0:00Big show for you here today, Yahoo Fantasy Forecast was presented by Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL.
0:06All season long, Toyota is celebrating the passion, traditions, and unforgettable moments that make football America's obsession from fantasy football to every kickoff rivalry and Sunday ritual.
0:13Like I said, it's a big show here on this one.
0:17Hayden Winks joins me off the top to recap.
0:19Niners, Rams, ton to get into from what was a pretty surprising and decisive San Francisco 49ers.
0:24Win over the LA Rams halfway across the freaking world over there in Australia.
0:28We cover everything you need to know from both teams, including Kalen Black's role.
0:32That's got to be the biggest story in fantasy coming out of that game.
0:36We deep dive on that and why we actually kind of think this makes a lot of sense for the San Francisco 49ers.
0:43Sorry about your fantasy teams, but it does make sense.
0:45And frankly, your fantasy teams are going to be fine.
0:48We explain that in the show. Then Josh Norris hops on with me to unpack six key questions heading into the week
0:55one slate and look at some games that maybe you're overlooking.
0:58All right. But might have some significant fantasy football storylines.
1:01Which wide receivers see the biggest change in their usage?
1:04Thanks to new play callers and new teams. We dive into that and a ton of your questions at the end of the show.
1:10It's a packed one. All that and more come up on today's show.
1:14Let's get into it. What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
1:17Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast Nightcap. And it is a hell of an evening to talk ball.
1:22And joining me to do just that, to recap 49ers, 27 Rams, 7.
1:26It is my guy, Hayden Winks. Hayden, what's going on, man?
1:29Sleepy games. Long flight. Yeah, I'm sure we got plenty to talk about with this one.
1:34Just, yeah, I can't believe that was the Rams showing tonight.
1:37Pathetic. Yeah, pretty pathetic stuff. Okay. As usual, we're going to start the nightcap.
1:41We will get to it. I do usually want to lead off the team that wins the football game.
1:46But I just have to address this nonsense with the Rams getting there.
1:50Freaking 24 hours ahead of time. What are we talking about?
1:53Okay. I'm not here to make excuses for how they played all game.
1:57Like, I'm not going to do the typical NFL media carries the water for the Rams.
2:02Like, oh, don't worry. It'll be fine. I do want to hesitate, like, making big picture takeaways from the Los Angeles Rams about this game because of this.
2:10Simply because, Hayden, it is nonsense that they're like, let me get there 24 hours ahead of time coming off a 15-hour flight halfway across the freaking world.
2:18I mean, this was a silly idea beforehand, and it looks even worse in hindsight.
2:22It does look worse. I was just looking at it.
2:25This was the first game where Miles Garrett had not had a pressure since 2018, week 10.
2:30So we're talking about a freak of nature, and even this was too much for him.
2:34Apparently, he got one at the very end of the game, but I still count that stat as the point of, this is just ridiculous.
2:41Even Miles Garrett didn't seem to be himself. That's all I need to know.
2:45I don't need any sleep studies, any of that nonsense.
2:48I don't care about the science right now. I only care about anecdotes, and that's a great anecdote.
2:53That's a great stat that Miles Garrett doesn't even have a pressure in this game.
2:58I mean, come on. I will say, and we can use this to transition to the San Francisco 49ers here.
3:03I thought they had a great game plan all night long for limiting that Rams defense.
3:08One of the most interesting stats from the entire game, I thought, was from Sumer Live, had this 32.4% screen rate for
3:14the San Francisco 49ers in this game. That is 21.2% over the NFL average.
3:18I mean, they were just getting that ball. They spent all that extra time there, did the San Francisco 49ers, adjusting their body clocks.
3:25How much of that time was spent on installing screens?
3:28Because that was a clear emphasis point for Shanahan and the boys on the other side of this.
3:33Average time to throw was just 2.1 seconds for Brock Purdy here.
3:37So it's just a ridiculous performance by the 2.7 time to throw there for the 49ers.
3:41Yeah, they got everyone kind of involved. Christian McCaffrey in the screening game.
3:45George Kittle initially. George Kittle only played 44% of the dropbacks in this game.
3:49I think that's totally fine here. Debo Samuel's screen game and then Brock Purdy at the right moments was buying some time
3:55stepping into throws or scramble the ground for a first down.
3:58So they played energized. Everyone seemed to be going.
4:01Christian McCaffrey, that was probably the most burst I've seen him.
4:04Obviously, that would be a big storyline here. But just in general, the 49ers, I was like, this might be one of
4:10the slowest offenses in the NFL this year. And then tonight, they looked lightning quick.
4:15It's a great point. Yeah, they looked fast. They looked explosive.
4:18Not the team that I thought would look fast and explosive.
4:21If you were just saying like, hey, L.A. Rams, San Francisco 49ers in the year 2026 on a neutral site or whatever,
4:27I would have expected to say the Rams were the faster, more explosive team.
4:31That was definitely not the case tonight. And, you know, on the other side of the ball for the Niners, they did
4:38kind of get pushed around up front. Like I thought the best thing that the Rams did all night was their offensive
4:44line was really moving people in the run game.
4:46But other than that, this was a team that was flying around, certainly on offense.
4:51Good note on George Kittle. I would expect that to go up the route percentage over the course of time.
4:56But, you know, it's just like the hundredth reminder about football players that, yes, the goal is not be active in week one.
5:03The goal is be yourself sooner than later. But I don't know how sooner or later that will be for George Kittle.
5:09Yeah, I think just the fact that he was out there, I think is a win.
5:14But I think that I'm at the point with George Kittle.
5:17And I think we all, everyone at Yahoo ranked him somewhere in like around the 15 to 18 range coming into this week.
5:24I think you kind of just have to park him there until he's, you know, 75, 80 percent of the routes.
5:30I think that could take like a month or so.
5:33This is a big win for the 49ers. Obviously, the tiebreakers and all this stuff for the division, like this is a very important game.
5:40And then hopefully they're going to kind of slow play this.
5:43And then by the end of the season, George Kittle looks like himself.
5:47But I think that this could take a couple of weeks here.
5:50And in the meantime, Christian McCaffrey spammed underneath and Mike Evans, I thought, had an awesome game.
5:55It wasn't even just the touchdowns. Like you talked about some of these out outbreakers with Mike Evans.
6:00I thought that he looked pretty, pretty, pretty quick.
6:03Yeah, Mike Evans was looking great getting separation at the top of the routes.
6:07And I mean, the touchdown that he had and even some of the receptions on the outbreakers, it's like I think I texted this to the producers.
6:14I feel like Mike Evans is going to be able to do that until he's 40 years old.
6:19Obviously, he's not going to play football until he's 40 years old.
6:23But what's that? It's just being bigger and having longer arms than everybody else.
6:27That's still a pretty cool thing for Mike Evans here.
6:30So I said this. And obviously, if you're listening to the audio version of this, you're going to hear me say this
6:36to Josh later on in the show as we were handling some lineup questions.
6:40And somebody asked something about Jeremiah Love versus Mike Evans.
6:43I'm like, you know, it's tough to play. It's tough to play the wide receiver over the running back in the flex.
6:49I get that. But if you drafted Mike Evans and you weren't starting him in this game, what was the point of drafting Mike Evans?
6:56Like this is the healthiest he's going to be.
6:59I mean, hopefully I'm wrong about that. Hopefully he's healthy for all 17 games and the whole deal.
7:04But this is the healthiest, freshest he's going to be.
7:07Barely practiced in training camp, which he said was part of the deal.
7:11And, you know, I got to say, looked pretty good doing it.
7:14And the other surprising part of this, Hayden, was that it wasn't just big X receiver routes on the outside.
7:20They were getting him in the slot on some of these quick out routes you mentioned, some quick slants as well.
7:26I thought that was really encouraging for Mike. And it was kind of Demarcus Robinson who was more of that vertical X receiver presence in this game.
7:34And that kind of difference right there where he's scribbling.
7:36And then when scribbling leaves, then it's Demarcus Robinson.
7:39And maybe that's the injury that kind of unlocks Mike Evans not having more of that static role.
7:44And maybe he kicks inside, has a little more creativity because I think that's what scribbling was going to offer.
7:50And obviously Demarcus Robinson does what he did with the Rams, which is every fifth week scores a long touchdown on a big post route.
7:57Obviously, the quarters beater over the top. So I'm curious about Demarcus Robinson.
8:01Like I'm assuming scribbling is going to be out for quite a while here getting carded off.
8:06And we don't know if it's an Achilles or an ankle injury.
8:09I hope it was an ankle injury because he left with an ankle injury.
8:13I thought he kind of rolled it. Hopefully, it's not the Achilles.
8:16But when your cleat is off, you're getting carded away.
8:19You assume that this is going to be an IR stint for Deshaun Stribbling.
8:23Demarcus Robinson and Debo Samuel, like these guys are going to be like interesting enough for fantasy purposes as Kittle kind of gets ramped up.
8:30And even Mike Evans was not playing every single snap in this game.
8:34So I think Debo Samuel obviously stock up 48 yards and a touchdown.
8:38I think that in the deepest leagues, I do think that Demarcus Robinson could end up being a little bit frisky.
8:44Yeah, the stribbling one is tough. And I know it's like not much of a consolation prize for folks who started stribbling right away.
8:51He did lead the team in snaps at the wide receiver position when he left.
8:55It was very clear he was going to be a big part of this operation.
8:59Obviously, he didn't have any production in this game, which is what all people care about in fantasy football.
9:05So it is what it is. It's really unfortunate.
9:07And yeah, as we're taping this right now, we're live at 1133 Eastern.
9:11We don't have an update on what the injury was.
9:14I mean, they called it an ankle injury. He did, as you say, he rolled it.
9:19It was like two non-contact plays essentially for stribbling.
9:21And the second one looked pretty troubling. That looked calf to me, but I'm just a goofball at home, not a doctor.
9:27Well, I will say that for the 49ers, I think part of the problem with their injuries, it's like obviously it's not just a substation.
9:35We're in Australia here, but they do rush some players back from injuries.
9:38And like this was one where stribbling was like literally just being evaluated.
9:42And then they rushed him back out there and he was out there for just I believe it was just a couple plays before the non-contact.
9:49So yeah, I mean, hopefully if they set back to that ankle injury and this, you know, this is some version of
9:56an ankle sprain, but man, you just don't know.
9:58Okay. So I think we all expected to come out of this game talking about that day to rookie drafted for the San Francisco 49ers.
10:05But the biggest fantasy football story coming out of this game, we've buried the lead here is Kalen Black in what was
10:12essentially a split with Christian McCaffrey in this game, which I don't know that anybody projected going into it.
10:17But I certainly don't think that was, you know, kind of what we expected when if you took Christian McCaffrey like very early in your fantasy drafts.
10:25But 14 carries for Kalen Black, 10 carries for Christian McCaffrey, dead 50-50 split in terms of the running back touches.
10:31If you look at routes run, it was McCaffrey, 56% of the routes, 36% for Kalen Black, 10 routes here to 18 as Michael F.
10:38Florio is showing us on the screen. So again, Hayden, I don't think that was projected by anybody, but am I off
10:44base and thinking this is actually completely logical and 100% makes sense for this team to do?
10:49Well, back in May, Shanahan straight up said, I do not want McCaffrey to be used that way.
10:54And I think everyone at the time was like, and I think this is fair is what you always say that it's not going to happen.
11:02Easier said than done. And then in the entire training camp, and then I love the preseason, Kalen Black has just been
11:08talked about as somebody that's like a real player.
11:11And I know that he wasn't everyone's favorites because he's an older player and he wasn't that productive, but his tape was
11:17good in college and they draft him in the third round.
11:20And guess what? Third round running backs typically play a little bit.
11:24And guess what? Watching the second half of those Christian McCaffrey runs out of halftime.
11:28He seemed pissed off and he was actually moving the ball on the ground.
11:32And I think it was his first game since like 2013, where he actually averaged over 6.8 yards per carry on 10 plus carries like that.
11:39He has never done that in years. And Christian McCaffrey like looked a little bit better there.
11:44I think for the fantasy purposes, I think while this is not great, obviously it would be better if he just ran
11:51the ball those 14 times that Kalen Black ran it.
11:53But he still caught a ton of passes. I'm guessing at the goal line it more times than not will still be
12:00Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers just hung. What is it?
12:0327 points on the defense that everyone kind of believes could be a top three defense in the NFL.
12:08I thought the offensive line looked pretty dang good here against a formidable front.
12:12So if the 49ers who I think I was at least saying like maybe they're gonna be closer to the 10th best
12:18offense in the NFL because there's too many question marks in the skill group.
12:22If they're gonna be back to first, second, third, even in this kind of weird rotation, I still think that Christian McCaffrey could be a first round player.
12:30I think I agree with your conclusion there on that.
12:33And yeah, I linked to your tweet in the piece that I'm writing because I love content so much.
12:39I love to do podcasts and I love to write too.
12:42I just absolutely love it. I linked to your tweet that you had in May where you had this quote from Kyle
12:48Shanahan said, quote, I want him to have more juice referencing Christian McCaffrey.
12:52I want him to be fresher. He doesn't have to take that beating when it's unnecessary.
12:56I'm hoping we can have some other guys step up more this year so you don't feel like you need him on
13:03the field every play and I'm totally with you that I understand if people are skeptical of that because Kyle Shanahan, it's
13:09like he can't quit mashing the McCaffrey button over and over again.
13:12And I understand it because McCaffrey, like since he has arrived in 2022 to the San Francisco 49ers, he just brings everything to life.
13:19What he does as a receiver, how he can run from every concept, like his gravity as a player just opens things up for all these other guys.
13:27So I get it why, you know, Kyle Shanahan play caller who obviously thinks very highly of his scheme as he should
13:34just like, I can't not have this guy on the football field because he quite literally takes my playbook from 98th percentile to 99th.
13:40And that last step really matters quite a bit.
13:43That being said, I have not been able to get it out of my head that McCaffrey described the 2025 football season
13:49as the hardest year of his life. And it wasn't just all about football, you know, it was about other stuff, but
13:56it also makes a lot of sense that he's coming off 480 intended touches last year.
14:00And I've quoted this stat a lot, 480 intended touches last year, regular season playoffs combined.
