PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Is Ladd McConkey the Next Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Ryan Heath's Favorite 2026 Breakouts! (06/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 11, 2026
Published
Thu, June 11, 2026
21
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh DownsZay FlowersKyle PittsMike EvansTerry McLaurinCaleb WilliamsChris GodwinChris OlaveColston LovelandJaylen WaddleLuther BurdenRome OdunzeZach Charbonnet
Player analysis
Player insights
Caleb Williams
PositiveProjection0:44
Caleb Williams has shown significant improvement in his sack avoidance, which could lead to increased passing volume and efficiency for the Bears' offense.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveUsage0:36
Chris Godwin could still be a significant target earner in the twilight of his career, similar to Keenan Allen, despite concerns about his age.
Insight pageChris Olave
NegativeInjury0:58
Chris Olave is recovering from a blood clot, which raises concerns about his health heading into the season.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout0:26
Colston Loveland is projected to lead the Bears in targets and is expected to be a top tight end due to his usage in heavy personnel sets.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveProjection0:18
Jalen Waddle's potential in the Broncos offense is uncertain, as it depends on his target share and the effectiveness of quarterback Bo Nix.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveSleeper0:18
Josh Downs has breakout potential if he can secure a role outside in two-receiver sets, as he has demonstrated high efficiency when given a full-time role.
Insight pagePositiveDepth Chart0:18
Currently, Josh Downs is primarily playing in the slot, which limits his opportunities, but there is potential for him to play outside given the Colts' depth chart.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:19
When Josh Downs has played a higher route participation rate, he has been very productive, averaging 13 fantasy points per game in those scenarios.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:20
Josh Downs is currently ranked as the 104th overall wide receiver and 47th in fantasy pros ADP, indicating he is being undervalued in drafts.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveProjection0:53
Kyle Pitts averaged 19 points per game without Drake London but only 9.6 points per game with him, raising concerns about his viability as a fantasy tight end.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:54
With a new play caller and a shift to more 12 personnel, Kyle Pitts' route participation is expected to increase significantly, making him a viable fantasy option.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout0:19
There are reasons to be excited about Luther Burden's potential, especially if he can capitalize on increased target opportunities.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveRole0:49
In the 49ers' offense, Mike Evans could see a significant increase in efficiency due to the team's use of heavier personnel packages.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:49
Mike Evans is viewed as a strong middle-round wide receiver pick, with potential for a renaissance in his career due to a favorable role in the 49ers' offense.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveRole0:28
Rome Odunze's performance could vary significantly based on his target share and the accuracy of Caleb Williams' throws.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveProjection0:23
With a new offensive coordinator, Terry McLaurin could see an increase in target share, especially as the primary receiver in the Commanders' offense.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:44
Terry McLaurin has averaged more than 13.5 PPR points per game only twice in his career, raising questions about his potential as a high-end wide receiver.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
PositiveInjury0:57
Zach Charbonnet was seen at practice but is still recovering, and his role in the running back rotation is uncertain.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection0:44
Zay Flowers finished as wide receiver 12 per game last year, but his performance was inflated in a down year for wide receivers.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:45
Zay Flowers led the NFL in targets per game with two or fewer wide receivers on the field last year, indicating his significant role in the offense.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:45
With the addition of Declan Doyle as offensive coordinator, there is optimism for a bounce back in the Ravens' offense, which could benefit Zay Flowers.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing and Bubba Wallace.
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0:24No purchase necessary. BGW group order prohibited by law.
0:2721 plus terms and conditions apply. It's Charles Barkley here with Wayfair.
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0:35If I'm grilling, chilling, and watching hoops, my outdoor setup better be ready to play.
0:40That's what Wayfair wins. From patio seating and umbrellas to grills and grill accessories, Wayfair's got it all.
0:46And it shows up fast. I'm talking fast and easy delivery.
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0:57Wayfair, every style, every home. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
1:01What a play! Can you believe this! You have no idea!
1:05It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races!
1:09And he stays on his feet! He's just gonna go the distance!
1:12Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
1:16Thursday, June 11th. And we have an awesome guest for you today.
1:20The best Heath in the fantasy industry. Ryan Heath is here.
1:23Welcome, Ryan. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today. Hey, thanks for having me back.
1:28Yeah, I don't know if I can take title of the best Heath in the fantasy industry when we've got Heath Cummings right here.
1:36But I appreciate it. I'll take the compliment. Yeah.
1:39I guess we'll find out, Heath. You've got an hour to prove yourself.
1:43You know, I'm very excited about today's show because almost every time that I hear Ryan on one of our shows or
1:50I've talked to Ryan, he just comes on and gives me a bunch of ammunition for guys that I was already excited about.
1:58So we seem to often be on the same wavelength just with different evidence that we are citing.
2:04So he's gonna back me up on some of my favorite players.
2:08I can't wait. Actually, you know, I thought about because we're basically talking about an article that Ryan wrote about players that
2:15are going to benefit from personnel usage with new play callers specifically.
2:19And not in every case, but in a lot of cases.
2:22And it's a lot of it is guys. Jamie really likes.
2:26I thought it's a lad McConkey, Christian Watson in particular.
2:29Right. Jamie drafts those guys all the time. Drake London, Mike Evans.
2:33But then there's Sam Laporta. I know Heath, you're very high on him.
2:37There's some Kyle Pitts love in here. So by the way, we're gonna get some safe flowers love too, right?
2:44Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. But Ryan kind of did this on Beyond the Box score with Jacob and Dan.
2:50So if you heard that episode, some of this might be repetitive.
2:54But hopefully Heath and I will bring different perspectives and ask different questions of Ryan.
2:59Here's my first question. So you obviously study the personnel a lot and we're seeing more heavy personnel.
3:05We're gonna do our best to stay on subject today, right?
3:09Even though I can be a little scatterbrained. But when it comes to heavier personnel and two tight ends and three tight
3:16ends set, do you think there is any personnel that would help a team rally from a 29 point deficit in the
3:23second half to win game four of the NBA finals?
3:26I don't know, man. I am not a basketball guy.
3:30Yeah. Sorry. I just completely am whiffing on this reference.
3:33I know the NBA finals are happening. I know people are mad about the Knicks.
3:38That's about all I can contribute to that topic.
3:41Biggest comeback in NBA finals history last night. And the answer is two-point guard lineup.
3:46Anyway, you do such an awesome work. And it's funny, Heath.
3:49It's like there's so many angles to look at.
3:52You sit down and say, all right, I want to analyze a player.
3:56I really never look at this kind of stuff, the personnel usage, Heath.
4:01And we have to start because things are changing in the NFL, huh?
4:05Yeah, I think the interesting thing is a lot of times it seems like with these things, just about the time we
4:12start to get them figured out, there's a new fad coming.
4:16But I think we're still early enough on this one to where at least this season it's going to be a prevalent part of the discussion.
4:24Okay, so two questions for you, Ryan. Number one, give me a question.
4:29This is a demand. Give me a little promotion, tell people where to find your content, how to follow you on X and all that stuff.
