PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
10 Players We’re WORRIED About Being WRONG About (06/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 29, 2026
Published
Mon, June 29, 2026
31
Player insights
10
Players mentioned
Topics
D.J. MooreJaylen WarrenRico DowdleJadarian PriceTrayvon HendersonBrock BowersDalton KincaidKhalil ShakirRhamondre StevensonZach Charbonnet
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
NegativeValue0:45
Brock Bowers is going 20th overall in Fantasy Pros and 25th overall in CBS ADP, but the depth at tight end makes it difficult to justify that investment when five tight ends could score 13+ PPR points per game with two available in round six or seven.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:45
Heath is worried about being a year too early on Brock Bowers, concerned that while he remains awesome, the tight end position has become so deep that investing a pick at the one-two turn is risky when other options like Laporta, Pitts, Loveland, and McBride could provide similar production in later rounds.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeProjection0:52
Adam is worried about being wrong on DJ Moore because at 29 years old, his yards per route run rate has been abysmal for two straight seasons, and Buffalo has been 25th and 26th in pass attempts the last two years under the run-heavy Joe Brady system.
Insight pagePositiveBust0:53
DJ Moore has been top 24 in PPR per game only twice in his eight-year career, and last year he had one of the lowest target per route run rates of any wide receiver with 50+ targets, raising questions about his actual ability.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:54
DJ Moore faces competition from Khalil Shakir (solid slot player) and Dalton Kincaid (finally healthy), which could limit his target share even if he leads the team in targets.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:54
Based on Buffalo's past volume, DJ Moore could lead the team in targets but that could be as low as 115 targets or less, limiting his ceiling despite the opportunity.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:54
Adam notes that DJ Moore might not be that good anymore, and combined with Buffalo's low passing volume over the last two years, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about his fantasy value.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:55
Heath has apparently ranked DJ Moore ahead of his ADP but has not clicked his name approximately zero times this summer, indicating hesitation despite the ranking.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:56
Dave believes Joe Brady brought DJ Moore to Buffalo because he trusts him, and Moore had one of his best seasons under Brady in Carolina, suggesting familiarity could help him succeed.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:58
DJ Moore is walking into a situation where no receiver has consistent green zone and end zone targets, and he has four seasons with double-digit end zone targets, positioning him well for touchdown upside in Buffalo's offense.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:58
DJ Moore could score 8 or more touchdowns in Buffalo, which would make him worth a round 5 pick, especially given that the Bills have been seventh in passing touchdowns and should expect 28+ touchdowns from Josh Allen.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:59
Scott Turner, who coached DJ Moore, said he's running faster than it looks and is a glider who doesn't appear to be putting in full effort but is, and will be really good on Josh Allen's improv plays.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:59
Dave is in on DJ Moore in round 5, excited about the opportunity despite concerns about his ability, noting that there aren't many sure things at that draft position.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveRole0:58
Dalton Kincaid is finally healthy and has 11 end zone targets in three seasons (41 games), indicating he will be a factor in Buffalo's passing game.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeBust0:10
Dave is worried about hyping up a rookie too much; Price was a first-round pick despite not having as much work as typical first-round running backs, and he has a history of fumbling near the goal line.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:11
Price will split work with Zach Charbonnet (returning from ACL injury) and George Helani, and Seattle has a history of splitting work between running backs, limiting his opportunity.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:12
Dave projects Price for 269 touches, but notes that in the last 11 seasons, 15 first-round running backs averaged 15.5 touches per game (255-262 touches), and he doubts Price will reach that threshold.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveValue0:47
Jaylen Warren is going 22 picks earlier than Rico Dowdle in Fantasy Pros (70th overall vs. 92nd overall) but nearly back-to-back in CBS ADP (75th vs. 79th overall), with Dave ranking them very close to each other in the round 7-8 turn range.
Insight pageNegativeUsage0:48
Jaylen Warren had a 28.6% success rate inside the five-yard line last year, meaning he didn't score many touchdowns from that area, which could limit his red zone production compared to Rico Dowdle.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:49
Dave is concerned that Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle could end up in an annoying split where they alternate drives rather than having clear running-down and passing-down roles, which would limit Warren's upside despite his explosiveness.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:50
Jaylen Warren had 40 catches last year despite not being the third-down back, demonstrating solid pass-catching ability that could translate to the Pittsburgh offense.
Insight pageKhalil Shakir
PositiveRole0:58
Khalil Shakir is Buffalo's slot guy who has played four seasons with only six end zone targets, indicating he will get targets but limited red zone involvement.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveProjection0:09
Through weeks 1-15, Stevenson averaged 9 PPR points per game with only 3 touchdowns in 11 games, though he was unbelievable to end the regular season.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
PositiveValue0:48
Dave loves the value for Rico Dowdle, ranking him very close to Jaylen Warren in the round 7-8 turn range (31st RB, 85th overall) despite going 22 picks later in Fantasy Pros ADP.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:48
Rico Dowdle has a strong connection with new Pittsburgh head coach Mike McCarthy, who kept him around for several years in Dallas and gave him a major opportunity in 2024 that led to his 2025 contract, suggesting McCarthy values his abilities.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:48
Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren were within one catch of each other and within 0.1 targets per game over the past two years, indicating similar pass-catching involvement despite different team situations.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:49
Rico Dowdle had a 75% success rate inside the five-yard line last year (40% the year before), suggesting he will likely get goal-line carries in Pittsburgh's offense.
Insight pageTrayvon Henderson
PositiveDepth Chart0:05
Ramondre Stevenson was legitimately awesome last year, and if he repeats that performance, Henderson will be limited to boom weeks and is better suited as a flex than an RB2.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout0:06
In a three-game stretch without Ramondre Stevenson (weeks 9-11), Henderson averaged 19 touches per game, 4 targets per game, and 24 PPR points per game, demonstrating elite upside if he can overtake Stevenson.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:06
If Henderson improves as a runner, pass catcher, and blocker in Josh McDaniels' offense, he could overtake Ramondre Stevenson and be ranked significantly higher than current ADP of 53rd overall.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
PositiveInjury0:11
Charbonnet is returning from an ACL injury suffered in January, and it's unclear when he will be back or how effective he will be upon return, which affects Price's opportunity.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hi, it's Sierra Miller. I can't wait for you to check out my new collection of shoes and accessories at Designer Shoe Warehouse.
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0:29Swap play! It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
0:32Off to the races and he stays on his feet.
0:35Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
0:38One of my favorite topics every year. Players were worried about being wrong about.
0:42It's tough to just say it. If I don't screw up the title of the show at any point, then it's a win.
0:50Welcome to Monday's edition, June 29th. Adam, Dave and Heath.
0:53What's up, Dave? Sir, hello. What's up, Heath? Seems like a lot of abouts.
0:58Yeah. And worrying. A lot of worrying, too. Worried about.
1:01Well, players were worried about being wrong about. It's not that many.
1:05What about players were worried we are wrong about?
1:08How about players were worried about? No, that's completely different.
1:11Completely different. Dave, come on. Not the same thing at all, Dave.
1:15Come on, Dave Richard. That's a different show. I'm worried about being wrong about Cam Scadaboo, DJ Moore and Colson Loveland.
1:21Dave is worried about being wrong about Jadarian Price, Sam Laporta and the Steelers running backs.
1:26Heath is worried about being wrong about Travion Henderson and Mecca Buka and Brock Bowers.
1:31I'm pretty much worried about being wrong about every top 40 player, I guess.
1:36Well, that was one thing I was going to say at the top.
1:40I think if I was putting together an even better list, it probably would have been a lot of guys we talked about last week.
1:48It's those guys from pick 12 through 24, maybe even extending a little bit past that.
1:53But we just talked about all those guys last week.
1:56Like, I'm really worried about being wrong about Devon A.
2:00Chan, but I feel like we kind of covered that.
