PodcastFrom Yahoo Fantasy Forecast
Week 1 data dump: Smash starts for kickoff weekend
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 26 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 9, 2026
Published
Wed, September 9, 2026
50
Player insights
41
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldBrian Thomas Jr.Chris BrooksChris GodwinJosh AllenMarShawn LloydParker WashingtonTrevor LawrenceA.J. BrownAlec PierceAllen LazardAmon-Ra St. BrownBrock BowersBucky Irving
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveRole71:04
Matt Harmon and Ray Garvin discuss A.J. Brown's role, noting he is an upgrade for the Patriots' passing attack and expecting more alignment versatility than the team's previous 'X-only' receivers.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
NegativeInjury48:30
Alec Pierce is expected to play in Week 1, but Matt Harmon suggests a 'wait and see' approach due to his injury recovery and his role as a deep threat, which may be limited by the Ravens' zone-heavy defense.
Insight pageAllen Lazard
NegativeBust22:13
Allen Lazard serves as a cautionary tale for week one breakouts; he finished as the WR3 in week one of 2024 but ended the season as the WR60.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveProjection34:08
Amon-Ra St. Brown is used as a historical example of rookie growth, increasing from 4.5 targets in week one to 8.9 targets per game for the remainder of his rookie season.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeProjection38:13
Baker Mayfield was a top-11 QB in EPA per dropback and adjusted yards per attempt in the first seven weeks of 2025, but fell to QB31 in those metrics from week eight onward.
Insight pagePositiveProjection39:52
Matt Harmon expects the best version of Baker Mayfield this season due to improved continuity in the offense, noting that Mayfield is highly motivated while playing for a new contract. Harmon believes Mayfield will outperform current expectations.
Insight pagePositiveValue66:22
Following a three-year contract extension, Matt Harmon views the Buccaneers' offense as 'wheels up' for the 2026 season, noting Mayfield's motivation and security.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeProjection13:18
Matt Harmon notes that Brian Thomas Jr. had a disappointing week one last season with only one catch on seven targets, which served as a harbinger for a disappointing overall year.
Insight pageNegativeProjection20:06
Matt Harmon and Ray Garvin prefer Parker Washington over Brian Thomas Jr. for fantasy upside heading into the season.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection34:02
Brock Bowers is cited as a top tight end who saw his target volume grow from six targets per game in week one to 10.1 targets per game later in the season.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveProjection33:55
Bucky Irving is highlighted as a prime example of rookie growth, increasing from 11 opportunities and 8.2 fantasy points per game to 18 opportunities and 17 points per game late in the season.
Insight pageCharlie Kolar
NegativeRole27:58
Charlie Kolar is listed as the TE1 on the Chargers' depth chart, primarily due to his blocking ability which helps protect Justin Herbert.
Insight pageChris Brooks
PositiveUsage59:07
Chris Brooks is expected to be on the field more than anticipated because the coaching staff trusts him in pass protection more than Marshawn Lloyd, potentially leading to goal-line opportunities.
Insight pagePositiveUsage60:04
Matt Harmon suggests Chris Brooks is trusted more in pass protection than Marshawn Lloyd, potentially leading to a larger role than expected in Week 1.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeUsage40:25
Ray Garvin notes that the Buccaneers' offense struggled with consistency last year due to players like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin being in and out of the lineup.
Insight pageNegativeUsage41:11
Matt Harmon views Chris Godwin as a strong start for Week 1, provided he is healthy. Harmon notes that Godwin is likely to avoid the toughest defensive matchups, making him a viable WR3 option in a Tampa Bay offense expected to be high-scoring.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
PositiveUsage62:01
Matt Harmon notes that while Jalen Waddle may lead in overall volume, Cortland Sutton is a threat to score multiple touchdowns and dominate red-zone looks in Week 1.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveRole64:46
Matt Harmon highlights DJ Moore as a significant upgrade for the Bills' passing attack, capable of helping the offense reach 4,200-4,300 passing yards.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveUsage65:52
Matt Harmon notes the Bills have defined Dalton Kincaid's role, allowing him to focus on receiving duties rather than 100% snap participation, which should benefit his fantasy output.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveRole35:45
Matt Harmon expects Dontayvion Wicks to run more routes than rookie Makai Lemon in week one, emphasizing the veteran's established role.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection70:53
Ray Garvin expects a step forward for Drake Maye in his second year under Josh McDaniels, anticipating he will shoulder the load for the Patriots' offense.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeProjection38:42
Emeka Egbuka's production dropped off after week seven of the 2025 season, mirroring the decline of the entire Buccaneers offense.
Insight pageGeorge Holani
NegativeUsage33:29
George Helani is noted as a goal-line option who may vulture touchdowns from other backs like Jadarian Price, illustrating the volatility of rookie usage.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveProjection10:38
Ray Garvin highlights that Chase finished as the WR31 in week one of 2024 but rebounded to become the WR1 for the remainder of the season, illustrating why managers should not overreact to week one struggles from proven stars.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeUsage33:29
Ray Garvin notes that Jadarian Price carried the ball 16 times in a game, but warns against overreacting if he doesn't score, as rookie roles are often inconsistent early on.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeBust22:29
Jaden Reed is cited as an example of week one volatility, finishing as a WR1 in week one of 2024 but dropping to WR45 for the remainder of the season.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeInjury35:04
Jeremiah Love is coming off a preseason injury, and Matt Harmon warns that he should not be expected to handle 25 touches in week one.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection10:41
Ray Garvin points out that Josh Allen finished as the QB23 in week one of 2023 but performed as the QB1 for the rest of the season, reinforcing the importance of patience with elite players.
Insight pagePositiveProjection63:07
Matt Harmon believes Josh Allen could see an increase in pass attempts under head coach Joe Brady, potentially returning to his 4,000+ yard passing form with better weaponry like DJ Moore.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveUsage49:18
Josh Downs is a strong start for Week 1, as he led the Colts' passing distribution in targets per route run (23.4%) and red zone targets (12) when playing alongside Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren last year.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveProjection28:31
Matt Harmon identifies Ladd McConkey as a clear fantasy starter for the Chargers, noting his role in an offense expected to produce explosive plays.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
NegativeRole34:49
Ray Garvin and Matt Harmon warn against overreacting to rookie usage in week one, specifically noting that Makai Lemon is expected to run fewer routes than Dontayvion Wicks.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeUsage58:53
Matt Harmon and Ray note that while Marshawn Lloyd may see volume, he faces competition from Chris Brooks, who is trusted more in pass protection, making the backfield a committee situation to monitor.
Insight pageNegativeUsage60:04
Matt Harmon believes the team trusts Chris Brooks more in pass protection than Marshawn Lloyd, which could limit Lloyd's snap share and usage in Week 1.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
NegativeUsage15:01
Matt Harmon explains that if Golden runs routes on 80% of dropbacks in week one, he should not be panicked on even if the fantasy production is low, as the role is the primary indicator of future success.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeUsage40:25
Ray Garvin notes that the Buccaneers' offense struggled with consistency last year due to players like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin being in and out of the lineup.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveProjection20:06
Matt Harmon and Ray Garvin both project Parker Washington to take a leap forward this season, with Harmon explicitly preferring him over Brian Thomas Jr. as a breakout candidate.
Insight pagePositiveUsage21:41
Matt Harmon highlights that Parker Washington led the Jaguars' receivers in yards per route run (3.14) and team target share (35%) on limited snaps last season, and Harmon currently ranks him higher than Brian Thomas Jr. for week one.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveBreakout28:38
Quentin Johnston is a strong flex candidate for week one. Harmon compares his potential role to the 2020 Corey Davis season, where he serves as a big-play receiver in a heavy play-action offense.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveValue73:05
Ray Garvin and Matt Harmon strongly advise starting Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1, ranking him as a top-20 back despite a tough matchup against Seattle.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
PositiveSleeper76:03
Matt Harmon and Ray Garvin view Romeo Doubs as a sneaky value play who could see significant short-to-intermediate volume in the Patriots' offense.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveProjection10:48
Ray Garvin notes that Travis Kelce finished as the TE52 in week one of 2018 but went on to be the TE1 for the remainder of the season, serving as a historical example of why week one results can be misleading for stars.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveSleeper31:07
Matt Harmon is interested in Trey Harris's potential role for the Chargers, suggesting he could be a surprise week one breakout player.
Insight pageTre Tucker
NegativeUsage25:15
Trey Tucker had a 54-yard, one-touchdown performance in week one of last year that led to 'maybe he could be a guy' speculation, illustrating the danger of overreacting to early-season production.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection20:37
Matt Harmon is willing to 'jump through the table' for Trevor Lawrence because he is the central distributor for a Jacksonville offense expected to be productive, even if target distribution among receivers is uncertain.
Insight pagePositiveProjection30:37
Ray Garvin and Matt Harmon express confidence in Trevor Lawrence, with Harmon stating he is willing to 'jump through the table' for him because he is the central figure distributing the ball to all the Jaguars' receivers.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeUsage56:33
Trey McBride serves as a cautionary example of chasing volume over touchdowns; he had nine targets in Week 1 of 2024 but finished with only 5.5 half-PPR points.
Insight pageTroy Franklin
NegativeUsage62:23
Matt Harmon warns against overreacting if Troy Franklin gets a red-zone look or touchdown, noting it may just be a situational usage rather than a permanent role change.
Insight pageTyler Allgeier
NegativeDepth Chart35:10
Matt Harmon dismisses the significance of Tyler Allgeier being listed as the RB1 on the unofficial depth chart, calling it training camp engagement bait.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
NegativeBust56:40
Xavier Worthy is cited as a player to be wary of after a Week 1 performance in 2024 where he scored two touchdowns on only four opportunities, as he failed to sustain that production, finishing as WR43 thereafter.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Big show for you today. It is the week 1 data dump with Ray Garvin back and better than ever.
0:06We've got a ton of stuff for you guys to chew on as we head into the opening slate of games, including
0:12a preview for a game that is happening tomorrow.
0:15Yes, the first football game is on Wednesday. What a time to be alive.
0:19Ray and I preview that game in full at the end of the episode.
0:24But before we get to that, we got 10 stats, 10 data points you need to know heading into week 1.
0:30Ray's got some stuff that's really going to help us from a big picture perspective, what to expect, what to make of
0:36some of these breakouts that we will inevitably see in week 1.
0:40Patience to have on the rookies. I've got some more specific things, big reveals that I'm looking for.
0:45Jags wide receivers, the Chargers offense in week 1, all that and more come up on today's show.
0:51Let's get into it. What's going on everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
0:54Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast and it is a hell of a day to talk ball because I am back from the end of summer trip.
1:02Don't worry folks, the rosés were consumed. I'm feeling good.
1:05I'm feeling rested. I'm feeling ready to rock for this football season because we have games to get to this week.
1:11Oh my God, we have never been more back.
1:14Two quick shout outs from the end of summer trip before I welcome in my weekly co-host here on the data dump.
1:20One, shout out to the Stevenson's wedding that we got to attend while we were up there.
1:25Cole and Lindsay, fantastic. Great to see those two get hitched.
1:29You love it for the kids, okay? You love it to see.
1:32You love to see those two. Holy matrimony, the whole deal.
1:35It was fantastic. Thanks for inviting me and my wife.
1:38That was great. My second shout out is to a listener to this show, Jeffrey, who I ran into at Capstone Vineyards,
1:45gave me several great recommendations, including another great vineyard.
1:48So as you guys can see, my brain is still sort of maybe kind of halfway on the end of summer trip.
1:54But let's welcome in the man of the hour here, my weekly co-pilot for the data dump show to get the rest
2:01of my mind rocking for football right now. That is my guy, Ray Garvin.
