses surprise at DJ Moore's current round five ADP, emphasizing that he is the unquestioned wide receiver one for Josh Allen.

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PositiveValue42:21

DJ Moore is significantly undervalued at his current ADP of WR25, as he is the unquestioned WR1 for Josh Allen in an offense that fits his playstyle better than Chicago's did. Despite being drafted in the 5th round, he possesses legitimate WR1 upside and is a viable target regardless of early-round draft strategy.

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D'Andre Swift

NegativeValue5:34

The source is allergic to drafting DeAndre Swift higher than round five, citing concerns about his ability to maintain a full workload once Kyle Monongai returns. The source expects the market to push Swift's ADP up, at which point the source will avoid him.

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Daniel Jones

PositiveValue27:01

Daniel Jones is identified as a late-round quarterback option with upside, currently going as QB 24.

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Drake Maye

NegativeValue25:36

Drake Maye is being drafted later than expected in some formats due to the overall depth of the quarterback position.

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Jared Goff

PositiveValue26:49

Jared Goff is identified as a late-round quarterback option with upside, currently going outside the top 15.

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Jordyn Tyson

NegativeInjury2:09

Jordan Tyson is out for at least two months with a hamstring injury that is related to his previous history of hamstring issues, making him borderline undraftable in redraft leagues.

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Josh Allen

NegativeValue25:36

Josh Allen is being drafted later than expected in some formats due to the overall depth of the quarterback position.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeInjury23:37

Josh Jacobs is currently dealing with a minor injury, which influences his ranking and tier placement alongside other running backs like Kyron Williams.

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Keenan Allen

NegativeValue8:30

Keenan Allen signed with the Colts, but the source is not enthused about drafting him, ranking him as a late-round gambit (WR58 standard/WR54 PPR).

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveProjection37:05

Kenneth Walker is being moved up in rankings following positive reports from training camp.

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Kyle Monangai

NegativeInjury5:11

Kyle Monongai hyperextended his knee and will miss multiple weeks, making it unlikely he plays in Week 1. The source has lowered him in the rankings.

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Kyler Murray

PositiveValue26:55

Kyler Murray is identified as a late-round quarterback option with upside, currently going at QB 17.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveProjection23:02

The source views Kyron Williams as undervalued, ranking him around RB10-RB13. Despite concerns about workload splits, the source notes Williams has consistently been a top-8 producer over the last three years and maintains the high-value roles like the two-minute drill and goal-line work. He is currently considered the healthiest option among his tier of running backs.

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NegativeValue47:30

Kyren Williams is being drafted in the late third round, a position that the source finds surprising, though no further analysis is provided in this segment.

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeValue20:36

Lamar Jackson's ADP is inconsistent across platforms, with some outliers pushing his value down, though he typically remains a third-round pick on sites like Yahoo.

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Malik Willis

PositiveValue26:57

Malik Willis is identified as a late-round quarterback option with upside, currently going outside the top 20.

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Matthew Stafford

PositiveValue27:15

Matthew Stafford is cited as an example of a late-round quarterback who provided top-three fantasy production last season, suggesting similar value can be found late this year.

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PositiveValue52:55

Matthew Stafford is being completely ignored by the market, currently ranked as QB13-15 despite coming off an MVP-caliber season. The source ranks him as QB5 and believes he is a steal in double-digit rounds, dismissing concerns about regression or the Rams' defensive improvements.

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Omarion Hampton

NegativeBust34:38

The source is skeptical of O'Marion Hampton's early second-round ADP, labeling it 'wish casting.' Film analysis suggests he lacks maneuverability and swivel in his hips, often running into contact rather than finding holes. Additionally, the source expects a backfield split in Los Angeles, noting that the coaching staff may prioritize a speed element like Keaton Mitchell for certain roles.

Insight page

Parker Washington

NegativeValue47:50

Parker Washington is currently overvalued at his ADP inside the 5th round. While he is a talented player, the Jacksonville offense will spread the ball thin, and his current price point is too high for an unproven player.

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Saquon Barkley

PositiveProjection36:39

Saquon Barkley is being moved up in rankings due to positive reports regarding the Eagles' new wide zone scheme under Sean Mannion.

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Trevor Lawrence

NegativeValue48:07

Trevor Lawrence is drastically undervalued in current drafts. The source suggests that because the Jacksonville pass catchers are all being drafted too high, the most logical conclusion is that the quarterback himself is the value play.

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Tyler Warren

PositiveValue29:05

Tyler Warren is considered a better value than Colston Loveland, as he is available two rounds later while being in the same tier. The source actually ranks Warren ahead of Loveland.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

