PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Favorite ADP Values and Some Big News (06/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 8, 2026
Published
Mon, June 8, 2026
16
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock PurdyChristian WatsonJordan AddisonKyle PittsNico CollinsChuba HubbardDavante AdamsJalen HurtsJayden HigginsJayden ReedJustin Herbert
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Purdy
PositiveProjection1:30
Brock Purdy has finished as a top 6 quarterback per game in two of the last three seasons and is currently being drafted as QB14, which is undervalued given his performance.
Insight pagePositiveMatchup1:48
Purdy faces a tough schedule this season, including matchups against the Rams and Seahawks, which could impact his fantasy production.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue0:04
Christian Watson is currently being drafted as wide receiver 27, 55th overall, which is a value considering his potential to break into the back end of the wide receiver one range this season.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:36
Watson finished as wide receiver 13 per game in non-PPR and had a 19% target share from weeks 8 through 17, indicating strong potential for the upcoming season.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveRole0:44
Chuba Hubbard is expected to start the season with the majority of touches in the backfield, indicating a significant role early in the season.
Insight pageDavante Adams
PositiveValue0:40
Devante Adams is expected to be a focal point in the offense, but there are questions about the overall effectiveness of the passing game.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeValue2:03
If Jalen Hurts is not on the Eagles next year, his fantasy value is likely to drop significantly, potentially by five to six spots in dynasty rankings.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
PositiveBreakout0:13
Jaden Higgins could have a breakout season, having shown potential with a stretch of games where he received a significant number of targets.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveBreakout0:36
Jaden Reed has received a significant contract extension, indicating the Packers' commitment to him and suggesting potential for a breakout season.
Insight pageJordan Addison
PositiveProjection0:21
Addison showed potential with Carson Wentz, being on pace for over 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns during weeks four through eight.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:21
Jordan Addison is currently being drafted as wide receiver 45, which is consistent with his performance last year where he finished 45th overall.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveRole2:10
Justin Herbert is viewed favorably, with the potential to thrive in a strong offensive system, especially with a healthy offensive line.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveProjection0:28
Kyle Pitts is projected to receive over 100 targets in the upcoming season, making him a potential top five tight end.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:28
Kyle Pitts is currently being drafted at 95th overall, which is considered a bargain for a player with his potential.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue2:18
Nico Collins was wide receiver 11 on a per-game basis last year and is currently being drafted around the 2-3 turn, making him a solid value pick.
Insight pagePositiveProjection2:30
Despite injury concerns, Collins is expected to perform well this season, with a strong chance of finishing as a top 12 wide receiver.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co-founder of Angie, and one thing I've learned is that you buy a house, but you make it a home.
0:07Because with every fix, update, and renovation, it becomes a little more your own.
0:12So you need all your jobs done well. For nearly 30 years, Angie has helped millions of homeowners hire skilled pros for the projects that matter.
0:20From plumbing to electrical, roof repair to deck upgrades.
0:22So leave it to the pros who will get your jobs done well.
0:26Angie, the one you trust to find the ones you trust.
0:30Find a pro for your project at Angie.com. As a woman entrepreneur, you know that every connection counts, whether it's with your customers, your team, or your community.
0:38Spectrum Business is here to help you build those connections stronger and faster.
0:42Imagine running your business with fast, reliable, fiber-powered internet so you can stay connected to customers, employees, and vendors without having to worry.
0:49We know flexibility matters. That's why select Spectrum Business packages come with a three-year price guarantee.
0:54So you can focus on running your business. Plus, enjoy savings on internet, phone, TV, and mobile services when you bundle.
1:01All with a 30-day money-back guarantee and no long-term contracts.
1:04With Spectrum Business, you get more than just internet.
1:07You get support with 100% U.S.-based customer service. Real people who understand small business.
1:11Ready 24-7 to help you stay up and running.
1:14Join millions of business owners like you across America who trust Spectrum Business for reliability, speed, and support.
1:19Visit Spectrum.com slash business today to get started. Restrictions apply.
1:22Service is not available in all areas. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
1:27What a play! It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
1:30Off to the races! And he stays on his feet!
1:33Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
1:36Happy Monday, everybody! Another week of Fantasy Football Talk here on Fantasy Football Today.
1:40Four episodes for you. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. And if there's any breaking news, get ready for the bonus pods.
1:47But right now, we're going to talk about some of our favorite values.
1:51It's Adam, Dan, and Heath. I want to say the first time ever, Heath, that it's been Adam, Dan, and Heath on consecutive episodes.
1:58Wow. Historic. You think that's... You know, I just...
2:01I'm glad Dan is preserving the bit. What do you mean...
2:04What's the bit? Adam sent us a text this morning telling us kind of what we need for the show.
2:10I didn't quite understand, so I clarified. There was a string of probably five or six texts that fully spelled out what we were doing.
2:18And Dan, you know, he woke up about an hour and a half after we did.
2:23And looks at the text and says, so what are we doing?
2:27Because he's not going to read the text. He doesn't read text.
2:30He doesn't read emails. Listen. It's so true. When did those original texts come in?
2:35Was that over the weekend? Because I was probably doing...
2:38No, it was this morning. This morning. All this morning.
2:41What are you talking about? Okay, well, I know what we're doing now.
2:45You didn't even look at the timestamps. Like, didn't...
2:48You're just like, I've got some notifications. I see the last text, its names.
2:52What am we doing? I thought we broke bread, squashed the beef on FFT Dynasty last week.
2:57Heath, we're putting the Dynasty stuff behind us. Yep.
3:00I admitted it was my fault. I will do better.
3:03I won't have that same mistake next year. I mean, look, when the season ends next year, I'm just cutting 17 players immediately.
3:10I'm not even going to give it a chance.
3:13Can we stop? I don't want to talk about this anymore.
3:16Like, enough. Enough. Enough. All right. We've got some news and notes.
3:20And then the players we'll talk about on our most wanted list.
3:24I won't tell you whose is whose. We'll talk about Jordan Addison, Devontae Adams, Terry McLaurin, Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy, and Nico Collins.
3:31But right now, let's talk about Christian Watson. So Christian Watson, a four-year, $110.5 million extension.
3:36He has a $31 million signing bonus. The Packers gave Jaden Reed an extension earlier this offseason.
3:41That was three years, $50 million. So this is more than double that with one extra year.
3:46So a bigger financial commitment to Christian Watson than Jaden Reed for what that's worth.
3:51And, Dan, I think you sent in a list that you – in this aforementioned text message, you sent a list of
3:58players that you liked at their ADPs. And we're using, for today's show, Fantasy Pro's overall PPR ADP.
4:03And Christian Watson was one of those guys. And I said, you know, we'll talk about him in the news and notes.
4:10Let's select two other players. But now's your chance to talk about why you like Christian Watson's value.
4:15Right now, he is going as wide receiver 27, 55th overall.
4:19Yeah, I think the Green Bay Packers told us why I like his value at wide receiver 27, 55th overall.
4:25When he returned last year, he became as close to a focal point as we've seen in a Packers-Matt LaFleur scheme as we can get.
4:33But since he's kind of taken over as that OC, I mean, we haven't had a focal point.
4:38And he's not that, which is why he's ranked all the way down at wide receiver 27.
4:43But he was as close to being that as we've seen.
4:47And he had targets down the field. He had targets in the intermediate and short areas of the field that he just
4:54wasn't being utilized in earlier in his career. I think that's going to continue coming into this year with the possibility of
5:00an expanded red zone role as well, depending on what happens with their running back situation there.
5:05I think there's a definite opportunity, depending on what happens there at running back, for this team to go more pass first in 2026.
5:13So I don't ultimately think he needs to be a target hog to pay back this ADP.
5:18But I do think that he's being priced right now.
5:21Basically, what I could see his floor being, barring an injury, of course.
5:25And I think there's a real opportunity for him to break into that back end wide receiver one, borderline wide receiver one, wide receiver two range this season.
5:34Okay, that's Christian Watson. Heath, let's get your thoughts on Watson.
5:37Last year, finished his wide receiver 13 per game in non-PPR, 17th per game in half PPR, 19th per game in full PPR.
5:44He played 10 games. He did all this coming off a torn ACL, let's not forget, which he did at the very end of the 2024 season.
