0:00Big show for you here today, Ray Garvin joins me to pick 12 breakout candidates for the 2026 fantasy football season Yeah,
0:08I think we're the first show to do this concept where we pick breakout players year 2-4 generally but we could see
0:15maybe some late career ascension, maybe some cheating honestly from Ray Garvin on one of these picks maybe two of these picks,
0:23I'll let you decide that but we talked through our breakout candidates on this show today plus we have a very special
0:30surprise and a massive announcement about a big draft coming your way one week from now at the end of the show
0:38that is really fun, you're going to want to stick around for that all that and more, come up on today's show
0:45let's get into it What's going on everyone, I'm Matt Harmon, welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast and it is a hell
0:53of a day to talk ball and joining me to do just that it is my guy, my man, looking good over
1:00there on the other side of this thing it is Ray Garvin, Ray, what's going on buddy, how you doing?
1:07Matt, I'm doing well, doing well, doing well we are inching closer, inching closer to the regular season there is fear and
1:14pandemonium in the social media streets every time a player goes down, prayer circles, candles lit across the board but we ain't,
1:22Matt, you know we don't do that on this show, Matt we don't fear monger on this show, so we're not going
1:29to be talking about fake injuries and high ankle sprains, there could be low ankle sprains, there could be fractured we ain't
1:37doing that today, we ain't doing that, Matt so I'm feeling good, excited to talk ball with you we got a dope
1:45show lined up for the people and some surprises a little later, I guess That is correct, we do have some surprises
1:52a little bit later I can't help it because you said it, now I just have to say it I warned people,
2:00I feel like two or three weeks ago time is the flattest of flat circles right now you say we're getting ever
2:07closer to week one it still feels like three miles away to me it feels very far off in the distance and
2:15yet I know it is approaching but I feel like I said this two or three weeks ago that I don't need
2:22an update every time a player limps off the football field if a guy's going to miss time the Gen D thing,
2:30that's different did that become a little bit of an overreaction?
2:33I'll let the people decide, I'll let the people judge if that was a little bit of an overreaction on Sunday night
2:41there when we didn't have any hardcore reporting and we're not going to get any hardcore reporting, I get that Kubiak barely
2:48acknowledged that Ashton Jeanty has an ankle when he was asked about this in media today ankles, never heard of an ankle what is an ankle?
2:57Do running backs need ankles? I have no idea, but anyways I said this like two or three weeks ago I feel
3:05like that we got to let some of these injury situations play out and honestly it's not for me it's for you
3:12people out there it'll be better for your mental health as a fantasy football player if you can just disengage a little
3:20bit and maybe turn those notifications off okay well, there's a difference, right Matt?
3:25between being injured and being hurt and that's people, every sport that's what's said, everybody's going to get hurt are you hurt or are you injured?
3:33are you hurt or are you injured? and I think, you know, we've talked about it the more information that we get
3:41it's immediate you know, the report as soon as they turn the music off and everyone took a knee and it's just
3:49like immediate overreaction and then you give it a little bit of time and it's like, oh well, it wasn't worst case
3:56scenario still not good but it's not as bad as I thought it was two, three hours ago, right?
4:03exactly, correct I will never forget, Ray when I used to do the show with Austin Eckler for Eckler's Edge and I
4:10remember it was one of the days he was coming on the show I was like, Austin, how you doing, buddy?
4:17like, what's going on? and this is off air he goes, oh man, like my neck hurts, my back hurts my shoulder
4:25hurts my this hurts, my that hurts and it's like then I was like, I guarantee you, Austin what's going to happen
4:32is Tuesday practice report Wednesday practice report Austin Eckler fully healthy like, fully participates it was like that guy is hurting alright?
4:40these are football players anybody that's ever played a sport knows these guys are hurting a little bit so, we'll see I'm
4:47not even saying the name Jamar Chase on the audio side of things they've shown the graphics on YouTube even though I
4:55said I didn't want to talk about this but, again if there's actual news and actual reports to talk about we will
5:02discuss injuries then in the meantime log off touch some grass maybe turn those notifications off alright?
5:08maybe turn them off for a little bit if it's causing you to tilt I clearly am doing very well from a
5:16mental standpoint as people can tell at the beginning of this show you wanna know why Ray?
5:21you wanna know why I'm doing so well? because we have a great show here ahead of us we've got 12 breakout
5:29candidates for 2026 that we are gonna discuss today what is a breakout candidate Ray?
5:34nobody knows it's it's it's it's a varying opinion we basically said it's guys that are between year two year four generally
5:42but if you've got a late career breakout ascension I think we can count that as well so we're gonna discuss that
5:49today but before we do yes it is time that I remind you once again people that's right you see it on
5:57the screen here Yahoo Fantasy Draft Weekend is coming to Dick's House of Sport in the Buffalo area man Yahoo Fantasy Draft
6:04Weekend presented by Verse it's gonna be absolutely electric okay if you're in the Buffalo area and you're not there at Dick's
6:12House of Sport in Amherst, New York I am going to be personally offended I am gonna my feelings will be hurt
6:19okay so you're gonna be there folks because it is a live podcast with me Josh Norris Justin Boone Saturday August 29th
6:273 to 7pm the live show 4 to 530pm Dick's House of Sport again let me say it again Dick's House of
6:34Sport for Yahoo Fantasy Draft Weekend presented by Versed that's right Amherst, New York if you're in the area bring your friends
6:42bring your enemies bring your relatives I don't know if you can bring animals okay but bring your friends bring yourself if
6:49you're getting ready for your draft there's no better place to be I will see you all there August 29th from 3
6:57to 7pm okay let's get into it here Ray Garvin we've got our breakout candidates to start and because I've yapped enough
7:04here at the top of the show I'm gonna let you go first who's your breakout candidate for 2026 alright let's start
7:12with a year or two year or two running back where his team a lot has changed play callers change old line
7:19has changed quarterback is still the same I love me some Omari on Hampton I love me some Hampton and I know
7:27his his ADP right now is still 19th so it's still high but there are some questions about him all the talk
7:34about the multiple use of running backs Keaton Mitchell they bring him in you've got Kamani Vidal back there obviously the injury
7:42to Tyler Biotish who is this one I can report on out for the season with the torn ACL but Omari on
7:49Hampton he's already produced like an RB1 win healthy and now you're talking about a full season plus Mike McDaniel's outside zone
7:57scheme it could unlock a true ceiling for Hampton 733 scrimmage yards five touchdowns on 152 156 touches last year in just
8:04nine games it's 15.1 PPR fantasy points top 13 Matt amongst running backs so basically his production matched his expected points so
8:12it wasn't TD luck it wasn't any of that stuff you're talking about a running back with a 91.4% catch rate 32
8:19catches on 35 targets 32 missed tackles force which was third amongst running backs in missed tackle rate according to PFF and
8:27then 3.4 yards after contact per attempt we bring in this outside zone scheme Alec Engel that fullback heavier 21 personnel Charlie
8:34Kolar David Njoku and the camp buzz Mike McDaniel's already said that Hampton has shown as much if not the most growth
8:42of anyone inside that Chargers offense and then Jim Harbaugh the head coach said the scheme fits him perfectly so a player
8:49that we're drafting high to be a really good running back I think Omarion Hampton has top five running back upside especially
8:57with what's going on with Jinty right now if he can command that 17 to 20 touch per game opportunity load with
9:04the receiving work so Omarion Hampton for me is one of the biggest breakout candidates at the running back position I think
9:12he's going to return the value and the cost that he's got right now as far as ADP yeah I was going
9:20to ask you that was going to be my first question he is definitely the breakout candidate we will discuss today that
9:27is going the highest in Yahoo drafts 19th overall you want Omarion you want Omarion Hampton you're going to have to pay
9:35for it this year Ray Garvin 19th overall he is between Derrick Henry at 17th overall just behind Chase Brown obviously Ashton
9:42Gentey's ADP is going to be a little bit variable but at the beginning of the week he was going off the
9:50board as the 15th overall player so he's not he's only running back 12 off the board you know but that's just
9:57running backs are going early here on Yahoo you feel convicted enough in the Omarion Hampton breakout to click him as the
10:0519th overall player I do I do feel I do feel convicted enough I know there are some pushback and some question
10:12marks but I mean I'm just at bare men this was a first round pick he's massive he can catch the ball
10:20he's athletic and it wasn't he was bad he just needed to stay on the field he wasn't healthy for the entirety
10:27of last year only nine games I just think that when you only have you know 500 and rushing yards and then
10:35the receiving work was really encouraging for Hampton I do think at cost I feel really good about clicking Hampton the ceiling
10:42case upside for him I don't know how many players behind him have the same type of ceiling if this offense clicked
10:50if they can stay together and I just don't believe that Kamani Vidal or Keaton Mitchell are going to truly pull enough
10:57work away from Hampton to like kind of tank his value in his production yeah he was really starting to come on
11:05right before he got hurt the first two weeks there's no question a little bit slow for Amarian Hampton but 25 touches