2:03I appreciate that. And for me, I pick guys that I am sort of typically completely in or out on.
2:09I just don't draft them or I draft them a lot.
2:13I don't know if you guys kind of felt the same way or intend to draft them or not draft them.
2:20I think I mostly put guys that I'm afraid that I'm too low on.
2:24I'm not worried about the guys that I'm excited about because I'm excited about them.
2:29True, but you know, you could be like me with DJ Moore.
2:33I'm excited. I'm like, there's a lot of red flags here.
2:36A lot of red flags. Yeah, I could be wrong.
2:39But I don't really worry about being wrong about being excited about players.
2:44Okay. I worry about being wrong about being too low about players.
2:48Thank you for saying about that many times. News and notes real quick here.
2:52About how many times did I say it? Oh, that's four in the last 30 seconds.
2:57Houston offensive coordinator Nick Caley talked up CJ Stroud, said he looks good.
3:01He's locked in. He's more comfortable now. He's at a different comfort level this season.
3:06So that is nice to see, especially if you want to draft Nico Collins or anyone else in that passing game.
3:13ESPN's Jeremy Fowler was on TV and he said that he thinks Rashid Shahid had a great spring and will have a bigger role this season.
3:21And Brendan Soresby will not be eligible to play in the CFL.
3:25Is there any news I missed? Not a lot.
3:28It was a pretty quiet weekend. You know, it's not a lot going on when Brendan Soresby is your third news item.
3:35Yeah. I mean, yeah, he had been first. Johnny in the chat says, Adam gets excited about a good fruit salad.
3:42100%. I like fruit salad. Who doesn't? Yummy, yummy.
3:45Yummy, yummy. Who doesn't? If you were, ah, forget it.
3:48Heath, what's coming up on FFT Dynasty? Were you about to ask us if you were a fruit in a fruit salad, what fruit would you be?
3:57I thought he was going to ask what fruit we would put in a fruit salad if we could choose like the
4:04top four fruits to put in a salad. I love that.
4:07Let's do that. Let's do that midway through the show.
4:10Make a fruit salad with only four fruits. Which do you choose?
4:14Heath, what's coming up? I'll be talking about fruit salad on FFT Dynasty, but it is rankings update week.
4:20We'll have new rankings coming out on July 1st.
4:23So we'll be talking about some of the movers and the shakers and the Dynasty rankings over the last calendar month.
4:30Yeah. Okay. Let's do this show here. I'm going to let Heath go first with Travion Henderson.
4:36You are worried about being wrong about Travion Henderson.
4:38He's RB 22 in Fantasy Pro's PPR ADP. He's RB 53rd overall.
4:42What are you worried about? No, and I think with Travion, I've kind of just ranked him, I think, where everybody else has.
4:50You said he's 22 and 53. I might be a little higher overall.
4:54I have him at RB 23 and 60. But there's kind of two sides of this.
4:59One, Ramondre Stevenson was legitimately awesome last year. And if he's that good again, then Travion Henderson's not going to be someone that you like want to start.
5:08He's just going to have some boom weeks when you don't expect it.
5:12He's probably a better flex than an RB two.
5:15Two, I think Travion Henderson's awesome. And he did some things last year that were pretty awesome.
5:21And I would hate to be out on Travion Henderson and have exactly what we thought was going to happen last year happen this year.
5:29So he's one of those guys that has this wide range of outcomes, which is the type of player I'm usually worried about being wrong about.
5:37And you and Dave are pretty similar. You both have Travion Henderson about 22 or 23 in your running back rankings.
5:44Jamie has him 28th. And again, on fantasy process, ADP is 22.
5:48So you and Dave basically have Travion at ADP.
5:50Jamie's the low guy on Travion Henderson. Dave, are you worried about being wrong about Travion Henderson?
5:56Not really, because I've got him at a spot in my rankings where the running backs around him all have similar, not
6:03similar question marks, because he's a unique case. He's somebody who one year of experience.
6:08Everybody knows this. We saw the highlight plays just didn't get enough opportunities.
6:12When he did get opportunities, there was that three game stretch.
6:16In the middle of the year without Ramondre Stevenson, he played like a top five fantasy running back.
6:21He averaged over 24 points per game. That's part of the upside case for Travion Henderson is that he just outplays Ramondre Stevenson.
6:29He gets better at all the little things that running backs are asked to do in a Josh McDaniels offense.
6:35And he relegates Ramondre Stevenson, who was, let's be real.
6:38Like he had moments of being good last year.
6:41He was unbelievable to end the regular season, but it's not like he was amazing.
6:46He's a solid NFL running back. He's going to be able to play, but he can be overtaken.
6:52And if Henderson is improved in any way, shape or form as a runner and as a pass catcher and as a
6:59blocker, all those important things, then we're ranking him way too low.
7:03So I've kind of middled it. I feel the same way he does.
7:07I want to get him, especially when I feel good about my first four picks, when I love my first four picks,
7:14or if I see him in round six, yeah, I'll fire the shot on Travion Henderson.
7:19I think it's the guys he's ranked right in the same range as Deandre Swift, Javante Williams, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard, maybe for some Bucky Irving for some.
7:28And I just think, man, if Travion hits, I'm going to feel so dumb for drafting those running backs over Travion Henderson.
7:35It's true. Because those guys, I don't know how many of those guys, you can run through those names again.
7:42How many of them have, let's call it, let's go low.
7:45Let's say 17 PPR point per game potential. That's not low.
7:49That's pretty high. That's really high. No, that's high in general.
7:52Well, I'm thinking in relation to the three game stretch that I just talked about that Travion had weeks, nine, 10, 11,
7:5919 touches per game, four targets per game, 24 PPR points per game.
8:04Yeah. But here's the thing. That was all without Ramondre, right?
8:07Yeah. Yeah. So I'm not saying Travion Henderson doesn't have huge upside without Ramondre, but you know, he's going behind Deandre Swift.
8:14Does Deandre Swift have huge upside without with common on guy?
8:18Yeah, of course. Of course. He does. Bejal Tootin have huge upside if Chris Rodriguez were to get hurt.
8:24I think so. So I think he might have huge upside, even if Chris Rodriguez stays.
8:29Right. So you have to ask the question. I mean, what, who's got upside if the other guy stays healthy?
8:35And you said Ramondre can be overtaken. I agree.
8:38Ramondre can be overtaken, but I don't think that Ramondre just goes away.
8:42I think pre 2020, and that's where I think Dave and I disagree just a little bit is I think pre 2025 Ramondre can definitely be overtaken.
8:51I really think maybe we're under, like, especially in the passing game.
8:55He caught 87% of the passes thrown his way and averaged almost 11 yards per catch on those on those plays.
9:02Right. But that's so out of the ordinary for him.
9:05Right. Exactly. That's exactly what I'm saying. Yeah. Yeah.
9:08Like if he's that guy, then Travion's not making, if he's the guy that's averaging four and a half yards per target
9:15and struggling to get to four yards per carry, then yeah, Travion could make him go away completely.
9:21Yeah. Yeah. I also want to bring up that through weeks one through 15 Ramondre Stevenson averaged nine PPR points per game.
9:28He had three touchdowns in 11 games. Well, in the games that he was healthy, I don't know why I'd never have updated these.
9:36I did this before the Superbowl. So not including the Superbowl, they had about the same amount of touches in the Superbowl,
9:43but in the games where, where he was healthy weeks one through eight, 12, 13, 15 through 18.
9:48And then the first three playoff games, Ramondre had 181 carries.
9:52Travion had 157. Ramondre had 39 catches. Travion had 27 catches.
9:55Biggest stat for me from the three yard line or closer.
9:59Ramondre had eight carries. Travion had two. Any chance you have those numbers without the final three regular season games?
10:05No. All right. So that's Travion Henderson. Let's move on.
10:09Let's get Dave's first guy. He's similar, you know, about a round later.
