PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
2026 WR Preview Part 2! ADP Preview, & WR Strategy! Draft Prep Guide (08/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 7, 2026
Published
Fri, August 7, 2026
28
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
Jordyn TysonLadd McConkeyLuther BurdenAlec PierceCeeDee LambChris GodwinChris OlaveChristian WatsonD.J. MooreDeVonta SmithEmeka EgbukaGarrett WilsonJalen McMillanJayden Reed
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeInjury41:07
Dave Richard notes that Alec Pierce is currently dealing with an injury, but he expects him to return sooner rather than later and advises against panicking regarding his absence.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection10:05
Lamb is considered a safe, high-floor asset with a projection of approximately 17.5 PPR points per game. He is expected to command 8-9 targets per game in a high-powered Dallas offense, making him safer than the round three wide receiver tier.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue80:32
Heath Cummings is back in on Chris Godwin as a value pick in round nine (WR42). Despite concerns about his recovery from a previous leg injury and slow tape from last year, Cummings notes that Godwin is now 100% healthy and faces a massive opportunity with Mike Evans gone.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveValue7:03
Olave is a consensus top 14 wide receiver and a strong target in round three. While his target volume may decrease compared to last year's 9.1 targets per game with Tyler Shuck, he remains a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside, especially if drafted as a second wide receiver.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveUsage36:58
Heath Cummings highlights Christian Watson's late-season efficiency, noting a 23.5% target share and 2.78 yards per route run from weeks 11-18. Cummings projects him for 104 targets, which would be the highest for a Packers receiver since Davante Adams.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveProjection28:56
Dave Richard ranks DJ Moore as a top-24 receiver, noting that the Bills are likely to lean into his talent. Richard sees potential for Moore to lead the team in targets, catches, and yards, though he remains concerned about touchdown upside.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveUsage7:09
Smith is a consensus top 14 wide receiver. Historically, when primary pass catchers like Dallas Goedert are out, Smith's production spikes; he averaged 17.1 PPR points per game in 17 games without Goedert or with Goedert leaving early, while A.J. Brown was active.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveBreakout23:37
Dave Richard is planting a flag on Egbuka as a breakout candidate. With Mike Evans gone, Egbuka is expected to be a primary target in a high-volume Tampa Bay passing attack, working across all three levels of the field.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeValue20:41
Heath Cummings avoids drafting Garrett Wilson in round four, noting that he ranks him about a point per game behind the tier of Zay Flowers, Nico Collins, Chris Olave, and Tee Higgins.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
NegativeInjury96:40
Dave Richard notes that Jalen McMillan is currently dealing with a knee injury without a clear timetable, making him a player to monitor on the waiver wire rather than a draft target.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveBreakout91:50
Heath Cummings identifies Jaden Reed as his favorite among the round 10 wide receivers, highlighting his unique rushing ability. Reed has recorded 34 carries over the last three seasons, with six of those going for 20-plus yards, outperforming notable running backs in that specific metric.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
NegativeValue32:11
Dave Richard views Waddle as a solid tier-mate with McConkey and Burden, ranking him as the top option of that specific trio, though Heath Cummings ranks him behind Burden.
Insight pageJordan Addison
PositiveProjection85:32
Heath Cummings views Jordan Addison as an amazing value in round 10, especially in full PPR formats. Despite a minor thumb injury, the expectation is that he will be ready for the season, and he stands to benefit if the Vikings' offense increases their passing volume.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeProjection44:07
Dave Richard and Heath Cummings view Jordan Tyson as a late-round target, with Cummings placing him at the 7/8 turn. Richard notes that while Tyson has the pedigree to be a team's WR2, he is concerned about his injury history dating back to college.
Insight pageNegativeProjection74:01
Dave Richard is skeptical of Jordan Tyson's immediate fantasy impact, noting concerns about his health history (hamstring issues, past ACL) and questioning if he can command enough targets to average 14 PPR points per game as a rookie in New Orleans. Richard views him as a boom-bust bench stash rather than a consistent starter.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveUsage87:03
Heath Cummings is high on Josh Downs, noting he is working as the Colts' number one wide receiver in training camp. Cummings is willing to reach for him before round 10, citing his strong target volume and red-zone usage (14 red-zone targets last year) as reasons for optimism.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveProjection22:23
Dave Richard projects Ladd McConkey as a top-20 wide receiver with top-12 upside, noting that he is the most qualified Charger to benefit from the team's focus on quick passing and YAC. While his rookie efficiency was high, Richard expects a slight regression in catch rate to 67% but anticipates increased volume, specifically needing 7+ targets per game to reach 15 PPR points.
Insight pagePositiveUsage30:45
McConkey is a strong target in full PPR formats. His sophomore struggles are attributed to Keenan Allen's presence, and with Allen gone, McConkey is expected to see increased volume, with a path to 15 PPR points per game if he hits seven-plus targets.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout24:54
Heath Cummings highlights Luther Burden as the clear WR1 for the Bears, noting that all reports from practice suggest he is the primary target. Cummings projects him for a 22% target share (126 targets), though he admits this might be optimistic. Burden's rookie yards per route run was historically elite, trailing only Odell Beckham Jr. over the last 20 years.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout32:27
Heath Cummings identifies Luther Burden as his favorite of the McConkey/Waddle/Burden group, noting he has the most upside. He is considered a strong option, particularly in full PPR scoring.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeValue7:09
Nabers is a round three target with significant upside but carries scary downside due to current Giants passing game issues in camp. Dave Richard ranks him first among the Olave/Smith/Nabers trio, banking on health and offensive improvement by late August.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveBreakout34:27
Heath Cummings is warming up to Marvin Harrison Jr. after observing him win consistently in practice, specifically in the X-receiver role down the sideline. Cummings notes that the Cardinals' offense appears to be modeled after the Rams and is focused on throwing deep, which boosts Harrison's outlook.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue41:39
Dave Richard favors Parker Washington in PPR formats, noting that he and Brian Thomas Jr. could lead the Jaguars' passing attack. Richard expects the Jaguars to throw the ball frequently this season.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
NegativeUsage23:04
Dave Richard notes that while the Chargers' offensive shift toward quick passing and YAC might benefit Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey is better suited for that role. Johnston's target per route run rate was 22.9% as a rookie, nearly identical to McConkey's 23.4%.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeProjection26:29
Heath Cummings projects Rome Odunze for a 22% target share (126 targets), equal to his projections for Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. Despite the equal projection, Cummings notes that Odunze has had more opportunity than his teammates but has not been as productive.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue95:20
Heath Cummings and Dave Richard agree that Stefan Diggs is a great value at his current ADP (around round nine, pick 98). They expect his draft position to rise as the season approaches.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveValue18:53
Higgins is a reliable, easy-to-project asset who typically delivers at least 15 PPR points per game when healthy alongside Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. Heath Cummings prefers him over most of the round four group and even some round three options.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveValue28:28
Dave Richard is comfortable drafting Terry McLaurin as a top-20 wide receiver and a solid WR2 for fantasy teams. Despite the addition of Stephon Diggs in Washington, Richard believes it is bad news for other receivers but not for McLaurin.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!
0:04Can you believe this? He's had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
0:09Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
0:12He's just gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
0:17Wide Receiver Preview Part 2. Here we go. It starts with a guy who was a top 7 wide receiver per game
0:25last year and overall, a guy who had a breakout season and a bit of unexpected circumstances.
0:30Can he do it again? Who is that guy?
0:33I'll tell you in a moment. Welcome to the show.
0:37It is Friday, August 7th. I'm Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings.
0:41Later today, we have a mailbag with John Daigle of Establish the Run.
0:46And we're actually gonna be talking to a former St.
0:49Jude patient. We're gonna be pumping up the FFT Open, so you gotta listen to that.
