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TNF fantasy REAX + 6 biggest fantasy questions we want answered in Week 1

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 11, 2026
Published
Fri, September 11, 2026
33
Player insights
31
Players mentioned
Topics
Michael MayerTre TuckerBlake CorumBrock BowersCaleb DouglasCarnell TateChris BellChristian McCaffreyChristian WatsonD.J. MooreDavante AdamsDe'Zhaun StriblingDemarcus RobinsonDontayvion Wicks
Player analysis

Player insights

33

Blake Corum

NegativeUsage22:01

Matt Harmon notes that Blake Coram is still in a drive-by-drive rotation with Kyren Williams, contradicting training camp reports that suggested he might see an increased, more even split. He did not show the explosive playmaking expected to force a larger role.

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Brock Bowers

NegativeInjury31:03

Josh Norris and Matt Harmon discuss the impact of Brock Bowers' injury, noting that the Raiders' offense was specifically designed around his unique skill set. The team is expected to struggle to replace his production, likely shifting to more 11 personnel in his absence.

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Caleb Douglas

NegativeRole59:46

Caleb Douglas is confirmed as a Week 1 starter for the Dolphins alongside Chris Bell. Harmon expects him to operate primarily as the X-receiver in the offense, serving as a target in wide-open areas.

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Carnell Tate

NegativeUsage62:26

Carnell Tate is expected to operate as the Z-receiver for the Titans, potentially benefiting from an RPO-heavy scheme similar to Michael Pittman's role under Gardner Minshew. However, Harmon notes that his target share may be capped by the presence of Wan'Dale Robinson.

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Chris Bell

PositiveBreakout59:41

Chris Bell is a Week 1 starter for the Dolphins with no pitch count, according to coach Jeff Halfley. Harmon highlights his linear, athletic skill set—specifically his ability to break tackles and work slants/crossers—as a potential fit for the team's Shanahan-style offense.

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Christian McCaffrey

NegativeUsage10:05

Despite a 50-50 carry split with Kalen Black, McCaffrey remained heavily involved in the passing game (8 targets) and is still viewed as a top-5 fantasy running back. Harmon advises against panic, noting the split is a logical preservation strategy.

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Christian Watson

PositiveValue44:40

Matt Harmon has been aggressively drafting Christian Watson, viewing him as one of the most mispriced players in fantasy drafts based on the expectation that the Packers will prioritize their three main receivers.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeUsage66:53

Harmon identifies DJ Moore as a candidate for a significant shift in his route diet, noting that he was one of the most misused receivers last year. The expectation is that he will serve as a man-coverage beater for the Bills, though Harmon expresses some skepticism regarding Moore's recent production decline.

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Davante Adams

NegativeRole25:06

Matt Harmon suggests a slight stock-down for Davante Adams, noting that Puka Nacua appears to be encroaching on his high-value goal-line role. The team's lack of additional playmakers and previous trade rumors add further uncertainty to his outlook.

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De'Zhaun Stribling

NegativeInjury7:36

Deshaun Stribbling suffered a non-contact ankle injury that required him to be carted off the field. Harmon and Winks expect an IR stint, noting he was a significant part of the game plan before the injury.

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Demarcus Robinson

PositiveRole7:34

With Deshaun Stribbling injured, Demarcus Robinson stepped into a vertical X-receiver role. Harmon suggests he could be a 'frisky' fantasy option in deeper leagues.

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Dontayvion Wicks

PositiveSleeper52:44

Matt Harmon is cautiously optimistic about Dontayvion Wicks, noting he will run more routes than Makai Lemon in Week 1. Wicks is a versatile route runner who can play all three receiver positions, and Harmon expects him to be involved in the Eagles' play-action and out-cut concepts.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveMatchup76:05

Harmon highlights Garrett Wilson as a player to watch in Week 1 against the Titans, noting that the Titans' secondary may be forced to play Alante Taylor on the outside, which creates a favorable matchup for Wilson.

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George Kittle

NegativeUsage3:45

George Kittle played only 44% of the dropbacks in the season opener. Matt Harmon and Hayden Winks suggest fantasy managers should park him in the 15-18 TE range until his route participation increases to 75-80%, which could take about a month.

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Jack Bech

PositiveBreakout33:12

Josh Norris suggests Jack Besh could see a significant increase in route participation and opportunity due to the Brock Bowers injury. Besh fits the 'move Joker' tight end role and may benefit from the team shifting to 11 personnel.

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Jalen Nailor

NegativeRole39:58

Matt Harmon notes that Jalen Naylor and Trey Tucker complement each other, with Naylor excelling on out-breaking routes while Tucker handles in-breaking routes.

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James Cook

PositiveUsage68:45

There is an expectation that James Cook will catch more passes this season. Harmon notes that Cook could find success against the Texans' man-coverage looks, specifically when isolated against linebackers.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveRole59:04

Matt Harmon notes that when 100% healthy, Jeremiah Love is the clear primary receiver for the Arizona Cardinals, though he acknowledges Tyrell might carry the ball more in Week 1 due to the game script against the Chargers.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeInjury41:15

Josh Jacobs is sidelined for Week 1, leading to uncertainty regarding the Packers' backfield usage against a tough Vikings defense.

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Kyren Williams

NegativeUsage21:18

Matt Harmon observes that Kyren Williams remains in a drive-by-drive rotation with Blake Coram, similar to last year. While Williams scored a goal-line touchdown, the split usage limits his ceiling, potentially moving him from an RB1 to an RB2 if the team's overall scoring efficiency dips.

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Malachi Fields

NegativeRole63:58

Harmon suggests Malachi Fields could see increased opportunity as the number two receiver for the Giants following the release of Darius Slayton.

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MarShawn Lloyd

NegativeUsage42:22

Matt Harmon suggests Marshawn Lloyd is unlikely to see significant snaps in Week 1 due to pass protection concerns against Brian Flores' aggressive Vikings defense. Harmon expects Chris Brooks to handle more work and advises patience, noting Lloyd is a 'destined player for the week one panic meter.'

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Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection18:34

Stafford struggled with accuracy, throwing several interceptable passes and failing to find rhythm against the 49ers' defense, which seemed to anticipate his dig routes.

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Michael Mayer

PositiveValue36:03

Josh Norris and Matt Harmon view Michael Mayer as a viable 'punt' play at tight end while Brock Bowers is out. Mayer has starting-caliber traits and may be utilized in a more versatile role, making him a solid streaming option.

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PositiveValue38:15

Matt Harmon views Michael Mayer as a strong punt play option, noting he is widely available and has demonstrated fantasy production in games where Brock Bowers has been sidelined.

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Michael Wilson

PositiveValue72:40

Harmon drafted Michael Wilson heavily because he was cheaper than Marvin Harrison Jr. while being ranked in the same tier. He believes Wilson's role as a detached Z-receiver fits his talent well.

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Mike Evans

PositiveUsage5:55

Mike Evans looked explosive and quick, showing separation on out-breakers and slants. Harmon notes that Evans was utilized in the slot and outside, and despite limited training camp practice, he remains a must-start player.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveUsage24:36

Matt Harmon notes that Puka Nacua was used as the lone receiver in goal-line sets, a departure from last year's usage. If this role continues, it provides significant fantasy upside, especially given his ability to draw targets at the goal line.

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Saquon Barkley

PositiveProjection47:51

Matt Harmon identifies Saquon Barkley as the most important player on the Eagles' offense, projecting a potential monster week against the Commanders due to positive game script and the team's shift toward more under-center work.

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Terrance Ferguson

NegativeUsage22:42

Matt Harmon notes that Terrence Ferguson's role was inconsistent, with his route participation scaling back after an initial high. He ran routes on roughly half the dropbacks, which is insufficient for fantasy relevance, and Harmon plans to drop him.

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Tre Tucker

PositiveSleeper37:15

Matt Harmon mentions Trey Tucker as a deep sleeper option, particularly in deep leagues with multiple flex spots, due to his vertical route-running ability and favorable matchups.

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PositiveUsage38:26

Matt Harmon highlights Trey Tucker as a potential beneficiary of the Raiders' new vertical passing scheme under Clint Kubiak. Despite initial expectations for Jalen Naylor, beat writers consistently identified Tucker as the WR1 throughout training camp, and he may serve as the team's primary pass catcher given the current roster flux.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveUsage70:21