4:37And then what is your general thesis about being able to pick wide receivers and tight ends that are going to excel in different types of personnel?
4:46Yeah, so first you can find me on X at Ryan J underscore Heath.
4:51You can find this article that we're talking about today and all my written work over at fantasypoints.com as well.
4:57We're also on YouTube, Fantasy Points, look us up.
5:00Yeah, on all the platforms. But yeah, my general thesis is when we look at wide receivers over the past several years,
5:07I take like a five-year time frame. What we see is that per route, whether it's yards per outrun, fantasy points per
5:15outrun, any way you want to measure efficiency basically, everything basically improves for a wide receiver the fewer other wide receivers there are on the field.
5:23So going from three receivers on the field, like an 11 personnel three receiver set to two wide receivers on the field,
5:30we get about a 30-ish percent increase in all of these per route statistics, right?
5:35And we also see this at tight end. And the reason why is because just think about target competition, right?
5:42If you're on the field competing for targets against a blocking tight end or against a fullback, it's a lot more likely
5:49that you as the receiver that's actually like a good receiver, not just a blocker, is going to get targeted, that you're
5:56going to get the football, you're going to put up like better efficiency stats, right?
6:01Of course, the double-edged sword of this is when you go from a three receiver set to a two receiver set, there's fewer receivers on the field.
6:10So kind of the whole thesis of this article is let's find the receivers that are on these teams that are going
6:17to be on the field even in these heavier personnel sets when there's fewer overall wide receivers on the field because those
6:24are kind of the big winners just in terms of overall fantasy production if you can stay on the field in those one and two wide receiver sets.
6:34And yeah, especially as the NFL seems ready to shift even more to this, it was what we saw like with the
6:41Rams and the Seahawks and some teams last year.
6:44Lots of teams drafting tight ends very high in the NFL draft.
6:48It does seem like this is out there in the league as a personnel trend.
6:53A lot of teams are going to try this year.
6:56When you say the personnel trend, are you talking specifically three tight end sets like the Rams did?
7:02The Rams outpaced everyone in that. I mean, over 30% of their snaps are three tight end sets.
7:08Next most was Pittsburgh last year, which won't be the same this year because they don't have Arthur Smith anymore at about 12% or something like that.
7:17So are you talking about just two tight end sets or three?
7:21Yeah, so the three tight end sets or 13 personnel kind of get a lot of the hype.
7:26But in reality, I think that applies to only a handful of teams.
7:31I think the Rams will do it again. I think the Bears have the personnel to do that now with Loveland, with Cole Komet, with Sam Rausch.
7:40And I think maybe we could see the Lions mess with it.
7:43But those are really the only three teams that I think 13 personnel specifically will be a big factor for at any point this year.
7:52I'm mostly talking about 12 personnel, so two wide receivers on the field or 21 personnel where you bring a fullback on
7:59and only have two wide receivers on the field.
8:02So, yeah, mostly two tight end sets, fullback sets is what I think we're going to see more of across most teams in the league.
8:10But yeah, aside from those few exceptions I just mentioned.
8:13Okay. All right. So, Heath, any questions, any intro questions, or shall we get into some players?
8:19Let's get into it. Okay. We do have a lot of news and notes, by the way.
8:24An update on Zach Charbonnet, an update on Chris Olave, Malik Neighbors, Alec Pierce.
8:29Not a great update on Alec Pierce. He said he could be back late in training camp.
8:35He had ankle surgery in April. So that's one.
8:38We'll talk about that a little bit. But the headliner of the story was Lad McConkie, who's going to benefit from the
8:45personnel usage of Mike McDaniel, which is very different than what he'd been playing in previously.
8:50Question for you. You're, you know, you're looking, the story was about the next JSN and McConkie is your best fit.
8:57Why? And then the follow-up is, would it not be Quinton Johnston benefiting?
9:01Why would it be McConkie? Go ahead. Yeah, both totally fair questions.
9:05So yeah, starting with like why I see the parallel to Jackson Smith and Jigba.
9:10And I have to shout out my man, Jacob Gibbs from Beyond the Box Score.
9:15We figured out that he gave this take before I ever did, months before I wrote this article.
9:21And it just like managed to make its way up through my brain and into this article.
9:26So credit to him on the original comparison. But this was a big kind of under-discussed part of the Jackson Smith and Jigba breakout.
9:34Last year is that he went from over his career, almost never playing in two receiver sets to getting over half of
9:42his fantasy points in those two receiver sets. And that was foreseeable in advance because Clint Kubiak, who was the Seahawks new
9:49offensive coordinator that year, was already a big like heavy personnel two receiver sets type of guy, right?
9:55Just historically. So that was like something I kind of missed or I didn't like account for it enough when I was
10:02analyzing Jackson Smith and Jigba last summer. So I wanted to kind of look around the league and say, what's like the
10:09biggest, clearest spot where we have a new OC coming in that is going to shift an offense from a lot of
10:16three wide sets into a lot more heavy personnel sets.
10:20And the clearest answer for me was the Chargers with Mike McDaniel coming over from the Dolphins.
10:25Lad McConkie ran just 10 percent of his routes last year with three or fewer or sorry, with fewer than three wide receivers on the field.
10:34For Jalen Waddell, for comparison, that was 46 percent.
10:37If you just look at overall drop back rate, the Dolphins were top five in utilizing these heavy sets.
10:43The Chargers were bottom five. They had a lot more spread out stuff, I think mostly because they wanted to get Keenan Allen on the field.
10:51So with that in mind, whoever now is going to stay on the field for the Chargers in these heavier sets is going to benefit efficiency wise.
11:00So that's kind of what we're trying to find.
11:03And I think it's most likely to be a Lad McConkie over a Quentin Johnston for a few reasons.
11:09When we zoom out and look at McConkie's first two seasons of his career, there's a lot of parallels that you can draw to Jackson Smith and Jigba.
11:19His overall production per route, just total fantasy production has been better through two seasons.
11:24It doesn't feel that way because he kind of went in the opposite direction from an amazing rookie year to a more disappointing sophomore season.
11:32But I do think that the personnel stuff with Keenan Allen had a lot to do with that, just with more receivers to compete with.
11:40And the reason that I think it's specifically McConkie and not Johnston is that if you're going to go into these heavier
11:47personnel sets, kind of the whole advantage in terms of what a defense has to do is they now have to defend
11:54the run or at least respect the run, right?
11:57Because you're in heavier personnel. You have more blocking bodies.
12:01It should be easier to run out of these sets.
12:04And also, if you can like pass the ball and have like an equal threat on both the run and the pass,
12:11it puts the defense in a pickle. They can't just throw an extra defensive back onto the field.
12:17There was a lot of talk about this in terms of personnel matching last year with what the Rams and Seahawks were able to do.
12:25But if you can get into heavy personnel and have a good pass threat, which means having your best receiver on the
12:32field in those sets, that can create like a really big advantage.
12:36And we have seen Mike McDaniel do this before.
