PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Final ADP Cheat Sheet! Players We’re Stealing in Every Draft (09/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 3 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 1, 2026
Published
Tue, September 1, 2026
38
Player insights
31
Players mentioned
Topics
Braelon AllenBreece HallChris GodwinDavante AdamsGeorge KittleJordan MasonRhamondre StevensonAmon-Ra St. BrownBlake CorumBrian Thomas Jr.CeeDee LambChristian McCaffreyColston LovelandDJ Turner
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveProjection62:12
The source identifies Amon-Ra St. Brown as a preferred target at the fourth overall pick, ranking him behind only Puka Nacua in that draft slot.
Insight pageBlake Corum
PositiveValue86:46
Blake Corum is recommended as a contingency-based lottery ticket. The source argues he is a better value than Trevion Henderson, as he can be drafted 30 picks later while offering similar goal-line usage and a clear path to volume if Kyron Williams misses time.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
NegativeRole3:38
Aaron Glenn has praised Braylon Allen's specific utility in goal-line and short-yardage situations, suggesting he will carve out a niche role behind Breece Hall.
Insight pageNegativeRole21:47
The source acknowledges that Braylon Allen will see touches, specifically in goal-line and short-yardage situations, which creates a 'someone problem' for Breece Hall owners. However, the source hopes these are not high-value touches that significantly eat into Hall's overall workload.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveRole3:33
The source reports that Aaron Glenn has explicitly labeled Breece Hall a three-down back, signaling a secure, high-volume role for the upcoming season.
Insight pagePositiveUsage21:47
Despite concerns about Braylon Allen's role in short-yardage and goal-line situations, the source remains confident in Breece Hall as a three-down back. The source projects Hall to maintain his 17.4 touches per game average from last year, with potential for increased PPR production due to an improved Jets offense and better quarterback play from Geno Smith.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveBreakout75:15
Brian Thomas Jr. is ranked slightly higher than Chris Godwin by the source, who highlights his boom-bust potential as a WR3. He is expected to be a downfield threat, though he may see fewer targets than Parker Washington.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveValue31:00
The source is very comfortable with CeeDee Lamb as the WR5 overall and believes he is worth taking a few slots higher than his current ADP of 14th. The source expects a significant increase in touchdowns compared to last year while maintaining a high target volume.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue12:36
Jamie Eisenberg calls Chris Godwin the best value on the board, noting he is healthy, back in the slot, and has strong chemistry with Baker Mayfield. Despite his age and injury history, Godwin is a smash pick at his current round 6/7 ADP, with potential to finish as a top-20 wide receiver.
Insight pagePositiveValue75:15
The source identifies Chris Godwin as a strong value in the round 6-7 range, suggesting drafters should not hesitate to take him if he is available there.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeBust61:48
The source expresses hesitation about drafting Christian McCaffrey at the fourth overall spot, indicating a preference for other players like Puka Nacua or Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Insight pageColston Loveland
NegativeValue95:25
The source expresses hesitation about drafting Colston Loveland in the third round due to his high ADOT and reliance on a short stretch of production. He is considered a great pick only if he falls to the middle of the fourth round.
Insight pageDavante Adams
PositiveValue59:07
The source is aggressively drafting Davante Adams, noting his ADP of 57th overall in CBS leagues and recommending him as a target in the late fourth round. The source expects a higher catch rate this year by reducing his average depth of target (aDOT) and emphasizes his continued red zone threat status.
Insight pagePositiveValue98:27
Davante Adams is highlighted as a frequent target for the source in drafts, with an ADP of 57th overall. He is considered a strong value in the late fourth round, comparable to Emeka Egbuka.
Insight pageDJ Turner
PositiveDepth Chart59:07
The source identifies DJ Turner as a shutdown corner for the Cincinnati Bengals, contributing to the team's defensive outlook.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveBust97:06
While the source previously hyped Emeka Egbuka as a breakout, they now advise caution due to a toe injury and a difficult early-season schedule against tough pass defenses like Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Minnesota.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeValue25:14
Garrett Wilson is considered a solid late-round 3/early-round 4 pick, though analysts express concern regarding the Jets' quarterback situation and the addition of new pass catchers like Amari Cooper and Adonai Mitchell, which could impact his target share.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeInjury24:07
The source expresses skepticism about George Kittle playing in Week 1 due to a recent setback and the travel requirements. Fantasy managers are advised to have a backup tight end ready, such as Juwan Johnson, Dalton Schultz, or Dake Tongas.
Insight pageNegativeValue60:03
The source views George Kittle's ADP of 84th overall as appropriate value rather than a steal, and is frequently drafting him in the early eighth round. Despite his history as a top-three tight end per game, the source acknowledges the risk of him missing games and suggests pairing him with a second tight end like Juwan Johnson.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveValue76:43
Isaiah Likely is viewed as a valuable tight end target who will likely operate as a short-area receiver and red-zone factor for the Giants, especially with Malik Nabers drawing defensive attention.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveValue5:03
Dave Richard identifies Jalen Coker as a high-value target in round 12 of CBS drafts. Over the final eight weeks of last season, Coker averaged 5.5 targets per game and 13.1 PPR points, matching Terrace Marshall McMillan's production. He is expected to serve as the primary short-area option in an offense that will likely rely on quick passing due to offensive line injuries.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveValue6:41
Jamie Eisenberg views Jaden Reed as a top-100 pick and a potential breakout candidate who could emerge as the Packers' best receiver. Reed has shown high efficiency, scoring 13+ PPR points in 15 of his 23 career games with 5+ targets. He is expected to benefit from the Packers' backfield uncertainty and should be targeted in round 8.
Insight pageJordan Mason
NegativeDepth Chart61:32
Jordan Mason is briefly mentioned by the source as a player of note in the current roster context.
Insight pagePositiveValue90:52
Jordan Mason is preferred over other late-round running backs due to the strength of the Minnesota offensive line and the team's efforts to feature him. Despite limited passing game involvement, he is viewed as a more sustainable producer than the Washington backfield options.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveSleeper61:29
The source suggests Juwan Johnson as a potential second tight end to pair with George Kittle, noting he could get off to a very nice start.
Insight pageLuther Burden
NegativeBreakout32:58
The source views Luther Burden as criminally underpriced and expects a breakout year as the Bears' primary short-area target. While acknowledging some risk due to a small sample size and competition for end-zone targets from Cole Kmet (Colson Loveland) and Rome Odunze, the source recommends drafting him near the round 4/5 turn.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeInjury22:55
Malik Nabers' status for Week 1 is uncertain as he still has boxes to check before he can participate in practice, despite feeling good.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveValue22:32
The source prefers Michael Pittman over Wan'Dale Robinson, noting that the gap between them is only remotely close in full PPR formats. Pittman is expected to be ready for Week 1.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveBreakout80:20
Michael Wilson is considered a good value after pick 100, with the source projecting him for roughly 12 PPR points per game. He is expected to be utilized in horizontal, in-breaking, and out-breaking routes in an Arizona offense that is expected to throw frequently.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeUsage14:53
Mike Evans remains the focal point of the Buccaneers' red-zone offense, commanding 45 of the team's 87 end-zone targets during the Baker Mayfield era, significantly outpacing all other teammates.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection59:56
The source considers Puka Nacua a top-tier option, stating he would be the pick at fourth overall if not for concerns regarding a potential suspension. Nacua is back at practice.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveBreakout80:20
The source leans toward Quentin Johnston over Michael Wilson, citing his potential to be the number two target in the Chargers' offense and Mike McDaniel's commitment to getting him involved.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveValue37:14
The source is finally buying into Rhamondre Stevenson, noting he has been the best running back in Patriots camp. With a projected 15 touches per game and goal-line work, the source considers him a solid RB2 target in the late round 5/early round 6 range, despite a tough schedule.
Insight pagePositiveValue65:00
The source is finally buying into Rhamondre Stevenson as an RB2, noting he should see 15 touches per game and work the goal line in a solid offense. Despite concerns about a tougher schedule and target competition from Stefan Diggs and AJ Brown, the source argues Stevenson is a value at his 73rd overall ADP, viewing him as a lead back on an explosive offense rather than a high-end pass-catching specialist.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
NegativeBreakout64:15
Trevion Henderson is viewed as a high-upside lottery ticket who could become a top-three fantasy player if he overtakes the lead role. However, the source notes he failed to secure the job last year even when Stevenson was out, and drafting him requires waiting until the round 6-7 range to swing for the fences.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveValue76:43
Tucker Kraft is a primary tight end target for the source if they miss out on the top-tier options. He is expected to serve as a short-area target in the Green Bay offense, providing a reliable weekly starter option.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
NegativeValue60:56
The source suggests drafting Zach Charbonnet as a bench player to provide roster flexibility, specifically to allow for moving injured players to the IR spot.