11:12129 yards from scrimmage against the Denver Broncos in week three that amounted to 21.9 fantasy points 25 fantasy points the next
11:20week 17 touches 165 yards for Amarian Hampton in that game seven targets five targets he comes back week in that contest
11:27we really did start to see him kind of on that upward trajectory right as he got hurt so I was going
11:35to say he's a little bit I mean sounds like you feel pretty good about the film evaluation he's a little bit
11:42of a tricky film evaluation just because first two weeks were a little rough and then he has three good weeks then
11:50he gets hurt so I think he looked good though I was a really big fan of him as a prospect because
11:57he's just massive and explosive and I think when you give him a lane which this system will and you're not asking
12:05him to read out gaps and anything like that he he hits that crease and man he can just go he can
12:12just be gone so I really like the player but you feel pretty good about where he's at you we're not just
12:20talking about a pure grinder here bell cow just tote the rock up the gap his work in the receiving game makes
12:27that ceiling case for him it's not going to be at all keep Mitchell will get some opportunity as well but if
12:35Hampton is just out there in that primary receiving down roll along with his work between the 20s I kind of want
12:42some Hampton yeah I like it a lot I think he's in a really good position here I'm going to stick with
12:50the second year back theme and talk with a guy that I'm not 100% sure if he's the lead back I was
12:57a prospect who came into the league fourth round pick very explosive I thought fit an outside zone run scheme really well
13:05I did not think he necessarily had the consistent vision and everything to be a man gap scheme runner which was interesting
13:12because Liam Cohen when he was with the Tampa Buccaneers they ran a ton of man gap stuff in that year with
13:20Bucky Irving but that is because the Bucs have a badass offensive line they had a great offensive line that year and
13:28you know sometimes we see this with these really smart coaches when they have the offensive line talent they'll lean into that
13:35gap scheme stuff because you can just maul folks and you can create the big plays and then typically when you're going
13:43to rely on more communication and more chemistry and cohesion and less raw tootin is a really good scheme fit in that
13:50regard I don't want to discount Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s role and I actually have Chris Rodriguez ranked ahead of ADP as well
13:58because when you get in the late rounds take the shot that he ends up being the lead back whatever but I
14:05think it is mostly a two man backfield here like LaQuinn Allen is a good player he will be involved but he
14:13is not going to be a guy that takes a lot of touches here he's a pass protection back and I think
14:20we've lost the plot a little bit with passing down backs in fantasy football right now teams love these designated long down
14:28and distance guys to get the odds that you know Chris Rodriguez is just the grinder type that they need but I
14:35also believe they do want those explosive plays on the ground and so far I know he was like in the 60s
14:43in Yahoo drafts where I feel pretty good about him relative to some of those other running backs that come off the
14:50board you know earlier so if I'm looking for a winning Matt of the process you know right after the draft I
14:58think his ADP was steamed up a little too high like he was going to be get every ounce of work in
15:05this backfield and it was going to be him when they were at the University of Kentucky but my projections for Tootin
15:13are even higher than we have here right now and that's with Chris Rodriguez commanding 135 rush attempts the explosiveness the big
15:20play ability and when you think about Jacksonville as a team Matt this isn't a team that's trying to figure it out
15:28and rebuild and hopefully they can be competitive no their job and their goal is to win the AFC South to push
15:35for a deep playoff run so at the beginning of the year there may be a little more Rodriguez on the field
15:43but we want but when push comes to shove and we get later to the season and they need an explosive they
15:50need a guy in all the reports out of Jags he looked great I've seen some reports the most dominant player on
15:58the field at times for Jacksonville he may have his year two growing pains as well but everybody likes everyone is excited
16:05about Jacksonville I think but because of the ambiguity in the passing game and the backfield basal tootin 63rd overall player off
16:13the board that's the highest drafted Jacksonville Jaguar in Yahoo leagues over the last fantasy on tomorrow's episode with Nate I'm actually
16:20kind of betting that he brings up Chris Rodriguez at some point we'll see if I'm right okay I'm gonna go ahead
16:28and put that bet on the board right now because he is good is that grinder back he's been a high success
16:35rate player helped move the chains the whole deal but I I could be tootin yeah to to I'm with you I'm
16:43with you and that's not where ADP has it for this one yeah wide receiver that I think you and I both
16:50really like you and I both really like some of opportunities right target share he's going to do that he already commanded
16:58that as a rookie but it's this slot thing is real and I don't think people understand how projections that I have
17:05are good the ceiling projections are great and although he did not play in the slot a lot as a rookie he
17:13produced .41 fantasy points per route from the slot which was 13th in the NFL if Carolina is really I've got him
17:20projected here I've been 10 toes down on this one from the very beginning he's one of the few wide receivers that
17:28have an elite ceiling outcome that's really not priced like that right now the volume is going to be there we need
17:35the efficiency to be there from Bryce but if you're not a big fan if they just move them around a little
17:43bit more Matt yeah I think the slot point I know we've talked about it a ton but it can't be overstated
17:51here and we've seen it in the preseason it's not just a they've been talking about it in five to 40 percent
17:58of the slot for both of those guys McMillan has two catches for 25 yards on two targets as well we saw
18:06one explosive play against the Jaguars in the most recent preseason game and Ray I he was targeted on 22 3 percent
18:13of those routes which was 30th among all the receivers who ran 200 more routes 118 receivers so you know obviously top
18:2130 is nothing to sneeze at but it's not that elite ceiling where you invested in Tedrow McMillan that will naturally happen
18:28in the slot this year if he's getting those looks because in terms of those 118 receivers with 200 or more routes
18:36his slot rate was 102nd just 15.2 percent so 40 percent of the preseason I think it might be lower than that
18:43Ray but even getting up to 25 percent from 15 is a big deal and the downfield work right that one play
18:51where he ran across it like that that's what you're looking back a little bit but we're really banking on the role
18:58change for a player that's already shown an ability to win and here's what I'll say to that he's a rookie he
19:06was a rookie we're talking in a day in an age where the thousand yard rookie wide receiver I he'll I don't
19:13think he will ever turn into a player that was worth all that they gave up for him right among 30 qualifying
19:21quarterbacks last year is 25th in EPA per play I'm not going to sit here and do like a bunch of Bryce
19:28young apologist stuff he was 22nd out canals is a good play caller but I think he felt his time was split
19:36between being the head coach being the play caller idzik can focus in wasn't higher this year and I would be shocked
19:43if Bryce young doesn't get to like 20th in success rate this year which I think 20th I we have seen some
19:51really good Bryce young games just we need that level of consistency so I'm with you and I'll say Jalen Coker being
19:58healthy now and on the field with McMillan if they can stay together that helps both of those guys I'm I'm higher
20:06than most on both Coker and McMillan I think they work in tandem with one another well obviously this is the Jalen
20:13for you here I'm telling you something you didn't know before but yeah no I mean this is but it is a
20:21it's it's the critical detail here that Coker the fact that he's able to play X receiver and we saw him not
20:28just like oh Matt Harmon thinks he can line up an X receiver and run round against press man like we saw
20:36him make big boy catches and plays from the X receiver position on go routes consistently down the stretch last year the
20:43fact that that's a real thing that's why they're able to move Ted around around like he is the key that unlocked
20:51this thing because their slot receiver early on last year was Hunter Renfro all respect in the world to Hunter Renfro but
20:58that's a guy who had I mean he took a year off in football he retired lost what Coker's player comparison is
21:06and my player comparison tool on reception perception is Chris Godwin and if you think about the years that like Chris Godwin
21:13was his best self that allowed Mike Evans to be a 20 sometimes 30 percent slot player like that that those that
21:21is the key here Coker is the key for McMillan having this breakout season why does your 43 or excuse me 43rd
21:28overall ADP in Yahoo Leagues I'm buying at that price Ray double down on Carolina Panthers which is when you know we've
21:36jumped the shark on the breakout player and it's not even Jalen Coker people know I like Coker and I'm ahead of
21:43consensus on Coker but Jonathan Brooks I do think is a breakout candidate now the ADP is obviously rising on Jonathan Brooks
21:51we were outside the top 100 for a long time on Brooks you know we're getting a little pricey but I think
21:59until he gets into the low 70s high 60s that's like maybe the danger zone for Brooks I still think in the
22:0680s we're content here because how many other ceiling bets do you see at the running back position there for Jonathan Brooks
22:14and I realize it's all theory for Brooks okay he is a guy that we have seen him touched the ball 12
22:21times so far in his NFL career but 82nd 85th overall the guys ahead of him you know Ramondre Stevenson Jalen Warren
22:29okay fair enough but after that's like we're getting into the Rico Dowdle the Tony Pollard the J.K.