5:53So he didn't play until week eight. Here's a fun stat for you.
5:57Since he entered the league in 2022, here are your top five players, wide receivers, in fantasy points per target.
6:03And I think I set the minimum to 100 targets.
6:06Christian Watson is third. Jaden Reed is one. Jalen Naylor is two.
6:09Christian Watson, three. Jamison Williams, four. Kayshawn Booty, five.
6:12So that's a worthless stat for you. But what do you think about Watson going as wide receiver 27 right now?
6:19That seems about right to me. I think he's a really difficult player.
6:23And this is a really strange contract extension just because of the way the Packers have functioned and what Christian Watson has been so far in his career.
6:31I mean, he's going to be 27 years old this year.
6:35He does not have a 700-yard season. And the big part of that is because he – well, a part of that is because of the injuries.
6:43And there could be a year where he stays healthy.
6:46And I don't know. They don't have a number one wide receiver.
6:50And they don't – they haven't thrown the ball more than 490 times the last two years.
6:55And Watson did give us a very small sample last year of earning some targets.
7:00But I just like – I think he's the quintessential boom-bust wide receiver three.
7:04And at 27, like maybe he's one of the best boom-bust wide receiver threes.
7:08I think he's very similar to Jamison Williams who's going two wide receivers ahead of him.
7:13These are guys who – oh. Go ahead. Even last year he had two games with more than six targets.
7:19Yeah. He did also have three games where he finished inside the top five scoring at receiver in just nine games though.
7:26So he has – I guess it really does speak to what you were saying.
7:31There was a ton of boom-bust because he also had, what, four games where he finished outside the top 40 in scoring.
7:37So it was definitely more boom-bust. But even in that sense, you could still see that that was, in my mind at
7:44least, with – look, six touchdowns in what, nine games since returning?
7:48Or was it six? I think it was actually ten games.
7:51Ten games. He didn't play week 18. So the touchdowns were definitely up from past years on a per-game basis.
7:57So, I mean, it is a little bit of a bet on the Packers making an adjustment to how they call offense
8:04into the flow of this offense because it's been very run heavy.
8:08But I feel like that's a decent bet to make given the trajectory of where this offense is headed.
8:14And we don't know what's going to happen with Josh Jacobs, obviously.
8:17But that's just where I'm at with it. Over the last three seasons, they've averaged 516 pass attempts per year.
8:23So there was – back in 2023, it was 581.
8:26That's boosting that number quite a bit. But we'll include that.
8:30So that would be 27 more passes than they threw last year.
8:34Christian Watson, when he was – when he played that week 8 through week 17, had a 19% target share.
8:40That's about – that's about 100 targets for a season.
8:43All right. So I'll just make you a little more optimistic if you want to buy into the narrative that things were changing for him.
8:50So he played those 10 games. In the first three games, he had an ADOT of 25.9 yards, which is insane.
8:57And he had a 12% target share. From weeks 11 through 18, this is where we saw a little bit of a different profile.
9:04He had a lower ADOT of still 15.5 yards.
9:07It's never going to be – that's really high, but it's not super – it's not ridiculous.
9:12But he had 23.5% target share, 28.3% target per route run rate.
9:16He left one of the games early, by the way.
9:19He averaged 2.78 yards per route run. And by the way, since entering the league, he's 16th in yards per route run.
9:26And basically every player ahead of Christian Watson in yards per route run over the last four years is or has been
9:33a superstar, with some exceptions like Luther Burden's on there, Jalen Waddell, Brandon Iyuk.
9:37Those are some of the worst names on the list.
9:40So he – I think – I went back and I looked at just the last three years.
9:45Can you be a top 24 receiver with 100, 105 targets or something like that?
9:50And basically the answer is yes if you excel in two areas.
9:54One, yards per catch, which he's going to probably be one of the leaders.
9:58Two, touchdowns. So it's – and he's been good at those.
10:01Yeah. So that's why I compared him to Jameis Williams because Jameis Williams showed up on that list twice as low targets but finishing in top 24.
10:10Jordan Addison is another guy. Heath, I know he's someone you like.
10:13Now you can get Addison 30 picks later than – 40 picks later than Watson.
10:18But they're kind of similar. You've got to be efficient.
10:21You've got to score touchdowns. So he can do it.
10:24But even at his best, that stretch where I mentioned he had a 23.5% target share, he was on pace for 104 targets.
10:31So they're going to have to throw more hopefully.
10:34All right. Kansas City – another guy that showed up on your list, Dan, of your favorite values was Ken Walker.
10:40And Chiefs Offensive Coordinator Eric Biennemi said that Walker – I praised what he was doing as a rusher, but he said
10:47he needs to get better at pass protection and route running.
10:51Can you be a stud running back if you don't really play on third down?
10:55Yes, you can. You can be Derek Henry. You can be James Cook.
10:59Josh Jacobs played about 27% – ran about 27% of the third down routes when he was healthy.
11:05So it is possible. But you've got to get a lot of work and a lot of touchdowns.
11:10So why do you like Ken Walker this year?
11:13Well, it really starts with the second thing you mentioned.
11:16You've got to get a lot of touchdowns. And who is going to get those touchdowns on this Chiefs offense at the running back position?
11:24Kareem Hunt. We've had two years in a row now where Kareem Hunt was somebody who probably should have been drafted, wasn't
11:31drafted, and was then scooped off all waiver wires.
11:33And ultimately, we had conversations, Adam, that I remember with you like, is Kareem Hunt – it's Kareem Hunt or X this week?
11:40And we chose Kareem Hunt a lot because he was described as maybe a back-end flex, but the reality was in the
11:47midst of the season, he became an RB2 because he scored touchdowns all the time.
11:52The Chiefs get in the red zone all the time.
11:55This is one of those offenses. Obviously, this is assuming Mahomes comes back, and right now he's already practicing.
12:01So I actually have a feeling he might be back even for week one.
12:05We'll see. Heath probably has more insight on that.
12:08But this is an offense that gets in the red zone early and often.
12:12In addition to these expanded red zone opportunities with Kareem Hunt not coming back, I think he'll have some of the most red zone opportunities in the NFL.
12:21Also last year, Isaiah Pacheco faced light boxes, I believe, more than any running back in the NFL.
12:26And he did nothing with them. He was the worst at that.
12:30And you're nodding your head. Is that incorrect? No, it's not.
12:33The opportunities could have been there for Pacheco. It just – Yeah.
12:37It didn't work. And he struggled. And it is what it is.
12:41Like, I don't know what it was for Pacheco.
12:43He didn't have his best season. But the reality is they're going to continue to face light boxes at either the highest
12:50rate or the second or third highest rate in the NFL because Patrick Mahomes is on this team.
12:56And that's how NFL defenses play Mahomes. Even though Mahomes has really struggled with deep passing over the last two years.
13:02I saw the stat on it last week. It was pretty insane to even look at.
13:07It doesn't really matter. DCs are not going to change how they play him.
13:11They're going to play two high safety, split safety look.
13:14They're going to play at depth that they don't play with most teams at.
13:19So, he'll continue to get opportunities that Pacheco was unable to cash in on.
13:23But Walker, the talent he is, I think will be able to cash in on those opportunities.
13:28So, the combination of those two things, expanded red zone opportunities for him in my mind versus what he had in Seattle
13:35and much better opportunities from a between-the-20 standpoint. The opportunity once you get down to the 40, 30-yard range of the opposing team's field.
13:42The chance to have big runs from there that could lead to touchdowns.
13:46I've never been a Ken Walker guy in my life.
13:50I've literally faded him every single year of my fantasy career.
13:53He's been on my boss fade list. And this is the first year I'm buying in because at this price tag, I
14:00don't necessarily think his upside is being priced in.
14:02Okay. Isn't he like an early second-round pick? Yeah.
14:05And I think he could easily be a top 10 scorer in fantasy.
14:09Easily. He's going 16th right now, Ken Walker. And he's in this group of running backs that don't really have a lot of backfield competition, I'd say, Heath.
14:18Devon Achan. Well, I mean, James Cook. Devon Achan.
14:21You can throw Jenty in there. And basically all these guys.
14:24Chase Brown. But Chase Brown's going to lose third down snaps to Pirine.
14:28Amarian Hampton. Does he have competition? That's the one.