0:54And we'll do the news and notes and all that stuff in the mailbag.
0:59Anyway, good morning, Heath. Also, between now and then, we have FFT Dynasty.
1:03And I will have Dan Schneier and Jacob Gibbs on FFT Dynasty to talk about the Beyond the Box Score Dynasty League.
1:11Chances to play in a league with me, Dan, Jacob.
1:14I'm gonna figure out who's gonna be the commissioner of that league, because I'm afraid it has to be me.
1:21I will do it, Heath. No! Thank you. Thank you.
1:24No, you do a fantastic job at running Dynasty Leagues.
1:27Never any problems with any of your leagues. Thanks.
1:30We have done it. Remember earlier this week when we picked a league's draft order live on FFT?
1:36Yeah, Dave, we remember. Yeah. Now you can buy such an item in the draft-a-thon store.
1:42And now it's even easier to get to the draft-a-thon store, by the way.
1:46So if you want to play in a league with a fantasy expert, the FFT open.
1:52If you want us to pick your league's draft order, you can find that.
1:56Just Google FFT Donate 2026 and it'll come right up.
2:00Just make sure it's a Tiltify link that you're clicking on to place your donation.
2:05But we can pick your league's order on this show.
2:08We can do a private video. Whatever you want.
2:11But both are available on the draft-a-thon store. Okay.
2:14Page. Whatever. More on the draft-a-thon during our mailbag show, which will air on Saturday, but you can see it on YouTube on Friday.
2:22Let's get into wide receivers now. Yesterday we did part one, which was kind of an overview of the position.
2:29One thing we're not seeing is as many hits late in drafts.
2:33Thomas, I don't know if you have that graphic, but if we want to show where the wide receivers who have been
2:40drafted, where the wide receivers who have averaged 15 or more PPR fantasy points per game have been drafted year over year.
2:47What you're going to see is the last two years, not as many hits.
2:52In fact, in the last two years, there's only been one wide receiver drafted after round seven that has averaged 15 or more PPR fantasy points per game.
3:01I remember last year we only had 11 wide receivers who did it.
3:06Usually we're in the 16 to 18 range. So last year was just a bad year, but reliably every single year, listen to this.
3:14Every single year you get at least one guy in round six who averages 15 or more PPR fantasy points per game.
3:21And again, that's like a top 18 finish every year.
3:24You usually get a guy in round seven as well.
3:28The last two years, what we haven't had is the guys after round six and seven.
3:33Only one guy in the last two years who's done it.
3:37Hopefully that changes. But my point is your stud receivers, you can get them all the way through round six and seven.
3:44Obviously not everyone is going to do that in round six and seven, but it happens every year.
3:50At least one guy in round six, at least one guy in round seven.
3:55I think for the last five years round seven have averaged 15 or more PPR fantasy points per game.
4:01So we're not quite there yet. We're in round three.
4:04If you want to hear the wide receivers in rounds two, that'd be the top 11 of Chase, Lamb, Jeff, Chase.
4:11Oh, this is last year's ADP. Sorry. Chase Puka.
4:14Puka. There you go. Amon Ross St. Brown, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Lamb, Jefferson, London, AJ Brown, George Pickens, Rasheed Rice, and Nico Collins.
4:23That was at the end of part one. We're going to start with Chris Olave in round three.
4:29Malik Neighbors in round three. Devante Smith in round three.
4:32Who is your favorite? How would you rank those three, Heath?
4:36Olave, Neighbors, and Devante Smith. As of right now, I would rank them Olave, Devante, and Neighbors.
4:41But there are a lot of things that could change, especially I think right now for Devante and Neighbors.
4:48Devante is a little bit banged up. Neighbors trying to show that he is 100% healthy.
4:53So this order could change. But as of right now, it's Olave, Devante, Neighbors.
4:58Dave? I've got Neighbors first. Leaning into him being fine for the start of the season.
5:03Hoping that the Giants passing issues that have been going on in camp so far can resolve themselves.
5:09This is the time for those issues to come up now, early August.
5:13And by late August, hopefully it's a different situation.
5:16We know what Jackson Dart is capable of doing.
5:19I'm hoping that they work out their kinks over the next couple of weeks.
5:24And then Neighbors participates or continues to participate and looks good.
5:28I've got Olave next, Devante Smith after that. But they're all top 16 receivers for me.
5:33They all belong roughly top 30 in fantasy drafts.
5:36I've got Smith maybe a smidge outside of the top 30.
5:40But this is where we're going for wide receivers who have that screaming upside.
5:44The chance to have 17 plus PPR points per game to finish as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver.
5:51And the downside is pretty scary, especially for Neighbors.
5:54But we're willing to take that chance in round three because of the upside and the pathways to high target volume, big
6:01plays, quality offenses, at least in the case of New Orleans and Philadelphia.
6:05Well, yesterday we talked about CeeDee Lamb having a projection around 17 and a half-ish fantasy points somewhere around there.
6:12Are you saying that you think Olave, Neighbors, and Devante Smith could average 17 PPR points per game?
6:18Yes, but I don't think they're as safe for that as CeeDee Lamb because the things that I talked about, high target
6:25volume, we know Lamb is going to get that.
6:28He's not going to sit there and get six targets per game.
6:32We could expect him to get eight targets per game, maybe even nine.
6:37And it feels like 17 is almost like a safe expectation for CeeDee Lamb.
6:41Whereas these other guys, there's more downside and questions about their offense.
6:45No questions about Lamb's offense. That's a juggernaut right now.
6:49Heath, I think you just look at Devante Smith and every time he's had one of the primary pass catchers off the
6:56field, you know, it's over the last four seasons, it is actually 17 games without Dallas Goddard or with Goddard leaving early with an injury, but with A.J.
7:05Brown playing. And in those 17 games, he's averaged 17.1 PPR fantasy points per game.
7:10He's been good enough to be a top 12 receiver per game in every format, top six based on last year's scoring.
7:18And that's with Goddard out and Brown playing in three games over the last two years without A.J.
7:24Brown, a 45% target share, a 35% target share, a 28% target share.
7:28How is Devante Smith not going to be great?
7:31I'm very excited. I know Jamie is as well.
7:34He's not here today, but how do you feel about Devante Smith?
7:38No, I'm very excited. I think like the first caveat you have to put on there is that Makai Lemon was not on the team.
7:46Yeah. And so that changes things just a little bit.
7:50And the second thing is that we do have a new offensive coordinator from we have a new offensive coordinator every year.
7:57So you can just say that every single every season in Philadelphia.
8:01And so things could look a little bit different there.
8:04But no, I listen, I nobody's arguing against Devante Smith.
8:08That's why we're taking him in round three. And that's why he's a consensus top 14 wide receiver.
8:14All right. So let's get a word in on Chris Olave.
8:17It's kind of took me until this morning to notice this split.
8:21Chris Olave. We know, you know, the Shuck splits.
8:24He was unbelievable with Tyler Shuck. He was on pace for a 1400 yards and 13 touchdowns and was the number four wide receiver per game with Shuck.
8:34However, he had a 26% target share. That was eight games, by the way, with Shuck.
8:3926% target share when Devon Vele played. And in two games without Vele, it was a 36.5% target share.
8:45That was Vele. Now they have Jordan Tyson. They still have Vele.
8:49Dave, how do you feel about Chris Olave? Give me 30 seconds.
8:53We'll move on to the next round. I don't think the targets are going to be the same this year as they were last year.
9:02I don't know how bad the drop off will be.
9:05It could be a full target per game. But last year with Shuck, eight games, 9.1 targets per game.
9:11And that was on a high A.2. And he still came through for almost 19 PPR points per game.
9:18I don't think that's attainable. I think that that's out the window.
9:22And you've got to be a little bit worried about Tyson kicking it up into high gear at some point in the middle of the season.
