PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Josh Jacobs Placed on Commissioner's Exempt List: MarShawn Lloyd & Kaleb Johnson Values (08/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
25 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 31, 2026
Published
Mon, August 31, 2026
9
Player insights
7
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian WatsonMarShawn LloydChris BrooksJordan LoveJosh JacobsKaleb JohnsonTucker Kraft
Player analysis
Player insights
Chris Brooks
PositiveValue12:04
The source suggests picking up Chris Brooks as a cheap, late-round flyer or waiver wire add. Given MarShawn Lloyd's significant injury history, Brooks serves as a logical insurance policy who has been playing passing-down snaps during the preseason.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveUsage20:52
The source anticipates the Packers will become more pass-heavy following the uncertainty in the backfield. Projecting a 20% target share for Christian Watson—which he exceeded down the stretch last year—would result in approximately 116 targets, significantly boosting his fantasy outlook.
Insight pagePositiveProjection20:56
The source projects that if Christian Watson receives a 20% target share, he would reach 116 targets; based on his career catch rate, yards per target, and touchdown rate, this would result in 14.3 PPR fantasy points per game, comparable to Nico Collins' 2023 production.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveUsage20:43
The source notes that the Packers are likely to be more pass-heavy this season, with data showing the team passes at a 61% rate when Josh Jacobs is off the field, creating an exciting environment for Jordan Love to 'cut it loose'.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeRole1:45
Josh Jacobs has been placed on the commissioner's exempt list due to pending legal charges, creating an indefinite absence. The source notes that four of the last five players placed on the list for domestic violence did not play at all that season. While he is still ranked around RB44, the source advises drafting with the expectation he may not play, as a potential public release of surveillance video could lead to a season-long absence or worse.
Insight pageKaleb Johnson
NegativeDepth Chart5:21
The Packers acquired Kaleb Johnson from the Steelers, which the source interprets as a depth move rather than a direct threat to MarShawn Lloyd's status as the lead back. The team reportedly had interest in Johnson during the pre-draft process, suggesting this was a targeted acquisition for roster depth. While it is an opportunity for Johnson, the source expects Lloyd to get the first crack at the starting role.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeBreakout1:45
MarShawn Lloyd is positioned as the lead running back for Green Bay following the news regarding Josh Jacobs. The source highlights his impressive college profile (4.4 speed, 220 lbs, high avoid rate) and notes that Green Bay's running back history under Matt LaFleur is highly productive, with six of seven seasons producing a top-16 back in non-PPR. While injury history is a concern, the source views him as a high-upside target in the RB25-RB35 range, potentially flirting with top-12 value if he secures the starting role.
Insight pageNegativeValue23:06
The source describes MarShawn Lloyd as 'just okay' while acknowledging a potential pathway for value if the Packers' offense shifts toward a more pass-heavy approach.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveUsage23:12
The source highlights Tucker Kraft as a player who could 'really rack up catches' due to his low average depth of target (A-dot), especially if the Packers struggle to run the ball.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:02So here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
1:05Welcome to a bonus edition of Fantasy Football Today, and a big opportunity for Marshawn Lloyd here, as Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner's exempt list.
1:13Adam Azer, Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg. It's Sunday night with this bonus podcast here.
1:17My apologies personally for not doing this earlier. And, you know, you know that when there is breaking news, you should expect a bonus podcast.
1:25My fault on that, but here we are. A Green Bay, I think Dave gave this stat just the other day, but
1:32a Green Bay running back has finished top 16 per game in non-PPR, top 13 per game in full PPR in six of seven seasons under Matt LaFleur.
1:41So big opportunity, but we still don't know the timeline exactly.
1:44Dave, what does it mean that Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner's exempt list?
1:48It means he's going to not play football for an undetermined amount of time.
1:53He could literally miss zero games. He could also miss the entire season.
1:57We just don't know. This is kind of a tool that the NFL has to put a player on the sideline without a suspension.
2:04And it's very clear that the league, now that charges have been filed against Jacobs, the league is taking it very seriously.
2:11Yeah, Jamie, what's your reaction here? I would guess that the NFL has seen the video that apparently is part of the charges, part of the evidence.