14:31I look at it in this list. I go, Saquon Barkley, Devon Achan, Chase Brown, Amarian Hampton, Ken Walker.
14:37Or who's going to lose the most carries? I hope none of them.
14:41But I feel like Hampton would be my bet, Heath, if I were betting on one guy to lose carries.
14:47Out of this group? Yeah. Yeah. So I have Hampton the lowest in that group in terms of total rush attempts.
14:53I think he probably does have a lower share of their rushes than Chase Brown.
14:58But Chase Brown's team is going to run the ball so little that he's very like Brown and Hampton are both right around 230 carries in my projections.
15:06And I've got Walker up around almost 270. Okay.
15:09All right. Let's go through the rest of the news and notes here.
15:13Aaron Wilson of NBC Sports Houston thinks that second year receiver Jaden Higgins could have a breakout season.
15:19Higgins actually had a stretch of five games where he had seven to nine targets in four of those five games.
15:25He never did a lot with it. He never had more than 55 yards.
15:29He did catch three touchdowns. Actually, I don't know if this will hold up, but Higgins, he had 12.3% of Houston's total
15:36targets, but he had 25.6% of their end zone targets.
15:39So he was used there. Denver linebacker Jonathan Cooper was arrested on domestic violence charges.
15:44This is a guy who basically plays every game, has had eight or more sacks in three straight seasons.
15:50Mike Kay of the Charlotte Observer. I can't speak.
15:52Charlotte Observer. He thinks Chuba Hubbard is going to come out of the gate with the lion's share of the touches.
15:59And he thinks that Jonathan Brooks will have a chance to earn more playing time as the season progresses.
16:05Tampa Bay, you know, we talked about their offense kind of struggled last year.
16:09One thing I basically never mentioned that their center, Cody Mock, missed all but two games towards meniscus in week two.
16:15Well, he's participating in OTAs and hopes to be ready by training camp.
16:19Omar Kelly of the Miami Herald thinks that rookie wide receiver Kevin Coleman should be the Dolphins starting slot receiver.
16:26That's just his opinion. And Chicago, the Bears, their board of directors, advanced a plan to develop a stadium in Hammond, Indiana.
16:32People are very unhappy about this. Yeah. I don't understand that.
16:36Like, I understand it, but, like, the Chiefs just did it.
16:39It's the same thing the Giants have done for decades.
16:42Right. True. Like, it's just, it is what it is.
16:45Yeah, it really, I don't know how far away Hammond, Indiana is from where they play now.
16:51Do you guys know? I just know it's 25 minutes from the, like, Chicago loop from the city, from what I heard.
16:57That's nothing. I know. I was kind of appalled by it, too.
17:01And then I, like, looked into it and saw that, and I was like, oh, never mind.
17:06It's just not something to be outraged over. I was outraged.
17:10No, I was sad when the Hurricanes moved from the Orange Bowl to where the Dolphins play now.
17:15But, my God, what a great decision that was.
17:18Why? Why is it such a good decision? Because this old stadium was a dilapidated pile of crap.
17:23And it was, it's, the new stadium is, like, 20 minutes closer to where I lived.
17:28So, it was, oh, yeah. So, that's what, 30, 30-minute drive from Soldier Field.
17:33Yeah, but those people in Elmhurst are going to be pissed.
17:36And Wheaton. In Elmhurst? And Naperville. An hour drive to the stadium.
17:40Look at the difference for them. Evanston, they had a decent drive.
17:43Now, Evanston's got to go way out. Well, we've been talking about Evanston so much on the show lately.
17:49I just feel bad because Arlington Heights almost had the stadium.
17:53That's where they were going to build, Arlington Heights.
17:55I mean, imagine living in Crystal Lake. I mean, come on.
17:59Pour one out for your Crystal Lake Bears fans.
18:02Crystal Lake is getting killed here. The weather won't maybe be quite as bad.
18:0630 minutes south? I don't know about that. Well, they're not on the water.
18:10They're not on the lake. Yeah. Oh, I see that.
18:13The lake wind is a real thing. Living in Madison, Wisconsin for four years, the lake wind is devastating.
18:19So that's a good point, a good take by Heath.
18:22We may have to adjust our weather. I wonder when this will happen.
18:26I don't know what the timeline is, but can we get a 4,000-yard passer at Soldier Field?
18:31Maybe moving off the lake is what will do it.
18:34Maybe. All right, we're going to take a break.
18:37Probably going to have a roof anyway. I hope.
18:40We'll take a break and get into the most wanted list for the three of us.
18:45And also, we're going to have a little battle between Dan and Heath.
18:49A little impromptu battle between the two of these guys.
18:52That's something new. Right when we come back. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football Today.
18:57Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co-founder of Angie. And one thing I've learned is that you buy a house, but you make it a home.
19:04Because with every fix, update, and renovation, it becomes a little more your own.
19:09So you need all your jobs done well. For nearly 30 years, Angie has helped millions of homeowners hire skilled pros for the projects that matter.
19:17From plumbing to electrical, roof repair to deck upgrades.
19:19So leave it to the pros who will get your jobs done well.
19:23Angie, the one you trust to find the ones you trust.
19:27Find a pro for your project at Angie.com. As a woman entrepreneur, you know that every connection counts, whether it's with your customers, your team, or your community.
19:35Spectrum Business is here to help you build those connections stronger and faster.
19:39Imagine running your business with fast, reliable, fiber-powered internet so you can stay connected to customers, employees, and vendors without having to worry.
19:46We know flexibility matters. That's why select Spectrum Business packages come with a three-year price guarantee so you can focus on running your business.
19:54Plus, enjoy savings on internet, phone, TV, and mobile services when you bundle, all with a 30-day money-back guarantee and no long-term contracts.
20:01With Spectrum Business, you get more than just internet.
20:04You get support with 100% U.S.-based customer service. Real people who understand small business.
20:08Ready 24-7 to help you stay up and running.
20:11Join millions of business owners like you across America who trust Spectrum Business for reliability, speed, and support.
20:16Visit spectrum.com slash business today to get started. Restrictions apply.
20:19Service is not available in all areas. You know that thing where you get an amazing pair of shoes at a really
20:26great price and want to tell everyone about it?
20:29Yeah, so do we. Here at Designer Shoe Warehouse, we'll give you something to brag about.
20:34Like the latest styles from brands you love. Or the trends everyone's obsessing over.
20:38Or shoes that make you feel like, well, you.
20:41So go ahead, show off a little. Find shoes that get you.
20:44The prices that get your budget. Head to your DSW store or DSW.com today.
20:49DSW, let us surprise you. Let's get into our most wanted list.
20:52We'll save the Dan Heath battle for after Heath's two players that he talks about, which are going to be Jordan Addison and Kyle Pitts.
21:00They're going 95th, 99th overall, right around there. Jordan Addison is wide receiver 45 in Fantasy Pros ADP.
21:06And it's basically where he finished last year. He was 45th overall.
21:09He was 50th per game in full PPR. He was better in non-PPR, where he was 43rd per game and 42nd overall.
21:16He was actually terrific with Carson Wentz in weeks four through eight on pace for over 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns.
21:23But man, basically have to throw out everything with J.J.
21:26McCarthy. So anyway, Jordan Addison is someone you like as wide receiver 45 right now.
21:30Yeah, he's been kind of similar to Christian Watson in terms of being very efficient, scoring a lot of touchdowns, played with an awful quarterback situation last year.
21:39So it fell off. But everyone is expecting Kyler Murray to save Justin Jefferson.
21:43Jordan Addison is just being drafted where he finished last year on a per game basis.
21:48I think he is in that. I would rather have Christian Watson than Jordan Addison, but I think he's in that same boom bust wide receiver group.
21:56You can call Watson a high end boom bust wide receiver three, and you can call Addison a low end boom bust wide receiver three.
22:04In his career, Jordan Addison has been. So he's better in the other formats.
22:08Well, I'll just give you his worst format, which is full PPR.
22:1231st per game, 25th per game, and 50th per game.
22:15So in two seasons before the McCarthy era, 31st per game as a rookie, 25th per game as a sophomore, and non-PPR, 23rd and 18th per game.
22:23I don't know. I haven't really been targeting him just because I don't know.
22:28Like 2024, they threw for 4,379 yards and 35 touchdowns.