10:13Jadarian Price. He's RB 26 in ADP. Henderson was 22.
10:16Henderson was going 53rd overall or is going 53rd overall.
10:19Jadarian Price is going 66th overall. Dave, what are you concerned about being wrong about as it relates to Jadarian Price?
10:26I am worried that we're hyping up a rookie too much.
10:30First round pick was a little surprising. I don't know.
10:33A lot of mockers had Price going first round to Seattle.
10:36To me, it was a little bit surprising for somebody who just didn't have as much work as a typical running back that's taken in round one has.
10:45So clearly he was drafted for the athletic profile and he's a good running back.
10:50The film proved that at Notre Dame and he's going to a spot in Seattle where in theory, he should run away
10:57with this thing for the first half of the year.
11:00Zach Charbonnet coming back from the ACL injury in January.
11:04We don't know when he's going to be back and we don't know how good he'll be when he does come back,
11:11but it's still a rookie who's going to split.
11:14Seattle's going to split work between the running backs.
11:17They proved that last year and they're talking about George Helani like he's going to be an important part of the team.
11:24He's going to be great for fantasy, but he's great for the Seahawks and that's why the Seahawks love him.
11:30They're changing coordinators. The offensive line is okay. And Price himself has a history of fumbling near the goal line.
11:36That's going to be something that could hold him back.
11:40How does a rookie go about proving that he's solved fumbling issues when he doesn't get opportunities near the goal line to do such a thing?
11:48That makes me a little bit concerned. And so what's his ADP, Adam?
11:5266th, I think I said. Right. So we're talking like beginning of round six.
11:57I guess that's okay, but I'm kind of feeling like I might be out on price unless just the steam and training
12:04camp is so strong for him and it's just so obvious.
12:07But then again, it seemed like it was obvious for Travion last year.
12:11Everybody was crazy about him. We were taking him in rounds three and rounds four and look what happened.
12:18So I think I'm going to pull back a little bit on Jadarian Price.
12:22And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. And I'll be a little bit worried about that.
12:27But I think I'd rather be I think I'd rather settle for him than reach for him.
12:32I'll give you the number that I throw out a lot.
12:36In the last 11 seasons, 15 running backs have been drafted in the first round.
12:41I did not not including Travis Etienne who missed his rookie season.
12:4513 of those 15 running backs averaged 15 and a half touches per game.
12:49Do you think Jadarian Price averages 15 and a half touches per game over the course of the season?
12:55I'm going to say no. 15 and a half.
12:58I have him projected. So that'd be 255, 262 touches for the year.
13:02Right? Sure. Sure. I have him projected for 269.
13:05Okay. So you think he's going to get more than that?
13:09What do you have for Charbonnet? I'm really curious about that.
13:12I have mostly no idea. I've got him at 156.
13:15Okay. All right. Yeah. I mean, I'm a little concerned about Price just because it felt like he got drafted in the first round out of complete necessity.
13:24He was the last pick of the first round of a team that was so desperate at running back.
13:31Um, and, uh, yeah, it's, we don't know. We don't know.
13:34Sounds a lot like Clyde, doesn't it? It does.
13:37Exactly. Even he had 16.7, I believe touches per game as a rookie, but he struggled obviously.
13:42Um, all right. So what do you think? Are you in or out at pick 66 on Jadarian price?
13:49I think I'm right around there. When we started, when this week started, he was a little bit higher than that for me.
13:56And now I'm just talking about it. It's going to be cold feet.
14:00I'm going to be a little out on Jadarian price.
14:03Currently. I have him 67th. Um, there's like six running backs though, in that range around behind Travion that I'd be fine with kind of all the same.
14:12So, okay. Uh, right. So then let's, uh, let's take a break.
14:16When we come back, we'll talk about Cam Scadaboo.
14:19Another running back here who is going 45th overall as RB 19.
14:23I'll tell you why I'm currently out on Cam Scadaboo, but why I'm worried about being wrong about Cam Scadaboo after this.
14:30All right. Cam Scadaboo was a top 10 running back per game, despite playing fewer than 22% of the snaps in two
14:37of his eight games in his six games with a normal snap share.
14:41Scadaboo was on pace for 1,638 total yards, 60 catches and 17 touchdowns.
14:46Um, obviously that looks great. He's going to be on a team that really wants to run the ball, a team that
14:53should have a, I think a pretty good offensive line, better at tackle than on the interior.
14:58But as long as Andrew Thomas, their left tackle stays healthy, which has been an issue should have a good offensive line.
15:05Um, but I'm out right now. And now certainly out on him in round three, he's currently around four pick.
15:12I, I, you know, 45th overall, we're getting toward the end of round four.
15:16I could start to be convinced to be in on Cam Scadaboo, but listen, here's why I'm out right now.
15:22Huge injury that he's coming back from open tibia fracture and a ruptured deltoid ligament and a dislocated right ankle.
15:29Everything seems really positive with Cam Scadaboo with the injury.
15:32You know, it's just trending in the right direction.
15:35He's going to be ready for training camp. He's doing backflips, whatever, but it just doesn't mean that we know what his
15:42explosion and his athleticism is going to be like because oftentimes it takes a while to really recover.
15:48So that's number one. Number two, he's a day three pick.
15:51He's a day three pick. And we've, we've played this game so many times here over the last four seasons.
15:58Here are some players who were day three picks and showed good, good signs, uh, last four or five seasons.
16:04Um, Ramondre Stevenson, Khalil Herbert, Damian Pierce. He was being drafted.
16:08I think kind of where Scadaboo is being drafted now.
16:11Tyler Algier, Isaiah Pacheco, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy, Cam Scadaboo, Basil Tootin.
16:15He was barely a day three pick. He was the third pick of the round in a great running back class, but he was a day three pick.
16:24He averaged 4.1 yards per carry. He had one carry longer than 21 yards out of, I think, 104 carries or something like that.
16:32So I also don't know what his receiving role is going to be.
16:36It was so good last year. He made a lot of his, his fantasy bacon on his receiving role.
16:42So I am out because of the injury. I know I'm out because of the injury.
16:47Um, I am out because I think he's one of the most likely players to get injured again, based on his style of play.
16:55I'm out because he was a terrible pass blocker last year and came into the league with a reputation of not being good as a pass blocker.
17:03So I don't know that he'll keep that third down roll.
17:07Uh, and I am worried though, because damn, he was so good.
17:11Heath. Yeah. I think, um, when I thought it was going to be around three, I probably felt more like you do.
17:18Yeah. And round four seems just about right. Like I mentioned that group of running backs just ahead of Travion Henderson, Swift,
17:25Javante, A-chan, um, Travis and guys in that range.
17:28I prefer Scadaboo over all of them. Uh, I think it's really difficult for me, Scadaboo and Judkins, um, in that round
17:35four range, but I, that's, that's where I think they belong.
17:38Well, the ADPs are very different right now for those two Scadaboo 45th overall Judkins and not that different 55th overall.
17:45Yeah. I like, I like Judkins at 55 more than Scadaboo at 45.
17:49They're, they're back to back for me. And I think very, very similar players who could be awesome in slightly different ways.
17:56Could be really, really awesome. And also could look like Tony Pollard his first year back off of the tight rope surgery.
18:04Uh, Dave, I can't deny the upside for Scadaboo.
18:06I, I look back on how John Harbaugh prefers to play football and you can look before Derek Henry got to Baltimore
18:14and still recognize that running the football a lot was a key component.
18:18For how John Harbaugh wanted to play drafting Francis Mauna Noah in round one is further proof of that.
18:24Scadaboo is, is absolutely the type of running back that I think Harbaugh would love physical, tough, can wear down a defense.
18:31And I don't think they're going to overuse Scadaboo.
18:34It did feel like at times when Scadaboo was healthy, that he was getting overused, but a lot of that was because he was catching the ball.
