PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Safest Floors in Rounds 1 and 2 (05/28 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
53 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 28, 2026
Published
Thu, May 28, 2026
21
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh JacobsJonathan TaylorJosh AllenA.J. BrownAmon-Ra St. BrownBijan RobinsonCeeDee LambChristian McCaffreyDaniel JonesDe'Von AchaneDrake LondonGeorge PickensJames CookJustin Jefferson
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveRole0:07
A.J. Brown is expected to be traded, but currently, the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots are not close on trade compensation.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveRole0:43
Amon-Ra St. Brown has shown great consistency over the last three seasons and is expected to maintain his target volume.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveProjection0:13
Bijan Robinson was RB2 per game last season, indicating strong performance potential.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection0:24
CeeDee Lamb was wide receiver 10 per game last year, but his performance was impacted by injuries, and he has had one standout season compared to several average ones.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveProjection0:37
Christian McCaffrey has averaged over 20 PPR fantasy points per game in his last three healthy seasons, showcasing his high scoring potential.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveInjury0:04
Daniel Jones participated in individual drills in OTAs as he prepares to come back from his Achilles injury, which is encouraging.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveInjury0:33
Devon Achan has a shoulder injury but hopes to be ready for training camp.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveUsage0:29
Drake London has consistently received 9.3 targets per game over the last two seasons, making him a reliable option in PPR formats.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveBreakout0:43
George Pickens has shown potential to be a breakout candidate, especially if he can avoid off-field issues and maintain his performance level.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveProjection0:24
James Cook averaged 19.2 points per game if excluding week 18, indicating strong potential for the upcoming season, especially with Joe Brady as the new offensive coordinator.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveRole0:22
Despite concerns about the Colts' offensive regression, Jonathan Taylor's role as a key player remains intact, and he has the potential to lead the league in rushing if healthy.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:28
Jonathan Taylor has only had two standout seasons in six years, raising concerns about his consistency and performance.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection0:43
Josh Allen has consistently been a top three quarterback, making him a reliable choice for fantasy managers.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:44
Josh Allen is the number one fantasy quarterback going into the season, with a track record of being a top three quarterback almost every year since his rookie season.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveInjury0:13
Josh Jacobs will not be charged for the domestic violence incident he was arrested for, but there is still uncertainty regarding potential future charges.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:47
Josh Jacobs is expected to continue handling a workhorse role in his age 28 season, having averaged almost 20 PPR points per game through the first half of last year.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:49
Josh Jacobs' current legal situation could impact his floor, but if he plays 17 games, he is still a strong option.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection0:30
Justin Jefferson's career performance and the potential for a quarterback upgrade make him a safe option, despite competition for targets.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue0:43
Kenneth Walker's current ADP reflects uncertainty, but he remains a solid player with potential for fantasy production.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveBreakout0:44
Puka Nakua has shown elite performance, finishing as wide receiver one in his last eight games with a pace for 189 targets and almost 1,800 yards.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveRole0:40
Saquon Barkley is expected to have a significant role in the offense, particularly in the passing game, which could lead to increased fantasy production.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:56Hey, before we jump back into the show, let's take a quick break.
1:00But not just any break. This is a refreshing break with Snapple.
1:04We all know about Snapple's iconic real facts. So let's take a minute to go over some of my faves.
1:11Snapple real fact, 1-9-8-3. The first player drafted to play pro football never played in the league.
1:17Snapple real fact, 1-1-1-9. The Grand Canyon could hold about 900 trillion footballs.
1:21Snapple real fact, 2-0-6-4. The first college football game broadcast on TV was on September 30th, 1939.
1:27Snapple real fact, 1-8-9-6. The tradition of playing football on Thanksgiving originated with college football in 1876.
1:32So grab a Snapple, take a second, and enjoy the moment.
1:36Because let's be honest, this might be the most refreshing part of your day.
1:41Snapple, make your break more interesting. All right, now let's get back to the show.
1:46This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!
1:50Can you believe this? You had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
1:55Off to the races! And he stays at his feet!
1:58He's just gonna go the distance! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
2:03Looking at the safest floors in rounds 1 and 2.
2:07You're like, oh, I'm hunting around St. Brown. He's super safe.
2:10Well, yeah, you're probably right. But I'm gonna poke holes in the argument anyway.
2:15Jonathan Taylor's gonna get 330 carries. Super safe. You're probably right, but we'll poke holes in the argument.
2:21Anyway, Puka Nakua, Jameer Gibbs, who's got the safest floor amongst the first four players being drafted.
2:27What about round two? What about Saquon Barkley, Trey McBride, who's got a safer floor there?
2:32That's what we're talking about on today's show. We also have an update on the Josh Jacobs situation and Devon Achan's shoulder.
2:40And Dave Richard is here and Heath Cummings is here.
2:43Jamie should be here soon. Oh, Jamie has entered the studio.
2:47Hello, Dave Richard. What's up, kid? Dave repping his Chicago White Sox shirt.
2:51Baseball's back! Yeah. What's his name? In my life.
2:54Morikama? Murakami. Murakami. Yes. 20 home runs. Pretty good.
2:57Jamie, hello? Heath is on mute. Heath is on mute.
3:01I'm having a conversation with somebody else in the room right now.
3:05Oh, God. All right, well, now he's gonna talk to all of you.
3:09All right, let's get right into it with the news and notes.
3:13So right now, Josh Jacobs will not be charged for the domestic violence, what he was arrested on, domestic violence a couple days ago.
3:21But that doesn't mean that he won't be charged at some point.
3:25So it is a big, I don't know, right now.
3:29A lot of potential outcomes for Jacobs. And we'll leave it at that.
3:33Devon Achan has a shoulder injury. He hopes to be ready for training camp.
3:38Dave, you're gonna go to Dolphins mini camp next week, where you will not, most likely, you most likely will not see Devon Achan play.