14:05That is the fourth most for a running back in a single season since the year 2000.
14:10And if you look at the list and again, I linked to this in the piece that's going to be up tomorrow morning.
14:16The other guys at the top, like it's Barkley in 2024, but the rest of them are like 2014 DeMarco Murray, Eddie
14:22George in 2000, Arian Foster 2012, Larry Johnson 2006, Edron James 2000.
14:26I'm on green 2003. I mean, this is like, doesn't happen in the modern NFL anymore.
14:30And you felt it from an efficiency standpoint too, with McCaffrey, like you mentioned the yards per carry, but last year among
14:3733 running backs and had 150 carries on the year, he was 28th in yards after contact per rush.
14:42He was 23rd in EPA per rush and a percentage of carries that went for 10 plus yards, 28th out of 33 backs.
14:49Like there wasn't a lot of juice there. So getting a guy in Kalen Black who I really warmed up to the
14:55idea of Kalen Black being this exact guy when, you know, shout out to James code who does some running back charting for us at reception perception.
15:03He described Kalen Black as quote, a viable workman like player who quote, when you need to, when you go through the
15:09charting, all he does is give you positive plays.
15:12Like not a lot of flash, not a lot of big plays, but just keeps the ball churning.
15:17And I mean, that's exactly what this guy was tonight.
15:20Right. So I think we're going to continue. I don't know if we'll see this exact split going forward, but shoot, especially
15:26in a week one game halfway across the fricking world.
15:29And you got a long season ahead of you where you want to go to the playoffs and win the Superbowl and the whole deal.
15:36Like I'm advising people to not panic about this coming out of week one because it was logical.
15:41It was sensible, sensible. And even if it continues, like we want McCaffrey here for a long time, not just a good
15:47time in the first game of the season. Yeah.
15:50I mean, this would prevent McCaffrey from having one of those like legendary seasons because I don't think that I'm going to
15:56be ranking him outside like the top 10 running backs next, uh, next week here.
16:01I mean, eight targets like really hard to, to, to come by.
16:04And this team is going to be projected for a bunch of points based off how they looked in this game.
16:10I would put, uh, Caitlin black is like, he's starting to look a little Blake Coromy.
16:15I was looking at exactly what the split was.
16:17The rotation was, uh, on third downs, obviously Christian McCaffrey, I think it was like 10 of 12 snaps there.
16:23That makes sense. But on first and second down, it was a near split.
16:27And that's kind of what Blake Coromy and Kyron Williams have been doing where what either in long distances or they're trailing
16:33Kyron Williams will play a little bit more, but for the most part, they were going drive by drive.
16:39That's what they did today. And then Caitlin black and Christian McCaffrey, they might be pretty even in carries this year.
16:45And then obviously Christian McCaffrey will have literally a hundred more targets than he will.
16:49But if CMC goes down, like how confident are we that Caitlin black would be an RV one or somewhere near that in fantasy?
16:56I would already feel pretty confident in that. So I think like him versus tank Bigsby, him versus, uh, almost every other
17:02handcuff in, uh, in fantasy right now. I think that he would be at the very top of the list.
17:08He's like somebody, uh, maybe I wouldn't start him necessarily next week, but he would be close to it.
17:13And I think that he's going to be someone that we have to be very aggressive on the waiver wire for.
17:19Yeah. This is why, uh, I put him in 144th overall, like just at the end of like, right at the end
17:26of my top one 50 from a fantasy draft standpoint, cause he was looking like one of those guys.
17:31I mean, like if Amari and Hampton went down, like Keaton Mitchell wouldn't become that guy, you know, but like Caitlin black
17:37would, if you're looking at splitting hair for those late round running backs, do you know, but it's okay.
17:43Just, just brass tacks perspective, brass task perspective here with Chris McCaffrey.
17:46He touched the ball or he had 18 opportunities, targets, rush attempts tonight.
17:50He had 88 yards from scrimmage and I'm with you not ranking him outside the top 10 running guys.
17:55Do you know who the 49ers play in week two and week three?
17:59I have no idea. The Miami dolphins and the Arizona Cardinals.
18:02So I'm going to go ahead and say, actually, we're ranking Christian McCaffrey in the top five.
18:07Yeah. My, my concern level on this, if we're doing some early panic meter is that like no panic.
18:13I mean, maybe if you're hoping that he has that legendary season, his range of outcomes, perhaps not, but regardless, I really
18:19don't see a lot of reason to panic for the McCaffrey stuff.
18:22And again, because I think this is a logical thing for him to not get grounded in the dust at 30 years
18:29old with a bazillion carries and everything on his resume.
18:31Let's, let's flip it to the other side here.
18:34Uh, what are your notes on the LA Rams?
18:37And again, a very disappointing loss that I do think has to have some context because of the sleepy time nature of the game.
18:43But just overall, what are your notes on this team?
18:46Matthew Stafford, a lot more passes kind of just directly to 49ers players.
18:50Not all of them were intercepted, but there was definitely a couple interceptable passes along the way.
18:55It seemed like the 49ers knew that these dig routes were coming and they were all over it.
19:00There was like one where it's a defense pass interference.
19:03Puka did have a nice completion or two over the middle, but it did seem like the 49ers like went out of their way to stop that.
19:11Uh, in particular, I thought the ground game for the Rams was decent, but like last year it was like the best
19:17success rate to running back carries of the decade.
19:19It did not feel quite as good. I thought the offensive line wasn't quite as potent.
19:24I think that was maybe the biggest takeaway for me, because if you were listening to the 49ers coverage going into this,
19:30they had no idea what they're going to get out of Nick Bosa.
19:34Cause he's like barely coming off of his injuries.
19:37He's like, so like rehabbing through it. Uh, they don't have Michael Williams.
19:40They just lost a defensive tackle. Like they were like rotating some bodies out there and they were still able to get some pressure on Matthew Stafford.
19:48So, uh, last year the Rams offensive line was awesome.
19:51This game didn't feel quite as good. And obviously that has ripple effects.
19:55They can't pick up a bunch of explosives on the ground, which they did not in this game.
20:00Uh, it's just going to make everything feel a little bit tighter.
20:03Niners defense wise. Uh, this was Raheem Morris's first game and obviously got to go back and like watch the tape to
20:10see what they did from a coverage standpoint, but there were parts of the game, especially early on where it just like, Oh yeah, you know what?
20:17Having Fred Warner, uh, makes quite a big difference.
20:20Having Bosa back makes quite a big difference. And those two guys just, you know, barely were a part of the proceedings
20:26last year, especially towards the end of the season when this defense kind of completely fell apart.
20:31So, um, this is one of those times where you got to remember like last season's data does not matter when you
20:37get two real big difference makers back. And I certainly think from the coverage standpoint, like you mentioned just shutting down those dig routes and everything.
20:45When you have a linebacker like Fred Warner, that's going to make a big difference there.
20:49Also throughout Osa Diggie Zua, their new defensive tackle, he had an awesome game in this one.
20:54And like, that's like another little cherry on top piece at the 49ers defensive line did not have last year.
21:00So like, this was like huge, I mean, obviously huge stock up for the 49ers, but I think in like more, you
21:06know, repeatable ways, like if they're actually gonna get some pressure this year up front, like that's going to change their entire defense there.
21:13And I think for, uh, some of the biggest question marks we had for like the Rams fantasy players, it was still
21:19the drive by drive rotation between, uh, Kyron and Blake, Blake Coram at the first, uh, uh, drive out of halftime.
21:25It does go back to Kyron Williams, obviously Kyron Williams, uh, scores the goal line touchdown, but that could be Blake Coram.
21:32If it was his drive as well, uh, Kyron's going to play a little bit more in passing situations when they're trailing.
21:38But for the most part, it was kind of at the same drive by drive rotation from last year.
21:43And hopefully the Rams look a lot better because if it is that same drive by drive rotation and there's averaging, let's
21:50say 26 points a game instead of 30 points a game, like those are the things that kind of matter for Kyron,
21:56maybe being more of an RB two than an RB one, not, not hitting the full panic meter yet.
22:01I just because you said like, this is, you know, they chose to fly out there the, the, the day of, um,
22:08but I do think it's like something to monitor.
22:10Yeah, definitely something to monitor there. And, you know, it kind of is like the worst outcome for both guys because, you
22:17know, there's no, there doesn't appear to be a big change for Blake Coram.
22:21Like there was talk out of training camp that, oh, they might get Coram more involved and, you know, just really maybe
22:27make this more of a dead even split. And again, stats wise is pretty close in the ground game, but a dead
22:33even split, you know, is it's, it's this Blake Coram time to get more explosive plays there.
22:38Uh, maybe that wasn't the case necessarily. I love how you described Terrence Ferguson in the outline.
22:43Um, Terrence Ferguson is a thing, but also isn't a thing, uh, explained for the people there.
22:48Well, he, at one point was playing like 75% of the routes that kind of scaled that back at the end off
22:54to go watch the game, uh, again tomorrow and figure out exactly why that was happening.
22:59And then his one target was, I think it was that big downfield shot.
23:03I think like on a fourth down situation where, you know, like maybe Terrence Ferguson shouldn't be in the two, two out
23:09role, uh, two, two out well role is kind of fun, but like maybe that's like, you know, overthinking it kind of like the, the flight issue here.
23:17Um, he, he ran around like half the dropbacks.
23:20That's probably not enough to like really care about it.
23:22It's still Colby Parkinson out there more times than not.
23:25And then obviously Davis Allen, Allen left, Tyler Higbee was out there for, for a moment.
23:30Um, so it wasn't like exactly the Terrence Ferguson, uh, game we were hoping for, but he is playing more than he did last year.
23:37Yeah. There was a couple of leagues where I was rostering Terrence Ferguson through this game just to see what happened.
23:43And in Yahoo, you can drop players even after they play in the early games, uh, probably going to go ahead and
23:49like drop Terrence Ferguson for a defense or something like that.
23:52You know, just was kind of doing the exploratory things good enough to see from a role standpoint.
23:58Uh, maybe it's coming down the stretch, but yeah, again, I don't want to take many big sweeping takeaways from the Rams
24:04offense just because this was always going to be regardless of outcome, a little bit of a bizarre game for them.
24:10Uh, but regardless, you know, it, I understand people coming out of this game being like, that's the Superbowl favorite.
24:16That was like plus five 50 to win the Superbowl.
24:18That was this team. Uh, I understand the reactions there.
24:21Uh, but you know, we'll see what this team looks like once we actually get back into the, into their own country
24:28and we're not, you know, taking 15 hour flights, five seconds before the game starts.
24:32Any other, uh, takeaways you want to get off here about the Rams?
24:36Uh, at the goal line, there's a couple of sequences where Pukinaku was out there as the lone receiver.
24:41Um, that wasn't always the case last year. Obviously Devante Adams had all those gold line touchdowns.
24:46I think he averaged like, uh, like two yards per, uh, um, perception in the red zone last year.
24:51Cause like so many of his catches were like literally at the goal line.
24:55Um, but with Puka, uh, if he's going to be getting some more goal line, uh, looks and he got tackled at
25:02the goal line, like that's how Pukinaku could go to like the absolute moon and fantasy.
25:06So, uh, I would say slight stock down on Devante Adams, uh, because he's kind of, maybe he's going to be losing that role.
25:13At least it'd be closer to 50, 50 rather than like Devante Adams.
25:17It was like a two for one special, uh, in favor of him last year in that area.
25:22And, uh, I didn't see that tonight. Yeah. That's definitely something to keep your eye on because if he loses that, then
25:28I'm like, what's the, what's the upside for Devante Adams fantasy football.
25:32And again, another thing, it's kind of tough to get out of your head is the fact that they were super willing
25:38to trade Devante Adams before they backed out of the AJ Brown trade, uh, sweepstakes because of the medicals.
25:43They're also, it's still weird again, that they added no other playmakers beyond that.
25:47That's again, another thing that's going to be a little difficult.
25:51Well, they traded for two, two out. Well though, when you know, the dolphins were ready to cut him.
25:56So we'll, maybe we'll see two, two out. Well, on the two, two out.
26:00Well roll, uh, next week starting that. So that's at least something on my radar when we're talking about this team being everybody's clear cut favorite.
26:08Do they really have a counter punch beyond Puka Nakua in the passing game?
26:12I would say I don't come out of week one feeling like positive, uh, about that one positive note though, to give
26:18off before we leave Hayden, uh, is that Kyle Shanahan said that Dijon Stribbling had an injured ankle added that the rookies Achilles was intact.
26:25So, and the Achilles is something that they can test for right away, uh, on, on game day.
26:30They can test that there. So that does make you feel better that, you know, the season might not be over for
26:36Dijon Stribbling, but I mean, we're dealing with an AJ Brown high ankle sprain right now where it's the, you know, it's
26:43a three as Nate keeps saying, it's an, it's a, it's a six week injury.
26:47You can say, oh, it's a three week, this, that, and the other, like this guy's not going to be the same
26:53until six weeks from the moment he has the high ankle sprain.
26:57I don't know if that's the injury for Stribbling, but if it is, uh, it is just a real bummer for him
27:03to get off to this time to start in his rookie season.
27:06And if you look at my ankle, I had high ankle sprain and my ankle is still not the same out there.
27:13So it's, uh, I, I agree. I don't like when wide receivers return too early from these high ankle sprains.
27:18Um, so hopefully that's all it is. There's no fracture or anything like that, but, uh, no torn Achilles.
27:24The strip club will come back at some point.
27:26This has anyone checked on Josh. Have you, have you checked on Josh?
27:30No, I figured he was in a bad place and we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll regroup tomorrow.
27:35That's probably for the best. I think that's the respectful thing to do.
27:39All right. So when we've got Hayden, uh, comparing his high ankle sprain to NFL players, we had producer Colin talking about,
27:45you know, how tired he is during his softball games before we got on here.
27:49I think that's a good sign that the nightcap, uh, is over.
27:53Uh, so we're going to call it for this one.
27:55Really fun Thursday night game here between the Niners and the Rams.
27:59For those watching us on YouTube. Thanks for tuning in for those listening on audio.
28:03Josh Norris joins me for the rest of the show right after this quick break.