9:30Hopefully he stays healthy enough to do that. And there's still other peripheral players.
9:35You mentioned Vele, Juwan Johnson. We don't know how much the running backs will contribute.
9:40Actually, Heath knows how much the running backs will contribute in the passing game.
9:45It won't be that much. Olave, when he plays, he's going to be the number one guy.
9:50I feel best about him as one of those borderline low-end number one, high-end number two wide receivers.
9:56Tickle to death to get him as my number two wide receiver.
10:00Would I be okay with him as my number one wide receiver?
10:04Yeah, especially if it's round three and especially if I really struck it big on my first two picks.
10:11Okay. Let's move on. So we are now 15 wide receivers in.
10:15Well, that's 14 wide receivers with those three. So we'll get to wide receiver 15.
10:20Heath, you want to say something? No, just the chat's very disappointed in what terrible alumni you guys are.
10:26That you're not mentioning Carson Beck. Carson Beck, who I think underthrew both of his deep balls, in my opinion.
10:33We'll talk about him on the mailbag show. Okay.
10:36So now let's get to wide receiver 15 and get into round four.
10:40And there are some guys that we're going to just love in this round.
10:45And that is Zay Flowers, Emeka Abuka. I mean, first of all, that's a guy Heath loves in Zay Flowers, a guy
10:52Dave loves in Emeka Abuka, guys that we all like at least.
10:56And then after that, we have Teddero McMillan, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkie, Luther Burden.
11:01And then there's Jalen Waddell, Devontae Adams. I mean, we're still in this mix of part of the top 25 or 26
11:09guys, but we want at least two of them.
11:12And not all these guys are going to be good.
11:15Remember last two years, wide receivers 13 through 18, eight of the 12 have been horrible busts.
11:21But previously, this was a pretty solid range of receivers.
11:24So Heath, how do you view, we can break it up, Flowers, Abuka, McMillan, Wilson.
11:29Flowers, Abuka, McMillan, and Garrett Wilson, the first four of this group.
11:33You know, it's funny because the guy you left out, Tee Higgins, who's going one pick after Garrett Wilson, I would take
11:40over everybody in that group except for Zay Flowers.
11:43And I would take over everyone in the prior group except for Chris Alave.
11:48So this is why I don't draft a lot of Devontae Smith, I guess, because Tee Higgins is always available when Devontae Smith is taken.
11:56Okay, good to know. So you're a Higgins guy.
11:59I think we all, that's the thing about Higgins is we pretty much know what to expect.
12:05It's probably going to be at least 15 PPR fantasy points per game when he and Chase and Burrow are on the field.
12:13If he has a target per outrun rate like he did two years ago, that's when he was, I think, the number
12:20five receiver per game or something like that. But that's probably not going to happen.
12:25But Higgins is an easy one to project, I think, as long as he and Burrow stay healthy, which of course has been a problem.
12:33Any thoughts on, I know you love Flowers. Do you avoid Abuka, McMillan, or Garrett Wilson in this range, early round four?
12:41If there was an avoid for me, it would be Garrett Wilson.
12:45So I have this, not quite a mega tier, but Flowers, Nico, Olave, Higgins, Devontae, Teterroa, neighbors are all within a point per game for me.
12:53And Luther Burden and Abuka are like two points below that cutoff.
12:58So they're basically in the same group. Garrett Wilson's about a point per game behind that tier for me.
13:04So I pretty much never draft Garrett Wilson. Maybe he should go like half a round later, but it's just all these
13:11other guys are jam-packed in there with him. And I pretty much always draft wide receivers in this range.
13:18Okay. Yeah, that's another thing we could look at is there aren't a lot of running back.
13:23In this range, the running backs like Brees Hall and Javante Williams and Travis Achan are mostly off the board.
13:30You'd see Achan there. The next guy up is Bucky Irving and Quinchon Judkins.
13:35All right, Dave, your thoughts on this group of Flowers, Abuka, McMillan, Garrett Wilson, and Higgins, I guess.
13:41Hey, right. So throw in as many wide receivers as you want.
13:45And if you're listening and you're hearing these names and you're going, cool, I dig most of these guys, then maybe you
13:52start earmarking round four as the spot to get your wide receiver two.
13:56And if that's the case, then what are you doing with your first three picks?
14:01Well, you might be able to get two running backs.
14:05You can get one running back, one wide receiver, one tight end, something like that.
14:10But the bottom line is that there will be a wide receiver in round four that you will feel good about drafting.
14:17But what I feel best about is Abuka. I've been outspoken on it.
14:21I'm going to stick to this flag plant until something significantly changes.
14:25We know that Jalen McMillan left practice yesterday. It's giving an opportunity for Ted Hurst to play.
14:31But really what it's going to do is it's going to funnel more targets to Abuka, to Chris Godwin.
14:37Those two guys are going to be the top target getters in Tampa Bay.
14:42This offense is going to throw a lot. Abuka proved last year when he was healthy that he's awesome.
14:48And he did that with Mike Evans on the field at times.
14:52Now Evans is gone. Someone's got to step up and be the red zone threat.
14:57I think it's going to be Abuka. And he's also going to line up across the formation.
15:03He's going to work all three levels. All the things that we look for in a wide receiver that could break out, I think Abuka's got it.
15:12And so I'm happy to take him at the head of the class.
15:16I will say this. If you strongly prefer, like Dave said, earmark you a round four pick for this guy.
15:23If you strongly prefer one or two of these guys, don't count on them making it to round four.
15:29In a large percentage of drafts, a couple of these guys will be gone before you get to pick 36.
15:36Right. But that's assuming that you only like a few of these guys.
15:40But if you hear all the names and maybe even some of the names on the next tier and you go, oh, cool.
15:48I'd be good with any of them. Then I think you can wait till round four.
15:53Yeah, I think this is so interesting, right? Because this actually gives me wide receivers drafted in round one are the most likely to be the elite ones.
16:03Same with round two. And it's, you know, this is not this was not a good range last two years.
16:09Basically, he did have JSN come out of here.
16:12He had Devante Adams with a lot of busts.
16:15But I look at this list and I go, man, I'd be happy to take two of these guys.
16:22I'd be happy to start running back, running back Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins or a Buka, Tee Higgins or a Buka, Lad McConkie or something like that.
16:31And, you know, there are enough guys in this range.
16:34If I felt confident I can get them with my third and fourth picks and ADP is telling me that I would do it.
16:42And that's not even if somehow Devante Smith or Malik Neighbors or Chris Olave happened to fall to me in the third round or something like that.
16:51But I don't know. It does. Heath, I think it does seem stronger here than at running back.
16:57To me, that's the point you were making, right?
17:00Yes. I mean, if you're just looking at the graphic, I put on my do not draft list, both Travis A.
17:07Chan and Bucky Irving. I like Quinch on Judkins in that range.
17:11But, you know, I agree that I really like taking two wide receivers in round three and round four.
17:17If you're an insane person, it is possible to start your draft with a Munra St.
17:23Brown, Rashi Rice, Zay Flowers or one of the guys going behind him and Luther Burden.
17:28And in a three wide receiver league, just maybe have three top 12 wide receivers and four top 20 wide receivers.
17:35And then draft a running back room that has DeAndre Swift, Rico Dattle, J.K.
17:40Dobbins, Bill and Zach Charbonnet. And just piece together your running backs.
17:44Like that, that's something you can do. Sorry about that.
17:47Let's take a break. By the way, if you're watching on YouTube, we'd really appreciate it if you'd subscribe to the channel
17:54and hit the like button and leave some comments.
17:57But certainly hit that like button. I don't I barely ever ask people to do that, but it will help our video grow.
18:05So if you're here, if you're watching later, please hit that like button.
18:09We're going to be right back with the next group.