736
0:00It's the Harris Football Podcast with your host, Christopher Harris.
0:03Hey everybody, welcome in. My name is Chris and this is a podcast with minty fresh breath.
0:08Hello there everybody. I hope you're doing well today.
0:11Not to brag too much, but how does it feel to be listening to a fantasy football podcast that actually knows a little something about ADP, huh?
0:19Huh? That's right. Average draft position. It's this new thing I just discovered that actually tells you where players are being drafted before you do your own draft.
0:28I kid, of course. I think ADP is trash all the way up until now and maybe even a little after now.
0:35I think it's probably trash most of the year because instead of talking about which players are good, all people talk about
0:42is, ooh, should that guy be going in the third round?
0:45Before we actually know that that guy is really going to be going in the third round.
0:50But there does come a time where it's important to start comparing what we think of players to what we suspect the
0:57market might be doing with those players. And for this show, we can wait no longer.
1:02Stubbornly, I stay away from ADP until now, but that time is now.
1:06I have officially cracked open ADP such as it is.
1:09And man, is it a mess? Not that it's wrong.
1:12It's just all over the place. It absolutely depends on where you draft.
1:16But we'll do our best to start talking about where players are going.
1:20And coming up on the show, our buddy Dave Kluge from Football Guys will help us begin that process.
1:26But before we get there, is there NFL news?
1:29Oh, man, there surely is. Remember a few days ago when the Saints said rookie receiver Jordan Tyson's hamstring injury, quote, wasn't super serious, end quote?
1:37And then they were very clear to make sure that we knew that this hamstring injury had nothing to do with those
1:44other hamstring injuries Tyson is famous for. Yeah, it's super serious and it absolutely has something to do with those other hamstring injuries Tyson is famous for.
1:52Jordan Tyson is out for two months at least and is now borderline undraftable in a redraft league.
1:58Is that a good thing for Chris Olave? Crutch argument alert.
2:01That's a classic, a classic crutch argument. The answer is that it's not necessarily good or bad by definition for Olave because
2:08on the one hand, you could say all those targets have to go somewhere.
2:12Bring them to my sweet, sweet Chris Olave. But on the other hand, you could say there's nobody else in the Saints
2:19receiving core that's going to keep a defense honest.
2:22And Olave is going to have a tougher time getting open on a per play basis.
2:27And I already feel like I have Chris Olave plenty high, number 24 overall, so I haven't moved him.
2:33I think he's a terrific player. I'm happy if I get him at the 2-3 turn.
2:38My guess is that this news is going to send him skyward, depending on your platform.
2:43Who knows? But I think it's not going to send him down.
2:46The impulse is always just to try to distribute targets.
2:49And now Olave is going to get 2,000 targets.
2:52He might be headed to the mid or even early second round.
2:56Probably won't take him there. In Tyson's place, I don't have anyone in that Saints receiving core as particularly draftable.
3:02Devon Vele maybe gets an uptick, but not draftable.
3:05They've said nice things about rookie Bryce Lance in camp.
3:08You probably don't need to chase there. How about Kyle Monongai?
3:11Got tackled in a non-tackle practice. Limped off the field.
3:14Initial leaks from the team. Oh, he's fine. Knee is structurally sound.
3:18Fast forward one day. Kyle Monongai's knee is not fine, nor is it structurally sound.
3:23He hyperextended it and will miss multiple weeks. I guess it is structurally sound.
3:27He didn't tear any ligaments, but yeah, it's not feeling good, I would imagine.
3:31Certainly makes it sound like he's not playing week one.
3:34I lowered Monongai in the ranks as well. Although I didn't really give DeAndre Swift a bump.
3:40I already have Swift going round five, and I am allergic to DeAndre Swift going any higher than round five.
3:46I think there's an argument that he's maybe going to outperform that in September.
3:50But then comes October, and presumably Monongai will be back.
3:53And then if I'm heavily invested in Swift, I gotta live that zero life.
3:58Scorelessness is hopelessness, and hopelessness will soon regress and regress into stat progress.
4:02But the stats were empty, just like me. Because relying on DeAndre Swift to maintain full workloads, or even exceed 50-50 workloads,
4:08not exactly been profitable for old zero in the past.
4:11Once again, my guess is the market will shoot Swift skyward.
4:15In that case, I will be more than fine not participating.
4:18Emeka Abuka's toe injury is still hanging out there.
4:21Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles was cagey with reporters, basically refusing to engage or speculate on whether Abuka will be available week one.
4:28Certainly, that is a 10 bells kind of thing to be keeping track of the leaks here in the next few days.
4:35For now, I have not moved Abuka, because I did not take that to mean that Bowles was implying Abuka won't be available.
4:42I think he just, I'm not going to speculate, period.
4:45I'm not here to talk about something I don't know about.
4:48But certainly, we will listen to leaks over these next few days.
4:52Is Brees Hall strained his groin in Monday's Jets practice.
4:55Aaron Glenn told everybody, not a big deal. Which, if pattern holds, it will turn out to have been a big deal.
5:02But stay tuned. And did we ever believe we'd get to use this sound drop again?
5:07Carry on my eldest son! Truly, we probably did.
5:10Keenan Allen, my eldest son, emerges from his hiding place, doesn't see his shadow, and signs with the Indianapolis Colts.
5:16Yes, I thought I would use that sound drop again.
5:19I believe I had that. A little birdie may have told me.
5:23And I guess it's hard for me to get enthused about drafting Keenan Allen himself.
5:27I put him wide receiver 58 standard, 54 PPR.
5:30That's late round gambit stuff. But acceptable as a very late round gambit.
5:34But this did make me lower Alec Pierce even further.
5:37He's been tumbling down the ranks throughout July and August.
5:40Not that he had the second PRP. Wait, PRP, PPR?
5:43This job just keeps getting more confusing. And it's not like Allen is anything remotely like Alec Pierce as a receiver.
5:50One guy is fast. One guy no longer is.
5:53But paying Allen $8 million, that is not window dressing.
5:56That is, we needed to get you in. And we weren't going to take any chances that some other team was finally going to give you your number.
6:04So I really do think we have to deal with the idea that Pierce could be out a pretty long while with that ankle injury.
6:12PRP or no. To the point where Alec Pierce himself, I'm thinking double digit rounds at best.
6:17And that's the news I wanted to talk about here.
6:20I really should mention the meetups. I really should remember to do that.
6:24I did it at the end of Monday's show, but not at the beginning.
6:29Let's do that right now, right here. I am doing meetups across the Pacific time zone next week.
6:34Please show up. It would be wonderful if people attended.
6:37I have no idea if it's only going to be me and my gracious hosts and nobody else.
6:43I'm going to do a reading from Pound Foolish, my new novel.
6:47You'll have to sit through that. I'll be super entertaining.
6:50But then the main point is we'll mingle. We'll talk about whatever.
6:53We'll hang out for a couple hours. I'll certainly get to meet each person who shows up.
6:59You can get a signed book if you want to.
7:02This starts this Sunday. This Sunday. That's right. What is that?
7:05Five days from now, I will be on a plane to Tacoma, Washington on Sunday.
7:10And then Monday, Portland, Oregon. Tuesday, Las Vegas. Wednesday, Phoenix.
7:13Four days, four events. And then actually on September 1, for everybody who's in LA, I'll be back.
7:18And we're doing a book launch reading that's two weeks from today on September 1st.
7:23You can find all the details and the locations at harrisfootball.com.
7:26Just go to the Pound Foolish page and scroll down.
7:30There's a big graphic about it. I've also posted it all over social media.
7:34The events all start at 7 p.m. I have never done a meetup in any of these cities.
7:39It would be so awesome to meet you. You know, if you're going to be in Vegas, maybe you're having a draft
7:46or something midweek and you're in Vegas. Just like take a few, take an hour, you know.
7:51Come on by. That's a week from today, that Vegas one.
7:55Truly, no matter how many people show up, it is going to be really, really fun.
8:00And the bribery continues. I've already done the Zoom from yesterday.
