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2026 TE Rankings, Tiers & Strategy! The Ultimate Draft Prep Guide! (07/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 17 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 30, 2026
Published
Thu, July 30, 2026
90
Player insights
36
Players mentioned
Topics
Colston LovelandKyle PittsTrey McBrideGeorge KittleHarold FanninJake FergusonMark AndrewsSam LaPortaTravis KelceBrock BowersDalton KincaidDarren WallerIsaiah LikelyTucker Kraft
Player analysis

Player insights

90

A.J. Brown

NegativeRole51:42

Referenced as a competing target in the Eagles offense alongside Saquon Barkley. The source notes that Goddard has not been extensively evaluated without A.J. Brown, suggesting Brown's presence limits Goddard's target opportunities.

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Bijan Robinson

NegativeUsage43:48

The source raises a strategic question about whether increased target allocation to Kyle Pitts under Kevin Stefanski would come at the expense of Bijan Robinson's volume. Robinson received 103 targets last season in Atlanta, and the source questions whether bumping up Pitts' projection should correspondingly lower Robinson's given the finite target pool.

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NegativeRole63:45

Projected for only 18% target share under Stefanski, a significant concern given his pass-catching ability; the source notes Stefanski's historical reluctance to target running backs (averaging 44 targets per season to his lead back from 2020–2025, with a max of 63 in a single year), which conflicts with Robinson's elite receiving profile and Tua's offensive tendencies.

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Brenton Strange

PositiveUsage49:18

Brenton Strange is identified as one of the two players that Trevor Lawrence will throw the ball to the most, alongside Parker Washington; he is positioned as a top target in the Jaguars offense.

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Brock Bowers

NegativeProjection20:46

The source questions whether Bowers' target dominance could make him an outlier capable of producing 16 fantasy points per game even if the Raiders' offense doesn't meet the typical 251+ passing yards per game threshold that supports elite tight end production.

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NegativeInjury42:11

The source references Brock Bowers as a cautionary example of PCL injury impact, noting that the PCL injury "basically destroyed Brock Bowers last year," using this as context for concern about Kyle Pitts' own PCL injury suffered in mid-2022.

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NegativeValue52:27

Going 21st overall on Fantasy Pros ADP, with early round three pricing on CBS. The source discusses Bowers in the context of ADP review but does not provide a specific stance on his value at that price point in the excerpt provided.

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

PositiveSleeper65:38

Okonkwo is mentioned as a second-tier tight end option with upside, recommended as a streaming option to pair with injured tight ends like Kittle. The source suggests he can provide quality production in the later rounds.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveBreakout3:03

Colston Loveland's rookie season ranked eighth best in total fantasy points for rookie tight ends since 2000, which the source characterizes as great for a rookie tight end despite not being an exceptional overall season; this is part of a historic 2025 tight end class with three of the eight best rookie TE seasons since 2000.

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PositiveProjection3:12

Colston Loveland's rookie season was eighth best since 2000 for a rookie tight end; the source expects year-two improvement because he removes a player from the offense and showed strong performance at the end of last season, with more playing time and opportunities ahead.

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PositiveBreakout6:13

Loveland is ranked 3rd in ADP on CBS and is grouped with the second-tier tight ends the source targets for fair value. He had a breakout season last year (implied strong performance), and the source is interested in acquiring one of the first seven tight ends off the board, with Loveland as a candidate for that tier.

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PositiveValue10:01

One of the top three tight ends in the 2026 draft class; if targeting Colston Loveland, the decision to draft must come in round three, as it is very unlikely he makes it to round four.

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NegativeValue22:15

The source notes Loveland's ADP is firmly in round four in 12-team leagues, though one panelist says he doesn't typically get him there in actual drafts, suggesting potential scarcity or value variance.

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PositiveBreakout29:03

Heath identifies Loveland as the most obvious breakout tight end pick; despite being a tier below Bowers and McBride in consensus rankings, Loveland is on the Bears—arguably the best offense among the top three tight ends. The source projects Loveland, Odunze, and Burden all at 20% target share, meaning if Loveland becomes the number one option in Chicago, he could outperform Bowers and McBride. He loves Loveland in round four, though notes he doesn't typically get him there in actual drafts.

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NegativeProjection31:00

The source projects Loveland for 126 targets (20% target share in Chicago), which exceeds the 119-target threshold typically needed for 15 PPG production. Historical analysis shows 10 of 14 tight ends who averaged 14+ PPG over the last five years averaged 7+ targets per game (119 per season); Loveland's 126-target projection puts him in that range, though the source notes George Kittle and Tucker Craft have exceeded 14 PPG with fewer targets.

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PositiveBreakout46:42

Loveland is being considered to potentially move ahead of Trey McBride as a top-two tight end, pending training camp highlights; the source indicates Loveland does the same things as McBride in the offense, suggesting similar upside with potentially lower draft capital.

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PositiveBreakout65:00

The source is considering moving Loveland ahead of Trey McBride in tight end rankings pending training camp highlights; currently ranked as a top-two tight end candidate, with the source noting willingness to elevate him further if camp performance warrants it.

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Dallas Goedert

PositiveSleeper48:48

Goedert is mentioned as a round 10-11 ADP tight end with late-round sleeper potential to become a top-five tight end, fitting the historical pattern that 38% of top-five PPR tight ends over the last decade were drafted in round 10 or later.

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Dalton Kincaid

PositiveSleeper48:48

Kincaid is identified as one of three tight ends who could qualify as a late-round sleeper (round 10-11 ADP) with potential to become a top-five tight end; the source still thinks he's a really good player despite his draft position.

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PositiveSleeper70:12

Kincaid is in the sleeper discussion with top-15 upside. The source notes his knee problem appears resolved with no reported setbacks, unlike last year. Secondary metrics support a step forward; he could be second on the team in targets behind DJ Moore and could serve as the Bills' touchdown guy. The source prefers him over Dolchets due to his track record and quarterback situation.

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NegativeProjection72:18

Kincaid has never had more than five green-zone or end-zone targets in a season (career high four), yet has been touchdown-dependent for fantasy success. He has only seven career games with double-digit PPR points and no touchdowns in 41 games played, indicating he must score to provide weekly value.

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Dalton Schultz

PositiveBust49:28

Schultz is mentioned as potentially the worst tight end that will get 100 targets this season, suggesting he may underperform relative to his target volume.

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NegativeRole49:49

Mentioned as a possible alternative tight end who receives approximately 100 targets annually from Dak Prescott, similar to Jake Ferguson. The source presents Schultz as one of two candidates for Dak's primary tight end target allocation.

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Darren Waller

NegativeValue10:51

Goddard is mentioned as part of the group of 10-11 tight ends that could comprise the top tier depending on injury returns and market negativity; could creep into the top 10 if there is too much negativity on the returns of Kraft and Kittle; also identified as a late-round target the source is comfortable waiting for.

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PositiveSleeper23:24

Dave identifies Okonkwo as a sleeper tight end (ranked 12th by the source); the source notes that if Okonkwo is replacing Zach Ertz in the Washington offense and the team doesn't add Brandon Aiyuk or Stefan Diggs, he could finish first or second on his team in targets. Last year he averaged 4.7 targets per game in Tennessee and 7+ PPR points per game; if he gets north of 6 targets per game in Washington, he could extrapolate to 9-10 PPR points per game. Ertz had a 17.2% target-per-route-run rate with Jade Daniels and averaged 10.4 PPR points per game; Okonkwo has 16 career games with 6+ targets and averaged 11.7 PPR points in those games, suggesting he's a low-end starter if given the opportunity.

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NegativeRole42:34

The source uses Darren Waller as a comparison point for how Kyle Pitts could potentially be utilized in Atlanta. The source notes that Waller was productive in three of five games with Tua Tagovailoa on the Dolphins, and that Waller was used in short dink targets similar to how Pitts could be deployed, though the source emphasizes "we don't know for sure" if Atlanta will employ this strategy.

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David Njoku

NegativeMatchup5:15

David Njoku's historical performance with Deshaun Watson shows a significant drop in fantasy production: he averaged 1.9 more fantasy points without Watson in year one, 6 more without Watson in year two, and 7.8 more without Watson in year three. The source uses this as evidence that Watson does not target tight ends heavily, with context that other quarterbacks (Flacco, Jameis) threw more passes overall.

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NegativeValue10:51

Okonkwo is mentioned as part of the group of 10-11 tight ends that could comprise the top tier depending on injury returns and market negativity; could creep into the top 10 if there is too much negativity on the returns of Kraft and Kittle; also identified as a late-round target the source is comfortable waiting for.

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Deon Jackson

PositiveSleeper24:00

The source notes that there are at least three good sleeper tight ends available (Okonkwo, Goddard, Dulcich), and suggests that if forced, the panel could name three other sleepers to fill that role, indicating the viability of taking a second tight end in drafts.

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Drake London

PositiveValue40:59

The source expresses preference for Drake London over Kyle Pitts in Atlanta, arguing that London will receive the easy targets in the Falcons offense. The source states "I'll bet on London all day long. I think those easy targets will be there," positioning London as the safer target in the Kevin Stefanski system despite the presence of other wide receivers generating buzz in Atlanta.

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NegativeRole63:45

Projected for 28% target share in Stefanski's offense; the source includes this as part of a broader discussion of how Stefanski's arrival may redistribute targets among Falcons skill players, though London's role is presented factually without explicit upside or downside framing.

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George Kittle

PositiveRole2:00

The source expects George Kittle to be healthy and productive, positioning him as part of the older generation of elite tight ends still contributing at a high level alongside younger prospects.

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NegativeInjury9:00

Kittle's injury status is uncertain; the source suggests he may miss time early in the season. If Kittle misses time, Jake Tonjes becomes a viable zero-tight-end strategy option, with the plan to pivot to another waiver-wire tight end once Kittle returns.

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NegativeInjury9:20

Kittle's injury status is uncertain; the source suggests potential absence that could impact tight end strategy and elevate other 49ers tight ends like Tonjes; if Kittle falls in the draft, he is a late-round option the source would consider.

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NegativeInjury65:38

Kittle is recovering from a torn Achilles at age 33. The source expresses concern about his ramp-up period: even if he returns for week one, he may be slow to get going, and the worst-case scenario is he misses the season or returns late. The primary fear is roster construction risk—if he comes off the PUP list but underperforms, managers must carry a second tight end without an IR spot.

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NegativeValue65:38

Round eight is a reasonable value for Kittle if he starts the season on the PUP list, allowing managers to stash him in an IR spot and stream a replacement tight end (like Chigoziem Okonkwo) through the first two months. His ADP will jump once he comes off the PUP list, likely in the second week of August or later, depending on draft timing.

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Greg Dulcich

PositiveSleeper23:24

Heath identifies Dulcich as his favorite sleeper tight end; double-digit round tight ends who turn into top-six or top-eight finishers almost always finish first or second on their team in targets. The Dolphins lack a proven WR1 or WR2, and Dulcich was second among tight ends in yards per route run last year on a small sample. He's still young and has been good in yards after catch (YAC). At minicamp, Dulcich was getting targeted a lot and moving around the formation; Malik Willis has a history of not throwing to running backs but does have a decent history with tight ends.

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Harold Fannin

PositiveBreakout3:03

Harold Fannin had the fourth most fantasy points ever for a rookie tight end since 2000; the source cites his exceptional rookie season as evidence of a strong 2025 tight end class.

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PositiveProjection5:21

Harold Fannin's year-two outlook is contingent on the quarterback situation; if Deshaun Watson wins the starting job, the source expects a bad month or more until Watson is benched, citing Watson's poor target volume to tight ends historically. The source would be back in on Fannin if Shedeur Sanders wins the job instead.

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PositiveBreakout6:13

Fannin is ranked 3-4-5 in ADP on Fantasy Pros but 8th on CBS, indicating some variance in market valuation. He had a breakout season last year and is grouped with second-tier tight ends the source targets for fair value. The source is interested in acquiring one of the first seven tight ends off the board, with Fannin as a candidate.

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NegativeBust38:24

Jamie identifies Fannin as a bust; while he was awesome last year and led the team in targets with one of the best tight end coaches in NFL history, he loses that coach and gets a quarterback (Watson) that doesn't throw to tight ends as much. The Cardinals add two rookie wide receivers (first-round Casey Concepcion, second-round Denzel Boston), improving the receiving core significantly. Jamie expects Fannin to take a step backwards and doesn't want to draft him where he'll likely go (closer to tight end six than tight end eight). He doesn't think Fannin will be outside the top 12 barring disaster, but the ADP is too high.

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Isaac Nauta

NegativeRole64:00

Isaac Nauta's increased involvement in the Detroit offense could steal touchdowns and opportunities from Laporta and other pass catchers. The source identifies him as a 'talented player that can maybe throw another wrinkle into this Detroit offense and a problem for some of the guys that we love,' raising concern about target and red-zone opportunity distribution.