18:13I mean, does do Lad McConkie and Luther Burden belong in the group with Zay Flowers and Abuka and McMillan and Garrett Wilson and T.
18:21Higgins? And then what about the older guys, the Adams and the Moores and the McLaurans and the Evans of the world?
18:28We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. All right.
18:32And even looking, by the way, on NFC average draft position and the more experienced, high stakes, super cool drafters.
18:38A lot of these guys are going in round four.
18:42Lad McConkie, though, is is higher there than he is here.
18:45Lad McConkie is wide receiver 20 here being fantasy pros in fantasy pros and wide receiver 17 at the three four turn on NFC.
18:53So we just got done talking about Zay Flowers, who Heath talked about, I think, yesterday.
18:59Yeah, whatever. A lot. Abuka, McMillan, Garrett Wilson, T.
19:02Higgins. Now we've got McConkie, Luther Burden, and Jalen Waddell.
19:05Wide receivers 20, 21, and 22. After that, we've got older guys like Adams and McLaurin, DJ Moore, Mike Evans, also Jamison Williams will be in there.
19:14We'll get to him. Dave, if we look at these three, McConkie, Burden, and Waddell, they're at the four or five turn, basically, right around 48th overall.
19:23Do they belong in that same tier with the guys ahead of them?
19:27Give me the names one more time. Yeah, no problem.
19:31Lad McConkie, Luther Burden, Jalen Waddell. I think Waddell does, and I think McConkie does.
19:36And I think Burden is damn close. Burden, I think you can make the case for Burden if it's full PPR.
19:43But I would rank it Waddell, McConkie, Burden. Heath, same question to you.
19:47Yeah, I was going to say the only one that I put in the same tier is Luther Burden.
19:53So that's why I was giggling when Dave said the other two do, and Burden almost does.
19:59I rank it Burden, then Waddell, then McConkie. I've got some guys in between them, so they aren't back-to-back-to-back for me.
20:06But Burden is my favorite of the group, and I think has the most upside.
20:11Do you want to hear the wide receivers who averaged more yards per game than Lad McConkie as a rookie since 2005?
20:18Oh, I was so ready, too. I thought you were going to say last year, and I was going to say Quentin Johnston.
20:26Odell Beckham, Puka Nakua, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Michael Thomas.
20:29They averaged more yards per game than Lad McConkie.
20:32After that, Malik Nabors, Julio Jones, Marcus Colston. I mean, every single player was a stud.
20:38For McConkie to have the year he had last year, it was so surprising.
20:42And I'm really hopeful for a bounce-back. We think that the offense is going to be much better with Mike McDaniel.
20:49And if you're going, he's not going to get that many targets, there were actually four wide receivers who finished top 12
20:57last year with 120 or fewer targets, which is a lot.
21:00Usually it's like one or two. There were four last year who did it, including Zay Flowers.
21:06But yeah, go ahead. I think he doesn't get talked about enough or the same way.
21:11But Lad McConkie's year two is every bit as mystifying to me.
21:15In fact, more so than Brian Thomas Jr., than Marvin Harrison Jr.
21:19It was an absolute disaster. And with Thomas, we blame it on his own injuries mostly, I think.
21:25And with Lad, I guess we blame it on the offensive line injuries.
21:30No, I blame it on Keenan Allen. You blame it on Keenan Allen.
21:34But it wasn't just that Keenan Allen took all of his targets.
21:38He went from 10.3 yards per target, which we knew wasn't sustainable, to 7.4, which is more like a tight end.
21:45Yeah. Yeah. Like the targets weren't really that much different.
21:49He went from 112 to 106. Yeah. Well. He was just bad with those targets.
21:54And the ADOT didn't change either. His target per route run rate went down, Heath.
21:59I don't know if that means anything to you, along with the team target share.
22:04But those two stats, the fact that there was a drop-off there, along with a huge drop-off in yards per route run,
22:11I pinned that on Keenan Allen being there. And Keenan Allen being a safety valve that Justin Herbert trusts.
22:17And now that Allen isn't going to be there, I think it goes right back to Lad McConkie.
22:23I'm excited about him, especially in full PPR. I'm a little nervous about him having a ton of yards and a ton of touchdowns.
22:31His end zone targets actually went up from year one to year two.
22:36And how did it end up with his touchdowns?
22:39He had one less. So that's going to be just a variable that we won't be able to look at and say,
22:46okay, he's going to get eight or plus touchdowns.
22:49If we knew that, he'd be ranked a lot higher.
22:52I think the volume will be a little bit better.
22:56We know that the pathway for any receiver, but especially McConkie, to get close to 15 PPR points is to get seven plus targets per game.
23:04I think he gets there. All the hype about Quentin Johnston, Trey Harris, these tight ends, they'll all be in the mix.
23:12But I think Lad's going to be the top target getter in this offense.
23:16And I don't think that's saying anything crazy. And that's why I'm okay with him as a top 20 wide receiver and
23:24another guy, again, who has the potential to finish top 12th.
23:27I just really think the idea that Lad McConkie was clearly Justin Herbert's favorite target in his rookie year is not really the way that it went.
23:36He just had an insanely efficient season. But their target per route run, he wasn't that much different than Quentin Johnston.
23:43It was 23.4% to 22.9%. That's 24, right? 24, yeah.
23:47Yeah. That's the rookie year. It's just that he caught, what, 70% of the balls thrown his way?
23:5373% of the balls thrown his way as a rookie?
23:56And it was down to 63% last year. I would say we should probably expect about 67%.
24:02Okay. Yeah, I could understand why the projection wouldn't be great for McConkie.
24:06I feel like, not that it's bad. It's just not in this, you know, in this tier with some of the other guys ahead.
24:14Because you do wonder about the target share and all that stuff.
24:18And, you know, 60% slot guy. That's not my favorite profile.
24:22I'm hoping that this obsession with getting the ball out quickly and getting more yak in the offense, which is everything that we keep hearing about the Chargers.
24:31And they say it's going to benefit Quentin Johnson, and it might.
24:35But I believe wholeheartedly that Lad McConkie is the most qualified to take advantage of that style of offense.
24:41He is much better at getting open in, you know, short area than Quentin Johnson.
24:46He's really damn good at that. But, all right.
24:49Let me ask you real quick. Just give me your thoughts on Luther Burden.
24:54Because this is the apple of so many people's eye right now.
24:58The hot name. And, you know, Lad McConkie and Brian Thomas Jr.
25:02had an amazing target per out run rate as rookies.
25:05I think they were both top 12 in the last, like, 20 years.
25:10Luther Burden's number two. Only Odell Beckham was better yards per out run than Luther Burden in the last 20 years as a rookie.
25:18However, nobody on that list had nearly as few targets as Luther Burden.
25:22So, Heath, you think it's going to be a big year for him?
25:26Yeah. I was glad. I was hoping, like, right after you gave the rookie wide receivers who had more yards per game
25:34than Lad McConkie, you would give the rookie wide receivers who had more yards per out run than Luther Burden.
25:40And, yeah, he didn't. He was not a full-time player for a good part of the season.
25:46Ben Johnson kind of brought him along slowly. But all Ben Johnson has done, like, it's almost as if he has somehow
25:53invested in Luther Burden's ADP and he is trying to drive it up.
25:58Because all he is, like, he literally said, I'm buying stock in Luther Burden.
26:02Right. Everybody who has been at Bears practice has talked about how awesome Luther Burden is.
26:08All of the little tea leaves that we have suggest that Luther Burden is the wide receiver one.
26:14Maybe Colson Loveland's ahead of him. But Luther Burden's the wide receiver one on this team.
26:19Five targets to replace from last year's team. That's going to be mostly Luther Burden and Roma Dunze.
26:25And I said this on a show a couple weeks ago.