Insight pageZay Flowers
NegativeInjury22:48
Although Zay Flowers is currently missing practice, he is expected to be ready for Week 1. The source confirms there is no reason to downgrade him based on this absence.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:55It's time to steal your draft thievery. That's what we're promoting today on Fantasy Football Today.
2:00And happy September, everybody. It is September 1st. It is Tuesday morning.
2:03And we've got ADP steals throughout the draft for you using CBS Sports' average draft position.
2:08Adam Azer, Jamie, and Dave here. We're also going to be on CBS Sports Network at noon Eastern.
2:13We've got news and notes. It says Aaron Glenn called Brees Hall a three-down back.
2:18And then he praised Braylon Allen's goal line and short yardage ability.
2:21We have an update on Zay Flowers. We have an update on Emeka Abuka.
2:25And by the way, Emeka Abuka's first three games of the season are against the top three teams against wide receivers last year.
2:32Cincinnati was second best. Cleveland was third best. Minnesota was first best.
2:36Does anyone ever say first best? How about just best?
2:39Yeah, best. That's Emeka Abuka's opening schedule. But anyway, let's be optimistic and talk about our favorite ADP steals.
2:44We'll get three here from each of you and then some more later in the show.
2:49Dave, you're on the clock. Let's start at the end of drafts.
2:52So it's round 12. You're looking at our ADP.
2:55You're trying to find somebody that you can just put on your bench.
2:59And I think this is someone that Jamie and I will agree on.
3:03Jamie might be a little more bullish. But it's Jalen Coker who, for whatever reason, is going in round 12 in CBS ADP.
3:09Look at the final eight weeks of the season, including the playoffs.
3:13Coker had 5.5 targets per game. Ted Arroyo McMillan, 6.5 targets per game.
3:17They had identical PPR averages over that span, 13.1.
3:19I know we're supposed to be excited about Jonathan Brooks and that Chuba Hubbard can come back and maybe they'll have the semblance of a run game.
3:27I think Bryce Young has to get the ball out quickly in this offense.
3:31The tackles are not going to be there. The starting tackles are not going to be there to begin the season.
3:38Jalen Coker is the short area option here. And he should play a lot.
3:42And as far as getting good bench receivers that could turn into number three receivers, I think Coker is the perfect guy
3:48to look at in the double-digit rounds. Would you take Xavier Worthy or Jalen Coker?
3:52Coker. Jamie? Coker, not close. Would you take Romeo Dobbs or Jalen Coker?
3:56Also Coker. Same. Okay. Jamie, you're up. Yeah, I'll go with the guy that I was talking about yesterday, Jaden Reed, another guy going relatively late around 11.
4:04And I think he's going to be the second best Packers receiver.
4:08And if things go right, he might be the best Packers receiver.
4:12So expecting Green Bay to throw more because of the running back situation, because of Michael Parsons being out to start the
4:18season, because of what the division is going to look like, I think those games are going to be fun shootouts.
4:24So Reed, 2023 was amazing. 2024 was okay. 2025 was injury plagued.
4:2823 games in his career with at least five targets, 15 of those games, he scored 13 or more PPR points and
4:34averaged 16 PPR points over that span. Give him opportunities, he will succeed.
4:38And I think he'll help with the run game also because of the Josh Jacobs absence.
4:43All right. So right now, average draft position has Jaden Reed 125th or 126 overall.
4:47You know, look, things could be changing for all of the Packers now.
4:51So where are you comfortable taking Jaden Reed? Round eight.
4:54Round eight. And that is what, like in the 80-ish range?
4:57No, it's 90-ish. It ends, round eight ends at 96.
5:00Six. Right. Sorry. So that's 84 to 96 overall.
5:03I should be better at this. I literally have a little piece of paper with the end of each round in front of me.
5:10That's how I knew that. Okay. I think I took him.
5:13Yeah. He's a top 100 pick. And Jamie made me think a little bit about Jaden Reed versus Matthew Golden yesterday.
5:19And I think in PPR, I think I'm with Jamie on this one.
5:23Just because Reed, short area target, slippery little sucker out of the backfield, lowish ADOT, although he can win downfield if he
5:29gets left open or just outruns a guy. I like Matthew Golden too, but there's things that I saw in the preseason
5:36game against Pittsburgh that make me pause a little bit.
5:39He got hung up on handsy coverage quite a bit.
5:42I think Reed can escape that. And if there are problems with the Packers run game this year, he's one of two guys I think benefits.
5:49The other one's being Tucker Craft. So I think in full PPR, I'm with you, Jamie.
5:54I think Jaden Reed's the better receiver to get out of Green Bay.
5:58Okay. Dave's up for round two, but I haven't given this stat in a long time and I love it.
6:04Over the last three seasons, Jaden Reed has twice as many carries of 20 or more yards than Alvin Kamara.
6:09As Alvin Kamara. Kamara has three and Reed has six.
6:12All right, Dave, round two for you. I love that stat.
6:16I've been bullish on Casey Concepcion all really since I've studied him back in March for the draft.
6:21And he reminds me a lot of Zay Flowers, just the ability to line up anywhere, run any route.
6:26He's got speed to win. He's got quickness to win.
6:29He can get open any way you want. And I see his average draft position in round 10.
6:35I think he's a round eight pick. I really do, especially in full PPR.
6:39And I know there's questions about those Browns quarterbacks.
6:41As bad as those Browns quarterbacks are, they are capable of getting the ball into Concepcion's hands, at least inside of 10 yards.
6:48And I think that's where the majority of his targets and catches will come.
6:52I think he's the best pass catcher in Cleveland.
6:55I think the Browns are going to be trailing in a bunch of games this year, which means the targets should be high for him.
7:02He's arguably my favorite late round. Can we call him a late round guy?
7:06My favorite, like, back a half of the draft wide receiver to take.
7:10I like Coker. I like Reed. I would take Concepcion over both of those guys, expecting him to see close to seven targets per game.
7:17Yeah, and rookies are usually a good bet late in the draft.
7:21There have been, over the last six seasons, 36 wide receivers, six per year, drafted in round nine or later, and finishing
7:27either top 24 overall or top 24 per game.
7:30And we had a five season stretch with at least two rookies every year who were drafted 97th or later, round nine
7:36or later, and finishing top 24 overall or top 24 per game.
7:40That ended last year. We did not have any last year.
7:43But rookie wide receivers are a good bet late in drafts.
7:46So far, we have Coker, Reed, Concepcion. Jamie, who's next?
7:49I think this is the best value of any player on the board right now and has been for a while.
7:56It's Chris Godwin going 90th overall, which is climbing a little bit.
7:59But the 36 wide receiver off the board. You just mentioned Emeka Abuka.
8:03We don't know when he's going to play. Chris Godwin reportedly having a fantastic camp.
8:07Healthy again. Back in the slot again, which I think is big.
8:11And just an easy pick if he's still there.
8:13Like, I would take him at the end of round five if I have to.
8:18But round six is where I think the sweet spot should be for him.
8:22He's a top 30 wide receiver. Could easily be a top 20 wide receiver by the end of the year.
8:28So, yes, he's coming off two injury plague seasons.
8:30Yes, he's older. He's in his 30s now. And, yes, Abuka should be the best receiver in Tampa Bay.
8:36But not healthy right now. Godwin's healthy right now.
8:39Baker loves Godwin. I think it could be an absolute smash pick if you get him at his cost.
8:44But you should certainly be looking to take him well ahead of where he's going right now.
8:49Adam, what's the stat on Mike Evans and red zone or end zone targets?
8:53Yes. Mike Evans. Let me just give it to you exact here.
8:57And so I'm not guessing. Okay. Over the last three seasons, the Baker Mayfield era, when Mike Evans has been on the
9:03field, he has had 45 of their 87 end zone targets.
9:06That is more than half. And no other player has more than nine end zone targets when Mike Evans is on the field.
9:13And he had 45. So it's just an amazing opportunity for everyone to score more touchdowns.
9:18And who's the guy that's played the most with Baker Mayfield over the last two seasons in Tampa?
9:23Cameron Brate. Okay. It's Cameron Brate. Very good. I think Godwin and Baker are on the same page.
9:28I think he's just going to be an easy middle of the field target.
9:33Jamie mentioned it. He's back in the slot. I don't quite have him in my top 30 at wide receiver.
9:38He's just outside of there, but should be going way ahead of where the ADP is.
9:43Yeah. And I look at NFC ADP over the last week and someone asked, what is NFC?
9:48So these are high stakes leagues, you know, big tournaments, things like that.