Harmon believes Zay Flowers is in a prime position for a big Week 1 against the Colts, citing his efficiency against man coverage (3.06 yards per route) and the potential for increased red-zone usage in a new offensive scheme.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,386
0:00Big show for you here today, Yahoo Fantasy Forecast was presented by Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL.
0:06All season long, Toyota is celebrating the passion, traditions, and unforgettable moments that make football America's obsession from fantasy football to every kickoff rivalry and Sunday ritual.
0:13Like I said, it's a big show here on this one.
0:17Hayden Winks joins me off the top to recap.
0:19Niners, Rams, ton to get into from what was a pretty surprising and decisive San Francisco 49ers.
0:24Win over the LA Rams halfway across the freaking world over there in Australia.
0:28We cover everything you need to know from both teams, including Kalen Black's role.
0:32That's got to be the biggest story in fantasy coming out of that game.
0:36We deep dive on that and why we actually kind of think this makes a lot of sense for the San Francisco 49ers.
0:43Sorry about your fantasy teams, but it does make sense.
0:45And frankly, your fantasy teams are going to be fine.
0:48We explain that in the show. Then Josh Norris hops on with me to unpack six key questions heading into the week
0:55one slate and look at some games that maybe you're overlooking.
0:58All right. But might have some significant fantasy football storylines.
1:01Which wide receivers see the biggest change in their usage?
1:04Thanks to new play callers and new teams. We dive into that and a ton of your questions at the end of the show.
1:10It's a packed one. All that and more come up on today's show.
1:14Let's get into it. What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
1:17Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast Nightcap. And it is a hell of an evening to talk ball.
1:22And joining me to do just that, to recap 49ers, 27 Rams, 7.
1:26It is my guy, Hayden Winks. Hayden, what's going on, man?
1:29Sleepy games. Long flight. Yeah, I'm sure we got plenty to talk about with this one.
1:34Just, yeah, I can't believe that was the Rams showing tonight.
1:37Pathetic. Yeah, pretty pathetic stuff. Okay. As usual, we're going to start the nightcap.
1:41We will get to it. I do usually want to lead off the team that wins the football game.
1:46But I just have to address this nonsense with the Rams getting there.
1:50Freaking 24 hours ahead of time. What are we talking about?
1:53Okay. I'm not here to make excuses for how they played all game.
1:57Like, I'm not going to do the typical NFL media carries the water for the Rams.
2:02Like, oh, don't worry. It'll be fine. I do want to hesitate, like, making big picture takeaways from the Los Angeles Rams about this game because of this.
2:10Simply because, Hayden, it is nonsense that they're like, let me get there 24 hours ahead of time coming off a 15-hour flight halfway across the freaking world.
2:18I mean, this was a silly idea beforehand, and it looks even worse in hindsight.
2:22It does look worse. I was just looking at it.
2:25This was the first game where Miles Garrett had not had a pressure since 2018, week 10.
2:30So we're talking about a freak of nature, and even this was too much for him.
2:34Apparently, he got one at the very end of the game, but I still count that stat as the point of, this is just ridiculous.
2:41Even Miles Garrett didn't seem to be himself. That's all I need to know.
2:45I don't need any sleep studies, any of that nonsense.
2:48I don't care about the science right now. I only care about anecdotes, and that's a great anecdote.
2:53That's a great stat that Miles Garrett doesn't even have a pressure in this game.
2:58I mean, come on. I will say, and we can use this to transition to the San Francisco 49ers here.
3:03I thought they had a great game plan all night long for limiting that Rams defense.
3:08One of the most interesting stats from the entire game, I thought, was from Sumer Live, had this 32.4% screen rate for
3:14the San Francisco 49ers in this game. That is 21.2% over the NFL average.
3:18I mean, they were just getting that ball. They spent all that extra time there, did the San Francisco 49ers, adjusting their body clocks.
3:25How much of that time was spent on installing screens?
3:28Because that was a clear emphasis point for Shanahan and the boys on the other side of this.
3:33Average time to throw was just 2.1 seconds for Brock Purdy here.
3:37So it's just a ridiculous performance by the 2.7 time to throw there for the 49ers.
3:41Yeah, they got everyone kind of involved. Christian McCaffrey in the screening game.
3:45George Kittle initially. George Kittle only played 44% of the dropbacks in this game.
3:49I think that's totally fine here. Debo Samuel's screen game and then Brock Purdy at the right moments was buying some time
3:55stepping into throws or scramble the ground for a first down.
3:58So they played energized. Everyone seemed to be going.
4:01Christian McCaffrey, that was probably the most burst I've seen him.
4:04Obviously, that would be a big storyline here. But just in general, the 49ers, I was like, this might be one of
4:10the slowest offenses in the NFL this year. And then tonight, they looked lightning quick.
4:15It's a great point. Yeah, they looked fast. They looked explosive.
4:18Not the team that I thought would look fast and explosive.
4:21If you were just saying like, hey, L.A. Rams, San Francisco 49ers in the year 2026 on a neutral site or whatever,
4:27I would have expected to say the Rams were the faster, more explosive team.
4:31That was definitely not the case tonight. And, you know, on the other side of the ball for the Niners, they did
4:38kind of get pushed around up front. Like I thought the best thing that the Rams did all night was their offensive
4:44line was really moving people in the run game.
4:46But other than that, this was a team that was flying around, certainly on offense.
4:51Good note on George Kittle. I would expect that to go up the route percentage over the course of time.
4:56But, you know, it's just like the hundredth reminder about football players that, yes, the goal is not be active in week one.
5:03The goal is be yourself sooner than later. But I don't know how sooner or later that will be for George Kittle.
5:09Yeah, I think just the fact that he was out there, I think is a win.
5:14But I think that I'm at the point with George Kittle.
5:17And I think we all, everyone at Yahoo ranked him somewhere in like around the 15 to 18 range coming into this week.
5:24I think you kind of just have to park him there until he's, you know, 75, 80 percent of the routes.
5:30I think that could take like a month or so.
5:33This is a big win for the 49ers. Obviously, the tiebreakers and all this stuff for the division, like this is a very important game.
5:40And then hopefully they're going to kind of slow play this.
5:43And then by the end of the season, George Kittle looks like himself.
5:47But I think that this could take a couple of weeks here.
5:50And in the meantime, Christian McCaffrey spammed underneath and Mike Evans, I thought, had an awesome game.
5:55It wasn't even just the touchdowns. Like you talked about some of these out outbreakers with Mike Evans.
6:00I thought that he looked pretty, pretty, pretty quick.
6:03Yeah, Mike Evans was looking great getting separation at the top of the routes.
6:07And I mean, the touchdown that he had and even some of the receptions on the outbreakers, it's like I think I texted this to the producers.
6:14I feel like Mike Evans is going to be able to do that until he's 40 years old.
6:19Obviously, he's not going to play football until he's 40 years old.
6:23But what's that? It's just being bigger and having longer arms than everybody else.
6:27That's still a pretty cool thing for Mike Evans here.
6:30So I said this. And obviously, if you're listening to the audio version of this, you're going to hear me say this
6:36to Josh later on in the show as we were handling some lineup questions.
6:40And somebody asked something about Jeremiah Love versus Mike Evans.
6:43I'm like, you know, it's tough to play. It's tough to play the wide receiver over the running back in the flex.
6:49I get that. But if you drafted Mike Evans and you weren't starting him in this game, what was the point of drafting Mike Evans?
6:56Like this is the healthiest he's going to be.
6:59I mean, hopefully I'm wrong about that. Hopefully he's healthy for all 17 games and the whole deal.
7:04But this is the healthiest, freshest he's going to be.
7:07Barely practiced in training camp, which he said was part of the deal.
7:11And, you know, I got to say, looked pretty good doing it.
7:14And the other surprising part of this, Hayden, was that it wasn't just big X receiver routes on the outside.
7:20They were getting him in the slot on some of these quick out routes you mentioned, some quick slants as well.
7:26I thought that was really encouraging for Mike. And it was kind of Demarcus Robinson who was more of that vertical X receiver presence in this game.
7:34And that kind of difference right there where he's scribbling.
7:36And then when scribbling leaves, then it's Demarcus Robinson.
7:39And maybe that's the injury that kind of unlocks Mike Evans not having more of that static role.
7:44And maybe he kicks inside, has a little more creativity because I think that's what scribbling was going to offer.
7:50And obviously Demarcus Robinson does what he did with the Rams, which is every fifth week scores a long touchdown on a big post route.
7:57Obviously, the quarters beater over the top. So I'm curious about Demarcus Robinson.
8:01Like I'm assuming scribbling is going to be out for quite a while here getting carded off.
8:06And we don't know if it's an Achilles or an ankle injury.
8:09I hope it was an ankle injury because he left with an ankle injury.
8:13I thought he kind of rolled it. Hopefully, it's not the Achilles.
8:16But when your cleat is off, you're getting carded away.
8:19You assume that this is going to be an IR stint for Deshaun Stribbling.
8:23Demarcus Robinson and Debo Samuel, like these guys are going to be like interesting enough for fantasy purposes as Kittle kind of gets ramped up.
8:30And even Mike Evans was not playing every single snap in this game.
8:34So I think Debo Samuel obviously stock up 48 yards and a touchdown.
8:38I think that in the deepest leagues, I do think that Demarcus Robinson could end up being a little bit frisky.
8:44Yeah, the stribbling one is tough. And I know it's like not much of a consolation prize for folks who started stribbling right away.
8:51He did lead the team in snaps at the wide receiver position when he left.
8:55It was very clear he was going to be a big part of this operation.
8:59Obviously, he didn't have any production in this game, which is what all people care about in fantasy football.
9:05So it is what it is. It's really unfortunate.
9:07And yeah, as we're taping this right now, we're live at 1133 Eastern.
9:11We don't have an update on what the injury was.
9:14I mean, they called it an ankle injury. He did, as you say, he rolled it.
9:19It was like two non-contact plays essentially for stribbling.
9:21And the second one looked pretty troubling. That looked calf to me, but I'm just a goofball at home, not a doctor.
9:27Well, I will say that for the 49ers, I think part of the problem with their injuries, it's like obviously it's not just a substation.
9:35We're in Australia here, but they do rush some players back from injuries.
9:38And like this was one where stribbling was like literally just being evaluated.
9:42And then they rushed him back out there and he was out there for just I believe it was just a couple plays before the non-contact.
9:49So yeah, I mean, hopefully if they set back to that ankle injury and this, you know, this is some version of
9:56an ankle sprain, but man, you just don't know.
9:58Okay. So I think we all expected to come out of this game talking about that day to rookie drafted for the San Francisco 49ers.
10:05But the biggest fantasy football story coming out of this game, we've buried the lead here is Kalen Black in what was
10:12essentially a split with Christian McCaffrey in this game, which I don't know that anybody projected going into it.
10:17But I certainly don't think that was, you know, kind of what we expected when if you took Christian McCaffrey like very early in your fantasy drafts.
10:25But 14 carries for Kalen Black, 10 carries for Christian McCaffrey, dead 50-50 split in terms of the running back touches.
10:31If you look at routes run, it was McCaffrey, 56% of the routes, 36% for Kalen Black, 10 routes here to 18 as Michael F.
10:38Florio is showing us on the screen. So again, Hayden, I don't think that was projected by anybody, but am I off
10:44base and thinking this is actually completely logical and 100% makes sense for this team to do?
10:49Well, back in May, Shanahan straight up said, I do not want McCaffrey to be used that way.
10:54And I think everyone at the time was like, and I think this is fair is what you always say that it's not going to happen.
11:02Easier said than done. And then in the entire training camp, and then I love the preseason, Kalen Black has just been
11:08talked about as somebody that's like a real player.
11:11And I know that he wasn't everyone's favorites because he's an older player and he wasn't that productive, but his tape was
11:17good in college and they draft him in the third round.
11:20And guess what? Third round running backs typically play a little bit.
11:24And guess what? Watching the second half of those Christian McCaffrey runs out of halftime.
11:28He seemed pissed off and he was actually moving the ball on the ground.
11:32And I think it was his first game since like 2013, where he actually averaged over 6.8 yards per carry on 10 plus carries like that.
11:39He has never done that in years. And Christian McCaffrey like looked a little bit better there.
11:44I think for the fantasy purposes, I think while this is not great, obviously it would be better if he just ran
11:51the ball those 14 times that Kalen Black ran it.
11:53But he still caught a ton of passes. I'm guessing at the goal line it more times than not will still be
12:00Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers just hung. What is it?
12:0327 points on the defense that everyone kind of believes could be a top three defense in the NFL.
12:08I thought the offensive line looked pretty dang good here against a formidable front.
12:12So if the 49ers who I think I was at least saying like maybe they're gonna be closer to the 10th best
12:18offense in the NFL because there's too many question marks in the skill group.
12:22If they're gonna be back to first, second, third, even in this kind of weird rotation, I still think that Christian McCaffrey could be a first round player.
12:30I think I agree with your conclusion there on that.
12:33And yeah, I linked to your tweet in the piece that I'm writing because I love content so much.
12:39I love to do podcasts and I love to write too.
12:42I just absolutely love it. I linked to your tweet that you had in May where you had this quote from Kyle
12:48Shanahan said, quote, I want him to have more juice referencing Christian McCaffrey.
12:52I want him to be fresher. He doesn't have to take that beating when it's unnecessary.
12:56I'm hoping we can have some other guys step up more this year so you don't feel like you need him on
13:03the field every play and I'm totally with you that I understand if people are skeptical of that because Kyle Shanahan, it's
13:09like he can't quit mashing the McCaffrey button over and over again.
13:12And I understand it because McCaffrey, like since he has arrived in 2022 to the San Francisco 49ers, he just brings everything to life.
13:19What he does as a receiver, how he can run from every concept, like his gravity as a player just opens things up for all these other guys.
13:27So I get it why, you know, Kyle Shanahan play caller who obviously thinks very highly of his scheme as he should
13:34just like, I can't not have this guy on the football field because he quite literally takes my playbook from 98th percentile to 99th.
13:40And that last step really matters quite a bit.
13:43That being said, I have not been able to get it out of my head that McCaffrey described the 2025 football season
13:49as the hardest year of his life. And it wasn't just all about football, you know, it was about other stuff, but
13:56it also makes a lot of sense that he's coming off 480 intended touches last year.
14:00And I've quoted this stat a lot, 480 intended touches last year, regular season playoffs combined.
14:05That is the fourth most for a running back in a single season since the year 2000.
14:10And if you look at the list and again, I linked to this in the piece that's going to be up tomorrow morning.
14:16The other guys at the top, like it's Barkley in 2024, but the rest of them are like 2014 DeMarco Murray, Eddie
14:22George in 2000, Arian Foster 2012, Larry Johnson 2006, Edron James 2000.
14:26I'm on green 2003. I mean, this is like, doesn't happen in the modern NFL anymore.
14:30And you felt it from an efficiency standpoint too, with McCaffrey, like you mentioned the yards per carry, but last year among
14:3733 running backs and had 150 carries on the year, he was 28th in yards after contact per rush.
14:42He was 23rd in EPA per rush and a percentage of carries that went for 10 plus yards, 28th out of 33 backs.
14:49Like there wasn't a lot of juice there. So getting a guy in Kalen Black who I really warmed up to the
14:55idea of Kalen Black being this exact guy when, you know, shout out to James code who does some running back charting for us at reception perception.
15:03He described Kalen Black as quote, a viable workman like player who quote, when you need to, when you go through the
15:09charting, all he does is give you positive plays.
15:12Like not a lot of flash, not a lot of big plays, but just keeps the ball churning.
15:17And I mean, that's exactly what this guy was tonight.
15:20Right. So I think we're going to continue. I don't know if we'll see this exact split going forward, but shoot, especially
15:26in a week one game halfway across the fricking world.
15:29And you got a long season ahead of you where you want to go to the playoffs and win the Superbowl and the whole deal.
15:36Like I'm advising people to not panic about this coming out of week one because it was logical.
15:41It was sensible, sensible. And even if it continues, like we want McCaffrey here for a long time, not just a good
15:47time in the first game of the season. Yeah.
15:50I mean, this would prevent McCaffrey from having one of those like legendary seasons because I don't think that I'm going to
15:56be ranking him outside like the top 10 running backs next, uh, next week here.