26:29But people think that I kind of hate Roma Dunze because of how far apart I have Loveland, Burden, and Dunze.
26:36I still have all three of these guys projected for the same target share.
26:4022% target share. 126 targets. That's probably being too kind to Luther Burden.
26:45But the big thing is Loveland and Burden. I mean, I'm sorry, I was probably being too kind to a Dunze.
26:52The big thing is Loveland and Burden have been so incredible when they've had the opportunity.
26:57And Odunze has had a fair amount of opportunity and hasn't.
27:01Adam, you want the target per route run stat for Burden that you'll like, but we kind of have to flesh out what it means?
27:09Well, honestly, I do. But I think we should save that for a different show because we have like 30 more wide receivers I'd like to get to.
27:18Let's go to our next group, Dave, because it's really important to talk about the older guys here.
27:24These are the younger guys. Waddle's in his prime, whatever.
27:28But then we've got Devontae Adams and Terry McLaurin and DJ Moore and Jamison Williams, who's not old.
27:34He's not an older guy. Mike Evans. So four of the next five, I believe Evans is the next guy in that
27:41group, four of the next five are, you know, they have that in common.
27:46Again, it's Devontae Adams, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, Jamison Williams, Mike Evans.
27:50So, Dave, do you see a teardrop from the kind of young, exciting guys to Adams, McLaurin, Moore, Jamo, and Evans?
27:57No, I would include the M's, the M&M's in the previous tier.
28:01And that's McLaurin and DJ Moore, at least in full PPR.
28:04I gather older. Yeah, no one likes drafting the older receivers.
28:08But if they're going to produce good value on draft day and we know what they're capable of doing is being the
28:15number one options in each of their respective offenses.
28:18With quarterbacks who are pretty good at getting their options to football, I would like to buy in.
28:24And I'm especially intrigued by Washington. They're really changing their offense around.
28:28Certainly, we've been reading about more under center work.
28:31We've been reading about that for a lot of teams.
28:35But Washington seems to be doing that. I know they just added Stephon Diggs.
28:39I think that's bad news for all the other receivers in Washington.
28:43Not so much for Terry McLaurin. I'm good with McLaurin as a top 20 wide receiver.
28:49I'm okay with him being a number two wide out on my fantasy team.
28:53And all offseason long, I was really nervous about DJ Moore.
28:57Part of it was because I thought Buffalo would add another player.
29:01Part of it was because I just got committed to the idea that Buffalo is just going to keep running the football.
29:08What we've seen from DJ Moore is that who he was last year doesn't seem to be who he really is as far as talent goes.
29:17And I think the Bills are going to lean into that.
29:21And so DJ Moore is a top 24 receiver for me.
29:24I think full PPR, half PPR, that makes a difference.
29:28And I think that there is a chance for him to have a runaway lead in targets, catches, and yards in Buffalo.
29:35The touchdowns are going to be what slows me down with him.
29:39Just like it would slow me down with Burden, with Zay Flowers, a bunch of other wide receivers that we'll get to or have already gotten to.
29:48I think that what Dave said about DJ Moore has been true for his entire career.
29:53Except last year. No, every year, the player that he was the year before is not who he really is.
30:00No one has any idea who DJ Moore really is.
30:03He's kind of the Baker Mayfield of wide receivers.
30:06I think when you look at DJ Moore, I think he's had two top 20 seasons per game.
30:13Something like that. He has three top 20 seasons, one top 12 season.
30:17And he's 29 years old. When you look at Terry McLaurin, he's had one season better than I think 20th per game.
30:24And it was 16th per game in full PPR, 12th in non-PPR.
30:28And that was two years ago. So these are guys that are 29.
30:33And is McLaurin going to be 31 this year?
30:36Yeah. And they really haven't. Yeah, he'll be 31 in September.
30:39They haven't had special careers. But they've had moments.
30:42Right. Whereas Adams and Evans obviously blow them away in terms of resume.
30:47Jamison Williams is probably, I'm guessing, not the guy we're going to gravitate toward in this range.
30:52Just after it, right? I have McLaurin. These are round five guys, right?
30:57Yeah. By ADP. So I have, like, I don't love any of these guys.
31:01I don't hate most of these guys. I have McLaurin, Moore, Adams, and J-Mo all in round five in that order.
31:08McLaurin, DJ Moore, Adams, Jamison Williams, but not Mike Evans.
31:12We know you don't like Evans as much. Right.
31:15Dave, do you feel, how many of them would you take in round five?
31:19Of the receivers that you named? Yeah. Definitely McLaurin, definitely Moore.
31:23I'm okay with Devontae Adams in round five. That's it.
31:26Not Evans. Not Evans, not J-Mo. Okay. It's funny because I think I, as a group, I love this group.
31:33Look, we don't have, if you want a safe pick in round five, take Drake May or Joe Burrow or something like that, right?
31:41Or probably DeAndre Swift. Yeah. Yeah. DeAndre Swift. I mean, he's going as RB24.
31:46It's pretty hard to see Swift being worse than that.
31:49But look, if you want a wide receiver in this range, they're all going to be pretty risky.
31:55I think it's a pretty good group overall. I don't know how you guys feel.
32:00Now, I remember saying that last year about this group and it was not great, the round five guys.
32:06Like I remember being, oh, Xavier Worthy. Yeah. I like Xavier Worthy here, but George Pickens was in this range.
32:13In fact, you know what? Instead of me guessing, why don't we look at it?
32:18Was he like the only one that was in this range?
32:22That was good. Who ended up being really good?
32:25Yeah. Yeah. Bo McMillan. He was fine. Jameson Williams ended up being good.
32:29And then where was Pickens? Pickens was in round six, actually.
32:33I think the problem with this group is not them.
32:36I think they're all fine. Like I said, they're all fine.
32:40I don't love them. I don't hate them. The problem is that when you turn the page to round six and you
32:47see Roma Dunze and Marvin Harrison and Christian Watson and these younger guys who may have slightly lower projections, but we certainly
32:54look at them as having more upside. If things go right, I probably gravitate more towards those guys.
33:00That's a great topic of conversation. I mean, because after this older group and the older group has the one young guy,
33:08Jameson Williams, just so nobody gets confused. After this group is Roma Dunze.
33:12We're in around six. Roma Dunze, Carnell Tate, Christian Watson, Marvin Harrison Jr.
33:16But stop there. Right. So that's four guys. Oh, Dunze, Tate, Watson, Harrison.
33:21Heath's already sort of given his preference for the younger guys at a better value, at least than the guys ahead.
33:28Not every not the youngest. That's a little early for me for Tate.
33:32OK, OK. But Watson, oh, Dunze and Marvin Harrison Jr.
33:35Do you like them better or just like waiting a round?
33:39Yeah, I have them as almost indistinguishable. Lower floor, higher ceiling.
33:43If it's my wide, I think if it's my wide receiver two, I'm probably just taking one of the guys in round
33:50five to give me a little security. If it's my wide receiver three, I love the boom bust aspect of the round six guys.
33:58I feel mostly the same exact way. If one of these guys ended up being my wide receiver two, I would almost
34:05be compelled to try and get another receiver in the same tier as soon as possible.
34:11And that way, at least I have options. Either I'm playing the matchups or I'm hoping that one of the two at
34:18some point by Halloween reveals themselves to be a worthy starter week in and week out.
34:23I can't see myself drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. this year.
34:27You guys like him? I'm starting to kind of warm up to him.
34:31Yeah, like the biggest problem that I had with him before training camp started was I didn't think he'd be able to fulfill the X role.
34:40And so much of what I've seen as him winning in practice.
34:44And again, it's practice and it's against Arizona. And I don't think their defense is particularly good.
34:49But watching him win down the sideline outside of the numbers is encouraging to me.