2:05Ray, what's going on, buddy? What's going on, Harmon?
2:08I just want to share with the people that watch this show live, listen to it after the fact.
2:13One day we are going to convince the producers to just kind of pre-record the things that we discuss behind the scenes.
2:20Time travel, walking shoes, a little TJ Bass conversation in the pre-show.
2:23It's good times before we get on here. But in all seriousness, Matt, I just want to say watching you guys live, great, great production.
2:31You guys rocked it with the live show. So I hope everybody that got to see you guys really appreciate that because
2:37watching it behind the scenes, just top notch production, very entertaining, very engaging and very knowledgeable.
2:42So y'all absolutely rock that, man. Well, I appreciate that, dude.
2:45And I mean, look, we've all had a great run here in the preseason, including our live Yahoo Fantasy League draft, where
2:52it was the most watched show of our entire YouTube channel's history.
2:56It was absolutely incredible. It's been a great run of preseason content, Ray.
2:59And that is going to leave us with kind of a lot to top here as we get into the regular season,
3:06because as I said, man, we have a game.
3:09We have games to discuss, not that are just happening this week.
3:12We've got a game literally tomorrow on Wednesday, which is a game we will be previewing at the end of this show because it's Patriot Seahawks.
3:20It's a Super Bowl matchup. We got some fantasy storylines to unpack.
3:23But before we get to that, we have if you guys were with us, last season, you know this, you love it.
3:30It is the data dump here. Five points from each of us, the 10 things, the 10 stats you need to know heading into every single week.
3:38We've got that for week one. So without further ado, let's get into the week one data dump.
3:43Yes, science. My calculations are correct. You're going to see some serious.
3:47Reviewing like in a big picture sense or are we getting specific here?
3:51And it feels like you and I took two very different paths to this.
3:55I know you've got specific themes for your five data points.
3:58I went with kind of like the big reveals I'm looking to see in week one.
4:03So kind of unpack how you approach this and give us your first data point.
4:08Yeah, I mean, it's week one. And as much as we've gone through this entire process, talking about players, talking about schemes,
4:14projections, like we really kind of don't know anything until we get some actual football taking place.
4:19So I think that's the it's a great kind of compliment.
4:22Right. Because for me, I'm just looking at what to expect going into week one.
4:27There were some things that I did last year, Matt, after week one of the regular season to where I don't want
4:33to make those same mistakes this year. And we'll talk about a player in particular.
4:38So a lot of my data points are around themes, right?
4:41Themes with players, themes with outcomes, themes with teams.
4:44But more importantly, I think we can both everybody watching this, you and I can point to specific real life examples of
4:50where these things kind of played out in a positive and a negative light.
4:55And then for you, I mean, we've got players that we've got to talk about, man.
4:59It's football is back. So I think that's that's the way I knew you would hit some players.
5:05So I was like, let me get some common just general themes to manage some expectations as we go into week one.
5:11I like that. So managing expectations, kind of setting the table here for how we can properly react to week one, because
5:18that's going to be the biggest challenge when we do this show and all the shows next week is how do we
5:24balance what we were expecting to see coming into the season versus sort of these big week one reveals.
5:30So our guy Ray Garvin here is going to help us keep in some realism.
5:34So, Ray, what is your first data point that the people need to know heading into week one?
5:40Yeah, big theme here is something we should all know, something very simple, but proven stars are always, always, always better bets than week one breakouts.
5:47And, you know, we spend the entire offseason trying to figure out who these players are, Matt.
5:53And then week one, one bad Sunday makes us question everything.
5:56It's the most reactionary reaction to the fantasy season happens after week one.
6:00Everybody's either right or everybody's either wrong. I took a look at fantasy finishes over the last 10 years, 2015 to 2025.
6:06And when you look at that, 51% of prior year fantasy starters who disappoint in week one return to starter status very quickly after that.
6:14Whereas 28% of those surprise week one stars, those surprise week one starters, their resume does not warrant that long-term sustainability for those guys.
6:21And when you start to put names on it, one of the ones that I did this with last year was Kayshawn Booty.
6:28Had a great week one, opened up strong. And then you see it tailed off.
6:32It wasn't like he was a complete zero down the stretch, but he wasn't what he was early in the season.
6:38Jamar Chase in 2024, wide receiver 31 in week one.
6:41He was wide receiver one after that. Josh Allen in 2023.
6:45QB 23 week one. QB won the rest of the way.
6:48Travis Kelsey. Tight end 52. Tight end won the rest of the way back in 2018.
6:53Those are like real week one results from some big-time fantasy studs.
6:56The thing to always remember is if a receiver or a running back is still getting opportunity, the receiver's running the routes,
7:03they're getting the targets, you can live and be okay with one inefficient afternoon.
7:07If there's an injury or something of that nature, then that changes the projection moving forward.
7:12But before you get to the point where you want to cut, sell, or be done with a struggling week one starter,
7:18just pump the brakes a little bit. And don't get sucked into that hive mind of Twitter saying that I was right, everybody was wrong.
7:26I told you it was Luther Burden, not Romo Dunze.
7:29Like, no. Proven stars are always better than just the pop-up week one, you know, surprise fantasy guy in the start of the season.
7:36Now, this is a great point, and it dovetails into something that I always kind of bring up here on the show.
7:42Adam Harstad, great writer from Football Guys, brings up that through the first four weeks of the season, is still more predictive
7:49than, like, the current fantasy points up to the first month of the season.
7:53From then on, though, it's like, okay, that's when you need to sort of accept the new reality.
7:58Kind of actually one of the guys I'm going to be talking about here in a moment was Brian Thomas Jr.
8:05And remember, like, he had a disappointing week one.
8:07I believe he had no – I think he had one catch on seven targets, but he scored a rushing touchdown.
8:14So it was kind of like, what do we do with that, you know?
8:18But then another game happens week two. It's a really disappointing outing against the Bengals.
8:22And that was, like, week one was kind of a harbinger of what was to come, which was a disappointing year for Brian Thomas Jr.
8:30But to your point, you need to see it stack over at least two, maybe three weeks before you start to kind
8:36of really panic on these guys, even though, of course, we will talk on the Panic Meter show about just exactly how much panic we should have there.
8:44To your point about some of these guys that disappointed week one, it really does come back to, all right, did a
8:51guy come out there and not have the role you were expecting, right?
8:55Did this receiver that you were really hoping kind of was going to be a breakout special, you know, a seventh-round pick
9:01that you were going to take – like, let's use Matthew Golden from the Packers, for example, somebody that we talked a
9:08lot of – we actually talked about on the Bold Predictions show with Josh and Boone.
9:13If he comes out there – I don't think this is going to happen – but if he comes out there and
9:19he runs, you know, a route on 40% of the dropbacks or something like that, that would be concerning for people who
9:26think he's going to have a breakout season. But if he comes out there, which is what I'm expecting, he runs around
9:32on, like, 80% of the dropbacks, he's a full-time player, he just doesn't have a lot of fancy production.
9:38Ray, that's not something that people should panic about.
9:41You nailed it. The role, the deployment, if it's inefficient, if Golden's out there 80%, 90% of the time, and it just
9:47happens to be a game where he did not produce in that one, I'm not as concerned.
9:52This is the true – I didn't see it coming.
9:55Nobody was talking about him. And you look at the – because the box score is deceiving, right?
10:01The fantasy points at the end of the day are very deceiving.
10:04You can see a high point total, and then you start to look a little deeper.
10:09And only 30% of the routes. The dude was only on the field for 25% of the rushing share.
10:15But, you know, he found his way to the end zone or scored or had a big play.
10:20Just do not overreact to those type of outputs in week one.
10:24The proven resume players, Matt, you know it, I know it, and I hope our viewers and listeners can appreciate this as well.
10:30Those are the ones you want to continue to bet on.
10:34The guys that we are expecting to take a leap forward, they kind of don't fit in that true surprise shock category, right?
10:41If Camden Brown came out there for the Dallas Cowboys and had a couple of big plays and scored two touchdowns, I'm
10:47not rushing to – he needs to be on your auto start list the next week.
10:52Yeah, let's even use maybe a more realistic example.
10:55If like Ryan Flannoy catches two touchdowns in week one, but George Pickens has two catches for 30 yards or something, but
11:01he still has the same old role. That wouldn't be like, oh yeah, Ryan Flannoy over George Pickens rest of season.
11:07I don't think we have to worry about our users necessarily feeling that way.
11:11Actually, just one to kind of bring it back to the Kayshawn Booty point because that was a fun debate you and
11:18I had where I feel like we were kind of both right in a way and maybe both wrong in a way
11:25about the week one Kayshawn Booty breakout from last season.
11:28Because you were right, like he held that usage all season long.
11:31He was the starting X receiver for the team and my point was just like, yeah, he probably is going to be
11:38volatile like he'll have his moments because he's not quite totally fit to be a high volume player consistently in that role.
11:44And that's where really, again, this is the data dump show, but Ray, this is where it also comes back to like
11:51why watching the games is so important too. And it's why it's another variable in both of our processes because, you know,
11:57production can be one thing, but can a guy sustain that to me, that's always going to come back to like how good is the guy at football?
12:06Kayshawn Booty is clearly a pretty good player to some degree, but there's a reason he's no longer on the New England
12:12Patriots roster and they were pretty content to move on from him.
12:16So that's the thing that I think we'll have to be really intentional about with these week one surprises is okay.
12:22Like, yes, the stats are the stats and you're going to be joining us.
12:26We'll be doing the week. We'll be doing the weekly recap shows together all season long on Sunday.
12:31You know, that's a little bit more reactionary in the moment, but, you know, kind of take the heat of the moment away from it.
12:39Week one Monday, you know, the whole film recaps, all that.
12:42That's where we can kind of uncover the truth of the matter, in my opinion.
12:47A hundred percent nailed it. All right, let's get to my first data point here.
12:51And this is a big reveal that I'm looking forward to already talked about one of these players.
12:56What are the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers going to look like in week one?
13:01I looked at the 159 snaps in six games where all three of Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jacoby Myers were
13:07all on the field together last year. Again, 159 snaps, 127 to 126 routes for these guys in six games last year.
13:14This is regular season and playoffs included. Yards per route run, pretty distinct advantage to Parker Washington there, as you're seeing on
13:20the screen if you're watching with us on YouTube.
13:23By the way, if you're watching with us on YouTube, as I mentioned, these videos have been crushing it lately.
13:29The production value has been great. Go ahead and subscribe to the channel if you're watching with us on YouTube.
13:35Anyways, Parker Washington, 3.14 yards per route run. Brian Thomas Jr., 1.38.
13:38Jacoby Myers, 1.2. Team target share, 35% for Parker Washington, 18% for Brian Thomas Jr., 22% for Jacoby Myers.
13:44If you look at the alignment, it's a pretty clear slot-heavy.
13:47Parker Washington, 64% of snaps. Brian Thomas Jr. in the slot, 24%.
13:51Jacoby Myers, about 28%. Pretty clear slot X, Z between those three receivers.
13:55Ray, I am really curious in week one as they face the Cleveland Browns, which is the beginning of a pretty brutal
14:01schedule for the Jags to start the year from a pass defense standpoint, particularly some of these perimeter cornerbacks you're going to be facing.
14:08I'm really curious to see what the roles look like in week one for this team because I guarantee you that is
14:15going to provide a lot of overreactions one way or another.
14:18This has to be one of the more interesting outcomes that probably most of fantasy football is looking forward to.
14:24Now, we did get a little bit of clarity, Matt, with Travis Hunter because it seems like he is going to be a primary defensive guy.