16:01I mean, eight targets like really hard to, to, to come by.
16:04And this team is going to be projected for a bunch of points based off how they looked in this game.
16:10I would put, uh, Caitlin black is like, he's starting to look a little Blake Coromy.
16:15I was looking at exactly what the split was.
16:17The rotation was, uh, on third downs, obviously Christian McCaffrey, I think it was like 10 of 12 snaps there.
16:23That makes sense. But on first and second down, it was a near split.
16:27And that's kind of what Blake Coromy and Kyron Williams have been doing where what either in long distances or they're trailing
16:33Kyron Williams will play a little bit more, but for the most part, they were going drive by drive.
16:39That's what they did today. And then Caitlin black and Christian McCaffrey, they might be pretty even in carries this year.
16:45And then obviously Christian McCaffrey will have literally a hundred more targets than he will.
16:49But if CMC goes down, like how confident are we that Caitlin black would be an RV one or somewhere near that in fantasy?
16:56I would already feel pretty confident in that. So I think like him versus tank Bigsby, him versus, uh, almost every other
17:02handcuff in, uh, in fantasy right now. I think that he would be at the very top of the list.
17:08He's like somebody, uh, maybe I wouldn't start him necessarily next week, but he would be close to it.
17:13And I think that he's going to be someone that we have to be very aggressive on the waiver wire for.
17:19Yeah. This is why, uh, I put him in 144th overall, like just at the end of like, right at the end
17:26of my top one 50 from a fantasy draft standpoint, cause he was looking like one of those guys.
17:31I mean, like if Amari and Hampton went down, like Keaton Mitchell wouldn't become that guy, you know, but like Caitlin black
17:37would, if you're looking at splitting hair for those late round running backs, do you know, but it's okay.
17:43Just, just brass tacks perspective, brass task perspective here with Chris McCaffrey.
17:46He touched the ball or he had 18 opportunities, targets, rush attempts tonight.
17:50He had 88 yards from scrimmage and I'm with you not ranking him outside the top 10 running guys.
17:55Do you know who the 49ers play in week two and week three?
17:59I have no idea. The Miami dolphins and the Arizona Cardinals.
18:02So I'm going to go ahead and say, actually, we're ranking Christian McCaffrey in the top five.
18:07Yeah. My, my concern level on this, if we're doing some early panic meter is that like no panic.
18:13I mean, maybe if you're hoping that he has that legendary season, his range of outcomes, perhaps not, but regardless, I really
18:19don't see a lot of reason to panic for the McCaffrey stuff.
18:22And again, because I think this is a logical thing for him to not get grounded in the dust at 30 years
18:29old with a bazillion carries and everything on his resume.
18:31Let's, let's flip it to the other side here.
18:34Uh, what are your notes on the LA Rams?
18:37And again, a very disappointing loss that I do think has to have some context because of the sleepy time nature of the game.
18:43But just overall, what are your notes on this team?
18:46Matthew Stafford, a lot more passes kind of just directly to 49ers players.
18:50Not all of them were intercepted, but there was definitely a couple interceptable passes along the way.
18:55It seemed like the 49ers knew that these dig routes were coming and they were all over it.
19:00There was like one where it's a defense pass interference.
19:03Puka did have a nice completion or two over the middle, but it did seem like the 49ers like went out of their way to stop that.
19:11Uh, in particular, I thought the ground game for the Rams was decent, but like last year it was like the best
19:17success rate to running back carries of the decade.
19:19It did not feel quite as good. I thought the offensive line wasn't quite as potent.
19:24I think that was maybe the biggest takeaway for me, because if you were listening to the 49ers coverage going into this,
19:30they had no idea what they're going to get out of Nick Bosa.
19:34Cause he's like barely coming off of his injuries.
19:37He's like, so like rehabbing through it. Uh, they don't have Michael Williams.
19:40They just lost a defensive tackle. Like they were like rotating some bodies out there and they were still able to get some pressure on Matthew Stafford.
19:48So, uh, last year the Rams offensive line was awesome.
19:51This game didn't feel quite as good. And obviously that has ripple effects.
19:55They can't pick up a bunch of explosives on the ground, which they did not in this game.
20:00Uh, it's just going to make everything feel a little bit tighter.
20:03Niners defense wise. Uh, this was Raheem Morris's first game and obviously got to go back and like watch the tape to
20:10see what they did from a coverage standpoint, but there were parts of the game, especially early on where it just like, Oh yeah, you know what?
20:17Having Fred Warner, uh, makes quite a big difference.
20:20Having Bosa back makes quite a big difference. And those two guys just, you know, barely were a part of the proceedings
20:26last year, especially towards the end of the season when this defense kind of completely fell apart.
20:31So, um, this is one of those times where you got to remember like last season's data does not matter when you
20:37get two real big difference makers back. And I certainly think from the coverage standpoint, like you mentioned just shutting down those dig routes and everything.
20:45When you have a linebacker like Fred Warner, that's going to make a big difference there.
20:49Also throughout Osa Diggie Zua, their new defensive tackle, he had an awesome game in this one.
20:54And like, that's like another little cherry on top piece at the 49ers defensive line did not have last year.
21:00So like, this was like huge, I mean, obviously huge stock up for the 49ers, but I think in like more, you
21:06know, repeatable ways, like if they're actually gonna get some pressure this year up front, like that's going to change their entire defense there.
21:13And I think for, uh, some of the biggest question marks we had for like the Rams fantasy players, it was still
21:19the drive by drive rotation between, uh, Kyron and Blake, Blake Coram at the first, uh, uh, drive out of halftime.
21:25It does go back to Kyron Williams, obviously Kyron Williams, uh, scores the goal line touchdown, but that could be Blake Coram.
21:32If it was his drive as well, uh, Kyron's going to play a little bit more in passing situations when they're trailing.
21:38But for the most part, it was kind of at the same drive by drive rotation from last year.
21:43And hopefully the Rams look a lot better because if it is that same drive by drive rotation and there's averaging, let's
21:50say 26 points a game instead of 30 points a game, like those are the things that kind of matter for Kyron,
21:56maybe being more of an RB two than an RB one, not, not hitting the full panic meter yet.
22:01I just because you said like, this is, you know, they chose to fly out there the, the, the day of, um,
22:08but I do think it's like something to monitor.
22:10Yeah, definitely something to monitor there. And, you know, it kind of is like the worst outcome for both guys because, you
22:17know, there's no, there doesn't appear to be a big change for Blake Coram.
22:21Like there was talk out of training camp that, oh, they might get Coram more involved and, you know, just really maybe
22:27make this more of a dead even split. And again, stats wise is pretty close in the ground game, but a dead
22:33even split, you know, is it's, it's this Blake Coram time to get more explosive plays there.
22:38Uh, maybe that wasn't the case necessarily. I love how you described Terrence Ferguson in the outline.
22:43Um, Terrence Ferguson is a thing, but also isn't a thing, uh, explained for the people there.
22:48Well, he, at one point was playing like 75% of the routes that kind of scaled that back at the end off
22:54to go watch the game, uh, again tomorrow and figure out exactly why that was happening.
22:59And then his one target was, I think it was that big downfield shot.
23:03I think like on a fourth down situation where, you know, like maybe Terrence Ferguson shouldn't be in the two, two out
23:09role, uh, two, two out well role is kind of fun, but like maybe that's like, you know, overthinking it kind of like the, the flight issue here.
23:17Um, he, he ran around like half the dropbacks.
23:20That's probably not enough to like really care about it.
23:22It's still Colby Parkinson out there more times than not.
23:25And then obviously Davis Allen, Allen left, Tyler Higbee was out there for, for a moment.
23:30Um, so it wasn't like exactly the Terrence Ferguson, uh, game we were hoping for, but he is playing more than he did last year.
23:37Yeah. There was a couple of leagues where I was rostering Terrence Ferguson through this game just to see what happened.
23:43And in Yahoo, you can drop players even after they play in the early games, uh, probably going to go ahead and
23:49like drop Terrence Ferguson for a defense or something like that.
23:52You know, just was kind of doing the exploratory things good enough to see from a role standpoint.
23:58Uh, maybe it's coming down the stretch, but yeah, again, I don't want to take many big sweeping takeaways from the Rams
24:04offense just because this was always going to be regardless of outcome, a little bit of a bizarre game for them.
24:10Uh, but regardless, you know, it, I understand people coming out of this game being like, that's the Superbowl favorite.
24:16That was like plus five 50 to win the Superbowl.
24:18That was this team. Uh, I understand the reactions there.
24:21Uh, but you know, we'll see what this team looks like once we actually get back into the, into their own country
24:28and we're not, you know, taking 15 hour flights, five seconds before the game starts.
24:32Any other, uh, takeaways you want to get off here about the Rams?
24:36Uh, at the goal line, there's a couple of sequences where Pukinaku was out there as the lone receiver.
24:41Um, that wasn't always the case last year. Obviously Devante Adams had all those gold line touchdowns.
24:46I think he averaged like, uh, like two yards per, uh, um, perception in the red zone last year.
24:51Cause like so many of his catches were like literally at the goal line.
24:55Um, but with Puka, uh, if he's going to be getting some more goal line, uh, looks and he got tackled at
25:02the goal line, like that's how Pukinaku could go to like the absolute moon and fantasy.
25:06So, uh, I would say slight stock down on Devante Adams, uh, because he's kind of, maybe he's going to be losing that role.
25:13At least it'd be closer to 50, 50 rather than like Devante Adams.
25:17It was like a two for one special, uh, in favor of him last year in that area.
25:22And, uh, I didn't see that tonight. Yeah. That's definitely something to keep your eye on because if he loses that, then
25:28I'm like, what's the, what's the upside for Devante Adams fantasy football.
25:32And again, another thing, it's kind of tough to get out of your head is the fact that they were super willing
25:38to trade Devante Adams before they backed out of the AJ Brown trade, uh, sweepstakes because of the medicals.
25:43They're also, it's still weird again, that they added no other playmakers beyond that.
25:47That's again, another thing that's going to be a little difficult.
25:51Well, they traded for two, two out. Well though, when you know, the dolphins were ready to cut him.
25:56So we'll, maybe we'll see two, two out. Well, on the two, two out.
26:00Well roll, uh, next week starting that. So that's at least something on my radar when we're talking about this team being everybody's clear cut favorite.
26:08Do they really have a counter punch beyond Puka Nakua in the passing game?
26:12I would say I don't come out of week one feeling like positive, uh, about that one positive note though, to give
26:18off before we leave Hayden, uh, is that Kyle Shanahan said that Dijon Stribbling had an injured ankle added that the rookies Achilles was intact.
26:25So, and the Achilles is something that they can test for right away, uh, on, on game day.
26:30They can test that there. So that does make you feel better that, you know, the season might not be over for
26:36Dijon Stribbling, but I mean, we're dealing with an AJ Brown high ankle sprain right now where it's the, you know, it's
26:43a three as Nate keeps saying, it's an, it's a, it's a six week injury.
26:47You can say, oh, it's a three week, this, that, and the other, like this guy's not going to be the same
26:53until six weeks from the moment he has the high ankle sprain.
26:57I don't know if that's the injury for Stribbling, but if it is, uh, it is just a real bummer for him
27:03to get off to this time to start in his rookie season.
27:06And if you look at my ankle, I had high ankle sprain and my ankle is still not the same out there.
27:13So it's, uh, I, I agree. I don't like when wide receivers return too early from these high ankle sprains.
27:18Um, so hopefully that's all it is. There's no fracture or anything like that, but, uh, no torn Achilles.
27:24The strip club will come back at some point.
27:26This has anyone checked on Josh. Have you, have you checked on Josh?
27:30No, I figured he was in a bad place and we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll regroup tomorrow.
27:35That's probably for the best. I think that's the respectful thing to do.
27:39All right. So when we've got Hayden, uh, comparing his high ankle sprain to NFL players, we had producer Colin talking about,
27:45you know, how tired he is during his softball games before we got on here.
27:49I think that's a good sign that the nightcap, uh, is over.
27:53Uh, so we're going to call it for this one.
27:55Really fun Thursday night game here between the Niners and the Rams.
27:59For those watching us on YouTube. Thanks for tuning in for those listening on audio.
28:03Josh Norris joins me for the rest of the show right after this quick break.
28:07What's going on everyone. I'm Matt Harmon. Welcome to the Yahoo fantasy forecast presented by Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL all season long.
28:15Toyota is celebrating the passion traditions and unforgettable moments that make football America's obsession from fantasy football to every kickoff rivalry and Sunday ritual.
28:22And Oh baby, it's a hell of a day to talk ball because we are, we're not on the precipice of week one.
28:28We are in the middle of week one. We had a game last night.
28:32We've got a game tonight, which if you're listening to this on the audio version, uh, you've already got the results of that game.
28:39But if you're joining us live on YouTube right now, which we love the folks who join us live on YouTube, we've
28:45got a ton of games to talk about that are happening this weekend and joining me to do just that, to talk a little ball.
28:53It is my good friend, Josh Norris. Josh, what's going on, buddy?
28:56First of what? 17 shows here every Thursday with you, Matt, uh, this is going to be the best one.
29:02And the next week will be better. And the next week will be better.
29:06So, uh, I'm excited to do this with you.
29:08Spoken like a real football coach there. We're just going to keep getting better and better.
29:13You know, we're going to find our identity as the, as the, uh, as the season goes on my life, Matt.
29:19Yeah. I mean, your calves at the Buffalo live event would say that that is true.
29:24I mean, you know, Josh is in the best shape of his life.
29:27We're going to play fast. We're going to be multiple.
29:30That's what this preview show is all about personnel.
29:33We're by December. We probably will be heavy personnel.
29:35Who knows? Uh, we'll, we'll see about that. Okay.
29:38Here is the structure of the show. It's going to look pretty similar to the version of what we did last year
29:44with Boone, but now we're subbing in Josh here.
29:47So it's going to be Josh's six pack of fantasy questions.
29:50That's going to be our first couple of segments.
29:52Then we will get into my three games that no one cares about, but I care about them and I'm going to
29:59make you guys care about them too. From a fantasy football perspective, then we're going to wrap it up every single week
30:05with the Toyota fantasy hotline, taking your questions on what to do with your lineups, specific bespoke questions every single week.
30:11So without further ado, let's get into Josh's six pack of fantasy questions.
30:15Just like last year, a little pop top. Yeah.
30:17Makes you want to talk some ball. Doesn't it?
30:20Josh makes you want to talk some freaking football here.
30:23I didn't know that that was coming. My question is what's in the blue drink, Matt?
30:27I mean, that's not a, my creation. That's of, of Collins creation, the blue drink.
30:32It's a mystery. We're going to find out what it is.
30:35Always a good idea. Just definitely take a drink that you don't know what's in there.
30:39Hey, we don't know what we're going to get from the week one slate here, Josh, but let's try to help the people find out.
30:47What's your first question heading into the full week one slate?
30:50So overall, these first three questions are like very team or player specific.
30:53And then we'll do the second trio of questions as almost more generic.
30:57That could be multiple answers here. So the first one here, Matt is can the Raiders even function now without Brock Bowers?
31:03And I ask this because here in week one is the easiest Raiders opponent for the opening 11 weeks against the Miami Dolphins.
31:10They are three and a half point favorites still, still here at home.
31:14And there's many layers of this. Number one, Clint Kubiak coming over from Seattle to Las Vegas.
31:19And we can all point to Brock Bowers being the focal point of what his passing attack and really receiving attack was
31:25going to be a la JSN last year. And Matt, these numbers are outrageous that JSN accounted for 36.6% of his team's
31:31receptions last year, which was only better, better, I should say, by Brandon Marshall in 2012 and Steve Smith in 2005.
31:37According to Rich Rebar, he accounted for 44% of his team's receiving yards.
31:41That's the fourth highest rate since 1990. So Matt, at least for these first two games, maybe even game three and game
31:47four, who the heck is going to account for that receiving production in Clint Kubiak's offense without Brock Bowers?
31:53My guess is it will not be nearly that concentrated between any of these fellows that are going to have to step
31:59up in the wake of the Brock Bowers injury.
32:01Man, it is crazy. That's like some old school stuff that JSN was doing last year in terms of being the one,