12:39So I just am in on McConkie. He's the one whose talent I most believe in.
12:45I think he is the best route runner. We see that in terms of all of our separation data over at fantasy points that we chart.
12:53So I just have a lot of confidence in McConkie as a player.
12:57And I think it's just the perfect situation for like whichever one guy is on the field the most to kind of massively benefit efficiency wise.
13:06Yeah, I think the big thing for me is going to be what's the or what's their intention in terms of how
13:13much Justin Herbert's going downfield in terms of the McConkie versus Quentin Johnston thing, because Johnston is obviously more of a he
13:20does some stuff by the line of scrimmage, but he's going to do more of the downfield stuff.
13:26He's the guy with the big monster plays. I think it probably benefits both of them.
13:31And I prefer Ladd to Quentin Johnston. But if I'm looking at ADP and who people are getting excited about, I find
13:39myself drafting more Johnston because nobody wants to get excited about that.
13:43Yeah, because well, because they're both in theory, they'll both be on the field in these two receiver sets, right?
13:49I mean, yes. But but let me ask you this, because there's something else that McConkie and JSN have had in common through their first two seasons.
13:58And that was a very high slot rate for McConkie.
14:01It's been 66 percent and 61 percent for JSN.
14:04It was 68 percent and 77 percent. Last year, JSN's slot rate was 18 percent, 17.5 percent, which is super low.
14:11So what do you think? Is that going to happen to McConkie?
14:15Is he going to just start playing out wide more a lot more?
14:19I think he will, and I think he can.
14:22I mean, he played out wide a decent amount just because of Keenan Allen being on the team last year and his
14:30yards per out run from out wide. I don't have it in front of me through two years.
14:35I wish I did, but I know his rookie season.
14:39He had like a top 10 yards per out run from out wide.
14:43Like, I do think he can play out wide.
14:46But yeah, that is like another parallel here of can this guy kind of make the jump from inside to outside?
14:53And I think McConkie is capable of it. He's also been used downfield more than JSN was through his first two years.
15:00So I think this is like a really fair comparison to make.
15:04And of course, it's a year three breakout that we're looking for.
15:08One of my first big articles when I broke into the fantasy industry was about age curves and kind of the thing
15:15people forget just because we got so many like amazing wide receiver classes where these guys were breaking out in year one and year two.
15:23It used to take until year three for the majority of receivers to break out in vogue.
15:29And I think that's a little bit of what some people missed with JSN last year.
15:34And I think it could also apply to McConkie this year.
15:38We're going to take a break. I'll give you a couple stats just based on what I'm seeing on true media.
15:45Lad McConkie when lined up anywhere other than the slot, which is almost always out wide, but not always.
15:51As a rookie, he had a two, where is it, yards per out run, 2.79 yards per out run, which is amazing.
15:58Last year was 1.67. But I think that's because the targets just weren't there.
16:03I mean, he went from a 28.1% target per out run rate out wide to 16.3% in his second season.
16:09He just didn't get a lot of targets last year, especially down the stretch.
16:14I got to take a break. I'm going to ask you one more JSN comparison that's not in your article, I don't think.
16:21And then we'll move on to some other players that you wanted to talk about.
16:26We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing.
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17:46Josh Downs was a guy that I thought had some similarities to JSN in the sense of played a lot in the slot.
17:53Good times per route. Maybe could have an increase in role this year.
17:58Unfortunately, he's so much smaller. He might just stay as a slot guy.
18:02But do you see any breakout potential for Josh Downs?
18:05Heath, you like Josh Downs quite a bit, right, Heath?
18:08I do. I didn't like hearing that doesn't sound like he so far at OTAs.
18:13He's really been playing out in two wide receiver sets as much as we were hoping.
18:19But maybe that'll change. Yeah. Ryan, your take? Yeah, I think it's possible.
18:23I mean, it's what they said before OTAs, like in interviews around the combine and the NFL draft, that it sounded like
18:30the Colts believed he could play outside. But that is like a big point to me.
18:35Yeah. I actually wrote Josh Downs up as one of my favorite best ball values, basically on this idea that, yeah, he
18:42has really only played in 11 personnel inside in three receiver sets for most of his career.
18:48That's been largely because the Colts have the options of Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman on the outside for most of his career.
18:56But yeah, now when it's Nick Westbrook, Akeen or Ashton Doolin on the outside potentially playing over him like that, I feel
19:03like that's like a much bigger sacrifice that you're making in terms of receiving ability just to get a better blocker on the field than 12.
19:11So I do think it's possible he plays outside.
19:14And if that does happen, then he's a massive value in all formats.
19:19Just because whenever Downs has played a higher route participation rate in these games, he's been a really productive receiver.
19:25He's 13 fantasy points per game over his career.
19:28The wide receiver 18 by half PPR in his 11 career games above a 75% route share, which is like most full-time
19:35receivers will hit that in most games. So yeah, if he plays a full-time role, then I'm super into it.
19:42Downs in terms of career targets per route run is on a list with a bunch of studs over the first three seasons of their career.
19:50Like JSN, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave. He's like in that range of receiver just in terms of pure target earning when he's been on the field.
19:59So I'm into it for sure. Was that the third or fourth different variation of how many games Josh Downs has played
20:06above a certain snap or route share? We've done that one four or five times, but I think it's always just a little bit different.
20:14No, I think he's the most obvious guy that we don't know yet.
20:19I feel pretty confident that Ladd McConkie is going to play more outside and in two wide receiver sets.
20:25Josh Downs is going to be much better if he gets to, and it's still just kind of an if.
20:31Right. Worth a shot though. A hundred and fourth overall wide receiver 47 in fantasy pros ADP right now.
20:38Someone says, I don't read the comments. I do read the comments.
20:42I try anyway, but they do distract me sometimes.
20:44But there is one that I, they want to, that I wanted to read.
20:49Uh, once from Aaron, he says, I'm a Heath guy, early FFT dynasty adopter, but man, the hockey slander.
20:55Come on, man. I don't not know when I slandered hockey.
20:59I mean, you've just, it's been the greatest Stanley cup final ever so far.
21:03And you call that hockey, you called it soccer on ice, which was, I think you slandered two sports.
21:10I think it was insightful. Like when I said that everybody, I saw light bulbs going off above people's heads that, wow, it really kind of is.
21:19It wasn't saying anything bad about hockey or soccer.
21:22I was just talking about how closely related they are.
21:25Okay. It sounded bad. Um, it was a good call though.
21:28Uh, so here's another one that I want to read.
21:32It's from Kaz. Ibuka. And this is someone that's in Ryan's article, uh, about these potential, the next potential JSNs.
21:38The guys are going to benefit from personnel. Abuka is the next JSN year three.
21:43He's not in year three, but it's okay. Um, no Mike Evans, no Rashad White Baker bounce back.
21:49And Heath was very excited to have Ryan agree with a lot of his takes, but this one, I don't think we're
21:56going to have necessarily an agreement on because I know Ryan, you're excited about Abuka's potential.
