PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today

2026 WR Tiers UNVEILED! Rankings, Projections & Draft Strategy (07/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 14 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Jul 15, 2026

Published

Wed, July 15, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Chris GodwinChristian WatsonDK MetcalfJameson WilliamsKhalil ShakirMalik NabersMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael PittmanMichael WilsonRicky PearsallXavier Worthy

Player analysis

Player insights

Chris Godwin

NegativeProjection21:53

Chris Godwin is ranked low in Tier 7 due to concerns about his health, whether he's still the same player, and uncertainty about Baker Mayfield's ability to support him as a second option in a Bucs offense the analyst is down on.

Insight page

Christian Watson

PositiveProjection17:08

Christian Watson is the most likely alpha in his offense with a clear runway now that Dante Avionwicks and Romeo Dobbs are gone, positioning him for a potentially big year.

Insight page

DK Metcalf

PositiveProjection30:26

DK Metcalf is preferred over Michael Pittman due to more upside, though the analyst acknowledges it wouldn't shock him if Pittman has a better fantasy season.

Insight page

Jameson Williams

PositiveProjection17:38

The analyst is higher on Jamison Williams than his co-host Jamie, ranking him 25th compared to Jamie's 29th, reflecting confidence in the Lions' total pass attempts this season.

Insight page

Khalil Shakir

PositiveDepth Chart27:04

Khalil Shakir is placed ahead of Ricky Pearsall in Tier 7, though the analyst notes the order within the tier doesn't necessarily reflect a strict ranking.

Insight page

Malik Nabers

PositiveProjection17:24

Malik Nabors is a much better prospect than Christian Watson coming off a torn ACL, with potential for a strong season similar to Watson's post-ACL performance, though health concerns make him harder to count on.

Insight page

Marvin Harrison Jr.

PositiveProjection32:13

Marvin Harrison Jr. may not be as productive as Michael Wilson was during his strong stretch last year, with potential target competition from Michael Wilson in the Cardinals offense.

Insight page

Michael Pittman

PositiveProjection29:01

Michael Pittman averaged over 16 PPR points per game in the first nine games last season when Daniel Jones was healthy before Jones broke his leg in Week 10, and may benefit from Mike McCarthy's offense potentially throwing more downfield, though Aaron Rodgers' preferences at 42 years old create uncertainty.

Insight page

Michael Wilson

PositiveBreakout31:49

Michael Wilson could outperform his Tier 7 placement if everything goes right, similar to how he performed last year when someone ahead of him wasn't healthy, and could be better than Marvin Harrison Jr. for targets.

Insight page

Ricky Pearsall

PositiveBreakout28:51

Ricky Pearsall is identified as one of the players who could really outperform his Tier 7 placement if things go right.

Insight page

Xavier Worthy

NegativeBust25:20

Xavier Worthy had a strong playoff finish that pushed him up in ADP, but was a bust, playing only one snap in Week 18 after his late-season surge.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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1:41Get started today. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

1:44What a play! Can you believe this? You have no idea.

1:48It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.

1:53He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

1:59Wide receiver tiers. Does Amon Ross St. Brown belong in the top tier with those first three wide receivers?

2:05Is there Jamar Chase? Jackson Smith and Jigba Pukunakua?

2:08Well, it depends who you ask, because Heath and Jamie have different takes on that.

2:13I'm Adam Azer with Heath Cummings. Hey, Heath. Hey, what's up, Adam?

2:17And Jamie will be joining us shortly. Before we get to the wide receiver tiers, we'll knock out some news and notes.

2:24Gino Smith will not be charged after a woman accused him of assault.

2:28So the police investigated that. There will be no charges, and hopefully that will be the end of that.

2:34Now, the Giants, we got some big news. John Harbaugh did an interview yesterday, or I think it was yesterday.

2:41He did an interview with Heath recently, and he said that Malik Neighbors and Cam Skadaboo are on schedule.

2:47Skadaboo, he thinks, is going to be ready early in training camp.

2:51Neighbors is going to work his way into practice.

2:54He was a little vague on Malik Neighbors, but he feels good about both of these players, about their recoveries.

3:00Quote, you'll see a lot of those guys this season.

3:04Skadaboo, though, further ahead of Malik Neighbors. Let's talk about Malik Neighbors before we get into the wide receiver tiers, because he

3:11has to be one of the hardest ones to tier, of course.

3:15But what do you think about Neighbors right now after these optimistic comments, but still noncommittal comments from John Harbaugh?

3:21Yeah, he was one of the players that I moved down a tier from where he was in my projections just to

3:28try to more accurately rank or show his value.

3:31And his projections have already been impacted by the injury.

3:34So I think Malik Neighbors, if he had no health concerns, is probably a tier two wide receiver.

3:40When we get to, I don't know where he lands in Jamie's tiers.

3:44When we get to my tiers, he will show up in tier four.

3:49Because it's not just when is he ready, but it's when is he Malik Neighbors?

3:53He is tier six for Jamie with DJ Moore, Jalen Waddell, Mike Evans, and Devante Adams.

3:59Yeah, he's lower on him than I am. I have all of those guys in tier five, but a tier below Malik Neighbors.

4:06Yeah, the tier above that for Jamie is Ted O'McMillan, Ladd McConkie, Terry McLaurin, Luther Burden, Garrett Wilson.

4:12That's a mixture of tier four and tier five guys for me.

4:16Yeah, we can let Jamie speak for himself on Malik Neighbors now, but let me bring this up with Malik Neighbors.

4:23I think he's a guy that we all watch, have eyes.

4:26We know he's better than his numbers. His numbers, I feel like they're honestly not that great since entering the NFL.

4:33There have been 121 wide receivers with 50 or more targets in that stretch.

4:38And Malik Neighbors is 73rd in explosive play rate.

4:40And that's kind of what he's supposed to do.

4:43He's supposed to be a big playmaker. He hasn't really been that.

4:47It's been kind of like Garrett Wilson in that regard.

4:50He has, this is an interesting one. He has 71 or more yards in seven games.

4:56He's played 19 games, Malik Neighbors. I'll really call it 18 games that got hurt toward the ACL.

5:02And I think it was meniscus as well in week four.

5:05So 18 games and 71, more than 71 yards in seven of those games.

5:10In those seven games with more than 71 yards, his quarterbacks have averaged 36 pass attempts per game.

5:15Now twice they've been under 30, but you've got games of 41, 40, 37, 49, 34 pass attempts.

5:21Jackson Dart averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game in his 12 starts.

5:25He did leave one of those games early. But I think that, you know, just have to consider.

5:31Jamie, what do you think? Do we have to consider a little bit of a different environment for Neighbors?

5:37Not only coming off the injury, but also they brought in Isaiah Likely and Darnell Mooney.

5:42They did lose Wando, I know. But they have a quarterback who's more likely to run.

5:48So what does that all mean to you as you look at Neighbors?

5:52And again, we talked about what John Harbaugh just said about him.

5:56But your thoughts, sir? I think you have to take into account all of it.

6:01And it's a frustrating situation because, I mean, as we've talked about Neighbors before, I remember asking you this question.

6:07If he had stayed healthy all season and been good, let's just not say great, you know, to keep it in perspective.

6:14But now you have this new coach, this sophomore quarterback, this offensive environment that may not be the most pass-friendly, but still

6:21he's so good as a profile prospect. We're probably not even questioning taking him in round two and maybe talking about him as a round one pick.

6:30So I think if we get positive reports that he's healthy, it's worth the risk in round four.

6:36But I wouldn't take him before that. I don't think he's going to make it there.

6:41Do you? Right now he's 49th. But if he comes off the pup list at some point in training camp, what do

6:48you think will happen to Malik Neighbors' ADP? A full round hire.

6:52Or, I'm sorry, a full 10 picks hire. He'll be in the 3-4 turn.

6:57Okay. He hung around in the 14-team draft I was in last night with other analysts.

7:02I'm trying to think. He definitely did not go in the first three rounds.

7:06Of a 14-team league. That's a 3-0. All right.

7:09We'll keep an eye on it. Meanwhile, George Kittle, he could be ready for week one.

7:14That's what San Francisco fullback Kyle Juszczyk said. And ESPN's Jeremy Fowler thinks that Washington could be a destination for Stefan Diggs,

7:22which I think we said on yesterday's show we would like to see.