32:08the metronome of the passing game, dominating all of the opportunity and all the results.
32:12Yeah, I don't think anybody here is equipped to do that with the Las Vegas Raiders.
32:17Spoiler alert for the Nobody's Games of the Week segment.
32:19This game is going to come up once again.
32:22Okay. So we'll maybe mostly, I mean, how could it not, by the way?
32:26It was just like the most screaming, obvious one.
32:29So I won't talk too much on the Dolphin side of things.
32:32We'll save that for that segment here. But yeah, I mean, this is you put this really well where this might be
32:38the most winnable game on the Las Vegas Raiders schedule all season long.
32:42And man, that Dolphin secondary, Josh, is a travesty.
32:45You'd think that there can be some fantasy value hidden in here.
32:48But this is one of those injuries that there's not just an immediate replacement, right?
32:52Like nobody's going to come in here and play the Brock Bowers role.
32:56That doesn't exist within the offense. That is designed specifically for a unique player like a Brock Bowers.
33:01That being said, I actually kind of feel like the answer here will be they just play a lot more 11 personnel than they were planning on.
33:09Like the guys we're showing on the screen here right now.
33:12I mean, this might be Jack Besh's like highest route percentage of the entire year.
33:16I mean, I wanted to get in your good side because the answer truly might be Jack Besh.
33:22I mean, if you go back, everyone focused on his last couple years at TCU.
33:26But if you went back and watch his first year at LSU, he was kind of that move Joker tight end stuff,
33:32you know, and if Michael Mayer was going to be the focal point of the inline tight end stuff and you now
33:38had Brock Bowers, who was going to play a majority of the snaps in the slot or even some stuff out wide or even two tight end sets.
33:46I mean, that's not going to be Ian Thomas, right?
33:49So to me, this was the role that I was kind of hoping as a power slot ish.
33:55That Jack Besh would be drafted for. And we didn't see that at all during his rookie season.
34:00We didn't see that very much. I felt in the preseason outside that one game that Brock Bowers did not play.
34:06So, Matt, I don't want to get too in the weeds here on my first segment of my first show with you in season.
34:13But I felt like it was only right to bring up Jack Besh in that department.
34:17No, it is. And because obviously this is a Besh Bro podcast, but also, yeah, let's definitely talk about a player that
34:230.0% of human beings are going to start this week on Yahoo Fantasy.
34:27But I mean, it's but you're probably right from just a structural perspective.
34:31I do think Besh gets a good opportunity here because they are kind of analogous type talents.
34:36Honestly, as again, as a captured fan of Jack Besh's game, I hope he goes out there and has a nice game
34:42and forces them to sort of be open minded about how they can scheme this thing around because you just can't convince
34:48me that he's not one of their best 11 players on offense.
34:52I think he is or at least one of their best 12 players on offense, I should say.
34:57And I'll add that the majority of Jackson Smith and Jigba's receiving production last year came from heavier personnel look.
35:03So that would have been, you know, the funnel targets that we would have gotten with Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers on the field.
35:09Again, without Brock Bowers out there, I don't think, as you pointed out, they will want to live in this Michael Mayer, Ian Thomas world.
35:17So that is a change from Clint Kubiak in his brain all offseason constructing this offense to they're probably going to live now in 11 personnel.
35:24So doing that, and I understand like the injury happened last week or let's say he got the diagnosis of the surgery last week.
35:31And so we were just, you know, reunited with this information yesterday.
35:34But Matt, for us, maybe the timeline is a lot shorter than for them.
35:38But even building a game plan for the first two, three, four games out of thin air versus the last couple of
35:45months, I'm sure they're scrambling and getting some sleepless nights over there in the Las Vegas headquarters.
35:50No question. And it sounds like it might be a two week injury here for Bowers.
35:54That was kind of the report from this morning.
35:57So I don't expect to see him next week either.
36:00So they're going to have to have a plan here.
36:02I think before we move off this, because we've had our fun here with Jack.
36:07And look, it is definitely something I'm going to be monitoring for this offense this week.
36:11Like what we see from him. Can he earn more of a full season role?
36:16Because I think he does fit the offense well in some different ways here.
36:20I guess the two players we should talk about for, you know, the less sick pups than the sick pups who want to know about Jack.
36:27Jack Bess is Trey Tucker and Michael Mayer, because I do think from just a target perspective, they'll have some more opportunity.
36:33Those guys were probably going to be pretty heavily involved in the offense regardless.
36:37Just thoughts on Michael Mayer as like a punt play at tight end thoughts on Trey Tucker as a deep sleeper, a
36:44guy that is going to be, you know, again, involved in the offense runs some good vertical routes, which I can talk about here in a second.
36:51And obviously we'll be facing some questionable cornerbacks, shall we say?
36:54So with Michael Mayer, I think people had this wrong idea of him coming out of Notre Dame, that he was some
37:01baby grunk styling of a player in that Notre Dame in that final season built their entire passing attack around him.
37:07They were moving him around. They were getting him against the grain of offenses.
37:11They were manufacturing screens and touches for him also needed a very good job at that.
37:15So I wonder, Matt, if he now becomes the move player in this, like that is more of a possibility to me
37:22as well, because I think he has some of that in his bag and I think in any other offense.
37:27And we know he's gone through, you know, some stuff over the first couple of years of his career.
37:33But Michael Mayer has, you know, starting caliber traits in the NFL.
37:36And now he has the runway to, I think, show them off and probably the best environment that he's had so far in the league.
37:43Yeah, he had a pretty nifty move in the open field on his touchdown in the in the preseason this year.
37:49So I think we could see some more from him.
37:52I haven't ranked maybe like tight. I think like maybe tight end 13, honestly, heading into this week, which obviously, you know,
37:59it's not going to be like you got to start this guy.
38:02I said in the reaction to this news yesterday with Nate on the show that the best player that's like available in
38:08fewer than 70 percent of Yahoo leagues is like Juwan Johnson.
38:11Like he's the guy that would instantly be a great start.
38:15But I think Mayer might be my second favorite.
38:17And he's obviously much more widely available than a guy like Juwan Johnson was.
38:21So, yeah, definitely. We've seen some fantasy production from Michael Mayer when Brock Bowers has missed games.
38:26I don't mind him at all as a punt play and neither do like I mind Trey Tucker.
38:31If you're when one of these leagues that starts a bazillion wide receivers, which I am the Kings Classic League, you know,
38:37for that we drafted the Fantasy Football Expo, which, you know, we drafted it earlier than ever this year in July.
38:44So we've all had some injuries that we've had to face.
38:47And Trey Tucker is a guy because there's three starting flex spots, full point PPR.
38:51I'm starting Trey Tucker, at least in that league.
38:54That's the type of format you may have to be in to consider him.
38:58But we know what the deal is. Very boomer bust Josh, a vertical receiver against a bad secondary.
39:03But I will say this, going back and charting Trey Tucker for reception perception, his best routes are dig routes, post routes, nine routes.
39:10You know, I'm not saying he's going to be Jackson Smith and Jigba at all, but those are obviously the routes that
39:16JSN cooked on in the system last year. We've talked about this a lot, that Clint Kubiak, the last two offenses that
39:22he's taken control over, the New Orleans Saints and then the Seattle Seahawks, neither of those were expected to be among the
39:28most vertical downfield passing 15 plus yard pass catching offenses in the league.
39:32And yet, as soon as Clint Kubiak got his fingertips on them, that's exactly what they became.
39:37Right. And we can say the same thing now about the Raiders.
39:40And if anyone's going to benefit from that the most, it is going to be Trey Tucker.
39:45So we'll see if he can do it a third time here, you know, from the Saints to the Seahawks to obviously now the Raiders.
39:52But yeah, Trey Tucker is one of those players that after they gave Jalen Naylor this contract back in March or April,
39:59I thought, OK, well, that's going to be the player that they flow through with the outside breakers and all that type of stuff.
40:06But then every single beat writer, all training camp long, just kept saying Trey Tucker is the wide receiver one.
40:11He is the wide receiver one. And he actually might have to be the number one pass catcher now since it's so much in flux.
40:19Yeah. And in a weird way, Naylor and Tucker do complement each other well, because I think Tucker is better on those in breakers.
40:25And as you said, Naylor is better on the outbreaker.
40:28So it's not hopeless for the Raiders. There's definitely some things you can squint at here.
40:33But I think if it's going to come together well, it probably will be in this week for them because the schedule gets much more difficult after that.
40:41They go to Los Angeles in week two. They go to New Orleans in week three.
40:45They got the Chiefs. They got the Patriots on the schedule.
40:49I mean, it's brutal. The Rams doesn't really lighten up again until week eight with the New York Jets.
40:54So Kirk Cousins, if you're going to enjoy your time in the sun as the Raiders starting quarterback, this is the week to do it.
41:01We'll talk a little about the backfield when we get back to this game somehow later on in the show.
41:07But for now, Josh, let's get to your second question heading into this week.
41:11So what's the Packers plan for their backfield? I ask this for a number of reasons.
41:15The first, let's just stick to on the field with Josh Jacobs.
41:19He was sixth in carries inside of the 10 yard line last season.
41:23If you go back to 2024, he was first in the NFL in carries inside of the 10 yard line.
41:28That resulted in a combined 24 touchdowns, 24 on just those carries inside the 10 yard line.
41:33Guess what, Matt? Touchdowns matter a lot for us in fantasy football.
41:37In fact, they matter the most in fantasy football.
41:39So who gets that work, right? Is it going to be Marshawn Lloyd now who has seven career touches in the NFL
41:45and has been broken every single season? Is it Caleb Johnson who was sent to the shadow realm after one kickoff return
41:52at the Pittsburgh Steelers and was sent to this Green Bay Packers offense for, you know, a late round pick?
41:58Or maybe the answer, Matt, is do they just pass more often?
42:01So this is the Vikings that they're playing here in week one, a team that is notoriously difficult to run against.
42:07So I'm ready to make sweeping conclusions about what this Packers team is going to do for as long as Josh Jacobs is sidelined after week one.
42:15Interesting. I think I would advise you to not make sweeping conclusions coming out of this game here because I think those tongue in shape, of course.
42:22Yeah, I think this matchup is really difficult to get a handle on with the running backs because I mean, these are
42:29two teams obviously that play each other a lot.
42:31Brian Flores makes life. He makes life hell on like running backs who cannot pass protect.
42:36I mean, if you've watched Jameer Gibbs against this team over the last few years, like if you're going to lob one
42:42critique at Jameer Gibbs game, it's pass protection. And he put Jameer Gibbs into the blender at one point last year.
42:48I think that's I think that might be the game that got Johnny Morton like officially thrown to the curb as the
42:54play caller for the Lions last year. So I would be shocked, honestly, if Marshawn Lloyd is out there, you know, for a lot of snaps past protecting.
43:02I think we're going to see a ton of Chris Brooks in this game.
43:06And I ultimately think, Josh, that your point about them just passing the ball more.
43:11I think this could be a real high pass rate, overexpected high pass rate in general game for the Green Bay Packers
43:17because that's kind of what they want to do seemingly this season.
43:20I saw a really good quote from Mike Nuggets NFL, you know, a little coach speak account there.
43:26So today, Mike, God, Mike and Matt LaFleur. Now I'm going to just trip over that for like the rest of time here.
43:32But Matt LaFleur was essentially saying we got to keep our three main receivers on the field for as many snaps as
43:39possible, which I like that because that's been the way I've been approached this receiver room this year.
43:44And that's my guess is what we're going to see in week one is those guys on the field a lot.
43:50Yeah, just to repeat that quote, Matt LaFleur says, quote, I think really what it's going to be is it's going to
43:56be more opportunity for everybody in that room. Or should I say for our three main guys and we need to get
44:02them out there for as many plays as humanly possible.
44:05I don't think he's ever talked about main guys in that receiver room over the last few years, you know?
44:11So that was it like 12 months ago? He said no, that was more than 12 months ago.
44:16But he said, like the thought of a number one receiver makes me want to vomit or something like, yeah, this is
44:22a pretty big change of tone, Matt. Yeah. And then he says, I think all three of those guys are difference makers,
44:29but we need them out on the field for as many snaps as possible.
44:33So what that screams is 11 personnel versus maybe the 12 stuff that they ran last year.
44:37And we finally know the three wide receiver names, Matt.
44:40It's why I've been relentlessly drafting Christian Watson this summer.
44:43I thought I think gold was one of the most mispriced players, even if I didn't love his individual profile.
44:49And to your point, like the Vikings and how they sugar the A gaps and bring all these different looks from every single alignment.
44:56And that forces, you know, the running back to stay in with protection.
45:00I mean, Minnesota has allowed the fewest fancy points and yards per touch to running backs last season.
45:05And they've been even better than that in previous years.
45:08So if it is Chris Brooks out there, who is almost like a glorified fullback running back hybrid, that is terrible news for Marshawn Lloyd.
45:15But maybe things will get better here in week two.
45:18Yeah. Marshawn Lloyd feels like a destined player for the week one panic meter with Boone after this coming slate of games.
45:24And my advice would be like, again, listen to this segment here and see that this probably just is not going to
45:30be a big Marshawn Lloyd week, a big Marshawn Lloyd game.
45:33But that doesn't change any of the ideas that like, OK, he might go into week two and be the feature back
45:40for this team or whatever close to like a feature back type of player Marshawn Lloyd can even be in the NFL.
45:46Oh, man, I dropped so much fab in a dynasty league, Josh, where, you know, obviously, for the most part, there's never
45:52anybody on the waiver wire because Marshawn Lloyd is just like sitting out there on the waiver wire.
45:57And I dropped a ton of fab to get him.
46:00And now I have him and Jonathan Brooks on the same roster.
46:04So like maybe one, maybe one healthy body altogether on that one.
46:07But they play the Jets and then the Falcons in week two and week three.
46:11So definitely, I think some patience with Marshawn Lloyd might be advisable here.
46:15Yeah. Marshawn Lloyd, I'm just looking at consensus rankings is out there is running back 28.
46:20And that is ahead of Rico Dattle and Chuba Hubbard.
46:22I think I would just flat out put Chuba Hubbard ahead of Marshawn Lloyd if you guys are worried about your flex
46:29spots and considering that dynamic out there. Yeah, I mean, this I can't wait for this team.
46:34And the other part is, you know, the reworked, repatched Packers offensive line.
46:37I mean, look at this timing. God, the producers are on top of it.
46:41I know Jordan Morgan has been banged up a lot.
46:44I mean, it's it's pretty amazing that this Packers team, we think we know what they are.
46:49And yet here we are going through a whole bunch of changes and we might see like the biggest spike or one
46:55of the biggest spikes with them and like the Buffalo Bills in terms of going up to neutral pass rate and neutral drop back rate.
47:03Yes, it should be really interesting to see what this team looks like.
47:06I am. They're one of the bigger week one reveals.
47:09I'm very excited to see, which frankly is true for the offense on the other side of this, too.
47:15I'm excited to see what the Kyler Murray Minnesota Vikings situation finally looks like in real life.
47:19OK, question number three, Josh, this is another big reveal team I'm looking forward to seeing.
47:24So the Eagles were last in the NFL in terms of drives that went three and out last season.
47:29That is crazy to say out loud because I don't know if that talking point was discussed enough this summer.
47:35So the question is simple. How does Sean Manion's offense fix that?
47:39And Matt, you know, I've said it every single hour when we were together up in Buffalo, New York a couple weeks ago.
47:45This is one more reason why I say that Saquon Barkley is the most important player on the Eagles offense this year.
47:51They are four and a half point favorites against the commanders here in week one.
47:56Their best offensive line combination only played together 42% of the time last season.
48:00So getting Saquon back into gear like he was in 2024, not only is he going to reel off those explosives, but
48:06if you just give him the line of scrimmage bat, he gets you 6.6 yards per carry last season.
48:12And that's exactly what the goal is here. And that's exactly what will lead to fewer and many, many fewer three and outs in 2026.
48:19Yeah. Can we fly that three and out chart one more time on the screen here?
48:23It's crazy. It's insane. As Josh is eluding, 29% three and out rate for the Philadelphia Eagles last year.
