Fantasy Football Today artwork

BUSTS for 2026! Players to AVOID in Your Draft! (08/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 13, 2026
Published
Thu, August 13, 2026
27
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
Darren WallerTrey McBrideAlec PierceBreece HallBucky IrvingChristian McCaffreyCourtland SuttonDallas GoedertDe'Von AchaneDeVonta SmithJames CookJameson WilliamsJonathan TaylorJosh Allen
Player analysis

Player insights

27

Alec Pierce

NegativeBust52:05

Alec Pierce is a bust candidate because he is missing practice time while trying to learn a new role. The source would not draft him in the first 85 picks, preferring teammates like Josh Downs or Tyler Warren for the work he is expected to perform.

Insight page

Breece Hall

NegativeBust15:00

Dave Richard argues Breece Hall is a bust candidate because Frank Reich's history suggests a committee approach to running backs. Despite Hall being the lead back, Richard notes he had eight games under 10 PPR points in 2025 and believes he is not worth a third-round pick, preferring him in the fourth or fifth round.

Insight page

Bucky Irving

NegativeBust8:36

The analysts view Bucky Irving as an 'ultimate trap back' and believe his current ADP (mid-fourth round) is too high. They suggest he is more appropriately valued as a round five or six pick.

Insight page

Christian McCaffrey

NegativeBust2:06

Jamie Eisenberg highlights concerns regarding Christian McCaffrey's age (30), high career touch volume (two seasons over 400 touches), and current injury issues (tightness in practice). With the 49ers potentially implementing load management, Eisenberg suggests fading him in the first round if the missed practice time continues, noting he would now draft him no earlier than eighth or ninth overall.

Insight page

Courtland Sutton

NegativeBust56:23

Cortland Sutton is a bust candidate at his current ADP of 76th overall. While he may be second on the team in targets, the emergence of Pat Bryant and the presence of Jalen Waddle threaten his volume, likely leaving him with a low ceiling of six targets per game.

Insight page

Dallas Goedert

NegativeValue57:11

Dallas Goedert is currently being drafted too high (88th overall). While he has potential as a top-12 tight end and could benefit from Devonta Smith missing practice, the source suggests he should not be a top-100 pick given the depth at the position.

Insight page

Darren Waller

NegativeValue43:43

Darren Waller showed efficiency last year with 2.6 PPR points per target and 1.8 yards per route run, but his fantasy value is limited. The source suggests he could be a late-round streaming option to start the season against Chicago, but he is not a reliable long-term asset.

Insight page
NegativeUsage46:18

Darren Waller signed with the Panthers and, despite being 34, showed efficiency last year with 2.6 PPR points per target and 1.8 yards per route run. The source notes he may be used as a field-stretcher on the outside rather than a traditional tight end.

Insight page

De'Von Achane

NegativeBust9:56

Heath Cummings expresses concern over Devon Achane's upside due to the loss of Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel's influence, noting a significant PPR point drop-off without Tua. Furthermore, reports from joint practices suggest the Dolphins' offense may struggle, making his first-round ADP 'terrifying' to the point where Cummings would prefer other RBs like James Cook or Chase Brown.

Insight page

DeVonta Smith

NegativeInjury33:52

DeVonta Smith has been out of practice for a week, which the analysts note as a concern regarding his availability for the start of the season.

Insight page

James Cook

NegativeBust33:35

James Cook is viewed as a potential bust due to historical trends where rushing leaders see significant production drops the following year. Additionally, he has limited third-down route participation and splits goal-line work with Josh Allen. The source notes he is 190 pounds and coming off a 309-carry season, raising durability concerns.

Insight page

Jameson Williams

NegativeBust53:05

Jamison Williams is considered a bust at his current ADP (59th overall) because the Lions' offense is expected to lean heavily on Sam LaPorta. Additionally, concerns about the offensive line's ability to protect Jared Goff suggest a shift toward shorter, safer throws, which limits Williams' upside.

Insight page

Jonathan Taylor

NegativeBust30:36

Jonathan Taylor is labeled a potential bust because he has only finished as a top-six running back per game in two of his six seasons, yet is being drafted at that level. The source notes he performs significantly better in wins than losses and faces a challenging schedule, including tough run defenses like Houston, Tennessee, and Jacksonville.

Insight page

Josh Allen

NegativeValue48:46

The source advises against drafting Josh Allen in the second round, arguing it is at least a round too early. While he remains a top-tier quarterback, the value proposition compared to options available in rounds four or five makes him a player to avoid at his current ADP of 21.

Insight page

Josh Jacobs

NegativeBust50:03

Josh Jacobs is a player to avoid due to unresolved off-field issues and a current groin injury that has kept him out of practice. The source ranks him at the beginning of round four, significantly lower than his current ADP, citing too many variables that could lead to a bust season.

Insight page

Kenneth Walker III

NegativeUsage45:27

The source notes that Kenneth Walker is poised for a major role in the Chiefs' offense, which could reduce the reliance on short-area targets for players like Rasheed Rice and Travis Kelce. However, there is concern about his ability to sustain 17-plus touches per game for a full 17-game season.

Insight page

Kyle Pitts

NegativeValue13:59

Heath Cummings defends Kyle Pitts against 'bust' labels, arguing he is not being drafted as a top-five tight end. He notes that Pitts is moving well following his PCL injury and expects him to finish as a top-six tight end, especially given Kevin Stefanski's history of utilizing tight ends in the passing game.

Insight page

Nico Collins

NegativeBust39:04

Nico Collins is flagged as a potential bust because he requires a massive target share to justify his ADP at the 2-3 turn, yet he faces increased competition from Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Jaden Higgins. Recent reports regarding CJ Stroud's practice performance also add to the concern.

Insight page

Parker Washington

PositiveValue43:30

While there are concerns about target distribution in the Jacksonville offense, the source believes Parker Washington is undervalued at his current eighth-round ADP. The source suggests he should be drafted in the fifth or sixth round due to his efficiency on a per-target basis.

Insight page

Quinshon Judkins

NegativeBust37:17

Quinchon Judkins is considered a bust candidate due to a poor offensive line, limited passing game role, and a difficult quarterback situation. Coming off a major injury, his 17-game pace suggests he is being drafted near his ceiling as a mid-tier RB2.

Insight page

Rashee Rice

PositiveBust45:00

The source labels Rasheed Rice a bust candidate due to knee concerns and the overall Kansas City offensive situation. With Kenneth Walker expected to take a major role, Rice's target volume on short throws may decrease. He is viewed as a round three pick in full PPR and late round three or four in non-PPR.

Insight page

Rico Dowdle

PositiveValue54:36

Rico Dowdle is preferred over Jalen Warren in the Pittsburgh backfield because he is viewed as the 1A option and is more likely to secure goal-line opportunities. The source notes positive camp reports for Dowdle, though warns that the seventh round is too rich for either player.

Insight page

Terry McLaurin

PositiveBust42:02

Terry McLaurin is viewed as a bust candidate because he has only finished higher than WR20 per game once in his career. With the additions of Diggs and other target earners, the source is skeptical that McLaurin will maintain the high target volume needed to outperform his current ADP.

Insight page

Travis Etienne

NegativeBust12:08

Jamie Eisenberg notes that Kellen Moore's history suggests he does not utilize running backs as dominant pass-catchers, and the continued presence of Alvin Kamara limits Etienne's ceiling. Given the inconsistency in his career production, Eisenberg views him as a round five value rather than his current round four ADP.

Insight page

TreVeyon Henderson

NegativeBust59:55

Trevion Henderson is a bust candidate at his current ADP (51st-60th). The source notes he struggled significantly when Rhamondre Stevenson was healthy, averaging under 7 PPR points per game. He is viewed as a handcuff-dependent player, and the source prefers taking similar upside players like Blake Corum or Kyle Mononga rounds later.

Insight page

Trey McBride

PositiveBust8:17

Heath Cummings projects serious target regression for Trey McBride due to an expected decline in overall volume for the Cardinals' passing offense. Additionally, he notes that there are several tight ends available rounds later who offer similar fantasy value, making McBride a poor selection in the top 25-30 picks.