3:46No, but hopefully we'll get an idea of the basics of this offense and whether or not there will be a lot
3:54of running back involvement in the passing game, because that's clearly something we're worried about with Achan.
3:59Jamie, you are going to Colts mini camp, where you can see Daniel Jones play.
4:04Are you excited? I am not. You are? Surprise!
4:07Pack your bags. No, you're not. But Daniel Jones participated in individual drills in OTAs as he is preparing to come back from this Achilles injury.
4:16Yeah, I mean, look, it's... Anytime you're seeing... Same thing with Patrick Mahomes.
4:21You're seeing these guys ahead of, or at least ready to get started coming off significant injuries, that's encouraging.
4:27So I think in the case of Daniel Jones, and unfortunately, Alec Pierce was not practicing, but in the case of Daniel
4:34Jones, you want to see him on the field.
4:37You want to see him good to go. You want to see what he looked like at the start of the last
4:45season and hopefully the same thing for the rest of this Colts offense.
4:49Heath, if you could pick one training camp or one mini camp to go to, what would it be?
4:56I can pick one mini camp to go to.
4:59I think I would go to the Raiders. Oh, that's a good one.
5:03Okay. Well, you could go to the Eagles and see A.J.
5:07Brown and go to the Patriots and not see A.J.
5:10Brown. Remember, we're expecting an A.J. Brown trade maybe as early as June 1st, but right now the two teams, Philadelphia and
5:18New England, are not particularly close on trade compensation for Brown, according to Ian Rappaport.
5:23The Chargers, both of their offensive tackles who were hurt last year were Sean Slater and Joe Ault.
5:29Those two guys are trending toward being ready for training camp.
5:32And a trade that doesn't matter for fantasy, Seattle acquired wide receiver Irvin Charles from the Jets for a conditional seventh round
5:40pick that is a special teams trade. Heath, FFT Dynasty promo, go!
5:44Yeah, we've got a super flex startup mock draft that you are refusing to participate in coming up on Friday.
5:51It's going to be a blast. I have physical therapy.
5:54I'm very sorry. I can't participate in it. Is it a tennis injury or a softball injury?
6:00It's in every... I'm in my 40s injury. Okay.
6:03How was your doubles match? I'll get out of that.
6:06Those matches were tough. It was tough. We won 7-5, 6-4.
6:10It was hot out last night. It was real...
6:13I love matches like that. I love the... Got to grind it out.
6:17It was a lot of fun. Well, it's because you're such a great athlete.
6:22Yeah. Compared to, you know, in a 40 and over league where you're 41 years old, yeah, you should be a pretty good athlete there.
6:30And who was this that told you you're a great athlete?
6:34My captain. Look, I get to a lot of balls.
6:38I don't know what to tell you. Like Tom Hanks' captain or like Captain America?
6:43Like who's your captain? Tennis captain, Joe. Joe, the tennis captain.
6:46Joe, the tennis captain, yeah. So, Dave, we got a fan mock draft going on?
6:51We do. We do. We've been talking about these fan mock drafts and you can see the results of the first round right here.
6:59You can see that it's live. These are 12 FFT listeners, viewers, audience members who are participating.
7:05One QB, two running backs, two wide receivers, two tight ends, two flex spots, full PPR.
7:11And an interesting curveball was thrown at 102. If you can see it on the screen.
7:16Yeah. JSN taken ahead of all the other wide receivers and ahead of Jameer Gibbs in that spot.
7:22May we all be so lucky to pick third and have one of Gibbs or Bijan fall to it at third overall.
7:29Well, I think when we talk about the safest floors, it maybe will help people decide who they want to pick number
7:37one because all these guys are going to have high upside.
7:41And then we're going to figure out, hey, maybe who's the safest in this group?
7:46Maybe that's who I'll take number one. Of course, you can all go about it from your own different strategies, different viewpoint.
7:53But yeah, I mean, I'm going to... So when we did the highest upside, we grouped them by position.
7:59In this case, we're going to group them just by groups of four.
8:04So let's take a look at the safest floors in round one.
8:08We can... Just to make sure nobody's confused, we'll get rid of the draft board because we're using ADP, not the current draft.
8:16Round one... You know what? Actually, Dave, real quick.
8:19How many more of these fan mocks are you going to do?
8:23As many as humanly possible. Okay. And do you want to tell people...
8:27Between now and let's say mid-July. Do you want to tell people how to get in and all that?
8:34I still have a nice long list of fans who are interested.
8:38However, if you do want to participate in a fan mock draft or a second fan mock draft, if you've already participated
8:45in one, email me, drichard at cbs.com. Put fans only mock draft or something like that.
8:50In the subject line. And we'll put you on the list.
8:54We're doing a couple of these a week. Okay, cool.
8:57All right, here we go. Group one. So again, just using CBS ADP, four picks at a time.
9:04Who has the safest floor? Jameer Gibbs, Bijon Robinson, Jamar Chase, or Puka Nakua?
9:08Jameer Gibbs, Bijon Robinson, Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua. Who has the safest floor, Heath?
9:13Not Puka Nakua. I would say it is Jameer Gibbs.
9:16Why not Puka Nakua? The off-field stuff? Isn't he currently in a rehab facility of some sort?
9:22I thought he may have been out of that by now, but is it that's where you were going?
9:28Just the off-field stuff? Man, I think he has the most injury concern of the four.
9:34Okay. So Gibbs, Bijon, Chase, Puka. Heath says it's not Puka.
9:38It's Jameer Gibbs. Jamie, what do you say? That's Jamar Chase.
9:41That's Jamar Chase. Dave? I don't think a running back is the right answer for almost any of these, just the nature of the position.
9:50I will say Jamar Chase as well. I love that he's had double-digit targets on average each of the last three years.
9:57It might even be longer than that. Again, I talked about this yesterday.
10:02I know you weren't on the show, but I don't know about right at the very top of the draft.
10:08But in recent years, more than five years of data, at least going into last year, running back was safer than wide receiver.