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Isaiah Likely

PositiveBreakout25:48

Dave identifies Isaiah Likely as a breakout candidate as the number-two target getter in New York; even with Malik Nabers ready to start the season, there will be enough targets for Likely to average around 6 per game—something he didn't have the opportunity to do in Baltimore. Likely has an elite athletic profile and is a mismatch problem; Matt Nagy has a history of leaning on his tight end (Travis Kelsey in Kansas City, Trey Burton in Chicago). Jackson Dart had a 22.8% target rate to tight ends last year, which is below average and could increase. Likely has 9 career games with 6+ targets, averaging 12.5 PPR points in 8 of 9 and 14.8 in 6 of 9. He's going around pick 100 overall, which Dave calls a steal.

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NegativeRole52:12

The source references Likely as a competing tight end in the Ravens offense alongside Mark Andrews. When discussing Andrews' recent performance, the source notes that week one was one of the few recent games where Andrews played without Likely, suggesting Likely is a regular target competitor.

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PositiveBreakout68:30

Likely's situation has improved significantly with Mark Andrews' departure. The source argues the market is undervaluing him due to past disappointments, but notes 'the roadblock is gone' and 'the situation has changed much more so for likely than it has for pits.' The source prefers Likely over Travis Kelce and George Kittle, suggesting top-12 upside.

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Jake Ferguson

NegativeValue49:28

Ferguson is going too early in drafts, ahead of Goedert, Andrews, and Kincaid; the source projects him at 99 targets (just shy of 100) and questions whether he's the worst tight end that will get 100 targets this season. He averaged 8.7 PPG in 13 games with CeeDee Lamb but 18.6 PPG without him.

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PositiveProjection49:45

Projected at 99 targets; averaged 8.7 PPR points per game in 13 games with CeeDee Lamb present, but 18.6 PPR points per game in four games without Lamb. Five of his 11 end zone targets came in those four Lamb-absent games. The source notes Ferguson's splits mirror Kyle Pitts–Drake London splits, suggesting significant upside if Lamb is unavailable.

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PositiveRole50:18

Finished as the number five tight end in fantasy last year. The source projects he will receive approximately 100 targets annually from Dak Prescott, consistent with Prescott's historical tight end target allocation. Could be a top-five tight end if either Lamb or Pickens is injured.

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NegativeProjection50:50

Could emerge as a touchdown-dependent tight end this year, catching seven or eight touchdowns without high target volume, creeping into the top 12 range. The source acknowledges this is not an exciting archetype but remains possible.

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Jake Tonges

PositiveSleeper9:00

Tonjes is a late-round sleeper option if George Kittle misses time. He scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in four of the first six games without Kittle, though his last three games were inconsistent (19, 2.4, 8.9 PPR points). The source suggests Tonjes as a zero-tight-end strategy option early in the season, with the plan to pivot to another waiver-wire tight end once Kittle returns.

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PositiveRole9:20

With San Francisco receiver injuries (Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk out) and potential Kittle absence, Tonjes is positioned in a great spot for increased offensive role and target opportunity.

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Jameson Williams

NegativeRole62:30

Target distribution between Laporta and Williams is contested. In 2024's first 11 games, Williams likely had more targets than Laporta; in the final six games, Laporta out-targeted Williams. The source notes that after the bye week in 2025, Williams became more involved even before Laporta's injury, suggesting they will have similar target shares going forward. Both are expected to be 'really good' with their opportunities.

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Jared Goff

NegativeValue11:57

Likely is positioned as a late-round tight end option the source is comfortable with; if forced to settle in round 10 or later, Likely, Kelsey, or Goddard are acceptable targets.

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Jonnu Smith

NegativeProjection43:03

The source cites Jonnu Smith's 13.1 PPR points two years ago with Tua Tagovailoa as a historical reference point when discussing tight end performance in the Dolphins offense, using this as context for understanding how tight ends have performed with specific quarterbacks.

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Juwan Johnson

NegativeBust8:21

Johnson is listed as a late-round tight end the source is not interested in starting, though the source notes he deserves another try. He is grouped with other bench-only options like Chigo Conquo, Greg Dulcich, and Dalton Kincaid. The source mentions Johnson did something notable last year (implied strong performance) but is not prioritizing him in draft strategy.

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Kyle Pitts

NegativeValue10:30

Pitts is positioned in the tier of tight ends (alongside Kraft and Fannin) where the source considers pulling the trigger in the mid-rounds as the drop-off from the top three becomes apparent; part of a group of 10-11 tight ends that could comprise the top tier depending on injury returns.

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NegativeBust39:48

Dave identifies Kyle Pitts as a bust; Pitts has been in the league five years and has not met expectations once, except last year in five games without Drake London when he was a monster (8.8 targets per game, 19 PPR points per game). However, in 12 games with Drake London, he averaged only 9.6 PPR points per game on 6.2 targets per game—almost as many targets as Bijan Robinson had last year. Dave is betting against Pitts despite Kevin Stefanski's reputation as a tight end wizard, citing Pitts' consistent underperformance. Additionally, the quarterbacks in Atlanta aren't great throwers, and Dave prefers Drake London for the easy targets.

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PositiveBust40:29

The source expresses skepticism that Kevin Stefanski can elevate Pitts to top-five tight end status, citing five years of underperformance despite recent buzz. While Pitts posted a 1,000-yard rookie season (9.3 yards per target) and had five strong games including one monster performance against Tampa, the source bets against a Kelce-like transformation given Pitts' injury history (PCL injury in 2022, which "basically destroyed Brock Bowers last year") and the quarterback situation in Atlanta. The source notes Pitts is currently TE6 at ADP ~70, not a top-five pick, and argues that despite Stefanski's track record of targeting tight ends heavily (166-169 targets per season in Cleveland), the Falcons' investment in Pitts' contract does not guarantee increased tight end volume given Drake London and other receivers competing for targets.

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NegativeRole50:09

Used as a comparison point for Jake Ferguson's production splits. The source notes that Ferguson's target and touchdown distribution with and without CeeDee Lamb mirrors the Pitts–Drake London split pattern in the Falcons offense, illustrating how Ferguson's role expands when Lamb is unavailable.

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PositiveRole63:45

Expected to command 22% target share in Stefanski's offense, up from previous seasons; the source frames this as a meaningful increase tied to the coaching change and Stefanski's tendency to target tight ends instead of running backs.

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PositiveProjection63:45

Projected for 93 catches, 1,045 yards, and six touchdowns under Stefanski; the source notes six touchdowns would represent a career year for Pitts, reflecting optimism about the coaching change's impact on his target volume and efficiency.

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PositiveValue68:30

Pitts is in the source's top 10 tight ends despite disagreeing with his ADP. The source notes both Pitts and Likely are in better situations now than they were last year, and Pitts remains a number-one tight end option.

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Logan Thomas

NegativeValue10:51

Ferguson is mentioned as part of the group of 10-11 tight ends that could comprise the top tier depending on injury returns and market negativity; could creep into the top 10 if there is too much negativity on the returns of Kraft and Kittle.

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Mark Andrews

NegativeValue11:52

The source identifies Andrews as the 12th tight end option and explicitly states 'I don't really want to go there,' indicating reluctance to draft Andrews at his current ADP despite having 11 other tight ends ranked ahead of him.

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PositiveSleeper48:48

Andrews is mentioned as a round 10-11 ADP tight end with late-round sleeper potential to become a top-five tight end, fitting the historical pattern that 38% of top-five PPR tight ends over the last decade were drafted in round 10 or later.

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NegativeRole51:06

Has slowed athletically compared to his elite-athlete peak at the position. Received only 69–70 targets in each of the past two seasons despite playing every game, which the source characterizes as very low. Not projected as a top-12 tight end.

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PositiveProjection51:30

Despite low target volume and reduced athleticism, the source would not be surprised if Andrews scores 12 touchdowns this year. He remains heavily involved in red zone, green zone, and end zone situations; Lamar Jackson favors him in these areas. New tight end coach Declan Doyle (who came up as a tight end coach) may increase overall tight end usage in the offense.

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Marvin Harrison Jr.

NegativeRole46:42

Harrison Jr. has dominated end zone targets for the second straight year, capturing six of McBride's 18 end zone targets when on the field last year; training camp reports indicate it hasn't been a good camp so far for Harrison Jr., which could affect his red zone role.

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Parker Washington

PositiveUsage49:18

Parker Washington is identified as one of the two players that Trevor Lawrence will throw the ball to the most, alongside Brenton Strange; Liam Cohen praised Washington, indicating he's a top target for the Jaguars offense.

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Rashee Rice

PositiveRole67:00

Rice is expected to take over red-zone and end-zone targets from Travis Kelce. The source identifies Rice as the likely recipient of Kelce's former touchdown opportunities, positioning him as a threat to Kelce's upside.

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Sam LaPorta

PositiveProjection60:24

Laporta's career averages exceed Trey McBride's career highs across key efficiency metrics: 8.3 yards per target (vs. McBride's 7.8 career high), 7.9% touchdown rate (vs. McBride's 6.5% career high), and 2.05 fantasy points per target (vs. McBride's 1.87 best). If Laporta receives McBride's volume, he projects as tight end one; even with Amon-Ra St. Brown present, he could see 120 targets (his rookie volume when he finished TE1).

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NegativeValue60:24

Round six is an early pick for Laporta; the key question is whether new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will feature him like he did Trey McBride in Arizona, or whether the presence of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams will limit his role. The source believes the market is drafting him appropriately as a middle-of-the-top-10 tight end (5–8 range), comparable to Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet, and Tucker Kraft.

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NegativeRole60:46

Laporta was better than all rookie tight ends last year and in his rookie season, outperforming Brock Bowers, Tatum Musselman, and Jared Smock in fantasy points per game despite receiving only 5.4 targets per game. His rookie year featured Jameson Williams as a non-factor, and the source frames target competition with Williams as a false concern: when Laporta is on the field, Williams must adjust, not vice versa.

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NegativeProjection61:35

Laporta has been touchdown-dependent and inconsistent: TE1 in his rookie year due to 10 touchdowns, then TE16 in the first 11 games of 2024 before resurgence in the final six games. The source notes he has 'so many nothing weeks' and expresses concern about his volatility. Detroit's defense ranked 23rd, 7th, and 22nd in the last three years; when ranked 7th, the team was 16th in pass attempts per game, limiting volume.

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Saquon Barkley

NegativeRole51:42

Referenced as a competing target in the Eagles offense alongside A.J. Brown. The source discusses Goddard's target ceiling in the context of competing with both Brown and Barkley for touches.

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Travis Kelce

PositiveRole2:00

The source expects Travis Kelce to remain productive, positioning him as part of the older generation of elite tight ends still contributing at a high level alongside younger prospects.

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NegativeValue11:57

Kelce is positioned as a late-round tight end option the source is comfortable with; if forced to settle in round 10 or later, Likely, Kelsey, or Goddard are acceptable targets; in a recent draft, Kelce was the last starter-caliber tight end available when it came to the source's turn.

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PositiveProjection67:00

Kelce finished TE6 per game last year with Patrick Mahomes healthy, but his 18.8% target per route run rate is a career low. He no longer gets targeted in the end zone despite still running those routes; the source expects Rasheed Rice to claim that red-zone work. At 37 years old in October, the source does not expect his target per route run rate to improve, limiting upside.

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PositiveProjection67:00

Kelce was 'really good last year for fantasy' when Patrick Mahomes was healthy, finishing TE6 per game. The source acknowledges his strong performance despite the target rate decline and red-zone concerns.

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Trey McBride

NegativeProjection6:13

McBride just had one of the greatest tight end seasons ever, but the source expects regression; historically, tight ends who post all-time great rookie seasons do not maintain that production the following year. McBride is ranked 3-4-5 in ADP on Fantasy Pros and 3rd on CBS, but the source advises against reaching for him unless in tight end premium scoring or with a scoring advantage.

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NegativeProjection20:18

The source notes McBride as one of the top-tier tight ends averaging 16 points per game, requiring an offense with 251+ passing yards per game and 28+ touchdown passes to justify his draft position; the question is whether the Cardinals' offense can support that level of production, or if McBride's target dominance makes him an outlier.

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NegativeRole46:42

McBride is ranked as a top two tight end by the source, though the source hasn't been brave enough to move Colston Loveland ahead of him yet; both players do similar things in the Cardinals offense, making McBride a tough player to pass on despite compelling cases for potential regression.

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PositiveProjection46:42

McBride is on pace for 159 targets over his last 43 games, which is about what Drew Brees and Kevin Stavreski average per year; he led the NFL with 18 end zone targets last year. However, when Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the field, McBride only had six end zone targets, suggesting touchdown upside may be capped by Harrison's red zone dominance.

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PositiveValue52:25

Going 20th overall on Fantasy Pros ADP. The source is comfortable with McBride at 20th, despite acknowledging he may not match prior touchdown or target volume. McBride averaged 19 PPR points per game last year, ranking 11th among all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points per game.