34:54And if that's the role he's going to have and that's where he's going to work and he's starting to win there,
35:02then he's kind of off my bust list. And now on my, OK, if I can get him right around his ADP,
35:09I guess I'd be OK with it. That's where he's at now.
35:13That's Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver 31. And if you watched the Arizona Cardinals play in the free season, it's clear
35:20that's all they're going to do is just throw bombs.
35:24So it should work out great. Yeah. That offense looked a lot like the Rams offense from the last few years, by
35:31the way, which shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.
35:34And it should be encouraging to people who want to take chances on Cardinals pass catchers.
35:39Yeah. New coordinators could make a really big difference.
35:42Yes. So, hey, by the way, Heath, just to go back to Evans real quick, who's just before this group of younger
35:50guys, Oduinze, Tate, Christian Watson and Marvin Harrison Jr.
35:53Dave got this trivia question right. Who has led the San Francisco 49ers in end zone targets two straight years?
35:59End zone targets two straight years. Just take five seconds.
36:03Everybody take five seconds before answering. 49ers. Not on the team anymore.
36:07Oh, dude, you just totally gave it away. Yeah, I guess it was probably Juwan Jennings.
36:12It was. Yes. It was Juwan. I couldn't let it go that long, Dave.
36:17Yeah, you could. Yeah, it was Juwan Jennings. He was actually tied with Kittle two years ago and ahead of Kittle last
36:24year, even when Kittle was on the field. So for those.
36:28And so is that a Mike Evans stat? Yeah, it's a Mike Evans stat.
36:32Or is it a Dijon Stribling stat? It's for those of us who believe in Mike Evans.
36:38It's a Mike Evans stat. I believe Mike Evans will lead the 49ers in red zone targets when he's on the field.
36:45End zone targets. End zone targets. Yes. Those two.
36:48When he's on the field. Yeah, when he's on the field.
36:52Yeah. Which he's currently not. Christian Watson. I don't know if there's anything that might concern us.
36:58There's been a lot of buzz about Matthew Golden having a good camp.
37:02But Watson was finally, you know, I would say being treated close to a number one wide receiver toward the end of the year.
37:10His ADOT went down. Weeks 11 through 18, Watson had a 15.5 yard ADOT and a 23.5% target share.
37:16A 28.3% target per outrun rate. And 2.78 yards per outrun.
37:20It's phenomenal stuff for a guy that's so efficient.
37:23It was only at 104 target pace. But he is a lot like Jameson Williams, right?
37:28I mean, so efficient with the targets. Christian Watson?
37:31No. His game is a lot like Jameson Williams.
37:34Yeah. That's what I mean. Yeah. Fine. But his role, I think, can be a lot better.
37:40So, on any other team, I would say that's right.
37:43I was just checking to make sure this is accurate.
37:47Christian Watson, if he were to have 104 targets in a season, which is exactly what I have him projected for, would
37:54be the most by a Green Bay Packer since Devontae Adams.
37:58Yeah. It's true. Probably. There was the Lazard year, 2022.
38:01Yeah. It wasn't a crazy amount of targets. I have it right here.
38:05Why am I kidding? Yeah. I think he had exactly 100.
38:09Yeah. 6.7 per game. That's the second most in the Matt LaFleur tenure in Green Bay.
38:14Yeah. But 6.7 per game is 114 targets. These guys get injured all the time.
38:19And let me, okay, let's wrap up this group.
38:22Starting with, after the Bird and McConkie, I forget the other guy who was in there, Waddle.
38:28So we've got Adams. We've got Evans, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Jamison Williams, Romo Dunze, Carnell Tate, Christian Watson, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
38:36Give me the top three upside plays in this group of rounds five and six receivers.
38:41We're going all the way back into round five?
38:44Yeah. The old guys and the young guys. This group of young and old guys, who has the most upside?
38:51Top three. McLaurin. Moore. Man, if Evans stays healthy for 17 games, I suppose it would be him because of the touchdowns.
38:58McLaurin, Jamo, Marvin Harrison Jr. Oh, Jamo's in this group?
39:02Yeah. Jamo over Evans. I see. I think Watson is more upside than Jamo.
39:06Assuming everyone on both teams stays healthy. Okay. You know what?
39:10Yes. I mean, hasn't Jamo already had a top 12 season?
39:14Per game, no. Wow. I think that Devontae Adams, by the way, should have been your answer because he was just wide receiver nine last year.
39:22Yeah, you're right. Per game and overall. Okay. So you're kind of making a point here that there's a lot of guys
39:30that you can make a strong upside case for.
39:33Yes. Yes. And so add all these names to the names that you heard seven minutes ago and start taking inventory of
39:40how many of them you love as a number two wide receiver and how many you like as a number three wide
39:47receiver and how many you don't really want to have on your team because you're worried about targets or injuries or Sam Laporta or Michael Wilson.
39:56You know what I'm saying? Like other players getting in the way.
40:00I think it's an important step for fantasy managers to take before they draft.
40:05All right. So let's take another break here. And we're at wide receiver 32 when we come back in ADP, which is Cortland Sutton.
40:13And we're into round seven. And remember, we almost always have a round seven wide receiver average 15 or more points per game.
40:20We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Welcome back, everybody.
40:24All right. We're making our way through the draft board here and we're going to get to wide receiver 32, which is Cortland Sutton to begin round seven.
40:33Now, when we get to round nine, pick 97.
40:36I think I gave this stat maybe yesterday. I don't know.
40:40Whatever. But remember, there have been 36 wide receivers in the last six years, six per season drafted round nine or later
40:47and have finished either top 24 overall or per game.
40:51So these are important players. So starting with Cortland Sutton in round seven, we have Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., DK Metcalf and Alec Pierce and Parker Washington.
41:00Oh, good. Yeah. Somebody I love. Right. I was like, man, there's a few guys here that there's just no way I'm
41:07drafting Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Metcalf, Alec Pierce. And the reason I'm not drafting Pierce here is because he's still hurt and
41:14we have no timetable for his return. And then we have Parker Washington.
41:19So Dave, looking at that group here, who are the ones that you would gravitate toward?
41:24It does sound like Alec Pierce is going to be back sooner than later.
41:29So I wouldn't freak out just yet about his absence.
41:32I like the Jaguars receivers the best, and I think it comes down to format on which one I want more.
41:39If catches count, give me Washington. If they don't count, give me BTJ.
41:43I think there's a world where those two can lead the way in this Jacksonville offense.
41:49And I just, I continue to be encouraged by what we're hearing out of Jacksonville and learning out of Jacksonville as far as the passing game goes.
41:58And I'm starting to get a little bit concerned about the running game and how that might be a little messy, not
42:05just in terms of who's playing what role, but how effective they'll end up being.
42:10So could there be, could it, could it be that Jacksonville ends up being one of those teams that just throws a lot this season?
42:18And I think the answer to that question is yeah.
42:22And I'm, I'm ready to start investing in that passing game even more.
42:26Heath, same question to you. Pick the guys that you would take in this range, Sutton, BTJ, Metcalf, Alec Pierce, and Parker Washington.
42:34Yeah, I am fine with DK Metcalf here. I it's, I don't think anybody's excited about drafting DK Metcalf, but I'm fine with it.
42:42I am good with Brian Thomas Jr. Here. I think you could make the argument that he should be in the Harrison Watson grouping.
42:50And Parker Washington fits well in round seven as well.
42:53What we don't want from Brian Thomas Jr. Is a super high a dot.
42:58There's been a lot of talk about him. I mean, I feel like they always talk about him as a downfield threat.
43:05That's what he was in the last five or six games last year when Myers and Washington and Thomas, they were all there mostly.
43:13But it would, it feels like it would be the most obvious thing in the world if he were great again.
43:20And we were just like, Oh, of course he was obviously super hurt his second season.