14:32But when it comes to Washington and Brian Thomas Jr.
14:35in particular, and I think I saw you talking about this the other day, I think we've gone too far in the
14:41Brian Thomas is a bad player direction because I don't think he is.
14:45And there has to be a happy medium between what he was as a rookie versus what we saw last year.
14:52And also that knife cuts the Parker Washington way, Matt.
14:55He didn't do much to start the season. You can cherry pick certain games on the back half of last season, but
15:01then you can't deny everything that you've heard, everything that we've read and some of the things that we've seen on social
15:08media about how much Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence really, really do like Parker Washington.
15:12If this is an offense that we expect to be good, if Trevor Lawrence is a quarterback that we expect to push
15:19for, you do remember he was in MVP consideration last year.
15:22There's got to be a world where both of these guys can thrive together.
15:26But I'm with you. I want to know who's going to be the guy.
15:30Like, let's not straddle the fence here and they'll both be good.
15:34I want to know who the one is going to be.
15:37So I am fascinated by this one with Parker Washington, Brian Thomas.
15:41And then the one that we never talk about how Jacoby Myers is going to fit into this, Matt.
15:46He may not be as dynamic as the other guys, but damn, he's going to get thrown the ball.
15:52He's going to run routes. He's going to be on the field.
15:56And nobody talks about Jacoby Myers, who's just the epitome of a good player.
16:00This is a, this is one I'm very interested to see to how this plays out.
16:04The absolute most hilarious outcome is without a doubt.
16:07You know, we, the, the, the routes and the playing time is exactly what I just highlighted there between these three guys,
16:14where it is a very clear, like slot X, Z.
16:17They're all on the field. Again, you know, route participation is pretty close between the three.
16:21And then Jacoby Myers just, yeah, he comes out there with nine targets, eight catches, 88 yards and a touchdown, you know,
16:28because I think there's been a lot of talk on Twitter about, well, the, the, the cornerback slate that Brian Thomas Jr.
16:35has to face. And we'll get into that in just a second.
16:38But yeah, it's, it starts off obviously tough with theoretically, if he's going to be the primary X receiver, which was the
16:45point I was making to your, you alluded to this.
16:48I was talking about this this morning on social media where it's, yeah, he's going to be the primary X of this offense is Brian Thomas Jr.
16:56But I, I don't, I think we've jumped the shark with the sacrificial X receiver stuff as I've talked about.
17:02And I say, this is the guy who came up with the term sacrificial X.
17:06So I feel like I'm, you know, qualified to say this.
17:09We've jumped the shark with the sacrificial X receiver stuff.
17:12Cause I don't think he's going to be a sacrificial X and what do I think he's going to be an exclusive X.
17:19And I posted this earlier today about just the, like, if you look at Mike Evans, his role as the primary X
17:26in 2024 and Liam Cohen's offense, it definitely wasn't sacrificial.
17:29And it definitely wasn't X only. He was in the slot about 28% of the games I chartered for him that year.
17:35I think BTJ could do that still though. Nevertheless, one, he's probably not as good as Mike Evans to also, you know,
17:42look, it's still the X mostly player. He's going to get a lot of these tougher cornerback matchups like a Denzel Ward in week one.
17:49So I do think from a brass tacks perspective, BTJ theoretically is much more of a volatile player than a guy like
17:56Parker Washington or maybe even Jacoby Myers. Like that's, that's my point here is that Myers is probably going to get some
18:02of those same favorable matchups that you'd project for Parker Washington too.
18:06And week one, who do you have higher that?
18:09I just, I think I want to know the people want to know who do you have higher?
18:14Who do you think it's going to be? Do you think it's like just gut feel on this one?
18:20Do you think it's Washington? Do you think you think it's Parker Washington?
18:23So do I, I think it's, yeah, I think it's Parker Washington.
18:27I have him, you know, just again, like I'm trying to flip from pre-draft to like week one rankings brain right now,
18:34which has already been a stretch, but I basically finished it with, I had at the beginning of the off season.
18:40And my thought was it'll be BTJ as the, you know, nominal one here.
18:44He's the one I'm going to rank the highest because as an X receiver, he's never going to leave the field, even
18:51when they go to heavy personal packages. But the reporting that, yeah, Travis Hunter is going to be a primary defensive player,
18:57but when he does play receiver, he's going to mostly play on the outside.
19:01To me, that leaves, you know, BTJ snaps, maybe a little bit more vulnerable.
19:05So I ultimately, because of that flipped him and Parker Washington, but ultimately kept those guys in the same tier, right?
19:12And that was my point on BTJ was that yes, while it is again, this grueling start here, as we're showing on
19:18the screen, Denzel Ward, Pat Sertan, Christian Gonzalez, Quinlan Mitchell, Derek Stingley Jr.
19:22We'll see again how much he is going to, how much those guys will shadow, how much he's going to just mostly play on the outside.
19:30Because as a rookie, he did play a lot of Z receiver kicked into the slot, the whole deal.
19:35Last year, I'm mostly willing to give him a pass for how he played because he just wasn't healthy the whole time.
19:42But I ultimately did flip those two guys, kept them in the same tier.
19:46But the thing about, you know, BTJ, like I mentioned, even in the Yahoo Fantasy League, I drafted BTJ.
19:52People hated that pick, like great draft all the way around except the BTJ pick.
19:56Anytime I talked about in the last couple of weeks, people were just, they don't want to hear about BTJ.
20:02I do think we've maybe jumped the shark on some of the BTJ negativity.
20:06But ultimately right now, heading into the season, my final answer is I do think it'll be Parker Washington, BTJ.
20:12And then, I mean, look, if Myers outscores either of those two guys, it wouldn't totally shock me.
20:18It's just like from an upside standpoint, fantasy wise, I get why he goes a little bit later.
20:23Agreed. And I'll just say, I think, I think Myers is going to be probably a little bit better.
20:29And that's kind of annoying because he is just a good player that the coaches probably trust.
20:34But I'm with you with Parker Washington over Brian Thomas Jr.
20:37And all of this is why I did say in our live show in Buffalo, why I'm willing to jump through the
20:44table for Trevor Lawrence, because he's still going to be the one that throws the football to all of these guys.
20:50If we can't figure out the distribution, but we still expect it to be a good offense.
20:55Sounds like that's a quarterback that you might want in fantasy football.
20:58OK, Ray gets to your second point here heading into week one.
21:02Yeah, it's a great segue from talking about wide receivers to talking about breakouts here in week one.
21:07And this is the thing at receiver, Matt, you know this one play can completely change how a box score looks.
21:14You know, you get one 70 yard touchdown pass and the guys right at the top of the weekly finish ranks.
21:20And I love those points to give me the long touchdown play.
21:23But when you're trying to figure out is the breakout truly sustainable or is it not?
21:28Again, the subset that we're looking at is the last 10 years, 2015 to 2025.
21:33Wide receiver week one breakouts are by far the least reliable.
21:3639% of week one top 24 wide receivers stayed inside that top 24 after that.
21:40I'm not segmenting out your elite guys. 39% of the top 24 in week one, they stayed there after that.
21:46Whereas 52% of week one top 24 running backs, they stayed inside that top 24 after that.
21:51So when you're talking about these week one breakouts, I could have given me, you, the producers, five hours, Matt Harmon, to
21:58look at the ADP from 2024 and tell me who finished as wide receiver three week one of that season.
22:04And I guarantee you, none of us would have figured out who it was.
22:08None of us, I had, I was looking this up and I was like, I don't believe this.
22:13I got to go to the game log. In week one, 2024, the wide receiver three on the week was Alan Lazard.
22:20Alan Lazard had close to 100 yards, two touchdowns, wide receiver three, not a wide receiver three, the wide receiver three.
22:26And then he finished as wide receiver 60 on that season.
22:29Jaden Reed in 2024 was a wide receiver one in week one, wide receiver 45 after that.
22:35So when you're looking at those breakouts after week one, everybody's going to rush to social media, rush to YouTube, rush to
22:41their articles and talk about this guy's the new breakout wide receiver.
22:45I would just want everybody to keep in mind that only 39% of the people that we see inside of that top
22:5124 at that position remain there the rest of the way.
22:54And then that just dovetails back into the first point.
22:57It's probably a lot of the known stars or the players like a, like a, like a Parker Washington that we're projecting to take that leap forward.
23:05Right. So just keeping things in perspective, running back a little, little better hit rate, you know, 52% after week one, stay in there.
23:13And that kind of makes sense because you're probably using a running back in a specific role.
23:18They're getting the rock. They catch the ball in the backfield.
23:21But be very, very, very careful with the week one breakout wide receiver and without any data, I'm sure you could speak to that as well.
23:29Oh yeah. And I mean, you mentioned the, how the running back rate is higher.
23:33That's just because there's fewer of them. That's the thing with receivers is I bring this up all the time.
23:39There's too many good ones. There's too many good receivers in the NFL right now.
23:44And especially because there are more teams playing all these heavy personnel packages.
23:47You're going to see even fewer opportunities for the wide receiver threes and fours in the offense right now.
23:53Cause the route share will be limited. That was the big story.
23:57Feels like we have talked about it less and less just as we've begun to preview this season.
24:02But that was the big story from the 2025 season, Ray, was that like wide receiver two scoring was really down and
24:09it flattened out to wide receiver twos and threes because a lot of these just number ones consolidated the targets as teams one through less.
24:16And, you know, also again, played more heavy personal packages, which pushes those targets to the wide receiver one.
24:22There's a lot of variables behind it, but that's a big part of the story as well.
24:27So it's just a reminder. And I know we know this and probably a lot of our viewers and listeners know this,
24:33but it is a reminder that wide receiver scoring is just, it's like this man.
24:38It's up, it's down. Like guys have big weeks and slow weeks.
24:41You mostly know the names that you can trust.
24:44You just got to be willing to ride the wave with most of your wide receiver twos and threes.
24:50And it just, the fact that it happens in the first week or the last two weeks or whatever, it means nothing,
24:56but we try to get more signal from that than we probably should.
25:00And it happens every year. Like you see that and you're like, wow, that, that receiver, I mean, he broke out week one surprise.
25:07Yeah. And then you, you look up two, three weeks and I know it wasn't the three touchdown, 145 yard performance that Trey Tucker had.
25:15I think it was week three of last year, but in week one, he was 54 yards and a touchdown.
25:21And I know it wasn't a lot of volume, but what we ended up saying is man, maybe he could be a guy.
25:27Maybe he could be a guy. So when it comes to that position and you, you touched on something, Matt, that will
25:34also be quite interesting to follow is what does it look like with the heavier personnel packages, more tight ends on the
25:40field, lack of wide receiver threes on the field.
25:43Like it could be even more volatile after those kinds of top elite established number one, number two options.
25:49It's, it's going to be interesting to track the receiver position this year in relation to everything we've heard about offenses and
25:55how they want to deploy things this year. Yeah.
25:58I think we've already got a couple of things like put a pin in and come back to for the week two
26:05data dump, like Jags receivers, which teams are playing more heavy personnel and how that might affect their receivers.
26:10But yeah, there's no question. Just receivers are ride the wave position for most of these guys.
26:15There's going to be a lot of ups and downs unless you're like one of two or three players that are just metronomes every single week.
26:23I could tell you a couple of receivers that I do think are going to have a big week one.
26:29Frankly, probably the running game is going to have a big week one.
26:33That's the Los Angeles charges who face the Arizona Cardinals in week one from week eight on last season.
26:38The Cardinals allowed the seventh highest explosive play rate, 18.6% and the fifth highest missed tackles force per reception 0.18.