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PositiveBust65:00

Despite finishing third in yards per route run last season, McBride ranked 11th in fantasy points per target, 12th in yards per target, 15th in explosives per target, and 16th in yards after catch per reception; the source attributes his elite fantasy finish to running 122 more routes than any other tight end (roughly two additional games' worth) and notes that quarterback downgrade (Brissett likely declining, Carson Beck entering for a third of the season) and the ascension of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson will reduce his touchdown upside, making him unlikely to repeat his 2025 performance despite remaining a top-two tight end.

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Tucker Kraft

PositiveBreakout25:48

Jamie identifies Tucker Kraft as his favorite breakout tight end, noting he was on his way to doing it last year before injury. Kraft was averaging just shy of 6 targets per game and had 6 touchdowns in 8 games played. The Packers lose 131 targets from Romeo Doubs and Don Tavenwix departing, creating opportunity for Kraft. If healthy and given a full season, his 17-game pace (excluding week 9 when he tore his ACL) is 100 targets, 73 catches, 1,139 yards, 15 touchdowns. Kraft is an elite yards-after-catch (YAC) tight end with 9.1 career YAC, the most since true media started tracking with a minimum of 50 targets.

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PositiveProjection65:02

Kraft was on pace to finish as TE3 last season before a torn ACL ended his year. The source states 'that's how good it was last season' and expresses excitement about his upside. With Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, and Matthew Golden in the receiving corps, the 'runway is clear' for Kraft to produce at an elite level.

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PositiveValue65:02

Round seven is a good value for Kraft given his TE3-caliber production trajectory before injury. The source prefers Kraft over Laporta in round seven, citing the clear receiving corps and the play caller's history of featuring tight ends.

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Tyler Warren

PositiveBreakout3:03

Tyler Warren had the third most fantasy points ever for a rookie tight end since 2000; the source highlights his exceptional rookie season as part of a broader trend of elite rookie tight end production in 2025.

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PositiveProjection3:15

Tyler Warren had the third most fantasy points ever for a rookie tight end since 2000; the source notes he removes a player from the offense and gets quarterback Daniel Jones back at 100%, which could support continued or improved production in year two.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