48:29They're just ahead of, or I should say below, if you're talking about good versus bad, just below the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns.
48:36Broncos down there too. Broncos down there too. And then you got the Steelers and the Jets.
48:40Yeah. That's the company that the Eagles offense kept last year.
48:44It was not a fun watch at all last season for the Philadelphia Eagles at any point.
48:48So, I mean, I really wonder just the buzz on Sean Mannion that you hear out of the Eagles, you know, just
48:55kind of camp right now and everything is really, really strong, that he has just his pulse on what teams are doing
49:01right now, both from just like a formation from like a intense standpoint, but also like the strategy part of the game.
49:07So man, if he comes out in week one and looks like one of these wonder kid play callers, there's a lot
49:14to be excited about in this offense, especially again, because the opening slate is really, really is cushy for this entire team.
49:20And we have seen that the wonder kid play caller, either they get a head coaching job if they do a great
49:26job with the Eagles or they get fired after one season, right?
49:30It's the Shane Sykin, Kellen Moore team, especially. Yeah, correct.
49:32Versus the other guys that we don't have to mention.
49:35And now they're off into the distance. Matt, for some reason yesterday, I like packaged a couple words on Twitter and it
49:42was Josh Norris and then having fun just because I was trying to find a previous tweet.
49:47But then this one from the Eagles from September of last year, it says, quote, at halftime, Eagles have 34 total yards,
49:53negative one passing yards over six on third downs and one push push touchdown.
49:57And they're down 19 to seven at halftime. So like I understand everyone last year said as the season goes along, the
50:03Eagles are going to figure it out. They're too talented and blah, blah, blah.
50:07Well, they never did. Right. They never did. And so they made all these changes this offseason.
50:12And Matt, if they don't fix it in week one, you know, Philadelphia morning radio there on on Monday is going to be quite interesting.
50:19But I think they will. I'm with you. I think what Sean Maynard is going to bring in in terms of more
50:25under center work isn't only going to help the passing game.
50:29It's also going to help the rushing game in terms of creating more angles to attack with their best player in Saquon Barkley.
50:35Yeah, I mean, Saquon is going to be obviously a top ranked back.
50:39The commanders week one matchup to like this could be just a monster week for Saquon because I look on the other
50:45side of the ball, Josh, and you know, Nate and I kind of alluded to this yesterday.
50:50We talked about on 301 today. I think they're just going to crush the commanders offense like this defense here.
50:56They're going to be in positive game script for just the vast majority of this game.
51:00I cannot imagine like on the inverse of this and maybe I'm being hypocritical because I'm saying, you know, Sean, man, you
51:07can come out here and get off to a nice start.
51:10I do ultimately think it'll go a little bit like fast start slow down a little bit.
51:15Maybe pick back up at the end of the season for Sean Mannion, mostly just because the schedule and the way it looks on paper right now.
51:22But I think about it on the other side here.
51:25David Blau, 31 year old, promoted from the assistant quarterback coach spot to now running the whole show with less of a
51:32veteran laden offensive line, less of, you know, a quarterback obviously is adjusting.
51:35Jalen Hurts is adjusting to, but adjusting to, you know, kind of a new style here.
51:40And they got to go against Vic Fangio's defense on the other side while the Eagles are going against Dan Quinn's kind of remade unit.
51:47Yeah. And I'll bring up Dan Quinn's remade unit.
51:50I mean, if you just go look at the hour lads depth chart and I'm sure you guys have this too.
51:56It's Tim settle. It's clay von chase on Sonny styles is new.
51:59Oh, definitely. Always new. Russell Douglas is new. Nick crosses new.
52:02Ameek Robertson is new. They don't have Trey Amos out there because he's injured.
52:06Like sometimes it works when you bring in a whole bunch of new pieces like the Eagles defense did a couple of years ago.
52:13And then sometimes it takes a number of weeks and a number of weeks to, to get things right.
52:18And if the Eagles are on point, have a nice game plan that Jalen Hurts is comfortable in.
52:24And again, their offensive line plays the degree that it can, and they keep him upright.
52:28Then I'm excited for what this Eagles offense can do.
52:31Matt, I'll throw a question to you. Uh, let's say people, uh, are going through some chaos in a number of ways,
52:37uh, with their lineups, whether it be an injury that's already hit or just some uncertainty.
52:42Where are you at with like Don Tavian Wix is?
52:45Oh, brother. I knew this is where you're going.
52:47Let's, let's hear it. Let's talk about it. Uh, yeah.
52:50Devante Smith top 10 receiver for me this week.
52:53Don Tavian Wix is going to be in that range where, you know, again, you got to be a little bit desperate,
52:59but he is definitely someone that I think you can throw out here.
53:03He's going to run more routes than Makai Lemon in week one, like period.
53:07Great end of story. I'd, I'd be shocked if that did not happen.
53:11They're excited about him. They, the, not just obviously Sean Mannion, who was part of the coaching staff with Wix last year,
53:17the front office signs him to a contract extension.
53:19I know there's a lot of other people that are excited about Wix with this team.
53:24And, you know, something that I've talked about with this offense is they are kind of getting Jalen hurts comfortable in a new system.
53:31Everybody focuses on the, Oh, well, he doesn't throw over the middle of the field.
53:35He doesn't throw over the middle of the field on and on and on it goes.
53:40But Josh, a lot of what they did really well last year in green base, specifically with Dontavian Wix was they would
53:46like motion him from one side of the field into the slot in a 12 personnel look and then just run out
53:52cuts and sale concepts off play action. I think that's what we're seeing here with Wix who look, I know everybody makes
53:59fun of the separation stuff, but he can't catch the football and whatever.
54:02And I thought at times he actually kind of got a little bit overrated as a separator during his run with the
54:09green Bay Packers, but he's a, he is a good route runner.
54:12And some of his best routes to me were these out cuts.
54:15And I think that's a part of what we're going to do to get Jalen hurts comfortable.
54:20So I can see him piling up some good production in week one.
54:24So, like I said, got to be desperate from a fantasy standpoint, I guess, but I'm, I'm cautiously optimistic about Wix in the early portion of the season.
54:32Love that. And again, if they get the running game going, that changes the math in the back end, you know, that's
54:38going to convert some single high looks to bring someone else in the box.
54:42And then we get, you know, Devante Smith in isolation, Dontavian Wix in isolation.
54:46And Matt, I love myself a good, you know, post hype sleeper, because if we didn't get, you know, the instant gratification
54:53of a player, once they got hyped up all summer long, then the fancy community kind of hates them.
54:58I would love it if Dontavian Wix has like a nice four or five, six game stretch to open the season.
55:04It's all I'm asking for. At some point this summer, I know I tweeted his during August when he was getting some good reviews from training camp.
55:12I know I tweeted his rookie year reception perception charts.
55:15Like, when is it safe? When's it a safe space to start doing this again?
55:19Look there and there's the, there's the, there's the tweet.
55:22Look at that. Perfect. Yeah. I kind, I'm going to, I'm cautiously saying that I think this is a safe space to start doing this again.
55:29As it's going to be the next superstar receiver.
55:32I don't know about that, but the other part about Wix beyond just the fact that he became this like meme player
55:38with the drops and everything, this guy can play all three receiver positions.
55:42He can move across the formation. That's actually really nice to have if he just ends up being the third receiver for
55:48the Philadelphia Eagles after Makai Lemon gets ramped up.
55:51So I do think that, you know, while you took to Twitter to make fun of all of us for picking the
55:57Cowboys to win the division, Josh, which, you know, very classy by you.
56:01I picked him to win a Superbowl pound. Okay.
56:03I'm, I'm, I'm bought in. Yeah. Very classy by you making fun of all your colleagues.
56:08That's nice. I do think things are pointing up for, I think things are pointing up for this Eagles team.
56:14I mean, Colin has just brainwashed all of you.
56:16I mean, it's, it's insane, Matt. I think it was a cry from help from you to have the Cowboys win that
56:23division, because if you didn't pick it, Colin would just be texting you.
56:26He'd be messaging you producer. Colin would just be in your grill all the time.
56:31So you only pick them to appease and silence him.
56:33Colin's not in my grill all the time anyways.
56:36Okay. Yeah. Yeah. You're right. Colin usually is leaving me alone on a day-to-day basis.
56:40Yeah. That, that, that is for sure. No, I picked it because I believe it.
56:45If you think it made me happy to pick the Cowboys to win the division, ultimately win the Superbowl and Dak Prescott to win MVP.
56:52If you think that made me happy, you don't know me at all, Josh.
56:56I mean, I just think it's insane that I was what?
56:59One of eight people. The only one of eight people to pick the Eagles to win this division and everyone else pick
57:05the Cowboys that, I mean, that shocked me. So I'm sure many people like you thought, oh, well, the Cowboys, no one's going to pick them.
57:13I'm going to be a bit different here. Correct.
57:15When I'm just going to go with the Eagles and be the one that's different, you know, pretty good logic there.
57:21Yeah. Yeah. I thought I was buying tickets to a, to a hipster band.
57:25I went to a stadium tour. I didn't realize that that was happening there, but you know what?
57:30It is what it is. All right. We're going to take our first quick break.
57:35We come back. We're running through more questions heading into week one.
57:38We'll get into that right after this. All right.
57:41We're back. We're continuing to roll through Josh's six pack of questions heading into week number one, Josh question number four.
57:47What do we got? All right. Which rookie pops up and makes us lose our mind on Sunday night and Monday morning?
57:53All right, Matt, here's your list. You have Jeremiah love versus the chargers as you know, nearly 10 point underdogs.
57:59You have Carnell Tate as one and a half point favorites against the New York jets.
58:03You have Casey Concepcion, eight and a half point dogs against the vaunted Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front.
58:08Chris bell, three and a half point dogs against the Las Vegas Raiders.
58:12Mike Washington is three and a half point faves or pick your other name.
58:16Like, I guess what I'm getting at Matt here is, is there even going to be one rookie that makes us super
58:22excited like we always do and get after week one?
58:25Very clever of you, obviously, to not bring up your boy Stribbling, who had, I believe, well, two catches for 38 yards
58:31in the Thursday night game, if I could predict that correctly.
58:34But obviously, no, that game hasn't happened yet. But it has happened if you're listening to this on the audio format.
58:40So I'm breaking the fifth or fourth or sixth wall.
58:43Who cares? I honestly think that we could be looking at the rookie that loses our mind or makes us lose our mind from a negative standpoint.
58:51Josh, I really don't have a lot of expectations.
58:54I really don't have a lot of expectations for these rookies early on in their career.
58:58Like the guy, I think, who's going to play the biggest and most important role from a receiver standpoint.
59:04Obviously, Jeremiah Love when he's 100% healthy is going to be the dude for the Arizona Cardinals.
59:09But I can totally see Tyrell. You're carrying the football more for the Cardinals in week one.
59:13You know, they're going to get crushed by the Chargers in week one.
59:17I think the guy who's going to play the biggest role among the wide receivers is like Casey Concepcion.
59:23But he's probably going to have like nine catches for 62 yards from Deshaun Watson, you know, with the pop gun passes all day.
59:29I don't know. I just don't feel great about any of these rookies heading into week number one.
59:35Okay. I know we're going to talk about this game a bit later on, but can I pitch you Chris Bell of the Miami Dolphins?
59:42Like Jeff Halfley on Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas, the rookie wide receiver, duo.
59:46I mean, they're both listed as week one starters.
59:48Typically, you know, some people don't want to put anything into that.
59:52But Jeff Halfley basically said, quote, we believe those guys deserve to start and we're going to start them and said that
59:58there's no pitch count here on Chris Bell. Matt, if the Dolphins are going to shock anyone this season, it should be
60:04week one against the Las Vegas Raiders and whatever defense that they are throwing out there.
60:09Right. And Chris Bell is a fun player in that he is kind of as a linear skill set in terms of
60:15big athletic can break tackles, can work slants and crossing routes.
60:18And I just wonder if that really meshes quite well with what Bobby Sloic and Malik will just want to do here.
60:25It's a great shout. I could tell since you threw him in there that that was the guy that you wanted to talk about.
60:31So I left this one for you because it's actually, I think, the best answer from this one because you have to
60:38be kind of deep in the weeds to have noticed that like, oh yeah, Chris Bell is just like he's going to
60:44play in week one way ahead of schedule starter way ahead of schedule.
60:48And I actually love the idea of him as that movement player with Caleb Douglas seemingly being kind of tethered as the ex receiver in this offense.
60:56And, you know, I think you and I dabbled in some maybe Bobby Sloic apologist type deal when he was with the Houston Texans.
61:02And listen, I was hard on Sloic towards the end because he didn't, he did not transition that well out of that
61:09offense well out of the Shanahan greatest hits playbook.
61:11But if the Miami Dolphins are just running the Shanahan greatest hits playbook and we're talking about like play action in breakers
61:18and I think Chris Bell can do that stuff pretty well and make some plays after the catch.
61:23Bobby Sloic was an outstanding offensive coordinator in terms of passing play design his rookie year with CJ Stroud.
61:28And there was a lot of heavier personnel usage that then allowed multiple and max protection.
61:33And then you had two man routes down the field and that was, you know, Nico Collins and Tank Dell and Noah Brown.
61:39And that was it. And then you just got them into wide open areas and that's going to be Caleb Douglas.
61:45And that's going to be Chris Bell. One final follow up here, Matt.
61:49Shouldn't it be in our radar a little bit?
61:52And I'm, it's been in our radar, you know, all of August that we aren't saying Cardinal Tate's name when the Titans
61:58are actually one and a half point favorites here against the Jets, a Jets secondary.
62:02That is AZ Thomas, Brandon Stevens and Jarvis Brownlee.
62:05Like, if that's the point, then we're already completely out on what the Titans are going to be here.
62:10And maybe they are the ones that shock us and make us rethink every conclusion that we made in August because of
62:16the matchup that they have here in week one against the Jets.
62:20Yeah. I think the one silver lining you could take from Cardinal Tate's usage from the preseason, I talked about this with
62:26Nate on yesterday's show regarding Cardinal Tate was that he was used more as the off ball, you know, Z receiver, as
62:33opposed to like, they're just kind of sacrificing Calvin Ridley and Alec Io manner as the X receiver.
62:38And I think they're going to come in here and just run a bunch of RPO nonsense, which I don't love in
62:44the longterm for anybody on this offense. But think about like the 2023 season with Michael Pittman and Gardner Minshew, and they're running a bunch of RPOs.
62:52And it's just first read, first read, first read, first read going to Michael Pittman over and over again.
62:57Theoretically, it seems like Cardinal Tate is going to kind of operate in that world.
63:01But I also can't imagine that it's not like 50 50 with Wando Robinson in that way, which like if Wando Robinson
63:08wasn't on this team, I feel like I'd be much more gassed up about Cardinal Tate, which is kind of an odd
63:14thing to say, but it's, it's just how I feel about it.
63:17Yeah. You have the Wanda wall in your face, or at least Brian Dayball does like the first.
63:23Yeah, it's not me. Entires. The play sheet is just, you know, the Wanda target zone and then everyone else just gets secondary aspects of this.
63:30Yeah. I don't know. I mean, so often we think we know exactly what's going to happen in fancy draft season and quickly we are proven wrong.
63:38Now that doesn't mean that week one then carries into week 11.
63:41There's a lot of ups and downs between there, but I would like to think that if the Titans have any juice
63:47this year, that they can show it in week one in this matchup that they are favored in.
63:53Well, we'll talk about the Titans again in nobody's games of the week, but last one I'll nominate here.
63:58Sunday night football, Malachi Fields, sick touchdown catch. Okay.
64:01You know, and we got Chris Collinsworth, like his college recall that game.
64:04I mean, I don't know how the whole Sunday night rotation works.
64:08Definitely. Yeah. He's calling. Yeah. He's calling the game.
64:10You know, he just called the game last night.
64:13He's a busy man. I don't know. He's like, you know, I once remember a great touchdown gets from another.
64:19He loves Notre Dame. Yep. That's right. So I'm just saying, I think I could see something from Malachi Fields, but I
64:25think it's just going to be the number two receiver on this Giants offense as a rookie after they released Darius Slayton.
64:31Okay. Let's get to your fifth question heading into week one.
64:34Well, since I'm joining the wide receiver person himself, I got to talk wide receivers here.
64:39So Matt, I like person. That was my favorite one that people do like whisper.
64:43I hate guru. Guru is the worst. Yeah. Those are like person.