28:07What's going on everyone. I'm Matt Harmon. Welcome to the Yahoo fantasy forecast presented by Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL all season long.
28:15Toyota is celebrating the passion traditions and unforgettable moments that make football America's obsession from fantasy football to every kickoff rivalry and Sunday ritual.
28:22And Oh baby, it's a hell of a day to talk ball because we are, we're not on the precipice of week one.
28:28We are in the middle of week one. We had a game last night.
28:32We've got a game tonight, which if you're listening to this on the audio version, uh, you've already got the results of that game.
28:39But if you're joining us live on YouTube right now, which we love the folks who join us live on YouTube, we've
28:45got a ton of games to talk about that are happening this weekend and joining me to do just that, to talk a little ball.
28:53It is my good friend, Josh Norris. Josh, what's going on, buddy?
28:56First of what? 17 shows here every Thursday with you, Matt, uh, this is going to be the best one.
29:02And the next week will be better. And the next week will be better.
29:06So, uh, I'm excited to do this with you.
29:08Spoken like a real football coach there. We're just going to keep getting better and better.
29:13You know, we're going to find our identity as the, as the, uh, as the season goes on my life, Matt.
29:19Yeah. I mean, your calves at the Buffalo live event would say that that is true.
29:24I mean, you know, Josh is in the best shape of his life.
29:27We're going to play fast. We're going to be multiple.
29:30That's what this preview show is all about personnel.
29:33We're by December. We probably will be heavy personnel.
29:35Who knows? Uh, we'll, we'll see about that. Okay.
29:38Here is the structure of the show. It's going to look pretty similar to the version of what we did last year
29:44with Boone, but now we're subbing in Josh here.
29:47So it's going to be Josh's six pack of fantasy questions.
29:50That's going to be our first couple of segments.
29:52Then we will get into my three games that no one cares about, but I care about them and I'm going to
29:59make you guys care about them too. From a fantasy football perspective, then we're going to wrap it up every single week
30:05with the Toyota fantasy hotline, taking your questions on what to do with your lineups, specific bespoke questions every single week.
30:11So without further ado, let's get into Josh's six pack of fantasy questions.
30:15Just like last year, a little pop top. Yeah.
30:17Makes you want to talk some ball. Doesn't it?
30:20Josh makes you want to talk some freaking football here.
30:23I didn't know that that was coming. My question is what's in the blue drink, Matt?
30:27I mean, that's not a, my creation. That's of, of Collins creation, the blue drink.
30:32It's a mystery. We're going to find out what it is.
30:35Always a good idea. Just definitely take a drink that you don't know what's in there.
30:39Hey, we don't know what we're going to get from the week one slate here, Josh, but let's try to help the people find out.
30:47What's your first question heading into the full week one slate?
30:50So overall, these first three questions are like very team or player specific.
30:53And then we'll do the second trio of questions as almost more generic.
30:57That could be multiple answers here. So the first one here, Matt is can the Raiders even function now without Brock Bowers?
31:03And I ask this because here in week one is the easiest Raiders opponent for the opening 11 weeks against the Miami Dolphins.
31:10They are three and a half point favorites still, still here at home.
31:14And there's many layers of this. Number one, Clint Kubiak coming over from Seattle to Las Vegas.
31:19And we can all point to Brock Bowers being the focal point of what his passing attack and really receiving attack was
31:25going to be a la JSN last year. And Matt, these numbers are outrageous that JSN accounted for 36.6% of his team's
31:31receptions last year, which was only better, better, I should say, by Brandon Marshall in 2012 and Steve Smith in 2005.
31:37According to Rich Rebar, he accounted for 44% of his team's receiving yards.
31:41That's the fourth highest rate since 1990. So Matt, at least for these first two games, maybe even game three and game
31:47four, who the heck is going to account for that receiving production in Clint Kubiak's offense without Brock Bowers?
31:53My guess is it will not be nearly that concentrated between any of these fellows that are going to have to step
31:59up in the wake of the Brock Bowers injury.
32:01Man, it is crazy. That's like some old school stuff that JSN was doing last year in terms of being the one,
32:08the metronome of the passing game, dominating all of the opportunity and all the results.
32:12Yeah, I don't think anybody here is equipped to do that with the Las Vegas Raiders.
32:17Spoiler alert for the Nobody's Games of the Week segment.
32:19This game is going to come up once again.
32:22Okay. So we'll maybe mostly, I mean, how could it not, by the way?
32:26It was just like the most screaming, obvious one.
32:29So I won't talk too much on the Dolphin side of things.
32:32We'll save that for that segment here. But yeah, I mean, this is you put this really well where this might be
32:38the most winnable game on the Las Vegas Raiders schedule all season long.
32:42And man, that Dolphin secondary, Josh, is a travesty.
32:45You'd think that there can be some fantasy value hidden in here.
32:48But this is one of those injuries that there's not just an immediate replacement, right?
32:52Like nobody's going to come in here and play the Brock Bowers role.
32:56That doesn't exist within the offense. That is designed specifically for a unique player like a Brock Bowers.
33:01That being said, I actually kind of feel like the answer here will be they just play a lot more 11 personnel than they were planning on.
33:09Like the guys we're showing on the screen here right now.
33:12I mean, this might be Jack Besh's like highest route percentage of the entire year.
33:16I mean, I wanted to get in your good side because the answer truly might be Jack Besh.
33:22I mean, if you go back, everyone focused on his last couple years at TCU.
33:26But if you went back and watch his first year at LSU, he was kind of that move Joker tight end stuff,
33:32you know, and if Michael Mayer was going to be the focal point of the inline tight end stuff and you now
33:38had Brock Bowers, who was going to play a majority of the snaps in the slot or even some stuff out wide or even two tight end sets.
33:46I mean, that's not going to be Ian Thomas, right?
33:49So to me, this was the role that I was kind of hoping as a power slot ish.
33:55That Jack Besh would be drafted for. And we didn't see that at all during his rookie season.
34:00We didn't see that very much. I felt in the preseason outside that one game that Brock Bowers did not play.
34:06So, Matt, I don't want to get too in the weeds here on my first segment of my first show with you in season.
34:13But I felt like it was only right to bring up Jack Besh in that department.
34:17No, it is. And because obviously this is a Besh Bro podcast, but also, yeah, let's definitely talk about a player that
34:230.0% of human beings are going to start this week on Yahoo Fantasy.
34:27But I mean, it's but you're probably right from just a structural perspective.
34:31I do think Besh gets a good opportunity here because they are kind of analogous type talents.
34:36Honestly, as again, as a captured fan of Jack Besh's game, I hope he goes out there and has a nice game
34:42and forces them to sort of be open minded about how they can scheme this thing around because you just can't convince
34:48me that he's not one of their best 11 players on offense.
34:52I think he is or at least one of their best 12 players on offense, I should say.
34:57And I'll add that the majority of Jackson Smith and Jigba's receiving production last year came from heavier personnel look.
35:03So that would have been, you know, the funnel targets that we would have gotten with Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers on the field.
35:09Again, without Brock Bowers out there, I don't think, as you pointed out, they will want to live in this Michael Mayer, Ian Thomas world.
35:17So that is a change from Clint Kubiak in his brain all offseason constructing this offense to they're probably going to live now in 11 personnel.
35:24So doing that, and I understand like the injury happened last week or let's say he got the diagnosis of the surgery last week.
35:31And so we were just, you know, reunited with this information yesterday.
35:34But Matt, for us, maybe the timeline is a lot shorter than for them.
35:38But even building a game plan for the first two, three, four games out of thin air versus the last couple of
35:45months, I'm sure they're scrambling and getting some sleepless nights over there in the Las Vegas headquarters.
35:50No question. And it sounds like it might be a two week injury here for Bowers.
35:54That was kind of the report from this morning.
35:57So I don't expect to see him next week either.
36:00So they're going to have to have a plan here.
36:02I think before we move off this, because we've had our fun here with Jack.
36:07And look, it is definitely something I'm going to be monitoring for this offense this week.
36:11Like what we see from him. Can he earn more of a full season role?
36:16Because I think he does fit the offense well in some different ways here.
36:20I guess the two players we should talk about for, you know, the less sick pups than the sick pups who want to know about Jack.
36:27Jack Bess is Trey Tucker and Michael Mayer, because I do think from just a target perspective, they'll have some more opportunity.
36:33Those guys were probably going to be pretty heavily involved in the offense regardless.
36:37Just thoughts on Michael Mayer as like a punt play at tight end thoughts on Trey Tucker as a deep sleeper, a
36:44guy that is going to be, you know, again, involved in the offense runs some good vertical routes, which I can talk about here in a second.
36:51And obviously we'll be facing some questionable cornerbacks, shall we say?
36:54So with Michael Mayer, I think people had this wrong idea of him coming out of Notre Dame, that he was some
37:01baby grunk styling of a player in that Notre Dame in that final season built their entire passing attack around him.
37:07They were moving him around. They were getting him against the grain of offenses.
37:11They were manufacturing screens and touches for him also needed a very good job at that.
37:15So I wonder, Matt, if he now becomes the move player in this, like that is more of a possibility to me
37:22as well, because I think he has some of that in his bag and I think in any other offense.
37:27And we know he's gone through, you know, some stuff over the first couple of years of his career.
37:33But Michael Mayer has, you know, starting caliber traits in the NFL.
37:36And now he has the runway to, I think, show them off and probably the best environment that he's had so far in the league.
37:43Yeah, he had a pretty nifty move in the open field on his touchdown in the in the preseason this year.
37:49So I think we could see some more from him.
37:52I haven't ranked maybe like tight. I think like maybe tight end 13, honestly, heading into this week, which obviously, you know,
37:59it's not going to be like you got to start this guy.
38:02I said in the reaction to this news yesterday with Nate on the show that the best player that's like available in
38:08fewer than 70 percent of Yahoo leagues is like Juwan Johnson.
38:11Like he's the guy that would instantly be a great start.
38:15But I think Mayer might be my second favorite.
38:17And he's obviously much more widely available than a guy like Juwan Johnson was.
38:21So, yeah, definitely. We've seen some fantasy production from Michael Mayer when Brock Bowers has missed games.
38:26I don't mind him at all as a punt play and neither do like I mind Trey Tucker.
38:31If you're when one of these leagues that starts a bazillion wide receivers, which I am the Kings Classic League, you know,
38:37for that we drafted the Fantasy Football Expo, which, you know, we drafted it earlier than ever this year in July.
38:44So we've all had some injuries that we've had to face.
38:47And Trey Tucker is a guy because there's three starting flex spots, full point PPR.
38:51I'm starting Trey Tucker, at least in that league.
38:54That's the type of format you may have to be in to consider him.
38:58But we know what the deal is. Very boomer bust Josh, a vertical receiver against a bad secondary.
39:03But I will say this, going back and charting Trey Tucker for reception perception, his best routes are dig routes, post routes, nine routes.
39:10You know, I'm not saying he's going to be Jackson Smith and Jigba at all, but those are obviously the routes that
39:16JSN cooked on in the system last year. We've talked about this a lot, that Clint Kubiak, the last two offenses that
39:22he's taken control over, the New Orleans Saints and then the Seattle Seahawks, neither of those were expected to be among the
39:28most vertical downfield passing 15 plus yard pass catching offenses in the league.
39:32And yet, as soon as Clint Kubiak got his fingertips on them, that's exactly what they became.
39:37Right. And we can say the same thing now about the Raiders.
39:40And if anyone's going to benefit from that the most, it is going to be Trey Tucker.
39:45So we'll see if he can do it a third time here, you know, from the Saints to the Seahawks to obviously now the Raiders.
39:52But yeah, Trey Tucker is one of those players that after they gave Jalen Naylor this contract back in March or April,
39:59I thought, OK, well, that's going to be the player that they flow through with the outside breakers and all that type of stuff.
40:06But then every single beat writer, all training camp long, just kept saying Trey Tucker is the wide receiver one.
40:11He is the wide receiver one. And he actually might have to be the number one pass catcher now since it's so much in flux.
40:19Yeah. And in a weird way, Naylor and Tucker do complement each other well, because I think Tucker is better on those in breakers.
40:25And as you said, Naylor is better on the outbreaker.
40:28So it's not hopeless for the Raiders. There's definitely some things you can squint at here.
40:33But I think if it's going to come together well, it probably will be in this week for them because the schedule gets much more difficult after that.
40:41They go to Los Angeles in week two. They go to New Orleans in week three.
40:45They got the Chiefs. They got the Patriots on the schedule.
40:49I mean, it's brutal. The Rams doesn't really lighten up again until week eight with the New York Jets.
40:54So Kirk Cousins, if you're going to enjoy your time in the sun as the Raiders starting quarterback, this is the week to do it.
41:01We'll talk a little about the backfield when we get back to this game somehow later on in the show.
41:07But for now, Josh, let's get to your second question heading into this week.
41:11So what's the Packers plan for their backfield? I ask this for a number of reasons.
41:15The first, let's just stick to on the field with Josh Jacobs.
41:19He was sixth in carries inside of the 10 yard line last season.
41:23If you go back to 2024, he was first in the NFL in carries inside of the 10 yard line.
41:28That resulted in a combined 24 touchdowns, 24 on just those carries inside the 10 yard line.
41:33Guess what, Matt? Touchdowns matter a lot for us in fantasy football.
41:37In fact, they matter the most in fantasy football.
41:39So who gets that work, right? Is it going to be Marshawn Lloyd now who has seven career touches in the NFL
41:45and has been broken every single season? Is it Caleb Johnson who was sent to the shadow realm after one kickoff return
41:52at the Pittsburgh Steelers and was sent to this Green Bay Packers offense for, you know, a late round pick?
41:58Or maybe the answer, Matt, is do they just pass more often?
42:01So this is the Vikings that they're playing here in week one, a team that is notoriously difficult to run against.
42:07So I'm ready to make sweeping conclusions about what this Packers team is going to do for as long as Josh Jacobs is sidelined after week one.
42:15Interesting. I think I would advise you to not make sweeping conclusions coming out of this game here because I think those tongue in shape, of course.
42:22Yeah, I think this matchup is really difficult to get a handle on with the running backs because I mean, these are
42:29two teams obviously that play each other a lot.