Insight page
PositiveProjection24:13

Despite concerns about target volume, the source projects Trey McBride to lead all tight ends in targets per game. The offense is expected to pass frequently, and McBride remains the team's best receiver with red-zone usage. Michael Fleur plans to integrate him into the offense in versatile ways, and the source dismisses the idea that he will decline significantly due to team changes.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

764
0:00This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports What a play!
0:04Can you believe this? He had no idea It's time to dominate your fantasy league Off to the races!
0:10And he stays on his feet! He's just gonna go the distance!
0:13Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath BUSTS It's an important show, but it's a sad topic We don't
0:21like to talk about people's potential failure But we need to do it for you, for the people Welcome to the show,
0:28it's Thursday, August 13th And on this show, we're talking about players who are going to disappoint We all randomly wore black
0:35today, so We are back in black! Oh man, sorry, that was terrible Oh, that was just awful That was just awful Do you want to start over?
0:44No, not really, let's just leave it there You can't, like, you can't do ACDC You either can or you can't And
0:51if you can't, then you shouldn't, right? Yeah, I wish you had known that 30 seconds ago It's a learning, everything's a
0:58learning experience, Dave Yeah, you're a BUSTS That was a BUSTS to start the show Also, Darren Waller signing with the Panthers
1:05Jadarian Price coming back to practice We got some news updates for you here Let's start out with, according to you Your
1:12PIC 2, you guys each gave 5 or 6 busts PIC 2 The two biggest busts in fantasy this year are Heath, who are they?
1:20The two biggest busts in fantasy this year are Trey McBride and Bucky Irving Jamie, who are they?
1:26Christian McCaffrey and Travis HN Wait, Travis HN? Because usually you're Devon HN You have your HNs right here?
1:32Sure, I'll go Devon HN Let's just go, you know what?
1:35Just go HN and HN Okay, I love it Dave, the two biggest busts in fantasy this year are?
1:42The ones on my list were Brees Hall and Kyle Pitts Brees Hall and Kyle Pitts Two biggest busts Interesting way to
1:49start the show Along with singing And the worst ACDC voice ever Let's talk about Let's talk about Christian McCaffrey Even though
1:56he wasn't officially named in this list He could be He could be, right?
2:00And it's starting to feel a lot like 2024 Jamie, I'll let you have the first word Why was Christian McCaffrey originally your answer?
2:08I mean, we have Two seasons in his career With over 400 total touches We have the following two seasons in his
2:15career Where he's missed time due to injury He's now 30 And the red flags are obvious And now he's missing time
2:22in practice With tightness in some part of his body It's the same situation that started to happen In 2024 After his
2:292023 season When he had over 400 total touches So I think there's Obvious reasons to draft him in round one There's
2:36obvious reasons to still draft him Sixth overall Which is what his ADP is There's obvious reasons to fade him also So
2:43For me, I'm probably going to avoid Christian McCaffrey And the longer this Lack of practice time lingers The more concerning it's
2:50going to be The closer I may get to putting him in round two I probably will not get there But It's
2:57going to be tough to keep him in round one If he continues to miss time As we saw again in 2024 When would you guys draft him?
3:06Christian McCaffrey The earliest would be ninth overall at this point I've got him eighth I have him eighth But I'm getting
3:13nervous too It's been three straight days No practice And I'm sure he's not going to play in their preseason game We
3:20don't know when he's going to be back We don't know the severity They're downplaying it in San Francisco For what it's
3:28worth But A lot of the moves that they made this offseason Were designed To take pressure off of him in the
3:35passing game And They've also talked about taking pressure off of him in the run game And now We're starting to see
3:42Possibly some sort of load maintenance Could be worse than that So you can start to actually build the case confidently For
3:49Chase Brown James Cook CeeDee Lamb And even Devon Achan Ahead of Christian McCaffrey If you wanted to build such a case
3:56Can I play something for you guys? If it's ACDC No No It sounds more like Ed Sheeran to me But Josh
4:03One of our listeners Made a bromance song About Christian McCaffrey So let's play a minute of it Because it Pretty much
4:10sums up everything you just talked about Here we go In fantasy football this year I have picked number three But I've
4:17got myself a dilemma Do I or do I not draft CMC?
4:21He's been so good to me some years But other years have been so hard And when he hasn't been here He's
4:28just broken my heart Oh see I'm injured And make me fall apart again There you go There's more But we'll leave
4:35it at that And it is the truth You're either the MVP Or you're injured Yeah I'm picturing Adam with the boombox
4:42over his head But I hear this song Absolutely Say anything I love it Okay so that's Christian McCaffrey He's obviously got
4:49to be in this discussion It says Trey McBride and Bucky Irving Why are they going to be two of the biggest busts this year?
4:57I think we're going to see some serious target regression From Trey McBride As part of the serious volume regression For the
5:04Cardinals pass offense And there are too many tight ends Available two, three, four rounds later That are going to be very,
5:11very similar to him To take him in the top 25 or 30 picks And Bucky?
5:16I just think he's the ultimate trap back Yeah so his ADP on CBS Is wildly different than on Fantasy Pros 42nd
5:24overall on CBS None of us are taking Bucky Irving there Oh man I'm wrong I'm sorry I thought he was in
5:31round five He's 44th on Fantasy Pros Okay so that is his ADP It's just when we do our drafts I never
5:38see Bucky go in the fifth round That's my fault So he's a fourth round pick Like a mid-fourth round pick Too early right?
5:45For everyone on Bucky Irving? Yes Yep Okay when would you take him?
5:50Around later I've got him at the 5-6 turn Round five Round five Okay and how about Devon H.N.
5:56and Travis Yeah Devon H.N. and Travis H.N. Well I think in the case of Devon H.N.
6:01We've covered this quite a bit His numbers with Tua Without Tua I think it's what 15 PPR points difference In what
6:08he's done Now that's A little misleading Because of When the games played And how the Performances were But I don't love
6:15the idea of him Not having Mike McDaniel And Tua Tungvalo If he had lost one Maybe it'd be a little bit
6:22different But losing both I think is problematic Obviously Jeff Halfley Coming out and saying He's going to get as many Touches
6:29as possible You can view that As a great thing You can view that As a good thing You can view it
6:36As a terrifying thing Because this team Could potentially be bad And just to sort of Put this in context They're doing
6:44their Joint practices With the commanders And several commanders Beat writers said This Dolphins team Is awful You know so Other people
6:51putting eyes On them in practice And seeing just how bad They could potentially be I don't think that's Encouraging for H.N.'s
6:58upside So The fact that his ADP Is still in round one Is terrifying to me I wouldn't take him Until the
7:05middle of round two He's I think RB8 for me Or 9 So I like Hampton better Walker better Gentie better Chase
7:12Brown better You know Continue to go up the list So I would be okay With him in round two I just
7:19don't think We're going to get him In round two In most of The drafts that we'll see Especially if ADP Tells us that For Travis H.N.
7:28The fact that Kellen Moore Came out this week And said that He's okay with You know Using two running backs After
7:35I think we were hoping Maybe that this would be The featured guy The fact that Alva Camara stays there Kellen Moore's
7:42history Does not suggest That the running backs Have dominant performances In the passing game They'll be used They just won't be
7:49used I think to the extent That we like to see He did a great job Pointing this out With Barkley A
7:56couple years ago So Moore Not using Travis H.N.
7:59In the passing game Still having Kamara In that role Still having another Running back That has The opportunity To have a
8:06little bit Of success And we have two Very different versions Of Travis H.N.
8:10Two years where he was good Two years where he was Absolutely awful And so Which version are we Going to get
8:17here I think he's worth Taking in round five But his ADP Puts him in round four Dave Your two Were Brees
8:24Hall And Kyle Pitts We We're going to have A rebuttal round Shortly I love it I didn't boo you When you
8:31said Those things About Trey McBride So I was hoping For a little bit More decorum Out of you Heath Cummings Kyle
8:39Pitts Kyle Pitts We've talked about it Like when he had Those games Without Drake London Last year Phenomenal Tight end One
8:46type stuff When Drake London Was on the field It's around 10 PPR points Per game That is Top 12 Tight end
8:53Worthy But it's not Top 5 Tight end Worthy I think he's Being taken Too soon And in the case Of Brees
9:00Hall I don't know How much is Really changing From last year To this year Obviously The quarterback Change is Something Having
9:07Geno Smith there But I think That's going to Impact just The aggressiveness Of the offense Throwing downfield More than anything Else