22:02Heath is a little nervous about the Bucs offense, specifically about Baker Mayfield bouncing back.
22:06But Ryan, how do you feel about Abuka being this year's JSN?
22:10I kind of see both sides of it with Abuka.
22:14Uh, he, he was like the, the last one in that section in my article where I was kind of like, I
22:21feel way more confident in Latin McConkie and a few other guys that we're going to talk about.
22:27Cause I, I think there's a lot of uncertainty with how the Buccaneers personnel is going to shake out.
22:33You have new OC Zach Robinson coming over, uh, from the Falcons where he's kind of done it both ways, right?
22:40His first year in Atlanta, they were one of the most spread out three wide receiver heavy teams, uh, that we have seen in the past few years.
22:49And last year he pivoted harder to heavy personnel.
22:52Uh, of course, part of that is just the wide receivers he had to work with behind Drake.
22:58London were very uninspiring last year. Uh, but I think that speaks to like, there's some uncertainty.
23:04There's some versatility in what Zach Robinson might do.
23:06I do think there's a world where the Buccaneers live in 11 personnel.
23:11It's a Mecca, Buka at Z it's Chris Godwin in the slot and then whatever it's Ted Hearst on the outside at
23:18X, uh, or they're doing like an obnoxiously weird rotational thing with four guys with Jalen McMillan getting involved.
23:24Like there's just a lot of ways that this could go, uh, or it could be perfect.
23:30It could just be heavy personnel, uh, a Buka Godwin playing a part-time role as his career winds down.
23:36I think a lot of it just depends on Chris Godwin and how, like how much gas he has in the tank left.
23:44Frankly, we've seen guys bounce back the year after the year after these fibula injuries.
23:48So I don't think it's out of the question that Godwin is still a target earner in the twilight of his career.
23:56Uh, not unlike a Keenan Allen. So yeah, I'm a, I'm a little more just trepidatious on a Buka.
24:02I see the argument that he could be a total league winner.
24:06Like in terms of like first five weeks in the NFL, this guy's on a list with like Puka Nakua and Randy Moss and nobody else.
24:14So I, like, I get it. I'm a little scared to fade him.
24:19Uh, but when it's, yeah, when it's between like him and lad or him and some of these other awesome round four
24:26wide receivers, Colston Loveland, like I, a Buka is not someone that I actually have much of.
24:31Oh, okay. Uh, well you mentioned Colston Loveland. We can get into the bears.
24:36I think they're a fascinating team right now. Uh, you also talked about Chris Godwin, maybe getting a lot of targets late in his career.
24:44He'll be 30. Uh, I feel like those slot guys are the ones who can still earn a bunch of targets, even when they're not as good.
24:53I think about it. Keenan Allen, Keenan Allen. Yeah.
24:56But I think about Julian Edelman. He mentioned Keenan Allen.
24:59Julian Edelman. He was still very good, but 153 targets at age 33, uh, Larry Fitzgerald, when he became a slot guy,
25:07he was getting 161 targets at age 34, 150 targets the year before that.
25:11Uh, those kinds of guys, they can, they can stick around for a while.
25:16Um, I, yeah, Heath, what do you think of the bears offense?
25:20They, they did draft a tight end, um, fairly early.
25:23They got rid of DJ more. They're super exciting, but very run heavy.
25:27Um, but they, but they run a lot of plays.
25:30What do you think about who's going to benefit this year?
25:34Well, I think that hopefully Ryan's going to answer that question for us.
25:38Cause I, as I talked about on FFT express this morning, like this is one of those teams.
25:44There's, there's, there's two or three of them where I pretty much just have the top three guys all projected for the same number of targets.
25:53Um, because it's, it is quite a bit of an unknown.
25:56Um, the main thing is I want to draft one of them, um, in, in a draft.
26:02And sometimes I might draft two of them. I think it could be Colston Loveland leading this team in targets.
26:09If I think definitely will be Colston Loveland being a top three or four tight end.
26:14Um, and then there's, there's reasons to be excited about both Rome and Luther burden.
26:19I'm much more excited about burden, but I wouldn't be that surprised if Roma Dunze just all of a sudden isn't not catching half of his targets.
26:28And, uh, or Caleb Williams gets a little bit more, more accurate on those downfield throws and, and a dunze could have a monster.
26:35I think you talked about Ryan, that, that, uh, Robinson going to Tampa Bay has done things a little bit differently in, in past years.
26:44I, I felt like we didn't quite get lions Ben Johnson approach in the first year in Chicago also, which, which also adds to some of the mystery.
26:53Yeah, agreed. He's definitely kind of switched things up and especially like even during the season last year, we saw a big
27:00shift starting around like week 11, week 12. So probably partially brought on by the Roma Dunze injury.
27:06Uh, but if you just look at the bears, like, uh, sorry, they're 12 and 13 personnel snap rates.
27:12So multiple tight ends on the field, it started just going much higher, like week by week around the midpoint of the season.
27:20Like they were hitting 50, 60% most games, like from week 11 through the wild card.
27:25And of course that's when we saw Colston Loveland and to a lesser extent, Luther burden kind of have their breakouts.
27:32Right. Uh, so I, I'm the most excited for Loveland just because yeah, with the bears drafting Sam Rausch in round three,
27:39that gives them a three tight end set. They could use.
27:43We saw them in two tight end sets for a lot of last year, of course.
27:48And in those sets, it's just clearly Colston Loveland that benefits the most.
27:52I, it from three tight end sets, he was on the field for 98% of the routes.
27:58He had a 53% receiving yards market share on those plays.
28:01If you add 12 personnel into that, it's still really strong, like up at the top of the team.
28:08So I'm pretty into Loveland, like over this stretch where they started going heavier, he was averaging over nine targets per game, 16 fantasy points per game.
28:16Um, I, I just see so much upside with him.
28:20And I think that kind of whatever they do, whether it's a lot more three tight end, whether it's two tight end,
28:27uh, or even if it's, uh, 11 personnel, which they don't really have a third receiver worth putting on the field for 11 personnel.
28:35But even if they did that, I think Loveland's on the field more than enough, uh, kind of in any scenario.
28:42So he's my favorite of the group, but I agree.
28:45It's like really hard to project. We've had more debates about the bears in our projections calls over at fantasy points, uh,
28:52probably more than any other team because, because yeah, it could so easily be Luther burden.
28:57As the one receiver, uh, on the field in the heavy sets, it could be Roma duns.
29:03A both of them did it at different points last year.
29:07Uh, but yeah, I, I think if I were to rank them in terms of my interest at ADP, it would be
29:14Loveland, uh, then burden, then a duns. A, but yeah, I can also see myself drafting any one of them.
29:20It like on a given team, I do just want a piece of this offense.
29:25Mm-hmm. And Loveland current fantasy pros ADP Loveland is tight end threes going 40, 41st.
29:30The next player in ADP is burden 42 to 43 overall.
29:34And then Rome Odunze is 57th overall. So you get a little bit of a discount there on Odunze.
29:40Um, yeah, I did think it was interesting because like we have this and there's been, I think more talk about it this last week.