22:312023, they were, I think, even better than that.
22:34And I don't know. It's, I guess it, oh yeah, 4,700 yards and 30 touchdowns.
22:38You know what I'm saying? It's like, I don't know that they can get back to those heights.
22:44They can't get to 4,700 yards. Well, no, but he's being drafted as wide receiver 45.
22:49Yeah. Does he have upside? You know, what's his upside?
22:5225th per game. Do you think he can eclipse that?
22:55That's his best finish so far. Jordan Addison. I mean, if Justin Jefferson stays healthy, then that's probably his upside.
23:01Dan, what do you, how do you feel about Addison?
23:04Hasn't typically been someone I've targeted, but he's made a good case.
23:08We're just buying him right now at his absolute, what's probably his absolute floor.
23:12The issue is he's just one of these like Metcalf type players.
23:16And I guess you could maybe put Watson in there.
23:19I think Watson will take a step forward, but I can totally understand if you would.
23:24These DK Metcalf, whatever, Watson, Addison type players where it's like total in the end, it's like, yeah, they finished this wide receiver X, whatever it may be.
23:32But did you trust him on a weekly basis?
23:35Could you play him on a weekly basis? Cause I see the argument being made all throughout Twitter for Metcalf and like on the surface, it makes sense.
23:44It's like, wow, Metcalf finishes wide receiver 26 last year.
23:47Now we're buying now as ADP is wide receiver 36.
23:50How could it possibly be worse? It's like, well, it was a weird wide receiver 26.
23:55Cause they'll have a blowup week or two, but you don't start him because he had four weeks in a row where he killed you.
24:02So, I mean, in best ball Addison's definitely somebody I'm more interested in, but in these weekly start, start set leagues that
24:09we mostly play, it's just a frustrating player. And I think that's what Sam Darnold was in 2024.
24:15Jay McCarthy. It's just, that's the big thing for me, for him to really become that weekly guy we can rely on
24:21and not have to like, ah, here's 20 points, but here's three points, three weeks in a row.
24:27He needs Murray to step up. Yeah. I don't, I don't think he's going to become a weekly guy that we just
24:34always know, but I just don't think those guys are available at wide receiver.
24:38That's fair. That's fair. Yeah. But you know, it's interesting.
24:41They're probably not available at wide receiver 30 either.
24:44So I think that's your point. It's right. But if you let's take a look at this list, you're actually really, I
24:51struggled with this show today because I could give some names that I've talked about them.
24:55Like, I'm not going to talk about Chase Brown again.
24:59You know, I think people probably know who I like for, for the most part.
25:03So I try to pick, um, I did pick Nico Collins.
25:07Who's not new for me, but I try to like be a little different, but I was looking at this range of receiver.
25:14Yeah. And I really like it in general. I mean, to, to be able to be at 95 overall and get Quentin Johnston, Ricky.
25:21Yeah. I like this group. You know, I'm not saying everyone's going to be good, but Quentin Johnson, Ricky Pierce all Jordan Addison, Jacoby Myers, Josh Downs.
25:29You know, he thought about picking Jacoby Myers for today's show.
25:33Josh Downs. You talked about last week as someone you like when you, we did the player outlooks.
25:38I actually think there's, I'm not saying there's a league winner in this group.
25:43Maybe, but I think there's, this is good value guys that are not even in the top 40 at wide receiver.
25:49I like it. I see a lot of players.
25:52I struggle. I would struggle with starting on a weekly basis, but we're talking about wide receivers 43 and we are in round nine.
25:59You're not drafting starters, but you are drafting these guys.
26:02You have to draft them thinking, well, they could become start right.
26:06And I can see the case for all of them.
26:09I want to like 100% believe Quentin Johnston could.
26:12Yeah. I guess I like Joe Jacoby Myers a lot more.
26:15Like if you're talking about a floor play, right.
26:18Go be Myers is much more exciting. And even Wandale for me as a floor play, I personally probably would take Wandale
26:25over a lot of these players like Pierce Hall and players on players who have just not done anything in the NFL level.
26:32I could see that with Pierce. So the other guys, I couldn't really, I mean, Wandale could literally be the focal point
26:38of the offense potentially based on what we've seen with Dable.
26:42If they want to make things easy for Cam Ward, at least for the first half of the season, maybe things evolve.
26:49Um, and they can evolve to a different offense, but he's the only one of those guys we're looking at that has any kind of target upside, right?
26:57Who else has anywhere near the target upside of those players that Wandale downs Myers, Addison, Pierce Hall, Quentin Johnston.
27:03I think Myers has target upside. It's just like Robinson.
27:06He's not going to turn them into a lot of fantasy points.
27:10Yeah. I mean, why does got two straight years with 140 or more targets?
27:14One of those years Malik neighbors did play. That's pretty interesting, but I was actually going to pick Carnell Tate for this exercise.
27:21I didn't cause he's going just like a little too early for me to say, I love his ADP.
27:27He's going around 60th overall, which is fine. But it's because I have, I don't believe in Wandale Robbins and I just, I just never have no.
27:36And I, and I, and nor should I have, I mean, he's, well, I think you, you could argue that you should have last year.
27:43I mean, I guess, how is he not a good pick last year?
27:47No, he was a good pick last year, but he would not have been a good pick last year.
27:53If Malik neighbors hadn't been out for the season and Wandale, you know, he, what did he do the year before?
28:00Nothing was there. That's he had 140 targets and he finished his wide receiver 36 overall drafted a wide receiver 48 here.
28:06And he was 49th per game two years ago, probably a little bit higher than 47th per game.
28:12If I take out two guys who played once, but 47th per game with 140 targets two years ago.
28:18And since then he's been paid $80 million. Yeah.
28:20What was a bad, $8 million. Um, all right.
28:23Uh, Kyle, Kyle pits. You did make a good point about the target upside.
28:28Kyle pits is the other guy that Heath wanted to talk about and he was a top six tight end in half
28:34and full PPR on a per game basis. So discuss Kyle pits who is going a 95th overall as tight end seven.
28:41Yeah. I did not choose someone new for this portion of the exercise.
28:45I just talk about Kyle pits every week. Um, I talk about Kevin Stepanski every week.
28:50Really? It's, uh, almost guaranteed nine targets per game from the tight end position in his offense.
28:55Maybe one or two of them goes to Austin Hooper or somebody else.
28:59But I think there's a very good chance we're getting north of a hundred targets from Kyle pits.
29:05Once again, I think we see an increase in the yak because he gets more easy button throws in this Stefanski offense.
29:12I think there's if not a good quarterback, at least a good floor between two and pinnocks.
29:17It won't be an absolute disaster. And I expect him to be second on his team and targets and potentially a top five tight end.
29:24Okay. He's going 95th and you would take Kyle pits when, uh, round six, round six.
29:29Okay. So that's quite a bargain for pits. And my, uh, counter to that is just, you know, without Drake London, he
29:36had a 29.3% target share and average 19 points per game in PPR with Drake London.
29:41Last year, he had a 20% target share and average 9.6 PPR points per game, which is the, you know, like a streamer.
29:48Uh, what were the cousins, um, panic splits for pets?
29:51He was much better with cousins if I'm not mistaken.
29:54Right. Yes, probably. But, but it's really, it was the entire pits argument comes down to, do you believe that offensive coordinators matter?
30:01Sort of the entire argument. I don't think it's the entire argument either, but it is.
30:06You're right. I mean, look, I, I don't care as much about the offensive coordinator.
30:11I do, but I also don't know necessarily if he, we, we talk about some dynasty.
30:16He'd like, he's not your typical Stefanski tight end.
30:19He's not a Y tight end. So, I mean, like if he's just lined up as a big slot in that offense, he doesn't really do that anymore.
30:27The actually one thing, uh, he's played five years, Kyle pits, right?
30:31Yeah. In the first three years of his career, he was basically the highest a dot tight end in the NFL.
30:37And he lined up out wide or in the slot, you know, more than half the time.
30:42The last two years, he's had an 8.4 and a 7.4 yard a dot.
30:47I'm guessing 7.4 is probably like a little app kind of average.
30:50You do see a lot of tight ends in the five to six range, six and a half.
30:56It's, it's a low a dot position with a lot of easy catches.