26:44According to fantasy points data from this one, they faced the charges in week one.
26:49And the reason I wanted to bring those two stats to the table Ray, because for the most part it is the same.
26:56Nick Rollins is coming back as a defensive coordinator.
26:58They're going to be healthier on that side of the ball this year.
27:02Frankly, they can't be any less healthy than they were in the back half of last year where they were just like brutalized by injuries all year long.
27:11Still, structurally, probably going to look pretty similar on that side of the ball this year, the Arizona Cardinals.
27:16But when I think of a Mike McDaniel offense, I think of guys like Ladd.
27:21I think of guys like QJ. I think of guys like Amari and Hampton, who's on the screen right now.
27:27I think of explosive plays. And I think of plays in the open field yards after catch moments.
27:32Cardinals were not very good at that last year.
27:35The Chargers have a great opportunity to get off to a hot start here in week one.
27:40They absolutely should. I like pieces that the Cardinals have.
27:43But overall, like this offense, the expectation is for them to come out hot.
27:47This is year two for Amari on Hampton. We've talked all about McDaniel and the offense and what he's going to do with Herbert.
27:54We've seen their investment up front, even with them naming Charlie Kolar as the starting tight end today.
27:59I know a lot of or let me say this tight end one on the depth chart.
28:04A lot of that is because he's a great blocker, right?
28:08He can he can help protect Justin Herbert and help create those explosives with this offense.
28:12I don't know. I'm not here to talk about where the Chargers are going to finish inside the AFC West.
28:18Then they push for the playoffs. But an offense that we expect to score and produce points like that, it should look
28:25pretty damn good here in week one. Yeah. I mean, obviously, Ladd McConkie is a fantasy starter for you.
28:31Obviously, Amari on Hampton is a fantasy starter for you.
28:34So the guy that could be really interesting is Quentin Johnson in week one.
28:38Like if you drafted Quentin Johnson as kind of your possible flex wide receiver, you know, maybe a wide receiver four on
28:44your team because he went so late in drafts.
28:47And, you know, you just you're planning to kind of play a little bit of committee at that wide receiver three spot for your fantasy team.
28:55This is a good week to break ties in favor of Quentin Johnson where we're talking about explosives.
29:00We saw him get down the football field in the preseason game for a deep reception.
29:05We know he can make plays with the ball in his hands.
29:08I think he fits this offense really well. I think QJ is going to be one of those guys like up, down, up, down, up, down.
29:16But I think week one is probably an up week for him.
29:20Let me tell you what about QJ. When he caught that thousand yard touchdown pass in that preseason game, it was the
29:26first time, Matt, where the ball was in the air.
29:29You knew it was going to QJ where I was confident that he was going to catch it.
29:35Like, I was like, oh, he's got this. And I really think that that play right there because they took the starters
29:41off the field after they scored that touchdown. I think that's going to do a lot for Quentin Johnson.
29:47Like, the confidence that he probably has. He's gotten better every year in the NFL.
29:51He seems to be breaking the stigma of bad TCU wide receivers.
29:55It might be some, you know, I'm looking at this.
29:58I'm looking at the tweet now. He's got some traits like Andre Johnson.
30:02I'm not going that far, Matt Harmon. But what I think is we could get the best version of QJ this season.
30:08Yeah, the comparison that I made for QJ, and this actually does show up in one of his comps in the RP player comparison tool.
30:16I think Quentin Johnson could have like a 2020 Corey Davis season.
30:19Remember that year where both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis were top five in the NFL in yards per route run playing for the Tennessee Titans.
30:27Heavy play action, heavy personnel offense. And obviously, A.J.
30:30Brown was the one, but Corey Davis was, he had I think over 10 yards per target that season.
30:35It was a lot of big plays down the field off these heavy play action shots.
30:40To me, I feel like this will probably be a situation where both of these guys are super efficient.
30:46Ladd is the one. Quentin Johnson is kind of that big play two receiver.
30:50Now, the Titans didn't have like almost anybody else.
30:53I think Khalif Raymond was on that roster in terms of the wide receiver position.
30:57There are some interesting guys in L.A., you know, Brennan Thompson.
31:00You've got Trey Harris and everything. I'm interested to see what Trey Harris's role could look like this season for this team.
31:07Trey Harris wouldn't surprise me just based on this matchup.
31:10He's one of those random week one breakouts. Be like, what's going on, Ladd?
31:14What's going on with QJ? It's like, Trey Harris ate their lunch in week one.
31:18But yeah, I do think ultimately that's sort of the comparison of the type of season I think QJ could have.
31:25And I think this week one game is a good start for him.
31:29And you are putting it in the atmosphere now because now I can't unsee two touchdowns from Trey Harris and us having
31:35to come on here next Tuesday and talk about the routes that Ladd ran and QJ and going through that.
31:41But here we are. Week one is right around the corner.
31:44It'll be friggin' Brennan Thompson because I dropped him from a dynasty roster this morning to make room for blowing a bunch
31:51of my fab on Marshawn Lloyd who was on the waiver wire.
31:54So, yeah, it'll be Brennan Thompson in week one just because I did that.
31:59Okay, with that, let's take our first break. When we come back, we're talking more data points you need to know heading into week one.
32:06We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
32:09We're continuing to go through data points you need to know heading into week one.
32:14Ray Garvin, you are up with point number three.
32:16All right, Matt. We eased into the data dump, right?
32:19It's our week one, right? We're just now getting into the offense, but now we're clicking.
32:24It's halftime is over. Let's talk about a group of players that everybody surely will not overreact to.
32:30Rookies, all right? And rookie opportunity, y'all, it expands as the season goes on.
32:34Not right when the season starts, okay? We draft rookies because of what we think they can become.
32:39And then we get frustrated when it doesn't happen in their first NFL game or their second NFL game because we expected
32:46Makai Lemon to go out there and lead the team in receiving, to be a dominant weapon, to get more targets than Dontabian Wicks.
32:53And if it doesn't happen, then they suck. They're bust.
32:56They're no good. Why did we draft them? Why did all you people say start Jadarian Price tomorrow versus Seattle?
33:02And George Helani got the goal line touch. Well, let me give you some data here.
33:06Let me give you some data. Week one compared to weeks 10 through 17.
33:11So week one compared to 10 through 17. Running backs historically get an increase of production at a 55% clip.
33:17Running backs and receivers, about 55% opportunity growth as the season goes on.
33:20Tight ends, Matt Harmon and all you beautiful people, 80% growth from the tight end position from week one to weeks 10 through 17.
33:28Quarterbacks, 87% scoring growth from week one to 10 through 17.
33:31So yes, the veteran player is probably going to be on the field early and often to start the season.
33:37They're trusted. They know the offense. The coaches just, they flat out just trust them to be on the field more.
33:43But as time goes on, that rookie, if they are good, if they are able to earn a role and opportunity, they
33:50will manage their way through that fray and become consistent producers for you in the long term.
33:55Bucky Irving in 2024 went from almost 11 opportunities and 8.2 fantasy points per game to 18 opportunities and 17 points per game late.
34:02Brock Bowers, the best tight end in football. About six targets a game, week one, six targets in week one to 10.1
34:08targets per game, weeks 10 through 17. Amin Ross St.
34:11Brown, 4.5 targets in week one to 8.9 targets per game the remaining part of that season.
34:16So just, again, expectations, managing these, and especially with this group of player, Matt Harmon, the rookies, and you know what's going
34:23to happen tomorrow night if Jadarian Price doesn't score, it's George Helani, but Price carried the ball 16 times.
34:29We see this every year, but y'all be patient.
34:31Be patient. Week one is not the end all be all.
34:34Rookie usage and opportunity, y'all, it grows throughout the season.
34:37Oh, I mean, this is such a good point, and I feel like this is true every year with rookies, Ray, and
34:44it's especially true with the rookies this year, man.
34:47Nate and I are doing a deep dive onto the rookies tomorrow for our first edition of Dynasty Debate, so I don't
34:53want to kind of give too much of my thoughts away on that one, but I think overall looking at this class,
35:00Ray, if you're drafting rookies this year expecting week one massive eruption spot, I just think, bro, you're doing it wrong.
35:06There's not a lot of rookies, and I'm expecting a lot of early season contributions from even Jeremiah Love because he's coming off of the preseason injury.
35:14I don't care that Tyler Algiers listed as the RB1 on the unofficial depth chart.
35:18I can't believe we're doing week one unofficial depth charts.
35:21Hello, that's training camp. Leave the engagement bait on that stuff.
35:25Back in training camp, we're talking about real football right now.
35:28Come on, give me a break. All right, so with that out of the way, still, even Jeremiah Love, you can't expect
35:35him to come out there and candle 25 touches in week one because he has a plate.
35:40He's been banged up, and beyond that, Ray, the receivers, you mentioned Makai Lemon.
35:44There's no way. I fully expect Ontavian Wicks to run more routes than Makai Lemon in week one.
35:49This class especially, you've got to be drafting these guys expecting the slow burn.
35:53Let's talk about the hottest rookie. I mean, even De'Jon Stribbling to a degree, Matt.
35:58Oh, yeah. If it's Evans and Debo and Demarcus, I need people to truly take a step back and calm down, relax, take a deep breath.
36:06Because if he does this, what's on our screen, three for 33, you know, Matt, B, you, Strib Club is closed.
36:12Nobody's going to the Strip Club. It's the geriatric Strip Club.
36:15Like, we don't even want to see that. Like, he's 33 yards for Stribbling.
36:19Makai Lemon on punt return. Algier out carrying. Jeremiah Love.
36:22Like, I know this seems like fantasy football 101, but we talk about it every year because it happens.
36:28Yeah. Every single season when the veteran outproduces, when Wicks is on the field more, running more routes, why did we draft this guy?
36:35He stinks. I'm cutting him after week one. Don't do it.
36:38Exhibit some sort of patience with these guys. And like you said, especially in this class.
36:43Yeah. And the real actual takeaway there is also if these guys aren't on your team, but the Makai Lemon manager or
36:50the Stribbling manager is panicking if they have a slow week one, be the person that's the wolf.
36:55You know, go out there, take advantage of the sheep.
36:58Maybe trade for those players. And maybe that's less useful in Dynasty, but certainly in Redraft for sure.
37:03And yeah, to your point about Stribbling, man, this is why I always say, always makes me nervous when these guys get
37:10into like the main character of fantasy Twitter hype cycle, even if we've certainly contributed to it on this show.
37:16I mean, I think about Parker Washington. Like if Parker Washington has 900 yards this season, people are going to be like, wow, you guys are idiots.
37:24That would be like a very nice season for Parker Washington to have 900 yards when he has 1300 yards in his NFL career.
37:31For Stribbling, if he starts out a little bit slow but has a big end of season, that would be totally expected.
37:37So just always makes me nervous when these guys get into the Twitter hype cycle like that because the expectations can become unrealistic.
37:44But like I said, we're going to talk more tomorrow about the rookies with Nate.
37:49So I don't want to just give a bunch of my feelings away on that.
37:53But great point by you, Ray. Always exhibit some patience with these rookies.
37:57You're drafting them for the end of season, midseason run.
38:00Not as much of what they're going to do right away.
38:03Okay. My third data point here heading into week one.
38:06And again, I'm focusing more on specific situations here.
38:09I wanted to talk about Baker Mayfield weeks one to seven in 2025.
38:13EPA per drop back QB 11 in the first seven weeks.
38:167.91 adjusted yards per attempt. QB 11 in the first seven weeks.
38:20Baker Mayfield week eight on. QB 21 in EPA per drop back and 5.98 adjusted yards per attempt.