10:16Or at the very least, I can say, there was no clear evidence that wide receiver was safer than running back.
10:23And this was based on how many of the guys who were drafted as top 12 options finished as top 12 options.
10:31You know, I think we kind of make, it's overblown that, oh, running backs, they get hurt all the time.
10:37Wide receivers get hurt too. Wide receivers are bust too.
10:41Just go look at ADP from last year. You had CeeDee Lamb.
10:45You had Justin Jefferson. Who else? Malik Neighbors. Malik Neighbors.
10:48And those guys were, those guys were all bust.
10:51So, to various degrees. So, I don't know. I don't know that I go that route anymore, Dave, that running backs.
10:58I'll tell you what, the answer for me was not necessarily just because of the risk of the position.
11:05But there's a track record with Jamar Chase that's a little bit better than the two running backs.
11:11So, for me, that's why, you know, you kind of know what you're getting with him.
11:16Like, Jameer Gibbs could be awesome. I mean, I think we're all anticipating that.
11:21But, you know, there's some changes. Offensive line is, I think, I don't want to say worse, but could be worse.
11:28We lost a lot of, you know, names at least.
11:31And Bijan has a new coordinator, you know, new coach.
11:35Like, that could be worse. Like, there's nothing changing for Jamar Chase.
11:39And he's pretty awesome. So, I mean, I don't have him ranked the highest of the three.
11:44But I think just looking at terms of who's the safest floor, to me, it's Jamar Chase.
11:50Jamie, I think I'd take him. I guess. He's the highest for me of these wide receivers.
11:56Well, the wide receivers. But I think, I mean, I agree that he has the safest floor.
12:02And that makes me want to take him number one overall, especially when you factor in the running backs at the end.
12:09Well, Nico Collins is there, so I really like that.
12:12But the running backs at the end of round two, still pretty good.
12:17But let's not factor that in. Anyway, Heath, you want to expand on this here?
12:22Yeah, I just, and I think we're probably doing the same thing we did with upside and trying not to talk too much about injury.
12:30But I do think that the fact that Chase has to worry about two people getting hurt, and I'm not sure Jameer
12:38Gibbs does, probably evens the injury odds, if Gibbs is more likely.
12:42I think they've both missed two games over the last three seasons.
12:46Chase had an injury four years ago. So I think they're pretty close in terms of injury risk.
12:52They're both on awesome offenses. I feel more confident that Gibbs is going to score double-digit touchdowns.
12:58And maybe the question in terms of statements floor is just, are you in a half PPR or a full PPR league?
13:05And in half PPR, it's Gibbs. And in full PPR, it's Chase.
13:09Okay. So here's a great stat on Gibbs. I'm sure I'll be giving it a lot.
13:14He scored 13 rushing touchdowns last year, and he was RB3 per game at 21.7 fantasy points per game.
13:21Very close to Bijan Robinson, who was RB2 per game.
13:24Jameer Gibbs had four goal line carries. David Montgomery had 13.
13:28That's just, and he still scored 13 rushing touchdowns.
13:31Can you imagine his touchdown potential if he starts getting 75% of the goal line carries?
13:36No votes for Bijan here as the safest. And Puka Nakua, I mean, Puka Nakua has been in three seasons, wide receiver
13:44six, wide receiver four, and wide receiver one per game.
13:47And, you know, I could get into more numbers, but he was a little bit hurt at the beginning of 2024.
13:54Sorry. But in his last eight games, when he played his normal snap share of 2024, he was on pace for 189 targets, almost 1,800 yards, 142 catches.
14:04And then he finished as wide receiver one. So it's a season and a half of him being this elite now for Puka Nakua.
14:12So these are all great options, obviously. But just throwing some numbers out at you.
14:17All right. That's the first group. We'll go to the second group in a moment.
14:22We'll take a break. When we come back, who's the safest?
14:26JSN, Amon Ross St. Brown. Could get some good debate there.
14:29Christian McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey has averaged 20.6, 24.7, and 24.5 PPR fantasy points per game in his three healthy seasons with San Francisco.
14:37Or no, his last three healthy seasons. One of them was with Carolina and San Francisco.
14:42And Jonathan Taylor is also in this group. Who's the safest when we come back?
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17:30Our next group of four, five through eight in ADP, is JSN, Amon Ross St.
17:35Brown, Christian McCaffrey, and Jonathan Taylor. JSN, St. Brown, McCaffrey, and Taylor.
17:39Dave, who's the safest? I would go with Amon Ross St.
17:43Brown. The consistency over the last three seasons has been great.
17:46The target volume has been actually a little up and down for him over those three seasons, and he's still come through.
17:54He's not a 30-year-old running back coming off of 450 touches.
17:58He's not a running back at all, and he's not a wide receiver that's just had one amazing year.
18:04I think that he's the guy, if I'm really trying to play it safe, he's the one I'm earmarking from this for,
18:11and I don't think it's even close, to be honest.
18:15Really? Okay, so you say St. Brown, and it's not close.
18:19It's not who I'm taking at five overall. Again, this is the same thing that we just talked about with Jamar Chase,
18:26but I think if you're just, you don't want to lose your draft in round one, even with Drew Petsing coming in
18:33as the new play caller, I don't think St.
18:36Brown's leaving the field that much. I don't think his target volume is going to dip that much.
18:42I'm not even sure it's going to dip at all.
18:46I think he's just too good, and so that's why I think he's the safest of this foursome.
18:52Jamie, who's the safest? St. Brown, JSN, McCaffrey, or Taylor?
18:55Yeah, it's St. Brown. I mean, again, resume speaks for itself.
18:59He's been just absolutely amazing since he stepped in the NFL and just continues to get better and play at a high level.
19:07I think in the case of JSN, he definitely has the higher ceiling and probably the highest ceiling of all these guys,
19:14especially when you factor in what the running back room could look like for Seattle if Jadarian Price is not good and
19:22they have to throw the ball more. But I mean, look, St.