2:19So that's my guess, what led to this decision by the NFL.
2:23It's just speculation. But I'd be surprised if they acted the way that they did without a court case being held and
2:30a verdict being given or him being without any sort of guilty verdict, I guess.
2:35Yeah. I'm trying to speak around it. But I would probably anticipate from a timeline standpoint, the court date is November.
2:41And if he's on the exemplist, we may not see him until that court date happens, if anything is resolved on the court date.
2:49So you have to go into the season with probably the idea that Josh Jacobs is not going to play.
2:55So that's at least the way I'm approaching it.
2:58I still have him ranked. It feels kind of gross to have him ranked even as a, I think I have him
3:0444, which would put him somewhere in the round 10-ish range.
3:0844 at running back. So I get it if you want to take a swing at the fence and hope that he
3:15does play and you get what has been a very good player.
3:18But it sounds as if clearly the Packers have tried to make other plans by trading for Caleb Johnson.
3:24And I would guess, you know, we talked about this last week.
3:28I forget it was on CBS Sports Network or on one of our shows here.
3:33But that if they had brought in somebody that had a significant name or resume, that would be bad for Marshawn Lloyd.
3:40I think this is a good sign for Marshawn Lloyd that he's going to at least get the first crack at being the guy there for Green Bay.
3:48All right. So if you're watching the video here, you can see a draft I just did finished about an hour ago.
3:55The first draft I've done, obviously, since the news.
3:58And the thing is, there isn't really concrete news yet, just that he's on the commissioner's exempt list.
4:04We don't know a length of the suspension, but I took Marshawn Lloyd 58th overall.
4:08And then Bejal Tutanajadarian Price went right after that.
4:11Now, please ignore all the other stuff in this draft.
4:14There were some auto picks in this draft and whatnot.
4:17It's a 10-team league. But Lloyd went ahead of Jacobs.
4:20So I took Lloyd 58th, and Jacobs, I think, went 65th.
4:24Yes, he did. I took him ahead of two more drafts.
4:27What's that? You want two more drafts? I had two tonight.
4:31Yes. I'd love to know where they went. So the same manager, this is a mix.
4:35This is a bunch of friends from college, but a lot of people that are in sports media.
4:41And an NFL reporter, I won't say who, but took both Packers running backs, also took Lloyd first, the 10-team league.
4:48Took Lloyd 54th overall, and took Jacobs 74th overall.
4:50And I made a comment like, oh, you must be crazy to take Josh Jacobs.
4:55And, you know, again, guy who covers the league, he said, we just don't know how this is going to play out.
5:02So that was one draft. That was a 10-team league.
5:05And I'll give you a 14-team league where also Lloyd was taken first.
5:09That was a 10-team league, the first one? I'm sorry?
5:12That was a 10-team league. He said it was a 10-team league.
5:16And so was mine. Yeah. First one was 10-team, this is 14.
5:20Hold on, let me find out. Jacobs was taken after with, you know, that type of league, I think, makes more sense at this point.
5:2710-team, yeah, I was going to make that point.
5:30I was more willing. Like, I could see in a 12-team or 14-team league going with Tootin and Price over Marshawn Lloyd.
5:37But I took him, and I made it a point.
5:40I really wanted to take him in a 10-team format because I'm riskier in those formats.
5:45I'm sure you guys would agree with that. And I looked at your rankings beforehand, and I know that's kind of the area that you had Lloyd ranked.
5:54Lloyd in the 14-team league went 79th overall. Ooh.
5:57And Jacobs went 91st. Okay. All right. So I have a few more questions.
6:01But first of all, Dave, we should be clear.
6:04I mean, it's entirely possible that Jacobs isn't suspended for a while.
6:07It comes off the list at some point. Sure.
6:10Any outcome is possible, right? Yeah. And that makes it a little frustrating.
6:14Frustrating. And when I say little, I mean really, really frustrating for our purposes and fantasy football and trying to gauge what
6:21to expect from this Packers run game and who to expect from this Packers run game.