9:14And last year We saw it Even with A three-way Split Or however You want to Call it He was averaging 17.4
9:21Touches per game We'd kill for that And that came Through for 13 Full PPR Points per game He had 8 games
9:28Under 10 PPR points In 2025 What's changed He got paid Frank Reich Is there And Frank Reich Has always been A
9:35multi Running back Play caller And I'm pretty sure He's going to Say that way Even with this Nice rosy report About
9:42Brees Hall Being the lead back Yeah he was The lead back Last year And look how Good he was I don't
9:49think He's worth A round three Pick Late round four At the absolute Earliest Okay yeah Round three For Brees Hall Is
9:56definitely Earlier than we Than I see him Go in our CBS drafts Typically We're not Taking him there 32nd overall On
10:03fantasy I have him In round three Yeah he will take So here's the Rebuttal round Right so you Each get to
10:10Pick one thing That you heard And rebut So Heath You have to Choose though Are you I would do Brees Hall
10:17Because you Already made Your Kyle Pitts Breakout case On the breakout Show yesterday But you and Dave Oh man I love
10:25It but what's Your rebuttal For the Brees Hall Bus case Well if you Want to watch CBS Sports Network In just
10:32a Little bit You'll see my Rebuttal case When I talk a Lot about Brees Hall I'm not going To talk about
10:39Kyle Pitts There so I'll Just say like The first thing Is Kyle Pitts Is not being Drafted as a Top five
10:46Tight end So we Should stop Making the Argument Against him That he's Going to be A bust Because he's Not going
10:53To be a Top five Tight end Because he's Not being Drafted as A top five Tight end The second Thing is
11:00that I think Dave Is glossing Over Kevin Stefanski And his Long Illustrious Career of Short area Easy button Targets Two tight
11:07ends And the fact That since Kevin Stefanski Got there Because there Was no Guarantee that He was going To love Kyle
11:14Pitts Since he Got there They gave Kyle Pitts The mega Deal extension And then Recently we Heard that It sounds Like
11:21Kyle Pitts Is moving As well As he Was Early in His career Before the PCL Injury Kyle Pitts Is back It's
11:28going To be a Great time He's going As tight end Sex So I will Amend my Statement to Say that He
11:35will Not finish As a Tight end Six this Year Top six Tight end Okay Jamie which One would You like To
11:42rebut I guess The only Question I Would have Is for Brees Hall Because Dave Brings us up About frank Reich a
11:49lot Was jonathan Taylor in a Committee in 2021 when Frank Reich Was his Coach Yes Naheem Hines was The passing Downs
11:56back Jonathan Taylor Yeah Well that's Jonathan Taylor Early career Jonathan Taylor I'm not Going to Compare early Career Jonathan Taylor No
12:03no I mean If we were Comparing early Career Jonathan Taylor Same Offense Not the Same Offensive Lines Okay I would be
12:11Surprised if Brees had Taylor like Production Okay If we were Comparing Early season Jonathan Taylor To current Brees Hall Then we
12:18Would be Drafting Brees Hall Brees Hall's ADP Would be Closer To round One I think Just looking At it As I
12:25I think When Frank Rank Has a Guy He's Like most Coaches They're Going to Lean on That guy As much As
12:32they Possibly Can And I Like the Fact that At least Right now Isaiah Davis Banged up I think That helps Brees
12:39Hall's Case Even More To show What he Can do As a Pass Catcher I do Think This And Brees Hall Was
12:46Part Of That Crap And Now Yes It's Still Aaron Glenn It's Still A team That's Probably Not Going To Compete For
12:53A Playoff Spot But I Do Think That They Take A Step Forward And Hopefully A Step Forward In A Significant Way
13:00So I Don't Want to Overvalue Brees Hall As you See I Would not Take Him In Round Three I Think Round
13:07Four Is A Better Opportunity For But I Do Think Running Away From Brees Hall Is A Mistake I Do Think He's
13:14Going To Have A Much Better Season This Year And I Do Think Being More In Omari Hampton In The Backfield Even
13:21Though What He Said About This Chargers Backfield To Me Was Much Stronger Wording Than What He Said About The Dolphins Backfield
13:28Everybody Is Talking About Him Saying We'll Use Four Running backs Didn't Exactly Say That It In Times Shares So I Just
13:35Don't Really Care About That Too Much What We Don't Want Is And There's A Chance With The Jets There's Obviously A
13:42Chance With The Bucks Is We Don't Want To Come Off The Field On Third Down And At The Goal Line Is
13:49There A Chance With That With The Saints Too With Devin Neal I Don't Know I I If we're talking about Brees
13:57Hall not getting the passing downs work and not getting the goal line work, how is he any different from any of
14:04the other trap backs that we talked about? Now, that being said, do I really think Braylon is going to get every single goal line carry?
14:12Absolutely not. I think Brees Hall is going to get his fair share.
14:16But last year it wasn't very much. And this year it's going to be that much different.
14:22Is he going to get to eight total touchdowns this year?
14:25I'm nervous about that. I can't take him. And the ADP is very important.
14:30This is a round three pick according to ADP.
14:33And I just can't do it. I used to have him in round five.
14:37There have been too many other players that have gotten banged up or situations changed.
14:42That's pushed up Brees Hall for me into like the round four or five turn.
14:47And that's probably about as high as he's going to get for me.
14:51He's not going to be on my fantasy teams.
14:54All right. I think we should talk about Trey McBride.
14:57We'll do that in a bit. Also, if you've been listening to our show and, you know, even if it's fairly recently,
15:04I think you've heard a lot of the bus cases before.
15:08So some of the guys that we're going to talk about are Josh Allen, which is like we love Josh Allen.
15:14We're not taking him 21st overall where he's going on CBS.
15:18Travion Henderson, Alec Pierce, who's hurt right now. The Steelers running backs.
15:22We haven't talked too much about that. I'm curious to hear the Jamison Williams call from Dave because Chris Harris came on
15:29our show yesterday and had Jamison Williams as a breakout.
15:32So what I'm going to do is I'm going to look at some high end guys, four running backs and four wide receivers.
15:39And I'm going to make bus cases for them.
15:42And you tell me how much you buy them.
15:45For example, I'm going to make bus cases for Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.
15:50And based on you, the listener out there going, oh, yeah, I could see that.
15:54Well, that might influence your Christian McCaffrey pick. Right.
15:57Because it's obvious that Christian McCaffrey has a pretty strong bus case.
16:01If you think Jonathan Taylor and James Cook might also, well, then you might go, ah, screw it.
16:07I'll just take Christian McCaffrey. But we'll see. So we'll come back with that real quick.
16:12We are one week. We'll just take Chase Brown.
16:15Yeah, you could do that. Yeah, that's the one.
16:18I guess I could probably make a bus case for Chase Brown too.
16:22You could make a bus case for everybody. Yeah, you could.
16:26I did a whole story on why every first round pick is a bus case.
16:30Exactly. Tennis match. One week away. Here we go.
16:33Round three. Dan versus Adam. This time in the Florida heat where I think I will have somewhat of a home court advantage.
16:41But there are actually some auction items surrounding the tennis match.
16:44If you want to go to tinyurl.com slash FFTdonate2026 and you can see there are some things you can purchase like to
16:51kind of influence the game a little bit, just a little bit, just to have some fun.
16:57Can we add something to the auction list? What is it?
17:00Well, Heath made a pretty bold bet with you yesterday.
17:04Yeah, I'll take it. It's going to happen. Okay, good.
17:07So I think if people believe in Heath's side, like maybe we can add on to what Heath is donating because he's made a pretty big number there.
17:16And so I wonder like if people want to, I don't know the way to phrase this, but like if people want
17:23to add to what Heath is donating. So like basically Saturday was a flowers and they win that they donate that money.
17:30I see. That's why I think we should just do a straight up scene.
17:34No, no, no, no, no, no. You're not getting it.
17:38No, no, no, no. Because this we do a straight up St.
17:41Jude bet and then people can be on the Zay flower side or the Devante Smith side.
17:47And then no matter what, we're going to raise a lot of money.
17:51We're going to raise far less money if the prospect of you growing a beard for four months is not on the table.
17:58So this is this is Adam has to grow a beard for four months.
18:03If Zay flowers is not a top. No, no.
18:06Devante Smith outscores Zay flowers. No, no. Other way around.
18:09You're on the Devante Smith side. Then Heath wins.
18:12Yeah, that's fine. I just want to establish the rules of which games we're counting.
18:17That's all. I want to know what's going to happen when you shave after three weeks and you go, I can't do it.
18:24I can't do it. I can't hold up. I've got this is the problem.
18:29I have an event in January. I can't show up to that event with a huge beard.
18:34That what? So you're already saying you're not going to do it.
18:38I just you. What's the event? Are you surprised?
18:41It's a Thomas. Thomas, can you pull up a bat mitzvah?
18:44I can't go to my niece's bat mitzvah. Yes, you can.
18:48No, I can't. I can't do that. By January, you should have like just the regular beard.