38:25That was QB 31. So this was a guy that was playing or at least producing like one of the best quarterbacks
38:32in the NFL in the first eight weeks, the first seven weeks of the season.
38:36Ray really dropped off after that. We know also Emeka Buka dropped off from a production standpoint after that.
38:42The whole Bucs team just kind of fell apart from that point on.
38:46I don't know, man. I look at this week one matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals who, look, if they're the 27th best
38:52defense in the NFL, Ray, that would be a massive leap for the Cincinnati Bengals.
38:57I think they could be better, but how much better?
39:00That's a question. Again, they play the Bengals in week one, do the Tampa Buccaneers.
39:04New offensive coordinator, Zach Robinson, Falcons offensive coordinator last year.
39:07The Falcons led the NFL with 1,491 passing yards with a receiver in motion at the snap last year.
39:13This is according to fantasy points data. By the way, they put out their new data suite today.
39:18Really great stuff. Shout out to the guys on the team over there.
39:22It's very, it's very, very useful. Super awesome stuff.
39:25The Bengals defense gave up a league high 1,153 yards last season to a receiver in motion at the snap.
39:30I'm expecting to see a lot of that from the Zach Robinson offense.
39:34I'm expecting to see a lot of that overall with Tampa Bay this year.
39:39I think the Bucs could sneakily be a team that puts up more points than any team across the league in week
39:45number one, leading to maybe some overreactions. We'll see how it plays out the whole year, but I expect the Bucs to
39:52get off to a hot start this week. Yeah, and I'm not here for like narrative season, but Baker's got a lot to prove this year.
39:59I think a lot of the success of this team, as much as we like to talk about Emekit Buka and Bucky
40:06Irving, no, it starts and stops with number six.
40:09It's Baker Mayfield. He's playing for a new deal, whether that be in Tampa Bay or elsewhere.
40:14And I think people underestimate how difficult it is in the game of football to adjust game plans when you've got players in and out, right?
40:21Whether that's you're trying to integrate a rookie in a Bucca last year.
40:25You got Evans sometimes. Then you got Godwin part-time.
40:28Then you got Tess Johnson, who's his skill set is completely different than everybody else.
40:32So having some semblance of continuity coming into the season, you're going to get the best version of Baker Mayfield in this offense that they can put out.
40:41I do like having Kenneth Gainwell there. I think people are a little low on Bucky Irving as well.
40:46But talking about Baker in this Tampa Bay team, like it's go time.
40:50It's go time for Baker. It's go time for the offense.
40:53And I think there's a lot of pressure on a lot of folks inside of that organization to get this thing right.
41:00So you need to start off hot. And a lot of people aren't talking about them as much this year.
41:06But you might be right. Like, I do think Baker is probably going to be a little better than people expect.
41:12And he's got a lot of motivation behind why he should.
41:15Yeah, this is just an offense I got higher and higher on over the course of the preseason, including Bucky Irving, who you mentioned.
41:23It's an offensive line that is one of the best in the NFL, even to the point, again, if you're looking for actionable takeaways for week one.
41:31You know, Chris Godwin, I was a little concerned with what we saw on film last year as he was coming back from an injury.
41:38But if he's healthy and he's had a clean offseason of health, like week one is a good opportunity to start Chris
41:45Godwin, who is probably going to avoid DJ Turner, who's one of the best.
41:49If not, well, you know, he's the best defensive player.
41:52Maybe this side of Dexter Lawrence, who, of course, the big addition for Cincinnati.
41:56But he was definitely the best player on the 2025 Cincinnati Bengals defense.
42:00So Chris Godwin might even be like a good wide receiver three start if you're looking for like, how can these points
42:06that I'm expecting Tampa Bay to trickle down over the course of this roster?
42:11I think Chris Godwin is a good name to mention.
42:14But actually, high scoring week one teams, Ray, I think the Bucs are going to be one of those teams.
42:19You've got a point for your point number four here on those high scoring week one teams.
42:25Yeah, what a what a pro, Harmon. What a pro because I was going to try to set it up, but you did it for me.
42:32And yes, this next data point is about teams and offense and high scoring stuff.
42:37A really interesting point that I thought we would all appreciate on this one.
42:41But we spend so much time in the offseason deciding on which player to chase.
42:45And, you know, we can't overlook these offenses as a collective and as a whole.
42:50And if a team comes out and hangs 30 points up in week one, I wanted to take a closer look at that.
42:57And here's what the evidence says across 20 the last 10 years, 2015 to 2025, 59% of the teams that scored at
43:03least 30 points in the opener finished as a top 12 scoring team that season.
43:08They averaged 25.1 points per game the rest of the way.
43:11That gives us an 11 season sample size, whether the big opening scores carry useful information.
43:16And that doesn't mean every team that hangs 30 points in week one is going to be a top 12 offense.
43:22But we're right around a 60% clip. One of the ones that failed us last year, Matt, can I give you one guess?
43:29One guess on a team that put up 30 points in week one last year that was not good the rest of the way.
43:36Not good at all the rest of the way.
43:39Any guesses, Matt Harmon? I'll give you this. AFC.
43:41AFC team put 30 up in week one last year.
43:44I'll give you AFC East, Matt Harmon. May AFC East.
43:47Did the Dolphins do it in week one? No.
43:50The Jets. The other bad team. The Jets. The Jets.
43:53The Jets Steelers, right? It was the Steelers game.
43:56Oh, dude. I remember that game because it was literally the first one I charted for Garrett Wilson.
44:01I was like, oh my God, Garrett Wilson's role is so good in this offense.
44:05And Justin Fields was hitting some of those intermediate inbreakers that I didn't know.
44:10And that was like, oh, well, the Steelers secondary is a joke.
44:13So that would be why that happened. There it is.
44:16There it is right there. But when you look across that 10-year sample size, if a team comes out there and puts
44:23up 30, right around 60% of the way, you've got a top 12 scoring offense.
44:27And when you get into those situations where you're trying to decide between player A versus player B, use that as a layer.
44:34Like, look, this is probably going to be a good offense.
44:37I want to bet on a good environment. I want to bet on a good situation.
44:42And if you gave me a coin that was weighted 60% one side, 40% the other side, I will take that bet every single time.
44:49So just one of those interesting data points that I found that I'll be paying attention to, and it'll probably be one
44:56of my data points next week, is which teams did hang 30 points up?
45:00And can we project them or at least have the expectation that those are good offenses moving forward?
45:05But I thought that was really interesting information for this one today.
45:09No, this is a great, great stat by you.
45:12A great pull here. Because yeah, it's one of those things where do you want to cling to your priors or kind of accept the new reality?
45:20And some of those teams that score a bunch of points in week one, it's kind of, wow, do we buy that or do we not?
45:27These are the teams that are projected over 25 points this week.
45:31The Chargers, who I mentioned earlier, the Lions, the Bengals, the Rams, the Ravens, the Cowboys, and then the Bears are right at 25 points.
45:38This is the live lines. We're showing some of the opening ones on the screen, but the live lines right now, again, it depends where you look, whatever.
45:47So those are the teams 25 or over. So those are some of the ones we're looking at in terms of could
45:53they be like all those are we would kind of expect, you know, to be really good offenses.
45:59Maybe the Ravens are perhaps the most undervalued of that group right now.
46:03But we're expecting all of those to be pretty good offenses.
46:06I think the more interesting one will be like the surprise 30 point performances from the first week of the season, which
46:12like I mentioned, I think Tampa Bay is on my radar for that.
46:16A team that did this last year, Ray, was the Indianapolis Colts, right?
46:20Like, I mean, they hung a bunch of they hung up.
46:23See, this is what I was remembering. They hung a bunch of points up on Miami and it was like, well, the Dolphins are going to stink.
46:31That was kind of a mirage. It's Daniel Jones.
46:34We don't expect that to continue. And then the Colts quite literally, they went on to before Daniel Jones started suffering the injuries.
46:41They were a historic like on historic pace from points per drive perspective.
46:45So this is a great stat by you ready to remind us like, hey, if you see a team come out there
46:51in week one, usually there's at least like there's a better than 50 50 shot.
46:56There's some sustainability here. Well, let me give you the quick stats of the other side.
47:01Teams that open below 20 points had a 29% top 12 rate and averaged 21.7 points per game after that.
47:07So there is an opposite end of the spectrum, like below 20, 29% chance that that offense after week one is going
47:13to finish at a top 12 rate. So it'd be interesting to see which surprise ones come out of there.
47:19And yes, the Colts still averaged 27 points per game after that big week one explosive week last year.
47:25You said below 20 was the number? Yep. Below teams that open below 20 points in week one had a 29% hit
47:31rate at being top 12 offense the rest of the way.
47:35All right. So these are the teams that are below 20 right now projected point totals in week number one.
47:40The Falcons, the Jets, the Cardinals, the Dolphins and the Browns.
47:44So those are our ones that were on the kind of watch to see if they can maybe beat those odds.
47:50Get over 20 points. Get over 20 points. Beat your historic odds there on that one.
47:55Okay. I mentioned the Indianapolis Colts that again, we're on a good run of transitions here.
48:00That gets us to my fourth data point here heading into week number one.
48:04Sounds like good news, you know, since we've last podcasted, which feels like 100 years ago now at this point, like one
48:10Labor Day wine trip and, you know, maybe 100 rosés between now and then.
48:14But it's been quite a you know, I walked the rosés off people.
48:18Okay. Don't worry about it. Don't worry about it.
48:21I'm good. I'm feeling fine. But anyways, it feels like a long time since we podcasted because it has been.
48:27But we did get some good news at Indianapolis.
48:30Alec Pierce looks like he's ready to go for week number one.
48:33He's going to be out there in human form.
48:36Again, he's going to be 100 percent. Well, Antoine yet.
48:39You don't know. Okay. That's my question. That's my that's my question.
48:42A human being named Alec Pierce will be on the football field in week number one for the Indianapolis Colts.
48:48Is his ankle going to be up to snuff to be Antoine in week one?
48:53Or is it going to take like maybe a couple of weeks to get to Antoine Pierce?
48:58We'll find out. But he will be on the football field in week one.
49:02A human being named Alec Pierce will be on the football field in week one.
49:06So, again, whether we expect him to be 100 percent or not, it's kind of a separate question.
49:12With that, I wanted to look at what the passing distribution looked like for the team on 398 snaps last year when
49:18Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Tyler Warren were all on the football field together.
49:23Obviously, Michael Pittman was in the mix here. He is no longer on the team.
49:27We could sort of kind of sub him out for Alec for excuse me, for Keenan Allen, who I kind of expect
49:34him to play the Z receiver role, which is what Michael Pittman was last year.
49:38So 398 snaps together. I thought this was really interesting that the targets per route run went 15.8 percent for Alec Pierce,
49:4523.4 percent for Josh Downs, 19.3 percent for Tyler Warren and 18.8 percent for Michael Pittman.
49:49Our guy Josh Downs, the only one over 20 percent.
49:52Now, Alec Pierce was, of course, super productive because of this massive air yards per target that we're showing on the screen here.
49:5917.98, almost 18 air yards per target. Josh Downs, 8.4.
50:02Tyler Warren, 5.8. But really, the targets went to Josh Downs, 27 percent target share in this group of snaps here.
50:08The key for Downs is like he just has to play more.
50:12He also had 12 red zone targets on these snaps, which was almost more than double than Pierce in second place with seven red zone targets here.
50:20I think this is fascinating for week one, Ray, because they play a Ravens team with Jesse Minter now installed as the
50:26play calling head coach on the defensive side of the football.
50:30Man, the Chargers under Jesse Minter, and we'll see what they look like with a new group of players in the whole deal.