9:52I mean, I just went to the homepage today with Dave.
9:55There's like a $350 entry to win a few hundred thousand dollars or something like that.
10:00But you're, you know, you're paying, you can pay $50,000 for tournaments.
10:03I think something like that, or maybe I'm too high, but people are paying money to play in these leagues.
10:09Godwin is going 71st, which is the end of round six, right?
10:13And those are all very heavy wide receiver leagues.
10:15He is, but he's going as wide receiver 33, which is pretty much where you have him 29th.
10:21Jamie, Dave has them closer to 33. But yeah, I mean, the guys going right in front of him are Marvin Harrison Jr.
10:27and Carnell Tate. Oh, no, I wouldn't take Tate.
10:30I'd rather have Godwin. I'd rather have Godwin than both of those guys.
10:34Same. Okay. And then like I did a draft two nights ago and Godwin went 98th and my wife did a draft last night and he went 96th.
10:42And he is on, he is a family. He's in the family now.
10:46He's on both of our teams. Okay. Jamie. Yeah, but I heard, I heard Andrew say something about that, that ADR touchdown.
10:52He just hated it. My son. Yeah, we have, we have our first draft soon.
10:57All right, Dave, round three for you so far.
10:59Coker, Jaden Reed, Coker and Concepcion for Dave, Jaden Reed and Godwin for Jamie.
11:03Let's go. Can we go high end here? Yeah, sure.
11:06And let's go running back while we're at it.
11:09And Amar and Hampton going almost 20th overall in ADP feels a little too late to me.
11:14We know that he's the Chargers lead running back.
11:17There was talk a month ago about, oh, there's three guys in this backfield.
11:21Well, one of them is Kamani Vidal who played a ton in the preseason.
11:25I think he's a clear backup. The next one is Keaton Mitchell who has an undisclosed injury that we don't know much about.
11:32We know the Chargers haven't put him on IR yet.
11:34They said last night they expect him to play week one.
11:38So that's great. But I don't think he's going to take enough work away from Amar and Hampton to impact Hampton.
11:44And we know that the offensive tackles are healthy.
11:47We're assuming that the interior of that offensive line will be okay.
11:50And we know that Amar and Hampton is a baller at running back.
11:54Elusive, physical, big dude. Can work at the goal line.
11:57Can catch the ball out of the backfield. Has a genius play caller in Mike McDaniel who's done great things with the run game.
12:04Not just in Miami, but in San Francisco too.
12:06I think this is a huge opportunity for Amar and Hampton to take the next step in his career.
12:12I have him ranked. I have him ranked. Let me finish that statement.
12:16I'm looking at the wrong rankings. I am sorry for this.
12:19Just outside of my top 12 overall. And so don't mind him one bit at the 1-2 turn as a running back
12:25that you can look at and say, that's an RB1 for the season.
12:29I know a guy that we like a lot is Chase Brown at his ADP.
12:34And, you know, obviously we've done a lot of drafts.
12:37My favorite start, I think, in all the drafts I've done, drafting 11th was Chase Brown round one, Amar and Hampton round two.
12:43I think you guys would probably sign off on a start like that, right?
12:47Love it. Yeah, I think any combination of those two, two of the top 11 running backs gets you, I don't want
12:54to say a significant advantage, but it gives you an advantage because the receivers that you're getting in rounds three and four
13:00still have a chance to be extremely productive. So, like, to go running back, running back, which is never something that I
13:07would advise in the last probably 10 years, now makes some sense if you're at the back end of the first round.
13:13All right, Jamie. So who's your third guy? Yeah, we'll stay in the same team.
13:18We'll go Lad McConkie. He's going right now 41st.
13:2041.4 is his ADP wide receiver 17. I'd take him in round three.
13:24So I like him better than Zay Flowers. I think there's more upside for Lad this year.
13:29I know he loves Flowers, and I get it.
13:32But I think Lad gets back to his rookie level production as the floor, which was right around 15 PPR points per game.
13:38So you get a situation here where Quinton Johnson's going to have his moments and is a great pick, another good player
13:45that you're getting at a good cost. But I just referenced what they did last year, and it was a terrible year for McConkie.
13:52But when Joe Alt was on the field, they were averaging a touchdown better per game.
13:5725 points per game is what they scored in the six games.
14:00Alt played 18 points per game without him. And now you're putting Slater back on the field too.
14:05So you have both tackles available with Mike McDaniel calling plays.
14:09So, yeah, so Maureen Hampton's going to be awesome.
14:11Love Hampton. Great call by Dave. I think we're going to see Lad McConkie also get back to being the guy that we saw in his rookie campaign.
14:20Without Keenan Allen there, his role is now defined, where I think last year it was somewhat undefined because you can alternate
14:26and mix and match and do different things with Keenan Allen and Lad McConkie because they have a similar type of profile of where they could play.
14:34Quinton Johnson's not going to be moved as much.
14:37Trey Harris is not going to be, I think, a factor for McConkie.
14:40He's not coming off the field. And now you're giving this coordinator that quarterback where he once upon a time got a
14:47passing yards leader out of Tua Tunga-Vailoa. So Justin Herbert could be fantastic.
14:51You know I love the Chargers. And I think Lad McConkie is going to follow suit.
14:55So I would take him in round three, middle of round three.
14:59I think part of the problem last year for McConkie was he was hurt.
15:03Chargers offensive line was beat up. Herbert was under siege.
15:06And he just couldn't come up with the same type of production that we saw as a rookie.
15:11So I co-sign this. I think he's a round three pick.
15:14I go back and forth between McConkie and Garrett Wilson.
15:17And I love both of these guys' talents for sure.
15:20I've got McConkie one spot higher than Garrett Wilson, but they're both in that range.
15:25And you talked about this a second ago, Jamie.
15:27When you're looking at the wide receivers in late round three, those are two of the guys that are going to be there.
15:34And if you're okay with one of them being your wide receiver one, then taking RBs with your first two picks isn't really that bad of a plan.
15:42Yeah, McConkie versus Garrett Wilson is really interesting because I also like McConkie better than Wilson.
15:47But it's one of those things where when I looked into the research of the wide receivers that come out of this
15:53range, there's not necessarily any common thread. It's not great offense.
15:57You know, it's not that. Because obviously, if you're picking McConkie over Wilson, you're probably doing it because you want to take a charger over a jet.
16:04But I think the most important thing is pretty much always targets.
16:08And Matt McConkie, you know, even in 2024, he was on pace for 119 targets.
16:12In the last 10 games of 2024, when he was really good, I think he was on pace for 124 targets.
16:19Garrett Wilson, based on his career, is probably going to blow that away.
16:22I mean, he might have 30 more targets than Matt McConkie.
16:26I could see McConkie having more targets this year.
16:28I'm hoping he hits like the 130 mark. But I mean, if I had to project, I would have to project Garrett
16:35Wilson for more targets than Matt McConkie. Sure. I think that's fair.
16:38I would probably say it's 2025 tops. Yeah. You know, like 140, 120 feel safe for both those guys.
16:44You know, I think just looking at it, since the last time Garrett Wilson played a game for the Jets, they've added
16:50three prominent pass catchers, not anybody that's better than him, but players that are going to be involved.
16:55One of which is probably going to be somebody that takes a long time in Omar Cooper, but Sadiq, first round talent, Adonai Mitchell, they love him.
17:03You know, so those guys could take some opportunities away from Garrett Wilson since he's played a game for them.
17:09Plus the quarterback is different. So I think Garrett Wilson's a great late round three, early round four pick.
17:15I just think McConkie's ceiling is a little bit higher because of what you said, Adam.
17:20He's just in a better offensive environment. Yeah. And I will say this.
17:23I had this thought about Garrett Wilson. I don't know if we've ever brought it up because we brought up the Carson
17:30Beck thing with Trey McBride a lot. And the Cardinals have this really hard schedule.
17:34And at some point, are they going to turn it over to Carson Beck?
17:38Well, for one thing, Beck, he's had a rib injury.
17:41He hasn't played since the hall of fame game, but I had the same thought with, uh, with the jets though.
17:47It's like Cade club. Nick is their number two quarterback right now.
17:51They decided not to get a veteran. And if they're bad, I think at some point they probably have to turn it
17:57over to him and see what he's got. They have their first eight games are like four really hard games and four
18:04very winnable games, but they're probably not going to win all the winnable games.
18:08So they could easily be like two and six.
18:11They could be Oh, and four. I don't think they want to win.
18:14So that's, yeah, they're one of those teams. Well, Aaron Glenn probably wants to win because he he's on the hot seat.
18:21He's not going to last very long, but that might be like, unless he wins a Superbowl, it'd be surprising if he comes back anyway.