31:00And yeah, he's never been that guy, but he's getting lower in a dot.
31:04But the biggest difference is last year, more than half of his snaps were in line.
31:09So they moved him to Y last year in that Zach Robinson offense outside zone.
31:14Like they need him there. And maybe this is where Sivansky season.
31:18Like he might just watch the team and be like, all right, we can use him in similar ways or we can evolve his game, which is good.
31:26Like that's the upside case for him. I agree with Heath.
31:30The downside case for me is like, he did most of his work to the quarterback.
31:34Who's not on this roster anymore. And he has a huge extensive injury history.
31:39Those are the two things that scare me about this.
31:42The injury history is interesting because he's played hurt so much.
31:45And maybe that's why we don't think he's that good necessarily.
31:49Maybe some people don't think he's that. So he, he got hurt in 2022 and he played hurt in 2023.
31:55Yeah. Were there other, he's only had one season where he missed a game.
31:59Yeah. I don't mean like missing time. I just mean he's on the field, but he's not effective.
32:05And he's, he's got these nagging injuries that have been bothering him really since Florida.
32:09And maybe I'm overrating that. That's definitely possible. I see, I see the upside case.
32:14I think for me that the bigger question mark is like, why was so much of the production with Kirk cousins and without London on the field?
32:22I think you're missing. I don't think it's cousins.
32:25I think it's London. I thought it was cousins.
32:28I want to, no, I just, I think the X factor is probably London, not being there, not the quarterback necessarily.
32:34You know what I mean? Penix doesn't strike me as someone who has really utilized his tight ends at any point.
32:40And he threw outside the numbers all the time at Washington and he did it with Atlanta last year to is not
32:47someone really utilizing the middle of the field either.
32:50And to it, you can sit there and say, oh, well, John Smith had a huge season.
32:55Yeah. Those are dump downs. Those don't count. Right.
32:58And John who had the, one of the lowest they'd sign screen.
33:02Well, the dump downs are what Stavansky has done to tight ends.
33:05You think pits will be, if pits is used in that way, that's a totally different outlook for him.
33:11I think another question is, can Kyle pitch just be kind of a normal Kyle pits, maybe a little bit better and still justified 95th overall?
33:19I think, I think he could, you know, it's like an extra point per game, right?
33:2495th is still a nice discount and you could, you could be fine like cutting him.
33:29If you drafted him 95th overall, you're not so invested in the guy where it's like, oh, it doesn't work out.
33:36All right. You guys ready for your battle? What is it going to be?
33:40Dan versus Heath battle. Oh, is it did fun to my day Adams?
33:44No, it is. Oh, you each have 20 seconds to promote your podcast.
33:48Let's see who does a better job. Heath can go first.
33:51Heath goes first. All right, wait, Dan, I have a number behind my back.
33:55I have a number behind my back. One or two.
33:59Dan, guess. Two. It's two. All right. Heath, you go first.
34:02Yeah. Coming up on FFT dynasty this week, we are going to do a one QB startup mock draft.
34:08We'll have shows on Tuesdays and Fridays at 1130 Eastern, and it will only be an hour.
34:13All right, Dan, you're up. You come for more than an hour for beyond the box score, but this week you're starting to get the quarterback breakdowns in.
34:22Jacob and I have poured hours, and I literally mean hours of film into Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, some of the most important impactful players.
34:29We're going to break down the tape. We're going to give you the stats.
34:34We're going to tell you about why you need to draft or avoid these players.
34:38Oh, I think he just got that in. That was really good.
34:42Well done. You guys, it's a tie. Well done.
34:45All right, Dan, first guy on your list is Terry McLaurin.
34:48No, we swapped. No, we didn't. Yes, we did.
34:51Who do we swap out? I have Ibuka and Devante Adams.
34:54Oh, you want to do Ibuka and Adams? You're okay with this.
34:58Ibuka is my favorite. Sorry, I thought we were doing McLaurin and Adams.
35:02No. Ibuka and Adams it is. Okay, Ibuka, if I remember correctly, he's going about 42nd overall.
35:07Let's see. 40th overall. Wide receiver 20 for Emeka Ibuka.
35:10But in that range with Garrett Wilson, Terrell McMillan, Luther Burden, and even Terry McLaurin.
35:15So, all right, Ibuka, go. Yeah, Ibuka, Ibuka, one of my favorite breakouts this year, entering year two of his career, natural
35:22progression from understanding of playing faster, understanding where to be on the field.
35:26But the reality is when it comes to Ibuka, we had to watch so much Bucs tape for Beyond the Box.
35:32Or last year, they were one of our featured.
35:35It was the Bucs, the Jags, and the Bears.
35:38I feel like we watched more tape on them than any team.
35:41And there was no game that went by, Adam, where I didn't see Emeka Ibuka winning on a double move on the
35:48outside, getting open vertically, and Baker either didn't see him.
35:51Baker didn't throw the ball on time or he didn't throw it accurately.
35:55He was, in a lot of ways, the sacrificial X once Mike Evans got hurt.
36:00But this year, we've already heard them say he's not going to play that role anymore.
36:05He's going to play the move zero, which is the exact role he needs to be playing.
36:10It fits his skill set better. And more importantly, it's going to get him an insane opportunity at targets.
36:16I think Ibuka could reach the 130, 140 range of targets, potentially even more as the complete focal point of this offense,
36:22the best receiver in this offense, the ability to still win on those vertical routes if it been bigger can improve the timing.
36:29But game's going to slow down for him. His rapport with Baker gets better.
36:34And more importantly, he plays this role, this featured role.
36:37And from a target upside standpoint, at that spot of the draft, why it's 040, I don't think you have anyone who
36:44is anywhere near the target upside as Emeka Ibuka does.
36:47Not McMillan? No, because I think that passing offense sucks so bad.
36:50No. You were doing a great job until you said the target thing.
36:54No. Because I think Garrett Wilson has the... Garrett Wilson, again, bad offense that can't move the ball passing-wise.
37:00They're punting a lot. He's been on bad offense.
37:03No, no, no. That's a thing. He's been on bad offense as well?
37:07From a target share. If you're saying target share percentage, sure.
37:10Look at his career. But I'm saying actual targets.
37:13He's been... He gets like eight targets a game, Garrett Wilson, every year of his career is on the worst offense in football.
37:20So I don't... Unless you think that Cooper... Well, I'm not saying all targets are equal.
37:25Of course, I'd rather the Baker Mayfield targets. The point I'm trying to make it here.
37:30But he... Okay, go ahead. I just don't... I think Dan's right if we get good Baker this year.
37:36I have absolutely no idea what Baker Mayfield we're getting.
37:39He was hurt. And remember, I talked about Cody Mock like a half hour ago, their starting center.
37:44He played guard in 2024. But he rated as...
37:47According to PFF, he was the 10th best pass blocking guard.
37:51I don't think that this note should be what sways you.
37:54But it will help to get him back in the interior of their offensive line.
37:59Yeah, I think... I'm more convinced just looking at Baker Mayfield's career from a statistical standpoint that 2024 is the clear and obvious outlier.
38:06Fair. It's the Liam Cohen year. You could say the same about Trevor Lawrence, probably.
38:11Except he still has them. And he gets to keep going.
38:14He finished 2023 strong, though, too. Right? So he kind of carried it over.
38:18Yeah. But just looking at the full season, like...
38:21I don't think he's going to get back to 2024 numbers.
38:24Let me be clear. Because then Agubuka should be a top 10 receiver.
38:28Top 12, in my mind. He also started the...
38:31I mean, Baker Mayfield scored 23 or more... 22.9 or more fantasy points in five of his first six games.
38:37But don't you remember how that happened? Was it deep balls to Abuka?
38:41It was like, man, this has been a terrible performance from Baker Mayfield for about...
38:46Except for three plays. I don't know. He only threw one play.
38:50I don't remember it the same way you did.
38:52I thought that he was in the MVP conversation.
38:55He was. He had a bunch of long touchdowns.
38:58He also played Houston, Philadelphia, and Seattle in that stretch.
39:01He had one interception in that stretch. In that stretch, Abuka finished as a top seven scoring receiver in three of those games, including first and third overall.
39:10Everyone got hurt on that team at some point and played through it.