64:47Okay. Person entity. Yes. Which of these past catchers sees the biggest change in usage thanks to the new play caller or team that they're a part of?
64:55Okay. Here's the list. Zay Flowers at the Indianapolis Colts this week.
64:58Marvin Harrison Jr. At the Los Angeles Chargers. DJ Moore at the Houston Texans.
65:02Jalen Waddell at the Kansas City Chiefs. Emeka Buka at the Cincinnati Bengals.
65:06So there's a bit of a theme. Again, all these players are on the road, but they're all connected to at least
65:12a new play caller or on a new team here.
65:15So Matt, what is your answer? All right. I think Ibuka and Waddell are going to be playing in almost completely different
65:21roles than what we watched them with last year.
65:24Whereas both guys were kind of outside X receivers Waddell more so than Ibuka.
65:28Although Ibuka definitely was leaning into the X receiver territory when Mike Evans was out, of course.
65:33And I've talked about that a lot. I think both those guys are basically in completely different roles as they, as both
65:39of them are going to be more Z receivers this year.
65:42Their slot rates are going to go up. And I'm high on both of those guys, obviously, over the course of the season.
65:49I love that. I saw Hayden's put this like, yeah, man, Emeka Buka really lost out on all those August fantasy points
65:55for me when with the toe injury and training camp.
65:58Love that because, yeah, he's just like practice. He might not be 100%.
66:02That's totally fair. But he's practicing in full. He has an elite matchup in week number one.
66:07Bengals gave up the most. Bengals gave the most passing production last year to receivers.
66:11In motion at the snap. The Falcons under Zach Robinson last year led the NFL in passing yards to receivers in motion
66:17at the snap, according to fantasy points data. Yeah, I think this is just a smash spot for Ibuka and a pretty
66:23good spot for Chris Goddard and all these passing players for the Tampa Buccaneers.
66:27Jalen Waddell, I think, is a good spot. I would say, you know, Harrison and Flowers probably don't see as big of like massive shifts.
66:35That's super obvious to note in their usage. But I think the subtleties will matter on the.
66:39Like the margins that will be good for both of them.
66:43I'm not sure Harrison will see it all that much in week one, just because I think they're going to get smoked by the Chargers.
66:50I want to ask you about DJ Moore, though, here.
66:53And I know I'm just like I literally talk about everybody on this list.
66:57DJ Moore, though, I think is another guy that will see a pretty big shift in his route diet.
67:02I talked about this with Hayden at one point where I did sort of a deep dive study on my own charting
67:08data to try to quantify who was like the most misused wide receiver last year relative to the routes that they ran
67:15versus the routes that they were best on. More was one of the top five names that showed up.
67:20And if like you just juxtapose his route tree last year, what he was good at, even in the last two years,
67:26really down years for him production wise. And you've mapped that to like Keon Coleman's X receiver route tree under Joe Brady in his first season there.
67:34It's a lot of quick slants, deeper stop routes, go routes like more can still run those well.
67:39And basically the bet for the Buffalo Bills this year, Josh, is what we need to fix our passing game is just
67:46DJ Moore and some other minor tweaks. And when they've gone against the Texans the last couple of years, they've gotten crushed.
67:52The Texans played their second highest rate of man coverage in 2025 in any game against these Buffalo Bills because you can do that.
67:59So he needs to be the one that moves the needle the most.
68:02And they likely brought DJ Moore in and you can tell me if, you know, the numbers line up for this.
68:08And if they don't, then maybe they have a problem as, you know, their man coverage beater.
68:13Because other than that, you had, you know, Khalil Shakir is their best, you know, maybe zone and yards after catch sitter.
68:20And if DJ Moore is going to be that, it's a heck of a first audition for it.
68:25Right. I almost made the bills an entire question in this, like, are we instantly going to see this drop back rate
68:31change, you know, from the 31st, 25th and 30th over the last three seasons up to, I don't know, 12th, 10th in week one.
68:38And if that's the case, then DJ Moore is a focal point.
68:41You know, James Cook catches more passes on top of it.
68:45We get different styling of fancy points from Josh Allen than when we have in the past.
68:49I can't quite get on my mind. And maybe what you just said is a huge factor here that like DJ Moore
68:56is on this drastic decline in production over the last couple of seasons from like 70 yards per game down to 40 yards per game.
69:03And I mean, that was in a Ben Johnson offense.
69:06So it's not like we can say, oh, his play caller was just crap.
69:10You know, maybe he just didn't wasn't a fit for everything.
69:13Let's put that that way with DJ Moore. But at the same time, we also know that a handful of years ago,
69:19he has spectacular season production wise with Joe Brady in Carolina.
69:22So I can't wait to see what the plan is here, because like you said, the Texans defense has been the boogeyman
69:29for a lot of quarterbacks and especially one that's MVP caliber like Josh Allen.
69:33Yeah, it's really fascinating. Just a great spot to test a lot of these theories here in week one for the Buffalo
69:39Bills, including, you know, you mentioned the James Cook catching more passes.
69:42Because again, I keep bringing up the preview show that I did with Nate on football 301, probably because I just recorded
69:49it like three or four hours ago. That's one.
69:51But also there was some good stuff in there and talked about how James Cook, if he is going to catch more
69:57passes this year, isolated up with Henry Toa Toa on the Eastern Texans might be like one nit to pick when they get into those man coverage looks.
70:05So we're going to see if James Cook and his sly little, you know, allusion to catching more passes on the show this year.
70:12We'll see if that gets proven right here in week one.
70:16Any of these other just wide receivers that you threw out there that you want to just highlight?
70:21Yeah, I mean, say Flowers, Matt, if we look back and he gets, you know, three red zone targets or two red
70:27zone targets in the first week, like, oh, yes, we're on a great path that we want to see after, you know,
70:33only seeing about 14 of them combined over the last two seasons.
70:37So say Flowers, if he just does what he did last year is going to pay off as ADP.
70:42But as you and I have spoken about a lot, he can go from what, like wide receiver 17 up to wide
70:48receiver seven if he catches another three, four, five touchdowns this year.
70:52And that's the key to everything. And hopefully Declan Doyle can bring some of that magic from, you know, his time in different offenses.
70:59And most recently with Ben Johnson and manufacture some space and some easy access stuff for Zay Flowers in the tight fields,
71:05because that hasn't been part of his game in the past.
71:08Yeah, this tweet from Jared Smola that I'll reference here.
71:11Colts ranked ninth in man coverage rate last season, 29 percent Zay Flowers versus man coverage last year, 0.3 targets per route.
71:17It was 0.24 against zone 3.06 yards per route against man coverage, 2.5 against zone coverage.
71:22So I just imagine Zay Flowers in motion in these heavy personnel packages, man coverage against the Colts.
71:27Yeah, I think Jared's right that we see a pretty big week for Zay Flowers here in week number one.
71:33Okay, let's get to your sixth and final question here heading into week one.
71:37All right. Which low projected offense shocks the world, shocks everything and actually looks good?
71:41And hopefully I'm not stepping on your toes too much with some of these bad teams.
71:46But there are six teams projected to score 20 points or less in week one.
71:50Okay, that's the Browns, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, the Falcons, the Titans and the Commanders.
71:55Those are the bottom. I guess those are seven teams.
71:58I couldn't even count seven teams projected to score 20 or less.
72:01So I'll let you have first pick. Which of those offenses do you have the most belief in here in week one?
72:07Oh my God. That I have the most belief in?
72:10Yes. When you put it like that, I mean, I'm so Cardinals curious and Cardinals pilled that I kind of want to say that.
72:17You better have belief in some of these guys because the Cardinals had four players in the top 80 picks.
72:23The Falcons had, you know, three players in the top 70 picks, you know, the Commanders.
72:27We'll get to the Falcons. We're talking about the Falcons on the other side of this.
72:32And we have an injury, you know, news to talk about there.
72:35But just on the Cardinals thing, I ended up drafting so much Michael Wilson this year.
72:40And I don't know how. I mean, look, obviously I was over indexed.
72:44Both he and Marv were fairly cheap, Matt. So why did you make that decision in your head of Michael Wilson over Marv?
72:50Because Michael Wilson was cheaper and I had them ranked essentially in the same tier.
72:55So it was just easier to get Michael Wilson and wanting to have like exposure to these to this Cardinals offense, which I think can outkick expectations.
73:02And you had the two premium pieces. I think I only ended up with Jeremiah Love and one like we start we
73:09actually start these players league because I think it was actually in one of the drafts we're in together here at Yahoo.
73:15We're ended up with Ashton Gentty and and Jeremiah Love's like, let's just let's just.
73:19Let's mess around here. Let's have some fun, like went receiver in round one and got those two guys in rounds two and three.
73:26Let's just have a little fun with the high ankle sprain bros.
73:30But other than that, like it was mostly just I sprinkled in some Marv and got a lot of Michael Wilson because
73:36he just would end up being the highest guy in my queue because I believe in him as a talent.
73:42And I believe that his role in this offense, he's not going to be playing the Puka Naku role or anything like that.
73:48But as the detached Z receiver blocking and the whole deal, I think it fits his game pretty well.
73:54So, yeah, ultimately, he just was a guy I ended up with a lot.
73:58And now I'm looking at him in all my week one lineups being like, am I starting Michael Wilson against the Chargers
74:04defense that obviously we got a different play caller, but was has been excellent the last couple of years.
74:09Okay, I'm going to make the pitch for the New York Jets.
74:13Okay, that's the team that I'm going to pick from this group of seven.
74:17They are the second lowest projected offense at 18 and a half points.
74:20But when I look up some of these matchups on paper, like sure, if you want to say the Titans have a
74:27strength, it is their defensive line, namely Jeffrey Simmons.
74:29But the strengths of this Jets offense is that offensive line.
74:32I mean, they have two of the best young tackles in the league.
74:36Joe Tippman at right guard. I think that they have enough to give Geno Smith a platform to succeed, to create some running lanes for Brees Hall.
74:44When you and I were sitting in a restaurant in Buffalo, I think a preseason game was on.
74:49And it was like the Seahawks backups against the Titans defensive starters.
74:52And the Seahawks backups were just going for like 60-yard touchdowns and like 70-yard touchdown drives over and over and over again.
74:59And I mean, the Titans are favored in this game.
75:02Once again, by one and a half points. I'm looking at this offense, Matt.
75:06I'm looking at the starting 11. I'm like, this should score more than 18 and a half points against the Tennessee Titans.
75:12And I wouldn't be surprised. Shout out Jets fans that we look back and they have some optimism after week one.
75:18Oh, baby. I mean, I like it. This is a talented group on paper.
75:22Sure. And, man, I think about the Titans defense too.
75:25This has been rattling around in the back of my brain just because I'm very Titans skeptical.
75:30And they're also in the Nobody's Games of the Week segment as well.
75:33So we'll come back to the Titans. But I've thought about this with Robert Sala where last year with the San Francisco
75:4049ers, they were so banged up in the whole deal.
75:43And it was kind of like, man, he really got this team to play hard.
75:47He really got these guys going and everything. But then they got smoked on defense basically every week.
75:52And I get it. Like, they had injuries here.
75:55But are we sure that, like, Robert Sala brings a schematic advantage to the table here?
75:59I'm a little skeptical of that. Well, and at corner, they're going to play Cordell Flott, who's coming from the Giants.
76:05And then on the opposite side, it's Alante Taylor, who, to me, when I think of Alante Taylor, is namely a slot corner.
76:12And that's when he's at his best. And it sounds like they're going to ask him to play on the outside.
76:18And if that's the case, like, give me Garrett Wilson.
76:21Give me Adnan Mitchell to maybe have, like, three or four big-time outbreaking or downfield catches in this game.
76:26Like, all we need is one here. And they can even get funky with some personnel groupings with Mason Taylor and Kenyon
76:32Sadiq or take Sadiq out and have Omar Cooper in there.
76:36Again, this is way too much talent to have there on offense.
76:39And Frank Reich might be the reason for it, that they're only for 18 and a half points.
76:44Yes, the Frank Reich factor is a big one here, especially as we're coming off the heels of Wednesday night football, where
76:50I'm maybe more just like, got it. If you even have just a replacement-level play caller, which I kind of think Joshua
76:57Daniels is just like a replacement-level play caller, offensive coordinator at this point.
77:00Maybe that's a hot take. But that's, like, not good enough.
77:04If you're not pushing the right buttons schematically at this point, you can do whatever you want from just a formation standpoint.
77:10It's not going to be good enough. And I think Frank Reich is even lower than Joshua Daniels in my rankings there.
77:16So, yeah, we'll see about that. But I do like your optimism on the Jets.
77:20We'll maybe test that a little bit more as we get into No One's Games of the Week.
77:26And with that, we're going to take a quick break.
77:28When we come back, we'll get into that segment right after this.
77:32All right, we're back. And welcome to No One's Games of the Week.
77:36I forgot about the lullaby sound effect. Oh, my God.
77:38That's so good. Yeah. Are you fired up to talk a little football, Josh, after the lullaby sound effect?
77:44I hear enough lullaby soundtracks with my eight-month-old Matt.
77:46That's almost like a Pavlovian response that I had to, like, slightly tiptoe out of the room as that's going on and
77:53dim the lights so you can take a nap.
77:55Well, these games might make you want to dim the lights and take a nap.
78:00Might make you want to tiptoe off this podcast right now.
78:03We've got three games to talk through here in No One's Games of the Week.
78:07We've got Jets and Titans that we've alluded to.
78:10We've got Dolphins at Ravens that we've alluded to.
78:12But one we haven't really touched on yet, and it's going to be the one I think we should spend the most
78:19time on here because we've got some news around this particular contest.
78:22Falcons at Steelers. It was already going to be in this segment, Josh, just with the whole malaise around the Falcons right
78:28now and the fact that they barely wanted to admit that they got a start to a tongue of Ilo here in Week 1.
78:35But we found out today that Tua went down with back discomfort in today's practice.
78:39You're seeing the video if you're watching with us on YouTube right now.
78:43Now Cooper Rush is taking all the QB1 reps.
78:46So we got a Cooper Rush Mike McCarthy revenge game on tap here, Josh.
78:50So I did the NFC South preview pod with Nate Tice.
78:53That was a four-hour marathon a couple weeks ago.
78:55And as soon as I was asked about the Atlanta Falcons, I floated the thought that this team is thinking more about 2027 than 2026.
79:03And that was just because how the quarterback position had kind of been handled.
79:07And I think this just puts that into overdrive.
79:09I don't want to, like, crush anyone here, Matt, because we legitimately might be looking at the end of Tua's career with this.
79:16Like, if he's not going to play here in the first two or three weeks of the season when he's just kind
79:22of, like, filling space for Michael Penix coming in here.
79:25But, Matt, like, this is what gave me so much concern about drafting B.
79:29John Robinson second overall, Drake London 18th overall, Kyle Pitts at, what, 71st overall, where he was going on whatever platform you use.
79:35This is not good. I mean, this is not good.
79:38And you would like to think that against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is one of the winnable games.
79:44The markets have the Falcons only for 18 and a half points, and they are four and a half point underdogs in this matchup.
79:50Well, I don't know what else to say. I'll tell you what to say.
79:54I'm really, really nervous about this one, not only because of everything we just said, but also on the other side of this here with the Steelers.
80:02I think that Patrick Graham taking over the defensive coordinator position for Pittsburgh hasn't gotten nearly enough attention because I think Patrick
80:08Graham's units with the Raiders have consistently, and frankly, even with the Giants at times when he was a defensive coordinator there,
80:15have consistently punched above their weight class. And he would get below average defenses out of some of the worst personnel outside
80:21of Max Crosby that you could put on paper.
80:24And I also think this is a guy who has more of like a Patriots route.
80:28You know, I'm not saying he's going to be like Brian Flores or anything.
80:32Come on with these crazy blitzes and crazy coverages on the back end.
80:36But he might. And this is a defense in Pittsburgh that was, I mean, just it had really, I think, gone stale from a schematic standpoint.
80:43So we could not only see like, yeah, yeah, the Falcons are undermanned with either Tua or certainly Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback.
80:50But then they're also put into a blender by a defense that throws a ton at them in week one that they aren't prepared for.
80:57Totally. And they go three deep at edge rusher, TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig on that side.