42:31Brian Flores makes life. He makes life hell on like running backs who cannot pass protect.
42:36I mean, if you've watched Jameer Gibbs against this team over the last few years, like if you're going to lob one
42:42critique at Jameer Gibbs game, it's pass protection. And he put Jameer Gibbs into the blender at one point last year.
42:48I think that's I think that might be the game that got Johnny Morton like officially thrown to the curb as the
42:54play caller for the Lions last year. So I would be shocked, honestly, if Marshawn Lloyd is out there, you know, for a lot of snaps past protecting.
43:02I think we're going to see a ton of Chris Brooks in this game.
43:06And I ultimately think, Josh, that your point about them just passing the ball more.
43:11I think this could be a real high pass rate, overexpected high pass rate in general game for the Green Bay Packers
43:17because that's kind of what they want to do seemingly this season.
43:20I saw a really good quote from Mike Nuggets NFL, you know, a little coach speak account there.
43:26So today, Mike, God, Mike and Matt LaFleur. Now I'm going to just trip over that for like the rest of time here.
43:32But Matt LaFleur was essentially saying we got to keep our three main receivers on the field for as many snaps as
43:39possible, which I like that because that's been the way I've been approached this receiver room this year.
43:44And that's my guess is what we're going to see in week one is those guys on the field a lot.
43:50Yeah, just to repeat that quote, Matt LaFleur says, quote, I think really what it's going to be is it's going to
43:56be more opportunity for everybody in that room. Or should I say for our three main guys and we need to get
44:02them out there for as many plays as humanly possible.
44:05I don't think he's ever talked about main guys in that receiver room over the last few years, you know?
44:11So that was it like 12 months ago? He said no, that was more than 12 months ago.
44:16But he said, like the thought of a number one receiver makes me want to vomit or something like, yeah, this is
44:22a pretty big change of tone, Matt. Yeah. And then he says, I think all three of those guys are difference makers,
44:29but we need them out on the field for as many snaps as possible.
44:33So what that screams is 11 personnel versus maybe the 12 stuff that they ran last year.
44:37And we finally know the three wide receiver names, Matt.
44:40It's why I've been relentlessly drafting Christian Watson this summer.
44:43I thought I think gold was one of the most mispriced players, even if I didn't love his individual profile.
44:49And to your point, like the Vikings and how they sugar the A gaps and bring all these different looks from every single alignment.
44:56And that forces, you know, the running back to stay in with protection.
45:00I mean, Minnesota has allowed the fewest fancy points and yards per touch to running backs last season.
45:05And they've been even better than that in previous years.
45:08So if it is Chris Brooks out there, who is almost like a glorified fullback running back hybrid, that is terrible news for Marshawn Lloyd.
45:15But maybe things will get better here in week two.
45:18Yeah. Marshawn Lloyd feels like a destined player for the week one panic meter with Boone after this coming slate of games.
45:24And my advice would be like, again, listen to this segment here and see that this probably just is not going to
45:30be a big Marshawn Lloyd week, a big Marshawn Lloyd game.
45:33But that doesn't change any of the ideas that like, OK, he might go into week two and be the feature back
45:40for this team or whatever close to like a feature back type of player Marshawn Lloyd can even be in the NFL.
45:46Oh, man, I dropped so much fab in a dynasty league, Josh, where, you know, obviously, for the most part, there's never
45:52anybody on the waiver wire because Marshawn Lloyd is just like sitting out there on the waiver wire.
45:57And I dropped a ton of fab to get him.
46:00And now I have him and Jonathan Brooks on the same roster.
46:04So like maybe one, maybe one healthy body altogether on that one.
46:07But they play the Jets and then the Falcons in week two and week three.
46:11So definitely, I think some patience with Marshawn Lloyd might be advisable here.
46:15Yeah. Marshawn Lloyd, I'm just looking at consensus rankings is out there is running back 28.
46:20And that is ahead of Rico Dattle and Chuba Hubbard.
46:22I think I would just flat out put Chuba Hubbard ahead of Marshawn Lloyd if you guys are worried about your flex
46:29spots and considering that dynamic out there. Yeah, I mean, this I can't wait for this team.
46:34And the other part is, you know, the reworked, repatched Packers offensive line.
46:37I mean, look at this timing. God, the producers are on top of it.
46:41I know Jordan Morgan has been banged up a lot.
46:44I mean, it's it's pretty amazing that this Packers team, we think we know what they are.
46:49And yet here we are going through a whole bunch of changes and we might see like the biggest spike or one
46:55of the biggest spikes with them and like the Buffalo Bills in terms of going up to neutral pass rate and neutral drop back rate.
47:03Yes, it should be really interesting to see what this team looks like.
47:06I am. They're one of the bigger week one reveals.
47:09I'm very excited to see, which frankly is true for the offense on the other side of this, too.
47:15I'm excited to see what the Kyler Murray Minnesota Vikings situation finally looks like in real life.
47:19OK, question number three, Josh, this is another big reveal team I'm looking forward to seeing.
47:24So the Eagles were last in the NFL in terms of drives that went three and out last season.
47:29That is crazy to say out loud because I don't know if that talking point was discussed enough this summer.
47:35So the question is simple. How does Sean Manion's offense fix that?
47:39And Matt, you know, I've said it every single hour when we were together up in Buffalo, New York a couple weeks ago.
47:45This is one more reason why I say that Saquon Barkley is the most important player on the Eagles offense this year.
47:51They are four and a half point favorites against the commanders here in week one.
47:56Their best offensive line combination only played together 42% of the time last season.
48:00So getting Saquon back into gear like he was in 2024, not only is he going to reel off those explosives, but
48:06if you just give him the line of scrimmage bat, he gets you 6.6 yards per carry last season.
48:12And that's exactly what the goal is here. And that's exactly what will lead to fewer and many, many fewer three and outs in 2026.
48:19Yeah. Can we fly that three and out chart one more time on the screen here?
48:23It's crazy. It's insane. As Josh is eluding, 29% three and out rate for the Philadelphia Eagles last year.
48:29They're just ahead of, or I should say below, if you're talking about good versus bad, just below the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns.
48:36Broncos down there too. Broncos down there too. And then you got the Steelers and the Jets.
48:40Yeah. That's the company that the Eagles offense kept last year.
48:44It was not a fun watch at all last season for the Philadelphia Eagles at any point.
48:48So, I mean, I really wonder just the buzz on Sean Mannion that you hear out of the Eagles, you know, just
48:55kind of camp right now and everything is really, really strong, that he has just his pulse on what teams are doing
49:01right now, both from just like a formation from like a intense standpoint, but also like the strategy part of the game.
49:07So man, if he comes out in week one and looks like one of these wonder kid play callers, there's a lot
49:14to be excited about in this offense, especially again, because the opening slate is really, really is cushy for this entire team.
49:20And we have seen that the wonder kid play caller, either they get a head coaching job if they do a great
49:26job with the Eagles or they get fired after one season, right?
49:30It's the Shane Sykin, Kellen Moore team, especially. Yeah, correct.
49:32Versus the other guys that we don't have to mention.
49:35And now they're off into the distance. Matt, for some reason yesterday, I like packaged a couple words on Twitter and it
49:42was Josh Norris and then having fun just because I was trying to find a previous tweet.
49:47But then this one from the Eagles from September of last year, it says, quote, at halftime, Eagles have 34 total yards,
49:53negative one passing yards over six on third downs and one push push touchdown.
49:57And they're down 19 to seven at halftime. So like I understand everyone last year said as the season goes along, the
50:03Eagles are going to figure it out. They're too talented and blah, blah, blah.
50:07Well, they never did. Right. They never did. And so they made all these changes this offseason.
50:12And Matt, if they don't fix it in week one, you know, Philadelphia morning radio there on on Monday is going to be quite interesting.
50:19But I think they will. I'm with you. I think what Sean Maynard is going to bring in in terms of more
50:25under center work isn't only going to help the passing game.
50:29It's also going to help the rushing game in terms of creating more angles to attack with their best player in Saquon Barkley.
50:35Yeah, I mean, Saquon is going to be obviously a top ranked back.
50:39The commanders week one matchup to like this could be just a monster week for Saquon because I look on the other
50:45side of the ball, Josh, and you know, Nate and I kind of alluded to this yesterday.
50:50We talked about on 301 today. I think they're just going to crush the commanders offense like this defense here.
50:56They're going to be in positive game script for just the vast majority of this game.
51:00I cannot imagine like on the inverse of this and maybe I'm being hypocritical because I'm saying, you know, Sean, man, you
51:07can come out here and get off to a nice start.
51:10I do ultimately think it'll go a little bit like fast start slow down a little bit.
51:15Maybe pick back up at the end of the season for Sean Mannion, mostly just because the schedule and the way it looks on paper right now.
51:22But I think about it on the other side here.
51:25David Blau, 31 year old, promoted from the assistant quarterback coach spot to now running the whole show with less of a
51:32veteran laden offensive line, less of, you know, a quarterback obviously is adjusting.
51:35Jalen Hurts is adjusting to, but adjusting to, you know, kind of a new style here.
51:40And they got to go against Vic Fangio's defense on the other side while the Eagles are going against Dan Quinn's kind of remade unit.
51:47Yeah. And I'll bring up Dan Quinn's remade unit.
51:50I mean, if you just go look at the hour lads depth chart and I'm sure you guys have this too.
51:56It's Tim settle. It's clay von chase on Sonny styles is new.
51:59Oh, definitely. Always new. Russell Douglas is new. Nick crosses new.
52:02Ameek Robertson is new. They don't have Trey Amos out there because he's injured.
52:06Like sometimes it works when you bring in a whole bunch of new pieces like the Eagles defense did a couple of years ago.
52:13And then sometimes it takes a number of weeks and a number of weeks to, to get things right.
52:18And if the Eagles are on point, have a nice game plan that Jalen Hurts is comfortable in.
52:24And again, their offensive line plays the degree that it can, and they keep him upright.
52:28Then I'm excited for what this Eagles offense can do.
52:31Matt, I'll throw a question to you. Uh, let's say people, uh, are going through some chaos in a number of ways,
52:37uh, with their lineups, whether it be an injury that's already hit or just some uncertainty.
52:42Where are you at with like Don Tavian Wix is?
52:45Oh, brother. I knew this is where you're going.
52:47Let's, let's hear it. Let's talk about it. Uh, yeah.
52:50Devante Smith top 10 receiver for me this week.
52:53Don Tavian Wix is going to be in that range where, you know, again, you got to be a little bit desperate,
52:59but he is definitely someone that I think you can throw out here.
53:03He's going to run more routes than Makai Lemon in week one, like period.
53:07Great end of story. I'd, I'd be shocked if that did not happen.
53:11They're excited about him. They, the, not just obviously Sean Mannion, who was part of the coaching staff with Wix last year,
53:17the front office signs him to a contract extension.
53:19I know there's a lot of other people that are excited about Wix with this team.
53:24And, you know, something that I've talked about with this offense is they are kind of getting Jalen hurts comfortable in a new system.
53:31Everybody focuses on the, Oh, well, he doesn't throw over the middle of the field.
53:35He doesn't throw over the middle of the field on and on and on it goes.
53:40But Josh, a lot of what they did really well last year in green base, specifically with Dontavian Wix was they would
53:46like motion him from one side of the field into the slot in a 12 personnel look and then just run out
53:52cuts and sale concepts off play action. I think that's what we're seeing here with Wix who look, I know everybody makes
53:59fun of the separation stuff, but he can't catch the football and whatever.
54:02And I thought at times he actually kind of got a little bit overrated as a separator during his run with the
54:09green Bay Packers, but he's a, he is a good route runner.
54:12And some of his best routes to me were these out cuts.
54:15And I think that's a part of what we're going to do to get Jalen hurts comfortable.
54:20So I can see him piling up some good production in week one.
54:24So, like I said, got to be desperate from a fantasy standpoint, I guess, but I'm, I'm cautiously optimistic about Wix in the early portion of the season.
54:32Love that. And again, if they get the running game going, that changes the math in the back end, you know, that's
54:38going to convert some single high looks to bring someone else in the box.
54:42And then we get, you know, Devante Smith in isolation, Dontavian Wix in isolation.
54:46And Matt, I love myself a good, you know, post hype sleeper, because if we didn't get, you know, the instant gratification
54:53of a player, once they got hyped up all summer long, then the fancy community kind of hates them.
54:58I would love it if Dontavian Wix has like a nice four or five, six game stretch to open the season.
55:04It's all I'm asking for. At some point this summer, I know I tweeted his during August when he was getting some good reviews from training camp.
55:12I know I tweeted his rookie year reception perception charts.
55:15Like, when is it safe? When's it a safe space to start doing this again?
55:19Look there and there's the, there's the, there's the tweet.
55:22Look at that. Perfect. Yeah. I kind, I'm going to, I'm cautiously saying that I think this is a safe space to start doing this again.
55:29As it's going to be the next superstar receiver.
55:32I don't know about that, but the other part about Wix beyond just the fact that he became this like meme player
55:38with the drops and everything, this guy can play all three receiver positions.
55:42He can move across the formation. That's actually really nice to have if he just ends up being the third receiver for
55:48the Philadelphia Eagles after Makai Lemon gets ramped up.
55:51So I do think that, you know, while you took to Twitter to make fun of all of us for picking the
55:57Cowboys to win the division, Josh, which, you know, very classy by you.
56:01I picked him to win a Superbowl pound. Okay.
56:03I'm, I'm, I'm bought in. Yeah. Very classy by you making fun of all your colleagues.
56:08That's nice. I do think things are pointing up for, I think things are pointing up for this Eagles team.
56:14I mean, Colin has just brainwashed all of you.
56:16I mean, it's, it's insane, Matt. I think it was a cry from help from you to have the Cowboys win that
56:23division, because if you didn't pick it, Colin would just be texting you.
56:26He'd be messaging you producer. Colin would just be in your grill all the time.
56:31So you only pick them to appease and silence him.
56:33Colin's not in my grill all the time anyways.
56:36Okay. Yeah. Yeah. You're right. Colin usually is leaving me alone on a day-to-day basis.
56:40Yeah. That, that, that is for sure. No, I picked it because I believe it.