18:53Well, no, because he said the moment the Giants are eliminated from the playoff.
18:58They're not going to be eliminated in October. That could be September.
19:02That's not. No. All right. I would like it if after the break, Thomas just shows Dan's poll that he put up
19:09in response to the they put the clip of yesterday's bet and Thomas put a poll up in response.
19:15By the way. So what's what's the number you're putting up, Heath?
19:19$500. Okay. So here's what I'll do. If Adam lives up to the bet, I will also put $500.
19:25All right. The bet then it's on. The bet is on.
19:28I have no problem with the bet. I just, well, I have that slight problem in January, but I have no problem.
19:35No, you have to live up to the bet.
19:38If you do. So now we're both putting there.
19:41There's money going to St. Jude no matter what.
19:44If you do your job. Yeah. Okay. Fine. But it's like, it's gotta be like games that they don't leave early with him.
19:52Whatever you establish. As long as you, when you lose, if you lose, you have to, whatever the, the, the terms are, I will match Heath's promise.
20:00All right. So that we're make sure we're giving money to St.
20:04Jude. All right. All right. All right. All right.
20:07I'm in. Why can't it just be PPR points per game?
20:11Because Adam wants to be able to count the games that he only thinks should go.
20:16Hey, this could work out in your favor. He wants it to be an Ager stat bet.
20:21No, this could work out in your favor. Okay.
20:24Lamar Jackson gets hurt and Zay Flowers starts struggling.
20:27I'm not going to hold that against you. I got some other things to talk about.
20:32Devonzie Smith has already hurt. He's been out of practice for a week.
20:36I know. Yeah. Can we at least establish that he's got to come back to practice somewhat soon for this bet?
20:43Maybe if you were concerned about the guy that hasn't practiced in seven practices, you shouldn't have immediately jumped on me in the middle of a breakout show.
20:52Yeah, Zay Flowers is back. He's back. He's fine.
20:55Zay's back at least. All right. So we, Dave's doing this thing where if you pay like, I think $75, we'll set your draft order for you.
21:04We have one of those coming up at the end of the show.
21:08Ryan, thanks for your donation. We're going to set your draft order.
21:12We've got some, I'm going to start sending out FFT open invites today.
21:16Not all of them, but some of them will come out starting today.
21:20Our drafts are going to start on Monday, August 24th.
21:23They're going to be slow drafts that could take a week or two.
21:27Beyond the Box Score, make sure you listen to that.
21:31FFT Dynasty, make sure you listen to that. And we're going to take a break and come right back after this.
21:37Okay. I think we're back here. I'm completely thrown off by all this beard and bet talk, but we, let's get, um, hold on.
21:45Dave, you want to, you want to rebut the Travis, the Trey McBride bus call?
21:50Sure. But just, I think there should be an amendment to the bet as well, because you're worried about how you're going
21:57to look by going to a bar mitzvah in January.
22:00And I don't want you to have that worry.
22:03Heath, would you be okay if he just kept a beard?
22:06He did trim it and made it look presentable.
22:09He's got to look like a wild man for four months.
22:13That's just ridiculous. You're not going to look that bad by January.
22:17Yeah. I think I will. No, you won't. So if you're just listening and you're not watching.
22:22You've seen the hair on his arms, you know how fast his hair grows.
22:27Dan asked, what are the chances Adam has an excuse for why he can't grow his beard out?
22:33The chances, the choices are 100%, 75%, 50%, 0%.
22:35No one's voted for 0% yet. 73.9% of people thought there was a 100% chance Adam would have an excuse and have already been proven correct.
22:44When is... Tom has voted for 100%. That really hurts.
22:47When is the event? I don't know. It's sometime in January.
22:50So, I mean, the Giants could still be in the playoffs by then.
22:55I have to grow a beard from the moment the Giants are limited to the playoffs until April, until the NFL draft.
23:02Until the Giants make their pick. What if the Giants make the playoffs?
23:06I hope they trade their first round pick. Please, for the love of God, give us one more day.
23:12What if they make the playoffs? If they make the playoffs, he doesn't have to grow anything.
23:17No, then he has to start growing it as soon as they lose in the playoffs.
23:23Yeah, you didn't say that, though. Yes. You said when they're eliminated from the playoffs.
23:27When you lose a playoff game, you are eliminated from the playoffs.
23:31Oh, yeah, I guess. If you put it that way, I thought it was ridiculous.
23:36No, I thought you meant eliminated from the playoffs during the season.
23:40This sucks. I really don't like this. But I'm just going to say.
23:44What if they win the Super Bowl? Yeah, they have to win the Super Bowl.
23:49And then he's out of it for sure. The Giants somehow win.
23:53I hate this. I really don't like it. I can't grow a beard for five months.
23:58That is crazy. But there should be a St.
24:01Jude buyout. I could pay a certain amount to get out of it.
24:05Ten grand. Five hundred? Ten grand is great. Fair.
24:08All right, all right, all right. We got to get back to our show here.
24:13Dave, why is Trey McBride? Please, people. We've said these busts a million times.
24:17Who cares? Everybody's drafting Trey McBride with a top 30 pick anyway.
24:21They don't need to hear my bold case for Trey McBride.
24:25No, he's a huge lightning rod. He's going 27th overall in CBS ADP.
24:29I think he's going earlier than that in Fantasy Pros ADP.
24:32And yeah, I get the case against him. I also get the fact that he's been basically the most consistent target earner
24:39in the NFL or among them for two and a half years.
24:43So Dave, you don't think, you know, let's say the two three turn is too early for Trey McBride?
24:49No. First of all, he grows a fantastic beard.
24:52And I've heard from sources that when he makes a bet, he doesn't make excuses when it comes to getting out of
24:59them and that he actually pays off the bet.
25:02So good for Trey McBride. But I get what he's saying, and I agree to an extent that the target volume is going to go down.
25:11But Arizona is still going to pass a lot.
25:13They're still going to be in garbage time a lot.
25:17Their defense is in bad shape. And I think we're going to see Trey McBride lead all tight ends in targets per game.
25:24That's a really good start. Tack on that Jacoby Brissett has always been a tight end guy.
25:30And Carson Beck so far has not really embarrassed himself in the Hall of Fame game, in recent training camps.
25:36So when he does get his opportunity, I think he'll be able to connect with McBride.
25:41I've heard Michael Fleur talk about how much he loves Trey McBride and how he's going to weave him into the offense
25:48in ways that the Rams couldn't necessarily find one tight end to do that.
25:53He's their best receiver and he gets targets in the red zone.
25:57And I think it's crazy to think that he's going to turn into a bad fantasy tight end.
26:02And maybe that's too strong of a term, but not one of the best fantasy tight ends just because some things are changing in Arizona.
26:10I don't think enough is a changing is a changing.
26:14Enough is a change in. I don't think enough is changing in Arizona.
26:18I still think Trey McBride is going to be the runaway leader in targets and receiving touchdowns.
26:23And he's going to be a great fantasy tight end.
26:26Heath, just give the 30 second stat statistical analysis of why you don't believe in Trey McBride this year.
26:32Um, well, it's directly related to the fact that I'm so excited about Sam Laporta and Kyle Fitz because those Trey McBride
26:40and here and Harold fan last year had two of the most tight end friendly play callers.
26:45They lost those play callers. They were replaced maybe with maybe with better play callers, but not guys that target the tight
26:52end position as much Trey McBride's target share and especially touchdowns were influenced by Marvin Harrison Jr.'s absence.
26:58And then the other thing I would say is like this idea of Jacoby Brissett, we have to remember who he was before last year.
27:06Like you were right to call him fantasy kryptonite at one point.
27:10Fantasy poison. Poison. It's a great term. He started the first five games for the Patriots in 2024.
27:16He had a pretty decent tight end in Hunter Henry.
27:19Hunter Henry scored 6.8 PPR fantasy points in those five games.
27:22He barely threw though in those games. You know, I think anyway, 2024.
27:26But yeah, no, I mean, look, he's 20 percent.
27:29We all think that they're going to suck this year.
27:33They have the heart. One of the hardest schedules in football.
27:36Carson Beck is seems like he's probably going to play at some point.
27:40Maybe it's a good thing. I don't know. But OK, that's the case against Trey McBride.
27:45But let's do this potential busts that we haven't talked about.
27:49Because like you said, Jamie, people have heard these busts over and over again.
27:53So I'm going to give some other guys, high end guys.
27:57Ashton Gentry. Why do I think he might be a bust?
28:01He was a bust last season. Has enough changed?
28:03He had 266 carries in 17 games. So we love the fact that he's going to get a ton of work.
28:10But they went 3-14. They stunk. They might stink again.
28:13They have to face the Raiders have to face the AFC West, which is obviously really good.