43:25So I know a lot of us, we're going to have more than 10 teams, some approaching 20 teams.
43:32I think we're all going to want to have a little bit of Brian Thomas.
43:37Yes. All right. Moving on to the next round.
43:40And tell me when you think we're, we're kind of hitting like a new tier of not as much upside.
43:46Cause you could see Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr.
43:50Having big seasons. Alec Pierce based on being basically the most efficient wide receiver in the NFL the last two years.
43:57It's not an exaggeration. Um, not to mention an uptick in targets.
44:01Exactly. But are we running out of those types of players as we get to about round eight?
44:07Now, uh, Jordan Tyson might wide receiver 37 and ADP Jordan Tyson, Michael Wilson, Wanda Robinson.
44:12Those are the guys in round eight. We can keep going into round nine, but Jordan Tyson, Michael Wilson, Wanda Robinson, Dave,
44:19how do you feel about those three? Don't love them.
44:23I think round round eight is fine for Wilson and Wanda, but I haven't heard you say Chris Godwin's name, Josh Down's name, Jordan Addison's name.
44:31And I think I'd rather have all three of those guys than Wilson and Wanda.
44:36What about Tyson? I like Tyson. Tyson. I've got even around behind this.
44:41Heath. Tyson. I have at the very end of, or right, right at the seven, eight turn.
44:46So I think this is right, right where he belongs.
44:50Michael Wilson is the end of round nine for me.
44:53And I've already told you, I'm not drafting Wanda Robinson.
44:56Isn't Tyson, Dave, like the kind of guy that would shock, it would surprise us and have a really great year.
45:03I mean, you got the pedigree. He's going to should be the number two guy on his team.
45:09They probably will have a bad defense. You know what I mean?
45:13I'm worried about him staying healthy because he had that problem in college and it goes beyond the ACL injury he had four years ago.
45:22Like you almost forgive him for that because it was just such a freak injury and he had a full year to
45:29recover from it, but it's everything else. It's the fact that he's already strained his hamstring once during the lead up to the draft.
45:37And then again, I'm not sure if it was again, or if he was still dealing with it right when training camp
45:44opened, there's no denying this guy's talent. But I'd be surprised if he's the top target getter in this offense, I'd be
45:52surprised if he came close to averaging 14 PPR points per game.
45:56I think if you draft him with the idea of him as a boom bust by week replacement, number four receiver, something along those lines.
46:04Sure. But I look at a lot of other wide receivers that I just think have a chance to be more consistent than Tyson.
46:12And two of them are at least in full PPR are Wilson and especially Wandale.
46:17And so I, they're not as sexy as Tyson, but I think there'll be a little bit more available and more consistent.
46:24I think it's interesting because we didn't like when we talked about the concerns with Christian Watson, we just talked about how
46:32many times the Packers have historically thrown to their wide receivers.
46:35I would not say that Jordan Tyson's more likely to get hurt than Christian Watson is.
46:41Um, I wouldn't say that he's more likely to get hurt than Mike Evans is.
46:46I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I'm not sure. I would say he's more likely to get hurt than Devante Adams is also fair,
46:53but those guys should be in line. The first two you named are going to be the number one receivers on their teams.
47:01And the third guy is going to get targets like he's a number one wide receiver.
47:06And I don't know if Tyson can fill that role this soon in new Orleans.
47:11I, I do think that I'd like to do this research, but I think it's possible that you get just as many
47:18targets out of the number two wide receiver when he has a good one in Kellen Moore's offense that you do the
47:26number one wide receiver in Matt LaFleur's offense. Let's see if I can figure that out.
47:31Yeah. Well, look, I mean, maybe the answer is, do you want upside or do you want safety?
47:37Are you starting three wide receivers? And this guy is going to be in your lineup most weeks, or are you starting two wide receivers?
47:46And this guy, if he hits, he's, he's, then he's going to be in your lineup.
47:51But if you just need to wait it out till he gets his feet, gets his feet wet.
47:57And, you know, you can afford a month on your bench with Tyson.
48:01Maybe that determines it, but obviously he's not safe, but there's a lot of reason to like him.
48:07Heath, let's move on to the next round, which has some guys that Dave mentioned.
48:12He likes Chris God when he likes Josh Downs, but we have Michael Pittman.
48:17We have Makai Lemon. We have Chris Godwin, Jacoby Myers.
48:20Man, round 10 is awesome. Like we are not even into Josh Downs and Quentin Johnston yet, but wide receivers 40 through 43 are in round nine.
48:29They are Pittman, Lemon, Godwin, and Myers. Heath? Yeah.
48:32Godwin, Lemon, and Myers are like, okay. Godwin and Lemon I have a round earlier than this.
48:38Myers I have in this round. John Pittman I have a round after this.
48:43Who's the first one you said? Godwin is earlier?
48:46Godwin and Lemon are both in round eight for me.
48:49Yeah. I do have Jacoby Myers in round nine, though nobody ever really wants to click him.
48:55And Michael Pittman I have in round 10 because I never click him.
48:59Chris Godwin, you know, Jamie said last week that Pete Prisco was at Bucs camp and said Chris Godwin's 100%.
49:06And if you've been following my thoughts on Chris Godwin, it's been a bit of a roller coaster.
49:12He was my guy. I wanted to draft a lot of him.
49:16Then I watched some of his tape from last year.
49:19And I mean, I'm not even feeling like it's a risky opinion.
49:23He looked really slow and just did not seem recovered from the broken, I think it was ankle, maybe leg, from two years ago.
49:31But if he's back to being healthy in 2004, in 2024, Chris Godwin was the number three wide receiver per game.
49:38And now Mike Evans is gone. Well, Mike Evans is gone, too, though.
49:42So he's being drafted as wide receiver 42. So I am back in on Chris Godwin because I think it's worth the risk.
49:50I am OK with him being a bust if I take him in round nine or something like that.
49:56It is worth the risk. And there's such an opportunity there.
50:00Dave, I've got Heath's numbers, by the way. Oh, OK.
50:03Oh, his phone number? These are the target averages for the number two wide receiver in Kellen Moore's offenses each of the last five years.
50:12Last year, 7.3 for Rashid Shaheed before they traded him.
50:15Wow. The year before that, 6.2. That was Devontae Smith.
50:186.1, 5.2. And then you go back to 2021, Amari Cooper had 7.1 targets per game.
50:24That sounds a lot like Matt Malfour's number one wide receiver.
50:27Yeah. I mean, you definitely make the point that there is some statistical comparison and obviously some injury comparison between Watson and Tyson.
50:35If we really land on that being a thing, then it just makes me not want to take Christian Watson.
50:42Yeah. Yeah. And that 7 target number is so huge.
50:45I don't know if I can find the stat, but basically every wide receiver around 7 or later, that ends up being good.
50:53Like 90% of them average 7 or more targets per game.
50:56Of course. So, well, you say of course, but we don't always look at these guys as, oh, they could do it.
51:04So, in retrospect, we certainly should have been hammering Chris Olave's name last year.
51:08Right? Because he was the one guy who came out of it.
51:12So, look at this team and look at this list and go, who could average 7 targets per game?
51:19Those aren't the only guys you should draft. But if you find one who can, who you think will get to 119
51:26targets in a full season or 7 per game, that is a guy you should be looking at here.
51:32Dave, let's go to round 10. Quentin Johnston is pick 107.
51:36He is wide receiver 44. Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, Jaden Reed.
51:40This is a nice round here with Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, and Jaden Reed.
51:45Downs and Addison. Sign me up. Amazing value for them, especially in full PPR.
51:50The under-the-radar story in Minnesota is that Addison and Kyler have been on the same page since working together in the offseason.
51:57And right now, Addison's dealing with a thumb injury that's sidelining him for a few days.