18:28Right. Right. But I was just saying, I think if he makes the playoffs, he's back.
18:33If they don't know about that club Nick at some point, like that's really bad.
18:37I think for Garrett. Yeah. So, um, all right, let's take a break news and notes coming up and more of our favorite values.
18:44CBS sports network today at noon Eastern and just some programming.
18:47The season starts a week from tomorrow on Wednesday.
18:50There's a Wednesday game and a Thursday game. So, you know, we'll do the Thursday and Friday start set as usual, but
18:57I I'm guessing on, on Tuesday, we'll probably have to do starter set for the Wednesday game.
19:02And on Wednesday, we'll do starter set for the Thursday game and whatever.
19:05But, uh, next week is going to be more week one stuff rather than draft prep.
19:10We'll have some draft prep in there, but, uh, this will be our last full week, obviously of draft prep.
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21:07Here are your news and notes. So as I mentioned, Jamie Aaron Glenn called Brees Hall a three-down back, and he praised
21:13Braylon Allen's goal line and short yardage abilities. Do you think Brees Hall has a Braylon Allen problem?
21:19I think every running back, for the most part, has a someone problem.
21:23It's just a matter of the extent of what you think that problem is going to be and what the coach is going to use him.
21:30So sure, there's going to be Braylon Allen touches.
21:33You hope they're not high-valuable touches, as David said, which is clearly true.
21:37Who Frank Reich has used two running backs in his past, probably to his detriment, has used two running backs in his past.
21:43So we'll see just how much Brees Hall comes off the field.
21:47I'm not scared to draft Brees Hall in early round four because of Braylon Allen.
21:51I'm scared to draft Brees Hall in early round four because of the Jets.
21:55So if it's Braylon Allen, if it's Isaiah Davis, look, he's still going to have, Dave, what's the number you kept saying?
22:0217 total touches per game last year? 17.4 touches per game last year and averaged 13.0 PPR points.
22:07I think the 17 is probably safe. I'm going to go north of the 13 because I think the Jets are better
22:14this year because of all the talent that they've acquired.
22:17And I do think that Geno is going to be a little bit better quarterback than what they had last year.
22:23So round four is the sweet spot for Brees Hall.
22:26Eight games under 10 PPR points for Brees Hall last year.
22:29Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf are expected to be ready for week one.
22:33Dave, I just got a text from someone said Pittman or Wandale Robinson.
22:36What should I tell him? I would tell him Pittman and it's only remotely close in full PPR.
22:42Okay. That's what I told him. Zay Flowers is still not at practice, but he is expected to be ready for week one.
22:48Anyone downgrading Zay Flowers? No. No. Okay. Damn. He's in that same early round four range for me.
22:54He sucks. Malik Neighbors says he feels good, but there are still some things he has to check off the box to participate.
23:00We still don't know if Malik Neighbors is going to be ready for week one.
23:05Josh Downs and that's a Cowboys. Ooh, yeah, man.
23:08I want him back for that. Last time he played the Cowboys, it was 40 points or something like that for him.
23:14It's pretty good. Josh Downs and Tyler Warren back at practice for the Colts.
23:18Jordan Tyson is on IR. Not a surprise. First four games of the year.
23:22He's out at least that. That's at Detroit, at Baltimore, Las Vegas, and Atlanta.
23:26Yeah. Tampa Bay gave Sean Tucker that one-year $2.5 million deal.
23:29We talked about that at the end of yesterday's show.
23:32Denver outside linebacker Jonathan Cooper is on the commissioner's exemplist.
23:35He's facing domestic violence allegations. They open with the Chiefs on the road.
23:39He already had a court date and pled not guilty, so he's farther along in the process than Josh Jacobs is.
23:45The Cowboys acquired offensive tackle Broderick Jones from the Steelers.
23:48He's going to compete to be their right tackle.
23:51We talked about Keenan Allen yesterday and the DWI arrest.
23:54The Patriots acquired running back Corey Kiner from Arizona.
23:56The Broncos waived rookie tight end Justin Jolie. That was a little surprising.
24:00And he landed on the Dolphins. Oh, okay. Good for him.
24:04The 49ers update. Okay. Christian Kirk and Isaac Arendo are on IR.
24:07That means they're out at least four games. Kyle Shanahan made some comment about George Kittle having a setback, or no, taking a step back.
24:14But I don't really know what he meant by that.
24:17I'd be very surprised if he played week one at this point, given the length of the trip and the fact that
24:24he's still coming back from this injury. So when you start to compare Kittle to likely Kelsey Goddard, the tight ends that
24:30are going around him based on ADP, and if you want to go a step further and maybe throw Fannin in there
24:37from a higher-end standpoint, and then the lower-end standpoint, Kincaid, Andrews, those type of guys, you have a decision to make.
24:43I still think for the season, Kittle's a strong pick.
24:46But make sure you have somebody to cover him for week one.
24:49So pair him with, I think you did this yesterday with Juwan Johnson, Adam, in a draft that we did.
24:55You can look at Dalton Schultz, who could get off to a good start.
24:59You could look at, if you wanted to, Dake Tongas, who was great filling in for him last year.
25:05So there are other options to help you. But at this point, you may have to carry two tight ends if you're
25:11not so inclined to, because Kittle might not be there to start the season.
25:15Well, I really like Juwan Johnson in a game at Detroit.
25:19You know, I think a lot of potential for points there.
25:22Obviously, no Jordan Tyson. Okay, who else we got here?
25:25Tank Dell is on IR. He's out four games at least.
25:28Same with, oh, and here's another reason why. Detroit safety Kirby Joseph is going to start the season on IR.
25:34Same with Chicago slot cornerback Kyler Gordon. He only played three games last year.
25:38Micah Parsons is on the pup list. He's also going to miss at least four games.
25:43I think I'm going to skip. Okay, how about this?
25:46Detroit wide receivers coach Scotty Montgomery talked about Jamison Williams becoming a total player, and he's got a good connection with Jared Goff.
25:52So more good buzz for J.O. Yeah. James Connors on IR.
25:55Isaiah Pacheco has a back injury. If he's out, Jacob Salyers is apparently Detroit's backup.
26:00ESPN's Brady Henderson, who covers the Seahawks, said his best guess is that Jadarian Price will be the lead back with George Helani on passing downs.
26:08I mentioned yesterday Travis Hunter. According to John Shipley of Sports Illustrated, Travis Hunter's been playing almost exclusively cornerback for the last two weeks.
26:15And Raiders head coach Clint Kubiak said both Ashton Gentry and Mike Washington Jr.
26:19are going to prepare to play a lot of football.
26:22And Jamie, you just talked about the top 11 running backs now.
26:25It used to be top 12. But I'm starting to think that Ashton Gentry's going to be ready for week one.
26:31If not week one, maybe week two. I can remember Devon Achan becoming one of the steals of the draft last year
26:38because there were concerns that he might not be ready for week one.
26:42But, and Heath has talked about this. I think he talked about it yesterday.
26:46Do you feel like the outlook for Gentry is worse now than it was because Washington has made such a statement?
26:52It's definitely a strike against him. You know, I don't think it's like, you know, similar to Braylon Allen and Brees Hall.
26:58Like if you're in on Ashton Gentry, you shouldn't be running away from Gentry because of Mike Washington.
27:04That being said, last year it was the complete and total Ashton Gentry show.
27:08And it still could be. But why would you not want to play Mike Washington for two reasons?
27:13One, early in the season, you have Gentry coming off this injury and Washington has looked great.
27:18And the second part of it is Washington has looked great.
27:21You know, so if you're a Clint Kuviak who just comes from a Super Bowl winning team that got great production from
27:28both of their running backs, that's probably a formula that would help your team, that would help your quarterback, who's either going
27:34to be an aging Kirk Cousins or a rookie in Fernando Mendoza.
27:38Like it just makes sense to give those guys opportunities and chances to both play.
27:42So I do think that you have to downgrade Gentry.
27:45I still would take him in early round three.
27:47I do not want to take him in the first two rounds.
27:51Okay. It's kind of amazing that Kyron Williams and Ashton Gentry had almost the same amount of carries last year.
27:57And the number two rusher on Las Vegas in terms of carries last year was Geno Smith with 41.
28:02Whereas we know what the Rams look like with Blake Corum.
28:06Yeah. That's positive game script versus negative game script.
28:08The guy who was supposed to be the number two running back in Las Vegas last year may not be doing work for us.
28:15Oh yeah? Or he muster. That'd be cool. And he wants to get into fantasy.
28:20Ooh. All right. That's it for the news and notes.
28:23A few quick things here. League settings. Someone asked, should Josh Jacobs be allowed in an IR spot?