19:26Brown's resume is just impressive. So in terms of floor, he's better than these other three.
19:31Heath? It's a clean sweep, and I would take St.
19:34Brown at fifth overall, and I would say, since everybody agrees on who has the highest floor, I'll say that Jonathan Taylor has the second highest floor.
19:43So you'd take St. Brown over JSN? I would.
19:47Okay. You know, McCaffrey is, I think the numbers I gave right before the break, 20.6, 24.7, 24.5 PPR fantasy points per
19:54game in his last three healthy seasons, with 2024 being an exception.
19:58We played about three and a half games. You know, I don't think anyone has that floor.
20:04So why is the answer not McCaffrey? Because you can say over and over and over again that we're not going to
20:11talk about injuries, but if we're comparing Christian McCaffrey to three guys with almost no injury history, it's because of injury.
20:18Yeah. Okay. You say Jonathan Taylor is number two.
20:21I think, though, it's just important to note when you look at Taylor, he's played, what's, has he played six seasons?
20:28Five seasons? How many seasons for Taylor? He's only had two.
20:32What's that? I think he's going into year six.
20:35It's weird. Why do I have him as going into year seven?
20:39Am I crazy here? One, two. Yeah, he's played six seasons?
20:43That's weird. Yeah. He's 27 years old. He's only had two standout seasons.
20:47And, you know, for fantasy. There have been some extenuating circumstances, injuries, a holdout, splitting carries with Zach Moss after the holdout, that type of thing.
20:56But he's only averaged more than 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game twice in six seasons, Heath.
21:02Should we be concerned about that? I would argue that the year that he averaged exactly 17.6 fantasy points per game was also a standout season.
21:10But, like, I think that's a pretty fan... I'm not ready to say that JSN's floor is 17.6 fantasy points per game.
21:18Okay. Agreed. Or higher than. Would you say that about Zane Brown?
21:22Yes. Yeah. That's why he's first. Would you say that about McCaffrey?
21:26I... No. Okay. Okay. All right. Should we move on?
21:29Anything else to say about this group? All right.
21:32You know what? Let me just bring up one more thing on Taylor.
21:37What if I took this approach? Because, like, I am afraid of the Colts in general.
21:42I just... I'm just afraid of the Daniel Jones factor here.
21:46He's got such a history of following up encouraging seasons with absolutely terrible seasons, and he's coming off a torn ACL.
21:53Sorry, torn Achilles. So, if the Colt... Are you...
21:56How concerned should we be about the Colts taking a big step back?
22:00Because remember when we talked about those running back busts on yesterday's show, Jamie?
22:05Some of them we talked about over the last 10 years running backs who were drafted as RB1 or 2 who were busts.
22:13Some of them were on teams like Saquon Barkley last year, like Austin Eckler a few years ago with the Chargers.
22:20They were on teams that really regressed offensively and that pulled them down a little bit.
22:25Is that a concern for you with Jonathan Taylor?
22:28I mean, slightly, but I think just looking at what this team looks like, you know, clearly they have...
22:35I don't want to say stripped down their receiving core, but, you know, they didn't really do anything to enhance their receiving core.
22:43They took away one of their better players and just paid one guy to, you know, stay.
22:48And so, I'm hoping that his role in the passing game maybe gets a little bit better and that sort of offsets
22:56some potential touchdown regression if there is going to be any.
22:59But look, he's been a candidate almost every year of his career and he's been healthy to lead the league in rushing.
23:07He's got an opportunity to still be the catalyst of this team.
23:11You know, they continue to draft these guys, DJ Giddens, two years ago, I forget who it was this year, you know,
23:18these, you know, day three running backs that don't really matter in terms of taking him off the field.
23:25So, it doesn't feel like he's going to lose any part of his role and so, yes, the offense is most likely
23:32going to get worse from where it was at its peak last year because that was, I don't think anybody expected that
23:39and I don't think it's, you know, repeatable. But, that being said, if Daniel Jones is healthy, same offensive staff, offensive line
23:47is still good and he's still healthy and amazing.
23:50So, I think you still look at him as pretty safe.
23:54Obviously, they drafted Seth McGowan in the seventh round.
23:57I didn't have to look that up at all.
24:00Okay, group three is, is CeeDee Lamb who was wide receiver 10 per game last year.
24:05Remember, he left one game, I think, on the opening possession and left another in the third quarter, I believe, against the Lions.
24:13So, CeeDee Lamb, Devon Achan, we spent a lot of time talking about.
24:17James Cook who was RB6 per game but, you know, he played two snaps in week 18.
24:23If you took out week 18, he would have averaged the full 1.1 more fantasy points per game than he did for the full season.
24:31So, that would have brought him to 19.2 points per game.
24:35That's James Cook and Chase Brown. Chase Brown has been very good, you know, when featured with Joe Burrow over the last two years.
24:43So, the group of four here is CeeDee Lamb, Devon Achan, James Cook, and Chase Brown.
24:49Heath, who has the highest floor? I think, I think it's probably Lamb.
24:53It's, it's not Achan. Okay. I do like how, I do like that you're very much, it's not this guy today.
25:00I like it. I like the hard stance. All right.
25:03So, you're going Lamb, there's Achan, Cook, and Chase Brown in this group.
25:08Dave, who has the highest floor? I co-sign with Heath.
25:11It's Lamb, and it's definitely not Achan. Jamie, is it a Lamb, Lamb kebab here?
25:16I think it's James Cook. Okay. Oh, Cook and Lamb.
25:20All right. Sorry. Go ahead. Why is it James Cook?
25:23I mean, you've seen what he's been in this offense the last two seasons, and now you're giving Joe Brady the opportunity
25:30to be the head coach on top of the play caller.
25:34And so, Lamb is obviously great, but what we saw last year when there was somebody of a great talent opposite him, it was frustrating.
25:43And so, I think just looking at what the offense in Buffalo is, like, it's the James Cook show.
25:49And so, I just feel a little bit safer with him than I do with C.D.