8:03I've already sent out the t-shirt from yesterday. We're going to do another bribery winner at the end of today's show.
8:10You probably haven't entered yet. You probably can't win this one.
8:13But you can win for the rest of the month if you pre-order Pound Foolish.
8:18You can find all the details at harrisfootball.com. And also, just very quickly, wanted to mention how many people wrote me nice
8:25notes about Monday's intro segment on the podcast. Talking a little bit about rejection and being vulnerable.
8:30And man, oh man. I mean, too many people to list here.
8:3450 people probably wrote me an email. I read every single one.
8:37It was so nice. You all are so nice.
8:40And it's just a reminder. Like, we are not alone when we feel rejected.
8:44We all know rejection. It's part of the human experience.
8:47And we should wear rejection when we can. Or sometimes you just take a minute.
8:52You know, catch your breath. But when you can, hopefully take it as a badge and keep going.
8:58It is so great to know how many of you persevere every single day.
9:02And against things that are way more significant than book stuff.
9:05You all are a total inspiration to me. And I sure do love you.
9:10Today's kickoff. Okay. On today's show, I said it right there off the top.
9:14It's ADP time. The first thing we'll do now that I'm fully immersed in average draft position is talk about the biggest
9:21things that stood out compared to my expectations and those of my guests.
9:25And to help me with those ADP surprises, it will be the aforementioned Dave Kluge from Football Guys.
9:30It'll be a great time. I thank you once again so much for listening today.
9:35We are brought to you by Wild Grain. And if you love fresh bread and fresh pastries, stop what you're doing.
9:41Send in some snark. Just make it humorous. No, wait.
9:45That's a different song. But do stop what you're doing and go to wildgrain.com slash Harris because you will love Wild Grain.
9:51It's the first ever bake from frozen box for bread, pastries, and French butter, all made by independent bakeries.
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10:42Wildgrain.com slash harris for $30 off your first box and free croissants.
10:46My mouth is watering. Wildgrain.com slash harris. Today's guest.
10:49Got two sets of ranks to win the contest.
10:51He's got two sets of ranks to win. The song is wrong.
10:55The man has ranks of integrity with Dave Kluge.
10:58The song is lovely but incorrect. It is Dave Kluge from Football Guys.
11:02You can find him all over social media. Just look up Dave Kluge.
11:06K-L-U-G-E. You can hear him five times a week like you can hear me five times a week.
11:11But he's on the Football Guys Fantasy Football Show on the regular.
11:15And they do some live streams on top of that as well.
11:19Much recommended by me. Hello David. How are you?
11:22I'm doing fantastic. And I want to say now you can also only find my rankings at footballguys.com.
11:27So I went out there. I won the contest.
11:30You know showed Fantasy Pros what it was all about.
11:33And now if you want my rankings footballguys.com. You got to find them there.
11:37I love it. Ranks of integrity. Dave Kluge. Yes.
11:40I've always said. Always said about you. All right.
11:43Well I've done it. I'm finally looking at average draft position.
11:46Do you admire the fact that I lasted until August 18th?
11:50You know it is very admirable. I am an absolute sicko.
11:53I after round one of the NFL draft I had Jeff Bell and Joey Wright staying at my place out in Colorado.
12:00And we did a high stakes $350 draft before round two even commenced of the NFL draft.
12:05So I have been tracking these ADP changes meticulously for the last four or five months here.
12:10And I am very excited to see what you looking at this for the first time are shocked by.
12:16All right. Well let's do it. It is a pointless countdown.
12:20Um we decided to look at the football guys.
12:22Uh I guess it's an amalgamation of many many many ADPs across many sites which you all can find at footballguys.com.
12:29And the I mean I said this already off the top of the show like the point is there really is no ADP.
12:36You look at that page at football guys and you see Lamar Jackson and you go wait what?
12:42And you realize oh there's just two crazy outliers who have Lamar Jackson really low that push him below.
12:47But if I'm playing on Yahoo he's still going to go in the third round.
12:52So it's just no criticism intended to any rankings.
12:55I mean we don't know rankings. We don't know.
12:58It's predicting sports. We don't know what's going to happen.
13:01The larger point is just really really tough to tell people exactly what's going to happen in their particular draft room on their particular platform.
13:08Because the ADPs and the default rankings are also wildly different.
13:12Right. And this time of year you know we change the sliders where we kind of weigh different sources a little bit heavier different times a year.
13:20So this year these rankings are weighed a little bit heavier by best ball where there are a lot of drafts happening right now.
13:28And high stakes drafts we're not putting a ton into the ESPN and Yahoo ADPs because frankly people aren't drafting there yet.
13:34You know two weeks from now when those sites start ramping up a little bit then we'll change the sliders and weigh that a little bit heavier.
13:43But right now it's mostly a mix of best ball and high stakes ADP.
13:47Yeah best ball is useless. To me because why do I care what best ball people are drafting.
13:53I understand that's where the drafts are but like that's why I don't pay attention to ADP until now because like I
13:59have a real auction in two nights that I care very much about.
14:03And so like I think this week if you couldn't get your league members together the last week in August of the
14:10first week of September this is a viable week.
14:13There are going to be thousands of leagues drafted this week.
14:16I have friends who just had one done. But I think what you said is so useful and instructive and I didn't really know it.
14:24Which is to say your site is heavily weighing something I don't care about at all for a long time because that's where the data is.
14:32No slight intended. It's just the only people who are doing drafts are best ball sickos and I don't care.
14:38For the purposes of redraft I don't really care about best ball.
14:42Right and then NFFC you know those are managed leagues so I think that's probably one of the more accurate ADPs out here right now.
14:50But then you also get weird stuff happening on every platform where like you know there's a very small pool of people
14:57drafting in these high stakes drafts and they do crazy stuff.
15:00Like I saw Parker Washington go in round four a couple of days ago because people you know start trying to one
15:07up each other and trying to get players that they know other people are going to draft.
15:12So yeah this time of year not a ton of drafts happening so we're doing the best with the data that we have.
15:19Right. All right well let's talk about our surprises.
15:22It's a pointless countdown but it matters very much despite its pointlessness.
15:26What's your number five ADP surprise so far in 2026?
15:29So I think first of all this year we are seeing that quarterbacks are getting pushed down pretty far down draft boards
15:36and I think when you see some of the elite names up top you see your Josh Allens and your Lamar Jacksons and Drake Mays.
15:43You might be saying these guys are going a little bit later than I would have expected them to typically go but
15:50I think that's because of the depth of the quarterback position this year.
15:54And when I first started doing a handful of drafts I was kind of surprised at how cheap I could get some of these elite quarterbacks.
16:02But then you realize that there are quarterbacks that you can feel pretty good starting in your lineup that you can get
16:09at the very end of your draft when you see Bo Nix and Jared Goff going outside of the top 15.
16:15Kyler Murray going at QB 17. Tyler Shuck and Malik Willis going outside of the top 20.
16:21Daniel Jones is going as QB 24. I mean there's just so much depth at the quarterback position this year.
16:27So this is very much so not like one player that I have a take on.
16:32Just the quarterback position as a whole is so deep this year.
16:35And last year we saw Matthew Stafford getting drafted outside of the 20 giving us a top three finish in fantasy.
16:42And when I look at the guys that are getting drafted outside of the top 15 outside of the top 20 this
16:49year I see a lot of guys that have that sort of upside.
16:53So I think this is another year where we say it you know pretty frequently.
16:57But this is just another year where I don't think you want to be the guy paying up for a quarterback because