968
0:00This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!
0:03Can you believe this? He had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
0:08Off to the races! And he stays on his feet!
0:11He's just gonna go the distance! Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
0:15It of course is the year of the tight end.
0:18Right? And oh, haha, always optimism this time of year.
0:21But this time, we think we kind of might mean it.
0:25There are a lot of reasons to feel good about the tight end position this year.
0:29How about this? 18 tight ends averaged 10 or more fantasy points per game in PPR last year.
0:35That was last year. That was the most in at least 12 seasons.
0:39And then there's those sophomore tight ends that we're pumped about.
0:42They are tight ends 3, 4 and 5 in Fantasy Pros PPR ADP.
0:46And we have high hopes for sophomore tight ends, which unfortunately has burned us in the past.
0:51But you know what? This year is going to be different.
0:54Heath, welcome back. It's the year of the tight end, right?
0:57It is the year of the tight end. Could not be more excited about this position.
1:02There's no way they let us down. Dave, fire it up.
1:05It's the year of some tight ends. Let's not go crazy.
1:08It's not like there's 14 or 15 tight ends that we can look at and say, oh yeah, superstars.
1:14Everybody's going to have a good tight end. So you might as well go after a great one.
1:19It's not like that. But the influx of last year's tight ends make it a little bit deeper and certainly more exciting.
1:26And I don't know the last time we had, what, six tight ends that are going to get taken in the first six rounds or so.
1:34It's been a while since we've been able to say that.
1:37So some of the tight ends, yeah, it's their year.
1:40It's their time. But it's not like everybody's going to be rostering a tight end that gets you 12 PPR points per game.
1:47Jamie, how are you feeling about the position this year?
1:50I feel good. I mean, it's, you know, it's fun to see these guys, this, this young group of tight ends that
1:56we got last year, you know, hopefully populating the position for several years to come and producing at a high level and
2:03then still getting, hopefully, you know, a healthy George Kittle and a productive Travis Kelsey.
2:07So you got both ends of the spectrum here of, you know, some guys that are still producing at an older age
2:14and some young players that can, you know, hopefully make a difference again for the future.
2:18All right. I want to talk about just a few reasons why we're optimistic about the position and let's look at the year two tight ends.
2:26Well, first of all, I already told you we had 18 tight ends average double digit PPR fantasy points last year, the most in at least 12 seasons.
2:34But also tight ends are just being targeted more.
2:37This is a massively important trend in the NFL.
2:4023.8% target rate in 2025. That's the highest target rate for tight ends in at least 20 seasons.
2:45And that tight end target rate has increased or stayed the same seven straight years.
2:50I mean, it's almost hard for me to think it could get even higher than 23.8%.
2:54But the bottom line is whether that happens or not, tight ends are a bigger part of offenses than they used to be.
3:01And then three of the eight best rookie tight end seasons since 2000 came last year.
3:06Tyler, just in terms of total fantasy points, Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin and Colston Loveland's rookie season, which wasn't even that great,
3:12but it was great for a rookie tight end, was eighth best since 2000.
3:17So look at this list here. If you're watching on YouTube, you see Tyler Warren had the third most fantasy points ever for a rookie since 2000.
3:25Fannin fourth, Loveland eighth. And then you look to the right.
3:28How did those guys do? How did the top 10 guys do the next year?
3:32Most of them were worse. Bowers was worse. He lost a fantasy point per game.
3:37Sam Laporta lost three fantasy points per game. Kyle Pitts lost almost three fantasy points per game.
3:42Evan Ingram, slightly worse. Jeremy Schocki was better, but he got hurt.
3:45He played six fewer games. Gronkowski was amazing. Pat Fryermuth a little bit worse.
3:50So we are putting a lot of stock, Jamie, into these year two tight ends, as you talked about.
3:55We have, unfortunately, these trends. And there's all these situations and scenarios and circumstances and reasons why that year two tight ends have slumped.
4:02But we do have to acknowledge your two tight ends have not necessarily been great picks.
4:07Why is this year going to be different? Well, I think for two of them, it could be the same or potentially
4:14better in the case of Loveland just because of more playing time and more opportunities.
4:18Fan is the one that makes me nervous just because, you know, there's so much change going on for him compared to what happened last year.
4:26You know, so Warren, you remove a player and you get a quarterback hopefully back at 100% in Daniel Jones.
4:32Loveland, again, you remove a player and you saw what he did at the end of last season.
4:37And then for Fanon, it's a quarterback change that I think is a problem for him, at least potentially.
4:43You have a dramatically improved on paper receiving core that is going to be a problem for him.
4:48And you have a coaching change that could potentially be a problem for him.
4:52And so the last one is probably the one that concerns me the least.
4:56The other two concern me the most. You know, so does he continue to lead the team in targets?
5:02Does he continue to get quality opportunities or at least the volume of opportunities?
5:06Because if it's Deshaun Watson, which is probably the way that it's heading, at least to start the season, like that's bad for Fanon.
5:13So I still think he's worth drafting as a starter.
5:16I just don't think you should expect anything close to what you got last year.
5:21Yeah, Deshaun Watson. If you look at David Njoku, three seasons he played with Deshaun Watson.
5:25He averaged 1.9 more fantasy points without him the first year, six more fantasy points without Watson the next year, and 7.8
5:32more fantasy points without Watson the third year. It was really bad.
5:35There's always context. You know, you had like Flacco throwing a bunch of passes.
5:40You had Jameis throwing a bunch of passes. So he was always going to be better in those scenarios.
5:45But Watson just didn't target tight ends that much.
5:48Heath, your thoughts, because I know you loved Fanon last year, and I don't know how you feel about him this year
5:54per se, but your thoughts on the year two slump that we've seen from several of those tight ends.
6:00I was very excited to see that Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions yesterday, and I hope he throws five interceptions today.
6:06And I hope Shador Sanders wins the job, because I think he's currently a better quarterback, and there's at least hope with him.
6:13And then I'll be back in on Harold Fanon.
6:16If Deshaun Watson wins the job, then I think you're going to have a bad probably month until they bench Deshaun Watson
6:22and give the job to Shador Sanders. But no, I think it makes sense that the guys who have had the greatest
6:29rookie tight end seasons ever have had a hard time maintaining that production.
6:33That is kind of something we talk about a lot.
6:36I'm going to talk about Trey McBride in just a moment.
6:39He just had one of the greatest tight end seasons ever, period.
6:42I don't think he's going to be as good as he was last year.
6:47That's generally what happened when you do something all-time great, is the next season's not as good.
6:52Yeah, but Bowers got hurt. Laporta started his second campaign with an injury, and Jamison Williams was more involved.
6:57Kyle Pitts was hurt and had a horrible offense.
7:00We're hoping better circumstances here for the three. Like I said, they're 3-4-5 in ADP on Fantasy Pros, but on CBS, Loveland's 3, Warren's 4, Fannin is 8th.
7:08So on CBS ADP, we don't like Fannin quite as much.
7:11All right, Dave, let's start with tight end strategy here.
7:14We'll do sleepers, breakouts, busts early on in the show as well.
7:18We'll talk about when to take McBride and Bowers.
7:21But what's your overall tight end strategy this year?
7:23I'm looking for a little bit of value from the elite tier guys.
7:27I don't want to reach for McBride or Bowers unless it's tight end premium or some sort of scoring advantage that helps those two tight ends along.
7:35And if I do get one of them, I'm trying to get the second one of those two.
7:41So when I see, you know, Bowers is usually going off the board first.
7:45So if he's off the board first, I would put the radar up for McBride.
7:49But McBride's probably going to go within five picks of Bowers.
7:52And if I'm far away from that, say I'm picking late in round one, early round two, no chance I'm going to
7:59get either of those guys when I'm up in late round three.
8:02Once those two guys are gone, I'm looking for fair value from those other second tier, let's call them, tight ends.
8:09I'm not even really thinking about the late round tight ends unless it's just a guy that I think is a blue
8:15chip player that might be able to do what Jawan Johnson did last year or frankly do what Colson Loveland did and Harold Fannin did.
8:23Last year. So I'm looking for one of the first, let's call it seven tight ends off the board, meaning that I
8:29am going to focus one of my first six picks or so on a tight end.
8:34Who are you referring to when you say late round tight ends that you're not really thinking about when you start your draft?
8:41Guys that I'm just going to put on my bench, not interested in starting Chigo Conquo, Greg Dulcich, Dalton Kincaid, Jawan Johnson.
8:47I think he deserves another try at this. Kenyon Sadiq.
8:50If Kittle doesn't come back anytime soon, then Jake Tonjes would be one of those guys that you can pick up and
8:57go a little zero tight end with and use him for the beginning of the year.
9:01And then once Kittle's back, you'll find another tight end off the waiver wire.
9:06Jake Tonjes. Jake Tonjes. Let's see. He scored double digit fantasy points in PPR in four of the first six games without Kittle.
9:12And then in the last three scored 19, 2.4 and 8.9.
9:16So he's pretty good. If Kittle misses time, you can think about Jake Tonjes.
9:202.4 kind of sucks. Yeah. But that was against Seattle.
9:23And that was Philadelphia. Sorry. Philadelphia. In the division.
9:25You also have two receiver injuries for San Francisco now, too.
9:29We sure do. We will talk about Ricky Pearsall a little bit later.
9:33Christian Kirk's also bank. Are you suggesting that the 49ers move in the direction of multiple tight ends from week to week?
9:39No, no. I'm saying if Kittle's out on top of that, like Tonjes is in a great spot.
9:44Jamie, what's your tight end strategy? I mean, it's not far off from Dave's.
9:49I think, you know, if you're in on Bowers or McBride, like you have to make the decision probably middle to the
9:55end of round two, depending on your draft slot.
9:58It's very unlikely you're going to get them in round three.
10:01I think if you're in on Colston Lovelland, you're probably going to have to pull the trigger in round three.
10:07It's very unlikely he makes it to round four.
10:10So really, when you look at the top three guys, I think that's going to be the group of them.
10:16And then it comes down to at what point you start to value the tight end by comparison to everybody else, to
10:22every other player, you know, or every other position that you're looking at.
10:26So it's kind of, you know, the same thing like quarterback, you know.
10:30So once you get to that spot where you start to see the drop off and then you're like, okay, I like
10:36Pitts or Kraft or Fannin, you know, there or, you know, I want to pull the trigger maybe early on likely or
10:43wait out Kelsey or Kittle, you know, you're going to see the whatever order, the 10 to 11 tight ends are going to be the same.
10:51You know, unless there's too much negativity on the returns of Kraft and Kittle, then maybe it's Andrews, Goddard, Okonkwo, Ferguson, you
10:57know, one of those guys that creeps into the top 10.
11:00But I think it's just a matter of, you know what it is.
11:04It's easy to tier this position. You know, it's easier than quarterback because quarterback, you kind of get that jumbled group.
11:10You talked about that yesterday, Adam, you know, Stafford, Purdy, all those guys.
11:14Yeah. That, you know, once you get to that part of the draft, but I think, you know, if you have your
11:21favorite late round targets, you know, so like for me, it's Okonkwo and Goddard.
11:25If I know that I can just wait out those two in particular, and I just missed and missed and missed because somebody else was taking them.
11:33I'll reference the draft we did last week where I just kept watching the board.
11:37And then it was me and you were the last two.
11:41Me and Adam were the last two to draft a tight end.
11:44And I knew where we were on the board.
11:47And Kelsey was the last guy that was, you know, I think that we both were interested as a starter.
11:53And so I was like, okay, I know like when it gets to me, if it gets past me and Adam's up, he's going to take Kelsey.
12:01I have to take Kelsey now. But that was kind of just wait, wait, wait, and got somebody that I'm still comfortable with.
12:08Yeah. I do wait a lot. I have 11 guys that I'm comfortable with as my starting tight end.
12:13The 12th would be Mark Andrews, but I don't really want to go there.
12:17But the last of the group would be, you know, Kittle if he falls, but then it's likely Kelsey and Goddard.
12:24I'm like, okay, whatever. If I'm in round 10 or something like that, and I have to settle for likely Kelsey or Goddard, I'm cool with it.
12:32So yeah, go ahead. I was just going to ask you, did you actually take a little bit of time to look
12:38through the tight end rankings list and start picking out the names of guys that weren't top six or top seven that
12:45you'd say, okay, yeah, I'd be cool with these guys as my starting tight end.
12:49And you look at pits and you go, you might've said, yeah, of course I'm fine with him as a starter.
12:55And same thing with Kittle and so on. Did you go through that process?
13:00It doesn't sound like a long process, but did you do it?
13:03No, not really. I mean, I think I have 11 guys that I'm comfortable with.
13:08And when I feel like the value is right for any of them, I'll, I'll take them.
13:13If I feel like, all right, yeah, I kind of want to.
13:16So you, you said, uh, Goddard. Kelsey. No, Andrew's would be 12 for me, but.
13:21So who's, who's out of the top 11 then?
13:23Well, who am I missing here? Yeah. Your top 11, Jamie is Bowers McBride, Loveland Warren, Laporta, Kraft, Pitts, Fannin, likely Kelsey Kittle.
13:30Oh God. Okay. It's 12 then. I'm sorry. That's what I was getting at.
13:3412. My bad. I think there's, I think there's 11 like locked in, you know what, again, whatever order, I think there's just 11 locked in.
13:42Okay. I'm sorry. But I, I do think that every manager should take the time to make sure that they've, they know their number, whether it's 11.
13:50Some of them might say eight. I don't know.
13:53People might not be as in on, um, Kelsey or like, no, I totally agree.
13:57But I think just based on ADP, like we're going to see 11 guys in whatever order.
14:02Sure. I agree with that for sure. But if your number is like eight or lower, you're prioritizing tight end.
14:08Sure. I'm going to get Heath's thoughts now. I'm sorry.
14:11My number is 12, which is obviously pretty significant with most of us playing 12 team leagues, not 11.
14:17Mine's eight. Heath, by the way, welcome back. Hey, thanks.
14:20You know what they say. The Heath is on baby.
14:23Welcome back. All right. Fantastic. Fantastic. Soundbite. Can't wait to get your, um, your tight end strategy, but we do have to take a break.
14:30So when we come back, Heath is going to have an extra 30 seconds here to think about his tight end strategy
14:37and, how many you're comfortable with as your starter.
14:39We'll be right back. Go for it. Heath. I think the commercial might've taken longer than my strategy.
14:45I draft Sam Laporta in round six. If he's gone, I draft Kyle pits in round seven.
14:50If he's gone, I draft Isaiah Lakeley in round eight.
14:53And that's pretty much the three tight ends that I've drafted in almost every draft.
14:57And there's probably 12 tight ends that I'm comfortable with as my starter.
15:01I'm the low guy on Kittle because I, I don't really think he's going to play week one.
15:06I'm not sure he's going to play week two or week three, but I, so I, I have a hard time saying
15:13I'm comfortable with him with my starter. Cause I can't start him.
15:16Sure. And we also don't know how good he's going to be coming off of torn Achilles that he suffered in the playoffs.