25:54Lamb at this point, knowing that if George Pickens shows up on time and doesn't have a holdout, he was better than C.D.
26:02Lamb as a fantasy receiver last year. I know some of that's just touchdown, touchdown, the touchdown production and obviously the games
26:10that Lamb missed factored into that, but, I mean, Pickens is pretty awesome.
26:14So, it just makes me a little bit nervous that C.D.
26:18Lamb has had one amazing season and then several, yeah, he's good.
26:22Yeah, I'd like to have my fantasy team, but we've been chasing that season for a couple years now.
26:28I think C.D. Lamb, I'm glad you brought that up.
26:31It kind of reminds me of Jonathan Taylor and this is kind of, this is the whole point of Acer stats, right?
26:39Because C.D. Lamb 2023, was he wide receiver one that year?
26:43He was amazing. Yes. Right. So, he averaged almost 30 PPR points per game after the bye right here.
26:49But then in 2024, it was disappointing, but Dak Prescott got hurt and Dak Prescott didn't really play that well, but just
26:56in the games with Dak Prescott, C.D. Lamb averaged 19.2 PPR fantasy points in 2024.
27:01And then last year, you know, they bring in Pickens and in the last 10 games of the year, Lamb was only
27:09wide receiver 13 per game, but he was on pace for 156 targets.
27:13He unfortunately had only five, he was on pace for only five touchdowns, but had a 26% target share.
27:20So, I think it's like, you're right, he's only had that one, you know, pop year, but he's had, he's had that,
27:27like that, that year, that half a season with Dak Prescott in 2024, he was also amazing.
27:33So, I think that that makes him a bounce back candidate.
27:37However, you could, you could also say, Heath, you could say, well, he did all that without George Pickens and we saw
27:44him with George Pickens and it's a different story.
27:47Yeah, I think that's, that would be the argument against CeeDee Lamb.
27:51I guess, from Cook's perspective, it is, are they serious about actually throwing the ball more?
27:56Does the fact that they added a wide receiver one in DJ Moore mean that maybe we get 550 pass attempts from
28:04Josh Allen and we haven't really seen James Cook have the involvement in the passing game we would like recently?
28:11He's just run the ball so much and scored so many rushing touchdowns.
28:15What if Josh Allen has a 35 pass touchdown season?
28:18You know, I was thinking, I know they're not in the same group, but I'm going to break the rules here.
28:25Who's safer, James Cook or Jonathan Taylor? Because Cook had 309 carries in 17 games, but in one of those games he
28:33had two carries and that was it and then he left week 18.
28:37So that's a, you know, that's a guy who could be pushing 320, 330 carries.
28:42He had 345 carries if you include the postseason.
28:45Easily a career high. That's something to not forget about with Cook.
28:49Okay, but so maybe you would expect Taylor to have more carries but not that many more.
28:55Maybe you would expect Taylor to have 10 to 12 more catches than Cook.
29:00Tell me if I'm wrong. Maybe. No, but the, you know, the Buffalo offense gives Cook maybe a little bit more security
29:07maybe than the Colts offense although the Colts offense was the number one scoring offense in the NFL when Daniel Jones was healthy last year.
29:16So who's safer to you, James Cook or Jonathan Taylor?
29:19Taylor. It's Taylor. Taylor, but it's close. Okay. All right, let's go to group three and, uh, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, let's
29:26go to group one of round two. Round two, the, it starts with these four players, Drake London, Omarian Hampton, Justin Jefferson and Ashton Gentty.
29:35Safety is, uh, we're getting less safe as we go down the board, obviously, but, uh, Dave, I'll let you kick it off.
29:43Who's the safest? Drake London, Omarian Hampton, Justin Jefferson or Ashton Gentty?
29:47Sticking with the wide receiver theme is for me, it's Drake London, 9.3 targets per game each of the last two seasons
29:54and now he's tied to, it's not a great quarterback combo platter with Tua Tunga-Vailoa and Michael Penix, but it should mean
30:02a lot of volume going his way, a lot of short throws going his way, absolutely much more of a PPR thing
30:09and we could say the same thing for all these receivers.
30:13Um, format definitely matters when we're talking about this, but I think Drake London is going to continue to be a ultra
30:20volume getter in Atlanta and that just makes me feel better about drafting him and knowing what to expect over 16 PPR
30:27points per game each of the last two years.
30:31So it's London for Dave. Again, the other players are Hampton, Jefferson and Gentty.
30:35Jamie, who's got the highest floor who's the safest here?
30:39It's a tough call between the receivers, but I'm going to go Jefferson.
30:43Uh, you know, one bad year on his resume and it was with, you know, maybe the worst quarterback that he's played
30:50with and so quarterback upgrade, I think is going to matter here.
30:54You know, Dave kind of, you know, pushed me in this direction a little bit with his Falcons quarterback situation.
31:01Like they're both sort of uncertain and unsafe to a degree.
31:05Yeah, um, and I think just looking at, you know, again, what Jefferson has done throughout his career.
31:11Um, I think that matters. I think obviously the coaching continuity here matters.
31:15Um, there's more competition for targets for him than there is for Drake London.
31:20So that I think has to factor in. But again, if we're talking about safe floors, uh, Jefferson's resume again speaks for himself.
31:28You're going to hear me say that a lot, you know, so I think what, what he's done and hopefully will continue
31:35to do gives him the opportunity to be safer than Drake London.
31:39again, ceiling, I think Drake London's higher because lack of target competition and if I think it's going to be to it,
31:47but, um, you know, he was still pretty good with Penix last year.
31:51Also, uh, I think the addition of Juwan Jennings is a little bit concerning, but again, in terms of safe floor, I
31:59think just Jefferson's a little bit safer. All right.
32:02Heath, London, Hampton, Jefferson, Gent, who has the safest floor?
32:05It's, um, I'm going to go with London. I think Jamie made some good points on the resume for Jefferson.
32:12I'm just a little bit concerned that Kyler Murray, um, means this is a very low pass offense, volume pass offense.