7:26He could be going there. But he also thought that right now it doesn't look like Washington is going to be bringing in Brandon Ayuk.

7:34And Luca Evans of the Denver Post thinks that rookie running back Jonah Coleman could have a short yardage role.

7:40And that's not the first time that we have heard something like that about Jonah Coleman.

7:46All right. I think we should just get right into the wide receiver tiers.

7:50Here we go. Tier 1 for you. Jamie has three players and Heath has four players.

7:55And, Heath, you talked about a little conundrum off the air with what to do about Tier 1, which I thought, you

8:02know, both angles, the Chase angle and the St.

8:05Brown angle were fascinating in that. But what were you thinking with Tier 1?

8:10Excuse me. Because you have Chase, JSN, St. Brown, and Puka, whereas Jamie has just Chase, JSN, and Puka and no St.

8:17Brown. So I know it's really bothered you when we've gone through these tiers and Jamie and I's tiers haven't really lined up very well.

8:25And so, like, what I've tried to do through this process is look where the gaps are in my projections.

8:32And if I was doing that, I would have put Jamar Chase in his own tier.

8:37But I remember with the running backs, Jamie just kind of did the round one guys and then the round two guys.

8:44And so I thought, you know, I'll just do the top four all in one tier.

8:49And then I look at our tiers and we're still way off and it didn't work.

8:54But, yeah, I guess the disagreement is whether a Amon Ross St.

8:58Brown belongs in Tier 1. My argument for yes is that he's been a top four wide receiver each of the last three years.

9:06He's, I think, maybe the safest pick in round one.

9:09And we all have him as a top five or six pick in full PPR leagues, I believe.

9:15So if you're in one of the top six picks in a fantasy football draft, you should be in Tier 1.

9:22And, Jamie, you do not have Amon Ross St.

9:25Brown grouped with Chase, Puka, and JSN. I really struggled with it and almost thought that he's going to be in a

9:32tier by himself just because, like, I did it based on the rounds again.

9:36And I have these three picks as top five overall selections.

9:40Munra St. Brown is right behind those guys. But I almost feel like he belongs a little bit closer to the Jefferson-Lam group.

9:47But he really should be, like, just by himself.

9:50He's amazing. St. Brown is. He's been top four overall three straight years, as he said.

9:56Per game, he's been fourth, seventh, and fourth. And the one season where he was wide receiver seven per game was, I

10:03think you could say, the one season where both Jamison Williams and Sam Laporta were healthy for most, if not all of it.

10:10So, I guess that would be a slight knock on Munra St.

10:14Brown. I guess if you were going to look at, if you were making a tier, what's that?

10:20What year do you have him seventh? Per game, 2024.

10:23Okay, I've got him tied for fourth. Per game?

10:26Yeah. Oh, question. Do you have Chris Godwin and Rasheed Rice in there?

10:30Because they played three and seven, or seven and three games, respectively.

10:34Rasheed Rice played four games. Oh, okay. So, I have him on the three games.

10:39Which, because he played like... So, this is Azerstadt and Munra St.

10:43Brown. If you count the guy who played four games, but we're going to pretend like he played three games, then Munra St.

10:50Brown was actually... Come on. He played like no snap.

10:54This is the worst use of Azerstadt in the history.

10:57No, disagree. For one thing, I think there's a question whether we even include guys that played three games.

11:03But when they actually played four, it's third. He didn't play four.

11:07I have to say, the most fascinating thing that we do, by far, is the four of us, with Dave included, and

11:14please make sure you continue to wish Dave a happy birthday.

11:18Yes. The four of us, we never have the same stats.

11:21I know. They're all really close. We never have the same stats.

11:25Yeah, but here's the... So, you have T. Higgins probably playing 11 games that year?

11:30Probably. Probably. I don't know. No, Rasheed Rice played four snaps in week four.

11:34Didn't have a target. Didn't record a stat. Why would I hold that against him?

11:39If I want to get the true representation... Why would you hold that against Amon Rice St.

11:45Brown? In the games... To say he was only wide receiver seven.

11:49In the games where... I mean, look more arguing here.

11:52He's awesome. He's great. He's good. We got 75 receivers to cover, and we're nitpicking on him.

11:57If I were to ask you... That was the year's use of Azar stats in the history of Azar stats, and we should ban them and you.

12:06You're taking it against Amon Rice St. Brown. It's really about Rasheed Rice.

12:10You look a little taller today. What? Did you get a booster seat?

12:15No, I didn't. You look a little taller today.

12:18That's because I'm feeling emboldened by what I've done with Rasheed Rice.

12:21Anyway, my question was, if your first tier was wide receivers that you think could be number one overall, who would you put in it?

12:30These four guys? The three for me. What the hell, everyone?

12:33You would... Like, if you agree with Heath, you agree with Heath that this is a bad...

12:39This is what Azar stats were made for. When a guy plays four snaps in a game, and that would be 25%

12:46of his season, you don't include that in his per-game averages.

12:49If anyone thinks that you should, then you haven't been...

12:53Then we're not friends. All right, moving on to tier two.

12:56Tier two is still going to be wide receivers going in the first round for Jamie at St.

13:02Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson. For Heath, it's not St.

13:06Brown, but it's Lamb, Jefferson, Drake London, Rasheed Rice, and George Pickens.

13:09So, Jamie, is this just the rest of your round one, guys?

13:13Yes. Okay. So, that's St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson for Heath.

13:18St. Brown's already covered in tier one. Lamb and Jefferson are in this tier.

13:22Lamb at the top, Jefferson at the bottom. But you do have Drake London, Rasheed Rice, and George Pickens.

13:28Are those round one caliber players for you? These are 16 to 17 PPR fantasy point per game wide receivers for me.

13:35So, again, I'm kind of doing this by where the breaks in the projections are.

13:40And Justin Jefferson is just right at 16 fantasy points per game, I think, in my projections.

13:4615.8, 15.9. Drake London is, you know, just a little bit over 17.

13:50Jamie, you have just Lamb in this tier, whereas Heath has Lamb and Pickens in this tier.

13:56Pickens is in your next tier, Jamie. But I guess you see some separation between the two Cowboys receivers.

14:02Yeah, and a lot of it is based on hope, you know, because Pickens was better than him last year.

14:08But the hope would be is that, you know, Lamb performs like he's capable of.

14:13And we saw it at the start of the season.

14:16You know, we had a lot of unlucky touchdown scenarios for Lamb last year because he did get more end zone targets than Pickens.

14:24But I struggle really with Lamb versus Jefferson. And what it comes down for me is the quarterback.

14:30If I had more faith in Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson's resume is better than CeeDee Lamb's.

14:35And so I don't I said this, you know, a lot of times the last couple of years, like I feel like

14:42we're chasing the end of the 2023 season still for CeeDee Lamb.

14:46And he's been great. Don't get me wrong. But like that 10 game stretch has put him in a stratosphere that I

14:53don't think he's ever going to get back to, especially with Pickens on the field.

14:58So Jefferson's talent, like you put Jefferson on the Cowboys.

15:01You put Jefferson with any safe quarterback. I don't want to say competent, but like just safe quarterback like Jefferson's back in the top three.

15:09He's just got that much potential, that much upside.

15:12So I'm hoping that the Kyler Murray, Kevin O'Connell combination is going to be enough to get Justin Jefferson back to at

15:19least the Carson Wentz level that we saw last season.

15:23But even better than that. So I agree with Heath.

15:26I think 16 plus points per game is is the range.

15:30But we know he's got 20 point potential still on any given season.

15:34He's still young enough and productive enough that if the quarterback play is good, he could be great.

15:40OK, we're going to take a break. I want to get Heath's take on Lamb versus Pickens.

15:45And I'll just tell you before we go to break in the last 10 games, not including week 18.

15:51This is when C.D. Lamb came back, but excluding week 18 where they played a half.

15:56C.D. Lamb was wide receiver seven overall in both half and full PPR, wide receiver 11 per game.

16:02No, I always do this. Pickens, I'm sorry. Pickens was wide receiver seven overall, 11th per game.

16:08Lamb was 13th per game and ninth overall. So Pickens was a little bit better.

16:13He averaged 17 points per game. Lamb averaged 16.1 points per game.

16:17Lamb had a 26 percent target share and Pickens had about a 24 percent, 24.2 percent.

16:22Lamb also dominated the end zone targets. He just couldn't catch touchdowns.

16:26It was weird. But yeah, that's how it shook out.