22:35Dobbins his own teammate Chuba Hubbard 100th overall ADP I just think that that's a ceiling bet there that I'm willing to
22:42make because Brooks at his best which I don't know if we'll ever see that player again after two ACL tears but
22:50at his best was super explosive could be involved in the passing game I think we've seen some good decision making as
22:57a runner in the preseason not a ton there but yeah Brooks to me I think is Jonathan Brooks fits the bill
23:05I don't know how much of a hope or a wish it is Matt honestly he's healthy he looked explosive I didn't
23:12need to see him carry the ball 30 times to figure out he looks okay I'm at the one run where he
23:20had that I don't want to say there's any position in football that's easy but it's get ball run ball that is
23:27the running back position we've seen the likes of Jonas Gray and other running backs who people would be like 700 yards
23:35y'all every one of your favorite players we can't project them for 1500 yards it's just unrealistic to do that but if
23:42he's got a role Matt where we're talking about 200 opportunities inside of this backfield with the injury to Chuba Hubbard with
23:50his talent profile hell yeah I'm in on Brooks we're not talking dynasty and what he's going to be five years from
23:57now but the ACL mechanism the injury I'm no doctor here but I have rarely heard that it affects straight line speed
24:05and that burst and that explosiveness as long as he can cut and show those things I'm with you I don't know
24:12how much of hope and all of that I think as long as he's on the field man he's probably going to
24:20be pretty good now the offensive line we've got to the last couple of years in my overall offensive efficiency metrics where
24:27I put together a bunch of different metrics and everything they were 26 in the NFL last year if you're betting on
24:35as long as Chuba is healthy and he's still on the way back from the hamstring injury he had in training camp
24:42but there's just been enough whispers out of Carolina that they want the young guy to continue to roll through breakout candidates
24:50here and if you didn't like us hyping up a member of the Carolina Panthers offense oh boy you're gonna love the
24:58guy from the Miami Dolphins offense Ray Garvin your next breakout candidate is we are traveling down to the 305 baby we are traveling down to Miami.
25:07Talk about a late round quarterback that could produce some big time upside.
25:11And that's what we're talking about. Cost relative to production.
25:15Malik Willis. Ah, Ray, you're talking about Teddero McMillan.
25:18He's coming off the board at 40 and Hampton at 19.
25:21We got this guy, 127 ADP over on Yahoo.
25:24And here's the thing. I'm going to just, I don't need, we do not need Malik Willis to be an elite passer
25:32in order for him to pay off and be very, very valuable for us for fantasy football.
25:38Let me just put some context around why rushing is so important.
25:4240 rushing yards is the same fantasy value as 100 passing yards.
25:46Rushing TD worth six points versus four points for a passing touchdown.
25:50That means Malik Willis can truly survive on modest passing numbers if he can give you, you know, 650, 700 rushing yards.
25:58Bobby Slowick has already come out and said he is going to be a big part of our designed run game, not
26:05scrambles, but design runs for Malik Willis. Just going back to what he did at Liberty, the two years that he was
26:13at Liberty, he had a 900 plus yard rushing season and an almost 900 yard rushing season with over 13 touchdowns on the ground both of those years.
26:22This is an offense that they invested up front with Caden Proctor, the 12th pick overall out of Alabama.
26:29They moved him to guard. Aaron Brewer was an all pro last season.
26:33Bobby Slowick's outside zone scheme fits Willis' mobility along with Devon A.
26:37Chan. So I get all the reasons why the weapons in Miami are very bad, but we just talked about a concentrated room.
26:45If we just track, you know, like an NBA usage rate is a big thing.
26:50Who's handling the ball? Who's doing stuff with the rock?
26:54I mean, Malik Willis' usage rate this season is probably going to be sky high because if he's not dropping back, throwing
27:01the ball, running the ball, it's Devon A. Chan.
27:04So in a world in which we're not talking about him becoming an all pro, I'm looking at this offensive line.
27:11Jonas Evania definitely needs to take a step forward, but there aren't a lot of weapons around.
27:17Like he's going to have to make stuff happen with his legs.
27:21They're already talking about more design runs for Willis.
27:24I, I, I, I'm just, I guess we've, we've spent so much time dogging out the receiving core in the room.
27:32And the only question I pose to people is Matt at 127 ADP.
27:36What if he's all right? What if Malik Willis is like, what if he is good?
27:41Because if we go back to last year, nobody thought Sam Darnold would be a 4,000 yard passer.
27:48People did not buy Daniel Jones at all for anything.
27:51And the list goes on and on and on.
27:54So my, my, my, my only thing is what if he is, he's got the type of skillset that if he is
28:02okay, he's probably going to return value as what QB 20 something off of the board.
28:07That's what I got. I'm not pumping up Miami.
28:10I'm not doing the stuff I did last year with Tyra.
28:14I'm not pumping them up, but I think his skillset in the proxy of a game that we play are a lot
28:21worse, but you can make it a lot higher cost than Malik Willis at 23 QB 23.
28:27Yeah. Here's the deal, man. Um, regardless of your belief level in the Malik Willis experience, it goes off the board QB 23.
28:35These are some of the players that go ahead of Malik Willis, Aaron Rogers.
28:40Come on. What year is this? Fernando Mendoza, not starting Bryce Young, the aforementioned Bryce Young, who I'm like, maybe he can
28:47be the 20th best quarterback in the league. Uh, we've got Sam Darnold.
28:52Okay. Super winner. Yeah. Can't take it away from him, but not really a fantasy quarterback.
28:57So cam Ward, uh, not in this universe. Yeah.
29:00Not in this universe. Am I taking cam? So those are the ADPs on Yahoo.
29:05I mean, my God, Baker Mayfield and Jordan love go later.
29:09I mean, come on, we got to like basically reverse this order here.
29:14Yahoo drafters. Let's get that figured out from that quarterback list that I just read off there.
29:19Yahoo ADP really good in a lot of positions, really good in a lot of positions.
29:25It's tough to draft on Yahoo right now. Quarterbacks though.
29:28We got to fix some of these late round quarterbacks.
29:32Okay. We got to, we got to fix this, this order here.
29:36This is pretty rough. Okay. Malik Willis though. I can tell it is August 25th one because of just the fried nature
29:43of my brain to I'm starting to look at that receiver room.
29:48I can't don't, don't be showing this as I'm about to, it's about to say what I'm about to say.
29:54We're sure that Omar Kelly tweet, the dolphins practices over the dolphins offense is a disaster.
30:00They were so bad. Malik Willis got the team together for a talk midway.
30:05I was just producers. He said it didn't help.
30:08Who put this up? You always want your Bobby Sloan says you always want your quarterback to be a leader when you're
30:15going through a moment of adversity today. Wasn't the best practice.
30:19Okay. That does not, that does not gear up what I'm about to say very well, but I can tell it's August
30:2625th because if we could pull that depth chart up, I'm starting to squint at this thing, which means we definitely need the real games to start.
30:36I'm starting to squint at this thing saying, you know what?
30:39Let's go left to right on this offensive line.
30:43Patrick Paul was awesome last year. One of the breakout offensive tackles in the NFL, Caden Proctor rookie, but promising left guard.
30:50I like him playing guard better than tackle Aaron Brewer, as you mentioned, all pro awesome.
30:55Jonas Sabanaya started to come on at the end of last year, playing at right guard.
31:01See Austin, Austin Jackson. Okay. I got nothing to say about Austin Jackson.
31:05This wide receiver room. We're going to have to do something about this two, two out.
31:11Well thing pretty soon because I think only two, two out was going to be playing too much because Chris Bell, not
31:18even in a no contact Jersey anymore. That makes me interested in this offense.
31:23Caleb Douglas has looked pretty promising in the preseason.
31:26See, this is where it starts. It starts to fray a little bit.
31:31Malik Washington. I liked Malik Washington as a pro as a prospect.
31:35So, you know, we got kind of like a nice movement player, get him on the run in Chris Bell.
31:42We've got an X and Caleb Douglas. We've got a slot receiver and Malik Washington.
31:47Okay. But it really comes back to Devon H and Malik Willis next to each other behind that offensive line.
31:54Ray, I know it's August 25th because despite the Omar Kelly tweets we just read, I'm like, I could see this being not embarrassing.
32:02You know, is that the bar? That's the bar.
32:05That's probably the bar. That's probably the bar. I just, you know, when, when we were trying to play this game and
32:12find like how that breakout wouldn't impact you, just say you, you were like, you know what?
32:18I'm not going to spend high draft capital on Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson.
32:23And I'm going to build a super dope team.
32:26And I just need Willis to be, and here's the thing.
32:30He's unimpeded, but there is no Quinn Ewers. Nobody's going to take his role.
32:35We know he's going to run. Yes. The receivers are rough, but you know what?
32:40Like there are some Fernando Mendoza's receiver room outside of Bowers is pretty rough too.
32:45That's why I focus on the usage rate. It's going to be him and Devon H and those two players are going
32:52to have the ball in their hands, doing something with it more than anybody else in Miami as far as generating yards
33:00and what he could pay off relative to costs.
33:03Like if that hits and you built around that, you're probably going to win your league.
33:08You're probably going to be in a position that I'll just say push for a deep playoff run based on the fact
33:16that you're drafting him almost outside the top 24 quarterbacks.
33:19Yeah, because he's free, man. I mean, you can build a powerhouse team.
33:24I love the way you said that. And yeah, ultimately the receiver stuff, it really, it matters, but it doesn't matter.
33:31What matters here is this team is going to be getting its butt whooped all season long.
33:37We know that because as much as I can sit there and we can poke holes on the offense, you can poke
33:44some big holes on the defense, particularly in the secondary.
33:48And I see a lot of like fourth quarter Malik Willis is scrambling, you know, and just you went in and it's
33:55like, ah man, Malik Willis only has 12 points in the fourth quarter.
34:00And then he comes away with 20 because he added, you mentioned 40 yards.
34:04Well, okay. That's like a hundred passing yards. You're getting a lot from Malik Willis.
34:10I think that's going to happen honestly a lot this season.
34:13And you guys, you people out there were drafting Justin Fields as a top seven quarterback in fantasy last year.