15:23So this is going to be, I'm guessing the lowest, I wonder the lowest ADP for George Kittle since when probably a long time.
15:30Um, all right. Uh, Heath, I'll go back to you.
15:33I know who you, actually, I can't go back to you on this one cause you just answered it.
15:39Which tight end do you draft the most? We're just going to, I'm going to, we're going to see somebody start the counter.
15:46How many times can he say Sam LaPorta on this show?
15:49All right. All right. Sam LaPorta. Jamie, who do you draft the most at tight end?
15:54It's a lot of LaPorta when I'm not drafting with Heath.
15:57try to think like who I found myself drafting the most, probably likely Dave, Warren fanning likely, and it would be a
16:03LaPorta too, but you know, I think a better question is who do you avoid?
16:08Obviously we're excited about a lot of these guys.
16:11Fanning for Jamie, Dave, who do you avoid pits?
16:13He's so, are you wanting us to give our bust picks now?
16:17I don't know. Yeah. I mean, if it's the same, yeah, that's, that's, that's why I've got to listen.
16:22Uh, Jerry McBride. Yeah, I knew that, but do you also avoid Bowers?
16:26I will. So, and I'll probably just like intentionally force a Brock Bowers team or two.
16:31I would like to have some Brock Bowers. So, but I don't generally draft him as high as I have to.
16:37The weird thing, I think Jamie hit on it.
16:40The weird thing about Bowers is you pretty much have to take him in round two or have a two or three turn pick.
16:47And I always have, um, the, the 10th, 11th or 12th pick in our mocks.
16:51So I don't ever really have that decision. Well, I love to know hypothetically, uh, you know, if at the two, three
16:58turn, that's my next question is, would you guys take McBride or Bowers at the two, three turn?
17:03Uh, who, who would take McBride or Bowers at the two, three turn?
17:07Me? Who would, or who wouldn't? Who would? I would take him before the two, three turn.
17:12I would take Bowers middle of round two. I would take McBride at the two, three turn, but bark like a dog.
17:19If you would take one of them at the two, three turn.
17:22Anyone? A big dog. I'm trying to cue up.
17:25What are you doing? I'm trying to cue up Dave barking like a dog.
17:29And I, okay. rough, rough, rough. I think the hard thing about taking McBride that early is I'm not sure if I'm
17:36going to be able to get Elijah Higgins. And so I am just a little scared.
17:40Well, don't worry, he's in an auction. You can spend $7.
17:44You got to take Higgins. You have to let everybody know in the snake draft that you're taking Higgins so that nobody else takes McBride.
17:51That's how it works in snake drafts. Okay. Okay.
17:54Good stuff. These are fancy tips. I guess how, uh, how, how, uh, important is it?
17:58I guess not very for you guys to get one of those two tight ends.
18:03Not, um, it's not, it's not important, but I think again, if you, if you're excited about Bowers, which I know a
18:09lot of people are and still believe in McBride, which a lot of people do, like you're going to try and, you
18:16know, look at those players when you start to compare them to, I think it's that group of receivers and probably a couple of running backs.
18:24But like when you get to the middle of the second round and it's like, AJ Brown and Nico Collins and George
18:30Pickens and those, you know, backend are wide receiver ones.
18:33Like they compare to those guys very favorably. Oh gosh.
18:36Well, can we just stop with this crap here?
18:39Please get this off the screen. So, uh, for, for those of you, I asked Jamie, that's the one thing, like if
18:45you could take it back, you would last like 10 years or something.
18:49You said, I'm just going to tell you this, man, I was ridiculed, ridiculed last year when I said that Caleb Williams
18:56had the best arm in the NFL ridiculed by the same people that ridiculed me for my Isaiah Pacheco take.
19:02So yes, I would take it back a hundred percent.
19:05Um, you feel indicated at all that Jameer Gibbs is holding out as a echo, maybe a superstar.
19:10I do. Um, all right. Uh, you know, I had a good point to make about that.
19:15I just made it very poorly. I'm going to try again on, on Friday show.
19:19Anyway, I asked you, I regret it. I wish I could take it back.
19:24I'm going to do it again on Friday. I asked you, Jamie, I think, uh, how many fantasy points would McBride and
19:30Bowers have to average to justify a pick at the two, three turn?
19:34I believe you said 16 a few days ago.
19:37So, and I think I gave this stat, but for those of you who are just starting to listen now, watch now,
19:43here's something to know in the last 10 seasons, 11 tight ends have averaged 16 or more PPR fantasy points per game.
19:50Five of them are Travis Kelsey. No one else has done it more than once, which is amazing.
19:55But this always gets me of those tight ends who average 16 or more PPR fantasy points.
20:00Every single one of them was on a team that averaged at least 251 passing yards per game.
20:05And that's a lot. I think only seven or eight teams did that last year in the NFL.
20:11And one of them was Arizona. I didn't see that coming.
20:14Right? So it could be a surprise, but they led the NFL in pass attempts.
20:18My point is, and this is why I didn't draft those guys last year.
20:23I just didn't think the offenses would be good enough.
20:26Obviously I misread the situation in, uh, in Arizona and I drafted McBride a little bit, but I didn't target him, but
20:32these teams, 11 of them, all 11, 251 or more passing yards per game, nine of the 11 through 28 or more touchdown passes.
20:39So I think you have to ask yourself, do the Cardinals or the Raiders have that kind of offense that can get
20:46me a 16 point per game tight end? Or in the case of Bowers, do you think he's just going to dominate
20:52targets so much that he could be the guy that's the outlier here?
20:56And that could certainly happen. All right. Um, tight ends in strategy in two receiver versus three receiver leagues.
21:02It is a big deal for me. Is it a big deal for anyone else?
21:06Heath, uh, are you more likely to take a tight end earlier in a, two receiver league compared to a three receiver league?
21:13Not really. Like maybe just a couple of picks, but not really.
21:17And Dave, same question. I'm more inclined to take a tight end early in either a shallow league where I know that
21:23there's going to be wide receivers waiting for me a little bit later.
21:27Cause they all get pushed down the board. Fewer teams making picks or in deeper leagues where I just need difference makers.
21:33And I'm just trying to get as many difference makers on my team as I possibly can.
21:38But right in the sweet spot of 12 team leagues, which most people play in, uh, I don't think it matters whether
21:45there's two receivers or three receivers that you must start.
21:48Jamie, two receivers and how many flex spots? One.
21:51Then yes, I'm more inclined to take a tight end a little bit earlier.
21:55Okay. And, and by the way, I should have said this earlier, but most of our, when we do podcasts, we mostly talk about 12 team leagues.
22:03I mean, that's our default. So if we're saying around three pick around four pick, this is in 12 team leagues, which
22:09I do, Jamie have to disagree with something you said about Colson Loveland, not getting to round four.
22:15Cause right now his ADP is pretty firmly in round four in 12 team leagues.
22:19So I think you might get them in round four, but we'll see.
22:23It'd be great. It would be great. Um, all right, let's do a sleepers, breakouts and busts.
22:28Jamie, who's your favorite sleeper tight end? Uh, I think Dave took my favorite one of Okonkwo.
22:33Um, so the next one will be Goddard. I think just looking at again, small sample size, but the, he played four
22:40games that AJ Brown, but three of them, he was, he was very solid and just target opportunity there.
22:45So hopefully for one more year, you know, we'll see what Stowers does and what kind of role he plays is the future tight end for the Eagles.
22:54But I think just looking at it as he's going to compete with Makai Lemon for that second spot in terms of targets.
23:00And it might just be the comfort level and rapport that Jalen Hurts has with him that will kind of give him
23:07that edge, but we know the touchdowns should be there for him as well.
23:11So I like Goddard as that, uh, he's my 13th tight end.
23:15I like Okonkwo 12th. 13 is a good number because Dallas Goddard has finished as a top 13 tight end per game
23:21in PPR in seven straight seasons, top 10 per game in five of the last six, top six per game in two
23:28of the last four with AJ Brown. So Dallas Goddard.
23:31Yeah, that's seven years in a row. Top 13.
23:33Heath, who's your favorite sleeper? I will go with Greg Dulcich.
23:37I think I got to choose first on, on all of these.
23:40So, my, but yeah, I, I think he, we, we always talk about the guys from the double digit rounds who turn
23:47into top six or eight tight ends, almost always finish first or second on their team and targets.
23:52The dolphins don't have a proven wide receiver one or a proven wide receiver to Greg Dulcich was second amongst tight ends
23:58on a very small sample size in yards per route run last year.
24:02He's still young enough. He's been good in terms of yak.
24:06So Greg Dulcich at minicamp. He was getting targeted a lot and moving around the formation a lot.
24:11And Malika Willis does have a history. We know his history of not throwing to running backs.
24:16He does have at least a decent history of throwing to tight ends.
24:20I like the Dulcich call. I like the Goddard call too.
24:23Do you like the Okonkwo call by you? I do also like the Oconquo call, which is just a nice sign that
24:30there are three good sleeper tight ends that people can think about.
24:33And I bet if you forced us, we could name three other ones who could fill that role, which means that the
24:40idea of taking a second tight end, that's something you should completely write off.
24:44But if Oconquo is replacing Zach Ertz in the Washington offense and the Washington offense is not adding Brandon, I you or Stefan digs.
24:51Then just as he said, here's a tight end that can finish first or second on his team and targets last year, 4.7 targets per game.
24:59It's not a lot. And it's in Tennessee and Tennessee sucked.
25:02And he averaged over seven PPR points per game.
25:05That might be able to extrapolate to nine or 10 PPR points per game.
25:09If he's getting North of six targets per game, that might be a little rich because the target per route run for
25:15Ertz with Daniels on the field was 17.2%, but Ertz filled a very valuable role for Jade Daniels.
25:21He was the short area target, but Ertz couldn't really do anything with the ball after he caught it.
25:26You know, he's an old guy, a Conquo. We know what his efficiency is like.
25:31We saw it at the end of the season, a couple of years back.
25:35We know that he's kind of an athletic freak.
25:37You're able to get him in the late rounds.
25:40There's all kinds of rich potential with him. Zach Ertz in 2024 averaged 10.4 PPR points per game with Jane Daniels.
25:46And Okonkwo only 16 games in his career with at least six targets per game, with at least six targets.
25:52And he averaged 11.7 PPR points in those 16 games.
25:55So he's been basically a good low end starter if he gets those chances.
25:59His yards after the catch avoided tackle rate over his past three seasons dwarfs what Ertz has done in his past two.
26:06It is an upgrade for the commanders. You just have to watch out for Stefan Diggs signing, Antonio Williams breaking out, Traylon
26:12Burks getting healthy and suddenly morphing into a first round pit.
26:16Like all these things, they're hurdles, but they're not necessarily like straight up roadblocks for Okonkwo being good.
26:21Okay. I'm going to ask you guys about breakout tight ends in a minute, but we have draft-a-thon starting.
26:27It's already begun and you can bid on, well, you can purchase a spot in a mock draft.
26:32You can purchase a mailbag question to be read on our mailbag show.
26:36And it all goes to St. Jude and Monday you can get into the FFT open.
26:41There are plenty of opportunities this year. We're going to have 36 leagues in, in the FFT open.
26:46So I just, sorry, Thomas, if you can throw that URL, I forgot it.
26:50Tiny URL.com slash something. I'll tell you what it is in a moment.
26:54FFT donate 2026. Yeah, there you go. A tiny URL.com slash FFT donate 2026.
26:58And on Monday evening, the FFT open league spots will become available.
27:02Is it, was it 7 PM Eastern? Is that, I can confirm that for me, but for some of the leagues like
27:08the Adam, Dave, Jamie Heath, Dan, Jacob leagues, you're going to have to get there like right on time and get in.
27:15But if you, what's up? Yeah. Sorry. Uh, it's 7 PM.
27:18Awesome. 7 PM. Eastern tiny URL.com slash FFT donate 2026.
27:21That's live Monday night. All of the FFT open leagues will be up.
27:25Now, if you don't get into one of those, don't worry.
27:28There are plenty of leagues and plenty of great people from around the industry, like Andy Holloway of the footballers and Alfredo Brown and Joe P.
27:36Sapia and Chris Harris and Jake Sealy. Dave, who are some of the guys that you lined up for the FFT open?
27:42We got Bob Harris. We've got Gary Davenport. We've got Roto Pat.
27:46There are all kinds of people. If you've ever sat there and said, man, I wish I could take on a fantasy
27:52analyst in a fantasy league, man, you have your pick of the litter on who to play against in, in the FFT open.
27:59And it's for a great cause. You're helping St.
28:02Jude children's research hospital. I don't, this may just go over like a lead balloon and I'll never mention it again.
28:08And hopefully we'll just talk about Isaiah Pacheco. I, I didn't shave the, the mountain beard yet because I was on the airplane coming home.
28:16One of the 17 airplanes I was on coming home.
28:19And I thought, I wonder if we could raise any money for St.
28:22Jude. If we did like the buckets where people get to choose, if I have to grow the beard out throughout the
28:29entire football season, or if I have to just shave the beard off and only, wear the mustache for the football season,
28:35do you think we'd raise any money doing that?
28:38I do. If you, if, if you would donate money for that, put it in the chat or send us an email and let us know.
28:46And if we get some response, then I'll tell Claire that I will do that.
28:50My wife didn't like it, but I told her we'll have a bucket for Heath shaves his face and she can donate
28:57money if she wants that one to win. All right, real quick.
29:00It's a couple other things to promote is we have a CBS sports network show tomorrow at 1 PM Eastern.
29:06Please join us for that CBS sports network. And finally, the app I've got, I got an email this morning, someone raving about the new app.
29:14So please check it out. The CBS sports fantasy app.
29:17If you're watching on youtube.com slash fantasy football today, scan the QR code.
29:21Heath was worried about the, the beard stuff going over like a lead balloon.
29:25It's definitely going to go over like a lead balloon in his house.
29:29Uh, Ben had a very good comment in the chat says shave three lines in your beard and I'm in.
29:35All right. All right. Enough picking on me. Let's get to the players.
29:39We love at the tight end position. Heath, who's your favorite breakout this year?
29:43My, this is the one where I really just like stole the thunder, the most obvious breakout pick of all time.
29:49It's Colson Loveland, but I really do think like you were talking about the guys who average 16 fantasy points per game and how good their offenses are.
29:57It's kind of funny because Loveland's definitely for most people, a tier below Brock Bowers and Trey McBride.
30:03But if you were going to ask who's, who could be on a really great offense this year amongst the top three
30:09tight ends, everyone would say Colston Loveland. Um, I'm going to be on beyond the box score talking about ambiguous target trees in just about, uh, 45 minutes.
30:17And the first one we're talking about is the bears as of right now.
30:22I just have Loveland, Odunze and burden all projected for a 20% target share.
30:26So just tied. If Colston Loveland is the number one option in Chicago, he could absolutely be better than Brock Bowers and Trey McBride this season.
30:33He's I, I love him in round four. I don't ever seem to get him there.
30:38I know Adam, you say his ADPs there. He's not, not generally in our drafts or at least when I'm picking.
30:44Um, but yes, Colston Loveland breakout, everyone obvious. Is there anything that concerns you about Loveland?
30:49I'm going to throw a stat at you. And I, cause you know, Jacob Gibbs loves Loveland and I threw this stat