6:26The track record of NFL players that are put on the commissioner's exempt list for domestic violence cases is very bad.
6:33Four of the last five players who were put on it for this exact reason did not play at all in the
6:39seasons that they were put on the list. One includes Adrian Peterson.
6:43That was all the way back in 2014. And he was suspended.
6:47He was put on the list in 2014. Didn't play at all that year.
6:51Kareem Hunt is another one that fantasy managers remember from 2018.
6:55He was put on the list late in the year because the video of him committing the domestic violence came out and
7:01he was immediately put on the list and then the Chiefs immediately cut him.
7:06It is possible that something similar could happen here if the video is released to the public.
7:11I don't know who's seen the video, whether the NFL has or not, but we know in the police report that a video does exist.
7:19That might have been enough for the league. The one player who didn't have his season ended when he was put on the exempt list was Jabril Peppers.
7:28And this was recently. This was a few years back.
7:31He was on the exempt list for seven weeks.
7:33And when he came off the exempt list, it was reported that the league took him off because the six game suspension
7:40that is now part of the current CBA was they let him sit on the exemption list a week too long.
7:47They felt that it wasn't right and they took him off the list.
7:51So that was after seven weeks that he was on the commissioner's exempt list.
7:55If you go and look at the Peppers case, he was eventually acquitted.
7:59And I can't help but wonder if the league knew that there were some facts in the case that were in Peppers favor.
8:06I don't know. This is me just spitballing. And that could be why the league took him off the exempt list.
8:13But to your point, Adam, we just don't know.
8:16And you can't draft Jacobs with the idea that, oh, he'll just miss six games.
8:20He'll come right back. He'll be a top 10 fantasy running back.
8:24It's possible that that happens. But I would lean against it.
8:27These charges seem pretty serious. And I think everything and we've felt this way ever since the charges were actually filed.
8:34If this surveillance video does eventually reach the public, I think it could be really bad for Josh Jacobs, not just this year, but for the years after.
8:43Okay, we'll talk about Marshawn Lloyd and the rest of the Packers backfield in just a moment.
8:48We'll take a quick break on FFT Express. How much time do we spend on this podcast talking about value?
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10:05Pickup fees may apply. Okay, I said it was FFT Express.
10:09It's not. It's just regular FFT bonus edition. Marshawn Lloyd was a third-round pick three seasons ago in 2024.
10:15NFL draft ran a 4'4", 6'40". At 5'9", 220 pounds.
10:18Pretty impressive stuff. Had the second-best avoid rate in the nation among 160 running backs with 100 or more carries.
10:24But he tore his ACL. He missed all of 2020.
10:27And he's been injured ever since entering the league.
10:30I think he has six career carries. So, big opportunity for him.
10:34He's obviously the top guy. What we've seen in the preseason is Chris Brooks playing on passing downs and Marshawn Lloyd basically playing like the workhorse running back.
10:42That's just not going to play on passing downs.
10:45There's a lot of those guys. Jamie, how good do you think he's going to be?
10:50And what else do we need to know about the Packers backfield, which, as you mentioned, now includes Caleb Johnson, formerly of the Steelers?
10:58My guess is from now until week one, it's sort of an open tryout because I'm sure they want to see what Caleb Johnson has.
11:05And I did hear something. I don't remember where, so I apologize.
11:09That I believe the Packers had Johnson in for a workout in the pre-draft process.
11:14So, the thought might have been, at least I think where I heard it, that this was not necessarily completely tied.
11:20This was prior to the news, that this was not necessarily completely tied to just the Jacobs signing, that they were actually interested in Caleb Johnson.
11:28And if the Steelers were going to cut him, they basically got him for nothing, you know, a very late round draft swap.
11:35So, I'm sure that this was a targeted move by the Packers.
11:39And they made a lot of, like, depth trades or a few depth trades.
11:43They traded back a quarterback today. You know, they made some, you know, maneuvers with their roster, as most teams did.
11:50But I think in the case of Caleb Johnson, like, this is a huge opportunity for him.
11:55So, a lot of people sitting on him in Dynasty, you're happy about this scenario unfolding because he was not going to get this chance in Pittsburgh.