39:14I gave the stat last week that Abuka ESPN said before his week six hamstring injury, he had 11 routes of at
39:20least 18 miles per hour in the first six weeks of the season.
39:24And he had... The first five weeks of the season.
39:27Then he had 11 routes in the last 12 weeks of the season of 18 miles per hour.
39:33So he just wasn't running as fast after the hamstring injury, Abuka.
39:37I don't know. I mean, I feel like even if Baker just has a decent season, look at the wide receivers that are going around him, right?
39:45Like Garrett Wilson. And I'd even say Luther Burden because I don't know that Caleb Williams is going to put up gaudy passing numbers.
39:52Ted O'McMillan. Right? Zay Flowers. Yeah. Baker's going to throw for more yards than Lamar Jackson, I think.
39:58Certainly going to throw for more yards than Bryce Young and Geno Smith.
40:02All right. I know Dave is on your side.
40:05He loves a Mecca Bucca this year. Yeah. Dave also loves commercial breaks.
40:09So in the sense, in honor of Dave, let's take one of those.
40:13And we'll talk about Devante Adams when we come back.
40:16And I think Dave loves Devante Adams this year too.
40:19We'll be right back. I think Dave loves commercial breaks.
40:22Dave loves Dan Schneier. We'll be right back. Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co-founder of Angie.
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41:39Service is not available in all areas. Devontae Adams going 50th overall, wide receiver 24.
41:44Why do you like him so much, Dan? Yeah, it's just printing again for Devontae Adams.
41:49He's a player I targeted in all drafts last year.
41:52If it wasn't for the injury at the end of the year, he probably would have been top five, right?
41:58Top five, top six value buys in all of the drafts last year where he was going.
42:03He's going even later this year, right? It seems like now he's a year older.
42:08I guess that's being used against him. But it's a similar exact case to what I made for Christian McCaffrey as my RB1 before last year.
42:16All these other guys, there are a ton of factors in play.
42:20Will this happen? Will the targets happen? Will this happen?
42:23Whatever it may be. With Adams and players like Adams and Christian McCaffrey, there's only one question you have to ask yourself.
42:29Is he going to stay healthy? Because if he stays healthy, he is going to be someone who is impossible to defend
42:36one-on-one in the red zone with his release package off the line of scrimmage.
42:40His rapport with Matthew Stafford, Matthew Stafford's ability to place the ball wherever the heck he wants with velocity, with accuracy.
42:47And again, when you have that ability to win with the quick release off the line of scrimmage in the red zone
42:54and you know you're never going to see one situation where you're going to have a safety shaded over to you or a linebacker cheating.
43:01It's always going to be a one-on-one as it's been.
43:04You're going to score double-digit touchdowns as long as you stay healthy.
43:08What I feel like is a near-guarantee lock at double-digit touchdowns for a player here being drafted at wide receiver 24.
43:15This is still a game, as much as we want to talk about targets and receiving yards, as much as we want
43:21to say touchdowns regress, it's still a game where touchdowns decide fantasy value.
43:25Touchdowns decide fantasy production. I've made this case a while.
43:28And while it is more likely to predict regression in either direction for touchdowns versus yards based on targets and all these
43:35other factors, there are some guys that just score.
43:38Adams, Derek Henry, these guys just score over and over and over again.
43:42And so for me, I'm getting double-digit touchdowns. I probably will never get the target volume he had early in his career, the receiving yards.
43:50I don't really care, though. I know I'm going to get, as long as he stays healthy, to 10, maybe more touchdowns.
43:56I mean, last year, as I'm rolling through, before Devontae Adams got hurt, he finishes a top 10 receiver.
44:02One, two, three, four, five, six games. That's insane for a player we're paying wide receiver 24 price for.
44:08He got injured in week 15, by the way, didn't return.
44:11And two of those weeks were, or three of those weeks were top six finishes at wide receiver.
44:17So it's like a middle to back end wide receiver, or sorry, mid wide receiver one those weeks from a scoring standpoint.
44:24So again, it is touchdown heavy, obviously at 14 touchdowns last year.
44:27And that's with missing three games. I think we'll get to 14, 15 again.
44:32Why not? Okay. So Dan's right that he is one of those guys that just scores touchdowns.
44:37He is the active leader in receiving touchdowns with 117.
44:40So he's done this basically since his third year in the league.
44:44In that, he still, for his career, has a 7.2% touchdown rate.
44:47If he would have had a 7.2% touchdown rate last year, he would have scored eight touchdowns.
44:53Yeah. You think he would have been a top 24 wide receiver?
44:56You're saying his rate was just too high versus his career last year, which is fine.
45:01Not just versus his career. Like, his career rate for anybody else in a given season, you would say he's not going to score that.
45:09How many touchdowns again? Not anybody. Most other players, like 7.2% is, it's high, but you could do it.
45:15That also includes a year with Jimmy Garoppolo. And that includes all this other context for me where it's like, I don't
45:21want to take a career rate knowing he was dragged down at times by players like Jimmy Garoppolo.
45:27But when I know he has Matthew Stafford now, who quite frankly, he scored, I think he's better from a touchdown standpoint
45:34with Stafford than he was even with Rogers. As crazy as it sounds, based on the scheme that Bram's run, based on
45:41the different opportunities that I watched with my own two eyes last year.
45:45I mean, it felt like printing money with them two in the red zone.
45:49I don't really see what's going to change. I love Aaron Rogers.
45:53He's obviously an amazing quarterback, Hall of Famer, but they seem to have a better connection in the red zone, Stafford and Adams.
46:00All right, so Heath, you're saying in the 14 games Devontae Adams played, if he had had that touchdown rate, he would have scored eight touchdowns?
46:08Right. So two fewer fantasy points per year. Yeah, so I subtracted 36 points from his total.
46:13I divided by 14. You get to 13.4 points per game, which last year would have been, or 13.3.
46:19That would have been about wide receiver 18. However, the year before that, that would have been wide receiver 31-ish.
46:25So, you know, 13.3 fantasy points per game last year would have been pretty damn good.
46:30Other than that, it's usually, you know, top 30, top 24 to 30, something like that.
46:35But that's just one stat. I mean, you know.
46:37Yeah, I would love to see that stat taking out the Oakland years.
46:41I'm with Wisco Dad in the comments. Like, I just don't care about what he scored during his time with Oakland and Jimmy Garoppolo.
46:49I mean, I don't know about that. No, he's benefited from me right now.
46:53I don't see why it matters. Touchdown season with the Raiders.
46:56What'd you say? He had a 14 touchdown season with the Raiders.
47:00In one of those two years. Okay. Well, that helps.
47:03All right. And also, you got to remember, Matthew Stafford, look at his five years with the Rams.
47:09He's been all over the place. Like, Matthew Stafford is going to regress.
47:13He's not going to be as good as he was last year.
47:16No, we threw 48 touchdowns last year? Of course.
47:19His touchdown rate doubled last year. The three prior years, Matthew Stafford's touchdown rate was 3.3%.
47:24Well, he didn't have Devontae Adams. I know, but it's like an exaggeration.
47:28It's a chicken or egg thing right here. This is like a caricature of what the Adams-Stafford relationship should be, right?
47:35Last year was the best case scenario. Yeah, he's going to catch touchdowns, though.
47:39I don't think anyone doubts that. But 33 years old.
47:42All right, that's Devontae Adams, and Dan likes Abuka and Adams, among others.
47:46And mine were kind of tough for me. I'm just not seeing any, oh my gosh, I can't believe this is incredible value players right now.
47:54I'm not going to try to force it. But I think Brock Purdy, now I don't really like him at 90, where
48:01is he, 96th overall Brock Purdy, but I do like him as QB14 overall.
48:05I would just hope that QB14 goes later in your drafts than top 100.
48:09But why do I like Brock Purdy? And spoiler alert, I like him less than I did when I sent the text message when I looked into something.
48:18That was like two hours ago. Yeah, well, last three years, he's finished as QB6, QB11, and QB4 per game in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues.
48:25QB7, QB10, and QB6 per game in four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues.
48:28So getting him at QB14, he's been better than that three straight years.
48:32He's been much better than that. Top six per game, or seven per game in four-point in two of the last three seasons.
48:39He runs the ball now. He scores some rushing touchdowns.
48:42I watched his rushing touchdowns over the last two years.