34:20You can take Malik Willis off the board at QB 23.
34:24I mean, come on, what are we doing here?
34:27Okay. I will go to the tight end position here and I'm going to talk about Terrence Ferguson as a breakout candidate.
34:34Terrence Ferguson, Los Angeles Rams tight end watching Terrence Ferguson last year.
34:39You know, there were some, let's call it up and down moments on the Terrence Ferguson situation.
34:44He goes off the board 127th overall, 131st overall the last seven days.
34:49I've got him ranked a little bit ahead of that, honestly, from a, from a tight end positional perspective.
34:55Now my overall rankings is a little bit lower because I'm just don't really rank the backup tight ends all that high.
35:03But if you're talking about like late round dart throw tight ends to me, I think that this makes so much sense
35:10for him to be the breakout candidate for a lot of different reasons here.
35:15Number one, Ray, I was talking about this with Nate Tice on the football 301 NFC West preview that we did today.
35:23Every team this year is going to be like, why can't we push the magic 13 personnel button and just create awesome offense?
35:30Why isn't this working? It worked for Sean McVay.
35:34And one of the reasons that it worked for Sean McVay is because of this guy, Terrence Ferguson.
35:40Not that he was making a bunch of plays, what he called like 11 passes last year, but because he's a vertical
35:47threat at the tight end position, not everybody else.
35:50Like, wait, we just put our three biggest, slowest pass catchers on the field.
35:55Why didn't this result in efficient offense? And the reason it worked for the Rams is because this guy is so fast
36:03and so explosive as one of these depth tight ends.
36:06He can actually be a clear out player. I realize I'm not selling a fantasy point yet, but here's where the fantasy sell comes in.
36:15Number one, he's very important to the team. Number two, a great piece from Nate Atkins in the athletic, where he had
36:22a quote from Terrence Ferguson, where he said, quote, coming in last year, I never expected to play the positions I'm playing.
36:30Ferguson said that he's being able to play the F, the Z, the Y and X, all of them together.
36:36It's definitely been a big jump. They asked me to do a lot of things down the field, but then also reliable on the line of scrimmage.
36:46It's about finding that happy medium. This guy's going to be their third receiver, I think on the Rams offense.
36:52And he spent the off season trimming body fat to increase the wiggle out of his breaks.
36:58They already kind of used him as that split out player last year.
37:03I just feel like he normally a tight end, this athletic Ray in an offense that was number one in the NFL
37:10last year, people would be a little bit more excited about Terrence Ferguson as a breakout player.
37:16That good shot here from Jeff Bell, who has the Terrence Ferguson quote.
37:20Yeah, I feel like people would be more excited about this guy.
37:25And I think he's a really good breakout candidate.
37:28This is one where this pass catching room is one of the most fascinating ones because you've got two big dogs at receiver.
37:35And then after that, Matt, I'm looking at my projections.
37:39Like I'm not projecting Xavier Smith to do much.
37:42Canata Mumfield. I'm not expecting it pivots right to the tight end room.
37:46And then we think about Colby Parkinson. We talked about him all the time on the data dump, right?
37:53It wasn't the fact that Parkinson was this massive target earner.
37:57He had eight touchdowns last year in 400 and something yards.
38:00So you think that he is the locked and loaded, that no one's going to unseat Colby Parkinson as the number one tight end.
38:09And I'm kind of like, uh, maybe because Terrence Ferguson, I believe is a better player.
38:14I do think that a tight end, whether that's Colby Parkinson to start or Terrence Ferguson, uh, shortly after the season, that's
38:22the third pass catcher in this room. That is, that is, that should be the third.
38:27It's not, they don't even target the running back at a high clip.
38:31So this is one where I've got Parkinson projected as the lead tight end to start, but can absolutely see this player
38:39turning into the focal point at that position inside of what we all recognize is one of the best offenses in the NFL.
38:47So now like between Willis and like, these are true breakouts.
38:51Again, you take a bet, you miss out on McBride, you miss out on Bowers.
38:56I'm not saying you want to go into the season with Ferguson as your only tight end, but maybe you wait a little bit.
39:04Then you take one in the mid round and then you throw a dart at Terrence Ferguson a little bit later.
39:11I'm with you. You're betting on a good offense.
39:14You're betting on a quarterback is probably throwing for another 4,000 yards on a team that does not have a wide receiver three.
39:22I'm with you on Terrence Ferguson. All right. Well, you said these are like real deal, late round breakouts, you know, the
39:30whole deal, your next player, Ray, I'm, I'm squinting at this one a little bit.
39:35Is this, is this a breakout for this particular player?
39:38Have we, have we not already seen you actually, let me help.
39:42I'm a good teammate. I'm gonna help you out on this one.
39:46This is not a breakout for Zay Flowers, but it is a breakthrough season coming in here for Zay Flowers.
39:53So tell the people why we're going to see it this year.
39:57Well, just think about how good Zay was last year.
40:01Zay was phenomenal last year, phenomenal player over 1200 yards, all this stuff that he did.
40:06He's never, not one time in his career, topped 118 targets.
40:10You kind of look at what he's done and you're like, man, what if Zay Flowers could get fed?
40:16Now you get new OC Declan Doyle coming in from offenses that successfully featured number one wide receivers.
40:23Baltimore freed up roughly 75 targets with Isaiah likely and DeAndre Hopkins gone.
40:27There are some alleged issues going on with Rashad Bateman.
40:30And I know we're excited about Jacoby Lane and Elijah Surratt, but when I'm thinking about, okay, we're already drafting Zay Flowers, what ADP 34 is there.
40:40I mean, we've got to project for 126 targets, 84 and right, right around 1200 and seven touchdowns.
40:46This is one of the receivers that most people are probably drafting as a wide receiver too for them.
40:52There, there's a real chance that you start off with a running back.
40:57You get, say you get yourself a dope wide receiver in round two.
41:01You might have another wide receiver one with more upside in Zay Flowers, given the fact that you look around this wide
41:09receiver room, Matt, the reports about Mark Andrews, I want to put Andrews as kind of like a bounce back player, but
41:16everything is like, Hey, uh, he's looking a little rough out here.
41:20And we know what happened with Andrews last year, Lamar Jackson in NFL history, top five, all time touchdown rate from Lamar Jackson.
41:28Lamar is never going to throw the ball 550 times.
41:32That's not going to happen. But if he's going to continue to be an efficient monster down at the red zone, and
41:39for whatever reason, Matt, you would think with Derrick Henry and Lamar, they'd get inside the five and just run the ball every time.
41:47Just Henry Lamar. I thought about Lamar's in the red zone and he's throwing the ball.
41:53So when I, when I, when I put Zay on this list, it's because I like him.
41:58I know more people like him, but I do think that there is potential for him to even out kick where we're
42:06drafting him now, based on the room, based on the offense, the offense change.
42:11I think it is a breakthrough for Zay flowers this year.
42:15Uh, this is one where we share a brain here, Ray Garvin, because I am writing a piece.
42:21It was probably supposed to be done earlier this afternoon.
42:24Uh, it's not done. It might be up tomorrow.
42:27It's about the guys who are, who check all the boxes.
42:31I look for in the wide receiver one overall for an incoming season.
42:35And look, I'm not saying that Zay flowers is going to be the wide receiver one overall, but I look for three
42:43boxes that you need three pillars that every wide receiver one overall has.
42:47When you look back over the last, you know, however many seasons they need to have access to a dominant target share within their offense.
42:56We can go ahead and check that box for Zay flowers who last year was fifth with a 28 point, excuse me,
43:03a 29% target share for Zay flowers last year behind only JSN.
43:07I'm on Ross St. Brown, Jamar chase and Justin Jefferson.
43:11He was fifth at the wide receiver position. I look at the guys across the depth chart right now.
43:17You mentioned like, we'll see about Bateman, uh, you know, Jacoby lane, not really the type of guy that he's going to
43:25be like a big playmaker, but not, not a high target player based on his skills that we've seen so far.
43:32I mean, this is going to be the Zay flower show.
43:36I maybe not 29%, but certainly North of 25%, which would easily put him in the top 10, uh, target shares across the NFL.
43:44So we can check that box efficient offense quarterback.
43:47You mentioned it Lamar healthier this year. I think it will be better.
43:52And then the last one is verifiably great at football.
43:55And I think Zay flowers is great at football as a flowers has been one of the best zone beaters in reception
44:02perception, each of the last three seasons. And then last year he took a big step forward in success rate versus press
44:10coverage rookie year, 63%, 71% in 2024, and then 75% in 2025.
44:14And honestly, Ray, that follows the path that like I'm on Ross St.
44:19Brown took in terms of beating press coverage. And that is the reason that I'm on Ross St.
44:25Brown owned a 41.5% share of his team red zone targets last year, because he's gotten so good at press coverage.
44:32So if he can take that last step forward, Zay flowers, that's how he accesses that top five, if not probably, probably
44:39not, but within the range of outcomes, the best receiver in fantasy this year, it's probably not going to happen because the
44:47overall volume, but I think he has the things that you look for, for a wide receiver one season.
44:53I, I know people don't like to hear it, but I do think that there is, there's some top five, top eight upside with Zay flowers.