16:29Pickens a little bit better than Lamb in those last 10 games.

16:33I will take a break and get Heath's take on those two Cowboys receivers and more after this.

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19:04Because let's be honest, this might be the most refreshing part of your day.

19:09Snapple. Make your break more interesting. All right, now let's get back to the show.

19:14Okay, Heath, you're up. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in the same tier.

19:18Lamb ahead of him in the rankings, but same tier.

19:21Yeah, and Lamb in round one, Pickens in round two.

19:25So if I was doing it that way, and I probably stretched the projections a little more in this tier to not

19:32have quite as small of tiers, which of course, then Jamie has the smaller tiers, so it didn't work out to serve the purposes I wanted to.

19:40But I've got Lamb for about a point per game more than George Pickens.

19:45I think we'll see more targets for CeeDee Lamb.

19:48I think we'll see that Pickens' targets will be worth more yards, and I would expect Pickens to score more touchdowns.

19:55Okay. All right, let's go to the tier three then.

19:58Bring it up! Tier three for Jamie. It's Rasheed Rice, A.J.

20:02Brown, Drake London, Nico Collins, and George Pickens. For Heath, it's guys that I think you're going to see more in round three.

20:09Zay Flowers, Nico Collins, who's at the 2-3 turn in ADP.

20:13Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, and Devontae Smith. So again, Jamie's tier three is kind of like Heath's tier two.

20:19For Jamie, it's Rasheed Rice, A.J. Brown, Drake London, Nico Collins, George Pickens.

20:23And if you look at that group of five, well, we still don't have A.J.

20:28Brown for Heath. He's still not there yet with him.

20:31And Nico Collins is in tier three for Jamie and tier three for Heath.

20:36But does that mean that Nico is higher for Jamie?

20:39I know you're higher on A.J. Brown than Heath is.

20:42Are you higher on Nico Collins than Heath is?

20:45Do you know? I mean, I would have to say yes, because I would take him over Zay Flowers still.

20:51And for me, he's a round two pick. And I'd take him over Pickens.

20:56So obviously, I'm higher. Yeah, I have Zay at 21, Nico at 22, Olave at 23, Higgins at 24, and Devontae Smith at 25.

21:04So this is the very end of round two for me.

21:07I told everybody, I think, yesterday to go check out the episode Gibbs and I did.

21:13Or it wasn't quite an episode because it was beyond the box score and it was only 20 minutes.

21:19But the player profile that we did on Zay Flowers, I think he became an alpha number one wide receiver last year and nobody noticed.

21:27And Gibbs talked about how he and Dan have watched the film and he's a number one wide receiver.

21:33I believe Matt Harmon had him top five against or fantasy points and Matt Harmon both maybe had him top five against both man and zone coverage.

21:42The past totals last year for Lamar, they're always low, but they were about 15% lower than his career average.

21:48And I don't see anybody that's going to cut into that 30% target share for Zay.

21:53So I'm the high guy on Zay, but these are basically round two wide receivers for me.

21:59Yeah. When he was saying 21, 22, whatever, he was talking overall, not just the wide receiver rankings.

22:05Right. All right. Jamie, anything stand out to you in this, in tier, tier three for you?

22:10Rice, AJ Brown, Drake London, Eagle Collins, George Pickens.

22:13These are all guys that perfectly fine in round two, right?

22:17Yeah. I mean, a outlier would probably be AJ Brown.

22:20And so, you know, the, the hope would be going to New England.

22:24He gets the opportunity to, you know, sort of take a step forward with Drake May.

22:29And I think we expect more pass attempts in this offense from, by comparison to what we saw last year, tougher schedule.

22:37Brown is coming off a disappointing season, but he did have that stretch in the middle of the year where he was

22:44averaging over 19 PPR points per game. And if he does that, he's going to justify being selected in round two.

22:50So I wouldn't give up on AJ Brown. I wouldn't be afraid to take him in the second round.

22:57As you see, I moved him ahead of Drake London.

23:00That's a pretty big move, you know, knowing what London is capable of doing in his offense as well.

23:06And what he accomplished last year when he was healthy.

23:09But I think that the ceiling is a little bit higher for AJ Brown based on his resume and the situation that he's in for this year.

23:18And it's worth saying, like Jamie said, AJ Brown's the outlier.

23:22I think at this point in the industry, like I'm, more people have AJ Brown where Jamie does than where I do.

23:29So I'm probably the guy that's too low on AJ Brown.

23:32And I, I'm, I'm, I'm trying to start to come around.

23:36I'm just not convinced that it's going to be a high volume pass offense in new England.

23:41And I'm not convinced that it's going to be a super concentrated share of targets in new England.

23:47And I do think that like AJ Brown's health is a little bit of a concern.

23:52I think, um, I think it will be pretty concentrated because it was when Stefan Dix was on the field.

23:59You know, he just didn't play that. It's kind of a Josh McDaniel staple.

24:03I, yeah, the, the health thing is, I think completely ignored by people.

24:08I don't know how many times I should say it because it's probably repetitive, but there was a report that the Rams

24:15were out on AJ Brown because they were worried about his knee in terms of trading for him.

24:21And that, that's why the Patriots didn't really, that's why the Eagles didn't really get that much in compensation for AJ Brown.

24:28So I wonder when you get stuff like that, which is shouldn't, shouldn't be discounted, but I always wonder when you get

24:35stuff like that, if it was free agency versus draft, because general managers hold on to their draft picks like they're their children.

24:42And so do they want to part with such huge assets?

24:46Think about Max Crosby, for example, you know, whether he was actually hurt or not, but like if there, if there is

24:53some concerns over injury, like they don't want to give up those future plans.

24:58It's your picks for players that may not help them long-term short-term if they were paying them because we know they can

25:05manipulate contracts and what they have to do. It's a little easier.

25:09I will say that the, like the Rams are the one team that like an entire meme and t-shirts were sold based on their distaste for their picks.

25:18Yeah. I mean, the report was from, they liked giving them up.

25:22Jeff McClain of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Rams were interested in AJ Brown.

25:26They were not satisfied with his medicals. So, um, I don't know.

25:30I, I, as someone who, if I were drafting right now, I probably would have AJ Brown.

25:35He, he might be my most rostered player. Cause I just, I think I'm so high on him.

25:41I, I, it's a risk. It's a risk. I'm hoping that it's more like, well, this sounds mean, but if he's got

25:48any, a knee issue that it's not something that's going to affect him this year, that it might be like something to worry about later in his career.

25:57Would you take AJ Brown over London? If I had 10 drafts, I would take AJ Brown over London six times.

26:04Okay. I hope that answers your question. Uh, difficult call.

26:07All right. Um, uh, okay. Let's go to our next tier and see how many of Zay Flowers, Olave.

26:13This is probably going to be, yeah. Jamie's got Olave, Higgins, Devante Smith, and Zay Flowers in this tier.

26:20That's exactly what he's had in his third tier.

26:22But Jamie has a Mecca, a Buka in this fourth tier.

26:26Heath also has a Buka in his fourth tier, which means he's a little lower on a Buka, which we know.

26:33Um, but Higgins. So when we look at, at Heath's third tier, Jamie's fourth tier, Higgins, Olave, Devante Smith, and Zay Flowers are in that group.

26:41Um, Heath, do you consider those four, Higgins, Olave, Devante Smith, and Flowers, closer to safe or risky?

26:47Um, so I'd like to have a little bit more information on this blood clot situation for Chris Olave.

26:53Um, but if, if that's okay, then I would say probably closer to safe.

26:58Higgins has obviously had some injury concerns of his own, but, but closer to safe than risky.

27:03Higgins, Olave, Devante Smith. How about we go one by one?

27:07You guys both tell me. T. Higgins, sick, closer to safe or risky?

27:11Risky. Probably closer to risky, but it's, it's just barely.

27:14Is that only because of injuries? Yes. Yes, entirely.

27:17Yeah. Well, I guess, and, and Joe Burrow's health too.

27:21Right. You can argue when he's on the field, he's actually one of the safest players.

27:26Um, Olave. It's funny because every concern last year was the concussions and then he plays a full season and it's like, oh, he must be safe again.

27:35I think you have to put him in the risky category because of what he said with the blood clots.

27:41Yeah. Um, yeah. But also in terms of performance for Olave, he does kind of remind, I think a lot of people

27:48of 2024, Terry McLaurin, where a lot of it was the same, except he just scored more touchdowns and you're right.