30:56at Jacob and he did not seem to like it very much.
30:59Uh, now we gave 16 points per game for Bowers and McBride, you know, to justify the two, three turn.
31:05Can I just say 15 points per game for Loveland or 15?
31:09In round four, I think 14 would be fine.
31:11Okay. So I, even a little lower than that would be okay.
31:15Let's just take 15 though, just as an example, real quick, seven tight ends have averaged 15 points per game over the last five seasons.
31:22They have averaged 9.1, 8.4, 8.9, 6.3, 9.0, 9.2, and 9.9 targets per game.
31:27So the six of the seven tight ends averaged 8.4 or more targets per game.
31:31And, and those are the guys who averaged 15 points per game over the last five years.
31:36And the one guy who didn't do it was George Kittle.
31:39And we know George Kittle is, is the man in terms of 14 points per game.
31:44Over the last five years, there have been 14 tight ends who have averaged 14 or more points per game.
31:50Eight of them averaged more than eight targets per game.
31:5310 of them averaged more than seven targets per game.
31:56So right there, bam, 10 of 14 tight ends who scored 14 or more points per game in the last five years, averaged seven targets per game.
32:04That's 119 targets per year. You at home, ask yourself, do we think Colson Loveland can get that?
32:09There have been guys, George Kittle three times and Tucker Craft in eight games last year, averaged 14 or more PPR fantasy
32:16points with less than seven targets per game. But that's usually the number you need.
32:20You haven't projected for 119. I've got him projected for 126.
32:23Hey, okay. Hey, then we're in the money. And that's what the 20% target share.
32:28Yeah. Great. That's great. Okay. Dave, who's your favorite breakout?
32:31I like the idea of Isaiah likely as the number two target getter in New York and someone who would obviously get
32:37a lot of work if Malik neighbors weren't ready to start the season.
32:41But based on what we've seen on social media in the last 24 hours, Malik neighbors is going to be ready to start the season.
32:49And that's still a good thing for Isaiah likely, because I think there will be enough targets to go around.
32:55We're likely can at least average around six per game, something that he didn't really have the opportunity to do a lot of in Baltimore.
33:02We know about the athletic profile. We know that he's a mismatch problem.
33:06We know that Matt Nagy does have a tendency to lean on his tight end.
33:10Granted, Travis Kelsey was his tight end for a bunch of time in Kansas city.
33:15And in Chicago, he tried to make it work with Trey Burton.
33:18Trey Burton was a little below average, but he's still, it's still something that he's had.
33:23It's a component of his offenses. It's been consistent.
33:26Jackson dart had a 22.8% target rate to his tight ends last year.
33:30Honestly, that's below average. I think that number could go up.
33:33Isaiah likely nine career games, six or more targets, 12 and a half PPR points in eight of the nine, 14.8 in six of the nine.
33:41He just needs targets. I think he's on a team where he's going to get them.
33:45And I love the ADP. He's going right around a hundredth overall.
33:49That's a steal. I think, I think Dave and I have one fight coming up on the show, but, but we've come together on Sam Laporta.
33:57We've come together early in the off season. We were arguing about Laporta likely in pits.
34:01We've come together on Isaiah likely. We have, we've got, we've got one more coming together.
34:06Yeah. We're not going to come together a little bit later.
34:09Not happening. Jamie, who's your favorite breakout? I mean, it's a guy that was on his way to doing it last year.
34:16So I'll just hope he gets a full season of it, but it's Tucker craft.
34:20Um, he's talked about ambiguous receiving cores. I mean, the Packers are right up there, uh, at the top of the list
34:27as well, you know, so who's going to be the leader in targets for this team.
34:32They lose 131 targets from Romeo Dobbs and Don Tavenwix leaving craft was averaging just shy of six targets per game.
34:38Hopefully we get a little bit more opportunities for him.
34:41First of all, hopefully he's healthy, but you know, I think if you just look at what he was on his way
34:47to doing last year, had he finished the season, he would be, I think in the conversation to be in the top
34:54five, if not maybe the top three as well.
34:56So, uh, lots of love about craft scenario here.
34:59So you have Christian Watson and Matthew golden and Jane Reed, you know, all competing to lead the team in targets.
35:05This is a team that typically does not have one true alpha in the LaFleur era, uh, since Devante Adams left, excuse me.
35:12So we'll see if, you know, we can get 120 target season.
35:16I don't know if that's realistic, but 110, I think that's certainly within the realm of possibilities for Tucker craft.
35:22And I think if he gets those chances, he had, I think it was, uh, six touchdowns in the nine games he played.
35:28Um, yeah, he did six. Yeah. I have an eight games, eight games, eight games, eight games.
35:34He played, um, it's just, you know, easy to gravitate towards somebody like this again.
35:38Hopefully that he's healthy. Didn't love that. He started on the public, but that's not a guarantee that he misses week.
35:44Yeah. Tucker craft expects to come off the pup list.
35:47And I think you look at his 17 game pace.
35:50If you take out week nine, when he tore his ACL, it's a hundred targets, which for him is, is, is enough,
35:57not necessarily to be amazing, but to return value 73 catches, 1139 yards, 15 touchdowns.
36:01There's some flukiness. He had a bunch of like long touchdowns with a lot of yak that no one has basically ever
36:08done before in an eight game sample size. Uh, he is the best yak tight end probably in the history of the NFL.
36:14I don't think that's an exaggeration. 9.1 yards after the catch, um, which is in his career.
36:19That's the most since true media started tracking it with a minimum of 50 targets.
36:24Uh, he's incredible. You just have to wonder what's he going to be like coming off 20 ACL.
36:29He's back to being himself. He's, he's so good.
36:32And guys, honestly, that my, my issue with the tight end position is I just, I don't know who has the best value.
36:39If you start get past those neck, those top three, I know that none of us are going to take Harold Fannin Jr.
36:46In round six as the fourth tight end. I don't, I don't think not when we can wait and get someone else.
36:52Right. But, but on CBS, Harold Fannin Jr. Is the eighth tight end, but you know, Harold Fannin Jr.
36:58In round six. Oh, sorry. Tyler Warren in round five as the, so Fannin was the fifth tight end.
37:03My bad. Warren in round five, Fannin in round six, Pitts in round six, the Porter round seven, Kraft in round seven, Kittle round eight.
37:11What's the best value there? LaPorta. LaPorta. LaPorta's up there.
37:14I don't hate Warren. As tight end four in round five.
37:17Sure. And yeah, I don't hate that. I also think that if Tucker Kraft is moving around just fine and all reports
37:24are hunky dory out of Green Bay, he's moving up.
37:26Yeah. Because first he's got to get off the pup.
37:29Right. First he's got to get off the pup list.
37:32Then he's got to, you know, be eased into practice.
37:35Hopefully that happens sooner than later. But I think anytime you've got a tight end, that's already winning in terms of hyper efficiency.
37:42And then there's the possibility of giving him more opportunities to take advantage of that efficiency.
37:47You could have a real, just an absolute game wrecker on your fantasy team.
37:51So there's potential there for Kraft for sure. Just got to see it.
37:55And I don't talk about Tyler Warren much at all.
37:58I mostly agree with Dave saying like Tyler Warren in round five is good.
38:02I just can't pull the trigger when Sam Laporta is in round seven.
38:06Cause I think they're kind of the same guy.
38:09We got to get into Laporta here. We got to take a break though.
38:13So we'll get to our busts after this. Then we'll do an ADP review and talk about Laporta, talk about pits, very
38:19important players, very exciting prospects going into the 2026 season and what they could do.
38:24But obviously I'm here with my, with my pitcher of cold water.
38:27I got to pour it on here just to give the, just to be the devil's advocate and we'll be right back.
38:34Wait, was that, that was only the second break I took, right?
38:37I didn't take a third break. Did I? That was your second break.
38:41Okay. All right. Who's going to be a bust, Jamie?
38:44I said it at the start of the show.
38:47It's Fannin. You know, I'm just concerned. Tight end eight's not bad, but I don't think we ever see him get there
38:53in, in drafts that we don't do. So I understand the excitement for him.
38:58He was awesome last year, led the team in targets.
39:00Had one of the best tight end coaches, maybe in NFL history.
39:04He loses that. He gets a quarterback that doesn't throw to his tight ends, at least based on what we're expecting to
39:11see at the start of the season with Watson starting over Sanders.
39:14And now you have these two rookie wide receivers, a first round pick in Casey Concepcion, a second round pick in Denzel Boston.
39:21You still have Jerry duty there for what it's worth.
39:24The receiving core is much better. And so I just think we're going to see Fannin take a step backwards.
39:30I don't think he's going to be bad. I don't think he's going to be outside the top 12, barring just something
39:36disastrous, but I don't want to draft him where I think you're probably going to have to draft in which I think
39:43is closer to tight end six than tight end eight.
39:46Dave, who's going to be a bust? Kyle Pitts.
39:49Okay. Here we go. This is where Heath and Dave are not aligned.
39:52Ridiculous. Absurd. Absurd. He's been in the league five years.
39:55I have eyes. We all have eyes. He's been, he has not met expectations once except last year in five games without Drake London.
40:02He was a monster. 8.8 targets per game, 19 PPR points per game.
40:06That looked like the guy that we had drafted as an early pick in dynasty drafts.
40:11And then it went away and he didn't get off to a good start.
40:15How did he do in 12 games with Drake London?
40:189.6 PPR points per game. That's on 6.2 targets per game, almost as many targets per game as Bijan Robinson had last year.
40:25And I get it. Kevin Stefanski is this great tight end wizard.
40:29Who's going to turn Kyle Pitts into Travis Kelsey.
40:31And gosh, look at what he's done with all those guys in, in Cleveland.
40:35I'm going to bet against it because I've seen it enough times from Kyle Pitts.
40:40And on top of that, you've got quarterbacks that aren't a hundred percent.
40:44They're not great throwers to begin with. I don't know if, if to a tongue of a, yeah, once upon a time
40:50he did support Tyree kill and Jalen Waddle. I don't know if he's going to be able to do that in Atlanta with Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
40:59I'll bet on London all day long. I think those easy targets will be there.
41:03There's buzz about other wide receivers in Atlanta. I don't want to overrate Kyle Pitts based on the numbers that he got
41:09in five games, including one monster game against Tampa.
41:12London wasn't there for that either. He's, he's exciting, but he's been teasing us for five years, Adam.
41:17I don't think Kevin Stefanski can save him and turn him into somebody that's going to be at the top five tight end.
41:24And I sure as hell, they're not drafting him as a top five tight end.
41:29He's not being drafted as a top five tight end.
41:32So I think if we're like using, calling somebody a bus based on an ADP that is higher than the ADP that they actually have.
41:39He's tight end six. He's tight end six. Okay.
41:42So he's not in six and he's certainly not a top 70 pick.
41:46Where's he going right now? He's almost at 70.
41:48Yeah. So he's a little bit ahead of 70.
41:51I would also, I would also say that like a thousand yard season as a rookie tight end averaging 9.3 yards per target is good.
41:58That's great. That was five years ago. The last five games weren't the only time he's ever been good.
42:04He did suffer a PCL injury in the middle of 2022, which we've come to find out the PCL is a pretty bad thing.
42:11It basically destroyed Brock Bowers last year. Um, the other thing I would say is like Kevin Stefanski, the last three seasons,
42:18his offense, 166 targets to the tight ends, 166 targets to the tight ends.
42:22That was two years in a row. I didn't repeat myself.
42:25169 targets to the tight ends. He goes to Atlanta.
42:28They give Kyle Pitts $7 billion, just an enormous tight end contract.
42:32And we're just supposed to expect that they're not going to throw the ball to the tight ends as much as Kevin Stefanski always has.
42:39It's not even Stefanski calling the plays. No, it's the guy that was calling the plays the last three years for him.
42:46I don't think he was calling plays the last three years.
42:49Two years? Yeah. Two years. All right, fine. That's fine.
42:52Reeves is certainly in line to deserve credit for that too.
42:55Yeah, six targets per game is where he's been basically.
42:58That's where he was last year with London. I'm telling you, I don't think he's going to go up much more than that.
43:05I think just to go back to your Tua point, Johnnie Smith, 13.1 PPR points two years ago with Tua Tonga Bailoa.
43:11Yeah, right. But that was the only, yes, it's true.
43:14Darren Waller was good when he was healthy. Darren Waller in three of the five games they played together.
43:20That's the comparison that I'll buy into. You can get me on that one for sure.
43:25Johnnie was like used like a running back almost because he was getting these little short dink targets.
43:30Now they could use Pitts the same way. We don't know for sure, but the way that the Dolphins used Waller last
43:37year, absolutely in line with what Pitts potentially could do.
43:40No question about it. This is a topic for another show, but if we're bumping up Pitts because of Stefanski, are we lowering London or Bijan Robinson?
43:48Because those guys had a bunch of targets last year.
43:51London had 112 and Bijan had 103. And London only played 12 games, but let me not get off on that tangent.
43:57No, no, it's funny you say that about Bijan because I'll have a story up by the end of the week of
44:04making a case why every player in the first round could be a bust.
44:08And Stefanski, the most targets he gave to one running back since 2020 was 63.
44:12Right. This is where I go back to personal.
44:15And his number one running back in that span from 2020 to 2025 averaged 44 targets per game.
44:20Like that's scary for Bijan. It's scary, but that's coaching malpractice if he does that.
44:25It's coaching malpractice. It's also going against everything Tua does.
44:28So, you know, it's just, you know, it's counterintuitive to what the player and the quarterback have.
44:33But just in terms of, you just said it, Stefanski's offense does not like throwing to running back.
44:38Again, he didn't have a player like Bijan Robinson.
44:41Well, a lot of, a lot of their dump offs just go to tight ends instead of running backs.
44:46And listen, it's not like he hasn't had any good running backs in that stretch.
44:51Like there was a Nick Chubb years. Yeah, but he doesn't have a good pass catching running back.
44:56Nick Chubb is like Derrick Henry. No, he had Kareem Hunt for a few years, which is not the same as Bijan
45:03Robinson, but he did some nice things at the pass.
45:06And tell me who his wide receivers were in Cleveland.
45:08And maybe there's one I'm forgetting. He had Amari Cooper.
45:11Yeah. He had Amari Cooper. Jerry Judy had a great year one year.
45:15Yeah, I meant to ask you this. When you did the Parker Washington late season finishes, was Judy on that list?
45:22I'd have to go back and look. But yeah, he has to.
45:25Are you talking, what are you talking about? Like big season?
45:28When you said guys had great late season finishes, was he part of that graphic?
45:33Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, two years ago. And just for, to finish that discussion, Adam, I've got it at 28% target share
45:39for Drake London, 22% for Kyle Pitts, 18% for Bijan.
45:42Okay. All right. Totally fair. What's the overall projection for Pitts?
45:4693 catches, 1,045 yards, six touchdowns. Because six touchdowns is the most obvious part.
45:50Right. So a career year for Kyle Pitts. All right.
45:53What do I need here? I need a bust from Heath?
45:56Oh, yes. Yes. Go for it. I mean, it's Trey McBride.
45:59I think he's awesome. But also last year, he was third in yards per outrun.
46:04That's good. 11th in fantasy points per target, 12th in yards per target, 15th in explosives per target, 16th in yak per reception.