48:46You have a lot of option looks where he keeps it and scores.
48:50You have some QB sneaks in there. So I don't think it's completely fluky that he can score four or five touchdowns on the ground.
48:57And I think what you're seeing is that the 49ers' defense is not what it once was.
49:02I understand they're going to be healthier than they were last year, but I don't think they have a great defense.
49:09And as long as they don't have a great defense in the Shanahan era, they throw the ball.
49:14When they've had a top-10 defense, they don't throw the ball.
49:18But they've gotten more pass-heavy the last couple of years.
49:21And I think what we're seeing is that this team is transitioning into Brock Purdy's team.
49:26I think that's been pretty evident. So I think he's basically a lock to finish better than where Purdy's being drafted, which is QB 14.
49:33He has shown twice in the last two years he has top six upside.
49:38Why do I like him less than all the things I just said would indicate?
49:42I hate his schedule. He gets the Rams twice, which is tougher now.
49:46But even before that, they went out and got two cornerbacks from the Chiefs.
49:51He gets the Seahawks twice. In the last two games he faced the Seahawks last year, he scored less than 11 fantasy points combined.
49:58Combined. That was a playoff game, too. He gets Arizona only once.
50:02He plays them in Week 18. He gets Denver.
50:05He gets Minnesota. Minnesota allowed one passing touchdown in their last seven or eight games.
50:09I like that nugget about Arizona. That sucks. Yeah.
50:12He's also—Fantasy playoffs for Brock Purdy? At the Chargers.
50:15At the Chiefs. And home against Philadelphia. Oh, in the cold in Kansas City.
50:19That's no good. I can't—and he plays at the Giants, which should be pretty cold a couple weeks before that or a week before that.
50:27Now, I can't predict the injuries and all these things, but it is worth noting last year he went berserk in these great matchups in the fantasy playoffs.
50:35Right. And before that, Arizona, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Chicago. Chicago was a layup at the end of last year.
50:41They were so injured. Right. But if everybody were to stay healthy, he would have a really tough schedule.
50:47So I like him less than I'd like to like him.
50:50But Brock Purdy is a terrific player on a great offense who throws a lot of touchdowns, runs for enough yards in
50:57touchdowns, and will probably crush QB 14. I'm going to try to turn you back around and get you liking Brock Purdy
51:04more again, just because I always have—I love Brock Purdy stats.
51:07Over the last three years, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are the only three quarterbacks who have scored more fantasy points per game.
51:15Wow. In six-point pass touchdown leagues. He is QB four.
51:18Wow. That's amazing. Since he entered the league, there have been 30 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 1,000 passes.
51:24He ranks first in yards per attempt, a half a yard better than anyone else.
51:28Second in touchdown rate, one of only two quarterbacks with Lamar Jackson over 6% in terms of touchdown rate.
51:34First in success rate at 52.4%, a point and a half better than anyone else.
51:39Second in passer rating behind only Lamar Jackson. What do you think of the schedule thing?
51:44It's not ideal, but if they're going to—they might have to just throw 570 passes.
51:48They're probably not going to get 600. And if they do, and he's being drafted at QB 14?
51:54Yeah. Like, it's stealing. Yeah. I hope so. He also has the best touchdown maker he's had at any point in his career, Mike Evans.
52:02Yeah. I do think you have to be a little concerned about Evans being 33 and Kittle coming off an Achilles injury.
52:08I definitely think that's— For sure. That's a good— But they didn't have any receivers last year.
52:14Right. They always find a way. I mean, he had Juwan Jennings, but he can't— No, last year was as bad as it got for him receiver-wise.
52:22Yeah. All right. Nico Collins is my other guy, and my argument for him would be that he was wide receiver 11
52:29last year on a per-game basis in full PPR.
52:31Wide receiver 10 in non-PPR on a per-game basis.
52:34And currently, he's being drafted at the 2-3 turn.
52:37Yeah. Somewhere around wide receiver 9, I think. He's such an easy win, Nico.
52:41Wide receiver 8, I think, in ADP. So that's a little bit better than how he finished.
52:46But I just kind of feel like it can't get worse than it was last year for Nico.
52:52Such an easy win. You think so? I mean, I just— Yeah.
52:56I just don't see him finishing worse than what wide receiver 12.
52:59Right. So— And he had the injury last year, that—a couple injuries at a concussion that kind of nagged him.
53:06Well, I mean, he has injuries every year. He does.
53:09Yeah. He does. Like, he's got— You're kind of dismissing the Nico Collins injury after talking about Kyle Pitt's inability to stay healthy.
53:16And I think Nico Collins is, like, of a significantly worse injury risk than Pitts.
53:20Interesting. I have a trouble—there's two receivers that go in the same range.
53:24I have trouble figuring out who I like more, A.J.
53:27Brown or Nico Collins. I think both of them were— Nico for me.
53:31—were, you know, basically hit their floor last year.
53:34And they're going back-to-back as wide receivers 8 and 9 at the 2-3 turn.
53:38I think they're both—personally, I think they're both fantastic picks there.
53:42I like this rejuvenated A.J. Brown playing for his childhood team with Drake May.
53:46CJ Stroud and that offensive line could definitely hold him back, could hold Nico Collins back.
53:51But, you know, I don't really take any target competition seriously for either Nico or A.J.
53:56Brown. And I think if you take them both, I think that would be a pretty solid strategy, personally.
54:02Not nice that you have to. There's some good players there, I mean.
54:06Yeah, it's an interesting year for auction drafts because there's a lot of players in this range that I think could be good values.
54:13It's almost like a good year to wait. All right.
54:16Does anybody think that Nico Collins is not a good value at 23rd overall?
54:21I like him. I think, like several of the guys we've talked about, I have him almost exactly where he's being drafted.
54:27I have him 21st, so I think he's a good value.
54:31I think when it comes to round two, I don't know if this is true for the entire round.
54:37Thomas, could you scroll up just a little bit and go to like 12th overall in ADP?
54:42Sorry, the other way. Yeah, so we're talking A-Chan, Barkley, Chase Brown, Hampton, Ken Walker, Drake London, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Derek Henry, Jeremiah Love.
54:49I don't think I'd take him there. Nico Collins, A.J.
54:52Brown. I don't know that I have a big issue if those guys, for the most part, go in any order.
54:59Yeah. You know? I can see that. It's such a huge tier.
55:03Heath, your thoughts on that? Yeah. I think for the most part, that's – I would agree with that.
55:08It's a good year to have – I mean, it feels like every year to me, but it's a good year to have an early snake pick.
55:17I say this every year. It's just why snake is just a very bad format, but I'm trying not to talk bad on it.
55:24Trying to be a better person, even though auction is a thousand times more fair and equitable.
55:29I'll try my best to say snake is somehow okay.
55:32I don't think you understand. You don't like the show Friends, right?
55:36I never said I didn't like the show Friends.
55:39I don't watch Friends, and I've watched it a few times.
55:42It's okay. I would not say I don't like Friends.
55:45I just don't think it – You're missing the point of Friends.
55:49Friends is a show that makes you feel good, feel warm and fuzzy inside.
55:53Is that what snake drafts are supposed to do?
55:56Yeah. Snake drafts bring people into fantasy. You would have fewer entries into the fantasy world if auctions were the only way.
56:03But it's kind of like The Wire or something like that or Game of Thrones, whatever it may be.
56:09Once people start it, they're hooked and they never go back.
56:12Everyone I ever know who I turned on to auction has never gone back to snake, ever.
56:17Sure. That's, first of all, what you just said is so false.
56:21You're telling me that anyone you've ever introduced to auctions has never done a snake draft again?
56:26How could you tell me that's false? These are people I know.
56:30They've never done a snake – you yourself do snake drafts.
56:33No, I don't mean that. I mean if they've turned a league from auction – or from snake to auction.
56:39That specific league has never gone back after experiencing what an auction could be.
56:44No, because a third of them dropped out after the auction.
56:47No, no one dropped out. People have time. People have four hours on one day.
56:52You don't. You're way too busy. I'm not way too busy.
56:55I didn't see the email that you sent. Okay?
56:58So Thomas has a good quote here. Thomas says auction is Seinfeld.
57:02Snake is friends. And I can see that. That's fair.