45:02I'm just looking at his usage range of outcome median range according to the Trinity is right at 14.6 points per game,
45:10which was higher than he scored last year. That's his median with his high end range, 20.4 points per game.
45:17That's top 10 percentile outcome amongst 67 players that sort of had the same type of usage profile.
45:23That's 2022 digs, 19.8, 2022 chase, 20 and a half in 2023, Armin Ross St.
45:28Brown, 20.7. So that's the, at the highest end.
45:31And I'm looking at his success by route, like, okay, red on the post route.
45:36Don't run a post in Zay. Everything else is Christmas tree green.
45:40I'm loving what I'm seeing right here. When you layer that on top of the usage, reception, perception, Trinity, it's great.
45:47We just want to throw certain names in there, but the efficiency, the usage and, and Matt, I think the competition is
45:55less this year than it was last year. No likely, no Hopkins on the field.
46:00Well, it might be close to that 28, 29%.
46:03And if it is, if it is, he's going to outkick his ADP at 34 for sure.
46:09Yeah. I really liked the Declan Doyle hire overall, especially like I mentioned that St.
46:14Brown note about the red zone usage, obviously Declan Doyle, where was he last year?
46:19Ben Johnson, that coaching staff in Chicago, they know how to really weaponize these type of movement based players thought obviously a
46:27lot with Luther burden there in Chicago. I think we're going to see a ton of stuff with Zay flowers a year
46:34this year that are going to get people excited.
46:37So we're going to take a quick break. We come back, we're rolling through more breakout candidates.
46:43We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
46:47And for my next breakout candidate, I wanted to get to a quarterback here.
46:52I think one of my favorite late round quarterbacks is without a doubt Malik Willis, who we talked about earlier, Ray Garvin,
46:59but honestly, I think you could put together a pretty good late round quarterback tandem of Malik Willis and Tyler Shuck, my
47:07next breakout candidate, 132nd overall ADP for Tyler Shuck.
47:10I really think this offense for New Orleans could be pretty good this year.
47:14You know, look, when they had Jordan Tyson in the mix, that obviously had me a little bit more excited.
47:21Okay. I, yeah, definitely. When Jordan Tyson was going to be playing all season, the way that he fit in the offense,
47:29that of course would have been a little bit more desirable.
47:33Nevertheless, Ray, I liked personally, you tell me if you disagree.
47:36I liked what I saw out of Tyler Shuck last year.
47:40I do not disagree. I don't disagree at all.
47:43I didn't have high expectations, but he got in and like, he just, he looked like a pro quarterback and yes, he is a little bit older.
47:52He's been around, but I don't really care. We're talking about production this year.
47:57I love Kellen Moore and what he's doing as a play caller.
48:01I think they hit a home run in the same draft.
48:05They took Shuck with Kelvin Banks, the offensive tackle out of Texas.
48:09And I expect that to get better. You bring in a, a better running back at this stage of his career and Travis A.
48:17Chan versus what Alvin Kamara was last year. You still have Olave.
48:21I mean, one of the more underrated tight ends in the NFL that nobody wants that I haven't seen any puff pieces
48:29on Juwan Johnson floating around anywhere, but he's a very good tight end.
48:33And, and when you're talking about Jordan Tyson being injured, what I don't think is going to happen is they're going to
48:41treat Devon Vele or Bub Means or Barry and Brown as Jordan Tyson.
48:45We talked about that usage rate more. That's going to fall on Shuck.
48:50I think there's some opportunity for him to use his legs a little bit more.
48:55He's very competent as a rusher. I've got a projected for four rushing touchdowns.
49:00I think we've got a very solid rushing line for him here on Yahoo and what, 132.
49:05So he's being drafted after Will. If you really just wanted to play the margins and say, you know what, I'm going full late round QB.
49:14I'm not even thinking about the top guys. Give me Shuck.
49:18And then if you're at the back of that, give me Shuck and Willis.
49:23I'll just double up. I'll take Shuck. I'll take a Willis.
49:27I wouldn't hate it. Like the rest of your team is probably loaded, but this is, I like the offensive front.
49:34You still have Olave. So I don't know what else to say besides that.
49:39I feel you, man. I like Shuck. Yeah. I like him too.
49:43Obviously brought him up on the show from week 13 on.
49:46So, you know, a few starts under his belt at that point post by he was QB 13 in adjusted net yards
49:54per attempt just behind Caleb Williams and Joe Burrow, just ahead of Josh Allen and Aaron Rogers.
50:00Like we saw some good stuff from Tyler Shuck.
50:03I don't know that he's going to be a superstar player in the NFL, but I do like the ability to distribute
50:10the football from week 10 on Chris Olave averaged 86 yards per game with Tyler Shuck under center.
50:17I mean, he was, he was excellent. Honestly, I really think that Shuck is the type of quarterback to execute this offense, which is spread out.
50:25They use a lot of motion. And you mentioned the rushing ability.
50:30Yeah. I mean, we saw again from week 13 on, he had 98 yards as a scrambler, which was 11th most in
50:37the NFL ahead of Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams, Lamar Jackson.
50:40Like he's got a little bit of something to him as a runner.
50:45I think year two in this offensive system behind a good offensive line with Chris Olave established, we get anything out of Tyson.
50:53Travis Achan is a good running back. You know, I think this offense can take a step forward and Shuck is a big reason why Matt.
51:02And I just want to say this. I think at some point within fantasy football, we took like the Konami code quarterback
51:09way too far, but I'm looking at his production last year, his second most productive fantasy output game came against Tampa Bay,
51:17a game in which he only completed 13 passes for 144 yards, zero passing touchdowns, but he had seven carries 55 yards,
51:24two touchdowns and got 22.3 points in that matchup.
51:27That's with him having a 330 yard, two touchdown passing game like this.
51:32When you have a quarterback that can help you erase the margins with his legs, it's such a valuable thing.
51:39And we're not hanging our fantasy production hat on his legs, but the fact that he's got that within his arsenal, it
51:46just makes up for so many things that could go wrong on a week to week situation.
51:52If Stafford those were 144 and zero touchdowns, I can assure you, he ain't running for anything.
51:58You're not getting anything out of staff in production.
52:01So I'm with you with shock. Yeah. Ultimately he was QB nine.
52:05Once he stopped, once he got started in week 10, he was QB nine in fantasy.
52:10So I think there's a pretty decent ceiling here on Tyler Shuck.
52:14All right, Ray, your next breakout candidate. I'm not, I'm not going to say I'm going to call you out again, but
52:22Tyler Warren, you're calling me out again. Okay. Did Tyler Warren not break out like last year?
52:28I mean, what, what, what, what do we got from a stats perspective for, for, for Tyler Warren last year?
52:35I kind of feel like last season as a rookie, you know, already counts as a breakout for the young man, Tyler Warren.
52:42I mean, we, we got a really good fantasy season out of him.
52:47He had 76 catches last year, 817 yards, 817 yards.
52:50I feel like that kind of counts as a, as a breakout, but you, you sell me on this one.
52:57You know, that meme that says more, more, I want more from Tyler Warren.
53:02And I think there's more left, right? Because he started out great.
53:06He started out his first 10 games, five catches a game, 61 yards through the first 10 games.
53:12And that final seven in the, what have you done for me lately?
53:17World of fantasy football, 3.7 receptions a game, 28 receiving yards over the final seven games.
53:22It, I mean, it fell off the rails when once Daniel Jones got hurt, it just went completely off the rails.
53:29No Michael Pittman Jr. I don't care what they're saying about Daniel Jones right now.
53:34Like I, I don't expect him to run nearly as much as he did last year.
53:40Josh Downs, you and I both love this player.
53:43I think we look up at the end of the year and here's where it is.
53:48He's, he's already valued as, as tight end three, but it's relative to where he's being drafted ADP 47.
53:55So Bowers and McBride coming off the board. The real question is, is that cost worth investing in Tyler Warren or saying, you know what?
54:03I'd rather take Tedderola McMillan. I'd rather take somebody else or hell no.
54:08I want this guy because I believe he can be a thousand plus yard tight end inside this offense.
54:14And that's where I'm putting my 10 toes down at.
54:18I think he has the potential inside of this offense to be absolutely dominant, to pay off that ADP of why of,
54:25of tight end a player 47 overall. And that's where I'm at.
54:29It's not that he had, he didn't have a good rookie year.
54:33It's that I think he can be even better from that rookie year where a lot of people are kind of, I
54:41don't know, can he, I'd rather just wait. I'll take Fannin.
54:45I'll take Kyle Pitts. I'll take somebody else. And I'm telling people, no, you take Tyler Warren.
54:50I will put it out there right now. He will lead the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns in the hidden value in Tyler Warren.
54:59The hidden value inside of this is he only, only took 51.8% of his snaps from a traditional tight end alignment, 384
55:07receiver snaps, 64 backfield snaps, plus working that wildcat towards the goal line.
55:11Like that. There's so much more here that Tyler Warren can do where I feel very comfortable taking them at a, at
55:19a, at a pretty steep ADP cost of 47 right now.
55:23Well, I've got a 46 overall, so I guess I'm on board with basically everything you're selling here from a Tyler Warren standpoint.
55:30Yeah. I think he's really well set up this year to be super productive.
55:35Um, you know, he was one of Boone's seven league winners that we talked about on the show yesterday.