29:48Coming from Ben Johnson than you normally get from a head coach with a quarterback that we think could be a star.
29:56Just what they're trying to get Caleb Williams to do differently.
29:59And it's pretty simple stuff. Like it is the simple stuff that he's not doing.
30:04It's like, listen, we're drawing up a play. There is a first read.
30:08He is open. Please just throw it to him instead of what Caleb has been doing, which is let's, let's run around,
30:16run in circles a couple of times and then see if we can make a bigger play.
30:21And I, I don't, I don't know. I'm curious if Ryan does.
30:25Like I don't really have a strong lean towards if Caleb starts doing that better, who does it benefit?
30:31And if he keeps playing kind of this bigger Kyler Murray type football, who does that benefit?
30:37Yeah. Caleb is also just as fascinating to think about because he, we've seen like the, one of the biggest differences from
30:44him from year one to year two that we've ever seen from a quarterback in terms of sack avoidance.
30:50Right. He went from one of the worst pressure to sack ratios of any QB season recently as a rookie to one of the best in year two.
30:59So I do think it's sorry. Go ahead. No, I just wanted to interject that I want you to finish.
31:06But I think the thing that's even more interesting about that is he didn't do it by getting the ball out quickly
31:13to his first read and like playing simple. That would be the way I would think if you were going to like
31:20lower, cut your sack rate in half, but he just did it by getting better at avoiding tacklers.
31:26It seems like. Yeah. But I agree, which is yes, it's just unlike anything we've really seen.
31:32I didn't think that that was possible, but I am kind of that gives me like the mindset or like permission to
31:39think, OK, like Caleb Williams maybe is like way more adaptable than I've given him credit for.
31:45Then people want to give him credit for. Like I could believe that they that he can totally change his play style
31:52like at the behest of Ben Johnson in in that way.
31:56So I do think it could happen in terms of who it benefits if Caleb is running around and scrambling less.
32:02That's just every pass catcher in the offense. What we see league wide is the more dropbacks where you're actually doing a
32:10pass attempt rather than a throwaway getting sacked or scrambling.
32:13Just the more all of your pass catchers benefit.
32:16It's just more pass attempts that are now not being leaked out of the offense.
32:21This was a big thing with Justin Fields and why I was out on every jet last year is because Fields was
32:28one of the worst historically at this in terms of just like throwing dropbacks away out of the offense.
32:34So if it's like huge for for all three of them and it makes all three of the all three of the
32:41Bears pass catchers a lot more interesting. If you told me, yeah, Caleb's scramble rate and throwaway rate and all of that
32:49are going to come way down this year. He's just going to hit his first read.
32:54He's not like going to stand there and scramble around and try to get through every single read in the pocket or out of the pocket.
33:02Then yeah, that it just makes the offense more like higher volume in terms of like volume of actual pass attempts that can score fantasy points.
33:11And just one negative for the Bears. If you care about this, their fantasy playoff schedule is at Buffalo home against Green Bay home against Detroit.
33:20So that could be three bad weather games. And Caleb Williams certainly has the arm to get through it.
33:26I think that's the good news. But you don't you don't want bad weather games necessarily.
33:31They surrounding those two games are at Miami in week 14 and at Minnesota in a dome in week 18.
33:38Unfortunately, the fantasy playoffs are all outdoors in either Buffalo or Chicago.
33:42Chicago. So I find Odun say and I'm sorry, not Odun.
33:45I find Loveland and Burden to have such fascinating ADPs because it's it's like right in between.
33:51If you look at fantasy pros ADP, it's right in between that group of wide receivers that we've been talking about a lot lately.
33:59Heath that we kind of really like not everybody, but Zay Flowers, Ladd McConkie, Garrett Wilson, T Higgins, Terrell McMillan, Emeka Abuka.
34:06All these guys, most of them are pretty young.
34:09They have breakout potential. Right. And then it's and then I'm going to take running back side of the equation.
34:15But then it's Colson, Loveland, Luther Burden. And then it's McLaurin, Devante Adams, Jalen Waddell, Jamison Williams, DJ Moore.
34:22My opinion is perception is that second group of receivers, McLaurin, Adams, Waddell, Jamison Williams, DJ Moore, will be looked at much
34:29differently than Flowers, McConkie, Garrett Wilson, T Higgins, Tedrell McMillan.
34:32Mecca, Abuka. And that makes that decision really hard.
34:35Because if I'm on the clock and I have to thank you, Thomas and Sam, our producers, for displaying this.
34:42If I'm on the clock and I have to choose between Loveland and Burden with all the question marks there are, with
34:49how unproven Burden is, 50, 60 targets last year, whatever.
34:52I'm taking all of those wide receivers ahead of him that are going ahead of him.
34:57I'm taking all of them. And then I think his ADP is basically perfect.
35:02Loveland's another case because it's a tight end. But I think my determining factor would be I'm not taking Loveland, 41st overall, in a three-receiver fantasy league.
35:11Want to talk about personnel? If we go heavier personnel in our fantasy leagues and we're only starting two receivers, I like Loveland at 41.
35:19Three-receiver league, I think I got to go receiver there.
35:22No, I think that makes sense. I think we've all got, like when you're talking about Luther Burden and Ted Arroa McMillan,
35:29who are going four picks apart, that seems like a pretty clear case where Ted Arroa McMillan probably has a much, much safer 1,000-yard 6-7 touchdown floor.
35:38And I don't think Ted Arroa McMillan can sniff Luther Burden's ceiling if Luther Burden's the best wide receiver in the Ben Johnson offense.
35:46And so you're just kind of making that decision between guys like that.
35:50And Ibuka is probably more just like Burden with maybe a little bit higher floor than Burden has.
35:56But I think that might just come down to whether you're drafting based on floor or upside.
36:02The one that's interesting to me, and I don't know if Ryan had anything on him.
36:07First off, we have to make sure before we finish that he says nice things about Zay Flowers.
36:13But is Terry McLaurin? Because they've got a new offensive coordinator.
36:17I don't know that we know what to expect from, but I think we could see some more target share going the
36:24way of Terry McLaurin and maybe some more heavy personnel where he's just the only wide receiver that matters.
36:30Yep. All right. We're going to take a break and we'll talk about that.
36:35But the new offensive coordinator, I'll steal this joke from Dave, called David Blau.
36:39That's his name. That name again is David Blau.
36:42We'll be right back on Fantasy. You have no idea what that is, Ryan, do you?
36:48No idea. My only conception of David Blau is that he plays on Thanksgiving when there's no other quarterbacks that are healthy.
36:55Yeah, that's a Simpsons reference from when you were like negative 15 years old.
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37:58All right, here's what I'm putting in the notes.
38:01We're going to finish with Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers, Mike Evans, Kyle Pitts.
38:05Good, Heath? Fantastic. I think that's probably going to be, if I was guessing, that's going to be three Heath agreements and one Heath disagreement.
38:13I don't know where we're at on McLaurin. So it's definitely at least two agreements and the Evans disagreement.