46:10And you're like, well, how in the world was he so much better than every other tight end?
46:16He ran 122 more routes than any other tight end.
46:19Basically two more games worth of routes for Trey McBride than any other tight end.
46:23I think it's probable that Jacoby Brissett's not going to be quite as good as he was last year.
46:29It's probable that we're going to see Carson Beck for a third of the season, maybe more.
46:34And I think we're going to some of that great McBride came with Marvin Harrison Jr.
46:39not on the field, especially when it comes to the touchdowns.
46:42And he and Michael Wilson, who has ascended. So McBride's still a top two tight end for me right now.
46:48I haven't quite been brave enough to move Colston Loveland ahead of him, but I may if I get a couple of training camp highlights.
46:55No, but I just don't think he's going to be worth the squeeze.
46:59I basically have him and Loveland does the same thing.
47:02Okay, it's tough. It all makes sense. But this is a guy in his last 43 games is on pace for 159 targets.
47:09So which is which is about what drew pets and Kevin Stavansky average per year.
47:13He's really good. He also had he had 18 end zone targets last year, which led the NFL Trey McBride.
47:19But when Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the field, he only had six of them.
47:24Marvin Harrison Jr. actually dominated the end zone targets basically for the second straight year.
47:28If I were if I were the Cardinals, the perfect play design and I probably would do it like almost any time in the red zone.
47:36I would just make sure that Marvin crosses in front of McBride.
47:39He'll drop it. Yeah, go right through his hands and McBride will catch touchdown.
47:44Yeah, it's not been a good camp so far for Marvin Harrison Jr.
47:47So yeah, McBride's super interesting. We've talked about him in depth.
47:51I would encourage you maybe if you want to listen to the Beyond the Box Square episode that Jacob and I did on Trey McBride.
47:58It was a lot, a lot as much Trey McBride info as you could possibly handle.
48:03But yeah, tough player to to to to pass on.
48:06But also we make compelling cases why he could really regress.
48:09OK, just a couple of things you need to know.
48:12Remember, top two in targets over the last 10 seasons.
48:15There have only been four tight ends who have finished as a top five overall, not per game, top five tight end
48:22in PPR and have not been first or second on their team in targets.
48:26So that is 50 tight ends. Forty six of them who have finished top five have been first or second on their team in targets.
48:33And this is you know, we talk greater late for quarterback.
48:3638% of the tight ends who have finished top five overall in PPR in the last decade were drafted in round 10 or later.
48:43Greater late exist. And sometimes they come out of absolutely nowhere like John Smith a couple of years ago.
48:49So I'll ask you the same question. I asked you about quarterbacks.
48:53Who are the who are the three you think that can qualify for this?
48:57Based on average draft position that could become a top five tight end.
49:01Definitely Okonkwo. Kincaid. Because I still think he's a really good player.
49:04Yeah. And then, yeah, so I said round 10 or later.
49:07I mean, there's a bunch of guys. Likely Ferguson, Goddard, Andrews, Kincaid are all rounds 10 and 11.
49:13Did you hear what Liam Cohen said yesterday? I saw he praised Parker Washington, I think.
49:18He always praises Parker Washington. He praises everybody. The two players that Trevor is going to throw the ball the most to are Parker and Brenton Strange.
49:26Oh, great. That's great stuff. Top two of targets.
49:28Jake Ferguson, I think, is going too early personally.
49:31He's going ahead of Goddard and Andrews and Kincaid and all that.
49:34Is he the worst tight end that's probably going to get 100 targets?
49:38Ever? No, no. This season. I'm not sure he gets 100 targets this season.
49:42I don't know that he will because he was pretty.
49:45Every Dak tight end gets 100. I have him projected at 99.
49:49The answer might be Dalton Schultz. But it's one of those two.
49:53Just Jake Ferguson averaged 8.7 points per game in 13 games with CeeDee Lamb.
49:57So he was amazing without CeeDee Lamb. 18.6 points per game.
50:00Four of his eight touchdowns. Five of his 11 end zone targets in four games without Lamb.
50:05I'm counting the Chicago game where Lamb, I believe, left on the opening drive.
50:09He was like – he was basically Kyle Pitts.
50:12It was like the Kyle Pitts-Drake-London splits are basically the Jake Ferguson – CeeDee Lamb splits.
50:17Wait. Does that benefit Ferguson or does that benefit your argument by keeping that game in for Lamb?
50:22Yeah. Benefits Ferguson. Okay. And by the way, yeah, I was going to say he's actually probably a really good handcuff because
50:28if Lamb or Pickens gets hurt, I think Ferguson then could easily be a top five tight.
50:33You know, Ferguson was the number five tight end in fantasy last year.
50:37Well, that's what I'm saying. Like he's going to get – I think Heath's projection is right.
50:42I think he's going to get 100 targets. That's basically what Dak does every year.
50:47He gives his tight end 100 targets. And will he be surprisingly productive?
50:51Like he could be the touchdown tight end this year, you know, the guy that catches seven or eight and just doesn't
50:57have a lot with it and creeps his way into the top 12.
51:01But we're like, we hate that guy. Yeah. Do you guys think Mark Andrews is cooked?
51:06I was watching some tape yesterday and it was not good.
51:09Well, I mean like as far as athleticism goes and all that.
51:13He used to be an elite athlete, I think, at the position.
51:16Yeah. Yeah, he's definitely slowed down, but I still think he's in a position to put up some okay numbers.
51:22He's not a top 12 tight end, but he's close.
51:25Has he said he's in the best shape of his life yet?
51:29No. I don't know, but he has 69 or 70 targets two straight years.
51:33That's just so low. And he's played every game.
51:35Not an exciting tight end to draft. But I would be 0% surprised if he scores 12 touchdowns this year.
51:41Exactly. He's always very involved, Andrews, in the red zone and the green zone and the end zone.
51:47Lamar loves him. Declan Doyle came up as a tight end coach.
51:50They're going to use more tight ends in the offense this year.
51:54Andrews or Goddard? Mike Ditka's nephew. Goddard. Andrews or Goddard?
51:57Dave says Goddard. Goddard. I think I have Andrews one spot higher, but they're both around.
52:02Spider-Man meme. Yep. Hopefully. But we just really haven't seen a lot of Goddard without A.J.
52:06Brown. So there's possibilities for more targets. Certainly more than 70.
52:10I mean... When's the last time we saw Andrews without Isaiah Likely?
52:13We saw, I think, week one. At least week one.
52:16He had like a nothing game against a team that was very good against tight ends.
52:21Baltimore. I'm sorry. In Buffalo. And... All right. Let's do our ADP review.
52:25So Trey McBride and Fantasy Pros is going 20th.
52:27Brock Bowers is going 21st. On CBS, those guys are actually into round three.
52:32Early, early round three. So we talked about that earlier.
52:3420th, certainly too early for McBride. When would you guys take McBride?
52:38When would you take Bowers? I'm good with McBride at 20th.
52:41Oh, okay. I don't want to overthink it. Like, I totally get Heath's point, and I don't think McBride will be as good.
52:48I don't think he scores as many touchdowns. I don't think the targets will be quite up there.
52:53But he also averaged like 19 PPR points per game.
52:56He was like 11th amongst everybody that wasn't a quarterback in fantasy points per game last year.
53:01It's coming down, but it might not come down that much.
53:05He's the best pass catcher on this team. Jacoby Brissett has a long track record of trusting his tight end.
53:11He's going to continue to do that. I am sure that Carson Beck, when he gets on the field, will be told, do the same thing.
53:18Lean on Trey McBride. He's the best guy they have.
53:21They're going to be trailing in every single game.
53:24He's still going to run a ton of routes.
53:27He's still going to have a ton of garbage time.
53:30He's still going to be very, very good. I'm not going to fault you if you put Bowers ahead of him.
53:36But no one else, not even Loveland, you can make a case for in full PPR ahead of Trey McBride.
53:42What are you anticipating as the floor for McBride by calling him a bust?
53:46Like, what does he have to do to justify you being right?
53:4914 fantasy points per game or lower? Yeah, that's not a round two pick.
53:54That's fair. Yeah. That's fair. But that's not going to kill you, though.
53:57Like, if we fast forward six months and that's what McBride has and you took him at 20th overall, like, it's not awesome.
54:04It's not what you drafted him for. It probably is.
54:07It probably is dependent on how he gets to the 14 because Bowers was at 14 last year.
54:13And it was clearly frustrating. Injury, plague. Right. He didn't play.
54:16Big spike game against Jacksonville where everything looked like, OK, he's back.
54:19He's going to be this dominant guy again. And then it was another good game here, bad game there.
54:25Like, you know, so his 14 was really misleading.
54:28I think what I'm really afraid of with McBride is it's 15 fantasy points per game for the first 10 weeks.
54:34And then Carson Beck takes over. And when you need him most, it's 11 and a half.
54:39Well, OK, it's also with the quarterback. Like, they have the worst schedule in the league.
54:44Yeah. You know, so you have everybody healthy going into the season because he dealt with Marvin Harrison missing the second half of the year.
54:51Big portion of the second half of the year.
54:54You have maybe a quarterback change coming at some point.
54:57You have, you know, new coordinator who new play caller who doesn't have the same history as Petsing does or comes from
55:03the same tree that Petsing does not. That's bad, but it's just not the same.
55:08And so, like, again, for me, I'm more Bowers over McBride.
55:11But I just think, like, that's why I wanted to get Heath's, you know, number or, you know, like, where does it
55:18where it's like if he gets you 14, like Dave said, like, that's not awful, but it's not where you're drafting him.
55:24And that's, I think, fair for both sides. Right.
55:27Like, if you had told me 12 instead of 14 and the dude's averaging six catches for 55 yards or even worse,
55:33five catches for 45 yards and he has a touchdown every now and then.
55:37Yeah, that's terrible. But that's I don't think that's possible.
55:40I think he's the best guy that Arizona has, period.
55:43And the other question that you fantasy managers have to ask yourself is, is this really going to be a great year for tight ends?
55:51Because that influences how high Bowers and McBride should go as well.
55:54If you think that we have a deeper position than ever, then the true studs aren't going to stand out quite as much.
56:01They'll still stand out, but not quite as much.
56:04I'm a little skeptical because, look, I've sat here many times and been like, this is going to be a good year for tight end.
56:11We've all been kind of feeling that way and it just, it never works, even though the tight end target rate keeps
56:18going up with that just is other tight ends.
56:20It's not like they're going just to the starting guys that we play in fantasy.
56:25It's all, it's like the, the, it's a macro trend.
56:28It doesn't, you can't apply it to the, every single tight end.
56:31Wasn't last year a pretty great year for tight ends.
56:34Yeah, it was. Okay. It was, but, but, but McBride was still, I mean, a huge advantage.
56:39So much better than everybody else. Yeah. All right.
56:42Um, Bowers was better on a per game basis than George Pickens, James Cook, Drake, London, Chris Olave, Chase Brown.
56:48He was a hundred points better than tight end two.
56:51We haven't seen the best of Brock Bowers yet.
56:54I think that's fair to say. And, and that's amazing since he's been over 14, 14 and a half points or better two straight seasons.
57:01And he's been on one of the worst offenses in the NFL both years.
57:05He played through a sprained PCL and a bone bruise in week one.
57:09They played through for the rest of the year.
57:12Basically we had his former coach on and, and Scott Turner said Brock Bowers might be the most talented player he's ever
57:18coached or the best players ever coach. So we're, you said he was the best player on the team when he was there.
57:25Yeah. That was when Bowers was a rookie. We had, uh, we had Brian McFadden, uh, one of our NFL analysts, former
57:32defensive back for the Steelers in training camp with Las Vegas yesterday.
57:35So I encourage you to find the interview he did with Bowers.
57:39He looks ripped man. Like it's, it's, uh, it, it, it sets up for a great season for him.
57:44I mean, the receiving core is so bad on paper, you know?
57:48And so look, somebody out of Naylor and, uh, Tucker and, and, and best, if they don't add somebody else are going to be okay.
57:55But like this, this was the big prize set up last year, you know, where you had missing time for other guys, inconsistent performances for these guys.
58:03It's just a matter of can Kirk cousins at this point in his career, get what we need to Bowers for him
58:10to be elite or can Mendoza, whenever he starts do the same thing.
58:14I'm going to say yes, because we saw it with cousins and pits last year.
58:18Like there's, there's a lot to love about Bowers and just the setup, you know, forget about the execution, like process and results, different things here.
58:26Like Bowers can be what McBride was last year.
58:29I don't think McBride can do it again. I think Bowers can do that.
58:33Yep. Well, we really only saw it with Penix and pits though, as I recall.
58:37And it's been like that way for both. What was a couple of cousins?
58:41No, no, no, no, no. I'm so sorry. I'm thinking of Penix in London.
58:45It's past in London thing. It was cousins and pits.
58:48Cousins and pits. You're absolutely right. Um, all right.
58:51Let's London wasn't around. Uh, Colson Loveland, you know, we see him going around three could go in round four.
58:57We love Colson Loveland. I'd like to see them throw a screen to him.
59:01He did not have a single screen pass last year.
59:04Uh, that's kind of weird. Most of the top, most of the best tight ends get a lot of those.
59:10He's a high a dot guy, but he's super talented and, uh, should do a lot with his targets.
59:16So then we get Tyler Warren. We haven't discussed much about Tyler Warren here.
59:20He's the fourth tight end off the board. And, uh, Dave, you seem to sound some optimism on him as a round five pick for Tyler Warren.
59:2813.1 PPR points per game in the 12 games with Daniel Jones last year, eight of them with 11 plus PPR.
59:34Michael Pittman's gone and not really replaced. So there's a chance that that target volume can go up.
59:39What if that goes up to a Brock Bowers ask seven and a half per game or a, uh, Trey McBride ask nine per game.
59:47Then we're talking about an absolute smash. And this off, they're still going to continue to do a lot of the concepts that they did last year.
59:55It's get the ball out fast. Let the receivers make a play after the catch.
59:59I, I know that we're excited about Josh Downs.
60:02We don't know where we're at without Pierce. There is nothing but upside in front of Tyler Warren, who's already shown us
60:08in the one year he's been in the league that he's capable of coming through on it.
60:13Red zone beast on top of that. I love drafting him in round five.
60:18Okay. Harold Fannin Jr. In round six. I think that's been discussed enough.
60:21We're not quite there. Kyle pits in round six.
60:24Heath as the Kyle pits guy. Do you think round six is a good value for him?
60:29Yeah. Okay. You're definitely the Sam Laporta guy. Is everybody a Sam Laporta guy in round seven?
60:34We all like Laporta in round seven. Yep. I like Laporta in round six.
60:38Yeah. I think he should go ahead of pits personally, but agreed.
60:42Okay. Why the optimism here for Laporta last year, he was tight end seven per game.
60:47What was the year before that? It was similar the year before that.
60:51Sorry. I'll look that up. This is my favorite, maybe my favorite tight end stats.
60:55I'm glad we're giving it an hour and a minute into the show.
60:59Thank you guys for sticking around. If you like we, we've talked about a lot, Sam Laporta.
61:04His play caller was Trey McBride's play caller the last three years.
61:07If you look at Sam Laporta's career averages versus Trey McBride's career highs, Sam Laporta's career average in yards per target, 8.3.
61:14Trey McBride's career high, 7.8. So Laporta's average is a half yard better than McBride's career best.