56:45If you think it made me happy to pick the Cowboys to win the division, ultimately win the Superbowl and Dak Prescott to win MVP.
56:52If you think that made me happy, you don't know me at all, Josh.
56:56I mean, I just think it's insane that I was what?
56:59One of eight people. The only one of eight people to pick the Eagles to win this division and everyone else pick
57:05the Cowboys that, I mean, that shocked me. So I'm sure many people like you thought, oh, well, the Cowboys, no one's going to pick them.
57:13I'm going to be a bit different here. Correct.
57:15When I'm just going to go with the Eagles and be the one that's different, you know, pretty good logic there.
57:21Yeah. Yeah. I thought I was buying tickets to a, to a hipster band.
57:25I went to a stadium tour. I didn't realize that that was happening there, but you know what?
57:30It is what it is. All right. We're going to take our first quick break.
57:35We come back. We're running through more questions heading into week one.
57:38We'll get into that right after this. All right.
57:41We're back. We're continuing to roll through Josh's six pack of questions heading into week number one, Josh question number four.
57:47What do we got? All right. Which rookie pops up and makes us lose our mind on Sunday night and Monday morning?
57:53All right, Matt, here's your list. You have Jeremiah love versus the chargers as you know, nearly 10 point underdogs.
57:59You have Carnell Tate as one and a half point favorites against the New York jets.
58:03You have Casey Concepcion, eight and a half point dogs against the vaunted Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front.
58:08Chris bell, three and a half point dogs against the Las Vegas Raiders.
58:12Mike Washington is three and a half point faves or pick your other name.
58:16Like, I guess what I'm getting at Matt here is, is there even going to be one rookie that makes us super
58:22excited like we always do and get after week one?
58:25Very clever of you, obviously, to not bring up your boy Stribbling, who had, I believe, well, two catches for 38 yards
58:31in the Thursday night game, if I could predict that correctly.
58:34But obviously, no, that game hasn't happened yet. But it has happened if you're listening to this on the audio format.
58:40So I'm breaking the fifth or fourth or sixth wall.
58:43Who cares? I honestly think that we could be looking at the rookie that loses our mind or makes us lose our mind from a negative standpoint.
58:51Josh, I really don't have a lot of expectations.
58:54I really don't have a lot of expectations for these rookies early on in their career.
58:58Like the guy, I think, who's going to play the biggest and most important role from a receiver standpoint.
59:04Obviously, Jeremiah Love when he's 100% healthy is going to be the dude for the Arizona Cardinals.
59:09But I can totally see Tyrell. You're carrying the football more for the Cardinals in week one.
59:13You know, they're going to get crushed by the Chargers in week one.
59:17I think the guy who's going to play the biggest role among the wide receivers is like Casey Concepcion.
59:23But he's probably going to have like nine catches for 62 yards from Deshaun Watson, you know, with the pop gun passes all day.
59:29I don't know. I just don't feel great about any of these rookies heading into week number one.
59:35Okay. I know we're going to talk about this game a bit later on, but can I pitch you Chris Bell of the Miami Dolphins?
59:42Like Jeff Halfley on Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas, the rookie wide receiver, duo.
59:46I mean, they're both listed as week one starters.
59:48Typically, you know, some people don't want to put anything into that.
59:52But Jeff Halfley basically said, quote, we believe those guys deserve to start and we're going to start them and said that
59:58there's no pitch count here on Chris Bell. Matt, if the Dolphins are going to shock anyone this season, it should be
60:04week one against the Las Vegas Raiders and whatever defense that they are throwing out there.
60:09Right. And Chris Bell is a fun player in that he is kind of as a linear skill set in terms of
60:15big athletic can break tackles, can work slants and crossing routes.
60:18And I just wonder if that really meshes quite well with what Bobby Sloic and Malik will just want to do here.
60:25It's a great shout. I could tell since you threw him in there that that was the guy that you wanted to talk about.
60:31So I left this one for you because it's actually, I think, the best answer from this one because you have to
60:38be kind of deep in the weeds to have noticed that like, oh yeah, Chris Bell is just like he's going to
60:44play in week one way ahead of schedule starter way ahead of schedule.
60:48And I actually love the idea of him as that movement player with Caleb Douglas seemingly being kind of tethered as the ex receiver in this offense.
60:56And, you know, I think you and I dabbled in some maybe Bobby Sloic apologist type deal when he was with the Houston Texans.
61:02And listen, I was hard on Sloic towards the end because he didn't, he did not transition that well out of that
61:09offense well out of the Shanahan greatest hits playbook.
61:11But if the Miami Dolphins are just running the Shanahan greatest hits playbook and we're talking about like play action in breakers
61:18and I think Chris Bell can do that stuff pretty well and make some plays after the catch.
61:23Bobby Sloic was an outstanding offensive coordinator in terms of passing play design his rookie year with CJ Stroud.
61:28And there was a lot of heavier personnel usage that then allowed multiple and max protection.
61:33And then you had two man routes down the field and that was, you know, Nico Collins and Tank Dell and Noah Brown.
61:39And that was it. And then you just got them into wide open areas and that's going to be Caleb Douglas.
61:45And that's going to be Chris Bell. One final follow up here, Matt.
61:49Shouldn't it be in our radar a little bit?
61:52And I'm, it's been in our radar, you know, all of August that we aren't saying Cardinal Tate's name when the Titans
61:58are actually one and a half point favorites here against the Jets, a Jets secondary.
62:02That is AZ Thomas, Brandon Stevens and Jarvis Brownlee.
62:05Like, if that's the point, then we're already completely out on what the Titans are going to be here.
62:10And maybe they are the ones that shock us and make us rethink every conclusion that we made in August because of
62:16the matchup that they have here in week one against the Jets.
62:20Yeah. I think the one silver lining you could take from Cardinal Tate's usage from the preseason, I talked about this with
62:26Nate on yesterday's show regarding Cardinal Tate was that he was used more as the off ball, you know, Z receiver, as
62:33opposed to like, they're just kind of sacrificing Calvin Ridley and Alec Io manner as the X receiver.
62:38And I think they're going to come in here and just run a bunch of RPO nonsense, which I don't love in
62:44the longterm for anybody on this offense. But think about like the 2023 season with Michael Pittman and Gardner Minshew, and they're running a bunch of RPOs.
62:52And it's just first read, first read, first read, first read going to Michael Pittman over and over again.
62:57Theoretically, it seems like Cardinal Tate is going to kind of operate in that world.
63:01But I also can't imagine that it's not like 50 50 with Wando Robinson in that way, which like if Wando Robinson
63:08wasn't on this team, I feel like I'd be much more gassed up about Cardinal Tate, which is kind of an odd
63:14thing to say, but it's, it's just how I feel about it.
63:17Yeah. You have the Wanda wall in your face, or at least Brian Dayball does like the first.
63:23Yeah, it's not me. Entires. The play sheet is just, you know, the Wanda target zone and then everyone else just gets secondary aspects of this.
63:30Yeah. I don't know. I mean, so often we think we know exactly what's going to happen in fancy draft season and quickly we are proven wrong.
63:38Now that doesn't mean that week one then carries into week 11.
63:41There's a lot of ups and downs between there, but I would like to think that if the Titans have any juice
63:47this year, that they can show it in week one in this matchup that they are favored in.
63:53Well, we'll talk about the Titans again in nobody's games of the week, but last one I'll nominate here.
63:58Sunday night football, Malachi Fields, sick touchdown catch. Okay.
64:01You know, and we got Chris Collinsworth, like his college recall that game.
64:04I mean, I don't know how the whole Sunday night rotation works.
64:08Definitely. Yeah. He's calling. Yeah. He's calling the game.
64:10You know, he just called the game last night.
64:13He's a busy man. I don't know. He's like, you know, I once remember a great touchdown gets from another.
64:19He loves Notre Dame. Yep. That's right. So I'm just saying, I think I could see something from Malachi Fields, but I
64:25think it's just going to be the number two receiver on this Giants offense as a rookie after they released Darius Slayton.
64:31Okay. Let's get to your fifth question heading into week one.
64:34Well, since I'm joining the wide receiver person himself, I got to talk wide receivers here.
64:39So Matt, I like person. That was my favorite one that people do like whisper.
64:43I hate guru. Guru is the worst. Yeah. Those are like person.
64:47Okay. Person entity. Yes. Which of these past catchers sees the biggest change in usage thanks to the new play caller or team that they're a part of?
64:55Okay. Here's the list. Zay Flowers at the Indianapolis Colts this week.
64:58Marvin Harrison Jr. At the Los Angeles Chargers. DJ Moore at the Houston Texans.
65:02Jalen Waddell at the Kansas City Chiefs. Emeka Buka at the Cincinnati Bengals.
65:06So there's a bit of a theme. Again, all these players are on the road, but they're all connected to at least
65:12a new play caller or on a new team here.
65:15So Matt, what is your answer? All right. I think Ibuka and Waddell are going to be playing in almost completely different
65:21roles than what we watched them with last year.
65:24Whereas both guys were kind of outside X receivers Waddell more so than Ibuka.
65:28Although Ibuka definitely was leaning into the X receiver territory when Mike Evans was out, of course.
65:33And I've talked about that a lot. I think both those guys are basically in completely different roles as they, as both
65:39of them are going to be more Z receivers this year.
65:42Their slot rates are going to go up. And I'm high on both of those guys, obviously, over the course of the season.
65:49I love that. I saw Hayden's put this like, yeah, man, Emeka Buka really lost out on all those August fantasy points
65:55for me when with the toe injury and training camp.
65:58Love that because, yeah, he's just like practice. He might not be 100%.
66:02That's totally fair. But he's practicing in full. He has an elite matchup in week number one.
66:07Bengals gave up the most. Bengals gave the most passing production last year to receivers.
66:11In motion at the snap. The Falcons under Zach Robinson last year led the NFL in passing yards to receivers in motion
66:17at the snap, according to fantasy points data. Yeah, I think this is just a smash spot for Ibuka and a pretty
66:23good spot for Chris Goddard and all these passing players for the Tampa Buccaneers.
66:27Jalen Waddell, I think, is a good spot. I would say, you know, Harrison and Flowers probably don't see as big of like massive shifts.
66:35That's super obvious to note in their usage. But I think the subtleties will matter on the.
66:39Like the margins that will be good for both of them.
66:43I'm not sure Harrison will see it all that much in week one, just because I think they're going to get smoked by the Chargers.
66:50I want to ask you about DJ Moore, though, here.
66:53And I know I'm just like I literally talk about everybody on this list.
66:57DJ Moore, though, I think is another guy that will see a pretty big shift in his route diet.
67:02I talked about this with Hayden at one point where I did sort of a deep dive study on my own charting
67:08data to try to quantify who was like the most misused wide receiver last year relative to the routes that they ran
67:15versus the routes that they were best on. More was one of the top five names that showed up.
67:20And if like you just juxtapose his route tree last year, what he was good at, even in the last two years,
67:26really down years for him production wise. And you've mapped that to like Keon Coleman's X receiver route tree under Joe Brady in his first season there.
67:34It's a lot of quick slants, deeper stop routes, go routes like more can still run those well.
67:39And basically the bet for the Buffalo Bills this year, Josh, is what we need to fix our passing game is just
67:46DJ Moore and some other minor tweaks. And when they've gone against the Texans the last couple of years, they've gotten crushed.
67:52The Texans played their second highest rate of man coverage in 2025 in any game against these Buffalo Bills because you can do that.
67:59So he needs to be the one that moves the needle the most.
68:02And they likely brought DJ Moore in and you can tell me if, you know, the numbers line up for this.
68:08And if they don't, then maybe they have a problem as, you know, their man coverage beater.
68:13Because other than that, you had, you know, Khalil Shakir is their best, you know, maybe zone and yards after catch sitter.
68:20And if DJ Moore is going to be that, it's a heck of a first audition for it.
68:25Right. I almost made the bills an entire question in this, like, are we instantly going to see this drop back rate
68:31change, you know, from the 31st, 25th and 30th over the last three seasons up to, I don't know, 12th, 10th in week one.
68:38And if that's the case, then DJ Moore is a focal point.
68:41You know, James Cook catches more passes on top of it.
68:45We get different styling of fancy points from Josh Allen than when we have in the past.
68:49I can't quite get on my mind. And maybe what you just said is a huge factor here that like DJ Moore
68:56is on this drastic decline in production over the last couple of seasons from like 70 yards per game down to 40 yards per game.
69:03And I mean, that was in a Ben Johnson offense.
69:06So it's not like we can say, oh, his play caller was just crap.
69:10You know, maybe he just didn't wasn't a fit for everything.
69:13Let's put that that way with DJ Moore. But at the same time, we also know that a handful of years ago,
69:19he has spectacular season production wise with Joe Brady in Carolina.
69:22So I can't wait to see what the plan is here, because like you said, the Texans defense has been the boogeyman
69:29for a lot of quarterbacks and especially one that's MVP caliber like Josh Allen.
69:33Yeah, it's really fascinating. Just a great spot to test a lot of these theories here in week one for the Buffalo
69:39Bills, including, you know, you mentioned the James Cook catching more passes.
69:42Because again, I keep bringing up the preview show that I did with Nate on football 301, probably because I just recorded
69:49it like three or four hours ago. That's one.
69:51But also there was some good stuff in there and talked about how James Cook, if he is going to catch more
69:57passes this year, isolated up with Henry Toa Toa on the Eastern Texans might be like one nit to pick when they get into those man coverage looks.
70:05So we're going to see if James Cook and his sly little, you know, allusion to catching more passes on the show this year.
70:12We'll see if that gets proven right here in week one.
70:16Any of these other just wide receivers that you threw out there that you want to just highlight?
70:21Yeah, I mean, say Flowers, Matt, if we look back and he gets, you know, three red zone targets or two red
70:27zone targets in the first week, like, oh, yes, we're on a great path that we want to see after, you know,
70:33only seeing about 14 of them combined over the last two seasons.
70:37So say Flowers, if he just does what he did last year is going to pay off as ADP.
70:42But as you and I have spoken about a lot, he can go from what, like wide receiver 17 up to wide
70:48receiver seven if he catches another three, four, five touchdowns this year.