55:42Yeah. He, he could just be that guy that goes from the mid round tight end to he, I mean, I think
55:49he definitely has like top two tight end scoring in his range of outcomes.
55:54It probably involves a lot of different factors that, you know, something didn't go right here somewhere along the way, but like
56:02Alec Pierce, they're saying he's, he's probably going to practice next week, which they told us two weeks ago that he was
56:09going to practice in the coming weeks. We don't know about that situation.
56:13Keenan Allen, I think will be a useful player for this team.
56:18Um, we can actually just dovetail this because my next breakout candidate is Josh Downs, uh, who still has a hundredth overall ADP.
56:25I'm ahead of ADP on that. Even after the Keenan Allen signing, I'm curious actually, if you've changed any of your Josh
56:33Downs outlook after the Keenan Allen signing, but, and I think, I think you have to, you got to bring him down
56:40a little bit, but I'm not going to dock him too much on the Keenan Allen signing.
56:46Cause honestly, Ray going back and charting Keenan Allen for reception perception, I came away thinking that people who were like, Oh,
56:54Keenan Allen mogged Lad McConkie last year. I think that sounds even dumber in hindsight.
56:59And the reason I think that is like Keenan Allen didn't mog Lad McConkie, the chargers offensive lineman logged, mogged Lad McConkie.
57:06I'm getting my words mixed up here. Cause I probably shouldn't be saying mog this much because I'm a 35 year old grownup.
57:14Uh, anyways, nevertheless, the reason that Lad McConkie, you know, did lost that production to Keenan Allen wasn't cause like Lad McConkie
57:22did anything wrong is that Keenan Allen was used so much in 11 personnel.
57:27He took 12 snaps out of 12, 13, 21 and 22 personnel last year, 12 snaps, Keenan Allen.
57:33Wow. Darius Davis, Keandre Lambert Smith played more in those heavy personnel packages than Keenan Allen did last year because Keenan Allen
57:40was kind of that designated hitter in spread concepts.
57:43That's what I think he's going to be with the Colts this year.
57:48And again, I'm yada, yada, yada, and getting to the point here that like Lad McConkie was running next Keenan Allen as
57:55the like bigger downfield breaking routes where Keenan Allen was that third down layup receiver here when he was on the football
58:03field, which I think is what he's going to do for the Colts.
58:07And I think he's gonna be good at it, but the Colts offensive line is significantly better than what the Chargers were rolling out last year.
58:16And I think Josh Downs is essentially going to be in that like Lad McConkie role where he's running those more downfield breaking routes.
58:24And if he does that, I think he can do that.
58:28He definitely will have a breakout season this year, but I also don't think that has to come at the expense of a guy like Tyler Warren.
58:37So I like us having both these two players because I think they're going to be the leading receivers for the Colts this year.
58:45Yeah, I think both of them can work very well together.
58:49And yes, Keenan Allen pulled a little bit away from Josh Downs.
58:53And I mean, he pulled a little bit away from all the wide receivers, but not enough to move him over Josh Downs for me.
59:02I don't think this is a competition between those two.
59:05I really don't think it's a competition with targets for from Keenan, from Tyler Warren.
59:10I still have Josh Downs projected to lead this wide receiver room.
59:15Even over right now, Alec Pearson, what's going on with him and the injury?
59:19Willie will not practice play all of that. Yes, it takes the ceiling down a little bit, but I'm not all Josh Downs is done.
59:28He can't do anything again. We had this conversation.
59:31I still think that there's a world where in those heavier personnel groups, what if they just say, you know what, Josh,
59:38you're the best guy we have out here right now until Alec is healthy and then they let him go get it.
59:46They let him try in some of those situations.
59:49I think he's still set up to be really good this year.
59:53Yeah. I mean, I think he'll be the second receiver when they are in two receiver sets this year.
60:00And because Tyler Warren is so versatile, as you mentioned, like he can, he was used as a flex option last year
60:07that can allow you to sort of hide Josh Downs and essentially make him a slot receiver, even if there's just two receivers on the football field.
60:16So yeah, Downs definitely the, just the question with him is health.
60:20Like, can he handle the full, and I know he's been a little banged up in camp the whole deal, but like,
60:28can he handle the full snap workload? I mean, I don't know.
60:32I have no idea, but I know from a talent perspective, from a skillset perspective, I definitely see it there with him.
60:40And of course, yeah, Tyler Warren is awesome. So we would like those two break.
60:45Okay. How are you feeling about the Daniel Jones thing?
60:48Because it's funny, like Nate brought up this point on football 301 and he's consistently sent me like some clips from Colts
60:56camp where, you know, Jones is kind of throwing in an interesting way off that leg and whatever, but everybody who's at
61:03Colts camp is like, Oh my God, he looks great.
61:07You know, he's practicing with no restrictions, which is like, we know that practicing with no restrictions doesn't mean the guy is totally himself.
61:15What is your level of confidence right now on Daniel Jones who were hanging to breakout candidates on here?
61:21Probably if I had to say maybe like 70%, you know, I, I don't think that they're going to ask him to
61:29play with outside of, outside of his bounds, right?
61:32Like do what you need to do, execute the offense.
61:35I haven't gone through an Achilles tear myself. It feels, everything feels good until you're out there and getting hit and pulled down.
61:43And that's, that's what we have a real life testament here on the Achilles.
61:48Yeah. You got gente getting prayed for over an ankle sprint.
61:52I walked out of a stadium with a torn Achilles, Matt Harmon, no help.
61:56Nope. No cart came to get me. I had to walk out of there two miles to the car with a shredding Achilles.
62:04These guys walk whining and crying over a sprained ankle.
62:08But to, to the point about Daniel Jones, get the ball to downs, get the ball to Tyler Warren and run with Jonathan Taylor.
62:16And I think they try to protect them a little bit.
62:20Like it's all fun and games until you start getting hit and dragged down.
62:24Right. Oh man, Ray Garvin out here. Like these kids, not like, not like back in my day.
62:31I mean, unbelievable stuff here. Wasn't that at the expo that you tore that Achilles?
62:36Dude, at the first Matt two yard out route, right?
62:39I try to get some yak explode upfield. Boom.
62:42It's gone. Just simple play, simple play at the expo.
62:46Yes. I haven't been back since. Yeah, I know.
62:49Cause that, that was the year before I made my first appearance there.
62:53So it's either you're avoiding the site of where you tore your Achilles or you're avoiding me one of the two.
63:00And I guess we'll let the people decide which one is the real situation here.
63:05I got to tell you what, Ray. Okay. We'll get to your next breakout, your final breakout candidate, six and final one here.
63:13Um, and I have been saying on the show, I have been looking far and wide.
63:19I have been scanning the timeline, looking all around here.
63:22And I have been able to find zero fantasy analysts who are willing to hype up and be, be the RJ Harvey guy.
63:30I made the correction. I made the correction that, uh, my buddy, Andrew KY bourbon guy subscriber to reception perception.
63:37I made the, made the, made the correction. He actually reminded me, I am an RJ Harvey guy.
63:43So, um, as of this morning, my count out of the trillions of fantasy analysts out there was one, I could find one RJ Harvey guy, Ray Garvin.
63:53You're about to make it too. We've got two RJ Harvey guys.
63:57I found him. I found the RJ Harvey guy.
64:00It's you. Tell us why. Yeah. I'm excited about Harvey this year.
64:04I think the expectation for Harvey last year with everything that happened with Denver, them trading up handpicking Sean Payton's guy.
64:11And even at the time, not a strong belief that JK Dobbins was going to run and command as much of the Russian shares he did.
64:20It really kind of soured folks as to, you know, their, their feelings and their thoughts and their opinions about this rookie
64:27running back out of UCF, but he did score 12 touchdowns.
64:31And he did that without owning the backfield. He did not own the backfield.
64:36You 540 yards, 47 catches, 356 yards as a rookie, seven on the ground, five through the air, almost 900 scrimmage yards on less than 195 total touches.
64:46And he only started the game, started seven games last season, 1.42 yards per route run, which was eighth amongst running backs.
64:53First in first downs per route run, sixth in targets per route run, 90th percentile target share.
64:59And I'll give a shout out to Ben Gretsch, who I've been watching some of his work and him talking about RB
65:06air yards are like a hidden, a hidden code when you've got RBs that are getting, you know, those downfield looks.
65:14And we saw in that first preseason game, Bo Nix targeting RJ Harvey early and often.
65:19I do think Jonah Coleman is more of an insurance policy and maybe the future for a JK Dobbins.
65:25But in Sean Payton's offense year two, year two in this offense, I'm not, I'm not going full blown Alvin Kamara here,
65:33but he seems like he is settling into his role.
65:36And I just think fantasy gamers are a little slow to react to that because he's, he's not going to be the primary running back, Matt.
65:45I don't believe that you're the guy that you were talking to the other, the other RJ Harvey truther doesn't, but like,
65:53he's not going to be the primary, but he's going to be a really dangerous receiving back in an offense.
66:00It's pretty good. That's thrown the ball at an incredible clip back to back years with Bo Nix.
66:06And one of the biggest knocks against Bo Nix is all.
66:10He just checks it down. He just checks it down.
66:13Well, if you're going to check it down to RJ Harvey, then sign me up.