18:42And I'm hoping that he can keep some of that.
18:46We Jackson dart being able to throw short passes to him absolutely helped the case.
18:51As you talked about Adam, I think I feel more comfortable taking Scadaboo ahead of ADP because I know I can get Tyrone Tracy jr.
18:59And that locks up a Giants run game that I do believe in.
19:03I do think with, I don't necessarily love the guys they have coaching offense this year.
19:08It's, it's this weird Frankenstein group of Matt Nagy, Greg Roman, Brian Callahan.
19:12It's weird because they've all sucked in the past, but at least in the case of Greg Roman, who's going to head
19:19up the run game, he's got a lot of experience having success on the ground.
19:24And I think this is a team that I want to buy into running the ball well this year and Scadaboo is
19:31going to lead it and he's going to have opportunities to score.
19:35And he's kind of fun to watch. And if I've got him in round late round three, early round four, and I
19:42know that's early, it's out of ADP and I can get Tyrone Tracy jr.
19:46Way later. I'm good with that. I'm willing to take my chances with those two running backs holding up one spot in
19:54my starting lineup every week for the season. Okay.
19:56Let's get to round two. So round one was Travion Henderson for Heath Jadarian price for Dave cam Scadaboo for me.
20:03Are you calling it round one? Well, that's our, because we each have three and that was the first one for all three of us.
20:11But we, we didn't draft them. It's not like we were like, okay, my first guy that I'm about worried about about was, it's semantics.
20:19I'm sorry for, for stopping you. Go ahead with round one.
20:23Boy, you, you are, you are the, uh, man, what's the, I don't know.
20:27You're the grapefruit. You're the grapefruit in a fruit salad.
20:31Ooh, is it fruit salad time? No, not yet.
20:33After our second break. Okay. Uh, just an update on the 80 pieces.
20:38Dave also provided the CBS 80 piece. So Travion is going 53rd overall on fantasy pros.
20:43He's actually going 61st overall in CBS ADP right now.
20:46Um, Jadarian price 66th overall on fantasy pros and also 61st overall.
20:50Same as Travion and CBS. Uh, and then Scadaboo 45th overall on fantasy pros and 38th overall in CBS.
20:56Those three guys actually have kind of like fairly big differences in their fantasy pros and ADP and their CBS ADP.
21:03The other guys really don't for the most part, uh, including a Mecca, a Buka number, number two here for Heath.
21:09Definitely not round two, uh, of players you're worried about being wrong about.
21:14He's going 37th overall in fantasy pros as wide receiver, 18 and 36th overall on CBS.
21:19And yeah, I mean, I, I, I think I, I definitely agree that you should be worried about being wrong about a Mecca Buka.
21:26Yeah. And the funny thing is it's, it's not like, I think when, when I first thought about this, I was thinking
21:34it'd probably be guys that I'm like super high on or super low on relative to ADP.
21:39I'm not really with a Buka because I have no idea.
21:43And I am terrified of being wrong both directions.
21:45I can't think of a player who as a rookie in his first nine games was on pace for 76 catches, 1278 yards and 11 touchdowns.
21:54And then finished the season in the second half on pace for 49 catches, 554 yards and zero touchdowns.
22:00Like it was the most Dr. Jekyll and Mr.
22:03And I, maybe, maybe it's wrong to say it was the most like two-sided season.
22:08We see that type of thing with rookies quite often the other way around where they get off to a slow start.
22:15They aren't a full-time player. They earn the role, they earn the targets and we are wheels up into their second season.
22:22And a Buka just went the exact opposite direction.
22:25Some of what he did in the first half of the season and some of what Baker Mayfield did in the first
22:32half of the season seemed a little bit fluky to me at the time.
22:36We talked about that. It was kind of, they'd have a pretty miserable three quarters and then Baker would hit a YOLO
22:43ball to a Buka and everybody had a great day.
22:47And then that just kind of disappeared. Weird. I don't know what to expect from Chris Godwin.
22:52I don't totally know what to expect from Baker Mayfield.
22:55It is a new offense. I am worried and I have a Buka ranked right about the same place.
23:01I am worried that I could feel dumb for passing on him in round two.
23:06And I am worried that I could draft him at the end of round three.
23:11And he's one of the biggest busts of my team.
23:14Well, you'd say passing on a Buka in round two, but no one's taking him in round two.
23:20Right. But I think he's the type of player or maybe early round three.
23:24I think he's the type of player who could certainly give us a top eight wide receiver season and make us wish
23:32that we hadn't taken some of the guys we're taking over him over him.
23:36I'm going to leave it at that because I think Dave David's talked enough.
23:41He really likes a Mecca Buka. I think Dave and I feel like the injury he sustained week six kind of was
23:48sort of the turning point for him. And Baker was getting hurt, too.
23:52Yep. Well, offensive line got beat up. Like, it's terrible to just say, well, injuries.
23:57And that's all we got. But there's also Mike Evans coming back.
24:00And when Evans came back, a Buka, who was already not at 100%, was getting around four targets per game.
24:07That was late in the year. The hope is that he's back around seven and a half targets per game in an
24:14offense that will harness targets to him and to Godwin and then whoever the third guy is from week to week, whether
24:21it's McMillan, Otten, Hurst, the running backs. But he's really good.
24:25He's healthy now. You're betting on talent and you're betting on Baker Mayfield, too.
24:29And I know that that's scary for some people, but we're two seasons removed from Baker having an MVP type year.
24:36Yeah. I think it's too soon to rule out Baker Mayfield being a quarterback that's bad for his receivers at this point.
24:43I wouldn't rule out anything at all with Baker Mayfield.
24:46Okay. Sam Laporta. Everything is possible. Sam Laporta is this is a guy that has a huge difference in his fantasy pros ADP and his CBS ADP.
24:55Whether you like Laporta or not, if he's really going to go 96th overall as he currently is in in fantasy pros
25:02ADP, you should be in on that. That's Sam Laporta who Dave wants to talk about here.
25:07He's actually 69th, though, in CBS ADP. All right, Dave, the floor is yours for Sam Laporta.
25:13You are worried about being wrong about Laporta. There is a range here where Laporta can be back to where he was
25:20as a rookie, averaging 14 PPR points per game.
25:23It's simple. You think about how good of a player he is in spurts.
25:27We've seen it over the last two seasons. We definitely saw it when he was a rookie.
25:33And now you add in Drew Petsing. Heath is really the first one to talk about this this offseason.
25:39I needed to, like, come around on all the data points that Petsing provides.
25:43And it's true. You go back to Simon, Arizona.
25:46And it's not like he was just using one tight end because it was Trey McBride.
25:51He was using multiple tight end sets at a 33% clip each year in Arizona.
25:56And that's not one tight end. That's multiple tight ends.
25:59And they've signed Tyler Conklin in Detroit. I don't think he's going to be a big deal.
26:05But I think it's a signal that they plan on using a lot of multi-tight end sets, in part because I think
26:12they're a little worried about their offensive line not being the same.
26:16And they want to put more big bodies up front.
26:19But when they use play action, call any kind of play pass, yeah, Laporta's going to run a route.
26:25And I think he's going to see his target share go up.
26:29I think it's as simple as good player who's going to play a lot, maybe a little bit more than what we've
26:36seen over the past couple of years, and a target uptick that comes along with it.
26:41Being in on Laporta means being out on JMO.
26:44And JMO is an amazing talent. You heard Scott Turner talk about how Jamison Williams looked amazing at their most recent minicamp.
26:51I've been a big fan of Jamison Williams for a long time.
26:55I think he's a great receiver too. But it's been rare when both of those guys have been good in the same week for fantasy.
27:03And usually it's Laporta who's better than Jamison Williams over the balance of a season.
27:08Just some smash weeks that are better for JMO compared to Laporta.