70:52And that's the key to everything. And hopefully Declan Doyle can bring some of that magic from, you know, his time in different offenses.
70:59And most recently with Ben Johnson and manufacture some space and some easy access stuff for Zay Flowers in the tight fields,
71:05because that hasn't been part of his game in the past.
71:08Yeah, this tweet from Jared Smola that I'll reference here.
71:11Colts ranked ninth in man coverage rate last season, 29 percent Zay Flowers versus man coverage last year, 0.3 targets per route.
71:17It was 0.24 against zone 3.06 yards per route against man coverage, 2.5 against zone coverage.
71:22So I just imagine Zay Flowers in motion in these heavy personnel packages, man coverage against the Colts.
71:27Yeah, I think Jared's right that we see a pretty big week for Zay Flowers here in week number one.
71:33Okay, let's get to your sixth and final question here heading into week one.
71:37All right. Which low projected offense shocks the world, shocks everything and actually looks good?
71:41And hopefully I'm not stepping on your toes too much with some of these bad teams.
71:46But there are six teams projected to score 20 points or less in week one.
71:50Okay, that's the Browns, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, the Falcons, the Titans and the Commanders.
71:55Those are the bottom. I guess those are seven teams.
71:58I couldn't even count seven teams projected to score 20 or less.
72:01So I'll let you have first pick. Which of those offenses do you have the most belief in here in week one?
72:07Oh my God. That I have the most belief in?
72:10Yes. When you put it like that, I mean, I'm so Cardinals curious and Cardinals pilled that I kind of want to say that.
72:17You better have belief in some of these guys because the Cardinals had four players in the top 80 picks.
72:23The Falcons had, you know, three players in the top 70 picks, you know, the Commanders.
72:27We'll get to the Falcons. We're talking about the Falcons on the other side of this.
72:32And we have an injury, you know, news to talk about there.
72:35But just on the Cardinals thing, I ended up drafting so much Michael Wilson this year.
72:40And I don't know how. I mean, look, obviously I was over indexed.
72:44Both he and Marv were fairly cheap, Matt. So why did you make that decision in your head of Michael Wilson over Marv?
72:50Because Michael Wilson was cheaper and I had them ranked essentially in the same tier.
72:55So it was just easier to get Michael Wilson and wanting to have like exposure to these to this Cardinals offense, which I think can outkick expectations.
73:02And you had the two premium pieces. I think I only ended up with Jeremiah Love and one like we start we
73:09actually start these players league because I think it was actually in one of the drafts we're in together here at Yahoo.
73:15We're ended up with Ashton Gentty and and Jeremiah Love's like, let's just let's just.
73:19Let's mess around here. Let's have some fun, like went receiver in round one and got those two guys in rounds two and three.
73:26Let's just have a little fun with the high ankle sprain bros.
73:30But other than that, like it was mostly just I sprinkled in some Marv and got a lot of Michael Wilson because
73:36he just would end up being the highest guy in my queue because I believe in him as a talent.
73:42And I believe that his role in this offense, he's not going to be playing the Puka Naku role or anything like that.
73:48But as the detached Z receiver blocking and the whole deal, I think it fits his game pretty well.
73:54So, yeah, ultimately, he just was a guy I ended up with a lot.
73:58And now I'm looking at him in all my week one lineups being like, am I starting Michael Wilson against the Chargers
74:04defense that obviously we got a different play caller, but was has been excellent the last couple of years.
74:09Okay, I'm going to make the pitch for the New York Jets.
74:13Okay, that's the team that I'm going to pick from this group of seven.
74:17They are the second lowest projected offense at 18 and a half points.
74:20But when I look up some of these matchups on paper, like sure, if you want to say the Titans have a
74:27strength, it is their defensive line, namely Jeffrey Simmons.
74:29But the strengths of this Jets offense is that offensive line.
74:32I mean, they have two of the best young tackles in the league.
74:36Joe Tippman at right guard. I think that they have enough to give Geno Smith a platform to succeed, to create some running lanes for Brees Hall.
74:44When you and I were sitting in a restaurant in Buffalo, I think a preseason game was on.
74:49And it was like the Seahawks backups against the Titans defensive starters.
74:52And the Seahawks backups were just going for like 60-yard touchdowns and like 70-yard touchdown drives over and over and over again.
74:59And I mean, the Titans are favored in this game.
75:02Once again, by one and a half points. I'm looking at this offense, Matt.
75:06I'm looking at the starting 11. I'm like, this should score more than 18 and a half points against the Tennessee Titans.
75:12And I wouldn't be surprised. Shout out Jets fans that we look back and they have some optimism after week one.
75:18Oh, baby. I mean, I like it. This is a talented group on paper.
75:22Sure. And, man, I think about the Titans defense too.
75:25This has been rattling around in the back of my brain just because I'm very Titans skeptical.
75:30And they're also in the Nobody's Games of the Week segment as well.
75:33So we'll come back to the Titans. But I've thought about this with Robert Sala where last year with the San Francisco
75:4049ers, they were so banged up in the whole deal.
75:43And it was kind of like, man, he really got this team to play hard.
75:47He really got these guys going and everything. But then they got smoked on defense basically every week.
75:52And I get it. Like, they had injuries here.
75:55But are we sure that, like, Robert Sala brings a schematic advantage to the table here?
75:59I'm a little skeptical of that. Well, and at corner, they're going to play Cordell Flott, who's coming from the Giants.
76:05And then on the opposite side, it's Alante Taylor, who, to me, when I think of Alante Taylor, is namely a slot corner.
76:12And that's when he's at his best. And it sounds like they're going to ask him to play on the outside.
76:18And if that's the case, like, give me Garrett Wilson.
76:21Give me Adnan Mitchell to maybe have, like, three or four big-time outbreaking or downfield catches in this game.
76:26Like, all we need is one here. And they can even get funky with some personnel groupings with Mason Taylor and Kenyon
76:32Sadiq or take Sadiq out and have Omar Cooper in there.
76:36Again, this is way too much talent to have there on offense.
76:39And Frank Reich might be the reason for it, that they're only for 18 and a half points.
76:44Yes, the Frank Reich factor is a big one here, especially as we're coming off the heels of Wednesday night football, where
76:50I'm maybe more just like, got it. If you even have just a replacement-level play caller, which I kind of think Joshua
76:57Daniels is just like a replacement-level play caller, offensive coordinator at this point.
77:00Maybe that's a hot take. But that's, like, not good enough.
77:04If you're not pushing the right buttons schematically at this point, you can do whatever you want from just a formation standpoint.
77:10It's not going to be good enough. And I think Frank Reich is even lower than Joshua Daniels in my rankings there.
77:16So, yeah, we'll see about that. But I do like your optimism on the Jets.
77:20We'll maybe test that a little bit more as we get into No One's Games of the Week.
77:26And with that, we're going to take a quick break.
77:28When we come back, we'll get into that segment right after this.
77:32All right, we're back. And welcome to No One's Games of the Week.
77:36I forgot about the lullaby sound effect. Oh, my God.
77:38That's so good. Yeah. Are you fired up to talk a little football, Josh, after the lullaby sound effect?
77:44I hear enough lullaby soundtracks with my eight-month-old Matt.
77:46That's almost like a Pavlovian response that I had to, like, slightly tiptoe out of the room as that's going on and
77:53dim the lights so you can take a nap.
77:55Well, these games might make you want to dim the lights and take a nap.
78:00Might make you want to tiptoe off this podcast right now.
78:03We've got three games to talk through here in No One's Games of the Week.
78:07We've got Jets and Titans that we've alluded to.
78:10We've got Dolphins at Ravens that we've alluded to.
78:12But one we haven't really touched on yet, and it's going to be the one I think we should spend the most
78:19time on here because we've got some news around this particular contest.
78:22Falcons at Steelers. It was already going to be in this segment, Josh, just with the whole malaise around the Falcons right
78:28now and the fact that they barely wanted to admit that they got a start to a tongue of Ilo here in Week 1.
78:35But we found out today that Tua went down with back discomfort in today's practice.
78:39You're seeing the video if you're watching with us on YouTube right now.
78:43Now Cooper Rush is taking all the QB1 reps.
78:46So we got a Cooper Rush Mike McCarthy revenge game on tap here, Josh.
78:50So I did the NFC South preview pod with Nate Tice.
78:53That was a four-hour marathon a couple weeks ago.
78:55And as soon as I was asked about the Atlanta Falcons, I floated the thought that this team is thinking more about 2027 than 2026.
79:03And that was just because how the quarterback position had kind of been handled.
79:07And I think this just puts that into overdrive.
79:09I don't want to, like, crush anyone here, Matt, because we legitimately might be looking at the end of Tua's career with this.
79:16Like, if he's not going to play here in the first two or three weeks of the season when he's just kind
79:22of, like, filling space for Michael Penix coming in here.
79:25But, Matt, like, this is what gave me so much concern about drafting B.
79:29John Robinson second overall, Drake London 18th overall, Kyle Pitts at, what, 71st overall, where he was going on whatever platform you use.
79:35This is not good. I mean, this is not good.
79:38And you would like to think that against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is one of the winnable games.
79:44The markets have the Falcons only for 18 and a half points, and they are four and a half point underdogs in this matchup.
79:50Well, I don't know what else to say. I'll tell you what to say.
79:54I'm really, really nervous about this one, not only because of everything we just said, but also on the other side of this here with the Steelers.
80:02I think that Patrick Graham taking over the defensive coordinator position for Pittsburgh hasn't gotten nearly enough attention because I think Patrick
80:08Graham's units with the Raiders have consistently, and frankly, even with the Giants at times when he was a defensive coordinator there,
80:15have consistently punched above their weight class. And he would get below average defenses out of some of the worst personnel outside
80:21of Max Crosby that you could put on paper.
80:24And I also think this is a guy who has more of like a Patriots route.
80:28You know, I'm not saying he's going to be like Brian Flores or anything.
80:32Come on with these crazy blitzes and crazy coverages on the back end.
80:36But he might. And this is a defense in Pittsburgh that was, I mean, just it had really, I think, gone stale from a schematic standpoint.
80:43So we could not only see like, yeah, yeah, the Falcons are undermanned with either Tua or certainly Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback.
80:50But then they're also put into a blender by a defense that throws a ton at them in week one that they aren't prepared for.
80:57Totally. And they go three deep at edge rusher, TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig on that side.
81:02Maybe the the only glimmer of hope is that this is a very much reworked secondary here for the Steelers.
81:08You bring in Jamel Dean from the Bucks. We know Joey Porter has missed all of training camp while holding in.
81:14And as we have seen, when you miss all of training camp, that does impact you once you hit the regular season,
81:21at least for other skilled players that we've seen do that, then Rayshon Jenkins and Jaquan Brisker are the stars at safety,
81:27along with Jalen Ramsey as that nickel spot. So, yeah, I mean, who knew that the Steelers like could still hold on
81:33to that Mike Tomlin magic of like just doing enough just to get by of being like nine and eight every single season and squeezing the playoffs.
81:41But, Matt, they might carry that here into week one with the cake is matchup possible with the Atlanta Falcons.
81:47Let's live in a hypothetical world where it's a disaster and the Falcons get smoked in week one.
81:52What are you going to tell people to do about Drake London after that game?
81:56This is a guy who each of the last three years has started really slow.
82:00Actually, if you look at his week, he's always in the week post week one panic meter show.
82:05I think he's going to be in the post week one panic meter show here again this year, given everything that we're saying here.
82:12What are you going to advise people to do about Drake London?
82:16I'll add one more variable on top of this.
82:18What if we come out and we see him play like he's not that movement slot receiver like he's been previously?
82:24Because I look at all the other dudes on this roster and it's like my boy, Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zachariah Branch.
82:31Which one are you telling me of those guys is the sacrificial X receiver?
82:35I'm not so sure. Yeah, it's fair. And Kevin Stefanski's offenses, the primary read has often been, you know, tight ends.
82:41And we even saw that in the preseason with like tight end screens and Drake London blocking out in front of him.
82:47With Michael Penix, I'm actually more optimistic of Drake London than I am with Tua, than I am with Cooper Rush, than
82:53I am with all these other guys. Like the four, five quarterbacks that Drake London has played with.
82:58Penix is easily the highest in terms of yards per route run on 385 routes, target rate per route, fantasy points per route, all that type of stuff.
83:06So I am begging if I drafted Drake London for Michael Penix to feel good about his body and actually ask to
83:13get back in the game and get back in the starting lineup.
83:16Because Matt, I think that's the reason why he's out of it is that Penix doesn't feel 100%.
83:21And this is someone that's gone through so many injuries that he has basically said to this staff, hey, I'm not going
83:28out there because this might be my last chance until I feel as close to 100% as possible.
83:33I think he's right to do that. Okay, so let's say like the Falcons are, they're not going to win this game.
83:39How are the Steelers putting up points on the other side of it, Josh?
83:43Yeah, it's a great question. It's a really good question.
83:46Every interview that Aaron Rodgers has done, he's mentioned multiple times that Michael Pittman and his like soft tissue injuries might not
83:52be a big part of the game plan here in week one.
83:56And he's pointed the finger at DK Metcalf and Pat Friermuth as big options here.
84:00And so if you've missed out and you're having to, you know, put Brock Bowers on IR or on the bench for
84:06a couple of weeks, that might slight pickup at tight end is, I think, Pat Friermuth.
84:11If I'm believing the words and that's a dangerous thing to do with what Aaron Rodgers is speaking at this moment.
84:17I was going to say, I saw about a bazillion Aaron Rodgers podcast clips on my timeline today.
84:22Mark's safe from listening to any of them. I say this as a podcast host.
84:26There's too many podcasts. Okay, I mean, come on.
84:29We don't need all these podcasts. But anyways, Jalen Warren, I would guess, gets the most touches out of this backfield in week number one.
84:36But we'll reassess that if I'm wrong about it coming into week number two.
84:40Okay, game two here in nobody's games of the week.
84:43We already kind of talked about this one. Dolphins, Raiders, just backfield thoughts, expectations on the Ashton-Gentee-Mike Washington split as Gentee looks
84:49like he is a quote unquote full go heading into week one.