66:18So I'm very much in on Harvey and at cost, give me this player inside of this offense.
66:24To your point. And yeah, Ben Gretsch is the man.
66:28He's one of the best analysts in the game.
66:31And there, these are the top 15 running backs in air yards per target.
66:36Uh, RJ Harvey is 15th, by the way, uh, when I'm looking at one of them, actually let's go, let's go ahead
66:43and say he's actually 14th because the number one in air yards per target is Kyle use check fullback.
66:50Okay. Put that to the side, but anyways, yeah.
66:53RJ Harvey is 15th out of 15. If we're, if we're not going to put Kyle use check to the side there.
67:00So yeah, he, he does check that box there.
67:03Some interesting names at the top Ramondre Stevenson. If we're throwing out Kyle use check is number one on 37 targets.
67:10Kyron Williams is number two on 50 targets. Christian McCaffrey.
67:14Number four, Woody marks is just behind on 30, 36 targets.
67:18So small sample, but interesting in terms of the air yards on what do you want?
67:23That might, that might be something, uh, if we're talking about, uh, interesting, you know, Houston Texans backfield situation, but yeah, I
67:31think RJ Harvey can actually get those real designer looks in the past game.
67:35Obviously it's just like Jalen Waddle's there. Corlin Sutton is there, you know, Pat Bryant, the whole deal.
67:41It's getting a little thin, but I mean, Sean Payton likes these guys in roles and specific roles.
67:48And if RJ Harvey's just this like receiving back, I can see the path for him.
67:53It is just funny. Like, man, this time last year, everybody liked RJ Harvey and not nobody likes RJ Harvey.
68:00It does feel like that's a bit of an overcorrection.
68:03And it's just, that's what happens when the expectation is here.
68:07And then the reality is a little bit below that.
68:10And I think that's what you think about a second round running back or he's going to come in and it's just JK Dobbins, but you nailed it.
68:20You can look at any Sean Payton offense. Mark Ingram had a role.
68:24Pierre Thomas had a role. Deuce McAllister had a role.
68:28Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara. Alvin Kamara has never had a thousand yard rushing season, but his role was so fruitful and so valuable.
68:36It's, this is RJ Harvey's role. Like he will get some carries between the twenties, but when it's time to throw the
68:43ball, put the ball in the air, get those RB air yards.
68:47I can assure you he'll do a lot more of that than Jonah Coleman and JK Dobbins this season.
68:54Yeah. I think that's totally right. Um, just the, obviously again, it's an interesting backfield.
68:59I do think people have maybe forgotten about RJ Harvey, myself included.
69:03Um, I've been saying this, that I want to do a segment on the show by the end of the preseason where
69:11the audience tells us the guys that we didn't talk enough about.
69:15And again, I'm still taking those. I did see, we get, we, I saw, I saw, we got one good name, by
69:22the way, that was sent in fantasy mailbag at yahoo sports.com send in some players.
69:27We did not talk about enough leading up to preseason.
69:31Uh, I think RJ Harvey probably would have counted, but we did a little good discussion, uh, on the RJ Harvey situation here.
69:39One guy I've talked a ton about, but listen, if we're doing breakouts, I have to get the name on here because
69:46listen, if you've been listening to the entire, the show all off season, you know, you've heard me talk about this for
69:54the uninitiated folks who come in here in August.
69:57I know we've got some transient listeners in fantasy.
70:00Okay. They, they come in in August and check in what's going on and you're coming in and you're seeing, Hey, is
70:07Harmon excited about Roma Dunze again after last year where it didn't end so well.
70:12The answer is yes. I think Roma Dunze is in line for a breakout season.
70:18And honestly, Ray, I do think this one's a little bit cheating, but this is just my personal bias.
70:24Cause I think we already saw the breakout started to happen last year in the first eight weeks of the season when
70:32Roma Dunze was wide receiver, 11 in points per game, 19th in yards per route run, 15th in yards per game and trailed only.
70:40I'm on Ross, name Brown, Michael Pittman, Devante Adams, and George Pickens in touchdown catches.
70:45I think the film was even better than that is what happened.
70:49He got hurt heading into week nine, landed on the injury report, the fractured foot.
70:54We all know what happened here. Uh, now he's healthy.
70:58He says, he doesn't even think about that foot anymore.
71:01Uh, uh, the receiver coach Antoine Randall L one of the better receiver coaches in the NFL.
71:07He said, looks like the same old player to me.
71:10We're really happy about it. We don't even think about the foot.
71:14We're going to keep an eye on it. Cause you can keep an eye on everything, but nothing going on there.
71:21And again, I think the film was even better than those stats indicate here.
71:2685th percentile success rate versus man 93rd against press in reception perception.
71:30Perfect fit for this offense does the in breaking routes, does the outbreaking routes.
71:35They use them in motion. Um, you saw that even in the preseason game, uh, when he was out there for all nine snaps of Caleb Williams.
71:44So 65th overall ADP on Roma Dunes is one of my favorite breakout candidates again this year.
71:50We're not talking too much about it. Cause we've talked about this a bazillion times, but for the transient listeners out there,
71:58you know, who come in in August just to get the answers to the test, which is my least favorite phrase in fantasy football, but come in.
72:07Just wanted to see this thing. Yeah. Roma Dunes, a, the breakout happens this year after it got cut short because of the injury last season.
72:16Yeah, this I'm in lockstep with you with Odun say we've got them projected for Yahoo right here.
72:22Eight 74, 60 catches. I got them a hundred more yards.
72:26So right around a thousand yards, seven touchdowns, some more targets.
72:29And I do think this time that he's getting as the kind of ISO wide receiver with Caleb Williams will benefit him confidence.
72:37He played well last year. I'm not worried about the foot injury.
72:41There there's not a lot to say for the, for the transient listeners.
72:46Here's what I urge you to, to, to really, really, really, really kind of fade and not pay attention to.
72:53It is not a one or the other situation in Chicago.
72:56Don't do that. Right. So if I know burden and Odun say his ADP is close, don't feel like if one of
73:04them goes, you can't take the other one. Cause there's not enough around to go in this offense.
73:10Like if Caleb is just a little bit better, all of these guys are going to rise up and be better.
73:17So I'm with you with Odun say big fan of his game.
73:21And I think he's going to like fulfill the breakout this year.
73:25Like he's going to start, he started it last year.
73:29Now we get the end of the prophecy this season.
73:32Yeah. I think he's, I think he's, I think he's going to outscore Luther Burton this year.
73:38I haven't ranked ahead. I like Luther Burton as well.
73:41Burton's ADP has at least come down to 60th overall, uh, a dunes a 65th.
73:47So these guys are a little bit closer together.
73:50And I think that is the way that it should be.
73:53Um, again, I think we just saw like, we've seen more.
73:57I know, I know it's just people don't seem to grasp this, but we've actually seen like a longer extended stretch of
74:05Roma Dunze being a good player handling high volume than we have for Luther burden.
74:10And I, again, I like burden and I'm in on his breakout this year as well.
74:15Um, as long as he's healthy, which he's not currently, but as long as he's healthy, I'm in on that breakout too.
74:23But we've actually seen that stretch from a dunes a where we haven't, um, I love my favorite narrative from people is
74:30like, well, you know, Ben Johnson inherited, he inherited Roma dunes a, he drafted K he drafted a Colson Loveland and Luther Burton.
74:38Nobody ever says that by the way about Caleb Williams.
74:42Like he, yeah, he, he inherited Caleb. Yeah. Like, yeah.
74:45He inherited Roma dunes a, and then ran his whole offense through him in the first eight weeks of the season.
74:52Uh, as I just read those stats out there from a passing game perspective.
74:57Okay. I've said enough about Roma dunes. I mean, my God, I've certainly said enough.
75:02Um, this is the year he says for the third year in the row.
75:07All right. We are going to take our last quick break.
75:11We come back. We got a surprise special segment and a big announcement on the other side of this break.
75:17We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
75:21And yes, surprise announcement here. We are very, very excited.
75:25Very happy to announce our first ever Yahoo fantasy analyst live draft.
75:29That is right. It's going to be Tuesday, September 1st at 5 PM Eastern.
75:34All your favorite Yahoo writers, analysts, podcasters, you know, beautiful people, extraordinary are going to be there for a 12 team, 15 round draft.
75:42This is no mock, no mocks here. This is the Yahoo fantasy analyst league.
75:46We're going to play this bad boy out. We're going to compete against each other.
75:52Look at all these handsome gentlemen here on the screen.
75:55It's going to be absolutely electric. Ray, you're already laughing at me because you know, um, this is going to be fun.
76:03I like scale of one to 10. Very excited.
76:06One to 10 excitement level 11 except for if you get the one-on-one, I'm just gonna, I'm going to call for a recount.
76:13If you get the one-on-one somehow, I'm just, I'm just letting you know.
76:18I'm offended that you would even insinuate that I would rig something like this because, uh, I have not been a part of this process whatsoever.
76:27My hands look at them. They're clean. All right.
76:30So with the announcement today, we can, we're going to be announcing the draft order reveal right here, right now, our graphic
76:37wizard, Jason Jung, truly the goat has built a custom Yahoo random draft order generator.
76:43So let's get into it. Let me see the first pick here.