50:37But they played some of the best zone coverage in the NFL.
50:40I think that's going to really kind of limit Pierce in week one coming back from an injury as this pure deep
50:47threat when all these guys are on the field together.
50:50So Pierce, I think he's going to play. He'll be out there.
50:53Probably a guy like I want to give it a week, wait and see with him.
50:58I think Downs, though, could eat a ton of targets, almost 10 percent first downs per route, which was, again, best on
51:05the team of these three guys and Michael Pittman as well when they were all on the field together.
51:10So I feel like Downs is a pretty good start this week.
51:14Pierce is a guy maybe I'd give it a week on.
51:17A hundred percent agreeance with you. He is not Antoine yet.
51:20We cannot go that far. And I just want to say, I feel like we were all taken for a ride a
51:27little bit because the day before he came to practice, there was a video of him and Downs walking.
51:33And I mean, it looked like Pierce was limping around.
51:35Then the very next day, he's on the practice field and they're showing highlights of him jumping up, catching the ball in the end zone.
51:43I'm thinking, what? I thought the dude's leg was about to fall off.
51:47So again, maybe something we revert to next year that maybe we just take some of the preseason training camp injury stuff with a grain of salt.
51:55But neither here nor there. I think week one to feel great about him, it's probably a little too optimistic.
52:01If you're just telling me, Ray, you got to bet on the volume.
52:05You've got to bet on the opportunity. It would be Josh Downs, Tyra Warren and Jonathan Taylor.
52:10And I just want to see Pierce get through the game, play, play, play a little bit, get through the game healthy.
52:16And then we can reassess week two, week three and beyond.
52:20But good for him being back on the field.
52:22I do not feel confident enough yet, even with the contract, his role.
52:26You can tell me he's going to be the lone receiver on the field in 13 personnel.
52:31And I'm probably in wait and see mode with Alec Pierce week one.
52:35Well, I mean, yeah, that air yards per target, like even if he's on the field for every snap, he's going to
52:42be the deep receiver between all these guys. Like obviously, it ain't going to be Keenan Allen.
52:47It's probably even if downs, I think the air yards per target can come up to like nine or ten ish, maybe even if it's just an eight.
52:55I think that would be solid for him. Tyler Warren 5.8 air yards per target.
52:59Like Alec Pierce is going to be the deep threat of these three guys and Keenan Allen, the mix as well.
53:06So that's even going to make him a little bit more volatile week to week.
53:10If you drafted Alec Pierce, you got to know even if he's fully healthy, whatever, he's going to be a rocky ride on a week to week basis.
53:18But last point I just wanted to make here because you said this before we go to break.
53:24I mean, I was kind of saying this during like August throughout the whole preseason process.
53:29Some of the reaction to injuries has just been insane this year.
53:32I think it's crazier than I can ever remember.
53:35And I certainly have like my, you know, dark brained social media, you know, doom side of this, like algorithm based stuff,
53:41you know, some some accounts leaning into engagement. I can go down that side of it for sure.
53:47Nobody probably wants me to spend 15 minutes talking about that here on the YouTube channel.
53:51I will just note, though, there are several situations, Ray, where it's like if we just skipped all of August from an
53:58injury perspective, maybe not like the Abuka one, the Pierce one.
54:01Shoot. How about the Panthers backfield where it's like if you had told me a month ago, it's like Chuba Hubbard is
54:08going to be out there in week one and Jonathan Taylor or Jonathan Taylor.
54:12Jonathan Brooks might be a little banged up. It's like, yeah, that that would be about what I expected.
54:18And there's just this massive Chuba Hubbard hamstring injury.
54:20Like if we just never reacted to that, would we have been better off?
54:24I think we might have been better off. Another topic for another day, but I agree with you and I'm guilty of it myself.
54:32Right. And I think totally we just get we get so much information so quickly.
54:36We we have to make a definitive stance on that.
54:39And you look up now and oh, gente might play and it's not as bad as we've it just another topic for another day.
54:46But I think you are very much right, my friend.
54:49Yeah. Listen, if you podcast every day in the month of August, as present company included does, you're going to say some things you regret.
54:57You're going to overreact to things for sure. But I like to think that we kept a pretty level head about some
55:03of these things throughout the month of August. But definitely something to note once we get some of these week one results
55:10in Alec Pierce's role included, because that is one I'm certainly excited to see here in week number one.
55:15All right. We are going to take a quick break.
55:18We come back. We've got more things you need to know and coming up on our kickoff game preview here.
55:24We'll get into that right after this. All right.
55:27Coming down the homestretch here of our pre week one data points.
55:31Ray, give me your fifth and final data point that people need to know heading into week one.
55:36Yeah. Fifth one volume, volume, volume. I always say a player has to be on the field in order to get an opportunity to score me fantasy points.
55:44And that's what I'm chasing. I'm chasing opportunity here come week one.
55:48Touchdowns are what a lot of people remember. Who scored the touchdown?
55:51Who got in the end zone? But I want to know how many chances a player had before that touchdown happened.
55:58And shameless plug for our Sunday show. We will be talking about this stuff on that recap show.
56:03Harmon is like opportunity. Who scored versus what the actual role looked like.
56:07High volume, no touchdowns in week one. High volume players, but no week one touchdowns.
56:1110.9 fantasy points per game. Afterwards, they had a 51% starter rate.
56:15So players who had low volume, but a week one touchdown.
56:186.5 fantasy points per game afterwards. And a 17% start rate.
56:21Okay. One more time. High volume, no TD. 11 points per game.
56:25Low volume. Scoring a touchdown in week one. Around seven fantasy points per game thereafter.
56:29So we've got real life examples of players. Trey McBride in 2024.
56:33Nine targets week one. But he finished with just 5.5 half PPR points that week.
56:37He was tied in for the rest of the way.
56:40One of my personal favorites. Xavier Worthy, week one in 2024.
56:44Had not one, but two touchdowns. On only four opportunities in that opener.
56:48Wide receiver 43 after that. So just when we get to week one and you look up in the box score and your favorite player didn't score.
56:56And it was Trey Harris. It was George Helani.
56:58It was whomever, right? Ryan Flournoy in Dallas. Make sure you're chasing and following the volume, the opportunities, the routes.
57:04Because historically over the last 10 years, 11 points per game after that.
57:08Seven points per game for the one that scored the touchdown in week one but didn't have any volume.
57:14So just, again, follow the volume. Opportunity matters. Yeah.
57:16And to make another plea to watch the games.
57:19I mean, that Xavier Worthy week one in 2024.
57:22I remember one of those was kind of like a little bit of a busted coverage that he scored a touchdown on a deep play.
57:29It was like, how many more deep plays has Xavier Worthy hit on in his entire career since then?
57:35Not very many. And, again, that's not all been his fault.
57:38Certainly some of it has been his quarterback's fault as well.
57:41But, you know, that was like not a sign of things to come for Xavier Worthy there, that week one kind of performance.
57:48And, yeah, we get that all the time. And so it's like watch the games.
57:53It's follow the volume, of course. Like, Ray, as we're kind of dancing around this topic because it's been like a bit
57:59of a theme, you know, with some of yours here.
58:02Are there any players? I know it's hard to predict touchdowns.
58:06By the way, this is like why touchdowns really matter in a half PPR format.
58:10Yeah. You know, like we could talk about these Mickey Mouse receivers that are going to get gadget touches and pile up catches and a lot of stuff.
58:18It really helps to be involved around the goal line.
58:21It really helps to be involved around the goal line, catch touchdown passes.
58:25Touchdowns are still good per my math. Are there any players that are like are on your radar that could be one
58:32of these kind of, hey, he doesn't score like in week one.
58:35The volume could be there. Do you have any like just a gut feeling on anyone that's like on your radar, either good or bad in this regard?
58:44I've said it a couple of times on this show, and it's a game that we'll preview here shortly.
58:49This is your Darian Price thing. I keep bringing up Price.
58:53I keep bringing him up. I keep bringing up because I think that is one where he scores.
58:58You talked about Marshawn Lloyd a little while ago.
59:01I'll just say personally, I think Chris Brooks is going to be on the field a lot more than people expect.
59:07And if he were the one to fall in the end zone week one, it wouldn't shock me either.
59:12But again, if I look up and it's Marshawn Lloyd with the volume and the opportunity, even though they said it's going
59:19to be a committee, you really do have to pay attention to the volume.
59:23You can't just look at the end of the day, who was the wide receiver one through 24 and just start to make decisions out for that.
59:31I mean, Rashid Jaheed, remember the start that he got off to a couple of years ago in New Orleans?
59:37It's like, oh my God, they may have found a Tyreek Hill-esque player.
59:41And it's like, no, the volume, he's just not getting enough for that to sustain.
59:45There are countless examples of players that I think could score this week, but may not have that type of volume.
59:52So you just got to be careful and don't fall into that trap.
59:56Dude, the Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks one, that's perfect.
59:58Okay, because you look at that matchup in week one in Minnesota against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense.
60:04I would just guarantee you right now that team trusts Chris Brooks in pass protection more than they trust Marshawn Lloyd.
60:10A hundred percent. So I think Marshawn Lloyd, he comes out.
60:13Look, even if this is the week one projections, as we're showing on the screen right now, 12 carries, two catches.
60:20Obviously, we'd look at what the share is there.
60:22What percentage of the backfield is he? What snap percentage?
60:25All that stuff. That actually would be kind of fine for me if he led the backfield with 14 carries.
60:31But, oh, Chris Brooks played a lot. And, yeah, he snuck past the goal line one time.
60:36That would be a perfect one where I'd be saying on the week one panic meter show, because I know Marshawn Lloyd, like I would.
60:44Maybe it's definitely not a full panic for me.
60:46Okay. It wouldn't be a full panic if that was the result.
60:50Yeah. But this is the exercise you have to go through with whatever players you're invested in, because it will happen.
60:56It's going to happen. Oh, my God. Let me throw another one out there while we're dooming people in week one.
61:03Rashad White, Ja'Cory Kroski, Merritt, week one in Philadelphia against the Eagles.
61:06I could totally see, like, Rashad White's the trusty pass protection back.
61:10I think the Commanders will be in a trailing game script against the Eagles.
61:14The Eagles defense is awesome. You know, maybe Vicks cooked up a couple more blitzes.
61:18Merritt's is with no Laramie Tunsil, the whole deal there.
61:21We're keeping Jaden Daniels upright in the opener. Okay.
61:24Sunday, 425 Eastern. We're keeping Jaden Daniels upright. Rashad White is playing more than Ja'Cory Kroski, Merritt.
61:29I would even throw the Jags backfield out there.
61:32Obviously, it's a different. No Jim Schwartz, no Miles Garrett in Cleveland, but still a tough matchup against the Browns defense in week number one.
61:39Do we see more of, like, Chris Rodriguez out there than Basial Tootin?
61:43I mean, I think that's possible, but still, again, Ray, that will be up to us.
61:48On the post-week one, the pre-week two data dump showed, it's like, go through the kind of nitty-gritty of the snaps and the backfield rotations and everything.
61:56Mack, I'll just give you one name that cuts to your heart that you could just...
62:01Your receiver leads in everything. He leads in everything.
62:03But Cortland Sutton's the one that scores two touchdowns, right?
62:06He's the one that gets the red zone looking in every...
62:09Not because I'm with you, right? It's Waddle. But you could see that happening where Sutton goes out there, catches the touchdown.
62:16Waddle does everything else. But now we're panicked, right?
62:19Like, relax, folks. Relax. Oh, my God. Don't even put that into the air.
62:23The real scary thing is, like, Troy Franklin gets into the mix and scores a touchdown.