27:55Like a lot of people, or you like to remind a lot of people.

28:00I don't want to take credit for this. I feel like the comparison is very obvious, quite frankly.

28:06So I don't want to act like, I think you're the one that makes it all the time.

28:11No, Heath does. Okay, fine. Honestly, man. No, I definitely said that once.

28:16Okay. I don't remember all the things I've seen.

28:19I was not trying to take credit for something that wasn't mine, but, um, yeah, I mean, he had 156 targets turned into 1163 yards.

28:27That's not great. Now they draft Jordan Tyson, you know, um, I, I think the difference between Olave and Terry McLaurin, one

28:34Olave is younger to Olave is not threatening to hold out.

28:37Um, but then the bigger difference is it was, it was a full season for Terry McLaurin with Jaden Daniels, right?

28:44Yeah. Like if you just look at what Chris Olave did with Tyler Shuck.

28:49Yeah. He was on pace for 106 catches, 1365 yards and 11 touchdowns in 17 games.

28:54But he also did that as a solo act.

28:57And if you look at the beginning part of the season, again, Tyler Shuck factoring into that clearly because he wasn't the starter.

29:04Um, when Rashid Shahid was on the team, Chris Olave's numbers were dramatically different.

29:09They were, unfortunately, we don't know if that's a Shahid thing or that's a Rattler thing, right?

29:14Cause it's kind of, I don't know if it's a target share thing.

29:19Cause you go back to even the year before when it was quarterback issues still too, you know, Derek Carr, I believe was still there.

29:27Um, and then Rattler took over, but you had Shahid outperforming him in that season before the concussions.

29:32And we know that Jordan Tyson as a prospect is much better than Rashid Shahid.

29:37Yeah. Olave actually had a 26.4% target share with Shahid and then 27.1% after Shahid was traded.

29:43So not a big jump there. Just the quarterback change was different.

29:47Um, all right, let's go to, uh, Devante Smith's risky or safe, closer to risky or closer to safe.

29:53Safe, safe. Zay Flowers. Safe, safe. And this is where I will remind people that Zay Flowers, um, basically had the same

30:00amount of targets per game, two straight seasons, but that was the difference of being a wide receiver 12 per game last year.

30:07And I don't even think he was top 30 the year before.

30:11So that's kind of weird, isn't it? It was 36 per game.

30:15Yeah. I think it's also kind of a weird way to frame it, um, because he had the same number of targets

30:22on 60 fewer pass attempts for his team. And he was much better on those targets.

30:28Yes, he was. All right. And then Emeka, Buka is in Jamie's tier three, Heath's tier four.

30:33If we look at Heath's tier four, what AJ Brown is in this tier.

30:38Um, we talked about him, but you have neighbors, you have burden, you have a Buka, you have McMillan and you have AJ Brown.

30:45And I think what's fascinating is I feel like these five wide receivers are mostly different, uh, in terms of their profiles,

30:53neighbors, burden, a Buka, McMillan and AJ Brown. Do you feel that way?

30:57Do you think they're similar? I mean, I think burden, a Buka and McMillan are united by the second year wide receiver thing.

31:04We're hoping they are the clear number one wide receivers on their team.

31:08We think there's enormous upside, but there is some risk neighbors kind of gets falls into this tier for me because I

31:16don't want to be too high on him. And Brown's kind of in this tier because I don't want to be too low on him.

31:24Yeah. Um, and I guess I still am. So obviously neighbors and Brown are just different, but especially neighbors, he's just, you

31:31know, could be in his own tier. Although maybe neighbors and Brown are united by the fact that we have questions about their knee.

31:39Sure. All right. Maybe they're not as different as I thought, but when you look at burden, a Buka and McMillan, um,

31:46how do you decide between the three of them?

31:49Who's your favorite burden, a Buka McMillan burden for me, Jamie, a book.

31:53Right. That makes sense since he's in this tier for you by the, by himself.

31:58Uh, why burden Heath? Um, because I think the combination of DJ more leaving and having Ben Johnson as an offensive coordinator

32:05and burdens ability to make huge plays gives him more upside.

32:08Why a Buka Jamie? I mean, you look at the first four games of last season and now Mike Evans is gone.

32:16And so, you know, Baker talking about his health, hopefully he's healthy.

32:19You mentioned yesterday, the offensive line and their health, Zach Robinson was able to get as the new offense coordinator, a very quality campaign out of Drake London.

32:29And a Buka may be a more explosive player than Drake.

32:32I don't think maybe he is a more explosive player than Drake London.

32:36Uh, hopefully it'll be more productive than, than London.

32:39That's hard to ask in his second year, but the potential is there.

32:43So, you know, you take a hall of famer off the field and I think a Buka hopefully playing a little bit of a more well-rounded role.

32:52There's a chance for him to be an absolute superstar.

32:55Why McMillan random person who would pick McMillan? Um, I don't know.

32:59I wouldn't pick McMillan, but I guess my argument would be he is the clear number one guy on his team.

33:06And I see, yes, I know that. Okay. Yes.

33:09Like if Jalen Coker is going to out target him and yeah, he really struggled late down the stretch McMillan because Coker was coming on.

33:17Then we got a real problem here, but I don't see that happening again.

33:22Quite honestly, I kind of look at it as Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave, like in that small sample size in 2024, Shaheed was better than Olave.

33:30Olave again, 26.4% target share with Shaheed last year.

33:33So I think McMillan will, will, you know, be the clear number one guy.

33:38Whereas I don't know that's the case for Emeka, Buka and Burden.

33:41But for the record, I would not take McMillan over a Buka.

33:45I don't know about him versus Burden. Super tough call.

33:49Probably, probably not. Um, but yeah, what do you think, Jamie?

33:52He makes me very nervous. I mean, it's not just Jalen Coker.

33:56It's now Brazel, you know, being there. It's a team that despite what may be a lack of talent in the backfield

34:03is going to want to run the ball a lot.

34:06That's Dave Canales' track record. I know he's not calling the plays anymore, but it's still his offense.

34:12And you have the Bryce Young problem, you know?

34:15And so is Bryce Young, does he have the ability to elevate his number one receiver to the fantasy heights that I

34:22think a lot of people hope Terrell and McMillan can get to?

34:26So I think he's, this is the range for him.

34:29I don't see him going past round four. I don't think that you can necessarily make strong enough pro-con arguments for the

34:37guys in Keith's tier that he shouldn't be ahead of some of those, behind a couple of them.

34:42You see he's not in this tier for me.

34:45He's in the next group. Same thing with that list.

34:49You know, you can make strong arguments for and against some of the guys around him.

34:54I just think, and I've said this before, like what you got from him last year, I think is somewhat replicable.

35:01You know, you're going to get right around a thousand yards receiving.

35:04You're going to get eight to 10 touchdowns. You're going to get a healthy enough target share that you'll like it, but you won't love it.

35:13You'll be asking for more. You'll see him do things.

35:16You know, you'll, you'll say this a lot, Adam.

35:19You watch him play football. He looks really good.

35:22Yeah. The numbers just won't back it up. I think unfortunately because the team he's on.

35:27The Garrett Wilson effects. Jamie goes a Buka McMillan burden.

35:30Heath goes burden a Buka McMillan. Next tier, please.

35:33On to tier five. All right. So here we have McMillan.

35:37We have burden in here for Jamie. We also have Ladd McConkie, Terry McLaurin and Garrett Wilson.

35:42McMillan, McConkie, McLaurin, Luther Burden, Garrett Wilson. This is tier five for Jamie.

35:47These tiers match up. Yeah, I love it. Yeah.

35:50Yeah. I love it. We have McLaurin, McConkie and Garrett Wilson in here for Heath as well.

35:55We don't have burden and McMillan, right? Because they were in the previous tier.

36:00But the three in common are Ladd McConkie, Terry McLaurin and Garrett Wilson.

36:04Now, Heath has four more guys that he's grouping with them.

36:07DJ Moore, Jalen Waddell, Devontae Adams and Jamison Williams.

36:10DJ Moore, Jalen Waddell, Devontae Adams and Jamison Williams in a seven receiver tier with McLaurin, McConkie and Garrett Wilson.

36:17Jamie, what is it about McLaurin, McConkie and Garrett Wilson that separates them from DJ Moore, Jalen Waddell, Devontae Adams and Jamison Williams?