27:12And bottom line is that I'm okay taking Laporta as soon as round five is over.
27:17If he's on the board and I need a tight end, I have no problem taking him.
27:22I think he's upside to finish as a top four tight end.
27:26I think it's worth noting that in Sam Laporta...
27:29Actually, I'm sorry. Let me just clarify. How do you feel about Laporta and you're worried about being wrong because of JMO?
27:36Being good, basically? If Drew Petsing decides, you know what?
27:39I've been using tight ends a ton in Arizona, but I'm not going to do that here because I've got two amazing wide receivers.
27:47And Laporta is a good tight end, but not a great tight end.
27:51Well, now Laporta isn't getting the 33% target share and the 31% multiple tight end sets.
27:56And he's not on the field as much. And if he's not on the field as much, that means JMO is.
28:03It means more receivers are. It means Isaac Tesla is.
28:06And that just makes Laporta a dud. I would not reach for Laporta.
28:11Where would you take him? I think you've got to wait until round six to get him.
28:16Oh, that's too early for me. Yeah, I dig him in round five.
28:20And I think it's worth remembering. JMO was so awesome after Laporta got hurt.
28:25But when these two guys have been healthy, Sam Laporta has consistently out-targeted Jamison Williams.
28:30And even if for some reason Drew Petsing changed everything he wanted to do and they played three wide receiver sets all
28:37the time, Sam Laporta is still going to be on the field in three wide receiver sets.
28:42He's going to be the tight end on the field.
28:45When they've been healthy, he's out-targeted him. But I don't know if that's entirely true for 2024.
28:51But fine. Let's just say it is. 2024. Okay.
28:542023 was Laporta's rookie season. That was his great year.
28:57Jamison Williams played 12 games and had 42 targets.
29:00The last two years, Sam Laporta has averaged 5.2 and 5.4 targets per game.
29:04It's just not enough. To take a guy in round five or six, it's got to be a lot better than that, I think.
29:12It's got to be better than that. Okay. How many targets do you need for a season to take him in round six?
29:19Six and a half. I think six and a half gets you in round four.
29:245.2 targets per game in 2024. He was at 10.9 PPR points per game.
29:2910.9 PPR points. That's 110 targets for the season.
29:32Right, right, right. And so that's a round four pick.
29:35Well, that's a round. Okay. It's a different philosophy.
29:38I just, I really like, I have a hard time taking tight ends there because I just, I really like wide receivers and running backs.
29:46You know, it's still in that range. So it's like, once you get to, once you get to the nineties in ADP
29:53and all of a sudden you're on wide receiver fours and RB three or fours bench players there.
29:59And you still have starting tight ends and maybe even Sam Laporta, according to fantasy pros, just my philosophy on tight ends.
30:06I can't pass up a wide receiver that I think could have a huge year.
30:11We're talking about that with Colson Loveland in a little bit for Sam Laporta, who might get 110 targets.
30:17And I don't even think he will, because there's no evidence.
30:20Oh, I think he's going to have more than that.
30:23I think, I think he'll have well over that.
30:26Um, I, he had 120 as a rookie. Yeah.
30:29Cause Jamison Williams got 42 targets in 12 games.
30:32Jamo wasn't Jamo as a rookie. He was coming off of an ACL.
30:36Like there, he was a mess. Yeah. I don't know if we can necessarily count that year as fair.
30:42That's what I'm saying there. That's fine. But still, let me, let me just, I was starting to say this 5.2 targets
30:49per game in 2024, 10.9 PPR points per game, 10.9 PPR points per game for a tight end is not bad.
30:56Last year, 5.4 targets per game, 11.9 PPR points for Sam Laporta in nine games.
31:01So if he sees an uptick that puts him to six targets per game, like he thinks that he'll get, then you've
31:08got to imagine that the PPR points will follow.
31:11Yeah. I don't think he can get to the McBride towers tier Bowers, Bowers tier Chris towers, rock towers.
31:17But I think he could be on that second tier.
31:20I think he could finish close to Colson Loveland and Tyler Warren, maybe even better than Tyler Warren.
31:26I think that's part of the upside. Yeah, I think Laporta is a really good player.
31:31I just think that in a full PPR league, now you can convince me in other formats in a full PPR league.
31:38If you think this will change, then great. I'm not sure it will.
31:43I just think he's too inconsistent because I look at his game log and he's got four games out of 10 out
31:50of nine, four games out of nine with fewer, with 7.3 or fewer PPR fantasy points.
31:55And he had four, four, four, and three targets in those games.
31:59I know that when he gets targeted, he's really good.
32:02I know that he's probably going to score touchdowns, but I think there are too many.
32:07To me, there's just too many bad games for Laporta in full PPR specific, even half PPR.
32:12That's where I am. But Dave and Heath are obviously a lot higher on Laporta.
32:17The main thing is you are, and this is not an insult.
32:21It's just the way we are evaluating it. You are completely dismissive of the Stefanski-Petsig tight end target history.
32:27No, I mean, no, it does mean something to me.
32:30It's just, it's just like they never coached a team that had Amon Ross St.
32:35Brown and Jamison Williams. And Jameer Gibbs for that matter, you know, like he's going to command some targets too.
32:42So I don't know what to make of it.
32:45When Trey McBride. Do you think? Yeah. I'm sorry to interrupt you.
32:48No, it's okay. I'm trying to do that less.
32:51So sorry to you and everybody. Do you think that Dan Campbell knew what he was getting into with Drew Petsing?
32:58Yes. And maybe part of why he made Drew Petsing his offensive coordinator is because of the multiple tight ends that he was using in Arizona.
33:06There were not a lot of redeeming qualities to Drew Petsing based on what we saw from Arizona the last couple of years.
33:14And yet he failed upwards to the Lions play calling gig.
33:17There's a reason for that. It's because of the tight end usage.
33:21And I think Campbell wants it. I'm good with Laporta in round six.
33:25Okay. Yeah. So that let me go to Colson Loveland then on this subject here and we'll get to DJ Moore next.
33:32So, oh man, Loveland is so good. I'm currently out on Colson Loveland as a round four pick.
33:38I could be convinced in a two receiver league to take him there.
33:42I just wish there was more of a resume for Loveland, who is the number three tight end off the board, 42nd
33:50overall in Fantasy Pros, 41st overall in CBS ADP.
33:52And no one's doubting his talent. And obviously DJ Moore is not there, even though DJ Moore really didn't do much last year.
34:00Didn't even have 100 targets. He had 82 targets or something like that.
34:04So I'm worried about being wrong because Colson Loveland might be a superstar.
34:08I was surprised when the Bears drafted him ahead of Tyler Warren.
34:12I think it was perfectly justifiable. They both had great seasons, but Loveland, you know, Loveland's awesome.
34:18He was tight end 18 per game in full PPR, tight end 13 per game in non-PPR.
34:23It's not a team that is probably going to be pretty run heavy.
34:27They're probably going to run a lot of plays, so that should get the pass attempts up, but they are likely going to be pretty run heavy.
34:36We should keep that in mind. But one thing that concerns me with Loveland is his ADOT.
34:41We've seen this with Kyle Pitts. You can't, you cannot, no, I shouldn't say you can't.
34:46It's hard to be a reliable tight end in fantasy with one of the highest ADOTs at the position.
34:53He had the second highest ADOT at the position.
34:55He also had almost no screen passes last year.
34:58And I went back and I looked at the top five per game tight ends over the last five seasons.
35:05And a lot of that, like, Trey McBride averaged 1.5 screen passes per game last year.
35:10Colson Lover averaged 0.19. No one was lower. In the last five years, no one averaged fewer than 0.5 screen passes per
35:17game and finished as a top five tight end.
35:20So there's a degree of difficulty to the profile of Colson Loveland.
35:24He is a downfield guy that last year, for what it could change this year, but last year got no layups.
35:30We like long balls and layups. He got no layups.