12:04I think you've got to view it as Lloyd is the lead guy right now.
12:08I think, I did this in a few leagues prior to today, prior to the news happening.
12:14Like, try to just pick up Chris Brooks because of Marshawn Lloyd's injury track record.
12:18Like, that's not a bad, cheap option that you can get off waivers that if you've already had your rookie draft and
12:25your rosters are set and your waivers are already running.
12:28Like, why not just take a flyer on him just to see?
12:32And so, I think just looking at Lloyd, I don't know where Dave and Heath put him in, put Lloyd in their rankings.
12:39Like, for me, he's in that jumbled group of Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks, Tony Pollard, the Commanders guys, the Broncos guys.
12:45Like, you can put him anywhere top to bottom on that list, you know?
12:50So, anywhere from, like, RB25-ish to RB35-ish. What about Tootin and Price going back to?
12:54So, yeah. You know, I would take those two guys over him right now just because I think they're in a little bit better standing.
13:02But the upside, if you want to play the upside card, he's got that same type of ability because, as Dave said,
13:09six of the last seven running backs for Matt LaFleur have been top 16 or better.
13:14But you've got to put the butt there. And maybe just the Jonathan Brooks is the best comparison.
13:19You know, talented guy in college, hard time staying healthy, great opportunity.
13:23If you're just looking at comparing the two scenarios, one guy's got a proven veteran behind him in Chupa Hubbard.
13:29One guy's got nothing. You know, so if you just want to go with that route, go that route of, okay, I'll
13:36take Packers running back versus Panthers running back or Packers running back versus Seattle running back, you know, just – or Jacksonville running back.
13:44Like, clearly, the Packers environment is awesome. So, however you want to view Marshall Lloyd, the thing that I just hope fantasy
13:51managers don't do and we don't do as well in overrating him is draft him too soon.
13:56You know, so if you're looking at it like I'm taking Packers running back, he's not Josh Jacobs.
14:01And there still could be another shoe that falls here of a James Conner or, you know, early in the season type
14:08of scenario of, like, the Titans are out of it.
14:11They want to trade Tony Pollard. You know, I'm just throwing that out there.
14:16But, like, you know, something along those lines of somebody that could still be on the roster because they are a Super Bowl caliber team.
14:23This weakens them tremendously. But this is still a Super Bowl caliber roster that is missing what might be their best offensive player.
14:31And so non-quarterback. So losing Jacobs could just change how they view everything and they may say, okay, who can we go get?
14:38And we still may get somebody else there. Like, I guess the bad thing, I was going to say Aaron Jones reunion
14:45because they're not going to trade within the division.
14:47But, you know, something along those lines of something like that.
14:51You know, veteran guy that could still be added to his roster that changes everything.
14:55I would also just point out that, I mean, it might sound silly, but there is still a chance Jacobs can play this year.
15:03Oh, yeah. And so if you draft Lloyd and you take him in round five, are you taking him knowing that by
15:10week seven or week eight he's in a part-time role and Jacobs is back?
15:14I mean, I... If you... But just to stop you right there.
15:18Just to stop you right there. If you knew that that's the length of time he's out, I think round five comes into play.
15:25I think it's still too early. But like round five comes into play because it's almost like you're taking that freebie of that start of the season.
15:34Maybe. But the uncertainty around Jacobs, the uncertainty around Lloyd staying healthy, the uncertainty about how much work Lloyd is actually going to have.
15:41I mean, I agree with you that he's in that 25 to 30 range at running back.
15:46But I'm thinking like round seven at the absolute...
15:49Oh, wow. Wow. I don't know. I think round six is...
15:53I'm not going to be... I'm not going to get a lot of Marshawn Lloyd.
15:57Yeah, I think I am because like... He's my most rostered player because I was taking him so many weeks ahead of this.
16:04Well, sure. But when you were taking him, was that round five, round six?
16:09Oh, no, no, no, no. No way. I mean, I go back to like the fishbowl.
16:14My last pick, I was torn, understandably so, between the two 49ers running backs, backups, and Marshawn Lloyd.