32:19We saw, like, some of Jefferson's best years have been on teams that are throwing the ball 600 plus times, and I
32:26think Kyler's probably going to run it eight times a game, and so, I've got London projected for three more fantasy points per game than Justin Jefferson.
32:35I don't think his floor could be that much lower to where I'd have to say Jefferson.
32:41Just going to give you, Heath, do you know who historically has thrown the ball more, Stefanski or O'Connell?
32:47Well, they have a lot, a lot of variance in their histories.
32:51O'Connell had 631 pass attempts back in 2022 and only 484 last year.
32:56So, just looking at the last three years, because that's the data that I have right in front of me, it's 554
33:03pass attempts per game for the O'Connell offense and 614 for the Stefanski offense.
33:08That's interesting. Over the last five years, it's, well, it's a combination of two teams for Stefanski, but his pass rate's been,
33:15they've been pretty close to the same. In Minnesota, it was 60.7, although most of that was with, I'm not giving a good answer.
33:23O'Connell's higher. O'Connell's the higher one of the two.
33:27Well, not in terms of total pass attempts, maybe in terms of percentage.
33:31that's what I'm looking at. And that's one thing about the Stefanski offense that we'll have to see if it transfers over from Cleveland.
33:39His teams over the last three years have averaged 90 more plays per season than O'Connell's.
33:44Stefanski, even when he has bad teams, even when he has bad offenses, they run a ton of plays.
33:51That's great. That's good stuff. Yeah, right. Very, very, no, it's about league average in terms of actual time between plays, but
33:58he's at 57.5% pass rate, and Kevin O'Connell is at 60.4.
34:02same exact type of time between plays between both of them.
34:06Which running back has a higher floor, Hampton or Gentry?
34:09Gentry. I'm going to say Gentry. I'm going to agree and say Gentry, but I think you can make the case either way.
34:17I can't, it's not that London has been bad by any means, but I can't quite understand why he hasn't been amazing yet.
34:25You know, his last two years, 16.5%, 16.8 fantasy points per game.
34:29You know, it's just, I don't know what's missing.
34:32I talk about it a lot. He doesn't do a lot after the catch.
34:36Say yak is what's missing. And touchdowns. He doesn't have a double digit touchdown season yet.
34:42No, but he had nine in 2024 and 17 games.
34:45Here's something with London over the last two years.
34:48He has had a 33.5% target per out rate, target per out run rate with Michael Penix on the field.
34:55That would probably most years that would lead the NFL.
34:5833.5% target per out run rate with Penix. Without Penix, 25.6%.
35:02I don't know if that's a fluke or not, but he's been so much better when Penix has been on the field.
35:09All right. The next group is the picks. That obviously includes the tail end of 2024, right?
35:15Yeah. When Mooney was the last few games when he was literally the only show in town and Penix was starting.
35:22Penix was a rookie. Okay. I wonder if it's closer.
35:26You just go 2025. It's fine. 2025. It was a 31.5% target per out run rate with Penix.
35:3221.2% without Penix. Yeah, but that's only 104 routes.
35:35That's like two games basically. Yeah, it's too small.
35:38Okay. Next group picks five through eight in round two.
35:41Rasheed Rice, Saquon Barkley, Trey McBride, and Derek Henry.
35:44So what are we considering here in terms of floor?
35:47You know what? Let's just treat Rasheed Rice as if he's not going to be suspended.
35:53He's the easy answer here, isn't he? He's on the field.
35:57Let's just treat him as if nothing has happened.
36:00If you told me everybody, yeah, I mean, but then are we saying that Derek Henry is just not going to have any age concerns if I continued?
36:09No, I think age is different than suspension. Look, Rice, not only has these field issues, he's also recovering from a knee surgery in jail.
36:17So maybe I'm overestimating the safety of it, but over the last three years, you know, last six games of his rookie
36:25year, three games he played in 2024, games he played in 2025, he's been basically the most consistent.
36:31I don't know if this is hyperbole or not, but I feel like he's been, for she writes, the most consistent fantasy player.
36:39This is your argument for Christian McCaffrey being the most consistent player in round one.
36:44What's the argument? It's as if when they're not there, it doesn't matter.
36:48Well, I think that's why Adam loves points per game.
36:52I think no, well, look, you can answer it in both ways, right?
36:56If Rasheed Rice had no off-field concerns, would he be the answer of highest floor amongst Rice, Barkley, McBride, and Henry?
37:03Sure, but you can't say that while he's currently in jail.
37:07Agreed. But what about the knee injury? Does that change his floor and the surgery he just had?
37:13I mean, by all accounts, it seems like it or reports are it's a minor surgery, but he's just rehabbing it in jail.
37:21That's the problem is that I think if he knew he was going to get arrested or incarcerated for violating his probation,
37:28then he would not have had the surgery at the time that he did.
37:33All right, so let's factor everything in then. You know, the injury, the off-field issues.
37:38I mean, Derrick Henry has the safest floor of these guys.
37:41In full PPR? Yes. All right, now, before Dave and Heath answer, I want you all to think about it.
37:48Rice, Barkley, McBride, Henry. McBride's got a pretty good case, I'd say.
37:52We're going to take a break. We'll come back and get some other perspectives after this on Fantasy Football today.
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39:23Okay, Dave. Before you continue, pull up Scott's message.
39:26I didn't know if I wanted to share that on the air, but I saw it.
39:31Oh, Scott, hopefully everything's okay with your wife. Yeah, Scott, thanks for being part of the FFT family.
39:37I'm glad that everyone in the chat and hopefully us on the show have, you know, helped you through it, as you mentioned.
39:45But Scott has a personal situation. We're hoping for the best.
39:49And thanks for being here. Okay. So it's Rasheed Rice, Saquon Barkley, Trey McBride, and Derek Henry.
39:55Who's the safest? Jamie says it's Henry. Dave, what do you say?
39:59I think, again, you can make the case for all four of these guys.