38:19But let's hear McLaurin and Ryan, your thoughts on him.
38:23Yeah, I like him. I like just a lot of the wide receivers in that range of ADP that we had up on the screen.
38:31When I think about McLaurin and the commander's offense and what David Blau wants to do, the most concrete stuff we've gotten
38:38from Blau and from Dan Quinn is that they want to run the offense a lot more from under center than they have in the past.
38:47Right. And that would be very good for the offense as a whole, most likely just from the sample of work that
38:54we have from Jaden Daniels on these under center plays.
38:57I don't have it in front of me, but he has like a pretty dramatic efficiency boost when he's dropping back from under center.
39:05And of course, under center means you can run play action better.
39:09And if you're running under center play action and there's only one real target earner on the offense in Terry McLaurin.
39:16Yeah, that that can be amazing efficiency wise. McLaurin was already very efficient last year, even with Marcus Mariota, which was pretty impressive to me.
39:24He believed top 10 and yards per hour run in games with Mariota and pretty close to it just in all of his games overall.
39:32So I think McLaurin still has the juice. My only, I guess, like pushback on McLaurin is I'm just as intrigued by
39:39Jalen Waddle going a couple spots past him there.
39:42This is like one that I'm kind of still mulling over my position on because Waddle moving over to the Broncos.
39:49We have I had a tweet out yesterday where it was basically the yards per hour run leaders over the past four seasons.
39:57So since Tyree Kill came to Miami, Jalen Waddle is like eighth among all wide receivers in yards per hour run over that time frame.
40:05But he's the only one on the list next to Puka Nakua and Nico Collins and Amon Ross St.
40:11Brown and like every alpha wide receiver that didn't have like a 30 percent plus first read target share over that span.
40:18So what if Waddle, they trade a first round pick for him?
40:22We have seen Sean Payton. I would read between the lines and say he was maybe less impressed or satisfied with Cortland
40:30Sutton last year just based on the rotation that he was creating in terms of getting Pat Bryan and Troy Franklin on
40:37the field more often instead of Sutton being like the clear one in terms of playing time.
40:42What if Waddle just is the clear one in this Broncos offense?
40:46He's been one of the most efficient players in the NFL per route for his entire career.
40:52He just gets to play a full time route share now because he's no longer in this Mike McDaniel offense where they're like running so much like that.
41:01Him and Tyreek were always closer to like 75 percent of the routes rather than 90 plus percent.
41:07Like if Waddle hits that 85 90 percent route share, I'm like pretty excited that Bo Nix led the league in dropbacks last year.
41:15This could be like a high octane dropback passing volume offense.
41:18So, yeah, it's really tough for me between McLaurin and Waddle.
41:22I think both are really, really strong picks here.
41:25And first of all, if you'll read Ryan's article, I don't think we'll get to the Rams, but he's not not feeling
41:32Devante Adams because he thinks Puka Nakua is going to be on the field more than he was.
41:38And those one receiver sets, those three tight end sets.
41:41I'd love to maybe get you on another time to talk about that.
41:46But Heath, what do you think about McLaurin versus Waddle?
41:49I think higher on McLaurin relative to consensus than I am Waddle.
41:53And I'm not I think the things that Ryan said about Jalen Waddle are accurate.
41:58I have a very complicated relationship with Sean Payton.
42:01And I think a lot of times the reason we get all these rotations is because he really likes to show everybody
42:08how smart he is and how many different players he can use on offense.
42:13And I'm not entirely sure that I believe that Bo Nix is going to elevate Jalen Waddle more than Tua did.
42:19So I think maybe what Waddle's season is going to come down to is just how good he is after the catch,
42:27because I'm not sure that Nix can provide much for him down the field.
42:31And I just think like McLaurin had this stretch of like five years where it was 75 to 80 catches, 1100 yards.
42:38And only one of those years he scored enough touchdowns to really be great.
42:43But the vibes seem to be like we realize we have one wide receiver on this team.
42:49We're just going to throw it to him over and over and over again.
42:53And I expect a bounce back for Jaden Daniels.
42:56So I'm definitely more excited about McLaurin than I am Waddle.
43:00But I think if Waddle's ADP is right, he's got a lot of upside.
43:04Oh, man. I mean, McLaurin's 31 this year. He'll be 31 in September.
43:09He's maybe older than people realize. He's been in the league seven years.
43:13Here's where he's finished in full PPR per game.
43:1629th, 20th, 33rd, 25th, 39th, 16th, and 36th. He's currently wide receiver 22 in ADP.
43:21So twice in his career has he finished better than 22nd in ADP.
43:25It was his only healthy season with Jaden Daniels.
43:28And he finishes wide receiver 16 in ADP. But he had 1,096 yards in 17 games.
43:33That's not great. 117 targets in 17 games. As Heath mentioned, it was all the touchdowns.
43:38It was 13. So he's obviously going to have to have more targets than 117.
43:43I don't see why he couldn't. But I don't know.
43:47His career is a little underwhelming. Based on his career, he should be drafted more like, I mean, 22nd's not crazy.
43:54But maybe closer to 26, 27, something like that.
43:57All right. How about, that's my way of saying up.
44:00Well, I think the other thing is, just on that, and I don't know.
44:04Maybe it won't be the case. But is wide receiver as a position going to bounce back enough?
44:10Or are all of Terry McLaurin's high-end wide receiver three seasons from the past actually wide receiver two seasons now?
44:17Yeah, maybe. He's only averaged more than 13.5 PPR points per game twice in his career.
44:22But is wide receiver going to bounce back? Because if it does, Zay Flowers is going to have to be better than he was last year.
44:31Last year, he was wide receiver 12 per game.
44:34Most years, with his fantasy points per game, he would have been closer to wide receiver 20 per game.
44:40So let's talk about Zay Flowers here. Heath loves Zay Flowers.
44:43Very high-end. To the moon. Yep. Heath is hoping for like 134 targets, if I remember correctly, from this morning.
44:50This is the next JSM. There we go. All right.
44:53So he's wide receiver 15 and ADP. Ryan, are you optimistic about Zay Flowers?
44:58I'd say generally so. I'm clicking Ladd McConkie over him right now.
45:02But Zay Flowers positive, right? I would say like on the topic of heavy personnel, Flowers benefited from that more than any
45:09other wide receiver in the league last year. He led the NFL in targets per game with two or fewer wide receivers on the field.
45:17And yeah, I mean, he only managed 14.5 fantasy points per game.
45:21Despite that, the most like fraudulent wide receiver one fantasy finish ever.
45:25Barely the wide receiver 12 in the worst year for wide receivers ever.
45:29But that said, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Ravens offense with Declan Doyle coming over.
45:35We have seen Lamar Jackson be one of the most efficient passers in the league on play action.
45:41And we saw just where the Ravens ranked in terms of play action drop back rate last year was very low.
45:48They were down at 20th after they'd been top 10 basically for Jackson's entire career.
45:53Declan Doyle coming over his last two stops had used a lot of play action.
