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1:33Updated breakouts from Heath Cummings right now on Fantasy Football Today Express.
1:37All right, what's up, everybody? Welcome to the show.
1:40So, Heath just published his updated breakouts last week.
1:43Let's recap some, maybe all of them. Who do you want to start with?
1:47Let's start with the tight ends. It would be unfamiliar to no one who's been listening to our show, but I do
1:55think Sam Laporta, Kyle Pitts, Isaiah Likely, all three have an opportunity to have career years with new offensive coordinators who have
2:02traditionally thrown the ball to tight ends a lot.
2:05Laporta's already been, I think, the tight end one overall one season, but I think he has a chance to be better
2:13than the 14 points per game that is his career high.
2:17And probably nerf Jamison Williams in the process. Kyle Pitts, like, I think part of, like, the Kyle Pitts has been an enormous disappointment, is overblown.
2:25He has the fourth most receiving yards amongst tight ends since he entered the NFL.
2:30He's very good. He has a better offensive play caller for tight ends than Kevin Stefanski now.
2:36He could be a top five tight end, and then Isaiah Likely finally getting a chance to be a full-time player.
2:43Again, going to follow his former head coach with Matt Nagy coming in, who's run the Andy Reid offense the past few years.
2:51Could be the number two target on the Giants.
2:54All right, so Sam Laporta at tight end seven.
2:57Kyle Pitts is tight end eight. I'm looking at Fantasy Pros ADP.
3:01Both those guys are going pretty late in the 90s.
3:05They are the reason I cannot draft Trey McBride or Brock Bowers in round two or early round three.
3:11Because I don't think the gap's big enough for a five-round difference in ADP.
3:16And then Likely's round 11. He's tight end 13.
3:19Take two of these guys. Okay. And I don't, I mean, I'm just surprised.
3:23Let me just real check draft sharks real quick.
3:26I'm really surprised to see Laporta that low in the 90s.
3:30But let me see if, yeah, he's 80, he's 85th on draft sharks.
3:35So that's the first pick of round eight. That's pretty damn good.
3:39I mean, I feel like he goes in round six, maybe seven of our drafts.
3:44So good stuff there on Sam Laporta. All right, who's next in your breakouts list?
3:49Jaden Daniels with the re-breakout. Average 23 fantasy points per game as a rookie.
3:54Could lead quarterbacks in rushing yards. Terry McLaurin and he should both be healthy this year.
3:59I think Chigo Conquo gives him a little more after the catch than Zach Ertz did.
4:04Jaden Daniels, I was way too high on him last year and he got hurt and it stunk.
4:10But I still think he has the potential in a given season, maybe it's not this season, to be the number one quarterback in fantasy.
4:19Jaden Daniels only played 100% of the snaps four times.
4:22Only had four games where he played, you know, pretty much every snap.
4:27Even if you, the other games, he didn't even come close to that.
4:31It wasn't like he had a 96% game. In those four games, he averaged 23 fantasy points per game, 23.1 to be exact.
4:39And that was with zero rushing touchdowns. So I love this one.
4:43And maybe you could say he's the reason why I never draft Josh Allen or something like that.
4:49Or Lamar Jackson, you know. I almost said I wouldn't be surprised on, I wouldn't be surprised show.
4:55But I wouldn't be surprised if he was better than Drake May this year.
5:00But I didn't think that was bold enough. But I wouldn't be.
5:04All right, what's next? The three second-year running backs.
5:07And everybody has one or two of these guys as their breakouts probably.
5:11But Omari and Hampton with Mike McDaniel there, that's a fantastic situation for him.
5:16Ashton Gentey with Quint Kubiak there, that's a fantastic situation for him.
5:20Quint Sean Judkins, I just recently said on a show that I wouldn't be surprised if he led the NFL in rush attempts.
5:28These guys do it in different ways. I think Gentey and Hampton obviously have a lot more pass-catching upside.
5:34I think Judkins is probably going to have a lot larger share of his team's rush attempts, though, and may score more rushing touchdowns than the other guys.
5:44Some people have felt like the rookie running back class was a disappointment.
5:48As rookies, I think we'll feel much better about them after year two.