28:19Other than the Raiders. The NFC West, which is really good.
28:22And the AFC East, which has the Bills and the Patriots.
28:26And then the Jets and the Dolphins. They do get four easy games though.
28:30Well, not necessarily. But Saints, Browns, Titans, Cardinals. So Gentry, bad last year.
28:35Has enough changed. Schedule looks really tough. I think the team's going to be really bad.
28:40May not get like the 300 carry workhorse that you expect.
28:43Because he's going to get all the carries. But he only had 266 last year.
28:48That's my bust case for Ashton Gentry. Bust-o-meter for Ashton Gentry.
28:52Zero to ten. Four? Two. Four. All right. You're not really feeling the bust case then.
28:57The schedule is a really important factor. And an underrated factor for sure.
29:01The schedule's tough. He also had probably his best game last year against the Texans.
29:06So factor that in. That he did do well against a really tough defense.
29:10I think he's going to get the work in the passing game that we covet for a player that's going in this range.
29:18And the offensive environment should be significantly better. Simply by just the offensive line being better.
29:23I mean, the addition of Linderbaum and Colton Miller being healthy.
29:26Those are two cornerstones that you look for to help any team.
29:30And if Linderbaum is still the type of player that he was last year or been in his career.
29:36And Miller was before injury. Then I think that helps Gentry tremendously.
29:40So for me, it's a first-round pick. And for what it's worth.
29:44We always talk about how we know a lot more about the defenses or think we do early in the season than we do late in the season.
29:53And he starts off with Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs.
29:56That's not particularly difficult. The Chargers and Chiefs are good.
29:59But probably not difference makers. The other two teams are probably terrible.
30:03Chargers might be. Well, like we're going to sit Ashton Gentry for any game anyway.
30:08No, the Chargers have a very – I mean, the – Chargers probably will have the best defense in the NFL.
30:14They had a great defense last year. It's not the stretch, you know.
30:19Oh, God, I hope the Chargers just pummel the Chiefs.
30:22I am such a Chargers fan this year. Gentry, the good thing about him, right, is like, okay, bad game script.
30:29Well, he's still on the field all the time catching passes.
30:32Yep. All right. Next up, I'm going to take Jonathan Taylor here.
30:36He's been in the league six years. He's been a top six running back per game in only two of six seasons.
30:43And he's being drafted like that right now. Each of the last two years at least – I didn't even go back before that.
30:51But each of the last two years at least, Jonathan Taylor has been much better in wins than losses.
30:57Hat tip to Jake Seeley on that one. He's another guy who could have a tough schedule.
31:02Obviously, two matchups against Houston. Tennessee usually has a pretty good run defense.
31:07Jacksonville has a good run defense. There's more. Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia.
31:10But I don't know. Taylor, I guess it's like he's probably a little overrated based on his career.
31:16That would be my bust case for Taylor. And I'm worried about the Colts offense.
31:21Zero to ten. One. It was a two before you went – I don't know what that was.
31:26I'm just trying to look to see how many times he finished seventh in fantasy points per game.
31:32Well, he's been drafted as RB3. Let's see. Against Houston last year, he was held in relative check.
31:38I don't think he scored in either game. I'm going to save you time and just tell you that the second half
31:45of the year, he really struggled because their schedule got brutal.
31:49Of course. And hello, there was no Daniel Jones.
31:51He had five total touchdowns against Tennessee last year.
31:54Yeah. Tennessee may not be. He didn't have any games over 15.5 PBR points once Jones broke his leg.
32:00Right. Right. You know, again, you have to trust in Daniel Jones, which I don't think a lot of people say, yay, it's Daniel Jones.
32:09But the offense was definitely much better in the beginning part of the season.
32:13The team was much better in the beginning part of the season.
32:17I think this is if DeForest Buckner is healthy, I think this defense could be, you know, above average, especially with Sauce Gardner being there.
32:25Forget about what you just saw A.J. Brown doing to Sauce Gardner.
32:29Brown's probably going to do that to a lot of cornerbacks.
32:32The thing that I love about Jonathan Taylor is like we saw not a huge spike, but a spike in his role in the passing game last year.
32:41And if that continues, so get him over 40 catches again, that's a huge bonus for what he gives you.
32:48So you're hearing right now Seth McGowan as the backup guy, and that's another player we should put at the back end
32:55of our drafts because, you know, Taylor's a year older.
32:58And we did hear this offseason that they want to take maybe a little bit of work off his plate.
33:04So just, you know, in the Marshawn Lloyd, Ray Davis, you know, those type of Mike Washington, those type of guys, you know, put McGowan on your list.
33:13But I think Taylor is going to be one of these guys that in the conversation for rushing title, rushing for carries,
33:20carry leaders, touchdown leaders, like he's got those things in his resume very easily and things he can accomplish the season.
33:27So I don't know. It's a small bust case, I guess.
33:31No, look, we think he's safe. That's fine. Next up, James Cook.
33:35James Cook averaging about two catches per game the last two seasons.
33:38In terms of, you know, great running backs who are on the field on third down less than James Cook for route
33:46participation, Derek Henry is the only guy who's getting fewer third down routes than James Cook.
33:51He splits goal line work with Josh Allen. James Cook has really benefited from the Bills becoming super run heavy.
33:57Does that change at all with the addition of DJ Moore?
34:01And then the other thing is like he's 190 pounds, at least according to pro football reference.
34:06And he's coming off a season with 309 carries in the regular season.
34:10So any concerns there? Zero to 10 on James Cook.
34:13One. Four. Six. Oh, six. Which argument resonates the most with you, Jamie?
34:18The one that I gave you a couple weeks ago of the rushing leader in the following season in their production.
34:24So the last five rushing leaders have lost at least 835 yards and six touchdowns the following year.
34:30And two of those guys suffered significant injuries. Derek Henry with a broken foot and Christian McCaffrey, as we previously talked about, 2024, only played four games.
34:39So the thing that I keep going back to with Cook is he obviously is still young enough in his career.
34:46And you referenced in terms of the done work.
34:49That's all we've heard this training camp is that they're using their running backs more in the passing game and that James
34:56Cook is going to have a bigger role doing that.
34:59Ty Johnson's currently hurt dealing with knee injury. We'll see if he's back for week one.
35:04That would be the biggest threat to his role in the passing game, more so than Ray Davis.
35:10So I still think Cook is a first-round pick.
35:13But this was a guy that I was considering as a top three running back.
35:17Now he's closer to six. Again, still somebody I would take in round one, but toward the back end of round one.
35:24But you can't penalize him for winning the rushing title and not penalizing.
35:29It's not penalizing. It's just history. Yeah, but look, he had 40 more yards than Jonathan Taylor.
35:34And he probably had more carries than Jonathan Taylor.
35:37But if you're going to be concerned about a guy getting a lot of carries, getting a lot of rushing yards, just
35:44because James Cook happened to be a little bit better than Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry for that matter, they're the same bust.
35:51I don't know. It seems like they're the same kind.
35:55No, I mean, again, you can dissect it however you want to.
35:59It's the same thing I said last year about the 2,000-yard rushers.
36:02You know, the history for what it's worth had suggested small sample size.
36:07There are only eight of those. There's only five guys that we're talking about here.
36:11And prior to those last five guys, there was still, you know, enough data that shows that the rushing leader was still successful and healthy.
36:19But I don't know. It's just another thing to be, for me, to be a little concerned about.
36:25When you say you're taking 800 yards off of somebody's number for the last five guys that have done this.
36:32Now, again, points per game if you want to look at it that way.
36:36So, Derrick Henry, the year that he broke his foot, as we remember, that first half of the season, he was still Derrick Henry.
36:44You know, so before he got hurt, he was still producing at a very high level.
36:49I don't know. It's just, for me, when I see stuff like that, it's a reason just to downgrade him a little bit.
36:56All right, we got to take a break. We'll get through the rest of these guys.
37:02Heath has to bounce pretty soon. And then we'll let him talk about his bust.
37:06We also have some news and notes to update you on.
37:10We'll go through the rest of this list fairly quickly here.
37:13We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. We're back.
37:17Okay, Quinchon Judkins on the bustometer. Judkins may have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