36:24I think just a little bit more upside. McConkie, as we've kind of heard from the reports in Los Angeles and the

36:31hope of Mike McDaniel being there and Justin Herbert being healthy, what we saw in his rookie campaign.

36:37I think there's an opportunity for him to get back to producing at a level, especially if they don't do what still might happen and re-sign Keenan Allen.

36:46I think that was a problem for McConkie last year.

36:50McLaurin, you mentioned it. Stephon Diggs. I think there's going to be another pass catcher joining the team prior to week one,

36:57whoever that may be, because they're obviously knocking on doors, whether it was Brandon Ayuk or Diggs or somebody else.

37:03You know, something will potentially happen. Could be another tight end.

37:07Could be Zach Ertz coming back. You know, there just feels like there's another pass catcher coming to Washington.

37:13So that may lower his ceiling a little bit.

37:16But my God, what we saw in 2024 with Jaden Daniels when there was no holdout and you look at the rest

37:23of this receiving core, like I don't think he leads the NFL on targets.

37:27But if they decide to be this very pass happy, friendly team, like Terry McLaurin is going to be up there.

37:34Certainly targets per game if he stays healthy. And then for Garrett Wilson, you know, it's did you ask about Wilson?

37:41Yeah. Um, yeah. Yeah. McLaurin, McConkie and Wilson being a tough one for me because you see the talent, you know, he's

37:48capable of producing like, and I do think Gino Smith is going to help him to what level we'll find out.

37:55But then you've got to factor in like they just added two high profile pass catchers in Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper.

38:02They like Adnanai Mitchell for what that's worth. Like, is there enough targets in this offense for Garrett Wilson to get to

38:09the place he needs to get to? So that's my concern with him.

38:13It's not really a talent thing. You know, hopefully he stays healthy.

38:17We saw it last year averaging over 19 PPR points per game when he was on the field.

38:23Um, but it's just a matter of, is there enough opportunities for him to get those chances?

38:29So the lot later he is, the more excited I'm, I get about him.

38:33But when I see him going around three, I just can't buy into it.

38:38So this is kind of the 12 to 13 fantasy point per game range for me.

38:43And I should say, um, based on my current projections, who's on the team, Terry McLaurin would have been in the tier

38:50above, which maybe would match up better with where Jamie has him with Ted Aroa and Luther Burden.

38:56Um, cause I do have him projected for more points right now.

39:00I'm just really scared that Stefan Diggs or Keenan Allen is going to show up and kind of move him back down into this tier.

39:08I think DJ Moore and Jalen Waddell are kind of the same thing.

39:12Like we're, we're, we've seen these guys look awesome before they are going to, in theory, better situations.

39:18Um, definitely better quarterbacks than they had last year.

39:21And we're hoping that they can be the, like, there's a chance either one of these guys could be the clear number one wide receiver.

39:29And if they are, then I'm too low on them in this tier.

39:33But also they, I'm kind of afraid they won't be.

39:36And that Jalen Waddell and Cortland Sutton just both have like 115 targets because Sean Payton likes to throw it to 17 guys.

39:44And the same thing with Brady. Um, so I think like Moore and Waddell are probably the two for me that I, I really just don't know.

39:53And so I've kind of settled on this 12 and a half point range.

39:57Waddell averaged 13.4 points per game from weeks five through 15 without Tyreek Hill and with Tua Tungabailoa.

40:03But he just had no target competition. And honestly, I was a little disappointed in 13.4 PPR points per game, but they were so run heavy.

40:12They averaged 27 pass attempts per game, or at least Tua did in that stretch.

40:16He's the one guy that just, it, I struggle with so much.

40:20Or one of the guys I struggle with so much.

40:24Just because we're supposed to get excited about players when they join new teams, right?

40:28When these receivers get this compensation and you look at the track record for the majority of them, you know, DK Metcalf may be the outlier.

40:37I don't know if I'm missing somebody, but, um, these guys go to these new teams and Bo Nix has been a

40:44good fantasy quarterback and Sean Payton system has been good.

40:47But despite the fact that they threw the ball 613 times last year, which was top five in the NFL, the guy

40:54that was second in targets had 104. And so like, does that just completely change?

40:59And it's just so concentrated to waddle. And then I'm expecting, I think most people are that Cortland Sutton just goes from

41:06the number one to the number two. And he's been living in that 130 target range in the two years with Bo Nix.

41:14But it's just so hard to expect because there was a report.

41:18I don't know if you referenced this in the last couple of days, Adam, but there was a report.

41:24I think it was on the Broncos website of Evan Ingram looks really good and he's going to benefit from the, the,

41:31the, the attention going to waddle into Sutton. And there's still Pat Bryant and there's still Troy Franklin and there's still this and there's still that.

41:39And they have, you know, all three running backs that they're going to use.

41:44Like, it's just not enough. It's not enough. You know?

41:47So like you'll see in the next year, I agree with Heath, like DJ more for me is, is, is I think

41:54a better fantasy prospect this season than Jalen model because he should get so many target opportunities.

42:00If, if they throw the ball enough. I just got to say, I, I really like not everyone in, on this list

42:07here for Jamie, it's McMillan, McConkie, McLaurin, Burden, Garrett Wilson, for Heath, it's McLaurin, McConkie, Wilson, DJ Moore, Waddle, Adams, Jamison Williams.

42:14I like most of them. I want to be in this tier.

42:18I want to draft a wide receiver in this tier.

42:21And I'm sure I'm going to, you know, I like all of the first four tiers, I'm sure.

42:27But I feel like I'm going to like these guys more than the running backs in this range, quite frankly.

42:34And, um, I still think we're looking at players who have top 12 potential, you know, that's kind of how I look at this tier.

42:42I don't think Jamison Williams does, especially in full PPR, but I don't really think Jalen Waddle does because of the target stuff.

42:49But I really think everyone else on this list, McLaurin, McMillan, McConkie, Garrett Wilson, Luther Burden, DJ Moore, Devante Adams.

42:56I really think every single one of them has top 12 potential.

42:59I mean, I know you always like to say like, that's the place they need to get to for you to want them.

43:07Well, at least that's the way you lean. Not necessarily, but I like it.

43:11If you, these are guys that we're talking about now that are in the late teens, early twenties.

43:17Like if they return there, you know, you get the return on investment that you're drafting them, especially if, you know, from

43:24the way you're describing it would be, you want to go running back, running back.

43:29Essentially, you're running back in your first two running backs, your first three picks.

43:34Like you can get away with that this year easily.

43:37If you love these guys and if they're top 15 receivers, not necessarily top 12, but you're running backs hit, you're going to be great.

43:45Actually, I think it's super important based on the way wide receivers been set.

43:50Certainly last year. I don't know if it's going to repeat, but I think it's super important to have an elite wide receiver.

43:57I would be upset if this was my first wide receiver.

44:01But I definitely want to get one of these guys as my wide receiver two and maybe come back with my wide receiver three.

44:09If I can go like four or five. If you, let's say, go, I'm trying to think how it would work ADP.

44:16If you start with St. Brown and then come back and get Hampton and Hampton and Kyron Williams.

44:21So you go St. Brown, Hampton, Kyron. Receiver, receiver with two of these guys being the next two.

44:27Yeah, I like that. Yep. I wouldn't even be upset if I threw in like a Lamar Jackson in there or something

44:34like that and just had one of these receivers.

44:37We all know you're going to take Joe Burrow.

44:40Anyway, I guess as we try to label these tiers, we still have a lot of upside, at least according to me.

44:47Didn't sound like you guys were disagreeing in this tier.

44:51Sure. Let's take a break and get to tier six and see how many we can get to.

44:56Hopefully at least eight. We'll be right back. This past summer, my wife and I took my parents, our son, and our granddaughter on vacation to Tennessee.

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46:56Maybe I'm running a little bit of a risk here asking this question from the chat of getting off subject, but I

47:03do think it's relevant based on the conversation we just had.

47:07From Scott, what is your lean in the first round, running back or wide receiver?

47:11And my answer would always be best player available.

47:14I do not have a lean, but what about you guys?

47:18Same. Okay. Yeah, you're going to find good players at the position.

47:22Just take the best player. Maybe it depends on where you're picking in round one.

47:27I don't know if you find that maybe the wide receivers or running backs at the 2-3 turn are better.

47:33I think wide receiver a little bit, but not enough.