76:47Who is picking first in the inaugural Yahoo fantasy analyst league?
76:50Let me get pick number one. Who do we got?
76:54We got Joel Smith, Joel Smith. You know what?
76:57I think we're leading with our best foot forward.
77:00Joel might be the most handsome of all of the Yahoo fantasy analysts.
77:04And we got a lot of good looking fellas here.
77:08All right. At Yahoo, but putting our best foot forward with Joel, uh, he gets the first overall pick.
77:14So let me get pick number two in this one.
77:18Um, let it not be me. Oh, no. Okay.
77:21Okay. Okay. Okay. Here. Okay. Okay. Ray Garvin picking number two.
77:25Giddy up, baby. Giddy up. Giddy up. Giddy up.
77:28Cowboy hat. We're out. We're out, baby. Let's go.
77:31Me and Joel. There we go. I didn't know we had outfit changes for this one.
77:36All right. With that, let's see the third overall pick Ray Garvin picking number two, Joel Smith.
77:42Number one, our third overall pick is Justin Boone himself.
77:45Yes. We are outsourcing this to Canada for the third overall pick.
77:49All right. We will see what Boone does with the third overall pick fourth overall in the inaugural Yahoo fantasy draft league.
77:57It is Nate Tice. Nathan Tice will be drafting AJ Barner with the fourth overall pick because that's just the type of guy he is.
78:06All right. So we've got Joel Smith. We've got Ray Garvin.
78:09We've got Justin Boone. We've got Nate Tice fifth overall pick in the inaugural Yahoo fantasy draft league is Eric Edholm.
78:16Yes. Eric Edholm back for his, I don't know, fifth, sixth, seventh, seventh stint here with Yahoo.
78:22He just can't, he can't stop coming back folks.
78:25We can't keep him away. He's been, he's going to be doing some NFL work, some draft work with us.
78:32Eric is one of the Yahoo OGs really happy to have him back on staff.
78:37He is the man and he is picking fifth overall in our draft.
78:42Our sixth overall pick here, as everyone can see my hands are clean.
78:46I'm not a part of this process at all.
78:49Sixth overall pick in the Yahoo fantasy draft. It's Scott Pianowski.
78:53Scott will probably talk about, I said, I shouldn't be saying mog anymore.
78:57I'm too old to be saying that. Scott is actually going to draft mogus from the sixth overall pick here in this draft.
79:05Scott is the goat of all goats. Seventh overall pick.
79:09I mean, I'm going to definitely get one of these picks that I don't want.
79:14Seventh overall pick is max lobe. Oh yeah. Max crushes it on our social channels.
79:19If you've seen them all over Yahoo fantasy social, I'm sure you've seen max all over the place.
79:25He's got the seventh overall pick. Great. Good luck, Max.
79:29See in the streets. Big dog. Eighth overall pick here for the Yahoo fantasy analyst league.
79:34Oh, it's me. Matt Harmon. I hate, honestly, I hate that.
79:38I don't, I don't like it. You don't like the, I don't like it.
79:43I don't like it. I don't like it. I'm pissed.
79:46I'm upset. I don't want the eighth pick. I mean, Colin, JB, John, nobody, nobody can rig this thing for me.
79:53I'm going to have to, I'm going to, by the way, I'm, I'm hosting, I'm hosting this.
79:59I got to talk for like three hours. Yeah.
80:02People that listen to the show, like, yeah, Harmon, don't worry.
80:06I think we know you can talk for three hours.
80:09All right. I got to talk for three hours.
80:12I'm going to pick an eighth overall. Um, don't love that.
80:16Not sometimes I like the eighth. Sometimes Harmon is tilting right now.
80:20He is tilting. Sometimes I like the eighth overall pick in drafts.
80:24There's a particular player. I do like to take it that eighth overall pick.
80:29I'm just going to guarantee right now, right here, right now, that guy that I like taking eighth overall is not going
80:36to be available in this particular draft. So not a fan of that eighth pick, but you know what?
80:43We're going to, we're going to wear it like men.
80:46We're going to take it like a champ. We're going to pick eighth overall here.
80:52Let's see the ninth overall pick in the Yahoo fantasy draft.
80:55What do we got? Ninth overall Hayden winks. You know what?
80:59It's turtleneck. Yeah. Mr. Turtleneck himself. Uh, I will, I honestly, I'll Venmo Hayden 500 bucks.
81:04If he wears that turtleneck for the entire three hours with the suit, cause that would be quite a situation here.
81:12Uh, yeah, the story is Hayden winks CNN zone.
81:15Hayden winks is picking ninth overall in the Yahoo fantasy draft.
81:19All right. Tenth overall, who do we got picking 10?
81:22We got left Josh Norris, Josh Norris. Oh, look at that.
81:26Hayden Josh can't stay away from each other. Can't stay away from each other.
81:30They they're just, they're tied at the hip and they're picking back to back.
81:35That's just, that is adorable. That is absolutely adorable stuff.
81:39Really warms the heart. Okay. 11th overall pick. We got two more left.
81:43I don't even know who's on the board. Eric Froton.
81:47There we go. Our college fantasy football analyst, Jeremiah Smith, Matt, he's taking Jeremiah.
81:51He's taking Jeremiah Smith at the 11th overall pick.
81:54Eric, Eric reminder, buddy NFL. This is NFL, right?
81:57So these are pro football players. These are guys who have already exited college football.
82:03Just a quick reminder before we get into this whole thing.
82:06Okay. 12th overall. That means the last pick in the first round is Chris Allen.
82:11Unbelievable. Chris gets the last pick. I don't know, right?
82:15Um, I think this feels pretty just, you know, cause here's the deal.
82:19This is really about my integrity. And if I was picking first, you would have questioned my integrity.
82:25If I was picking last, that would have really been, uh, you know, it would look like I had something to hide.
82:33So I feel like picking eighth is probably justified.
82:36I'll just say this, Matt. I think we're going to have a lot of fun.
82:41This is going to be fun. So everybody needs to pull up.
82:45We got dope draft orders. I feel good where I'm at.
82:49So yes, I'm smiling. I'm happy. Right. You know, I feel good at that number two pick, but we're gonna, we're gonna have a good time.
82:58Y'all gotta come vibe out with us. Hang out.
83:01It's going to be guys just drafting. We're gonna have a great time, Matt.
83:06I'm excited. We are going to have a great time.
83:09And, uh, Joel has already let us know in the comments of this YouTube video.
83:14He said, let's go. Jameer Gibbs come home. Okay.
83:17So, um, we are one week away from the biggest draft Yahoo has ever put on.
83:23And even though you already know the first pick is Jameer Gibbs.
83:27All right. You get to, you get to sit the whole week knowing that Jameer Gibbs is going first to Joel Smith himself.
83:35You're still going to come here. Watch it unfold 5 PM Eastern on this YouTube channel.
83:40September 1st. Okay. So you people have a packed calendar, August 29th, Dick's house of sport in Amherst, New York.
83:47You're going to, I'm going to see you there on Saturday.
83:51And then I'm going to see you again in the YouTube streets on September 1st for the Yahoo fantasy analyst draft.
83:58You guys got a busy calendar and you know who else has a busy calendar?
84:03Us at Yahoo. All right. Cause it is the 29th year of fantasy football.
84:08And for day 16 of 29, we are revealing to you.
84:12You can now share your matchup or lineup as a single image right from the app, show off your stacked roster trash talk after a win.
84:21That's just one tap away. Now you don't have to do any cropping.
84:25None of that nonsense. You just hit share your matchup or lineup screen.
84:29Boom. Boom. Look at that. We just showed you here, Ray.
84:33We had a little fun together, talking a little trash, talking a little smack.
84:38Yeah. That's what fantasy is all about. Honestly, I saw a great, I wish I could credit the person, but I can't
84:46because I have the memory of the fish. Um, Instagram video I saw the other day.
84:51Um, it was, uh, someone's wife was like, you know, fantasy football really is, it just exists for guy.
84:57All guys want to do is really be, is like pick on each other and be mean to each other and, and
85:05talk, you know what, with each other. And that's basically what fantasy is.
85:09So this is a perfect addition for Yahoo fantasy, a 29 days of fantasy.
85:14And so will this draft race. So I hope you're ready, um, for us all to be very mean to each other one week from now.
85:23Yeah. Yeah. I'm excited, Matt. And I think you're going to be maybe, maybe doing some grading at the end.
85:30You'll do a little Matt Harmon grades at the end of this draft.
85:34So a lot of fun stuff coming up, man.
85:37I'm excited for it. I'm excited for it, baby.
85:40Yeah. I foresee, uh, one, a plus plus two, no three D's and then just the rest F's.
85:47Yeah. I would say that that's how that's going to go.
85:50All right. That's it for today's show. Hell of a show.
85:54Ray Garvin, our breakout candidates, the Yahoo fantasy analyst draft order reveal packed show.
85:59And we've got another big one coming for you tomorrow because Nate Tice joins me.
86:04As I said earlier in the show, we are going to identify the players that are better in real life than fantasy football.
86:12Some call them vultures. Some call them real ball knowers.
86:15Also, we're going to talk some offensive line, what are the offensive lines that you need to be invested in the players around them?
86:24That's going to air 4 PM Eastern on this channel Wednesday.
86:27Until then we are out.