28:28I think that's up to your commissioner, but if I were a commissioner and I'm terrible with that, the answer would be hell no.
28:35No. I only allow players on PUP and IR to go in IR spots.
28:39I do not allow players who are out, designated as out for a game, to be in IR.
28:44If you want to do that, that's fine. It's up to your commissioner.
28:48My recommendation is PUP and IR. And they should be on IR or PUP, not out.
28:53Right. That's what I'm saying. Yeah. Fab leagues. So typical league, maybe $100 budget.
28:57Make sure you allow $0 bids. I think that's really important.
29:00Don't bid, you know, like people who are kind of new to it, don't spend, like don't spend $5 to pick up a DST this week.
29:08That's going to really come back to bite you.
29:10We could probably talk about this for like 10 minutes, so I'm not going to do that today.
29:16Maybe on the mailbag, but you know, $1 for a DST, $0.
29:19Put in bids for three different DSTs at $0.
29:22Same with kickers. If you're doing that every week, you know, if a guy like, if a guy has 14 PPR fantasy
29:28points, and he's a, you know, someone that you're not really buying in for a full season, don't spend $20 on him in week one.
29:36You know, people spent 80% of their budget on Isaiah Likely a few years ago, and it was a total waste.
29:42So be cautious with it. If you feel like you have a guy who can help you win all season long, like
29:48there's an injury and backup running backs available, that's when you'd be aggressive.
29:52I wanted to mention though, for the FFT open, if you're in that, you don't need your fab.
29:57If you win your division, if you make it to week 16 and 17, you don't need any fab.
30:03You're the only person in your division. You can pick up whoever you want.
30:07So you are only, you know, think budgeting for the first 15 weeks.
30:11And someone asked a guillotine league question. I don't play in those, Jamie.
30:15I know you play in guillotine leagues quite frequently.
30:17What's your strategy? Are you avoiding the Emeka Bukas of the world?
30:21And do you look at early season schedule? You definitely should look at your early season schedule.
30:26You definitely should try to avoid injury plagued players going into the year, but there's going to be a point in every draft.
30:33Remember, it's an 18 person draft. You're going to run into having to take players, hopefully a good cost that will be significant factors for your team.
30:40So once you get past like really round four or five, every question starts to come into play for a lot of
30:47players, basically like round seven or eight, you know, for a 12 team league.
30:51So you start to just run into scenarios of, I can't avoid injured players.
30:55So like, I try to take as minimal risk as I possibly can early in the draft.
31:00For example, Christian McCaffrey, I think when fifth or sixth overall in the draft, Dave's in this draft also that we're doing
31:07right now, we just started this week. That's not something I would be doing.
31:11Forget about how I feel about McCaffrey. Like there's just risk involved with him early in the season.
31:16The good thing is he's healthy now. So you don't have to really worry about that, but like a book, uh, trying
31:22to think like Jenti, Jeremiah love like these players that have, injury concerns to take them early as a risk to take them at a good price.
31:30Absolutely. You buy into it. Yeah. Cause every week you're going to have opportunities to add great players.
31:36Cause one team's getting cut. All right, let's get back into the ADP steals.
31:40Dave CD lamb is interesting because he's going 14th.
31:42I've never, I haven't taken him in a single draft.
31:45And I think one of the reasons why is Omari and Hampton.
31:49Cause I like Hampton better. Um, and you already talked about him, but yeah, CD lamb, uh, at 14th overall, when would you take him late round one?
31:57And I've, I found myself when I'm picking late in round one in those 10, 11, 12 slots, getting lamb and Hampton.
32:03Cause Hampton does make it past the one, two turn pretty frequently.
32:07I, uh, I know that last year only only scored three touchdowns and he left a lot to be desired at an injury.
32:14Still on the whole averaged 8.4 targets per game.
32:16We've talked about the six game sample when Dallas had Quinn and Williams on defense.
32:21So their game scripts were a little bit different in those six games.
32:25Lamb had 9.2 targets per game. That was, uh, four tenths of a target better per game than Pickens, 16.4 PPR points per game.
32:32Pickens average more. Pickens scored more. And lamb had the high ankle sprain that he was dealing with.
32:37I think that he's healthy. Now I could see him doubling, if not tripling his touchdown total from last year while still getting a ton of targets.
32:45I am very comfortable with him as my wide receiver five overall.
32:48And when I'm taking him in late round one, it's with the idea that I don't really love any other wide receiver there.
32:55And the number of running backs that are left are all kind of in that same tier.
33:00Um, we're talking about Hampton. We're talking about maybe Devon H and we're talking about, um, Saquon, Derek Henry, Kenneth Walker, obviously,
33:06obviously should be part of that group too. If they all kind of look the same to me and I can look
33:13at those running backs and say, okay, I can get any one of them and, and I'm comfortable with them as my RB one.
33:20And I know I'm picking early in round two.
33:23I'm going to take the last best wide receiver and that's lamb.
33:26And then that opens up my team. I'm starting running back or wide receiver running back and plenty of options available for
33:33me to take a running back in round three, or I can just go receiver receiver with the receivers that are left
33:39in round three or four and still find a decent what running back in round five.
33:44But ultimately I think that he's worth taking a few slots higher than what ADP says.
33:48Okay. Omarion Hampton was next on your list and we already talked about him.
33:52Let's go to Luther Burden. Who's going 60 first in CBS ADP, maybe a little higher now that the reports have been
33:59bet have been good on him and he's expected to be ready for week one.
34:03How, how do you feel about burden? When would you take him?
34:07I would take Luther burden like really close to that round four or five turn range.
34:12I've got them right at 48th right now in full PPR, just expecting a breakout year.
34:16Look at this bears offense. I know that Deandre Swift's had a great camp.
34:20He'll run the ball. There's no question that Chicago want to do it.
34:24And they've got the offensive line for it, but I think burden is ticketed to be their best short area target.
34:30And while he can work in that role and make a guy miss and add a ton of yards after the catch and have explosive plays.
34:38That's one of the ways that you beat cover to defense.
34:41I think he can also win on intermediate routes and in breaking routes, middle of the field.
34:46I've talked about this role specifically a lot this off season.
34:49It's kind of how JSN and a Monroe St.
34:52Brown one over. Well, JSN last year, St. Brown the last several years.
34:56And who's the one that found a Monroe St.
34:58Brown and utilized them to the max? It was Ben Johnson.
35:02I think Johnson could see a version of that in Luther burden.
35:05I can't say that Luther burden is going to be ticketed for a ton of touchdowns because Colson Loveland figures to be that guy.
35:12And Loveland might actually lead the bears in targets.
35:15I do like Loveland more than burden, but I do think burden is criminally underpriced.
35:19If he's going in late round five, actually, he was the guy that's round six.
35:24He was, he was the guy when you were talking about high end guys.
35:28So I first guy I looked at was, was burden.
35:31And then Thomas sent a message about, you know, rounds three or four.
35:34So looked a little bit sooner than that, but yeah, he's this, this is one of those players that you hope as
35:41the news trickles in and we get a slew of drafts coming from this point forward, that his ADP gets a little
35:47bit closer to, I think what it should have been or would have been all along.
35:52If he had stayed healthy, I'll go the other way on that.
35:56I don't want this ADP to go up. I want, I want people to look in their draft rooms and to see
36:02that injury tag next to his name and go, Oh, I don't, I don't want to draft an injured guy, but he's practicing.
36:09He's fine. He shouldn't even have an injured tag next to his name.
36:13There's a dip here and you should be buying it with.
36:16Garrett Wilson, Tedrow, McMillan, Luther burden, rank them. I've got Wilson, McMillan, burden, uh, Wilson, McMillan, burden, DJ Moore, throw them in
36:22there behind McMillan, ahead of burden, Wilson, Moore, McMillan, burden.
36:25Okay. So yeah, I mean, that's kind of like a little more cautious than Heath, who's taking burden at the three, four turn.
36:32I am going to give you some very poorly researched statistics here because I just asked Google and the AI, um, overview came back with this since 2000.
36:40How many second year wide receivers have had a thousand yards, a thousand yards after getting 60 or fewer targets as a rookie.
36:47And Google came back with four, Victor Cruz, Antonio Brown, Rashid Shahid, and Adam Thielen.
36:51So, I mean, it's a lot to ask. That's only a thousand yards, by the way.
36:56That's not even that good anymore, but that's a lot.
36:59You know, it's a guy who had 60 targets last year and basically didn't have a training camp in a preseason this year.
37:06Uh, there's still some risk. And you talk about the touchdowns.
37:09You said Colson Loveland could be that guy. Romo Dunze has been that guy with Caleb Williams.