84:53Yes. And that's great to see. Like Ashton-Gentee after a prayer circle that they could only use one of and not for
84:59Brock Bowers, again, I would like to think that we get 60% use at least of Ashton-Gentee.
85:04But Matt, that's a drastic departure of the 84% of the backfield touches that we got last year.
85:09And I think based on what we have heard from the beat writers, from Clint Kubiak, from Spytak and company saying that
85:15Kubiak stood on the table to draft Mike Washington Jr., that he's going to have a larger chunk of this backfield than
85:21people thought a month ago at this time. And so I'm not saying it's going to be 50-50 split, but even 60-40 is a huge difference here.
85:29And my eye is on, you know, Tyler Linderbaum really elevating this entire offensive line because I really like Gentee and he
85:35had no chance in a lot of situations last year.
85:38And just going from awful to average along that offensive line would help tremendously from both the runners here.
85:44Yeah, it's huge. And how many more times this year are the Raiders going to be home favorites?
85:49It's probably not very many. So I think that Gentee, just depending on how healthy he is, gets a decent bit of the work here in week one.
85:57I've kind of thought about their backfield duo. Josh is like Mike Washington is a poor man's Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet is like a souped up.
86:05Oh, geez. I just slipped up. But Ashton Gentee is like a souped up version of Zach Charbonnet.
86:10Yeah. Well, that's what I mean. He's like, that's what I'm saying.
86:13He is a souped up version of Zach Charbonnet.
86:16But if you're telling me souped up version of Charbonnet getting trusted around the goal line, you know, in the passing game,
86:22getting some of these critical down and distance situations again.
86:25What is that worth from a fantasy ADP standpoint?
86:28We'll find out. But I think that's a pretty decent role for Gentee.
86:31Mike Washington makes a big play here. I mean, he made a big play in every single preseason game that he was in.
86:38He is a big play waiting to happen. He's a perfect fit for his system.
86:42And if we look at, you know, this Dolphins defense, it's Jordan Phillips, Zach Sealer.
86:46I know they're missing their first round defensive tackle out of Michigan from last year, too.
86:51So, again, if you can run, if you can improve your running game in this iteration of the Raiders, this is like
86:57the perfect opponent to do it against when the edge rushers are Chop Robinson and Josh Uche as well.
87:03So, yeah, I'm looking at at least, Matt, at least a 21-yard run for Mike Washington Jr.
87:08in this game. A single- You know, Josh, the more I look at this game, the more I hear you talk about it.
87:14I think this is one of those ones that goes over the pitiful 40.5-point total.
87:18You know, typically we do see like offenses can get off to a hot start over some of the defenses.
87:24I think both these defenses look pretty rough on paper.
87:27The Raiders have some guys they paid for some players in the offseason.
87:31Obviously, they have Max Crosby, but I can see the Raiders moving the football.
87:35Like, Kirk Cousins is Kirk Cousins, but I don't think he's going to get fooled by anything at this point in his career.
87:41And I think, like, I mean, how many times when he would go against Todd Bowles' defense does he just carve that
87:48thing up because he knows how to diagnose a blitz?
87:51He knows how to diagnose his own coverage and just like get the football in play.
87:55I think you can do that against this Dolphins defense, certainly with some of the personnel there.
88:00But also just that, and then on Miami side of things, the young and exciting, like we don't know what we're looking
88:06at duo of like Malik Willis and Devon H.
88:09And I'm like weirdly talking myself into this game being a more it's tough to know like which players are putting on
88:15our lineups because of it, but like a more juicy fantasy matchup than you think.
88:19And we always talk about offensive lines and how that can be, you know, a platform of success or just destroy whatever game plan that you had.
88:27The Dolphins on paper, I'm sure Nate talked about this with you, is like sneakily fun, you know, like Patrick Pollitt left tackle, long and athletic.
88:35Caden Pronkter, about 400 pounds at left guard. Aaron Brewer, one of the best centers in the NFL.
88:40They're moving Jonas Savaina back to right guard, which he should be much better at.
88:44And then Austin Jackson has kind of been up and down there at the right tackle spot.
88:49But Matt, that's important because when people think about Malik Willis, they probably imagine him just scrambling and running around.
88:55But when you look back to his time under the floor in Green Bay, last year's game against the Ravens, when you
89:01look at some of the moments that we've already seen with him in the preseason, he's a pocket passer now.
89:07You know, he wants to work between the tackles.
89:09He wants to throw down the field. He wants to attack different blades of grass.
89:14And that's what I want to keep in mind here, that this isn't just going to be some, you know, herky jerky.
89:20Let's run him around and get some easy completions.
89:22They're going to try to like throw downfield and create explosives.
89:26And that's going to be fun with also having one of the most, if not the most explosive running back in the backfield behind him.
89:33Look, it's such a final like preseason brain take to get off here.
89:36But there's just a lot of ways that this offense in Miami can put you in conflict because I agree with you,
89:43like what Malik Willis can do at this point.
89:45Like he's just such a developed player from what he was when he was coming from freaking Liberty as a third round pick into the NFL.
89:53He's a much different player. He can actually play from pocket.
89:56He can push the ball down the field. Now, are any of these receivers going to help him out there in their very first game?
90:03Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, you know, we'll see about that.
90:06But there's a lot of ways where I think this Dolphins offense can just be interesting to watch in bad matchups.
90:12And this is one of them. So again, if you're looking for fantasy deep sleepers, maybe there's some few guys here.
90:18Last game up in this segment, we've talked about both the Jets and the Titans here a decent bit, but Jets at
90:24Titans, any other final takes you want to get off for either of these two teams here?
90:29Uh, other than Brian Dayball saying that it's basically gonna be a 50 50 split between Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears.
90:35Like that is drastically different than we thought it would be ahead of the preseason and then that first preseason game hit.
90:42And it was exactly like a series for one guy, a series for another.
90:46Um, look, I don't want to make sweeping conclusions ahead of week one, uh, especially when they're favored in this game.
90:52But if it doesn't go right for Brian Dayball this season with came word at quarterback, uh, this could be the end
90:58of Brian Dayball's time calling plays in the NFL.
91:01Yeah. I'm really skeptical of the dayball offense in general, which maybe it takes me by surprise.
91:05We'll see. But I, I'm pretty skeptical about just that again, where does he fall in the needle moving play callers at this point?
91:12Like it's, it's a very strict, like have, have not world in the NFL right now.
91:17I'm skeptical that dayball scheme is, is in the halves portion of that.
91:21And with came word, we, we can't have one of those mind melting, cut your head off type of place, you know, like in a game.
91:28Don't you just need to get through it part.
91:31Don't you just always get part of this first game.
91:33Let's not have it in there. Cam. Okay. Let's not retreat 20 yards in the backfield.
91:38Understand when a play is dead live for the next one in this environment.
91:42And I just hope like, I don't want to be out on cam ward after the first week of his second season.
91:48When the first one you can just throw out when his head coach was like fired halfway through the year, along with
91:55the offensive line coach, because that was his dad and all this type of stuff.
91:59Like give me some hope because I want to be a cam ward believer and I want to get it right because
92:05he is such a fun thrower of the football.
92:08I'm just a bit skeptical of the entire environment of it.
92:11Yeah. I wish I was less skeptical of the environment, but I am with you there.
92:16I'm very skeptical. And I have been pretty much like since the day ball higher happened.
92:20And, you know, I just, I do feel like cam ward might be one of those guys.
92:25It's just always when you grade to the flashes with a player like this, you're just going to be burned more often
92:31than not, because I, I feel this way about quarterback play Josh.
92:35And this is, we don't have to go on a whole tangent about this, but to me, it's just the quieter moments
92:41matter a lot more than the highs. Like the highs are intoxicating, but this is why a guy like Jared golf can
92:47come out and just have the most productive offense in the NFL on an annual basis.
92:52Like he's not flashy. He's not going to have the, yeah, he drifts off his back foot and throw some sick 40
92:58yard pass that nobody on earth can make. Like there, how many other guys on earth can make that play?
93:04How many other guys on earth can keep the train on the tracks for, you know, 95% of the game, which I
93:10think matters more than the, than the 5% of the wild players.
93:14I don't know. Basically the instructor stuff matters more than the out of structure stuff.
93:18That's what you're saying. I would love the stat line, by the way, 218 passing yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions.
93:24I will bite your hand off for that cam word stat line in week one.
93:28This game's got a little bit of intrigue to it.
93:31And I'm with you on the jets being maybe in a pretty good position here on offense in week one jets, Robert Sala revenge game in week one.
93:39That's what the people are tuning in for, for the first week of the NFL season.
93:43All right, we are going to take our last quick break.
93:46We come back. We've got the mailbag. We got your questions.
93:50What to do with some of these week one debates.
93:53We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back and welcome to fantasy hotline presented by Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL.
94:00Every single week, we ask you all a burning question.
94:03All right, we reach out to you. We try to get your sense of things.
94:07So for this week, we asked you who is a player you are nervous to start on your fantasy team in week one.
94:14And we got a bunch of different names here, starting with reading these Twitter handles every single week.
94:19I can barely get through this. Okay. This first one comes in from at D one double deuce.
94:24All right, here we go. We got the double deuce in here.
94:27Big tennis player. Jeremiah. Sure. Jeremiah. God. Jeremiah love in my flex.
94:31I have Marshawn Lloyd and Mike Evans on my bench, but I don't know how I can sit love over those two.
94:37Well, Mike Evans, if you're watching this live, you know, you still got some time to figure that out.
94:43If you're listening to this tomorrow. You know, tough break, but okay.
94:46Jeremiah love Josh. How are we feeling about the rookie running back coming off a high ankle sprain?
94:51Maybe he's healthy. Maybe he's not. He's the number two on the fake depth chart.
94:55How are we feeling about Jeremiah love this week?
94:58Yeah. When in doubt, I typically go with running backs over wide receivers in my flex.
95:03And I would go Jeremiah love much higher than Marshawn Lloyd here.
95:06I don't want to say that, you know, a game where the Arizona Cardinals are, you know, nine half point underdogs is
95:12a game script in favor of Jeremiah love. But in the pantheon of running backs, it could be worse, you know, because
95:19what we have seen from Jeremiah love in the one half that he played and got 14 touches was multiple angle routes
95:25out of the backfield where, you know, wide receivers or tight ends push like three verticals down to just push coverage off.
95:31And it was basically a manufactured touch for Jeremiah love to catch a pass four yards down the field versus, you know,
95:38a swing or a screen pass three yards behind the line of scrimmage.
95:41And I think we can trust the floor to get two, three and heck if it's a nine and a half point
95:48difference in the second half, maybe four or five of those here in this game, Matt.
95:52So Jeremiah love is the easy answer for me here.
95:55And I think he's going to go over that three reception, 22 receiving yard mark that we have here for his week one projections.
96:02Yeah, I'm going to have him as a running back to this week, which yeah, typically running back to over kind of
96:08a low end wide receiver to high end wide receiver three, which is where I think Mike Evans will rank.
96:14I think that's the correct answer. Yeah, definitely. Jeremiah love over Marshawn Lloyd.
96:18No question about that. I really take your point about the passing game usage for Jeremiah love, even though I think it's
96:24almost like this might be Tyler Algear's like highest usage rate of the entire season just because like they like Tyler Algear.
96:30He's a good player and they want to keep Jeremiah love fresh.
96:34Like there's no point running him into the brick wall in the first week of the season.
96:38But yeah, from a past game standpoint, that's going to help Jeremiah love.
96:42I will just say about Mike Evans. And again, I know that game happens tonight.
96:46So I'm risking talking about this, especially with what I'm going to say.
96:50But for some of these guys like the older players that have big injury questions, if you're not going to start him
96:56now, like what was the point of drafting Mike Evans?
96:59You know what I'm saying? Like he's theoretically he says he's healthy.
97:03He's coming in here, you know, full go big matchup in week one.
97:07If you draft if you drafted Mike Evans, you're not going to start him when he's at his healthiest.
97:12What was the point of drafting him? Yeah. And he even alluded to the fact that it was all part of the
97:18plan for him to miss all these practices with the groin and the quad.
97:22And maybe that's true. Like, again, the 49ers are.
97:25What percentage do you believe that stuff? Yeah. I mean, if that might be a boy who cried wolf situation for him where.
97:31Oh, yeah. Those actually weren't big injuries. And then later on we get, you know, some groins and some quads and all
97:38that type of stuff with the Rams, though. I mean, one of the easiest cornerback rooms to pick on last year.
97:44And they totally reworked it this offseason by snagging both of the chiefs starting corners and Trip McDuffie and Jalen Watson.
97:50So, yeah, my line with Mike Evans has always been like I wish we would have gotten 27 year old Mike Evans with Kyle Shanahan.
97:57But, you know, 33 year old Mike Evans still has enough talent to score you some fancy points.
98:02So I like that thought of if you drafted him and you're not playing in week one, are you certain you're going
98:08to be able to play him in week two?
98:11Yeah, it's a good question. Well, again, if you're listening to this show tomorrow, you already know the answer to how it went for Mike Evans.
98:18So I think Jeremiah Love is still the answer I'm going to go with here.
98:23OK, next one up at catch underscore 22. Are JT?
98:25OK, cool. Marvin Harrison Jr. I got burnt last year and I'm ready to be heard again.
98:30We touched a little bit about God. Just so many Cardinals in this section already.
98:35I feel like this is going to be disgusting with the Cardinals.
98:38Anyways, Josh, listen, I like I'm Cardinals curious. I like the way the Cardinals often sets up.
98:43But anyways, I know you are. I know you are.
98:46OK, OK. Just why? Why? Why wouldn't you be curious about a team that is, you know, nine and a half point underdogs in the first week?
98:54Why not? Yeah, why not? When has Vegas ever been right about anything before?
98:58OK, Marvin Harrison Jr. We touched a little bit on his usage earlier in the show.
99:02How do you feel about throwing him out into week one lineups?
99:06Yeah, no. I mean, I'm I feel like I'm a Marvin Harrison Jr.
99:09realist here. Maybe I get proven wrong, but Matt.
99:12What does a realist look like to you? That he's a capable starting NFL wide receiver out there and.
99:17You know, pretty freaking tough matchup against the L.A.