45:58He wasn't the play caller there, but I'd be optimistic that they're kind of bringing even more of these like modern efficiency cheat codes into the offense.
46:07So I do think like a big bounce back from the Ravens offense in general is in the cards.
46:13I wonder if they play a little more like three wide receiver sets.
46:17They drafted two wide receivers. Elijah Surratt was one of my favorite sleepers from the NFL draft.
46:23And he's apparently making plays at camp right now.
46:26So maybe that becomes a thing. But yeah, I mean, regardless, Flowers is the alpha in this offense.
46:32Like I'm fairly optimistic on him and the offense as a whole.
46:36How much do you look at things like end zone targets?
46:39And do you think those are red zone, green zone, end zone targets?
46:43Do you think those are predictable? That has been a problem for him.
46:48Sorry, I'm always searching for stats here. But he just doesn't get targeted where it counts.
46:53And he's not the biggest guy. So it might make sense to continue that way.
46:58I said four, nine and five end zone targets in three seasons.
47:02That's just nine is fine. Four and five is really not.
47:05But does that matter to you? Do you look at those stats?
47:09It does matter somewhat. What we do at fantasy points is we just have our expected fantasy points metric that kind of
47:17wraps all of that into it, where it's taking into account like where the targets are coming on the field where, yeah,
47:24obviously the end zone and the red zone targets are more valuable, lead to more fantasy points on average.
47:30And yeah, I mean, Flowers has that. Basically, he's been, I believe, roughly in line with his XFP there in terms of what he's actually scored.
47:39So, yeah, that that is factoring into that. I think why he hasn't kind of breach like the wide receiver one territory
47:46for real is because, yeah, he's not see even if he's seeing a lot of targets, they're not the highest value ones possible.
47:53I think that's a really good point. I think the biggest thing will be, and we talked about this on Express also,
48:01but I think it was 420 pass attempts for the Ravens last year, which even for a Lamar Jackson offense is just kind of insanely low.
48:09It was his median in his career is about a 17 game pace of 480.
48:14And so does the target share, if it regresses to that, does the target share stick in that 29% range?
48:21If it does, then there's an opportunity for him to be better without scoring more touchdowns.
48:26I also think like every year, a wide receiver that we say can't score touchdowns as an eight or nine touchdown season.
48:33It was Chris Olave last year. It was Terry McLaurin the year before that.
48:38I think it was DJ Moore the year before that.
48:41You just kind of need it to be him for him to have a monster breakout.
48:46Sure. Okay. So that's two of the four, uh, McLaurin and flowers.
48:50How about Mike Evans? Heath has Mike Evans, 204th in his rankings or 95th.
48:55I always forget somewhere 95th. And, uh, Ryan, you're more optimistic about the role Evans will play in a team.
49:01The 49ers run personnel packages that are so different than what the bucks were running.
49:06Um, so how is Evans going to benefit? Yeah.
49:09Mike Evans is one of my favorite, like middle round wide receiver clicks.
49:13If, if there's any old guy wide receiver that I'm betting on this year, it is him.
49:19So yeah, when we look at his career, uh, mostly the bucks have run heavy three wide receiver sets, right?
49:26But if we just look over the past handful of seasons, whenever Evans has been in these heavier, uh, two or fewer
49:33receiver sets, he's been up at a 34% target per outrun.
49:36And two point nine, seven yards per outrun. Both of those rank top three.
49:41And when he moves over here to the 49ers with Kyle Shanahan, who was like, obviously very early to this, uh, in
49:48terms of the league, but Shanahan loves running two or fewer, two or fewer wide receivers on the field.
49:54Right. Uh, he plays a fullback, uh, more than anybody in the league other than Mike McDaniel, basically.
50:00Uh, he doesn't do the two tight end thing as much, but what he will do is he'll have kind of a
50:08hybrid F role as a wide receiver. It was Juwan Jennings for a long time before he was fantasy relevant.
50:14Uh, maybe it's rookie to John Stribling. Now, if we believe what they were saying coming out of the draft that Stribling
50:21can fill kind of the blocking receiving hybrid role.
50:24So I kind of whatever the configuration ends up being, uh, and especially if George Kittle isn't on the field in week
50:31one, I know that's like a new cycle that's going back and forth.
50:36But if there's some combination of a fullback, a tight end who isn't George Kittle and like a hybrid blocking wide receiver
50:43on the field, that, that leaves basically Mike Evans.
50:46And maybe Ricky Pierce all is like the only actual receivers on the field for a lot of the 49ers dropbacks.
50:53And that just juices the efficiency for him. Evans, I think is the best wide receiver that's played for Kyle Shanahan since prime Julio Jones.
51:01Uh, he has been throughout his career. He's always just overperformed in the touchdown column, right?
51:06Not so much in like the per route yards efficiency column, but I think with the different personnel, the more favorable heavy
51:13personnel here that we could see like a kind of later career renaissance from Mike Evans.
51:19He's still been top five in all of our average separation metrics over the past couple of seasons, even though he's been playing through these hamstring injuries.
51:28Uh, so I'm willing to take the upside shot.
51:31I think Mike Evans has top six wide receiver upside, uh, similar to like what we got out of Devante Adams over,
51:38uh, the first half, 10 weeks of last year before the injuries kind of caught up to him.
51:44So that's where I see the upside with Evans.
51:47The downside is obviously that like the guy has a huge history of lower body soft tissue injuries and he is playing next to the electrical substation.
51:55Like I totally get that. If you're scared off by that, totally get it.
52:00Can't blame you. Uh, but I, I do really see like the wide tail on the upside end as well.
52:07Okay. Heath, give me a 30 second rebuttal. I don't know that I need a 30 second rebuttal.
52:12I'm just terrified that he's washed. That he's washed.
52:15Okay. Yeah, I do. I do love the fact that your separation score is still like Mike Evans.
52:21Um, that's, that helps. The 2025 one surprises me.
52:24Like I, it doesn't surprise me that he was still awesome at that in 2024.
52:29Um, the fact that he still was in, and it was a small sample size.
52:34I, but if it's, that's a, that's a positive, I'm, I might have to move him up into the, into the top one 50.
52:42He's in the top one. He's in the top 100.
52:45All right. Let's talk about Kyle pits. And, you know, I'll say that as someone who's, who's a doubter of Kyle pits
52:53is going to be going head to head against two Heath's who are pro Kyle pits.
52:58As I recall, his ADP was somewhere in the nineties.
53:01And I think even that, that is worth it.
53:04You know, in case I'm wrong, that is good ADP for Kyle pits.
53:08You know, if he flops and you take a tight end in the nineties and he flops, it's really not that big of a deal.
53:16So, um, everything you're about to say, I just, I would just preface it by saying he averaged 19 points per game
53:24without Drake London and 9.6 points per game with Drake London last year.
53:28And that to me matters more than anything else.
53:31It just has not been that good of a tight end, uh, in the Drake.
53:36He just hasn't been, he hasn't been a, a startable start worthy fantasy tight end in the Drake London era when London's played.