62:28Because then all of the dudes on Twitter who are like, see?
62:31Can't trust Sean Payton. Can't trust Sean Payton. Troy Franklin getting a look in the red zone.
62:36It's like, I tried Franklin on the field for, like, two routes.
62:40It just happened to be that way. Look at the route share for Jalen Waddle.
62:44I don't know why we're doing this to ourselves heading into week one.
62:48We're already, like, pre-panic. We're pre-packaging the panic meter show for ourselves coming out of week one here.
62:53So, I'll end us on maybe a little bit of a, I don't know if it's a positive note or just something I'm interested to watch.
63:01The last two years, the Buffalo Bills have been 18th in neutral dropback rate under Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator.
63:07However, Ray, I kind of think this one goes up because there's just been, like, just enough buzz out of Buffalo that,
63:14yes, Joe Brady, you think, like, what's going to change?
63:17He was the offensive coordinator. Now he's the head coach.
63:20What's going to change? He's been running his offense the last few years.
63:24Well, what's going to change is, like, the buck stops with him.
63:27He's the head ball coach of the Buffalo Bills now.
63:30We also know, you know, Nate calls it the substitute teacher effect because he's Josh Allen's guy is Joe Brady.
63:36I mean, Josh Allen literally sitting in on the damn interviews for the head coaching position in Buffalo.
63:42He's the most important person in the franchise. His guy gets to be head coach.
63:46You don't think there's maybe going to be a slight thumb on the scale of the past attempts.
63:52This is one of the more, you know, interesting week one reveals that I am super fascinated to watch coming out of
63:58week number one because, again, results aside, they play the Houston Texans in week one to do the Buffalo Bills.
64:04Okay? Could be rough. All right? Maybe not. Might be a slow-paced, low-scoring game.
64:08As we're showing on the screen right now, Josh Allen, 0-4 as a starter in Houston, never scored more than 20 points in any of the games.
64:16That's actually less of what I'm interested in is the results and more of the process of what the Bills' offense looks like in week one.
64:24You know, do some of these storylines we've been kind of talking about on the show, whether it's, you know, you've got
64:30a, hey, a more pass attempt involved, more passing game involvement to the running backs, right?
64:35Like James Cook is catching more passes. You know, you've got Dalton Kincaid maybe playing more snaps than we're used to seeing.
64:42You know, DJ Moore holding down like a true wide receiver one role.
64:46If that all comes to play and they're throwing the football a little bit more, I think we could get some big
64:52stuff coming out of this Bills team here in the 2026 football season.
64:56Every way that I ran my projections over at DD, it's got the Buffalo Bills as one of the best offenses in the NFL.
65:03And I'm looking at Allen the past two years.
65:06You're talking about a player sub 4,000 yards passing.
65:09He's been right around like 3,600 yards a season the past two years.
65:12But Allen is capable, capable with the right weaponry around him and the ability to launch the ball.
65:18He has what, four straight? One, two, three, four from 2020 to 2023.
65:224,500 yards, 4,400 yards, 4,300 yards, 4,300 yards. 30 plus passing, 35 plus passing touchdowns in just about every one of those seasons.
65:28And the thing that is different to me that he didn't have the past two years, what he had during that four-year period, he had Stephon Diggs.
65:37And I am not comparing this version of DJ Moore to that version of Stephon Diggs.
65:41But this version of DJ Moore is better than anybody they've had in the building over the past two years.
65:47Yes, I do think that people are maybe underestimating how good this offense can be.
65:52I think they've figured out who Dalton Kincaid is.
65:54Like, he's not a Travis Kelsey, so there's no need to have him on the field 100% of the time.
66:00We've got Dawson Knox. Let him just go be a receiver.
66:04Get James Cook the ball in multiple ways. We've got a DJ Moore here.
66:08Again, he's capable of having a 4,200, 4,300-yard season.
66:10And this is going to be one of the better offenses in the NFL.
66:15And I think it's the Brady. It's the DJ Moore effect.
66:18I'm very much with you on this one. Breaking news into the show here.
66:22Before we go to break and we preview Wednesday night football, according to Ian Rappaport, surprise, the Bucs and star quarterback Baker
66:29Mayfield are in agreement on a three-year contract extension to lock him up right before the season.
66:34Ray, we were just talking about this. So thank God it happens before the show is over so we don't look like clowns.
66:40You know, Baker's got a lot to play for.
66:43Well, I guess he doesn't have anything to play for.
66:46You know, because he got the – obviously, he still has quite a lot to play for, of course.
66:52Two things before I toss to you to get your reaction here.
66:55And it's pretty much just on the tweet. One, three – all reports I've seen on this is from Tom Pellicera and other folks as well.
67:03Everybody's saying three years. Nobody's telling you the money, which means I think this is probably a little bit of a team-friendly deal.
67:10Although, I'm sure Baker got a good bit of what he wanted.
67:14But that's thing number one. Number two, look at this picture of Baker.
67:17I've been saying this all offseason. He's looking good.
67:20Okay? Looking pretty trim. Face is looking good. You know?
67:23You tell you what. Mm-hmm. I know this personally.
67:26When you lose weight, first place you see it is in the face.
67:30Okay? I don't know if Baker – I don't know if Baker's routine is going on here, but I like it.
67:36He's coming in – he came into camp motivated.
67:38That is for sure. I don't know if he's – I'm sure he'll still be motivated at the three-year deal.
67:44I'm sure he will be because he's a professional football player, the whole deal.
67:49He's still got – he's always got a little chip on his shoulder.
67:52You know, that's the Baker Mayfield experience. Looking good coming into the season.
67:56Got his money. Wheels up for the Bucs offense here, Ray Garvin.
68:00What's your reaction to this news? I mean, how do you feel after payday?
68:04You all feel great. You feel great. After you get paid, the money's hit your account.
68:09By the time you get to the end of the month, you're ready for the next one, right?
68:14Good for Baker Mayfield. I think he enters the season feeling good.
68:18This is – you've had multiple conversations with professional football players.
68:21I have as well. And this is – this weighs, right?
68:24Like, they could say it doesn't matter as much as they want, but long-term security, making sure that paycheck is in tow
68:31for the long term is very important for him.
68:34So to get this done prior to the season, I mean, everything that we said, I still think Baker, just what we've
68:40seen from Baker, has got a lot to prove and still was a chip on his shoulder.
68:45But good for him, and I think this is even more wheels up for this Tampa Bay offense.
68:50Go get it, Baker. Yeah, I like the security, the certainty.
68:54And you mentioned – look, you sign a contract, you want to go out there and prove that.
68:59Or prove that the investment was worth it. I know we all feel that way.
69:04That's how anybody that's worth their merit should feel, and I think Baker Mayfield will as well.
69:09So, yeah, glad that happened before the show is over so that we could address that and not look like complete idiots here.
69:15But, yeah, shout out to Baker. Shout out to the Bucs.
69:19This is a team I'm really excited to watch here in 2026, and I do think will be a good fantasy football offense as well.
69:26Okay, we're going to take our final break of the show.
69:29And when we come back, we have a real deal football game to preview.
69:34We will get into that right up. All right, we are back.
69:37And as promised, we got a football game to talk about because Wednesday night football.
69:42Wednesday night football, Ray Garvin. Can you believe it?
69:44That doesn't quite pop as much as Monday night, Sunday night, Thursday night.
69:48But you know what? It is a thing that's happening.
69:51Our Super Bowl rematch, our first game of the season will be happening on Wednesday.
69:56Patriots, Seahawks, again, the Super Bowl matchup here. Seahawks are at home, the three-and-a-half point favorites.
70:00Kind of a lot to unpack with these two teams here, even though, again, the most recent football game that counted for
70:07something, we saw these two teams play each other, and it was a rousing win by the Seattle.
70:12Seattle Seahawks. Let's focus, actually, on the Patriots side of things before we get to the Seahawks, because I feel like there's less certainty on that side here.
70:21One, we do know for certain, though, that Travion Henderson is not going to play in this football game.
70:26So, Ramondre Stevenson, really curious to hear what you think about him in this one.
70:31Patriots passing game. Just kind of give me your expectations of what you're looking for on this Patriots offense against a tough Seahawks defense.
70:38Yeah, I hope they're a lot better than the last time we saw these two teams face off with one another.
70:44They were the last game we saw on there, the first team we're going to see now.
70:49I expect to see a step forward here for Drake May, first and foremost.
70:53I expect to see a more—I want to continue to see that passing offense be explosive.
70:58Drake May pushed the ball downfield last year at an incredible clip, and he was doing that without an A.J.
71:04Brown, without a Romeo Dobbs on this offense. So, it starts at that quarterback position.
71:09You get him another year inside of this Josh McDaniels offense.
71:12He should feel more comfortable. You've got a true number one wide receiver.
71:16Despite how we might feel about him on the scale of how he's been relative to the past, A.J.
71:21Brown is an upgrade in that passing attack. So, I expect to see Drake May shoulder the load for this New England
71:28Patriots offense, and I expect him to put up points even in a difficult matchup against a very, very tough defensive opponent in Seattle.
71:35Yeah, I'm so fascinated to see this offense because going back and charting both Kayshaun Booty and Kyle Williams last year, this
71:42is kind of a crazy stat, Ray, and I have this in the Kayshaun Booty reception perception profile.
71:47There have been four receivers that I've charted out of almost 600 in RP history, 2014 to current, that have taken more
71:53than 90% of their charted snaps outside and on the line of scrimmage, four seasons out of almost 600.
71:59Two of them were members of the 2025 New England Patriots, Kayshaun Booty and Kyle Williams, as those ex-only players.
72:05Kayshaun Booty, third highest go-route rate in reception perception history.
72:08Kyle Williams, fifth highest go-route rate in reception perception history.
72:11So, are we going to see A.J. Brown be a 90% outside on-ball player, like running all the go-routes?
72:17That would be, I think, a pretty bad role for the current version.
72:21I think that would be a bad role for any number one receiver.
72:24So, I kind of tend to doubt that that's what it will look like.
72:29I think we'll see more alignment versatility for A.J.
72:31Brown. Does that mean Kyle Williams is going to play maybe more than we're expecting?
72:36Does Josh McDaniels just view that? By the way, if you go back to, I didn't chart this guy, but I looked at PFF data for this.
72:44Nelson Aguilar was like 93% outside and an over 30% go-route rate in the 2021 season with Josh McDaniels with the New England Patriots.
72:51So, very curious to see what does A.J. Brown's role look like in week number one.
72:56The good news is that if you're looking at the Seahawks defense, one of the few questions that you could ask is like the outside cornerbacks, right?
73:04Because Devin Witherspoon does kick into the slot a good bit at times.
73:08You know, we've got now, we've got Josh Jobe who's a good player for sure.
73:12You know, so they obviously lost a corner to the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency as well.
73:17Tariq Wolland. So, what does that like outside cornerback spot look like?
73:21We could see A.J. Brown even he's run a bunch of go-routes, right?
73:24Catch one deep one on this team. Well, it doesn't look like they're going to have their enforcer Nick Emanwari either.
73:31The all-world kind of stud safety last year. I think there's another safety that's a bit banged up.
73:36And you said it, like Witherspoon is great, but he's kind of a nickel, chaos-inducing, blitz him a whole bunch.
73:42The offensive alignment is going to be fascinating because I do think that Kyle Williams, we roll out there tomorrow night on
73:49Wednesday night football, and they're in 11 personnel and it's A.J.
73:52Brown in the slot, it's Romeo Dobbs on that Z, and then Kyle Williams on the other side as that X to stretch.