17:04there's some really really good value late this year.
17:07Fully agree. And I think the only way I wouldn't agree is to say that this year is any different from any other year.
17:14It's just quarterback is very flat and very inflated.
17:17And because there isn't enough of a difference among them you just don't need to pay up.
17:22Which is of course you've been saying that preaching that on my show and your own show.
17:28I've been preaching it like that's kind of what we preach.
17:31So I like it. And maybe that's an indication because the elite guys you're perceiving are going a little bit later.
17:38Maybe that's actually starting to get through to some people's brains.
17:41So that's a good one. My number five. I mean you're a Bears guy.
17:45Maybe you can explain this to me. It's weird to me that Colson Loveland and Tyler Warren are getting different treatments.
17:52Like Colson Loveland is just like oh well obviously he's the tight end three.
17:56And obviously you need to be taking him whatever.
17:59Is it the fourth round? You know. Whereas Tyler Warren you know.
18:03I mean he's part of the next group. Sure like you could take him.
18:07But I don't know. You know like it seems.
18:10If Tyler Warren was better last year than Colson Loveland.
18:13He was better as a player. He was better as a performer for fantasy.
18:17Loveland without that Bengals game which was pretty fake.
18:20I mean it counted and they came back and stuff.
18:23But like you know it was nonsense. His long touchdown at the end was great.
18:28The Bengals just didn't cover him for as many times as I expect that to happen in a given year.
18:34No shade intended to Colson Loveland. He's really good and belongs to me.
18:38Like there's a group of a few tight ends that I would put.
18:42It's like I'm not probably going to draft them because I usually wait on tight end.
18:47But it just yeah. I was surprised. I was like okay well so Loveland and Warren are going to be next to each other.
18:54And they were absolutely. They were like a round or more apart.
18:58Yeah and I think Colson Loveland too. He has been a really tough player to draft when you look at the names that are going around him.
19:06You've got Garrett Wilson, Lad McConkie, Tee Higgins, Tedderola McMillan.
19:09You look at some of the running backs. Cam Scadaboo, Travis Etienne.
19:13You know it's just like fundamentally. I don't know how you can click Colson Loveland's name.
19:18When there are players at other positions. That I think are giving you a reasonable advantage over the field.
19:24So I think there's a lot of projection happening with Colson Loveland.
19:28And I do understand the upside here. That like last year he dealt with that shoulder injury in the preseason.
19:34He dealt with some midseason injuries as well. But I talk all the time about just the goldfish brain of fantasy managers.
19:41And I think people remember that Colson Loveland finished the year strong.
19:44That the Bears made a run in the playoffs.
19:47And that Loveland was a big part of you know the offensive game plan throughout the playoffs.
19:52Where Tyler Warren over the second half of the season was playing with a noodle armed Phil Rivers.
19:58And Daniel Jones was injured. And he kind of burned fantasy managers down the stretch.
20:02So this to me when I'm in drafts. I mean I do understand the upside case for Loveland.
20:08Like I pay attention close to the Bears beat.
20:11And people are getting excited about it. But it is so easy to pass on Loveland knowing that two rounds later I can get Tyler Warren.
20:19Who I have in the same exact tier. Yeah.
20:22Yeah I actually have Warren ahead of Loveland for whatever that's worth.
20:25But they're right next to like 73 and 75 in my overall standard league ranks.
20:30Which means I'm not getting either one because that's not where they go.
20:34But I was just my surprise was just to see them treated differently.
20:38You're right I can explain it. It's just a little bit surprising to me.
20:42What's your number four? So this one is more of a player take here.
20:47Blake Corum going in round eight. I would have expected that he'd be going a little bit higher than that after we saw last year.
20:54He carved out a pretty big chunk of this backfield.
20:57And I don't know if it's just that people are looking at the projections here and saying you know Blake Corum should
21:04get 30 to 40 percent of the backfield. And if that's the way you're looking at this.
21:10I think it makes sense to draft him as what he's going right now.
21:14The RB 34. That would make sense. That like he is you know the second running back that has a lot of value on his team.
21:22So I get why he's going there. But I think he should be going so much higher because there's also contingent upside here.
21:29If Kyron Williams were to miss any time. This guy is something you don't see frequently in fantasy football.
21:35Somebody that you can draft that has standalone value.
21:38Or when you get into bye weeks and injuries you can rely on Blake Corum.
21:42And he can have that random game even alongside Kyron Williams where he can put up 60-80 yards.
21:48Get the occasional touchdown. Gets involved as a pass catcher.
21:51And if Kyron Williams misses any time. Then we're looking at a weekly plug and play top 10 running back.
21:57So I think this is one that the market is just completely wrong on right now.
22:02You can draft him in round eight. Like you're basically drafting him as a bench stash.
22:07You're not even relying on him to be a week one starter.
22:11But you still get that bye week usability and elite contingent upside.
22:14I think this guy should be going two, three rounds higher than he is.
22:19And I was kind of shocked when I started drafting this year.
22:22Saw where he was. And then that ADP has not budged at all this offseason.
22:27I'm probably responsible for that. That's about where I have him.
22:30It's all me. It's all me. But I understand what you're saying.
22:34And, you know, I've said so many times, you know, I'll be watching Rams film.
22:39And they look so similar. And their numbers are 20, what, 22 and 23.
22:43And I can't tell which is which. That's a good sign for Blake Corum that he's pretty much the same player as Kyron Williams.
22:51It's good. It's funny, though. Like, I mean, I guess I'll just do.
22:55I mean, actually, let me just. Yeah, let me just do my number two.
22:59Your number four is that Blake Corum is too low.
23:02My number two is that Kyron Williams is too low.
23:05Fair. So, you know, like it's. Where do you have Kyron?
23:08I, if I was a true professional, I would have had my rankings pulled up before we started the show.
23:15I believe I've got him around RB13 or RB14, but I'm pulling that up right now.
23:20Okay. I have him 10, but like that's fine.
23:22You know, that's the right neighborhood. But RB13, RB14, that's not a third round pick.
23:27Like late third is where he's going. Yeah. So I've actually, I've got him at RB15.
23:32So yeah, about what I expected here. And I could even like push him up.
23:37I've got him in the same tier as Josh Jacobs, who's dealing with a little injury right now.
23:42So I could get him up as high as like RB13, kind of right alongside Javante Williams.
23:47So that said, like where in your combined ranks is he?
23:51So combined ranks, I'd have him as like a fourth round pick.
23:55And a lot of that comes down to, I don't think.
23:58Hold on. Your RB15 is a fourth round pick?
24:01Yeah, I've got, and we'll save that for one of my later ones.
24:05But I do have wide receivers pushed up a little bit higher in my rankings than I think the ADP does this year.
24:12And I think Kyron Williams, a very, very good football player.
24:15But it does worry me a little bit that over the second half of the season, we saw them kind of doing
24:22like the one drive on, one drive off. And that does skew a little bit.
24:27Every team does that, Dave. Every team does that.
24:29I mean, I just think, so I would take Kyron Williams in the second round and wouldn't even blink.
24:35I think he's been the RB, what, RB4, RB6, RB8 the last three years.
24:40And I've watched all those games too. And every time the rubber met the road, it was Kyron Williams.
24:46Right. And he does get the high value stuff.
24:48The two-minute drill, the goal line. He does get a lot of that.
24:52So I understand the upside here. But it's just when I look inside that tier of running backs where I'm looking at
24:59Josh Jacobs and Brees Hall and Jeremiah Love, I mean, Kyron Williams is the only healthy guy right now of that bunch.
25:06But we're really kind of splitting hairs there right now.
25:09And that's why I'm able to move Kyron up a little bit because right now he's the healthiest of the bunch.
25:15But I do fear that Blake Horowitz is pushing for a bigger workload.