35:34So that might be difficult to repeat. And taking him 42nd overall, when we've got really good players on the board at
35:41that point, and he has like six games of a resume, basically.
35:45It's a little concerning to me, but yeah, I don't want to be wrong about the next great NFL tight end.
35:51You selfishly sent your picks in immediately after you gave us the topic for the show.
35:57So you got to choose players first. I think Colson Loveland is the perfect guy for the way that I kind of
36:04viewed this in that I could feel dumb for being too high or too low on Colson Loveland.
36:09This bears pass attack. Getting it right is one of the keys, I think, to winning your fantasy football league in 2026.
36:16Because they've got, right now, I have Luther Burden, Roma Dunze, and Colson Loveland all just projected for a 22% target share.
36:24Because I really have no idea who's going to lead this team in targets.
36:28And that puts Colson Loveland in the round 3-4 discussion for me, like right at the 3-4 turn.
36:34It could be that it's Roma Dunze. It could be that Luther Burden dominates targets.
36:39But the point really is somebody's going to. That gives all three of them like 120 targets.
36:44Someone's saying, are we saying that he was such a good receiver last year that he can't be good again?
36:51Well, no, not at all. But keep in mind, he wasn't a good receiver for all of last year.
36:57He was only a good receiver down the stretch.
37:00And that's not because he wasn't good. It's because he wasn't playing long enough.
37:04But he wasn't playing enough early in the year.
37:07Also, Roma Dunze got hurt. And that unlocked a lot of things for him and for Luther Burden.
37:13But my point is just he's a downfield guy.
37:16Now, a 9-yard ADOT is not high for a wide receiver.
37:19It's very high for a tight end. And you could worry about his catch rate going down.
37:25You could worry about not getting a lot of yak.
37:28You could worry just about these cheap fantasy points that other tight ends are getting.
37:33Remember the Johnnie Smith season? Johnnie Smith got a ton of screen passes.
37:37These cheap fantasy points that other tight ends are getting that he just isn't.
37:41So I'm just saying over a full season, I don't know what to expect from a guy with a 9-yard ADOT because
37:48Kyle Pitts, I think, really struggled with that. And Pitts has had his ADOT lower the last two years.
37:55And he's had more easy targets. And he's been a more consistent fantasy option.
37:59It certainly could happen for Colson Lovellam, by the way.
38:02I'm not saying that he's going to have the same profile.
38:06But that concerns me. It's just there are some things that make me go, 40-second overall, I don't think I can do it with Colson Lovellam.
38:14One of the things I like to look at with these rookies who have the late, late-ish breakouts is like when did they become a full-time player?
38:23And he didn't play 80% of the offensive snaps until week 8.
38:27From week 8 on, he played 13 games. He had 62 catches for 828 yards and 7 touchdowns in a 13-game season.
38:34So good. And does that conclude the playoffs? That includes the playoffs, yes.
38:38Yeah, because he was so good in the playoffs too.
38:41Yeah, that's why I'm worried. You should be worried because the downside could be that he's third on the team in targets,
38:48but I have a hard time buying that. I see how this tight end did as a rookie when he was healthy
38:55and when he was really understanding what they were asking him to do.
38:59And the numbers that he just gave out tell you the story.
39:03I think he's Chicago's top target getter. I think he's the number one receiver in this offense.
39:09And there are going to be multiple people in every single fantasy draft that think that way about Colson Loveland.
39:15And if that's the case, you're going to see him go in the first four rounds.
39:20Yeah. You're taking a chance. There's no question about it.
39:24But I don't see it where he falls back and it's Romo Dunze and Luther Burden leading this team.
39:30And taking DJ Moore out of the equation, he did this when DJ Moore was part of the equation last year.
39:36And now DJ Moore and his 85 targets are in Buffalo.
39:40It's just, man, every year two tight end recently has disappointed us, right?
39:44Everyone that we've been excited about, whether it was Bowers because of injury or Kyle Pitts.
39:49I think they drafted Drake London and had just terrible quarterback situation.
39:53And Sam Laporta took a step back. It's just, they've all disappointed us.
39:57But put it this way out. McBride's breakout was year two, wasn't it?
40:02Second half of year two? Yeah. I don't think he was drafted that year.
40:06Yeah. I will not. If I have one team, I'm probably not drafting Sam Laporta 40, or Colson Loveland 42nd.
40:12But I'll have 10 or 11 teams. And I definitely will draft Sam Laporta because I will be going against my own
40:20gut just to make sure I have some of him.
40:23Because you're- I keep saying Laporta. I'm sorry. I meant Loveland.
40:26Go ahead. You're not really in on Luther Burden either, right?
40:30I mean, I think he's- Everything I said about Loveland, you could just apply to Burden.
40:35Not the stats, but the theory. So are you just kind of out on the Bears passing game?
40:41No. I'm hoping that Romo Dunze falls to, you know, maybe the sixth round or something, and I can get that.
40:48But they're all priced pretty high, including Caleb Williams.
40:50I really don't like Caleb's ADP. I think he should be more like around eight or nine.
40:56Well, no. I think I'd be comfortable taking him there because there are some other really good quarterbacks going there.
41:02But as I recall, he's like a round seven pick, kind of in the Bo Nix.
41:07He's going 70th overall. He's QB six. It's like Bo Nix last year.
41:12I was like, yeah, I get it, but I'm not taking him because there are too many good quarterbacks I can get later.
41:19That's how I feel about Caleb. But no, it sucks.
41:22I don't want to be out on them. I just tweeted about this earlier today because I was like, we talk about concentrated targets a lot of times.
41:31And this could be where I go wrong on the Bears and just being too excited about all of them.
41:38But they are one of four teams that I have their top three players projected for 66% of the team's targets at least.
41:45So it's London, Pitts, Bijon, Munra, Laporta, Jamo, Jefferson, Addison, Hawkins, and Byrd and Odunze, Loveland.
41:50Obviously, we're not very excited about Addison and Hawkinson.
41:53So it could be a situation where they do that and it's just there's only one of them that's really great.
42:00But the difference is we think Jefferson could have a 27, 28% target share.
42:04If none of these three guys do that, then they can all three be really, really good.
42:10Just none of them worth a pick in round two.
42:13Yeah. Heath, have you looked into how many times a team has had two-thirds of their targets go to three players?
42:20I have not. I wonder how rare or not rare that is.
42:24Well, I think it's rare probably, like, it's really hard to calculate because how often do teams have their top three pass catchers play 17 games?
42:32And so then you get into the messiness of, like, when did they have two-thirds of the targets when they were all healthy?
42:39Yeah. But, yeah, I could try to... Yeah. That seems like it would take a lot of work.
42:45All right. Let's take a little break here. Heath will get it figured out in the next 30 seconds over the commercial break.
42:53We got fruit salad talk and one more player from each of us to discuss after this.
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43:30That's code podcast at gruns.co. Grapes, pineapple, cantaloupe, strawberries.
43:33Those are my four. You totally messed it up.
43:36Well, listen, I don't think that cantaloupe is not one of my four favorite fruits, but in a fruit salad, I think it's pretty much a must.
43:45I love cantaloupe, but I think you can't, there are certain fruit salads that cantaloupe fits really well in.
43:51Yeah, who's putting grapes, pineapple, and cantaloupe together? Me.
43:54Like you've got to build a salad that's cohesive.
43:57So I would go with watermelon, strawberry, blueberry, and purple grapes.
44:00Yeah, purple grapes for me as well. All right, so we both have strawberries and grapes, but you have watermelon and blueberries.
44:07I have pineapple and cantaloupe. Yeah, that's it. Yeah, that's the most bipolar fruit salad I've ever heard of in my life.
44:14I think those are just kind of fruit salad staples in my opinion, but Dave, go ahead.
44:20I mean, I just want a fruit salad that's got my four favorite fruits in it.