47:36I mean, look, you've got to know your league.

47:39You've got to know what you're, you know, if you can, you know what the majority of trends may be for the teams in your league.

47:48But I think if you start to just study ADP a little bit and get an idea of the players in those

47:55ranges, which is why, you know, Dave just posted his tears last week.

47:59I'm in the middle of posting mine this week.

48:02I think he's there next week. You get an idea of what you can see, and we're talking about it here on the show as well.

48:10Like, you get an idea of where the ranges are of players.

48:14So, you know, if you have an early pick in round one, do you really want to pass on Chase, Puka, JSN, St.

48:22Brown, you know, those four guys to take one of Gibbs or Bijan, knowing that when you get to that 2-3 turn,

48:29like the running backs may be a little bit better than the receivers that are still on the board.

48:35So it all comes down to, I think, what you're looking at if you're building it out in your head.

48:41But if you go in with the idea of outside of the first, you know, four or five picks, knowing that that's

48:49the range of guys, like if you're the back end of round one and you say, I'm taking this guy, he may not be there.

48:57You're going to, you know, screw yourself over. That's true.

49:00We have a very strong agreement on the top seven picks and even kind of the order.

49:05Like, the first two picks for everybody are running backs.

49:09The next four picks for Jamie and I are wide receivers.

49:12Dave messes that up because he has Jonathan Taylor just ahead of Amon Ross St.

49:17Brown. But he has Amon Ross St. Brown at seven.

49:20So, like, we kind of have a pretty, like, the first half, it's pretty easy to just say, if the two running

49:28backs are there, I'm going to take them. If they're not, I'm going to take one of the four wide receivers.

49:34The back half of round one is a complete crapshoot in terms of running back versus wide receiver.

49:40And you have to make that decision about Christian McCaffrey at some point.

49:44For the record, I don't think I would have the same number two pick as you guys.

49:50You'd put Chase over Bijon? I would. I think it's just like these guys are all so elite that the only thing

49:57I can really see torpedoing it other than injuries would be the Falcons offense is so bad.

50:03And they're just bouncing back between quarterbacks and really struggling.

50:06I don't think that's going to happen. But I just don't think I can take a Falcons guy over a Bengals guy.

50:13Whatever. So, I guess, again, looking at the build, do you prefer Chase and Derrick Henry?

50:18Or, well, you will never take Derrick Henry. Do you have Chase and Ken Walker, let's say?

50:24Or Bijon and... See, Jamie, here's where it gets tough because...

50:27Bijon and AJ Brown. Yeah. Based on average draft position, AJ Brown's going 19th.

50:32So, let's say we can't get him. But Nico Collins, George Pickens, and Rasheed Rice are all available at the 2-3 turn.

50:39And I like them all better than Derrick Henry, I think.

50:42But I still don't think that would influence my pick.

50:46I'm just going to take the guy that I like better in the first round.

50:51And if I have to take two wide receivers with my first two picks, then so be it.

50:56No, that's the way you should draft it, obviously.

50:59You know, you shouldn't let the rest of the draft dictate what you're going to do in the first pick.

51:06But it's clearly something you can take into account of, here's the range of guys that are coming next.

51:12And how do you want to pair them together?

51:15I do think you're going to get really uncomfortable in round three if you do that.

51:20Because there's a pretty big gap after that Ken Walker group.

51:24Yeah. And you're probably then staring down the barrel of, do I want to start three wide receivers?

51:29Or do I want to start two wide receivers and Bowers or McBride if one of them's still there?

51:36And now you're looking at late round four before you get a running back.

51:40And if I do that, what are we looking at at 48th overall at running back?

51:45We're looking at David Montgomery, DeAndre Swift, Travion, Judkins, Bejal Tootin, Bucky Irving.

51:50I mean, if you could get Judkins there, I'd feel pretty.

51:53And I took Swift in round four of the 14-team league.

51:57Yeah. It's not a typical me team. Right. All right.

52:00Let's go to tier six now at wide receiver.

52:03And we are looking at Malik Neighbors. Make a tier!

52:06Yeah. Oh, man. Malik Neighbors for Jamie. DJ Moore.

52:09Basically for Jamie, it's Malik Neighbors and the rest of tier five for Heath here in tier six.

52:15DJ Moore, Jalen Waddell, Mike Evans, Devontae Adams. Not Evans, though.

52:18Evans is in tier six. Heath's lower on Evans.

52:21But the guys we just talked about, basically. Neighbors, Moore, Waddell, Adams, and then Evans, who's a new name.

52:27And Heath has... Welcome to your wide receiver threes.

52:3015 receivers here? I don't even know. We got Metcalf.

52:34We've got both Jaguars. Well, two of the Jaguars guys, Thomas and Parker Washington.

52:38We got Odunze. We got Marvin Harrison Jr., Christian Watson, Jordan Tyson, Cortland Sutton, Alec Pierce to Quentin Johnston, Carnell Tate and Josh Downs.

52:46Jordan Addison, Jacoby Myers. Oh, we do have all three Jaguars.

52:50Jordan Addison, Jacoby Myers, and Mike Evans. So, obviously, when you're looking at this, I think a lot of people are going to go, Mike Evans.

52:58Megateer! Mike Evans is at the bottom of the Megateer.

53:01So, we could talk about him separately. But, Heath, what point are you making here with this Megateer?

53:07We used to talk about the blob of wide receivers that was like wide receiver 20 to wide receiver 37 or whatever.

53:14This is the blob. Except it starts a little bit later than it did in the past.

53:20Like, literally, I think all of these guys are within 1.2 points per game in my projections.

53:25So, don't care about the order. These are your wide receiver threes.

53:29And that would be Metcalf? You can choose floor.

53:32You can choose upside. You can, like, you can choose old.

53:36You can choose young. You can choose slot guys.

53:38You can choose 16-yard ADOTs. Whatever you want, there's something for you.

53:42Here are your wide receiver threes. This is Heath's Golden Corral.

53:46Yes. So, what do you choose? What do you typically, you know, in terms of profile, slot guys, old guys, whatever, like, what do you typically lean toward?

53:55I think it depends on whether you've started, as we were just talking, like, with a couple of wide receivers early.

54:02And then those guys like Alec Pierce, Quentin Johnston, kind of the, even Marvin Harrison Jr., Christian Watson, the quintessential boom bust

54:09wide receiver three that's going to win you six weeks a year.

54:13That's great. If you started with a couple running backs early and you need some security, then you take the guys that are a little bit safer.

54:22I'm going to read the names again. Metcalf, every Jaguar, Odunze, Marvin Harrison, Christian Watson, Jordan Tyson, Cortland Sutton, Alec Pierce, Quentin

54:29Johnston, Carnell Tate, Josh Downs, Jordan Addison, Mike Evans.

54:32Obviously, if I ask Jamie, who are you going to lean toward?

54:36I know he's going to say Mike Evans because he has Evans a tier ahead of this.

54:41Well, same tier numerically for you guys, but for all intents and purposes ahead of this.

54:46We just did round seven through nine wide receivers.

54:49So, Jamie would probably say, throw Chris Godwin on there.

54:52I want him. But who are some of the names that jump out to you that you would find yourself favoring, Jamie?

55:00In Heath's mega tier? Yeah. So, I would get a plate and I'd probably go with Watson first.

55:05Odunze first, sorry. Odunze, then Watson, then probably the Jaguars guys of Washington and Thomas in that order.

55:11Then Josh Downs. I'm sorry, then Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, those two guys.

55:15But yeah, Evans will be first. This morning was Parker Washington morning for me.

55:20He did a lot of research on Parker Washington, but not just that, but just try to find some comps.

55:26Thomas, can you throw up the graphic? I throw these numbers at him a half hour before the show and he comes up with this amazing graphic.

55:35Wow. So, these are players from 2024. And I looked at weeks 12 through 18 because that was Parker Washington's boom season.

55:42He actually missed week 14 and he barely played in two of the games there and he's still amazing.

55:48But here are some players who finished strong weeks 12 through 18 of 2024, had an ADP boost in 2025.

55:55And how did they do the next year? Brian Thomas Jr., horrible bust.

55:59Jerry Judy, even bigger bust. Lad McConkie, bust. Marvin Mims actually averaged 15.8 points per game.

56:04He didn't really have that big of an ADP boost.

56:08Nobody cared. He was 152nd. But he was a bust.