25:19Yeah, everybody's pushing for a bigger workload. I just think we could go to every single running back and be like, ooh, there's another guy.
25:27There's four guys who don't have another guy. And all I know is that the Rams are one of the few offenses
25:34I pretty much trust to be good. And I've got three straight years of us assuming that someone was going to take
25:41Kyron Williams' job and no one ever really doing it.
25:44So, I mean, I can't wait to get to your next, your future we're going to get later on the list about running backs and wide receivers.
25:52Because I think we buried the lead there. The idea that when you said he was your RB15, I was like, okay, cool.
25:59So he's going to be end of round two for you.
26:03And you're like, that's round four. Or that's, that's, that's interesting to me.
26:07And you know what? We can, do you want to get into that one?
26:11Because that's my third one that we can talk about right now that I was a little bit surprised by.
26:17Why don't, why don't we wait until we finish the break?
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27:29Okay, we are back with Dave. And we were just talking about positional, like ordering wide receivers versus running backs.
27:35And that, I think you said, leads into your number three surprise for fantasy ADP.
27:40Yeah, it's that draft boards right now look like it's 2006 again.
27:43I was kind of surprised to see how high running backs are going in drafts.
27:48And I think the reason because of this is that last year running backs stayed healthy.
27:53Like a lot of the guys that were drafted early stayed healthy.
27:57And last year, it very much so was a robust running back type of year.
28:01If you drafted running backs early, you probably won your fantasy league.
28:05But we have 20 years of data telling us that running backs get injured more than any other position.
28:11To me, last year was a bit of a wonk year where we saw a lot of high value wide receivers going down, running backs staying healthy.
28:19And now it's like we've just thrown two decades of data out the window and just gone back to drafting running backs early.
28:26So this is a year where I find myself, I don't do this every single year.
28:31But when I'm in drafts, I prefer a lot of the early round wide receivers.
28:36And there are, you know, Drake London and A.J.
28:39Brown and Nico Collins, Rashi Rice, Malik Neighbors. These are guys that I prefer to a lot of the running backs that are going in round two instead.
28:47So I was shocked when I started drafting this year and saw a lot of people.
28:52Like it's not uncommon in a draft to see six to eight drafters walking out with two running backs in the first two rounds.
29:00And to me, it was just a little bit of a shell shock because that is not how drafters have treated fantasy for the last decade.
29:08First of all, wonk year. So we call Harold Fannin the wonk.
29:12So last year was the year of Harold Fannin.
29:14It was a wonk year. That is fair. It is obviously people are like hearing that you say that and it's a valid perspective.
29:22And they're knowing that I don't agree with it.
29:25But I understand where you're coming from. So I'm not going to like get, you know, this is a firmly held belief that you have.
29:32It runs contrary to my firmly held belief that people always should have been drafting this way and that we're moving slightly more in the right direction.
29:41Because my side of the argument would be, OK, sure.
29:44Injuries can happen to everybody. I mean, all the receivers got hurt last year.
29:48Like, you know, injuries can happen. They are more likely to happen to the car crash victims.
29:53Those are the running backs. No question about it.
29:56However, for me, that doesn't countervail over the scarcity at running back, which is overwhelming as opposed to wide receiver.
30:02I just I've said it a million times on the show, but I say it to different guests to get different reactions.
30:09I look at whoever I would take at wide receiver seven and whoever whoever I would take at wide receiver 40.
30:15And I can make a case that the 40 guy could actually wind up better than the seven guy in a way
30:22that I absolutely cannot make the case for running backs, like even without an injury, because that's the league.
30:28Now, the league is such a passing league and three wide is the base formation.
30:33And the rotation of receivers is maddening. And in any given week, Nico Collins, who is a great player, but how many
30:40times did he do two for 11 last year?
30:42It was wild. So this is this continues to be as as almost all things are for me in a fantasy draft,
30:49a scarcity argument and that running backs are simply more scarce.
30:53I run out of the good ones so fast that I still need to like I think it's hilarious.
30:58You're calling drafting like 2006. I absolutely get it.
31:01And and by the way, absolutely respect your opinion.
31:04I don't mean to tell you that I know that I'm right or whatever.
31:08This is just my perspective on it. And I do think that there's a small handful of running backs that have just delineated themselves from everybody else.
31:17Like, don't hear what I'm not saying. I'm not saying that you should take Jackson Smith and the Jigbo over Jameer Gibbs.
31:23Like, that's not what I'm saying. Jameer Gibbs, B.
31:26John Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, fingers crossed that he can stay healthy.
31:30And then I think you've got James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown.
31:33Those are kind of your difference makers. But I think what I'm most surprised by, Chris, is kind of this cluster.
31:40There's there's two clusters where I think we have the running backs and the wide receivers kind of flip flopped.
31:46Like when I see this Devon H. And Saquon Barkley, Omari and Hampton, Kenneth Walker cluster of running backs.
31:52Like there are major question marks with all of those guys, in my opinion.
31:56And I would prefer Drake London and A.J. Brown to those guys.
32:00And then what we talk about Kyron Williams, like I've got Kyron Williams as my RB15 pretty in line with ADP right now.
32:07But I do prefer, say, Flowers, Emeka Buka, T.
32:10Higgins, Ladd McConkie and D.J. Moore to Kyron Williams.
32:13So while I've kind of got him similar in running back rankings when I fold in my overall rankings, I just prefer
32:19a lot of the wide receivers in that range to the running backs going there.
32:24I get it. What kind of running backs do you wind up with then?
32:28So I like to get one of those early guys that I mentioned.
32:32You know, if I've got a top two pick, Gibbs or Bijan, without a doubt.
32:37If I'm picking in the middle of a round one, I like trying to get a Jonathan Taylor or James Cook.
32:43Late round one, I'm taking Chase Brown. So I do like to get one of those hero running backs early.
32:50But then I'm OK kind of, I don't know if streaming is the best word, but maybe like Frankensteining together some sort of RB2.
32:57So I'll mix in some Chris Rodriguez and some Blake Corum and then throw in some injury away guys.
33:03You know, your Tank Bigsby's and your Ray Davises.
33:06And I know that in order to do that, I need to manage my team well in season.
33:11I am very rarely paying up for my RB2.
33:14But I think that if I take enough shots on these ambiguous backfields and target some guys that I think may be
33:21a little bit undervalued, that even though it might be bumpy for the first two or three weeks of the season, I'm
33:28pretty confident that I could find somebody that can get me 10 to 12 points per game at my wide receiver two position or at my RB2 position.
33:36And then I think that I'm strong enough at the other wide receiver tight end quarterback positions that I can offset that
33:43little bit of a weakness in my RB2 spot.
33:46Yeah. You think that, but I mean, all I know is my history of doing this is that we're terrible at it.
33:53We think we can manage it. And then it turns out, you know, Terry McLaurin is the wide receiver seven and CD
33:59Lamb is the wide receiver 26 because just they're all real close and very few of them stand out.
34:05They're just, if I take running back, running back and I can get Terry McLaurin in the fifth round, I'm like, awesome.
34:12Like I'll absolutely do that. And I'll take Roma Dunze in the sixth.
34:16Then I'll take Carnell Tate in the sixth. Then I'll take, and I'll feel like my receivers probably match up to your receivers just fine.
34:24Different approaches definitely don't mean to be disrespecting your perspective, but I'm definitely coming at it from the other direction.
34:30Let's do my number three. And actually, my number three, this is going to share some doubt, but it's casting a doubt just on one player.
34:38I am shocked O'Marion Hampton is going early in the second round.