44:25So give me peaches, pears, bananas, pineapple. All right, so like more of a tropical fruit salad.
44:30I don't give a damn if it's tropical or from Alaska.
44:34Well, I do. Those are my favorite fruits. Give me.
44:37Eric's asked about cherries, and I like cherries, but I like when I'm having a fruit salad to be able to eat it all with the same instrument.
44:46And the cherry, I've got to, like if you're eating a fruit salad that you eat with your hands, then cherries are fine.
44:53But I don't want to be eating my fruit salad with a fork, and then I have to set the fork down
45:01and pick up the cherry and then spit the seed somewhere.
45:04Yeah, the thing is- Is the cherry seedless? If you're having a fruit salad, it's almost certainly at some type of social event, right?
45:12No one's just like eating fruit salad at home usually.
45:15Oh, we eat fruit salad at home all the time.
45:18I have fruit salad for lunch today. Get out of here with me.
45:22All right, well, I'm picturing it as part of like a platter at an event.
45:27You're not going to serve cherries there because then you're going to make people, you're going to make people spit their pits somewhere.
45:35It's disgusting. Cherries are a personal fruit. Not to be eaten in public.
45:39All right, round three, or next grouping of players.
45:42I didn't know eating cherries was so private for you, Adam.
45:45It's disgusting. I don't want to see your pits, your cherry pits, Dave.
45:49Revolting! Brock Bowers going 20th overall in Fantasy Pros, 25th overall in CBS ADP.
45:54Let's call it at the one-two turn. Heath is worried about being wrong about Brock Bowers.
45:59I was so high on Brock Bowers last year.
46:02And he was awesome, and I think he's awesome.
46:05And I haven't changed my opinion about him, but my opinion about the position has changed so much that I can't draft
46:12him as high as I wanted to last year.
46:15And then the other side of it is this whole Gary Kubiak thing, or Clint Kubiak thing, thank goodness, where he just like spam targets to JSN.
46:24I think it's possible that happens with Brock Bowers, but they are so different in terms of like how they play that I can't make that one-to-one transfer.
46:33And so I'm worried that I'm going to be sad that I was a year too early on Brock Bowers.
46:39You're too early on Brock. Yeah, okay. Yeah, it's a lot to invest.
46:43A lot to invest a pick at the one-two turn on Bowers.
46:47And I think it really does come down to how you feel about Laporta, Pitts, Loveland, like the other guys.
46:53McBride too, of course. But man, if he goes, like as Jamie was saying with McBride, if he goes 15 fantasy points
47:01per game, and we've got five guys that score 13, and two of them are available in round six or seven, I'm
47:08not going to feel very good about drafting him in round two either.
47:12I would just even extend it to, how do you feel about the guys even behind that group?
47:18You know, you might like Isaiah Likely and Kelsey and Dallas Goddard without A.J.
47:22Brown, and you might actually feel like it's a deep position.
47:26He might be less inclined to take Bowers or McBride or whoever early.
47:30Dave, the Pittsburgh running backs, this is interesting. So where do you stand on the Pittsburgh running backs who Warren is going
47:3727th and Dowdle 33rd at running back. Warren going 22 picks earlier than Dowdle, 70th overall for Warren, 92nd overall for Dowdle.
47:44They are much closer in CBS. Sorry, they're almost back-to-back in CBS ADP, 75th for Warren, 79th for Rico Dowdle.
47:50But how are you feeling about them, and what are you concerned about being wrong about?
47:55I love the value for Dowdle. I've got them very close to each other in my rankings.
48:01I've got Warren as a top 30 running back, 80th overall, and Dowdle 31st at the position, 85th overall.
48:07So obviously very close to each other in that round 7-8 turn range.
48:11I can't help but notice the career of Rico Dowdle that started in Dallas with Mike McCarthy, who kept Dowdle around for
48:18several years, even when Dowdle was hurt, and then gave Dowdle a major opportunity in 2024 that helped Dowdle get paid in
48:252025 when McCarthy was out of the league. And now here we are in 2026, Dowdle one of the first acquisitions that
48:32Mike McCarthy has when he goes to Pittsburgh. And I'm not saying that he's going to do what Kenny Gainwell did, but
48:40I am saying that there's a chance he does a lot of what Jalen Warren can do.
48:45And before the show started, I looked at some of the numbers.
48:49Warren's avoided tackle rate was really good compared to Rico Dowdle's, but Warren inside the five, he had a 28.6% success rate.
48:56That means he didn't score a lot of touchdowns from inside the five.
49:00Dowdle was at 75% last year, 40% the year before.
49:03I think I know who's going to get the ball inside the five.
49:08They were both within one catch of each other and within 0.1 targets per game of each other each of the past two years.
49:15That obviously includes the one year in Dallas, McCarthy and Dowdle together.
49:19McCarthy knows what Dowdle can do. Dowdle knows what McCarthy's going to ask of the running backs in this offense.
49:26I am scared that this becomes an annoying split where there isn't necessarily a running downs back, a passing downs back, but
49:33more of a Warren, you've got the first drive.
49:35Dowdle, you've got the second drive. And then they kind of take it from there.
49:40I don't have a problem saying that Warren is the more explosive player.
49:44Obviously, I like him a little bit better. I've got him ranked higher, but I bet it's going to be close and annoying with these two guys.
49:53And it makes me kind of want to avoid them unless I'm doing a zero RB build.
49:59Interesting. I think what's encouraging for me is that Warren had 40 catches last year and he wasn't even the third down back.
50:06Gainwell was. Who do you think will be the third down back?
50:10Warren or Dowdle? I just told you, I don't think there will be.
50:14I think you're going to see a drive. Well, you said you were worried about that.
50:19Well, sure. But I mean, I can't say for sure that it's going to go out that way.
50:25But Dowdle's been a pretty good pass catch. I don't know how many third downs he's played in his career or specifically in Dallas.
50:33That's probably something I should have looked at before.
50:36I think last year he was the third down back for Carolina.
50:39I think so. I don't know if they, I don't, you give me a few minutes, I can tell you.
50:46How badly do you want to know? I think I have it in my notes somewhere.
50:51But, um, no. All right. So yeah, it is, it is.
50:55Your point is taken that they, they could be entered except for the goal line, where I think it certainly makes sense that it's Dowdle.
51:03Their roles could be interchangeable. That's fair to us.
51:06That's kind of what you're saying. Sure. I love that Aaron Rogers throws those running backs a thousand times.
51:12It's that's another thing. I don't know how much that's going to happen now that they've added Pittman and Bernard to their receiving core.
51:19Their receiving group is better this year than it was last year.
51:23And I don't think they're going to ask those guys to run 15 plus yards downfield that much.
51:29I think you're going to see a lot of hitch and slant routes from Pittman and Bernard.
51:34And those guys are going to get peppered with short throws.
51:38Rogers is still going to get the ball out pretty quick.
51:42They're going to play at a better pace than last year.
51:45That's part of Mike McCarthy's history, but I don't think that necessarily means it's going to lead to a ton of targets and catches to running backs.
51:54I bet there's going to be a drop back there.
51:57I've got snap counts for third downs for both Dowdle and Warren each of the last three seasons.
52:03Well, but it's not percentages. I don't have percentages.
52:06It's just raw numbers. Last year, last year, Dowdle was playing more snaps on third down than Hubbard until the last four
52:13games of the year when Hubbard got nearly every third down snap, but Dowdle had like twice as many carries in the last four games, but whatever.
52:21Uh, yeah, they, they both have experience doing it.
52:24They both could. And it's, it's interesting. So right now you, right now you would take Warren where and Dowdle where round
52:31seven, eight turn for both Warren first and full PPR.
52:35Okay. Last guy, uh, I'm worried about being wrong about is DJ more.
52:39I am in on DJ more. He is currently 55th overall in fantasy pros, 52nd overall in CBS ADP on fantasy pros.