40:03I'm going to go with McBride, assuming full PPR.
40:06Same exact argument I've been making all along. The target volume, I don't think it's going to be as good as it
40:14was previously, but I don't think Mike LaFleur is going to get away from using McBride in his offense.
40:20I am positive he will come up with ways to utilize him.
40:24Not quite the same way that stars like Nakua and Devontae went off in L.A.
40:29It's going to be a little bit different for him, but as long as Brissette's the quarterback, and I think he's going
40:37to be the quarterback for the majority of the year, we've seen a tendency with him to lean on tight ends.
40:44I think McBride's still going to be the safest of the bunch to just load up on targets, get a lot of
40:51catches, and I don't think he's going to score anywhere near as many touchdowns as Derek Henry, but he might score as many as Saquon Barkley.
41:00Last year, he completely obliterated Barkley in that department, and with Rasheed Rice's off field issues, I don't think, I think the
41:07floor is cold, hard cement, like the kind that's in a jail cell.
41:12Oh, jeez. For Rasheed Rice. Heath? I do not think that there's really any floor in this group.
41:18Oh, okay. But I would probably say, I don't know, I'm kind of excited about this, the talk about the Philadelphia offense
41:25and maybe more throws to the running backs, and I'm terrified to say a 33-year-old running back has the highest floor, but I'd probably say Derek Henry still.
41:35I never draft Henry. I just like, every year, it's a bad decision, but I never draft him.
41:41He's 32, by the way. It'll be 33 in January, so we'll give Henry one last.
41:46He's only 32, so he easily has the highest floor.
41:50Yeah. I don't think he'd be my answer, but I'm not sure who it would be, because you make a good point.
41:57I kind of want to say Barkley. He's not going to come off the field much.
42:02I know last year was really bad for Barkley, but at least, like, Henry had 15 catches last year.
42:09Barkley should at least double that, and if they are going to throw to the running backs more, he's got potential for a lot more.
42:17I think the Eagles offense bounces back, so I'm going to say Trey McBride.
42:22Okay. I'll just say, in regards to our set, we make the same argument, and I'm the most guilty of it by anybody.
42:30We make the same argument against Derek Henry every year.
42:33He's not going to catch his ball. He's getting older.
42:36This is going to happen. And every year, he's just the same guy.
42:41What if you knew that the offense was going to change and that they were going to get rid of the fullback
42:48in the offense and that Derek Henry's efficiency without a fullback isn't as good as him with a fullback?
42:55And they don't have Linderbaum. They don't have one of the best centers in the field.
43:00For sure, the middle of their offensive line is going to undergo a change, too, and it's a new offense that they're
43:07going to install, but Henry's been down that road before, and Henry, when he was younger in Tennessee, fullback, no fullback, it certainly didn't matter there.
43:16These are like the little things that I might nitpick Derrick Henry on, but as long as he's in this Baltimore offense,
43:24and they did improve at guard while losing at center, there's still a lot to really love about him.
43:30It's just the nature of the position combined with the fact that he's 32 slash 33 makes me nervous about what that floor could be for Henry.
43:39I don't mind drafting him. I just don't want to reach for him.
43:44Okay. Let's go to the next group here, our last group for today.
43:48Picks 9 through 12 of round 3, round 2.
43:51I'm an idiot, sorry. George Pickens, Ken Walker. I'm going to call him Kenneth Walker.
43:56I always call him Ken. I don't think he wants to be called Ken.
44:01George Pickens, Kenneth Walker, Josh Allen, and Josh Jacobs.
44:04So obviously this ADP is not really. So it's one of the three.
44:08Yeah. But we could do two hypotheticals. We could do Jacobs with no issues and Jacobs as it currently stands because he's a pretty safe player.
44:17That's his appeal, I think. So Jamie, you can kick it off.
44:21Who's got the, boy, it's weird to see Walker with the Chiefs logo.
44:25Who's got the highest floor? Pickens, Ken Walker, Josh Allen, or Josh Jacobs?
44:30I mean, it's obviously Josh Allen. You look at what he's done.
44:34It's, again, resume speaks for itself. He's been a top three quarterback almost every year of his career since his rookie season.
44:41Number one for multiple years. Like, there's nothing to argue against him in terms of floor.
44:47Like, he just, he is the number one fantasy quarterback going into the season.
44:51Okay. So if it's not Allen, who is it?
44:54I mean, then it gets tougher between Pickens and Walker.
44:58I'll probably lean Walker just because of the concern about a potential contract standoff.
45:02Between Pickens and the Cowboys. I know that's not something that's going to help his cause, but he still can't make us
45:10think about it because he wants to. And so just to make a point, I don't know.
45:16I think Walker going to Kansas City is a slam dunk move.
45:20Whether it works out or not remains to be seen.
45:23But you had a team that was 25th and running the ball last year.
45:28They just get the Super Bowl MVP. When he's been the featured guy, he's been absolutely amazing.
45:33We saw that in the playoffs when he was.
45:36If you just take his points per game, 49ers game through the Super Bowl, that's better than what McCaffrey did last year.
45:44And so if that guy shows up on a team that has a quarterback coming off a very significant injury with a
45:51coach that when he's had a good running game and a good running back has been absolutely amazing.
45:57And he's done it with some crappy guys too.
46:00And so here you have this guy that's still in his prime.
46:04I mean, Walker could be the best running back at fantasy.
46:08Winchok. So I would take Walker if I'm not taking out.
46:12But that's a that's the case for his upside.
46:15Sure. But again, OK, so we're just taking the floor.
46:18Right. The numbers when he's gotten carries. So I don't have in front of you, but it was like 17 plus carries in his career.
46:27He's had like 25 of those games. It's like 17 plus fantasy PPR points per game.
46:32Like there's there's no argument against what he's done when he's gotten those touches.
46:37And so you saw the pitfalls with Charbonnet last year and taking him off the field in key spots for the last couple of years.