34:42I wouldn't consider him anywhere near the group that you just mentioned that he's going near.
34:47And I mean, people are imagining some Adrian Peterson style player like fitting in an offense and just being amazing.
34:53And I've said it a lot that I understand if it turns out O'Marion Hampton is amazing and his rookie year, you
35:00know, what winds up being a major exception to the rest of his career, then we'll be able to explain it away.
35:07He himself got hurt. His offensive line was a disaster.
35:10That offense, you know, started out humming great in September and then they lose the tackles and it's just not an environment anybody could have excelled in.
35:18But I'm sorry. I watched a lot of film.
35:21Andy Behrens and I did some film room futures on him back in, I can't remember, January, February on the Yacht Club show.
35:28And it just, he didn't have a lot of swivel to his hips.
35:32He didn't have a lot of maneuverability. People like the underwear Olympic scores, the big and fast.
35:37But I didn't see him really like find holes and certainly didn't see him make anybody miss.
35:42He kind of ran to contact a bunch. I think it is absolute wish casting to be taking O'Marion Hampton early second round.
35:49You know, I just did a show with Jason Wood who kind of anchors all of our projections over here at Football Guys.
35:57And we did an interesting show where we talked about players that we have changed our minds on this offseason.
36:03And we both brought O'Marion Hampton to the table.
36:06As guys like early in the offseason, it's easy to just look at Hampton and say this is a young player on a good offense.
36:13And the tackles are coming back to the Chargers.
36:16Like this is a guy that we want to draft.
36:19And then it's not even so much that I moved Hampton down my rankings.
36:23But I found reasons to start moving everybody else up.
36:27Like Chase Brown made it out of the draft unscathed.
36:30They didn't add anybody to that backfield. We feel good about that.
36:33We're getting really good word about the Eagles. And this wide zone scheme that they're going to be operating in with Sean Mannion.
36:40So I'm moving Saquon Barkley up. Kenneth Walker having a good camp, moving him up.
36:45So I keep moving guys up ahead of O'Marion Hampton.
36:48And he just kind of keeps falling down because of that.
36:52We also get, you know, there's been a lot of talk that they're going to be using multiple running backs in San Diego.
36:59Not San Diego, I'm sorry. Los Angeles. You'd think I'd know after 10 years.
37:03But I still slip up every now and then.
37:06But, you know, did you hear the story about Mike McDaniel leaving like the wanted posters all over the clubhouse with Keaton Mitchell on it?
37:14Like saying that he wanted Keaton Mitchell. So he wants to have this guy because Hampton is really good at the short yardage stuff.
37:21You know, he can plow through a couple of guys and score a touchdown.
37:25But I think that this Mike McDaniel offense does want that speed element.
37:29And, you know, Hampton is fast if he can get eight strides unabated and kind of get up to his full speed.
37:36Where Mitchell is that guy that like one foot in the ground and he's at his top speed.
37:42So I think that we are going to see a little bit more of a split here than Hampton drafters would like to admit.
37:49Sure, that's true. I mean, I think that's a great rule of thumb for almost every running back for all.
37:55But like we were saying, five running backs. There's going to be a split.
38:00That's just going to be the nature of the beast.
38:03And you have to find the guys who are exceptionally good at doing.
38:07I mean, that's the NFL. It's been the NFL for years and years.
38:11You know, like two guys a year get 70% of their team's carries.
38:15And Jonathan Taylor is always one of them until he gets hurt.
38:18And people are like, huh, I wonder why he got hurt.
38:22And so like you have to accept that everybody else you're drafting, including Chase Brown, like people taking you're taking him in the first round.
38:30Like he's going to get 60% of the carries.
38:32Like he's not playing third down. That's you have to you have to make peace with that.
38:38So you have to the reason you would consider him there is because Chase Brown has proven.
38:43It's a little rich for my blood on Chase Brown, but I absolutely get it that he's proven he's a really good NFL player.
38:50So you go, you know what? I can't get great production out of whoever and that I take in the seventh round at running back.
38:58So I'm going to take the chance that the really good player can make do with the 60% that I know.
39:04That's usually what starting running backs get. And therefore, my problem with Hampton is just I don't know if he's good.
39:11I don't know if he's the one who's going to take care of it.
39:15Like they all split the jobs. Every team is good.
39:18Cam Scadaboo is going to split the job. Like name the guy.
39:22It's Barkley, McCaffrey, Gibbs, Bajon. And like Bajon, I don't know.
39:25We'll see that new coaching staff. But he's certainly been annoying with workload at times.
39:30Everyone else, they better be good to take advantage of their workload.
39:34And I am not positive of Marian Hampton is good.
39:37He's fast. He's really fast. I mean, you said it so well, which is like he's really fast once he takes his seven strides.
39:44You know, that's exactly right. That's what you see on film.
39:48And the last thing I'll say about this kind of cluster of running backs is I think so many people are just
39:54willing to like treat ADP like law. And they get into a draft and they're just going to take the best running
40:01back available when they're sitting there at the one-two turn.
40:04I think you just, you know, stake a claim.
40:07Like say this is the guy that I want.
40:10Like maybe for you it's Chase Brown. Maybe for somebody else it's Devon Ajan.
40:14Maybe for somebody else it's Saquon Barkley. But I don't think that you should just like blindly take whoever ADP tells you
40:21to take at this point in the draft. Like say with your chest.
40:25Draft the guy that you want to because I think that there will be one or two guys that emerge from this tier.
40:32But just to say ADP is telling me this is the guy that I should take is not how you should be drafting your fantasy football teams.
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41:32What a great organization. FantasyCares.org. We are back with Dave and we have I think three more surprises for ADP.
41:39Two of them are yours. What's your number two?
41:41Would it be a show that you and I did together if we didn't talk about the little badass DJ Moore?
41:48Because this one, Chris, I gotta be honest, it blows my mind where he's getting drafted right now.
41:53For good or for bad, that's what I don't know what you're saying.
41:57I mean, he's going in round five and he is the unquestioned wide receiver one for Josh Allen.
42:03I think that this is a perfect fit for what he does, what he brings to the field.
42:09I think that when you look at Ben Johnson's offense, we hear so much.
42:13It's detail-oriented. It's about being on your spot. They're counting how many steps you're running every route in.
42:18You have to be here on this millisecond. And that's not how Josh Allen plays.
42:23And Josh Allen has said, like, he just wants a receiver who can get open and then he trusts his arm to get it to a receiver.
42:31We have heard nothing but positivity coming out of Bill's camp.
42:35And you and I, when we talked earlier in the offseason, I talked about how much I liked this fit.
42:41Right now, you can go into drafts where you can get DJ Moore as your wide receiver three.
42:47If you're going, like, really wide receiver heavy early, you can get him as a flex player.
42:52This is a guy with a legitimate wide receiver one upside in this draft going off the board as the wide receiver 24.
42:59I'm sorry, wide receiver 25. This is one that I thought would be going much higher.
43:04I have expected his ADP to go up in the offseason.
43:07And he is just stuck there being drafted as a wide receiver three.
43:11And coming from a Bears fan who probably felt somewhat burned by DJ Moore from last year, that definitely means something.
43:18You know I'm on the same side of this one with you.
43:21I have him as a fourth round pick, so that's a round better than he would be in the fifth.
43:28I mean, I guess to turn it back around to that positional conversation, isn't that all the more reason I should be getting good running backs?
43:36Because someone like DJ Moore and several other receivers are going to go in the fifth round where I go, I don't
43:42know, is there a huge difference between DJ Moore and AJ Brown?
43:46By the end of the year, if they're both healthy, who's going to lay me odds that DJ Moore is going to