52:46DJ more is wide receiver. For 27. I love the setup here.
52:50Clearly should be the number one target for Josh Allen.
52:53Um, we've seen him have good seasons in the past.
52:56I don't think, I don't think I have to struggle to sort of make the case for DJ more, but here's why I'm worried about being wrong.
53:05He's 29, which I don't think is old for a hall of fame level receiver.
53:10You know, for a great receiver, 29 is perfectly fine, but for a guy like DJ more, it might be old.
53:16His yards per hour run rate has been abysmal two seasons in a row.
53:21Buffalo has been 25th and 26 and pass attempts the last two years.
53:25They have been very run heavy under Joe Brady, who's now the head coach and DJ more has been in the league eight seasons.
53:33He's been top 24 per game twice. You could make the argument basically every year of his career that he was on a bad offense until last year.
53:42And last year, he just stunk. I mean, he just barely got any targets.
53:46He had one of the lowest target per out run rates of any wide receiver with 50 or more targets last year.
53:53So I don't, I don't know that. I don't know how good DJ more is.
53:58I've often called him the most, what I said, the most confusing player in fantasy football, right?
54:04Just look at his career, but the last two years are bad, really bad.
54:08Now everyone was bad in 2024 for Chicago. Keenan Allen, Romo Dunze, DJ more, Caleb Williams.
54:13They were all bad, but last year was a different story.
54:17I don't know why DJ more was targeted so little.
54:20Anyway, can he, can he snap out of it?
54:23The other thing is Kalil Shakir is not that bad.
54:26Kalil Shakir is a solid player. He's, he's their slot guy.
54:30He's got a four yard eight odd. He's going to get his targets.
54:34Dalton Kinkade. He's finally feels healthy. He's not that bad.
54:37So I think DJ more is going to lead them in targets, but honestly, based on their past volume, that could be 115 targets.
54:45Could be less. So I'm excited about the opportunity.
54:48I can talk a little bit more about why later.
54:51I'll let you guys discuss, but DJ more just, he might not be that good anymore.
54:56And they throw the ball so little, or they have in the last two years that it, there are, there are reasons to be concerned.
55:04Heath. I think DJ more is one of those guys that I have apparently ranked ahead of his ADP.
55:10And I think I have clicked his name approximately zero times this summer.
55:14So yeah, everything you said, I pretty much agree with.
55:18It seems like it could be a good opportunity.
55:20If the offensive coordinator who's called all these run plays last two years decides to change his stripes, or if DJ more,
55:28who listen, I think there was a little bit of AJ Brown and DJ more last year as well.
55:34Like he, he wasn't exactly finishing all of his routes or super happy all the time.
55:39And which he's had a problem with that throughout his career.
55:42So what, how much does the connection that Josh Allen already has with Khalil Shakir and Dalton, Kincaid matter when it comes to the target share?
55:51And how does DJ more respond? If it's a one, a one B one C situation, and they're all getting six targets a game, five targets a game.
56:00Dave, what do you think? I think Joe Brady brought DJ more to Buffalo because Joe Brady trusts DJ more.
56:06They work together in Carolina more. I believe had one of his best seasons under Joe Brady.
56:12Don't quote me on that. Yeah, I think you're right.
56:15But I, I remember seeing after the bears, I told you guys this after the bears bills training camp scrimmage, Joe Brady,
56:22who I'm chasing down to talk to made a beeline for DJ more and spent 15 minutes catching up with DJ more.
56:29And then now here we are almost a year later, DJ more's in Buffalo.
56:33They needed a receiver. They needed a number one guy.
56:37And just like Dowdle with McCarthy, DJ more knows what Joe Brady's going to ask him to do.
56:42I do want to give you the list of Buffalo wide receivers with Josh Allen, who've averaged 15 or more PPR points per game.
56:50I know what it is. It's Stefan digs. And then there was Stefan digs followed by Stefan digs.
56:56And then Stefan digs. Yeah, but he was forced for years, times, nine targets per game.
57:01Each time. Do we even think that DJ more gets seven targets per game, much less nine targets per game.
57:08And there's been a couple of bills receivers who've been around 13 PPR points per game with seven targets per game.
57:14Cole Beasley was one of those guys once upon a time, John Brown with Josh Allen was that guy.
57:20And so I think if you look at DJ more and you say, okay, this guy should probably be able pencil them
57:27in for 12 and a half to 13 PPR points per game.
57:31I think he'll deliver. I don't think he's going to deliver like Stefan digs.
57:36Are you cool taking a wide receiver with that type of expectation in round five?
57:41That's the question only you can answer. It sounds like mostly Adam's just scared.
57:45I mean, scared, scared to take the high upside guys.
57:48And, uh, DJ more is just a nice, safe, potentially wet blanket for your, a wide receiver to slot.
57:55I don't think he has to be though. I mean, here, here's what I like about DJ more.
58:00Um, the touchdown potential. So if I could find the, uh, okay.
58:04Khalil Shakir has played four seasons. He has six end zone targets in four seasons.
58:09Dalton Kincaid has played three seasons. He has 11 end zone targets in three seasons, 41 games.
58:14Um, in 2023, Gabe Davis had 15 end zone targets and Stefan digs had 10.
58:19DJ more has four seasons with double digit end zone targets.
58:23My point is he's walking into a room that doesn't have a guy that gets consistent green zone and end zone targets.
58:30And even though the bills don't pass a lot, they have been about league average in yards, passing yards over the last two years.
58:38And they've been seventh in passing touchdowns. You should probably expect at least 30 touchdowns.
58:42He wasn't on pace for it last year, but 28 or more touchdowns from Josh Allen.
58:48Um, so I think, you know, DJ more could probably score eight, eight or more touchdowns.
58:53And if he does that, he's going to almost certainly be worth around five pick.
58:58I really liked that for him. And it's, I don't think it's out of the question that, that they throw, you know,
59:05they're 23rd and past attempts, 22nd and past attempts.
59:07And DJ more just has a really good season.
59:10And what did, what did, uh, Scott Turner say about him?
59:14Cause he coached DJ more. He said, he's running faster than it looks, right?
59:18Cause a lot of people think he's dogging it out there.
59:22Right. But he's just, he's a glider. He, he, you, he doesn't look like he's putting all the effort in, but he
59:29is, and he's faster than he looks. And also he's going to be really good on Josh Allen's improv plays.
59:35That's what Scott said. So, um, I'm in on him in round five.
59:40I'm actually excited about it. I'm a little worried that he's not that good of a player, but you look at the players going there.
59:48Like there, there aren't a lot of sure things at that point.
59:52So I'm, I'm very comfortable taking him. I struggle with him and Mike Evans.
59:56Uh, I think I would go with Evans, but I, I, I really liked DJ more this year.
60:02There you go. All right. Well, I'm going to go have some, I'm literally going to go have some cherries by myself,
60:09the privacy of my own home, where I will spit the pits directly into the doors, make sure no one can come
60:16in, maybe light a candle, put on some Barry white.
60:19Tomorrow's show is a topic to be determined and try to figure out something fun today to talk about tomorrow.
60:26And our show is going to be early. It's going to be 9 a.m.
60:30Eastern. So for those of you who like to watch, uh, I'll bring the cherries.
60:35Maybe it should be players. We're willing to take early since we're recording it early.
60:40Players are willing to reach for it. It's not bad.
60:43It's an idea. Or it could just be something we already, I already talked about a couple of them today.
60:49I know that we want to do that. Um, all right.
60:53See y'all later. See you tomorrow on fantasy football.
60:56Podcasts on a new season of SkyMed. I need fluids and an ambulance standing by.
61:01The crew balances new responsibilities, new rescues and new recruits.
61:04We take care of our own clear. Clear. SkyMed new season.
61:07Now streaming on Paramount plus. life's. ーOh yeah.