46:45It's just easy to say, OK, maybe it's Emmitt Johnson.
46:49Maybe it's Brashard Smith. Maybe it's this. Maybe it's that.
46:52Like they paid this guy to be the guy and to really fix their run game.
46:57And I think he's going to do it. Yeah.
47:00Ken Walker is actually never finished higher than 12th per game for a full season.
47:06So we're hoping for he he could be in the breakout column easily.
47:10But right now he's probably close to RB 12 in the, you know, in ADP.
47:15All right. So, Dave, what's your pick? Pickens Walker or Josh Jacobs?
47:19Obviously, Josh Allen would be the answer. I don't love the floors for any of these three guys.
47:25And assuming that we're just going to ignore the events of this week, I'll say it's Jacobs who was almost at 20
47:32PPR points per game through the first half of last year finished up at almost 16 PPR points per game.
47:39That was after his first year in Green Bay when he had 17.2 PPR points per game.
47:45We know that the Packers love to run the football.
47:48We know that the Packers do prefer a workhorse running back.
47:52I think Jacobs is going to be able to continue handling that role in his age 28 season.
47:58And he's got to be there. He's got to play.
48:01And if he's obviously mired in off field stuff, obviously that impacts his floor.
48:06But if we're ignoring that, I think he's got the safest floor of the three.
48:11So just just the stat I gave, I was way off on the games.
48:1637 games in his career. Ken Walker, including the playoffs, has at least 13 carries.
48:2137 games in his career with at least 13 carries.
48:24He's averaging 16.6 PPR points per game in those 37 games.
48:28Wow. That's the floor. That's good. We've seen it in spurts with Walker.
48:32We have not seen a full season of him being great.
48:36And I don't know why that is, but we've definitely seen it in.
48:41You know why? No, I don't. I mean, I think it's banged up.
48:45And when he gets banged up, he's not the same player and he tries playing through injuries and he's just, he's not the same guy.
48:53And that's what you've got to worry about with Walker is that he's got, he doesn't have a track record of like
49:01catastrophic injuries, but he does have a track record of playing hurt, not being at a hundred percent.
49:07And when he's not at a hundred percent, he's like 11 PPR points per game.
49:12He also tries to hit the home run all the time.
49:16I think that's part of his struggles too. It's, you know, the Seattle, the Seattle offensive line was a big improvement in 2025 compared to 2024.
49:24And the chiefs have a really good offensive line.
49:27You know, that's a big plus for him. Heath, what's your take on this group?
49:33Pickens, Ken Walker, Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs will eliminate Allen because he seems to be the answer.
49:38Yes. Um, if Josh Jacobs plays 17 games and it's him, if standing here today with everything we currently know, I would say Ken Walker.
49:47You just think that the contract situation for Pickens and Pickens general history of kind of some, some up and down happiness with the team.
49:55Um, and then Jacobs current legal situation. I think it's Walker.
49:59Okay. So that's it for, uh, this exercise. That was fun.
50:03Good debates. And just again, floor is not the only reason you draft someone upside is not the only reason you draft
50:10someone, but they are obviously big factors. Dave, let's check in on the only fans draft.
50:15How are we doing? It's into round eight. And as you can see on the draft board, very dominant with running backs and wide receivers, especially early on.
50:25Uh, I think some of the quarterback picks are a little bit surprising.
50:29Invite you guys to look at them and maybe find one or two of your own that might stand out to you.
50:37So wait, the running, what'd you say? The running back picks?
50:40Well, I mean, no, the, the quarterback, the quarterback, um, question what's the format?
50:45How many of each position are we starting? Two, two and two flex, one tight end, one quarterback.
50:51Oh, two flex. Okay. Quarterback picks. Those are in pink.
50:54Wow. Josh Allen. First pick around for okay. Burrow Jack.
50:58So then it was Jack. No, then it was Burrow.
51:01Then it was Jackson. Dak Prescott QB four. Drake make you be five.
51:06Jaden Daniels QB six. Caleb Williams QB seven. That's all we have so far.
51:10What do you think? Go get your guy or we have some reaches.
51:15No, I definitely think there were some reach picks among quarterbacks.
51:18The fact that Jalen hurts is still on the board is, is very surprising.
51:23Yeah. No Herbert yet. No Stafford yet. Although I would buy a round eight, Herbert and Stafford.
51:29That might be the time where you start to think about them going off the board, but hurts should be long gone by now.
51:37A-chan went with the third pick of round two.
51:40Jacobs went with the fifth pick of round three.
51:43Bucky Irving, who's been in the news lately with this injury updates, ninth pick of round three.
51:49We're not going to take him there, right? No, not going to take Javante with the fourth pick of round three either.
51:56Oh, wow. Yeah. It's like Javante Williams and Jeremiah Love got swapped.
52:00Javante went with the fourth pick of round three.
52:03Jeremiah Love went in the middle of round four.
52:06It was interesting. How about McBride going almost 10 picks after Bowers?
52:10Bowers at 2.9, McBride at 3.6. Fine. Correct. And the first round basically looked pretty normal except that JSN pick number two.
52:18Mm-hmm. You can watch the results on YouTube after the fact and see how some of our fans only mock drafts went.
52:25Cool, man. Thank you all for participating in these.
52:28We really appreciate your enthusiasm and it's been very helpful and we have good ADP and I love it.
52:35All right. That's Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and Jamie Eisenberg.
52:38I'm Adam Azer. We're going to do FFT Express soon, but if you don't listen to that, have an awesome...
52:45Well, no. If you don't listen to that, then don't have a great weekend.
52:49How about that? Laying that down. Otherwise, have a wonderful weekend.
52:53Talk to you next time on Fantasy Football Today.
52:56See ya. Podcasts. Now streaming only on Paramount+. Chicago.
52:59It's my home. The acclaimed series, The Shy, reaches its final chapter.
53:03If this is Shy, anything's possible. The Shy, the final season now streaming only on Paramount+.
53:09The Shy, the final season is the