43:53be way worse than AJ Brown stats-wise? I think that's...
43:56I would give you like a 40% chance that Brown's better.
43:59Yeah. That Moore is better, rather. And I think the player like DJ Moore, it doesn't even matter who I take in the early rounds.
44:07You know, there's so many players where I'm like, you know, I'll draft this guy if I go running back heavy or whatever.
44:14Like, I kind of have to like talk myself.
44:17DJ Moore is a guy, if I go running back heavy and I throw in a Brock Bowers or a Trey McBride
44:24or something like that, I can come back in round four or five and add DJ Moore as a wide receiver one and feel good about it.
44:32If I go wide receiver heavy and I'm drafting him as a wide receiver three, I feel good about it.
44:38Like, this is just a player that I think is so mispriced that however you spend your first three or four round
44:45picks, you can still fit DJ Moore in there and it's going to work out for you more often than it won't.
44:52I mean, he's such a fun player on film.
44:55He's so explosive. He's such a... I mean, I mean it in the best way possible.
45:00A tryhard. Like, he's just... Yeah. It's full bore all the time.
45:03And, you know, he's been such a fan. I've been such a fan since really, like, second year in the league.
45:10If I were to play devil's advocate, which I'm not because I'm on the same side of this argument as you when it comes to DJ Moore.
45:18Absolutely. Please don't take this as me being contradictory to what you're saying.
45:22But, like, if I was going to take the devil's advocate position, it would be cool, cool, cool, cool.
45:28So, Harris has been raving about DJ Moore for eight seasons and how many elite fantasy seasons has he produced?
45:34And that would be one with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent.
45:38In a completely broken offense. In a completely bad, terrible, like, misbegotten offense that got everybody fired.
45:43So, is there... I mean, I'm anticipating that coming because that's not my argument.
45:47I like DJ Moore. He's still, what, going to turn 29 this year.
45:51Like, I'm good. I'm good on DJ Moore. I agree with you.
45:55I'd take him in the fourth round. There can sometimes just be guys who film junkies fall in love with who never quite put it together.
46:03I don't really believe that's a thing. I think you can go through Moore's entire career and step-by-step explain what happened.
46:10But at some point, that is a little exhausting.
46:12Right. Yeah. You kind of find yourself, my rule of thumb is like, if I have to spend like 10 minutes telling
46:19you the excuses why this player hasn't been good, they might just not be good.
46:24But we have seen elite seasons from DJ Moore.
46:27You know, we saw like this guy was just a lock for 1,000 yards per season when he was in Carolina.
46:33We saw the big 1,400-yard season with Justin Fields.
46:36And I really think that, you know, this wasn't a sign of him being bad at football.
46:41I think it was just a terrible fit, which we do see schematically from time to time.
46:46You know, how many miscues were there last year in Chicago because DJ Moore was trying to find the soft spot when
46:53he should have been staying on his line or he was trying to freelance a little bit.
46:58I think it was you that said kind of bebop in and jazz in his way around the field.
47:04I mean, that's what we see from DJ Moore a lot.
47:08And I think that works really well in Buffalo.
47:10It doesn't so much in Chicago. Yes. I'm going to be on the same side of this with you.
47:16I'm just trying to say I understand why people are like, man, I feel bruised.
47:21I don't think I want to go there. I mean, that explains the ADP.
47:25I think people feel bruised, even though logically what we're saying makes a lot of sense.
47:30So my number two was Kyron Williams. So being late third round, which I'm pretty surprised by.
47:35So we are up to your number one. Yeah.
47:38And this one, it's a little bit of a player take and a little bit of a team take.
47:44But the Jacksonville wide receivers, I have not really been able to understand the ADP for these guys.
47:50We've got Parker Washington, first of all, going ahead of Brian Thomas Jr.
47:54And both of them going in round six. But then we also still have Jacoby Myers is getting drafted here.
48:00And Brenton Strange is still a part of this.
48:03And with all of this, you see a huge discount on Trevor Lawrence.
48:07And I've spent so much time just thinking about this Jacksonville offense and why these ADPs are the way that they are.
48:13And as you kind of pay attention to rumbles around the industry, you have two very strong camps.
48:19You have your Parker Washington camp and your Brian Thomas camp.
48:22And I think what happened is that both of these guys have dragged both of their ADPs to a point where they've extracted the value out of this.
48:31Where we've got Parker Washington going inside of round five.
48:34Brian Thomas Jr. going inside of round five. I think both of these are good players.
48:39But this ball is going to get spread thin in Jacksonville.
48:43There are a lot of talented receivers in this offense right now.
48:46And I'm at a point now where the Parker Washington guys have dragged his ADP up so high.
48:52And the Brian Thomas guys have dragged his ADP up so high.
48:55That I think both of these guys are just massive avoids at their current ADPs.
49:00Interesting. It might be true that they can't both deliver at their draft positions.
49:04It might be true. You know, we did a mock draft that is out now actually on UTEP.
49:10That was the one that Cousin Josh was on but also the winner of our listener podcast.
49:15So we actually had a listener on a mock draft.
49:18He was great. Joe, he was fantastic. And we got into it a little bit talking about Brian Thomas.
49:24And the idea that, you know, last year the new Jags coaching staff, it very much felt like they came in to
49:31turn Brian Thomas into an all field receiver. You're not just going to be the X.
49:36You're going to run out of the slot. You're going to do a bunch of timing routes.
49:41You're going to get screens, you know, all that stuff.
49:44And within a month they were like, oh my God, no.
49:48You know, within a month they were like, you can't do those things.
49:52So to me, if anything, I mean, I actually am okay with the trademark Matt Harmon, sacrificial X, Brian Thomas.
49:58You know, at some point the sacrificial X with a relatively potentially good offense that gets to make, you know, gets to
50:05have five games in the year where he makes a big play and the rest of the time he sucks.
50:11It sucks. Like your mileage may vary, but that guy probably should go in the sixth round now because that's probably a 1,100 yard receiver and seven touchdowns.
50:20And for whatever, you know, that's just the state of receiver right now.
50:24That guy finishes as the wide receiver 21 or something.
50:27It's annoying, but that's the state of wide receiver right now.
50:30But that ride might not be for everybody. I'm with you.
50:33Like I bet you when we get everybody listening into their drafts, I think someone in every draft is going to be
50:40like Parker Washington late round three, Parker Washington early round four.
50:44Like to me, he's the one, he probably is the best player of the group, but it will start to get maybe,
50:50he's just a little too unproven for me to go quite that high.
50:54Yeah. Yeah. And it's one of those, like when I first got in my, one of my first drafts and I was
51:01like, you know, Parker Washington loved what I saw late in the year.
51:05Like this is a guy that I really want to target in round eight or nine of my drafts in every single draft.
51:12And then I see where he's going in round four in round five.
51:16And it's just, people have gotten way over their skis here.
51:20I think there is, you know, a complimentary skillset between Brian Thomas jr.
51:24And Parker Washington. I think that they benefit each other, but then you've still got Jacoby Myers and you've still got Brenton strange.
51:31And I know Travis Hunter, you know, the jokes kind of write themselves with Travis Hunter, but even if he is only
51:38playing 30, 40% of the snaps, like they're going to be designing plays to get the ball in his hand when he's on the field.
51:45This to me, it either seems like all of the Jaguars pass catchers are way overvalued or Trevor Lawrence is drastically undervalued.
51:52Yeah. I mean, but that speaks to your very first point, which is that he probably, probably the answer is Trevor Lawrence
51:59is undervalued, but you just can't hike his value because there's so many other quarterbacks you can make a case for, you
52:06know, it's just, they're, they're sort of all this, all the same.
52:10I'll just be, I'll say like, if, if I get to the sixth, I would take Parker Washington.