61:19Touchdown rate. Sam Laporta scored a touchdown on 7.9% of his targets.
61:23Trey McBride last year was his career high, 6.5%.
61:25Fantasy points per target, 2.05 for his career for Sam Laporta.
61:29Last year was Trey McBride's best at 1.87. Wow.
61:31Yeah. If he gets, if he gets Trey McBride's volume, he's tight end one.
61:35He probably won't because of Munra St. Brown's there, but I do think that he could have the 120 targets that he saw as a rookie.
61:43And when he was, by the way, tight end one.
61:46And Jameson Williams? The thing I think is really interesting with him versus the rookies is he was better than all of the rookies as a rookie.
61:54And he was better than all of the rookies last year.
61:57I think except for maybe Fannin, or maybe he was better than them in terms of fantasy points per game.
62:03Overall, he was better than all three, but that's without Acer statting.
62:07Yeah. No, he was right. He was, he was tight end seven.
62:10On 5.4 targets per game, by the way. Yeah.
62:13Right. And in his rookie year, his, his, his best year by far, Jameson Williams was a complete non-factor.
62:19But yes. And I think I'm going to, I'm getting ready to leave because I have to go talk to Dan and
62:25Ben Gritch on beyond the box score. But one of Dan's questions was, can Sam Laporta take some of Jameson Williams targets?
62:32And that's completely the wrong way to frame it.
62:34When Sam Laporta is on the field, Jameson Williams has to take his targets.
62:38Last year, that was true. 2024, that was not true.
62:41Okay. Okay. At the end, certainly at the end of 2024.
62:45Okay. So if you Acer stat part of one of the three years they've played together, it was Jameson Williams targets.
62:51It's, I would say, first of all, it was half a season and they were starting to get Jameson Williams this past
62:57year is half a season 2025 for Laporta. They were starting at Jameson Williams more involved after the bi-week, even before Laporta's injury.
63:04I don't think it's as clear cut that Jameson Williams is just the third wheel here and that he can't out target.
63:11Or I think they come close. They probably have about the same amount of targets personally.
63:16And they're both going to be really good with them.
63:19And the defense probably isn't going to be that good.
63:21The defense might be awful. I think it might be awful.
63:25But you know, this is where the defense has been the last three years of Laporta's career.
63:3023rd, 7th, and 22nd. And when they were 7th, they didn't throw all that much.
63:34They threw, they were 16th in pass attempts per game.
63:37But they're not going to be there. Right? So 23rd, 22nd, and two of the last three years, the Detroit defense.
63:43We've already seen Detroit with a pretty bad defense.
63:46Could be worse, I suppose. There's one other thing that makes me a little bit nervous.
63:51And listen, I love Laporta. And I think Jameson Williams is hopefully going to get appropriately priced as a number three receiver.
63:57There's a lot of love going around for Isaac Tesla right now.
64:01Sure. And, you know, how much does he still touchdowns from Laporta?
64:04And how much does he still playing time from, or opportunities.
64:08I shouldn't say playing time, but opportunities from everybody.
64:10If they factor him in a little bit more than what we saw last year.
64:15So it's a small thing to consider. But, you know, talented player that can, you know, maybe throw another wrinkle into this
64:21Detroit offense and a problem for some of the guys that we love.
64:25All right. In the interest of transparency, the targets were similar.
64:29But the last six games of 2024, Laporta did out-target Jameson Williams.
64:32But before that, I mean, the first 11 games of 2024, he was horrible.
64:36He was the number 16 tight end per game.
64:39So there is a six-game sample size where Jameson Williams almost got close to Sam Laporta.
64:44I believe 11 games before that, Jameson Williams probably had more targets than Sam Laporta.
64:48I was looking at the last six games. I don't have that.
64:52I gotta go. Yeah, you have to go. But I don't think it's, personally, I don't think it's quite as simple as
64:58Laporta's number two and Jameson's number three. But remember, Scott Turner, the guy we just said, he sang the praises of Brock Bowers.
65:05He actually said that he thinks Jameson Williams is going to have a big year for the Lions.
65:10I think they all could have big years. I'm just a little nervous about Laporta.
65:15He has so many nothing weeks. You know, it's kind of frustrating.
65:18Round six is a fairly early pick. It's how much do you believe in Drew Petsing?
65:23And how much do you believe in the fact that he is going to not completely turn around this offense or flip
65:30it over and make it a Laporta offense? Or lean on him to the same degree that he leaned on Che McBride.
65:36Because when you look at it, it's easy to say, okay, McBride, Dave said it.
65:41I agree. He was the best pass catcher, is the best pass catcher in Arizona.
65:45Sam Laporta's not the best pass catcher in Detroit.
65:48But Petsing still had two really good receivers in Arizona.
65:51Again, maybe not to the level of what we see in Detroit.
65:54You know, because I think on paper you can make the argument pretty easily that St.
65:59Brown and Jameson Williams are better than what the Cardinals have.
66:02But he's still walking in a situation, or leaving a situation, where there were talented wide receivers.
66:07It's not like where Bowers is right now, where the receiving core's terrible.
66:11So, does he come in and it's the Stefanski system that he's been running of feature the tight end, don't use the
66:18running back as much in the passing game, etc., etc.
66:21And then we get, you know, everything sort of different from what we've been used to in Detroit.
66:26Where Laporta, let's face it, look, he's had, like you said, some frustrating weeks, or has frustrating weeks.
66:31His rookie season, it was touchdown dependent. He did a lot of other things with it.
66:36But the reason that he was tight end one was because he scored 10 touchdowns.
66:40Then we come back the second half of year two, and he sucked in the first half, scored a bunch of touchdowns
66:47in the second half when the defense fell apart.
66:50And then we had a little bit of a resurgence where we felt better about him.
66:54And then last year it was sort of up and down a little bit.
66:59So, I think the thing with Laporta is, like, if you – I think we're drafting him appropriately.
67:04I think the market is drafting him appropriately. Like, you're looking at him as a middle of the top 10 type of
67:10tight end, whether you think he's five or eight.
67:13You know, I think that's kind of appropriate for where you're looking at.
67:17So, maybe you like Pitts better, maybe you like Fannin better, maybe you like Kraft better.
67:22Like, all those guys, I think, are in that range of potential outcomes of how it's all going to finish.
67:28But I think just in the case of Laporta, like, you're seeing what he has done, and now you're attaching him to
67:34this guy who has a history of featuring the tight end as the office coordinator.
67:39And that's what you're hoping to find out if it all works out.
67:42I get it. Is there a linebacker or safety that you fear in coverage on the Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers, Cardinals?
67:49No, look, they have a good schedule. They might not have a good defense.
67:53They have maybe the best schedule. It's all systems go.
67:56Yeah. Now, they play a lot of bad teams.
67:58All right, sorry. Let's move on here. Tucker Kraft in round seven.
68:02Yeah, I think I like Kraft better than Laporta.
68:05I don't know. I mean, it might have – I'm not far off from you, but I just think the fact that
68:11there's the health issue and – Sure. The play caller there.
68:14But look, the runway is clear. Like, I'm excited about Christian Watson.
68:18I like the value of Jaden Reed and Matthew Golden.
68:21But like, what we saw from Kraft last year was like, again, could be – could have been in the discussion to
68:28be tight end three if he had finished what he started.
68:31Like, that's how good it was last season. Man, that stinking ACL.
68:34He's so good. What do you think about Kittle in round eight?
68:38Great. Love it. This is going to be like a day-by-day question.
68:41The longer he stays out and we still have the concerns about the Achilles, the less I'm going to like it.
68:48The worst-case scenario – Well, I mean, the worst-case scenario is he misses the season or he comes back late.
68:54If the scenario is he starts off the season on the pop or he's slow to get going, maybe the second half
69:00of the year is when we get Kittle back, the Kittle that we know and love.
69:05And to wait for that for a round eight pick, I don't hate that at all.
69:10I can find another tight end to help me get through the first two months of the season if it means having
69:16George Kittle waiting to go coming off my pup list.
69:19Two months? I mean, he's talking about being ready for week one.
69:23Well, if he's ready for week one, he's not going in round eight.
69:27Well, he's coming off a torn Achilles and he's 33.
69:29His ADP will jump. I just don't know how much it will jump.
69:33And again, when does he come off the pup list?
69:36Because we know most drafts are going to happen second week of August until the start of the year.
69:42So that will probably determine when that jump happens.
69:45I think the thing that you know with Kittle – look, we dealt with it last year.
69:50He got hurt, what, week two and missed four games?
69:53You know, so it's – the fear I have with Kittle from a roster construction is he's off the pup list, but he sucks.
70:00And now you're having to carry that second tight end when you don't have the luxury of stashing him in an IR spot or on your fantasy team.
70:08And so like that ramp-up period until he's Kittle, if he ever gets back to that, that's the worry there.
70:14It's like, you know, you're having to start this player who's just not very good or carrying two tight ends and then
70:20you're hamstrung a little bit once we get to bye weeks.
70:24And, you know, it's just harder to do. So if you want to avoid that headache, I get it.
70:29But the longer he's on the pup – like it's almost to your benefit, like if he starts the year on the
70:36pup list and you know you can stash him.
70:39And then, you know, you go the route that Dave, I think, is alluding to, you know, with Conkfo.
70:44Andrew's one of those guys, and you're still getting quality production there.
70:48Might even get him in round nine if that happens.
70:51So if they're both back – Later is better.
70:53If they're both going to be back by, let's say, week two, would you rather have Kraft in round seven or Kittle in round eight?
71:01Would you rather have Kraft or Kittle? They're both back in week two.
71:05Kraft. Okay, what if it's a round difference? Kraft.
71:07Okay. After that, we start to get to Travis Kelsey.
71:10I would take Kelsey over Kittle. Kelsey, we don't like Ferguson as tight end 11.
71:15Kelsey, likely, Goddard is the next group. The likely one just doesn't make sense to me.
71:19Like, I get Ferguson and what he did last year, but, like, this is what we've been waiting for for Isaiah likely.
71:26Think about all the fab that was spent on him two years ago when he was that week one guy.
71:32Like, why is the market not more in on Isaiah?
71:35Because he's let us down so many. He let us down last year.
71:39He's let us down in a situation where there was a roadblock.
71:42The roadblock is gone. Doesn't matter. He let people down, and so they remember that.
71:47They don't want to draft him. Yeah, I know.
71:49But the situation has changed much more so for likely than it has for pits.
71:54Both of them are in a better situation now than they were last year at this time.
71:59And just for clarity, just because you brought up, you don't have pits outside your top 12.
72:04He's still a number one tight end. Oh, dude, he's in my top 10.
72:08I'm just not – I totally disagree with the ADP, but I'm also pushing down a lot of tight ends.
72:14So would you rather have Kelsey or likely? Likely.
72:17Likely. I'd rather have likely than Kittle, too. But me, too.
72:20Kelsey was the number six tight end per game with Patrick Mahomes last year.
72:24Now, a stat that really concerns me, though, is he had about an 18.8% target per outrun rate.
72:29That is bad. That is a career low. And remember, Xavier Worthy wasn't himself and missed a lot of time.
72:35Rasheed Rice missed a lot of time. So he doesn't get targeted in the end zone anymore, Travis Kelsey.
72:41If he can start getting targeted – he still runs the routes there, but they never throw to him in the end zone.
72:48If he can get that back, that would be great, but I'm not counting on it.
72:53I think that's going to be Rasheed Rice territory.
72:55The target per outrun rate can't keep going down, and he's going to be 37 years old in October.
73:01But he was really good last year for fantasy, for fantasy, when Patrick Mahomes was healthy.
73:06All right. I think Rice takes away from him, and Kenneth Walker could take away from both Rice and Kelsey.
73:12Tell me if you're interested in Kincaid. He's in that sleeper discussion.
73:15You know, again, this is one of those guys where we're going to keep waiting and hoping, and this is the year,
73:22and all those same conversations that we've had. But I do think, like, when you look at some of the secondary metrics
73:28and the things that he's done, and even if you just look at when he was healthy last year, like, this is
73:35a player that can take a step forward. It's just a matter of, can he stay healthy?
73:40I do like the fact that it seems like his knee problem is not an issue right now.
73:45There's been no talk about any, you know, setbacks or anything that he dealt with last year, because last year at this
73:52time it was, okay, still working through it. We hope he's going to be healthy, blah, blah, blah.
73:57I like, so if you're looking at, you know, like the second tier tight ends that you're drafting, I would take the
74:03chances on Goddard and Okonkwo and those type of players.
74:06I think there's more upside for him than, let's say, Dolchets, just because at least there's a track record with Kincaid, and
74:13you could buy into the quarterback a little bit more.
74:16It would not be a surprise at all if he's second on the team in targets behind DJ Moore.
74:22I would still think that's probably Khalil Shakir, but again, you're looking at Kincaid's role and opportunity, and he could be the touchdown guy for the Bills.
74:30So I don't want to overvalue him in saying, like, he should be a top 12 guy, but top 15, yeah, he's in that conversation for sure.
74:38Dolchets Kincaid has never had more than five green zone or end zone targets, never had more than four green zone or end zone targets in a season.
74:46Which is crazy because he's been a touchdown-dependent fantasy tight end, so he's made a bunch of touchdowns from outside of where you're talking.
74:53He has seven career games. He's played 41 games, which, given his career and how many years he's been in the league
75:00tells you just how much time he's missed with injury.
75:02Seven career games with double-digit PPR points and no touchdowns.
75:05It's not even 20% of his games. Maybe that's good.
75:08I don't know, but that doesn't – it makes me feel like he has to score in order for you to be
75:15satisfied with what he gives you from week to week.
75:18Let's end it here. I want to talk about Kenyon Sadiq, Jawan Johnson, a rookie tight end for the Patriots.
75:24That's getting a little bit of buzz right now.
75:27Maybe a little more on Chigo Conkwo. Can TJ Hawkinson bounce back?
75:30Greg Dolcich, a little bit more. We're going to – we have another show tomorrow, so we'll do tight end leftovers tomorrow.
75:37We'll answer some of your mailbag questions. We have a mock draft that we're doing today.
75:41We can talk about that as well. But we haven't quite finished the tight end preview yet.
75:46So part two of the tight end preview, just the – I don't even know if they're going to be late-round picks.
75:53They're probably going to be free agent editions, but some of them really could make a difference, and we'll discuss them on tomorrow's show.
76:00Thanks to Dave and Jamie and Heath. Thomas and Sam are producers.
76:04I'm Adam. Thanks to you all for watching and listening.
76:07We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.
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76:16it for free on Pluto TV, where all your blockbuster favorites are landing all summer long.
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76:24Welcome to the real world. Mean Girls. Shut up.
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