5:52I saw an amazing stat on ESPN. So for Ashton Gentey, since 2010, we've had 737 seasons in which a running back
6:00has had 100 carries, at least 100 carries. So 737 times we've had a running back with 100 more carries since 2010.
6:07If you look at yards before contact, the average yards before contact, Ashton Gentey's season last year ranked 734th out of 737 running backs.
6:15That is a massive offensive line problem. I hope it's better.
6:19Should be with Linderbaum. I think we can say for sure it's better.
6:24We don't know how much better. Right. Exactly. Exactly.
6:27But he's obviously going to be expensive. People are expecting a big bounce back from Gentey and Heath included.
6:33All right, we'll take a break and get a few more breakouts after this.
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7:28Potential savings will vary. So, we've got three tight ends, three running backs, and who's the middle?
7:34Oh, Jaden Daniels. All right. Anyone else you want to talk about here?
7:38We've got a couple wide receivers. I'm not sure Rashi Rice should actually count, but he's never finished better than wide receiver
7:4527 in total fantasy points in a year. So, I do think that we have to, the fact that the Chiefs really
7:53did nothing to add target competition for him means that the past three seasons, when he's been a top 12 wide receiver
8:00in parts of each season, should be our full season expectation.
8:04He actually comes out at wide receiver five in my projections, and he has the chance to be a top two or
8:11three guy if he plays 17 games. Yeah. It is just making him do it over a full season.
8:18Mm-hmm. Jamie didn't really seem bothered by this stat that I gave on Friday's show on CBS Sports Network, but he had
8:25three games last year against the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos, and he did not crack.
8:30I think the most points he scored was 12.4.
8:33And in every other game, he was over 18 fantasy points per game.
8:38The Chiefs have, he's got a pretty tough schedule.
8:41Obviously, he faces the Chargers and the Broncos twice.
8:44I don't remember if they play the Texans, but he's got a tough schedule, a lot of good corners.
8:50Does it bother you at all to see him with a difficult schedule?
8:55I don't like it, and maybe it's a reason to take Drake London over him, but I don't think my questions about
9:02Rushy Rice's schedule are as pressing as my questions about Drake London's quarterback.
9:06What about your questions about Rushy Rice's quarterback? Do you have any of those?
9:11Not for himself, yes. Patrick Mahomes was on my bust list because my expectation is we're going to get to training camp,
9:19and he's going to be healthy, and everybody's going to start drafting him to be Patrick Mahomes.
9:24But the reason I'm not excited about him is because I think the rushing could disappear, and I don't think that's worse for Rushy Rice.
9:33Okay, fair point. Is that it? Last wide receiver, Luther Burden.
9:37He's a top 20 wide receiver. His 2.71 yards per route run was one of the best marks ever last year.
9:44DJ Moore's gone. Elaminate Zagias, he shouldn't have mattered anyways, but he's gone.
9:48Hopefully, Caleb Williams takes a step in his second year with Ben Johnson.
9:52I think it's possible if they just really concentrate this target share that Burden, Odunze, and Loveland could all be good.
9:59But Burden and Loveland looked like much more efficient pass catchers last year than what we've gotten from Odunze so far, so
10:07those are the guys I want to bet on.
10:10Okay, I'm just going to check one thing here.
10:13I wanted to know how you feel about a team that ran, I think they ran the second most plays.
10:20But now I'm looking at the year before, the Lions ran the most plays.
10:24And the year before that, the Lions ran the second most plays.
10:29So that's pretty good in terms of Ben Johnson's track record with running a lot of places.
10:34Do you project that for the Bears? I have them projected to be amongst the league leaders.
10:40I always regress that play volume a little bit in the projections because it's not super sticky year over year, but it's been pretty sticky for Ben Johnson.
10:50I think he's, yeah, that is a definite factor.
10:53His offenses have averaged 1,119 plays per season. Last year, the NFL median was 1,052, so it's almost a full game's worth of plays more than average.
11:02You know what? I think I'm, I had the, I was doing the wrong search, but it ended up giving me basically the same results.
11:10Okay, so each of the last three seasons, Ben Johnson's offenses were first or second in plays run.
11:16Yep. Be cool. Thank you, Heath. Thank you all for watching and listening.
11:21This is Fantasy Football Today Express. We will talk to you next time on FFG.
11:26Podcasts.