57:05I'm fine with that. I've always described it as auction is like playing Madden on the all-pro mode and snake is rookie mode, which is fine.
57:13I understand people like rookie mode. I just don't think – like when we look at it like this and we're like
57:19saying what you just said, Adam, like, oh, it looks like all these guys in this range can be interchangeable.
57:26Well, you can't say that about Jameer Gibbs and about Bijon Robinson versus like the back end around one.
57:31So it just doesn't seem fair. Well, it is what it is.
57:35I think – oh, versus the back end of round one.
57:38Right. Yeah. But it is what it is. But it's not – it doesn't always work out that way.
57:44Obviously, we're going to be wrong. We just said like 10 players.
57:48There's no way they're all going to be even in points per game.
57:52Some of them are going to be horrible. Some of them are going to be great.
57:57Yeah. I mean, that's fantasy. Yeah. Yeah. Kind of is what it is.
58:01But I do think I really want an early pick.
58:04We always get the question, oh, where should I pick?
58:07And – Oh, you would need early. I don't always say early, but this year I definitely feel top five.
58:13I love it when I'm at the – because I'm always at the back of our drafts.
58:18For some reason, Jamie always puts me like 10 through 12.
58:22He has nothing to do with it. I always tease him.
58:25It is random, but you do seem to – I'm always 10 through 12.
58:29And I like – I take Jonathan Taylor and Drake London.
58:33And I'm like, wow, this is a pretty awesome start.
58:36I don't think Drake London's the same as the guy – as really, Nico Collins are the guys you get at the end of round two.
58:44No? You don't think – oh, man. All right.
58:47Well, I think I have – The gap between getting Bijan or Gibbs is wild this year.
58:52Why is London a better pick than Nico? Why is London a better pick than Nico?
58:57Well, I mean, for me, because I have him projected to score 40 more fantasy points.
59:02Let's see. Nico outscored him in 2024. I'm guessing London outscored Nico in 2025.
59:06I can't imagine any other year of their career London outscored Nico.
59:10Nico outscored him by, yeah, 1.7 fantasy points last year.
59:13Nico still outscored him? No. I'm sorry. London. Yeah, yeah.
59:16Nico outscored London by 1.2 point – 1.1 in 2024.
59:19And London won by 1.7 in 2025. So, to me, just based on that sentence, I feel like they're pretty even.
59:25Well, there's also the possibility, like, the best stretch we ever saw from London was panics.
59:30We'll see, but I don't think Tua helps London at all.
59:34We'll see what happens there. Well, London is the guy who has been only good with panics, right?
59:39Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's my point. So, like, if panics doesn't end up winning that job, that is also – Nico
59:46doesn't have that qualifier or that, like, extra factor in there.
59:49It feels like maybe could be a topic for tomorrow's show because I have to go through Heath's rankings and find the
59:56ones I disagree with and argue with Heath. Yeah.
59:59That's what Dan did on Friday's FFT Dynasty. I just disagree with my – Mostly Jalen Hurts.
60:04Yeah. Where do you think Heath has Jalen Hurts ranked as a dynasty quarterback, Adam?
60:09Sixth. Fourth. Oh, that's too high. Fourth. He's got a 30% chance of having one more year as a starting quarterback.
60:15That's what I was saying. That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.
60:19Once the Eagles move on, what's going to happen to this guy?
60:23Who would want Jalen Hurts if the Eagles move on?
60:26Everybody has wildly better options than the guy that wins 70% of his games.
60:30And has been to two Super Bowls and is a top five fantasy quarterback for the last three years.
60:36Besides the last – He's basically just Justin Fields.
60:39Besides the last point you made, those first two points were just QB wins argument, Heath.
60:44I don't know if you're a QB wins guy, but I've grown to think you might be.
60:49The third point, I mean, he's on a specific team that gets him put tush-push touchdowns every year.
60:55Will that continue once he's off that team? So do you think that NFL teams care about QB wins?
61:00Not really. Not sure. I 100% do. No, no.
61:03I think if you had two quarterbacks who had both produced similar numbers of production, and one of them, their team, had
61:10won 11 games over the last three years, and one of them, their team, had won three games over the last three
61:17years, the guy who had won 11 is much more likely to get another chance as a starter.
61:22If they had the same numbers? I don't know.
61:25I don't see how they could have the same numbers.
61:28One would win three and one would win 11.
61:31Probably not. But also, I don't know if these teams are looking at numbers as much as they're basing it on their evaluation of the tape.
61:39I agree with you, though, Heath. I mean, yes, if they had the same numbers and one guy won 11 games, yes, he would have the same numbers.
61:47He's looked amazing, so good for him. He's like a big-game quarterback.
61:51Yeah. Can you do it without A.J. Brown? That's a big question.
61:55Well, it's not just A.J. Brown. It's Jordan Mylott.
61:58It's Lane Johnson. It's Jason Kelsey for most of his career.
62:01It's the best roster in the NFL by far from Howie Roseman.
62:05And it's not even close. Every single year. He loved Howie Roseman.
62:08I mean, look at the team. Look at their roster.
62:11Look at their defense. It's obvious. But he really whiffed on quarterbacks.
62:15Two stud receivers and Barkley. It literally just doesn't get better.
62:18He has by far and away the best supporting guests in the NFL.
62:22You just have to wonder, Heath, how many quarterbacks would thrive in that offense.
62:27Right. We would hope it would be pretty much most of them.
62:30Can you even just imagine Justin Herbert in that offense when their O-line is healthy?
62:35Oh, man. Justin Herbert. Herbert in that offense. If he could just get some good players.
62:40Well, now he does. And you're about to see what it's going to look like.
62:45All right. So, Heath, every quarterback is a free agent.
62:48You're an NFL GM. Actually, no. Only two quarterbacks are free agents.
62:51Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert. Which J-H are you going with?
62:55What's the rest of my team? What's my offensive coordinator?
62:58What offense does my offensive coordinator want? No, you pick the coordinator after the quarterback.
63:02They both have the best offensive line. I'm just picking the quarterback at the start.
63:07I'd probably take Herbert. Okay. Okay. But I think that we have, for his entire career, acted like Justin Herbert.
63:13Made excuses for Justin Herbert. And discounted everything good Jalen Hurts has done.
63:17I'm pretty pro-Hertz. I don't think everyone discounts. He was so bad last year.
63:21Jalen Hurts. There are a lot of Jalen Hurts people like you who like him.
63:26I like him, too. Most of them live in Philadelphia, but you don't.
63:30You're one of the exceptions there. I think there's a 30% chance that he's not on the Eagles next year.
63:36Maybe I went too far saying he won't be a starting quarterback, but things could be.
63:41If he's not on the Eagles, his fantasy value is beyond tanking.
63:45Can we at least. I don't know about that.
63:48Beyond tanking. No, just from where it's at now to where it's going to be.
63:52Like if we say like he's had him as his QB four in dynasty and you said six, Adam, or that was your guess.
64:00I don't know where you'd have him, but let's say it's in that range of four to eight.
64:05Any other team, his his dynasty value, it's dropping by at least five, six.
64:09Dan, you're starting a new team and you can have 22 year old Jalen Hurts to start your franchise.
64:15Or you can have 22 year old Daniel Jones or you can have 22 year old Jackson Dart.
64:21It's Dart for me. It is though. I'm going to go with Hurts.
64:25It's close between Dart and Hurts for me. Okay, wait.
64:28One more question. You can have those three quarterbacks or 22 year old Wondell Robinson.
64:32I love Wondell the player. I'm just saying 140 targets in two years in a row and now gets the same OC who got him those.
64:40Like that's pretty much printing. All right. We got to go.
64:44We'll talk to y'all tomorrow on Venice Football Today.
64:47See you later. On podcasts. Are you really buying a car online on AutoTrader right now?
64:51Really? At a playground? Yeah, really. Look at these listings from dealers.
64:55Wow. Your search can really get that specific. Really?
64:58And you just put in your info and boom.
65:01Cars in your budget. Mom needs a second, honey.
65:03You can really have it delivered? Really. Or I can pick it up at the dealership.
65:08One sec, sweetie. Mommy's buying a car. Mommy, look.
65:11Uh, I think your kid is walking up the slide.
65:14Kyle, again? Really? AutoTrader. Buy your car online. Really?