37:22He has a limited role in the passing game.
37:25He has an unbelievably bad quarterback situation, it seems.
37:28If you look at his 17-game pace removing three games where he played less than 40% of the snaps, it was a
37:35lot of touches, but 13.1 points per game would have made Judkins the number 20 running back per game in PPR, which
37:42is about where he's being drafted, better and non and half PPR.
37:46And he's coming off a major injury. So I actually would put him as like a six or seven, Quinchon Judkins, personally.
37:53How about you guys, Judkins? That's the argument for him.
37:56I think that's a solid argument for him. So I'm going to give you a six.
38:02Two because of his cost. Okay. I said four.
38:04Four. All right. Nico Collins. Let's get some wide receivers here.
38:08Nico Collins was the number 11 wide receiver per game last year, and that's basically where he's going this year.
38:14But no other wide receiver on the team earned more than 68 targets.
38:19We did have Dalton Schultz with 106, but he's still there.
38:22Jaden Higgins is having a good camp. Jalen Knoll comes into his second season.
38:27Tank Dell is back. And I don't know. I just read a recent practice report about CJ Stroud, and it wasn't very encouraging here.
38:34So I guess the argument is Nico Collins needs a massive target share.
38:39He didn't really get it last year. What's your concern for Nico Collins?
38:43Zero to 10 on the bustometer at the 2-3 turn.
38:46Three. So now we're not grading your bust case.
38:49This is just how nervous we are about Nico Collins.
38:52Well, I just made the bust. I mean, it's the same, no?
38:56Right. So I'm a little nervous. I'll give him a six.
38:59I'm a little nervous about Nico. That's pretty high.
39:02Jamie, what'd you say? Four. Zay Flowers. He was the number 36 wide receiver.
39:07Number 36 wide receiver per game in 24. Zero.
39:10Number 12 wide receiver per game in 2025. He had right around seven targets per game, which isn't really that much to begin with.
39:17So I've got a boo and I've got a zero.
39:21Dave has a third or a fourth round pick.
39:24Zero to 10 on the bustometer for Flowers. Well, which is it?
39:27Is it a third round pick or a fourth round pick?
39:31Let's call it the turn. If it's a fourth round pick, I'm good with it.
39:36If it's a third round pick, unless it's like literally 36, I'm probably going to say it's a little too soon.
39:42Oh, here's one I have a little bit of.
39:45It's pretty crazy the ADP that we have on CBS for those receivers.
39:50Yeah, we've got some very strange ADP. Like starting at 37, when you look at the ADP, not the actual number.
39:56Right. All those guys are starting to go in round four.
40:00Yep. Yeah, it's really not that dissimilar on Fantasy Pros.
40:03Dave Flowers is 38th on both websites. McMillan. Yeah, that's great.
40:07But Abuka's in round four. Devontae Smith is round four.
40:10Oh, Devontae Smith in round four. That's, I don't think he is on Fantasy.
40:14Just inside round four. Yeah, he's right at the turn.
40:17Three, four. Okay, this one I actually have, I feel a little conviction on.
40:22Terry McLaurin. He's going to be 31 years old in September.
40:26Terry McLaurin has one season in his career, finishing higher than wide receiver 20 per game.
40:31In that season, he had 117 targets in 17 games from Jaden Daniels.
40:35And second best on the team was Olamide Zaccheaus with 64 targets.
40:39Oh, no. I think Zach, sorry. Zach Ertz had 91.
40:42Then Zaccheaus had 64. So now we add Okonkwo.
40:45We add Diggs. There's more numbers. I'm not going to get into the target per out rate numbers.
40:51But McLaurin, bustometer, zero to ten. Four. I think it would be easier to say that when we see where his ADP settles.
40:58It's still falling. He's down to, I think that the number Adam likes to use is 51.
41:03So he's around five pick now. So I'll say a two.
41:07All right. Last one. The apple of everyone's eye.
41:10Parker Washington. I get that he looks great in camp.
41:13I get it. But so does Brian Thomas Jr.
41:16Apparently and Travis Hunter is playing on offense and Jacoby Meyer exists.
41:20Myers exists. And Brenton strange signed a three year, $36 million deal.
41:24So he's still there. Like on a per target basis, I bet Parker Washington is going to be really good.
41:30But you know, the obvious concern here is there won't be enough targets for any one player.
41:36And if it, yeah, and maybe forget it. I'll stop there.
41:39Zero to ten for Parker Washington. Let's say he's a sixth round pick.
41:43Sixth round? Yeah. If he's a sixth round pick, then the number is like two.
41:48His ADP says he's an eighth round pick, which makes him a negative 17 on the bustometer.
41:54Yeah. Yeah. I can't make a case against him in the eighth round.
41:58All right. Do you think he should be a sixth round pick?
42:02Yeah. Buddy in full PPR. I'm okay with him with a late fifth round pick.
42:06Buddy went to pieces. I've got him right in smack dab in the middle of round pick.
42:12No, buddy with a rock. All right. Thank you very much for playing this game of bustometer.
42:17There have been so many things that you have done on this show that I have just left me completely like, not
42:24just like I get it, but you shouldn't have done that.
42:28Just like I have no idea what is going on in your brain.
42:32The scene in Airplane 2 where this guy is testifying about Buddy, Andy, and Howie flying over Macho Grande has given me so many one-liners on this show.
42:41Because I'm like, would you take him over Devon HN?
42:44Would you take him over Marion Hampton? Over Ash and Genty?
42:48And then I'll be like, over Macho Grande? And a lot of people get the reference and they love it.
42:54But you should watch that scene, the courtroom scene in Airplane 2.
42:58It is so clever. Because he's talking about guys named Andy, Buddy, and Howie.
43:03But it also sounds like he's saying, and he, but he, how he.
43:07And it's very clever. Anyway. Yeah, I think it really is like explanatory of the podcast that my courtroom scene that I
43:14quote is a few good men and you were just from Airplane 2.
43:18That's brilliant. Also that you've seen Airplane 2 and not Sopranos.
43:22Yeah. Well, that's true. I've seen some of the Sopranos.
43:25Guys, let's get into the news and notes brought to you by Stitch Fix.
43:29If you're like me and clothes shopping isn't your thing, Stitch Fix has you covered.
43:34Get styled today at stitchfix.com slash football. Okay, the Panthers signed Darren Waller.
43:38He will be 34 years old in September, but he was pretty good last year.
43:43And despite averaging 45.1% of the snaps, he averaged 2.6 PPR fantasy points per target.
43:48That would have been second among tight ends behind Tucker Craft.
43:511.8 yards per outrun. So it wasn't just touchdowns.
43:541.8 yards per outrun for Waller. That's basically tied or just slightly ahead of Trey McBride last year.
44:00And Waller had what would have been the highest A dot among tight ends if he had, you know, had enough targets.
44:07But is there any fantasy value, Heath, for Darren Waller?
44:10I think everybody hopes not. I think, like, hopefully he was used so much downfield for Miami that they're just going to
44:17have him stretch the field on the outside like they were going to do with Chris Brazel.
44:23And then Ted Rowe McMillan can play a little more in the slot.
44:27Not that far downfield. It's about a 10-yard A dot.
44:30That's pretty low for a wide receiver but high for a tight end.
44:34There's average for a wide receiver. All right. So no one's drafting.
44:38I saw Jamie pick them up in a tight end premium dynasty league.
44:43That makes sense. You could stream him to begin the year against Chicago that just lost Kobe Bryant to injury.
44:49Bears don't have a great pass rush. But that's basically the best case I can make is that you could take Waller
44:56super late and start him and then find somebody healthier sooner than later.
45:00Let's see. It's not enough to be wide receiver five.
45:03But bustometer for Rice because of the knee. It's just because of the knee.
45:08It's like a five. But because of the entire situation in Kansas City, it's six and a half, maybe seven.
45:14Because I don't think there's a world where we can expect good numbers from Rice and Walker every single week.
45:21I think part of Rice's role in his career has been related to the Chiefs' inability to run the football.
45:27And I am now starting to understand how good Kenneth Walker can be for this offense.
45:32I'm still nervous about Walker surviving 17 games on 17-plus touches a week.
45:36But if he's going to have this major role, that's going to ease off on those short throws to Rasheed Rice and
45:44Travis Kelsey and whoever else was getting them in years prior.
45:47And if Rasheed Rice is going to be targeted on downfield throws, that's been a mixed bag in the past.
45:54Sometimes he looks great running those over routes. He's good at finding openings and zone coverage.
45:59But it's not like he's a burner. So I think he's a round three pick in full PPR.
46:04And I'm probably going to start entertaining him in late round three, round four if it's non-PPR.
46:10Wow. All right. You and I, let's make a date to debate Rasheed Rice.
46:14And we'll do a fun video. And then we'll grow beards.
46:18The rest of the show, Heath, is all you until you have to leave.
46:22OK? I want to get plenty of Heath time in there.
46:26So let's see. We got Emeka Buka has a minor toe injury.
46:30Oh, Heath, Ben Johnson wants the Bears to score the most points in NFL history.