52:02They don't think it's serious. They think he'll be ready to go.
52:06If it ends up coming to pass that this Vikings offense with Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones as their primary running backs,
52:14if this offense ends up throwing more, then obviously that's going to be good news for Jefferson.
52:19It's going to be good news for Jordan Addison, too.
52:23I'd rather have Downs. I especially love that Downs is working as the number one wide receiver in training camp for Indianapolis these days.
52:31And it helps that we got a report as recently as yesterday that Daniel Jones looks like his old self.
52:37They had team drills, full pads. Jones was running around.
52:41He was accurate. That's encouraging. I don't know if it makes me want to draft Daniel Jones in a 1QB.
52:47In fact, I do know. I don't. But as far as the receivers go, I'm in.
52:53I like it. And Josh Downs is someone I'm willing to reach up way sooner than round 10 for.
52:59Yep. I think Downs is the clear favorite for all of us in full PPR.
53:04In half PPR, my projections, Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison are all the Spider-Man meme.
53:09All right around nine and a half, nine half PPR fantasy points per game in the projections.
53:15And I think that in that format, you probably get more upside from Addison and Johnston than you do from Downs.
53:22I still think that we're maybe underrating the chances that Quentin Johnston is the biggest winner from the Mike McDaniel hire and
53:29love the fact that you can find him in round 10.
53:33Got a comment in the chat from Eric. And he says Downs will be gone by the eighth round.
53:39And if that's the case, I'll take him in the eighth round then.
53:43Yeah, I'm OK with that. I do think you have to worry about touchdowns with him.
53:49He is so small. I mean, he makes a flowers look big.
53:53Probably not. That's probably him. But he's a tiny guy.
53:56And I think small guys have could have trouble catching touchdowns.
54:00So but but again, it's worth the risk in round eight or later.
54:04Does it does it excite you at all that he averaged over 13 PPR points per game with some good target volume
54:11two seasons ago in this Shane Steichen offense? And that was back when they had bad quarterback play.
54:17Everything excites me about Josh Downs. I mean, I talked about it on our network show yesterday.
54:23He's one of the players on my most wanted list.
54:26His first three seasons are pretty similar to Jackson Smith and Jigba's first two seasons in terms of the slot rate, the
54:34yards per target, the yards per catch. He has pretty much no chance to be as good as JSN.
54:40But Josh Downs this is. But if they use him more outside, that will unlock different potential for Josh Downs.
54:47Sure. And the touchdown call is very significant. He has 11 career end zone targets.
54:52Three last year. Oh, another thing that he has in common with JSN.
54:56His number one-ish receiver from last year got traded to Pittsburgh.
55:00Oh, so that's definitely a reason to buy-ended touchdowns.
55:03Hey, what about this? He had 14 red zone targets last year.
55:07Wow. Jaden Reed, by the way, is my favorite.
55:10Wow. 88 targets overall and 14 of them were in the red zone.
55:14Let's see how many of them were inside the five.
55:17Jaden Reed might be a little underrated, too. He does have some rushing ability.
55:22He has the second most rushing yards among wide receivers over the last three seasons.
55:27He has... I love... You know I've given this before.
55:30Jaden Reed has 34 carries in the last three years.
55:34Six of them have gone for 20 or more yards.
55:37That is twice as many 20-plus yard runs over the last three years as Alvin Kamara and Ashton Gentty.
55:43All right. Let's talk about round 11 and beyond.
55:46Anyone we like here? I'm going to say a name.
55:50You tell me if you want to draft him.
55:53Matthew Golden. Jonathan. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. He's a first-round pick to last year, you know, 2025.
55:58So let's not give up on him yet. Xavier Worthy.
56:01Sure. Yeah. Romeo Dobbs. Not later than round 10, but sure.
56:05Casey Concepcion. Yes. Khalil Shakir. Concepcion is round nine.
56:08Shakir, no. He's Romeo Dobbs. I think he could be a problem for DJ Moore.
56:13Okay. Yeah. I think DJ Moore is a big problem for Khalil Shakir.
56:18Yeah. Yeah. So, so far it sounds like Concepcion is your favorite of this group?
56:23So far for me. I've got Worthy just a little higher.
56:26Okay. I do too. I'm changing it. All right.
56:29Golden, Worthy, Dobbs, Concepcion, Khalil Shakir. Jaden Higgins. A lot of buzz on Jaden Higgins for Houston.
56:35In round 12. Yeah. Round 10 too soon. Round 12.
56:38Okay. But I, I look at a lot of these wide receivers that I would take in that round 12 group and
56:46say, all right, I like this guy. He might be good.
56:49He may need an injury to really be good.
56:52I think I'd rather just take another shot at a running back and see what happens the first month of the season.
57:00Uh, we got a sleeper for Heath and Debo Samuel and a sleeper for Dave and Jalen Coker at wide receivers 54 and 55.
57:08Both better than the last six names you've said.
57:11I don't know about all six of the names, but many of them.
57:15Yes, I agree. Rashid Shahid. No. I like him as a late round pick.
57:20Might like him a lot as a late round pick.
57:23I don't know what the real ADP will be, but right now it's Stefan Diggs, wide receiver 57.
57:29Yeah. He's going to move up. Great value. Let's see.
57:32What should his ADP be? Heath? I think you're more bullish on Diggs than I am.
57:38No, I think we did it yesterday. I said round eight, nine.
57:42You said round nine. Okay. Just from yesterday, just six drafts on NFC.
57:46Stefan Diggs is going 98th overall. So that is the beginning of round nine.
57:51Perfect. All right. Let's keep going here. Stefan Diggs.
57:54Where are you? We are at wide receiver 57.
57:57So moving down, there's a big gap before Jalen McMillan.
58:00No, not now. I wouldn't be surprised. Like if Godwin doesn't have it, if he's, you know, just washed up and injured at this point, you pick up.
58:09I don't think you, I don't think you, uh, draft him, but he'll be on my radar to pick up who Jalen McMillan.
58:17Yeah. He's currently got a knee injury without a timetable.
58:20He does. Yes. He is injured. Uh, Denzel Boston and Jerry Judy.
58:24Yes. Denzel Boston. Agreed. Jalen Naylor. I still have his name high enough in my rankings to consider him with a late
58:32round pick, but he falls into that same group as Jaden Higgins.
58:36Like the opportunity. Just not sure when I'd use him in fantasy.
58:40Let's find a running back to draft instead. I prefer Trey Tucker and Tucker is four picks later at wide receiver or
58:47five picks for, uh, Omar Cooper, Jr. Dejon stripling too soon.
58:51Maybe maybe stripling. I mean, we're at pick one 72 now.
58:54Yeah. Oh, okay. Well, that's, sorry. I didn't know if we were still in round 10 or around 11.
59:01We're actually here. Yeah. Jawan. Here are the 47 wide receivers.
59:04How do you feel about wide receiver? 102 being.
59:07Too early. The last guy I want to bring up is tank Dell.
59:12Yes. He's a hundred and nine. Just for fun and draft them.
59:16Yeah. Um, the last, last guy I want to bring up is Trey Harris and Zachariah branch.
59:21No, I don't believe it. Are these keeper leagues?
59:24Christian Kirk. Is this old guy leagues? Have a great day, everybody.
59:28We'll talk to you on the mailbag. Jamie will be back next week.
59:33We've got sleepers, breakouts, and busts. We're going to do some mock drafts.
59:37Get you ready for your drafts, which are, you know, probably a little ways away for a lot of you because the season's starting a little bit later.
59:46And of course, we'll talk about the great Carson Beck.
59:50Fun fact, Christian Kirk under the age of 30, and I just called him an old guy.
59:55No, he will be 30 this year though. He's got the legs of an old guy.
60:01Um, we will, uh, talk to you later. Thanks a lot and have a great weekend.
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