73:59It's going to be fascinating to watch this, and then we haven't even talked about the backfield with Henderson being out, Matt.
74:05Yeah, Henderson being out is a big one. Stevenson, you know, look, if you drafted him, like, this is the time to start.
74:12Ramondre Stevenson. I know it's, again, not maybe the best matchup in the world.
74:16The Seahawks might be the most ferocious run defense in the NFL, at least they were last season.
74:22Leonard Williams continues to get it done, you know, at this point in his career.
74:26But, like, Ramondre Stevenson almost has to be ranked in your top 20 backs this week.
74:31So if you drafted Stevenson, this is certainly the week to go ahead and say, like, yeah, we don't have to worry about the committee.
74:38Don't have to worry about any of that. Like, make sure you get Stevenson into your lineups.
74:43And I'll just say this with the Stevenson thing.
74:46If you did pay attention to the training camp reports and all the beat reporters and the coaching, it kind of felt
74:53like it was going to be a lot of Stevenson regardless of injury.
74:56It felt like he wasn't a 1A, 1B. Like, that's the RB1 and Henderson has a role.
75:01So Stevenson was good in the receiving game last year.
75:04Matt, he needed to hold on to the doggone ball, but he was involved in the receiving game.
75:10Like, yeah, he's RB16 for me on the week.
75:12So I am – you're firing him up. Seattle Seahawks be damned.
75:16You got to play Ramondre. No doubt about it.
75:19I mean, it's kind of crazy that we still finished fantasy draft season, at least on most platforms, with Stevenson going behind Travian Henderson.
75:26And now Henderson's not even going to play in week one.
75:29Like, if you really play this out from a – I don't – you know, we're already fear-mongering here, Ray, and it's
75:36not even – we haven't even got the first game of the books yet.
75:40But if you really play this out for Henderson, like, clearly didn't play well enough – like, number one, he didn't play
75:46well enough last year to get the job. They trusted Stevenson, had like over 70% of the backfield touches, the snaps, the
75:53whole deal in the playoffs leading up to the Super Bowl.
75:56Pretty important games for the New England Patriots. They didn't play well enough in the offseason to wrestle the RB1 job away
76:03from Ramondre Stevenson, who's a damn good player in his own right, so that's not like the worst thing in the world.
76:09But now he's going to start the season banged up, and this is already a coach in Mike Vrabel who, like, rolled
76:16his eyes at times about, like, Christian Gonzalez's injury history, a guy that they just gave a bunch of money to because
76:22he's one of the best cornerbacks in the game, and this is like a backup running back who's maybe annoyed them in pass protection.
76:30So, like, if you really doom this out for Henderson, starting off the year banged up, not exactly what you want for
76:36a guy who needs to push for RB1 duties anyways.
76:39And it's very concerning that this didn't just pop up this week.
76:43He's been on the report for, like, two weeks now that this thing has been lingering, whatever it is.
76:48Like, this is no panic meter today, right? This isn't the panic meter show.
76:52But I'm very, I'm on edge a little bit with Travion Henderson right now.
76:57This is not good. Yeah, I was already kind of a Henderson skeptic, and I bought into Stevenson in a lot of
77:03leagues, so maybe this is just my priors talking, but that would worry me if I was a Henderson backer, especially if
77:10Stevenson can have himself a nice game in this one.
77:13Obviously, his performance will dictate a lot of this going forward.
77:16I want to just quickly revisit the Romeo Dobbs thing, because he's a guy that I think ended up being a pretty good value.
77:23I don't know if he's somebody I'm rushing to get into my starting lineups this week, Ray, but certainly, again, the role distribution between a guy like A.J.
77:31Brown and a guy like Romeo Dobbs, I think Dobbs is a sneaky bet to get a lot of receptions in the
77:38short and intermediate area, and obviously that's going to be tough with Devin Witherspoon there.
77:42We'll see about Nicky Manwari's status, as you mentioned.
77:45This is a really tough Seahawks defense overall, but if we're talking about quick passes, get the ball out of Drake May's
77:52hands with some precision and with some speed, I think Dobbs could be the guy that is the beneficiary of that.
77:58So again, is he someone that I'm going to rank really highly this week?
78:02Probably not, but if he comes away with a big week one, I don't know that he would be one of those
78:09guys, Ray, that I'm instantly saying, like, ah, don't buy into that.
78:12That's nonsense, because I think Dobbs is a nice player, and they gave him some money as well.
78:18He is a nice player. He is the Jacoby Myers of Romeo Dobbs.
78:21They're, like, kind of one in the same, just good players that nobody really wants, and even if they got the usage, he's just a good player.
78:29He's a good football player. He's a good football player.
78:32It wouldn't shock me if he had a touchdown in this one.
78:36Not lead the team in receiving, not leading the team in yards.
78:40Look at that! Our guy Joel Smith, right? I didn't even read the tweet yet, but tied for ninth amongst wide receivers
78:46in red zone team, it would not shock me if he's one of those guys that all that volume and usage we
78:53talked about throughout the show, you walk out of Wednesday night, and Romeo Dobbs caught a touchdown and had a decent fantasy performance.
78:59He's a good player. Yeah, he's a good player.
79:02Somebody that I think went a little bit too late in drafts.
79:06Things are going to end up being a nice value, especially if this team is going to be as good as it
79:12was last season from an offensive standpoint, which it probably won't be.
79:16It probably will regress a little bit just because their efficiency metrics were crazy last year.
79:21But I think they could, in a weird way, regress a little bit efficiency-wise and still be a really good team.
79:27So yeah, very much looking forward to watching the kind of passing game distribution between these guys.
79:32Of course, I think Stevenson is a good start.
79:35Let's flip this over to the Seahawks side of things here.
79:38You mentioned the name Jadarian Price several times during the show as somebody that you've got your eye on in week one.
79:44I mean, Ray, I'm interested to hear where you might think he fits in from a week one ranking standpoint because, honestly,
79:51he's one of the few rookies that I think projects to a pretty clear role in week number one.
79:57Yeah, he's a must start for me. He's a must start.
80:00And I say all of that, and I don't want to be hypocritical, pot calling the kettle black.
80:05I'm still managing expectation. What I hope to see at the end of this day is not that he had 30 points.
80:12He's not going to be the RB1 on the week.
80:15It'd be great if that happens. But I want to see him command opportunity.
80:19I want him to get the volume. I want him to get the rush attempts.
80:23I want to see his involvement in the receiving game.
80:26If George Helani or Emmanuel Wilson on the field for some third downs, they fall into the end zone, like you take note of that.
80:34But I fully expect him to be the RB1.
80:36You don't draft the running back in round one and not give him a shot.
80:41Whether they succeed or fail, that remains to be seen.
80:44But my expectation is that he leads this backfield in opportunities here after tomorrow night.
80:48Yeah, he'll certainly be a starting running back in my rankings this week.
80:52Jaren Price in a nice spot here. Pass game-wise, we think we know what it looks like for the Seahawks.
80:58It's Jackson Smith and Jigba and everything else revolves around him, which is, by the way, what I think it's going to look like.
81:05Of course, JSN's going to have a tough matchup with Christian Gonzalez, who I mentioned earlier.
81:10Christian Gonzalez had a really nice performance against him in the Super Bowl.
81:14Christian Gonzalez newly paid. I think we'll see him track JSN around the field a good bit.
81:19Obviously, you're starting JSN. Don't worry about that. But, Ray, any instinct from you on what we might see from some of these ancillary Seahawks players?
81:27Will we see more Elijah Arroyo this season? Rashid Shaheed, are we going to see more of him?
81:32Cooper Cup, anything you've got your eye on here in week one from this team?
81:37Shaheed is what I have my eyes on. I do think AJ Barner, I think they like Barner.
81:42I think that's the starting tight end. And Arroyo, maybe a good couple of shots.
81:46But they've been talking about Shaheed having an increased role.
81:49And when you just look at the sheer volume that JSN had last year, I meant, it was him and nobody else.
81:56Like, he got it all. Would I be shocked if that came down to like 28% target share, which is still ridiculously high, 29%?
82:03No, I wouldn't because that would still put him as an upper echelon wide receiver.
82:07But if Darnold is going to throw for another 4,000 yards, the Brian Fleury is the OC.
82:13I think a little people are concerned about that.
82:15But this right here, if they can find another option next to Jackson Smith and Jigba to be the QJ of this
82:22offense, it might be a valuable role down the stretch.
82:25Not saying that you're going to start Shaheed tomorrow night.
82:28You're going to start him in week two. But this is one where we have to look at this usage, Matt, following week one.
82:35No question. Because, like, he's a good player, man.
82:38I think he was a little bit underutilized overall last season.
82:41Obviously, he had familiarity with the offensive coordinator, Clint Kubiak, but still just never quite got fully ramped up and everything.
82:47By all accounts, you mentioned he's had a good offseason.
82:50Torrey Horton is questionable going into this game. I mean, I don't know that you can really count on much from him right now at this point.
82:58And Brian Fleury was talking about this at a press conference today I was watching where he basically said, like, you know,
83:05last year everybody had success with 13 personnel, you know, but teams know how to defend it a little bit more this year.
83:11I thought that was interesting from him kind of throwing that out there because I do expect a lot of 12 personnel
83:18from this team, you know, like I think we will see a lot of Barner and Arroyo on the field together.
83:24But interesting just note to watch, like, how many guys they get out in the route, you know, because San Francisco, they
83:31would just get a ton of dudes, a lot of mismatches and everything there.
83:35So Price's past game role, Shahid's past game role are certainly two things, I think, to keep an eye on because if
83:42Shahid had himself a big performance in week one, I don't know that that would be that big of a fluke either because he's a good quality player.
83:50Any predictions you have on this game? My one prediction, Ray, is the more we talked about it, 44.5 point total.
83:56I think famous last words here. I think this is going to be a pretty low scoring season opener here between these two football teams.
84:04I'm with you. I would be taking the under.
84:06The only other thing that I just need to see it, Matt, is Sam Darnold, right?
84:11We talked about May. We talked about all these other offenses and options.
84:15Sam Darnold, I just have to see it again, Matt.
84:18I just got to see it again. I just have to see it.
84:22And at home, he should be good. It should be good for Darnold.
84:26But I just – I'm telling you, brother, I got to see it again.
84:30Fair enough. I feel pretty good about Sam Darnold in this system, which even if it is a change in coordinator, I
84:36still think it's within the same family tree. Obviously, Flory was in San Francisco.
84:40Darnold had that one year in San Francisco where he really feels like that's where he kind of reprogrammed his brain about
84:47how to be the type of quarterback that he is right now.
84:51I think that's been good for him. I still expect Darnold to have a good season.
84:55Pretty funny, though, that we're in the last 30 seconds of the show, basically, and you're like, oh, Harmon, you probably should mention the Super Bowl winning quarterback.
85:04How many other times has that happened in human history?
85:07Probably no times in human history. Okay, great show here with Ray Garvin.
85:10That does it for our week one data dump show.
85:13Remember, we're going to be back here every Tuesday live at 4 p.m.
85:17Eastern on the YouTube channel. And this show is only going to get better and better as we continue to get more
85:24data and more information from these teams. So definitely make sure you come back next week for that.
85:29Also, come back tomorrow because Nate Tice joins me for another banger of a show.
85:34It's our Dynasty Debates segment that we're going to be unveiling here on Wednesday.
85:38We're going to discuss rookies, second-year players, what to look out for in week one.
85:42Again, that's going to air 4 p.m. Eastern on this YouTube channel.
85:46So subscribe, like the video, leave us a nice comment.
85:49You know, come on. We could really enjoy that.
85:52Until then, we are out.
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