46:35Does that impact you at all in terms of your rankings?
46:38No. I like it. You know, I like the Bruce Arians strategy of just like, let's just embarrass people.
46:44That seems to be what he wants to do.
46:47Deshaun Watson will start. But every coach wants to do.
46:50No, not necessarily. Abbey Slowik would do it. A lot of coaches take their foot off the gas.
46:56Do you think Mike McDaniel wants to have the highest squaring offense in NFL history?
47:01I do. Yeah. Yeah. And he probably will. Probably will.
47:04Deshaun Watson is going to start. You should do some sort of double or nothing.
47:09Chargers versus Chiefs. That might save your beard. Oh, I love it.
47:13All right. Deshaun Watson. Oh, God. What if I lose both?
47:16We'll start Cleveland's preseason opener. Shadir Sanders will start the second preseason game.
47:21Tuisonga Bailoa is going to start this week, but the Falcons haven't made a decision on starting quarterback yet.
47:27We had a write-up on our website of the Commanders-Dolphins joint practice.
47:31Stefan Diggs was impressive. Ja'Kory Krosky-Meritt got the most reps with the starters.
47:35Caleb Douglas for the Dolphins. He keeps getting good reviews.
47:38And the 49ers signed Zamir White. And thank you to Stitch Fix for sponsoring today's news and notes.
47:44Stitch Fix takes the hassle out of clothes shopping.
47:47Just take a quick style quiz, share your size, your vibe, and your budget, and you'll be matched with a real human
47:54stylist who will send you a first fix with clothes that fit and make sense for your life.
47:59Stop shopping and get style today at stitchfix.com slash football.
48:03That's stitchfix.com slash football. All right. Here we go, Heath.
48:06Your busts. Josh Allen going 21st. Josh Jacobs going 25th.
48:09Trey McBride, 27th. Bucky Irving, 42nd. And Alec Pierce, 67th.
48:12Heath, you're up, buddy. This is not an anti-Josh Allen take.
48:16It's an anti-quarterback in round two take. I think we all think that that is at least a round two early.
48:23Last year and pretty much every year, Josh Allen's going to be a top three quarterback after week 17 before he plays one snap in week 18.
48:31And I expect him to be awesome once again.
48:34I don't think relative to the guys you can get in round four or five at the quarterback position that Josh Allen's
48:41going to make you feel good about taking him 19th overall ahead of Rashi, Rice, Kenneth Walker, George Pickens, and A.J.
48:48Brown. I think we've all got somebody in that group that was like, what?
48:52Don't do that, please. Wait until round three. If somebody else takes Josh Allen in round two, just laugh at them and
49:00wait a little bit longer and take another quarterback, Josh Jacobs.
49:03My quarterback, by the way, off the board is Lamar Jackson at 40.
49:07Right. 40. Huge gap. Yeah. Josh Jacobs is kind of in that group, which I think with Rice, it's the same thing.
49:14With McCaffrey, it's the same thing. And with A-Chan, it's the same thing.
49:18It's like this guy is probably either going to be a bust or he's going to make us wonder why we let
49:26him fall that far because we knew he was awesome.
49:29Unfortunately, now we've found that there are two different things to worry about with Josh Jacobs.
49:34They still haven't resolved his off the field issues.
49:37He's also not practicing because he has a groin injury and is going to be out for at least another week.
49:44Marshawn Lloyd has looked very good at practice. He won't matter if Josh Jacobs is not suspended and not hurt, but I
49:51just can't go all the way back to round two or the two, three turn for a guy that we have this
49:58many questions about this far away from the season.
50:01So I am avoiding Josh Jacobs. There's too many ways that he could bust.
50:05We talked about Trey McBride. We talked about Bucky Irving.
50:08I hate the fact that Alec Pierce is supposed to be learning this new role as a wide receiver and not getting to practice with the team.
50:17There is no chance that I would take him in round six at this point.
50:22I don't really even like taking him in round eight.
50:25He has been awesome in the role of running very fast past the defense.
50:29Um, we've not seen him do the other stuff successfully.
50:33Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, much more suited to do that type of work.
50:37I would not want to draft Alec Pierce in the first 85 picks.
50:41When would you draft Josh Jacobs? I think I have him at the very beginning of round four.
50:47Man, he's going to be a really tough one.
50:50People, we're getting to the point where drafts are starting and, you know, we just don't know.
50:55We just don't know what to do with Josh Jacobs.
50:58And would you rather have Josh Jacobs or Malik neighbors?
51:02Neighbors. Neighbors. Okay. Brees Hall or Jacobs? Hall. Right now.
51:05Jacobs for now. Change quickly. Dave, Jake, uh, Marshawn Lloyd or Brees Hall?
51:09Brees. All right. Is there anything you guys want to have?
51:13Has anybody drafted Josh Allen even in the top 30 at any point this year?
51:17I don't think I have. Super flexed. Yeah. And a super flexed draft.
51:22I would say I'm not going to have any Josh Allen, but I know I'm going to do enough drafts with people
51:29who have no intention of drafting Josh Allen. It might get to the point where I just think.
51:34I felt like the biggest idiot. I talked about this.
51:38We did our pick by pick series and I took Josh Allen at 37th and he was my favorite pick in the draft.
51:45I get that. That feels fantastic to get Josh Allen in round four, but also I know that's not the reality for the vast majority of you listening.
51:54Yeah. But the fact that we only have one quarterback in round two is pretty good.
51:59Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. And in the first three rounds.
52:02Okay. Okay. Dave, why don't you talk about Jamison Williams?
52:05See it. All right. Later. Talk about Jamison Williams as a bust going late in the fifth round 59th overall.
52:12I just feel like it's too soon for him.
52:15Just want to tease the rest. It's the Steelers running backs, Cortland Sutton and Dallas Goddard.
52:20But yeah, start with Jamo. I'll do one at a time.
52:23We'll start with Jamo. And I love what he did last year.
52:27Once Dan Campbell called plays, it was 16.2 PPR points per game.
52:31Eight of the 10 games where this happened, Sam Laporta wasn't on the field.
52:35Laporta is healthy. Now he is starting to round into form according to reports out of Detroit.
52:41And this is going to be an offense that I think leans into Laporta.
52:45Goff talked about him as a big time stud and golf is going to look for those easier throws, especially if now
52:52there's a problem in the middle of the Detroit offensive line.
52:56And it sounds like there's going to be one at least to begin the season.
53:01We know that Jared Goff is very pressure sensitive.
53:04He's not going to have the same kind of time, at least in the early going, if that offensive line can't protect him.
53:11And if that's the case, he's going to throw short.
53:14And that's great for St. Brown. That's great for Laporta.
53:18Makes me nervous for Jamison Williams. I think he's just going to end up being inconsistent.
53:23The perfect type of boom bust number three wide receiver.
53:26And if you view him through that lens, you can't take him in round five.
53:31And really, you shouldn't take him in round six either.
53:34There's too many other players that have a higher profile and should be more consistent if that's going to be what we get out of Jamo.
53:42By the way, when he was playing with St.
53:45Brown and Laporta last year, 4.8 targets per game.
53:48I don't think that's going to go up that much in 2026.
53:52Yeah, I just I wonder who that's going behind him.
53:55You're definitively taking over Jamison Williams. It's a little bit easier on CBS right now, maybe because we've got DJ Moore and Mike Evans going behind him.
54:04Are you taking those guys ahead of Jamison Williams?
54:07Definitely DJ Moore. And I do have Mike, Mike Evans one spot behind Jamo.
54:11Okay. And then we've got Romo Doonze and Carnell Tate and Christian Watson.
54:15Behind. No, Watson's ahead. Okay. And I've got Marvin Harrison and full PPR ahead also.
54:20And Brian Thomas ahead. Brian Thomas is the same guy.
54:23But I think he'll get more targets. I don't think he's nearly as dependent on his tight end situation as Jamo seems to be.
54:31Interesting. Okay. How about who's next? The Steelers running backs going in the 70s.
54:36I was shocked to see Rico Dowdle going at like the 6-7 turn on CBS.
54:40That seemed I like him better than Jalen Warren.
54:43I think Rico's the better running back to get out of Pittsburgh because I think he'll end up getting more goal line opportunities.
54:51And the dispatches out of camp have been a little bit more positive for Rico than they have been for Warren.
54:57They've kind of classified him as the 1A, Warren as the 1B.
55:01And I'm not so sure that they're going to have defined roles outside of the goal line.
55:07And that means that they could just rotate drives.
55:10Rico gets a drive. Jalen gets a drive. They can both catch the ball out of the backfield.
55:15And so I kind of want to take whoever I can get later.
55:20But if they're both going around the same range, I think I'd rather have Rico.
55:24And on CBS, Rico's going ahead of Warren. If that flips on other sites and other ADP platforms, then I might turn to Jalen.
55:32But it depends on what that cost is going to be.
55:36But do you like either of them in the seventh round?