16:19And I remember, you know, listing out the pros and cons in my head of there's the...
16:25Maybe the guys for San Francisco, one could be good.
16:28If Jacobs is suspended, this guy could be a monster.
16:31Yeah, Lloyd could be great. And it was easy to take Lloyd.
16:35I think it would be easy to do in the double digit rounds.
16:39If we're in a draft this weekend and Lloyd is sitting there and even in round eight, round nine, he's not going to be.
16:46But of course, in that type of situation, you'll gladly take him.
16:50Yeah, but I'm going to be pretty aggressive. I'll just give the counter to that.
16:54I think he's... I don't love at Minnesota in week one.
16:58But after that, at the Jets, Falcons, at the Bucs, Bears, Cowboys, you know, maybe some of these end up being good run defenses.
17:05But I think the schedule was perfectly fine for him after week one.
17:09And he could still... Minnesota's pass defense was amazing at the end of last year.
17:14Their run defense was fine. But sorry, just to finish it off.
17:18Like you said, even if he only has a limited run, I'm going to assume it's at least six games where Marshawn
17:25Lloyd is a starting running back for the Packers.
17:27I think he's going to be flirting with top 12.
17:30I think he's going to be so much better.
17:33That was the question I was going to ask you.
17:36That's what I think. Yeah, I must start without a question.
17:40But you don't factor in the injury history there at all.
17:43I mean, you do. Yeah. You do. But, you know, I'm not taking him in the third round.
17:49I think Tootin and Price are tough ones, especially Price with Charbonnet starting on Pup.
17:53But then after that, I mean, it's Patriots. It's all these guys in committees.
17:58Like big-time committees. And I'm absolutely taking Lloyd ahead of anybody, including Jonathan Brooks, which I took both of them in this draft today.
18:05No, I'm listening. Over the committee, guys. The reason I said 25, that's where I put him.
18:10So he's behind Tootin and Price. He's ahead of Armandre.
18:14He's ahead of Brooks. He's ahead of the Commanders.
18:16He's, you know. Yeah. I think once you get to round six at running back, I think round seven just overall, like
18:23that's where you start taking upside plays. Yes. And that's the type of upside play, to your point.
18:29Like I don't think top 12 is realistic if he's not going to play on passing downs.
18:34I do. But top 20 is realistic just given the fact of the offense that he plays in and the fact that
18:41he could be their goal line option. Look, Jacobs by the end of last season playing through injury, not explosive, clearly was not the same guy.
18:49And so I think just knowing that they've been waiting for this guy in terms of Marshawn Lloyd to have some semblance
18:56of a role, not the lead role, but to have a role to inject some speed into the backfield to maybe, you
19:03know, offset some of Jacobs, maybe getting too much work and wearing down like we saw last season.
19:08Like they were waiting for this kid to be healthy.
19:11It's why they stuck with him. They could have easily moved on at any point or found somebody else.
19:17And so allowing Emmanuel Wilson to walk, sticking with, okay, it's Lloyd and Brooks, and then waiting until the 11th hour with
19:24their roster being set to just go get Caleb Johnson.
19:27That's a pretty good indication, I think, of what they think of Lloyd.
19:31So it's the hope that he's that guy. But at the same time, if Caleb Johnson looks amazing.
19:37I can just stop you right there. No, but I mean, look, the Steelers thought he could.
19:42We all fell for it because of opportunity. Yeah, but he's like, Lloyd's going to get the first chance here without question.
19:49I just hope he doesn't struggle in week one.
19:52Of course he does. Yeah, you hope he doesn't struggle in week one.
19:56I actually remember this same team. Oh, man. I want to say it was Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones.
20:02One of them started the year with a two-game suspension.
20:05I don't think it was Jones. Whatever it was, and I just remember the backup guy had such a tough schedule, or
20:12he had such an easy schedule the first game, whatever.
20:15I think it was such a tough schedule. God, I shouldn't be talking about this because I don't remember all the specifics.
20:22But I hope he gets off to a good start as somebody who's going to be aggressive drafting Lloyd.
20:27At Minnesota in week one is a little bit scary, but if they just stick with him, he's their best option right now.