52:15I'm okay with it. Yeah. But, but I don't think that's going to be there for a lot of people when I
52:22think when the real drafts really, when that data starts getting in, you know, so much is about your platform and what the default ranks are.
52:30And some platforms don't even change their default ranks.
52:33Like we'll, we'll be in September and people will still have Alec Pierce in their default ranks, like really high.
52:39And you'll be auto drafting Alec Pierce for some reason.
52:42But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Washington winds up being the one that, that rises.
52:47Okay. So my, excuse me, my number one just really relates back to your very first point, but I'm just going to make a particular case.
52:55You mentioned his name and everyone knows that I'm going to say this, but my biggest surprise is that Matthew Stafford is just completely being ignored for fantasy.
53:04Like we're pretending like he wasn't the MVP of the league last year.
53:08I, in the numbers that football guys has run at this point, he's QB 13 and other places he's QB 15.
53:14I just think it's insane. Um, it's somewhat the tyranny of running quarterbacks and those people still holding out for Anthony Richardson over in the side over there.
53:23You know, they can, they can, uh, go, go pound sand.
53:26Um, I have Stafford as QB five. I don't even vaguely understand the case.
53:30It's one of the few offenses that we can enter the year thinking, man, it would be a pretty big upset if
53:37that wasn't a pretty elite offense and Stafford himself is coming off an MVP season.
53:42And okay, great. We've said this a million times in the show, but you haven't heard me say it.
53:48Great. He's going to regress. He's going to take 12 touchdowns off the top.
53:52Boom. Guaranteed. That always happens. Cool. If he'd taken off 12 last year, he still would have led the league in touchdowns.
53:59Um, it just seems wild to me. And it reminds me so much of the, the, the last good years of Aaron
54:06Rodgers in Green Bay when people were like, well, now he's done now, now he's done MVP.
54:11MVP. Okay. But now he's done MVP again. Um, I think it's, I think, you know, people can expect to hear Stafford's
54:18name later in the week when we get to the flag list, cause it's just crazy.
54:23And, uh, we can all talk about getting him in the double digit rounds.
54:27Yeah. I think, you know, the, this Rams offense is one that I just want a part of whether it's the running
54:34backs, the receivers, even like late round Terrence Ferguson, like this is just an offense that you want a part of.
54:40I will say the counter argument that I've heard to this, which I'm not putting a whole lot of credence into is
54:47that now with miles Garrett there with Aaron Donald expected to return, that this is going to be a better defense, which
54:54like they were an awesome defense last year and that didn't stop Stafford from still producing.
54:59So I think people just, you know, inherently they want to find reasons to talk themselves out of drafting old players.
55:05And if the reason for not wanting to draft an old player is because they're signing an old player on defense, I
55:12think you might need to kind of take a look at that logic.
55:16Yeah. Check yourself. It's, it's, it's wild. I, you know, of course we know Stafford has more injury risk than a lot of people.
55:24He, I've had two herniated discs the last two years, they suck and he won't be able to play if he herniates one again.
55:31But that the whole point is the quarterback is wide open.
55:34There's so many quarterbacks. There's so many replacements available in a super flex.
55:38Okay. But like if I take Stafford and super flex, I'll still feel good about it.
55:43I'll just make sure I take another good quarterback.
55:46You know, if I take Stafford in the fourth or the fifth in a super flex, I'll make sure I take maybe one even higher than him.
55:54Even though I plan on, you know, Stafford being the better of the two.
55:59It's just, it is a wild decision by the market.
56:02And it was my biggest ADP surprise going. This was really fun.
56:06Great conversation, Dave. Thank you so much for doing this.
56:09I would love it if everybody would follow Dave on social media.
56:12Your, your choice of platforms. Just look up, look them up there.
56:16And subscribe to the football guys, fantasy football show.
56:19Also producing five episodes per week. And then also the occasional live stream.
56:23What a pleasure, my friend. Great job. Thank you for doing it.
56:27Thank you, Chris. This is such a fun time of year.
56:30Just kind of plugging into drafts, seeing where these players are going.
56:34It is a lot of fun. Can't believe that the season's already here.
56:38Like, you know, I'm sure you've done the same kind of like mapping out what you're doing between now and week one
56:44and saying like, there aren't enough days left in the week for me to do all the things I want to do.
56:51It comes up on us pretty quickly. It does indeed.
56:54Thank you so much for listening. Let me also thank the sponsors without whom there would have been no show.
57:01We had Wild Grain. And it's so delicious. I wish you would try out Wild Grain.
57:05Lisa, also delicious in a different way. The mattress, love it very much.
57:10And Fantasy Cares. How about that? Three delicious sponsors.
57:12You can find out information about today's sponsors in today's show notes.
57:16All the current sponsors are listed at harrisfootball.com. It is awesome when you have a need and you have the means to support a sponsor.
57:24That's how the whole thing keeps going. So many of you do that.
57:28I appreciate you so very much. How about we do our book giveaway drawing?
57:32You've been bribed and we have a winner. Today's prize is a cameo of sorts from me.
57:37Basically, whatever you want me to say on video.
57:40I'll like if you want me to talk trash.
57:43If you want me to announce your league order.
57:46If you want me to just give a personalized message to someone in your league or in your life or whatever.
57:52Basically, I'll just record a video for today's winner.
57:55And again, that doesn't sound like much of a prize to me.
57:59But hopefully does to you. Jonathan Dobrovich. Your number came up.
58:02You are the winner today. I have already sent you an email by the time you're hearing this, hopefully.
58:08And we'll work out something. I'll record a video for you.
58:11I want to remind you that there are lots more drawings to come every day.
58:16Every show day, the West of the Way through this month.
58:19And probably into the first week of September too.
58:22To try to get you to pre-order Pound Foolish.
58:25Which you can find at harrisfootball.com. And the big prize, I haven't said for a few days.
58:30But the big prize is going to be, I think that first week in September.
58:35We'll find a segment where the grand, grand, grand prize winner will get to come on the actual podcast.
58:41And talk to me for whatever, five minutes or something.
58:44Ask me some questions. Interview me maybe. Maybe that's the way we'll do it.
58:48And so if that sounds interesting to you, you should enter.
58:51Not that many people have entered. So, you know, if you do, you have a decent chance to win.
58:57Again, find out all that info at harrisfootball.com. Remember the tour starts on Sunday in Tacoma.
59:02And then Portland. And then Vegas. And then Phoenix.
59:05And then the following week, Los Angeles. I would love to meet you.
59:09I would love to see you there. Your hat is awesome.
59:12It would be so exciting to meet some new friends.
59:16That is going to do it for this Tuesday episode.
59:19For the Yacht Clubbers coming up on Wednesday, Andy Behrens and I are going to do some futures hunting.
59:25We're going to take a look at the lines for the season-long wagering world on the teams and the players.
59:31And talk about ones that we like and ones that maybe we don't like so much.
59:36And then we'll all meet back here on the free side on Thursday.
59:40That's right. The flag players begin. The first part of the flag list will come on Thursday.
59:45The second on Friday. My guest on Thursday will be Matt Harmon.
59:49And Matt and I are going to talk about offenses we just might, in fact, wind up being wrong about, heaven forbid,
59:55that we don't know in our mind palaces everything that's going to happen situation-wise before an NFL season begins.
60:01I'm looking forward to that one as well. Until then, thanks again so much for listening.
60:06Your hat is, in fact, awesome. You're awesome for wearing it.
60:10I will talk to you next time. The Harris Football Podcast's opening theme is Under the Gun by Apex Manor.
60:16The closing theme is Say Yes by The Wellspring.
60:19Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and never miss an episode.

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