37:14He's the end zone target guy. He he's had, um, one of the higher over the last two seasons, Romo Dunze ranks
37:20eighth among wide receivers with 0.93 end zone targets per game.
37:24It sounds like I'm crapping on Luther burden. I love him.
37:27I mean, I think he's a great player, but I just, I do think it's worth noting it's really a very small sample size with him.
37:34So, you know, there is some risk there. Uh, okay.
37:37I hope that I didn't just cloud everything up, but felt like I had to, I mean, go, if it goes 61st,
37:44I'll take it every, you know, it goes 51st.
37:46I'll take them. Yeah. All right. Ramondre Stevenson, 74th, Parker Washington, 75th overall.
37:50If you're on the clock, Tucker craft, 76th overall in a vacuum.
37:54Who's the best value. They're all going, let's say 75th from Andre Stevenson, Parker, Washington, Tucker craft, Washington followed by, I think I have craft ahead of Stevenson.
38:02Okay. Uh, Washington Stevenson craft. Okay. But Dave likes all these guys, 75th overall, which is round six.
38:07No seven. Wait, 60. Yeah. It's beginning of round seven.
38:10Um, Stevenson, Washington, craft go. Well, so who am I talking about first?
38:14Ramondre? I mean, yeah, you know what? I, you don't have to convince me on Parker Washington or Tucker craft.
38:20You have to convince me on Ramondre Stevenson. Sure.
38:22He's been the best running back in camp so far for the Patriots.
38:26After being the best running back for the Patriots last season, he wasn't really taking off until late last year, but I
38:33think he's going to have the platform to be effective, maybe even a little more efficient than he was last year.
38:39I love that. He's been working more in red zone drills, catching passes from Drake may.
38:44I think he benefits from AJ Brown being on the field.
38:47Travion Henderson has not taken the step forward, at least according to reports that the Patriots were hoping for.
38:52That means Ramondre is going to stay on the field.
38:55He might even be able to withstand fumbling twice before losing some of work to Travion Henderson.
39:00And the fact that people are taking him in early round seven just tells me that they're not seeing what reality is with Ramondre Stevenson.
39:08I think reaching for him in round five is a step too far, but we're looking for running backs in that late
39:14round five, early six range that we're comfortable with as an RB two.
39:18And here's a guy who should see 15 touches a game, work the goal line.
39:22I think it's a good offense. I think it's a pretty good offensive line.
39:26I know it's a tougher schedule for the Patriots this year, but I'm, I'm finally, it's taken me like what, three years to buy into Ramondre Stevenson.
39:34I'm finally buying in just because I think the situation is good for him.
39:38You didn't convince me. That's fine. I'll take them after you pay.
39:42It wasn't your fault. I, yeah, I don't know.
39:45I mean, I don't see, I think he was RB 22 per game last year and Travion really didn't do much at
39:51all in the games that Ramondre was healthy. So if Travion has a, an increased role, I've been saying Travion's really, that's the hard thing to buy though.
39:59I don't know about that because he, again, he didn't really have that big of a role except when Ramondre was out.
40:06And I think Travion is an explosive player that they need to get on the field.
40:10I don't want to draft him, but you, you say that they need to get on the field.
40:16They didn't need to get them on the field last year and they played him less in the important games last year and made it to the Superbowl.
40:24But he, and now they just added two significant playmakers in the passing game, which is a good point because when Stefan
40:30Diggs was on the field last year, Ramondre Stevenson had a eight was 7.2% target share.
40:35It was 8.7% when he was off the field and he didn't play that much.
40:39And AJ Brown's going to command more targets. So that's my way of saying, yeah, I don't look, you're not, you're not
40:46drafting Ramondre Stevenson because he's going to all of a sudden become Christian McCaffrey.
40:50You're drafting him because he's the lead running back on what should be an explosive offense.
40:55That as you have said time and time again, and I completely agree is going to probably have to carry them a
41:01little bit more because their schedule is tougher and they don't have the opportunity to win games as handily as they did last year.
41:08That's not good for Stevenson. Well, I don't think it's bad for Stevenson because I think they're going to score more.
41:14So I think you're going to see a situation where there's better offensive production in totality.
41:19Some of the metrics may be worse because of just having the ball more in their hands and having to produce more.
41:25But I think just in comparing the two running backs, like if they don't trust him in past protection, forget about him playing an obvious passing down situations.
41:34And if they're not going to use him on first and second down, which why would they at this point?
41:39Stevenson is going to be on the field a lot more.
41:43And so if you just go back to last season, it was all but two games where Stevenson played all, but Stevenson
41:49played more than, than Henderson in all, but two games in terms of playing time.
41:54And so I don't see that changing barring injury.
41:56Now, the thing is that, you know, we've, we've done these zoom calls for the people that bid on St.
42:02Jude and just did one right before this. The only reason I bring it up is because talking about taking Ramond, Jerry Stevenson around six.
42:09And the thing that I said to the person that doing the zoom call with the, the biggest fear that I would
42:16have with drafting Ramond, Jerry Stevenson, it's not when both guys are healthy.
42:20It's if Stevenson gets hurt and then Henderson takes off and does everything right when he gets those moments.
42:25Clearly he did everything right in those three games, but not to the extent of you didn't Wally Pippen, you didn't take
42:32the job away from him and he's never getting it back.
42:35So I think that's the concern is if Henderson comes in, whatever amount of time Stevenson misses, if it's an ankle sprain
42:41or something that just keeps him out for a minimal amount of games, then if Henderson runs away with the job, bye
42:48bye Ramondre, because you're right, Adam, we can all see who's the better player.
42:52But it didn't, it wasn't like things work. It wasn't like that last year.
42:56I mean, Henderson theoretically could have run away with the job last year.
43:00That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. I don't really like, I don't draft either of them, I guess, which maybe is crazy.
43:07I think so. I don't think you're alone. Well, I'll give you, I'll give you, I'll give you one time where I've regretted not drafting Henderson.
43:14It was our CBS sports draft a fun league, right?
43:17So the results are on the site. I went zero RB in that league.
43:21And the first running back that I took was Rico doubt and I was torn.
43:26It was Rico doubt on Trevion Henderson were the two running backs that I was considering.
43:31And I'm like, do I want the highest upside play because of the build that I have?
43:36Or do I want the safer floor because of the build that I have?
43:40And that's going to be one that haunts me because if Henderson hits, Oh my God, that team is absolutely ridiculous because
43:46I love the receivers, love the quarterback level 10.
43:49But if I don't have any confident, if I only have any confidence in the running backs that I have there, and
43:55I can't have any confidence Henderson right now, then that's not the right move to make.
44:00So it's, it's a really tough call. It's really difficult of, of whatever you view Henderson.
44:05I feel like the type, the time to take Trevion Henderson is you've got your two running backs that you love.
44:11You got your receivers, maybe quarterback or tight end.
44:13You get to that round six, seven range and you're like, I'm swinging for the fences because if he hits, he's going
44:20to be the best player in fantasy. One of the top three players of fancy, like just, just that much potential.
44:26We saw it in those games. He had five games last year, three without Ramondre, two with Ramondre, 16 PPR points or more.
44:33Yeah, I, right. He was great. And for Ramondre, Dave, like I actually like his ADP.
44:37I, I guess I personally wouldn't call him a steal there.
44:41I think that's kind of where I would take him 73rd overall.
44:44As RB twos go, that's as steely as you can get.
44:47Okay. I still think you treat him as a flex, but sure.
44:51Um, all right, we're going to take a break here and we've got more from Dave.
44:56I've got a few players I'll throw at you as well as great values draft day steals.
45:01And I'll tell you why there's this one spot in the draft that I absolutely hate picking at.
45:06I picked there last night. I hate it. I'll tell you why in a little bit.
45:11We'll be right back. Dave's got a couple of wide receivers going between 87th and 91st.
45:15Overall, Chris Godwin and Brian Thomas jr. Who do you like better?
45:19I have BTJ ranked a little bit higher. Okay.
45:21Okay. And you know, do you think these guys should be like around earlier?
45:25Yeah. I mean, we already talked about Godwin as around six pick, even around seven pick.
45:30If you find them there, I don't think you should hesitate.
45:33And BTJ is in that same range. We know what his upside is.
45:37You just have to hope that he stays healthy.
45:40As long as that happens, he's not going to get as many targets as Parker Washington from game to game.
45:46I think it'll be close. And I think there'll be further downfield.
45:49And there will be some games where BTJ is like one of the best boom bust number three wide receivers that you could ask for.
45:57Who's a better value? Parker Washington, 74th overall or Brian Thomas jr.
46:0086th overall Washington 87th. Okay. Next up, we've got Isaiah likely.