56:11Courtland Sutton, originally I put him as a bust, but I would say, I guess I'd call him a fine pick.

56:18He had a big finish. So did Bo Nix in 2024.

56:21He was 53rd overall. He was like wide receiver 22 or something and he finished basically right around there.

56:27So we'll call him a fine pick. And then there was JSN.

56:31And that's the prize here. Jack and Smith and Njigba averaged 15 points per game from weeks 12 through 18 of 2024.

56:38And he had an MVP caliber season. Then I went back, but most of them were busts.

56:44And then I went back and I looked at the same stuff from 2023.

56:48We don't have a graphic on that. But again, most of those guys who finished strong in 2023 were busts.

56:55You had CeeDee Lamb, right? Jamie says we've been chasing that stretch for CeeDee Lamb.

57:00Well, he finished as wide receiver nine per game and he was drafted as wide receiver one.

57:05You had Christian Watson who averaged 24 points per game in weeks 12 through 18 of 2023.

57:11And he was wide receiver 83 per game. Rasheed Rice, though, was the JSN of the group, even though he only played, in my opinion, three games.

57:20He was obviously a great pick. He parlayed a terrific finish to 2023 into big production.

57:25You had Zay Flowers, who was a bust after a strong finish to his rookie year.

57:30And you had Jaden Reed, who was a bust.

57:33I would say a slight bust after a strong finish to his rookie year.

57:37And I know I threw a lot of names out there.

57:41I guess my point is I am going to be wary of guys who just did it in a small sample size.

57:48And yes, that means we all missed on Amon Ross St.

57:52Brown after his rookie year. And I probably missed on Rasheed Rice after his rookie year.

57:57But Parker Washington was in his third year when he had this big outbreak.

58:01And he was so good. And then he backed it up in the playoffs with an amazing game.

58:07Can I give you two names that might matter?

58:10Yeah. Wondell Robinson and Chris Godwin. In what regard?

58:13The slot receivers for Liam Cohn. Wondell Robinson was a slot.

58:17Oh, in college? In Kentucky. Oh, that stuff doesn't really matter to me.

58:21In college. Yeah, he also was like a deep threat in college.

58:25Yeah. But no, it matters to some people. I didn't mean to dismiss it.

58:29I mean, look, there's... My biggest issue with Parker Washington is how are they going to get all these guys to the football?

58:37Yep. Yeah. You know, so it's great to love him.

58:40It's understandable to love him. It's understandable to want to bounce back for Brian Thomas.

58:45It's understandable to want Jacoby Myers to still do what he's done.

58:49It's understandable to want to see Travis Hunter play on offense and be successful.

58:53It's understandable to want to see Brenton Strange play like he did at times last year and justify the contract.

59:00How do they do it? Well, this is why I love Trevor Lawrence because I think there's an opportunity for him to

59:07just thrive with all these guys, especially with a suspect run game.

59:11But somebody's going to disappoint here. Two guys are probably going to disappoint here.

59:15Maybe three guys are going to disappoint here, especially depending on how quickly you draft or how soon you draft them.

59:22So I think the Parker Washington excitement level is justified if he's drafted in the right range.

59:28If you're taking him ahead of... Like, I think a lot of the names that Heath has here, like, I would prefer...

59:35I do prefer... Romo Dunze, Christian Watson. I think there's a higher ceiling for those guys.

59:40But I understand where Parker Washington is. I know Dave was very excited about Parker Washington, for example.

59:46I think a lot of people in the industry are excited about Parker Washington.

59:50But it's... Again, four guys need the football. And I go back to...

59:55They reached for Travis Hunter. And to just completely dismiss him is, I think, a little bit of a mistake.

60:01They traded for Jacoby Myers. I don't think he's going to disappear.

60:05We know what Brian Thomas can do. We know what he's capable of.

60:09And whether he's the sacrificial ex or just a deep threat or whatever the case may be, he's going to get opportunities too.

60:17So it's like, how good can Parker Washington be?

60:20Because a lot of what he did last year was no Travis Hunter and a very different Brian Thomas.

60:26Yeah, an injured one. But the best... That was the bad stuff, I guess, for Parker Washington from what I said.

60:32That's not how I necessarily feel about him. Because, you know, I mentioned weeks 12 through 18.

60:38If we get rid of week 12, as Brian Thomas didn't play, we look at weeks 13 through 18.

60:44When Parker Washington was on the field, he had a 31.5% target share.

60:48So really impressive stuff. What would you guess his snap share is this year?

60:5380% of the routes. Parker Washington? Not the snaps, but the routes.

60:57You think that's too high? I think it's probably too high.

61:00Then either he's good enough to justify that, right?

61:03Like he's a good enough player where they need to keep him on the field.

61:08Or if not, then I don't think he should be taken in round six or seven.

61:13I mean, they extended Brenton Strange and drafted two tight ends also.

61:17And we're talking about playing more two tight end sets.

61:20You're right. You're probably right. That makes me nervous.

61:23Let me see Parker Washington's ADP. 66. That's mid round six.

61:27I mean, look, if you read the reports out of Jacksonville and go based on what we saw last year, I think

61:34the two guys that should make you nervous for how they impact everybody else, but even their individual performances is Jacoby Myers and Travis Hunter.

61:42Because I think what Brian Thomas does changes their offense, whether he's good or not, but he just obviously is such a threat to the defense.

61:51And Parker Washington just feels like that's the safety blanket for Trevor Lawrence and Liam Collins.

61:56But that's the thing. He's actually, his ADOT was 12.5 yards.

61:59He's not, he's an different, and he's not an exclusive slot guy either.

62:0444% slot rate. It's not like a 70% slot guy or anything.

62:07So now you have everybody healthy. He's a different cat.

62:11Yeah. I don't know who he is. We don't know yet.

62:14And sorry, we just spent so much on Parker Washington.

62:18There's a lot of guys on this list. There's no way we could talk about all of them.

62:23It might be better just to go to tier seven and talk about which guys for Jamie are in this tier, like

62:31to try to separate them a little bit. Before we do that, we talked about how the last year was full of,

62:38was a lot of guys that might have top 12 potential.

62:41Do you think anyone in this tier has top 12 potential?

62:45Yeah. Who? I mean, Brian Thomas Jr. has already done it.

62:48Yeah. Anyone else? I think Marvin Harrison still could.

62:51Roma Doonset could, we could all be dumb, and Roma Doonset could be the best pass catcher on the Bears.

62:58Okay. But most of the guys, like, maybe Alec Pierce.

63:01I don't know. Well, Heath, is your concern about Evan's health or performance?

63:05A little of both, but more, more health. I forgot about Evan.

63:09See, I think you got to throw him in that conversation.

63:13Yeah. I mean, look, obviously you got to be concerned about Evan's health.

63:17I think if we were guaranteed a certain amount of gains for him would determine how high he would be ranked if

63:24he was going to play the majority of the season.

63:27But he just got, you know, a nine touchdown seed out of Jawan Jennings in this offense.

63:33Yeah. Like, he could be this year's Devante Adams.

63:36Let's see. I think you'd probably have to say Christian Watson.

63:39Yep. Like, if everything goes right. My thing about Watson is, like, I don't know if we'll have enough catches in PPR,

63:46but in the other formats, you know. I don't have it in front of me, but I'm sure you guys have different stats on this.

63:54Where did Watson finish points per game last year?

63:57He was 19th. 13th and non, 17th and half, 19th and full.

64:01So, this is a Watson comment and a Malik Nabors comment.

64:05Watson did that coming off a torn ACL and in an offense that didn't throw the ball very much.

64:11And Nabors coming off a torn ACL in an offense that may not throw very much.

64:16And Malik Nabors is a much better prospect than Christian Watson.

64:20So, hopefully we get that type of season from Nabors.

64:23Again, hard to count on that because of where he's at with his health.

64:28Watson was in a seemingly better spot. But no Dante Avionwicks.

64:31More importantly, no Romeo Dobbs. This could be the runway is clear for Christian Watson and Jane Reed and Matthew Golden.

64:38But Watson is the most likely alpha. Like, he could have a big year.

64:42All right. Tier 7 at long last. By the way, listen to the wide receiver 7 through 9 podcast from last week should be helpful.

64:51For Jamie, it's Christian Watson, Romo Dunze, Jamison Williams, and Marvin Harrison Jr.

64:55So many ways I want to go about this show.