55:39No. That's the other point to it is that I just think that that's a little bit too rich for either one.
55:46Okay. I guess if they're both staying healthy and they're both involved, it's hard to see either of those guys destroying their ADP.
55:54Unless you guys disagree with that. Right? I mean, they're just going to...
55:58They're both flexes. Yeah. Right. Exactly. Exactly. What are we talking about, Dave?
56:02Do you know what running back they are in ADP?
56:05I can tell you on Fantasy Pros, Jalen Warren's RB27 and Dowdle is RB29.
56:10It's probably about where they are for us. It's probably about what they are on CBS2.
56:15Yeah. I don't have the number for CBS, unfortunately.
56:18Certainly. Cortland Sutton. I can count. You want to give me 30 seconds, I can count.
56:23They're in the same range. They're in... Yes. Cortland Sutton, 76th overall.
56:27Too soon for a guy that might end up being...
56:30He'll be second on the team in targets for Denver, but it might be close between him and now Pat Bryant, who's
56:37starting to etch out a role in this offense.
56:40I still think Jalen Waddle... Jalen Waddle, excuse me.
56:43I still think Jalen Waddle is going to be the top target earner in Denver.
56:48And I think they brought him in for a reason, and I'm still in on Jalen Waddle.
56:53But Sutton's role isn't necessarily going to change, but his target volume will.
56:57And if Pat Bryant and Jalen Waddle end up taking some decent volume away, what's left for Cortland Sutton?
57:03It's going to be six targets per game, and you hope he catches a touchdown.
57:08It's too soon to take him at this point.
57:11And one more, Dallas Goddard. Just another case of ADP being way too high.
57:16Yeah, wild. Dallas Goddard is going... Yeah, he shouldn't...
57:18I don't even know if he should be a top 100 pick.
57:22You agree, Jamie? Yeah, 88th is a little too soon.
57:26Going ahead of Kittle, Kelsey, and likely it's too soon.
57:29You know, so I think Goddard is probably going to...
57:32He's certainly on our site, but I think will establish himself as the number 12 tight end, kind of the mystery tight
57:39end that we've been waiting to find out who that's going to be.
57:43And it makes some sense, especially if Devontae Smith continues to miss practice time.
57:48Kyle Lemon is miss practice time. So Jalen Hurts will probably lean on Goddard as his number two target at worst.
57:54And last year, again, tied for the touchdown lead at the position.
57:58So a lot to like about him. I just don't think you want to reach for him.
58:04It's just interesting that he was the number six tight end per game in PPR last year, number five in the other two formats.
58:11Loses A.J. Brown. We think gets an upgraded offensive coordinator.
58:15We like better the Eagles offense this year, at least in terms of coordinator and line.
58:20And he's, you know, and we don't even think he should be a top 100 pick.
58:25Well, I mean, again, to compare the guys from last year, like Laporta should be better than what he was last year.
58:32Kyle Pitts will hopefully be as good as he was last year.
58:36Isaiah likely should be better than he was last year in his career.
58:40If you believe Harold Shannon is going to do the same things, if not stay in that same range, he's going to be, you know, better as well.
58:49So there's just a lot to like about the position.
58:52I think Dallas guard's fine. And I agree with Dave.
58:55I think like right around pick 100 is OK for him.
58:59But 88 is a little too soon. And again, going as like the eighth tight end of the board, like that's to me just too soon.
59:07OK, Jamie has only one bust on this list that we haven't talked about.
59:12He's got McCaffrey, who's going six or seventh overall.
59:15Jamie's taking him ninth, which you might, how is that about it?
59:19It does make a difference. You know, the first round matters.
59:22Yeah, it does matter. Just a few spots in the first or early in the second.
59:27Devon Achan going 11th overall too soon for Jamie.
59:30Josh Allen, 21st. We already talked about that. Travis Achan, 43rd overall too soon for Jamie.
59:35And then there's Travion Henderson, at least let me see where he's going in fantasy pros.
59:40He's going 60th in CBS. At least I can say that because in fantasy pros, Travion's going 51st.
59:46Where do you think Travion Henderson should go? I mean, by all accounts, I'm getting to a point where I'm going to just put Ramondre ahead of him.
59:55You know, so it's tough because, again, if you were to say same amount of touches, everybody would say I'm taking Travion Henderson.
60:03You saw what Henderson upside was. Henderson's upside was last year in the three games that Ramondre missed.
60:08He had two other games where he was awesome.
60:11In the other 16 games that he played, including the playoffs, he averaged under 7 PPR points per game.
60:17So I think when you look at what Henderson's body of work is probably going to be if Stevenson is healthy, and
60:24you're just hearing reports again, struggling in pass protection, struggling in his route running, struggling this, struggling that.
60:30And then Stevenson's making these highlight plays in the passing game.
60:34That's where Henderson's supposed to win. So I just think that, first off, the ADP is crazy.
60:39You said something earlier this week or Sunday night when we did the show.
60:44If you're looking for running backs with upside that are sort of waiting for an injury, why would you spend the cost
60:51on Henderson when you can get Blake Corum or Kyle Mononga two or three rounds later?
60:56And the production, if given those chances, may still favor Henderson, but could still be similar, especially at the cost difference.
61:03And I don't even think that without the injuries to the starters, I'm not sure there's that much of a difference between Travion Henderson, Blake Corum, Kyle Mononga.
61:12That was my other point. Yeah, it's a great call.
61:15I think just to take him in late round five, early round six, you're just – that's the type of player that you're just hoping for.
61:23Now, again, to go back to what Jake Sealy said yesterday, playing for first, there's only one approach.
61:29You're winning or lose, whatever – however you phrase it.
61:32The Ricky Bobby quote. I think he says, you're not first, you're last.
61:36Losers whine about their best. He's not first. So you could take that approach, and he's got league-winning upside.
61:43I just don't want to take that in round six when I know that there's so many other good players there.
61:49Yeah. And you could do the same swing for the fences upside pick several rounds later with not just Corum and Mononga,
61:56but maybe with Jonathan Brooks and just like anybody who could benefit from an injury.
62:01Well, again, 19.9 points or more in the games that Stevenson missed.
62:05You're not finding that type of upside. Again, Corum is a good comp.
62:09Mononga is a good comp. But like if that's your approach, just take your last three or four picks and go Marshawn
62:16Lloyd and Ray Davis and Seth McGowan and those type of guys because if they get those opportunities, they'll be pretty good.
62:23Brooks doesn't need an injury to ascend to be the top pack.
62:27Trevion does. Also, in the games that both Trevion and Ramondre played together, including the playoffs, 10 goal line carries, eight of
62:34them went to Ramondre Stevenson last year. Yeah. Okay.
62:37I don't really love either of those guys as long as they're both healthy.
62:42I think they're going to take away too much from each other.
62:45Big thank you to Ryan for his donation to St.
62:49Jude for $150. We will set your lineup on the show.
62:52Well, your draft order on the show. We'll do it right now.
62:56All right. Give me a number one through 12 for Amazing Rhino.
63:00Dave. Who are you asking? Dave. Me? Yeah, you guys do.
63:03I got to go. All right. All right. Later, James.
63:07One for Amazing Rhino. Okay. Do you want to do it all or do you want me to pop in there too?
63:14I can do it all if you want. Baker's Land.
63:17Are you randomizing the team names? No, I'm going in order.
63:21Six. NWO. Four. A, B, C, D, E, F, G.
63:2412. Ryan's third account? Eight. Better Call Pierce All.
63:27That's a good one. I don't, I don't, why don't I say the number and then you say the team name?
63:33Because I don't want to be affected by how cool or lame the team name is.
63:38Well, I think, I don't think it's a problem if you are affected by how cool or lame, but okay.
63:45All right. Okay. Uh, TD's McGee. I can't believe I just said that.
63:4911. Oh my gosh. Soar winner. I mean, that is the team name.
63:53Uh, seven. Burr-rested development. Five. Is that a Plexiglo Burris got arrested joke?
63:57That's not cool. Uh, Jeremy's Gambit. Nine. So there's two spots left according to my count.
64:03Mike's Magnificent Team. Three. And Baking the Field. They're two.
64:06Okay. Amazing Rhino is one. Baking the Field is two.
64:09Mike's Magnificent Team, three. Uh, N-O-W is four. A, who's out?
64:13N-O-W? N-W-O. It says N-O-W. It does not. It says N-W-O?
64:16It does. Would it autocorrect for me? Um, N-W-O is four.
64:20Didn't I just read it as N-W-O? Why does it say N-O-W now?
64:24I do not know. Uh, Barrested Development, five. Baker's Land, six.
64:27Soar Winner, seven. Ryan's Third Account, eight. Jeremy's Gambit, nine.
64:31Better Call Pierce Saul, ten. TD's McFly, eleven. Not gonna say that one again.
64:35And ABCD at EFG is twelve. Thanks, everybody, for watching and listening.
64:39We got a mock draft and a mailbag tomorrow.
64:42We'll talk to you then on Fantasy Football Today.
64:45Podcasts.

More episodes from Fantasy Football Today

6