46:03At 95th. So Tucker craft, 76th or Isaiah likely 95th.
46:06Who do you like? I think because of the running back issue in green Bay, and it's not to say, I don't like Marshawn light.
46:14I just don't like Lloyd as much as you do, Adam.
46:17I think I'm going to lean craft, but I, these guys, these are two of the tight ends that I'm going to target.
46:24If I miss out on the big four at the beginning of drafts.
46:27So Bowers goes too soon for me. McBride goes too soon for me.
46:31I whiff on Loveland. I whiff on Warren. I'm not panicking.
46:34I'm going to look to get one of these tight ends.
46:38Once I get to, let's call it even round six, because I know craft is going a little bit behind round six,
46:44but in round six, if I want to try and get somebody that can be a difference maker at tight end, or
46:50at least be a guy that I can start at tight end every week.
46:55And I have to think about, I don't have to play the waiver wire to try and find a tight end.
47:01Don't have to stream a guy. I think craft is there.
47:04And I think likely is there. And I think they both play a very similar role for each of their offenses.
47:10I think they're short area targets for their quarterbacks.
47:13Yeah. Likely. I mean, I would craft a much better yak guy than everyone in football history, honestly, throughout the course of his career.
47:20Likely. We still don't know what kind of player he is.
47:23I think he's a good player. I don't think he's necessarily, you know, a wowie zowie athlete.
47:28That's just going to run away from people. He'll run away from the slower defenders out there, but I just big body, easy target for Jackson dart.
47:36Giants. Giants want to run the football a lot, but I also think they don't want dart to do it.
47:42And so that means he'll stay in the pocket a little bit longer, check down a little bit more, throw the short pass a little bit more.
47:50And I think likely will be that guy. And that also means that he'll be a factor in the red zone.
47:56And as long as neighbors is healthy, that's going to make coverage a lot easier on likely.
48:01Okay. Let's go to, and I just love tight.
48:03I love the tight end position. There's so much value up and down the board.
48:08You can take any approach you want at tight end.
48:11You want to go early. You want to wait for likely 95th overall, or keep waiting and Kelsey, whatever.
48:16Jawan Johnson with your last pick, whatever it is, it's just so much value.
48:20There is Quentin Johnston, 98th overall, Michael Wilson, 102nd overall.
48:23Who do you prefer there? If we need a bench wide receiver.
48:27I think it's really close between those two. I've got Wilson two spots ahead of Quentin Johnston.
48:32And I think they're both kind of serving in that same role where, well, maybe Johnson maybe has a little bit of
48:38a better role just because he can be the number two target getter for the chargers.
48:43Whereas Wilson will, it might take a lot of work for him to be the number two guy, but he could be number three.
48:50It's just going to be an Arizona offense that I expect to continue throwing the ball a ton this year.
48:56Love the way that he was utilized in the preseason.
48:59We heard about that being the case in the off season.
49:02And I just think that LaFleur is going to be a better play designer for this offense than what we got out
49:09of, uh, out of drew Petsing the last few years there.
49:12And I don't think it's necessarily a slight at Trey McBride.
49:15I just think they're going to throw the ball a ton.
49:18And I think it's going to be a little bit more even between the three players.
49:23McBride could be down to eight targets per game.
49:26Marvin Harrison, Jr. Michael Wilson, probably closer to seven targets per game, maybe six and a half for Wilson and just a really good value.
49:33Seeing him going after pick 100 overall, that's round nine for receiver that we, we know what his upside is.
49:39We saw it last year on film. It will not take much for him to be 12 PPR points per game.
49:45I don't think he's going to get to like 20 or whatever.
49:48He was at last year. 21.2 points. Let's flip that two in the one.
49:53It's going to be more like 12, but six for 60.
49:56I think he could do on a fairly regular basis, throw a touchdown in there every now and then a couple of breakaway plays.
50:03He's going to be able to win on those in breaking and out breaking routes, those horizontal routes that we're looking for from wide receivers.
50:10Now he should do more of those than Marvin Harrison, Jr.
50:13It's just a matter of whether or not he'll be a primary in the red zone compared to McBride and compared to Marvin Harrison, Jr.
50:21We already have the one play against Las Vegas where Marvin, Harrison, Jr.
50:24Was the primary read and he scored a touchdown on a great throw from Brissette.
50:29Marvin. The problem with Michael Wilson is that he was just so bad last year when everybody was healthy.
50:34It was like glaring how disappointing and uninvolved he was.
50:37And so hopefully LaFleur recognizes what he did last year and will utilize him like that.
50:42I think just comparing the two, it's very obvious that Mike McDaniel is going to utilize Quinn Johnston and try and get him involved.
50:49So I would, I, I think there's more upside with Quinn Johnston to be hits, you know, for a guy that has
50:56back-to-back seasons with eight touchdowns and hopefully can do a little bit more with everything else.
51:00Plus maybe another touchdown or two. So I, I lean Johnston cause I think he's going to be better.
51:06Uh, plus, you know, again, like Michael Wilson's career has been just largely disappointing until you had this perfect storm of Jacoby
51:12Brissette throwing all the time and Marvin Harrison not there.
51:15Even in the second half of the season, there was only one game where they were both on the field together where
51:22Michael Wilson did well is because he scored a touchdown.
51:25So if I really felt like I could get Quinn Johnston 97th or 98th overall, I mean, he'd be on every single one of my teams.
51:32Yeah. Uh, he went 80th in our podcast league in one of my FFT open leagues.
51:37Let's see. Quentin Johnson. Sorry. I was trying to pull this up beforehand.
51:41He went 98th. Uh, I wish I had taken him there.
51:44Um, so I won't keep going. This is probably boring for everybody, but I love it.
51:49Uh, I love the value there. Both those guys that, you know, when Johnston, if you, if you missed out on your
51:55chance to get Hampton or McConkie and you want a later spot of this chargers offense and you don't take Herbert Johnston's the way to do it.
52:03All right. Dave will finish up. Blake Corum 104th overall.
52:06And then Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt 105th overall. Pretty different players.
52:09Yeah. Right. Like who do you prefer? I prefer merit, but it's because I know that he should be the lead back
52:15for the commanders to begin the year. I don't know if that's necessarily a great thing, but if we're looking for running
52:22backs that are guaranteed and I'm using that term loosely touches, merit would be that guy.
52:26I'm probably a little too bullish on him. Did the Krosky member of the family do something to you that you won't call him Krosky merit?
52:34No, no, it's, I'm just trying to shorten my syllables here.
52:37Okay. I should just be calling him bill. Right.
52:40Instead of saying Corey Krosky merit every time I say his name.
52:43Yeah. But it, let's just do simple opportunity math here.
52:46He should be the lead back for an NFL offense.
52:49I know the offensive line isn't great. I'm not sure how good this offense will be.
52:54I'm leaning toward it not being particularly good, but at bare minimum, he should see an efficiency boost for however long Jaden Daniels is healthy.
53:01And Blake Corum is a waiting game. We're waiting to see if he overtakes Kyron Williams.
53:06I think as long as the two of them are healthy in LA, it's going to be a tough sell for him to completely overtake Kyron Williams.
53:14But the contingency upside is very obvious for Blake Corum.
53:17And I think it depends on what you need by the time you get to round nine in your drafts.
53:23If you love your running backs and you want a lottery ticket, Corum is your guy.
53:27If you went hero RB or zero RB and you need somebody who can start for you in week one, and you'll
53:34have a reasonable amount of confidence that would be bill.
53:37Adam, just because I think it's worth mentioning, because we talked about both, give your, your, your take on Blake Corum versus
53:43Travion Henderson, which I've seen stolen in a few places.
53:46No, I was just saying like Travion Henderson, the ADP is finally starting to go, go down on Henderson there, but it's
53:53like, I think he was going in the sixth round.
53:56He still might be going in the sixth round.
53:58I think he was going in the fifth round at one point.
54:02Yeah. Fifth, sixth, seventh round for Henderson. It's like, what's the difference between Travion Henderson and Blake Corum?
54:07You can get that same upside 30 picks later or something like that.
54:11You know, the same with Kyle Mononga and, and both all those guys are going to have a role.
54:16Blake Corum averaged 10.5 carries per game in the last 11 games of the year.
54:21While Kyron Williams averaged 14.9. It was a report.
54:23There were a couple of reports earlier this year.
54:26That was going to be closer to 50, 50.
54:29So, um, I don't really buy that, but you can get 10 carries by not a lot of catches, but he had eight goal line carries.
54:36They both had eight goal line carries, Kyron and Corum in the last 11 games.
54:41Uh, so it's just doesn't make any sense to me to take Travion Henderson when you can take Blake Corum 30 picks
54:47later or whatever the case may be. Now I want to bring up one other running back here.