99:20Chargers. And no, this is not one of the I just think overall, Matt, the Cardinals are going to have to walk
99:26this tightrope that they did last year in order to for everyone to pay off.
99:30And that is once we get into the third quarter and especially deep into the fourth quarter, it's oh, we sucked for those first three quarters.
99:38And now we flip the switch and magically go on three scoring drives in a row.
99:42And that is just situations I want to bet against, you know, because garbage time, while so many people in the fantasy
99:49bubble fantasize about it and bring it up as a positive.
99:52To me, that's a negative because that means you just weren't good enough early in the game and then you're good enough at the end.
99:59Like, I don't want to depend on that. And somehow, some way, Jacoby Brissett did that over and over and over again last year.
100:06And I just don't think, despite him still playing quarterback for the team and maybe and definitely an improvement in head coach,
100:12I don't think Matt, he's going to be able to continue that.
100:16So while we might get more, you know, first and second quarter production here for Marvin Harrison Jr.
100:21I really like this projection of just, you know, three receptions for 48 yards, maybe about 55 for him in week one.
100:27Yeah. Don't worry, it gets better. In week two, they face the Seahawks.
100:31So, you know, if you get let down in week one, you can just run it back in week two.
100:37They do have the Niners, the Giants, and then the Lions in weeks three to five, where I think we actually might
100:43see a little bit more from this offense. Yeah, I'm not going to rank Marv or Michael Wilson anything more than, you
100:49know, mid-level wide receiver threes this week and probably not many other weeks.
100:53But I do find this offense interesting. That's kind of my final answer on that one.
100:57Okay, this next one at Joe Wilka sends in Bucky Irving versus Parker Washington for a PPR flex spot.
101:03Yeah, now this is an interesting one, Josh. I am really, really optimistic about the Bucks offense against the Bengals this week,
101:09which leads me to be really optimistic about the running back one, which I think is Bucky Irving going away here, despite
101:15your favorite, you know, boomer fantasy analyst still loving Kenny Gainwell because of those sweet, sweet PPR scam points.
101:21But Parker Washington, obviously people are excited about Parker Washington.
101:24I know you're excited about Parker Washington. Which one of these two guys did you go for in a flex in week one?
101:30I mean, in full PPR, wouldn't you lean? Wouldn't you lean Parker Washington here?
101:34Like that's what I want to do. They're projected for more points.
101:38They're facing a, you know, Cleveland Browns defense that no longer has Miles Garrett.
101:42They are eight and a half point favorites. And so while people might say, well, that's just going to lend itself to running in the second half.
101:50Well, guess what? That means you boasted and put up a whole bunch of points in the first half.
101:55So I want to say Parker. But with Bucky's nameplate here on screen, I am curious of what Zach Robinson is going to do.
102:02I mean, this is one of the best, if not the best offensive line in the NFL.
102:07However, every like insider ish podcast that you listen to, like Jordan, Robert, he just brought it up on NFL daily with Greg Rosenthal.
102:14She just continues to repeat that Zach Robinson loves Kenny Gainwell.
102:17He loves Kenny Gainwell. And so Bucky's in this crossroads moment where that rookie season was spectacular.
102:22He made people miss constantly. He got on the edges of defenders last year just was not good from a jump.
102:28And so who is he? Who is he in the NFL?
102:31And I don't think we have that answer yet.
102:33And maybe week one is a step in that direction.
102:36Yeah, I don't think we have that answer either.
102:39So it is a big test point in week one.
102:42I honestly think maybe Parker Washington is like the safer play in your flex spot from a PPR standpoint.
102:47Although look, I still like, I don't know that we fully know how the route percentage is going to go in Jacksonville in week one.
102:54I mean, you know, if it's like anything lower than 80 percent.
102:58Yeah, no, I don't think we do. I mean, the Jacoby Myers injury actually is kind of throwing a wrench in this
103:04whole situation because he's like in a red note contact jersey here still on Thursday.
103:08So if he's like limited in this game, I'm not 100%.
103:11I'm just talking about like I say, I think it goes Parker Washington runs the most routes and then it's probably some form of BTJ Jacoby Myers.
103:19But it still wouldn't shock me if Parker Washington is like a 70 percent route participation, 75 percent and not like 80
103:25plus percent, which I know we're splitting hairs at that point.
103:29But that leaves you more in like wide receiver to wide receiver three world than anything more than that.
103:34Yeah, I mean, I'm just going to try to confirm my priors and say that he's their best wide receiver and he
103:40was drafted as our best wide receiver this year.
103:43And when the three were together, he was last year and all that stuff.
103:47The other thing with Bucky, I mean, again, the Bucks are projected for a healthy 23 and a half points in this game as our team total.
103:55But there's still underdogs here like this game total is one of the highest the weekend right now at 50 and a half.
104:01And, you know, the Bengals are favored by three and a half here.
104:05So if they do fall back by a touchdown or even a little bit more, then isn't that a Kenny Gainwell moment
104:11versus a Bucky Irving moment on top of it?
104:14So maybe that's giving too much credit to, you know, the Bengals reworked defense and Dexter Lawrence.
104:19Can he fix that run defense immediately once going in there?
104:22If you can, if they can shore it up just a little bit, then then yeah, that Bengals team could be much
104:28more complete than they have been over the past couple of years.
104:31Next one comes in from at Flippy Dog Malik neighbors.
104:34I could go with Chris Godwin instead. Josh, I know you're very optimistic about Malik neighbors.
104:39We all want to be optimistic about Malik neighbors.
104:41I will say the person who sounds the least optimistic about Malik neighbors is Malik neighbors.
104:46Every time he gets behind a mic, he wants to calm down every every fantasy analyst out there.
104:51So he said today, this is a quote we're showing on the screen from Connor Hughes.
104:56He said, you know, when it comes to his decision on to play or not, everyone needs to realize quote, it's my career.
105:02So Josh, where are you at right now? Yeah, this came up during the show.
105:07I was reading it live and it sent chills down my spine a little bit based on how many teams I have Malik neighbors on Connor.
105:14He's followed up by saying this is the line where for the first time Malik neighbors made me question if he'll play
105:20who I mean, however, Matt, if, if he wasn't going to play with the giants have just straight up cut Darius Layton,
105:27you know, looking at their depth chart at wide receiver, doesn't Malik neighbors kind of have to play here.
105:32Like they are, he's the only one it's Malachi fields and it's a whole bunch of nobodies after that.
105:38I mean, you have like sure Jalen Hyde and whoever else in the practice squad that you can call up.
105:43But again, when we try to dot connect here, I mean, he, he needs to play.
105:48He should play. It's been great to see, you know, the, the social media clips of him in routes, but that's the
105:54most we have seen him do anything obviously in preseason action.
105:57Yeah. I don't, does he need, does he need to play in week one?
106:01Like he's got a good point. Like personally. Well, yeah.
106:04Okay. And listen, I totally get it. Like I have neighbors on some dynasty teams.
106:08Like, you know, I love Malik neighbors. I want to see neighbors on the field, but he's right.
106:14Like this is his, this is his career. Does he need to go out there again?
106:18They're going to get crushed by the Cowboys, the Superbowl champs of 2026.
106:22They're going to get crushed by the Cowboys in week one.
106:25Do they need him to go out there and run a bunch of routes and, you know, just get frustrated in the first week of the season?
106:33Like, I think it makes sense for them to play.
106:36So like the giants are not going anywhere this year, by the way, like John Harbaugh was behind the mic.
106:41And basically like earlier this week, just set the tone with reporters.
106:45Like, I'm not telling you who's playing in the game.
106:48I'm not telling you what we're doing in this game.
106:51I'm not telling you like the personnel. Like he's like, so don't even bother asking.
106:55And I saw a couple of Ray Ravens reporters being like, yeah, people were on us during the hardball era about how
107:01we just never asked any interesting questions. They were like, this is why the guy is not going to tell you anything.
107:07So I think this is, and by the way, this is exactly how his brother, Jim Harbaugh operates in Los Angeles, you
107:14get nothing out of that building in terms of useful injury information.
107:17So I feel like the guy who's gave us the most caution on this might be the player himself.
107:23And I made this point when he talked about this, I think this was last week where he said, quote, my mind
107:29is focused on playing the regular season, playing whenever that is, even though he admitted like he did the Twitter doc thing
107:35where he's like, yeah, I go and see myself run a routes on social media and I look nice out there.
107:41But, you know, that doesn't mean that I'm ready to play in a football game.
107:45So I don't know, man, like, I just think we've maybe jumped the shark on how early I hope I'm wrong about
107:52this, but I'm preaching caution just in case it goes poorly for neighbors in the first part of the season.
107:57Yeah, I mean, we've seen so many other injuries in training camp go in a negative direction and it's felt only positive for him.
108:04So I think like some of the optimism should have been fair.
108:08Except when he talks. Yes, except when he talks.
108:10Now, Matt, you brought up that the Cowboys are going to crush the Giants.
108:14The markets do not think so. This game is less than a field goal right now.
108:19That's a spread less than a field goal at this moment.
108:22Well, OK, the markets are. Yeah, the markets are simply incorrect about that.
108:26I don't know. I don't know what to tell you.
108:29They're appealing to authority of like it's it's it's our ball and like he's going to fix the Giants.
108:34I don't know what they're doing, but they're they're wrong about that.
108:38OK, well, you might be true. You might be right.
108:40They might be wrong. So, yeah, I just I fear for whatever this passing offense is going to be.
108:46If Malik neighbors doesn't touch the grass because the wide receiver room is is a travesty.
108:50I mean, it would be Odell Beckham back with his blonde highlights.
108:54Once again, being the starting wide receiver for this team.
108:57Malik was asked when he'll know the answer on whether he's not used to play on Sunday.
109:02He said, quote, I'll let God tell me. How does that make you feel, Josh?
109:06How does that make you feel? Back to the Saturday night.
109:09Yeah, I was going to say this is one you're just going to have to take all the way to Saturday.
109:15If it's still like I'll let God tell me on Sunday morning, I might just start Chris Godwin in what's like actually
109:21a nice matchup and not risk like, oh, yeah, Malik neighbors does not play on Sunday night.
109:26Maybe you get Malachi Fields off the waiver wire or something like that, but you're playing it pretty risky in the first game of the season.
109:34It's got to make you feel uncomfortable. Clearly, it makes Josh feel uncomfortable as well.
109:38Okay, let's get to one more here. I want to jump to the last one here at Terry Pagula 69.
109:44Nice. The Bills owner himself got us in the mix here.
109:47You said Kyler Murray and Tyler Warren. I mean, I don't know why you're nervous about putting, you know, Tyler Warren in your fantasy lineup.
109:54I got a lot of Tyler Warren, so we better not be nervous about that.
109:58What are you going to do? Pick up some goofball off the waiver wire?
110:02I don't think so. Put Tyler Warren in your matchup and you're good.
110:06How do you feel about Kyler Murray heading into week one?
110:09This is one of the more interesting offenses, I think, to watch in the first game of the season.
110:15Yeah. Again, on our Sunday night recap show, I mean, we're going to have some instant sweeping conclusions on what Kyler Murray looked like in this offense.
110:22Everyone's going to immediately impart that to the next 17 weeks of the season.
110:26I'm optimistic. I am not the biggest Kyler Murray fan over the last few years.
110:31He would drop his eyes. He would abandon plays a bit too often.
110:34To me, that comes down to like some of trust in, you know, what he was coached to do, trust that the play is going to actually work.
110:42And I hope he trusts it because even talents like Nick Mullins that are far, far, far less skilled than Kyler Murray
110:49would hit their back foot in the face of pressure, throw over the middle for 17 yards over and over and over again.
110:55And if you just trust KOC to go with the football or the play is orchestrated to go to based on the coverage, good things happen.
111:03So I really hope that that's the case here in week one against his Packers defense.
111:07That's probably the weakest it's going to be all season long without Michael Parsons on it.
111:12And so hopefully that, you know, allows Kyler Murray to say, I'm going to stick in this pocket, stick to this spot
111:18and not worry about this pass rush and the green or white jerseys around me.
111:22All right. So there you have it. If you've got a lineup dilemma, trade debate or league controversy, the fantasy hotline is open all season long.
111:30So send us your toughest questions and we might just feature them in an upcoming episode.
111:34And that is going to do it for us today here on the show.
111:38Thanks to our friends over at Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL who are here all season long celebrating the
111:45passion traditions and unforgettable moments that make football America's obsession.
111:48And I'm absolutely obsessed with this preview show with Josh Norris.
111:51And I'm also obsessed, Josh, with our Sunday lineup for you guys throughout the NFL season.
111:55We got fantasy football in the morning with me, Boone, Hayden and Josh bigger, longer than ever.
112:00Okay. So you can find that right here on the YouTube channel at 10 30 AM Eastern.
112:05All right. Be here for all of the hours, all the way up until kickoff.
112:09It's going to be absolutely electric. Can't wait to be driving the bus on that one for at least the first part
112:16of it before it turns into a full social fest, you know, with Josh and Hayden doing all the doing the doing the hard work.
112:23Okay. You guys will be taking questions. I'm like, good luck with that.
112:26All right. Then Josh and Hayden recap show with me and Ray Garvin as well.
112:31Plus the Sunday night football fantasy nightcap with me.
112:33Yes. Hayden is not going to be able to join me with that one because he's going to be on the football
112:40301 live stream with Nate after Sunday night football.
112:42I mean, Josh, that is a packed Sunday slate right there.
112:45Yeah. I mean, Sunday night is one of the true game by game recaps.
112:49So if you miss certain contests that your fancy players are in, you have to tune into that game by game recaps show.
112:56We will have the best one in the industry bar none.
112:59Each of us assign certain games. And so we will give you why XYZ player had this many yards or disappointed.
113:05So tune into that for sure. Tune into that for sure.
113:08It's the Norris guarantee best one in the entire industry.
113:11And then when you wake up on Monday morning, we're going to have every single one of the games covered for you.
113:17Obviously with those on this audio feed plus. Yeah, again, the Sunday night football recap.
113:22And of course, we'll have the panic meter show as well.
113:25So Sundays ahead. My God, it is week one.
113:27We've got football. We've got shows. We'll see you all then.
113:31Until then, we are out.