53:43Uh, but what do you like about Kyle pits?
53:46Yeah. So from a person, Kyle pits is a, the type of tight end that I kind of want to hate on, right?
53:54It's very easy to look at these guys that haven't like played a full-time route share at every point in their career
54:01because they aren't like, aren't great blockers. Uh, maybe like, maybe you can argue that they won't even hit like a 70, 75% route share.
54:09And that's what Kyle pits was doing for a lot of his career.
54:14Uh, but I mentioned earlier, uh, that Zach Robinson had shifted the Falcons a lot in terms of personnel from 2024 to 2025.
54:21Uh, going from a lot of three receivers, one tight end sets to a lot of 12 personnel.
54:27And what that did to Kyle pits is route participation was it went from 67% to 86%, uh, which is just like,
54:34he goes from not fantasy viable to fantasy viable just based on that role.
54:39And what we get from the new play caller coming in, uh, with Kevin Stefanski, but it's going to be Tommy Reese
54:46calling the plays, uh, as he was for a good part, uh, in Cleveland last year, Tommy Reese is like the tight end guy.
54:54Uh, he, when he was at Notre Dame, he got huge seasons out of, uh, Michael Mayer and one other tight end
55:01who hasn't done anything receiving wise in the NFL, whose name escapes me right now.
55:06He had like a tight end centric offense with two of them.
55:10Uh, of course he engineers the Harold Fannin rookie year breakout last year.
55:14Uh, I was on David and Joku for, because of Tommy Reese, which is like huge egg on my face.
55:21Obviously, uh, just was not the tight end I expected.
55:24So yeah, I think pits is going to play a lot is like the bottom line.
55:29And that's like the biggest concern with him always is just what will the overall role in route share look like?
55:36Uh, I think it'll be good this year with Tommy, with Tommy Reese.
55:40Um, yeah. So I think he's totally viable where he's going at, at his ADP.
55:45I think he's a totally fine kind of upside shot to take.
55:49Of course. Yeah. The splits with Drake London are really rough.
55:53Uh, if it's especially in the intermediate areas, he basically wasn't used between five and 15 yards downfield.
55:59When London was active last year, his first read target rate was like 11% in the games.
56:04London missed. It went up to like 30% just in those intermediate areas.
56:09So I do think you can argue that they're a little redundant in how they've been used in the past.
56:15Uh, but I, I do have some trust in Reese to kind of figure out roles that work for both London and
56:22pits just because of the history of him elevating tight end production.
56:26Yeah. Yeah. For, for me that this, like looking at ADP right here and I can't believe that Sam Laporta is currently
56:34showing up as one spot below pits. But when the, with those two guys there at pick 96 and pick 97, and
56:41you're just telling me you can have one of Kyle pits or Sam Laporta in round eight of every draft.
56:47That's what makes it so much hard for me to harder for me to draft a tight end early.
56:54Like if I, if I know that pits or Laporta are there in round eight, I just want to draft wide receivers in rounds three and four.
57:02And I, I mean, I, I would expect extend it to me to Kelsey at one 20 Kittle at one 23 likely at one 30.
57:11I like those ADPs too. Um, you got a lot of options there.
57:15I don't know. I don't know what the deal is.
57:18I feel like an idiot for thinking tight end is deep every time in the history of tight ends.
57:24We've ever said tight ends deep. It's never deep.
57:27It always sucks, but I don't know. It sure looks deep.
57:31It does. Right. It's weird. Um, okay. That, uh, unfortunately I am out of time.
57:36We're going to run through the news and notes real quick.
57:40I think probably on Monday when we're back, we'll have to spend a little more time on it.
57:45But Zach Charbonnet was at practice, I think two days ago, uh, maybe yesterday and beaten expectations a little bit, but not doing that much.
57:54I think he was like doing high knees. Yeah.
57:57Yeah. On the sideline for 15 minutes. Okay. But you know, I think, I think people were surprised to see Charbonnet.
58:03I think the thing that surprised me more was that they were saying, and then this may not matter.
58:10It's OTAs, but it sounded like the rotation at running back was Holani first, um, price second and Emmanuel Wilson third.
58:17And when I've seen people speculating on Zach Charbonnet not getting healthy, it's been people drafting Emmanuel Wilson in the double digit rounds because he's going.
58:25And I'm not so sure that Emmanuel Wilson has a role.
58:29Even if Zach Charbonnet still hurt. Uh, Patrick Mahomes got a two year contract extension.
58:34He's very wealthy. Ted Rolla McMillan has foot soreness hopes to be ready for training camp.
58:39Chris Olave is still recovering from a blood clot that he had in week 18.
58:44I did not like hearing that. Yeah. Me either.
58:47Um, Malik neighbors is, this was, was the most optimistic we've heard, uh, the giants on neighbors in a while.
58:53He's making good progress. Apparently they're still hopeful. He's going to be ready for week one.
58:59Uh, we talked about McLaurin, but according to the athletic, he'll have a more varied route tree, which that's good.
59:05You know, that's what we want to see. Um, Alec Pierce, I already mentioned he isn't, he had ankle surgery.
59:12He could be back late in training camp. Tucker craft expects to play in week one and to be full go.
59:19Lamar Jackson is loving the new offense so far, um, for offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle.
59:23He thinks it's going to be explosive and creative.
59:26The dolphins gave center Aaron Brewer, a three-year extension.
59:29He's one of the highest paid centers in football now.
59:33Denzel Boston, a rookie wide receiver for the Browns.
59:36Second round pick. There's a conception around one Boston around two, not to say conception hasn't done well, but Boston's getting a lot of buzz right now.
59:44And, uh, Seattle reporter, John Boyle expects a bigger role for Rashid Shahid.
59:49Ryan, thank you so much for coming on. Last question.
59:52How on a scale of one, a zero to 10, zero is not similar at all.
59:5710 was the exact same show. Uh, where would you rank this episode compared to the one, the beyond the box score episode you did?
60:05Just in terms of the content covered. Oh yeah.
60:08Not very similar at all. Probably like a one or two.
60:12So yeah, I think, I think we nailed it.
60:15Well, we only went 10% as long, so we couldn't get to near as much.
60:20Yes. Did you have to like cancel any appointments for beyond the box score?
60:25No, I just, whenever I'm going on beyond the box score, I just assume it will be two to three hours.
60:31And if it's less than that, okay, it's, it's a surprise.
60:35And I have more time to do other things with my day, but that that's how long the block is on the calendar.
60:43Yeah. We're getting you out early. Go do all the fun stuff and watch some, some NBA and NHL highlights while you're at.
60:50And World Cup today. All right. USA tomorrow night.
60:53Let's go. And we'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football Today.
60:57See ya. Are you really buying a car online on AutoTrader right now?
61:02Really? I can get super specific with dealer listings and see cars based on my budget.
61:07You can really have it delivered. Or pick it up.
61:10Mommy, look! I think your kid is walking up the slide.
61:14Really? AutoTrader. Buy your car online. Really?