54:52Cause one of the guys that I thought was a good pick, uh, at ADP was Jordan Mason.
54:58And he's right in this group here with Corum and Corey Krosky merit.
55:02And he's probably more similar to Corey Krosky merit.
55:04I guess I prefer Jordan. I do prefer Jordan Mason.
55:07Same. Not even close. It is close because you know, the reason why I originally preferred Mason was with the reports that
55:14he was going to be the guy and Aaron Jones was just going to kind of be the passing guy, but then
55:20lo and behold preseason starts and it's not that at all.
55:23I mean, it's basically an even split, but I, the reason why I still prefer Mason is the injury to Laramie Tunsil.
55:30I think it could have a really big effect on the run game there because you've lost an amazing tackle.
55:36You've also moved the guard out to tackle. It could really hurt that offensive line.
55:40Um, Jamie, why is it easily Mason for you?
55:43Offense a hundred percent offense, you know? So I think you just look at it as I think Rashad white's going to be a, a big factor also.
55:51So it's not like, you know, you know, Ja'Cory Krosky merits alone and not getting competition.
55:55So it feels like they're both going to be in similar spots.
55:59Obviously Ja'Cory Krosky merit has huge upside, but like you just said, you know, the offensive line is a potential issue for the commanders.
56:06Whereas the offensive line should be a strength for Minnesota feels as if they're trying to make things more sustainable for Jordan
56:12Mason to have a big year by changing how they're blocking and what they're trying to do to feature him a little bit more.
56:20Again, this guy averages five yards per carry for his career, 4.8 yards per carry last year.
56:24Not going to be a factor in the past game.
56:27Neither is Bill, 28 career catches for Mason. So I think Bill might have a slight advantage there.
56:33If you go back to the report, we had about a month ago of him being more involved in the passing game
56:39and camp, but I still got to see that first.
56:42So if we're talking about the, I shouldn't say it's, it's, it's, it's easy.
56:46Uh, but I just prefer what I expect to be the better running back in Minnesota to the better running back in Washington.
56:53Okay. And Dave prefers Bill. Um, but Dave also likes Casey Concepcion, Josh Downs, Matthew Golden, and Jalen Coker late in your drafts.
57:00Can you please rank Concepcion, Downs, Golden, and Coker?
57:02Concepcion, Downs, and I think I now have Coker over Golden.
57:06Okay. Concepcion. I have to double check that. Do you like Concepcion better than Quentin Johnston or Michael Wilson?
57:11No. Okay. So you go Wilson, Johnston, Concepcion, Downs, Coker, Golden, and those are good players to have.
57:16I've got Golden over Coker. I'm sorry. Okay. So those are good players to have in your, on your bench.
57:22Absolutely. I'll give you four or five steals in drafts.
57:25I think Colston Loveland, 42.3. That's his ADP. Colston Loveland in the middle of round four, almost late round four.
57:31Nah, let's call it the middle of round four.
57:34Exactly in the middle. Dumbass. And we know who he is.
57:3710 or more targets. Well, we don't know who he is.
57:4010 or more targets in each of his last four games, including the postseason.
57:44They didn't throw a single screen pass to him last year, and he's got kind of a high ADOT.
57:50That, that concerns me. And that, plus like the fact that, again, it was only a little bit of a stretch, makes
57:56me hesitant to take Loveland in the third round.
57:59And when I'm drafting with Dave and Jamie and Heath and all these guys, I have to take Loveland either late third or really early in the fourth.
58:07If I can get him, once McConkie, Devante Smith, Zay Flowers, that group's off the board.
58:12Travis A. Chan, and Javante Williams are off the board.
58:15And we're starting to talk about Brees Hall, Garrett Wilson, Ted Rowe McMillan.
58:19That's when I'm more comfortable taking Loveland. If he does get to me in the middle of round four, I think it's a great pick.
58:26Emeka Buka, 44.5. Dave, I totally bought your hype about him as a round three breakout.
58:31I just think the toe injury, you have to be careful considering that.
58:34Of course. But not only that, his first three games, I think I said it on the air, right?
58:40I said it off the air, but they said it on the air.
58:44Cincinnati, Cleveland, Minnesota. They were one, three, and two.
58:46They were two, three, and one against wide receivers last year.
58:50That's a tough way to start. And I buy it too.
58:53I mean, I think they are going to be good against wide receivers.
58:57Cincinnati, maybe not as good. Cause one of the reasons they were so good is they were terrible against the run.
59:03They'll be better there, but they have a shutdown corner and DJ Turner.
59:07So a Buka. Now, another guy I love is Devante Adams.
59:10I have been drafting so much Devante Adams. He's going 57th overall in CBS leagues.
59:14And I would take him late in the fourth round.
59:17I think he's right there with a Mecca Buka wide receiver, nine per game last year.
59:22And if he catches eight touchdowns, I did the research.
59:25Most of the time, if you catch eight touchdowns, you're almost guaranteed to score at least 14 points per game, which is,
59:31which last year was pretty damn good. Um, so he also, I think he's going to catch.
59:36I think he's going to have a higher catch rate this year.
59:40He had one of the worst catchable target rates.
59:42Devante Adams did last year of any wide receiver in the NFL.
59:46He had a career high a dot. Let's bring the a dot down.
59:50Let's bring the catches up. And he's still going to be a red zone threat.
59:54By the way, Adams played one game without Puka Nakua.
59:57He caught three touchdowns last year. Nakua back at practice.
60:00I don't know if you said it. I did not say that.
60:03Thank you. Yeah. George Kittle, 84th. I, I called, I shouldn't have called this a steal.
60:08I think that's really appropriate value for Kittle. And I have in fact been taking a lot of him early in round eight.
60:15I think that's the perfect time to take George Kittle.
60:18Let me ask you a question. First off, going back to what we talked about earlier, if you know that he's going
60:24to miss at least one game, are you still taking him there?
60:28Yeah. It has zero effect on me. If you know, he's missing three games.
60:32No, but Tom just was pretty good last year.
60:35Okay. Well, hold on one more question. Yeah. If you know that he's missing at least one game to potentially three, because he didn't get put on IR.
60:43So it's assuming it's less than four and you only have five bench bots.
60:47Are you taking him? Yeah. Yep. Yeah. It's tough.
60:50I mean, it's a, it's tougher, but if, you know, maybe you take Zach Charbonnet with one of your bench players, then
60:56you put them on IR and pick up a tight end.
60:59But no, I understand the question. I just look George Kittle.
61:02We know, we know who he is. He's been a top three tight end per game in seven of the last eight seasons.
61:09He's coming off a torn Achilles, but I'm just starting to feel like medicine is, has advanced so much that these guys
61:16are just, you know, breaking trends and, and coming back better.
61:19I'm not going to rule it out for him.
61:21I do think he's a guy that you should probably take a second tight end and Juwan Johnson could get off to a very nice start.
61:29So I think that's a good pairing. And I mentioned Jordan Mason and that's it.
61:33And I will end the show with my random thought of the day.
61:37I hate picking fourth. I really don't know who to take.
61:41It would be Puka Nakua easily for me if I didn't think there was a chance he'd get suspended, but, um, I hate it.
61:48It makes me want to take McCaffrey, but then I feel like Dave and Jamie and Heath are going to throw tomatoes at me for picking McCaffrey.
61:55You take who you want. Yeah, dude, we're not going to, first of all, I'd like to enjoy my tomatoes, make a nice sauce.
62:03It's his favorite fruit, right? Yeah. Who do you, why would I waste them by throwing them at you?
62:08Who do you take fourth? Puka? Yes. And if not Puka, it would be St.
62:12Brown. If not St. Brown, it'd be Jason. It would not be Christian McCaffrey.
62:17I just feel like I'm going to get it wrong.
62:20Like picks one through three is so easy to me.
62:22I really like picking late in the, in the round four or five, six, seven.
62:27I'd say, I just feel like I'm going to screw it up.
62:30How do you feel when you're up in late round four too?
62:34Well, Devante Adams is on my team. And by the way, if I took Puka Nakua fourth overall, I'd still would be fine taking Devante Adams.
62:41I mean, that'd be better if I could do it in round five.
62:45Sure. So Dave, when you're, when you're, when you're late round four, like pick 40, you're good.
62:50I mean, so stupid. All right. That's how it is in a 10 team league.
62:55At least we got to give you credit for that.
62:58Thank you. Thank you. Okay. That's it for today's show.
63:01We'll talk to you on CBS sports network at noon.
63:03Eastern for Dave and Jamie. I'm Adam. Talk to you tomorrow.
63:07Podcasts.