81:02Maybe the the only glimmer of hope is that this is a very much reworked secondary here for the Steelers.
81:08You bring in Jamel Dean from the Bucks. We know Joey Porter has missed all of training camp while holding in.
81:14And as we have seen, when you miss all of training camp, that does impact you once you hit the regular season,
81:21at least for other skilled players that we've seen do that, then Rayshon Jenkins and Jaquan Brisker are the stars at safety,
81:27along with Jalen Ramsey as that nickel spot. So, yeah, I mean, who knew that the Steelers like could still hold on
81:33to that Mike Tomlin magic of like just doing enough just to get by of being like nine and eight every single season and squeezing the playoffs.
81:41But, Matt, they might carry that here into week one with the cake is matchup possible with the Atlanta Falcons.
81:47Let's live in a hypothetical world where it's a disaster and the Falcons get smoked in week one.
81:52What are you going to tell people to do about Drake London after that game?
81:56This is a guy who each of the last three years has started really slow.
82:00Actually, if you look at his week, he's always in the week post week one panic meter show.
82:05I think he's going to be in the post week one panic meter show here again this year, given everything that we're saying here.
82:12What are you going to advise people to do about Drake London?
82:16I'll add one more variable on top of this.
82:18What if we come out and we see him play like he's not that movement slot receiver like he's been previously?
82:24Because I look at all the other dudes on this roster and it's like my boy, Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zachariah Branch.
82:31Which one are you telling me of those guys is the sacrificial X receiver?
82:35I'm not so sure. Yeah, it's fair. And Kevin Stefanski's offenses, the primary read has often been, you know, tight ends.
82:41And we even saw that in the preseason with like tight end screens and Drake London blocking out in front of him.
82:47With Michael Penix, I'm actually more optimistic of Drake London than I am with Tua, than I am with Cooper Rush, than
82:53I am with all these other guys. Like the four, five quarterbacks that Drake London has played with.
82:58Penix is easily the highest in terms of yards per route run on 385 routes, target rate per route, fantasy points per route, all that type of stuff.
83:06So I am begging if I drafted Drake London for Michael Penix to feel good about his body and actually ask to
83:13get back in the game and get back in the starting lineup.
83:16Because Matt, I think that's the reason why he's out of it is that Penix doesn't feel 100%.
83:21And this is someone that's gone through so many injuries that he has basically said to this staff, hey, I'm not going
83:28out there because this might be my last chance until I feel as close to 100% as possible.
83:33I think he's right to do that. Okay, so let's say like the Falcons are, they're not going to win this game.
83:39How are the Steelers putting up points on the other side of it, Josh?
83:43Yeah, it's a great question. It's a really good question.
83:46Every interview that Aaron Rodgers has done, he's mentioned multiple times that Michael Pittman and his like soft tissue injuries might not
83:52be a big part of the game plan here in week one.
83:56And he's pointed the finger at DK Metcalf and Pat Friermuth as big options here.
84:00And so if you've missed out and you're having to, you know, put Brock Bowers on IR or on the bench for
84:06a couple of weeks, that might slight pickup at tight end is, I think, Pat Friermuth.
84:11If I'm believing the words and that's a dangerous thing to do with what Aaron Rodgers is speaking at this moment.
84:17I was going to say, I saw about a bazillion Aaron Rodgers podcast clips on my timeline today.
84:22Mark's safe from listening to any of them. I say this as a podcast host.
84:26There's too many podcasts. Okay, I mean, come on.
84:29We don't need all these podcasts. But anyways, Jalen Warren, I would guess, gets the most touches out of this backfield in week number one.
84:36But we'll reassess that if I'm wrong about it coming into week number two.
84:40Okay, game two here in nobody's games of the week.
84:43We already kind of talked about this one. Dolphins, Raiders, just backfield thoughts, expectations on the Ashton-Gentee-Mike Washington split as Gentee looks
84:49like he is a quote unquote full go heading into week one.
84:53Yes. And that's great to see. Like Ashton-Gentee after a prayer circle that they could only use one of and not for
84:59Brock Bowers, again, I would like to think that we get 60% use at least of Ashton-Gentee.
85:04But Matt, that's a drastic departure of the 84% of the backfield touches that we got last year.
85:09And I think based on what we have heard from the beat writers, from Clint Kubiak, from Spytak and company saying that
85:15Kubiak stood on the table to draft Mike Washington Jr., that he's going to have a larger chunk of this backfield than
85:21people thought a month ago at this time. And so I'm not saying it's going to be 50-50 split, but even 60-40 is a huge difference here.
85:29And my eye is on, you know, Tyler Linderbaum really elevating this entire offensive line because I really like Gentee and he
85:35had no chance in a lot of situations last year.
85:38And just going from awful to average along that offensive line would help tremendously from both the runners here.
85:44Yeah, it's huge. And how many more times this year are the Raiders going to be home favorites?
85:49It's probably not very many. So I think that Gentee, just depending on how healthy he is, gets a decent bit of the work here in week one.
85:57I've kind of thought about their backfield duo. Josh is like Mike Washington is a poor man's Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet is like a souped up.
86:05Oh, geez. I just slipped up. But Ashton Gentee is like a souped up version of Zach Charbonnet.
86:10Yeah. Well, that's what I mean. He's like, that's what I'm saying.
86:13He is a souped up version of Zach Charbonnet.
86:16But if you're telling me souped up version of Charbonnet getting trusted around the goal line, you know, in the passing game,
86:22getting some of these critical down and distance situations again.
86:25What is that worth from a fantasy ADP standpoint?
86:28We'll find out. But I think that's a pretty decent role for Gentee.
86:31Mike Washington makes a big play here. I mean, he made a big play in every single preseason game that he was in.
86:38He is a big play waiting to happen. He's a perfect fit for his system.
86:42And if we look at, you know, this Dolphins defense, it's Jordan Phillips, Zach Sealer.
86:46I know they're missing their first round defensive tackle out of Michigan from last year, too.
86:51So, again, if you can run, if you can improve your running game in this iteration of the Raiders, this is like
86:57the perfect opponent to do it against when the edge rushers are Chop Robinson and Josh Uche as well.
87:03So, yeah, I'm looking at at least, Matt, at least a 21-yard run for Mike Washington Jr.
87:08in this game. A single- You know, Josh, the more I look at this game, the more I hear you talk about it.
87:14I think this is one of those ones that goes over the pitiful 40.5-point total.
87:18You know, typically we do see like offenses can get off to a hot start over some of the defenses.
87:24I think both these defenses look pretty rough on paper.
87:27The Raiders have some guys they paid for some players in the offseason.
87:31Obviously, they have Max Crosby, but I can see the Raiders moving the football.
87:35Like, Kirk Cousins is Kirk Cousins, but I don't think he's going to get fooled by anything at this point in his career.
87:41And I think, like, I mean, how many times when he would go against Todd Bowles' defense does he just carve that
87:48thing up because he knows how to diagnose a blitz?
87:51He knows how to diagnose his own coverage and just like get the football in play.
87:55I think you can do that against this Dolphins defense, certainly with some of the personnel there.
88:00But also just that, and then on Miami side of things, the young and exciting, like we don't know what we're looking
88:06at duo of like Malik Willis and Devon H.
88:09And I'm like weirdly talking myself into this game being a more it's tough to know like which players are putting on
88:15our lineups because of it, but like a more juicy fantasy matchup than you think.
88:19And we always talk about offensive lines and how that can be, you know, a platform of success or just destroy whatever game plan that you had.
88:27The Dolphins on paper, I'm sure Nate talked about this with you, is like sneakily fun, you know, like Patrick Pollitt left tackle, long and athletic.
88:35Caden Pronkter, about 400 pounds at left guard. Aaron Brewer, one of the best centers in the NFL.
88:40They're moving Jonas Savaina back to right guard, which he should be much better at.
88:44And then Austin Jackson has kind of been up and down there at the right tackle spot.
88:49But Matt, that's important because when people think about Malik Willis, they probably imagine him just scrambling and running around.
88:55But when you look back to his time under the floor in Green Bay, last year's game against the Ravens, when you
89:01look at some of the moments that we've already seen with him in the preseason, he's a pocket passer now.
89:07You know, he wants to work between the tackles.
89:09He wants to throw down the field. He wants to attack different blades of grass.
89:14And that's what I want to keep in mind here, that this isn't just going to be some, you know, herky jerky.
89:20Let's run him around and get some easy completions.
89:22They're going to try to like throw downfield and create explosives.
89:26And that's going to be fun with also having one of the most, if not the most explosive running back in the backfield behind him.
89:33Look, it's such a final like preseason brain take to get off here.
89:36But there's just a lot of ways that this offense in Miami can put you in conflict because I agree with you,
89:43like what Malik Willis can do at this point.
89:45Like he's just such a developed player from what he was when he was coming from freaking Liberty as a third round pick into the NFL.
89:53He's a much different player. He can actually play from pocket.
89:56He can push the ball down the field. Now, are any of these receivers going to help him out there in their very first game?
90:03Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, you know, we'll see about that.
90:06But there's a lot of ways where I think this Dolphins offense can just be interesting to watch in bad matchups.
90:12And this is one of them. So again, if you're looking for fantasy deep sleepers, maybe there's some few guys here.
90:18Last game up in this segment, we've talked about both the Jets and the Titans here a decent bit, but Jets at
90:24Titans, any other final takes you want to get off for either of these two teams here?
90:29Uh, other than Brian Dayball saying that it's basically gonna be a 50 50 split between Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears.
90:35Like that is drastically different than we thought it would be ahead of the preseason and then that first preseason game hit.
90:42And it was exactly like a series for one guy, a series for another.
90:46Um, look, I don't want to make sweeping conclusions ahead of week one, uh, especially when they're favored in this game.
90:52But if it doesn't go right for Brian Dayball this season with came word at quarterback, uh, this could be the end
90:58of Brian Dayball's time calling plays in the NFL.
91:01Yeah. I'm really skeptical of the dayball offense in general, which maybe it takes me by surprise.
91:05We'll see. But I, I'm pretty skeptical about just that again, where does he fall in the needle moving play callers at this point?
91:12Like it's, it's a very strict, like have, have not world in the NFL right now.
91:17I'm skeptical that dayball scheme is, is in the halves portion of that.
91:21And with came word, we, we can't have one of those mind melting, cut your head off type of place, you know, like in a game.
91:28Don't you just need to get through it part.
91:31Don't you just always get part of this first game.
91:33Let's not have it in there. Cam. Okay. Let's not retreat 20 yards in the backfield.
91:38Understand when a play is dead live for the next one in this environment.
91:42And I just hope like, I don't want to be out on cam ward after the first week of his second season.
91:48When the first one you can just throw out when his head coach was like fired halfway through the year, along with
91:55the offensive line coach, because that was his dad and all this type of stuff.
91:59Like give me some hope because I want to be a cam ward believer and I want to get it right because
92:05he is such a fun thrower of the football.
92:08I'm just a bit skeptical of the entire environment of it.
92:11Yeah. I wish I was less skeptical of the environment, but I am with you there.
92:16I'm very skeptical. And I have been pretty much like since the day ball higher happened.
92:20And, you know, I just, I do feel like cam ward might be one of those guys.
92:25It's just always when you grade to the flashes with a player like this, you're just going to be burned more often
92:31than not, because I, I feel this way about quarterback play Josh.
92:35And this is, we don't have to go on a whole tangent about this, but to me, it's just the quieter moments
92:41matter a lot more than the highs. Like the highs are intoxicating, but this is why a guy like Jared golf can
92:47come out and just have the most productive offense in the NFL on an annual basis.
92:52Like he's not flashy. He's not going to have the, yeah, he drifts off his back foot and throw some sick 40
92:58yard pass that nobody on earth can make. Like there, how many other guys on earth can make that play?
93:04How many other guys on earth can keep the train on the tracks for, you know, 95% of the game, which I
93:10think matters more than the, than the 5% of the wild players.
93:14I don't know. Basically the instructor stuff matters more than the out of structure stuff.
93:18That's what you're saying. I would love the stat line, by the way, 218 passing yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions.
93:24I will bite your hand off for that cam word stat line in week one.
93:28This game's got a little bit of intrigue to it.
93:31And I'm with you on the jets being maybe in a pretty good position here on offense in week one jets, Robert Sala revenge game in week one.
93:39That's what the people are tuning in for, for the first week of the NFL season.
93:43All right, we are going to take our last quick break.
93:46We come back. We've got the mailbag. We got your questions.
93:50What to do with some of these week one debates.
93:53We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back and welcome to fantasy hotline presented by Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL.
94:00Every single week, we ask you all a burning question.
94:03All right, we reach out to you. We try to get your sense of things.
94:07So for this week, we asked you who is a player you are nervous to start on your fantasy team in week one.
94:14And we got a bunch of different names here, starting with reading these Twitter handles every single week.
94:19I can barely get through this. Okay. This first one comes in from at D one double deuce.
94:24All right, here we go. We got the double deuce in here.
94:27Big tennis player. Jeremiah. Sure. Jeremiah. God. Jeremiah love in my flex.
94:31I have Marshawn Lloyd and Mike Evans on my bench, but I don't know how I can sit love over those two.
94:37Well, Mike Evans, if you're watching this live, you know, you still got some time to figure that out.
94:43If you're listening to this tomorrow. You know, tough break, but okay.
94:46Jeremiah love Josh. How are we feeling about the rookie running back coming off a high ankle sprain?
94:51Maybe he's healthy. Maybe he's not. He's the number two on the fake depth chart.
94:55How are we feeling about Jeremiah love this week?
94:58Yeah. When in doubt, I typically go with running backs over wide receivers in my flex.
95:03And I would go Jeremiah love much higher than Marshawn Lloyd here.
95:06I don't want to say that, you know, a game where the Arizona Cardinals are, you know, nine half point underdogs is
95:12a game script in favor of Jeremiah love. But in the pantheon of running backs, it could be worse, you know, because
95:19what we have seen from Jeremiah love in the one half that he played and got 14 touches was multiple angle routes
95:25out of the backfield where, you know, wide receivers or tight ends push like three verticals down to just push coverage off.
95:31And it was basically a manufactured touch for Jeremiah love to catch a pass four yards down the field versus, you know,
95:38a swing or a screen pass three yards behind the line of scrimmage.
95:41And I think we can trust the floor to get two, three and heck if it's a nine and a half point
95:48difference in the second half, maybe four or five of those here in this game, Matt.
95:52So Jeremiah love is the easy answer for me here.
95:55And I think he's going to go over that three reception, 22 receiving yard mark that we have here for his week one projections.
96:02Yeah, I'm going to have him as a running back to this week, which yeah, typically running back to over kind of
96:08a low end wide receiver to high end wide receiver three, which is where I think Mike Evans will rank.
96:14I think that's the correct answer. Yeah, definitely. Jeremiah love over Marshawn Lloyd.
96:18No question about that. I really take your point about the passing game usage for Jeremiah love, even though I think it's
96:24almost like this might be Tyler Algear's like highest usage rate of the entire season just because like they like Tyler Algear.
96:30He's a good player and they want to keep Jeremiah love fresh.
96:34Like there's no point running him into the brick wall in the first week of the season.
96:38But yeah, from a past game standpoint, that's going to help Jeremiah love.
96:42I will just say about Mike Evans. And again, I know that game happens tonight.
96:46So I'm risking talking about this, especially with what I'm going to say.
96:50But for some of these guys like the older players that have big injury questions, if you're not going to start him
96:56now, like what was the point of drafting Mike Evans?
96:59You know what I'm saying? Like he's theoretically he says he's healthy.
97:03He's coming in here, you know, full go big matchup in week one.
97:07If you draft if you drafted Mike Evans, you're not going to start him when he's at his healthiest.
97:12What was the point of drafting him? Yeah. And he even alluded to the fact that it was all part of the