64:58But Jamison Williams, I think, feel like he's higher on him than Jamie.

65:02Let me just check on that. I think I'm probably higher on the Lions total pass attempts than anybody this year.

65:09So, Jamie's got him 29th, Jamo. And Heath has him 25th.

65:13Dave has him 34th. All right. But Heath's Tier 7 is Chris Godwin.

65:17Xavier Worthy. The NFL. What's that? Yeah, the rest of football.

65:20Chris Godwin, Xavier Worthy. I don't know why Xavier Worthy wasn't on the graphic that I gave to the notes that I gave to Thomas.

65:29He probably was a guy who had a strong finish, was pushed up in ADP, and was a bust.

65:35Michael Pittman, Khalil Shakir, Trey Tucker, Michael Wilson, Makai Lemon, Antonio Williams, Romeo Dobbs, and Ricky Pearsall.

65:40Godwin, Worthy, Pittman, Shakir, Tucker, Michael Wilson, Makai Lemon, Antonio Williams, Romeo Dobbs, Ricky Pearsall.

65:45What do you think? Worthy wasn't on the list because his strong finish was a lot of playoffs, and he played one snap in Week 18.

65:53Right, right, right. Which, of course— So, you've been on the A's or stat.

65:58If you don't count Week 18, but you do count the playoff games, then you could definitely put him on the list.

66:05Right. You, of course, would count one snap in Week 18.

66:09It makes very much sense. Jamie, what do you think about this tier?

66:13What does this tier represent? Godwin, Worthy, Pittman, Shakir, Trey Tucker, Michael Wilson, Lemon, Antonio Williams, Romeo Dobbs, Ricky Pearsall.

66:19I mean, it represents a lot, obviously. I'm curious on some of the rankings.

66:24So, Shakir ahead of Pearsall. Godwin is low. This is just tiers.

66:28The order doesn't matter. Yeah, but even behind some of the guys in the other tier.

66:33Yeah. I think for Godwin, it's like all the concerns that I have about Mike Evans and health, and is he still the same guy?

66:41And if he's number two for Baker Mayfield, who is Baker Mayfield?

66:45And I'm just down on the Bucs offense. Yeah, I was going to say, I always like when Heath comes at it

66:52and is consistent because most people in our industry are not consistent.

66:56Heath is certainly not that. He's very consistent. When he has his slants on a team, he is very across the board with it.

67:04So, no love for Baker. Doesn't really buy the Bucca breakout, I think, to most people's level.

67:09Very down on Godwin. It's interesting. I do find it curious, though, that you're such a Brock Purdy guy and out on Evans and Pearsall.

67:17Yeah. Well, he's got George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.

67:20It's true. Antonio Williams being on here might. Oh, you know what?

67:24I'll just say this. When I look at Godwin, when I look at Worthy, Lemon, and Pearsall, those are the guys that

67:31I think, if things go right, they could really outperform this tier.

67:35Or Godwin, Worthy, McKay Lemon, and Ricky Pearsall. I'm not sure I see that for anyone else.

67:41I think just – and it's tough to say Michael Pittman.

67:44But if you look at last year when Daniel Jones was healthy, first nine games of the season, he was averaging over 16 PPR points per game.

67:53He was better for a longer – yeah, he was better for a longer stretch than Parker Washington.

67:59Yeah. Yeah. And a lot of that, obviously, was Daniel Jones healthy.

68:03He broke his leg in Week 10. So the first nine games of the season, Pittman was a pretty solid fantasy option.

68:10And then now you go to this offense that may throw the ball a little bit more with Mike McCarthy, may throw

68:17the ball down the field a little bit more with Mike McCarthy.

68:21But that doesn't speak to what a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers probably wants to do.

68:26And so I struggle right now with Pittman versus DK Metcalf and who's better.

68:30Right now I'd still take Metcalf because I think there's more upside.

68:34But it wouldn't shock me if Pittman has a better fantasy season.

68:38No. You shouldn't struggle with this. And I want to clarify, too.

68:42The reason I said rankings don't matter is this is not – I didn't – I just put these in the order

68:49of where they come out in the projections. I move guys if I think they have more upside.

68:55Mekhi Lemon's higher than most of the guys in this tier because I do – I agree with you.

69:01I do think he has more upside. I think the other guy you left out, Adam, like you said if everything goes

69:08right, these guys are in the wrong tier. I think like we just spent so much time on Parker Washington after what

69:15we saw from Michael Wilson last year who also did it when somebody wasn't healthy like Parker Washington.

69:21That like if everything goes right for Michael Wilson, he doesn't belong in this tier.

69:26What does that mean to you, though, if everything goes right?

69:29Because I did not mean if other guys get hurt.

69:33If he's – well, if the tight end targets for Trey McBride go down, if Michael Wilson's just better for Marvin Harrison than Marvin Harrison Jr.

69:41because Marvin Harrison Jr. is never as good as Michael Wilson was during that stretch.

69:46Right. Did you see the photo of Michael of Marvin Harrison last week?

69:50No. Oh. Look, quickly. Is he like really big or something?

69:54He's massive. Oh, gosh. In a positive or negative way?

69:57Well, I mean, look, I would like to look like that.

70:01He looks like the Hulk. Okay. I don't know where the picture – oh, at the press conference?

70:06Oh, wow. Yeah, he is a big dude. At the press conference?

70:10No, he's standing shirtless on a field. Well, it's also him.

70:14Maybe this was last year. He was big last year.

70:17Can I ask a question, Adam? When was the last time you stood shirtless in public?

70:22Years ago. Like, well, I go swimming in a shirt.

70:25So this is going to sound funny, but Adam and I once – I think you were there, Heath.

70:32I'm pretty sure Dave was at the event we did in New England.

70:36No. I didn't do an event in New England.

70:39So I think it was you three. And we had to put on polo shirts.

70:44Yeah. So Adam and I had to go in to change, and I saw Adam shirtless.

70:49Yeah. I'm still horrified. Do you want to see a really disgusting bruise on my arm?

70:54Of course. Yeah. What do you think about this?

70:57Wow. Dan did that too? I got hit by a softball right in the shoulder.

71:02You cried, didn't you? I was thankful it would be alive.

71:05The ball could hit me in the head, and it was screaming.

71:09It was – No, no. Were you like off to the side without a glove?

71:14I was coaching third. Okay. That makes more sense.

71:17Man, I was watching the play at third. My guy slid.

71:21I didn't have any eyes on the ball. And I think it was the shortstop.

71:25He was like the cutoff man. He made a throw to third, and he must have just thrown it way too fast

71:33because the third baseman completely missed it. And it went whizzing by my face, hit me.

71:38I mean, really the best possible place could have hit me.

71:41I'm just so lucky. Is it going to affect your tennis?

71:45No. No, I played the best tennis of my life the day after.

71:49So I think I'm okay. Okay. But, yeah. Coaching bases could be a little scary sometimes.

71:54That's what I said. I was like, listen, there's too many errors in our leagues.

71:59You got to get – Yeah, but how close to the base were you?

72:04That's probably 10 feet behind the base. But the throw was pretty close.

72:08I would say the distance between me and the guy was like – the distance between second and third base, but on a little league field.

72:16Like we weren't on a major league baseball field.

72:19So he threw it as hard as he could.

72:22And softball, I mean, it's the biggest misnomer in sports.

72:25Those things are super hard. Yeah. They're huge. Oh, I got – I was playing first base once and got drilled by a lefty.

72:33Hit a one hopper off my knee. And like – I looked like the guy that got hit by the buffalo at the state park.

72:41I once had to drive one of my teammates to the hospital after he got drilled in the face by the shortstop

72:48or third baseman throwing the ball, you know, way off first baseline and just drilled the guy right in the head.

72:55Yeah, man. It's scary because we don't wear helmets.

72:58And I was like – I think the riskiest thing because we were all so bad, you know, to make such bad throws.

73:06You guys have nets for the pitcher or no?

73:09No. Yeah, that's something that's become popular lately. We don't wear helmets and then it's the throw to first.

73:15You're running a first base. You're obviously not looking.

73:18Yep. And that's the scary thing. But base coaching too, I guess.

73:22Oh, there's Marvin Metcalf Jr. Right? It looks like DK Metcalf.

73:25He's enormous. That could be a good thing. All right.

73:28Looking in a mirror. We'll talk to you tomorrow with Tight End Tears on Fantasy Football Today.

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