20:35And Packers, they're just a great offense for fantasy.
20:37And there's another angle of this because we'll wrap it up, and this is a long bonus pod.
20:43Another angle of this I think we'll talk about tomorrow is you've got to figure this team is more pass-heavy now than they've been the last two years.
20:52Oh, and they have been. They have been. And that is huge for Watson.
20:56I mean, I did some math today. If you gave Christian Watson a 20% target share on Jordan Love's pass attempts three
21:03seasons ago before they got Josh Jacobs. Give him a 20% target share, and he was blowing that away last year down the stretch.
21:10But just give Watson a 20% target share. That's 116 targets.
21:14What Christian Watson would do with 116 targets based on his career catch rate, yards per target, and touchdown rate would be
21:2114.3 PPR fantasy points per game, which is basically what Nico Collins averaged last year.
21:25And even a great year for receivers the year before, it's still around top 24.
21:30And that's just with a 20% target share. So, I mean, the possibilities for the passing game are so much better now.
21:37And I think that's exciting too. So we'll talk about that tomorrow, but we'll end this fun right now.
21:43I'll let your whistle. Over the last two years, they've been exactly 50-50 in pass and run.
21:48634 plays where Love is on the field and Jacobs is not.
21:52The Packers are 61% pass. Yeah, I mean, that's a little deceiving because he'll come off the field on like a third and long or something like that.
22:00Sure, but I even have it on first and second downs, 52% pass.
22:04Okay, I see. First and second downs in the first three quarters, 54% pass.
22:09Those aren't amazing. It's certainly not as eye-opening as 61%.
22:12You're right. The third downs obviously are a factor.
22:15But the mere fact that when Jacobs hasn't been there, they have at least leaned into Jordan Love throwing a little bit more encourages me to a degree.
22:23And I think that this is the exact right time for them to let Jordan Love cut it loose.
22:29And, Jamie, you brought up one last point. The fact that there's no Micah Parsons for the first four weeks, that really hurts their defense.
22:37Six weeks. That's going to force them. Yeah, you're right.
22:40That's going to hurt them. Well, they play Dallas in week six, right?
22:44No, it's four weeks for Parsons. Right. It's four weeks.
22:47Right. I think he wants to be back for that Dallas game.
22:51So he might even miss five games. But bottom line is this is going to be a team that might actually take
22:58to the air to begin the year. And that's very exciting for Jordan Love.
23:02And they might stick with it all year long if Jacobs doesn't come back.
23:06Lloyd is just okay. You can see the pathway.
23:09Not just Watson being good, but Matthew Golden. Certainly Tucker Kraft.
23:13Wow. With his low A dot. Man, we're talking about somebody who could really rack up catches if they can't run the ball.
23:20You also have, I mean, this might be the most offensive friendly division.
23:24Lions good. Bears now good. Vikings should be much better.
23:27And only one of them has a defense. Yeah.
23:30On paper. Yeah. I mean, Detroit's got Aiden Hutchinson.
23:33Doom, doom, doom, doom, doom, doom. Go, Pat, go.
23:35Yeah. That's basic. It's weird to have that feeling after Josh Jacobs' injury.
23:39But running the ball is bad for fantasy, basically.
23:42Passing it is great. Even for running backs. That's true.
23:45Even for running backs as they'll catch them on first and second.
23:49Sure. Sure. Yeah. I mean, I can think of a couple of running backs at the top of drafts that are really good at running the ball.
23:57No, no. I'm just saying that teams that pass a lot are going to be better for fantasy than teams that run a lot.
24:05I think. Sure. Because there's more. I mean, I get what you're saying.
24:09I just don't want to act like running backs are meaningless.
24:12No, no. I wasn't saying that at all. You're meaningless.
24:15Yeah. Okay. We'll end it at that. And there he is.
24:19The weird Adam Azer insult. Yeah. Okay. We'll talk to you tomorrow with some risers and fallers in our rankings.
24:25Or whenever. We'll talk to you on Monday, whenever you happen to hear this podcast.
24:30Thank you so much for those of you who stayed up and watched it.
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