97:18plan for him to miss all these practices with the groin and the quad.
97:22And maybe that's true. Like, again, the 49ers are.
97:25What percentage do you believe that stuff? Yeah. I mean, if that might be a boy who cried wolf situation for him where.
97:31Oh, yeah. Those actually weren't big injuries. And then later on we get, you know, some groins and some quads and all
97:38that type of stuff with the Rams, though. I mean, one of the easiest cornerback rooms to pick on last year.
97:44And they totally reworked it this offseason by snagging both of the chiefs starting corners and Trip McDuffie and Jalen Watson.
97:50So, yeah, my line with Mike Evans has always been like I wish we would have gotten 27 year old Mike Evans with Kyle Shanahan.
97:57But, you know, 33 year old Mike Evans still has enough talent to score you some fancy points.
98:02So I like that thought of if you drafted him and you're not playing in week one, are you certain you're going
98:08to be able to play him in week two?
98:11Yeah, it's a good question. Well, again, if you're listening to this show tomorrow, you already know the answer to how it went for Mike Evans.
98:18So I think Jeremiah Love is still the answer I'm going to go with here.
98:23OK, next one up at catch underscore 22. Are JT?
98:25OK, cool. Marvin Harrison Jr. I got burnt last year and I'm ready to be heard again.
98:30We touched a little bit about God. Just so many Cardinals in this section already.
98:35I feel like this is going to be disgusting with the Cardinals.
98:38Anyways, Josh, listen, I like I'm Cardinals curious. I like the way the Cardinals often sets up.
98:43But anyways, I know you are. I know you are.
98:46OK, OK. Just why? Why? Why wouldn't you be curious about a team that is, you know, nine and a half point underdogs in the first week?
98:54Why not? Yeah, why not? When has Vegas ever been right about anything before?
98:58OK, Marvin Harrison Jr. We touched a little bit on his usage earlier in the show.
99:02How do you feel about throwing him out into week one lineups?
99:06Yeah, no. I mean, I'm I feel like I'm a Marvin Harrison Jr.
99:09realist here. Maybe I get proven wrong, but Matt.
99:12What does a realist look like to you? That he's a capable starting NFL wide receiver out there and.
99:17You know, pretty freaking tough matchup against the L.A.
99:20Chargers. And no, this is not one of the I just think overall, Matt, the Cardinals are going to have to walk
99:26this tightrope that they did last year in order to for everyone to pay off.
99:30And that is once we get into the third quarter and especially deep into the fourth quarter, it's oh, we sucked for those first three quarters.
99:38And now we flip the switch and magically go on three scoring drives in a row.
99:42And that is just situations I want to bet against, you know, because garbage time, while so many people in the fantasy
99:49bubble fantasize about it and bring it up as a positive.
99:52To me, that's a negative because that means you just weren't good enough early in the game and then you're good enough at the end.
99:59Like, I don't want to depend on that. And somehow, some way, Jacoby Brissett did that over and over and over again last year.
100:06And I just don't think, despite him still playing quarterback for the team and maybe and definitely an improvement in head coach,
100:12I don't think Matt, he's going to be able to continue that.
100:16So while we might get more, you know, first and second quarter production here for Marvin Harrison Jr.
100:21I really like this projection of just, you know, three receptions for 48 yards, maybe about 55 for him in week one.
100:27Yeah. Don't worry, it gets better. In week two, they face the Seahawks.
100:31So, you know, if you get let down in week one, you can just run it back in week two.
100:37They do have the Niners, the Giants, and then the Lions in weeks three to five, where I think we actually might
100:43see a little bit more from this offense. Yeah, I'm not going to rank Marv or Michael Wilson anything more than, you
100:49know, mid-level wide receiver threes this week and probably not many other weeks.
100:53But I do find this offense interesting. That's kind of my final answer on that one.
100:57Okay, this next one at Joe Wilka sends in Bucky Irving versus Parker Washington for a PPR flex spot.
101:03Yeah, now this is an interesting one, Josh. I am really, really optimistic about the Bucks offense against the Bengals this week,
101:09which leads me to be really optimistic about the running back one, which I think is Bucky Irving going away here, despite
101:15your favorite, you know, boomer fantasy analyst still loving Kenny Gainwell because of those sweet, sweet PPR scam points.
101:21But Parker Washington, obviously people are excited about Parker Washington.
101:24I know you're excited about Parker Washington. Which one of these two guys did you go for in a flex in week one?
101:30I mean, in full PPR, wouldn't you lean? Wouldn't you lean Parker Washington here?
101:34Like that's what I want to do. They're projected for more points.
101:38They're facing a, you know, Cleveland Browns defense that no longer has Miles Garrett.
101:42They are eight and a half point favorites. And so while people might say, well, that's just going to lend itself to running in the second half.
101:50Well, guess what? That means you boasted and put up a whole bunch of points in the first half.
101:55So I want to say Parker. But with Bucky's nameplate here on screen, I am curious of what Zach Robinson is going to do.
102:02I mean, this is one of the best, if not the best offensive line in the NFL.
102:07However, every like insider ish podcast that you listen to, like Jordan, Robert, he just brought it up on NFL daily with Greg Rosenthal.
102:14She just continues to repeat that Zach Robinson loves Kenny Gainwell.
102:17He loves Kenny Gainwell. And so Bucky's in this crossroads moment where that rookie season was spectacular.
102:22He made people miss constantly. He got on the edges of defenders last year just was not good from a jump.
102:28And so who is he? Who is he in the NFL?
102:31And I don't think we have that answer yet.
102:33And maybe week one is a step in that direction.
102:36Yeah, I don't think we have that answer either.
102:39So it is a big test point in week one.
102:42I honestly think maybe Parker Washington is like the safer play in your flex spot from a PPR standpoint.
102:47Although look, I still like, I don't know that we fully know how the route percentage is going to go in Jacksonville in week one.
102:54I mean, you know, if it's like anything lower than 80 percent.
102:58Yeah, no, I don't think we do. I mean, the Jacoby Myers injury actually is kind of throwing a wrench in this
103:04whole situation because he's like in a red note contact jersey here still on Thursday.
103:08So if he's like limited in this game, I'm not 100%.
103:11I'm just talking about like I say, I think it goes Parker Washington runs the most routes and then it's probably some form of BTJ Jacoby Myers.
103:19But it still wouldn't shock me if Parker Washington is like a 70 percent route participation, 75 percent and not like 80
103:25plus percent, which I know we're splitting hairs at that point.
103:29But that leaves you more in like wide receiver to wide receiver three world than anything more than that.
103:34Yeah, I mean, I'm just going to try to confirm my priors and say that he's their best wide receiver and he
103:40was drafted as our best wide receiver this year.
103:43And when the three were together, he was last year and all that stuff.
103:47The other thing with Bucky, I mean, again, the Bucks are projected for a healthy 23 and a half points in this game as our team total.
103:55But there's still underdogs here like this game total is one of the highest the weekend right now at 50 and a half.
104:01And, you know, the Bengals are favored by three and a half here.
104:05So if they do fall back by a touchdown or even a little bit more, then isn't that a Kenny Gainwell moment
104:11versus a Bucky Irving moment on top of it?
104:14So maybe that's giving too much credit to, you know, the Bengals reworked defense and Dexter Lawrence.
104:19Can he fix that run defense immediately once going in there?
104:22If you can, if they can shore it up just a little bit, then then yeah, that Bengals team could be much
104:28more complete than they have been over the past couple of years.
104:31Next one comes in from at Flippy Dog Malik neighbors.
104:34I could go with Chris Godwin instead. Josh, I know you're very optimistic about Malik neighbors.
104:39We all want to be optimistic about Malik neighbors.
104:41I will say the person who sounds the least optimistic about Malik neighbors is Malik neighbors.
104:46Every time he gets behind a mic, he wants to calm down every every fantasy analyst out there.
104:51So he said today, this is a quote we're showing on the screen from Connor Hughes.
104:56He said, you know, when it comes to his decision on to play or not, everyone needs to realize quote, it's my career.
105:02So Josh, where are you at right now? Yeah, this came up during the show.
105:07I was reading it live and it sent chills down my spine a little bit based on how many teams I have Malik neighbors on Connor.
105:14He's followed up by saying this is the line where for the first time Malik neighbors made me question if he'll play
105:20who I mean, however, Matt, if, if he wasn't going to play with the giants have just straight up cut Darius Layton,
105:27you know, looking at their depth chart at wide receiver, doesn't Malik neighbors kind of have to play here.
105:32Like they are, he's the only one it's Malachi fields and it's a whole bunch of nobodies after that.
105:38I mean, you have like sure Jalen Hyde and whoever else in the practice squad that you can call up.
105:43But again, when we try to dot connect here, I mean, he, he needs to play.
105:48He should play. It's been great to see, you know, the, the social media clips of him in routes, but that's the
105:54most we have seen him do anything obviously in preseason action.
105:57Yeah. I don't, does he need, does he need to play in week one?
106:01Like he's got a good point. Like personally. Well, yeah.
106:04Okay. And listen, I totally get it. Like I have neighbors on some dynasty teams.
106:08Like, you know, I love Malik neighbors. I want to see neighbors on the field, but he's right.
106:14Like this is his, this is his career. Does he need to go out there again?
106:18They're going to get crushed by the Cowboys, the Superbowl champs of 2026.
106:22They're going to get crushed by the Cowboys in week one.
106:25Do they need him to go out there and run a bunch of routes and, you know, just get frustrated in the first week of the season?
106:33Like, I think it makes sense for them to play.
106:36So like the giants are not going anywhere this year, by the way, like John Harbaugh was behind the mic.
106:41And basically like earlier this week, just set the tone with reporters.
106:45Like, I'm not telling you who's playing in the game.
106:48I'm not telling you what we're doing in this game.
106:51I'm not telling you like the personnel. Like he's like, so don't even bother asking.
106:55And I saw a couple of Ray Ravens reporters being like, yeah, people were on us during the hardball era about how
107:01we just never asked any interesting questions. They were like, this is why the guy is not going to tell you anything.
107:07So I think this is, and by the way, this is exactly how his brother, Jim Harbaugh operates in Los Angeles, you
107:14get nothing out of that building in terms of useful injury information.
107:17So I feel like the guy who's gave us the most caution on this might be the player himself.
107:23And I made this point when he talked about this, I think this was last week where he said, quote, my mind
107:29is focused on playing the regular season, playing whenever that is, even though he admitted like he did the Twitter doc thing
107:35where he's like, yeah, I go and see myself run a routes on social media and I look nice out there.
107:41But, you know, that doesn't mean that I'm ready to play in a football game.
107:45So I don't know, man, like, I just think we've maybe jumped the shark on how early I hope I'm wrong about
107:52this, but I'm preaching caution just in case it goes poorly for neighbors in the first part of the season.
107:57Yeah, I mean, we've seen so many other injuries in training camp go in a negative direction and it's felt only positive for him.
108:04So I think like some of the optimism should have been fair.
108:08Except when he talks. Yes, except when he talks.
108:10Now, Matt, you brought up that the Cowboys are going to crush the Giants.
108:14The markets do not think so. This game is less than a field goal right now.
108:19That's a spread less than a field goal at this moment.
108:22Well, OK, the markets are. Yeah, the markets are simply incorrect about that.
108:26I don't know. I don't know what to tell you.
108:29They're appealing to authority of like it's it's it's our ball and like he's going to fix the Giants.
108:34I don't know what they're doing, but they're they're wrong about that.
108:38OK, well, you might be true. You might be right.
108:40They might be wrong. So, yeah, I just I fear for whatever this passing offense is going to be.
108:46If Malik neighbors doesn't touch the grass because the wide receiver room is is a travesty.
108:50I mean, it would be Odell Beckham back with his blonde highlights.
108:54Once again, being the starting wide receiver for this team.
108:57Malik was asked when he'll know the answer on whether he's not used to play on Sunday.
109:02He said, quote, I'll let God tell me. How does that make you feel, Josh?
109:06How does that make you feel? Back to the Saturday night.
109:09Yeah, I was going to say this is one you're just going to have to take all the way to Saturday.
109:15If it's still like I'll let God tell me on Sunday morning, I might just start Chris Godwin in what's like actually
109:21a nice matchup and not risk like, oh, yeah, Malik neighbors does not play on Sunday night.
109:26Maybe you get Malachi Fields off the waiver wire or something like that, but you're playing it pretty risky in the first game of the season.
109:34It's got to make you feel uncomfortable. Clearly, it makes Josh feel uncomfortable as well.
109:38Okay, let's get to one more here. I want to jump to the last one here at Terry Pagula 69.
109:44Nice. The Bills owner himself got us in the mix here.
109:47You said Kyler Murray and Tyler Warren. I mean, I don't know why you're nervous about putting, you know, Tyler Warren in your fantasy lineup.
109:54I got a lot of Tyler Warren, so we better not be nervous about that.
109:58What are you going to do? Pick up some goofball off the waiver wire?
110:02I don't think so. Put Tyler Warren in your matchup and you're good.
110:06How do you feel about Kyler Murray heading into week one?
110:09This is one of the more interesting offenses, I think, to watch in the first game of the season.
110:15Yeah. Again, on our Sunday night recap show, I mean, we're going to have some instant sweeping conclusions on what Kyler Murray looked like in this offense.
110:22Everyone's going to immediately impart that to the next 17 weeks of the season.
110:26I'm optimistic. I am not the biggest Kyler Murray fan over the last few years.
110:31He would drop his eyes. He would abandon plays a bit too often.
110:34To me, that comes down to like some of trust in, you know, what he was coached to do, trust that the play is going to actually work.
110:42And I hope he trusts it because even talents like Nick Mullins that are far, far, far less skilled than Kyler Murray
110:49would hit their back foot in the face of pressure, throw over the middle for 17 yards over and over and over again.
110:55And if you just trust KOC to go with the football or the play is orchestrated to go to based on the coverage, good things happen.
111:03So I really hope that that's the case here in week one against his Packers defense.
111:07That's probably the weakest it's going to be all season long without Michael Parsons on it.
111:12And so hopefully that, you know, allows Kyler Murray to say, I'm going to stick in this pocket, stick to this spot
111:18and not worry about this pass rush and the green or white jerseys around me.
111:22All right. So there you have it. If you've got a lineup dilemma, trade debate or league controversy, the fantasy hotline is open all season long.
111:30So send us your toughest questions and we might just feature them in an upcoming episode.
111:34And that is going to do it for us today here on the show.
111:38Thanks to our friends over at Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL who are here all season long celebrating the
111:45passion traditions and unforgettable moments that make football America's obsession.
111:48And I'm absolutely obsessed with this preview show with Josh Norris.
111:51And I'm also obsessed, Josh, with our Sunday lineup for you guys throughout the NFL season.
111:55We got fantasy football in the morning with me, Boone, Hayden and Josh bigger, longer than ever.
112:00Okay. So you can find that right here on the YouTube channel at 10 30 AM Eastern.
112:05All right. Be here for all of the hours, all the way up until kickoff.
112:09It's going to be absolutely electric. Can't wait to be driving the bus on that one for at least the first part
112:16of it before it turns into a full social fest, you know, with Josh and Hayden doing all the doing the doing the hard work.
112:23Okay. You guys will be taking questions. I'm like, good luck with that.
112:26All right. Then Josh and Hayden recap show with me and Ray Garvin as well.
112:31Plus the Sunday night football fantasy nightcap with me.
112:33Yes. Hayden is not going to be able to join me with that one because he's going to be on the football
112:40301 live stream with Nate after Sunday night football.
112:42I mean, Josh, that is a packed Sunday slate right there.
112:45Yeah. I mean, Sunday night is one of the true game by game recaps.
112:49So if you miss certain contests that your fancy players are in, you have to tune into that game by game recaps show.
112:56We will have the best one in the industry bar none.
112:59Each of us assign certain games. And so we will give you why XYZ player had this many yards or disappointed.
113:05So tune into that for sure. Tune into that for sure.
113:08It's the Norris guarantee best one in the entire industry.
113:11And then when you wake up on Monday morning, we're going to have every single one of the games covered for you.
113:17Obviously with those on this audio feed plus. Yeah, again, the Sunday night football recap.
113:22And of course, we'll have the panic meter show as well.
113:25So Sundays ahead. My God, it is week one.
113:27We've got football. We've got shows. We'll see you all then.
113:31Until then, we are out.

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